WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.520 --> 00:00:07.160 It's Night Side with Dan Ray w BZY, Boston's new radio. 2 00:00:07.480 --> 00:00:10.880 All right, Al Griffith, thank you very much, and we 3 00:00:10.919 --> 00:00:15.240 are changing topics, going from rats in Boston to the 4 00:00:15.800 --> 00:00:21.480 to the more I think international story, the war that 5 00:00:21.519 --> 00:00:26.440 has broken out between Iran and Israel, and it is 6 00:00:26.920 --> 00:00:32.200 showing no signs of letting up. President Trump has suggested 7 00:00:32.280 --> 00:00:35.640 that he's going to give it about two weeks and 8 00:00:36.200 --> 00:00:39.119 it's a it's a story that a lot of people 9 00:00:39.240 --> 00:00:44.679 have viewpoints on, including my guest. My guest is Tatsu Akeda. 10 00:00:44.759 --> 00:00:47.679 He's been a guest before. He writes from amongst other places, 11 00:00:47.719 --> 00:00:52.439 sub Stack. Tatsu is an investigative journalist and analyst, A 12 00:00:52.520 --> 00:00:57.840 graduate of Carnegie Mellon UH in Pennsylvania. Tatsu, welcome back 13 00:00:57.840 --> 00:00:58.399 to Night Side. 14 00:00:58.399 --> 00:01:02.640 How are you good, Dan, Nice to talk to you again. 15 00:01:03.840 --> 00:01:04.640 Oh my pleasure. 16 00:01:04.760 --> 00:01:04.959 Now. 17 00:01:05.000 --> 00:01:08.560 So you do a newsletter, uh, and you were very 18 00:01:08.599 --> 00:01:14.120 statistically oriented, and I want to emphasize that that you're 19 00:01:14.400 --> 00:01:17.519 you're objective, you're an analyst. As a matter of fact, 20 00:01:17.599 --> 00:01:23.599 I remember last fall when you predicted that Donald Trump 21 00:01:23.640 --> 00:01:28.799 would win the electoral College and you basically picked every 22 00:01:28.879 --> 00:01:33.680 state correctly except one. There was seven so called you know, 23 00:01:33.879 --> 00:01:40.560 toss up states, battleground states, and al those seven you 24 00:01:40.680 --> 00:01:43.879 gave six to Trump, which he won, and the only 25 00:01:43.920 --> 00:01:46.680 one you missed was Michigan. I don't know there were 26 00:01:46.719 --> 00:01:49.439 too many political analysts who can say that they had 27 00:01:49.640 --> 00:01:52.959 come such a bad You're you're hitting ninety eight percent there, 28 00:01:53.680 --> 00:01:54.200 just pretty m. 29 00:01:54.239 --> 00:01:58.840 Yeah good, it was actually eight out of nine. But yeah, 30 00:01:58.879 --> 00:02:03.560 I created a Python on software program. Uh, you know, 31 00:02:03.640 --> 00:02:08.960 Python being the preferred language for data scientists, and you know, 32 00:02:09.280 --> 00:02:15.400 eleven eleven thousand lines of code and thirty statistical statistical 33 00:02:15.479 --> 00:02:23.000 methods and basically it's measuring the error within polling and 34 00:02:23.039 --> 00:02:26.560 so it's it's a little bit meta. But yeah, I was. 35 00:02:27.599 --> 00:02:29.919 I actually did have the best result for the year. 36 00:02:31.599 --> 00:02:33.919 But yeah, that was fine. I can't wait till so. 37 00:02:36.360 --> 00:02:37.599 I just want to make sure I heard you. You 38 00:02:37.639 --> 00:02:40.120 said you did have the best results. Correct. 39 00:02:41.599 --> 00:02:50.560 I beat every professional poster, you know, forecast that I 40 00:02:50.599 --> 00:02:51.159 could see. 41 00:02:51.319 --> 00:02:54.240 Sure. Well, there was one poll that was way way, 42 00:02:54.280 --> 00:02:57.280 way way off, and I'm wondering if you remember it. 43 00:02:57.360 --> 00:02:59.919 It was the Des Moines Register, which has for many 44 00:03:00.159 --> 00:03:02.439 year has been kind of a gold standard in the 45 00:03:02.560 --> 00:03:08.840 Iowa newspaper. And they made their marks because over the years, 46 00:03:08.879 --> 00:03:13.080 they've done pretty well. Polling the Iowa Caucus is going 47 00:03:13.120 --> 00:03:15.719 back as far as nineteen seventy six, maybe even before. 48 00:03:15.719 --> 00:03:18.280 I think the Iowa Caucus has actually started in seventy two. 49 00:03:18.759 --> 00:03:21.280 But they were able to pick Jimmy Carter as a 50 00:03:21.360 --> 00:03:24.639 dark horse early. And then they had this crazy poll 51 00:03:24.680 --> 00:03:30.280 which showed Harris beating Trump in Iowa something like forty 52 00:03:30.400 --> 00:03:35.919 nine to forty two. It was shocking, stunning when you 53 00:03:36.000 --> 00:03:39.280 saw that poll. Were you worried at all about your analysis? 