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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is Friday. It's time for

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Total Bases. We've made it to the weekend, Tokyo brand

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in his back and we've got a full slate of

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Major League Baseball games.

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Speaker 2: To get into.

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Speaker 1: Your go to show for Major League Baseball and the

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wager Talk YouTube channel. Brian Leonard and I did a

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show yesterday. Brian, great call in the Marlins. Unfortunately the

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Pirates ruined the two team or earlier in the day.

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But hopefully you guys all played the Marlins in some

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fashion because that game went exactly as we kind of

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talk that it would. A total a rare sandwich type

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spot in baseball where you have a team that just

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came off the biggest series of their season in a

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sweep and they have a huge look ahead spot to tonight.

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The look ahead being the now much anticipated debut of

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Jonah Tong, who's going to get the ball for the Mets.

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And what did that produce yesterday? Exactly what Brian said,

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a sloppy game, three errors from the Mets and really

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just out played for nine innings in a game the

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Marlins won seventy four. So let's start there tonight. City

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Field is gonna be probably be rocking. It's a Friday night.

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Mets fans are feeling good after the way the last

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week is went. And Jonah Tom top pitching prospect in

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all of Major League Baseball in my opinion, and I

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guess everyone's now even though we were ahead on that

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is getting the ball on his home field Mets Marlins.

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Is the value gone with the Mets though at this

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point minus one seventy five.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, at least the top pitching prospect, no doubt. And

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they've been excited. I've been excited, and I know you have.

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You got Eury Perez against Tom, and the Mets are

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making it pay for it or the bookmakers this year

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you're telling about one seventy five here on the Mets

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total of eight if the thing the only thing I'm

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worried about is it's his first, his first game in

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the majors. He's a right hander. Those don't tend to

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go as well as a lot of people thinking he's

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going against Jury Perez, who who's really good. But you

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got Miami off of the wins, so they're going to

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come in confident. That said, everything I read about Tom

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is he's going to be a star. And the Mets

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are finally bringing these guys up, and it's definitely going

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to help come the restless season and the playoffs. The

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Mets don't have to win every game. Just like the

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other gay teams I've talked about, they've all locked in

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their playoff positions or at least their spots in the playoffs,

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which means much more than the seeding in the playoffs.

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We've noticed that so much in the NBA. You want

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to play certain teams and you know they'll tank a

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few games at the end to play somebody else, and

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they don't care because none of that is because in

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Major League Baseball, your home team only wins about fifty

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three to fifty four percent of the time, whereas in

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the NBA and other sports it's a lot higher than that.

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So it's more of who's making the playoff as opposed

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to what you know your deal is, unless you're getting

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a buye in the first round or something, and that

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may make a difference. But I like Tong, I like Perez,

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which means I would prefer the under Here. Let me

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take a look at today's weather City feel is expected

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to be fifteen percent lower than a league average team.

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They normally are lower, lower scoring, So that's the way

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I would look here. I would look to play the

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under this you're getting eight. There's a few that you

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can get eight even money, but overall eight minus one,

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ten to one, twenty or seven and a half to

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the over. If you can get that eight, I think

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that's probably a quittery good bet.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Sorry, and this yesterday, I was just out of it.

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I couldn't even man. I was just in bad shape

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last night. But I feel much better today regarding this one. Yeah,

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Tong's kind of an X factor, obviously, because he's never

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pitched in Major League spoke before. Looking at Miami, I

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have them ranked twenty six or worse in every category

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except starting pitching here, so I think it's Mets or

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nothing here. I don't know if I'll be brave enough

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to take Mets with a guy making his MLB debut

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on the mound. But Miami's not really hitting well and

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their bullpen certainly is not playing well. Despite yesterday's loss,

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I still have the Mets ranked number two in run

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production in current form. Their bullpen is below average performing

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below average, so that's kind of a scare. But I

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don't know. Maybe, Yeah, it Mets are nothing for me,

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but I probably won't play it.

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Speaker 1: Brian, what does the weather look like from a ball like, Well,

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what's the park factor type weather tonight at City Field?

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Speaker 2: Can you have that up?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? Is blowing to right field with anywhere from eleven

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to fourteen miles an hour. As the game goes on,

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The air pressure pretty pretty even, the temperature seventy two

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to seventy five, so it's not really a hot game.

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And everything combined shows that it'll be fifteen percent lower

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normally it's lower. And this is the best pitching park

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in baseball. I talked about Texas earlier in the season,

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but as it's warmed up, they've gotten a little bit

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more scoring there. But this is a pretty good ballpark.

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I always take look to take onders on because you've

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got obviously the ballparks that way. But keep in mind

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the Mets right now, over the last fourteen days lead

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major League Baseball in WRC plus a one sixty three.

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That's good for the last fourteen days. But every time

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a team gets high, they cool down, and anytime a

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team is cool, they get hot unless you're the Cleveland

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Guardians offense. Other than that, you've got to take it

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with a grand AsSalt. If some teams at won sixty three,

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like the Yankees are at one fifty two and the

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Mets are at one sixty three, they're both very good

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hitting teams. I would expect them to be in the

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once twenty range one fifteen. So there's gonna be a

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little bit of negative regression there coming with the bats

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for the match, and I would expect that today.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I asked because I think that helps me make

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the case for the under here. So I want I

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was at Jonah Toong's last start was in Syracuse, so

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I was at the game, and he's pitched He's only

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pitched two starts in triple A, totally dominant seventeen. I

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think he went eleven and two, eleven and two thirds,

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seventeen strikeouts, zero runs.

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Speaker 2: The only and it's not even a criticism.

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Speaker 1: The reason I asked is because the only really threat

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he gave up last week against a very good Indianapolis lineup, because,

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of course, as you saw me complaining on Twitter, Indianapolis,

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their lineup is all guys that the Pirates should have

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in their lineup. For whatever reason, they still are down

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a trip away. He gave up a couple of long

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fly balls, and you know, I think he may. I

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think we might see him be a fly ball pitcher.

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It makes sense he throws what Tongs. In my opinion,

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Tong's X factor pitches his change up, So I think

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you're going to see him be comfortable with giving up

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the fly ball and getting outs that way. So I

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wanted to make sure I wasn't kind of stepping into

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a scenario where the ball was going to carry and

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he was going to give up some long home runs.

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But as Brian has so eloquently pointed out, city Field

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tends to be a pretty good pitcher's park, and it

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doesn't seem like the ball is going to carry more

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than it than it normally would tonight.

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Speaker 2: So that to me is favorable for Tong.

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Speaker 1: Who everything else he's shown this year, the ability to

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throw strikes to mix it up has been very, very good,

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and I don't think that really changes here against the

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Marlins lineup that you know, they're not they're not Triple

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A by any means, but they still have a lot

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of young guys, still still a lot of hitters that

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are similar to the hitters that he's been facing, especially

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you know, Kyle Stowers out. They are going to get

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Connor Norby back tonight, So that's something to know if

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you're if you're vetting the Marlins, you do you do

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get Norby back, which is a big addition. But he's

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not He's not Stours in my opinion. So I still

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think that the Marlins lineup has has you have to

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downgrade them a little bit since the injury. So yeah,

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I could see so I could see Tong having some success.

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On the other side, you've got Uri Perez who's been tremendous.

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You know, expected era is under three expected batting averages

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under to under the Mendoza line boys. One ninety eight

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for Uri Perez expected batting average this year.

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Speaker 2: That's awesome. That's a really good mark.

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Speaker 1: I don't know that there's many UH starting pitchers in

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the league with a better expected batting average than Uri

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Perez right now. So I actually make the number here

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seven and a half, and I'm seeing quite a few

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eighths out there. I like the under here too, Brian.

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That's probably the only way I would bet this game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Press is in the thirteen percentile in ground ball

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percent so he's a flyball pitcher. Also, and I'm not

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too worried about him giving up the home runs here,

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So yeah, I think I did. I went five and

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one overall yesterday, three to zero in baseball. It wasn't

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anything I love, but everything I liked came in and

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this one, my man, not card. I do like the

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under in this one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And it gives me even more sort of confidence

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to say that knowing that the park should play to

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you know, should do its part here because again, those

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are two I think you're going to see two very

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good pitching performances and if they can get away with

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giving up a couple of fly balls and don't leave

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the ballpark, I think you're looking at something like three

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to two, you know, four to three type game. Good

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stuff there. Colin Gregory, just don't overlook the of Peyton

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Toll today basing Paul schemes. Yeah, this one kind of

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snuck up on me. Peyton Toll was in Double A.

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He may have even been in a ball to start

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the year. I know he spent most of his season

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at Double A. Got to Worcester for a couple starts,

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and Brian Leonard they the Red Sox must really like

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what they see because they could have easily called up

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Kyle Harrison in this spot, who's been much better at

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Triple A and was of course the guy that they

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traded Devers for. So you would think that the Red Sox,

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you know, I guess maybe would have had him in

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mind to get him up, try to see if they

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could show the fan base, hey, this is this is

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what we made the move for.

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Speaker 2: But they said, nope, let's go with.

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Speaker 1: The the prospect over Harrison, who's pitched.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's that's I think. I want to make that point.

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Speaker 1: Kyle Harrison has been great for Worcester over the last

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like five six starts, and yet they're gonna go with Tolls.

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So interesting stuff there. Hasn't had a much, hasn't had

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a ton of time at Triple A. And then of

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course we know all about Paul Schemes, who will be

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opposing him at time Way Park tonight.

