WEBVTT 1 00:00:05.200 --> 00:00:08.519 Welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. I'm your host, Tony Edward. 2 00:00:08.640 --> 00:00:11.000 On your way in. Please sit that subscribe button as 3 00:00:11.000 --> 00:00:13.720 well as the thumbs up button and leave a comment below. Folks, 4 00:00:13.759 --> 00:00:16.039 those of you watching on YouTube can probably tell I 5 00:00:16.079 --> 00:00:18.879 am not in my studio and hopefully the breeze here 6 00:00:18.920 --> 00:00:20.719 from the beach he is not bothering you. But I 7 00:00:20.760 --> 00:00:24.320 am recorded from Cancun, Mexico, on vacation with the family, 8 00:00:24.600 --> 00:00:26.399 and I wanted to make this quick video to talk 9 00:00:26.399 --> 00:00:28.960 about what I'm expecting for crypto in twenty twenty six. 10 00:00:29.480 --> 00:00:31.920 Twenty twenty five has been a bit disappointing. I know 11 00:00:31.960 --> 00:00:35.759 a lot of you are expecting something different, essentially what 12 00:00:35.799 --> 00:00:39.439 we've seen in the past bullmarkets blow off tops. Now 13 00:00:39.960 --> 00:00:42.240 I have a thesis I've been sharing with you all 14 00:00:42.280 --> 00:00:45.359 that I think there's two scenarios that could play out. 15 00:00:45.399 --> 00:00:49.399 One we see a relief rally and bitcoint doesn't go 16 00:00:49.439 --> 00:00:51.640 to a new all time high. We have alts move 17 00:00:52.039 --> 00:00:54.359 a bit, but it's not to necessarily a new all 18 00:00:54.399 --> 00:00:56.719 time high, or some of them could go to new 19 00:00:56.759 --> 00:01:00.159 all time highs, or the bullmarket continues. Now I'm sure 20 00:01:00.200 --> 00:01:03.240 many of you been seeing silver is hitting you all 21 00:01:03.320 --> 00:01:06.319 time highs I think across seventy one bucks this week, 22 00:01:06.359 --> 00:01:08.680 and then you had gold now is breaking out again. 23 00:01:09.120 --> 00:01:11.079 So what have we seen throw so far in this 24 00:01:11.120 --> 00:01:14.680 bull market that precious metals gold has been a leading indicator, 25 00:01:14.959 --> 00:01:18.280 and there's a correlation right when gold is moving, bitcoin 26 00:01:18.359 --> 00:01:20.840 is cool down. The stock market's cool down when gold 27 00:01:20.920 --> 00:01:24.400 is correcting, you know, device versus happening. So there's some 28 00:01:24.680 --> 00:01:29.280 optimism there to say that this bull market could potentially continue. 29 00:01:29.519 --> 00:01:33.000 In addition, you have the FED which has started quantitative easing. 30 00:01:33.359 --> 00:01:36.200 We're in the easy money cycle. Rates continue to be cut. 31 00:01:36.400 --> 00:01:38.640 They're going to inject tons of liquidity. And not just 32 00:01:38.680 --> 00:01:42.079 the FED, but we saw Japan approve a one hundred 33 00:01:42.120 --> 00:01:45.200 and something billion dollars stimulus. I don't remember the exact number. 34 00:01:45.200 --> 00:01:47.319 I think one hundred and eighteen billion. So all that 35 00:01:47.359 --> 00:01:50.400 liquidity will make its way into markets. And you have 36 00:01:50.439 --> 00:01:52.200 other central banks that are going to do the same thing. 37 00:01:52.879 --> 00:01:56.439 So what's happening here? This is such a weird dichotomy. 