Speaker 1: It's Night Side with Dan Ray w BZY, Boston's new radio.
Speaker 2: All right, Al Griffith, thank you very much, and we
Speaker 2: are changing topics, going from rats in Boston to the
Speaker 2: to the more I think international story, the war that
Speaker 2: has broken out between Iran and Israel, and it is
Speaker 2: showing no signs of letting up. President Trump has suggested
Speaker 2: that he's going to give it about two weeks and
Speaker 2: it's a it's a story that a lot of people
Speaker 2: have viewpoints on, including my guest. My guest is Tatsu Akeda.
Speaker 2: He's been a guest before. He writes from amongst other places,
Speaker 2: sub Stack. Tatsu is an investigative journalist and analyst, A
Speaker 2: graduate of Carnegie Mellon UH in Pennsylvania. Tatsu, welcome back
Speaker 2: to Night Side.
Speaker 3: How are you good, Dan, Nice to talk to you again.
Speaker 2: Oh my pleasure.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 2: So you do a newsletter, uh, and you were very
Speaker 2: statistically oriented, and I want to emphasize that that you're
Speaker 2: you're objective, you're an analyst. As a matter of fact,
Speaker 2: I remember last fall when you predicted that Donald Trump
Speaker 2: would win the electoral College and you basically picked every
Speaker 2: state correctly except one. There was seven so called you know,
Speaker 2: toss up states, battleground states, and al those seven you
Speaker 2: gave six to Trump, which he won, and the only
Speaker 2: one you missed was Michigan. I don't know there were
Speaker 2: too many political analysts who can say that they had
Speaker 2: come such a bad You're you're hitting ninety eight percent there,
Speaker 2: just pretty m.
Speaker 3: Yeah good, it was actually eight out of nine. But yeah,
Speaker 3: I created a Python on software program. Uh, you know,
Speaker 3: Python being the preferred language for data scientists, and you know,
Speaker 3: eleven eleven thousand lines of code and thirty statistical statistical
Speaker 3: methods and basically it's measuring the error within polling and
Speaker 3: so it's it's a little bit meta. But yeah, I was.
Speaker 3: I actually did have the best result for the year.
Speaker 3: But yeah, that was fine. I can't wait till so.
Speaker 2: I just want to make sure I heard you. You
Speaker 2: said you did have the best results. Correct.
Speaker 3: I beat every professional poster, you know, forecast that I
Speaker 3: could see.
Speaker 2: Sure. Well, there was one poll that was way way,
Speaker 2: way way off, and I'm wondering if you remember it.
Speaker 2: It was the Des Moines Register, which has for many
Speaker 2: year has been kind of a gold standard in the
Speaker 2: Iowa newspaper. And they made their marks because over the years,
Speaker 2: they've done pretty well. Polling the Iowa Caucus is going
Speaker 2: back as far as nineteen seventy six, maybe even before.
Speaker 2: I think the Iowa Caucus has actually started in seventy two.
Speaker 2: But they were able to pick Jimmy Carter as a
Speaker 2: dark horse early. And then they had this crazy poll
Speaker 2: which showed Harris beating Trump in Iowa something like forty
Speaker 2: nine to forty two. It was shocking, stunning when you
Speaker 2: saw that poll. Were you worried at all about your analysis?
Speaker 2: Because obviously if Harris had been Trump in Iowa, it
Speaker 2: would be mad In president today, no question about that, right.
Speaker 3: No, I wasn't worried. I took this as confirmation that
Speaker 3: most of the professionals out there were just kind of
Speaker 3: losing their mind.
Speaker 2: Yeah, for a lot of reasons, for a lot of
Speaker 2: reasons bases.
Speaker 3: So yeah, you know that's something I studiously tried to avoid.
Speaker 2: Okay, so let's let's talk about your your latest work.
Speaker 2: The headline says t L semi colon d R colon
Speaker 2: why Israel already lost to Iran? What is the the
Speaker 2: the significance of the t L d R is that
Speaker 2: some sort of cold that I should know.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so that's uh gen z speak for too long,
Speaker 3: didn't read. Yeah, that's actually a fiction title.
Speaker 2: But yeah, okay, so this is the this is the summary. Okay,
Speaker 2: too long, didn't read all? I get it. So, uh,
Speaker 2: let's let's hit some of it. Tell us what how
Speaker 2: can you conclude at this point? And I think you're
Speaker 2: I think the title is net Yahoo Trump, EU, European
Speaker 2: Union lost rising Lion already. I mean, this thing's about
Speaker 2: a week old and you're you're calling it, uh in effect,
Speaker 2: if not a loss for Israel and the West, is
Speaker 2: it a win at the same time for Iran or
Speaker 2: do they both lose?