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Speaker 2: So pirates Red Sox any lean for you here?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, just imagine your first Major league started. You finally

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get up there and you got to go against Paul

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Skans in your first start. But you know, he's I'm

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sure he's very happy to get a chance. We're taking

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a look at the line here and I've read a

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lot about about him. I don't know as much about

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him as you do, so i'll you know, I'll let

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you explain anything. But basically we're looking at sort of

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a pick him right now. Boston's one o eight favorite

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total eight to the under. Let's check out the ballpark

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here before we look at that. Let's see Fenway Park,

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win blowing out. Win's blowing out. They expect nineteen percent

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more runs than a normal major league game. So with

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the total right here at eight, that's that's a low

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total anyway from Boston. Maybe maybe in the second half

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of the game, after the shorters are out, maybe it

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will be able to play some live and get the over.

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But I obviously we love schemes, no doubt about it.

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The guy's terrific. But even though he's as good as

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he is, he's only eight and nine on the season

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two point oh seven ERA two point five eight expected

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zero point nine four. A way, when you take a

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look at tolls, I don't have any of the information

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on here since it was late. I've read about it,

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the possibility that they would call him up, but the

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sites that I use don't have him listed yet. Is

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still you know, six o'clock in the morning out here

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in Vegas, so both both spots where I look for

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that kind of information, there's nothing there. So you know

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more about him than I do, so I'll let you

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explain it from that point.

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Speaker 4: Everyone, please go to the replay of this show and

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give us a comment and a like, and subscribe to

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wager Talks YouTube channel because when people put single videos out,

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you will get a notification on that, and we have

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a lot of good cappers here at wagers Track. Go

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visit our pages as well. So regarding this one, I'm

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not going to mess with another picture that I don't

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really know much about and doesn't have a lot of

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experience at the major league level. What I do know

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is that Paul Skins is really good. And what I

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also know is I have Boston batting number nineteen out

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of thirty in current forms, so I would probably look

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at Boston's team total under here. The Pirates' bullpen's playing

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really solid right now, and I'm surprised that I'm saying

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that because I've never They've never really been known for

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a team to have a great bullpen, but they're playing

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really well right now. I would say Boston's team total

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under either in the first five under one and a

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half or in the game for three and a half.

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If you stretch that to four and a half on

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an alt I would take that under as well. I

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don't think Boston's gonna crush schemes here. He did get

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crushed by the rock Keys and the Brewers, but very

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rare that he gets crushed, So I don't think he

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will today either. No, that's the way I would go.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I you know, this is another one that's that's

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eight on the total that I think maybe should be

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seven and a half.

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Speaker 2: But the Red Sox looked a little tired yesterday in

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that game.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if it was just they needed to

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get out of town or whatever, but what was not

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their sort of best performance. I didn't think they had

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great at bats against Povic like and maybe they're just

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kind of in need of a day off. I feel

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like the Red Sox have played every day. Someone would

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have to check that. I feel like they've played like

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every day. I can't remember the last time they've had

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a day off. But again, you know, if the dog

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days are getting to you at all, Skeens is not

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the guy you really want to go and have to

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face if you know you're not totally locked in. Do you, guys,

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before I get get in a toll, do you think

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Skeens gets fired up to be at Fenway here, Like,

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is this an exciting start for him?

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Speaker 3: I would I would think so if you're a young player,

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you don't get to play the America very often. Are

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there may be Yankee Stadium in Fenway would probably be

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the two, although it's not really Yankee Stadium anymore. By

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the way, the last time the Red Sox had to

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day off was on August twentieth, so it has not

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that long. They had a break one day break after

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playing Baltimore and taking out a New York. Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I think these young guys would get fired up for

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any of the traditional stadiums like Wrigley, Yankees, Boston Dodgers.

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They get fired up for that stuff, I think a

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lot more than the Guardians and the Royals.

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Speaker 1: And it's an important point because, like, you know, you're

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getting to the point of the season.

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Speaker 2: It's September.

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Speaker 1: The Pirates are clearly out of it, like there's there's

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there's a couple of different ways that can go if

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if a guy's gonna and and we've talked about this before,

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like Schemes doesn't seem like one of those guys that's

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ever really gonna like not like show up and give

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the full effort. But like you know, there's mid September

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Pirates playing a team that's out of it, or getting

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to go to Fenway Park in a game that is

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going to have a playoff atmosphere for the Red Sox

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because of course, any Friday night at Fenway when the

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team is half decent is always packed and it's going

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to be a good atmosphere.

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Speaker 2: I think I think Skeins might feed off.

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Speaker 1: Of that a little bit. As far as totally. He

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did start the or Toll however, you pronounce his name Brian.

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He's a lefty, so you love him and you know

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that's your your type of profile of a guy coming up.

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He did start the year at high A. I only

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get to see why. I only watched one of his

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starts for Worcester.

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Speaker 2: Was very good.

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Speaker 1: Has has really dominated pretty much every level of minor

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league baseball so far this year. One hundred and thirty

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three strikeouts in ninety one and two thirds innings.

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Speaker 2: It's pretty good.

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Speaker 1: A zero nine to nine WHIP and his batting average

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against in the minors this year is two oh three

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at Triple A was one ninety three.

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Speaker 2: So I kind of see why the Red Sox are

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doing what they're doing.

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Speaker 1: He's a lefty and they have to see right now, hey,

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is this guy like is that small sample legit? Because

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that's someone that could really help them in the postseason

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if they've got a lefty no one knows about that

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can come in even if he ends up being like

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a long reliever, that that's it.

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Speaker 2: Could be invaluable in the postseason.

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Speaker 1: So, oh, the other thing I was gonna say, and

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I'll go back to Brian, Pirates have been bottom five

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all year in Major League Baseball WRC plus against left

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handed pitching.

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Speaker 2: I'd be shocked if they do much here, go ahead, Brian.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and the Pirates have only won twenty road games

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all season long. Just as we're talking about it, the

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Red Sox are getting hit now. So I see upwards

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of one twenty at Caesars.

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Speaker 2: Oh wow, so time hit.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so they've gotten hit. It's it's basically one one

348
00:17:52,079 --> 00:17:58,079
fifteen now for Boston, and I would expect that. And yeah,

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maybe we should have done the Scape to lead off.

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We might have got a better number.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say that.

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Speaker 1: I think Red Sox you could have got minus one

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o five when we were coming on air. I believe

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is what I had jotted down. I still think under

355
00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,559
eight has some value. I feel like if Totally is

356
00:18:13,599 --> 00:18:17,000
any good, I think you're gonna get a really you know,

357
00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:21,200
strong effort from schemes here. And if that's the case,

358
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Tokyo Brandon made a good point. The Pirates do have

359
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some bullpen arms, and I think today is the day

360
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that that Lawrence will rejoin the team. So I said

361
00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:33,160
yesterday when we were talking Pirates Cardinals, I don't think

362
00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:36,559
that was logistically possible playing the day game. My guess

363
00:18:36,599 --> 00:18:38,960
is you see Justin Lawrence out of the pen for

364
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the Pirates tonight, who has really been one of their

365
00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:44,039
better relievers this season, and he'll be coming back up

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from Triple A. So yeah, Pirates have some decent bullpen arms.

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It's a good a good point TV and markins and yes,

368
00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:55,039
this is Totally's major league baseball debut again, started at

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High A, so it's a big jump in season. We'll

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see if you can handle it. That's too for me though,

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I leen under right there, All right, let's let's keep

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it moving, Travis. Let's go to Travis. Travis Holmes in

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here every day, grinding and out. We appreciate all of you.

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We appreciate you, Travis. But everyone that that comes in

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interacts with the show on a daily basis, whether it

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be live or on demand on the wager Talk YouTube channel.

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Travis says, are the Dodgers gonna chase Gallon early? It's

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hard to tell if the Dodgers are interested from day

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00:19:31,599 --> 00:19:34,799
to day. That's true, but Brian Leonard, they got to

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be interested now, right because it's September. It's like playoff Baseball,

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and they've got the Padres in striking distance.

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Speaker 2: So this is gonna take us out West.

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Speaker 1: This is Dodgers and they're gonna host Arizona tonight.

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Speaker 2: Looks like Gallon versus Blake.

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Speaker 1: Snow, what about Travis's question, what are your thoughts on

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the Dodgers day to day and their and their sort

387
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of mindset right now?

388
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Speaker 3: Yeah? I mentioned that earlier. They get up for their

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rivals in the division, and although Arizona is not having

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a good season, they're eleven and a half games out.

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Keep in mind just a couple of years ago they

392
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went to the World Series. They get a lot of

393
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good young talent on this team. Not a fan of Gallon,

394
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I think he could get hit here. We're looking at

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Snell's going for the Dodgers or lefty, and Snell's been

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terrific when he's healthy. We're looking about a one ninety

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favorite for the Dodgers total of eight and a half

398
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to the under when I take a look at Gallen

399
00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:38,119
comes in with a five point one to three e

400
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,480
er a four point seven to zero expected. He's haspitched

401
00:20:40,519 --> 00:20:43,119
much better lately than he had in the first half

402
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:44,759
of the season, but his whip is still high one

403
00:20:44,759 --> 00:20:49,279
point three to one and really doesn't have anything really

404
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:52,000
dark red on the on the stock Gas Patriots means

405
00:20:52,039 --> 00:20:55,599
he struggled just about everything all season. He's better than

406
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:57,839
he was earlier, but he's not the way he was

407
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:00,799
in the past. Just last years he had a three

408
00:21:00,799 --> 00:21:03,680
point sixty five ERA three point four to seven, so

409
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he's had a down season and don't want to trust

410
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him here against these Dodgers' bats. They still don't have

411
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Monsie back. Munsey's such a huge addition to this Dodgers

412
00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:19,440
lineup because he's since he's got his glasses, and TV

413
00:21:19,559 --> 00:21:22,160
will tell you about that, but since he's got his glasses,

414
00:21:22,519 --> 00:21:24,880
he's a much better hitter and he's been on fire

415
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,319
when he's been able to play. Snow comes in one

416
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:30,720
point nine seventy r a four point one seven expected

417
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,759
small sample size only thirty two innings, but he's been

418
00:21:34,759 --> 00:21:36,799
a little bit lucky so far. Comes in with a

419
00:21:36,839 --> 00:21:39,640
one point three to eight whip, which isn't really something

420
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:43,559
that he does. He does. He does have a high

421
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walk rate, but that's because if he falls behind somebody,

422
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,279
he will put them on base and go after the

423
00:21:49,279 --> 00:21:51,119
next guy. There's a few guys that have done that

424
00:21:51,519 --> 00:21:53,759
and they've had a lot of success doing it. He's

425
00:21:53,799 --> 00:21:56,000
wanted them that does that, so you have to keep

426
00:21:56,039 --> 00:21:59,599
that in mind. But we know we were going to

427
00:21:59,599 --> 00:22:01,160
get out of Snell, but he has been a little

428
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:04,279
bit lucky so far this year. But if I'm playing it,

429
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I'm laying it because I don't want Zach any part

430
00:22:08,279 --> 00:22:11,279
of Zach Gallon here. And this is the time, as

431
00:22:11,279 --> 00:22:13,240
you mentioned, they only have a two git. Dodgers only

432
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,519
have a two game lead over the Padres, and the

433
00:22:15,519 --> 00:22:17,400
Padres have matched up pretty well against him.