38 00:01:56.519 --> 00:02:00.519 You have Tradify adopting crypto rapid pace of all this 39 00:02:00.640 --> 00:02:03.599 liquidity that's starting to build up now, yet the price 40 00:02:03.640 --> 00:02:06.040 action doesn't reflect that, and a lot of people are saying, hey, 41 00:02:06.079 --> 00:02:09.319 look the market is top. It's done for bitcoin, nothing else, right, 42 00:02:09.599 --> 00:02:11.840 But you know, looking at the market and looking at 43 00:02:11.879 --> 00:02:15.159 what the macro backdrop is and the fundamentals, it is 44 00:02:15.199 --> 00:02:17.800 so weird because the charts are showing some bear signals 45 00:02:17.840 --> 00:02:22.039 while the fundamentals like crypto adoption and the macro is 46 00:02:22.159 --> 00:02:25.840 at this epic level like we've never seen before. So 47 00:02:26.400 --> 00:02:29.520 I do think there is one moral leg I think 48 00:02:29.560 --> 00:02:33.560 a move to a blow off top is still still 49 00:02:33.560 --> 00:02:36.120 in the cards for us. I could be absolutely wrong, 50 00:02:36.240 --> 00:02:38.400 and yes, you guys are probably coming to common section 51 00:02:38.479 --> 00:02:40.759 and kill me if I'm wrong, But obviously do your 52 00:02:40.800 --> 00:02:44.080 own research. This is not financial advice. I'm just sharing 53 00:02:44.319 --> 00:02:50.199 my thesis from my research. And look, I know that 54 00:02:50.199 --> 00:02:53.199 may seem impossible right now, but I can't ignore the 55 00:02:53.280 --> 00:02:56.719 macro factors. I can't ignore that markets move based on liquidity, 56 00:02:57.240 --> 00:02:59.599 and we are, like I said, in that easy money 57 00:02:59.639 --> 00:03:02.599 cycle where it's going to be cheaper to borrow capital 58 00:03:02.599 --> 00:03:05.080 because rates are lower. The Fed and the other central 59 00:03:05.120 --> 00:03:10.280 banks are inserting liquidity. You have incredible adoption from tradifi companies, 60 00:03:10.319 --> 00:03:14.560 banks launching crypto trading, ETFs, tokenizing, and much more. The 61 00:03:14.599 --> 00:03:18.560 SEC has passed or approved tons of all coin ETFs. 62 00:03:18.879 --> 00:03:21.759 So it's so weird that these things are there, these 63 00:03:21.800 --> 00:03:24.759 on rams and these major adoption items while we're heading 64 00:03:24.800 --> 00:03:27.680 into a bear market. It doesn't seem right. And we 65 00:03:27.759 --> 00:03:30.360 know the banks and tradifi they want to make money. 66 00:03:30.639 --> 00:03:34.199 So what they launch their services in a bear market? 67 00:03:34.560 --> 00:03:36.719 Why would they not launch it and then have a 68 00:03:36.759 --> 00:03:39.840 blowof top to make the money right? And you look 69 00:03:39.840 --> 00:03:43.680 at ETF inflows, they continue to trickle in digital acid 70 00:03:43.680 --> 00:03:46.759 treasury companies keep buying. Not to mention, you have crypto 71 00:03:46.840 --> 00:03:50.520 companies looking to do IPOs in twenty twenty six, in 72 00:03:50.520 --> 00:03:54.759 addition to traditional tech companies like AI companies. So why 73 00:03:54.800 --> 00:03:57.639 the dichotomy? This is why I'm posing this question because 74 00:03:57.639 --> 00:03:59.680 I want you to think about it. It's what I've 75 00:03:59.719 --> 00:04:01.719 been thinking thinking about. It is what I've been noodling on, 76 00:04:01.879 --> 00:04:05.599 like just this is so weird. Now part of maybe 77 00:04:05.639 --> 00:04:08.520 the issue. You know, a lot of people get caught 78 00:04:08.560 --> 00:04:11.400 up in that four year cycle. I think the four 79 00:04:11.439 --> 00:04:15.560 year cycle was initially driven by maybe the having and 80 00:04:15.639 --> 00:04:18.480 the psychology of the having, but liquidity was the true 81 00:04:18.560 --> 00:04:22.279 driver of the markets. And this liquidity cycle has been 82 00:04:22.279 --> 00:04:25.040 disrupted and pushed back, like I said earlier, by the terriffs. 