Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is Friday. It's time for
Total Bases. We've made it to the weekend, Tokyo brand
in his back and we've got a full slate of
Major League Baseball games.
Speaker 2: To get into.
Speaker 1: Your go to show for Major League Baseball and the
wager Talk YouTube channel. Brian Leonard and I did a
show yesterday. Brian, great call in the Marlins. Unfortunately the
Pirates ruined the two team or earlier in the day.
But hopefully you guys all played the Marlins in some
fashion because that game went exactly as we kind of
talk that it would. A total a rare sandwich type
spot in baseball where you have a team that just
came off the biggest series of their season in a
sweep and they have a huge look ahead spot to tonight.
The look ahead being the now much anticipated debut of
Jonah Tong, who's going to get the ball for the Mets.
And what did that produce yesterday? Exactly what Brian said,
a sloppy game, three errors from the Mets and really
just out played for nine innings in a game the
Marlins won seventy four. So let's start there tonight. City
Field is gonna be probably be rocking. It's a Friday night.
Mets fans are feeling good after the way the last
week is went. And Jonah Tom top pitching prospect in
all of Major League Baseball in my opinion, and I
guess everyone's now even though we were ahead on that
is getting the ball on his home field Mets Marlins.
Is the value gone with the Mets though at this
point minus one seventy five.
Speaker 3: Yeah, at least the top pitching prospect, no doubt. And
they've been excited. I've been excited, and I know you have.
You got Eury Perez against Tom, and the Mets are
making it pay for it or the bookmakers this year
you're telling about one seventy five here on the Mets
total of eight if the thing the only thing I'm
worried about is it's his first, his first game in
the majors. He's a right hander. Those don't tend to
go as well as a lot of people thinking he's
going against Jury Perez, who who's really good. But you
got Miami off of the wins, so they're going to
come in confident. That said, everything I read about Tom
is he's going to be a star. And the Mets
are finally bringing these guys up, and it's definitely going
to help come the restless season and the playoffs. The
Mets don't have to win every game. Just like the
other gay teams I've talked about, they've all locked in
their playoff positions or at least their spots in the playoffs,
which means much more than the seeding in the playoffs.
We've noticed that so much in the NBA. You want
to play certain teams and you know they'll tank a
few games at the end to play somebody else, and
they don't care because none of that is because in
Major League Baseball, your home team only wins about fifty
three to fifty four percent of the time, whereas in
the NBA and other sports it's a lot higher than that.
So it's more of who's making the playoff as opposed
to what you know your deal is, unless you're getting
a buye in the first round or something, and that
may make a difference. But I like Tong, I like Perez,
which means I would prefer the under Here. Let me
take a look at today's weather City feel is expected
to be fifteen percent lower than a league average team.
They normally are lower, lower scoring, So that's the way
I would look here. I would look to play the
under this you're getting eight. There's a few that you
can get eight even money, but overall eight minus one,
ten to one, twenty or seven and a half to
the over. If you can get that eight, I think
that's probably a quittery good bet.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Sorry, and this yesterday, I was just out of it.
I couldn't even man. I was just in bad shape
last night. But I feel much better today regarding this one. Yeah,
Tong's kind of an X factor, obviously, because he's never
pitched in Major League spoke before. Looking at Miami, I
have them ranked twenty six or worse in every category
except starting pitching here, so I think it's Mets or
nothing here. I don't know if I'll be brave enough
to take Mets with a guy making his MLB debut
on the mound. But Miami's not really hitting well and
their bullpen certainly is not playing well. Despite yesterday's loss,
I still have the Mets ranked number two in run
production in current form. Their bullpen is below average performing
below average, so that's kind of a scare. But I
don't know. Maybe, Yeah, it Mets are nothing for me,
but I probably won't play it.
Speaker 1: Brian, what does the weather look like from a ball like, Well,
what's the park factor type weather tonight at City Field?
Speaker 2: Can you have that up?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Is blowing to right field with anywhere from eleven
to fourteen miles an hour. As the game goes on,
The air pressure pretty pretty even, the temperature seventy two
to seventy five, so it's not really a hot game.
And everything combined shows that it'll be fifteen percent lower
normally it's lower. And this is the best pitching park
in baseball. I talked about Texas earlier in the season,
but as it's warmed up, they've gotten a little bit
more scoring there. But this is a pretty good ballpark.
I always take look to take onders on because you've
got obviously the ballparks that way. But keep in mind
the Mets right now, over the last fourteen days lead
major League Baseball in WRC plus a one sixty three.
That's good for the last fourteen days. But every time
a team gets high, they cool down, and anytime a
team is cool, they get hot unless you're the Cleveland
Guardians offense. Other than that, you've got to take it
with a grand AsSalt. If some teams at won sixty three,
like the Yankees are at one fifty two and the
Mets are at one sixty three, they're both very good
hitting teams. I would expect them to be in the
once twenty range one fifteen. So there's gonna be a
little bit of negative regression there coming with the bats
for the match, and I would expect that today.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I asked because I think that helps me make
the case for the under here. So I want I
was at Jonah Toong's last start was in Syracuse, so
I was at the game, and he's pitched He's only
pitched two starts in triple A, totally dominant seventeen. I
think he went eleven and two, eleven and two thirds,
seventeen strikeouts, zero runs.
Speaker 2: The only and it's not even a criticism.
Speaker 1: The reason I asked is because the only really threat
he gave up last week against a very good Indianapolis lineup, because,
of course, as you saw me complaining on Twitter, Indianapolis,
their lineup is all guys that the Pirates should have
in their lineup. For whatever reason, they still are down
a trip away. He gave up a couple of long
fly balls, and you know, I think he may. I
think we might see him be a fly ball pitcher.
It makes sense he throws what Tongs. In my opinion,
Tong's X factor pitches his change up, So I think
you're going to see him be comfortable with giving up
the fly ball and getting outs that way. So I
wanted to make sure I wasn't kind of stepping into
a scenario where the ball was going to carry and
he was going to give up some long home runs.
But as Brian has so eloquently pointed out, city Field
tends to be a pretty good pitcher's park, and it
doesn't seem like the ball is going to carry more
than it than it normally would tonight.
Speaker 2: So that to me is favorable for Tong.
