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Speaker 1: What is up, Fellowsikos.

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Speaker 2: I am dan Fa Valley, joined as always by my

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certified Pantabulus co host, mister Grant Hughes. It's time to

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get to twenty twenty four twenty twenty five NBA record

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projections slash over unders. We're gonna go through the over

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unders of each teams our picks. We'll talk about how

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many wins we have them penciled in for. I will

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throw up a graphic at the end where you can

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see where Grant and I landed in terms of the

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standings for each conference, so stay tuned for that. But

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this is fun because we don't have any baseline criteria

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to go through, so I get to go right to

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the question everyone wants to know the answer to Grant Hall,

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the heck are you doing?

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Speaker 1: I'm doing very well. I am happy. I'm excited to

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discuss the process by which we arrive that's such incredibly

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similar wind totals. So we did not discuss this beforehand.

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I didn't you did yours first. I didn't look at yours,

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and as the listeners and viewers will see, we have

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some deviation. So that's good. But I can't wait to

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talk about like how this particular brand of sausage got

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made and it's so ridiculously similar.

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Speaker 2: Right, and so there it was because I was going

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through it to make the graphics after you did it.

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So like there's some definitely differentiation when it comes to

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the actual wins when we went to specific records, because

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if those were spot on, we'd have some that'd be bizarre.

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Speaker 1: Even those are close, though I thought some of them

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were pretty close.

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Speaker 2: But I will say that the over unders were going

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down or up together, like because we show and locked

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up with those. Like if one of us has a

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bad run at these this year, and I was horrid

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last year, I was like one of the worst in

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our competition with our discord members, I was like.

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Speaker 1: Did you beat me?

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Speaker 2: Though?

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Speaker 1: No, oh okay, I remember doing really poorly too.

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Speaker 2: I'd beat two people and one of them were not you.

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That's a good time to plug. We will be running

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it again, so we will have and the winner will

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get something. I have to talk to Grant about what.

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But we're gonna have our over under competition. You'll be

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locked into the same win totals like Grant and I

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are using today. So go join our discord if you

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have not already the links in the podcast and YouTube

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description because I'll be firing that up probably within the

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next couple of days. But yeah, I'm excited. I'm excited

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to explain how we rationalize this. But uh, I don't

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know that we're again, I don't know how many arguments

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there are going to be there.

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Speaker 1: Just because well before we go to the first team.

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So here's what I think happened. And you tell me

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if you had a similar experience, Like so I definitely

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over index on wins because I just went down each

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team as like what do I think it's record is

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going to be? And I looked at like how they

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do last year? What was the point differential last year?

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What's changed? Just like the basics, like where are we

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going up? Were we going down to what extent? And

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then I get done and I'm like plus sixty something

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in wins, And so I got to start peeling wins

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off of someplace. And I think what I did was

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just like you know two here too, there too, here

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too there, And it made the records that I projected

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like really condensed toward the middle. Like I wasn't pulling

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that much from the really high win teams or the

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low win teams. It's just like I feel like I

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have a million teams between forty nine and forty four

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wins because I just kept like, well, that's a thinking

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like it's gonna just regress towards the middle from both ends,

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and that's I think, And that's how I ended up

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so close to you. Is that was that your process too?

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Is that how you like? Cause I'm we did say

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that you were over in wins too and then had

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to adjust down.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was not over by sixty. I think my

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first run through was and I've done the over unders

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with our look ahead guess, so like I wasn't looking

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at them while I did them, but in my mind,

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I'm sure I subconsciously had them while I was going through.

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What I ended up having to do was though I

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think I don't and these will be the fan bases

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that get the angriest, which I think is fine. I'm

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not actively trying to piss anyone off by doing this.

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I end up having to pull wins from if I

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had a team that ended up with thirty seven, I

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need a good argument as to why, because look at

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the draft that's coming up, Look at how competitive the

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top of these conferences are and like, those are the

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teams I started playing wins from because some of them

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are just like, well they are sort of like, let's

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use this is not a team I actually took a

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bunch of wins from. But like Portland, it's just like

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if you're gonna pencil them in for thirty five wins,

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it doesn't make sense, like they have the talent we

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talk about, like Portland was weirdly stacked, but there was

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no incentive for them to I know, they don't necessarily

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need more picks, but like just winning thirty five games

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and that doesn't even get you to the playing in

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the Western Conference. Like, those were the teams that I

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was like, you know what if they're around this territory

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by the trade deadline, like this is their pace. These

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are the teams that are gonna shut people down, they're

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going to trade people. And so that's when that's where

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I started pulling wins from. Yeah, I will say the

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hardest thing for me to do was one the two

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things that were the hardest thing was the new additions,

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especially when it came to the Nixon Timberwolves, which are

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two teams I'm very high on. It's well, how long

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does this take to come together? Like the whole team,

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they were just slapped together, but it's it happened as

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training camps were beginning, so it's gonna take a little

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while for this to co lace. And then the even

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bigger one was just the West is a beast, Yeah,

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and it's I wasn't even comfortable taking wins from like

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the Jazz or the Blazers is where we're at, but

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like independent of them, it starts with the Spurs, the Rockets,

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the Grizzlies, the like. There's just so many could be

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good teams in the West, and it makes me wonder

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who is gonna be the team in the West that's

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like we're just gonna have missed on because they decided, like, no,

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we're pulling the ripcord on here. We don't want to

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be forty three wins right.

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Speaker 1: Well, I mean, I don't know if they're pulling the ripcord,

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but there is definitely a Western Conference scene that we

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both went pretty low on. That was a fifty win

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team last year, I think, or close to it. But anyway,

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we should start. I think it's just interesting that I

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don't know, I think we both were too optimistic. I guess,

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which is maybe, like, hey, good for us initially, and

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then we really had to throttle back on a lot

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of these teams. So you want to start with the

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Atlanta Hawks.

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Speaker 2: Yes, let's do it by it, let's do it. Let's

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let's follow the alphabet again. A right, let's see how

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we do that. So the Hawks have an over under

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grant of thirty five and a half. Are you going

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over or under here? And why or if you want to

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go through your process first before you get to.

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Speaker 1: A Okay, yeah, I just I just spoiled it. Well,

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so initially I had them at like thirty nine, I think,

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just because I know Dejontay Murray's gone. But it's like

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Trey Young, maybe he's healthier if the Jalen Johnson leave happens,

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like there's another path towards more wins. They don't own

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their picks, like that's a huge factor. So unless you're

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trading Trey Young to San Antonio for those picks back

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like a tank, doesn't seem super likely. Although we have discussed, like,

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you know, if you can't get your own, at least

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get somebody else's. You're not like you you can't. It's

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not like you cannot trade Trey Young because you can't

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get those picks back, Like that's ill possible. But I

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had to. I had This was a team that I

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knocked like three wins off of, so I'm over but

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by the slimmest margin possible with thirty six wins. And

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it's just they're just not as good as the you know,

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the definite playoff teams in the East. And they're also

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just not They're in They're in the middle. This is

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this isn't in the middle team right now unless something

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you know, dramatic happens.

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Speaker 2: I also happened in thirty six winsh I actually had

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them higher at first. They were one of the teams

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that I had to pull stuff away from. And as

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you mentioned, this is not going to be a team

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that theoretically will have to sell off unless the Godfather

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offer for Trey Young comes into play. But at the

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same time, in the back of my head, I'm like,

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they're gonna be relying on a bunch of unfinished products

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or unproven guys Zacharysache for one, but also Dyson Daniels.

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I'm a sit they look it seems like they valued

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him pretty highly in the de Jonte Murray trade and

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so unless you kind of and are we going to

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see more of a transition to on Yikka Kungou as

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your primary big just Jalen Johnson get more responsibility And

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maybe there's just always the I mean, we view it

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through the lens of just well, what if they decide

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to trade Trey Young if they're not that good, Like,

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do they just try and recoup assets for Bogdanovich or

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can they get something for Yaka Kunglu or do Andre Hunter?

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I've even bandinged about this is just really not really

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it's anything. But if you were the Spurs, would you

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give back one or more of Atlanta's picks if you

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could get Jalen Johnson. Let's say he doesn't sign an extension.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, wouldn't you would? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah I would too. I just want to make

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sure I wasn't the only one because he kind of

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he's about to start his next deal and he's not

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like super great defensively, but it's to plug him next

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to Wemby in the front court. It makes so much

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more sense than doing so with a Keldon Johnson or

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a Jeremy Sewyn.

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Speaker 1: Would you agree that this is kind of unless unless

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the selloff happens. This team has a pretty high floor.

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Like it's you know, they're not gonna win if guys

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are healthy and they don't trade away a bunch of

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you know, the Trey Young or they don't trade Jalen

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Johnson or whatever, like, it's hard for them to be

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much worse than this. And I do think like maybe

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Trey Young's healthy and is much better, Johnson makes sleep.

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There's like there's like forty five forty six win upside here.

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I just I don't think it's like reasonable to make

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that the expectation, right.

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Speaker 2: I had them so when I first did it, I

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had them at forty three and it was just you

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can talk me into getting there. But as a prediction,

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I'm just looking, there's at least like seven other teams

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in the East that I think are going that are

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just substantially better than the Hawks. So maybe this turns out,

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Oh what Vic Crachi did last year was for real

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and it scales into a bigger role. Maybe Kobe Buffkins

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is able to log actual minutes this year and he's

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really good. I know that people talk a lot about well,

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like what are they gonna do with at center? But

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like they have Jaleen Johnson, Clincapela, Larry at junior on,

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Yuka kung Wu, one of the better just four man

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like four or five rotations in the league. So if

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Trey Young's healthy, I just the tough The final thing

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I'll say before we move on, just to square with, well,

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how big a role is Zachary Resische going to play?

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I know that he probably won't be central to the

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on ball offense, but if you're going to rely a

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ton on a rookie, that's just it gets you into

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iffy territory, like he might have to be their primary

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wing checker in the core lineups, and that is a

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rookie is a tough thing to do. Yeah, for sure,

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We're onto the Boston Celtics, which I don't know, and

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maybe I'll do the intro for the East teams and

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you can take the West ones. But they're over under

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is fifty seven and a half, which they won sixty

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four last year and made no material changes. So I'm

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curious as to how you gained this one out.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, a few factors. Again, yet another team I had

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to start peeling a couple wins off of because I

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had him higher Initially, I think Porzingis's absence is a factor,

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as is the related issue of when he is back.

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I do think he's like a second nine of a

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back to back, you know, planned rest guy. I think

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they might limit his minutes, and really I think that's

239
00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:44,440
an approach they might take with everybody, just because the

240
00:10:44,519 --> 00:10:47,759
run to the finals is long. You know, several guys

241
00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:50,000
were with Team USA, so they didn't get a huge

242
00:10:50,039 --> 00:10:53,759
summer break, like I think some real you know, careful

243
00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:57,399
management of the roster at the top end of it anyway,

244
00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:00,919
is like very likely and probably like be what they

245
00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:05,639
do that the championship hangover, like all those like additional

246
00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:08,200
like wishy washy factors I think are there, and when

247
00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:11,360
you're dealing with a team that won sixty four games,

248
00:11:11,399 --> 00:11:14,000
like you got to come down, Like I mean, I

249
00:11:14,039 --> 00:11:19,639
would assume, right, So I have them under I have

250
00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:24,120
them at fifty six wins and like that's still for me,

251
00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:26,399
the best in the East. Not to spoil the rest

252
00:11:26,399 --> 00:11:28,759
of it, but it's it's definitely like that's a law.

253
00:11:29,279 --> 00:11:32,879
A lot of come down from sixty four. And it's

254
00:11:32,919 --> 00:11:35,000
not an argument that Boston is like, oh they're worst.

255
00:11:35,039 --> 00:11:36,759
It's just I think that's just the way they're going

256
00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:37,720
to manage the season.

257
00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,720
Speaker 2: I'm with everything you said. The only thing I would

258
00:11:41,799 --> 00:11:43,399
add and so I went under as well, I have

259
00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:46,919
them at fifty seven wins, So I'm right there. It

260
00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:49,200
wouldn't shock me if they had another sixty something win

261
00:11:49,279 --> 00:11:52,720
season and it's the Porzingius injuries big and then I

262
00:11:52,759 --> 00:11:54,039
know you could say, well, look at how well they

263
00:11:54,039 --> 00:11:57,559
performed without him, including during the postseason last year. You

264
00:11:57,799 --> 00:12:01,159
now have to do that until what Anuary at least.

265
00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:03,799
And the other thing is Al Horford's getting older, and

266
00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:06,600
then it's all right, you can plug in Exavier Tillman

267
00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:10,159
and Luke Cornett and name me as Cada. But like,

268
00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:12,720
can you play two bigs anymore together? When you look

269
00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:14,320
at the current setup, like maybe, but are you gonna

270
00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:15,440
get away with it for as much?

271
00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:15,840
Speaker 1: Then?

272
00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:17,960
Speaker 2: What does that do? Does it put any other undue

273
00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:20,519
straight on your perimeter players? With all of that said,

274
00:12:20,919 --> 00:12:24,039
I'm very open to the idea that just like Jason

275
00:12:24,039 --> 00:12:26,679
Tatum was at the Olympics, didn't necessarily play the ton,

276
00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:28,480
is he gonna want to have sort of a revenge

277
00:12:28,519 --> 00:12:30,919
campaign for people who didn't think that he belonged in

278
00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:33,639
the MVP discussion, Jalen Brown does he kind of have

279
00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:36,159
a chip on his shoulder because he wasn't selected to

280
00:12:36,159 --> 00:12:38,639
go to Team USA. I understand that these are we

281
00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:42,480
can't necessarily quantify these things, but as I think it was,

282
00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:45,159
Jalen Brown even said this, the goal wasn't just to

283
00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:47,759
win one, and so it wouldn't shock me if let's

284
00:12:47,799 --> 00:12:49,519
just say they're not at full strength, maybe they are

285
00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:52,200
managing their minutes, and they're still just head and shoulders

286
00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:54,440
better than every one in the Eastern Conference and wins

287
00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:54,960
sixty games.

288
00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:57,639
Speaker 1: Again, I think that's yeah, yeah, I don't think teams

289
00:12:57,679 --> 00:13:01,559
like think this way necessarily or explicitly, but it's like

290
00:13:02,639 --> 00:13:04,080
they can look at each other and say, like, we

291
00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:07,120
don't need sixty four like to be the number one seed,

292
00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:09,799
like odds are historically, Like, you know, that's that's a

293
00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:14,759
ridiculous win total. It doesn't happen often. Fifty nine might

294
00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:17,679
do it, and you know, once like fifty six, I'm

295
00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:20,720
saying fifty six fifty seven is plenty to win the East. So, like,

296
00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:22,919
I do think that a little bit of knowledge. Now,

297
00:13:23,039 --> 00:13:24,720
I don't know if that changes if like some of

298
00:13:24,759 --> 00:13:27,600
these other East teams were pretty high on like get

299
00:13:27,639 --> 00:13:30,200
off to crazy starts and maybe Boston actually cares about

300
00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:32,480
the one seed, but like, like it just this is

301
00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:34,960
just what happens. I think after a championship. It would

302
00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:37,399
be my guest, given in addition to their specific like

303
00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:40,440
injury and health and age circumstances.

304
00:13:39,919 --> 00:13:41,840
Speaker 2: If I told you they were just determined to go

305
00:13:41,919 --> 00:13:44,159
for it during the regular season, would you just smashed

306
00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:44,799
the over.

307
00:13:45,159 --> 00:13:48,039
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean I think sixty should

308
00:13:48,159 --> 00:13:50,559
is like totally doable even with the Porzingis stuff. If

309
00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:51,279
they really cared.

310
00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:53,759
Speaker 2: This team that's coming up is not going to win

311
00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:55,240
sixty games. I can tell you that much right now.