434
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Speaker 4: I don't want any part of Zach Gallen either. Isn't

435
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:25,240
it funny Like when we were watching baseball in the

436
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:28,680
nineties and the two thousands, a five e R man

437
00:22:28,799 --> 00:22:31,559
you got sent down. But now a five VR is

438
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,680
acceptable in Major League Baseball, which is crazy. A five

439
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:39,000
plusdras it means you're awful. Sorry, but it means you're awful.

440
00:22:39,079 --> 00:22:43,119
And Zach Gallen has a five PLUSDRA. Uh, he's got

441
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a one three to one whip, which is unusual. Here's

442
00:22:45,599 --> 00:22:48,880
Blake Snell's numbers are quite unusual. Blake Snell has a

443
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,279
one three to nine whip or one three eight whip,

444
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:54,839
but his ERA is under two, so it means, uh,

445
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:57,200
he's he's he's gotten a little bit lucky. He's let

446
00:22:57,279 --> 00:22:59,839
he's let a few guys, too many guys on base.

447
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:03,200
He's let more guys on base than Gallon, actually, but

448
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:08,240
he gets out of it and he's you know this,

449
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:12,279
this Dodgers. I have been trashing the Dodgers bullpen all season,

450
00:23:12,319 --> 00:23:15,920
but actually I have them ranked thirteen in current form,

451
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:19,759
which is pretty good considering Arizona's is twenty two. So

452
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:24,759
what I really like here is Blake Snell's stats against

453
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,200
these batters in his career, and it's a really good

454
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:29,920
sample size of one hundred and two at bats against,

455
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:33,359
one eighty six average against it a six forty four OPS.

456
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:38,599
That's amazing. Gallon's numbers against the batters he's facing today

457
00:23:38,599 --> 00:23:43,599
are pretty average, pretty even, not glaringly horrible, but not

458
00:23:43,799 --> 00:23:48,319
very good. So if anything, one last stat about Blake

459
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,480
Snell at home in twenty innings, he's got a zero

460
00:23:51,559 --> 00:23:55,240
nine zero ER. That's pretty amazing. So I don't think

461
00:23:55,279 --> 00:23:58,279
there's any way you could look besides the Dodgers here,

462
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:02,000
the fact that they're they're top three there, they're big

463
00:24:02,039 --> 00:24:05,759
three Freeman, Bets and Oltani, even if they're all three

464
00:24:05,839 --> 00:24:09,000
cold in one game. The Dodgers have the luxury of

465
00:24:09,039 --> 00:24:13,039
having someone in four, five, six, seven, eight nine to

466
00:24:13,079 --> 00:24:16,000
step up, and the Diamondbacks I don't think have that

467
00:24:16,039 --> 00:24:19,920
anymore since getting rid of Naylor and Suarez. So Dodgers

468
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:22,480
are nothing for me. Maybe take a minus one.

469
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:28,440
Speaker 1: I somewhat disagree with, like the Diamondbacks not having the

470
00:24:28,519 --> 00:24:33,400
lineup anymore, because like, there's this lineup is still top

471
00:24:33,599 --> 00:24:37,720
five in Baseball WRC plus and like they yeah, swers

472
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,200
and Naylor are big names and they probably cost them

473
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:44,559
some pop, but they their team speed and like there's

474
00:24:44,559 --> 00:24:46,880
the ability to put the ball in play, score runs.

475
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:50,119
If Arizona's pitching didn't totally let them down this year,

476
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:53,119
this is an easy playoff team. Like easily they're in

477
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:56,960
the playoffs. But that's unfortunately what's happened to them. Guys

478
00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:59,720
like Zach Gallen have not been as good as what

479
00:24:59,759 --> 00:25:03,839
they've been historically. Was it Corbyn Burns right goes down

480
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,720
like early in the year, so you lose him. And

481
00:25:06,759 --> 00:25:09,279
then of course the bullpen, which was supposed to be

482
00:25:09,319 --> 00:25:11,319
a strainth like this was a bullpen that was supposed

483
00:25:11,319 --> 00:25:14,880
to have Justin Martinez aj puck. It was supposed to

484
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:17,400
be a good bullpen. These guys get hurt and it's

485
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:22,000
been awful. Turnbuckle, Tommy, I see you yesterday. He had

486
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:26,400
he said his best bet was Orioles Red Sox under.

487
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,759
We talked about that game that got there easily. I said,

488
00:25:29,759 --> 00:25:33,079
I agreed with him. I'm gonna ride with Turnbuckle. Tommy

489
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:37,279
here again, he says over in the Dodgers game, the Diamondbacks,

490
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:39,839
you know they they I think it's they didn't have

491
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:42,519
to say left handed pitching. They just hit pretty good,

492
00:25:42,559 --> 00:25:44,960
like this is still a lineup that can really hit.

493
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:47,880
Speaker 2: They just smacked around everything the Brewers had to offer

494
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:48,680
for four days.

495
00:25:49,039 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 1: And you want to talk about the other side of

496
00:25:51,759 --> 00:25:55,000
that being, you know, the Arizona last they haven't had

497
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:59,079
a day off four days, seven to five, nine to eight, yesterday,

498
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,240
two days ago three to two where they needed top

499
00:26:01,279 --> 00:26:04,279
bullpen arms, and then yesterday they hold on six to four.

500
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:06,440
Speaker 2: There's zero depth in that.

501
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,400
Speaker 1: Bullpen, so chances are if you get Gallon out early,

502
00:26:09,599 --> 00:26:12,200
that means Gallon gave up a few runs. And that

503
00:26:12,279 --> 00:26:15,440
also means you're getting cracks at this Diamondbacks bullpen, which

504
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:18,119
isn't very good. You look at a number like eight

505
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:21,039
and a half, Can you get something here from the Diamondbacks?

506
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:21,319
Speaker 3: Yeah?

507
00:26:21,319 --> 00:26:24,079
Speaker 2: I like Snell as much as the next person does.

508
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,279
Speaker 1: I don't know that you're gonna just totally shut this

509
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:28,880
Diamondbacks lineup down for nine straight in.

510
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:31,319
Speaker 2: So that eight and a half seems low.

511
00:26:31,839 --> 00:26:32,319
Speaker 3: Tote.

512
00:26:32,559 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 1: Big totals guy today, that's three games for me and

513
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,880
I have three totals. But that's another one where the

514
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:39,519
way I would play this would have to be the

515
00:26:39,559 --> 00:26:42,000
over I think it's about a half run to a runoff.

516
00:26:42,079 --> 00:26:45,119
So turbuckle Tommy, I'm with you. This feels like an

517
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:48,960
over right here, especially if if Arizona does anything here, that.

518
00:26:48,839 --> 00:26:50,839
Speaker 2: One's going over the total in my opinion.

519
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:56,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, hit that like button, he says, one hundred likes,

520
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,720
and TV will smile. I don't know, TV's always smiling.

521
00:26:58,759 --> 00:27:01,720
I'm the one that gets, yeah called out for being

522
00:27:01,759 --> 00:27:03,519
too serious. TV's always smiling.

523
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:06,079
Speaker 2: But we'll take the place to hit the hit that

524
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:07,559
like anything but serious.

525
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 4: You guys knew me.

526
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:11,559
Speaker 2: Oh no, I know. I was saying, I'm the one

527
00:27:11,599 --> 00:27:12,680
that's that's you.

528
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:14,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, you do.

529
00:27:16,599 --> 00:27:20,359
Speaker 1: But yeah, we we appreciate it, like subscribe comment. It

530
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,799
really helps the show. So we very much appreciate that.

531
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:26,839
And we got we gotta go to this game. We

532
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:29,599
got boots on ground right here. Jack Barco said he

533
00:27:29,759 --> 00:27:32,680
is going to be front row at the Twins game.

534
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:36,000
That's pretty awesome. Is that target Field? I've never dot,

535
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:37,680
Brian Leonard, have you been to target Field?

536
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,319
Speaker 3: No? Always, I've always wanted to go to Minnesota. I

537
00:27:41,319 --> 00:27:44,559
think I'm gonna go next year. I just I've got

538
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,279
some people that i know they live there and I've

539
00:27:47,279 --> 00:27:49,799
heard good things about it, and plus I want to

540
00:27:49,799 --> 00:27:53,599
head up to maybe maybe Milwaukee too and go to

541
00:27:53,599 --> 00:27:57,000
the Loney Coogle's brewery up there in an upper upper Wisconsin.

542
00:27:57,079 --> 00:27:59,920
So maybe make it a make a little weekly trip

543
00:28:00,079 --> 00:28:04,279
catch a few different ball games. Dude, I've been to St.

544
00:28:04,319 --> 00:28:05,359
Louis beautiful.

