Speaker 1: What is up, Fellowsikos.
Speaker 2: I am dan Fa Valley, joined as always by my
certified Pantabulus co host, mister Grant Hughes. It's time to
get to twenty twenty four twenty twenty five NBA record
projections slash over unders. We're gonna go through the over
unders of each teams our picks. We'll talk about how
many wins we have them penciled in for. I will
throw up a graphic at the end where you can
see where Grant and I landed in terms of the
standings for each conference, so stay tuned for that. But
this is fun because we don't have any baseline criteria
to go through, so I get to go right to
the question everyone wants to know the answer to Grant Hall,
the heck are you doing?
Speaker 1: I'm doing very well. I am happy. I'm excited to
discuss the process by which we arrive that's such incredibly
similar wind totals. So we did not discuss this beforehand.
I didn't you did yours first. I didn't look at yours,
and as the listeners and viewers will see, we have
some deviation. So that's good. But I can't wait to
talk about like how this particular brand of sausage got
made and it's so ridiculously similar.
Speaker 2: Right, and so there it was because I was going
through it to make the graphics after you did it.
So like there's some definitely differentiation when it comes to
the actual wins when we went to specific records, because
if those were spot on, we'd have some that'd be bizarre.
Speaker 1: Even those are close, though I thought some of them
were pretty close.
Speaker 2: But I will say that the over unders were going
down or up together, like because we show and locked
up with those. Like if one of us has a
bad run at these this year, and I was horrid
last year, I was like one of the worst in
our competition with our discord members, I was like.
Speaker 1: Did you beat me?
Speaker 2: Though?
Speaker 1: No, oh okay, I remember doing really poorly too.
Speaker 2: I'd beat two people and one of them were not you.
That's a good time to plug. We will be running
it again, so we will have and the winner will
get something. I have to talk to Grant about what.
But we're gonna have our over under competition. You'll be
locked into the same win totals like Grant and I
are using today. So go join our discord if you
have not already the links in the podcast and YouTube
description because I'll be firing that up probably within the
next couple of days. But yeah, I'm excited. I'm excited
to explain how we rationalize this. But uh, I don't
know that we're again, I don't know how many arguments
there are going to be there.
Speaker 1: Just because well before we go to the first team.
So here's what I think happened. And you tell me
if you had a similar experience, Like so I definitely
over index on wins because I just went down each
team as like what do I think it's record is
going to be? And I looked at like how they
do last year? What was the point differential last year?
What's changed? Just like the basics, like where are we
going up? Were we going down to what extent? And
then I get done and I'm like plus sixty something
in wins, And so I got to start peeling wins
off of someplace. And I think what I did was
just like you know two here too, there too, here
too there, And it made the records that I projected
like really condensed toward the middle. Like I wasn't pulling
that much from the really high win teams or the
low win teams. It's just like I feel like I
have a million teams between forty nine and forty four
wins because I just kept like, well, that's a thinking
like it's gonna just regress towards the middle from both ends,
and that's I think, And that's how I ended up
so close to you. Is that was that your process too?
Is that how you like? Cause I'm we did say
that you were over in wins too and then had
to adjust down.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was not over by sixty. I think my
first run through was and I've done the over unders
with our look ahead guess, so like I wasn't looking
at them while I did them, but in my mind,
I'm sure I subconsciously had them while I was going through.
What I ended up having to do was though I
think I don't and these will be the fan bases
that get the angriest, which I think is fine. I'm
not actively trying to piss anyone off by doing this.
I end up having to pull wins from if I
had a team that ended up with thirty seven, I
need a good argument as to why, because look at
the draft that's coming up, Look at how competitive the
top of these conferences are and like, those are the
teams I started playing wins from because some of them
are just like, well they are sort of like, let's
use this is not a team I actually took a
bunch of wins from. But like Portland, it's just like
if you're gonna pencil them in for thirty five wins,
it doesn't make sense, like they have the talent we
talk about, like Portland was weirdly stacked, but there was
no incentive for them to I know, they don't necessarily
need more picks, but like just winning thirty five games
and that doesn't even get you to the playing in
the Western Conference. Like, those were the teams that I
was like, you know what if they're around this territory
by the trade deadline, like this is their pace. These
are the teams that are gonna shut people down, they're
going to trade people. And so that's when that's where
I started pulling wins from. Yeah, I will say the
hardest thing for me to do was one the two
things that were the hardest thing was the new additions,
especially when it came to the Nixon Timberwolves, which are
two teams I'm very high on. It's well, how long
does this take to come together? Like the whole team,
they were just slapped together, but it's it happened as
training camps were beginning, so it's gonna take a little
while for this to co lace. And then the even
bigger one was just the West is a beast, Yeah,
and it's I wasn't even comfortable taking wins from like
the Jazz or the Blazers is where we're at, but
like independent of them, it starts with the Spurs, the Rockets,
the Grizzlies, the like. There's just so many could be
good teams in the West, and it makes me wonder
who is gonna be the team in the West that's
like we're just gonna have missed on because they decided, like, no,
we're pulling the ripcord on here. We don't want to
be forty three wins right.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, I don't know if they're pulling the ripcord,
but there is definitely a Western Conference scene that we
both went pretty low on. That was a fifty win
team last year, I think, or close to it. But anyway,
we should start. I think it's just interesting that I
don't know, I think we both were too optimistic. I guess,
which is maybe, like, hey, good for us initially, and
then we really had to throttle back on a lot
of these teams. So you want to start with the
Atlanta Hawks.
Speaker 2: Yes, let's do it by it, let's do it. Let's
let's follow the alphabet again. A right, let's see how
we do that. So the Hawks have an over under
grant of thirty five and a half. Are you going
over or under here? And why or if you want to
go through your process first before you get to.
Speaker 1: A Okay, yeah, I just I just spoiled it. Well,
so initially I had them at like thirty nine, I think,
just because I know Dejontay Murray's gone. But it's like
Trey Young, maybe he's healthier if the Jalen Johnson leave happens,
like there's another path towards more wins. They don't own
their picks, like that's a huge factor. So unless you're
trading Trey Young to San Antonio for those picks back
like a tank, doesn't seem super likely. Although we have discussed, like,
you know, if you can't get your own, at least
get somebody else's. You're not like you you can't. It's
not like you cannot trade Trey Young because you can't
get those picks back, Like that's ill possible. But I
had to. I had This was a team that I
knocked like three wins off of, so I'm over but
by the slimmest margin possible with thirty six wins. And
it's just they're just not as good as the you know,
the definite playoff teams in the East. And they're also
just not They're in They're in the middle. This is
this isn't in the middle team right now unless something
you know, dramatic happens.
Speaker 2: I also happened in thirty six winsh I actually had
them higher at first. They were one of the teams
that I had to pull stuff away from. And as
you mentioned, this is not going to be a team
that theoretically will have to sell off unless the Godfather
offer for Trey Young comes into play. But at the
same time, in the back of my head, I'm like,
they're gonna be relying on a bunch of unfinished products
or unproven guys Zacharysache for one, but also Dyson Daniels.
I'm a sit they look it seems like they valued
him pretty highly in the de Jonte Murray trade and
so unless you kind of and are we going to
see more of a transition to on Yikka Kungou as
your primary big just Jalen Johnson get more responsibility And
maybe there's just always the I mean, we view it
through the lens of just well, what if they decide
to trade Trey Young if they're not that good, Like,
do they just try and recoup assets for Bogdanovich or
can they get something for Yaka Kunglu or do Andre Hunter?
I've even bandinged about this is just really not really
it's anything. But if you were the Spurs, would you
give back one or more of Atlanta's picks if you
could get Jalen Johnson. Let's say he doesn't sign an extension.
Speaker 1: Yeah, wouldn't you would? Yeah?
Speaker 2: Oh yeah I would too. I just want to make
sure I wasn't the only one because he kind of
he's about to start his next deal and he's not
like super great defensively, but it's to plug him next
to Wemby in the front court. It makes so much
more sense than doing so with a Keldon Johnson or
a Jeremy Sewyn.
Speaker 1: Would you agree that this is kind of unless unless
the selloff happens. This team has a pretty high floor.
Like it's you know, they're not gonna win if guys
are healthy and they don't trade away a bunch of
you know, the Trey Young or they don't trade Jalen
Johnson or whatever, like, it's hard for them to be
much worse than this. And I do think like maybe
Trey Young's healthy and is much better, Johnson makes sleep.
There's like there's like forty five forty six win upside here.
I just I don't think it's like reasonable to make
that the expectation, right.
Speaker 2: I had them so when I first did it, I
had them at forty three and it was just you
can talk me into getting there. But as a prediction,
I'm just looking, there's at least like seven other teams
in the East that I think are going that are
just substantially better than the Hawks. So maybe this turns out,
Oh what Vic Crachi did last year was for real
and it scales into a bigger role. Maybe Kobe Buffkins
is able to log actual minutes this year and he's
really good. I know that people talk a lot about well,
like what are they gonna do with at center? But
like they have Jaleen Johnson, Clincapela, Larry at junior on,
Yuka kung Wu, one of the better just four man
like four or five rotations in the league. So if
Trey Young's healthy, I just the tough The final thing
I'll say before we move on, just to square with, well,
how big a role is Zachary Resische going to play?
I know that he probably won't be central to the
on ball offense, but if you're going to rely a
ton on a rookie, that's just it gets you into
iffy territory, like he might have to be their primary
wing checker in the core lineups, and that is a
rookie is a tough thing to do. Yeah, for sure,
We're onto the Boston Celtics, which I don't know, and
maybe I'll do the intro for the East teams and
you can take the West ones. But they're over under
is fifty seven and a half, which they won sixty
four last year and made no material changes. So I'm
curious as to how you gained this one out.
Speaker 1: Yeah, a few factors. Again, yet another team I had
to start peeling a couple wins off of because I
had him higher Initially, I think Porzingis's absence is a factor,
as is the related issue of when he is back.
I do think he's like a second nine of a
back to back, you know, planned rest guy. I think
they might limit his minutes, and really I think that's
an approach they might take with everybody, just because the
run to the finals is long. You know, several guys
were with Team USA, so they didn't get a huge
summer break, like I think some real you know, careful
management of the roster at the top end of it anyway,
is like very likely and probably like be what they
do that the championship hangover, like all those like additional
like wishy washy factors I think are there, and when
you're dealing with a team that won sixty four games,
like you got to come down, Like I mean, I
would assume, right, So I have them under I have
them at fifty six wins and like that's still for me,
the best in the East. Not to spoil the rest
of it, but it's it's definitely like that's a law.
A lot of come down from sixty four. And it's
not an argument that Boston is like, oh they're worst.
It's just I think that's just the way they're going
to manage the season.
Speaker 2: I'm with everything you said. The only thing I would
add and so I went under as well, I have
them at fifty seven wins, So I'm right there. It
wouldn't shock me if they had another sixty something win
season and it's the Porzingius injuries big and then I
know you could say, well, look at how well they
performed without him, including during the postseason last year. You
now have to do that until what Anuary at least.
And the other thing is Al Horford's getting older, and
then it's all right, you can plug in Exavier Tillman
and Luke Cornett and name me as Cada. But like,
can you play two bigs anymore together? When you look
at the current setup, like maybe, but are you gonna
get away with it for as much?
Speaker 1: Then?
Speaker 2: What does that do? Does it put any other undue
straight on your perimeter players? With all of that said,
I'm very open to the idea that just like Jason
Tatum was at the Olympics, didn't necessarily play the ton,
is he gonna want to have sort of a revenge
campaign for people who didn't think that he belonged in
the MVP discussion, Jalen Brown does he kind of have
a chip on his shoulder because he wasn't selected to
go to Team USA. I understand that these are we
can't necessarily quantify these things, but as I think it was,
Jalen Brown even said this, the goal wasn't just to
win one, and so it wouldn't shock me if let's
just say they're not at full strength, maybe they are
managing their minutes, and they're still just head and shoulders
better than every one in the Eastern Conference and wins
sixty games.
Speaker 1: Again, I think that's yeah, yeah, I don't think teams
like think this way necessarily or explicitly, but it's like
they can look at each other and say, like, we
don't need sixty four like to be the number one seed,
like odds are historically, Like, you know, that's that's a
ridiculous win total. It doesn't happen often. Fifty nine might
do it, and you know, once like fifty six, I'm
saying fifty six fifty seven is plenty to win the East. So, like,
I do think that a little bit of knowledge. Now,
I don't know if that changes if like some of
these other East teams were pretty high on like get
off to crazy starts and maybe Boston actually cares about
the one seed, but like, like it just this is
just what happens. I think after a championship. It would
be my guest, given in addition to their specific like
injury and health and age circumstances.
Speaker 2: If I told you they were just determined to go
for it during the regular season, would you just smashed
the over.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean I think sixty should
is like totally doable even with the Porzingis stuff. If
they really cared.
Speaker 2: This team that's coming up is not going to win
sixty games. I can tell you that much right now.
In might lose sixty though, if not more. The Brooklyn
Nets over under of eighteen and a half, mister Hughes,
which I think is the second lowest over under projection.
From that, we're using fan duel for this.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I had them over initially and then again had
to peel some wins off. I had them at nineteen.
It's just like this is a little bit. Portland is
the more extreme case. We discussed them already as like
you know, there's actually a lot of good veteran talent here.
Brooklyn's not in that boat, but you could. You could
just look at it and say, like, well, until guys
get traded, like Dennis Shrewder, probably a very low end starter,
but like is an NBA veteran who's been capable on
playoff teams before, Cam Thomas, Dorian Finney Smith, Cam Johnson,
Nick Claxton, We like Noah Clowney, Like I'm not gonna
say Ben Simmons, but Ben Simmons, Like maybe there's something
there you could if if they wanted to go for it,
this team could win in the mid twenties. Maybe, Like
that's not totally ridiculous, but that's a low bar. But
I did go under. I ended up with seventeen here
and it's just you got to pull the wins from somewhere.
And like, this is a Nets team that is firmly
in a rebuild, and if there's any lever they can
pull to make sure they have a bottom three four record,
I think they'll pull it.
Speaker 2: I went under as well. I have them at fifteen wins.
I'm just they have a finite window in which they
can be as bad as possible. They have no cornerstone
on their team. Nick Claxton or Cam Thomas probably the
closest they come. If Cooper flag odds are at steak.
I know it's all about, well, you only need a
bottom four record to have those odds, or they're flattened
enough to where if you finish with the fifth or
six worst record, it's fine. This team one doesn't have
the talent to do that. Like who is driving this offense?
I don't want to hear any more about Ben Simmons
until he gets out there and does the thing. Yeah,
Cam Thomas is good? Is he a good enough passer?
I have no idea. So this team I think is
going to be bad on purpose and the other part,
like they're even if they don't make trades, and I
would expect that multiples from when we're talking Cam Johnson,
Cam Thomas, Dorian Finney Smith, Dennis Shrewder, maybe Ben sim Is,
Nick Claxton. If you're gonna set the over, I just
name what six guys. If you're gonna set the over
under two and a half of those guys being traded,
I'm taking the over. And even if they're not, this
team is shutting people down after the All Star break, right,
Nick Claxton got paid. They're not gonna flinch at doing
that if he's still on the roster. Pass the trade deadline.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's right. It's just you know they're
going to be bad and maybe the worst team in
the East. Is just a question of like how low
do they really think they got to go.
Speaker 2: I would actually argue that they're doing themselves a disservice
if they went to the trouble of acquiring their own
draft picks and they don't have one of the three
worst records in the league.
Speaker 1: Like what's the Oprah thing? Like when someone tells you
who they are, believe them Like that just told us
who they were. They got their picks back for a reason.
That's what's gonna happen.
Speaker 2: This next team, the Charlotte Hornets over under of twenty
nine and a half grant I will say, before you
get started, I understand the logic now when I sat
here and thought more critically about it. Why the over
under is so low? This almost just seems like a
classic case of they're assuming nobody's going to be healthy,
which which whatever's going on with Mark Williams might be
a goo assumption, or that people are getting traded. And
because I like this team on paper when they're at
full strength, which is my initial english was oh, this
is low. I started thinking through it a little bit more.
I was like, I get to why you would be
this low, if not lower on Charlotte.
Speaker 1: I agree, I get it too. This is a pessimistic
over under number. This twenty nine and a half. I
think I was way higher. Like, I look, if you
made a really compelling case that the Hornets over under
should be like thirty seven and a half, I'd be like,
I get it. Because it's LaMelo ball. Maybe he's an
All Star again. Last time he was healthy, he was he's.
Speaker 2: An NBA player.
Speaker 1: Like, if he's an NBA player, right, maybe Brandon Miller
second year jump, like Miles Bridges is a good NBA player,
Like that's just that full we'll discussion over. Like the
Mark Williams injury is a great Here we go again,
like how much does there's there's a lot of reasons
to be doubtful, but man, like I think this might
be a there's there's quite a bit of range here.
I think that you could you could envision I did
go over by the narrowest margin possible. I have them
at thirty wins. I really really could be talked into
like seven or eight more if if someone wanted to
make the case, like if you think Charlotte is like a, oh,
they're a plan team, no question, Like I'm receptive. I'm
receptive to that. I don't think they're a team that's
gonna go what do they win? Like twenty low twenties
last year? I can't even remember now twenty one. Yeah,
they were twenty one with a with a point differential
of a seventeen win team by the way, So like
we're we're projecting massive growth in Charlotte this season, But yeah,
is that how you feel like? There's just like the
range is pretty big here.
Speaker 2: Yes, when I first went through, I had them at
thirty eight. I ripped winds away from them. They're still over,
but I have them at thirty because I just there's
the health factor for sure with LaMelo, and we know
about Mark Williams. But this team is still I understand
that on paper they could be good, but if they're
if they have the chance to win thirty eight games,
it's probably because Miles Bridges is playing well, Cody Martin
is healthy and playing well. Why are those guys still
on the team when you're looking at the trajectory of
this franchise and everything they've prioritized since the new regime
took over has been bigger picture. And so I'm not
trying to you know, this is like kind of a
backhanded compliment, but I don't think they're gonna be comfortable
with being on a thirty seven thirty eight win track
like Michael Jordan would have been. I don't think that
this group is going to be and so and like, honestly,
winning thirty eight games might have been the goal, just
to like make the play in and I don't think
they're gonna get caught up in that. Now. Maybe if
they're so much better than expected, they might view it
as like where we have our two guys in LaMelo
and Brandon Miller. But honestly, I would I even feel like,
are we just going to rule out that LaMelo's a
trade candidate here? I wouldn't go into this season as
Charlotte aiming to do this. But if he's healthy, playing
exceptionally well, and someone comes, if Orlando comes in with
just a massive offer, it's you're early enough into your
rebuild that it's oh okay. Even if a. Mel's healthy, though,
and you're not trading him? Are we sure he's gonna
play a ton after the All Star break? I guess
if all MBA is on the line and that's what
and he's in the discussion, sure you have to. But
I think that this is a team that has bigger
aspirations than just winning thirty seven thirty eight games, And
unless that they're decidedly above five hundred, I don't think
they'll lean into that.