Speaker 1: Who everything else he's shown this year, the ability to
throw strikes to mix it up has been very, very good,
and I don't think that really changes here against the
Marlins lineup that you know, they're not they're not Triple
A by any means, but they still have a lot
of young guys, still still a lot of hitters that
are similar to the hitters that he's been facing, especially
you know, Kyle Stowers out. They are going to get
Connor Norby back tonight, So that's something to know if
you're if you're vetting the Marlins, you do you do
get Norby back, which is a big addition. But he's
not He's not Stours in my opinion. So I still
think that the Marlins lineup has has you have to
downgrade them a little bit since the injury. So yeah,
I could see so I could see Tong having some success.
On the other side, you've got Uri Perez who's been tremendous.
You know, expected era is under three expected batting averages
under to under the Mendoza line boys. One ninety eight
for Uri Perez expected batting average this year.
Speaker 2: That's awesome. That's a really good mark.
Speaker 1: I don't know that there's many UH starting pitchers in
the league with a better expected batting average than Uri
Perez right now. So I actually make the number here
seven and a half, and I'm seeing quite a few
eighths out there. I like the under here too, Brian.
That's probably the only way I would bet this game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Press is in the thirteen percentile in ground ball
percent so he's a flyball pitcher. Also, and I'm not
too worried about him giving up the home runs here,
So yeah, I think I did. I went five and
one overall yesterday, three to zero in baseball. It wasn't
anything I love, but everything I liked came in and
this one, my man, not card. I do like the
under in this one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And it gives me even more sort of confidence
to say that knowing that the park should play to
you know, should do its part here because again, those
are two I think you're going to see two very
good pitching performances and if they can get away with
giving up a couple of fly balls and don't leave
the ballpark, I think you're looking at something like three
to two, you know, four to three type game. Good
stuff there. Colin Gregory, just don't overlook the of Peyton
Toll today basing Paul schemes. Yeah, this one kind of
snuck up on me. Peyton Toll was in Double A.
He may have even been in a ball to start
the year. I know he spent most of his season
at Double A. Got to Worcester for a couple starts,
and Brian Leonard they the Red Sox must really like
what they see because they could have easily called up
Kyle Harrison in this spot, who's been much better at
Triple A and was of course the guy that they
traded Devers for. So you would think that the Red Sox,
you know, I guess maybe would have had him in
mind to get him up, try to see if they
could show the fan base, hey, this is this is
what we made the move for.
Speaker 2: But they said, nope, let's go with.
Speaker 1: The the prospect over Harrison, who's pitched.
Speaker 2: Well, that's that's I think. I want to make that point.
Speaker 1: Kyle Harrison has been great for Worcester over the last
like five six starts, and yet they're gonna go with Tolls.
So interesting stuff there. Hasn't had a much, hasn't had
a ton of time at Triple A. And then of
course we know all about Paul Schemes, who will be
opposing him at time Way Park tonight.
Speaker 2: So pirates Red Sox any lean for you here?
Speaker 3: Yeah, just imagine your first Major league started. You finally
get up there and you got to go against Paul
Skans in your first start. But you know, he's I'm
sure he's very happy to get a chance. We're taking
a look at the line here and I've read a
lot about about him. I don't know as much about
him as you do, so i'll you know, I'll let
you explain anything. But basically we're looking at sort of
a pick him right now. Boston's one o eight favorite
total eight to the under. Let's check out the ballpark
here before we look at that. Let's see Fenway Park,
win blowing out. Win's blowing out. They expect nineteen percent
more runs than a normal major league game. So with
the total right here at eight, that's that's a low
total anyway from Boston. Maybe maybe in the second half
of the game, after the shorters are out, maybe it
will be able to play some live and get the over.
But I obviously we love schemes, no doubt about it.
The guy's terrific. But even though he's as good as
he is, he's only eight and nine on the season
two point oh seven ERA two point five eight expected
zero point nine four. A way, when you take a
look at tolls, I don't have any of the information
on here since it was late. I've read about it,
the possibility that they would call him up, but the
sites that I use don't have him listed yet. Is
still you know, six o'clock in the morning out here
in Vegas, so both both spots where I look for
that kind of information, there's nothing there. So you know
more about him than I do, so I'll let you
explain it from that point.
Speaker 4: Everyone, please go to the replay of this show and
give us a comment and a like, and subscribe to
wager Talks YouTube channel because when people put single videos out,
you will get a notification on that, and we have
a lot of good cappers here at wagers Track. Go
visit our pages as well. So regarding this one, I'm
not going to mess with another picture that I don't
really know much about and doesn't have a lot of
experience at the major league level. What I do know
is that Paul Skins is really good. And what I
also know is I have Boston batting number nineteen out
of thirty in current forms, so I would probably look
at Boston's team total under here. The Pirates' bullpen's playing
really solid right now, and I'm surprised that I'm saying
that because I've never They've never really been known for
a team to have a great bullpen, but they're playing
really well right now. I would say Boston's team total
under either in the first five under one and a
half or in the game for three and a half.
If you stretch that to four and a half on
an alt I would take that under as well. I
don't think Boston's gonna crush schemes here. He did get
crushed by the rock Keys and the Brewers, but very
rare that he gets crushed, So I don't think he
will today either. No, that's the way I would go.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I you know, this is another one that's that's
eight on the total that I think maybe should be
seven and a half.
Speaker 2: But the Red Sox looked a little tired yesterday in
that game.
Speaker 1: I don't know if it was just they needed to
get out of town or whatever, but what was not
their sort of best performance. I didn't think they had
great at bats against Povic like and maybe they're just
kind of in need of a day off. I feel
like the Red Sox have played every day. Someone would
have to check that. I feel like they've played like
every day. I can't remember the last time they've had
a day off. But again, you know, if the dog
days are getting to you at all, Skeens is not
the guy you really want to go and have to
face if you know you're not totally locked in. Do you, guys,
before I get get in a toll, do you think
Skeens gets fired up to be at Fenway here, Like,
is this an exciting start for him?
Speaker 3: I would I would think so if you're a young player,
you don't get to play the America very often. Are
there may be Yankee Stadium in Fenway would probably be
the two, although it's not really Yankee Stadium anymore. By
the way, the last time the Red Sox had to
day off was on August twentieth, so it has not
that long. They had a break one day break after
playing Baltimore and taking out a New York. Yeah.
