1
00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:01,840
Speaker 1: One Your Life.

2
00:00:02,439 --> 00:00:05,879
Speaker 2: Welcome to the opening Line Report. Kelly Stewart here with

3
00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:10,839
Teddy Covers. We're talking all things South. That's right, finishing

4
00:00:10,919 --> 00:00:13,599
up the month of July, or excuse me, June before

5
00:00:13,599 --> 00:00:15,560
we get into July here and take the month off.

6
00:00:15,759 --> 00:00:20,480
We've got Texans, Colts, Jaguars, Titans, and then of course Falcons, Panthers.

7
00:00:20,359 --> 00:00:21,879
Speaker 3: Saints and Bucks.

8
00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:24,280
Speaker 2: Teddy, let everybody kind of know what our schedule is

9
00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:27,079
going to be here over the next month because you're

10
00:00:27,079 --> 00:00:29,480
going on vacation and I'm going to attempt to as well.

11
00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:31,719
Speaker 1: Sure it's that time of year where you have to.

12
00:00:31,839 --> 00:00:34,280
But obviously so we've done This is our fifth show

13
00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:37,079
that we've done here in the month of June. If

14
00:00:37,079 --> 00:00:40,359
you missed any of the first four, be sure check

15
00:00:40,399 --> 00:00:43,039
them out. They're archived, you know, and you can check

16
00:00:43,079 --> 00:00:45,920
them out podcast style as well. Anywhere you download your

17
00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:49,200
podcast you could listen to the audio. But we've done

18
00:00:49,759 --> 00:00:52,679
the AFC West and NFC West previews, AFC East and

19
00:00:52,799 --> 00:00:56,359
NFC East Previews, AFC NFC and North Previews, an overview,

20
00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:59,640
and then obviously today we're doing the souths the Win Report.

21
00:00:59,719 --> 00:01:03,439
My report comes out on Wednesday, July second two days

22
00:01:03,439 --> 00:01:05,799
from now. It's crunch time when it comes to decision

23
00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:08,040
making and of course writing all this stuff up. And

24
00:01:08,159 --> 00:01:10,879
after the Winter Report comes out on Wednesday. For the

25
00:01:10,879 --> 00:01:12,959
month of July, there's nothing going on, so we're not

26
00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:15,000
doing opening line reports. You know, we're not gonna waste

27
00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:18,799
anyone's time. We've done team previews as soon as the

28
00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:23,120
preseason starts. In preseason week one, I think it's the last.

29
00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:25,159
The first July I got it.

30
00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:28,120
Speaker 2: Monday August fourth is when we're gonna be starting right

31
00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:29,599
August August fourth.

32
00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:32,000
Speaker 1: Monday August fourth is the day that we will start

33
00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:34,719
the opening line report up again, and from that date

34
00:01:34,799 --> 00:01:39,719
moving forward, every Monday like clockwork eight am Pacific time

35
00:01:39,799 --> 00:01:43,920
eleven am Eastern Time, right through the Monday after the

36
00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:45,359
Street Bowl. I love to do one show the day

37
00:01:45,359 --> 00:01:46,799
after the stuper Bowl. We talk about all the props,

38
00:01:46,799 --> 00:01:49,599
we talk about next year's lines, teams were looking. You know,

39
00:01:49,599 --> 00:01:52,680
it's a show for whatever reason. I even though everyone's

40
00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:54,920
hung over the day after, I like getting up early

41
00:01:54,959 --> 00:01:59,840
and we're doing one last show. But we'll go from Monday,

42
00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,439
August fourth, after today right through the Super Bowl. Each

43
00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:06,159
and every Monday on the way to talk, YouTube channel

44
00:02:06,159 --> 00:02:07,760
and all of our media outlets.

45
00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:12,599
Speaker 2: All right, guys, let's get in here to the AFC South.

46
00:02:12,599 --> 00:02:17,159
We're gonna start off with the Houston Texans up first. Now, Teddy,

47
00:02:17,199 --> 00:02:20,560
this the team last yearst couple of years will say,

48
00:02:20,759 --> 00:02:24,400
maybe took some people by surprise. Right, We're starting to

49
00:02:24,439 --> 00:02:27,840
see some movement within them, and how we kind of

50
00:02:27,879 --> 00:02:32,800
want to see this team going forward. But currently season

51
00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:36,719
wins nine and a half, that over is even money

52
00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:40,080
under minus one, twenty one, fifteen to win the AFC South,

53
00:02:40,479 --> 00:02:43,759
seventeen to one to win the AFC, and thirty five

54
00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:47,159
to one to win the Super Bowl. Let's break down

55
00:02:47,199 --> 00:02:49,520
this Texans team and kind of get into the nitty

56
00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:51,439
gritty of what you think we're going to see here.

57
00:02:51,479 --> 00:02:53,280
Speaker 3: With CJ. Stroud in his third.

58
00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:56,159
Speaker 1: Year, sure, and with all of these team previews, I

59
00:02:56,199 --> 00:02:58,919
start with last year, the starting point from last year,

60
00:02:59,319 --> 00:03:01,280
and then we talked about what happened in the offseason.

61
00:03:01,599 --> 00:03:04,960
We talk about the schedule as well, so lots of

62
00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:07,919
different factors consider for any squad. And of course this

63
00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:11,240
is a Texas team. You mentioned it. They were bottom feeders.

64
00:03:11,439 --> 00:03:13,879
You know, they went four and thirteen and twenty twenty one,

65
00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:16,159
they went three thirteen and one in twenty twenty two.

66
00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:18,960
Cashed under bets in each of those years, although I

67
00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:20,319
think one of them was a push. They were lined

68
00:03:20,319 --> 00:03:23,080
at four wins in twenty twenty one, then as a

69
00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:25,759
six and a half win team in twenty twenty three,

70
00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:28,560
they finished ten and seven flew over the win total.

71
00:03:29,039 --> 00:03:31,479
Last year they snuck over their win total. Nine and

72
00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:34,879
a half wins was where they were aligned. Ten is

73
00:03:34,919 --> 00:03:37,599
what they cashed to mec O'Ryan's now in his third

74
00:03:37,639 --> 00:03:40,560
year as they head coach. New offensive creator Nick Kayley,

75
00:03:40,759 --> 00:03:43,360
he can only be an upgrade over the departed Bobby Slower.

76
00:03:43,919 --> 00:03:49,039
New offensive line coach coach Cole Popovich, and both Kaylee

77
00:03:49,159 --> 00:03:53,759
and pop worked for Belichick in New England, so we're expecting,

78
00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:58,039
at least from a design standpoint, Houston's offense and Houston's

79
00:03:58,039 --> 00:04:01,879
offensive line perhaps to a little bit better than it

80
00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:05,000
was a year ago. Last year, they finished plus ten

81
00:04:05,039 --> 00:04:08,439
in turnovers. That was the seventh best in the NFL. Buffalo, Pittsburgh,

82
00:04:08,479 --> 00:04:11,560
Green Bay, the Chargers, the Vikings, and the Eagles were

83
00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,159
all better. They were below average in terms of yards

84
00:04:14,159 --> 00:04:16,199
per play on offense, only five point two yards per

85
00:04:16,199 --> 00:04:18,800
play game, but they had the number four defense in

86
00:04:18,879 --> 00:04:21,839
terms of yards per play allowed five point one yards

87
00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:24,680
per play. So the defense was a big factor in

88
00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:27,879
their relative success last year, and they had the middle

89
00:04:27,879 --> 00:04:30,600
of the pack schedule last year based on My Power

90
00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:34,360
ratings the week the game was played. They weren't a

91
00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:37,319
particularly healthy team last year. Seventy five players suited up

92
00:04:37,319 --> 00:04:42,360
bottom ten in injury luck. And you know, so they

93
00:04:42,399 --> 00:04:46,199
went in the off season going, yeah, we're close, but

94
00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:48,720
last year something of a different point in terms of

95
00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:53,160
being after the breakthrough season in twenty three, twenty four

96
00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:55,360
was not a breakthrough campaign, and of course now they're

97
00:04:55,399 --> 00:04:57,480
zero to six all time. The Divisional round, another early

98
00:04:57,519 --> 00:05:01,360
exit from the postseason. So when it came to the

99
00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:04,680
off season, everyone pointed towards the officeive line for Houston

100
00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:12,360
and as an area of notable weakness. Well, from a

101
00:05:12,399 --> 00:05:15,120
pundit standpoint, everyone's looking at this offensive line going it

102
00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:18,519
looks worse, not better. They traded away Laramie Tunsel. They

103
00:05:18,519 --> 00:05:21,000
brought in some veteran editions who weren't necessarily very good

104
00:05:21,079 --> 00:05:25,000
last year, Laken Thomlinson at Ingram cam Robinson, Trent Brown,

105
00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:28,879
older guys you know, they drafted a tackle in the

106
00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:34,279
second round. That being said, there were many people who

107
00:05:34,319 --> 00:05:38,879
expected this team to really focus on offensive line in

108
00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:41,319
the off season, and it looked like the moves that

109
00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:47,759
they made weren't necessarily moves that impressed pundits. So the

110
00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:50,079
coaching is different, the personnel is going to be different.

111
00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:54,639
But what's the biggest question for Houston. It's the officsive

112
00:05:54,639 --> 00:05:57,120
line right now. Even with Titus Howard, you know, if

113
00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:59,680
he's going to move to left tackle, they're hoping that

114
00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:03,000
it's there's gonna be competition on that line this season.

115
00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:05,319
They've also got issues in terms of the receiving corps.

116
00:06:05,319 --> 00:06:07,920
You know, Steph Diggs is gone, Tank Dell's likely to

117
00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:09,360
miss the season or most of the season with a

118
00:06:09,439 --> 00:06:13,040
knee injury. That being said, still got Nico Collins. They

119
00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:17,240
brought in Christian Kirk from Jacksonville in a trade this

120
00:06:17,319 --> 00:06:19,839
past offseason, and they got a couple of rookies that

121
00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:22,639
they're counting on out of Iowa State, both out of

122
00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:26,120
Iowa State, who have the potential to bring this into

123
00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:29,920
a well rounded unit and in theory might be good.

