Speaker 1: Welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
Speaker 1: On your way in. Please sit that subscribe button as
Speaker 1: well as the thumbs up button and leave a comment below. Folks,
Speaker 1: those of you watching on YouTube can probably tell I
Speaker 1: am not in my studio and hopefully the breeze here
Speaker 1: from the beach he is not bothering you. But I
Speaker 1: am recorded from Cancun, Mexico, on vacation with the family,
Speaker 1: and I wanted to make this quick video to talk
Speaker 1: about what I'm expecting for crypto in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1: Twenty twenty five has been a bit disappointing. I know
Speaker 1: a lot of you are expecting something different, essentially what
Speaker 1: we've seen in the past bullmarkets blow off tops. Now
Speaker 1: I have a thesis I've been sharing with you all
Speaker 1: that I think there's two scenarios that could play out.
Speaker 1: One we see a relief rally and bitcoint doesn't go
Speaker 1: to a new all time high. We have alts move
Speaker 1: a bit, but it's not to necessarily a new all
Speaker 1: time high, or some of them could go to new
Speaker 1: all time highs, or the bullmarket continues. Now I'm sure
Speaker 1: many of you been seeing silver is hitting you all
Speaker 1: time highs I think across seventy one bucks this week,
Speaker 1: and then you had gold now is breaking out again.
Speaker 1: So what have we seen throw so far in this
Speaker 1: bull market that precious metals gold has been a leading indicator,
Speaker 1: and there's a correlation right when gold is moving, bitcoin
Speaker 1: is cool down. The stock market's cool down when gold
Speaker 1: is correcting, you know, device versus happening. So there's some
Speaker 1: optimism there to say that this bull market could potentially continue.
Speaker 1: In addition, you have the FED which has started quantitative easing.
Speaker 1: We're in the easy money cycle. Rates continue to be cut.
Speaker 1: They're going to inject tons of liquidity. And not just
Speaker 1: the FED, but we saw Japan approve a one hundred
Speaker 1: and something billion dollars stimulus. I don't remember the exact number.
Speaker 1: I think one hundred and eighteen billion. So all that
Speaker 1: liquidity will make its way into markets. And you have
Speaker 1: other central banks that are going to do the same thing.
Speaker 1: So what's happening here? This is such a weird dichotomy.
Speaker 1: You have Tradify adopting crypto rapid pace of all this
Speaker 1: liquidity that's starting to build up now, yet the price
Speaker 1: action doesn't reflect that, and a lot of people are saying, hey,
Speaker 1: look the market is top. It's done for bitcoin, nothing else, right,
Speaker 1: But you know, looking at the market and looking at
Speaker 1: what the macro backdrop is and the fundamentals, it is
Speaker 1: so weird because the charts are showing some bear signals
Speaker 1: while the fundamentals like crypto adoption and the macro is
Speaker 1: at this epic level like we've never seen before. So
Speaker 1: I do think there is one moral leg I think
Speaker 1: a move to a blow off top is still still
Speaker 1: in the cards for us. I could be absolutely wrong,
Speaker 1: and yes, you guys are probably coming to common section
Speaker 1: and kill me if I'm wrong, But obviously do your
Speaker 1: own research. This is not financial advice. I'm just sharing
Speaker 1: my thesis from my research. And look, I know that
Speaker 1: may seem impossible right now, but I can't ignore the
Speaker 1: macro factors. I can't ignore that markets move based on liquidity,
Speaker 1: and we are, like I said, in that easy money
Speaker 1: cycle where it's going to be cheaper to borrow capital
Speaker 1: because rates are lower. The Fed and the other central
Speaker 1: banks are inserting liquidity. You have incredible adoption from tradifi companies,
Speaker 1: banks launching crypto trading, ETFs, tokenizing, and much more. The
Speaker 1: SEC has passed or approved tons of all coin ETFs.
Speaker 1: So it's so weird that these things are there, these
Speaker 1: on rams and these major adoption items while we're heading
Speaker 1: into a bear market. It doesn't seem right. And we
Speaker 1: know the banks and tradifi they want to make money.
Speaker 1: So what they launch their services in a bear market?
Speaker 1: Why would they not launch it and then have a
Speaker 1: blowof top to make the money right? And you look
Speaker 1: at ETF inflows, they continue to trickle in digital acid
Speaker 1: treasury companies keep buying. Not to mention, you have crypto
Speaker 1: companies looking to do IPOs in twenty twenty six, in
Speaker 1: addition to traditional tech companies like AI companies. So why
Speaker 1: the dichotomy? This is why I'm posing this question because
Speaker 1: I want you to think about it. It's what I've
Speaker 1: been thinking thinking about. It is what I've been noodling on,
Speaker 1: like just this is so weird. Now part of maybe
Speaker 1: the issue. You know, a lot of people get caught
Speaker 1: up in that four year cycle. I think the four
Speaker 1: year cycle was initially driven by maybe the having and
Speaker 1: the psychology of the having, but liquidity was the true
Speaker 1: driver of the markets. And this liquidity cycle has been
Speaker 1: disrupted and pushed back, like I said earlier, by the terriffs.
Speaker 1: The terriffs change the timeline. And then plus you got
Speaker 1: Trump looking to do the stimulus checks and much more.
Speaker 1: Not to mention, the Clarity Act is up to be
Speaker 1: passed in January. You know, David Sachs came out and said, hey, look,
Speaker 1: we're going to get this done in January. Members of
Speaker 1: the Senate have also said the same thing. So it
Speaker 1: is so strange, folks. I've been here since twenty twenty six,
Speaker 1: so it is a really an interesting time to be
Speaker 1: in the market. But look, there's a saying time in
Speaker 1: the market is better than better than trying to time
Speaker 1: the market. The only thing that's really hard is our
Speaker 1: emotions and our need to get those profits right. I
Speaker 1: know we all have life goals. I do as well.