545
00:28:06,519 --> 00:28:10,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll meet you in if you do the Twins

546
00:28:10,559 --> 00:28:13,160
Park next summer, I'll take a ride up there. We

547
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:17,079
we host college baseball kids like It's something my fiance's

548
00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:18,920
family has done in town for like a long time.

549
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 2: We have a college team and one of the kids.

550
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:23,839
Speaker 1: That's lived with us for two years is going to

551
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:27,160
play in Minnesota, and I think he's going to try

552
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,440
to play in that Northwoods League next year. So I

553
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:31,960
need a reason to like get out to you know,

554
00:28:32,039 --> 00:28:34,400
get out to Minnesota. I think Target that and target

555
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:37,279
Field would do it for me. So next summer we're

556
00:28:37,319 --> 00:28:38,440
gonna go to target Field.

557
00:28:38,759 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 2: Tonight.

558
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,079
Speaker 1: Jack Barco's going to target Field and he needs some

559
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:45,920
action while he's sitting right there front row, which is awesome.

560
00:28:46,519 --> 00:28:49,599
He's gonna get to see Zebi Matthews probably pump fastballs

561
00:28:49,599 --> 00:28:52,279
in there, you know, and throw a ton of strikes.

562
00:28:52,519 --> 00:28:55,000
The question is is he going to see a Twins win.

563
00:28:55,079 --> 00:28:57,480
I don't know the team that might catch the Dodgers, Brian,

564
00:28:57,799 --> 00:29:00,000
the San Diego Padres Padres Twins.

565
00:29:00,119 --> 00:29:01,119
Speaker 2: How are you seeing this one?

566
00:29:01,599 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, Padres Cortez, the lefty against Matthews, and we're looking

567
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:09,680
at basically a one thirty favorite for San Diego eight

568
00:29:09,759 --> 00:29:16,039
and a half slightly to the over so target field.

569
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:20,119
It's playing pretty neutral in this game. Slight win to

570
00:29:20,279 --> 00:29:23,720
the to the left field coming in, but nothing is

571
00:29:23,799 --> 00:29:27,400
going to affect the game at all. When we're looking

572
00:29:27,599 --> 00:29:31,119
at Cortes, he's got a four point sixty six ERA

573
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:35,240
five point five to four expected one point three four whip.

574
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:39,000
He's only not twenty nine thinks, so it's not quite

575
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:43,559
enough for the stackcast page to see a lot, but

576
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:48,319
what they do see are not good numbers. It is fastball, velosty,

577
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:53,279
six percent, extension, ten percent thross four steamer, cutter and

578
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:58,119
change and sweeper just about every time. I thinker one

579
00:29:58,119 --> 00:30:02,000
percent of the time. But I do like lefties. And

580
00:30:02,119 --> 00:30:07,000
he's coming in here against Zebbie Matthews, who has been

581
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:11,720
unfortunately at a disappointment at this level. We've talked about

582
00:30:11,759 --> 00:30:13,720
him in the past, what he used to do last year,

583
00:30:13,759 --> 00:30:16,000
what he's doing this year. But he still comes in

584
00:30:16,079 --> 00:30:18,559
with a five point three OEI although they expected as

585
00:30:18,559 --> 00:30:21,400
four point four zero. But his whip one point five

586
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:24,279
to two, and he's not walking people. He's seven point

587
00:30:24,359 --> 00:30:27,599
seven percent, which is less than league average. It's he's

588
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:30,759
getting hit and he's in the thirteenth percent tile and

589
00:30:30,839 --> 00:30:34,119
barrel rate fourteen or sixteenth percent tile and ground ball

590
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:37,759
rate and hard hit percent isn't very good either. So

591
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,359
he has not lived up to my expectations. And I'm

592
00:30:41,359 --> 00:30:43,119
sure if you're a Twins fan, you're a little bit

593
00:30:43,119 --> 00:30:46,880
frustrated also. But they're not going anywhere. They've got no

594
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:51,680
reason to to throw out older guys that aren't going

595
00:30:51,759 --> 00:30:53,960
to be in their future, so they probably bring up

596
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:57,559
these younger guys. And I still think he's got a

597
00:30:57,559 --> 00:30:59,960
bright future, but I can't trust him at this price

598
00:31:00,319 --> 00:31:03,359
in this situation. If I played it, I would lay

599
00:31:03,359 --> 00:31:07,799
it with Cortes on the road. And if you're looking

600
00:31:07,839 --> 00:31:12,240
at that Central Division in the American League, the only

601
00:31:12,279 --> 00:31:15,240
team with a positive run differential in the seasons the Tigers.

602
00:31:15,279 --> 00:31:18,039
It's been a disappointing year in that division. After I

603
00:31:18,039 --> 00:31:20,480
think they've got three teams to playoffs, either last year

604
00:31:20,519 --> 00:31:23,720
or the year before. It's fallen on hard times. This year.

605
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:31,039
Speaker 4: Again we have Zebulon going against Nestor Cortes. Nest Cortez

606
00:31:31,119 --> 00:31:34,640
has some weird, weird numbers. If you take a look

607
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:37,519
at his last five starts, he got blown up in

608
00:31:37,559 --> 00:31:40,000
one of them. I mean he gave up four runs

609
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:42,680
in five innings. That's kind of getting blown up. If

610
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:45,440
you remove that, he hasn't given up more than two

611
00:31:45,519 --> 00:31:48,480
runs in a start in five stars, it's pretty good numbers.

612
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,839
So looking at that, you think, oh, you know, cover

613
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,400
his name, and you think, oh, this is a pretty

614
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:57,319
good picture. Then you look at his numbers. He's got

615
00:31:57,319 --> 00:32:00,200
a four to six six ERA. That's not good. He's

616
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,559
got a one three four WHIP that's not very good either.

617
00:32:02,799 --> 00:32:09,920
So I am I'm perplexed here. His numbers look good

618
00:32:10,279 --> 00:32:13,079
on his game log, but they don't look good on

619
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:17,720
his his his his actual statistics. However, he does have

620
00:32:17,759 --> 00:32:22,400
good numbers against these Minnesota batters in his history. Problem

621
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:26,039
is those were probably acquired years ago. He's been in

622
00:32:26,079 --> 00:32:26,680
the league.

623
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 3: For a while.

624
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:32,119
Speaker 4: So that's the breakdown on Nestor Quartez. Now Zabbie Matthews.

625
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:36,200
He has not been very good at all. He's got

626
00:32:36,759 --> 00:32:41,319
let's see four four two are at home. Not very good,

627
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:44,799
not terrible, not very good though, and he's given up

628
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:47,960
a lot of earned runs, given up nine earned runs

629
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,960
in his last three starts. He's given up four or

630
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:55,920
more earned runs three times in his last seven starts.

631
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:59,559
So I'm don't have a lot of faith in Zebu

632
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:04,720
Lant today. Who hits better. Well, they're both pretty much even.

633
00:33:05,039 --> 00:33:08,359
But I don't think anyone would argue that Padres don't

634
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:12,160
have more talent. They certainly do, but they're not They're

635
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,720
They're kind of in a little quagmire here. The Padres are.

636
00:33:15,359 --> 00:33:17,119
They have a lot more talent, and they have a

637
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:21,319
much better bullpen. I've said in shows past they've probably

638
00:33:21,319 --> 00:33:24,799
got one of the top two bullpens in Major League Baseball.

639
00:33:25,519 --> 00:33:29,039
So I would think you go with the Padres or

640
00:33:29,079 --> 00:33:33,799
nothing here because we just talked about the Dodgers fighting

641
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:36,720
for a playoff position, while the Padres are the team

642
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:40,759
they're fighting with, uh, and I think they'll I think

643
00:33:40,759 --> 00:33:43,200
they'll step it up here. I don't think Nester Cortez

644
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:45,680
is that bad. I don't think he's as bad as

645
00:33:45,759 --> 00:33:48,920
Zebbie Matthews, let's put it that way.

646
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, Brian, I'm kind of with you on on Zebbi.

647
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:56,480
I expected more out of him this year. I think

648
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:58,440
this is a guy they'll don't give up on him

649
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:00,720
like this. This will be this a guy that you

650
00:34:00,759 --> 00:34:04,000
want to be high on going into next season. Okay,

651
00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:09,639
he still throws ninety seven. He has an excellent swing

652
00:34:09,679 --> 00:34:12,639
and miss stuff. He is like a tweak or two

653
00:34:12,679 --> 00:34:16,119
away from being really really good, And the problem is

654
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:19,199
it's it's very difficult to do that mid season at

655
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:22,800
the big league level. That's something like he needs a

656
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:27,119
big league off season going to spring, have everything go

657
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:31,000
right from a health standpoint, and if that happens, expect

658
00:34:31,079 --> 00:34:33,199
him to come out and just be shutting dudes down

659
00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:34,239
come next year.

660
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:36,280
Speaker 2: Like, I don't think he's that far off.

661
00:34:36,639 --> 00:34:38,800
Speaker 1: And that's why I refuse to really debt against him

662
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:42,400
at this point because I just can't have that happen

663
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:44,760
to myself where it's like I decide to go against

664
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:47,880
him and oh suddenly it clicks and he comes out

665
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:51,400
and fire seven scoreless, because that is absolutely what his

666
00:34:51,599 --> 00:34:55,360
ceiling is like. If he's a tweak or two away

667
00:34:55,679 --> 00:34:59,119
from being like an ace in my opinion, So can't

668
00:34:59,159 --> 00:35:01,559
can't fade, that can't really be you know.

669
00:35:01,639 --> 00:35:03,039
Speaker 2: The other thing is too, I can't.

670
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:06,039
Speaker 1: Really bet the Twins, And I'll go to its Grant

671
00:35:06,679 --> 00:35:09,280
in the comments says, you know, you never really know

672
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:11,239
what you're gonna get out of this Twins bullpen. He

673
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:14,599
calls it a triple a bullpen. That's a very reasonable assessment.