124
00:06:30,879 --> 00:06:35,240
And defensively, look, this is a dominant defense formidable edge

125
00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:38,439
tandem and Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter sell the rankin stuff,

126
00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:40,839
the run in the middle. You know they're the best

127
00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:43,240
cornerback combo in the NFL. Derek Stingley got a ninety

128
00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:47,000
million dollars extension. See Nate Jardner c J. Gardner. Johnson

129
00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:50,079
came over from Philly in a trade and his quote

130
00:06:50,120 --> 00:06:54,240
is worth noting. Gardner Johnson's quote quote, championship or nothing.

131
00:06:54,519 --> 00:06:57,040
Didn't bring me here to win the division or the conference.

132
00:06:57,759 --> 00:07:03,360
So there's certainly high expectations for Houston. In Houston, even

133
00:07:03,399 --> 00:07:06,920
though the rest of the betting markets not so much.

134
00:07:07,399 --> 00:07:09,480
In that regard. We look at their schedule, and of

135
00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:12,160
course when we talk about schedule, there's four components talked

136
00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:15,040
about last year's strength to schedule, How deserved was their record,

137
00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:17,959
this year's strength to schedule based on this year's win

138
00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:21,600
totals and the composition of the schedule. Easy opponents early

139
00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:24,560
versus easy opponents late is a huge difference in how

140
00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:26,759
the season plays out. And of course we talk about

141
00:07:26,759 --> 00:07:30,800
rest differentials when it is a factor in this situation.

142
00:07:31,319 --> 00:07:33,600
There's not a lot of these that are coming play

143
00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:37,959
for Houston. The AFC South Faces the AFC West and

144
00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:40,399
the NFC West is their two divisions. There are three

145
00:07:40,519 --> 00:07:46,759
extra games Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Buffalo. That's an ouch when

146
00:07:46,759 --> 00:07:51,120
it comes to three tough opponents, especially compared to what

147
00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:54,720
the rest of the division has. And frankly, those three

148
00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:58,480
opponents probably keep me off the Texans over I like

149
00:07:59,079 --> 00:08:02,000
the composition the squad. I think the markets are kind

150
00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:06,120
of undervaluing Houston based on the opposite line concerns. That

151
00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:09,040
being said, for all the concerns about the opposit of line,

152
00:08:09,079 --> 00:08:11,600
it's a team that had a clear plan for what

153
00:08:11,639 --> 00:08:14,279
they wanted to do. Maybe it works out a little

154
00:08:14,319 --> 00:08:16,399
better than the pundits might like to.

155
00:08:16,319 --> 00:08:19,439
Speaker 2: Think today, I'd have to agree with you the benefit

156
00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:22,120
of playing in the AFC South helps this team the

157
00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:24,639
second best team, at least according to Vegas.

158
00:08:24,839 --> 00:08:28,120
Speaker 3: It's going to be, well, oh, this gets tough.

159
00:08:28,399 --> 00:08:30,800
Speaker 2: I'd like to say it's going to be the Indianapolis Colts,

160
00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:32,960
but they're going to say it's the Jaguars.

161
00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:35,080
Speaker 3: But we're gonna get in the Colts here. First seven

162
00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:37,600
and a half is their season win total minus one ten.

163
00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:40,440
Speaker 2: On both sides, plus three point eighty to win the

164
00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:45,120
division fifty to one. To win the AFC Wow plus

165
00:08:45,159 --> 00:08:47,639
twelve thousand to win the Super Bowl. Let's talk about

166
00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:48,799
the Indianapolis Colts.

167
00:08:48,799 --> 00:08:50,200
Speaker 3: Steady sure.

168
00:08:50,279 --> 00:08:52,159
Speaker 1: Last year ligned at eight and a half wins, they

169
00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:54,279
finished eight and nine. The year before they were lined

170
00:08:54,279 --> 00:08:57,000
at six and a half wins, they finished nine and eight.

171
00:08:57,759 --> 00:09:01,919
So seventeen and seventeen for Shane Steichen and now in

172
00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:05,399
his third year as the head coach. We have a

173
00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:08,399
situation where the owner, Jim Orse, died this past offseason.

174
00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:11,360
Now his three daughters take over. What does that mean

175
00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:13,559
He's the coach is on a little bit more of

176
00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:16,279
a hot seat. Perhaps the GM Chris Ballard I would say,

177
00:09:16,279 --> 00:09:21,600
on the hot seat, there's urgency for the Colts this year.

178
00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,039
A year ago, five point five yards per play game

179
00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:27,799
on offense middle of the pack, five point five yards

180
00:09:27,799 --> 00:09:30,919
per play allowed on defense, middle of the pack, slightly

181
00:09:30,919 --> 00:09:34,120
below average. They were number twenty four in scoring defense

182
00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:37,320
and number twenty nine in total defense, a number twenty

183
00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:42,360
five in sex so despite having DeForest Buckner a on

184
00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:46,279
the squad unblockable at times. So the defense. Even though

185
00:09:46,279 --> 00:09:48,639
the yards per play defense was okay, some of the

186
00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:51,399
other metrics were not quite so good. For that defense

187
00:09:51,759 --> 00:09:54,360
last year finished minus four in turnovers. Nothing big there,

188
00:09:54,799 --> 00:09:57,440
But here's the interesting factor. They went eight to nine

189
00:09:57,519 --> 00:10:00,000
last year under their season win total. And that came

190
00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:03,480
again I use my powering numbers on the game the

191
00:10:03,519 --> 00:10:07,120
week was played from my strength to schedule numbers. My

192
00:10:07,159 --> 00:10:09,519
strength schedule says that Indy played the third weekest schedule

193
00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:12,039
in the NFL last year. Only Miami and Washington had

194
00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:14,120
it easier. So the fact that they played such an

195
00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:17,360
easy schedule and still finished below five hundred. They were

196
00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:19,399
also healthy last year. You know, they only used sixty

197
00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:21,919
six players, number four in health in that regard, So

198
00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:25,200
they were healthy last year, They had an easy schedule

199
00:10:25,399 --> 00:10:29,080
and they were still a sub five hundred squad. A

200
00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:31,960
coaching standpoint, Jim Bob Cooter back for his third year's

201
00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:35,240
outfense creator the new d C lou Anarumo. He got

202
00:10:35,279 --> 00:10:37,960
a run out of town after a disaster defense in

203
00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:41,120
Cincinnati last year. That being said, Gus Bradley got run

204
00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:42,799
out of town in Indy. So an Arum was the

205
00:10:42,799 --> 00:10:47,120
guy they settled on as DC. You know he has

206
00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:49,679
experienced I'll give him that much. We talked about the

207
00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:52,759
offseason moves. You know they lost some key pieces on

208
00:10:52,799 --> 00:10:55,240
the office of the end defensive line. They bring in

209
00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:59,799
Daniel Jones to battle Anthony Richardson, you know, and there's

210
00:10:59,799 --> 00:11:03,279
talk Jones could start Week one, and Richardson is obviously

211
00:11:03,279 --> 00:11:05,840
the guy with the upside. These are two former first rounders.

212
00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:09,039
Richardson's a guy who indies kind of invested in now

213
00:11:09,039 --> 00:11:13,639
in his third year, fifty point six percent completions, eleven touchdowns,

214
00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:16,679
thirteen interceptions. These are his career numbers. It's now, were

215
00:11:16,759 --> 00:11:19,159
never time for this guy. And the offense is supposed

216
00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:21,759
to revolve around Jonathan Taylor if things break right. You know,

217
00:11:22,159 --> 00:11:24,360
they did lows lose two starters in the offensive line

218
00:11:24,399 --> 00:11:27,039
of thirds coming back from season ending injuries. My mind,

219
00:11:27,039 --> 00:11:29,279
this team is a lot of offensive line question marks.

220
00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:32,080
The receiving corps looks pretty good. You know, I worry

221
00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:34,840
about their depth, but Pittman downs Pierce. That's a nice

222
00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:38,279
one two three at wide receiver and depth. Team's fine

223
00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:41,759
depth depth. When they have receiving core injuries, you don't

224
00:11:41,879 --> 00:11:44,720
tend to see teams lose all their playmakers even when

225
00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:47,519
guys get hurt. Houston last year maybe an exception. They

226
00:11:47,519 --> 00:11:50,080
spend a bunch of free agent dollars to the secondary

227
00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:53,799
on defense, you know most NASA league. Cameron bid them

228
00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:59,399
the safety and Shivarious Ward as well, and of course

229
00:12:00,159 --> 00:12:02,279
to tight end Tyler Warren with the first round pick,

230
00:12:02,639 --> 00:12:05,000
and then a couple of defenders in the second and

231
00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:07,799
third rounder, Ed Rusher and a cornerback Justin Wally out

232
00:12:07,799 --> 00:12:11,759
of Minnesota. So in terms of need, there was certainly

233
00:12:11,799 --> 00:12:14,600
need on defense, and the tight end position has been

234
00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:19,080
a whole As a young QB, whether it's Jones or Richardson,

235
00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:22,000
Jones is still a young QB. They've been a successful starter.

236
00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:25,519
A good tight end is important to have. When we

237
00:12:25,519 --> 00:12:28,519
look at the schedule for this year, there's you know

238
00:12:29,159 --> 00:12:33,080
again AFC South versus AFC West and NFC West teams.

239
00:12:33,519 --> 00:12:37,799
There are three extra games Miami Pittsburgh and they play

240
00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:41,919
Atlanta in Berlin. It's not a brutal schedule off any

241
00:12:41,919 --> 00:12:45,480
stretch of the imagination. And you know, my first lean

242
00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:47,879
was under towards Indy at seven and a half. I'm

243
00:12:47,919 --> 00:12:49,679
not sure I'm going to get there. The number is

244
00:12:49,799 --> 00:12:52,799
just a little bit low for the Colts. There's upside

245
00:12:52,799 --> 00:12:55,240
for this team if things break right. There's downside if

246
00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:57,600
things don't. In my mind, the Colts one of these

247
00:12:57,600 --> 00:13:01,840
squads that if we're paying attention and see which way

248
00:13:01,879 --> 00:13:04,159
the arrow is pointing, might be able to make money

249
00:13:04,159 --> 00:13:06,759
with him once the season starts. Going in into the

250
00:13:06,799 --> 00:13:11,360
preseason expectations, they look mediocre, They're probably gonna be mediocre,

251
00:13:11,639 --> 00:13:14,080
and they might be bad, they might be good. So

252
00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:16,399
when you have those scenario, you tend to tap the

253
00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:20,879
brakes from a there's certainly urgency there, and there's certainly

254
00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:24,600
talent there, but execution wise, I do still have my

255
00:13:24,639 --> 00:13:25,960
concerns about this organization.