Speaker 3: Well? I think we can. First of all, my premise
Speaker 3: started before the war began, Okay, so I believe that Yahoo,
Speaker 3: by taking the first step with the first strike, already
Speaker 3: lost it. But as as the confert continues, this is
Speaker 3: the pattern. Net Yaho goes into you know, various countries.
Speaker 3: He's he's fighting on seven fronts now. And let's let's
Speaker 3: take example of for Gaza. You know, it's it's been
Speaker 3: a year and a half and what has he achieved?
Speaker 3: You know, he's clearing victory, but has he actually met
Speaker 3: his initial objectives?
Speaker 2: Well, I think he's decimated the leadership of Gaza. He's
Speaker 2: done that. He's destroyed a lot of the structure of Gaza. Sadly,
Speaker 2: but I think, yeah, the service level is gone, it's
Speaker 2: like it's completely dust.
Speaker 3: But we're how about the tunnels, Like we still we
Speaker 3: still have fighting between amas, spiders and IDs and it's
Speaker 3: kid for tat, you know, every day.
Speaker 2: Still I don't know what the numbers are. I mean
Speaker 2: I thought that I thought they that Israel was brilliant
Speaker 2: in terms of the walkie talkies uh and the pager
Speaker 2: self exploding devices.
Speaker 3: They're very good at sebotage.
Speaker 2: Well they took up I mean, they took out the
Speaker 2: leadership of hesbolon right.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're they're very good at you know, spycraft, stagecraft,
Speaker 3: whatever you want to call it. And they definitely implemented
Speaker 3: that in their strike initially with Iran. And that's why,
Speaker 3: you know, first of all, they set the stage. It's
Speaker 3: like we'll talk to you Sunday, you knowman, and the
Speaker 3: US is like, yes, we'll see you there. And then
Speaker 3: they attacked them on Friday, two days in advance that
Speaker 3: they weren't prepared, and then they planted all these drones
Speaker 3: throughout inside Iran to basically disabled their air defense. So
Speaker 3: the first night was pretty Badran as they just watched,
Speaker 3: you know, the jets overhead pending rockets and missiles down.
Speaker 3: Pretty bad night.
Speaker 2: They killed a lot of nuclear scientists. I think they
Speaker 2: got eleven or twelve of the top nuclear scientists and
Speaker 2: around that.
Speaker 3: Correct.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, however, it's done, and I'm not sure
Speaker 2: if they got them individually, if they knew where they lived,
Speaker 2: I'm unclear on that. Do you have any clarity on
Speaker 2: how they were able to get that many nuclear scientists.
Speaker 3: Well, because they weren't expecting a strike, they obviously knew
Speaker 3: the residences of all these scientists and around didn't move
Speaker 3: them into bunkers. So they killed the scientists along with
Speaker 3: their families.
Speaker 2: A military leadership, military leadership.
Speaker 3: Right right.
Speaker 2: I'm not saying they were playing fair, you know, I'm
Speaker 2: not saying they're playing fair. But i want to get
Speaker 2: to what you're concerned about, because I'm not trying to
Speaker 2: put you on the defensive. I think my audience knows
Speaker 2: that I'm pretty pro Israel, and you know, we may
Speaker 2: agree or disagree on that. I'm looking at your analysis here,
Speaker 2: UF some headline says, the math is simple explain.
Speaker 3: Sure. So Israel is fighting a very high tech, very
Speaker 3: expensive war and they're obviously the main suppliers US the US,
Speaker 3: and what they're doing is they're doing like a Cold
Speaker 3: War you know, top Gun Maverick, fighter jet kind of scenario.
Speaker 3: And actually it's it's really funny that like Top Gun Maverick,
Speaker 3: the latest Tom Cruise movie in the series pretty roughly
Speaker 3: resembles the scenario that's playing out today. It's like Tom
Speaker 3: Cruise has to go do this incredible strike between the
Speaker 3: mountains with you know, a fighter jet, and this team
Speaker 3: has to come behind him and replicate the exact same America.