Speaker 4: I think these young guys would get fired up for
any of the traditional stadiums like Wrigley, Yankees, Boston Dodgers.
They get fired up for that stuff, I think a
lot more than the Guardians and the Royals.
Speaker 1: And it's an important point because, like, you know, you're
getting to the point of the season.
Speaker 2: It's September.
Speaker 1: The Pirates are clearly out of it, like there's there's
there's a couple of different ways that can go if
if a guy's gonna and and we've talked about this before,
like Schemes doesn't seem like one of those guys that's
ever really gonna like not like show up and give
the full effort. But like you know, there's mid September
Pirates playing a team that's out of it, or getting
to go to Fenway Park in a game that is
going to have a playoff atmosphere for the Red Sox
because of course, any Friday night at Fenway when the
team is half decent is always packed and it's going
to be a good atmosphere.
Speaker 2: I think I think Skeins might feed off.
Speaker 1: Of that a little bit. As far as totally. He
did start the or Toll however, you pronounce his name Brian.
He's a lefty, so you love him and you know
that's your your type of profile of a guy coming up.
He did start the year at high A. I only
get to see why. I only watched one of his
starts for Worcester.
Speaker 2: Was very good.
Speaker 1: Has has really dominated pretty much every level of minor
league baseball so far this year. One hundred and thirty
three strikeouts in ninety one and two thirds innings.
Speaker 2: It's pretty good.
Speaker 1: A zero nine to nine WHIP and his batting average
against in the minors this year is two oh three
at Triple A was one ninety three.
Speaker 2: So I kind of see why the Red Sox are
doing what they're doing.
Speaker 1: He's a lefty and they have to see right now, hey,
is this guy like is that small sample legit? Because
that's someone that could really help them in the postseason
if they've got a lefty no one knows about that
can come in even if he ends up being like
a long reliever, that that's it.
Speaker 2: Could be invaluable in the postseason.
Speaker 1: So, oh, the other thing I was gonna say, and
I'll go back to Brian, Pirates have been bottom five
all year in Major League Baseball WRC plus against left
handed pitching.
Speaker 2: I'd be shocked if they do much here, go ahead, Brian.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the Pirates have only won twenty road games
all season long. Just as we're talking about it, the
Red Sox are getting hit now. So I see upwards
of one twenty at Caesars.
Speaker 2: Oh wow, so time hit.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so they've gotten hit. It's it's basically one one
fifteen now for Boston, and I would expect that. And yeah,
maybe we should have done the Scape to lead off.
We might have got a better number.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say that.
Speaker 1: I think Red Sox you could have got minus one
o five when we were coming on air. I believe
is what I had jotted down. I still think under
eight has some value. I feel like if Totally is
any good, I think you're gonna get a really you know,
strong effort from schemes here. And if that's the case,
Tokyo Brandon made a good point. The Pirates do have
some bullpen arms, and I think today is the day
that that Lawrence will rejoin the team. So I said
yesterday when we were talking Pirates Cardinals, I don't think
that was logistically possible playing the day game. My guess
is you see Justin Lawrence out of the pen for
the Pirates tonight, who has really been one of their
better relievers this season, and he'll be coming back up
from Triple A. So yeah, Pirates have some decent bullpen arms.
It's a good a good point TV and markins and yes,
this is Totally's major league baseball debut again, started at
High A, so it's a big jump in season. We'll
see if you can handle it. That's too for me though,
I leen under right there, All right, let's let's keep
it moving, Travis. Let's go to Travis. Travis Holmes in
here every day, grinding and out. We appreciate all of you.
We appreciate you, Travis. But everyone that that comes in
interacts with the show on a daily basis, whether it
be live or on demand on the wager Talk YouTube channel.
Travis says, are the Dodgers gonna chase Gallon early? It's
hard to tell if the Dodgers are interested from day
to day. That's true, but Brian Leonard, they got to
be interested now, right because it's September. It's like playoff Baseball,
and they've got the Padres in striking distance.
Speaker 2: So this is gonna take us out West.
Speaker 1: This is Dodgers and they're gonna host Arizona tonight.
Speaker 2: Looks like Gallon versus Blake.
Speaker 1: Snow, what about Travis's question, what are your thoughts on
the Dodgers day to day and their and their sort
of mindset right now?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I mentioned that earlier. They get up for their
rivals in the division, and although Arizona is not having
a good season, they're eleven and a half games out.
Keep in mind just a couple of years ago they
went to the World Series. They get a lot of
good young talent on this team. Not a fan of Gallon,
I think he could get hit here. We're looking at
Snell's going for the Dodgers or lefty, and Snell's been
terrific when he's healthy. We're looking about a one ninety
favorite for the Dodgers total of eight and a half
to the under when I take a look at Gallen
comes in with a five point one to three e
er a four point seven to zero expected. He's haspitched
much better lately than he had in the first half
of the season, but his whip is still high one
point three to one and really doesn't have anything really
dark red on the on the stock Gas Patriots means
he struggled just about everything all season. He's better than
he was earlier, but he's not the way he was
in the past. Just last years he had a three
point sixty five ERA three point four to seven, so
he's had a down season and don't want to trust
him here against these Dodgers' bats. They still don't have
Monsie back. Munsey's such a huge addition to this Dodgers
lineup because he's since he's got his glasses, and TV
will tell you about that, but since he's got his glasses,
he's a much better hitter and he's been on fire
when he's been able to play. Snow comes in one
point nine seventy r a four point one seven expected
small sample size only thirty two innings, but he's been
a little bit lucky so far. Comes in with a
one point three to eight whip, which isn't really something
that he does. He does. He does have a high
walk rate, but that's because if he falls behind somebody,
he will put them on base and go after the
next guy. There's a few guys that have done that
and they've had a lot of success doing it. He's
wanted them that does that, so you have to keep
that in mind. But we know we were going to
get out of Snell, but he has been a little
bit lucky so far this year. But if I'm playing it,
I'm laying it because I don't want Zach any part
of Zach Gallon here. And this is the time, as
you mentioned, they only have a two git. Dodgers only
have a two game lead over the Padres, and the
Padres have matched up pretty well against him.
Speaker 4: I don't want any part of Zach Gallen either. Isn't
it funny Like when we were watching baseball in the
nineties and the two thousands, a five e R man
you got sent down. But now a five VR is
acceptable in Major League Baseball, which is crazy. A five
plusdras it means you're awful. Sorry, but it means you're awful.