Speaker 1: I think their draft pick, too, who's you know, he's
in the kabaklaow zone of like two years away from
two years away, suggests that like we're cool with like
a very long runway here, But I want to ask
you pricing like average health, Like we don't need eighty
two games from LaMelo and Brandon Miller, but you get
seventy from each of them, right, and like no teardown trades.
If if you give me those variables, or if I
give you those, I solidify those those are no longer variables.
There not selling off and they don't have major injury
issues just like average injury luck. Can this team win
fewer than thirty games if those variables are like accounted for?
Speaker 2: I guess it depends on, like, how committed are they
to the developmental course?
Speaker 1: No shutdowns either, no late season shutdowns.
Speaker 2: Well, I mean so, I guess here's my thing would
be this would be the like the gauge for me
or so are we just assuming then I don't expect
Salon to play a bunch before the All Star breaker
of the trade deadline. Are you saying like that's the
like they're not going to prioritize. Well, let's see what
Brandon Miller can do with even more odd ball offense.
Let's see what t John Salon could do with more
playing time. And so, if they're going for it and
they're healthy, no, I don't see a pathway to this
team winning fewer than thirty games. I actually know this
is funny. I diverging from John Hollingser on this where
he's like, well, look at what they did when they
had Terry Rozier and PJ. Washington, not last season, but
the season before. They still didn't win a bunch of games.
I still think that LaMelo ball is the great equalizer
there to where this guy is transcendent on the offensive end,
and if he's healthy, this is a thirty plus win team.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I guess my question is really just
like a roundabout way of me saying, like the talent
here is more than sufficient to be like pushing for
a plan if they want to. And though the reason
there's so much variance or like you could talk yourself
up or down so much is like we're not it's
unclear at this point, like what their priorities are going
to be, even though I think you're probably right that
like if it comes and that's reflected in our numbers here,
like they should, I think we should have faith that
they'll realize that like twenty six wins is better than
thirty eight wins for what this organization seems to be
going for. But we'll see.
Speaker 2: And I will say, as the final thought would be,
if you think they're going to be healthy, the only
reason to go under here is you think they're actively
going to steer out of clearing it. And that's I
mean even that, Is there anyone on this team that
you independent of LaMelo, that you could just move or
shut down that is going to impact their bottom line
when it comes to wins and losses like to that degree?
Speaker 1: Yeah, probably not.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't be Brandon Miller and that's no go.
And maybe Miles Bridges. I don't know how many. If
you're telling me Melow plays all season and you trade
Miles Bridges, I still think this d wins more than thirty.
Speaker 1: Games, right right? Right? Yeah? Come pretty comfortable over Weirdly,
even though we're just barely over.
Speaker 2: It's just like I had to rip wins from somebody.
I'm trusting that they care about the bigger picture more,
I'm not sure if this team cares about the bigger picture.
Uh spoiler alerts. They are up on screen. But the
Chicago Bulls twenty seven and a half, I'll spoil it.
Speaker 1: It's up there already.
Speaker 2: We both went under. I don't feel good about this though.
I don't trust that the Bulls are not going to
try and win thirty two games.
Speaker 1: This is the problem, like because we so I had
them like, I'm at twenty six, so I'm under by
You're you're quite a bit lower than me at what
twenty one is what you have them at?
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I pulled wins from them, and I'm also
just like like you, they have to understand, right, come.
Speaker 1: On, fellas that said, I just in my initial run through,
I was like, why can't they win thirty seven games?
What if they if zach Lavine? Did you see the
zach Lavine opening statement at media day?
Speaker 2: Just no? I did you see the image where it
looked like him and Nikolovucevic just found out they were
playing for the Chicago Bulls. They looked like they were prisoners, honestly.
Speaker 1: So again, it's a little bit like the Charlotte argument
where it's like, well, if Levine stays here, which is like,
what are we really talking about? Are they can't possibly
not trade Levine, like if his value tips into positive territory,
But then you just go through. It's like Kobe White's good,
the soon moves good, maybe Patrick Williams will be good.
Like there's just there's a mid thirties team here, even
without DeRozan and and Alex Caruso. But they just can't
do it like they they gotta be. They have to
realize what the assignment is.
Speaker 2: I think, and I think they look, you have that
pick two. That's O to San Antonio is you don't
want a chance it it's top ten protected and you
have to suck. You have to suck, and the means
by which you do that I think any team that's
planning on having Josh Giddy run the show. But by
the way, Josh Giddy's injured, so I mean that's gonna
throw a wrench. So now you're just gonna integrate him
on the fly. And the other thing, too, is I
wouldn't say I trust them to steer out of winning
too many games. But like if Patrick Williams, Kobe White,
Zach Lavine, and Iol desume we're all still on this
roster past the trade deadline, I'll be sufficiently flabbergasted.
Speaker 1: This is a team that is in position to a
year from now be at like absolute zero, right like
if Levine gone for picks and whatever, Kobe White gone
to as soon move gone, and then it's just like
Josh Giddy, assuming they extend him, and that's like, that's
Itvucevich somehow gone. I don't know how you trade him.
Speaker 2: By the way, this could become dated, but we're getting
close enough where there's only a couple weeks left before
the deadline. If you're not gonna extend Josh Giddy, you
need to reu justify that trade.
Speaker 1: All.
Speaker 2: I'm not First of all, I'm not saying that I'm
gonna like the number they extend Hi Matt, but you
already valued him as Oh he was worth Alex Caruso
on his own and that, by the way, that's the
other thing here, throw the whole You know, are the
Bulls gonna twist themselves in a losing enough games? You
just traded two of your or lost two of your
three best players from because you had Kobe White, DeRozan
and Caruso. Those weren't the Chicago Bulls becuz zach Lean
was injured, wasn't playing really well when he tried to
fight through it. Those were two of your three best
players and they're now gone and you replace them with
Josh Giddy. That's not enough to offset. And that's a team.
So the Bulls last year win thirty nine games. So
going from uh, excuse me, going from Demarcroes and Alex
Russo to Josh Giddy. I'm not saying that's gonna cost
you fourteen wins necessarily, but it's a pretty damn good start.
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, yeah, exactly. Even if they don't steer into
the skid, they've definitely I don't know, the cars out
of control or hopefully it is in this case to
butcher an analogy.
Speaker 2: Our next team, the Cleveland Cavaliers, coming at forty eight
and a half wins. Mister Hughes, you are a big
advocate that they should trade everybody and rebuild around Greg
Porter Junior. So I'm curious where you land on this.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this team I think has a really good chance
of blowing this number out of the water. I don't know.
It's partly the stability, it's partly the coaching change. I think,
you know, we did a little bit of discussion about
Kenny Atkinson and what he might do for Evan Mobley,
and based on what he's done did for Brook Lopez
in the past, I think just this team's top four
is better than it was last year when it was
everybody was hurt. Darius Garland's season fell apart when he
broke his jaw and lost a bunch of weight because
you couldn't eat. Like there's just there's so many easy
you know, there's so much low hanging fruit to pick here,
whether it's from a health person eive or like they'll
just be deployed more like optimally with a new coach
in charge. So this wasn't an easy over for me
and this was yet another one that I peeled off,
like I think I might have had them at like
fifty six fifty seven, but I got them at fifty three,
and I still like forty eight and a half, like
they're gonna smoke that number, I think. I just think
I feel so good about this over.
Speaker 2: I hate the overall this too, and I had them
and I still might change it. You'll have to people
have to watch and see what the graphics say at
the end. I've when I was going through it, there
was at one point where I had them as the
number two seed in the Eastern Conference, and I still
might get there because I really don't know what to
do to make sense of the Knicks of it all,
where they're trying to integrate so many new pieces and
they're fairly shallow, but like unlike the Sixers and the Knicks,
like the Cavs have some continuity now I know that
they have, well not now, but they did and they
still do. You're adding Kenny Atkinson. That's just different from
trying to throw in all these different new rotation players,
which they're not going to be tesked with doing. And
by the way, last year everyone just thinks not that
it was a had agracle failure, but they were for
some reason more pessimistic on the Cavs. Who they're missing.
Domin Mitchell doesn't even qualify for the year end awards,
Darius Garland misses a bunch of time. It didn't have
his best season for a good chunk of it. Evan
Mobley misses a bunch of time. They still won forty
eight games, and so you have to what is the
pathway to them. I'm surprised that the over under was
so low. I don't understand why it wouldn't be higher.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just a bet that the injury stuff continues.
I mean, I've oh, yeah, okay, great, Yeah, they won
fifty one two years ago, so like, what do we
do half they're worse? Like why why are they worse
than that? I don't understand.
Speaker 2: I guess she could make the argument the East is
better would be the I mean, but isn't it worse
at the bottom?
Speaker 1: I guess I don't know. Yeah, even the bottom really
just has the two teams that are really horrible.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: I just think forty eight and a half is like
just not high enough.
Speaker 2: So no, if this team Honestly, if they're healthy and
they win fewer than fifty games, I don't know what
the reason it would be.
Speaker 1: Right. Here's the thing too, when like I think one
of the we haven't discussed this yet, it'll probably come
up again. But like a really really good defense, which
the Caves are gonna have, just sets your floor. You know,
if you're the number five defense, like your offense can
be league average and you just win forty eight games,
Like if they're a little better than that, then you're
well over fifty, you know what I mean. Like, the
predictability of the defense to me is just is really
like just augurs towards like, oh yeah, this win total
is gonna be in the fifties. I don't know.
Speaker 2: I'm with you on that front. Will we be with
each other on this front? As we talk about the
Dallas batteries?
Speaker 1: All right, so I'll talk about him a little bit here,
all right? Well the over under here, Dan, and you
can lead in since I've put a monopoly on that
so far. Forty nine and a half is the number
for Dallas.
Speaker 2: What do you got? I have them over and I
have them quite comfortably. They were a team I ended
up needing to pull some wins off of and buy.
When I say that, I mean I still let them
at fifty three. I don't. I think they got more
dynamic on the offensive end without submarining what they're able
to do on defense. And I'm wondering where my disconnect
is from people who are I see the argument basically
laid out that despite making the NBA Finals, the MAVs
are further away from a title than expected. If you
want to, okay, sure, but like there are people who
believe that they got worse and I just don't like
Derek Jones Junior couldn't have meant that much to them.
I guess you can worry about, well, what does the
defense look like? During Luca Clay Kyrie minnotes there's just
easy staggering there. And so I'm wondering if I'm just
higher than on because i think I'm pretty level headed
when it comes to the realities of the Klay Thompson fit,
what it does do for them, what it won't do,
where it'll hurt them, where it'll help them. The people
think that Klay Thompson is helping your shot creation, that's
a no for me. Dog, that's not no that's not happening,
But like, is it just I'm higher on the idea
of Nausey Marshall and Quenton Grimes, Then.
Speaker 1: I mean, while I'm with you, I'm over here also
not quite to the degree you are. But this is
another case where I like, of the top four or
five West teams, I think I peeled off like a
couple wins. So I think I was probably in that
fifty three range you were in before I like knocked
down the number one, two, three, four, five seeds a
little bit to get to where I have them is
just fifty one. I think it's fifty one, right, Yeah,
fifty one. They won fifty last year. So the argument
has to be that the Derek Jones junior loss not
only cannot be covered up for by Thompson, Grimes Marshall,
but also that like Derek Lively won't get better, that
like Luca might not have like a fraction of a
higher gear. Now that's like you probably don't want to
make that your first argument, because it's very difficult to
be better than Luca was last year. But I just
I think the defense is going to be good. I
think the offense is just like on autopilot. There's no
way this offense is bad just because of Luca and
Kyrie and rolling bigs and shooting like what so pretty
you know our numbers, yours more so than mine. I'm
I'm you know, like what one and a half wins
over but like another one like Cleveland where it's like
the underhits if Luca gets hurt, basically like that's and
I just not get.
Speaker 2: Hurting, which is possible. Maybe Kyrie miss is a bunch
of time. All Right, You're not gonna win the title
if you don't have Kyrie. Sure, yeah, but okay, just
like Luca's just and the way that he showed that
he could play it at variable paces last year, and
they're just I'm trying to what is this team's biggest weakness?
Speaker 1: Is it?
Speaker 2: Just like if we're gonna get well, like they really
still could use another ball handler, that's that's fair. But
you have Kyrie and Luca and so it's just like
any third like you do, and you do have options.
By the way, I know Dante xem is injured and
Luca missed some time already, but like you have Spencer Dinwoodie,
a veteran on the team. Maybe Jayden, Hardy Pops and
but I'm not saying this is the perfect team, but
they're deep, with real functional depth where it's not when
you talk to about some of these teams it's well
if if this guy that would maybe be a knife
man on most rosters can be a sixth man or something.
It's I honestly think, and this is probably one of
my more condescending takes, is that I don't think people
realize how much of a difference both Naji Marshall and
Quentin Grimes can make.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think I think the knock would be
or the concern would just be surrounding, like, well, Klay
Thompson is helpful in this area, but not this one.
And maybe you'd say Naji Marshall is helpful in this area,
but not this one. And they don't have that guy
that's helpful in every area at that position. It's like, well,
neither to twenty six other teams. So like that's just
you know, you The the flip side of that is that, well,
they do have like a historically great shooter to space
the floor if they need it, and they do have
a guy in Marshall who can guard and bring energy
and they do have grimes that can cut, so like, yeah,
they don't have a perfect third like wing option, I guess,
but they have like five guys that can be like
value adds in different ways. So yeah, I think I
think the over is pretty that's a pretty good place
to be on this one.
Speaker 2: Our next team. This is a little bit more tougher
for me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this this was, I mean it's tougher. Sorry, it
was the most toughest for me. The over underds fifty
and a half for Denver. I'll let you lead here.
Why was it harder for you than say, then Dallas
are just just tough in general?
Speaker 2: It was tough in general. So there are two reasons
that it was tough. And it's not the idea that
they lost KCP in general. It's that now they're trying
to like now they're trying to integrate Russell Westbrook, which
is always an adventure, and it's you're relying on you've
decided that the crux of your like bench or your
non core guys that are going to prop up like
some those minutes, it needs to be not just Christian
Breb but it has to be Peyton Watson. It has
to be Julian Strauther. You don't have alternatives. You didn't
bring back Justin Holliday. There just aren't alternatives on this roster.
There's gonna be a shaky situation when it comes to
backup five again. I would think, I know Dario Sharitz
is there, but can you play him with Westbrook? There's
so many rotation questions I have, And then it's okay,
are Michael Malone and Calvin Booth on the same page?
Are they even in the same book? And so if
the youngsters aren't coming along as quickly as expected, is
their mandate to continue playing them? Is Michael Malone even
though it seems like they've taken a lot of the
alternatives out of his belt? Is it? I'm just gonna
ride with Russell Westbrook over some of these guys because
they're not performing up to snuff, and maybe Westbrook has
the numbers or just the experience to where you trust
him more. And the final thing is Adam Modes of
DNVR Sports. When I was talking to him on our
Nuggets lookhead said that he didn't really think that they
were gonna hit the over under because of all the
mitigating circless that we just talked about and that this
is a team that shouldn't really be focusing on it,
and I think there'll be some Jamal Murray concern that
will creep in. I did eventually settle on over. I
think Nicole Yokich is an iron man. I think somehow
Jamal Murray's become underrated in the sense that everyone's just
penciling him like he's gonna suck all year. Even if
he starts off slow, We've seen how he can close
or at least work his way into form. I think
the Nuggets will actually probably better defensively, not because they
lost KCP, but I think Christian Brown is better equipped
to handle a bunch of defensive assignments. And if you're
leaning more on Peyton Watson, I think that's more of
a boon for your defense that it's going to be
your offense. And so if you're telling me their defense
is going to get better and they still just have
Nikola Jokic, so the offense is going to be good enough.
I struggle to see how this team wins fewer than
fifty games, unless like there's an injury to Nikola Yokis
or Jamal Murray's really and Honestly, if they lose Jamal Murray,
you could probably talk me in the Nuggets still winning
fifty one games.
Speaker 1: That's that's it for me. I would agree with everything
you said. It's just and I would just add, like, yo,
by the way, Jokic doesn't get hurt, So I'm over
here too. I think we matched that fifty two wins
for Denver. I still think until proven otherwise, definitively, Jokic
is the best player in the world and if he
plays his normal amount, like, you just can't win fewer
than fifty one games, Like I just I don't know how.
I don't know what the recipe is for that. Just
replace everybody with like league average guys or worse than that.
And it's just like he's still gonna make them great.
Like we're not saying they're gonna win the conference or
they're gonna get sixty plus. It's just like fifty and
a half. If you have and you have Jokic, Like,
how do you go below? I don't I don't see
how you get fewer than that.
Speaker 2: I'm just wondering, are the non and even if the
non Yokic minutes are a disaster again, like we've still
seeing them win fifty plus.
Speaker 1: Which they will be. They will be that just that's
what they are.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I honestly think in realms of what they're
trying to do, or if you want to look at
it through the ones of losing KCP, I think more
than anything, it winds up making them. It could make
them a worse postseason team than it is going to
impact them during the regular season.
Speaker 1: I think that's right.
Speaker 2: Very quickly, moving on here to the Detroit Pistons, a
team that we differ on twenty five and a half grant,
which is Look, by the way, that's a really big
uptick because they only won fourteen last year. That's all.
I didn't know Tobias Harris was worth eleven victories.
Speaker 1: Basically, well, Dan, they had a point of Arngel of
an eighteen win team. Does that so I this, I
should just stop saying this, because I think it's gonna
be the case, like across the board, but I had
them higher before I needed to peel off my sixty
plus extra wins. I think they're a little better equipped
with shooting with Beasley Harris and to support Kate Cunningham, though,
like you still probably just need to be spamming, you know,
Jade and Ivy k Cunning am minutes and Asar Thompson
Kate Cunning am minutes because you got to I mean,
we may already have the answer on Ivy, but this
is kind of like the make it or break it,
like are you the guy that we can play beside him?
So that's a way you might suppress the winds total.
I just think there's enough like talent that is young
and likely to get better, and also like sensible position
of need, skill set of need, veteran help to get
over this number. And it's another case where it's like
how many fucking years are we gonna Just like the Pistons,
I think more than almost any other franchise have got
to be sick of just these constant lottery seasons, right,
So they might be a team that if they're in
a position where it's like we can go for it
and maybe get up to thirty seven thirty eight wins
and sniff the play in, or we shut it all
down and we go for another high lottery pick. Even
with the draft being as highly regarded as it is,
I think the Pistons might be the team that would
be like, enough's enough. Now, new coach, new management, Like
maybe for them it's like, well we didn't, we weren't
in charge of all the other lottery seasons. We can
handle one. So I got them at twenty nine wins,
which is pretty comfortably over. Still obviously not a playing team,
but I believe in Kay Cunningham. I think the young
guys will get better, and I think the vets are like,
okay to where this team will be respectable most nights.