312
00:13:55,279 --> 00:13:57,720
In might lose sixty though, if not more. The Brooklyn

313
00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:01,480
Nets over under of eighteen and a half, mister Hughes,

314
00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:05,600
which I think is the second lowest over under projection.

315
00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:08,399
From that, we're using fan duel for this.

316
00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:12,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I had them over initially and then again had

317
00:14:12,519 --> 00:14:15,000
to peel some wins off. I had them at nineteen.

318
00:14:15,399 --> 00:14:18,240
It's just like this is a little bit. Portland is

319
00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:20,480
the more extreme case. We discussed them already as like

320
00:14:20,519 --> 00:14:23,159
you know, there's actually a lot of good veteran talent here.

321
00:14:23,519 --> 00:14:25,720
Brooklyn's not in that boat, but you could. You could

322
00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:27,919
just look at it and say, like, well, until guys

323
00:14:27,919 --> 00:14:31,679
get traded, like Dennis Shrewder, probably a very low end starter,

324
00:14:31,799 --> 00:14:34,519
but like is an NBA veteran who's been capable on

325
00:14:34,559 --> 00:14:39,080
playoff teams before, Cam Thomas, Dorian Finney Smith, Cam Johnson,

326
00:14:39,159 --> 00:14:42,840
Nick Claxton, We like Noah Clowney, Like I'm not gonna

327
00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:45,279
say Ben Simmons, but Ben Simmons, Like maybe there's something

328
00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:49,159
there you could if if they wanted to go for it,

329
00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:51,759
this team could win in the mid twenties. Maybe, Like

330
00:14:51,799 --> 00:14:55,240
that's not totally ridiculous, but that's a low bar. But

331
00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:57,799
I did go under. I ended up with seventeen here

332
00:14:58,879 --> 00:15:01,799
and it's just you got to pull the wins from somewhere.

333
00:15:01,879 --> 00:15:06,320
And like, this is a Nets team that is firmly

334
00:15:06,519 --> 00:15:10,480
in a rebuild, and if there's any lever they can

335
00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:13,240
pull to make sure they have a bottom three four record,

336
00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:14,200
I think they'll pull it.

337
00:15:14,919 --> 00:15:17,519
Speaker 2: I went under as well. I have them at fifteen wins.

338
00:15:17,639 --> 00:15:21,600
I'm just they have a finite window in which they

339
00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:23,919
can be as bad as possible. They have no cornerstone

340
00:15:23,919 --> 00:15:25,960
on their team. Nick Claxton or Cam Thomas probably the

341
00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:28,879
closest they come. If Cooper flag odds are at steak.

342
00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:30,240
I know it's all about, well, you only need a

343
00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:32,639
bottom four record to have those odds, or they're flattened

344
00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:34,039
enough to where if you finish with the fifth or

345
00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:36,559
six worst record, it's fine. This team one doesn't have

346
00:15:36,559 --> 00:15:38,960
the talent to do that. Like who is driving this offense?

347
00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:41,000
I don't want to hear any more about Ben Simmons

348
00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:43,039
until he gets out there and does the thing. Yeah,

349
00:15:43,159 --> 00:15:45,080
Cam Thomas is good? Is he a good enough passer?

350
00:15:45,159 --> 00:15:48,159
I have no idea. So this team I think is

351
00:15:48,159 --> 00:15:49,919
going to be bad on purpose and the other part,

352
00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:52,480
like they're even if they don't make trades, and I

353
00:15:52,519 --> 00:15:56,159
would expect that multiples from when we're talking Cam Johnson,

354
00:15:56,240 --> 00:16:00,879
Cam Thomas, Dorian Finney Smith, Dennis Shrewder, maybe Ben sim Is,

355
00:16:00,919 --> 00:16:03,080
Nick Claxton. If you're gonna set the over, I just

356
00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:04,679
name what six guys. If you're gonna set the over

357
00:16:04,759 --> 00:16:06,759
under two and a half of those guys being traded,

358
00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:09,320
I'm taking the over. And even if they're not, this

359
00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:11,799
team is shutting people down after the All Star break, right,

360
00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:15,080
Nick Claxton got paid. They're not gonna flinch at doing

361
00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:17,080
that if he's still on the roster. Pass the trade deadline.

362
00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:20,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's right. It's just you know they're

363
00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:23,200
going to be bad and maybe the worst team in

364
00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:25,279
the East. Is just a question of like how low

365
00:16:25,399 --> 00:16:26,600
do they really think they got to go.

366
00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:29,279
Speaker 2: I would actually argue that they're doing themselves a disservice

367
00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:30,960
if they went to the trouble of acquiring their own

368
00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,399
draft picks and they don't have one of the three

369
00:16:33,519 --> 00:16:34,799
worst records in the league.

370
00:16:35,159 --> 00:16:37,639
Speaker 1: Like what's the Oprah thing? Like when someone tells you

371
00:16:37,679 --> 00:16:40,240
who they are, believe them Like that just told us

372
00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:42,279
who they were. They got their picks back for a reason.

373
00:16:42,399 --> 00:16:44,039
That's what's gonna happen.

374
00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:47,879
Speaker 2: This next team, the Charlotte Hornets over under of twenty

375
00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:49,799
nine and a half grant I will say, before you

376
00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:53,279
get started, I understand the logic now when I sat

377
00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:57,200
here and thought more critically about it. Why the over

378
00:16:57,279 --> 00:17:00,679
under is so low? This almost just seems like a

379
00:17:00,679 --> 00:17:04,160
classic case of they're assuming nobody's going to be healthy,

380
00:17:04,279 --> 00:17:06,440
which which whatever's going on with Mark Williams might be

381
00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:09,480
a goo assumption, or that people are getting traded. And

382
00:17:09,519 --> 00:17:12,240
because I like this team on paper when they're at

383
00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:14,359
full strength, which is my initial english was oh, this

384
00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:16,480
is low. I started thinking through it a little bit more.

385
00:17:16,519 --> 00:17:18,480
I was like, I get to why you would be

386
00:17:18,519 --> 00:17:20,200
this low, if not lower on Charlotte.

387
00:17:20,279 --> 00:17:24,200
Speaker 1: I agree, I get it too. This is a pessimistic

388
00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:26,680
over under number. This twenty nine and a half. I

389
00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:31,279
think I was way higher. Like, I look, if you

390
00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:33,920
made a really compelling case that the Hornets over under

391
00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:36,319
should be like thirty seven and a half, I'd be like,

392
00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:40,359
I get it. Because it's LaMelo ball. Maybe he's an

393
00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:42,559
All Star again. Last time he was healthy, he was he's.

394
00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:43,319
Speaker 2: An NBA player.

395
00:17:43,319 --> 00:17:46,240
Speaker 1: Like, if he's an NBA player, right, maybe Brandon Miller

396
00:17:46,319 --> 00:17:50,599
second year jump, like Miles Bridges is a good NBA player,

397
00:17:50,799 --> 00:17:55,240
Like that's just that full we'll discussion over. Like the

398
00:17:55,319 --> 00:17:57,839
Mark Williams injury is a great Here we go again,

399
00:17:58,039 --> 00:18:02,039
like how much does there's there's a lot of reasons

400
00:18:02,079 --> 00:18:04,759
to be doubtful, but man, like I think this might

401
00:18:04,759 --> 00:18:07,200
be a there's there's quite a bit of range here.

402
00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:10,039
I think that you could you could envision I did

403
00:18:10,079 --> 00:18:13,400
go over by the narrowest margin possible. I have them

404
00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:17,559
at thirty wins. I really really could be talked into

405
00:18:17,599 --> 00:18:20,799
like seven or eight more if if someone wanted to

406
00:18:20,839 --> 00:18:23,039
make the case, like if you think Charlotte is like a, oh,

407
00:18:23,079 --> 00:18:26,920
they're a plan team, no question, Like I'm receptive. I'm

408
00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:29,839
receptive to that. I don't think they're a team that's

409
00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:32,359
gonna go what do they win? Like twenty low twenties

410
00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:37,079
last year? I can't even remember now twenty one. Yeah,

411
00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:39,559
they were twenty one with a with a point differential

412
00:18:39,599 --> 00:18:41,799
of a seventeen win team by the way, So like

413
00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:46,000
we're we're projecting massive growth in Charlotte this season, But yeah,

414
00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:47,799
is that how you feel like? There's just like the

415
00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:48,920
range is pretty big here.

416
00:18:49,599 --> 00:18:51,240
Speaker 2: Yes, when I first went through, I had them at

417
00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:55,000
thirty eight. I ripped winds away from them. They're still over,

418
00:18:55,279 --> 00:18:58,839
but I have them at thirty because I just there's

419
00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,039
the health factor for sure with LaMelo, and we know

420
00:19:01,039 --> 00:19:04,880
about Mark Williams. But this team is still I understand

421
00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:07,160
that on paper they could be good, but if they're

422
00:19:07,279 --> 00:19:09,240
if they have the chance to win thirty eight games,

423
00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:13,319
it's probably because Miles Bridges is playing well, Cody Martin

424
00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:15,880
is healthy and playing well. Why are those guys still

425
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:17,759
on the team when you're looking at the trajectory of

426
00:19:17,759 --> 00:19:21,559
this franchise and everything they've prioritized since the new regime

427
00:19:21,559 --> 00:19:24,680
took over has been bigger picture. And so I'm not

428
00:19:24,759 --> 00:19:26,279
trying to you know, this is like kind of a

429
00:19:26,319 --> 00:19:29,079
backhanded compliment, but I don't think they're gonna be comfortable

430
00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:31,920
with being on a thirty seven thirty eight win track

431
00:19:32,079 --> 00:19:34,079
like Michael Jordan would have been. I don't think that

432
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:37,599
this group is going to be and so and like, honestly,

433
00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:39,440
winning thirty eight games might have been the goal, just

434
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:40,960
to like make the play in and I don't think

435
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:42,680
they're gonna get caught up in that. Now. Maybe if

436
00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:45,720
they're so much better than expected, they might view it

437
00:19:45,759 --> 00:19:47,680
as like where we have our two guys in LaMelo

438
00:19:47,759 --> 00:19:51,839
and Brandon Miller. But honestly, I would I even feel like,

439
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:54,079
are we just going to rule out that LaMelo's a

440
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:57,240
trade candidate here? I wouldn't go into this season as

441
00:19:57,319 --> 00:20:00,559
Charlotte aiming to do this. But if he's healthy, playing

442
00:20:00,599 --> 00:20:03,720
exceptionally well, and someone comes, if Orlando comes in with

443
00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:06,680
just a massive offer, it's you're early enough into your

444
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,279
rebuild that it's oh okay. Even if a. Mel's healthy, though,

445
00:20:09,279 --> 00:20:11,920
and you're not trading him? Are we sure he's gonna

446
00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:13,759
play a ton after the All Star break? I guess

447
00:20:13,759 --> 00:20:15,440
if all MBA is on the line and that's what

448
00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:18,119
and he's in the discussion, sure you have to. But

449
00:20:18,759 --> 00:20:20,880
I think that this is a team that has bigger

450
00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,359
aspirations than just winning thirty seven thirty eight games, And

451
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:28,000
unless that they're decidedly above five hundred, I don't think

452
00:20:28,039 --> 00:20:29,279
they'll lean into that.

453
00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:32,799
Speaker 1: I think their draft pick, too, who's you know, he's

454
00:20:32,799 --> 00:20:35,039
in the kabaklaow zone of like two years away from

455
00:20:35,079 --> 00:20:38,960
two years away, suggests that like we're cool with like

456
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:41,000
a very long runway here, But I want to ask

457
00:20:41,039 --> 00:20:45,480
you pricing like average health, Like we don't need eighty

458
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,119
two games from LaMelo and Brandon Miller, but you get

459
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:52,160
seventy from each of them, right, and like no teardown trades.

460
00:20:52,799 --> 00:20:55,880
If if you give me those variables, or if I

461
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:59,680
give you those, I solidify those those are no longer variables.

462
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:03,119
There not selling off and they don't have major injury

463
00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:06,960
issues just like average injury luck. Can this team win

464
00:21:07,039 --> 00:21:10,640
fewer than thirty games if those variables are like accounted for?

465
00:21:11,599 --> 00:21:15,400
Speaker 2: I guess it depends on, like, how committed are they

466
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:17,599
to the developmental course?

467
00:21:17,839 --> 00:21:20,200
Speaker 1: No shutdowns either, no late season shutdowns.

468
00:21:20,319 --> 00:21:22,400
Speaker 2: Well, I mean so, I guess here's my thing would

469
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:24,720
be this would be the like the gauge for me

470
00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,240
or so are we just assuming then I don't expect

471
00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,640
Salon to play a bunch before the All Star breaker

472
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,519
of the trade deadline. Are you saying like that's the

473
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:35,440
like they're not going to prioritize. Well, let's see what

474
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:37,640
Brandon Miller can do with even more odd ball offense.

475
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,839
Let's see what t John Salon could do with more

476
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:43,920
playing time. And so, if they're going for it and

477
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,599
they're healthy, no, I don't see a pathway to this

478
00:21:46,599 --> 00:21:49,079
team winning fewer than thirty games. I actually know this

479
00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:51,880
is funny. I diverging from John Hollingser on this where

480
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:53,640
he's like, well, look at what they did when they

481
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:55,960
had Terry Rozier and PJ. Washington, not last season, but

482
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:57,880
the season before. They still didn't win a bunch of games.

483
00:21:58,519 --> 00:22:02,440
I still think that LaMelo ball is the great equalizer

484
00:22:02,519 --> 00:22:05,519
there to where this guy is transcendent on the offensive end,

485
00:22:05,839 --> 00:22:08,880
and if he's healthy, this is a thirty plus win team.

486
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:12,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I guess my question is really just

487
00:22:12,519 --> 00:22:15,279
like a roundabout way of me saying, like the talent

488
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:18,400
here is more than sufficient to be like pushing for

489
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:21,440
a plan if they want to. And though the reason

490
00:22:21,519 --> 00:22:23,559
there's so much variance or like you could talk yourself

491
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,440
up or down so much is like we're not it's

492
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:29,359
unclear at this point, like what their priorities are going

493
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:31,839
to be, even though I think you're probably right that

494
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:34,960
like if it comes and that's reflected in our numbers here,

495
00:22:36,039 --> 00:22:39,799
like they should, I think we should have faith that

496
00:22:39,839 --> 00:22:43,559
they'll realize that like twenty six wins is better than

497
00:22:43,599 --> 00:22:47,400
thirty eight wins for what this organization seems to be

498
00:22:47,519 --> 00:22:49,039
going for. But we'll see.

499
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,039
Speaker 2: And I will say, as the final thought would be,

500
00:22:52,079 --> 00:22:54,759
if you think they're going to be healthy, the only

501
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:58,559
reason to go under here is you think they're actively

502
00:22:58,599 --> 00:23:01,359
going to steer out of clearing it. And that's I

503
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,519
mean even that, Is there anyone on this team that

504
00:23:04,559 --> 00:23:07,799
you independent of LaMelo, that you could just move or

505
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,400
shut down that is going to impact their bottom line

506
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,440
when it comes to wins and losses like to that degree?

507
00:23:14,759 --> 00:23:15,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, probably not.

508
00:23:17,039 --> 00:23:19,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't be Brandon Miller and that's no go.

509
00:23:19,759 --> 00:23:22,559
And maybe Miles Bridges. I don't know how many. If

510
00:23:22,559 --> 00:23:25,200
you're telling me Melow plays all season and you trade

511
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:28,480
Miles Bridges, I still think this d wins more than thirty.

512
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,559
Speaker 1: Games, right right? Right? Yeah? Come pretty comfortable over Weirdly,

513
00:23:31,599 --> 00:23:32,880
even though we're just barely over.

514
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 2: It's just like I had to rip wins from somebody.

515
00:23:34,559 --> 00:23:36,720
I'm trusting that they care about the bigger picture more,

516
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:39,640
I'm not sure if this team cares about the bigger picture.