And Zach Gallen has a five PLUSDRA. Uh, he's got
a one three to one whip, which is unusual. Here's
Blake Snell's numbers are quite unusual. Blake Snell has a
one three to nine whip or one three eight whip,
but his ERA is under two, so it means, uh,
he's he's he's gotten a little bit lucky. He's let
he's let a few guys, too many guys on base.
He's let more guys on base than Gallon, actually, but
he gets out of it and he's you know this,
this Dodgers. I have been trashing the Dodgers bullpen all season,
but actually I have them ranked thirteen in current form,
which is pretty good considering Arizona's is twenty two. So
what I really like here is Blake Snell's stats against
these batters in his career, and it's a really good
sample size of one hundred and two at bats against,
one eighty six average against it a six forty four OPS.
That's amazing. Gallon's numbers against the batters he's facing today
are pretty average, pretty even, not glaringly horrible, but not
very good. So if anything, one last stat about Blake
Snell at home in twenty innings, he's got a zero
nine zero ER. That's pretty amazing. So I don't think
there's any way you could look besides the Dodgers here,
the fact that they're they're top three there, they're big
three Freeman, Bets and Oltani, even if they're all three
cold in one game. The Dodgers have the luxury of
having someone in four, five, six, seven, eight nine to
step up, and the Diamondbacks I don't think have that
anymore since getting rid of Naylor and Suarez. So Dodgers
are nothing for me. Maybe take a minus one.
Speaker 1: I somewhat disagree with, like the Diamondbacks not having the
lineup anymore, because like, there's this lineup is still top
five in Baseball WRC plus and like they yeah, swers
and Naylor are big names and they probably cost them
some pop, but they their team speed and like there's
the ability to put the ball in play, score runs.
If Arizona's pitching didn't totally let them down this year,
this is an easy playoff team. Like easily they're in
the playoffs. But that's unfortunately what's happened to them. Guys
like Zach Gallen have not been as good as what
they've been historically. Was it Corbyn Burns right goes down
like early in the year, so you lose him. And
then of course the bullpen, which was supposed to be
a strainth like this was a bullpen that was supposed
to have Justin Martinez aj puck. It was supposed to
be a good bullpen. These guys get hurt and it's
been awful. Turnbuckle, Tommy, I see you yesterday. He had
he said his best bet was Orioles Red Sox under.
We talked about that game that got there easily. I said,
I agreed with him. I'm gonna ride with Turnbuckle. Tommy
here again, he says over in the Dodgers game, the Diamondbacks,
you know they they I think it's they didn't have
to say left handed pitching. They just hit pretty good,
like this is still a lineup that can really hit.
Speaker 2: They just smacked around everything the Brewers had to offer
for four days.
Speaker 1: And you want to talk about the other side of
that being, you know, the Arizona last they haven't had
a day off four days, seven to five, nine to eight, yesterday,
two days ago three to two where they needed top
bullpen arms, and then yesterday they hold on six to four.
Speaker 2: There's zero depth in that.
Speaker 1: Bullpen, so chances are if you get Gallon out early,
that means Gallon gave up a few runs. And that
also means you're getting cracks at this Diamondbacks bullpen, which
isn't very good. You look at a number like eight
and a half, Can you get something here from the Diamondbacks?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 2: I like Snell as much as the next person does.
Speaker 1: I don't know that you're gonna just totally shut this
Diamondbacks lineup down for nine straight in.
Speaker 2: So that eight and a half seems low.
Speaker 3: Tote.
Speaker 1: Big totals guy today, that's three games for me and
I have three totals. But that's another one where the
way I would play this would have to be the
over I think it's about a half run to a runoff.
So turbuckle Tommy, I'm with you. This feels like an
over right here, especially if if Arizona does anything here, that.
Speaker 2: One's going over the total in my opinion.
Speaker 1: Yeah, hit that like button, he says, one hundred likes,
and TV will smile. I don't know, TV's always smiling.
I'm the one that gets, yeah called out for being
too serious. TV's always smiling.
Speaker 2: But we'll take the place to hit the hit that
like anything but serious.
Speaker 4: You guys knew me.
Speaker 2: Oh no, I know. I was saying, I'm the one
that's that's you.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, you do.
Speaker 1: But yeah, we we appreciate it, like subscribe comment. It
really helps the show. So we very much appreciate that.
And we got we gotta go to this game. We
got boots on ground right here. Jack Barco said he
is going to be front row at the Twins game.
That's pretty awesome. Is that target Field? I've never dot,
Brian Leonard, have you been to target Field?
Speaker 3: No? Always, I've always wanted to go to Minnesota. I
think I'm gonna go next year. I just I've got
some people that i know they live there and I've
heard good things about it, and plus I want to
head up to maybe maybe Milwaukee too and go to
the Loney Coogle's brewery up there in an upper upper Wisconsin.
So maybe make it a make a little weekly trip
catch a few different ball games. Dude, I've been to St.
Louis beautiful.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll meet you in if you do the Twins
Park next summer, I'll take a ride up there. We
we host college baseball kids like It's something my fiance's
family has done in town for like a long time.
Speaker 2: We have a college team and one of the kids.
Speaker 1: That's lived with us for two years is going to
play in Minnesota, and I think he's going to try
to play in that Northwoods League next year. So I
need a reason to like get out to you know,
get out to Minnesota. I think Target that and target
Field would do it for me. So next summer we're
gonna go to target Field.
Speaker 2: Tonight.
Speaker 1: Jack Barco's going to target Field and he needs some
action while he's sitting right there front row, which is awesome.
He's gonna get to see Zebi Matthews probably pump fastballs
in there, you know, and throw a ton of strikes.
The question is is he going to see a Twins win.
I don't know the team that might catch the Dodgers, Brian,
the San Diego Padres Padres Twins.
Speaker 2: How are you seeing this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah, Padres Cortez, the lefty against Matthews, and we're looking
at basically a one thirty favorite for San Diego eight
and a half slightly to the over so target field.
It's playing pretty neutral in this game. Slight win to
the to the left field coming in, but nothing is
going to affect the game at all. When we're looking
at Cortes, he's got a four point sixty six ERA
five point five to four expected one point three four whip.