Speaker 3: So it's like that's what they want to do today,
Speaker 3: but Israel's doing it much much cheaper, right, So we
Speaker 3: have three hundred forty jets and if you think about
Speaker 3: the human cost here, So the first night they flew
Speaker 3: two hundred sorties, right, two hundred flights, and each each
Speaker 3: guy has to return, and each plane has to be
Speaker 3: maintained each hour. The flight time requires twelve dollars of maintenance.
Speaker 3: And each interceptor they send up in the air to
Speaker 3: defend tell they the Hypha, the Negeb desert et cetera.
Speaker 3: Costs three to four million dollars each, right, and then
Speaker 3: you take a look at it on they have three
Speaker 3: thousand plus missiles. No one actually knows. Today Israel said, oh,
Speaker 3: they have actually eight thousand plus, so we're kind of worried.
Speaker 3: So no one knows. And they cost fraction of the
Speaker 3: cost one hundred thousand, half a million dollars each versus
Speaker 3: three to four million, right, So each each each missile
Speaker 3: Aron sends over and remember it's not just one interceptor
Speaker 3: per one missile, they send three to four per so
Speaker 3: they're spending you know, okay, one hundred thousand dollars missile,
Speaker 3: and then they're spending twelve million dollars to defend and
Speaker 3: they're still getting through. So it's pretty much unsustainable for Israel.
Speaker 3: They're they're projected. Wall Street Journal said today that they're
Speaker 3: going to run out of interceptors in ten to twelve days.
Speaker 3: If you track flight data online, you'll see the US
Speaker 3: is sending C seventeen globe masters to send in more
Speaker 3: arrow interceptors today. But you know, how long can this
Speaker 3: go on? For it like they literally can't build enough
Speaker 3: interceptors to match the pace of the missiles. So to me,
Speaker 3: it's simple math. And it gets worse every day as
Speaker 3: we notice, Iran is papering off their missile deployments. So
Speaker 3: the first night it was like two hundred missiles that
Speaker 3: went on for a couple of days. Now we're in
Speaker 3: day six and they're sending less and less and they're
Speaker 3: getting more brazen. They're actually doing the attacks during the day,
Speaker 3: which tells them that they're very confident they can get through,
Speaker 3: and they do, and.
Speaker 2: They're also hitting civilian areas.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's collateral. They do try to stick to the
Speaker 3: military sites, but because Tel Aviv especially is so embedded
Speaker 3: with the civilian population, it just can't be helped. So
Speaker 3: like today, the Shroka Hospital, yes, directly in between two
Speaker 3: military sites and actually Soroka is a military hospital that's
Speaker 3: where they evacuate any idea of soldiers who get injured.
Speaker 3: And actually over the main entrance there's a military helicopter
Speaker 3: a photo of it and it says Sharooka Hospital Israel's
Speaker 3: medical iron Dome.
Speaker 2: You know it's not already there, certainly no doubt tatsoo,
Speaker 2: hold on for a second, I gotta break for a
Speaker 2: couple of commercials. Here a number of things we want
Speaker 2: to talk about. Those of you who are listening and
Speaker 2: would like to ask questions, You're more than welcome if
Speaker 2: you want to ask a challenging question, that's okay. I
Speaker 2: think it's important for us to discuss this from whatever perspective. Again,
Speaker 2: I remain very strongly pro Israel. I'm sympathetic to their
Speaker 2: circumstances for a number of reasons. I think all of
Speaker 2: you know that tatsu is looking at this as an analyst.
Speaker 2: I really haven't pressed him, nor do I intend to
Speaker 2: press him on what his own personal beliefs might be here,
Speaker 2: because he is an investigation native, a journalist, and more importantly,
Speaker 2: an analyst, and he does back up his his his
Speaker 2: assertions with evidence, which I think is what journalism is
Speaker 2: all about. We'll take a break if you'd like to
Speaker 2: join the conversation six one, seven, two, five, four ten
Speaker 2: thirty or six one seven, nine three one ten thirty.
Speaker 2: Coming right back on Nightside.
Speaker 1: You're on Night Side with Dan Ray ONBZ Boston's news radio.
Speaker 2: My guest Tatsu Akada. He writes for Substack. He's an
Speaker 2: investigative journalist and an analyst, and he is looking at
Speaker 2: what's going on overseas in Iran, in Israel, and he feels,
Speaker 2: I don't want to put words in your mouth, but
Speaker 2: I'm just to sort of simplify. You believe that Israel
Speaker 2: may have bitten off more than they can chew.
Speaker 3: Let's say I understated the matter. Okay, The primary mission,
Speaker 3: the primary mission objective is not achievable by Israel's military.