674
00:35:14,599 --> 00:35:17,800
They traded away every leverage reliever they had, and so

675
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:20,599
now it's like you really don't know what you're getting

676
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:24,320
from the Twins from a release standpoint, and unlike the

677
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:26,679
White Sox, like this is kind of what the White

678
00:35:26,679 --> 00:35:29,679
Sox have done for a while, but it's kind of

679
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:31,639
worked for them and they've shown like they've got some

680
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,960
good arms, whereas like the Twins, it's like they haven't

681
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:37,800
really shown any consistency in this department in my opinion,

682
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:42,360
since they traded all these guys away. And so, yeah, like,

683
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:44,559
even if the Twins have a good like maybe you

684
00:35:44,599 --> 00:35:46,480
could take ZEBBI first five, but do you want this

685
00:35:46,519 --> 00:35:50,239
Twins team full game? Especially going back to what TV said,

686
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:54,559
the Padres probably have the best leverage arms in the league.

687
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:57,840
I think it's safe to say the Padres leverage bullpen

688
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:00,599
arms or as good as it gets. And and I'm

689
00:36:00,639 --> 00:36:03,320
with you TV, I would put the Padres bullpen one

690
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:05,719
or two as well. So this is tough. I'm just

691
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:08,039
gonna help pass. I'm gonna pass this over to Brian Leonard.

692
00:36:08,039 --> 00:36:09,320
I have nothing here, go ahead.

693
00:36:09,599 --> 00:36:11,320
Speaker 3: Yeah. I just wanted to point out the Cortes is

694
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:13,480
coming off as best start of the season, and it

695
00:36:13,519 --> 00:36:15,639
was against the Dodgers. He wants six innings, only give

696
00:36:15,679 --> 00:36:19,079
up one base runner. Did everything click and he figured

697
00:36:19,079 --> 00:36:21,000
it out? Or did he just happen to have his

698
00:36:21,079 --> 00:36:23,920
best start and you're backing him off his best start,

699
00:36:24,199 --> 00:36:26,639
which is something I usually don't want to do. But

700
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:28,239
I think the way I'm gonna take a look at

701
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:31,119
this game is hope that Minnesota takes an early lead

702
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:34,119
and then come in and get San Diego with plus

703
00:36:34,159 --> 00:36:37,960
money because of that bullpen as you met, as was mentioned,

704
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:42,320
huge bullpen discrepancy between these two and the Padres bullpen

705
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:46,079
as Padres the match. There's a lot of great bullpens

706
00:36:46,079 --> 00:36:48,320
out there, but they're one of the best, and so

707
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:50,679
I want them in the second half of this game.

708
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:52,599
So that's how I'm gonna look at it. If you're

709
00:36:52,639 --> 00:36:55,440
betting it live, wait till Minnesota takes the lead in

710
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:56,960
the game, and then just come back and bet to

711
00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:58,119
the Padres.

712
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:00,880
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to this one. This is a

713
00:37:01,199 --> 00:37:04,079
let's go to the al Central here. I have an

714
00:37:04,119 --> 00:37:07,199
opinion in this one, and we may have. We're twenty

715
00:37:07,199 --> 00:37:08,960
three minutes away from the end of the show. Haven't

716
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:11,920
locked in any any parlay legs, but I think that

717
00:37:12,039 --> 00:37:14,719
might change here. That being said, I'm gonna let Brian

718
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:19,199
Leonard kick us off Tigers Royals. Brian, this is your

719
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:21,360
Royals team here. You were the one that said, hey,

720
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:23,719
why is no one talking about the Royals. They had

721
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:26,920
a nice trade deadline. If anyone's gonna sneak back in it,

722
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,639
maybe it's them. A huge series at home for them

723
00:37:29,639 --> 00:37:30,880
here against the Tigers.

724
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:33,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're now up to a thirteen chance of making

725
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:41,159
the making the playoffs, having trouble finding it on. Okay,

726
00:37:41,159 --> 00:37:46,280
here we go. Current line on this one. We've got

727
00:37:46,559 --> 00:37:51,119
Detroit with Javier or excuse me, a wrong game, wrong game? Sorry,

728
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:56,360
I did you try with a paddock against Logo? Yeah,

729
00:37:56,639 --> 00:38:00,400
Detroit's not playing well. Kansas City has been hit better

730
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,119
than they have earlier. In this season. I'd kind of

731
00:38:03,119 --> 00:38:05,599
like logo here. I thought the line should have been higher.

732
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,920
I would have said maybe one thirty would be the

733
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:11,880
opening line on this game with Lugo, and you can

734
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,480
get them for you know, there's many places out there

735
00:38:14,519 --> 00:38:16,199
you can get them for less than one twenty, but

736
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:19,280
one twenty is about the average total of nine in

737
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:23,239
this one. Paddick's the guy that I'm usually trying to fade,

738
00:38:24,119 --> 00:38:28,760
and he comes in. He's very good at the walk

739
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:31,239
grate doesn't walk a lot of players. He's in the

740
00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:34,239
ninety first percentile, the walk rate ninety second and extension

741
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:37,719
because he's six foot five and eighty fourth in chase,

742
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,000
but everything else is in the blue. Comes in with

743
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:42,039
a four point ninety eight and excuse me, four point

744
00:38:42,119 --> 00:38:45,159
nine to eight ERA four point eight three expected. His

745
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:47,320
last year as ERA was four point nine to nine

746
00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:50,199
the year before five point four zero. I know ERA

747
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:53,039
is not the perfect stat, but it gives you an

748
00:38:53,079 --> 00:38:56,920
idea on what we can expect out of him, but

749
00:38:57,400 --> 00:39:00,840
expecting bad again. Average eleventh percentile with right fourteenth, stric

750
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:03,840
out of rate thirteenth or hit twenty first, ground ball

751
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:06,880
twenty third. So he's a flyball pitcher in Kansas City.

752
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:11,320
Kansas City's normally a pretty good place the limits for

753
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:13,800
fly balls for home runs, but it's been up a

754
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:15,480
little bit this year. It's played a little bit differently

755
00:39:15,559 --> 00:39:18,199
than it has in the past. And he's going against

756
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:21,840
Lugo Seth Lugo. If you take a look at his

757
00:39:22,079 --> 00:39:26,239
tack gas page, there's no red on it. He's a

758
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:29,000
ten year veteran, he's thirty five years old. He's not

759
00:39:29,079 --> 00:39:33,480
going to beat you with his stuff. He's going to

760
00:39:33,559 --> 00:39:36,639
beat you with guile. And even though his ERA is

761
00:39:36,639 --> 00:39:38,480
at three point ninety nine this year, for the last

762
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:41,079
two years it was three and three point five seven

763
00:39:42,199 --> 00:39:44,639
is expected as five point one to nine. But if

764
00:39:44,639 --> 00:39:46,320
you go back and look at what he's done through

765
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:49,480
his entire career, the east of the last five years

766
00:39:49,519 --> 00:39:54,880
has outperformed is expected era. And that's because he throws

767
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:58,800
a lot of junk up there. He throws what is it, one, two, three, four,

768
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:02,880
nine different pitches, two of them only one in two

769
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:05,239
percent of the time. But he's got the most he

770
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:08,599
throws is his cutter at twenty three percent. I love

771
00:40:08,639 --> 00:40:11,079
these pictures. And if you don't get a major strikeouts,

772
00:40:11,079 --> 00:40:12,760
he struck one hundred and twenty one hundred and forty

773
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:15,880
two innings. He doesn't ur to strike out per inning.

774
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:18,760
He's a guy that we find, at least I find

775
00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:21,280
a lot of value on because a lot of people

776
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:23,360
will look and they want the guys to strike people out.

777
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:25,440
Of course you do. That means that the ball isn't

778
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:27,519
in play and you don't have to worry about the

779
00:40:27,559 --> 00:40:31,079
Yankees defense having another error. It's the kind of thing

780
00:40:31,119 --> 00:40:33,480
that you do. So I'd like Kansas City here. I

781
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:35,039
think there's a value on him. I would have made

782
00:40:35,039 --> 00:40:37,280
it one thirty, so that gives us a little bit

783
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:40,320
of an advantage here on Kansas City, and you can

784
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:42,559
get it as low as you know. One's sixteen out

785
00:40:42,559 --> 00:40:43,159
there right now.

786
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:49,199
Speaker 4: Couldn't agree with Brian Moore. I like Lugo too, And

787
00:40:49,519 --> 00:40:52,719
I love these kind of pitchers that have tons of

788
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:55,320
different pitches that they can throw because they last longer

789
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:59,199
and they tend to be the cerebral type pictures. These

790
00:40:59,199 --> 00:41:02,280
are the kind of pictures I enjoy watching. And uh

791
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:05,800
so I'm a big Lugo fan. I actually am. And

792
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:11,119
I Paddock is awful. Sorry, he's just bad and on

793
00:41:11,199 --> 00:41:13,800
the road, he's got like a five six ERA on

794
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:17,480
the road, pretty bad numbers against these Kansas City batters.

795
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:20,880
Lugo at home as a three two ARA really nice.

796
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:23,039
He's got a one to two four whip on the season,

797
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:25,880
very nice at three nine nine ERA, which is pretty

798
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:31,119
nice as well. And looking you know, I mean looking

799
00:41:31,159 --> 00:41:34,760
at his his last few starts, Yeah, he had, he

800
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:36,760
had a couple of rough starts. I mean three of

801
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:40,679
his last four starts were rough. But I think he's

802
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:43,440
going to bounce back here. I like Lugo at home.

803
00:41:43,559 --> 00:41:45,039
As a matter of fact, I'm gonna make this my

804
00:41:45,079 --> 00:41:48,320
parlay leg. I think Royal's minus one twenty on the

805
00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:50,599
money line will be my leg for today.