Speaker 2: So I went under, is this our first? I think
this is the first time we differed on.
Speaker 1: The time, the part we've been too just raw wins.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going with twenty five three. I agree with
most of your points. I think we're probably at least
a year away from the Pistons like deciding they need
they have to have to have to win more. And
part of that is there is a new regime in place,
and maybe it's just I don't know if it's I'm
not a big enough believer in a young talent they have.
But this is still gonna be a developmental year. Kate
Cunningham should be great, as you already mentioned, they have
more access to Kay Cunningham, plus shooting but like you
need to get extensive run from Ron holland, Asar Thompson
Jane n Ivy, I think Assar Thompson can already impact
winning in a positive light. That being said, I also
think you need to get a ton of information on well,
what do most or all of our core prospects look
like together? And there are just so many redundancies when
it comes to their weaknesses that I think that's gonna
undermine the win loss of it all. Now, if you
tell me that JB. Bickerstaff has been instructed to coach
for victories and that the you know, if we're looking
at the top five leaders in total minutes played or
Kay Cunningham and it's Tobias Harris and it's Malik Beasley
and Simoni Fonts and that's throughout or going okay, then sure.
But I think even if you're just gonna say we
need to get a boatload of more information on Jade
and Ivy, that's something that unless he just really makes
a leap into a positively impactful player, it's not just
about him playing well, but can he elevate the play
of those around him? Ken Jayalen Duran get a lot
better on the defensive end. It just feels, look, I
haven't been being increased by nine wins. That's a big
enough jump as it is, right, And so that coupled
with the developed I mean like it just you have
them doubling more than doubling their win total, which is
just tough for me to get to. I don't think
it's outside the realm of possibility though, especially if we
believe that there are more teams. We know the Wizards
of the Nets fall into this, but if you told
us that, oh okay, Chicago is actively going to steer
out of what they're doing, a ditto for Charlotte, then
it gets easier, I think, to inflate the Pistons win total.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, no, that the jump in raw wins is
really it's like that almost never happens. I'm what I'm
projecting here, So I.
Speaker 2: Think I'm either well enough though that it could That's
the thing.
Speaker 1: Twenty nine. It's like, oh my god, like anyone could
win twenty nine games, right, you would think it's just
when you're coming from fourteen that's pretty tough.
Speaker 2: And it could be a situation, by the way, where
it's like the Spurs last year won twenty two games,
and you probably weren't happy with a lot of what
they did, including playing Jeremy So at point guard, playing
Victor wemen Yama ex another big for too long. But
by the end of the season it seemed like they
were on. You had a ton of information, you knew
what you needed, You saw improvements from guys like Victor
wemen Yama himself, including Devin Missel when he was healthy,
Trey Jones, that you knew what you kind of knew
what Jeremy So had. Is it could be that type
of year for the Pistons, except maybe it's they should
be better than that, because I think that there's just
there's more veterans on here, there's more higher end prospects
that you could hope for improvement from.
Speaker 1: I would say last thing, because you just made me
think of it, Like do you I would suspect, assuming
good health, that will have a pretty good idea of
like which direction the Pistons might be leaning towards based
on who's actually playing a lot early in the season,
so like it might not take very long for us
to realize like oh, oh Dan was right, or like, oh,
I might be okay here at twenty nine because if
it's just like, well, Asar Thompson's kind of buried or
Jay and Ivy's getting twenty five minutes an like, I
think it might be pretty clear early, like what their
sort of objectives are.
Speaker 2: If I set the over on direct zero point five
of all of these players being on the roster or
being off the these players being traded between Jallen dur
and Ron Holland, Asar Thompson and Jade and Ivy, do
you think all four of them basically basking do you
think all four of them are gonna finish the season
in Detroit?
Speaker 1: I mean that goes into like which way are they
gonna go? I think I would say of that group,
Ivy to me is pretty obviously the most likely to
move because you've seen the most of him. I just
I don't know, I'd probably go under, just because like, one,
what is Detroit gonna get for Jade and Ivy that
it would really value? Like what would someone give up
for Ivy? Like, are you like what team is it?
That's like we got to have that guy, here's something
you would want for him? Pistons as opposed to the
Pistons saying we'll take another year. We could still use
restricted free agency. We're definitely not extending him unless it's
a total bargain. So I'd probably go under it. Would
you go over?
Speaker 2: I'm tempted to go over just because I really think
there's something to the effect of there's a new front
office regime in place. None of these guys except for
Ron Holland or there guys basically, and they made some
free agency decisions they already extended kid. I think I'm
just gonna take the over with the caveat that I
would view if I were Trajan Langdonkad Cunningham, and Asar
Thompson is just like my untouchables, like I'm not in
the market for. But again, I could speak to if
someone comes along. If you're a big believer in Ron
Holland as the Trajan Langdon led front office, and I
don't like, who's the best player you could get for
Sara Thompson if you're trying to win games, would you
rule it out necessarily? Again, I'm super high on Nasar Thompson,
so maybe I should probably go on here. I'm just
gonna go over because like, again, these aren't there and
they already one of them and Kay Cunningham and so
I think just given the redundancies when it comes to
the weaknesses, not necessarily the positions they play, or necessarily
even their strengths, it just feels like there's some sort
of it's not combustibility, but turnover potential.
Speaker 1: That's fair.
Speaker 2: Our next team up, mister Hughes, is I believe your
team to take us through.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Golden State Warriors come in at forty three
and a half for an over under. Here a lot
of lineup questions. Apparently that's the big narrative right now,
the Jonathan Kaminga extension, the will they won't they? So
with those factors in mind and any others you want
to discuss, what are we thinking about the Warriors over under?
Speaker 2: I went, I don't feel great about this one. They're
one of the toughest team to pegs. I have them
with forty three wins, so I have them going under.
I just unless they're gonna make a move. I don't.
I honestly don't know what the ceiling of this team
has come constructed is. Because if let's use Jonathan Minga
as an example, if Jonathan Kaminga actualizes the best possible
version of himself, okay, great, But what does that actually
mean for the rest of the roster? Is Andrew Wings
not playing well or not playing a bunch? Is Jonathan
Minga actualizing the best version himself well? Playing a ton
of time? Mix to Wiggins and Draymond Green? Can you
even do that? It seems to be that there's still
some disconnect within Golden Status to whether they view Kaminga
as a three or a four. Draymond Green's pretty steadfast
and saying that he's a three. I don't think that
he defensively. I feel like he could be offensively. I
don't know if I see it. So there's just so
many questions here. And I like what they did over
the offseason by and large, I like a lot of
their individual pieces. But the West is a beast and
you have me. Okay, the Clippers are worse. The Grizzly
should be better if they're healthier. Those two kind of
cancel each other out, and so the lay of the
land is pretty much the same. Then where are these
all these extra wins coming from? I know they won
forty six last year, but they weren't. Even if you
like what they did over the offseason, they didn't have
one of the most, like Sacramento added DeMar de Rosen.
Look at what the Timberwolves did on the trademarkt Look
what the thunder did in free agency and getting Alex Caruso.
They weren't one of the teams that made I think,
if you want to frame it this way, like I
think Naji Marshall is probably a bigger swing piece in
Dallas than a Dmfony Melton in Golden State. Who I
think to me, danfey Maultain's the best player that they
added this offseason. So is this all coming down to
you think Draymond Green is gonna be more available and
that Brandon Perjemski is just a lot. It continues to
develop and that's how they're gonna win as many or
more games. I'm not at I'm saying that rhetorically. I
just Steph is older. I think Steph is still a superstar,
but it's is he a top five player or is
he a top fifteen? And yes, there's a big difference.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I've got him over but at forty five wins,
which is to one fewer than last year. And so
for every scenario you can coct that involves like kaminga
makes a leap or something close to it, and Brandon
Pajemski is better and even like Trace Jackson Davis sort
of makes it so there's not really a question of
who should play center. Like there's all the you know,
the depth really matters. You cannot like discuss those possibilities,
which maybe that gets you to forty eight, forty nine
whatever without acknowledging like this team is drawing Like, look,
the injury to the best player argument applies everywhere, but
this team in particular is drawing dead like every night
if Steph doesn't play, because there is like unless Kaminga
and Pajemski are just suddenly like like high end, starter
level offensive organizers and score, like that's just and I
don't know, that doesn't seem likely to me. So STEP's
thirty six, he's never entered a season like since the
dynasty like kind of started over a decade ago with
like less like proven supplementary offensive help than he has
right now now. So like the downside is like it's
big here. So I think that is reflected in forty
three and a half Like that that feels that's a
pretty low over under for you know, the Warriors are
a public team, like not to the Lakers or Knicks extent,
but like their numbers tend to be inflated because a
lot of people like them. I'm I'm over, but it's
like I gotta ignore it, but not by a lot.
And I'm acknowledging like they have massive downside potential because
all the depth in the world and all the organic
growth from the youth, like just doesn't matter if and
like if Draymond, for example, is suspended or regresses, and
or if Steph misses time, he's thirty six, he's gonna
turn thirty seven before the season's over. Like it's just
the lift for those two guys is so heavy that
you if you go over, which I am, I really
don't think you can feel comfortable because because the downside
is so legit.
Speaker 2: And I know they finished tenth in offense last year,
but I'm just wondering, like what And this isn't just oh,
they lost Clay like you did lose Chris Paul. That's
an offensive organizer guy. And I guess you're replacing Klay
Thompson with Buddy Heals, so that could let's say functionally,
that's at least a wash or close to it. I
just I work like they have one creator. It's unless
you're trusting Brandon Pajemski to make that leap. Can Jonathan
Kminga do it? Can Kyle Anderson do it? What are
the lineups you're using Kyle Anderson in? We've seen him
play five, and I think the Warriors are gonna have
to use him in that regard. Otherwise I don't know
what You're not gonna play him with Draymond Green or
come on, be a bunch, I would think, But then
you get into can you play can you even use
a front goal? Let's say Cominga and Kyle Anderson or
Draymond Green and Kyle Anderson with quote unquote floor spacers
all around them. There's upside here, but I think that
as you mentioned that, the real downside, like the potential
for the floor to fall out from underneath them, feels
like it's more likely than for them to hit their ceiling,
or there's just more wiggle room for them to hit
a bottom most floor than I just what would be
the if you told me? I guess this is my
best way to frame as them Rambley here they feel
more likely to win like thirty three or thirty four
games than they do fifty.
Speaker 1: I was just gonna ask, like, like, so I think
that's that's the right way to think about it. But
I was gonna say, like, what's the what's the most
games you could imagine them winning without a crazy I
guess we didn't really discuss their like potential interest in
a big like we need another star trade, which is
pretty interesting.
Speaker 2: I'm sorry you have to. I really think Mike W.
B Junior put on the performance of the century this
past offseason. I mean, you were never I know, the
Warriors believe they were close to Paul George and he
just told chose Philly. I'm gonna push back and say, definitively,
I'd be shocked if that was the case. Well, so
the two Larry market and stuff, they were never close
on their offer doesn't seem like you and which is
fine if you don't think, but this very much felt
as a look, Steph, we tried. Here's your extension.
Speaker 1: It's a little bit of a Danny Ainge playbook where
it's like, oh, you know, we were close. We just
you know, like he's that for years, right, or at
least with Boston. He's kind of taking a different tax
so they don't make a big trade. What's the most
games you could have realistically imagine them winning? Is fifty
kind of your upper upper cap.
Speaker 2: I would probably say forty nine is just my cap.
I just I don't know, it's so like even there,
so the lineup that I well, if they put their
five best players on the court, Kaminga, Curry, Wiggins, POD's Green,
they didn't even play five hundred possessions together last year,
but they didn't net rating in the ninety seven percent tile. Now,
if you're talking about a bench of oh, danthy Melton
is there, and we have Kyle Anderson and Buddy Healed
and Moses Moody's still good, there's I guess just what
it comes back to me to square away is so
we're just supposed to believe that Draymond Green and Stephen
Curry will both be as available, if not more available,
while also as good, if not better than last season,
despite entering the phase of their careers where we can't
really assume that for anyone who isn't Lebron.
Speaker 1: James right right, I would say this team has like
a an over a range, a realistic range, because every
team like oh, if the you know, if the arena
catches fire and like, you know whatever, like there's still
always this crazy Outlanta stuff, but like a realistic range
of like twenty wins, like thirty three, Yep, I could
see it, because you it's not unrealistic to say guys
in their mid to late thirties just fall apart or
get hurt and don't play. And I could see fifty
three if it's like, oh my god, Kaminga is like
that guy, and Jens is that guy, and Moody and
Wiggins is not terrible Wiggins and you know they're fifty three. Yeah, sure,
I could see it. It's just this is where I'm
just kind of smack in the middle.
Speaker 2: I guess what is it? So what what's the single
biggest factor that would lift them to fifty or more
wins as currently constructed beyond Well, let's start here really quickly. First,
how many games what I need to tell you Steph
Curry played in if they won fifty or more next year,
seventy right, at least seventy, Yeah, seventy. So Steph Curry's
playing in seventy games. What is the second single biggest
driving factor that would prop or launch them as that
fifty win mark.
Speaker 1: It's Kaminga and Pajemski becoming like plus plus starters. Like you,
they don't need to be All Stars, but they have
to be guys that are we're talking about as all
star can Like, oh, they might make their first All
Star Game like next you know what I mean, like
in a year or two, is that they would both
have to be Like wasn't it silly that we weren't
sure either of them was gonna start before the season,
like that kind of thing.
Speaker 2: Honestly, the more I talk to you, the more I
just want to I'm becoming higher on the Warriors, and
so I feel like this we need to move on.
I feel like this is what this meaning.
Speaker 1: Don't let me poison you, all right, Dan? Another another
tough West team. There's gonna be a lot kind of
in this range here. The Houston Rockets, they're over under
is forty three and a half wins they won where
they win last year forty one, forty one and forty
one and even five hundred last year? A million young players.
Are they all going to get better and and smoke
this number? Or are we going to be conservative? Here?
Speaker 2: I went under and there's which just feels so stupid.
I have them bet to be fair, I do have
them at forty three, so I didn't go oh did
I go over?
Speaker 1: No?
Speaker 2: No, three, forty three I went under. So there I'm
kicking an improvement and it just feels so stupid, like
I just because they're there, they should be better when
you're looking at all these young guys. But I really
do think that the minutes distribution of it all and
trying to figure out how to make everyone play together.
It's not that it can't happen. I just don't think
the Rockets are gonna prioritize winning as many games as
people think that they should. It feels like we're still
a season away from them kind of moving on from
the developmental aspect, from.
Speaker 1: The trade or whatever. They're like, that's not this year. No.
Speaker 2: I mean, maybe we're wrong there, but it's just you
could look can't wit more a'm and Thompson, Alfred Shanggun,
j'abari Smith, ju You're all those guys should be better,
But we're also out here sitting well, are they gonna
be able to find enough minutes to read Shepherd to
be in the Rookie of the Year mix and maybe
read Shepherd hurts you if you're playing up a ton.
I don't know. Oh, there's and there is sort of
the I don't want to say it's fluky. But are
we sure that this is going to be a top
seven defense? Again? I guess if you get better availability
from Tory Easton and Aman Thompson, why wouldn't it be
like those are two of your most important Shepard.
Speaker 1: Shepherd might be a real big plus on defense too, potentially.
Speaker 2: And so just like if you have Jabari Smith junior
and Dylan Brooks is still there in fred van Fleet,
there's no reason, there's no real reason this team should
be worse. And that's where I default to. Okay, progress
isn't linear. There's the West is going to be just
as tough, if not tougher, And I just think their
agenda it still extends beyond the season that we're talking
about now. Would it surprise me if they traded jail
and Green? No, But I don't know that they're going
to if they trade Jalen Green. I'm still not sure
that it's going to be as part of a consolidation trade.
Right now, it might just be for picks because we
want to consolidate our rotation. So and it's just I
have to believe that they're also going to want experiment
with certain things. What does it look like when Reed
Shepherd runs the offense? Does it looks like when A'm
and Thompson's on ball more and they do? Look? I
know people don't like to talk about this. It could work,
but you need to figure out that A'm and Thompson
Alprin Shangoun fit on the offensive end if you want
Am and Thompson off the ball. Okay, Like, how how
much does hanging out in the dunker spot work for you?
Can he do more as a screen or for al
Prince Shangun? Is he can he expand his Let's not
he's not gonna shoot threes, but can he hit more
of his floaters? Like dribble out of They're gonna give
him space by the three point line. Off the catch,
he's gonna dribble into a floater or mid range jumper.
There's I don't I think I have more? Do I
do you have more questions about this team on offense
or defense? I don't. This team is the continent. They
are stacked. If you told me they obliterated the over
I probably wouldn't be surprised, but I just think we're
a season away from them being trying to be Capslock good.
Speaker 1: So yeah, a couple of things. I'm annoyed that you
mentioned the progress isn't linear angle, because that was my
main justification for being under I'm also at forty three wins,
which is appropriate because you and I are wearing the
same uniform today, so we have to have the same picks.
So I think, like it's so easy to look at
all the young talent and say, well, they're all just
gonna be better, and like that's the The counter to
that is like, well, not necessarily, because progress isn't linear.
I think to expand on that, it's not like even
if all of them do get better, I do think
we're we're not considering enough. Like a leap from one
guy sort of has to come at the expense of
somebody else because you can't just play all eight of
these young guys at the same time to get like
you know what I mean. So, like, okay, Iman Thompson's awesome,
Like he has to be on the floor, all right,
So maybe Jabari Smith Junior like plays less or his
role is diminished or you know read Shepherd's unbelievable. Well
maybe Jalen Green doesn't play as much, So like there's
a little give and take. So it can be true
that all these guys do organically grow, but it's not
necessarily the case that they can all have these mass
of impacts just because it's a numbers game. There's a
finite number of minutes available, Like that's part of it.
The West being better is another factor, and I would
all and the scariest part is their point differential was
that of a forty six win team last year, So
like maybe that is just the baseline we should have
been working from. I would like to close by saying,
we both are saying that the Rockets will be better
than they were last year.
Speaker 2: We're just going under that's all. And by the way,
it wouldn't shock me if they win fewer games they did,
totally possible. We are onto then the Indiana Pacers. They're
over under set at forty seven and a half after
they won forty seven last year. This team's fascinating. Where
did you end up with them?
Speaker 1: So I hate that I ended up with an identical
win total as last year because everything points to them
being better than that, right, Like Tarius Haliburton wasn't the
same guy after the early January hamstring. Pascal Siaka will
be on the team all year. Maybe you get some
more growth from Nemhart, who was better in the playoffs
than during the regular season. I'm not we aren't banking
on this, but maybe Matheren and Walker both take steps
to being more, you know, bigger contributors to winning. So
I am under I'm I'm saying forty seven, which is
the same total as last year, and really that just
has more to do with I think the Calves are better.