Speaker 3: We know that, right, and so that, you know, the
Speaker 3: New York Times today had this big piece with infographics
Speaker 3: and how the Americans could carry a strike with the GBS.
Speaker 3: It's fifty seven thirty thousand pound bomb twice through you know,
Speaker 3: two hundred feet of granite. And that's it's again, it's
Speaker 3: like top gun rappers. I can't believe, like the movies
Speaker 3: are real. But so yeah, the mission, even if the
Speaker 3: Americans chose to take it on, would be very difficult.
Speaker 3: It would be very risky, and it probably wouldn't work.
Speaker 3: It's like drill drilling through the sky through who knows
Speaker 3: how many meters or feet of mountain rock. So so
Speaker 3: decided to send it anyway, and so it's unlikely that
Speaker 3: he's going to achieve that mission of destroying a nuclear
Speaker 3: enrichment facility.
Speaker 2: Well, right in your article you you identified several locations
Speaker 2: that are critical, critical locations. Uh. And then Israel has
Speaker 2: tried to do damage to many of these facilities. But
Speaker 2: what again, I don't know how.
Speaker 3: It only compounds the problem.
Speaker 2: Tell me, why tell me, not.
Speaker 3: Just one facility. It's it's up to.
Speaker 2: Sure yeah right, oh sure right yeah, different different nuclear
Speaker 2: facilities and oil facilities. So I have you with four
Speaker 2: uh nuclear facilities. I've seen some maps would say more,
Speaker 2: but but that's okay for for nuclear facilities. And I
Speaker 2: don't know how. I guess, I guess the big prize
Speaker 2: is for Dow, a fuel enrichment plant, and that's the
Speaker 2: one that's buried deep in the in the mountains, correct
Speaker 2: up to.
Speaker 3: A half a mile. There's there's nothing. It's actually nuclear proof,
Speaker 3: like if you dropped a nuclear bomb on it, it
Speaker 3: would survive.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 3: So that's that's how it's their newest facility. And they
Speaker 3: built it, you know, from its inception of conception to
Speaker 3: be nuclear proof.
Speaker 2: So if net If net If Prime minister net and yeah,
Speaker 2: who came to you and said, look, I read your
Speaker 2: article on sub stack and obviously you've pointed out some
Speaker 2: some flaws in our game plan. To put it in
Speaker 2: the terms of of of a sporting event, what would
Speaker 2: be the best course in your mind for Israel from
Speaker 2: a tactical point of view, you know, put put aside
Speaker 2: my bias, which is pro Israel. What what would what
Speaker 2: would you advise him to do with this point? I mean,
Speaker 2: he clearly wants to inflict punishment one and to stop
Speaker 2: Iran's progress towards achieving a nuclear bomb. Is that an
Speaker 2: impossible goal in your mind?
Speaker 3: No, because they they've proven to have infiltrated on attounts
Speaker 3: before through you know, espionage, right, So ducks ned actually
Speaker 3: code name Olympic Games any software virus implanted and developed
Speaker 3: by the NSA and Unit eighty two hundreds, which is
Speaker 3: the counterpart of NSA and Israel. And so they managed
Speaker 3: to insert spyware through an air gapped technology system that
Speaker 3: means not even connected to any networks, right completely in isolation.
Speaker 3: They did some pretty fancy five stuff to get in
Speaker 3: and they succeeded, you know, in destroying many centric features
Speaker 3: before they found out what was going on. It's actually
Speaker 3: Israel's fault that they got found out. The NSA told
Speaker 3: Israel hey, like, tone it down, Like, if you keep
Speaker 3: destroying these centric figures at this rate, they're going to
Speaker 3: figure it out, right, Okay, was like whatever, bro, and
Speaker 3: they just went for it.
Speaker 2: All right. Sometimes you can be over confident, Okay, fair enough.
Speaker 4: So so you mentioned right, well, you mentioned some other
Speaker 4: I mean, they they seemed to be pretty innovative, that's
Speaker 4: for sure, But you mentioned some other things.
Speaker 2: You're talking about ut Yahoo's fatal pattern fighting seven fronts
Speaker 2: guys eleven Yemen, West Bank, Syria, and Iraq, and now
Speaker 2: are run Syria. I don't know what they're you know,
Speaker 2: Asade has gone, and it sounds to me I don't
Speaker 2: know enough about the new government that has taken over.
Speaker 2: I guess it's headed by some folks who used to
Speaker 2: be either in or associated with ISIS, which is somewhat problematical.