806
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:53,920
Speaker 2: Love it. That's what I was gonna do, And I'm

807
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:55,960
fine with that. No, that's fine.

808
00:41:56,199 --> 00:41:58,960
Speaker 1: I'm glad you did that because I have other opinions

809
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:02,400
and I'd rather have someone else take it.

810
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:04,599
Speaker 2: So that's so that's perfect. What are we what are

811
00:42:04,599 --> 00:42:06,199
we looking at for money lying there right now?

812
00:42:06,199 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 3: Brian? Yeah, about one twenty or.

813
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:10,639
Speaker 2: So, I think I am.

814
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:13,559
Speaker 4: I like Lugo too, you know, I just I just

815
00:42:13,639 --> 00:42:16,440
love all the tools he's got and he's just he's

816
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:18,880
not a flamethrower, but I just like watching a pitch.

817
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:19,599
He's fun to watch.

818
00:42:20,159 --> 00:42:22,880
Speaker 1: So I got a question for well, really, this could

819
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:24,760
be for the chat or it's for for both of you.

820
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:28,840
Does anyone see al Central betting odds right now out

821
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:31,639
there like to win the division? Because I just checked

822
00:42:31,639 --> 00:42:34,599
four different sites and for whatever reason, they don't have

823
00:42:34,639 --> 00:42:37,719
the AL Central Yeah, why I have?

824
00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:43,039
Speaker 3: They won't. It's the Tiger's got eight percent chance of

825
00:42:43,079 --> 00:42:45,599
making the playoffs. They're eight and a half games behind

826
00:42:45,639 --> 00:42:50,719
with with twenty eight games to go. Yeah, that's the no.

827
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:54,400
If you had a chance about Detroit there, that's as

828
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:56,239
close to the lock as you could probably get.

829
00:42:56,639 --> 00:42:58,639
Speaker 1: Right, I see what you're saying. If you had a

830
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:05,599
chance about Detroit. Listen, the Royals could put The Royals

831
00:43:05,599 --> 00:43:07,199
could put a little pressure on them this week, and

832
00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:09,119
if they can, if they have a good series, especially

833
00:43:09,159 --> 00:43:11,800
if they were to sweep eight and a half back,

834
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:15,199
the Royals have a very manageable September schedule. They're gonna

835
00:43:15,199 --> 00:43:17,239
get three head to head games here with the Tigers.

836
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:19,760
They're probably gonna win tonight. I like them tonight as well,

837
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:24,840
So that's why I was asking Pizza money on the

838
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:27,440
Royals to win this division is not crazy the Tigers.

839
00:43:28,199 --> 00:43:29,519
Speaker 2: Let's say this Titans up.

840
00:43:29,559 --> 00:43:31,119
Speaker 1: Let's say the Royals have a good weekend, they get

841
00:43:31,119 --> 00:43:32,400
it down to six and a half or five and

842
00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:34,920
a half, and they're able to sort of chill there.

843
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:36,199
Speaker 2: Maybe they make up a game or two.

844
00:43:36,599 --> 00:43:39,199
Speaker 1: The Tigers end the season with a pretty tough road trip,

845
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:41,679
it's gonna be it's gonna be Cleveland and Boston for

846
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:45,320
the Tigers at the end of the year. The Royals

847
00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:49,119
for the most part, very favorable September schedule.

848
00:43:49,199 --> 00:43:50,760
Speaker 2: So maybe it's not to win the division.

849
00:43:51,119 --> 00:43:53,880
Speaker 1: But if you're looking at like Royals to make the playoffs,

850
00:43:55,159 --> 00:43:58,320
anything pro Royals, I think I'm okay with that, and

851
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:00,679
I would just take flyers on them every where, because

852
00:44:01,039 --> 00:44:04,239
they've got a home series here against Detroit, who is

853
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:07,000
just playing awful. They just aren't playing good ball, and

854
00:44:07,039 --> 00:44:09,400
I don't see I think they're at a disadvantage here

855
00:44:09,519 --> 00:44:11,599
for the reasons that the Boys have described already.

856
00:44:11,599 --> 00:44:13,000
Speaker 2: I'm not going to rehash that.

857
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:15,719
Speaker 1: But then for the Royals, it's home against the Angels,

858
00:44:15,719 --> 00:44:17,559
home against the Twins. Those two teams are out of

859
00:44:17,599 --> 00:44:22,159
it at Cleveland. That's manageable. The Phillies trip will be tough,

860
00:44:22,159 --> 00:44:24,719
but then it's Mariners and Blue Jays bolt at home.

861
00:44:25,079 --> 00:44:27,559
By that point, the Jays might be just going through

862
00:44:27,559 --> 00:44:28,639
the motions, resting guys.

863
00:44:28,639 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 2: They'll probably have it wrapped up.

864
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:32,039
Speaker 1: And then they finish up with the Angels in the

865
00:44:32,039 --> 00:44:35,599
A's that's much more favorable than the Tigers in my opinion,

866
00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:38,159
who are going to have the Mets the Yankees, and

867
00:44:38,199 --> 00:44:40,960
then they finish on the road against two teams that

868
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:45,079
might still need wins. So Royals to make the playoff,

869
00:44:45,119 --> 00:44:47,159
I would ladder the Royals if you can win the

870
00:44:47,159 --> 00:44:50,280
Al Central, make the playoffs and all different things. It's

871
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:52,400
a lotto ticket to an extent, but one that's more

872
00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:55,719
realistic than people think. And then, as far as today

873
00:44:56,119 --> 00:44:58,280
TV took the parlay leg right out of my mouth,

874
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:01,119
Royals money is a great bet my opinion. That's okay,

875
00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:04,199
I'll write that down. So we're gonna start it with

876
00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:09,840
the Royals. I love that, and uh let's see, let's

877
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:12,159
see Greg Ross says hate hate to go off topic.

878
00:45:13,199 --> 00:45:14,079
Speaker 2: Met's better play that.

879
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:19,119
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I thought, okay, yeah, anyway, uh yeah, Jonah talk.

880
00:45:19,199 --> 00:45:21,800
We started the show with that. So if you're if

881
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:25,199
you're looking for Mets. If you are looking for Mets,

882
00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:28,440
Marlins and our opinions on that one. That was the

883
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:33,239
beginning of the show. David says, the Jays will play

884
00:45:33,239 --> 00:45:36,679
it out for the division. How about tonight, Brian Leonard,

885
00:45:37,079 --> 00:45:38,400
is this a world series preview?

886
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:40,840
Speaker 2: In your opinion? We've got Blue Jays Brewers.

887
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:43,039
Speaker 1: My gut tells me one of these teams isn't getting there,

888
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:47,000
but they're both certainly in the conversation and they're gonna

889
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:49,760
play each other tonight in a in a sort of

890
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:51,199
a rare interleague series.

891
00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:53,119
Speaker 2: So Jays Brewers, how are you seeing this one?

892
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:55,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is one that kind of popped out to

893
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:59,280
me early on. I haven't done any I haven't put

894
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:01,960
up any plays yet at this point, but this is

895
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:03,920
one that I thought had a little bit of value

896
00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:08,719
if I can get to the spot here. Jason, Okay,

897
00:46:10,159 --> 00:46:15,360
we know that Milwaukee is does not need the wins.

898
00:46:16,039 --> 00:46:18,880
They've got a pretty good sizeable lead in the division.

899
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:23,239
Milwaukee comes in six and a half above the Cubs.

900
00:46:23,639 --> 00:46:27,679
The Cubs continue to falter. They're on a three game

901
00:46:27,719 --> 00:46:31,599
losing street coming into this game here. But Milwaukee, I

902
00:46:31,679 --> 00:46:34,840
like the way they use their lineup. Everybody plays, so

903
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:37,400
they've got guys. Even though they might rest a star

904
00:46:37,519 --> 00:46:39,480
once in a while, they've got other guys that can

905
00:46:39,519 --> 00:46:41,679
get into lineup. They do very well with the lefty

906
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:45,239
righty situation. They're one of the best coach teams in baseball.

907
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:50,039
Despite leaving the closer in to get hurt the other day. Okay,

908
00:46:50,079 --> 00:46:53,119
I'm over it, But when you take a look at

909
00:46:53,119 --> 00:46:55,079
the line in this game, I think there's value on them.

910
00:46:55,079 --> 00:46:57,960
They got Freddy Peroul to go in here against Shane Bieber.

911
00:46:58,280 --> 00:47:04,800
Now love Shane, great guy, huge, huge character in Cleveland.

912
00:47:05,320 --> 00:47:08,000
I wish him all the best. And he comes out

913
00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:11,760
and throws a gem in his first start off the IL.

914
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:15,400
It's been a long time, so see his pitched. I

915
00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:21,239
think people are believing, they're becoming believers in Bieber, and

916
00:47:22,639 --> 00:47:25,880
I don't know if I'm there yet. The line right

917
00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:28,639
now is about the one thirty range, and you're getting

918
00:47:28,679 --> 00:47:30,880
a total of either eight and a half hunder or

919
00:47:31,039 --> 00:47:33,440
seven and a half or excuse me, eight hunder or

920
00:47:33,559 --> 00:47:37,480
seven and a half over to get Milwaukee, and you

921
00:47:37,480 --> 00:47:41,039
can give Milwaukee upwards of one to twenty in this game.

922
00:47:41,679 --> 00:47:44,639
I find value in that. Freddy pearlt is having an

923
00:47:44,639 --> 00:47:50,920
outstanding year one of my favorite handicappers that handicapped pitchers

924
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:52,920
has moved him up in the top five in Major

925
00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:55,800
League Baseball this year. He said he's he's a guy

926
00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:58,400
that deserves it, and I agree. He's had a hell

927
00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:01,320
of a hell of a season. It comes in with

928
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:04,400
a two point six eight ERA three point four five whip,

929
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:07,840
one point excuse me, three point four to five expected

930
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:11,400
one point one oer whip. The only thing he does

931
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:15,000
that's not good is twenty seven percent of ground ball rate.