I think the Sixers are better. I think the Knicks
are better. I think some of the like you know, six, seven,
eight nine range teams in the East are going to
be a little better, and that's gonna just kind of
offset a potentially better Pacers team and take a couple
of wins away from you know, Like I think I
started at forty nine because that felt like the right number,
and then I just kind of had to peel a
couple off to drop down.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm kind of with you, and this team is,
if we're being honest, how many how deep do they
go of players you trust. Is it six seven? I
think it? So it comes down to I think it's
probably six. Right, So you have Tyre's Aliburton, Andrew Demhard,
Pascal Siakam, Turner. I would throw TJ. McConnell and Aaron
Nee Smith in there, and then it's just okay, what
is Benn mcmathrin? What is Jaris Walker? Obi Toppin was
good last year? But what is he in the context
of a team that's maybe trying to be better defensively
this year? I there's by the way I went over though,
I still have them winning forty eight games, just okay.
Haliburton won't get injured a full year of Pascal Siakam.
I think wins in the middle of the East could
be harder to come by this season. It wouldn't shock
me if they won fifty plus. There's a clear pathway there,
and I think they have at least a core lineup
or two. They have core lineups that could be good defensively.
I still worry if you don't if Jars Walker isn't
exactly what you're missing on the defensive end. I don't
know what this team's defensive ceiling is is currently constructed
because last year, they were in close to the bottom five. Again,
they were twenty fourth in points allowed per possession. Like,
you could tell me they'll be better, but how much
better realistically can they be. I'm a defensive end this
year and that's good, Like all right. You could say
that they're going to offset it on offense, but they
were number two on offense last year. There's not there's
not right they get anywhere. We're down basically at this point.
So but I think enough if you think that Tyres
Halibert and Pascal Siakam are going to be there, and
those are two guys where there's no reason to just say, oh,
they're probably only gonna play in like fifty games or something.
So I I think there'll be a hair better that,
which is why I went over. I had a tough
time talking myself into them being like much better than
forty eight.
Speaker 1: Though this is one of the first teams we've had
where the range feels kind of narrow. I think like
the forty four to like fifty one is kind of
where we're at and we've had We just talked about
the Warriors at like a twenty win range potentially.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and there's just the Benedict Mather and Jaris Walker
of it all is fascinating because it's all right, will
they be playing a ton and if they are, is
it because they're playing well in impacting winning or is
it because they just don't have well? I mean when
it comes to Mathroo and I think the Pacers have
a ton of other options, but you have this equity
in him, and it's with Jars Walker's partically he feels
kind of essential, Like his development feels essential to them
now based off what they did over the off season.
Speaker 1: Yeah, like he's the way that they broaden their range, right,
Like if he's that guy, then oh a fifty four?
Like you know, it's something crazy is and I just
I don't think that's happening this year.
Speaker 2: If ever, right, I'll be with you there. Next team up,
Grant is your Los Angeles Clippers.
Speaker 1: Uh, Dan, this is a thirty eight and a half
over under for a team that won fifty one last year. Uh.
They have Kawhi Leonard, they have James Harden. Do they
have a bunch of guys that Kawhi Leonard said have
not stood out at camp? That was fun when he
said that. I don't think.
Speaker 2: Video of that what's that? Did you watch the full
video of those?
Speaker 1: I assume it was like grossly taken out of content.
Speaker 2: It wasn't. That's the problem. And so he kind of
went through the He named them all by name, and
he wasn't being saying they sucked individually by name, but
he like he mentioned all of them by names, say like, yeah,
obviously we have these guys on the roster, but no
nobody stood out, is what it was just like it
was probably unintentionally funny, but it was hysterically It's just like, oh.
Speaker 1: Alright, so thirty eight and a half is a low
number relative till last year lost Paul George though are
I mean, I know the answer, but tell me about
your clippers over underthoughts.
Speaker 2: I went hard under here and I think you texted
me this the I'll let you say what did you
text me? The other Well, just.
Speaker 1: That like this twenty five pick that they owe the
thunder that's unfucking protected, could go down as like an
all time like, oh my gouz, we haven't got to
the thunder yet, but newsflash, we both think they're gonna
be really great. You're adding, like what if it's Cooper
flag if we add Cooper flag to the thunder, Like,
what that's I think we can we've put it to bed,
but we could probably put to bed the uh, there's
two sides to who won the Paul George straight at
that point, like right right right, unbelievable that that could happen.
Speaker 2: It's just so if they're I just how many games
we both went under? Like that was just the I
have them at thirty one? Yeah, what did you have?
Speaker 1: Then I'm at thirty and like I think, I mean,
the the disaster potential is just like staring you in
the face. It's already kind of started because Kawhi Leonard
couldn't play with Team USA and is like take the
comments are like taking it slow day by day, like
it's like we know how this movie ends, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's it's I just my whole thing is
even if Kawhi Leonard plays, let's say Kawi Leonard hits
the sixty five game, like, let's just shoo that as
the threshold because that's for the awards, and I think
you would say objectively, oh, like that's a good position
to be. And they had Kawhi Leonard played like he
was able to make all NBA again or something they
had that last year, and the Clippers still lost the
minutes that Harden and Kawhi played without Paul George. It's
just I don't okay. Westbrook's not there anymore, so that
might help out a little bit, but when you go
through those lineups, he's actually not like a mainstay in
a lot of the most used combinations. So this team
just feels thin. And they got younger, they got more athletic,
but like we're kind of talking about, oh, they're gonna
give Kevin Porter Junior a really big role, It's not
like a good place to be in the year twenty
twenty four if you're trying to win basketball games. So
thirty one feels so low for a team that has
Kawhi Leonard and James Hardner are still stars when they
are healthy, they are still stars. And Avita's jubox is
really good. Norman Powell serves a purpose. There's talent on
this team, Derrick Jones, Junior, Chris Dunn that'll give you
more rim pressure, more defense. I just like, I don't know.
For me, it comes down to this that you are
banking on Kawhi Leonard being healthy enough to make you
a good basketball team, And I like, based off what
we've heard, like to just forget about Team USA but
to start training camp, I don't know how you make
that assumption.
Speaker 1: And I think in addition to that one, I think
you have to assume that James Harden is at least
as good as he was last year. And he's thirty
five and has not been a workout warrior ever and
is always a guy that like if things aren't going great,
whether it has to do with his role or the
team's success or anything like who knows what's on the
table there right, Like, so I am concerned Tyler's a
really good coach. There are like like if it's a
zuboats as good Terrence Man. They have like NBA players
up and down this roster. I'm concerned that, like the
group think has captured us and we're not being quite
critical enough of like, oh, the Clippers are done, they're
falling off, because that's what everybody thinks. But like, just
logically looking at it, the way that they beat this
number just involves too many things that I don't think
are going to happen. Like I just Kawhi health Harden
is at least as good as last year, and the
supporting cast is up for you know, even even Kawhi
health means sixty five. It's like, all right, that's seventeen.
Where it's hardening the hardenairs, like trying to be a
really good West you know, slate of teams.
Speaker 2: I don't know at full strength. This team is just
objectively less dynamic offensively than it was. Like you might
have more athleticism and more rim pressure, but you're not
as dynamic. Like who's there? Who's your third best creator
right now? Is it? Is it Kevin Porter Junior? Is
it Terrence Man? Is it Norman Powell?
Speaker 1: Yeah? Again, I'm worried that we're just you know, we're
not We've been captured but by everybody's thought. But it's
just like I I just don't see it.
Speaker 2: I mean, five rotations, no great shakes either. We're just
gonna assume that mobamba and maybe they're gonna see a
lot of Nicholas Patoum at center. It's just fine, right,
that's just cool.
Speaker 1: A guy who is basically out of the league and
another guy who's how old is Batoum? Is he thirty six?
Thirty seven?
Speaker 2: I think he's thirty five at least.
Speaker 1: I love Batom, but I mean that was a good
pick off.
Speaker 2: I thought he was gonna retire. I'm happy still the game.
Yeah he's thirty five. Yeah, So I'll ask you this,
what is more likely the Clippers win as many games
as last year, which was fifty one, or they trade
Kawhi Leonard n James Harden.
Speaker 1: Oh man, I think I got to take the trade
just because I don't. I do not think they can
win fifty one games, like even a great.
Speaker 2: One if you trade Kawhi. But then with James Harden,
it's like you might as well let him come off
the books. They'll decline his player option. What do you
get for James Harden? Maybe a teams want to give
you something and it's expiring contracts. But I would be
with you there, which is maybe that might be our
hottest like our most mainstream take is that all the
Clippers are more likely to trade Harden and Kuhi than
win fifty plus games.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I don't know. I don't know who's
I just you gotta find me the person that thinks
they're winning fifty one games. I just don't know who
that is.
Speaker 2: I don't know either. I don't even think they think
they're gonna win fifty one games?
Speaker 1: All right, Dan, another LA team here. I was really
surprised by this number. The Lakers have an over under
a forty two and a half and the.
Speaker 2: Juice normally flows to the Lakers. Maybe it was going
to the Warriors.
Speaker 1: They made me.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 1: This seems low to me, but I mean obviously based
on our numbers, like not not that low because especially
for me, where I went, Uh, but what so, how
do they beat this? How do they fall short of it?
Where do you land they?
Speaker 2: I have them beating it, but I have them at
forty three wins, and they were a team I took
some wins away from I think I initially had them
at forty five or forty six. The way they beat this,
like really beat it would be Lebron James and Anthony
Davis remain very healthy again. They're starting the five man
lineup that JJ Reddick outlined from the jump, and none
of those guys get hurt. And Jared Vanderbilt, who's not
healthy right now, stays healthy. Gave Vincent stays healthy, and
that's how you cake in your defensive improvement. And it
doesn't impact your offense. And next Christy contributes, he's you know,
flying around, there's a lot of motion and he's helping
you out there. I just sure I'd like for them
to hit. Like if we're using kind of forty eight
wins is just the barometer of Okay, do you belong
in the top or I mean last year was forty
nine wins, so you need to get the forty nine,
let's say, at the top six of the Western Conference
or forty seven to match up win tober from last year.
It feels like too many things need to be answered
in the affirmative for the Lakers to assume that that's
going to be that their best case outcome is attainable
because their best case like they have best case availability
at the top last year in Lebron and ad how
are we just how is that going to get better?
Speaker 1: It's not okay, I got no, That is the question though,
right Like because you can say, well, Gabe Vincent and
Jared Vanderbilt and like maybe D'Angelo Russell either is the
guy you need at that position or when you trade him,
he gets you the guy that you need at that position,
and and don't connect is like a positively impactful rookie.
We've like rolled our eyes at that for most the offseason.
Speaker 2: Notably, we've legitimately named no wings.
Speaker 1: During this time, so the roster has like even if
I mean that, I think the fixation is properly on
the availability of the best players, which was at like
A plus last year, and if it becomes a B minus,
then that's where you're in the high thirties as a
win like in win total. So I went under. I
went forty two.
Speaker 2: Like you though.
Speaker 1: This was I had them and a bunch of other
teams at like forty five, forty six, forty seven, and
then I was just like, well, that's that's not gonna work.
It's got to come from somewhere. I do think like
there's a fifty win team in here if all the
luck from last year carries over and also you get
Gabe Vincent for a full season and all this, you know,
all the other breaks happen in their favor. But I
just you can't count on seven What was I used?
I cited it a million times and stuff I wrote
over the offseason, but it's like it was the most
games Lebron had played in several years. It was mightbe
it might have been a career high for Davis. There's
like seventy plus for both of these guys, and it's
just one hundred and forty seven to I think was
the number seventy six and seventy one. That's not happening.
Speaker 2: The other thing that's slightly concerning. I don't necessarily get
caught up in this, but when you have Lebron saying
that it's not fair to have expectations in JJ Redick's
first season at the Helm, I'm like, all right, so
maybe they're just good. Are they gonna try and like
manage minutes and really plan around the future and be like, hey,
we're gonna actually really go for age forty one, Lebron?
Forget about age forty Lebron. I have a question for you.
I've been waiting for this one. Who is more likely
well as currently constructed, which team? I guess you already
said the Warriors will win more games than the Lakers.
Basically is where you have them. Which team is more
likely to try and make a trade that elevates their
immediate ceiling the Warriors and the Lakers.
Speaker 1: I would guess, Well, it's interesting because you're you're definitely
not bought in on the Warriors being as serious as
they've made themselves out to be on that front.
Speaker 2: Can you explain to me what evidence we have that
they are as serious as people want them to be on.
Speaker 1: That fronts news reports. No, I think it's my gut
reaction is the Lakers are more likely to make that
trade because Lebron puts pressure on the franchise to do
stuff like that in ways that Curry never really has.
And I guess if all things being equal, like we
kind of know how both guys operate, or at least outwardly,
maybe Curry puts just as much on he just doesn't
like subtweet the franchise. Well, so I guess, I guess Lakers.
Speaker 2: I actually think it's the Warriors in part because of
what again, those Lebron comments are like seared into my
brain just not really something that he said before that
he has nothing left to prove, and people get mad, No,
like he had nothing left to prove like he does,
like he's the greatest player of all time. I just
I'm sorry, Michael Jordan could be in the conversation. I
just you could talk about the record in the finals.
He got there a zillion times. My whole thing is
the Warriors they acted over the offseason, even though I
think some of it was performative, they actually did make
additions and changes to their roster. You know what the
Lakers did. They have to don't connect and they resigned
Max CHRISTI h I just so I don't buy like
I and I can't buy into the Lakers really believing
that there's a much better team in there from last
year just because of Darvin Ham. Even if you think
Darvin Ham, let's say he cost them six wins, that's
such an arbitrary number, but that would bring him to
fifty three. Are you gonna get let's just say, okay,
joj Reddick brings that team out. Are they gonna be
healthy enough to be a fifty three win team that
was last year? Like, there's just one of Lebron James
and Anthony Davis is going to miss extensive time. It's
probably gonna be Anthony Davis, if not both of them.
And maybe we're wrong. If you told me they played
in and if I told you they played in as
many games together as they did last year, what would
you like nudge up your total to what would it
still be a fight goal.
Speaker 1: I'd go over, yeah, I think, I well, I probably not.
I'd go like forty five forty six, I think just
because the West.
Speaker 2: Has one fewer, one too fewer than last year, which
is wild. The West is brutal. You know why the
West is also brutal because the Great are kind of
sort of they're back in the sense that they're still
snake bitten. That's for sure. Over under forty seven and
a half. I'm sorry, I keep taking the West teams.
I apologize.
Speaker 1: That's okay, I no, So yeah, forty seven and a half.
This was one for me that, like, I really don't
feel like my prediction squares with what I think about
the team. But let's hear from you first, where do
you have the Grizzlies?
Speaker 2: So I went under, which means that Grizzlies fan should
be excited because every time I've gone under, they've went over.
And the wonder I went over Grant was last year
and guess what happened. Here's my whole thing with it.
I could easily see them winning fifty something games again.
But you're gonna tell me that. Ja Morant, Jared Jackson Junior,
those guys aren't gonna miss time. Jared Jacks Junior's missed
time previously in his career, that Marcus Smart isn't gonna
miss time. We already know Gigi Jackson is gonna miss time,
and that Vince Williams could miss a bunch of time.
You're still kind of thin on the wings. Do you
have enough shooting to open up your half court offense
beyond Lukunard who, by the way, someone else who's probably
going to miss time. And then the other thing that
I think we're not waiting enough, and maybe it's we
have seen rookies come in and just be immediately impactful,
including rookie big men. Zaki's just gonna play a crap
ton of minutes and they're gonna be a lot better
off for it. In addition to all these injuries kind
of floating around. We had someone on our YouTube comments
I just said, this was spicy. I wouldn't predict it.
They're like, Zach Edy's gonna lead the league in rebounds
if he gets enough minutes. What but how many minutes
is he playing to do that? And if you're playing that,
I thought Zakiyen was gonna play maybe twenty five minutes.
If he leads the league in rebounds, he's probably playing
thirty plus. What does that do to your offense? Is
it gonna be good? I think defensively they'll just be fine.
The Jared Jackson Junior Zach Edy perring is just so intuitive.
I'm not worrying about Zach Edy on defense, even relative dislimitations.
There are just too many question marks with this team.
And I know you can say you could play the
health game with every single team. Okay, fine, let's say
they're relatively healthy, even though at this moment we know
that they're not. What is the ceiling offensively for them?
It's just do they have enough to really? I know
Desmond Bain and Jared Jackson Junior got a lot better
last year, but this is still a team that, even
when it's at its best, it's always struggled to generate
efficiency in the half court. Let's go back to twenty
two to twenty three when they were what were they
second in the West twenty second in half court efficiency
the year before that, also twenty second and half court
efficiency the year before that, bottom five in half court
efficiency twenty nineteen, twenty twenty twenty second in half court efficiency.
The Grizzlies have not had grant an above average half
court offense since twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, and it's just
what are the pieces that make you believe that's gonna
change this year. I guess it just comes down to
a healthy Ja Morant and Desmond Baine and a healthy
Marcus Smart and then if Lucnard is stretching the floor, sure,
but we just named a lot of variables that are
just a healthy Ja Morant and Marcus Smart and a
healthy Lucunar. It's it's just a there's I know every
team has helped question marks. There are now officially just
too many here for me to assume they're going to
resume their fifty win pace. And this is all to
say I have them under at forty four, and it's
stung because that's really low. But I think when you
couple the injury risks with what I still believe for
some offensive limitations, with the fact that I think they're
gonna be really reliant on someone who still needs to
develop in the middle and Zach Edy. Again, maybe I'm
overweighting that because Zach Edy's a was a four year
college player. Those dudes come in maybe they can make
more of an immediate impact. There's just something or some
things off about this team that is tough for me
to square away.
Speaker 1: So I'm at forty seven, and this was another case
where like I think there's fifty five when upside like
with this team, and the way that would happened is
like the games Desmond Bane and Jared Jackson Junior had
to make offensively last year stick and Moran is just Morant,
Like he's right back to you know, top ten MVP
type guy, which is like, I don't know, we're like,
I think he's a guy that's gonna like when the
falloff comes, cause his game is so based on athleticism
and he's small, Like it's gonna come quick. I don't
think we're we're there yet. Like I think he's got
two three more like peak, you know, like he just
physically dominates games with his athleticism levels. The injuries are
a huge concern, and again this is just like so
for me, I have the Grizzlies winning forty seven and
I have the Pacers winning forty seven. I think the
Grizzlies are a way better team than the Pacers. It's
just like when you're gaming out the West and you're
trying to you get this far into the over unders.
We're more than halfway through. You start looking at like, well,
where do I think the Grizzlies are going to fall?