83 00:04:25.120 --> 00:04:28.000 The terriffs change the timeline. And then plus you got 84 00:04:28.040 --> 00:04:30.519 Trump looking to do the stimulus checks and much more. 85 00:04:31.040 --> 00:04:33.800 Not to mention, the Clarity Act is up to be 86 00:04:34.199 --> 00:04:37.319 passed in January. You know, David Sachs came out and said, hey, look, 87 00:04:37.360 --> 00:04:39.560 we're going to get this done in January. Members of 88 00:04:39.560 --> 00:04:43.240 the Senate have also said the same thing. So it 89 00:04:43.399 --> 00:04:48.279 is so strange, folks. I've been here since twenty twenty six, 90 00:04:48.399 --> 00:04:51.279 so it is a really an interesting time to be 91 00:04:51.319 --> 00:04:53.879 in the market. But look, there's a saying time in 92 00:04:53.920 --> 00:04:56.319 the market is better than better than trying to time 93 00:04:56.360 --> 00:04:59.279 the market. The only thing that's really hard is our 94 00:04:59.319 --> 00:05:02.439 emotions and our need to get those profits right. I 95 00:05:02.480 --> 00:05:04.639 know we all have life goals. I do as well. 96 00:05:04.959 --> 00:05:06.439 I've told you, guys what I want to do with 97 00:05:06.439 --> 00:05:09.000 the money right, and I'm sure many of you have, 98 00:05:09.079 --> 00:05:11.160 you know, started making your plans on the profits you 99 00:05:11.199 --> 00:05:15.399 could potentially make. But we've seen, guys, markets are cyclical, 100 00:05:15.600 --> 00:05:18.920 and you know, even if let's say, for what some 101 00:05:18.959 --> 00:05:21.600 odd reason, I don't know what it is, this this 102 00:05:21.759 --> 00:05:25.800 round or this cycle, maybe it's the terriffs that killed everything. 103 00:05:26.959 --> 00:05:29.199 Even if we just have a relief rally and we 104 00:05:29.319 --> 00:05:32.839 have to wait longer, I'm personally prepared to wait. I 105 00:05:32.879 --> 00:05:34.879 have not taking profits, and I know some of you 106 00:05:34.959 --> 00:05:37.040 are saying, Tony, you're crazy, but I don't necessarily need 107 00:05:37.040 --> 00:05:38.959 the money right now. Now if I was certainly in 108 00:05:39.000 --> 00:05:41.480 need of the money, and there's nothing wrong with taking profits, 109 00:05:41.560 --> 00:05:44.639 right you do what's best for you, what's best for 110 00:05:44.680 --> 00:05:48.000 your family and your finances. I'm okay right now, even 111 00:05:48.040 --> 00:05:50.040 though I have those ambitions and goals that I want 112 00:05:50.079 --> 00:05:53.519 to use the money and so forth. But my portfolio 113 00:05:53.720 --> 00:05:55.879 is up because I've been buying since, you know, December 114 00:05:55.879 --> 00:05:59.040 twenty twenty two January twenty twenty three. And I'll see 115 00:05:59.040 --> 00:06:01.800 what this relief rally looks like, and maybe i'll take 116 00:06:01.839 --> 00:06:04.279 some profits on some all coins that you know, I 117 00:06:04.319 --> 00:06:07.439 want to kind of get rid of. I don't necessarily 118 00:06:07.439 --> 00:06:09.399 want to keep holding them, and I'll let you guys 119 00:06:09.399 --> 00:06:12.399 know when I do take profits. But it's a strange one. 120 00:06:12.439 --> 00:06:16.879 But again, for my research, in studying and looking at 121 00:06:16.920 --> 00:06:19.600 what's happening, I still think there's one more leg in 122 00:06:19.639 --> 00:06:22.000 this market, and then that'll lead us to a true 123 00:06:22.040 --> 00:06:24.120 blow off top. So again it could be that as 124 00:06:24.120 --> 00:06:26.120 we enter into Q one Q two of next year, 125 00:06:26.680 --> 00:06:29.480 the Clarity Act gets past, liquidity starts making its way 126 00:06:29.519 --> 00:06:31.920 from these central banks around the globe, including the Fed. 127 00:06:31.959 --> 00:06:35.079 Of course, capital is cheaper because they've continued to cut rates. 