932
00:48:15,079 --> 00:48:17,239
So he is a fly ball pitcher, and he does

933
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:19,480
tend to walk batters. He's walked nine point four of

934
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:21,960
this season, just about one and a half more than

935
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:25,199
the league average. I liked Reddy Peralta. I like the

936
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:29,480
Milwaukee bullpen for the most part. Shane Bieber guy, as

937
00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:32,199
I mentioned, he came in pitched great a one point

938
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:35,159
five oh ERA zero point three to three whip, but

939
00:48:35,239 --> 00:48:38,480
his expected RA was three point four two. Now if

940
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:40,079
he comes out with a three point four to two

941
00:48:40,159 --> 00:48:42,039
in that game instead of the one point five zero,

942
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:45,239
maybe people aren't betting on Shane Baber as much as

943
00:48:45,239 --> 00:48:48,039
they are right now. Obviously, it's only six innings, so

944
00:48:48,079 --> 00:48:51,800
it's a small sample size, so there's not a lot there.

945
00:48:51,840 --> 00:48:55,360
But keep in mind he only threw one hundred and

946
00:48:55,360 --> 00:49:01,480
sixty six pitches last year, which is basically two games really,

947
00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:04,679
and they didn't pitch again, you know, since twenty twenty three,

948
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:07,079
so it's been a long time he's out. I'm not

949
00:49:07,199 --> 00:49:12,880
buying that. It's worked for the Brewers, one of the

950
00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:17,719
Brewers pitchers anyway, he's come back and looked really good

951
00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:22,280
all year long. But I can't expect that here. And

952
00:49:22,280 --> 00:49:25,079
this is a pretty good hitting ballpark. So I like

953
00:49:25,119 --> 00:49:27,199
Milwaukee in this game. In fact, I'm gonna use that

954
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:31,320
as my part of the parlor here. I'm gonna take Milwaukee.

955
00:49:33,400 --> 00:49:37,599
We can get let's let's go one sixteen. You can

956
00:49:37,639 --> 00:49:41,039
get better than that, but we'll go one sixteen on

957
00:49:41,119 --> 00:49:42,800
my part of the parlor here with Milwaukee.

958
00:49:45,519 --> 00:49:48,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, Guys, go to the replay and leave a comment

959
00:49:48,559 --> 00:49:52,119
and a like, and subscribe to wager Talk's YouTube channel.

960
00:49:52,199 --> 00:49:54,119
It goes a long way. It tells Wayger Talk that

961
00:49:54,159 --> 00:49:57,000
you like us and that you like our show and

962
00:49:57,239 --> 00:49:59,079
that you like the information we're giving. You know, the

963
00:49:59,119 --> 00:50:01,079
point of this show is not just to give free

964
00:50:01,079 --> 00:50:03,960
plays and stuff. It's to give you, guys information so

965
00:50:04,000 --> 00:50:07,599
you can make smart bets. We think that's just as

966
00:50:07,679 --> 00:50:11,519
valuable as just giving you a place. So yeah, and

967
00:50:11,599 --> 00:50:13,719
check our pages out at waygyatalk dot com. We got

968
00:50:13,719 --> 00:50:15,800
a lot of stuff up. Usually we have free plays

969
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:19,480
almost every day. So regarding this one, this is going

970
00:50:19,519 --> 00:50:21,320
to be a great game to watch because these are

971
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:25,280
too well put together teams and these are two really

972
00:50:25,320 --> 00:50:28,599
good pictures. I like, you know, if you look at

973
00:50:28,599 --> 00:50:32,800
the numbers against the batters they're facing today, Peralta, his

974
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:35,719
sample size is small against these Blue Jays, twenty four

975
00:50:35,760 --> 00:50:37,960
at bats against but a one sixty seven average and

976
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:44,920
a five sixty four ops. It's amazing. Justin Bieber thirty

977
00:50:44,960 --> 00:50:49,239
eight against and two to eleven average and a six

978
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:52,159
thirty seven ops. Yes, I said that on purpose, you guys.

979
00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:57,440
So my first inclination would be to take an under.

980
00:50:57,559 --> 00:51:01,360
But Toronto, man, they're batting number three in MLB right

981
00:51:01,360 --> 00:51:04,679
now as far as run production and current form. Hard

982
00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:08,800
to take a an under with that. And like Brian mentioned,

983
00:51:08,840 --> 00:51:11,840
I was going to mention the same thing. Parolta's walk

984
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:15,239
rate is a little bit too high for me. But

985
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:18,719
the way He's dominated these batters. It's only twenty something

986
00:51:18,760 --> 00:51:22,599
at bats against, but he's absolutely dominated them. So I'm

987
00:51:22,639 --> 00:51:26,880
definitely not going to bet an under with Toronto. If anything,

988
00:51:27,039 --> 00:51:31,679
maybe a Milwaukee under, but the fact that Bieber still

989
00:51:32,079 --> 00:51:34,960
has only one start since he came back and not

990
00:51:35,000 --> 00:51:36,760
a big enough sample size for me. If he if

991
00:51:36,800 --> 00:51:39,000
he had three starts where he was just shut down,

992
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:43,039
then maybe I would take a take a Milwaukee under here,

993
00:51:43,079 --> 00:51:45,000
but I'm not going to do it today.

994
00:51:47,519 --> 00:51:49,480
Speaker 1: I miss when they used to let the players put

995
00:51:49,519 --> 00:51:51,360
their names on the back of the jerseys.

996
00:51:51,000 --> 00:51:51,880
Speaker 2: For players together.

997
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:55,079
Speaker 1: That yeah, because Shane Bieber had one of the more

998
00:51:55,119 --> 00:51:57,639
famous ones. He just had not justin on the back

999
00:51:57,679 --> 00:51:59,719
of his jersey, and I feel like it like got

1000
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:04,000
probab you know that that and uh, the most famous

1001
00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:05,760
one will always be Dick Mountain.

1002
00:52:05,920 --> 00:52:12,639
Speaker 2: Of course that that's Rich Hill from Players Weekend, but famous.

1003
00:52:13,679 --> 00:52:14,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, he hates.

1004
00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:19,880
Speaker 4: In the XFL.

1005
00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:24,400
Speaker 1: XFL this actually so now so not even joking. I

1006
00:52:24,519 --> 00:52:26,719
would have used Brewers as my parlay league. Here are

1007
00:52:26,760 --> 00:52:28,960
some fashion or some way. I didn't know if I

1008
00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:31,199
was going to do Brewers or maybe a Brewers team

1009
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:34,320
total over, but Brian made made that easy for me.

1010
00:52:34,639 --> 00:52:35,920
Speaker 2: He put Brewers in the parlay.

1011
00:52:36,199 --> 00:52:38,920
Speaker 1: I want to point out, like Baber had quite a

1012
00:52:39,039 --> 00:52:41,119
quite a long rehab. He was coming off of a

1013
00:52:41,239 --> 00:52:43,800
very serious injury that that you know, it's like a

1014
00:52:43,880 --> 00:52:46,679
long term, sort of a long recovery type thing.

1015
00:52:47,239 --> 00:52:53,239
Speaker 2: Uh. He had a very cushy rehab run. Okay. Uh,

1016
00:52:53,280 --> 00:52:54,239
he was in Triple A.

1017
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:57,000
Speaker 1: He he had his whole deal through the lower levels

1018
00:52:57,719 --> 00:53:01,599
in three starts of Triple A. He faced Syracuse before

1019
00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:05,280
all the young guys like the Ryan Clifford, Carson, Benji,

1020
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:09,199
all those guys came up terrible lineup. He faced Worcester

1021
00:53:11,079 --> 00:53:13,840
after their lineup was pretty much already depleted, so it

1022
00:53:13,920 --> 00:53:16,760
was probably just Justins and Garcia and like nobody else.

1023
00:53:17,360 --> 00:53:20,480
And then he faced Lehigh Valley who they didn't they

1024
00:53:20,480 --> 00:53:24,199
didn't recent they didn't get like Mercado and Otto Kemp

1025
00:53:24,239 --> 00:53:27,280
back until like last week. So so he pretty much

1026
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:31,639
had three very watered down, poor Triple A lineups.

1027
00:53:31,760 --> 00:53:33,320
Speaker 2: And then of course what does he get in his

1028
00:53:33,719 --> 00:53:34,159
in his.

1029
00:53:34,440 --> 00:53:38,199
Speaker 1: Twenty twenty five debut a Marlins team without Kyle Stowers.

1030
00:53:38,400 --> 00:53:41,199
So he's had a very fortunate run. And I think

1031
00:53:41,199 --> 00:53:44,360
people are gonna look and say oh wow, one ninety era,

1032
00:53:45,079 --> 00:53:47,719
twenty three point two innings. This is his August numbers

1033
00:53:47,760 --> 00:53:50,519
right here, Ladies and gentlemen, twenty three and two thirds,

1034
00:53:50,639 --> 00:53:53,840
a one ninety era, a zero point eight zero whip.

1035
00:53:54,760 --> 00:53:55,559
Speaker 2: The Brewers are.