54 00:03:39.360 --> 00:03:45.080 Because obviously if Harris had been Trump in Iowa, it 55 00:03:45.120 --> 00:03:50.000 would be mad In president today, no question about that, right. 56 00:03:50.479 --> 00:03:54.639 No, I wasn't worried. I took this as confirmation that 57 00:03:55.520 --> 00:03:59.120 most of the professionals out there were just kind of 58 00:03:59.360 --> 00:04:00.000 losing their mind. 59 00:04:00.520 --> 00:04:03.280 Yeah, for a lot of reasons, for a lot of 60 00:04:03.280 --> 00:04:05.159 reasons bases. 61 00:04:05.280 --> 00:04:09.560 So yeah, you know that's something I studiously tried to avoid. 62 00:04:09.919 --> 00:04:13.759 Okay, so let's let's talk about your your latest work. 63 00:04:15.240 --> 00:04:21.639 The headline says t L semi colon d R colon 64 00:04:22.160 --> 00:04:27.240 why Israel already lost to Iran? What is the the 65 00:04:27.240 --> 00:04:29.480 the significance of the t L d R is that 66 00:04:29.600 --> 00:04:31.079 some sort of cold that I should know. 67 00:04:32.800 --> 00:04:36.279 Yeah, so that's uh gen z speak for too long, 68 00:04:36.399 --> 00:04:42.079 didn't read. Yeah, that's actually a fiction title. 69 00:04:42.199 --> 00:04:46.199 But yeah, okay, so this is the this is the summary. Okay, 70 00:04:46.240 --> 00:04:49.199 too long, didn't read all? I get it. So, uh, 71 00:04:49.360 --> 00:04:53.560 let's let's hit some of it. Tell us what how 72 00:04:53.720 --> 00:04:58.600 can you conclude at this point? And I think you're 73 00:04:58.759 --> 00:05:03.079 I think the title is net Yahoo Trump, EU, European 74 00:05:03.199 --> 00:05:07.000 Union lost rising Lion already. I mean, this thing's about 75 00:05:07.000 --> 00:05:11.360 a week old and you're you're calling it, uh in effect, 76 00:05:11.560 --> 00:05:15.839 if not a loss for Israel and the West, is 77 00:05:15.879 --> 00:05:18.199 it a win at the same time for Iran or 78 00:05:18.240 --> 00:05:19.160 do they both lose? 79 00:05:20.800 --> 00:05:25.519 Well? I think we can. First of all, my premise 80 00:05:25.959 --> 00:05:31.519 started before the war began, Okay, so I believe that Yahoo, 81 00:05:31.959 --> 00:05:35.759 by taking the first step with the first strike, already 82 00:05:35.759 --> 00:05:41.800 lost it. But as as the confert continues, this is 83 00:05:41.839 --> 00:05:47.360 the pattern. Net Yaho goes into you know, various countries. 84 00:05:47.439 --> 00:05:51.800 He's he's fighting on seven fronts now. And let's let's 85 00:05:51.800 --> 00:05:54.600 take example of for Gaza. You know, it's it's been 86 00:05:54.600 --> 00:05:58.439 a year and a half and what has he achieved? 87 00:05:58.800 --> 00:06:03.120 You know, he's clearing victory, but has he actually met 88 00:06:03.199 --> 00:06:05.959 his initial objectives? 89 00:06:06.199 --> 00:06:10.839 Well, I think he's decimated the leadership of Gaza. He's 90 00:06:10.879 --> 00:06:14.920 done that. He's destroyed a lot of the structure of Gaza. Sadly, 91 00:06:15.040 --> 00:06:19.959 but I think, yeah, the service level is gone, it's 92 00:06:20.000 --> 00:06:21.439 like it's completely dust. 93 00:06:21.680 --> 00:06:26.199 But we're how about the tunnels, Like we still we 94 00:06:26.279 --> 00:06:31.720 still have fighting between amas, spiders and IDs and it's 95 00:06:31.800 --> 00:06:33.480 kid for tat, you know, every day. 96 00:06:33.600 --> 00:06:36.519 Still I don't know what the numbers are. I mean 97 00:06:36.639 --> 00:06:41.360 I thought that I thought they that Israel was brilliant 98 00:06:41.519 --> 00:06:46.839 in terms of the walkie talkies uh and the pager 99 00:06:47.560 --> 00:06:49.759 self exploding devices. 100 00:06:49.759 --> 00:06:51.399 They're very good at sebotage. 101 00:06:52.040 --> 00:06:53.560 Well they took up I mean, they took out the 102 00:06:53.639 --> 00:06:56.279 leadership of hesbolon right. 