517
00:23:40,039 --> 00:23:42,319
Uh spoiler alerts. They are up on screen. But the

518
00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:45,319
Chicago Bulls twenty seven and a half, I'll spoil it.

519
00:23:45,319 --> 00:23:46,119
Speaker 1: It's up there already.

520
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 2: We both went under. I don't feel good about this though.

521
00:23:49,599 --> 00:23:51,680
I don't trust that the Bulls are not going to

522
00:23:51,759 --> 00:23:53,559
try and win thirty two games.

523
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:57,359
Speaker 1: This is the problem, like because we so I had

524
00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:00,640
them like, I'm at twenty six, so I'm under by

525
00:24:00,759 --> 00:24:04,000
You're you're quite a bit lower than me at what

526
00:24:04,079 --> 00:24:05,720
twenty one is what you have them at?

527
00:24:06,079 --> 00:24:08,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I pulled wins from them, and I'm also

528
00:24:08,519 --> 00:24:11,640
just like like you, they have to understand, right, come.

529
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:17,759
Speaker 1: On, fellas that said, I just in my initial run through,

530
00:24:17,759 --> 00:24:21,240
I was like, why can't they win thirty seven games?

531
00:24:21,599 --> 00:24:25,200
What if they if zach Lavine? Did you see the

532
00:24:25,279 --> 00:24:28,640
zach Lavine opening statement at media day?

533
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:30,759
Speaker 2: Just no? I did you see the image where it

534
00:24:30,759 --> 00:24:33,200
looked like him and Nikolovucevic just found out they were

535
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:36,599
playing for the Chicago Bulls. They looked like they were prisoners, honestly.

536
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,920
Speaker 1: So again, it's a little bit like the Charlotte argument

537
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,440
where it's like, well, if Levine stays here, which is like,

538
00:24:44,519 --> 00:24:47,119
what are we really talking about? Are they can't possibly

539
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:50,680
not trade Levine, like if his value tips into positive territory,

540
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:53,119
But then you just go through. It's like Kobe White's good,

541
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:55,279
the soon moves good, maybe Patrick Williams will be good.

542
00:24:55,319 --> 00:24:58,720
Like there's just there's a mid thirties team here, even

543
00:24:58,759 --> 00:25:02,319
without DeRozan and and Alex Caruso. But they just can't

544
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,000
do it like they they gotta be. They have to

545
00:25:05,079 --> 00:25:06,759
realize what the assignment is.

546
00:25:06,799 --> 00:25:09,599
Speaker 2: I think, and I think they look, you have that

547
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:11,720
pick two. That's O to San Antonio is you don't

548
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:13,519
want a chance it it's top ten protected and you

549
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:16,240
have to suck. You have to suck, and the means

550
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:18,359
by which you do that I think any team that's

551
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:20,839
planning on having Josh Giddy run the show. But by

552
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:23,359
the way, Josh Giddy's injured, so I mean that's gonna

553
00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:25,000
throw a wrench. So now you're just gonna integrate him

554
00:25:25,039 --> 00:25:27,400
on the fly. And the other thing, too, is I

555
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,440
wouldn't say I trust them to steer out of winning

556
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:34,559
too many games. But like if Patrick Williams, Kobe White,

557
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,039
Zach Lavine, and Iol desume we're all still on this

558
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:40,160
roster past the trade deadline, I'll be sufficiently flabbergasted.

559
00:25:40,839 --> 00:25:43,640
Speaker 1: This is a team that is in position to a

560
00:25:43,759 --> 00:25:47,599
year from now be at like absolute zero, right like

561
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:51,480
if Levine gone for picks and whatever, Kobe White gone

562
00:25:51,519 --> 00:25:53,160
to as soon move gone, and then it's just like

563
00:25:53,279 --> 00:25:57,400
Josh Giddy, assuming they extend him, and that's like, that's

564
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,640
Itvucevich somehow gone. I don't know how you trade him.

565
00:26:00,799 --> 00:26:02,839
Speaker 2: By the way, this could become dated, but we're getting

566
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:04,960
close enough where there's only a couple weeks left before

567
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:08,759
the deadline. If you're not gonna extend Josh Giddy, you

568
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:10,599
need to reu justify that trade.

569
00:26:10,599 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 1: All.

570
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:12,359
Speaker 2: I'm not First of all, I'm not saying that I'm

571
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:14,599
gonna like the number they extend Hi Matt, but you

572
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:17,839
already valued him as Oh he was worth Alex Caruso

573
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:19,200
on his own and that, by the way, that's the

574
00:26:19,279 --> 00:26:22,400
other thing here, throw the whole You know, are the

575
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,720
Bulls gonna twist themselves in a losing enough games? You

576
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,799
just traded two of your or lost two of your

577
00:26:28,839 --> 00:26:31,640
three best players from because you had Kobe White, DeRozan

578
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:34,319
and Caruso. Those weren't the Chicago Bulls becuz zach Lean

579
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,480
was injured, wasn't playing really well when he tried to

580
00:26:36,519 --> 00:26:38,599
fight through it. Those were two of your three best

581
00:26:38,599 --> 00:26:41,440
players and they're now gone and you replace them with

582
00:26:41,799 --> 00:26:44,680
Josh Giddy. That's not enough to offset. And that's a team.

583
00:26:44,799 --> 00:26:48,519
So the Bulls last year win thirty nine games. So

584
00:26:48,759 --> 00:26:52,599
going from uh, excuse me, going from Demarcroes and Alex

585
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,079
Russo to Josh Giddy. I'm not saying that's gonna cost

586
00:26:55,079 --> 00:26:58,640
you fourteen wins necessarily, but it's a pretty damn good start.

587
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,039
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, yeah, exactly. Even if they don't steer into

588
00:27:01,039 --> 00:27:03,839
the skid, they've definitely I don't know, the cars out

589
00:27:03,839 --> 00:27:06,359
of control or hopefully it is in this case to

590
00:27:06,559 --> 00:27:07,519
butcher an analogy.

591
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 2: Our next team, the Cleveland Cavaliers, coming at forty eight

592
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:14,720
and a half wins. Mister Hughes, you are a big

593
00:27:14,759 --> 00:27:17,640
advocate that they should trade everybody and rebuild around Greg

594
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:19,559
Porter Junior. So I'm curious where you land on this.

595
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, this team I think has a really good chance

596
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:30,880
of blowing this number out of the water. I don't know.

597
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:35,559
It's partly the stability, it's partly the coaching change. I think,

598
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,039
you know, we did a little bit of discussion about

599
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,599
Kenny Atkinson and what he might do for Evan Mobley,

600
00:27:40,799 --> 00:27:43,440
and based on what he's done did for Brook Lopez

601
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,480
in the past, I think just this team's top four

602
00:27:46,799 --> 00:27:48,640
is better than it was last year when it was

603
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,599
everybody was hurt. Darius Garland's season fell apart when he

604
00:27:51,599 --> 00:27:53,119
broke his jaw and lost a bunch of weight because

605
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:55,720
you couldn't eat. Like there's just there's so many easy

606
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,160
you know, there's so much low hanging fruit to pick here,

607
00:27:58,559 --> 00:28:00,960
whether it's from a health person eive or like they'll

608
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:05,200
just be deployed more like optimally with a new coach

609
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:08,440
in charge. So this wasn't an easy over for me

610
00:28:08,519 --> 00:28:11,160
and this was yet another one that I peeled off,

611
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:12,720
like I think I might have had them at like

612
00:28:12,799 --> 00:28:15,880
fifty six fifty seven, but I got them at fifty three,

613
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,440
and I still like forty eight and a half, like

614
00:28:18,519 --> 00:28:20,839
they're gonna smoke that number, I think. I just think

615
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:22,559
I feel so good about this over.

616
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 2: I hate the overall this too, and I had them

617
00:28:25,279 --> 00:28:27,400
and I still might change it. You'll have to people

618
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:28,880
have to watch and see what the graphics say at

619
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:32,000
the end. I've when I was going through it, there

620
00:28:32,039 --> 00:28:33,200
was at one point where I had them as the

621
00:28:33,279 --> 00:28:35,160
number two seed in the Eastern Conference, and I still

622
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:36,759
might get there because I really don't know what to

623
00:28:36,799 --> 00:28:38,119
do to make sense of the Knicks of it all,

624
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:40,759
where they're trying to integrate so many new pieces and

625
00:28:40,799 --> 00:28:45,200
they're fairly shallow, but like unlike the Sixers and the Knicks,

626
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:47,079
like the Cavs have some continuity now I know that

627
00:28:47,119 --> 00:28:49,359
they have, well not now, but they did and they

628
00:28:49,359 --> 00:28:52,160
still do. You're adding Kenny Atkinson. That's just different from

629
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:54,759
trying to throw in all these different new rotation players,

630
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:56,640
which they're not going to be tesked with doing. And

631
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,640
by the way, last year everyone just thinks not that

632
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,079
it was a had agracle failure, but they were for

633
00:29:02,119 --> 00:29:05,079
some reason more pessimistic on the Cavs. Who they're missing.

634
00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:07,920
Domin Mitchell doesn't even qualify for the year end awards,

635
00:29:08,079 --> 00:29:10,160
Darius Garland misses a bunch of time. It didn't have

636
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:12,319
his best season for a good chunk of it. Evan

637
00:29:12,359 --> 00:29:15,480
Mobley misses a bunch of time. They still won forty

638
00:29:15,519 --> 00:29:18,000
eight games, and so you have to what is the

639
00:29:18,039 --> 00:29:21,839
pathway to them. I'm surprised that the over under was

640
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:24,319
so low. I don't understand why it wouldn't be higher.

641
00:29:25,119 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just a bet that the injury stuff continues.

642
00:29:29,319 --> 00:29:31,680
I mean, I've oh, yeah, okay, great, Yeah, they won

643
00:29:31,759 --> 00:29:34,599
fifty one two years ago, so like, what do we

644
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:38,599
do half they're worse? Like why why are they worse

645
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:39,640
than that? I don't understand.

646
00:29:39,599 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 2: I guess she could make the argument the East is

647
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:44,000
better would be the I mean, but isn't it worse

648
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:44,519
at the bottom?

649
00:29:44,519 --> 00:29:47,039
Speaker 1: I guess I don't know. Yeah, even the bottom really

650
00:29:47,079 --> 00:29:49,599
just has the two teams that are really horrible.

651
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:50,000
Speaker 2: I don't know.

652
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:51,559
Speaker 1: I just think forty eight and a half is like

653
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:52,559
just not high enough.

654
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,559
Speaker 2: So no, if this team Honestly, if they're healthy and

655
00:29:55,599 --> 00:29:59,480
they win fewer than fifty games, I don't know what

656
00:29:59,599 --> 00:30:00,559
the reason it would be.

657
00:30:00,799 --> 00:30:03,599
Speaker 1: Right. Here's the thing too, when like I think one

658
00:30:03,599 --> 00:30:05,559
of the we haven't discussed this yet, it'll probably come

659
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,920
up again. But like a really really good defense, which

660
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:12,200
the Caves are gonna have, just sets your floor. You know,

661
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:16,440
if you're the number five defense, like your offense can

662
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:18,640
be league average and you just win forty eight games,

663
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:20,640
Like if they're a little better than that, then you're

664
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:22,200
well over fifty, you know what I mean. Like, the

665
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:26,559
predictability of the defense to me is just is really

666
00:30:26,759 --> 00:30:29,400
like just augurs towards like, oh yeah, this win total

667
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:31,000
is gonna be in the fifties. I don't know.

668
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 2: I'm with you on that front. Will we be with

669
00:30:34,039 --> 00:30:36,039
each other on this front? As we talk about the

670
00:30:36,119 --> 00:30:36,960
Dallas batteries?

671
00:30:37,519 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 1: All right, so I'll talk about him a little bit here,

672
00:30:39,519 --> 00:30:41,839
all right? Well the over under here, Dan, and you

673
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:45,160
can lead in since I've put a monopoly on that

674
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:47,759
so far. Forty nine and a half is the number

675
00:30:47,759 --> 00:30:48,359
for Dallas.

676
00:30:48,599 --> 00:30:51,799
Speaker 2: What do you got? I have them over and I

677
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:54,319
have them quite comfortably. They were a team I ended

678
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:57,240
up needing to pull some wins off of and buy.

679
00:30:57,400 --> 00:30:58,920
When I say that, I mean I still let them

680
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:02,720
at fifty three. I don't. I think they got more

681
00:31:02,799 --> 00:31:07,160
dynamic on the offensive end without submarining what they're able

682
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:10,920
to do on defense. And I'm wondering where my disconnect

683
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:13,920
is from people who are I see the argument basically

684
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:17,079
laid out that despite making the NBA Finals, the MAVs

685
00:31:17,119 --> 00:31:20,079
are further away from a title than expected. If you

686
00:31:20,119 --> 00:31:22,960
want to, okay, sure, but like there are people who

687
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,160
believe that they got worse and I just don't like

688
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:27,920
Derek Jones Junior couldn't have meant that much to them.

689
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:29,400
I guess you can worry about, well, what does the

690
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:33,279
defense look like? During Luca Clay Kyrie minnotes there's just

691
00:31:33,359 --> 00:31:36,200
easy staggering there. And so I'm wondering if I'm just

692
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:39,480
higher than on because i think I'm pretty level headed

693
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,440
when it comes to the realities of the Klay Thompson fit,

694
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:43,319
what it does do for them, what it won't do,

695
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:45,400
where it'll hurt them, where it'll help them. The people

696
00:31:45,519 --> 00:31:48,359
think that Klay Thompson is helping your shot creation, that's

697
00:31:48,359 --> 00:31:51,000
a no for me. Dog, that's not no that's not happening,

698
00:31:51,839 --> 00:31:54,119
But like, is it just I'm higher on the idea

699
00:31:54,119 --> 00:31:56,480
of Nausey Marshall and Quenton Grimes, Then.

700
00:31:57,599 --> 00:32:00,279
Speaker 1: I mean, while I'm with you, I'm over here also

701
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:02,599
not quite to the degree you are. But this is

702
00:32:02,599 --> 00:32:04,960
another case where I like, of the top four or

703
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:07,000
five West teams, I think I peeled off like a

704
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:08,960
couple wins. So I think I was probably in that

705
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:11,680
fifty three range you were in before I like knocked

706
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:14,119
down the number one, two, three, four, five seeds a

707
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:15,960
little bit to get to where I have them is

708
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:19,359
just fifty one. I think it's fifty one, right, Yeah,

709
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:23,920
fifty one. They won fifty last year. So the argument

710
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:28,279
has to be that the Derek Jones junior loss not

711
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:33,920
only cannot be covered up for by Thompson, Grimes Marshall,

712
00:32:34,359 --> 00:32:37,480
but also that like Derek Lively won't get better, that

713
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:40,240
like Luca might not have like a fraction of a

714
00:32:40,319 --> 00:32:42,279
higher gear. Now that's like you probably don't want to

715
00:32:42,279 --> 00:32:44,480
make that your first argument, because it's very difficult to

716
00:32:44,559 --> 00:32:47,599
be better than Luca was last year. But I just

717
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:49,440
I think the defense is going to be good. I

718
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:52,000
think the offense is just like on autopilot. There's no

719
00:32:52,079 --> 00:32:54,200
way this offense is bad just because of Luca and

720
00:32:54,279 --> 00:32:58,599
Kyrie and rolling bigs and shooting like what so pretty

721
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:01,440
you know our numbers, yours more so than mine. I'm

722
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:03,480
I'm you know, like what one and a half wins

723
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:05,799
over but like another one like Cleveland where it's like

724
00:33:06,799 --> 00:33:11,079
the underhits if Luca gets hurt, basically like that's and

725
00:33:11,119 --> 00:33:12,039
I just not get.