256
00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:29,240
Speaker 2: All right, before we get into the Jacksonville Jaguars, Teddy,

257
00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:31,879
right now, you are running a promotion save one hundred

258
00:13:31,879 --> 00:13:34,879
dollars off Teddy's NFL season pass that is good for

259
00:13:35,039 --> 00:13:38,200
one week from today through next Monday, using coupon code

260
00:13:38,399 --> 00:13:44,000
NFL one hundred. All right, Teddy, Jacksonville Jaguars, let's get

261
00:13:44,039 --> 00:13:46,759
into this team. Boy, oh boy, have they been on

262
00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:49,240
kind of well, I'll call it a roller coaster ride.

263
00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:52,759
I mentioned them also having the same season win total

264
00:13:52,799 --> 00:13:55,559
as the Colts seven and a half, but their division

265
00:13:55,600 --> 00:14:00,000
odds are significantly better plus two sixty AFC odds plus

266
00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:03,080
thirty five or thirty five to one, excuse me, and

267
00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:07,240
then eighty to one to win the Super Bowl. I

268
00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:08,919
don't know what to make of this team. I was

269
00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:11,200
betting against him a couple of years ago when I

270
00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:15,279
thought Houston was significantly better. Now, Trevor Lawrence in his

271
00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:18,440
fifth year, what are we going to see from this

272
00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:21,639
team that has had a coaching carousel as of late?

273
00:14:22,559 --> 00:14:24,159
Speaker 1: Sure, before I talk about the Jags that do you

274
00:14:24,159 --> 00:14:27,240
want to mention as you talked about that NFL promo code. Look,

275
00:14:27,559 --> 00:14:29,600
you can buy the NFL win Report. It's one O

276
00:14:29,679 --> 00:14:33,039
three and fifty two lifetime seventeen and four with the

277
00:14:33,039 --> 00:14:35,440
five percent big tickets. And I went back and looked

278
00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:38,679
by the way I had. I have had three losing

279
00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:42,159
seasons two thousand and five, twenty ten, twenty nineteen, and

280
00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:44,919
a couple years where I lost juice. Twenty seventeen, I

281
00:14:44,919 --> 00:14:46,679
went three and three, but I lost to five percent.

282
00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:49,200
I lost some juice in twenty twenty two. Not every

283
00:14:49,279 --> 00:14:54,039
year has been perfect, but one oh three and fifty

284
00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:56,720
two over a twenty four year sample size seventeen and

285
00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:59,639
four with the five percent big tickets. We won last

286
00:14:59,679 --> 00:15:02,080
year on the big tickets last year it's been a

287
00:15:02,159 --> 00:15:05,519
consistently profitable report, even though it has been dominant every year,

288
00:15:05,679 --> 00:15:07,320
and we encourage you to get on board with the report.

289
00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:09,080
It's one ninety nine. If you want to just get

290
00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:12,440
the report, it comes out on Wednesday, but the promo

291
00:15:12,519 --> 00:15:15,919
code NFL one hundred at checkout you get the report

292
00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:18,799
for free. If you want an NFL season pass. I

293
00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:20,799
expect to win in the NFL this year. I expect

294
00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:22,639
to win big in the NFL this year. And if

295
00:15:22,679 --> 00:15:24,799
you want to get on board, take one hundred bucks

296
00:15:24,799 --> 00:15:28,480
off the season package. You'll get the win Report for free,

297
00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:31,840
and you'll get every play every day, all five percents

298
00:15:31,879 --> 00:15:35,080
included from day one of the preseason right through the

299
00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:39,279
Super Bowl. Again, promo code NFL one hundred at checkout.

300
00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:43,480
I encourage you take advantage of that offer. Today we

301
00:15:43,519 --> 00:15:48,320
talk about the Jacksonville Jaguars and it's a team that

302
00:15:49,799 --> 00:15:52,919
with Trevor Lawrence, the expectations have been fairly high. And

303
00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:56,600
yet what have they got three and fourteen, nine and eight,

304
00:15:57,399 --> 00:16:00,799
nine and eight, four and thirteen over the last four seasons,

305
00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:04,559
not exactly lighting it up. Lots of change this offseason.

306
00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:08,480
New GM James Gladstone first year, first time GM. He

307
00:16:08,559 --> 00:16:11,240
worked for the Rams scouting director. He's the youngest GM

308
00:16:11,279 --> 00:16:15,080
in the league. New head coach Liam Cohen, first year,

309
00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:19,879
first time head coach. New often coinator Grant Udinsky, first year,

310
00:16:20,159 --> 00:16:23,679
first time often quittor. He's a twenty nine year old

311
00:16:23,759 --> 00:16:28,120
former Vikings assistant. Now he's often the equator under the

312
00:16:28,159 --> 00:16:32,200
age of thirty. In Jacksonville, new defense commader Anthony Tampanial.

313
00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:36,399
He was worked under Jeff Haffley in Green Bay last year,

314
00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:41,120
first year, first time d C. So a lot of

315
00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:42,559
times you get a rookie head coach, he's going to

316
00:16:42,559 --> 00:16:46,039
bring in a veteran as a veteran coach or veteran coordinator.

317
00:16:46,639 --> 00:16:49,440
That's not the way the Jags went first year, first

318
00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:55,320
time GM head coach oc DC, so that could be

319
00:16:55,360 --> 00:17:00,000
a concern. Fifteen turnovers minus fifteen and turnovers last year

320
00:17:00,039 --> 00:17:03,679
bottom four. Only Cleveland, Tennessee and the Raiders were worse

321
00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:07,759
five point two yards playing offense below average, But the

322
00:17:07,839 --> 00:17:10,400
real problem for this team last year was defensively five

323
00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:13,359
point nine yards per play allowed on defense that's ranked

324
00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:16,359
thirty one out of thirty two NFL teams. Only Carolina

325
00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:20,240
was worse. Strength of schedule a year ago near league average,

326
00:17:20,279 --> 00:17:21,960
So it wasn't like they were getting beat up at

327
00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:24,759
four and thirteen by a tough schedule. It was a

328
00:17:24,799 --> 00:17:28,200
mediocre schedule. Now they were two to nine in one

329
00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:31,799
score games. No team lost more one score games, No

330
00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:35,960
team played more one score games than the eleven that

331
00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:38,440
the Jags played, and they kept on losing them. Middle

332
00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:40,680
of the pack injury wise last year. Nothing to stand

333
00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:44,480
out in that regard. So when it comes to offseason moves,

334
00:17:44,519 --> 00:17:47,960
it's another new offense for Trevor Lawrence. They do have

335
00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:51,279
four new offensive linemen from free agency and one in

336
00:17:51,319 --> 00:17:54,640
the draft. Walker Little, the left tackle, was excellent last year.

337
00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:56,359
The rest of the line was not so much. So

338
00:17:56,599 --> 00:18:00,640
it's a revamped offensive line. Young wide receivers. You have

339
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,440
Travis Hunter, then a number two overall pick, second year

340
00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:08,119
pro Brian Thomas, the free agent edition Diami Brown from Washington.

341
00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:11,400
He's only twenty five. Depth could be a big concern

342
00:18:11,559 --> 00:18:15,519
on this receiving corps and it's still very young. And

343
00:18:15,519 --> 00:18:17,680
it's hard to love this defense. I mean, they signed

344
00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:19,680
help at a bunch of different places, but they didn't

345
00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:24,000
get anybody good necessarily. You know, they bring Hi McCarry

346
00:18:24,039 --> 00:18:27,480
on the asome line, Jordan Lewis at cornerback, Eric Murray

347
00:18:27,519 --> 00:18:32,640
at safety. You know, a lot of deals for second

348
00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:37,720
tier players at reasonable prices. In that regard schedule wise,

349
00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:42,200
AFC South faces AFC West teams and NFC West teams.

350
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:47,480
The three extra games for Jacksonville, Carolina, Cincinnati and the

351
00:18:47,559 --> 00:18:49,960
Jets compared that with what Houston's got. It's not a

352
00:18:50,039 --> 00:18:53,680
murderer's row. And one thing, you know, Trevor Lawrence, the

353
00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:55,480
league has been kind of promoting him a fair bit.

354
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:57,720
You know, the jackson have gotten their fair share of

355
00:18:57,799 --> 00:19:00,960
national TV games. Well, the league doesn't seem to care

356
00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:03,000
if they're bad this year. They have one early season

357
00:19:03,039 --> 00:19:06,000
game on Monday Night Football against Kansas City and that's

358
00:19:06,039 --> 00:19:09,519
it for TV games and for night games. When we

359
00:19:09,559 --> 00:19:11,440
look at the schedule, we talk about what happens earlier

360
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:15,680
versus what happens late. The Jacksonville Jaguars schedule down the

361
00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:20,400
stretch Tennessee, Indy Jets, Denver, Indy, Tennessee last six games,

362
00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:22,359
they get hot, they got a chance to make a

363
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:27,440
run down the stretch, but that's an if. So there's

364
00:19:27,519 --> 00:19:30,279
hope for the Jags. But this is a team that

365
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:33,000
I was coming in season with a lot of holes

366
00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:36,680
and a lot of question marks. Despite the new regime

367
00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:38,920
and the in theory top tier.

368
00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:43,640
Speaker 2: Quarterback Teddy, do Tennessee Titans fans have anything to look

369
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:45,759
forward to? I was just kind of looking at my

370
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:48,640
notes from last season, and I knew they were abysmal

371
00:19:48,759 --> 00:19:51,720
three and fourteen, But the worst part was is they were.

372
00:19:51,559 --> 00:19:55,160
Speaker 3: Two and fifteen against the spread. Week one.

373
00:19:55,319 --> 00:20:00,240
Speaker 2: They burned me against the Chicago Bears and never looked back.

374
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:04,039
Speaker 3: This is a really well, let's just get into it.

375
00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:06,960
Speaker 2: Five and a half over minus one fifty is their

376
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:09,480
season win total, plus six fifty to win the division,

377
00:20:09,799 --> 00:20:12,880
eighty to one to win the AFC, and two hundred

378
00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:16,039
to one to win the Super Bowl. What are some

379
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:19,240
positive news the Titans fans can look forward to here?

380
00:20:19,279 --> 00:20:21,680
With Will Levis in his third year, So.