128 00:06:35.839 --> 00:06:38.279 You've got Traad five building these huge on rams. More 129 00:06:38.560 --> 00:06:42.759 capital comes into this market. Trump and his administration gives 130 00:06:42.800 --> 00:06:45.839 the two k tariff stimulus checks if you want to 131 00:06:45.839 --> 00:06:48.920 call on that to people, and then you have once 132 00:06:48.959 --> 00:06:52.920 again a blow off top. And you know, again some 133 00:06:52.920 --> 00:06:55.560 of the signals there is the stock market still looks good, 134 00:06:55.600 --> 00:06:59.000 gold and silver leading, so there's a lot of macro 135 00:06:59.160 --> 00:07:03.079 factors here that are just screaming. This thing is not over. 136 00:07:03.240 --> 00:07:06.439 Liquidity is not drying up. It's actually expanding now. But 137 00:07:06.839 --> 00:07:08.800 you know, well, we're gonna have to wait and see, folks. 138 00:07:09.399 --> 00:07:11.199 I wish I had a crystal ball, or like I 139 00:07:11.199 --> 00:07:13.279 said before, I had the time machine from Back to 140 00:07:13.319 --> 00:07:16.279 the Future movie. I can go go to the future 141 00:07:16.319 --> 00:07:18.000 and come back and tell you guys, what's the deal. 142 00:07:18.040 --> 00:07:23.000 But you know, personally, I'm just going to keep holding 143 00:07:23.360 --> 00:07:25.439 and again, you do what's best for you. You know, 144 00:07:25.480 --> 00:07:28.000 people are gonna call me names and say all kinds 145 00:07:28.000 --> 00:07:30.720 of things. But you know, I like to take a logical, 146 00:07:30.800 --> 00:07:33.279 reasonable approach. I'm not telling you to follow me. If 147 00:07:33.279 --> 00:07:35.000 you want to take profits, you do what you got 148 00:07:35.000 --> 00:07:37.759 to do. Maybe if it's on the relief rally or 149 00:07:37.920 --> 00:07:40.240 I gain, could be the continuation of the bull market. 150 00:07:40.240 --> 00:07:42.279 But we're gonna have to wait and see. I mean, 151 00:07:42.360 --> 00:07:45.240 you can even tell right now that there's no Santa rally, 152 00:07:45.240 --> 00:07:47.959 there's no Christmas rally. And look, we've still got some 153 00:07:48.040 --> 00:07:50.319 days left in the market till the end of the year. 154 00:07:50.360 --> 00:07:54.920 But clearly very different. Right even though gold, the gold 155 00:07:54.959 --> 00:07:58.000 and silver people are probably really happy right now. But 156 00:07:58.160 --> 00:08:00.279 congrats to you if you're holding gold and so I 157 00:08:00.360 --> 00:08:02.439 have a little bit. I don't have much where I can, 158 00:08:02.680 --> 00:08:05.959 you know, celebrate, but hey, look any money and I'm making, 159 00:08:06.120 --> 00:08:09.240 I'm happy. But again, I'm not making life changing money 160 00:08:09.240 --> 00:08:12.399 on the gold ETFs that I have, but it's good 161 00:08:12.399 --> 00:08:15.759 that it is going up, So folks hang in there. 