726
00:33:12,039 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 2: Hurting, which is possible. Maybe Kyrie miss is a bunch

727
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:17,200
of time. All Right, You're not gonna win the title

728
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:20,720
if you don't have Kyrie. Sure, yeah, but okay, just

729
00:33:21,039 --> 00:33:23,160
like Luca's just and the way that he showed that

730
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:25,920
he could play it at variable paces last year, and

731
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:29,759
they're just I'm trying to what is this team's biggest weakness?

732
00:33:30,119 --> 00:33:30,359
Speaker 1: Is it?

733
00:33:30,559 --> 00:33:32,559
Speaker 2: Just like if we're gonna get well, like they really

734
00:33:32,559 --> 00:33:36,200
still could use another ball handler, that's that's fair. But

735
00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:38,920
you have Kyrie and Luca and so it's just like

736
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:41,480
any third like you do, and you do have options.

737
00:33:41,519 --> 00:33:43,200
By the way, I know Dante xem is injured and

738
00:33:43,279 --> 00:33:46,759
Luca missed some time already, but like you have Spencer Dinwoodie,

739
00:33:46,759 --> 00:33:49,400
a veteran on the team. Maybe Jayden, Hardy Pops and

740
00:33:49,599 --> 00:33:51,640
but I'm not saying this is the perfect team, but

741
00:33:52,039 --> 00:33:54,880
they're deep, with real functional depth where it's not when

742
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,079
you talk to about some of these teams it's well

743
00:33:57,119 --> 00:33:58,960
if if this guy that would maybe be a knife

744
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:01,240
man on most rosters can be a sixth man or something.

745
00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:04,680
It's I honestly think, and this is probably one of

746
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,000
my more condescending takes, is that I don't think people

747
00:34:07,039 --> 00:34:10,039
realize how much of a difference both Naji Marshall and

748
00:34:10,119 --> 00:34:11,039
Quentin Grimes can make.

749
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think I think the knock would be

750
00:34:15,039 --> 00:34:19,639
or the concern would just be surrounding, like, well, Klay

751
00:34:19,679 --> 00:34:22,400
Thompson is helpful in this area, but not this one.

752
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:25,280
And maybe you'd say Naji Marshall is helpful in this area,

753
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:27,159
but not this one. And they don't have that guy

754
00:34:27,199 --> 00:34:29,840
that's helpful in every area at that position. It's like, well,

755
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:33,400
neither to twenty six other teams. So like that's just

756
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:37,159
you know, you The the flip side of that is that, well,

757
00:34:37,199 --> 00:34:40,159
they do have like a historically great shooter to space

758
00:34:40,199 --> 00:34:41,840
the floor if they need it, and they do have

759
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:43,880
a guy in Marshall who can guard and bring energy

760
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:46,920
and they do have grimes that can cut, so like, yeah,

761
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:50,719
they don't have a perfect third like wing option, I guess,

762
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:53,159
but they have like five guys that can be like

763
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:55,840
value adds in different ways. So yeah, I think I

764
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:58,039
think the over is pretty that's a pretty good place

765
00:34:58,079 --> 00:34:58,760
to be on this one.

766
00:35:00,119 --> 00:35:01,840
Speaker 2: Our next team. This is a little bit more tougher

767
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:02,079
for me.

768
00:35:02,559 --> 00:35:06,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, this this was, I mean it's tougher. Sorry, it

769
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:09,920
was the most toughest for me. The over underds fifty

770
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:13,840
and a half for Denver. I'll let you lead here.

771
00:35:14,159 --> 00:35:16,719
Why was it harder for you than say, then Dallas

772
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:18,039
are just just tough in general?

773
00:35:18,519 --> 00:35:20,159
Speaker 2: It was tough in general. So there are two reasons

774
00:35:20,199 --> 00:35:21,880
that it was tough. And it's not the idea that

775
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:25,159
they lost KCP in general. It's that now they're trying

776
00:35:25,199 --> 00:35:28,280
to like now they're trying to integrate Russell Westbrook, which

777
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:31,079
is always an adventure, and it's you're relying on you've

778
00:35:31,079 --> 00:35:34,880
decided that the crux of your like bench or your

779
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:36,920
non core guys that are going to prop up like

780
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:39,159
some those minutes, it needs to be not just Christian

781
00:35:39,159 --> 00:35:40,800
Breb but it has to be Peyton Watson. It has

782
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,920
to be Julian Strauther. You don't have alternatives. You didn't

783
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:47,320
bring back Justin Holliday. There just aren't alternatives on this roster.

784
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:49,840
There's gonna be a shaky situation when it comes to

785
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:52,079
backup five again. I would think, I know Dario Sharitz

786
00:35:52,199 --> 00:35:54,440
is there, but can you play him with Westbrook? There's

787
00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:57,199
so many rotation questions I have, And then it's okay,

788
00:35:57,199 --> 00:35:59,960
are Michael Malone and Calvin Booth on the same page?

789
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:02,559
Are they even in the same book? And so if

790
00:36:02,599 --> 00:36:05,159
the youngsters aren't coming along as quickly as expected, is

791
00:36:05,199 --> 00:36:07,920
their mandate to continue playing them? Is Michael Malone even

792
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:09,280
though it seems like they've taken a lot of the

793
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:11,480
alternatives out of his belt? Is it? I'm just gonna

794
00:36:11,559 --> 00:36:14,760
ride with Russell Westbrook over some of these guys because

795
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:17,440
they're not performing up to snuff, and maybe Westbrook has

796
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:19,719
the numbers or just the experience to where you trust

797
00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:23,039
him more. And the final thing is Adam Modes of

798
00:36:23,159 --> 00:36:24,800
DNVR Sports. When I was talking to him on our

799
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:27,199
Nuggets lookhead said that he didn't really think that they

800
00:36:27,199 --> 00:36:30,360
were gonna hit the over under because of all the

801
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:32,679
mitigating circless that we just talked about and that this

802
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,239
is a team that shouldn't really be focusing on it,

803
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:38,000
and I think there'll be some Jamal Murray concern that

804
00:36:38,039 --> 00:36:41,639
will creep in. I did eventually settle on over. I

805
00:36:41,679 --> 00:36:44,639
think Nicole Yokich is an iron man. I think somehow

806
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:48,239
Jamal Murray's become underrated in the sense that everyone's just

807
00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:51,119
penciling him like he's gonna suck all year. Even if

808
00:36:51,119 --> 00:36:54,079
he starts off slow, We've seen how he can close

809
00:36:54,159 --> 00:36:56,599
or at least work his way into form. I think

810
00:36:56,599 --> 00:36:59,760
the Nuggets will actually probably better defensively, not because they

811
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:02,440
lost KCP, but I think Christian Brown is better equipped

812
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:04,840
to handle a bunch of defensive assignments. And if you're

813
00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:07,239
leaning more on Peyton Watson, I think that's more of

814
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:09,000
a boon for your defense that it's going to be

815
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:11,960
your offense. And so if you're telling me their defense

816
00:37:12,039 --> 00:37:14,360
is going to get better and they still just have

817
00:37:14,519 --> 00:37:16,760
Nikola Jokic, so the offense is going to be good enough.

818
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:20,679
I struggle to see how this team wins fewer than

819
00:37:20,679 --> 00:37:25,079
fifty games, unless like there's an injury to Nikola Yokis

820
00:37:25,159 --> 00:37:27,719
or Jamal Murray's really and Honestly, if they lose Jamal Murray,

821
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:29,480
you could probably talk me in the Nuggets still winning

822
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:30,239
fifty one games.

823
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:32,760
Speaker 1: That's that's it for me. I would agree with everything

824
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:36,159
you said. It's just and I would just add, like, yo,

825
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:38,599
by the way, Jokic doesn't get hurt, So I'm over

826
00:37:38,639 --> 00:37:41,360
here too. I think we matched that fifty two wins

827
00:37:41,079 --> 00:37:45,920
for Denver. I still think until proven otherwise, definitively, Jokic

828
00:37:46,039 --> 00:37:48,000
is the best player in the world and if he

829
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:51,400
plays his normal amount, like, you just can't win fewer

830
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:53,440
than fifty one games, Like I just I don't know how.

831
00:37:53,519 --> 00:37:55,760
I don't know what the recipe is for that. Just

832
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:59,280
replace everybody with like league average guys or worse than that.

833
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:01,119
And it's just like he's still gonna make them great.

834
00:38:01,199 --> 00:38:03,400
Like we're not saying they're gonna win the conference or

835
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:06,400
they're gonna get sixty plus. It's just like fifty and

836
00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:08,639
a half. If you have and you have Jokic, Like,

837
00:38:08,679 --> 00:38:10,639
how do you go below? I don't I don't see

838
00:38:10,639 --> 00:38:11,679
how you get fewer than that.

839
00:38:12,199 --> 00:38:14,320
Speaker 2: I'm just wondering, are the non and even if the

840
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:17,519
non Yokic minutes are a disaster again, like we've still

841
00:38:17,519 --> 00:38:19,159
seeing them win fifty plus.

842
00:38:19,039 --> 00:38:21,199
Speaker 1: Which they will be. They will be that just that's

843
00:38:21,199 --> 00:38:21,679
what they are.

844
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:25,079
Speaker 2: But yeah, I honestly think in realms of what they're

845
00:38:25,119 --> 00:38:26,480
trying to do, or if you want to look at

846
00:38:26,519 --> 00:38:28,880
it through the ones of losing KCP, I think more

847
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:31,119
than anything, it winds up making them. It could make

848
00:38:31,159 --> 00:38:34,920
them a worse postseason team than it is going to

849
00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:36,519
impact them during the regular season.

850
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 1: I think that's right.

851
00:38:39,159 --> 00:38:41,599
Speaker 2: Very quickly, moving on here to the Detroit Pistons, a

852
00:38:41,639 --> 00:38:45,400
team that we differ on twenty five and a half grant,

853
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:48,159
which is Look, by the way, that's a really big

854
00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:50,519
uptick because they only won fourteen last year. That's all.

855
00:38:50,559 --> 00:38:53,280
I didn't know Tobias Harris was worth eleven victories.

856
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:56,360
Speaker 1: Basically, well, Dan, they had a point of Arngel of

857
00:38:56,400 --> 00:39:02,320
an eighteen win team. Does that so I this, I

858
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:04,239
should just stop saying this, because I think it's gonna

859
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:05,840
be the case, like across the board, but I had

860
00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:07,920
them higher before I needed to peel off my sixty

861
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:14,119
plus extra wins. I think they're a little better equipped

862
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:21,840
with shooting with Beasley Harris and to support Kate Cunningham, though,

863
00:39:22,199 --> 00:39:25,639
like you still probably just need to be spamming, you know,

864
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:28,159
Jade and Ivy k Cunning am minutes and Asar Thompson

865
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:30,639
Kate Cunning am minutes because you got to I mean,

866
00:39:30,679 --> 00:39:32,760
we may already have the answer on Ivy, but this

867
00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:34,320
is kind of like the make it or break it,

868
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:36,480
like are you the guy that we can play beside him?

869
00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:39,159
So that's a way you might suppress the winds total.

870
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:44,000
I just think there's enough like talent that is young

871
00:39:44,079 --> 00:39:48,840
and likely to get better, and also like sensible position

872
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:52,920
of need, skill set of need, veteran help to get

873
00:39:53,159 --> 00:39:56,960
over this number. And it's another case where it's like

874
00:39:57,599 --> 00:40:00,800
how many fucking years are we gonna Just like the Pistons,

875
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:02,960
I think more than almost any other franchise have got

876
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:07,800
to be sick of just these constant lottery seasons, right,

877
00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:10,199
So they might be a team that if they're in

878
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:11,960
a position where it's like we can go for it

879
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:14,159
and maybe get up to thirty seven thirty eight wins

880
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:16,639
and sniff the play in, or we shut it all

881
00:40:16,679 --> 00:40:18,719
down and we go for another high lottery pick. Even

882
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:20,840
with the draft being as highly regarded as it is,

883
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:22,760
I think the Pistons might be the team that would

884
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:28,239
be like, enough's enough. Now, new coach, new management, Like

885
00:40:28,519 --> 00:40:31,360
maybe for them it's like, well we didn't, we weren't

886
00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:33,480
in charge of all the other lottery seasons. We can

887
00:40:33,519 --> 00:40:37,920
handle one. So I got them at twenty nine wins,

888
00:40:39,079 --> 00:40:43,000
which is pretty comfortably over. Still obviously not a playing team,

889
00:40:43,039 --> 00:40:45,000
but I believe in Kay Cunningham. I think the young

890
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:47,159
guys will get better, and I think the vets are like,

891
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:50,800
okay to where this team will be respectable most nights.

892
00:40:51,679 --> 00:40:53,760
Speaker 2: So I went under, is this our first? I think

893
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:55,119
this is the first time we differed on.

894
00:40:55,119 --> 00:40:58,199
Speaker 1: The time, the part we've been too just raw wins.

895
00:40:58,639 --> 00:41:01,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going with twenty five three. I agree with

896
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:04,119
most of your points. I think we're probably at least

897
00:41:04,159 --> 00:41:06,639
a year away from the Pistons like deciding they need

898
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:09,199
they have to have to have to win more. And

899
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:11,599
part of that is there is a new regime in place,

900
00:41:11,639 --> 00:41:13,480
and maybe it's just I don't know if it's I'm

901
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:15,639
not a big enough believer in a young talent they have.

902
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:17,920
But this is still gonna be a developmental year. Kate

903
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:20,079
Cunningham should be great, as you already mentioned, they have

904
00:41:20,079 --> 00:41:22,960
more access to Kay Cunningham, plus shooting but like you

905
00:41:23,079 --> 00:41:26,559
need to get extensive run from Ron holland, Asar Thompson

906
00:41:26,639 --> 00:41:28,719
Jane n Ivy, I think Assar Thompson can already impact

907
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:31,920
winning in a positive light. That being said, I also

908
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:33,400
think you need to get a ton of information on well,

909
00:41:33,440 --> 00:41:36,719
what do most or all of our core prospects look

910
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:39,599
like together? And there are just so many redundancies when

911
00:41:39,599 --> 00:41:42,880
it comes to their weaknesses that I think that's gonna

912
00:41:43,079 --> 00:41:46,239
undermine the win loss of it all. Now, if you

913
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:48,960
tell me that JB. Bickerstaff has been instructed to coach

914
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:51,719
for victories and that the you know, if we're looking

915
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:54,639
at the top five leaders in total minutes played or

916
00:41:55,039 --> 00:41:58,239
Kay Cunningham and it's Tobias Harris and it's Malik Beasley

917
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:01,760
and Simoni Fonts and that's throughout or going okay, then sure.

918
00:42:02,159 --> 00:42:03,800
But I think even if you're just gonna say we

919
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:06,559
need to get a boatload of more information on Jade

920
00:42:06,559 --> 00:42:09,400
and Ivy, that's something that unless he just really makes

921
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:12,360
a leap into a positively impactful player, it's not just

922
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:14,360
about him playing well, but can he elevate the play

923
00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:16,760
of those around him? Ken Jayalen Duran get a lot

924
00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:19,639
better on the defensive end. It just feels, look, I

925
00:42:19,639 --> 00:42:22,079
haven't been being increased by nine wins. That's a big

926
00:42:22,199 --> 00:42:25,719
enough jump as it is, right, And so that coupled

927
00:42:25,719 --> 00:42:27,320
with the developed I mean like it just you have

928
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:29,679
them doubling more than doubling their win total, which is

929
00:42:29,719 --> 00:42:32,079
just tough for me to get to. I don't think

930
00:42:32,079 --> 00:42:34,480
it's outside the realm of possibility though, especially if we

931
00:42:34,559 --> 00:42:37,440
believe that there are more teams. We know the Wizards

932
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:39,480
of the Nets fall into this, but if you told

933
00:42:39,559 --> 00:42:43,360
us that, oh okay, Chicago is actively going to steer

934
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:45,880
out of what they're doing, a ditto for Charlotte, then

935
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:48,159
it gets easier, I think, to inflate the Pistons win total.