1036
00:53:55,840 --> 00:53:57,519
Speaker 1: It's gonna be a little bit of a different ballgame

1037
00:53:57,519 --> 00:54:00,480
tonight because this is a team whether they're playing, whether

1038
00:54:00,519 --> 00:54:03,239
they're like going all out or not. From like a

1039
00:54:03,280 --> 00:54:06,360
managerial standpoint, he's still gonna have to deal with the

1040
00:54:06,400 --> 00:54:09,480
Brewers lineup one through nine. They get on, they steal bases,

1041
00:54:09,519 --> 00:54:11,639
they put a lot of pressure on you. The reason

1042
00:54:11,679 --> 00:54:13,760
that they were losing games to the Diamondbacks was not

1043
00:54:13,800 --> 00:54:16,760
their offense. They hit the ball just fine. It's that

1044
00:54:16,840 --> 00:54:19,480
Arizona put some runs up in that series. So yeah,

1045
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:22,960
I think Bieber might have he might be. It's not

1046
00:54:23,000 --> 00:54:25,800
gonna be as easy, And if the Brewers don't win

1047
00:54:25,880 --> 00:54:28,000
this game, I do think they'll hit their team total

1048
00:54:28,039 --> 00:54:30,039
of over three and a half. So just another way

1049
00:54:30,079 --> 00:54:32,559
to look at it, I think Bieber's gonna give some

1050
00:54:32,559 --> 00:54:34,920
some runs up in this one and three and a

1051
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:37,039
half seems cheap on the team total, But I like

1052
00:54:37,039 --> 00:54:39,519
the way Brian went for the parlay here. Brewers, money

1053
00:54:39,519 --> 00:54:42,840
lines great value. Anything better than even money, in my opinion,

1054
00:54:42,960 --> 00:54:47,280
is really good value. Right there, I gotta find a game. Now,

1055
00:54:47,559 --> 00:54:48,679
that's back to back games.

1056
00:54:48,679 --> 00:54:50,760
Speaker 2: I thought I was. I was locking in the parlay leg,

1057
00:54:50,880 --> 00:54:53,400
and now I got to find a game.

1058
00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:57,760
Speaker 1: So let's see. Let me let's pivot right here. And

1059
00:54:57,800 --> 00:54:59,880
that's the other thing I even I hadn't really like

1060
00:55:00,039 --> 00:55:03,679
I committed too much yet today and the two things

1061
00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:06,159
I kind of had jotted down at this point were

1062
00:55:06,199 --> 00:55:08,920
Brewers and Royals. So let's see if we can find

1063
00:55:08,960 --> 00:55:10,840
when the Let's see if we can find when to

1064
00:55:10,920 --> 00:55:16,039
close this out.

1065
00:55:14,400 --> 00:55:15,559
Speaker 4: We can make it a two leg.

1066
00:55:17,119 --> 00:55:23,039
Speaker 2: Well, I mean under Yeah, you know what, let's let's

1067
00:55:23,079 --> 00:55:23,360
do that.

1068
00:55:23,400 --> 00:55:26,840
Speaker 1: I think my two strongest opinions were the totals that

1069
00:55:26,880 --> 00:55:28,719
we talked about earlier, maybe the three.

1070
00:55:28,760 --> 00:55:31,639
Speaker 2: I had three totals, So watch me pick the wrong

1071
00:55:31,679 --> 00:55:33,159
run one wrong one right.

1072
00:55:33,000 --> 00:55:35,840
Speaker 1: Here now, just kidding, like you know there, listen if

1073
00:55:35,840 --> 00:55:37,559
you go back to the beginning, the beginning of the show,

1074
00:55:37,960 --> 00:55:40,079
and as always, these shows are up live and on demand.

1075
00:55:40,159 --> 00:55:41,800
Speaker 2: I picked I had three totals.

1076
00:55:41,840 --> 00:55:48,039
Speaker 1: I talked about Mets Marlin's under Red Sox Pirates, under Dodgers,

1077
00:55:48,400 --> 00:55:51,960
Diamondbacks over. If I had to pick the strongest of

1078
00:55:52,000 --> 00:55:55,280
those three, I think it's Mets Marlins based on the

1079
00:55:55,280 --> 00:55:58,760
fact that Brian kind of confirmed what I was my

1080
00:55:58,920 --> 00:56:02,079
thought with the ballpark factors and the fact that it

1081
00:56:02,079 --> 00:56:03,920
doesn't look like the ball is going to carry a ton,

1082
00:56:04,280 --> 00:56:06,760
and the fact that City Field has played better toward

1083
00:56:06,840 --> 00:56:08,920
pitching and towards fly ball pitching this year.

1084
00:56:09,000 --> 00:56:12,079
Speaker 2: So is that still under eight, Brian? That's Marlin.

1085
00:56:12,239 --> 00:56:17,159
Speaker 3: You can get under eight. It's more like one twenty

1086
00:56:17,239 --> 00:56:19,440
right now, or you'd start or seven and a half

1087
00:56:19,480 --> 00:56:20,159
a deep in money.

1088
00:56:20,559 --> 00:56:22,920
Speaker 2: No, we'll go under eight minus one twenty. I want

1089
00:56:22,920 --> 00:56:23,360
that eight.

1090
00:56:23,519 --> 00:56:27,239
Speaker 1: So and we already and you you got us some

1091
00:56:27,320 --> 00:56:29,480
nice plus money in the parley with the Brewers, So

1092
00:56:29,559 --> 00:56:33,639
I'm good with that. Let's go under eight minus one

1093
00:56:33,719 --> 00:56:36,079
twenty and the Royals? Was that also minus one twenty?

1094
00:56:36,119 --> 00:56:38,920
Speaker 3: Do we decide that was minus one twenty? Yes?

1095
00:56:40,480 --> 00:56:43,039
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not gonna rehash that game. We we did

1096
00:56:43,320 --> 00:56:46,119
that extensively at the top. But I do think if

1097
00:56:46,119 --> 00:56:48,519
I had to pick my favorite total on the board today,

1098
00:56:48,559 --> 00:56:52,199
it's that one, and that'll that'll be the third leg

1099
00:56:52,239 --> 00:56:55,119
of the parley. So this is good. One we need

1100
00:56:55,159 --> 00:56:57,440
one of these. This is six, this is plus six

1101
00:56:57,559 --> 00:57:02,079
twenty six. We desperately need a parlay win to get

1102
00:57:02,119 --> 00:57:05,440
ourselves back ahead on the parlays this season, and that's

1103
00:57:05,440 --> 00:57:08,800
what it's gonna be. So Parlay of the day Trigg

1104
00:57:09,119 --> 00:57:13,239
total nets, Marlins under eight. Brian Leonard's going with an

1105
00:57:13,320 --> 00:57:16,960
underdog on the Brewers plus money plus one sixteen Tokyo

1106
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:20,800
Brandon on the Royals minus one twenty not that six

1107
00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:23,440
to one or six six twenty six plus six.

1108
00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:24,760
Speaker 2: Winning six better than six to one.

1109
00:57:25,159 --> 00:57:27,920
Speaker 1: Hopefully we can finish this week with a with a

1110
00:57:27,920 --> 00:57:30,960
a winning parlay. I think I can't remember the last

1111
00:57:30,960 --> 00:57:32,719
time I think we had do we hit one on Monday.

1112
00:57:32,920 --> 00:57:34,079
Speaker 2: Maybe it was a smaller one.

1113
00:57:34,119 --> 00:57:38,280
Speaker 3: I think it was maybe something. Anyway, that's been it's

1114
00:57:38,280 --> 00:57:42,000
been a while since we've been a three teamer. We're due, yeah, parlay.

1115
00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:44,599
It's hard to you know, I don't bet parlays, but

1116
00:57:45,159 --> 00:57:48,199
most of the time we're winning two out of three.

1117
00:57:48,599 --> 00:57:50,840
But you know, we've had days where we've gone on three.

1118
00:57:51,079 --> 00:57:54,000
I mean, it happens, but we've got three and all

1119
00:57:54,000 --> 00:57:56,559
more and we've gone on three for.

1120
00:57:56,519 --> 00:57:59,960
Speaker 1: Sure, And I like this one a lot obviously, because

1121
00:58:00,519 --> 00:58:02,559
I was gonna pick the two legs you guys picked,

1122
00:58:02,920 --> 00:58:05,119
and I got to add my total in there.

1123
00:58:05,159 --> 00:58:07,960
Speaker 2: So that's one more time three team parlay.

1124
00:58:08,000 --> 00:58:10,440
Speaker 1: We've got Royal's money line for Tokyo Brandon, We've got

1125
00:58:10,440 --> 00:58:13,480
Brewers money line for Brian Leonard, and I'm gonna come in.

1126
00:58:14,239 --> 00:58:19,280
It's tong time at City Field tonight. Jonah tong Ury Perez.

1127
00:58:19,360 --> 00:58:21,440
I think both they're gonna pitch. Well, I'll call it

1128
00:58:21,480 --> 00:58:24,320
a three to two final. You're gonna see under eight eight,

1129
00:58:24,599 --> 00:58:28,800
under eight Mets Marlins plus six twenty six. That's it

1130
00:58:28,880 --> 00:58:31,719
for the week. Andy Lank says, great week of shows. Andy,

1131
00:58:31,760 --> 00:58:34,800
we appreciate it. Tuning in. Go tune into wager Talk

1132
00:58:34,800 --> 00:58:38,280
today noon Eastern on the wager Talk YouTube channel. If

1133
00:58:38,320 --> 00:58:41,000
that's gonna get you ready for the college football weekend.

1134
00:58:41,000 --> 00:58:44,679
College football is back. I don't know if I said,

1135
00:58:44,719 --> 00:58:46,519
I don't know if the Qus have a chance tomorrow

1136
00:58:46,559 --> 00:58:49,239
against Tennessee, but maybe we'll see. Hopefully they can give

1137
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:52,119
us a competitive game. I've got some friends going down

1138
00:58:52,119 --> 00:58:55,079
to Atlanta for that one. Everyone enjoyed the football this

1139
00:58:55,119 --> 00:58:57,239
weekend and the baseball I know we'll be enjoying the

1140
00:58:57,280 --> 00:59:00,000
Baseball Like and subscribe and we'll see you guys back

1141
00:59:00,079 --> 00:59:00,760
here Monday morning.

1142
00:59:00,880 --> 00:59:03,920
Speaker 2: Have a great weekend, everybody,