And it's like, well, if I give him fifty five,
I think I have him winning the conference or like
second in the conference that I don't see. So like
if I think Teams X, Y and Z or you know,
fifty two to fifty one forty nine, it's like, well,
Memphis I don't think is better than any of them,
so I just have to move him down and peeling
off wins. So like I'm higher on him than you are,
I think, but like I still I'm technically under and
I hate it because I just think the Grizzlies have
such potential to beat that number. It's just that the
West is hard, and like the downside's real, right, like
the health stuff, And it's if the health stuff weren't
already happening, I think I probably would have gone over.
But it's just like, oh no, here, it's go here
we go again. I think that's that scared me a
little bit.
Speaker 2: That brings us to the Miami Heat. They're over unders
forty four and a half grant, where do you land
with this team?
Speaker 1: So I'm over. I'll just spoil it there, but this
was really hard, Like I I think, like, and again
I'm not saying you did this, but I could be
so easily persuaded that like, yeah, forty nine, no problem.
I have at forty five, so just barely beating it.
But if you just go down the list and say, like, Okay,
Jimmy Butler's all business this year, and so it is
Tyler Herro. He also got a haircut, so that means
you're all business, and then bam out of Bayo. We
love him and Terry full season of Terry Rogier and
like maybe the whole we don't you know, really bring
it regular season wise. Talking to Butler specifically, maybe there's
been enough of that and that changes. I just I
do think that Butler is at an age where some
slippage is real. The availability that pat Riley pointed out
pretty publicly is that's just the thing that's he didn't
make that up. And I think in.
Speaker 2: Jimmy Butler's comments on those comments, he shows up late
to media day and he's talking about how he just
wants to be more available, and Pat was right, yeah,
And I'm like, I kind of vibe it, like I
think that that's like I don't think it was him
being passive aggressive. I was just I think I kind
of vibe it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I I think like, again, that's why I
could see I could see them being fourth in the
East or whatever. But I do think that again, the
offense is going to be a problem because it's depends
like way too much on Tyler hero who but like,
by the way, like even when he's been healthy and
on the floor, like he actually has not been like
the needle mover offensively that they like the makeup of
the roster would suggest that he is or needs to
be like the Dawn off stuff is pretty balanced whether
he's out there or not. So I'm factoring in the
injury stuff, pricing in whatever might happen with Butler. We
have to acknowledge that like they might trade him or
he might you know, things might go Minnesota sideways potentially,
like not likely, but possible. So I'm over, but it's
you know, by half a.
Speaker 2: Win here I went over as well. I went to
forty six with them, I believe, And which is the
exact same number they had last year, and I'm kind
of just like bo will carve out wins from this team.
I do think that I don't know if I would
expect offensive progression. They're still way too reliant on Jimmy
Butler in that sense. But if you have a healthy
Tyler Hero on Terry Rozier, that's a ton of floor space.
Saying BAM has continued to get incrementally better, I am
curious what the offense like is there? What is the
lineup structure that you can build to where you are
net positive when Jimmy Butler's off the court, or like
at least putting up a functional offense, But you might
be still so good defensively it doesn't matter. I think
it's slightly concerning that the Heat had an offensive rating
in the twelve percent tile last year and BAM played
without Butler, and I don't know. I mean, again, if
you have both Hero and Rosier, but if you're playing
them during those stretches, what does the defense look like.
You are also asking Hayward high Smith to take on
a bigger role this year, I assume Nakole Yovitch will
be taking on even more of a bigger role. I
think there are enough interesting pieces here. It's what I
struggle with is and maybe we're guilty of this like
kind of up and down when we're talking about the
Lakers and the Warriors, is when is the right time,
even if you haven't seen it, to like assume there's
going to be real regression from these aging stars, whether
it's Lebron, whether it's Steph, whether it's Jimmy Butler, whether
it's a Damian Lillard, who will probably talk about in
a second. I just think there's enough guys that could
get better off that sort of special heat sauce, whether
it's high Smith, what Himahawk is junior of course Khalil
whare I see is fascinating to me. I think, if
nothing else, this team's games will be ugly. I don't
know if they're built to play any faster, because they
don't play particularly fast. They might be ugly, but they
still should be able to defend their asses off when
you look at the personnel that they have, and if
you could just get better availability from Jimmy Butler, like
two of Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier. When
looking at what happened with his neck towards the end
of last season. I think that's enough to be where
you're at last year, which would clearly over on this
And that's just kind of where I land with Miami.
Speaker 1: Yeah, similar, similar, thinking the Bucks.
Speaker 2: At fifty point five, mister Grant Hughes, I think this
is one where we differ. So I'm excited. Tell me
where your thoughts are with this team.
Speaker 1: I have to find my number. Oh yeah, okay, So
I so I think Damian Lillard is gonna be better.
I think the off court adjustment, like went through a
divorce like all that stuff.
Speaker 2: He's also missing, by the way, I'm sorry.
Speaker 1: You know right, I know where you're going. Go ahead, Okay,
go ahead.
Speaker 2: If you were gonna make the point to make your so.
Speaker 1: No, no, no, this is your point.
Speaker 2: He was missing open threes like this is That's not
a sign of oh, like man, Dame's getting old. Like no,
this wasn't oh Dame couldn't get into the lane or
finish anything on drives. This was Damian Lillard was missing
a shot that basketball players in their where he's could
make and that's not going to continue. I'm sorry, I know, I.
Speaker 1: Totally agree with that, and I think he will be better.
I think it's equally, if not more likely that the
Chris Middleton Brook Lopez combo is like worse enough that
it offsets that. Right. So, like the Middleton dual ankle
surgery is the pretty persistent you know, oh, we're ramping
him up, We're ramping them up, and then like the
ramp up yields minute totals in the twenties and we're
just like, okay, so, and he's still critically important to
this team. Now that's typically discussed in the context of
like can they win a championship, We're just talking about
how many regular season games are they gonna win. I think,
if anything, Chris Middleton will be treated like very carefully
and not make a huge impact during the year. So
even if he is, you know, looking pretty good, maybe
he's not allowed to play as much as you might
need to beat this fifty point five brook Lopez is
way past the age where you'd say this guy is
gonna fall off. Has been super durable the last two years.
After some pretty scary back stuff three years ago. Just
at some point that you were asking, like, when should
we expect these older guys to slip? I'm going under
at forty nine wins here, just because I think that
should be the likeliest outcome for a couple of really
key guys on the bucks. I also don't believe in
Doc Rivers as like the guy to sort this mess out,
because we got a pretty large sample last year and
it wasn't any better than what Adrian Griffin got fired
for record wise, So I don't like going under because
I think Giannis sets such a high floor. But even
he's someone like now you would have known it last
year career high true shooting, second year of over thirty
points a game, still awesome defensively, even he's someone that
we're at the point where like a lot of his
game is based on athleticism, it's not just effort and
like skill, tiny slippage there, because if Giannis isn't like
top five MVP, then I'm not sure where you're getting
over fifty wins here with with this team. So there's
just like a lot of ways to like inject a
little doubt. And I bought enough of them to go under.
Speaker 2: I say we differ. I went over, but I went
over with fifty. Oh wait, did I go under? That's
a typo. I went over at fifty one wins, I
believe I have them taken it for so yeah, this
is I would agree with everything.
Speaker 1: No, you're under. You got them for fifty. I'm looking
at it right now.
Speaker 2: I am at fifty all right, I went under so
look at that. I could see them easily if we
didn't differ at all. So I think you outlaid all
my concerns. My other thing that even if they're healthy,
how many how many players deep do they go that
you trust? I asked the same question with I don't
even remember which team it was now, was it the Clippers? Whatever?
But how many? I think you can argue six if
you want to include Bobby Portis plus the starting five
and after that it's okay. The Lownwright and torn and
Prints at the minimum is good. How much do you
trust them? Are you going to get real minutes from
aj Green or Tyler's the rookie Tyler Smith? Does Pat
Connton play better this year? Is the marje On Bochamp
like era over before it even could have potentially began?
And if we're at a point where you're saying, okay, Millard, Giannis, Brook,
Lopez and Middleton have all had their best seasons already,
their best days are behind I'm not saying regression, but
their best days are behind them. And now we're starting
to get into the bench and it's okay. I still
want to say this is a fifty win team and
I would believe it. I thought I went over so
you can see where I'm at with the Bucks. I
probably ended up pulling a win from them last minute
to give to someone else. I just there's more drop
off potential here and they could wind up I'm just wondering.
I also wonder how much of a focus will be
to win regular season games. They could just decide, like,
will finish top six, and we think we can match
up with anyone in the playoffs and beat them, and hey,
you look at their top five guys, you're probably right,
Like that's starting lineup, if everyone's healthy, is going to
be a killer.
Speaker 1: Great point. This is a team that, like I, I
think we're both uncomfortable going under because we both have
so much respect for Giannis and think he's so great
and believe that Lillard will bounce back. But it's like
this just isn't a team that's going to be chasing
regular season wins because their issues in the postseason have
been health like these first round outs have been health
related for the most part. So it's like if they
get in with forty six wins, then they're just like,
we'll take our chances with a healthy Dame and Giannis
and Middleton who's been babied all year, and we think
we can beat anyone. So I would say, I'll speak
for you, like, I think we believe them to be
a better like title threat than a team that could
like win the East in the regular season, right, Like
I don't think that's the goal.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, this next team, grant body, all.
Speaker 1: Right, So the Minnesota Timberwolves come in with an over
under a fifty two and a half, which is down
from the fifty six games they won last year with
the differential of a fifty eight win team, best defense
in the league probably not going to change. If it does,
they'll be second or third best.
Speaker 2: And I know we proved that Karl Anthony Towns was
the secret sauce behind everything.
Speaker 1: That was the reason Rudy Gobert is washed. France was
right to bench him all the time in the Olympics.
So this one's fascinating because we have the cat for
Julius Randall and de Vincenzo trade. We have the Anthony
Edwards potential ascent, We've got, like, just so, where are
you on the fifty two and a half for them?
Speaker 2: I went over. I ended up pulling wins from them though,
because I initially had them. I think at like fifty
six or fifty seven. It might have been fifty six again,
but I was just kind of thinking that I went
with fifty three, so I have them over. I'm just
wondering it's going to take time. This wouldn't be I'll
say it this way. It wouldn't shock me if this
is a team where everyone's demanding they tear it down
or they're hitting the panic button like fifteen games in
the season, because it takes a while to implement Julius
Randall and figure out which lineups to run him in,
how you're going to use him. The more I thought
about the trade, I do think that the Knicks took
on more risk and the Timberwolves when you're looking at
both the short and long term, because I think that
you could very easily just decided Julie Randall's that poor
of a fit Rite and Off, don't play him. He
probably won't opt out then, but then he's just this
huge expiring contract. That's the worst, worst, worst case scenario.
But Julius Randall, despite being divisive and rightfully so, he's
a hard player to fit in. But like he's going
to have more on blow gravity and if you decide, okay,
you start him, we're gonna heavily stagger him so that
he's gonna spend a majority of his minutes running second
unit heavy lineups, or it's going to be Devincenzo and
nas Reed will be around him more than Jade McDaniels
and Rudy Gobert together. Like if so, if you're worried
about the spacing from that perspective, and so, I think
there could be a slower learning curt And honestly, I
wonder if the timing of the trade almost helps them
because it forces Julius Randall to streamline himself, whereas I'm
just catching and decision making. I'm not really isolating even
in these lineups where maybe Anthony Edwards isn't on the court.
And I also think that while I'm concerned about the
fit between Randall and Anthony Edwards, ANTHI Edwards is a
good off ball shooter, and just like like you weren't
really concerned about the fit of like Kyle Anderson being
on the court. Sometimes when they have the edwards is like,
what's the difference here? Like Julius Randall's going to be
at least I think he does things that they were
missing on offense. Even if it comes at the expense
of some floor spacing and you make up a lot
of that floor spacing with Donte DiVincenzo, I still would
have liked to have seen them keep towns. I think
they had a championship ceiling, and this doesn't feel like
that Boston offseason where the turnover instantly results in a title.
It feels like it could need more time to marinate.
I think they're going to be better than this fifty
two and a half line, but I do think it's
going to take a little while for it all to
come together. And the other final thing is I don't
think this will be as big of a factor because
they have Julius Randall now, but like, if you aren't
gonna try and play Rob Dillingham, that's going to be
something that kind of adds to the learning curve of
the entire team.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's right. I so I can see
the like it's gonna take a minute to angle and
I but I can also see like I feel like
I understand the theory of how this team could really pop,
which is like the depth is these guys are eight deep,
like no question because you like you can have whether
it's read, it'll be read. I guess like, although I'm
just like I want to start reading. I want Randall
in the second unit. That's not gonna happen, I don't think.
Speaker 2: But you could stagger it that way.
Speaker 1: You can stagger it. So yeah, but you're you're six
seven eight right now. Is Devincenzo one of the best
shooters in the league, Dillingham I guess who like doesn't
have a heavy lift now? And and Reid who won
six man in the year.
Speaker 2: I would actually argue that you're selling because I was
gonna say the kil Alexander Walker read and Dante DiVincenzo
for me, Yeah, I mean, I'm trying to think about
some of the best, Like if you're running out, let's
say Devincenzo naw read and just think about how you
can flesh out like those three bench guys together, I
probably put like Julius and like I throw out whoever
you want at that. I mean, if you want to
go Dillingham and really lead into the bench, sure, but
keep Jane McDaniels out there. Just there's so many different
ways they could go. And you're right, they're just eight
deep of guys that even if you don't like Julius Randall, like,
they're eight deep of really good.
Speaker 1: NBA right, And this is a little bit the reverse
of the Bucks, where I think this team is like
really well constructed for a lot of regular season wins
because they're just gonna have a bunch of above average
or like actually just subjectively good NBA players on the
floor all the time, and you can lose like Nazrid, Okay,
we love Nosrid gets hurt. Well, McDaniels can play some
four and you have Julius Randall like Gobert gets hurt.
I suppose that is like kind of or or diminishes
a lot. Like your defense is gonna have some issues.
But like I don't think Anthony Edwards is done getting better.
I think Jade McDaniels might have another gear and it's
just the depth and the fit if if they can
play it right, there's so many configurations that make sense
to me, and that that will just beat the Pelicans
on a Tuesday in March, you know, like there's just
so many ways they can rack up these wins. So
I'm over. I think I have them at fifty four,
and this was another team that I was like two
or three higher that again had to peel some off.
Speaker 2: So honestly, it wouldn't shock me they just won more
games than they did because you could argue they care
more about the playoffs. I actually think they might be
better built for the regular season right now than the
playoffs after the trade because it not only that's all
about the Julius Randall playoff track record totally also with
some of the Rudy Gobert matchup stuff there. So uh,
but it wouldn't shock me if they won like fifty nine.
It just ye next team up, New Orleans Pelicans.
Speaker 1: Dan, This is a forty five and a half over under,
which is pretty good for a team that doesn't have
a center, so and also quite a bit lower than
last year's total when the Pelicans won, where they win
forty nine. What are your thoughts on the on your pels,
they're very much your Pels.
Speaker 2: Well, I think people a lot of Pelsons haven't gotten
mad because I've been pretty pessimistic on how they've gotten
to this roster construction. I'm going over here in spite
of not loving their setup, I have them at forty
eight wins and if they eventually make a move to
kind of balance out what their team should look like.
The Trey Murphy injury is a bummer. You do have
to factor in the Zion Williamson injury potential of it all.
But Zion last year was close to one of the
like when he was healthy, ten best players in basketball,
certainly one of the fifteen best players in basketball when
he was healthy. So I just like I understand this
team can be dynamic even when they're playing small. I
think it's encouraging that we saw them start Daniel Tice
the other night. I don't again, I don't love the
center set up, but at least shows okay, we're not
gonna play small out of the gate. And I love
how people conflate us saying the Pelican is not having
a center or playing small, or Zion as the big. Well,
Zion's not gonna play the five. I understand what they're
gonna do. But that doesn't make me feel any better
when it's you're trying to make these wings do a
lot of the big man stuff around him. So I
think it's encouraging that. Okay, they're not going to start
small from the jump, and maybe they'll probably close that way.
I just if this team is going to reach its peak,
there needs to be some type of a like semi
significant trade. I mean maybe if you just got a
center using a smaller salary, sure, if it's Jordan Hawkins
for Walker Kessler, if there's a framework there that you
can get to, I probably feel a lot better. But
in ani likelihood, it needs to be something were well,
can you reorient around a brandon Ingram trade? And even
if they can't, I still think they'll be a really
good team. But I think the best version, if they're
going to reach contention and blow past forty eight forty
nine get into the fifty win territory, this will not
be the team that we see today. I still think
if everyone's healthy, and this is me like kind of
caking in relatively good health, I think the de Jente
Murray edition is going to matter. They could certainly flirt
with that fifty win total.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with that. I'm over by a smaller
margin than the you I got them at forty six,
and that really just isn't I think they will add
a center, and if that comes via an Ingram trade,
that makes your you know, that just gives herb and
a healthy Trey Murphy those minutes. I love it. And
the design injury risk the lack of a center, I
think Murray, Like, I got pretty far into my thinking
for on this number before I was like, oh shit,
they have the Jonte Murray right, Like, I just like,
it's crazy that that's an afterthought, but it kind of is,
because you know, everybody's discussing the center stuff like to
you know, much more frequently. The upside is big, especially
like what if Zion like just has the best year
of his career, which is like something you would expect
from someone at this stage of his career if you
didn't have the injury history. Maybe that's just over. Maybe
he's in the best shape ever. Like that's you know,
that's plausible to me. We haven't seen it really yet
for a full season, but it could happen. I again,
like you start trying to slot teams into a hierarchy
in the West, and it's just like, well, I can't
put them above Denver can't put them above a minute,
so you just you know, the winds start falling off.
But yeah, you know, the four we're both still over,
I guess is the positive sign here for Pelicans fans.
And we're generally just like lower on several West teams
as far as like compared to last year's win totals,
and I just think that's a reflection of like there
except for one probably there's most of the teams in
the West I think on the higher end are just
going to lose a win or two. I think just
because there's so much quality up and down the conference.
Speaker 2: I'm trying to think, Yeah, so I think we've gotten
past every team the West that will qualify for this.
The consensus we have as the top four, this is it. Well,
I mean this isn't a spoiler, so okay, see Dallas, Denver, Minnesota.
I'm not necessarily it's in that order. Which is the
team that would be most likely to party crash that
top four and bounce someone out. You don't have to
pick who they're bouncing out, but the team we haven't.
Speaker 1: Talked about one of them yet or two of them
actually or not just one. I think, I mean Memphis
is in the conversation, we'll talk about Phoenix as the
other one.
Speaker 2: Probably I figure ot about Phoenix. Yeah, all right, actually
speaking of that is not our consensus top four apparently
when I went through and didn't mind, so that I
think that means that we need to move on. So
Eastern Conference time, New York Knicks over under fifty four.
Speaker 1: And a half.
Speaker 2: Grant? Where are you at with your Knicks?
Speaker 1: Man? Like, so I'll just I'll just spoil it now.