936
00:42:48,599 --> 00:42:51,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, no, that the jump in raw wins is

937
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:53,960
really it's like that almost never happens. I'm what I'm

938
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:54,840
projecting here, So I.

939
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 2: Think I'm either well enough though that it could That's

940
00:42:57,480 --> 00:42:57,719
the thing.

941
00:42:57,800 --> 00:42:59,760
Speaker 1: Twenty nine. It's like, oh my god, like anyone could

942
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:02,199
win twenty nine games, right, you would think it's just

943
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:04,440
when you're coming from fourteen that's pretty tough.

944
00:43:04,719 --> 00:43:06,719
Speaker 2: And it could be a situation, by the way, where

945
00:43:06,719 --> 00:43:08,840
it's like the Spurs last year won twenty two games,

946
00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:10,440
and you probably weren't happy with a lot of what

947
00:43:10,480 --> 00:43:13,239
they did, including playing Jeremy So at point guard, playing

948
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:15,719
Victor wemen Yama ex another big for too long. But

949
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:17,800
by the end of the season it seemed like they

950
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:19,480
were on. You had a ton of information, you knew

951
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:23,239
what you needed, You saw improvements from guys like Victor

952
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:26,039
wemen Yama himself, including Devin Missel when he was healthy,

953
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:28,719
Trey Jones, that you knew what you kind of knew

954
00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:30,920
what Jeremy So had. Is it could be that type

955
00:43:30,920 --> 00:43:34,039
of year for the Pistons, except maybe it's they should

956
00:43:34,039 --> 00:43:35,679
be better than that, because I think that there's just

957
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:39,119
there's more veterans on here, there's more higher end prospects

958
00:43:39,119 --> 00:43:40,960
that you could hope for improvement from.

959
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:43,840
Speaker 1: I would say last thing, because you just made me

960
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:48,480
think of it, Like do you I would suspect, assuming

961
00:43:48,519 --> 00:43:51,440
good health, that will have a pretty good idea of

962
00:43:51,519 --> 00:43:54,800
like which direction the Pistons might be leaning towards based

963
00:43:54,840 --> 00:43:57,400
on who's actually playing a lot early in the season,

964
00:43:57,679 --> 00:44:00,199
so like it might not take very long for us

965
00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:02,800
to realize like oh, oh Dan was right, or like, oh,

966
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:05,480
I might be okay here at twenty nine because if

967
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:08,119
it's just like, well, Asar Thompson's kind of buried or

968
00:44:08,199 --> 00:44:10,719
Jay and Ivy's getting twenty five minutes an like, I

969
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:13,960
think it might be pretty clear early, like what their

970
00:44:14,119 --> 00:44:15,400
sort of objectives are.

971
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:18,199
Speaker 2: If I set the over on direct zero point five

972
00:44:19,119 --> 00:44:21,760
of all of these players being on the roster or

973
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:25,000
being off the these players being traded between Jallen dur

974
00:44:25,079 --> 00:44:28,280
and Ron Holland, Asar Thompson and Jade and Ivy, do

975
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:29,960
you think all four of them basically basking do you

976
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:31,920
think all four of them are gonna finish the season

977
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:32,480
in Detroit?

978
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:36,079
Speaker 1: I mean that goes into like which way are they

979
00:44:36,119 --> 00:44:39,119
gonna go? I think I would say of that group,

980
00:44:39,199 --> 00:44:41,719
Ivy to me is pretty obviously the most likely to

981
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:44,719
move because you've seen the most of him. I just

982
00:44:45,599 --> 00:44:50,400
I don't know, I'd probably go under, just because like, one,

983
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:53,320
what is Detroit gonna get for Jade and Ivy that

984
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:55,800
it would really value? Like what would someone give up

985
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:58,360
for Ivy? Like, are you like what team is it?

986
00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:00,079
That's like we got to have that guy, here's something

987
00:45:00,119 --> 00:45:02,159
you would want for him? Pistons as opposed to the

988
00:45:02,159 --> 00:45:05,119
Pistons saying we'll take another year. We could still use

989
00:45:05,119 --> 00:45:07,840
restricted free agency. We're definitely not extending him unless it's

990
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:10,840
a total bargain. So I'd probably go under it. Would

991
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:11,320
you go over?

992
00:45:12,559 --> 00:45:15,280
Speaker 2: I'm tempted to go over just because I really think

993
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:18,159
there's something to the effect of there's a new front

994
00:45:18,159 --> 00:45:21,119
office regime in place. None of these guys except for

995
00:45:21,199 --> 00:45:23,559
Ron Holland or there guys basically, and they made some

996
00:45:23,599 --> 00:45:26,920
free agency decisions they already extended kid. I think I'm

997
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:29,599
just gonna take the over with the caveat that I

998
00:45:29,679 --> 00:45:33,920
would view if I were Trajan Langdonkad Cunningham, and Asar

999
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:36,199
Thompson is just like my untouchables, like I'm not in

1000
00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:39,159
the market for. But again, I could speak to if

1001
00:45:39,199 --> 00:45:40,920
someone comes along. If you're a big believer in Ron

1002
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:44,320
Holland as the Trajan Langdon led front office, and I

1003
00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:46,719
don't like, who's the best player you could get for

1004
00:45:46,840 --> 00:45:49,440
Sara Thompson if you're trying to win games, would you

1005
00:45:49,559 --> 00:45:53,559
rule it out necessarily? Again, I'm super high on Nasar Thompson,

1006
00:45:53,679 --> 00:45:55,239
so maybe I should probably go on here. I'm just

1007
00:45:55,280 --> 00:46:00,639
gonna go over because like, again, these aren't there and

1008
00:46:00,639 --> 00:46:02,960
they already one of them and Kay Cunningham and so

1009
00:46:03,159 --> 00:46:05,000
I think just given the redundancies when it comes to

1010
00:46:05,039 --> 00:46:09,360
the weaknesses, not necessarily the positions they play, or necessarily

1011
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:12,679
even their strengths, it just feels like there's some sort

1012
00:46:12,679 --> 00:46:15,639
of it's not combustibility, but turnover potential.

1013
00:46:16,199 --> 00:46:16,679
Speaker 1: That's fair.

1014
00:46:17,800 --> 00:46:20,840
Speaker 2: Our next team up, mister Hughes, is I believe your

1015
00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:21,960
team to take us through.

1016
00:46:22,599 --> 00:46:25,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Golden State Warriors come in at forty three

1017
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:29,639
and a half for an over under. Here a lot

1018
00:46:29,679 --> 00:46:33,159
of lineup questions. Apparently that's the big narrative right now,

1019
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:36,519
the Jonathan Kaminga extension, the will they won't they? So

1020
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:40,400
with those factors in mind and any others you want

1021
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:43,519
to discuss, what are we thinking about the Warriors over under?

1022
00:46:45,039 --> 00:46:48,360
Speaker 2: I went, I don't feel great about this one. They're

1023
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:50,360
one of the toughest team to pegs. I have them

1024
00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:53,239
with forty three wins, so I have them going under.

1025
00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:57,239
I just unless they're gonna make a move. I don't.

1026
00:46:57,599 --> 00:46:59,639
I honestly don't know what the ceiling of this team

1027
00:46:59,679 --> 00:47:03,880
has come constructed is. Because if let's use Jonathan Minga

1028
00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:07,519
as an example, if Jonathan Kaminga actualizes the best possible

1029
00:47:07,599 --> 00:47:11,360
version of himself, okay, great, But what does that actually

1030
00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:14,039
mean for the rest of the roster? Is Andrew Wings

1031
00:47:14,119 --> 00:47:16,760
not playing well or not playing a bunch? Is Jonathan

1032
00:47:16,920 --> 00:47:19,239
Minga actualizing the best version himself well? Playing a ton

1033
00:47:19,239 --> 00:47:21,840
of time? Mix to Wiggins and Draymond Green? Can you

1034
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:24,440
even do that? It seems to be that there's still

1035
00:47:24,480 --> 00:47:27,280
some disconnect within Golden Status to whether they view Kaminga

1036
00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:30,440
as a three or a four. Draymond Green's pretty steadfast

1037
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:32,800
and saying that he's a three. I don't think that

1038
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:36,000
he defensively. I feel like he could be offensively. I

1039
00:47:36,039 --> 00:47:38,920
don't know if I see it. So there's just so

1040
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:42,079
many questions here. And I like what they did over

1041
00:47:42,119 --> 00:47:43,960
the offseason by and large, I like a lot of

1042
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:47,320
their individual pieces. But the West is a beast and

1043
00:47:47,360 --> 00:47:50,199
you have me. Okay, the Clippers are worse. The Grizzly

1044
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:52,599
should be better if they're healthier. Those two kind of

1045
00:47:52,599 --> 00:47:55,119
cancel each other out, and so the lay of the

1046
00:47:55,159 --> 00:47:58,280
land is pretty much the same. Then where are these

1047
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:01,639
all these extra wins coming from? I know they won

1048
00:48:02,079 --> 00:48:05,360
forty six last year, but they weren't. Even if you

1049
00:48:05,480 --> 00:48:07,960
like what they did over the offseason, they didn't have

1050
00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:10,960
one of the most, like Sacramento added DeMar de Rosen.

1051
00:48:11,039 --> 00:48:13,400
Look at what the Timberwolves did on the trademarkt Look

1052
00:48:13,440 --> 00:48:15,920
what the thunder did in free agency and getting Alex Caruso.

1053
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:19,320
They weren't one of the teams that made I think,

1054
00:48:19,559 --> 00:48:20,800
if you want to frame it this way, like I

1055
00:48:20,840 --> 00:48:23,559
think Naji Marshall is probably a bigger swing piece in

1056
00:48:23,679 --> 00:48:26,199
Dallas than a Dmfony Melton in Golden State. Who I

1057
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:28,639
think to me, danfey Maultain's the best player that they

1058
00:48:28,679 --> 00:48:31,320
added this offseason. So is this all coming down to

1059
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:34,760
you think Draymond Green is gonna be more available and

1060
00:48:34,800 --> 00:48:38,199
that Brandon Perjemski is just a lot. It continues to

1061
00:48:38,239 --> 00:48:40,960
develop and that's how they're gonna win as many or

1062
00:48:41,000 --> 00:48:45,199
more games. I'm not at I'm saying that rhetorically. I

1063
00:48:45,360 --> 00:48:48,559
just Steph is older. I think Steph is still a superstar,

1064
00:48:48,639 --> 00:48:50,880
but it's is he a top five player or is

1065
00:48:50,880 --> 00:48:53,440
he a top fifteen? And yes, there's a big difference.

1066
00:48:54,199 --> 00:48:58,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I've got him over but at forty five wins,

1067
00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:03,920
which is to one fewer than last year. And so

1068
00:49:04,400 --> 00:49:08,920
for every scenario you can coct that involves like kaminga

1069
00:49:09,199 --> 00:49:11,519
makes a leap or something close to it, and Brandon

1070
00:49:11,559 --> 00:49:14,320
Pajemski is better and even like Trace Jackson Davis sort

1071
00:49:14,360 --> 00:49:16,039
of makes it so there's not really a question of

1072
00:49:16,079 --> 00:49:18,079
who should play center. Like there's all the you know,

1073
00:49:18,119 --> 00:49:22,880
the depth really matters. You cannot like discuss those possibilities,

1074
00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:24,880
which maybe that gets you to forty eight, forty nine

1075
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:29,800
whatever without acknowledging like this team is drawing Like, look,

1076
00:49:30,000 --> 00:49:33,239
the injury to the best player argument applies everywhere, but

1077
00:49:33,400 --> 00:49:36,360
this team in particular is drawing dead like every night

1078
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:39,920
if Steph doesn't play, because there is like unless Kaminga

1079
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:43,280
and Pajemski are just suddenly like like high end, starter

1080
00:49:43,440 --> 00:49:46,159
level offensive organizers and score, like that's just and I

1081
00:49:46,199 --> 00:49:49,360
don't know, that doesn't seem likely to me. So STEP's

1082
00:49:49,360 --> 00:49:52,519
thirty six, he's never entered a season like since the

1083
00:49:52,639 --> 00:49:55,599
dynasty like kind of started over a decade ago with

1084
00:49:55,719 --> 00:49:59,679
like less like proven supplementary offensive help than he has

1085
00:49:59,800 --> 00:50:04,519
right now now. So like the downside is like it's

1086
00:50:04,639 --> 00:50:08,079
big here. So I think that is reflected in forty

1087
00:50:08,119 --> 00:50:10,159
three and a half Like that that feels that's a

1088
00:50:10,159 --> 00:50:12,719
pretty low over under for you know, the Warriors are

1089
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:15,400
a public team, like not to the Lakers or Knicks extent,

1090
00:50:15,440 --> 00:50:17,840
but like their numbers tend to be inflated because a

1091
00:50:17,840 --> 00:50:21,039
lot of people like them. I'm I'm over, but it's

1092
00:50:21,079 --> 00:50:22,840
like I gotta ignore it, but not by a lot.

1093
00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:28,760
And I'm acknowledging like they have massive downside potential because

1094
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:30,920
all the depth in the world and all the organic

1095
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:33,559
growth from the youth, like just doesn't matter if and

1096
00:50:33,639 --> 00:50:38,159
like if Draymond, for example, is suspended or regresses, and

1097
00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:40,400
or if Steph misses time, he's thirty six, he's gonna

1098
00:50:40,400 --> 00:50:43,440
turn thirty seven before the season's over. Like it's just

1099
00:50:44,039 --> 00:50:46,519
the lift for those two guys is so heavy that

1100
00:50:46,599 --> 00:50:49,760
you if you go over, which I am, I really

1101
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:53,320
don't think you can feel comfortable because because the downside

1102
00:50:53,360 --> 00:50:54,000
is so legit.

1103
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:57,760
Speaker 2: And I know they finished tenth in offense last year,

1104
00:50:58,400 --> 00:51:00,880
but I'm just wondering, like what And this isn't just oh,

1105
00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:03,320
they lost Clay like you did lose Chris Paul. That's

1106
00:51:03,360 --> 00:51:06,360
an offensive organizer guy. And I guess you're replacing Klay

1107
00:51:06,360 --> 00:51:08,960
Thompson with Buddy Heals, so that could let's say functionally,

1108
00:51:09,000 --> 00:51:12,000
that's at least a wash or close to it. I

1109
00:51:12,199 --> 00:51:16,159
just I work like they have one creator. It's unless

1110
00:51:16,159 --> 00:51:18,960
you're trusting Brandon Pajemski to make that leap. Can Jonathan

1111
00:51:19,000 --> 00:51:21,840
Kminga do it? Can Kyle Anderson do it? What are

1112
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:24,199
the lineups you're using Kyle Anderson in? We've seen him

1113
00:51:24,199 --> 00:51:25,760
play five, and I think the Warriors are gonna have

1114
00:51:25,800 --> 00:51:28,239
to use him in that regard. Otherwise I don't know

1115
00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:30,159
what You're not gonna play him with Draymond Green or

1116
00:51:30,199 --> 00:51:32,199
come on, be a bunch, I would think, But then

1117
00:51:32,199 --> 00:51:34,199
you get into can you play can you even use

1118
00:51:34,239 --> 00:51:36,960
a front goal? Let's say Cominga and Kyle Anderson or

1119
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:40,320
Draymond Green and Kyle Anderson with quote unquote floor spacers

1120
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:43,559
all around them. There's upside here, but I think that

1121
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:46,840
as you mentioned that, the real downside, like the potential

1122
00:51:46,880 --> 00:51:49,800
for the floor to fall out from underneath them, feels

1123
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:53,159
like it's more likely than for them to hit their ceiling,

1124
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:55,400
or there's just more wiggle room for them to hit

1125
00:51:55,599 --> 00:51:59,199
a bottom most floor than I just what would be

1126
00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:01,320
the if you told me? I guess this is my

1127
00:52:01,320 --> 00:52:03,440
best way to frame as them Rambley here they feel

1128
00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:05,960
more likely to win like thirty three or thirty four

1129
00:52:06,000 --> 00:52:07,159
games than they do fifty.