Speaker 2: But has Syria activity? Is there? Is there active fighting
Speaker 2: going on between Israel and Syria?
Speaker 3: Yes, they're there. So Jolani I can't remember his new name,
Speaker 3: but okay, he used to have a ten million dollar
Speaker 3: bounty on its head by the US government. I mean,
Speaker 3: I think the Western powers just wanted I saw gone,
Speaker 3: and so they got what they wanted and they don't
Speaker 3: care who took over. So it's kind of a repeat
Speaker 3: of you know, some of it. Yeah, yeah, yeah, So
Speaker 3: you know, it's it's probably gonna turn out bad for us.
Speaker 3: It's probably gonna backfire. I mean, everything we do in
Speaker 3: the in the Middle East tends to backfire.
Speaker 2: We don't we haven't had great results so far. I'm
Speaker 2: with you there, believe me.
Speaker 3: Yeah. So yeah, So I haven't researched very extensively Jilanie.
Speaker 3: Other than his background, it seems very chaotic, just like
Speaker 3: it is with Iraq, and it's probably worrying factions, warlords,
Speaker 3: a whole mix of you know, infighting amongst the Arab groups.
Speaker 2: Truly a coalition, is what you're telling me. That's that's
Speaker 2: what I think I've heard. My guest is natsu at
Speaker 2: Keata writes for Substack has a very interesting piece investigative
Speaker 2: journalist that analyst graduate of Carnegie Mellon, one of the
Speaker 2: smartest guys I know, and he's looking at this as
Speaker 2: an analyst period uh, and he has come to the
Speaker 2: conclusion that Israel may be in a fight that they
Speaker 2: cannot win, which should be of concern. Is of concern
Speaker 2: to me, and maybe is concerned to some of some
Speaker 2: of you out there. So if you like to ask
Speaker 2: Tatsu a question or make a comment, feel free six one, seven, two, five, four,
Speaker 2: ten thirty six one seven, nine, three, one ten thirty.
Speaker 2: Tatsu got a break for newscaster at the bottom of
Speaker 2: the hour, and we will be right back and uh,
Speaker 2: we'll dive a little deeper into this. I also want
Speaker 2: to find out from you where how folks can get
Speaker 2: your newsletter. I think it's pretty easy to access, and
Speaker 2: I think they'll be impressed by the work. We'll be
Speaker 2: back on night Side with Tatsu Keta right after the news.
Speaker 3: It's night Side.
Speaker 1: Boston's news radio.
Speaker 2: We're talking about Iran and Israel, a little bit of
Speaker 2: a different perspective here with me as my guest, Tatsu
Speaker 2: Kida h he has written writes for Substack. Again, the
Speaker 2: easiest way for individuals to follow you, Tatsu, give me
Speaker 2: give us a however that works.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would just search for Tatsu's newsletter t A
Speaker 3: t s U at Substack Texas newsletter Substack.
Speaker 2: Okay, that's that's easy. So why do you think would
Speaker 2: I think you addressed this? Why do you think that
Speaker 2: Netanya who has decided, Uh, to go ahead with this.
Speaker 2: Obviously he had I assume some of the information that
Speaker 2: uh that that you have. What why at this moment?
Speaker 2: Why not wait a little while?
Speaker 3: What's well, this is if you follow the trajectory of
Speaker 3: his career ever since he was very young, and I
Speaker 3: believe he's raised in Brookline, right, So.
Speaker 2: He went he went to high school. He went to
Speaker 2: high school, believe it or not. I believe in Philadelphia.
Speaker 2: He was a classmate of the great baseball player Reggie
Speaker 2: Jackson and went to M I T. So he had
Speaker 2: some Boston roots. There's no doubt about that, right.
Speaker 3: I think this is his life's ambition too, just go
Speaker 3: out and conquer the entire Middle East. That's something that's
Speaker 3: not said very loudly in public, but if you look
Speaker 3: at his actual statements, that's what he wants to do.
Speaker 3: So he wants to go after Yemen, after he uh
Speaker 3: you know, do you knew gloriasis Iran? He's publicly stated
Speaker 3: like he wants to go after Pakistan, and then he
Speaker 3: wants to go after you know, every other country in
Speaker 3: the Middle East.