103 00:06:56.920 --> 00:07:02.160 Yeah, they're they're very good at you know, spycraft, stagecraft, 104 00:07:02.519 --> 00:07:06.399 whatever you want to call it. And they definitely implemented 105 00:07:06.439 --> 00:07:11.120 that in their strike initially with Iran. And that's why, 106 00:07:11.720 --> 00:07:14.360 you know, first of all, they set the stage. It's 107 00:07:14.399 --> 00:07:17.759 like we'll talk to you Sunday, you knowman, and the 108 00:07:18.839 --> 00:07:22.040 US is like, yes, we'll see you there. And then 109 00:07:22.079 --> 00:07:25.120 they attacked them on Friday, two days in advance that 110 00:07:25.240 --> 00:07:29.680 they weren't prepared, and then they planted all these drones 111 00:07:29.959 --> 00:07:36.319 throughout inside Iran to basically disabled their air defense. So 112 00:07:36.360 --> 00:07:40.240 the first night was pretty Badran as they just watched, 113 00:07:40.439 --> 00:07:44.959 you know, the jets overhead pending rockets and missiles down. 114 00:07:46.120 --> 00:07:46.879 Pretty bad night. 115 00:07:47.079 --> 00:07:49.439 They killed a lot of nuclear scientists. I think they 116 00:07:49.480 --> 00:07:53.560 got eleven or twelve of the top nuclear scientists and 117 00:07:53.680 --> 00:07:54.199 around that. 118 00:07:55.680 --> 00:07:56.079 Correct. 119 00:07:56.360 --> 00:07:59.720 Yeah, you know, however, it's done, and I'm not sure 120 00:07:59.759 --> 00:08:02.279 if they got them individually, if they knew where they lived, 121 00:08:02.959 --> 00:08:05.240 I'm unclear on that. Do you have any clarity on 122 00:08:05.600 --> 00:08:08.240 how they were able to get that many nuclear scientists. 123 00:08:09.720 --> 00:08:15.240 Well, because they weren't expecting a strike, they obviously knew 124 00:08:15.560 --> 00:08:19.040 the residences of all these scientists and around didn't move 125 00:08:19.079 --> 00:08:23.480 them into bunkers. So they killed the scientists along with 126 00:08:23.680 --> 00:08:24.439 their families. 127 00:08:25.759 --> 00:08:28.600 A military leadership, military leadership. 128 00:08:28.240 --> 00:08:29.800 Right right. 129 00:08:31.000 --> 00:08:33.399 I'm not saying they were playing fair, you know, I'm 130 00:08:33.399 --> 00:08:35.519 not saying they're playing fair. But i want to get 131 00:08:35.519 --> 00:08:38.159 to what you're concerned about, because I'm not trying to 132 00:08:38.200 --> 00:08:41.720 put you on the defensive. I think my audience knows 133 00:08:41.759 --> 00:08:45.720 that I'm pretty pro Israel, and you know, we may 134 00:08:45.720 --> 00:08:48.639 agree or disagree on that. I'm looking at your analysis here, 135 00:08:49.360 --> 00:08:52.639 UF some headline says, the math is simple explain. 136 00:08:54.440 --> 00:08:58.559 Sure. So Israel is fighting a very high tech, very 137 00:08:58.600 --> 00:09:04.360 expensive war and they're obviously the main suppliers US the US, 138 00:09:04.919 --> 00:09:09.039 and what they're doing is they're doing like a Cold 139 00:09:09.080 --> 00:09:13.120 War you know, top Gun Maverick, fighter jet kind of scenario. 140 00:09:13.600 --> 00:09:17.960 And actually it's it's really funny that like Top Gun Maverick, 141 00:09:18.120 --> 00:09:24.080 the latest Tom Cruise movie in the series pretty roughly 142 00:09:24.279 --> 00:09:28.399 resembles the scenario that's playing out today. It's like Tom 143 00:09:28.480 --> 00:09:32.279 Cruise has to go do this incredible strike between the 144 00:09:32.320 --> 00:09:36.399 mountains with you know, a fighter jet, and this team 145 00:09:36.440 --> 00:09:39.799 has to come behind him and replicate the exact same America. 146 00:09:39.919 --> 00:09:42.559 So it's like that's what they want to do today, 147 00:09:44.519 --> 00:09:47.519 but Israel's doing it much much cheaper, right, So we 148 00:09:47.559 --> 00:09:50.919 have three hundred forty jets and if you think about 149 00:09:50.919 --> 00:09:55.159 the human cost here, So the first night they flew 150 00:09:55.799 --> 00:10:01.159 two hundred sorties, right, two hundred flights, and each each 151 00:10:01.240 --> 00:10:04.480 guy has to return, and each plane has to be 152 00:10:04.559 --> 00:10:08.919 maintained each hour. The flight time requires twelve dollars of maintenance. 