Speaker 1: I've told you, guys what I want to do with
Speaker 1: the money right, and I'm sure many of you have,
Speaker 1: you know, started making your plans on the profits you
Speaker 1: could potentially make. But we've seen, guys, markets are cyclical,
Speaker 1: and you know, even if let's say, for what some
Speaker 1: odd reason, I don't know what it is, this this
Speaker 1: round or this cycle, maybe it's the terriffs that killed everything.
Speaker 1: Even if we just have a relief rally and we
Speaker 1: have to wait longer, I'm personally prepared to wait. I
Speaker 1: have not taking profits, and I know some of you
Speaker 1: are saying, Tony, you're crazy, but I don't necessarily need
Speaker 1: the money right now. Now if I was certainly in
Speaker 1: need of the money, and there's nothing wrong with taking profits,
Speaker 1: right you do what's best for you, what's best for
Speaker 1: your family and your finances. I'm okay right now, even
Speaker 1: though I have those ambitions and goals that I want
Speaker 1: to use the money and so forth. But my portfolio
Speaker 1: is up because I've been buying since, you know, December
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two January twenty twenty three. And I'll see
Speaker 1: what this relief rally looks like, and maybe i'll take
Speaker 1: some profits on some all coins that you know, I
Speaker 1: want to kind of get rid of. I don't necessarily
Speaker 1: want to keep holding them, and I'll let you guys
Speaker 1: know when I do take profits. But it's a strange one.
Speaker 1: But again, for my research, in studying and looking at
Speaker 1: what's happening, I still think there's one more leg in
Speaker 1: this market, and then that'll lead us to a true
Speaker 1: blow off top. So again it could be that as
Speaker 1: we enter into Q one Q two of next year,
Speaker 1: the Clarity Act gets past, liquidity starts making its way
Speaker 1: from these central banks around the globe, including the Fed.
Speaker 1: Of course, capital is cheaper because they've continued to cut rates.
Speaker 1: You've got Traad five building these huge on rams. More
Speaker 1: capital comes into this market. Trump and his administration gives
Speaker 1: the two k tariff stimulus checks if you want to
Speaker 1: call on that to people, and then you have once
Speaker 1: again a blow off top. And you know, again some
Speaker 1: of the signals there is the stock market still looks good,
Speaker 1: gold and silver leading, so there's a lot of macro
Speaker 1: factors here that are just screaming. This thing is not over.
Speaker 1: Liquidity is not drying up. It's actually expanding now. But
Speaker 1: you know, well, we're gonna have to wait and see, folks.
Speaker 1: I wish I had a crystal ball, or like I
Speaker 1: said before, I had the time machine from Back to
Speaker 1: the Future movie. I can go go to the future
Speaker 1: and come back and tell you guys, what's the deal.
Speaker 1: But you know, personally, I'm just going to keep holding
Speaker 1: and again, you do what's best for you. You know,
Speaker 1: people are gonna call me names and say all kinds
Speaker 1: of things. But you know, I like to take a logical,
Speaker 1: reasonable approach. I'm not telling you to follow me. If
Speaker 1: you want to take profits, you do what you got
Speaker 1: to do. Maybe if it's on the relief rally or
Speaker 1: I gain, could be the continuation of the bull market.
Speaker 1: But we're gonna have to wait and see. I mean,
Speaker 1: you can even tell right now that there's no Santa rally,
Speaker 1: there's no Christmas rally. And look, we've still got some
Speaker 1: days left in the market till the end of the year.
Speaker 1: But clearly very different. Right even though gold, the gold
Speaker 1: and silver people are probably really happy right now. But
Speaker 1: congrats to you if you're holding gold and so I
Speaker 1: have a little bit. I don't have much where I can,
Speaker 1: you know, celebrate, but hey, look any money and I'm making,
Speaker 1: I'm happy. But again, I'm not making life changing money
Speaker 1: on the gold ETFs that I have, but it's good
Speaker 1: that it is going up, So folks hang in there.
Speaker 1: There's still some important landmark and milestone items ahead, like
Speaker 1: the Clarity Act, and you know these tradi fi institutions
Speaker 1: launching more on ramps, like we've heard Charles Schwab and
Speaker 1: much more are going to launch crypto trading in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty six, so I think that is some of the
Speaker 1: things I'm holding on too, in addition to cheaper capital
Speaker 1: environment more of liquidity, so I'm leaning more towards that. Right,
Speaker 1: the bears are going to be once again, They're gonna
Speaker 1: be in a common section say I'm an idiot, a
Speaker 1: fool and whatever, but I'm just being reasonable. I'm just
Speaker 1: looking at, you know, all the things that are happening,
Speaker 1: and that that's my thesis. And you know, I'd love
Speaker 1: to hear from you guys if you think I'm wrong,
Speaker 1: and you know, leave your thoughts and comments below. And folks,
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Speaker 1: I would love to hear what you guys think. Do
Speaker 1: you agree with me that there's one more leg in
Speaker 1: this bullmarket to a blow off top? Or do you
Speaker 1: believe we're going to see a relief rally as we
Speaker 1: head into twenty twenty six and maybe this happens Q one,
Speaker 1: Q two. You know we're gonna have to wait and see,
Speaker 1: and you know, i'd love to hear what you guys think.
Speaker 1: Be civil, be nice, please no name calling and all
Speaker 1: these things. In the comments section. Share your thoughts and
Speaker 1: I'll be sure to respond to your guys comments. All right, folks,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna get back to the beach once again, wishing
Speaker 1: you all a safe, prosperous and healthy twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1: I'll catch you in the next one.