162 00:08:16.800 --> 00:08:21.879 There's still some important landmark and milestone items ahead, like 163 00:08:21.920 --> 00:08:26.319 the Clarity Act, and you know these tradi fi institutions 164 00:08:26.399 --> 00:08:29.879 launching more on ramps, like we've heard Charles Schwab and 165 00:08:29.959 --> 00:08:31.759 much more are going to launch crypto trading in twenty 166 00:08:31.839 --> 00:08:34.519 twenty six, so I think that is some of the 167 00:08:34.519 --> 00:08:37.759 things I'm holding on too, in addition to cheaper capital 168 00:08:37.879 --> 00:08:41.720 environment more of liquidity, so I'm leaning more towards that. Right, 169 00:08:41.759 --> 00:08:43.200 the bears are going to be once again, They're gonna 170 00:08:43.200 --> 00:08:44.639 be in a common section say I'm an idiot, a 171 00:08:44.639 --> 00:08:47.600 fool and whatever, but I'm just being reasonable. I'm just 172 00:08:47.639 --> 00:08:50.080 looking at, you know, all the things that are happening, 173 00:08:50.120 --> 00:08:52.919 and that that's my thesis. And you know, I'd love 174 00:08:52.960 --> 00:08:54.600 to hear from you guys if you think I'm wrong, 175 00:08:54.840 --> 00:08:57.799 and you know, leave your thoughts and comments below. And folks, 176 00:08:57.840 --> 00:09:00.799 be sure to check out our sponsor, Treasure. They make 177 00:09:00.840 --> 00:09:03.080 beautiful hardware wallets that make it easy for you to 178 00:09:03.120 --> 00:09:06.080 self custod your assets. They currently have a holiday sale 179 00:09:06.080 --> 00:09:08.240 where you can get some big discounts and many of 180 00:09:08.279 --> 00:09:11.159 you know they recently launched their Treasure Safe seven, which 181 00:09:11.200 --> 00:09:14.200 is a quantum ready device top of the level of 182 00:09:14.240 --> 00:09:17.279 security and if you know your history, Treasure they started 183 00:09:17.320 --> 00:09:20.000 the hardware wallets and the seat phrase setup. They were 184 00:09:20.039 --> 00:09:22.519 the pioneers in twenty thirteen, so they know what they're doing. 185 00:09:22.559 --> 00:09:27.279 They support all the major coins Bitcoin, etheroerem XRP, Salana, Cardano, Dose, goin, 186 00:09:27.360 --> 00:09:29.879 you name it, it goes down the list. They also 187 00:09:29.960 --> 00:09:32.799 have a handholding service, so if you want to talk 188 00:09:32.840 --> 00:09:34.759 to a Treasure rep to help you set up your advice, 189 00:09:34.879 --> 00:09:37.080 they can help you. And don't worry, they don't ask 190 00:09:37.120 --> 00:09:39.519 you for your private keys. So make sure you check 191 00:09:39.519 --> 00:09:42.039 out Treasure guys. I'm a user of the device. I 192 00:09:42.159 --> 00:09:44.480 personally use the Treasure save five and seven and once 193 00:09:44.480 --> 00:09:48.159 again they got a holiday sales, so get grab those discounts, folks. 194 00:09:48.320 --> 00:09:49.799 I would love to hear what you guys think. Do 195 00:09:49.840 --> 00:09:52.399 you agree with me that there's one more leg in 196 00:09:52.480 --> 00:09:54.639 this bullmarket to a blow off top? Or do you 197 00:09:54.720 --> 00:09:58.039 believe we're going to see a relief rally as we 198 00:09:58.159 --> 00:10:01.399 head into twenty twenty six and maybe this happens Q one, 199 00:10:01.480 --> 00:10:03.559 Q two. You know we're gonna have to wait and see, 200 00:10:04.120 --> 00:10:06.519 and you know, i'd love to hear what you guys think. 201 00:10:06.639 --> 00:10:10.799 Be civil, be nice, please no name calling and all 202 00:10:10.840 --> 00:10:13.639 these things. In the comments section. Share your thoughts and 203 00:10:13.879 --> 00:10:16.840 I'll be sure to respond to your guys comments. All right, folks, 204 00:10:16.879 --> 00:10:19.320 I'm gonna get back to the beach once again, wishing 205 00:10:19.360 --> 00:10:24.399 you all a safe, prosperous and healthy twenty twenty six. 206 00:10:24.519 --> 00:10:40.000 I'll catch you in the next one.