153 00:10:10.039 --> 00:10:13.559 And each interceptor they send up in the air to 154 00:10:13.639 --> 00:10:18.200 defend tell they the Hypha, the Negeb desert et cetera. 155 00:10:18.399 --> 00:10:23.000 Costs three to four million dollars each, right, and then 156 00:10:22.840 --> 00:10:27.279 you take a look at it on they have three 157 00:10:27.360 --> 00:10:31.639 thousand plus missiles. No one actually knows. Today Israel said, oh, 158 00:10:31.679 --> 00:10:34.919 they have actually eight thousand plus, so we're kind of worried. 159 00:10:37.039 --> 00:10:40.759 So no one knows. And they cost fraction of the 160 00:10:40.799 --> 00:10:45.200 cost one hundred thousand, half a million dollars each versus 161 00:10:45.279 --> 00:10:51.039 three to four million, right, So each each each missile 162 00:10:51.600 --> 00:10:55.919 Aron sends over and remember it's not just one interceptor 163 00:10:56.000 --> 00:11:00.080 per one missile, they send three to four per so 164 00:11:00.120 --> 00:11:03.440 they're spending you know, okay, one hundred thousand dollars missile, 165 00:11:04.200 --> 00:11:07.519 and then they're spending twelve million dollars to defend and 166 00:11:07.559 --> 00:11:14.159 they're still getting through. So it's pretty much unsustainable for Israel. 167 00:11:14.960 --> 00:11:20.000 They're they're projected. Wall Street Journal said today that they're 168 00:11:20.039 --> 00:11:23.440 going to run out of interceptors in ten to twelve days. 169 00:11:24.679 --> 00:11:30.720 If you track flight data online, you'll see the US 170 00:11:30.799 --> 00:11:37.080 is sending C seventeen globe masters to send in more 171 00:11:37.519 --> 00:11:42.080 arrow interceptors today. But you know, how long can this 172 00:11:42.120 --> 00:11:45.840 go on? For it like they literally can't build enough 173 00:11:45.919 --> 00:11:51.120 interceptors to match the pace of the missiles. So to me, 174 00:11:51.159 --> 00:11:56.759 it's simple math. And it gets worse every day as 175 00:11:56.799 --> 00:12:02.240 we notice, Iran is papering off their missile deployments. So 176 00:12:02.360 --> 00:12:05.559 the first night it was like two hundred missiles that 177 00:12:05.600 --> 00:12:07.559 went on for a couple of days. Now we're in 178 00:12:07.639 --> 00:12:12.480 day six and they're sending less and less and they're 179 00:12:12.480 --> 00:12:15.960 getting more brazen. They're actually doing the attacks during the day, 180 00:12:17.000 --> 00:12:20.000 which tells them that they're very confident they can get through, 181 00:12:20.679 --> 00:12:21.639 and they do, and. 182 00:12:21.600 --> 00:12:25.639 They're also hitting civilian areas. 183 00:12:26.080 --> 00:12:31.120 Yeah, it's collateral. They do try to stick to the 184 00:12:31.200 --> 00:12:35.840 military sites, but because Tel Aviv especially is so embedded 185 00:12:36.840 --> 00:12:39.879 with the civilian population, it just can't be helped. So 186 00:12:40.000 --> 00:12:47.720 like today, the Shroka Hospital, yes, directly in between two 187 00:12:48.080 --> 00:12:54.159 military sites and actually Soroka is a military hospital that's 188 00:12:54.320 --> 00:12:58.360 where they evacuate any idea of soldiers who get injured. 189 00:12:59.399 --> 00:13:04.320 And actually over the main entrance there's a military helicopter 190 00:13:05.679 --> 00:13:13.240 a photo of it and it says Sharooka Hospital Israel's 191 00:13:13.360 --> 00:13:14.559 medical iron Dome. 192 00:13:16.480 --> 00:13:21.360 You know it's not already there, certainly no doubt tatsoo, 193 00:13:21.360 --> 00:13:24.080 hold on for a second, I gotta break for a 194 00:13:24.159 --> 00:13:27.200 couple of commercials. Here a number of things we want 195 00:13:27.240 --> 00:13:29.279 to talk about. Those of you who are listening and 196 00:13:29.360 --> 00:13:31.720 would like to ask questions, You're more than welcome if 197 00:13:31.720 --> 00:13:35.440 you want to ask a challenging question, that's okay. I 198 00:13:35.480 --> 00:13:39.480 think it's important for us to discuss this from whatever perspective. Again, 199 00:13:39.600 --> 00:13:45.639 I remain very strongly pro Israel. I'm sympathetic to their 200 00:13:45.720 --> 00:13:48.240 circumstances for a number of reasons. I think all of 201 00:13:48.240 --> 00:13:51.759 you know that tatsu is looking at this as an analyst. 