381
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:25,240
Speaker 1: I'll talk about some positive news in theory when it

382
00:20:25,279 --> 00:20:27,480
comes to the offs of line at least there. But

383
00:20:27,839 --> 00:20:31,720
I'm not bullish on Tennessee. Look, this team went three

384
00:20:31,799 --> 00:20:33,759
and fourteen last year. They were lying as a six

385
00:20:33,799 --> 00:20:35,519
and a half win team. They went six and eleven

386
00:20:35,519 --> 00:20:37,039
the year before, aligned to a seven and a half

387
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:39,359
win team. They went seven and ten the year before

388
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:42,279
as a nine and a half win team, So three

389
00:20:42,319 --> 00:20:45,319
consecutive unders for the Titans over the last three years

390
00:20:45,319 --> 00:20:48,079
when it comes to their season win total. Brian Callahan,

391
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:50,720
second year head coach, he calls his own place. Dinard Wilson,

392
00:20:50,839 --> 00:20:53,480
the defense winner, also back for his second year, and

393
00:20:53,599 --> 00:20:56,000
one of the big things about bringing in Brian Callahan

394
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:57,960
was that you go, you're bringing his dad, you know,

395
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:02,039
the legendary offsive line coach, Bill Callahan. Well, the also

396
00:21:02,039 --> 00:21:05,480
the line was a disaster last year with Bill Callahan

397
00:21:05,519 --> 00:21:09,039
coaching them. We'll talk about it in a moment. Worth noting.

398
00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:13,720
New Director of Football Operations hired a new GM in

399
00:21:13,759 --> 00:21:19,720
the offseason, Mike bor Borganzi, and when the head coach Callahan,

400
00:21:19,759 --> 00:21:23,960
he's not Borgonzi's guy, So there's urgency for Tennessee. In theory,

401
00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:29,200
we'll see how the relationship matches out between these two players,

402
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:34,279
these two administrators slash coaches. But it's always a concern

403
00:21:34,519 --> 00:21:37,160
the coach got hired before the GM, the year before

404
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:41,559
the GM. Sometimes the GM doesn't necessarily take well to

405
00:21:41,599 --> 00:21:44,279
the coach. A year ago, five point er yards were

406
00:21:44,319 --> 00:21:47,640
play on offense, only five teams were worse Chicago, Cleveland,

407
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:51,279
the Giants, New England, and the Raiders worse offensively than Tennessee.

408
00:21:51,279 --> 00:21:53,480
When it comes to yards per play, they did have

409
00:21:53,559 --> 00:21:56,440
a top ten yards per play defense only five point

410
00:21:56,519 --> 00:21:58,599
two yards per play allowed, so that's certainly a positive

411
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,319
sign from a year ago their dismal record, and that's

412
00:22:01,319 --> 00:22:03,480
why they were so bad against the spread last year

413
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,240
because the wise guys kept on looking at their defense

414
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:08,519
and going, oh, their defense is good, they'll cover well.

415
00:22:08,559 --> 00:22:11,119
They also finished night in minus sixteen and turnovers a

416
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,400
year ago. Only Cleveland was worse. Strength to schedule in

417
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:16,720
twenty twenty four was right at league average, middle of

418
00:22:16,759 --> 00:22:19,400
the pack. They went two and five and one score games,

419
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:22,599
a losing record typical of bottom fears and seventy seven

420
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,920
players shut it up for Tennessee. That's bottom ten in

421
00:22:25,039 --> 00:22:28,240
terms of health and continuity. When it comes to the

422
00:22:28,279 --> 00:22:34,480
off season move well. First of all, Tennessee is not

423
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,079
a destination that players were dying to go to, so

424
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:39,759
it felt like they overpaid for some of the guys

425
00:22:40,079 --> 00:22:44,559
that they were looking for. The offensive line was a

426
00:22:45,039 --> 00:22:50,519
huge problem a year ago. Now you've got three veterans

427
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,880
Lloyd Kushenberry expected back by opening day, Dan Moore, the

428
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:59,400
big free agent guy, and then a couple of former

429
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,400
first rounders Pete Skoronski. They're drafted the first round in

430
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:05,440
twenty twenty three. JC Latham. They drafted the first round

431
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:09,720
in twenty twenty four with a legendary OL coach and

432
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:12,599
what looks like some talent on the offensive line. If

433
00:23:12,599 --> 00:23:14,200
guys are healthy and if the first round is live

434
00:23:14,279 --> 00:23:18,440
up to expectation, there's a chance that cam Ward I

435
00:23:18,519 --> 00:23:21,000
haven't mentioned it yet, that cam Ward is going to

436
00:23:21,039 --> 00:23:24,119
have a decent offsive line to throw behind. When it

437
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:27,799
comes to the skilpis and talent, look Calvin Ridley. They

438
00:23:27,839 --> 00:23:31,200
signed an aging Tyler Lockett. It's not a strong receiving unit.

439
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:35,200
There's zero quality depth and the skilpison talent here is limited.

440
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:40,119
When I'm a rebuilding squad, that's what I want. First,

441
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:44,720
fix your trenches, Second, fix your secondary, third, fix your quarterback. Fourth,

442
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,559
find some skilpus in talent. And they've at least it

443
00:23:48,559 --> 00:23:50,480
looks like they're doing it in the right order. In

444
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:56,319
that regard, you know, quarterback, offsive line defense all ahead

445
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:59,880
of Skipton talent. That said, their Skipton. Talent is weak.

446
00:24:01,039 --> 00:24:02,839
No pass rush was a real problem last year. It

447
00:24:02,839 --> 00:24:05,359
looks like a problem again in twenty five. His entire defense.

448
00:24:05,759 --> 00:24:07,559
You know, it's not like they made big moves on

449
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,640
fixing the defense. It's just hoole patching of this offseason.

450
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:14,240
Special teams were bottom tier last year. New coordinator this year,

451
00:24:14,279 --> 00:24:17,440
but nothing we can count on. This team is not

452
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,480
primed to win in twenty twenty five. They are one

453
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:25,480
of the weakest teams in the NFL, even with some

454
00:24:25,519 --> 00:24:27,880
of the signings again Dan Moore and Kevin Seidler and

455
00:24:28,319 --> 00:24:32,160
Cody Barton, Xavier Woods, you know, the handful of free agents.

456
00:24:32,519 --> 00:24:36,480
From a draft standpoint, look the last three quarterbacks drafted

457
00:24:36,519 --> 00:24:42,759
by Tennessee at Marcus Mariota, Feil, Jake Locker, Feil, Vince Young, Feil.

458
00:24:43,079 --> 00:24:46,240
Steve McNair is the last first round quarterback this team

459
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:50,759
got right. So cam Ward, a zero star prospect out

460
00:24:50,759 --> 00:24:53,880
of incarnate word, ends up in Washington State, ends up

461
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:57,720
in Miami. Now he's the number one overall pick. We'll

462
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:01,400
see how Ward. You know, hope for Ward, but you're

463
00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:04,559
talking about a rookie QB with limited skills and talent

464
00:25:04,599 --> 00:25:07,960
around him. I'm not expecting miracles in that regard. They

465
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:09,680
did have a bunch of draft choices. They got some

466
00:25:09,759 --> 00:25:11,799
nice depths in the later rounds, but this is a

467
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:15,640
roster with a lot of holes to fill. Previous GM

468
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:19,759
Morris Carthon left this roster pretty bare. From a schedule standpoint,

469
00:25:19,799 --> 00:25:23,359
AFC South teams face to AFC West and the NFC West.

470
00:25:23,599 --> 00:25:27,519
There are three extra games New England, Cleveland, New Orleans

471
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,440
as easy as it gets. And then that said, they

472
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:32,839
get the Browns in the Saints both late season. And

473
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,359
you'd rather have your week teams early when you're a

474
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:37,640
bad team, give you a little confidence early on. Perhaps

475
00:25:37,759 --> 00:25:39,440
you don't know what Cleveland or New Orleans will look

476
00:25:39,519 --> 00:25:43,119
like come December. They have a three game road trip

477
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:45,279
that starts in Week four. That's bad news for a

478
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:48,160
rookie quarterback. And of course, from e league standpoint, Tennessee

479
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:51,279
is basically invisible this year. No Monday night football, no

480
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:55,319
Sunday night football, no Thursday night football. If you're watching

481
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:57,680
National TV games only, you're not going to see the

482
00:25:57,680 --> 00:25:59,880
Titans in twenty twenty five.

483
00:26:01,039 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 3: Well that's good. The NFL took notes.

484
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:07,160
Speaker 2: We got tired of seeing the Titans on Thursday Night Football, Teddy,

485
00:26:07,279 --> 00:26:11,559
really quickly before we get into the NFC South, you

486
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:16,039
mentioned Wednesday, your report for the entire NFL season is

487
00:26:16,039 --> 00:26:18,680
going to come out. Tell everybody if they buy that report,

488
00:26:18,799 --> 00:26:19,839
what they're going to receive.

489
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:22,799
Speaker 1: So you're going to get there's a part one that

490
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:27,599
comes out on Wednesday, when applicable. I had more plays

491
00:26:27,759 --> 00:26:30,200
in the preseason after Week two or Week three, depending

492
00:26:30,799 --> 00:26:32,480
there are years that I've added plays. There are years

493
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:34,079
I have and it just depends on what the markets do.