1130
00:52:07,400 --> 00:52:10,800
Speaker 1: I was just gonna ask, like, like, so I think

1131
00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:12,559
that's that's the right way to think about it. But

1132
00:52:12,599 --> 00:52:16,320
I was gonna say, like, what's the what's the most

1133
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:20,400
games you could imagine them winning without a crazy I

1134
00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:23,119
guess we didn't really discuss their like potential interest in

1135
00:52:23,159 --> 00:52:25,840
a big like we need another star trade, which is

1136
00:52:25,880 --> 00:52:27,840
pretty interesting.

1137
00:52:28,079 --> 00:52:30,639
Speaker 2: I'm sorry you have to. I really think Mike W.

1138
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:32,719
B Junior put on the performance of the century this

1139
00:52:32,760 --> 00:52:34,920
past offseason. I mean, you were never I know, the

1140
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:37,039
Warriors believe they were close to Paul George and he

1141
00:52:37,119 --> 00:52:40,599
just told chose Philly. I'm gonna push back and say, definitively,

1142
00:52:41,000 --> 00:52:43,960
I'd be shocked if that was the case. Well, so

1143
00:52:44,000 --> 00:52:47,119
the two Larry market and stuff, they were never close

1144
00:52:47,159 --> 00:52:49,039
on their offer doesn't seem like you and which is

1145
00:52:49,079 --> 00:52:51,480
fine if you don't think, but this very much felt

1146
00:52:51,639 --> 00:52:54,599
as a look, Steph, we tried. Here's your extension.

1147
00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:56,960
Speaker 1: It's a little bit of a Danny Ainge playbook where

1148
00:52:56,960 --> 00:52:58,679
it's like, oh, you know, we were close. We just

1149
00:52:58,719 --> 00:53:01,239
you know, like he's that for years, right, or at

1150
00:53:01,280 --> 00:53:03,079
least with Boston. He's kind of taking a different tax

1151
00:53:03,119 --> 00:53:05,440
so they don't make a big trade. What's the most

1152
00:53:05,519 --> 00:53:09,000
games you could have realistically imagine them winning? Is fifty

1153
00:53:09,079 --> 00:53:10,760
kind of your upper upper cap.

1154
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:13,480
Speaker 2: I would probably say forty nine is just my cap.

1155
00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:16,800
I just I don't know, it's so like even there,

1156
00:53:16,840 --> 00:53:18,920
so the lineup that I well, if they put their

1157
00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:23,480
five best players on the court, Kaminga, Curry, Wiggins, POD's Green,

1158
00:53:24,000 --> 00:53:26,280
they didn't even play five hundred possessions together last year,

1159
00:53:26,320 --> 00:53:29,440
but they didn't net rating in the ninety seven percent tile. Now,

1160
00:53:29,440 --> 00:53:32,320
if you're talking about a bench of oh, danthy Melton

1161
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:34,760
is there, and we have Kyle Anderson and Buddy Healed

1162
00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:38,119
and Moses Moody's still good, there's I guess just what

1163
00:53:38,239 --> 00:53:40,199
it comes back to me to square away is so

1164
00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:43,199
we're just supposed to believe that Draymond Green and Stephen

1165
00:53:43,280 --> 00:53:46,639
Curry will both be as available, if not more available,

1166
00:53:46,679 --> 00:53:49,119
while also as good, if not better than last season,

1167
00:53:49,159 --> 00:53:52,199
despite entering the phase of their careers where we can't

1168
00:53:52,239 --> 00:53:54,920
really assume that for anyone who isn't Lebron.

1169
00:53:54,639 --> 00:53:58,920
Speaker 1: James right right, I would say this team has like

1170
00:53:59,000 --> 00:54:02,639
a an over a range, a realistic range, because every

1171
00:54:02,719 --> 00:54:04,800
team like oh, if the you know, if the arena

1172
00:54:04,880 --> 00:54:06,920
catches fire and like, you know whatever, like there's still

1173
00:54:06,960 --> 00:54:10,159
always this crazy Outlanta stuff, but like a realistic range

1174
00:54:10,159 --> 00:54:13,039
of like twenty wins, like thirty three, Yep, I could

1175
00:54:13,039 --> 00:54:15,960
see it, because you it's not unrealistic to say guys

1176
00:54:16,000 --> 00:54:17,960
in their mid to late thirties just fall apart or

1177
00:54:18,039 --> 00:54:20,360
get hurt and don't play. And I could see fifty

1178
00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:22,880
three if it's like, oh my god, Kaminga is like

1179
00:54:23,000 --> 00:54:26,599
that guy, and Jens is that guy, and Moody and

1180
00:54:26,679 --> 00:54:30,519
Wiggins is not terrible Wiggins and you know they're fifty three. Yeah, sure,

1181
00:54:30,519 --> 00:54:32,559
I could see it. It's just this is where I'm

1182
00:54:32,599 --> 00:54:33,800
just kind of smack in the middle.

1183
00:54:33,840 --> 00:54:36,400
Speaker 2: I guess what is it? So what what's the single

1184
00:54:36,559 --> 00:54:40,440
biggest factor that would lift them to fifty or more

1185
00:54:40,519 --> 00:54:44,719
wins as currently constructed beyond Well, let's start here really quickly. First,

1186
00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:47,280
how many games what I need to tell you Steph

1187
00:54:47,320 --> 00:54:50,000
Curry played in if they won fifty or more next year,

1188
00:54:50,079 --> 00:54:53,320
seventy right, at least seventy, Yeah, seventy. So Steph Curry's

1189
00:54:53,320 --> 00:54:56,679
playing in seventy games. What is the second single biggest

1190
00:54:56,719 --> 00:55:00,760
driving factor that would prop or launch them as that

1191
00:55:00,840 --> 00:55:01,559
fifty win mark.

1192
00:55:01,599 --> 00:55:05,719
Speaker 1: It's Kaminga and Pajemski becoming like plus plus starters. Like you,

1193
00:55:05,920 --> 00:55:07,440
they don't need to be All Stars, but they have

1194
00:55:07,480 --> 00:55:10,159
to be guys that are we're talking about as all

1195
00:55:10,159 --> 00:55:12,159
star can Like, oh, they might make their first All

1196
00:55:12,159 --> 00:55:13,679
Star Game like next you know what I mean, like

1197
00:55:13,719 --> 00:55:15,960
in a year or two, is that they would both

1198
00:55:16,000 --> 00:55:18,719
have to be Like wasn't it silly that we weren't

1199
00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:20,840
sure either of them was gonna start before the season,

1200
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:21,719
like that kind of thing.

1201
00:55:21,920 --> 00:55:23,679
Speaker 2: Honestly, the more I talk to you, the more I

1202
00:55:23,840 --> 00:55:26,239
just want to I'm becoming higher on the Warriors, and

1203
00:55:26,280 --> 00:55:28,119
so I feel like this we need to move on.

1204
00:55:28,199 --> 00:55:30,079
I feel like this is what this meaning.

1205
00:55:30,760 --> 00:55:35,639
Speaker 1: Don't let me poison you, all right, Dan? Another another

1206
00:55:35,719 --> 00:55:37,679
tough West team. There's gonna be a lot kind of

1207
00:55:37,719 --> 00:55:40,760
in this range here. The Houston Rockets, they're over under

1208
00:55:40,880 --> 00:55:43,599
is forty three and a half wins they won where

1209
00:55:43,639 --> 00:55:46,519
they win last year forty one, forty one and forty

1210
00:55:46,559 --> 00:55:49,440
one and even five hundred last year? A million young players.

1211
00:55:49,840 --> 00:55:51,920
Are they all going to get better and and smoke

1212
00:55:52,000 --> 00:55:54,280
this number? Or are we going to be conservative? Here?

1213
00:55:55,119 --> 00:55:59,039
Speaker 2: I went under and there's which just feels so stupid.

1214
00:55:59,320 --> 00:56:01,400
I have them bet to be fair, I do have

1215
00:56:01,440 --> 00:56:03,840
them at forty three, so I didn't go oh did

1216
00:56:03,840 --> 00:56:04,320
I go over?

1217
00:56:04,440 --> 00:56:04,559
Speaker 1: No?

1218
00:56:04,559 --> 00:56:08,360
Speaker 2: No, three, forty three I went under. So there I'm

1219
00:56:08,599 --> 00:56:14,440
kicking an improvement and it just feels so stupid, like

1220
00:56:14,519 --> 00:56:18,119
I just because they're there, they should be better when

1221
00:56:18,159 --> 00:56:19,719
you're looking at all these young guys. But I really

1222
00:56:19,760 --> 00:56:23,039
do think that the minutes distribution of it all and

1223
00:56:23,079 --> 00:56:25,159
trying to figure out how to make everyone play together.

1224
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:28,440
It's not that it can't happen. I just don't think

1225
00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:33,400
the Rockets are gonna prioritize winning as many games as

1226
00:56:33,440 --> 00:56:35,559
people think that they should. It feels like we're still

1227
00:56:35,599 --> 00:56:38,400
a season away from them kind of moving on from

1228
00:56:38,400 --> 00:56:40,400
the developmental aspect, from.

1229
00:56:40,320 --> 00:56:44,079
Speaker 1: The trade or whatever. They're like, that's not this year. No.

1230
00:56:44,360 --> 00:56:46,800
Speaker 2: I mean, maybe we're wrong there, but it's just you

1231
00:56:46,840 --> 00:56:49,559
could look can't wit more a'm and Thompson, Alfred Shanggun,

1232
00:56:49,599 --> 00:56:51,719
j'abari Smith, ju You're all those guys should be better,

1233
00:56:51,760 --> 00:56:53,760
But we're also out here sitting well, are they gonna

1234
00:56:53,760 --> 00:56:55,440
be able to find enough minutes to read Shepherd to

1235
00:56:55,440 --> 00:56:57,840
be in the Rookie of the Year mix and maybe

1236
00:56:57,880 --> 00:56:59,639
read Shepherd hurts you if you're playing up a ton.

1237
00:56:59,639 --> 00:57:02,199
I don't know. Oh, there's and there is sort of

1238
00:57:02,239 --> 00:57:04,760
the I don't want to say it's fluky. But are

1239
00:57:04,800 --> 00:57:07,559
we sure that this is going to be a top

1240
00:57:07,599 --> 00:57:10,880
seven defense? Again? I guess if you get better availability

1241
00:57:10,920 --> 00:57:13,360
from Tory Easton and Aman Thompson, why wouldn't it be

1242
00:57:13,559 --> 00:57:15,639
like those are two of your most important Shepard.

1243
00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:18,440
Speaker 1: Shepherd might be a real big plus on defense too, potentially.

1244
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:20,559
Speaker 2: And so just like if you have Jabari Smith junior

1245
00:57:20,599 --> 00:57:22,480
and Dylan Brooks is still there in fred van Fleet,

1246
00:57:22,679 --> 00:57:26,360
there's no reason, there's no real reason this team should

1247
00:57:26,400 --> 00:57:29,039
be worse. And that's where I default to. Okay, progress

1248
00:57:29,159 --> 00:57:32,119
isn't linear. There's the West is going to be just

1249
00:57:32,159 --> 00:57:35,199
as tough, if not tougher, And I just think their

1250
00:57:35,239 --> 00:57:39,719
agenda it still extends beyond the season that we're talking

1251
00:57:39,760 --> 00:57:41,960
about now. Would it surprise me if they traded jail

1252
00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:44,639
and Green? No, But I don't know that they're going

1253
00:57:44,679 --> 00:57:46,840
to if they trade Jalen Green. I'm still not sure

1254
00:57:47,159 --> 00:57:49,360
that it's going to be as part of a consolidation trade.

1255
00:57:49,760 --> 00:57:51,599
Right now, it might just be for picks because we

1256
00:57:51,639 --> 00:57:55,920
want to consolidate our rotation. So and it's just I

1257
00:57:56,000 --> 00:57:57,920
have to believe that they're also going to want experiment

1258
00:57:58,000 --> 00:57:59,679
with certain things. What does it look like when Reed

1259
00:57:59,679 --> 00:58:01,480
Shepherd runs the offense? Does it looks like when A'm

1260
00:58:01,559 --> 00:58:04,320
and Thompson's on ball more and they do? Look? I

1261
00:58:04,320 --> 00:58:06,719
know people don't like to talk about this. It could work,

1262
00:58:06,800 --> 00:58:08,679
but you need to figure out that A'm and Thompson

1263
00:58:08,760 --> 00:58:11,719
Alprin Shangoun fit on the offensive end if you want

1264
00:58:11,719 --> 00:58:14,800
Am and Thompson off the ball. Okay, Like, how how

1265
00:58:14,840 --> 00:58:17,400
much does hanging out in the dunker spot work for you?

1266
00:58:17,440 --> 00:58:19,480
Can he do more as a screen or for al

1267
00:58:19,519 --> 00:58:22,159
Prince Shangun? Is he can he expand his Let's not

1268
00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:24,880
he's not gonna shoot threes, but can he hit more

1269
00:58:24,920 --> 00:58:26,719
of his floaters? Like dribble out of They're gonna give

1270
00:58:26,760 --> 00:58:28,239
him space by the three point line. Off the catch,

1271
00:58:28,239 --> 00:58:30,920
he's gonna dribble into a floater or mid range jumper.

1272
00:58:31,440 --> 00:58:33,679
There's I don't I think I have more? Do I

1273
00:58:34,039 --> 00:58:35,920
do you have more questions about this team on offense

1274
00:58:36,000 --> 00:58:38,280
or defense? I don't. This team is the continent. They

1275
00:58:38,280 --> 00:58:41,039
are stacked. If you told me they obliterated the over

1276
00:58:41,119 --> 00:58:44,320
I probably wouldn't be surprised, but I just think we're

1277
00:58:44,719 --> 00:58:48,760
a season away from them being trying to be Capslock good.

1278
00:58:49,239 --> 00:58:53,320
Speaker 1: So yeah, a couple of things. I'm annoyed that you

1279
00:58:53,960 --> 00:58:56,239
mentioned the progress isn't linear angle, because that was my

1280
00:58:56,320 --> 00:59:00,000
main justification for being under I'm also at forty three wins,

1281
00:59:00,079 --> 00:59:02,519
which is appropriate because you and I are wearing the

1282
00:59:02,559 --> 00:59:05,559
same uniform today, so we have to have the same picks.

1283
00:59:06,239 --> 00:59:10,880
So I think, like it's so easy to look at

1284
00:59:10,880 --> 00:59:13,360
all the young talent and say, well, they're all just

1285
00:59:13,440 --> 00:59:17,199
gonna be better, and like that's the The counter to

1286
00:59:17,199 --> 00:59:19,480
that is like, well, not necessarily, because progress isn't linear.

1287
00:59:19,719 --> 00:59:24,400
I think to expand on that, it's not like even

1288
00:59:24,400 --> 00:59:27,360
if all of them do get better, I do think

1289
00:59:27,440 --> 00:59:32,000
we're we're not considering enough. Like a leap from one

1290
00:59:32,039 --> 00:59:34,320
guy sort of has to come at the expense of

1291
00:59:34,400 --> 00:59:37,079
somebody else because you can't just play all eight of

1292
00:59:37,119 --> 00:59:39,119
these young guys at the same time to get like

1293
00:59:39,159 --> 00:59:42,239
you know what I mean. So, like, okay, Iman Thompson's awesome,

1294
00:59:42,320 --> 00:59:44,400
Like he has to be on the floor, all right,

1295
00:59:44,440 --> 00:59:46,880
So maybe Jabari Smith Junior like plays less or his

1296
00:59:47,000 --> 00:59:49,840
role is diminished or you know read Shepherd's unbelievable. Well

1297
00:59:49,840 --> 00:59:52,800
maybe Jalen Green doesn't play as much, So like there's

1298
00:59:52,800 --> 00:59:55,199
a little give and take. So it can be true

1299
00:59:55,239 --> 00:59:57,719
that all these guys do organically grow, but it's not

1300
00:59:57,800 --> 01:00:00,079
necessarily the case that they can all have these mass

1301
01:00:00,079 --> 01:00:02,440
of impacts just because it's a numbers game. There's a

1302
01:00:02,480 --> 01:00:05,519
finite number of minutes available, Like that's part of it.