I know we're not trying to do it this way,
but like, I'm under, and I hate it because I
just I think the talent, the top end talent on
this team is absurd. The reason the main reason I
went under, I guess there's two is I do think
that I'm glad we haven't gone to this well quite
so often in the last several teams, because I think
it's really specifically applicable here. A Jalen Brunson injury is catastrophic,
and so I'm pricing that into going under at fifty two.
If I didn't say that already, And I think there
are depth issues that's going out on a limb here
when you trade, you know, multiple rotation guys for one
I Douce McBride I like, and then after that the
bench is like, I don't know. So fifty two wins
is a lot of wins. It's actually fewer than they
won last year. Or no, it's more they only won
fifty last year. So I'm I've got nothing to explain here.
I think the Knicks are going to be better than
they were a year ago. I just don't think they're
hitting fifty four and a half they I don't think
very many teams in the West, are in the East
are going to get over that number.
Speaker 2: See I went under as well, and what I didn't
go under by much? I have him at fifty three
right now. I was like kind of vastling between Adham
Cleveland and that fifty three to fifty two wins spot.
My issue is here, like a carently Towns feels like
he'll be more plug in play, but you outline the
Jahn brunts and stuff. They're a team that just exhausted
their asset stores and have now made themselves arguably more
dependent on their best player than they were before. That's
iffy and part because of the depth, but also just
the shot creation, the playmaking. You can talk about what
everyone else did. You can talk the Chal Bridge a
perfect example. He was on the Nets last year as
basically their featured option. Grant he didn't rank in the
top fifty of unassisted two pointers made or unassisted three
pointers made top fifty in the league. That's doesn't mean
he's a bad player, but like, don't just pencil and
McHale Bridges. He's a viable number two right, just what
Carl Anthony Towns wasn't in that top fifty either. And
you also have the depth issue. This isn't the Timms.
The thing that what makes me want to go over
is like Tim's is gonna coach to win fifty seven,
like he wants the one seed. But but this isn't
the Tims thing. These players haven't played for Tims for
too long. Oji Nanobi has played in seventy or more
games or the equivalent looking at the shortened season twice
in his career. Carl Anthony Towns has done so once
over the past half decade. This team has players that
and yes, Michel Bridges is an iron man. I tend
to view that as as you continue to get older,
that you're just overdue to miss some time. Josh Hart
played a zillion minutes last year mostly out of necessity.
What if that catches up to him. I'm just I'm
not predicting all of this, but stuff is gonna come up.
We already know Mitchell Robinson's going to miss time, So
your top second unit guys are Duce McBride and then
you get to like Precious a Chua or is it
Andrew Shammy?
Speaker 1: Yeah? Is that?
Speaker 2: And that's a weird spot to be in. And I
don't really know that they're not out of trade options,
but like, what is the move We're using Mitchell Robinson's salary,
assuming the team still want him to try and get
like two players and you can still aggregate, So is it,
you know, trading two players for three or you I've
seen that they might be interested in Marcus Smart, which
I don't really understand because I think I'd rather have
Deuce McBride at his price point, although it might say
more about, well, we think Marcus mart can defend Biggs
and now we have Carl Anthony Towns is our center.
I think this team's gonna be really good. I think
they're kind of how I just said that. The Timberwolves,
to me, feel like they're better built to dominate the
regular season than playoffs. The Knicks feel like, if they're healthy,
they're gonna be more of a nightmare playoff matchup than
when we're looking at surviving the regular season. What's counterintuitive
about that, though, is that if they're healthy, if no
one misses time, they're probably gonna win like sixty something
games because Tim's is gonna coach them that way.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a weird thought exercise. I was and I
couldn't decide on it, so I scrapped it. But maybe
you can get there. It's like on the nights where
Jalen Brunson's not playing, and it's just like campaign right
or or whoever like is is the rookie is at
that position, right, Like how good is that team? And
you want to say, like, well, bridges an Anobi cat
like heart, that team is still really good overall talent wise,
but it's like you just don't have the guy that
is going to put these other players in positions to
score and like generate his own stuff. And it's so
I think you said your point about like they got
more talent, and they also somehow like made Jalen Brunson,
like his unique skill set even like more precious and
rare like that. That is the real That's where I
really come down on this is like it's all fallen
apart if Brunson's not there, and that's just priced into
the fifty two wins.
Speaker 2: I think he finished last year injured and he played
a bunch of minutes, and so it's just like, even
let's say these guys don't get injured, is there a
chance for And by the way, Jalen Brunson specifically, I'm
not predicting regression, but if he's anything less than a
top five MVP candidate, again, you could argue maybe you're
not worse as a basketball team, you're probably certainly worse
in the regular season.
Speaker 1: When you're just looking at wins. He's another guy where
it's like how much better can he can't get better?
Like right, like that's just I mean, the odds he
gets better are like five percent. Like it's just this
is about as good as you can be.
Speaker 2: I'll push back and say he has never played with
this type of usage, with this type of spacing. He
had the space and Dallas not the usage, And in
New York he's had the usage and not the spacing.
But even so, it's Jalen Brunson getting five percent better.
When you don't have a call who is who is
their second most who's their second best player, or who's
their second most important player, who's their second most valuable player?
I don't there might be answer different answers questions.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean to me, my first reaction was anonobe
just because of like why he what he means to
the cat of it all, like at center, and but
like he's definitely not creating his own shots. So like
the thing is, like there isn't there isn't that guy
because normally you would say it would be that guy,
or like probably a lot of people would say Bridges
because they remember that stretch where he looked like a guy.
Oh my god, he's not a third option on Phoenix.
He actually is someone that can run an offense.
Speaker 2: I just don't.
Speaker 1: I don't think the most recent evidence bears that out.
I don't think he is that guy. So I don't know.
I'll be with you, Dan big one here. I've been
waiting to discuss this one with you, mostly because your
win total is fantastic fifty six and a half for
the Oklahoma City thunder who, by the way, h one
fifty seven last year, have lots of young players and
added two incredible rotation pieces to the roster. Where I
feel like half jokingly ask you, what do you think
about that? Fifty six and a half.
Speaker 2: Way too low? I get, I understand, Okay, fifty seven
is a lot and so kind of the theory that
you used with the Celtics of have to win less?
Right in this case? The answer is no, show me
the what is the weakness of this team? Where's the
where's the hole? You can talk about? I don't want
to get into the championship stock of it all, even
though I think of their championship ship stock is higher
than ever in terms of strictly regular season victories. Why
is this team winning fewer than sixty games?
Speaker 1: That's rhetorical.
Speaker 2: I have them at sixty five.
Speaker 1: I guess I have to explain that since I anyway,
go ahead, So.
Speaker 2: I have them at sixty five. You don't have to
go that far over. But I think this is a
comfortable over for me. You could say, am I not like,
what am I supposed to factor in another? You, I'm
not wishing this in anything. There's one player they can't lose,
and it's Shay Gillig Alexander, and he's not a player
that you can factor in. He missed time when they
weren't trying to win. Yeah, and so they could lose
Chet Holmgren for the season again. And she's like, well,
they have like another top fifteen on the roster, and
I say, a hard stud. So I I'm so unbelievably
high on this team. And I don't think that they
have any material weaknesses. If I had to pick one
from my perspective, it would be do they have enough
shot creation? Bankable shot creation outside of shake Gil just Alexander.
I'm just gonna assume, like you're a little bit more
dynamic with Isaiah Hartenstein here the stuff he could do
out of the short role. And I'm just going to
assume that Jalen Williams end or Chet Homer and get better,
which isn't necessarily a major leap to make. So my
question to you is, are you prepared to explain yourself
for being so low on this team? Right?
Speaker 1: I'm a fifty nine, So I'm over. I will explain
my process. I needed to make sure that one the
Thunder had the highest win total of any I'm over,
What are you doing? Don't give me an under on there?
Speaker 2: Oh, Typo? Sorry? How dare you that?
Speaker 1: I could not explain if I was under. I needed
to make sure they had the best record in the West,
which they do here. I needed to make sure I
pencil them in for more games, more wins than they
got last year, which I did narrowly. Going from fifth seven,
I am at fifty nine, and I needed to do
that while balancing this goddamn win loss thing. And so
if I just in my heart of hearts, I think
the number for me is like sixty two. But I
just couldn't get that high. I just needed to get
a high enough number to accomplish those other two things,
which I did. Uh, I'm There's no other team I'm
higher on than the Thunder this season. I don't have
anybody winning sixty games spoiler for the what ten teams
we got left? So yeah, I like, I feel like
I do need to explain myself, Like why is your
prediction of fifty nine wins so low? But like that
if that doesn't illustrate what I think about the Thunder,
then I don't know what does. I said, they're My
hot take was they're going to have three All Stars
this year because I think Williams and and Chet can
get there to join Shay. So like, yeah, yeah, I mean, is.
Speaker 2: He so honestly the path to them even hitting me
under if we're not factoring in injuries. Is it just
that the wins are just so evenly distributed throughout the
West where it's like we have five teams that are
like fifty four and twenty six.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the path is like they never have to play
the Jazz Blazers, Clippers like that. I don't know. Yeah,
they only play the other top teams in the West.
Something reticulous. Yeah, So, I mean the depth is unbelievable.
Like SGA is another guy that's like how much better
can he actually get? Like because he's been second in
MVP voting, so I guess technically he can be slightly better,
but he's an All NBA shoe in. Like, I do
think there's at least a couple other guys that we
might discuss in that level. If it's not this year,
then like towards the end of the year next year,
and just like you know, to illustrate your point of
like other than SGA, it's like, oh my god, what
if Lou Dort pulls a hamstring. It's like, well, Alex
Crusoe is probably gonna be just fine guarding people. And
like I go through this team and I just forget
Cason Wallace is on it, and it's like, I mean,
he's one of our favorite rookies last year. That guy
is just gonna make threes and defend and like what
if he adds like anything else? Right, and Aaron Wiggins
hit half his three's last year, that's like your tenth guy.
I mean, Isaiah Joe is like an actual difference maker
as a movement shooter who you can use as a screener.
There's just like, I mean, it's a little bit like
the Rockets argument where you can't have all ten of
their awesome players on the court at the same time.
But that also means that they're always just gonna have
guys that cause huge problems on both ends, Like they're
never they're never going to have a spot in the
rotation that is like, man, how do we like work
around this guy? There's always going to be value adds
just up and down this roster. There, They're stupid good. There,
They're the best team in the regular season to my eye.
So I'm with you at least there, even if our
win totals are different.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't even how would they finish under failure?
Is it just that the because it's only injury, it's
only injury because it's not going to be the defense
they have a chance to be like probably one of
the best defenses of all time.
Speaker 1: Agree, Yeah, I mean that, Yeah, it really that would
be the So you think they'll finish higher on defense
and offense, I think that's a pretty clear.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think honestly the only team that which teams
could theoretically have a better defense than them, I would
say Minnesota and Orlando for sure, and maybe Boston, Like
is are you prepared to throw any like those are?
And obviously I mean, okaysee finished fourth behind those three
teams last year.
Speaker 1: So but no, they added Hart and Signing and oh
my god, I can't believe we got this far into it.
So Hart and sign and Cruso were second and fifth
in defensive estimated plus minus in the league last year,
So they added two top five guys by that metric.
It's not the be all end all, but it's persuasive
and like, yeah, the tape ain't lion at least as
far as Caruso, Like that guy is hell out there
if you're an offensive player. So yeah, four Flipper on
defense is like the floor. They can't be worse than fourth.
Speaker 2: And by the way, this doesn't apply to defense. They
can like if they need if it courrs like, oh,
we do need some extra shock creation, juice or more shooting.
Let's say might be the they could go trade for it.
Speaker 1: God, the picks are still maybe hey, maybe they trade
that twenty five first back to the Clippers and just
have Kawhi and they send salary filler like maybe what, I'm.
Speaker 2: Sorry, would you what would he if Joe Williams, chet
Holmer and Shakes I was in or all healthy, I
wouldn't even think about making it if it was just
that pick or like even one of the Clippers picks.
And then salary to Matt any salary by the way,
it's just when you're the problem with the thunder, making
that trade is just like there's no salary that they
send out that isn't valuable, right, So here's go ahead.
Speaker 1: Sorry, I was just gonna say, like, we're both saying
they're gonna win more games than anyone in the league
this year. We're both saying that, and they have the
easiest path if they want to of making themselves better
right now than anyone else in the league with is
that as an over Is that an overstatement?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 1: So, like, what are we talking about fifty six and
a half? Like that's insane?
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, what are you talking about with fifty nine?
The map? I just the map. You're like two and
a half wins away from the over under. We're I'm
up here.
Speaker 1: Could I say, what if I took where are my
wins coming from? Who can I just knock the Hawks
down to like twelve and give twenty four more to
the Thunder?
Speaker 2: Honestly, the team I was thinking about this, if I
had to pull a bunch of wins more from one team,
I still feel like it would be Charlotte to where
it's just like, maybe you can get yourselfing to Toronto, but
Charlotte is just like they have the injury risk and
they might just not want to be good. So it's
like there's very few teams that have both of those factors.
Speaker 1: And we've both got the Warriors and the and the
Lakers in like the mid to low forties. You could
pull five apiece from either of those, no problem, and
then I could have fifty. Then I have sixty nine
in sead of fifty nine for the thunder and feel like,
you know.
Speaker 2: What, I'll go to seventy four. Uh this this next
team will be whoops, there's a spoiler alert on that.
A little bit more controversial with your I no magic, Oh,
mister hughes forty seven and a half. They won forty
seven last year. This is the classic hedge of just like, oh,
this team is going to be better than last year,
but how much better? Where are you that with them?
Speaker 1: So I this is a hard one. So I think
the defense is just a lock. I think the defense
will be great. I think Franz Wagner has to shoot
better than he did last season. He's just get over
thirty percent. I guess would be would be cool. I
think it's possible they get something from Anthony Black and
or Jet Howard, and then obviously KCP gives them another
like viable starting caliber wing. I'm still gone under and
I don't feel great about it. I got him at
forty six, and it's just like it's a numbers game,
and it's the progress Isn't linear thing, specifically with respect
to like I Jalen Suggs, I don't think is gonna
shoot it quite as well. And they still just don't
have the thing that they needed most in terms of
like I mean, the thing you need most is like
a bankable like future star, which I think Paalo is,
but like for them specifically, the organizer, the shock creator,
the backcourt like floor general type. Don't have that guy.
So I'm going under while acknowledging that like objectively, the
Magic might just be a better and more dangerous team,
I just don't think they're gonna win quite as many games.
Speaker 2: It is the classic progress Isn't Linear situation, and I've
probably been more prepared to go over have they done
more or if I had faith that they were going
to do more to kind of juice their offense, because
as of right now, aside from Fronzvagen and we're shooting better.
I know a lot of people have kind of painted
this as well. They think that Anthony Black can continue
to develop on the ball. How is how many minutes
of anti black getting on this team. Yeah, we look
at who they have available on the perimeter. I honestly
think they're set up right now. Is a vote of
confidence first and foremost, and Paul ben Caro fair and
then Jalen Suggs a little bit more devisive there. I
don't know if Jalen Suggs I did mention this on
our Hot takee pod that I feel like I could
see it maybe becomes more of this method audicle playmaker
in the half court. I can't guarantee it. And this
is all to say, winning forty seven games is like,
that's a lot of games to win, and I think
their offense should be better than like, Oh, I'm just
gonna go ahead and pencil in the magic for another
bottom ten finish basically, even though where did they end
up last year? They were I think they were bottom
ten in.
Speaker 1: Twenty second, yeah, twenty second.
Speaker 2: Yeah. So I just don't know that they've done enough
to address it. If you told me that, even if
you told me they traded for Anthony Simons or Malcolm Brogden,
I might be prepared to go over. But also then
integrating players mid season, who's going out. That gets a
little complicated. As of right now, I think that they
are a better team. I don't know that that translates much,
if at all, to their regular season wins total.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would also add that like a lot of
units that they had that involved Jonathan Isaac just destroyed
opponents and he's been a health risk for like his
whole career. So I don't any like, you know, fifteen
minutes a game or whatever it was, but like you
might price in a a little less availability for him
than that could kind of knock some of that defensive
dominance down a little.
Speaker 2: And even looked and the recently extended Wendell Carter Jr.
Like he's battlet health issues too, so how how available
he'll be? And he kind of struggled with his stop
and start availability last year. Next up, mister Hughes, the
Philadelphia seventy six ers. This team seems like it was
unnecessarily difficult for me fifty two and a half though,
where did you land?
Speaker 1: So it's hard to discuss them without just acknowledging the
talent levels just higher than it was last year, right
like you had, Paul George, you make a bunch of like,
you know, you get to Caleb Martin in there Andre
Drummond is is he the best backup that and Beads had,
I guess, unless you count like Horford who was sort
of there to play with him, which already.
Speaker 2: Had Drummond at one point too.
Speaker 1: So I guess, well, but is this version of Drummond
better than that one? Somehow?
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: For me, so I go under. I have him at
fifty one, so it's a narrow under, and it's just
I need to see Joel Embiid like be awesome for
a full season and be healthy before I believe that
it's going to happen. I do think having George and
Maxi there sets your floor pretty high because you might
just have more talent than the opponents on nights win
MB doesn't play, if you know, assuming you're not playing
the best teams in the league. So you know, narrow
range to me, But I can't get the ceiling real
high just because of the uncertainty of Embiid.
Speaker 2: That's that's it for me. There's also the uncertainty of
Paul George here too, where average is like twenty, some
of the absence is a year as well, and I
think you can trust that they will make a trade
to kind of get themselves another like bigger winger forward
defender in there who's not Yabu Selli, or you know,
asking Paul George or Caleb Martin to do too much.
But that's like a February thing or late January thing.
Probably it's the embiid of it all to me. And
I think, look, even it feels like the messaging coming
out is that they're eyeing a championship and so we
just might see on a night to night basis, so
they can to manage his minutes, or more importantly, they're
gonna manage his appearances. And so if you're sitting here
telling me, all right, well, joellebie is gonna play in
fewer than sixty five games, how many wins are we
supposed to pencil them for, I guess the rebuke would
be they won forty seven when he played in basically
half the year last season, and they're better now at
the top, So I think that's a fair criticism. I
have them at fifty one also as a slight under,
and I think I don't want to say that that's
gonna be by design on their part. I just don't
think that when you look at who their most important
players are. I mean even going down to Kyle Lowry
at this point as well, when Keam of Martin's dealt
with a bunch of injury stuff. This is gonna be
a team maybe counterintuitive because they're coached by Nick Nurse
that they're going to prioritize self preservation for the postseason.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're right there with the Bucks, right, even more
so where it's just like we kind of know what
we are. We gotta prioritize the spring and not the winter.
Speaker 2: Who's more likely to clear there? Because we both have
the Bucks going I thought I would have the Bucks
going over, but we both had the Bucks and Sixers
going under. Who's more likely to clear there? We have
the Bucks at fifteen and a half and Philly at
fifty two and a half. Who's more likely to go over?