Speaker 2: Well, if he if he is, I mean they fought
Speaker 2: Egypt in his lifetime a couple of times that fought Jordan,
Speaker 2: that that fought other Arab nations. They haven't occupied, they
Speaker 2: were attacked. I don't know of any you know, land
Speaker 2: of anything. They've given land back that they conquered at
Speaker 2: different at different points in time. So if he really
Speaker 2: is a conqueror, he had, he doesn't have a really
Speaker 2: good track record in terms of conquering and occupying.
Speaker 3: I would argue differently. Tell you why Palestine, well the Palace.
Speaker 3: Jams wouldn't argue differently for sure.
Speaker 2: Right, But he also sees that as a he sees
Speaker 2: that as a part of Israel. You were talking about
Speaker 2: conquering the Middle East. He he the they have the
Speaker 2: goal on Heights, Yes they do, but they've given back
Speaker 2: parts of Gaza that they have been.
Speaker 3: I mean they may effectively have Jordan. They they effectively
Speaker 3: have Jordan. There's a there's a they're completely cooperative to Jordan, Jordan, Syria,
Speaker 3: even even Iraq. We're actively shooting down missiles coming from Iran,
Speaker 3: and that.
Speaker 2: Might be don't you think and again I'm not trying
Speaker 2: to be argumentative with because you're my friend and I
Speaker 2: and we can disagree. Don't you think that perhaps those
Speaker 2: countries who are in the region recognize that a greater
Speaker 2: threat exists coming from Iran than necessarily coming from Israel.
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think that there's too many people
Speaker 2: uh in in the country shoot that you mentioned, you know, Syria,
Speaker 2: a raq A, Jordan, aren't.
Speaker 3: I don't think it's about people. I think it's about leadership.
Speaker 2: Leadership, well, the leaders of those countries. Yeah, I mean
Speaker 2: the leaders of those countries. L CC in Egypt, I
Speaker 2: think he probably is more comfortable uh dealing with net
Speaker 2: Nyahoo than he would be dealing with the with the
Speaker 2: Moullahs in Tehran.
Speaker 3: I think, yeah, that's true.
Speaker 2: And so I don't know that that's a conquering impulse
Speaker 2: from from net Yahoo. So where did I want to
Speaker 2: get to some phone calls? Let's let's grab some phone
Speaker 2: calls and then we can we can continue on with
Speaker 2: our with our chat. Let's let me go to We're
Speaker 2: going to get Bill in Pennsylvania up here. Let me
Speaker 2: grab my mouse and and bring Bill up. Bill, welcome
Speaker 2: your first this hour at nightside. You're on Tatsukeda. Go
Speaker 2: right ahead. Bill. What's your comment to question?
Speaker 3: Well, my comment is that I love the journalists that
Speaker 3: are skeptical and this gentleman that you have on tonight
Speaker 3: is skeptical, and that's a good thing because if you
Speaker 3: go back to the previous wars uh over there in
Speaker 3: that area, it seems like the press in the in
Speaker 3: the old days was was cheerleaders to get us involved
Speaker 3: over there. So I'm glad to see that we got
Speaker 3: a different uh you know, uh thought process going on here.
Speaker 2: And by the way, it's a he's a pretty smart guy.
Speaker 2: So he and I may disagree, uh substantively, but I
Speaker 2: respect his intellect and I respect he puts on paper
Speaker 2: what he believes and and he backs it up with facts.
Speaker 2: Go ahead, Bill, I didn't interrupt.
Speaker 3: No, that's okay. I want to ask your guests. You know,
Speaker 3: I've been watching the news just the last couple of days. Now, okay,
Speaker 3: Now today I heard twice, once on CNN and once
Speaker 3: on MSNBC, UH people talking about that they think that
Speaker 3: the Israeli commandos will make ensure no matter what happens
Speaker 3: if they if we decide, if our president decides to
Speaker 3: go ahead and uh use the V two's and the
Speaker 3: and the bunk or buster bombs, that there will be
Speaker 3: an assessment after that attack and if need be okay,
Speaker 3: that Israeli commandos will go in there. And from what
Speaker 3: I understand from some of the life sources, unretired military
Speaker 3: that these uh Israeli, the idea of people that it
Speaker 3: would be going in have been practicing for the last
Speaker 3: year in Gaza, in the tunnels of Gaza, And that
Speaker 3: makes sense to me. That makes sense to me. But
Speaker 3: I was wondering if your guests had hurt anything like that.