1303
01:00:06,760 --> 01:00:08,960
The West being better is another factor, and I would

1304
01:00:08,960 --> 01:00:11,960
all and the scariest part is their point differential was

1305
01:00:11,960 --> 01:00:14,119
that of a forty six win team last year, So

1306
01:00:14,239 --> 01:00:16,599
like maybe that is just the baseline we should have

1307
01:00:16,599 --> 01:00:19,239
been working from. I would like to close by saying,

1308
01:00:19,280 --> 01:00:22,280
we both are saying that the Rockets will be better

1309
01:00:22,320 --> 01:00:23,400
than they were last year.

1310
01:00:23,480 --> 01:00:26,239
Speaker 2: We're just going under that's all. And by the way,

1311
01:00:26,239 --> 01:00:30,039
it wouldn't shock me if they win fewer games they did,

1312
01:00:30,199 --> 01:00:35,280
totally possible. We are onto then the Indiana Pacers. They're

1313
01:00:35,320 --> 01:00:37,679
over under set at forty seven and a half after

1314
01:00:37,679 --> 01:00:42,119
they won forty seven last year. This team's fascinating. Where

1315
01:00:42,119 --> 01:00:42,920
did you end up with them?

1316
01:00:43,480 --> 01:00:46,639
Speaker 1: So I hate that I ended up with an identical

1317
01:00:46,719 --> 01:00:49,679
win total as last year because everything points to them

1318
01:00:49,719 --> 01:00:53,119
being better than that, right, Like Tarius Haliburton wasn't the

1319
01:00:53,159 --> 01:00:57,119
same guy after the early January hamstring. Pascal Siaka will

1320
01:00:57,119 --> 01:00:59,880
be on the team all year. Maybe you get some

1321
01:01:00,119 --> 01:01:03,280
more growth from Nemhart, who was better in the playoffs

1322
01:01:03,280 --> 01:01:06,760
than during the regular season. I'm not we aren't banking

1323
01:01:06,760 --> 01:01:09,679
on this, but maybe Matheren and Walker both take steps

1324
01:01:09,679 --> 01:01:13,320
to being more, you know, bigger contributors to winning. So

1325
01:01:13,599 --> 01:01:16,679
I am under I'm I'm saying forty seven, which is

1326
01:01:16,719 --> 01:01:19,239
the same total as last year, and really that just

1327
01:01:19,320 --> 01:01:22,079
has more to do with I think the Calves are better.

1328
01:01:22,119 --> 01:01:23,920
I think the Sixers are better. I think the Knicks

1329
01:01:23,920 --> 01:01:27,599
are better. I think some of the like you know, six, seven,

1330
01:01:27,639 --> 01:01:29,519
eight nine range teams in the East are going to

1331
01:01:29,559 --> 01:01:31,760
be a little better, and that's gonna just kind of

1332
01:01:31,760 --> 01:01:36,599
offset a potentially better Pacers team and take a couple

1333
01:01:36,559 --> 01:01:39,039
of wins away from you know, Like I think I

1334
01:01:39,039 --> 01:01:41,480
started at forty nine because that felt like the right number,

1335
01:01:41,559 --> 01:01:43,000
and then I just kind of had to peel a

1336
01:01:43,000 --> 01:01:44,480
couple off to drop down.

1337
01:01:45,400 --> 01:01:47,199
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm kind of with you, and this team is,

1338
01:01:47,719 --> 01:01:50,440
if we're being honest, how many how deep do they

1339
01:01:50,480 --> 01:01:54,599
go of players you trust. Is it six seven? I

1340
01:01:54,639 --> 01:01:58,159
think it? So it comes down to I think it's

1341
01:01:58,159 --> 01:02:01,880
probably six. Right, So you have Tyre's Aliburton, Andrew Demhard,

1342
01:02:02,199 --> 01:02:06,199
Pascal Siakam, Turner. I would throw TJ. McConnell and Aaron

1343
01:02:06,239 --> 01:02:08,559
Nee Smith in there, and then it's just okay, what

1344
01:02:08,639 --> 01:02:12,559
is Benn mcmathrin? What is Jaris Walker? Obi Toppin was

1345
01:02:12,599 --> 01:02:14,320
good last year? But what is he in the context

1346
01:02:14,360 --> 01:02:16,880
of a team that's maybe trying to be better defensively

1347
01:02:17,320 --> 01:02:21,159
this year? I there's by the way I went over though,

1348
01:02:21,159 --> 01:02:23,199
I still have them winning forty eight games, just okay.

1349
01:02:23,199 --> 01:02:26,119
Haliburton won't get injured a full year of Pascal Siakam.

1350
01:02:26,119 --> 01:02:27,760
I think wins in the middle of the East could

1351
01:02:27,760 --> 01:02:31,719
be harder to come by this season. It wouldn't shock

1352
01:02:31,800 --> 01:02:34,159
me if they won fifty plus. There's a clear pathway there,

1353
01:02:34,159 --> 01:02:35,960
and I think they have at least a core lineup

1354
01:02:36,039 --> 01:02:38,400
or two. They have core lineups that could be good defensively.

1355
01:02:38,880 --> 01:02:41,559
I still worry if you don't if Jars Walker isn't

1356
01:02:41,599 --> 01:02:44,400
exactly what you're missing on the defensive end. I don't

1357
01:02:44,400 --> 01:02:47,880
know what this team's defensive ceiling is is currently constructed

1358
01:02:47,920 --> 01:02:51,400
because last year, they were in close to the bottom five. Again,

1359
01:02:51,519 --> 01:02:55,599
they were twenty fourth in points allowed per possession. Like,

1360
01:02:55,719 --> 01:02:57,480
you could tell me they'll be better, but how much

1361
01:02:57,519 --> 01:03:00,400
better realistically can they be. I'm a defensive end this

1362
01:03:00,480 --> 01:03:03,119
year and that's good, Like all right. You could say

1363
01:03:03,119 --> 01:03:04,920
that they're going to offset it on offense, but they

1364
01:03:04,920 --> 01:03:08,159
were number two on offense last year. There's not there's

1365
01:03:08,199 --> 01:03:12,079
not right they get anywhere. We're down basically at this point.

1366
01:03:12,280 --> 01:03:14,920
So but I think enough if you think that Tyres

1367
01:03:14,920 --> 01:03:17,000
Halibert and Pascal Siakam are going to be there, and

1368
01:03:17,039 --> 01:03:19,559
those are two guys where there's no reason to just say, oh,

1369
01:03:19,559 --> 01:03:21,920
they're probably only gonna play in like fifty games or something.

1370
01:03:22,159 --> 01:03:25,079
So I I think there'll be a hair better that,

1371
01:03:25,119 --> 01:03:27,639
which is why I went over. I had a tough

1372
01:03:27,639 --> 01:03:31,639
time talking myself into them being like much better than

1373
01:03:31,679 --> 01:03:32,159
forty eight.

1374
01:03:32,480 --> 01:03:34,760
Speaker 1: Though this is one of the first teams we've had

1375
01:03:34,760 --> 01:03:37,119
where the range feels kind of narrow. I think like

1376
01:03:37,199 --> 01:03:39,840
the forty four to like fifty one is kind of

1377
01:03:39,840 --> 01:03:41,960
where we're at and we've had We just talked about

1378
01:03:41,960 --> 01:03:44,159
the Warriors at like a twenty win range potentially.

1379
01:03:44,800 --> 01:03:47,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, and there's just the Benedict Mather and Jaris Walker

1380
01:03:47,440 --> 01:03:49,280
of it all is fascinating because it's all right, will

1381
01:03:49,280 --> 01:03:51,239
they be playing a ton and if they are, is

1382
01:03:51,280 --> 01:03:53,599
it because they're playing well in impacting winning or is

1383
01:03:53,639 --> 01:03:55,960
it because they just don't have well? I mean when

1384
01:03:55,960 --> 01:03:57,280
it comes to Mathroo and I think the Pacers have

1385
01:03:57,280 --> 01:03:59,760
a ton of other options, but you have this equity

1386
01:04:00,280 --> 01:04:03,760
in him, and it's with Jars Walker's partically he feels

1387
01:04:03,840 --> 01:04:07,239
kind of essential, Like his development feels essential to them

1388
01:04:07,239 --> 01:04:08,960
now based off what they did over the off season.

1389
01:04:09,039 --> 01:04:12,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, like he's the way that they broaden their range, right,

1390
01:04:12,920 --> 01:04:15,280
Like if he's that guy, then oh a fifty four?

1391
01:04:15,480 --> 01:04:17,440
Like you know, it's something crazy is and I just

1392
01:04:17,679 --> 01:04:19,119
I don't think that's happening this year.

1393
01:04:19,440 --> 01:04:23,400
Speaker 2: If ever, right, I'll be with you there. Next team up,

1394
01:04:23,400 --> 01:04:27,039
Grant is your Los Angeles Clippers.

1395
01:04:27,559 --> 01:04:30,320
Speaker 1: Uh, Dan, this is a thirty eight and a half

1396
01:04:30,440 --> 01:04:34,159
over under for a team that won fifty one last year. Uh.

1397
01:04:34,599 --> 01:04:38,000
They have Kawhi Leonard, they have James Harden. Do they

1398
01:04:38,000 --> 01:04:40,039
have a bunch of guys that Kawhi Leonard said have

1399
01:04:40,119 --> 01:04:42,400
not stood out at camp? That was fun when he

1400
01:04:42,440 --> 01:04:43,639
said that. I don't think.

1401
01:04:44,599 --> 01:04:48,079
Speaker 2: Video of that what's that? Did you watch the full

1402
01:04:48,159 --> 01:04:48,639
video of those?

1403
01:04:48,920 --> 01:04:50,960
Speaker 1: I assume it was like grossly taken out of content.

1404
01:04:51,639 --> 01:04:53,440
Speaker 2: It wasn't. That's the problem. And so he kind of

1405
01:04:53,480 --> 01:04:55,639
went through the He named them all by name, and

1406
01:04:55,679 --> 01:04:59,760
he wasn't being saying they sucked individually by name, but

1407
01:05:00,400 --> 01:05:02,440
he like he mentioned all of them by names, say like, yeah,

1408
01:05:02,440 --> 01:05:05,239
obviously we have these guys on the roster, but no

1409
01:05:05,239 --> 01:05:08,079
nobody stood out, is what it was just like it

1410
01:05:08,119 --> 01:05:13,199
was probably unintentionally funny, but it was hysterically It's just like, oh.

1411
01:05:13,480 --> 01:05:15,840
Speaker 1: Alright, so thirty eight and a half is a low

1412
01:05:15,920 --> 01:05:19,599
number relative till last year lost Paul George though are

1413
01:05:20,320 --> 01:05:22,119
I mean, I know the answer, but tell me about

1414
01:05:22,159 --> 01:05:23,679
your clippers over underthoughts.

1415
01:05:24,519 --> 01:05:28,239
Speaker 2: I went hard under here and I think you texted

1416
01:05:28,280 --> 01:05:29,960
me this the I'll let you say what did you

1417
01:05:30,000 --> 01:05:31,840
text me? The other Well, just.

1418
01:05:31,840 --> 01:05:34,440
Speaker 1: That like this twenty five pick that they owe the

1419
01:05:34,440 --> 01:05:38,400
thunder that's unfucking protected, could go down as like an

1420
01:05:38,440 --> 01:05:41,960
all time like, oh my gouz, we haven't got to

1421
01:05:42,000 --> 01:05:44,079
the thunder yet, but newsflash, we both think they're gonna

1422
01:05:44,119 --> 01:05:47,559
be really great. You're adding, like what if it's Cooper

1423
01:05:47,599 --> 01:05:50,480
flag if we add Cooper flag to the thunder, Like,

1424
01:05:50,920 --> 01:05:54,599
what that's I think we can we've put it to bed,

1425
01:05:54,639 --> 01:05:57,480
but we could probably put to bed the uh, there's

1426
01:05:57,519 --> 01:05:59,880
two sides to who won the Paul George straight at

1427
01:06:00,079 --> 01:06:04,960
that point, like right right right, unbelievable that that could happen.

1428
01:06:05,519 --> 01:06:10,400
Speaker 2: It's just so if they're I just how many games

1429
01:06:11,199 --> 01:06:13,199
we both went under? Like that was just the I

1430
01:06:13,280 --> 01:06:15,880
have them at thirty one? Yeah, what did you have?

1431
01:06:16,079 --> 01:06:18,840
Speaker 1: Then I'm at thirty and like I think, I mean,

1432
01:06:18,920 --> 01:06:22,719
the the disaster potential is just like staring you in

1433
01:06:22,719 --> 01:06:25,280
the face. It's already kind of started because Kawhi Leonard

1434
01:06:25,320 --> 01:06:28,280
couldn't play with Team USA and is like take the

1435
01:06:28,320 --> 01:06:30,679
comments are like taking it slow day by day, like

1436
01:06:30,960 --> 01:06:32,960
it's like we know how this movie ends, right.

1437
01:06:34,280 --> 01:06:37,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's it's I just my whole thing is

1438
01:06:38,960 --> 01:06:42,280
even if Kawhi Leonard plays, let's say Kawi Leonard hits

1439
01:06:42,280 --> 01:06:44,559
the sixty five game, like, let's just shoo that as

1440
01:06:44,559 --> 01:06:46,400
the threshold because that's for the awards, and I think

1441
01:06:46,440 --> 01:06:49,159
you would say objectively, oh, like that's a good position

1442
01:06:49,199 --> 01:06:51,039
to be. And they had Kawhi Leonard played like he

1443
01:06:51,119 --> 01:06:53,480
was able to make all NBA again or something they

1444
01:06:53,519 --> 01:06:56,559
had that last year, and the Clippers still lost the

1445
01:06:56,679 --> 01:07:00,480
minutes that Harden and Kawhi played without Paul George. It's

1446
01:07:00,519 --> 01:07:04,159
just I don't okay. Westbrook's not there anymore, so that

1447
01:07:04,239 --> 01:07:06,079
might help out a little bit, but when you go

1448
01:07:06,119 --> 01:07:10,039
through those lineups, he's actually not like a mainstay in

1449
01:07:10,079 --> 01:07:12,719
a lot of the most used combinations. So this team

1450
01:07:12,840 --> 01:07:17,280
just feels thin. And they got younger, they got more athletic,

1451
01:07:17,360 --> 01:07:18,920
but like we're kind of talking about, oh, they're gonna

1452
01:07:18,920 --> 01:07:21,559
give Kevin Porter Junior a really big role, It's not

1453
01:07:21,679 --> 01:07:24,000
like a good place to be in the year twenty

1454
01:07:24,159 --> 01:07:26,400
twenty four if you're trying to win basketball games. So

1455
01:07:27,239 --> 01:07:29,719
thirty one feels so low for a team that has

1456
01:07:29,920 --> 01:07:31,960
Kawhi Leonard and James Hardner are still stars when they

1457
01:07:31,960 --> 01:07:34,719
are healthy, they are still stars. And Avita's jubox is

1458
01:07:34,760 --> 01:07:37,280
really good. Norman Powell serves a purpose. There's talent on

1459
01:07:37,360 --> 01:07:39,840
this team, Derrick Jones, Junior, Chris Dunn that'll give you

1460
01:07:39,840 --> 01:07:43,639
more rim pressure, more defense. I just like, I don't know.