Speaker 1: I'd say the Sixers, I think the Bucks. Okay, Well,
it feels like this like we've set ourselves up and Nicy.
Speaker 2: Like one of these teams is gonna win way more
games than we're projecting them to.
Speaker 1: You think, right, I mean we're both acknowledging that, Like
it's kind of the if they want to, right, It's
like it's it's I think that the Sixers are like,
they're cool with forty nine wins if it means that
embiid stayed healthy the whole year you rested them twenty
plus times, like oh, you know all that stuff, They're
totally I think they're totally fine with the fourth seed
and and a healthy roster like that's they've gone the
other way too many times to follow that path again.
That takes us to Phoenix. The Suns, Dan have an
over under a forty seven and a half coming off
a forty nine win season. They got point guards this time?
Are you going over for that reason?
Speaker 2: This is am I rotically that this is obnoxiously low.
I have them been fifty four wins, so I went under,
and I interually had them in fifty five of the
sex and I ended up pulling away. There's definitely there.
There's two players that could get injured and really screw
them over, and Devin Booker and Kevin Duran. That feels
like more than some other teams might have. I just
Mike Budenholzer. Teams typically win a bunch of regular season games,
even if you expect there to be some defensive regression
off the twelve ranked defense in points lout per possession
last year. One why they're of coach by Butenholzer. Now,
who's not that much, if any, of a defensive downgrade
from Mike Budenholzer. But I just think we both have
issues with the you know, they don't have enough, No,
they have too many non wings, I would frame it.
But just the infusion of the offensive organization with Tyas
Jones should make the job of Devin Booker and Kevin
Durant specifically even Bradley Beal a lot easier. And so
when you look at what they were able to do
on the offensive end last year, again in the aggregate
has some different hot stretches and there are lineups that
are that were obviously in Fuego. Phoenix was ninth in
point score per possession last year. That feels more like
it'll be closer to fifth or fourth this year. So
I think that there we're talking about teams that could
party crash the contensus top four in the West. I
have them as a top four team in the Western
Conference right now. I don't feel great about it because
when you look at Dallas, when you look at depth,
maybe not Denver, but Dallas and Minnesota specifically, and I
have the thunder first. It's those are teams that have
more depth to their roster, whereas the Suns you get to,
all right, Royce O'Neill, fine, but then it's Josha Kogi
and are we playing bull ball a bunch? And like
who else are we throwing into there? Is Monte Morris
gonna have a bigger role, But just like they go,
I guess seven players deep that you can trust when
you're talking Grayson Allen and Royce O'Neil off the bench
with Tyas Jones, Booker, Beiale, Durant and Nurkic, that's not nothing.
I mean, that's more than maybe the Nuggets can say
for themselves at this point.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'm over. I got them at forty nine
and I'm I'm just pricing in the Durant age and
injury history. I'm never getting under a forty seven and
a half total with this much talent in Budenholzer just
because like, like that's really what it is to me
that he say what you want. Like also like he's
won a championship, so like you can't quite say everything
you want about Budenholzer, like, but he he gets regular
season results, like that is that will be his legacy,
don't you think? Like he just he maximizes on both ends,
like what the scheme should be to win that game
that night, and it just it's worked everywhere. So I
just can't. I can't say forty seven you took go under.
You have to say the Sons are going forty seven games,
Like that's another case where it's just it would just
be injury, Like that's how you get under.
Speaker 2: And he had because they won forty nine last year
Grant and added as starter, right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean yeah, it's it's and like look, durance,
someone that you might suspect will have an injury or
fall off. And Booker has not been the you know,
the healthiest guy in the world over his career. But man,
like I'm not up there with you in the fifties,
I could never deny that. They don't they have that upside,
like yeah, they could, they could win fifty eight, Like
why you know, the talent's there. That's just not just
to me. I'm kind of like hedging a little bit
with forty nine. Man, here we go. The Blazers have
an over under of twenty one and a half. We
recently said on a podcast that they could win the
West if they wanted to because they're so talented. They
only won twenty one. Did we say that? Maybe not
quite that much? They won twenty one a year ago?
What do you think? Over under?
Speaker 2: Push for screen on YouTube already it's what is the
I just I Shane Sharp already injured, Robert Williams the
third already injured. Okay, I get it if you think
they're going to trade a bunch of guys, but this
is just are are you? They won twenty one last
year and you're giving them an extra half win bump
if we somewhat Scoot Henderson not going to get any better?
I just and that was with hande Charp playing and
what was it thirty three games or something. If you
think that they're gonna pivot all the way into oh,
Jeremy Grant is traded, h Denny Avdia is maybe being
shut down at some point this season, Sure, but this
team stretches two NBA players or real prospects deep at
least at every single spot. And it's just like, oh,
I know the West is tough, and that you have
to pull the wins from somewhere, but like they won
twenty one last year and you can't. But why are
they gonna be worse? What is what is the reason
they're going to be worse that they decide to be worse.
Speaker 1: The argument you'd make is that they really skew towards
We're we're gonna play Scoot and Sharp when he's healthy
and maybe when he this is how they just play
Shade and Sharp even though he only has one good shoulder.
That would probably be how you get under. But they
if it's just like we're only playing the young guys.
We've traded all but like that's not gonna happen, you know,
on November first, they're not gonna just jet Us and
all the old Like you're gonna play Jeremy Grant and
Robert Williams or and DeAndre Ayton and like, I mean,
I don't know where you put the guys like Kamara
and they're like, I mean, he's a helpful player now,
but he's also young enough to be like a so Toulo,
I'm over. I'm at twenty five, you're at what are
you at twenty four? Like if they being a hyperbolic earlier,
but like if they wanted to, there's like thirty four
thirty five wins in this team, right, Like if depending
on what they want to do, putting them at twenty
four to twenty five, is that they acknowledge me that
they're going to actively decide not to win more games,
is how I feel.
Speaker 2: I think that's right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, So.
Speaker 2: To be this low, I just and is there anyone
that you could say, oh, they're injured, There's no way
this team gets to twenty two victories. There's literally no
one on the roster you could say that about right now.
That's no offense to Scoop, but like he was damaging
for a huge part of last year and we saw
him kind of turn the corner to close the season anyway.
Speaker 1: Right, And and that just means okay, so Simon's and
Denny Avdia and Jeremy Grant handle the ball more like okay,
Like that's that's not hurtful, Like that's helpful. So yeah,
I just I don't see I maybe this is just
probably they're guaranteed to win like twelve games now, because
it's like I don't understand how they win twenty one
or fewer games. I don't see it.
Speaker 2: I guess that you look at it and say, even
at full strength, you still consider them no better than
the fourteenth best team in the West, and that's their
pathway to winning twenty one games or a fewer.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true. They could be a better team and
just get their asses kicked because there's twelve. You know,
everybody else in the West is good.
Speaker 2: But I just if we're being honest or can we
be prepared to guarantee that the San Antonio Spurs are
going to be better than the Blazers?
Speaker 1: Can't guarantee it? Like right, I mean that we're both
predicting that, But it's like, it's not stunning if those
things flip, not at all.
Speaker 2: Oh, this next team is your team? Grant the Sacramento Kings.
Speaker 1: All right? There are numbers forty six and a half
added to Marta Rosen. We universally agree that is a
talent upgrade. What do they win last year? Forty six? So,
I mean, the Vegas doesn't think they're a lot better?
Speaker 2: What do you think I went over but I went
to forty seven. It's not like this was an easy
over for me because I want to respect that I think. Look,
Malik Monk missed time to close the year. I think
Kevin Hurder, whether they trade him or keep him, should
have a better season than he like. He's been struggling
basically since the twenty twenty three playoffs. It feels like,
So if he's healthy, Kean Murray's gonna continue to get better.
I think he's already a fantastic defender. So if you're
gonna say that they got better, I like for them
to win fewer games. You can't. I think you have
to go beyond. You have to have inherent doubts about
the DeRozan edition working, and you have to believe that
there's a chance it could be actively hurtful. It can't
just be all the West is better said, like you
added Demarta Rosen, who is close to alst I get
the thing of just like, oh, their biggest addition was
this thirty five year old player. There's maybe we're signing
too much value to it, but he's not gonna be,
all of a sudden, like the ninth best player on
the roster, even if he's your third best player, which frankly,
that's what you want. If the Kings had their Druthers.
They probably want him to be their fourth best player
by the end of the season, behind Keegan Murray. Do
mas Abonis people get mad when I call him dom
maas Sabonis? Isn't that what people call him? By the ways,
if you prefer to hear that? And dearon Fox got that.
So I don't know what this. I am concerned about
the team's defense, despite I know I called them out
all the time, but there's way too many Kings fans
that just think that the Martin Rosen is better than
some hards for them on defense. I think with Kean Allis,
Keegan Murray that you can get to some core lineups
and Devin Carter gets healthy that you can get to
some core lineups and d Aaron Fox even where the
defense is passable, I like what this sort of indicates
for their offense that I think there's gonna be a
return to last year the Kings were okay on offense.
I think now they have the tools to be great
and transcendent again on offense. And to me, I do
think there's a lower floor here than maybe a lot
of Kings fans would like to admit. But I'm just
looking at it like every one of their most important
players are basically iron Man at this point, and so
this just feels like I don't know if they have
the high upside. I guess if you told me everyone's
healthy and nothing goes wrong, I'd probably still keep them
under fifty one victories. But I don't think that they
have a very low floor either, which bodes super well
for them.
Speaker 1: I feel like this is one of the narrowest ranges.
It's like I don't see them being below forty three,
and I don't see fifty. So I ended up at
forty six, which is an under I mean, one fewer
win than you in the end. That feels right to
me because it sort of reflects ultimately what my questions
have been since they made the deroz In trade, which
is like, yes, more talent, but I just as you know,
I don't think you can be someone that ever thinks
about fit mattering and be sure that like this is
a better product overall, just because there are questions about
sharing the ball. There are definitely defensive questions, and I
don't think it's realistic to say I know that DeMar
Dureau's and at this age will be as good as
he was last year, because we're like at the point
where like maybe it's just gone. I don't know, I
don't know what percentage chance that is, but just having
them also be they won forty six, I'm picking them
for forty six. I think that just feels right with
sort of how I view what they've done over the offseason. So, yeah,
like I got them, I got them one win above
the Warriors, So I guess you can't call me a
total homer and King's hater for that reason.
Speaker 2: The other thing, when it comes to the defense, I
think one of the biggest rebuttals would be they were
top five or top seven when Keilon Ellis was starting.
That was a quarter of the season, basically in the
latter quarter of the season when there's all sorts of noise,
yeah involved, And so could the Kings be competent defensively
over the course of an entire season, Sure, But we
don't just get to like, we don't just get to
isolate these stretches when it's most convenient for our narratives
unless you're you and I, because the points were making
that are one hundred percent accurate and salient and that
we're gonna do. I just there's I said that there's
they don't have a very low floor, but I could
see his team being one where it's not because of injuries,
but because the Fits are so much less clean or
squeaky clean than they were, thinking that they need to
reorient the roster kind of mid season and that hurts them.
I'm still going over I think I do. I think
that if they're not gonna make any changes, even if
it's not perfect, their floor still is pretty high. But
it probably could be where you said it feels like
it might be forty three wins. There's probably a chance
to me that it's it's even lower than that, but
still that might be like forty one or something.
Speaker 1: Who do you think they cannot lose? Like talking about
like is.
Speaker 2: The I really think it would be a disaster for
them if d Aaron Fox miss his time and we
even saw it last year the offense struggled when he Yeah,
I think it's spray and angle or whatever it was.
Speaker 1: I think I agree, and I think he's just their
best player. But like you have Malik Monk and Demarta Rozen,
like if we're gonna make I'm just I'm Devil's advocating
because I do think he's the guy they can't lose,
and I do think that their sort of skill set
balance is wonky. But like Monk and DeRozan are both
guys that just create offense, so you would think like, oh, yeah,
well we could lose the But then I don't know
what the answer is because it can't be Maybe it's Sabonis,
I guess, because then you're just playing Alex lenn or
Trey Lyles or you know I. But like then you
might be able to space. I don't know. There, it's
a hard question. Usually when we have a hard time
answering it, it means like those team's like gonna be
really good because they can sort of withstand an injury
to the guy we think is their best player. It
probably is Fox though he's just like he's just kind
of to me, like a level above everyone else they have.
Speaking of a level above height wise?
Speaker 2: What a transfer wise? That's a podcast, bro right there.
Speaker 1: The San Antonio Spurs, led by some French guy, have
an over under of thirty five and a half. Why
isn't this uh seventy five and a half?
Speaker 2: Dan, I honestly don't know. I went over I have
them for seventy seven wins. I have them under and
it kind of kills me. We all know the number
when Devin Vessel and Wemby and Trey Jones played together.
And now you get to throw Chris Paul in there
instead of Trey Jones, and you get forty eight or
forty plus minutes of competent point guard play. Den Vessel's
already injured, and just the surrounding talent is still in
general not there yet, Like how much Harrison Barnes should
help them. But where's Jeremy Sowen's place on this team
right now? And so if you're gonna play him with
Chris Paul and then Wemby's gonna be like, you don't
have any real high volume three point shooters on this team.
So there's a chance that the offense still struggles. The
other thing here is that Chris Paul is thirty nine.
We're just gonna trust he's gonna come in and be transformative.
That's not so Wemby is great through him. As you say,
all things are possible. I understand why it's this high.
There's a chance they might be so good defensively that okay, yeah,
they clearly it's not outside the realm of possibility that
they're just in the play and mix. I just have
a tough time reconciling they're still They've made it clear
that they're still in the build phase of the rebuild,
and it's not like they're ready to progress much further.
I don't see them even if they're slightly better than expected.
Are they gonna make a trade that helps them win games. No,
They're probably gonna continue to be like, well, we have
to see what we have in Jeremy soh In and
are we I'm assuming they're gonna spend heavy minutes, heavy
reps developing Stephan Castle at the you know, the the
NBA club level, and so that's another guy who might
potentially shrink your spacing in the half court. It's this
team should be better. They won twenty two last year,
so I have them at thirty five wins. That's a
thirteen win improvement. And if you're saying the players they've
added are thirty nine year old Chris Paul Harrison Barnes
and a rookie and Stephan Castle is their primary additions,
I think that's still adequately enough accounts for oh Wemby's
just ridiculous.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd like I feel like a fraud because I'm
also under here at thirty five, So we've got matching
cowardly narrow unders here. It's just like, okay, so Wemby
makes a leap, right, we're adding third team wins to
their total from last year, and so, like I do think,
I do think if he is who we think he is,
then we probably should acknowledge that, like forty five wins
as possible, right, Like, it's just that could happen if
he does, like you know, if he hits the high
end of our typically outlandish projections. But like thirty is
also in play because of the things you mentioned, like
they're gonna give minutes to young guys. I don't think
you can count on Chris Paul to play a full season.
Like there is sorry, but like there is actually some
downside from this over under. I think we should probably
like respect a little bit. But I mean we're adding
we're adding a ton to their total, so I don't
feel too bad about it. But I'm with you in
the under.
Speaker 2: The thing I go back and forth on is that,
so like, if we believe that he's generational in the
vein of Lebron James and Luka Doncic, And like Luka
Doncic's team as a sophomore, the Mavericks ends up finishing
It was nonine games over five hundred in his second season,
and then then you're Lebron who. I think this is
a more accurate view of where Wemby is because Christops
per Thingas did play in a majority of Dallas's games
in twenty nineteenty twenty. The second best player on that
Lebron James team in Cleveland as a sophomore was I
guess Elgauskis, if not Drew Gooden or Jeff McGinnis. And
so the second best player on San Antonio, I would
say is Devin Vessel if he's healthy. That Lebron James
team in the East won forty two games. Yeah, And
so the fact that Wemby, I would say, doesn't have
a traditional co star someone who I guess I would put.
I'm very high on Vselles, so I'd put him on
the same level as Chris Tops. But just like, okay,
now you get into the third best player of it all.
Let's use the Mavericks as an analog. They were actually
eleven games over five hundred when Luca was a sophomore
in a shortened season. No less, like you don't have
enough of the Dorian Finney Smith's or the Tim Hardaway
junior shooting forty percent from three on an absurd amount
of volume. That was one of Maxi Kleeba's best and
most available seasons, by the way, So I just it's yeah,
it's really tough for me. I want to put them higher.
And if he is as good as we think he's,
he have forty five not outside their own possibility. But
Lebron James won forty two games in the East as
a sophomore. How much? How many are you in a
pencil in Wenby for with this version of the Spurs
in this iteration of the West.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's the way to look at it.
It's like he can still make a leap and land
right where we got it, right, Like, it doesn't It's
not like us saying thirty five wins means he's gonna
be about the same, Like, no, he's gonna be way better.
I think that's the expectation.
Speaker 2: But so he's way better and they win thirty sure, right?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Absolutely?
Speaker 1: I mean freaking Vesell can Devin Vessel make it through
a season? Please? Can we like, can we see the
full year from this guy?
Speaker 2: He's really my whole Chris, like like my Chris Middleton
arc for him, Like he's really trying to stick to it,
but like get there. Like Chris Middleton was more durable
early on. Maybe he's getting the injuries out. He's doing
it backwards, got it wrong. Our next team is the
Toronto Raptors twenty nine and a half. I was gonna
have them way over until Yaka Peartle said, uh, they
don't give a shit about winning basketball games, and it
made people mad. No, he didn't say that. He said
they're not good. They're not attacking the championship, which is
just I appreciated it. I still have them over, which
I feel like I could probably you could talk me
into them being under. I have them at thirty three wins,
mostly because I believe in their top end talent. And
one of those top towns with best really isn't Yaka Peartle,
It's Scotty Barnes and Manual Quickly. I like what RJ
has done with them, and I really do like Grady
Dick too, Like I think he showed a lot, and
then even in his preseason game, he's hitting a lot
of shots off the bounce. No manual quickly know Scotty Barnes,
He's he's making stuff happen off the bounce. After that, though,
I know Raptor fans were smitten with what Jamal shed
has done in again, very brief what are they game
into the preseason at this point, I've seen the defensive
sequences from him. This ship gets rough. Yes, after the
projected starting five who is and Bruce Brown is injured?
And I mean, I know there's there's a manual quickly
r J. Barrett, Scottie Barnes, yaka peerl. I think is
very clearly your four best players. After that, I probably
think Grady Dick will be their fifth best player.
Speaker 1: But like, and that's not a great place to be
because nobody's real sure about that either. Like I agree
with you, but like that illustrates your point. It's like
we're we're talking about a fifth starter and we're already
at like, oh.
Speaker 2: I don't know, And what's the answer that would make
you feel comfortable if I said it was Bruce Brown,
Hag Baji, Kelly, Olynok, none of those names are gonna
make you feel comfortable, and it just gets even worse
once you get beyond that. Bruce Brown's injured, it's all right,
Like Jacoby Walters banged up right now? Like what is
he gonna end up being for them? How much are
they gonna be invested in development? That made this It
made it harder to kind of figure out a win total.