Speaker 2: Well, let's let's take it one at a time. Bill,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna to catch you off. Go ahead, you want
Speaker 2: to respond to that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I don't think it's has enough commandos to
Speaker 3: do the job. So we're talking about a country of
Speaker 3: nine point five million people and how many this around house, oh,
Speaker 3: eighty five million, so that the ratio is way off
Speaker 3: and the size is way off. So Israel, you know,
Speaker 3: I don't know how large Israel is probably the size
Speaker 3: of New Jersey.
Speaker 2: It's almost it is very much the size of New
Speaker 2: Jersey and also kind of shaped like New Jersey too,
Speaker 2: by the way, right, But.
Speaker 3: They got better, better leadership than New Jersey.
Speaker 2: That's not hard. That's not hard. Go ahead.
Speaker 3: Concept Star runs roughly the size of Alaska or four
Speaker 3: times the sides of France, three times the size of Germany.
Speaker 3: It's huge. It's massive, like it covers most of the
Speaker 3: western United States. It's big. So how are a few
Speaker 3: thousand commandos gonna follow up on that there? There's no
Speaker 3: way there may be completely surrounded within hours. And how
Speaker 3: are you going to get them in there? Well? The
Speaker 3: reason why go ahead? Yeah, I just think I just
Speaker 3: think that, uh, you know that Israel has complete superiority
Speaker 3: in the air. They can do absolutely anything I want to,
Speaker 3: And I think that they could, you know, with the
Speaker 3: with their asset air assets, they could give good cover
Speaker 3: to the commando's.
Speaker 2: What is your what's your second question? You said a
Speaker 2: second point too?
Speaker 3: Well, I was just wondering if if your guests had
Speaker 3: heard anything about, you know, the commando's training in Gaza
Speaker 3: for for this scenario that had you heard any of
Speaker 3: that or no, I haven't this first time hearing it.
Speaker 3: I think if if you're basing the you know, improvement
Speaker 3: in the command as performances with the CAUSA, I wouldn't
Speaker 3: rate it very high because they didn't finish the mission,
Speaker 3: but the tunnels are still there. Yes, the leadership is degraded.
Speaker 3: I wanted to make the point earlier that maybe Hamas
Speaker 3: is not as militarily strong as uh they are g
Speaker 3: g in Iran.
Speaker 2: But.
Speaker 3: Iran is very prepared, so they they have ten people.
Speaker 3: For every leadership person that gets eliminated, they can take charge.
Speaker 3: So their willingness sacrifice, right, like, can I just make
Speaker 3: one more? One more quick quickly.
Speaker 2: Built way past my break, quickly go ahead?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just think that, uh, you know, they told
Speaker 3: us that we were going to lose fifteen to twenty
Speaker 3: thousand of our of our soldiers when we went into Iraq,
Speaker 3: and storm and Norman and his boys were had knocked
Speaker 3: that place down in about two weeks. I think it
Speaker 3: was right. Yeah, So I'm sorry, what's the point you're
Speaker 3: trying to make.
Speaker 2: Well, I think he's trying to say that that maybe
Speaker 2: the strength of the Iranian military and the loyalty of
Speaker 2: the Iranian military might be similar to the strength and
Speaker 2: the and the loyalty of US Addam Mussin's forces. I
Speaker 2: think that your.
Speaker 3: Point is actually worse. I think it's actually worse, for
Speaker 3: this really is like the an Iranian will power is
Speaker 3: unmatched in the area maybe in the world.
Speaker 2: Let us see, we certainly will see that. Thank you,
Speaker 2: thank you, thanks, I appreciate it. I got to grab
Speaker 2: a thanks I've got to grab a couple of commercials.
Speaker 2: Here'll be back with Tatsu Kata Substack writer, investigative journalist
Speaker 2: and analyst grutch It Karnegie mellon. If you really do
Speaker 2: take the time to look at what we're talking about,
Speaker 2: you could go to his Tatsu's newsletter Substack and let
Speaker 2: us let us know. We'll be back on Nightside right
Speaker 2: after this.
Speaker 1: It's Night Side with Boston's news Radio.