202 00:13:52.559 --> 00:13:54.879 I really haven't pressed him, nor do I intend to 203 00:13:54.919 --> 00:13:58.679 press him on what his own personal beliefs might be here, 204 00:13:58.720 --> 00:14:02.679 because he is an investigation native, a journalist, and more importantly, 205 00:14:02.720 --> 00:14:06.559 an analyst, and he does back up his his his 206 00:14:06.639 --> 00:14:10.840 assertions with evidence, which I think is what journalism is 207 00:14:10.879 --> 00:14:12.559 all about. We'll take a break if you'd like to 208 00:14:12.639 --> 00:14:15.440 join the conversation six one, seven, two, five, four ten 209 00:14:15.519 --> 00:14:18.240 thirty or six one seven, nine three one ten thirty. 210 00:14:18.240 --> 00:14:19.759 Coming right back on Nightside. 211 00:14:20.559 --> 00:14:25.519 You're on Night Side with Dan Ray ONBZ Boston's news radio. 212 00:14:28.000 --> 00:14:32.279 My guest Tatsu Akada. He writes for Substack. He's an 213 00:14:32.320 --> 00:14:37.360 investigative journalist and an analyst, and he is looking at 214 00:14:37.600 --> 00:14:42.679 what's going on overseas in Iran, in Israel, and he feels, 215 00:14:43.320 --> 00:14:44.879 I don't want to put words in your mouth, but 216 00:14:45.960 --> 00:14:51.360 I'm just to sort of simplify. You believe that Israel 217 00:14:51.559 --> 00:14:53.720 may have bitten off more than they can chew. 218 00:14:55.440 --> 00:15:01.240 Let's say I understated the matter. Okay, The primary mission, 219 00:15:01.559 --> 00:15:07.759 the primary mission objective is not achievable by Israel's military. 220 00:15:08.440 --> 00:15:11.720 We know that, right, and so that, you know, the 221 00:15:11.759 --> 00:15:15.799 New York Times today had this big piece with infographics 222 00:15:15.879 --> 00:15:19.519 and how the Americans could carry a strike with the GBS. 223 00:15:19.559 --> 00:15:26.919 It's fifty seven thirty thousand pound bomb twice through you know, 224 00:15:27.039 --> 00:15:32.440 two hundred feet of granite. And that's it's again, it's 225 00:15:32.480 --> 00:15:36.240 like top gun rappers. I can't believe, like the movies 226 00:15:36.279 --> 00:15:43.200 are real. But so yeah, the mission, even if the 227 00:15:43.279 --> 00:15:46.879 Americans chose to take it on, would be very difficult. 228 00:15:47.000 --> 00:15:50.480 It would be very risky, and it probably wouldn't work. 229 00:15:51.360 --> 00:15:56.200 It's like drill drilling through the sky through who knows 230 00:15:56.200 --> 00:16:03.120 how many meters or feet of mountain rock. So so 231 00:16:03.960 --> 00:16:10.600 decided to send it anyway, and so it's unlikely that 232 00:16:10.639 --> 00:16:14.320 he's going to achieve that mission of destroying a nuclear 233 00:16:14.440 --> 00:16:15.519 enrichment facility. 234 00:16:16.039 --> 00:16:21.480 Well, right in your article you you identified several locations 235 00:16:22.399 --> 00:16:28.240 that are critical, critical locations. Uh. And then Israel has 236 00:16:28.240 --> 00:16:33.919 tried to do damage to many of these facilities. But 237 00:16:35.440 --> 00:16:38.399 what again, I don't know how. 238 00:16:39.600 --> 00:16:41.080 It only compounds the problem. 239 00:16:41.879 --> 00:16:43.000 Tell me, why tell me, not. 240 00:16:44.519 --> 00:16:46.440 Just one facility. It's it's up to. 241 00:16:46.639 --> 00:16:49.679 Sure yeah right, oh sure right yeah, different different nuclear 242 00:16:49.720 --> 00:16:53.039 facilities and oil facilities. So I have you with four 243 00:16:53.799 --> 00:16:57.440 uh nuclear facilities. I've seen some maps would say more, 244 00:16:57.480 --> 00:17:02.360 but but that's okay for for nuclear facilities. And I 245 00:17:02.480 --> 00:17:06.799 don't know how. I guess, I guess the big prize 246 00:17:07.480 --> 00:17:11.599 is for Dow, a fuel enrichment plant, and that's the 247 00:17:11.599 --> 00:17:15.079 one that's buried deep in the in the mountains, correct 248 00:17:16.319 --> 00:17:16.680 up to. 249 00:17:17.119 --> 00:17:22.160 A half a mile. There's there's nothing. It's actually nuclear proof, 250 00:17:22.400 --> 00:17:24.880 like if you dropped a nuclear bomb on it, it 251 00:17:24.960 --> 00:17:25.559 would survive. 