He's only not twenty nine thinks, so it's not quite
enough for the stackcast page to see a lot, but
what they do see are not good numbers. It is fastball, velosty,
six percent, extension, ten percent thross four steamer, cutter and
change and sweeper just about every time. I thinker one
percent of the time. But I do like lefties. And
he's coming in here against Zebbie Matthews, who has been
unfortunately at a disappointment at this level. We've talked about
him in the past, what he used to do last year,
what he's doing this year. But he still comes in
with a five point three OEI although they expected as
four point four zero. But his whip one point five
to two, and he's not walking people. He's seven point
seven percent, which is less than league average. It's he's
getting hit and he's in the thirteenth percent tile and
barrel rate fourteen or sixteenth percent tile and ground ball
rate and hard hit percent isn't very good either. So
he has not lived up to my expectations. And I'm
sure if you're a Twins fan, you're a little bit
frustrated also. But they're not going anywhere. They've got no
reason to to throw out older guys that aren't going
to be in their future, so they probably bring up
these younger guys. And I still think he's got a
bright future, but I can't trust him at this price
in this situation. If I played it, I would lay
it with Cortes on the road. And if you're looking
at that Central Division in the American League, the only
team with a positive run differential in the seasons the Tigers.
It's been a disappointing year in that division. After I
think they've got three teams to playoffs, either last year
or the year before. It's fallen on hard times. This year.
Speaker 4: Again we have Zebulon going against Nestor Cortes. Nest Cortez
has some weird, weird numbers. If you take a look
at his last five starts, he got blown up in
one of them. I mean he gave up four runs
in five innings. That's kind of getting blown up. If
you remove that, he hasn't given up more than two
runs in a start in five stars, it's pretty good numbers.
So looking at that, you think, oh, you know, cover
his name, and you think, oh, this is a pretty
good picture. Then you look at his numbers. He's got
a four to six six ERA. That's not good. He's
got a one three four WHIP that's not very good either.
So I am I'm perplexed here. His numbers look good
on his game log, but they don't look good on
his his his his actual statistics. However, he does have
good numbers against these Minnesota batters in his history. Problem
is those were probably acquired years ago. He's been in
the league.
Speaker 3: For a while.
Speaker 4: So that's the breakdown on Nestor Quartez. Now Zabbie Matthews.
He has not been very good at all. He's got
let's see four four two are at home. Not very good,
not terrible, not very good though, and he's given up
a lot of earned runs, given up nine earned runs
in his last three starts. He's given up four or
more earned runs three times in his last seven starts.
So I'm don't have a lot of faith in Zebu
Lant today. Who hits better. Well, they're both pretty much even.
But I don't think anyone would argue that Padres don't
have more talent. They certainly do, but they're not They're
They're kind of in a little quagmire here. The Padres are.
They have a lot more talent, and they have a
much better bullpen. I've said in shows past they've probably
got one of the top two bullpens in Major League Baseball.
So I would think you go with the Padres or
nothing here because we just talked about the Dodgers fighting
for a playoff position, while the Padres are the team
they're fighting with, uh, and I think they'll I think
they'll step it up here. I don't think Nester Cortez
is that bad. I don't think he's as bad as
Zebbie Matthews, let's put it that way.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Brian, I'm kind of with you on on Zebbi.
I expected more out of him this year. I think
this is a guy they'll don't give up on him
like this. This will be this a guy that you
want to be high on going into next season. Okay,
he still throws ninety seven. He has an excellent swing
and miss stuff. He is like a tweak or two
away from being really really good, And the problem is
it's it's very difficult to do that mid season at
the big league level. That's something like he needs a
big league off season going to spring, have everything go
right from a health standpoint, and if that happens, expect
him to come out and just be shutting dudes down
come next year.
Speaker 2: Like, I don't think he's that far off.
Speaker 1: And that's why I refuse to really debt against him
at this point because I just can't have that happen
to myself where it's like I decide to go against
him and oh suddenly it clicks and he comes out
and fire seven scoreless, because that is absolutely what his
ceiling is like. If he's a tweak or two away
from being like an ace in my opinion, So can't
can't fade, that can't really be you know.
Speaker 2: The other thing is too, I can't.
Speaker 1: Really bet the Twins, And I'll go to its Grant
in the comments says, you know, you never really know
what you're gonna get out of this Twins bullpen. He
calls it a triple a bullpen. That's a very reasonable assessment.
They traded away every leverage reliever they had, and so
now it's like you really don't know what you're getting
from the Twins from a release standpoint, and unlike the
White Sox, like this is kind of what the White
Sox have done for a while, but it's kind of
worked for them and they've shown like they've got some
good arms, whereas like the Twins, it's like they haven't
really shown any consistency in this department in my opinion,
since they traded all these guys away. And so, yeah, like,
even if the Twins have a good like maybe you
could take ZEBBI first five, but do you want this
Twins team full game? Especially going back to what TV said,
the Padres probably have the best leverage arms in the league.
I think it's safe to say the Padres leverage bullpen
arms or as good as it gets. And and I'm
with you TV, I would put the Padres bullpen one
or two as well. So this is tough. I'm just
gonna help pass. I'm gonna pass this over to Brian Leonard.
I have nothing here, go ahead.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I just wanted to point out the Cortes is
coming off as best start of the season, and it
was against the Dodgers. He wants six innings, only give
up one base runner. Did everything click and he figured
it out? Or did he just happen to have his
best start and you're backing him off his best start,
which is something I usually don't want to do. But
I think the way I'm gonna take a look at
this game is hope that Minnesota takes an early lead
and then come in and get San Diego with plus
money because of that bullpen as you met, as was mentioned,
huge bullpen discrepancy between these two and the Padres bullpen
as Padres the match. There's a lot of great bullpens
out there, but they're one of the best, and so
I want them in the second half of this game.