494
00:26:34,079 --> 00:26:35,559
Is I don't want to promise I'm gonna add plays,

495
00:26:35,599 --> 00:26:38,839
but there is in theory apart two the report based

496
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:42,440
on what we see over the first of the games

497
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:47,319
in August. The report traditionally four or five, six in

498
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,720
that range. You know, I've been whittling down the short

499
00:26:50,759 --> 00:26:54,119
list for the last month and it's kind of crunch

500
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:55,640
times in which ones I'm going to use it, which

501
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:57,279
ones are going to bet, and all of that. But

502
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:00,319
in addition to the plays, the write ups bit is

503
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,160
important because you're going to find out all these little

504
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:05,319
details and nuances. You know, I spent a lot of

505
00:27:05,319 --> 00:27:07,440
time writing them up and talking about the teams and

506
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:11,359
the thought process behind it, and people use those right

507
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:14,279
ups all year long. And that's another advantage of the

508
00:27:14,279 --> 00:27:17,880
season win report when the teams. When I'm right, we're

509
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:19,839
betting on these teams and betting against these teams that

510
00:27:19,839 --> 00:27:22,880
we have in the win Report consistently, and when I'm wrong,

511
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:25,960
we notice it early and we start flipping and go

512
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:27,519
the other way on some of these squads, and that

513
00:27:27,559 --> 00:27:29,319
tends to work. You know. I know that there was

514
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,920
one year that someone I was like six wins off

515
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,039
on them, but we made a boatload and betting on

516
00:27:34,079 --> 00:27:36,000
them all year because I was so wrong and I

517
00:27:36,079 --> 00:27:41,039
saw it early. So that canon does happen. So that's

518
00:27:41,039 --> 00:27:42,440
what you get with the win Report. You know, again,

519
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:44,279
it's one ninety nine to buy straight if you want

520
00:27:44,279 --> 00:27:47,400
to buy the wind Report itself, it's free if you

521
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,599
get on board with the NFL Season Package, and obviously

522
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,799
today we have that promo code NFL one hundred. Take

523
00:27:53,799 --> 00:27:56,599
one hundred bucks off that season package and you'll get

524
00:27:56,599 --> 00:28:03,480
this win Report at noon Pacific time on Wednesday, all included.

525
00:28:03,519 --> 00:28:06,359
You know, nothing more to buy, no nonsense in that regard.

526
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:09,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, Teddy's Report is something I use every single year

527
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,839
in terms of my NFL handicapping. As you guys know,

528
00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:15,759
NFL is one of the hardest markets to be Teddy,

529
00:28:15,759 --> 00:28:17,799
give us that record just one more time.

530
00:28:18,759 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 1: So I started doing the report in two thousand and

531
00:28:21,079 --> 00:28:23,880
one and since that time, i'm one oh three and

532
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:27,720
fifty two. That counts every play every year. The five

533
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:30,759
percent big tickets are seventeen and four eighty one percent.

534
00:28:32,079 --> 00:28:33,880
The other one is what sixty five? I think a

535
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:38,000
sixty five point six sixty six percent in that range.

536
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:40,839
And it's not a short sample side. We're talking about

537
00:28:40,839 --> 00:28:43,759
twenty four years. We won. Last year we won overall,

538
00:28:43,799 --> 00:28:47,079
we won with a five percent. I expect to win

539
00:28:47,119 --> 00:28:48,960
this year. I expect if you get on board, you

540
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,720
will win this year. So you know, that's why we

541
00:28:51,799 --> 00:28:54,640
do all this work in May and June, so we'll

542
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:58,759
have an edge on the markets and an edge on

543
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:02,960
preparation when it comes to start a preseason football. I

544
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:06,599
love this stuff, you know. I got into sports betty

545
00:29:06,599 --> 00:29:08,920
because I love betting the NFL. That's how it all

546
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:10,799
started for me. Cal I know you were in college one.

547
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,599
I was an NFL guy to begin with, and I

548
00:29:13,599 --> 00:29:15,640
had some real good seasons over the years in the

549
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:21,039
NFL and this win report has been consistently profitable over

550
00:29:21,079 --> 00:29:23,799
an extended track record, and again, like I said, I

551
00:29:23,839 --> 00:29:26,880
expect to be profitable again this year. So that's what

552
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:30,920
you get. That's the record, all documented. If you feel free,

553
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,119
if you if you don't believe me, we can show

554
00:29:33,119 --> 00:29:35,759
you that they have the spreadsheet in the in the

555
00:29:35,799 --> 00:29:40,599
office with every signal release for every NFL win reports

556
00:29:40,599 --> 00:29:43,799
in two thousand and one. But that's the that's the

557
00:29:43,839 --> 00:29:45,160
take perfect.

558
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:47,799
Speaker 2: Let's get into the NFC South. We're gonna start off

559
00:29:47,839 --> 00:29:52,440
with the Atlanta Falcons currently seven and a half juice

560
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:54,759
to the over minus one forty. I think at DraftKings

561
00:29:54,799 --> 00:29:57,480
is where I'm getting most of this information. Plus two

562
00:29:57,519 --> 00:30:00,599
point fifty to win the NFC South, thirty five to

563
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:04,640
one to win the NFC, eighty to one to win

564
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:08,759
the Super Bowl. I don't know what to make of

565
00:30:08,839 --> 00:30:11,799
this Falcons team, Teddy. We've got Michael Pennix Junior in

566
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:17,200
his second year. Raheem Morris head coach. I just feel

567
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:21,359
like this team had so many opportunities to be better

568
00:30:21,359 --> 00:30:24,880
than eight to nine last year, but they just kept faltering,

569
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:28,039
particularly against the spread six ten and one.

570
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 3: They just burned their backers' money.

571
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 1: Yeah. And by the way, guys, if you like this

572
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:35,160
type of analysis, we really appreciate those likes. Thank you

573
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:38,839
so much. Just click it's done. Please leave a comment below.

574
00:30:39,079 --> 00:30:41,480
I get into the comments multiple times, even on Fourth

575
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:43,400
of July week. I'll be in the comments over the

576
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:45,839
next couple of days for sure. Let me know what

577
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:49,559
you think about these AFC and NFC South squads. Happy

578
00:30:49,599 --> 00:30:53,400
to respond and offer my take. And if you just

579
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:55,160
want to say hi, you can do that too. And

580
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:56,480
of course you haven't done. So what do we have

581
00:30:56,519 --> 00:30:59,039
two hundred thousand boop Subscribe to the Way You're Talking

582
00:30:59,039 --> 00:31:02,160
to YouTube channel, not to mention Instagram, not to mention TikTok.

583
00:31:02,599 --> 00:31:05,960
Subscribe and that we get instant alerts every time these

584
00:31:06,279 --> 00:31:12,279
videos go live. Take advantage in that regard. And of course,

585
00:31:13,839 --> 00:31:15,519
if you don't want to watch us, you can always

586
00:31:15,559 --> 00:31:19,279
download this stuff spot on all your podcast outlets. I

587
00:31:19,319 --> 00:31:21,319
don't listen to a lot of podcasts. I'm the old guy.

588
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,000
I'm just not a podcast guy. But there are guys

589
00:31:24,039 --> 00:31:27,480
who are podcast guys. Wherever you download your podcast, Way

590
00:31:27,559 --> 00:31:30,720
You Talk, Opening Line report is available. And if you

591
00:31:30,839 --> 00:31:33,359
like this show, really appreciate if you tell a friend

592
00:31:33,599 --> 00:31:35,839
you don't ask for much. Tell a friend thank you.

593
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:38,839
The Atlanta Falcons last year lined at nine and a

594
00:31:38,839 --> 00:31:40,839
half wins. They finished eight and nine. As you mentioned,

595
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,960
lots of winnable games that just fell apart down the stretch.

596
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:47,920
The year before twenty twenty three, I had Atlanta over

597
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:50,759
their win total eight and a half. They finished seven

598
00:31:50,799 --> 00:31:53,680
and ten, and it was the exact same scenario. A

599
00:31:53,799 --> 00:31:55,960
ton of games that it felt like they were supposed

600
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:58,480
to win and the fourth quarter comes around and they're

601
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:01,000
in a tight game and they couldn't get the job done.

602
00:32:01,039 --> 00:32:03,079
Seven and ten the year before that, seven and ten

603
00:32:03,119 --> 00:32:05,559
the year before that. It's been a while since the

604
00:32:05,559 --> 00:32:07,960
faculty have been good. They have made the playoffs. They

605
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:10,240
have been the playoffs since the twenty eighth to three,

606
00:32:11,559 --> 00:32:13,599
which is obviously a score that if you follow the

607
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:16,640
NFL you'll always remember. There's never been a Super Bowl

608
00:32:16,759 --> 00:32:20,519
like it. Raheem Marris back in his second year as

609
00:32:20,559 --> 00:32:24,599
the head coach, often cornator Zach Robinson returned new defense

610
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:27,880
corundor jeff Aulbrick, who worked with Morris before, and he's

611
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:30,160
been the DC for the Jets over the last four years.

612
00:32:30,319 --> 00:32:33,519
The Jets collapsed last year. Was not the defense's fault,

613
00:32:33,759 --> 00:32:36,079
or surely not as much as the offenses and the

614
00:32:36,079 --> 00:32:38,160
special teams. Not forget how many games their kicker cost

615
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:41,200
him last year. So last year number eight yards per

616
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:44,680
playoffensively five point eight yards per play, so top quarter

617
00:32:44,759 --> 00:32:47,480
tile in that regard, tied with Sincy. I had a

618
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:51,960
Washington pretty good offense, slightly below average defense at five

619
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:55,000
point five yards per play allowed minus six and turnovers

620
00:32:55,039 --> 00:32:57,920
not a big deal there. Slightly easier than average schedule

621
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:00,519
last year, you know, not crazy easy, but easier than

622
00:33:00,519 --> 00:33:03,079
averal based on my Powering numbers. The game was played,

623
00:33:03,279 --> 00:33:05,440
there were number two in health. Last year, only sixty

624
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,640
five players saw the field. They're supposed to be better,

625
00:33:08,839 --> 00:33:14,640
easier than the schedule, healthy, you know, a good offense,

626
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:19,519
and they weren't. So now the Michael Pennix ereup begins,

627
00:33:19,599 --> 00:33:21,960
and Michael Penix had three starts last year. He's essentially

628
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:23,559
a rookie. He went one and two as a starter.

629
00:33:23,599 --> 00:33:26,440
There was an asterisk there. Both losses came in overtime

630
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:30,599
when Atlanta never saw the ball. Kirk Cousins sitting cashing

631
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:32,680
a lot of stuff, taking up a lot of salary,

632
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:35,079
cap dollars. He sitting on the bench. Atlanta's hoping he'll

633
00:33:35,119 --> 00:33:37,519
be traded to the first team that has an injured quarterback.

634
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:44,279
You know sometimes that the QB can attract a QB

635
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:46,279
like Cousins, can attract a lot of attention if a

636
00:33:46,359 --> 00:33:49,680
team has a quarterback injury in August early September. That

637
00:33:49,759 --> 00:33:51,680
being said, right now, they're paying him big money to

638
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:53,359
sit on the bench, and that's never a good sign

639
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:58,000
for any roster. Jean Robinson elite running back, stret London,

640
00:33:58,279 --> 00:34:01,440
elite number one receiver. From a Skipton standpoint, there's not

641
00:34:01,519 --> 00:34:03,599
much to be excited about after that. Can we call

642
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:08,000
Kyle Pitts a bust? Yet? I can four starters return

643
00:34:08,039 --> 00:34:10,519
on the offs of line? It's a top ten unit

644
00:34:10,639 --> 00:34:14,000
potential for real. That offsive line looks good on paper.