252 00:17:26.480 --> 00:17:26.880 Okay. 253 00:17:26.960 --> 00:17:32.480 So that's that's how it's their newest facility. And they 254 00:17:32.480 --> 00:17:37.720 built it, you know, from its inception of conception to 255 00:17:37.839 --> 00:17:39.079 be nuclear proof. 256 00:17:39.480 --> 00:17:42.039 So if net If net If Prime minister net and yeah, 257 00:17:42.039 --> 00:17:43.799 who came to you and said, look, I read your 258 00:17:43.839 --> 00:17:48.920 article on sub stack and obviously you've pointed out some 259 00:17:48.920 --> 00:17:50.960 some flaws in our game plan. To put it in 260 00:17:50.960 --> 00:17:56.799 the terms of of of a sporting event, what would 261 00:17:56.839 --> 00:17:59.880 be the best course in your mind for Israel from 262 00:17:59.880 --> 00:18:02.319 a tactical point of view, you know, put put aside 263 00:18:02.640 --> 00:18:07.839 my bias, which is pro Israel. What what would what 264 00:18:07.880 --> 00:18:12.359 would you advise him to do with this point? I mean, 265 00:18:12.400 --> 00:18:19.920 he clearly wants to inflict punishment one and to stop 266 00:18:20.359 --> 00:18:26.599 Iran's progress towards achieving a nuclear bomb. Is that an 267 00:18:26.640 --> 00:18:28.359 impossible goal in your mind? 268 00:18:30.559 --> 00:18:36.240 No, because they they've proven to have infiltrated on attounts 269 00:18:36.279 --> 00:18:42.680 before through you know, espionage, right, So ducks ned actually 270 00:18:42.880 --> 00:18:49.519 code name Olympic Games any software virus implanted and developed 271 00:18:49.519 --> 00:18:53.839 by the NSA and Unit eighty two hundreds, which is 272 00:18:53.920 --> 00:18:58.519 the counterpart of NSA and Israel. And so they managed 273 00:18:58.559 --> 00:19:07.200 to insert spyware through an air gapped technology system that 274 00:19:07.799 --> 00:19:12.279 means not even connected to any networks, right completely in isolation. 275 00:19:13.279 --> 00:19:17.039 They did some pretty fancy five stuff to get in 276 00:19:18.160 --> 00:19:22.160 and they succeeded, you know, in destroying many centric features 277 00:19:22.160 --> 00:19:27.559 before they found out what was going on. It's actually 278 00:19:27.640 --> 00:19:32.279 Israel's fault that they got found out. The NSA told 279 00:19:32.960 --> 00:19:37.240 Israel hey, like, tone it down, Like, if you keep 280 00:19:37.279 --> 00:19:40.119 destroying these centric figures at this rate, they're going to 281 00:19:40.160 --> 00:19:46.440 figure it out, right, Okay, was like whatever, bro, and 282 00:19:46.440 --> 00:19:47.559 they just went for it. 283 00:19:47.599 --> 00:19:51.519 All right. Sometimes you can be over confident, Okay, fair enough. 284 00:19:51.880 --> 00:19:58.039 So so you mentioned right, well, you mentioned some other 285 00:19:58.400 --> 00:20:01.640 I mean, they they seemed to be pretty innovative, that's 286 00:20:01.680 --> 00:20:03.319 for sure, But you mentioned some other things. 287 00:20:03.359 --> 00:20:08.720 You're talking about ut Yahoo's fatal pattern fighting seven fronts 288 00:20:08.720 --> 00:20:12.960 guys eleven Yemen, West Bank, Syria, and Iraq, and now 289 00:20:13.000 --> 00:20:17.759 are run Syria. I don't know what they're you know, 290 00:20:17.839 --> 00:20:21.839 Asade has gone, and it sounds to me I don't 291 00:20:21.880 --> 00:20:24.839 know enough about the new government that has taken over. 292 00:20:24.880 --> 00:20:27.799 I guess it's headed by some folks who used to 293 00:20:27.839 --> 00:20:32.559 be either in or associated with ISIS, which is somewhat problematical. 294 00:20:32.640 --> 00:20:38.519 But has Syria activity? Is there? Is there active fighting 295 00:20:38.559 --> 00:20:42.440 going on between Israel and Syria? 