So that's how I'm gonna look at it. If you're
betting it live, wait till Minnesota takes the lead in
the game, and then just come back and bet to
the Padres.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to this one. This is a
let's go to the al Central here. I have an
opinion in this one, and we may have. We're twenty
three minutes away from the end of the show. Haven't
locked in any any parlay legs, but I think that
might change here. That being said, I'm gonna let Brian
Leonard kick us off Tigers Royals. Brian, this is your
Royals team here. You were the one that said, hey,
why is no one talking about the Royals. They had
a nice trade deadline. If anyone's gonna sneak back in it,
maybe it's them. A huge series at home for them
here against the Tigers.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're now up to a thirteen chance of making
the making the playoffs, having trouble finding it on. Okay,
here we go. Current line on this one. We've got
Detroit with Javier or excuse me, a wrong game, wrong game? Sorry,
I did you try with a paddock against Logo? Yeah,
Detroit's not playing well. Kansas City has been hit better
than they have earlier. In this season. I'd kind of
like logo here. I thought the line should have been higher.
I would have said maybe one thirty would be the
opening line on this game with Lugo, and you can
get them for you know, there's many places out there
you can get them for less than one twenty, but
one twenty is about the average total of nine in
this one. Paddick's the guy that I'm usually trying to fade,
and he comes in. He's very good at the walk
grate doesn't walk a lot of players. He's in the
ninety first percentile, the walk rate ninety second and extension
because he's six foot five and eighty fourth in chase,
but everything else is in the blue. Comes in with
a four point ninety eight and excuse me, four point
nine to eight ERA four point eight three expected. His
last year as ERA was four point nine to nine
the year before five point four zero. I know ERA
is not the perfect stat, but it gives you an
idea on what we can expect out of him, but
expecting bad again. Average eleventh percentile with right fourteenth, stric
out of rate thirteenth or hit twenty first, ground ball
twenty third. So he's a flyball pitcher in Kansas City.
Kansas City's normally a pretty good place the limits for
fly balls for home runs, but it's been up a
little bit this year. It's played a little bit differently
than it has in the past. And he's going against
Lugo Seth Lugo. If you take a look at his
tack gas page, there's no red on it. He's a
ten year veteran, he's thirty five years old. He's not
going to beat you with his stuff. He's going to
beat you with guile. And even though his ERA is
at three point ninety nine this year, for the last
two years it was three and three point five seven
is expected as five point one to nine. But if
you go back and look at what he's done through
his entire career, the east of the last five years
has outperformed is expected era. And that's because he throws
a lot of junk up there. He throws what is it, one, two, three, four,
nine different pitches, two of them only one in two
percent of the time. But he's got the most he
throws is his cutter at twenty three percent. I love
these pictures. And if you don't get a major strikeouts,
he struck one hundred and twenty one hundred and forty
two innings. He doesn't ur to strike out per inning.
He's a guy that we find, at least I find
a lot of value on because a lot of people
will look and they want the guys to strike people out.
Of course you do. That means that the ball isn't
in play and you don't have to worry about the
Yankees defense having another error. It's the kind of thing
that you do. So I'd like Kansas City here. I
think there's a value on him. I would have made
it one thirty, so that gives us a little bit
of an advantage here on Kansas City, and you can
get it as low as you know. One's sixteen out
there right now.
Speaker 4: Couldn't agree with Brian Moore. I like Lugo too, And
I love these kind of pitchers that have tons of
different pitches that they can throw because they last longer
and they tend to be the cerebral type pictures. These
are the kind of pictures I enjoy watching. And uh
so I'm a big Lugo fan. I actually am. And
I Paddock is awful. Sorry, he's just bad and on
the road, he's got like a five six ERA on
the road, pretty bad numbers against these Kansas City batters.
Lugo at home as a three two ARA really nice.
He's got a one to two four whip on the season,
very nice at three nine nine ERA, which is pretty
nice as well. And looking you know, I mean looking
at his his last few starts, Yeah, he had, he
had a couple of rough starts. I mean three of
his last four starts were rough. But I think he's
going to bounce back here. I like Lugo at home.
As a matter of fact, I'm gonna make this my
parlay leg. I think Royal's minus one twenty on the
money line will be my leg for today.
Speaker 2: Love it. That's what I was gonna do, And I'm
fine with that. No, that's fine.
Speaker 1: I'm glad you did that because I have other opinions
and I'd rather have someone else take it.
Speaker 2: So that's so that's perfect. What are we what are
we looking at for money lying there right now?
Speaker 3: Brian? Yeah, about one twenty or.
Speaker 2: So, I think I am.
Speaker 4: I like Lugo too, you know, I just I just
love all the tools he's got and he's just he's
not a flamethrower, but I just like watching a pitch.
He's fun to watch.
Speaker 1: So I got a question for well, really, this could
be for the chat or it's for for both of you.
Does anyone see al Central betting odds right now out
there like to win the division? Because I just checked
four different sites and for whatever reason, they don't have
the AL Central Yeah, why I have?
Speaker 3: They won't. It's the Tiger's got eight percent chance of
making the playoffs. They're eight and a half games behind
with with twenty eight games to go. Yeah, that's the no.
If you had a chance about Detroit there, that's as
close to the lock as you could probably get.
Speaker 1: Right, I see what you're saying. If you had a
chance about Detroit. Listen, the Royals could put The Royals
could put a little pressure on them this week, and
if they can, if they have a good series, especially
if they were to sweep eight and a half back,
the Royals have a very manageable September schedule. They're gonna
get three head to head games here with the Tigers.
They're probably gonna win tonight. I like them tonight as well,
So that's why I was asking Pizza money on the
Royals to win this division is not crazy the Tigers.
Speaker 2: Let's say this Titans up.
Speaker 1: Let's say the Royals have a good weekend, they get
it down to six and a half or five and
a half, and they're able to sort of chill there.
Speaker 2: Maybe they make up a game or two.
Speaker 1: The Tigers end the season with a pretty tough road trip,
it's gonna be it's gonna be Cleveland and Boston for
the Tigers at the end of the year. The Royals
for the most part, very favorable September schedule.
Speaker 2: So maybe it's not to win the division.
Speaker 1: But if you're looking at like Royals to make the playoffs,
anything pro Royals, I think I'm okay with that, and
I would just take flyers on them every where, because
they've got a home series here against Detroit, who is
just playing awful. They just aren't playing good ball, and
I don't see I think they're at a disadvantage here
for the reasons that the Boys have described already.
Speaker 2: I'm not going to rehash that.
Speaker 1: But then for the Royals, it's home against the Angels,
home against the Twins. Those two teams are out of
it at Cleveland. That's manageable. The Phillies trip will be tough,
but then it's Mariners and Blue Jays bolt at home.