I could see their floor being a lot lower because
they decide it needs to be a lot lot aware
if they're just not great. Wouldn't shock me if they
tried to trade RJ. Barrett et Manuel quickly. If the
only person that's untouchable on this team it's Scotty Barnes. Yeah,
so I went over at thirty three. I don't know
that I feel great about it.
Speaker 1: Though, No, I'm I'm I'm in Lockston got him over
at thirty two. I mean, like they won twenty five
last year. I just I can't if Barnes plays at
or above the level he did last year and quickly
is you know, okay, he's actually of like, you know,
fifteenth or better starting point guard in the league. Like
I don't know we know that at all yet. But
if he does that, then like we're getting to thirty.
I just I think twenty nine and a half is
pretty low. They could steer into it, but but even
that hypothetical does involve, like, are you really going to
trade quickly just after you extended him? I guess like
if that number is palatable for other teams, sure, but
I and even Pertle, like, you know, he's not their
their best player by any stretch, but like that's a
serviceable starting NBA center who's like actually helpful to you
on both ends. I think I think that sets the
floor above of thirty. So I don't love it, and
I acknowledge they could go the other way, but I
think the low thirties is pretty doable for them.
Speaker 2: I just I don't know what this team is going
to be on defense, too, because Pearl's rim protection has
slipped over the past couple of seasons, and just after him,
it's Kelly Olyn, Chris Bouche, get in there, right, Chris Brusche. Oh,
by the way, there you go. He's their sixth best player.
I can't more fifth best player. I can't believe we
didn't mention him. But yeah, this team is you could
talk me into this. Doesn't this feel like this has
We've talked a lot about sort of the finite, the
narrower outcomes. Doesn't this feel like this has a wider
range of outcomes? Where if I told you they won
thirty eight, thirty nine when it really or even five hundred,
would that shock you?
Speaker 1: How do they get there? Because I've been trying to think.
Speaker 2: That they're healthy. Their top five is killing it. You
get progression from Grady Dick, maybe Jamal shadd or Jacobe
Walter can contribute right away. I mean when you look
at if everyone's healthy, I'm just let's spell out what
an NBA level rotation would be in no particular order.
You Iq Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Yaka Peertle, Grady Dick, Bruce Brown,
Kelly Olynik, Chris Bruschet. That's eight like NBA players, and
so if you hit on one of the wings, are
perimeter players where it's oh, can shed Average are planning minutes?
Or can Walter does a Baji maybe come along? I
don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't think they can be above five hundred, but
I do see the high thirties get like that. Yeah,
I mean I got them at thirty two. You're at
thirty three, Like, yeah, they could just have good clutch
luck and maybe get you know, up to the thirty
seven thirty eight range. So I could see that, but
I don't see. I don't see like the forty two
forty three. But yeah, a good point.
Speaker 2: Take the train. They have all these guys and they're
like second and third contracts already. They mentioned said, hey,
that's true.
Speaker 1: It's not like they're cheap. They're not like a stripped down, cheap,
you know, young team. It's like Barnes and quickly got there.
They're paid like, they're not a you know, they're expensive
to some extent. That takes us to the Utah Jazz
dan over under twenty eight and a half. This is
a steer into the skid too late team habitually the
last two years. That is a well, they're just a
weird team to evaluate because you don't really know what
they're gonna do trade wise. So where are you on
that twenty eight and a half.
Speaker 2: I'm going under, and I went comfortably under because I
don't think they're gonna let what's happened the past two
years happen again. I have them at twenty wins, which
would make them my worst team in the Western Conference.
I understand that they probably should have hired a worst
coach like to start off this rebuild, because Will Hardy's
probably too good. I just even if, like, let's just
look at their rotation right now, I get like Con Sexton,
Jordan Clark, and Larry Market and John Collins Walker Kessler
are probably their five best players. I don't know if
that's what they would actually start games with this year,
but like after that, I just how many minutes are
you gonna play like con Sext and Jordan Clarks and
John Collins specifically, you don't have a ton of long
term equity invested in them. You're trying to trade Walker
Kesler Apparently. This just feels like we're gonna have a
lot of games where it's, oh, did Johnny Juzang leave
the team in shot attempts or something. I think there's
gonna be a lot load management here. I think there's
eventually going to be trades. There's no way that all three,
all four of Walker Kessler, John Collins, Colin Sexonson, and
Jordan Carson finished the season on this team, And if
they do, I guarantee they don't. None of them finish
it in the in the rotation because they'll be shut down.
So I think the Jazz are going to get out
in front of this. I know you predicted that they
might make a win now, trade, so do you have
them winning like forty nine or fifty two.
Speaker 1: Games sixty one? No, so like they won thirty one
last year and me being under which I am at
twenty two is a statement that I'm not comfortable with
because they haven't done this effectively. Is that they're going
to do this on purpose. I like, I think finally,
like you know, that was my hot take, although make
a win now, I just I think the opportunities there.
I feel like they should. They should believe they have
missed like lottery tickets because of Wemby and because you know,
not so much this past season. But like, you can't
do it three times in a row. You can't be
you know, twelve and fourteen and then be like, oh
we got you know that you can't do it three
times in a row. So this will be a decision
on their part. And I do think the marketing security
like at least as far as like his perspective, it's
easier now because you can tell him like hey, man,
like you got your money. Uh, here's the plan.
Speaker 2: Like I presume.
Speaker 1: That that was discussed, like while they were negotiating that
extension of like this is probably what's going to look
like what are your thoughts? Do you want to be traded?
And it seems like the answer was no. You could
make the case that like what they told him was
we're going to try to win, and that's why he resigned.
I mean that's just as plausible. But I just it's
like we throw around franchise malpractice all the time. You
can't you can't half assed tank three years in a row.
You just you can't do it. I think this has
to be the one where they really do it on purpose.
Speaker 2: And I also what is their ceiling if they are
going forward? I know they're well coached, but like part
of the mid season reshufflings has been there is less talent,
like bankable talent on his roster. And unless you think
that Kyante George and Taylor Hendricks are going to really
make leaps this year, which possible and then that Cody
Williams is gonna be good right out of the gate,
is they're seiling much higher than like how many they
won last thirty one? Thirty two games.
Speaker 1: No, I think like absolute ceiling everything breaks, right, they
don't give Cody Williams and you know, Keanta George and
Taylor hendrixs a ton of minutes. They actually play these
older guys like thirty seven like it's just every break
goes their way. But like the flip side of that
is they have real cover from like a fan standpoint
of like we're hey, you want to see George play
with like I don't know, Isaiah Collier and Williams and
Kessler and Hendrix like bang, we'll throw them out there.
That those guys as a starting unit are gonna get
smoked by like fifteen points per hundred. But like the
fans will dig it. You know you can sell that now,
So you can you can. I don't know what you
do with Mark and I guess you just like bubble
wrap him for a year. But you can definitely like
get away with it if you're Utah, because you do
have players young players that will not help you win
that fans want to see.
Speaker 2: What's more likely if the Jays are once again an
over over five hundred midway at the midway point of
the season, which is the past two years they've had
a record above five hundred at different points more than
halfway through. Is will Hardy and the coach of the
year discussion or just getting fired at that point?
Speaker 1: I mean both. You can definitely get fired. Ask Dwayne Casey.
You can get fired after the year, Yeah, that like.
Speaker 2: That's hard the year after getting fired though, they fired
in fifty games in and it's I don't know, man,
they were forty nine. They were forty nine and one
at that point, like, and then.
Speaker 1: They didn't win the rest of the year because the
next guy, the interim coaches, like, I can fix this
for you.
Speaker 2: Uh, whoa, we went back to the start of this thing.
But that's not what we're here for. Our final team
as always in the alphabet, at least that's what rumor
has it is the Washington Wizards, which you know they're
over underground, is not too high. It's a twenty eight
point five. Where did you end up with them?
Speaker 1: I can't remember because I don't see him. I gotta
go all the way up to the east. Oh okay,
So I this is a team that can be like
deliberately just awful. If they really want to write like
they they have the ability to put lineups on the
floor that have no chance, like defensively in particular. And
I think everything they've done, like if you trade Danny
Avdia on that contract for a pick and an even
younger player, like, I think the signal's pretty clear about
what the objective is here. So twenty and a half,
like I'm not I guess that presumes you never trade
Malcolm Brogden and Kyle Kuzma and like anybody else that
could be an averager better NBA player on this roster.
I don't see that as likely given what they did
with Avdia. So I got them at fifteen wins just yeah,
he said, question mark, Yeah, fifteen. I had them a
little higher just because at the extremes, like I didn't
go into the mid to low teens until I had to.
But like, find me a team that has is gonna
start the season like at a bigger disadvantage from a
talent and experience standpoint than this one. Like this this
is it's not a revelation. This is the team everyone
expects to be the worst in the league.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I have them under as well. I said that,
I went to thirteen. I don't think you're giving Will
Dawkins and Michael Winger enough credit. My whole thing is,
is there another team where like, what's the other team
where you say, well, even if they make no moves,
there's still gonna be way under this total. Because I
think a lot of people say, yeah, they'll probably trade
Kyle Kuzman and Jonas found Chewas and Malcolm Brogden. We
probably thought the same thing last year about Kyle Kuzman
and Tyas Jones. Both of them finished the season, and
I know they did go on and move Daniel Gafford.
I get it, But just like they're playing Alex Sard
to begin the year, teams like at the four, I
don't like, what is that gonna do? This feels like
they should be the worst team, like the worst defensive
team and in league history, as built as currently built.
And so I'm the reason I went to low is.
I actually do think that they will trade some of
the veterans and like ensure that Brian Keith doesn't have
the you know, those clubs in his bag later on
in the year. But even if they don't, sixteen, but
I just like what this team's ceiling doesn't even feel
like everyone's healthy, No one gets traded. This team's ceiling
doesn't even feel like it's twenty.
Speaker 1: One, right because you'd say, like, well, the defense, I
think the defense is like if they're not the worst
defense in the league, I want to know who is.
But like, okay, offensively, all right, Jordan Poole gets better
and like Kolabali takes a step and Kuzma's there all year,
Valentunis gives you a post up option. Like even with
all that, it's like, okay, so they're the twenty fifth
best offense, Like I just you know that, which is
what they were last year, twenty ninth on defense. Good job,
good job Jazz being thirtieth somehow inexplicably, Yeah, I mean
the ceiling is what like it the ceiling might be
the over under, like the ceiling might be twenty. I
just like, I don't know how you do better than
now with this roster and with the directive front clearly
from the top of like not trying to win, we're
gonna like so how about this, Which of Sar Carrington
and Kola Bali will rank outside the top five in
minutes played on the team this year?
Speaker 2: Probably Sar I feel like he'll be in a crap tout.
Speaker 1: Of trouble, right, Okay, great, so he'll he'll actually hurt
the team a bunch and then be out. So he'll
get in a short burst, get the other get the
opponent over the limit, and sit. We're gonna play these
guys and they're gonna just do damage, like from the jump.
Speaker 2: And I know that we're kind of trolling to me.
The Wizards are doing the right thing, like this is yeah,
I love with it. I want to make that clearer.
I'm gonna be mad if they hit the over. I
think that'd be bad for their future. Probably.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it says a.
Speaker 2: Lot that they could hit the over, and theoretically, I
know the Pistons won fourteen, all right, They're not gonna
hit the over and have the worst record in the league,
but like they could.
Speaker 1: Is there another team that wants fewer wins than Washington
like that has acted, you know what I mean? Like,
I don't.
Speaker 2: I think I think the Jazz could talk themselves into
needing to be that team.
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, yeah, but they're not positioned to do it,
and they got to do way more work to get
that bad.
Speaker 2: If we're being honest, there is probably a team that
should want it just as badly Chicago.
Speaker 1: Well what Chicago, what Chicago wants, and what's good for
it have often diverged.
Speaker 2: Here's a good place to wrap on on the Wizards
before just going to a quick recap. What's more likely
the Wizards win, the Wizards do not finish with a
bottom three record, or the Clippers finish with the worst
record the bottom two record. What's more likely Clippers or
the Wizards finishing outside the bottom four? Oh?
Speaker 1: So, like the Wizards are not one of the three
worst teams?
Speaker 2: Correct?
Speaker 1: I just I don't I don't know how that happens.
I think the Wizards just have to be so I
guess the answer. My answer has to be the Clippers,
because I just can't fathom how the Wizards are not
one of the three worst records.
Speaker 2: I think it would just be like shit goes sideways
in Detroit and Charlotte and Chicago, right, I think they're
all just that's like the i'd probably take. I'd take
the the one that I would take that the Wizards
finish like fourth or fifth with the fourth or fifth
birth worst record. But the point stands that this is
the team that I think is most and by the way,
that counts as a direction, and so it's not one
of these teams that are going to try and pivot
into a separate direction in the middle of the year.
So I favor good, good job Wizards. We should recap
here a little bit. As of right now, I've Boston
finishing first in the East, the Knicks at two with
fifty three wins, the Cavaliers at three with fifty two,
Affiliate four with fifty one, the Bucks at five with fifty,
the Pacers at six with forty eight, the Magic at
seventh with forty, the Heat in eighth with forty sixth,
and then the Hawks are ninth at thirty six, the
Raptors are in tenth at thirty three, and then my
bottom five teams in order are Charlotte at eleventh, Detroit
at twelfth, Chicago at thirteenth, Brooklyn at fourteenth, and the
Wizards at fifteenth. By the way, we didn't mention the Nets,
but they're probably the team that should actually want to
be worse, even more than the Wizards.
Speaker 1: We didn't even well at least equally. I don't know
if you can want more, all right, spot me if
I screw this up, because I just sorted Z to
a here. So my East standings go Boston with fifty
six wins, that's your number one seed. Cleveland is two
at fifty three. The Knicks are third at fifty two wins,
followed by the Sixers at fifty one. So there's your
top four. Got the Bucks as the fifth seed forty
nine wins, the Pacers checking at forty seven. The Magic
are your sixth seed if I've counted correctly, maybe seventh,
can't remember, now forty six wins, followed by the Heat
at forty five. Then all the way down that's wow,
that's a huge drop from me.
Speaker 2: I didn't even realize my So we both have.
Speaker 1: The Heat at eight right, yeah, and then all the
way down to Atlanta at thirty win fewer.
Speaker 2: Is that what you have?
Speaker 1: Yes, thirty six for Atlanta. There, then we go to
the Raptors thirty two pistons, twenty nine bulls, twenty six nets,
seventeen wizards fifteen A couple big chasms there from like
your play your playoff to your play into your uh,
just absolute dregs down there in the West. Okay, see,
is my number one seed at fifty nine wins, followed
by the Wolves, that's number two at fifty four. My
third seed is the Nuggets at fifty two. Man, these
are so like densely bunch, there's no way it actually
shakes out like this. The MAVs are the fourth seed
for me at fifty one, followed by the Suns. That's
your fifth seed at forty nine. The Grizzlies are six
that forty seven wins. The Pelicans are seventh at forty seven.
The Kings are your eight seed at forty six. Oh,
I got the Pelicans and Kings at forty six. Tie
breakers gonna come in there for that playing round. The
Warriors are next in the West at forty five, the
Rockets forty three, Lakers I guess I have out of
the plan in at forty two. Tough tough break spurs,
big drop there down to thirty five wins, the Clippers
at thirty and then I've got Portland twenty five, Utah
twenty two bringing up the rear in the West.
Speaker 2: I still can't believe you only had the Thunder under
sixty wins.
Speaker 1: That just feels egregious.
Speaker 2: So my West, this is actually the drop off at
the top. OKC at sixty five wins down to Phoenix
at number two at fifty four. So I have the Thundering,
not only I the thunder being eleven games better than
second place in the West and eight games better than
anybody else in the league. Apparently not gonna fight you.
The Wolves at three with fifty three, the MAVs at
four with fifty three, whatever tiebreaker there, Denver fifth at
fifty two. It feels weird having Denver in fifth. I'm
not gonna lie. The Pels at sixth with forty eight,
the Kings at seven with forty seven, the Grizzlies at
eight with forty four, the Lakers at nine, the Lakers
in rockets ninth and tenth at forty three wins apiece,
but the Warriors that are eleventh with forty three wins apiece.
The Spurs are twelfth with thirty five. I've the Clippers
thirteenth at thirty one, the Blazers fourteenth to twenty four,
and the Jazz dead last with twenty. That little gaggle
right there where. I have Memphis, Los Angeles, Houston, and
Golden State, and we're talking about seeds eight through eleven.
The forty four to forty three. If it's that close,
that would make the planan Ray super fun in the
Western Conference this year.
Speaker 1: I think that's gonna happen. The kind of the just
glut in that middle of the West is unavoidable.
Speaker 2: One of my bigger takeaways would be or my bigger
question is just before we wrap up, So do we
think that one of the Lakers or the Warriors is
gonna end up missing the plane? We each had one
of them out.
Speaker 1: So the only way that doesn't happen, yes, is the
answer is like the Spurs make that leap or the
Clippers hang Well, if the Clippers hang in and maybe
they both miss it, but I don't think we view
that as likely, right, So is it just the Spurs
or the Rockets, like one of them gets in, Because Memphis,
we think is definitely gonna bump somebody. I think that's
just you just run out of room. Unless you think
maybe the Pelicans slip out. I don't know. Yeah, that's
where we're.
Speaker 2: Like forget about the order. But it feels like OKAC, Phoenix, Minnesota, Dallas, Denver,
New Orleans, Sacramento and Memphis give you like a very
clear cut top eight and then it's okay. So that
leaves two spots for the play in, and I would
assume the primary contenders are gonna be I mean, you
could throw the Clippers in there, but Clippers, Spurs, Warriors, Rockets, Lakers,
so like for even like there's it's not outside the
rom pups with that both of them end up the plane.
Speaker 1: If Rockets and Spurs get in, then that's it.
Speaker 2: Clippers maybe like Kawhi Leonards just all of a sudden
healthy and last the year. And we're wrong there, but
fascinating exercise. We're gonna be so wrong. Don't forget before
you take us out of here to join our discords
that could be part of the over under competition that
we will be will be running.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's easy pick and sue. We're very beatable if
history is any guide for this exercise, So please get
in there, get your get your over unders, your wind
totals in there so we can compare notes at the
end of the year and we can both Dan and
I can share in the shame, I guess, but also
the joy of having so many people participate in this exercise.
Thanks everybody for listening, for watching as always, as Dan said,
joined the discord for reasons to participate in this exercise
and others. If you have not done so already, rate, review, subscribe,
comments on YouTube. Check out the shorts that Dan so
meticulously curates fashions. It's it's art. It's art. If you
have never seen art, that's what it looks like. Tell
your friends, Tell your enemies. Close as usual, shouts Frank, apologies,
Jared