Speaker 2: A couple of our callers want to know. We're going
Speaker 2: to celebrate the summer solst as well. The summer solstice
Speaker 2: now is about I don't know, four minutes old. Here,
Speaker 2: we're kind of getting right to it, so we I
Speaker 2: think at this point we are definitely in summer, safe
Speaker 2: enough to say that we're in summer, and I think
Speaker 2: that the feeling is that well spring is gone, spring
Speaker 2: is gone. So happy summer, everyone. You heard it here,
Speaker 2: You heard it here. First on Nightside with Me is
Speaker 2: Tatsu the Kata. Tatsu is a investigative journalist and also
Speaker 2: a an analyst, and he is a figures a numbers guy,
Speaker 2: no doubt about that. Carnegie Mellon Carnegie Mellon Graduate. You
Speaker 2: can find his stuff at Tatsu's newsletter on substack. Pretty
Speaker 2: easy to find. I think you'll find it interesting. So, Tatsuo,
Speaker 2: based upon what we have talked about, how do you
Speaker 2: see this playing out? And I'll ask you for I
Speaker 2: know that normally you're not here to do predictions, but
Speaker 2: based upon the the facts that that you have developed
Speaker 2: and analyzed, how long does this face off, this this this, this,
Speaker 2: this war continue, how does it end? And do you
Speaker 2: think that the US, either because they want to or
Speaker 2: they have to, are going to get directly involved?
Speaker 3: Yeah, well the US has already involved, and it's just
Speaker 3: a question of degree. Comment that we that we further
Speaker 3: our commitment to Israel and they if we look at
Speaker 3: major conflicts around the world like Ukraine, like as of
Speaker 3: these engagements have stretched out longer than anyone's expected. So
Speaker 3: the problem. The problem for Israel is that they will
Speaker 3: not be able to keep up and they don't have
Speaker 3: the resources militarily, and they their weapons systems are out
Speaker 3: of date for this type of conflict. It's shocking that
Speaker 3: they don't have hypersonic missiles like Iran has the most
Speaker 3: advanced hypersonic weaponry in the world.
Speaker 2: Yeah, what is the source for that weaponry?
Speaker 3: They developed themselves. I mean some of the some of
Speaker 3: their drawn technology is inherited from the US. Accidentally, in
Speaker 3: twenty eleven they shot down the r Q belief and
Speaker 3: they retro engineered it. But you know China, China is
Speaker 3: very good with hypersonic weaponry, and so this is you know,
Speaker 3: yesterday they launched solid fuel missiles towards Israel, very effective
Speaker 3: and hype the Negev Desert. They start Microsoft's headquarters in Israel,
Speaker 3: which is supplying AI and other technology to target inside
Speaker 3: of Israel Iran. So yeah, I think this is going
Speaker 3: to go on for a while, and I think, just
Speaker 3: like with Gaza, they're going to continue to claim victory
Speaker 3: and it's not going to be exactly true. So whether
Speaker 3: you believe it or not, that's up to you as
Speaker 3: an analyst. I believe that Israel is losing. No, they
Speaker 3: don't have victory anywhere. They don't have victory in Gaza,
Speaker 3: they don't have victory in Yemen and all these other fronts.
Speaker 2: I don't know what else you can call Gaza. But
Speaker 2: but I'll leave that one for another night. I mean,
Speaker 2: I think that they have decimated hamas they had. We
Speaker 2: talked about he Lah. I don't know how you can
Speaker 2: characterize that as anything other than a victory for Israel
Speaker 2: in Lebanon.
Speaker 3: Well they you know has hesba Lah like you know,
Speaker 3: I first kind of woke up to you know, all
Speaker 3: the events and then add list in two thousand and
Speaker 3: six when they, as you say, decimated Lebanon, right, and
Speaker 3: they come back, they come back again and again.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well no, there, there there. Look, the the people
Speaker 2: they're fighting are ideologues. There's no doubt about that, and
Speaker 2: there's no question that they will come back. Hey, I
Speaker 2: got to let you run because I'm up at the
Speaker 2: eleven o'clock news. Tatsu Akada, thank you so much for
Speaker 2: joining us. Interesting perspective backed up by your analysis uh
Speaker 2: and your investigative reporting Tatsu's newsletter at substack. Thank you, Tatsu.
Speaker 2: We'll do this again and in short notice. In short order,
Speaker 2: I should.
Speaker 3: Say, okay, thank you, thank you.
Speaker 2: We'll talk to you soon. Yep, tatsu Akada, I K
Speaker 2: E D A T A T s U. Tatsu Akada.
Speaker 2: My name is Dan Ray. You don't have to spell
Speaker 2: my name. Just listen to the show. We come back.
Speaker 2: We're going to the twentieth hour, the final hour of
Speaker 2: the week. It's been a long week, uh, and I've
Speaker 2: been fighting a bit of a head cold for the
Speaker 2: last two or three nights. So I'm looking for you.
Speaker 2: It's just you and me between now and midnight, right
Speaker 2: here in WBC