By that point, the Jays might be just going through
the motions, resting guys.
Speaker 2: They'll probably have it wrapped up.
Speaker 1: And then they finish up with the Angels in the
A's that's much more favorable than the Tigers in my opinion,
who are going to have the Mets the Yankees, and
then they finish on the road against two teams that
might still need wins. So Royals to make the playoff,
I would ladder the Royals if you can win the
Al Central, make the playoffs and all different things. It's
a lotto ticket to an extent, but one that's more
realistic than people think. And then, as far as today
TV took the parlay leg right out of my mouth,
Royals money is a great bet my opinion. That's okay,
I'll write that down. So we're gonna start it with
the Royals. I love that, and uh let's see, let's
see Greg Ross says hate hate to go off topic.
Speaker 2: Met's better play that.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I thought, okay, yeah, anyway, uh yeah, Jonah talk.
We started the show with that. So if you're if
you're looking for Mets. If you are looking for Mets,
Marlins and our opinions on that one. That was the
beginning of the show. David says, the Jays will play
it out for the division. How about tonight, Brian Leonard,
is this a world series preview?
Speaker 2: In your opinion? We've got Blue Jays Brewers.
Speaker 1: My gut tells me one of these teams isn't getting there,
but they're both certainly in the conversation and they're gonna
play each other tonight in a in a sort of
a rare interleague series.
Speaker 2: So Jays Brewers, how are you seeing this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is one that kind of popped out to
me early on. I haven't done any I haven't put
up any plays yet at this point, but this is
one that I thought had a little bit of value
if I can get to the spot here. Jason, Okay,
we know that Milwaukee is does not need the wins.
They've got a pretty good sizeable lead in the division.
Milwaukee comes in six and a half above the Cubs.
The Cubs continue to falter. They're on a three game
losing street coming into this game here. But Milwaukee, I
like the way they use their lineup. Everybody plays, so
they've got guys. Even though they might rest a star
once in a while, they've got other guys that can
get into lineup. They do very well with the lefty
righty situation. They're one of the best coach teams in baseball.
Despite leaving the closer in to get hurt the other day. Okay,
I'm over it, But when you take a look at
the line in this game, I think there's value on them.
They got Freddy Peroul to go in here against Shane Bieber.
Now love Shane, great guy, huge, huge character in Cleveland.
I wish him all the best. And he comes out
and throws a gem in his first start off the IL.
It's been a long time, so see his pitched. I
think people are believing, they're becoming believers in Bieber, and
I don't know if I'm there yet. The line right
now is about the one thirty range, and you're getting
a total of either eight and a half hunder or
seven and a half or excuse me, eight hunder or
seven and a half over to get Milwaukee, and you
can give Milwaukee upwards of one to twenty in this game.
I find value in that. Freddy pearlt is having an
outstanding year one of my favorite handicappers that handicapped pitchers
has moved him up in the top five in Major
League Baseball this year. He said he's he's a guy
that deserves it, and I agree. He's had a hell
of a hell of a season. It comes in with
a two point six eight ERA three point four five whip,
one point excuse me, three point four to five expected
one point one oer whip. The only thing he does
that's not good is twenty seven percent of ground ball rate.
So he is a fly ball pitcher, and he does
tend to walk batters. He's walked nine point four of
this season, just about one and a half more than
the league average. I liked Reddy Peralta. I like the
Milwaukee bullpen for the most part. Shane Bieber guy, as
I mentioned, he came in pitched great a one point
five oh ERA zero point three to three whip, but
his expected RA was three point four two. Now if
he comes out with a three point four to two
in that game instead of the one point five zero,
maybe people aren't betting on Shane Baber as much as
they are right now. Obviously, it's only six innings, so
it's a small sample size, so there's not a lot there.
But keep in mind he only threw one hundred and
sixty six pitches last year, which is basically two games really,
and they didn't pitch again, you know, since twenty twenty three,
so it's been a long time he's out. I'm not
buying that. It's worked for the Brewers, one of the
Brewers pitchers anyway, he's come back and looked really good
all year long. But I can't expect that here. And
this is a pretty good hitting ballpark. So I like
Milwaukee in this game. In fact, I'm gonna use that
as my part of the parlor here. I'm gonna take Milwaukee.
We can get let's let's go one sixteen. You can
get better than that, but we'll go one sixteen on
my part of the parlor here with Milwaukee.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Guys, go to the replay and leave a comment
and a like, and subscribe to wager Talk's YouTube channel.
It goes a long way. It tells Wayger Talk that
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valuable as just giving you a place. So yeah, and
check our pages out at waygyatalk dot com. We got
a lot of stuff up. Usually we have free plays
almost every day. So regarding this one, this is going
to be a great game to watch because these are
too well put together teams and these are two really
good pictures. I like, you know, if you look at
the numbers against the batters they're facing today, Peralta, his
sample size is small against these Blue Jays, twenty four
at bats against but a one sixty seven average and
a five sixty four ops. It's amazing. Justin Bieber thirty
eight against and two to eleven average and a six
thirty seven ops. Yes, I said that on purpose, you guys.
So my first inclination would be to take an under.
But Toronto, man, they're batting number three in MLB right
now as far as run production and current form. Hard
to take a an under with that. And like Brian mentioned,
I was going to mention the same thing. Parolta's walk
rate is a little bit too high for me. But
the way He's dominated these batters. It's only twenty something
at bats against, but he's absolutely dominated them. So I'm
definitely not going to bet an under with Toronto. If anything,
maybe a Milwaukee under, but the fact that Bieber still
has only one start since he came back and not
a big enough sample size for me. If he if
he had three starts where he was just shut down,
then maybe I would take a take a Milwaukee under here,
but I'm not going to do it today.
Speaker 1: I miss when they used to let the players put
their names on the back of the jerseys.
Speaker 2: For players together.
Speaker 1: That yeah, because Shane Bieber had one of the more
famous ones. He just had not justin on the back
of his jersey, and I feel like it like got
probab you know that that and uh, the most famous
one will always be Dick Mountain.
Speaker 2: Of course that that's Rich Hill from Players Weekend, but famous.
Speaker 3: Yeah, he hates.
Speaker 4: In the XFL.