296 00:20:42.920 --> 00:20:49.319 Yes, they're there. So Jolani I can't remember his new name, 297 00:20:49.519 --> 00:20:51.920 but okay, he used to have a ten million dollar 298 00:20:52.160 --> 00:20:58.640 bounty on its head by the US government. I mean, 299 00:20:58.759 --> 00:21:03.039 I think the Western powers just wanted I saw gone, 300 00:21:03.119 --> 00:21:05.039 and so they got what they wanted and they don't 301 00:21:05.079 --> 00:21:08.759 care who took over. So it's kind of a repeat 302 00:21:08.799 --> 00:21:17.480 of you know, some of it. Yeah, yeah, yeah, So 303 00:21:18.039 --> 00:21:20.240 you know, it's it's probably gonna turn out bad for us. 304 00:21:20.440 --> 00:21:23.079 It's probably gonna backfire. I mean, everything we do in 305 00:21:23.119 --> 00:21:25.240 the in the Middle East tends to backfire. 306 00:21:25.480 --> 00:21:28.359 We don't we haven't had great results so far. I'm 307 00:21:28.359 --> 00:21:30.200 with you there, believe me. 308 00:21:31.839 --> 00:21:40.200 Yeah. So yeah, So I haven't researched very extensively Jilanie. 309 00:21:41.559 --> 00:21:45.279 Other than his background, it seems very chaotic, just like 310 00:21:45.559 --> 00:21:51.440 it is with Iraq, and it's probably worrying factions, warlords, 311 00:21:52.880 --> 00:21:58.079 a whole mix of you know, infighting amongst the Arab groups. 312 00:21:58.799 --> 00:22:02.079 Truly a coalition, is what you're telling me. That's that's 313 00:22:02.079 --> 00:22:04.799 what I think I've heard. My guest is natsu at 314 00:22:04.880 --> 00:22:09.519 Keata writes for Substack has a very interesting piece investigative 315 00:22:09.599 --> 00:22:13.640 journalist that analyst graduate of Carnegie Mellon, one of the 316 00:22:13.680 --> 00:22:18.000 smartest guys I know, and he's looking at this as 317 00:22:18.039 --> 00:22:21.960 an analyst period uh, and he has come to the 318 00:22:22.000 --> 00:22:24.960 conclusion that Israel may be in a fight that they 319 00:22:25.000 --> 00:22:28.839 cannot win, which should be of concern. Is of concern 320 00:22:28.920 --> 00:22:32.119 to me, and maybe is concerned to some of some 321 00:22:32.279 --> 00:22:34.640 of you out there. So if you like to ask 322 00:22:35.039 --> 00:22:39.160 Tatsu a question or make a comment, feel free six one, seven, two, five, four, 323 00:22:39.279 --> 00:22:41.839 ten thirty six one seven, nine, three, one ten thirty. 324 00:22:42.160 --> 00:22:44.240 Tatsu got a break for newscaster at the bottom of 325 00:22:44.279 --> 00:22:46.759 the hour, and we will be right back and uh, 326 00:22:47.160 --> 00:22:50.000 we'll dive a little deeper into this. I also want 327 00:22:50.000 --> 00:22:52.519 to find out from you where how folks can get 328 00:22:52.519 --> 00:22:55.119 your newsletter. I think it's pretty easy to access, and 329 00:22:55.160 --> 00:22:57.039 I think they'll be impressed by the work. We'll be 330 00:22:57.079 --> 00:23:00.400 back on night Side with Tatsu Keta right after the news. 331 00:23:02.119 --> 00:23:03.200 It's night Side. 332 00:23:05.559 --> 00:23:06.799 Boston's news radio. 333 00:23:07.880 --> 00:23:11.960 We're talking about Iran and Israel, a little bit of 334 00:23:11.960 --> 00:23:15.599 a different perspective here with me as my guest, Tatsu 335 00:23:16.200 --> 00:23:20.519 Kida h he has written writes for Substack. Again, the 336 00:23:20.599 --> 00:23:25.200 easiest way for individuals to follow you, Tatsu, give me 337 00:23:25.319 --> 00:23:27.640 give us a however that works. 338 00:23:29.119 --> 00:23:32.160 Yeah, I would just search for Tatsu's newsletter t A 339 00:23:32.319 --> 00:23:37.920 t s U at Substack Texas newsletter Substack. 340 00:23:38.400 --> 00:23:44.799 Okay, that's that's easy. So why do you think would 341 00:23:44.839 --> 00:23:47.400 I think you addressed this? Why do you think that 342 00:23:47.519 --> 00:23:51.119 Netanya who has decided, Uh, to go ahead with this. 343 00:23:51.359 --> 00:23:54.920 Obviously he had I assume some of the information that 344 00:23:55.559 --> 00:24:01.200 uh that that you have. What why at this moment? 345 00:24:01.680 --> 00:24:03.079 Why not wait a little while? 346 00:24:03.200 --> 00:24:08.720 What's well, this is if you follow the trajectory of 347 00:24:08.759 --> 00:24:14.079 his career ever since he was very young, and I 348 00:24:14.160 --> 00:24:17.000 believe he's raised in Brookline, right, So. 349 00:24:18.039 --> 00:24:19.599 He went he went to high school. He went to 350 00:24:19.680 --> 00:24:21.960 high school, believe it or not. I believe in Philadelphia. 