645
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:20,760
That resigned Jake Matthews. They re signed Liam McCullum, longstaffer,

646
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:25,400
Divine Diablo, they signed as a linebacker. Re signed Mike Hughes.

647
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:28,800
You know fifth year GM Terry Fountaoh, he's on the

648
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,800
hot seat. Mars too for that matter, Mars lasted three

649
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:34,320
years at his last head coach, kicking Tampa. But that

650
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:37,400
included a ten win season in the middle that Josh

651
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,840
Freeman Magic season. Freeman never had another season close. I

652
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:44,440
actually went and looked this up last last night. Only

653
00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:47,239
threw six picks that year. He threw eighteen the year before,

654
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:49,519
twenty two the year after, and seventeen the year after that,

655
00:34:50,159 --> 00:34:53,400
and the one year he caught magic. And that's the

656
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:58,320
one year Raheem Morris had a successful head coaching situation.

657
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:01,159
They lost Grady Jared Defense. He was the leader and

658
00:35:01,199 --> 00:35:04,599
the oldest VET on this defense. Well respected guy Matthew Judon,

659
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:07,840
Justin Simmons, some high priced guys they brought in to win.

660
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:11,519
Now they're also gone from the defense. So what does

661
00:35:11,519 --> 00:35:13,800
that mean. That means they needed edge rushing. They needed

662
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:16,039
something on the defensive line. They got two in the

663
00:35:16,079 --> 00:35:22,320
first round with Jalen Walker out of Georgia and James

664
00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:25,639
Pierce out of Tennessee, plus the return of the draft

665
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:28,400
pick last year Bringlin Trice towards ACL and missed the

666
00:35:28,519 --> 00:35:31,159
entire season. They brought in Leonard Floyd in free agent,

667
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:35,800
so it's completely remade defensive front for Atlanta. The secondary

668
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:38,360
looks like the strength of the d. You know, a J.

669
00:35:38,519 --> 00:35:42,760
Turell Jesse base returned two high draft picks, Mike Hughes

670
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:45,760
as a free agent. That said, the secretary of strength

671
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:48,000
of the defense. They allowed thirty four touchdown passes last year.

672
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:52,599
Only Carolina allowed more. There is a youth movement in Atlanta.

673
00:35:52,599 --> 00:35:54,519
We talked about some of the guys, Judon and Simmons

674
00:35:54,519 --> 00:35:57,239
being gone, Grady Jarrett being gone. It feels like they

675
00:35:57,280 --> 00:36:01,679
got a lot younger this offseason and Jennison perhaps veteran leadership.

676
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:04,480
We'll see if that works out good or bad for them.

677
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:08,880
From a schedule standpoint, NFC South teams face NFC West

678
00:36:09,199 --> 00:36:14,760
and AFC East squads. There are three extra games Minnesota, Washington,

679
00:36:15,119 --> 00:36:18,320
and Indy in Berlin. Not necessarily an easy trio. They

680
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:20,360
have a Thursday night football to Sunday night and a

681
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:22,639
Monday night game, so they're showcased a little bit to

682
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:27,559
do with the earliest by possible Week five. I wanted

683
00:36:27,599 --> 00:36:30,039
to I was really considering Atlanta under I'm still considering

684
00:36:30,079 --> 00:36:32,400
Atlanta under season wins. I'm not high on this team.

685
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:37,360
That said, they have this seven week span October through

686
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:42,119
early December, Miami, New England, Indy, Carolina, New Orleans, The

687
00:36:42,199 --> 00:36:45,400
Jets Seattle. That's as easy at stretch as any team

688
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:49,079
has all year in the NFL, and it's probably gonna

689
00:36:49,159 --> 00:36:51,639
keep me off this over this under, I should say,

690
00:36:51,639 --> 00:36:55,599
But the Falcon's not a team I'm particularly high.

691
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:59,360
Speaker 2: All right, let's move along to the Carolina Panthers. I

692
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:01,920
know this is riveting stuff and this is why Teddy

693
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:04,760
saved these types of teams for last. But we can

694
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:08,199
still make money on them, Teddy. Right now, six and

695
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:10,519
a half is a season win total minus one twenty

696
00:37:10,519 --> 00:37:13,960
five to the over, four to one to win the

697
00:37:14,079 --> 00:37:16,440
NFC South, fifty to one to win the NFC, and

698
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:21,039
well plus plus twelve thousand to win the Super Bowl.

699
00:37:21,039 --> 00:37:24,760
Come on, Panthers, give me something to bet on. We

700
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:26,440
want to bet against this team. We would have bet

701
00:37:26,519 --> 00:37:29,000
on this team. This is a Carolina team that has

702
00:37:29,159 --> 00:37:33,800
just really been lackluster. Teddy five and twelve last year,

703
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:37,840
eight and nine against the spread. Bryce Young. They make

704
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,440
every single meme about him every single week on the internet,

705
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:43,440
about how small he is. There's been no major coaching changes.

706
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:45,840
What is this team going to do differently this year

707
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:47,719
than they've done in years past?

708
00:37:48,039 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 1: So, I mean, Caroline has been pretty bad this decade.

709
00:37:50,519 --> 00:37:52,719
You know, five and twelve and twenty twenty one, seven

710
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:54,960
and ten and twenty twenty two, two and fifteen and

711
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:58,280
twenty three, five and twelve. Last year, though they snuck

712
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:00,280
over their win total last year lined four and a

713
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:04,000
half wins, and that didn't look good early. They got

714
00:38:04,039 --> 00:38:06,199
hot down the stretch and maybe that stretch run for

715
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:10,239
Caroline is what Panthers fans are hoping will continue momentum

716
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:12,679
wise into this year. As you mentioned, the head coach,

717
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:15,199
the staff coaching established Larty back. Second year head coach

718
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:18,079
Dave Canals is back, you know, very positive guy. He's

719
00:38:18,119 --> 00:38:20,559
the Pete Carroll, the Pete Carroll light in that regard.

720
00:38:20,559 --> 00:38:23,079
Everything's great, We're gonna be awesome. Second year O C.

721
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:27,000
Brad Izick is back. Third year defense twitter jaeho Ivero

722
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,960
is back, and that's interesting because we're gonna talk about

723
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:32,800
this defense. Of course, you have an embarrassing owner situation

724
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:34,719
with David Tepper. You know, the team hasn't made the

725
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:38,599
playoffs since he bought them in twenty eighteen, and that's

726
00:38:38,599 --> 00:38:41,400
always a concern. Five point one yeards for playoffense last year.

727
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:44,880
Offensively last year below average, much better down the stretch

728
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:47,440
after a dismal first half that went four and five

729
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:51,039
straight up their last nine games. That said, listen to

730
00:38:51,079 --> 00:38:54,239
some of these defensive numbers. They have the worst defense

731
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:56,880
in the NFL six point zero yards per play alout

732
00:38:57,119 --> 00:38:59,760
five hundred and thirty four points, the most little points

733
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:02,920
a lot in the season ever in the history of

734
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:05,079
the league, thirty one point down that it was a

735
00:39:05,119 --> 00:39:10,880
seventeen game season. It's not worst ever for per points

736
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:13,440
per game allowed, but at the most points any team

737
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:15,440
is ever allowed ever ever ever in the season in

738
00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:17,760
the NFL history, thirty one points a game thirty one

739
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:20,480
point four close to the worst than points per game allowed.

740
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:23,639
They had allowed an NFL high thirty five touchdown pass

741
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:26,599
against them, They became only the fourth team in NFL

742
00:39:26,679 --> 00:39:31,079
history to allow three thousand rushing yards against them, and

743
00:39:31,159 --> 00:39:36,039
they brought back a vro minus five turnovers a year ago.

744
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:38,360
Good for a team with a DICE I mean it's honestly,

745
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:40,239
he's good for a team with the terrible defense and

746
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:44,079
a DICE QB situation. Minus five turnover was a positive.

747
00:39:44,079 --> 00:39:47,320
Could have been much worse. Strength to schedule last year

748
00:39:47,599 --> 00:39:49,800
one of the toughest in the NFL. Based on my numbers.

749
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:54,199
Only Cleveland, San France and Pittsburgh faced tougher opponents throughout

750
00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:55,840
the course of the weekend. Of course, they had a

751
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:57,920
ton of injuries, a ton of attrition last year. Eighty

752
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:00,920
six players saw a game time for Carolina. Kind of

753
00:40:01,199 --> 00:40:04,280
for Carolina last year, most in the NFL. Lots of

754
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:07,199
injuries for the squad, and lots of an effective play.

755
00:40:08,039 --> 00:40:10,920
We talked about the offseason, the entire offensive line returns.

756
00:40:11,199 --> 00:40:13,840
Bryce Young showed signs in the second half last year.

757
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:17,079
There's continuity with the offense. The receiving course as weak

758
00:40:17,119 --> 00:40:19,639
as any in the NFL. You know, even after making

759
00:40:19,639 --> 00:40:22,159
a number one pick on the wide receiver tight end

760
00:40:22,199 --> 00:40:24,599
room is week two. They had to overpay j C.

761
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:27,079
Horn to keep him a pro bowler on and think

762
00:40:27,079 --> 00:40:30,280
about j C Horn talked about some of the metrics

763
00:40:30,280 --> 00:40:32,039
for this defense is one of the worst in history.

764
00:40:32,119 --> 00:40:36,239
Last year. Jase Horn was a pro bowler on this defense.

765
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:40,400
So they certainly they I felt like they overpaid to

766
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,639
keep him. That said, they kept new kicker, new punter,

767
00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:47,320
special teams question marks. You know, draft wise, offseason wise,

768
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:52,239
they concentrated on defense rightfully, so Chechaun Watton, Trevon Morig.