Speaker 1: XFL this actually so now so not even joking. I
would have used Brewers as my parlay league. Here are
some fashion or some way. I didn't know if I
was going to do Brewers or maybe a Brewers team
total over, but Brian made made that easy for me.
Speaker 2: He put Brewers in the parlay.
Speaker 1: I want to point out, like Baber had quite a
quite a long rehab. He was coming off of a
very serious injury that that you know, it's like a
long term, sort of a long recovery type thing.
Speaker 2: Uh. He had a very cushy rehab run. Okay. Uh,
he was in Triple A.
Speaker 1: He he had his whole deal through the lower levels
in three starts of Triple A. He faced Syracuse before
all the young guys like the Ryan Clifford, Carson, Benji,
all those guys came up terrible lineup. He faced Worcester
after their lineup was pretty much already depleted, so it
was probably just Justins and Garcia and like nobody else.
And then he faced Lehigh Valley who they didn't they
didn't recent they didn't get like Mercado and Otto Kemp
back until like last week. So so he pretty much
had three very watered down, poor Triple A lineups.
Speaker 2: And then of course what does he get in his
in his.
Speaker 1: Twenty twenty five debut a Marlins team without Kyle Stowers.
So he's had a very fortunate run. And I think
people are gonna look and say oh wow, one ninety era,
twenty three point two innings. This is his August numbers
right here, Ladies and gentlemen, twenty three and two thirds,
a one ninety era, a zero point eight zero whip.
Speaker 2: The Brewers are.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be a little bit of a different ballgame
tonight because this is a team whether they're playing, whether
they're like going all out or not. From like a
managerial standpoint, he's still gonna have to deal with the
Brewers lineup one through nine. They get on, they steal bases,
they put a lot of pressure on you. The reason
that they were losing games to the Diamondbacks was not
their offense. They hit the ball just fine. It's that
Arizona put some runs up in that series. So yeah,
I think Bieber might have he might be. It's not
gonna be as easy, And if the Brewers don't win
this game, I do think they'll hit their team total
of over three and a half. So just another way
to look at it, I think Bieber's gonna give some
some runs up in this one and three and a
half seems cheap on the team total, But I like
the way Brian went for the parlay here. Brewers, money
lines great value. Anything better than even money, in my opinion,
is really good value. Right there, I gotta find a game. Now,
that's back to back games.
Speaker 2: I thought I was. I was locking in the parlay leg,
and now I got to find a game.
Speaker 1: So let's see. Let me let's pivot right here. And
that's the other thing I even I hadn't really like
I committed too much yet today and the two things
I kind of had jotted down at this point were
Brewers and Royals. So let's see if we can find
when the Let's see if we can find when to
close this out.
Speaker 4: We can make it a two leg.
Speaker 2: Well, I mean under Yeah, you know what, let's let's
do that.
Speaker 1: I think my two strongest opinions were the totals that
we talked about earlier, maybe the three.
Speaker 2: I had three totals, So watch me pick the wrong
run one wrong one right.
Speaker 1: Here now, just kidding, like you know there, listen if
you go back to the beginning, the beginning of the show,
and as always, these shows are up live and on demand.
Speaker 2: I picked I had three totals.
Speaker 1: I talked about Mets Marlin's under Red Sox Pirates, under Dodgers,
Diamondbacks over. If I had to pick the strongest of
those three, I think it's Mets Marlins based on the
fact that Brian kind of confirmed what I was my
thought with the ballpark factors and the fact that it
doesn't look like the ball is going to carry a ton,
and the fact that City Field has played better toward
pitching and towards fly ball pitching this year.
Speaker 2: So is that still under eight, Brian? That's Marlin.
Speaker 3: You can get under eight. It's more like one twenty
right now, or you'd start or seven and a half
a deep in money.
Speaker 2: No, we'll go under eight minus one twenty. I want
that eight.
Speaker 1: So and we already and you you got us some
nice plus money in the parley with the Brewers, So
I'm good with that. Let's go under eight minus one
twenty and the Royals? Was that also minus one twenty?
Speaker 3: Do we decide that was minus one twenty? Yes?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not gonna rehash that game. We we did
that extensively at the top. But I do think if
I had to pick my favorite total on the board today,
it's that one, and that'll that'll be the third leg
of the parley. So this is good. One we need
one of these. This is six, this is plus six
twenty six. We desperately need a parlay win to get
ourselves back ahead on the parlays this season, and that's
what it's gonna be. So Parlay of the day Trigg
total nets, Marlins under eight. Brian Leonard's going with an
underdog on the Brewers plus money plus one sixteen Tokyo
Brandon on the Royals minus one twenty not that six
to one or six six twenty six plus six.
Speaker 2: Winning six better than six to one.
Speaker 1: Hopefully we can finish this week with a with a
a winning parlay. I think I can't remember the last
time I think we had do we hit one on Monday.
Speaker 2: Maybe it was a smaller one.
Speaker 3: I think it was maybe something. Anyway, that's been it's
been a while since we've been a three teamer. We're due, yeah, parlay.
It's hard to you know, I don't bet parlays, but
most of the time we're winning two out of three.
But you know, we've had days where we've gone on three.
I mean, it happens, but we've got three and all
more and we've gone on three for.
Speaker 1: Sure, And I like this one a lot obviously, because
I was gonna pick the two legs you guys picked,
and I got to add my total in there.
Speaker 2: So that's one more time three team parlay.
Speaker 1: We've got Royal's money line for Tokyo Brandon, We've got
Brewers money line for Brian Leonard, and I'm gonna come in.
It's tong time at City Field tonight. Jonah tong Ury Perez.
I think both they're gonna pitch. Well, I'll call it
a three to two final. You're gonna see under eight eight,
under eight Mets Marlins plus six twenty six. That's it
for the week. Andy Lank says, great week of shows. Andy,
we appreciate it. Tuning in. Go tune into wager Talk
today noon Eastern on the wager Talk YouTube channel. If
that's gonna get you ready for the college football weekend.
College football is back. I don't know if I said,
I don't know if the Qus have a chance tomorrow
against Tennessee, but maybe we'll see. Hopefully they can give
us a competitive game. I've got some friends going down
to Atlanta for that one. Everyone enjoyed the football this
weekend and the baseball I know we'll be enjoying the
Baseball Like and subscribe and we'll see you guys back
here Monday morning.
Speaker 2: Have a great weekend, everybody,