351 00:24:22.000 --> 00:24:24.920 He was a classmate of the great baseball player Reggie 352 00:24:25.039 --> 00:24:28.759 Jackson and went to M I T. So he had 353 00:24:28.839 --> 00:24:32.400 some Boston roots. There's no doubt about that, right. 354 00:24:33.960 --> 00:24:38.680 I think this is his life's ambition too, just go 355 00:24:38.759 --> 00:24:43.160 out and conquer the entire Middle East. That's something that's 356 00:24:43.200 --> 00:24:48.680 not said very loudly in public, but if you look 357 00:24:48.880 --> 00:24:52.759 at his actual statements, that's what he wants to do. 358 00:24:53.519 --> 00:24:58.319 So he wants to go after Yemen, after he uh 359 00:24:59.119 --> 00:25:03.359 you know, do you knew gloriasis Iran? He's publicly stated 360 00:25:03.599 --> 00:25:07.000 like he wants to go after Pakistan, and then he 361 00:25:07.039 --> 00:25:11.519 wants to go after you know, every other country in 362 00:25:11.519 --> 00:25:12.160 the Middle East. 363 00:25:12.440 --> 00:25:15.680 Well, if he if he is, I mean they fought 364 00:25:15.759 --> 00:25:21.880 Egypt in his lifetime a couple of times that fought Jordan, 365 00:25:22.559 --> 00:25:27.680 that that fought other Arab nations. They haven't occupied, they 366 00:25:27.720 --> 00:25:33.000 were attacked. I don't know of any you know, land 367 00:25:33.039 --> 00:25:37.240 of anything. They've given land back that they conquered at 368 00:25:37.279 --> 00:25:39.839 different at different points in time. So if he really 369 00:25:39.920 --> 00:25:43.759 is a conqueror, he had, he doesn't have a really 370 00:25:43.799 --> 00:25:46.880 good track record in terms of conquering and occupying. 371 00:25:50.599 --> 00:25:54.920 I would argue differently. Tell you why Palestine, well the Palace. 372 00:25:55.000 --> 00:25:57.039 Jams wouldn't argue differently for sure. 373 00:25:57.359 --> 00:26:00.960 Right, But he also sees that as a he sees 374 00:26:01.000 --> 00:26:02.920 that as a part of Israel. You were talking about 375 00:26:03.000 --> 00:26:07.880 conquering the Middle East. He he the they have the 376 00:26:07.920 --> 00:26:10.920 goal on Heights, Yes they do, but they've given back 377 00:26:11.000 --> 00:26:14.079 parts of Gaza that they have been. 378 00:26:15.279 --> 00:26:19.759 I mean they may effectively have Jordan. They they effectively 379 00:26:19.799 --> 00:26:28.519 have Jordan. There's a there's a they're completely cooperative to Jordan, Jordan, Syria, 380 00:26:29.839 --> 00:26:36.039 even even Iraq. We're actively shooting down missiles coming from Iran, 381 00:26:36.720 --> 00:26:37.400 and that. 382 00:26:37.359 --> 00:26:39.319 Might be don't you think and again I'm not trying 383 00:26:39.359 --> 00:26:41.680 to be argumentative with because you're my friend and I 384 00:26:41.720 --> 00:26:45.799 and we can disagree. Don't you think that perhaps those 385 00:26:45.839 --> 00:26:50.960 countries who are in the region recognize that a greater 386 00:26:51.119 --> 00:26:57.119 threat exists coming from Iran than necessarily coming from Israel. 387 00:26:57.160 --> 00:26:58.960 I mean, I don't think that there's too many people 388 00:26:59.480 --> 00:27:04.440 uh in in the country shoot that you mentioned, you know, Syria, 389 00:27:04.960 --> 00:27:08.559 a raq A, Jordan, aren't. 390 00:27:08.559 --> 00:27:12.119 I don't think it's about people. I think it's about leadership. 391 00:27:12.279 --> 00:27:14.880 Leadership, well, the leaders of those countries. Yeah, I mean 392 00:27:14.920 --> 00:27:18.039 the leaders of those countries. L CC in Egypt, I 393 00:27:18.079 --> 00:27:23.039 think he probably is more comfortable uh dealing with net 394 00:27:23.119 --> 00:27:25.160 Nyahoo than he would be dealing with the with the 395 00:27:25.240 --> 00:27:26.160 Moullahs in Tehran. 396 00:27:26.400 --> 00:27:30.720 I think, yeah, that's true. 397 00:27:31.200 --> 00:27:35.240 And so I don't know that that's a conquering impulse 398 00:27:35.480 --> 00:27:39.400 from from net Yahoo. So where did I want to 399 00:27:39.400 --> 00:27:41.519 get to some phone calls? Let's let's grab some phone 400 00:27:41.519 --> 00:27:43.400 calls and then we can we can continue on with 401 00:27:43.440 --> 00:27:47.920