769
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:55,559
You know, they paid a fair bit of money to

770
00:40:55,639 --> 00:40:58,159
bring in a handful of guys on that defense. Wharton

771
00:40:58,199 --> 00:41:01,480
on the defensive lind Morgan, the second Bobby Brown. They

772
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:03,119
brought it on the defensive line. And then I talked

773
00:41:03,159 --> 00:41:06,519
about obviously McMillan, the wide receiver out of Arizona with

774
00:41:06,519 --> 00:41:09,239
the first round pick, and the edge rusher with the

775
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:12,400
next two kids out of Texas A and M Mississippi,

776
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:15,760
a couple of sec edge rushers. So they paid some

777
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:18,639
attention to defense in the offseason. To put it mildly,

778
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:23,920
schedule wise, NFC South faces NFC West and AFC East teams,

779
00:41:24,119 --> 00:41:28,920
there are three extra games, not easy Dallas, Green Bay, Jacksonville.

780
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:32,320
They have one Monday night football against San France in November.

781
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:34,760
That's it for TV games, and they do have a

782
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:39,000
week fourteen by that's the last possible week. Bad news

783
00:41:39,079 --> 00:41:42,239
if they got off to a slow start. You know,

784
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:44,599
Carolina certainly doesn't look like they've turned the corner to

785
00:41:44,639 --> 00:41:47,599
become a winning team. That being said, there's a little

786
00:41:47,599 --> 00:41:51,719
bit of continuity here, and they showed signs offensively last

787
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:54,559
year being better than they were. Perhaps this year they'll

788
00:41:54,559 --> 00:41:56,800
be able to trade points with some of their opponents.

789
00:41:57,760 --> 00:41:59,360
Speaker 3: All right, so a little bit of breaking news.

790
00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:02,039
Speaker 2: I know we're kind of up against it, but Adam

791
00:42:02,079 --> 00:42:06,639
Schefter just tweeted ESPN sources Steelers traded three time All

792
00:42:06,679 --> 00:42:10,599
Pro safety safety man of Fitzpatrick to the Dolphins in

793
00:42:10,599 --> 00:42:14,599
exchange for three time All Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey.

794
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:18,119
Speaker 3: This is a rare player, four player trade.

795
00:42:18,840 --> 00:42:22,280
Speaker 2: Gonna be really interesting, Teddy, any thoughts really quickly before

796
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:23,920
we getting to the rest of the NFC South.

797
00:42:24,559 --> 00:42:27,920
Speaker 1: So I'm impressed with what Miami got for a guy

798
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:29,559
who said I'm not going to play for you anymore.

799
00:42:30,119 --> 00:42:35,360
You know, in that sense that being said, Pittsburgh gets

800
00:42:36,119 --> 00:42:41,639
an elite cornerback, makes Steelers better, and I'm not sure

801
00:42:41,679 --> 00:42:44,239
how that it makes the Dolphins better. So, you know,

802
00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:47,719
advantage in the one sense, Miami got proper value. In

803
00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:51,480
the other sense, Jalen Ramsey's you know, at this stage

804
00:42:51,519 --> 00:42:53,960
of the career, I'll take Ramsey over Fitzpatrick. So that's

805
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:54,760
my gut reaction.

806
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:58,320
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about the New Orleans Saints six

807
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:01,800
and a half plus one to the over. If you

808
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:04,960
think the States can win seven games twelve to one,

809
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:08,199
the longest odds to win the NFC South one under

810
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:11,639
twenty one to win the NFC in three hundred to

811
00:43:11,639 --> 00:43:15,880
one to win Super the Super Bowl, Sadi, I don't

812
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:17,639
know what to make of the Saints team. Let's just

813
00:43:17,880 --> 00:43:20,400
break it down for what it is. You've got Kellen

814
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:22,880
Moore in his first year as a head coach. You've

815
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:25,199
got Spencer Ratler in a second year, assuming that he's

816
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:26,559
going to be the starter here.

817
00:43:27,239 --> 00:43:28,840
Speaker 3: Break this team.

818
00:43:28,599 --> 00:43:32,639
Speaker 2: Down in terms of a season win perspective. Maybe say

819
00:43:32,679 --> 00:43:35,159
some nice things that the Saints can be looking forward to.

820
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:42,880
Speaker 1: No. So last year, the five percent big ticket was

821
00:43:43,039 --> 00:43:45,719
Saints under seven and a half wins. The first two

822
00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:48,199
weeks they looked like the best team in football, and

823
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:49,800
then they won three games. The rest of the year,

824
00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:52,760
they finished five to twelve. We catched this one in

825
00:43:53,079 --> 00:43:55,559
early to mid December with not a sweat when all

826
00:43:55,679 --> 00:43:57,960
was said and done, with that five percent big ticket

827
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:02,159
on New Orleans under and the reason that I was

828
00:44:02,159 --> 00:44:03,960
so strong on no One's been under. I knew that

829
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:06,159
they had no quality depth. This team's been up against

830
00:44:06,159 --> 00:44:08,320
its salary cap wise, and they kept kicking the can

831
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:11,079
down the road. And as soon as the injury started

832
00:44:11,159 --> 00:44:13,880
last year. It was a disaster for them. Five point

833
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:16,239
three yards woul play on offense below average, I mean

834
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:18,719
middle of the pack, but below average. Five point eight

835
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:21,039
yards will play allout on defense. All Chicago, Jacksonville and

836
00:44:21,079 --> 00:44:26,039
Carolina were worse thirtieth in total defense, thirty first in

837
00:44:26,199 --> 00:44:29,079
yards per rush allowed four point nine yards per rush. Allout.

838
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:31,880
Wasn't a turnover issue last year minus two and turnovers

839
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:34,639
nothing really there. They had a slightly easier than average

840
00:44:34,679 --> 00:44:38,119
schedule last year. Based on my Powering numbers of the week.

841
00:44:38,199 --> 00:44:41,280
The game was played two and five in one score

842
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:44,719
games a year ago. Slightly more injuries than average, seventy

843
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:47,039
four players shoot it up. The offense really got decimated.

844
00:44:47,199 --> 00:44:51,639
The defense stayed reasonably healthy the first time this year

845
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,920
since Sean Payton arrived in two thousand and six and

846
00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:58,280
signed Drew Brees as his new quarterback. That they have

847
00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:00,840
a new head coach, new QB. Same year, he talked

848
00:45:00,840 --> 00:45:02,400
about Kellen Moore and he was the Eagles offer the

849
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:04,880
coiner of last year. He's gonna call his own plays

850
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:08,559
on offense. Brandon Staley. You know, we talked about how

851
00:45:08,599 --> 00:45:10,400
a lot of times the rookie head coach going to

852
00:45:10,440 --> 00:45:13,440
bring in a veteran coordinator, Brandon Staley, the former Chargers

853
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:17,679
head coach, comes in and coaches the defense, which is,

854
00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:21,079
you know, not what we're seeing from some other squads.

855
00:45:21,199 --> 00:45:24,239
We talked about today off season moves. Look your quarterback,

856
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:27,639
Quintin May, you didn't quit in January. You didn't quit

857
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:30,519
in February. Quinin May awfully late. Derek Cart said, yeah,

858
00:45:30,559 --> 00:45:33,280
I'm not coming back. You know, it's a quarter It's

859
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:36,760
a legit quarterback battle in theory. The fortieth pick Tyler Schuck,

860
00:45:37,320 --> 00:45:38,960
and Chuck dropped as much as he did because he

861
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:41,199
was twenty six years old, all right, and he did

862
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:44,440
have three season any injuries in a very long college

863
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:47,280
career at Oregon Texas Tech in Louisville. So he's got

864
00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:49,840
an injury history and he's ancient for a rookie. That

865
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:52,840
being said, you know, he talked about it's not about upside,

866
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:54,920
it's about getting through this season, and Shook has a

867
00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:57,800
chance to win this job. Spencer Rattler was a rookie

868
00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:00,199
last year under a different coaching staff, Jay Hayner, now

869
00:46:00,199 --> 00:46:02,679
a third year pro. Ratler than Hayinter re combined oh

870
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:06,920
and seven as starters last year their skilleds from talent

871
00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:10,719
on offense, there really is Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed,

872
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:14,239
Brandon Cooks. The offensive line looks solid if Caesar ma

873
00:46:14,280 --> 00:46:17,400
Reis and Eric McCoy returned from injuries, effectively number one

874
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:19,920
pick the office of lineman Calvin Banks, Outland Trophy winner

875
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:23,599
from Texas. So they've got skilled position, they've got an

876
00:46:23,599 --> 00:46:27,719
offensive line. See if the quarterback plays okay, you know,

877
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:30,000
either way, it's going to be your rookie year inexperience

878
00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:34,239
at the QB position. But there's at least some room

879
00:46:34,679 --> 00:46:36,880
to think that the QB may be able to succeed. Now,

880
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:39,639
the defense is a whole nother question, tons of question mark,

881
00:46:39,679 --> 00:46:42,320
big schematic changes. They're switching defenses, which they were three

882
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:44,840
to four. They're counting on thirty six year old Cam

883
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:47,800
Jordan and thirty six year old to Mario Davis and

884
00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:50,599
thirty three year old Honey Badger. You know at Tyrone

885
00:46:50,599 --> 00:46:54,239
Matthew is thirteenth league in the league. You know, I

886
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:56,840
got a lot of concerns about the secondary. Marshawn Latimer

887
00:46:56,920 --> 00:47:00,159
got traded last year. Bo Paulson dave O bolted both

888
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:03,159
the Giants in free agency. You know, I like to lose,

889
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:06,199
and they bring in Chase Young as their big free

890
00:47:06,199 --> 00:47:09,480
agents signing on offense, Juwan Johnson. I guess the big

891
00:47:09,679 --> 00:47:12,000
on defense, I should say is the h rusher, Juwan

892
00:47:12,119 --> 00:47:16,679
Johnson the big free agent signing on offense, and obviously

893
00:47:16,719 --> 00:47:19,199
Banks and Shook the first two draft choices on the

894
00:47:19,239 --> 00:47:22,039
office side of football. The next four all came on

895
00:47:22,400 --> 00:47:26,280
d twenty twenty five. Schedule. NFC South teams face NFC

896
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:30,159
West and AFC East opponents. Their three extra games are easy,

897
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:33,760
the Giants relatively easy, the Giants, the Bears, and the Titans.

898
00:47:34,119 --> 00:47:38,119
They are bottom five in rest differential this year. It's

899
00:47:38,159 --> 00:47:40,360
the only team from these two divisions I'm talking about

900
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:42,760
when it comes to rest differential because it's the only

901
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:46,400
team that something stood out in that regard. Opposing teams

902
00:47:46,440 --> 00:47:50,000
have extra rest. They face three teams come off a

903
00:47:50,039 --> 00:47:52,559
bye and one team coming off a minibi after playing

904
00:47:52,559 --> 00:47:55,760
the previous Thursday. They have four two game road trips,

905
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:58,199
you know, back to back road games, which is always

906
00:47:58,199 --> 00:48:01,960
difficult for young qbs. No TV games. The schedules set

907
00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:06,119
for relevancy. That said, if they're decent, the back half

908
00:48:06,159 --> 00:48:09,800
of the schedule, they can make a run Carolina, Atlanta, Miami, Tampa, Carolina,

909
00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:12,880
the Jets, Tennessee, Atlanta the last eight games. You know,

910
00:48:13,639 --> 00:48:19,480
if New Orleans, if what is decent anyway, that's a

911
00:48:19,519 --> 00:48:22,440
stretch of opponents they could make some noise against.

912
00:48:23,119 --> 00:48:24,480
Speaker 3: All Right, we're kind of up against it.

913
00:48:24,519 --> 00:48:26,559
Speaker 2: So we got about seven or eight minutes to get

914
00:48:26,559 --> 00:48:29,559
into the Tampa Bay Bucks, the last team on our

915
00:48:29,559 --> 00:48:34,320
list for today, Teddy nine and a half wins pretty

916
00:48:34,360 --> 00:48:36,519
much minus one ten on both sides, also minus one

917
00:48:36,599 --> 00:48:38,760
ten to win the division, thirteen to one to win

918
00:48:38,760 --> 00:48:42,239
the NFC, twenty eight to one to win the Super Bowl.

919
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:44,880
I go to a lot of these guys games, right,

920
00:48:45,039 --> 00:48:46,719
just kind of like my new hometown team.

921
00:48:46,880 --> 00:48:48,400
Speaker 3: I really like Baker Mayfield.

922
00:48:48,679 --> 00:48:51,880
Speaker 2: Head coach Todd Bowles has been excellent, but defensive coordinator

923
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:56,000
Casey Rodgers has really just done a great job with

924
00:48:56,079 --> 00:48:59,960
this defense. And the old adages Teddy defense wins championships.

925
00:49:00,000 --> 00:49:01,239
Speaker 3: Do you think that still holds true?

926
00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:03,400
Speaker 2: And do you think there's any value here on the

927
00:49:03,440 --> 00:49:06,960
bus getting out of well the wild card round the year.

928
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:10,000
Speaker 1: So if there's one team from these two divisions that

929
00:49:10,119 --> 00:49:12,519
can make a run deep run of the playoffs. It's Tampa,

930
00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:15,400
you know. I mean the last year lined at eight

931
00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:16,920
and a half wins, they finished ten and seven. The

932
00:49:16,960 --> 00:49:18,679
year before, lined at six and a half, they finished

933
00:49:18,719 --> 00:49:21,559
nine and eight, eight and nine the year before, thirteen

934
00:49:21,599 --> 00:49:25,320
and four the year before that. Six point two yards

935
00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:27,400
per playoff fensially a year ago. That's number four in

936
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:30,440
the NFL. Only Baltimbore, Detroit and San Franz were better.

937
00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:32,360
Those are teams you like to be on the list with.

938
00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:35,519
You know, five point four yards will play all lout

939
00:49:35,559 --> 00:49:37,639
on defense, middle of the pack minus five and turnovers

940
00:49:37,639 --> 00:49:40,199
not much there. They did face a weaker than average

941
00:49:40,199 --> 00:49:43,039
schedule last year. Only a handful of teams based on

942
00:49:43,079 --> 00:49:45,840
my party numbers were weaker, since the Philadelphia, the Chargers.

943
00:49:46,079 --> 00:49:48,840
In the Miami and Washington, they went two and five

944
00:49:49,000 --> 00:49:50,639
for a playoff team, they went two and five and

945
00:49:50,679 --> 00:49:52,920
one score games. You know, that's rare for a first

946
00:49:52,920 --> 00:49:55,320
place team. Bianco, the Broncos were the only other team

947
00:49:56,280 --> 00:49:59,000
that made the postseason that were minus three or worse

948
00:49:59,440 --> 00:50:02,000
in one games ended up making the playoffs. They were

949
00:50:02,039 --> 00:50:04,719
slightly more injured than average last year, seventy four players

950
00:50:04,760 --> 00:50:07,960
shuited up, but they didn't win their fourth consecutive NFC

951
00:50:08,039 --> 00:50:10,880
South title. Todd Bowles back for his fourth year as

952
00:50:10,920 --> 00:50:13,360
head coach. Now they do you lose Liam Cohen to

953
00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:17,440
Jacksonville as often creator, but John Grizzard, the new offtion coordinator,

954
00:50:17,440 --> 00:50:21,039
promoted from within the offensive scheme intact, It's not a

955
00:50:21,039 --> 00:50:23,559
new offense for anyone to learn. You talked about Casey

956
00:50:23,639 --> 00:50:26,280
Rodgers and the defense. He's back for his fourth season

957
00:50:26,280 --> 00:50:29,400
and bowls. It certainly a defensive minor head coach. Most

958
00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:31,880
of the starting line of returns intact, All eleven on

959
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:34,880
offense are back. It's a top five offense with Mayfield

960
00:50:35,000 --> 00:50:37,719
last year, it's the top five offensive line. Excellent running

961
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:40,239
game with Bucky Irving and Rashad White. You know, the

962
00:50:40,320 --> 00:50:43,400
receiving course as good as any in the league. Really

963
00:50:43,480 --> 00:50:46,519
is the defensive unit with questions. You know they got

964
00:50:46,519 --> 00:50:50,920
star power with Vitaveya. Defense, tackle Antoine Winfield's a Pro bowler.

965
00:50:51,079 --> 00:50:53,599
Last year they signed Hassan Reddick. You know, re signed

966
00:50:53,599 --> 00:50:56,039
the future Hall of Famer Levante David. But there are

967
00:50:56,159 --> 00:50:58,760
death concerns, at least for me, on all three units.

968
00:50:58,800 --> 00:51:01,800
If they get banged up, injuries will destroy this defense.

969
00:51:02,039 --> 00:51:04,800
They did drafted two cornerbacks and two red edge rushers

970
00:51:05,119 --> 00:51:08,599
after the number one pick, A Booba out of Ohio

971
00:51:08,639 --> 00:51:11,239
State that wide receiver. So they spent a lot of

972
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:13,599
draft cap on the defense side of the football, But

973
00:51:14,320 --> 00:51:17,119
the offense looks good. The defense has questions, fields to

974
00:51:17,159 --> 00:51:19,480
fee like a team is gonna cash week by week,

975
00:51:19,840 --> 00:51:21,800
a lot of over bets. They closed out in the

976
00:51:21,840 --> 00:51:24,280
regular season last year eleven and three to the over

977
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:27,920
in their last fourteen games. That included their four games

978
00:51:28,079 --> 00:51:31,679
skit you know midseason a year ago. Re signed Godwin

979
00:51:31,760 --> 00:51:36,360
in the offseason, making that you know, receiving corps even better.

980
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:40,719
This team's pretty good, they really are. Schedule Wise, NFC

981
00:51:40,760 --> 00:51:44,480
South faces, NFC westn AFC East teams, they have six

982
00:51:44,559 --> 00:51:46,840
games versus their division all teams lie to seven and

983
00:51:46,880 --> 00:51:48,599
a half wins are lower. They went four and two

984
00:51:48,599 --> 00:51:50,039
in division last year. They could do better than that

985
00:51:50,079 --> 00:51:53,480
this year. The Jets the only other team on their schedule,

986
00:51:53,679 --> 00:51:56,159
though lying lower than eight and a half wins. They're

987
00:51:56,199 --> 00:52:00,719
three extra games Houston, Philly, Detroit compared that to everyone

988
00:52:00,760 --> 00:52:03,159
in the division. You know, the Bucks have a much

989
00:52:03,199 --> 00:52:06,199
tougher schedule in that regard. We'll see him on TV.

990
00:52:06,280 --> 00:52:07,639
They got a couple of Monday night games and the

991
00:52:07,679 --> 00:52:10,960
Sunday night games. Tampa the best team in the division

992
00:52:11,000 --> 00:52:14,079
by a fairly wide margin. The toughest schedule in the

993
00:52:14,119 --> 00:52:15,880
division by a fairly wide margin.

994
00:52:17,599 --> 00:52:20,760
Speaker 3: All right, that is the AFC and NFC South.

995
00:52:20,800 --> 00:52:23,440
Speaker 2: As Teddy mentioned, we'll be back on August fourth to

996
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:27,159
get into the preseason all the way through the end

997
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:29,880
of Super Bowl. Teddy, before we let our audience go

998
00:52:29,920 --> 00:52:33,360
any parting words thoughts, let's hear it.

999
00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:37,320
Speaker 1: Sure. We appreciate the likes, follows, and comments very very much.

1000
00:52:37,880 --> 00:52:40,119
The NFL Winter Report Season winn Report again one on

1001
00:52:40,199 --> 00:52:42,320
three and fifty two lifetimes seventeen and four with the

1002
00:52:42,360 --> 00:52:45,719
big ticket that comes out two days from now on Wednesday,

1003
00:52:46,039 --> 00:52:49,519
July second. Don't buy the report, get my season package

1004
00:52:49,559 --> 00:52:53,119
instead promo code NFL one hundred. We'll take one hundred

1005
00:52:53,159 --> 00:52:58,000
dollars off the full season package. Take advantage of that

1006
00:52:58,119 --> 00:53:01,440
right now on my homepage, WT dot bus backslash TC.

1007
00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:04,360
Thank you so much for watching, guys. Really appreciate all

1008
00:53:04,400 --> 00:53:07,480
the positive feedback. Best of luck with all your bets,

1009
00:53:07,840 --> 00:53:11,000
and we'll talk to you again after this little break

1010
00:53:12,199 --> 00:53:15,000
for the report to be released and then a little

1011
00:53:15,000 --> 00:53:16,599
bit of time to enjoy the summer.

1012
00:53:16,960 --> 00:53:19,280
Speaker 2: Absolutely, I hope you guys enjoy your July and if

1013
00:53:19,320 --> 00:53:22,360
you guys are watching live, stick around, hang out. Wager

1014
00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:23,920
Talk Today is up next