1461
01:07:44,239 --> 01:07:46,199
For me, it comes down to this that you are

1462
01:07:46,239 --> 01:07:50,039
banking on Kawhi Leonard being healthy enough to make you

1463
01:07:50,079 --> 01:07:53,760
a good basketball team, And I like, based off what

1464
01:07:53,880 --> 01:07:56,679
we've heard, like to just forget about Team USA but

1465
01:07:56,719 --> 01:07:58,960
to start training camp, I don't know how you make

1466
01:07:59,000 --> 01:07:59,559
that assumption.

1467
01:08:00,119 --> 01:08:03,119
Speaker 1: And I think in addition to that one, I think

1468
01:08:03,159 --> 01:08:06,440
you have to assume that James Harden is at least

1469
01:08:06,440 --> 01:08:09,400
as good as he was last year. And he's thirty

1470
01:08:09,400 --> 01:08:12,679
five and has not been a workout warrior ever and

1471
01:08:13,079 --> 01:08:16,239
is always a guy that like if things aren't going great,

1472
01:08:16,359 --> 01:08:17,880
whether it has to do with his role or the

1473
01:08:17,920 --> 01:08:21,079
team's success or anything like who knows what's on the

1474
01:08:21,079 --> 01:08:25,800
table there right, Like, so I am concerned Tyler's a

1475
01:08:25,840 --> 01:08:28,199
really good coach. There are like like if it's a

1476
01:08:28,239 --> 01:08:31,000
zuboats as good Terrence Man. They have like NBA players

1477
01:08:31,039 --> 01:08:34,319
up and down this roster. I'm concerned that, like the

1478
01:08:34,359 --> 01:08:37,800
group think has captured us and we're not being quite

1479
01:08:37,880 --> 01:08:40,359
critical enough of like, oh, the Clippers are done, they're

1480
01:08:40,399 --> 01:08:43,840
falling off, because that's what everybody thinks. But like, just

1481
01:08:43,920 --> 01:08:48,079
logically looking at it, the way that they beat this

1482
01:08:48,199 --> 01:08:50,800
number just involves too many things that I don't think

1483
01:08:50,840 --> 01:08:53,880
are going to happen. Like I just Kawhi health Harden

1484
01:08:54,000 --> 01:08:55,600
is at least as good as last year, and the

1485
01:08:55,640 --> 01:08:59,000
supporting cast is up for you know, even even Kawhi

1486
01:08:59,039 --> 01:09:01,840
health means sixty five. It's like, all right, that's seventeen.

1487
01:09:01,960 --> 01:09:05,279
Where it's hardening the hardenairs, like trying to be a

1488
01:09:05,319 --> 01:09:07,680
really good West you know, slate of teams.

1489
01:09:07,720 --> 01:09:10,159
Speaker 2: I don't know at full strength. This team is just

1490
01:09:10,239 --> 01:09:14,000
objectively less dynamic offensively than it was. Like you might

1491
01:09:14,000 --> 01:09:16,680
have more athleticism and more rim pressure, but you're not

1492
01:09:16,720 --> 01:09:20,880
as dynamic. Like who's there? Who's your third best creator

1493
01:09:21,239 --> 01:09:25,439
right now? Is it? Is it Kevin Porter Junior? Is

1494
01:09:25,479 --> 01:09:27,479
it Terrence Man? Is it Norman Powell?

1495
01:09:27,920 --> 01:09:32,000
Speaker 1: Yeah? Again, I'm worried that we're just you know, we're

1496
01:09:32,000 --> 01:09:35,880
not We've been captured but by everybody's thought. But it's

1497
01:09:35,920 --> 01:09:38,119
just like I I just don't see it.

1498
01:09:38,439 --> 01:09:41,359
Speaker 2: I mean, five rotations, no great shakes either. We're just

1499
01:09:41,359 --> 01:09:43,640
gonna assume that mobamba and maybe they're gonna see a

1500
01:09:43,640 --> 01:09:46,239
lot of Nicholas Patoum at center. It's just fine, right,

1501
01:09:46,319 --> 01:09:46,920
that's just cool.

1502
01:09:47,000 --> 01:09:49,079
Speaker 1: A guy who is basically out of the league and

1503
01:09:49,119 --> 01:09:51,560
another guy who's how old is Batoum? Is he thirty six?

1504
01:09:51,960 --> 01:09:52,600
Thirty seven?

1505
01:09:53,000 --> 01:09:55,039
Speaker 2: I think he's thirty five at least.

1506
01:09:55,760 --> 01:09:58,079
Speaker 1: I love Batom, but I mean that was a good

1507
01:09:58,079 --> 01:09:58,359
pick off.

1508
01:09:58,399 --> 01:09:59,960
Speaker 2: I thought he was gonna retire. I'm happy still the game.

1509
01:10:00,119 --> 01:10:02,720
Yeah he's thirty five. Yeah, So I'll ask you this,

1510
01:10:03,119 --> 01:10:05,319
what is more likely the Clippers win as many games

1511
01:10:05,319 --> 01:10:08,840
as last year, which was fifty one, or they trade

1512
01:10:09,439 --> 01:10:10,800
Kawhi Leonard n James Harden.

1513
01:10:11,239 --> 01:10:13,800
Speaker 1: Oh man, I think I got to take the trade

1514
01:10:13,800 --> 01:10:15,680
just because I don't. I do not think they can

1515
01:10:15,720 --> 01:10:18,119
win fifty one games, like even a great.

1516
01:10:17,960 --> 01:10:20,560
Speaker 2: One if you trade Kawhi. But then with James Harden,

1517
01:10:20,560 --> 01:10:21,800
it's like you might as well let him come off

1518
01:10:21,800 --> 01:10:24,119
the books. They'll decline his player option. What do you

1519
01:10:24,239 --> 01:10:26,560
get for James Harden? Maybe a teams want to give

1520
01:10:26,560 --> 01:10:29,159
you something and it's expiring contracts. But I would be

1521
01:10:29,199 --> 01:10:31,239
with you there, which is maybe that might be our

1522
01:10:31,279 --> 01:10:34,800
hottest like our most mainstream take is that all the

1523
01:10:34,840 --> 01:10:37,520
Clippers are more likely to trade Harden and Kuhi than

1524
01:10:37,560 --> 01:10:38,600
win fifty plus games.

1525
01:10:39,000 --> 01:10:40,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I don't know. I don't know who's

1526
01:10:41,119 --> 01:10:42,840
I just you gotta find me the person that thinks

1527
01:10:42,880 --> 01:10:44,880
they're winning fifty one games. I just don't know who

1528
01:10:44,920 --> 01:10:45,279
that is.

1529
01:10:46,159 --> 01:10:48,399
Speaker 2: I don't know either. I don't even think they think

1530
01:10:48,399 --> 01:10:49,720
they're gonna win fifty one games?

1531
01:10:49,840 --> 01:10:53,640
Speaker 1: All right, Dan, another LA team here. I was really

1532
01:10:53,720 --> 01:10:57,439
surprised by this number. The Lakers have an over under

1533
01:10:57,439 --> 01:11:00,279
a forty two and a half and the.

1534
01:11:00,319 --> 01:11:02,399
Speaker 2: Juice normally flows to the Lakers. Maybe it was going

1535
01:11:02,399 --> 01:11:03,000
to the Warriors.

1536
01:11:03,000 --> 01:11:03,640
Speaker 1: They made me.

1537
01:11:03,920 --> 01:11:04,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know.

1538
01:11:05,600 --> 01:11:10,159
Speaker 1: This seems low to me, but I mean obviously based

1539
01:11:10,199 --> 01:11:13,680
on our numbers, like not not that low because especially

1540
01:11:13,680 --> 01:11:18,079
for me, where I went, Uh, but what so, how

1541
01:11:18,079 --> 01:11:19,800
do they beat this? How do they fall short of it?

1542
01:11:19,840 --> 01:11:22,000
Where do you land they?

1543
01:11:22,119 --> 01:11:24,079
Speaker 2: I have them beating it, but I have them at

1544
01:11:24,119 --> 01:11:26,520
forty three wins, and they were a team I took

1545
01:11:26,560 --> 01:11:28,199
some wins away from I think I initially had them

1546
01:11:28,239 --> 01:11:31,079
at forty five or forty six. The way they beat this,

1547
01:11:31,359 --> 01:11:34,920
like really beat it would be Lebron James and Anthony

1548
01:11:34,960 --> 01:11:38,199
Davis remain very healthy again. They're starting the five man

1549
01:11:38,239 --> 01:11:40,640
lineup that JJ Reddick outlined from the jump, and none

1550
01:11:40,640 --> 01:11:44,119
of those guys get hurt. And Jared Vanderbilt, who's not

1551
01:11:44,199 --> 01:11:47,840
healthy right now, stays healthy. Gave Vincent stays healthy, and

1552
01:11:47,880 --> 01:11:50,000
that's how you cake in your defensive improvement. And it

1553
01:11:50,000 --> 01:11:53,960
doesn't impact your offense. And next Christy contributes, he's you know,

1554
01:11:54,039 --> 01:11:56,159
flying around, there's a lot of motion and he's helping

1555
01:11:56,199 --> 01:12:01,039
you out there. I just sure I'd like for them

1556
01:12:01,079 --> 01:12:03,680
to hit. Like if we're using kind of forty eight

1557
01:12:03,720 --> 01:12:06,399
wins is just the barometer of Okay, do you belong

1558
01:12:07,000 --> 01:12:09,119
in the top or I mean last year was forty

1559
01:12:09,199 --> 01:12:10,640
nine wins, so you need to get the forty nine,

1560
01:12:10,760 --> 01:12:13,439
let's say, at the top six of the Western Conference

1561
01:12:13,920 --> 01:12:16,199
or forty seven to match up win tober from last year.

1562
01:12:16,520 --> 01:12:18,880
It feels like too many things need to be answered

1563
01:12:18,960 --> 01:12:22,199
in the affirmative for the Lakers to assume that that's

1564
01:12:22,239 --> 01:12:25,279
going to be that their best case outcome is attainable

1565
01:12:25,399 --> 01:12:29,000
because their best case like they have best case availability

1566
01:12:29,039 --> 01:12:32,199
at the top last year in Lebron and ad how

1567
01:12:32,479 --> 01:12:34,479
are we just how is that going to get better?

1568
01:12:35,680 --> 01:12:39,760
Speaker 1: It's not okay, I got no, That is the question though,

1569
01:12:39,840 --> 01:12:42,399
right Like because you can say, well, Gabe Vincent and

1570
01:12:42,479 --> 01:12:46,199
Jared Vanderbilt and like maybe D'Angelo Russell either is the

1571
01:12:46,239 --> 01:12:48,520
guy you need at that position or when you trade him,

1572
01:12:48,640 --> 01:12:50,880
he gets you the guy that you need at that position,

1573
01:12:51,239 --> 01:12:54,720
and and don't connect is like a positively impactful rookie.

1574
01:12:54,720 --> 01:12:57,479
We've like rolled our eyes at that for most the offseason.

1575
01:12:57,720 --> 01:13:01,359
Speaker 2: Notably, we've legitimately named no wings.

1576
01:13:01,359 --> 01:13:04,039
Speaker 1: During this time, so the roster has like even if

1577
01:13:04,119 --> 01:13:07,760
I mean that, I think the fixation is properly on

1578
01:13:08,239 --> 01:13:11,159
the availability of the best players, which was at like

1579
01:13:11,239 --> 01:13:13,800
A plus last year, and if it becomes a B minus,

1580
01:13:14,119 --> 01:13:16,359
then that's where you're in the high thirties as a

1581
01:13:16,399 --> 01:13:20,000
win like in win total. So I went under. I

1582
01:13:20,039 --> 01:13:20,840
went forty two.

1583
01:13:21,399 --> 01:13:21,960
Speaker 2: Like you though.

1584
01:13:21,960 --> 01:13:23,600
Speaker 1: This was I had them and a bunch of other

1585
01:13:23,600 --> 01:13:25,880
teams at like forty five, forty six, forty seven, and

1586
01:13:25,920 --> 01:13:27,880
then I was just like, well, that's that's not gonna work.

1587
01:13:28,159 --> 01:13:31,279
It's got to come from somewhere. I do think like

1588
01:13:31,439 --> 01:13:33,920
there's a fifty win team in here if all the

1589
01:13:34,000 --> 01:13:36,680
luck from last year carries over and also you get

1590
01:13:37,319 --> 01:13:39,319
Gabe Vincent for a full season and all this, you know,

1591
01:13:39,520 --> 01:13:43,159
all the other breaks happen in their favor. But I

1592
01:13:43,319 --> 01:13:47,439
just you can't count on seven What was I used?

1593
01:13:47,439 --> 01:13:49,439
I cited it a million times and stuff I wrote

1594
01:13:49,479 --> 01:13:51,960
over the offseason, but it's like it was the most

1595
01:13:52,000 --> 01:13:54,840
games Lebron had played in several years. It was mightbe

1596
01:13:54,880 --> 01:13:56,840
it might have been a career high for Davis. There's

1597
01:13:56,880 --> 01:13:58,800
like seventy plus for both of these guys, and it's

1598
01:13:58,840 --> 01:14:00,600
just one hundred and forty seven to I think was

1599
01:14:00,600 --> 01:14:03,680
the number seventy six and seventy one. That's not happening.

1600
01:14:04,279 --> 01:14:07,399
Speaker 2: The other thing that's slightly concerning. I don't necessarily get

1601
01:14:07,399 --> 01:14:09,319
caught up in this, but when you have Lebron saying

1602
01:14:09,359 --> 01:14:12,000
that it's not fair to have expectations in JJ Redick's

1603
01:14:12,000 --> 01:14:16,319
first season at the Helm, I'm like, all right, so

1604
01:14:16,399 --> 01:14:18,000
maybe they're just good. Are they gonna try and like

1605
01:14:18,039 --> 01:14:20,600
manage minutes and really plan around the future and be like, hey,

1606
01:14:20,640 --> 01:14:23,159
we're gonna actually really go for age forty one, Lebron?

1607
01:14:23,199 --> 01:14:26,239
Forget about age forty Lebron. I have a question for you.

1608
01:14:26,279 --> 01:14:29,399
I've been waiting for this one. Who is more likely

1609
01:14:30,000 --> 01:14:32,640
well as currently constructed, which team? I guess you already

1610
01:14:32,640 --> 01:14:34,520
said the Warriors will win more games than the Lakers.

1611
01:14:34,560 --> 01:14:36,720
Basically is where you have them. Which team is more

1612
01:14:36,800 --> 01:14:39,239
likely to try and make a trade that elevates their

1613
01:14:39,239 --> 01:14:41,079
immediate ceiling the Warriors and the Lakers.

1614
01:14:42,800 --> 01:14:47,279
Speaker 1: I would guess, Well, it's interesting because you're you're definitely

1615
01:14:47,319 --> 01:14:49,800
not bought in on the Warriors being as serious as

1616
01:14:49,800 --> 01:14:51,920
they've made themselves out to be on that front.

1617
01:14:52,560 --> 01:14:55,039
Speaker 2: Can you explain to me what evidence we have that

1618
01:14:55,079 --> 01:14:57,319
they are as serious as people want them to be on.

1619
01:14:57,279 --> 01:15:02,119
Speaker 1: That fronts news reports. No, I think it's my gut

1620
01:15:02,159 --> 01:15:04,439
reaction is the Lakers are more likely to make that

1621
01:15:04,520 --> 01:15:09,479
trade because Lebron puts pressure on the franchise to do

1622
01:15:09,520 --> 01:15:11,680
stuff like that in ways that Curry never really has.

1623
01:15:11,760 --> 01:15:14,680
And I guess if all things being equal, like we

1624
01:15:14,800 --> 01:15:18,239
kind of know how both guys operate, or at least outwardly,

1625
01:15:18,560 --> 01:15:20,600
maybe Curry puts just as much on he just doesn't

1626
01:15:20,640 --> 01:15:25,199
like subtweet the franchise. Well, so I guess, I guess Lakers.

1627
01:15:25,720 --> 01:15:27,960
Speaker 2: I actually think it's the Warriors in part because of

1628
01:15:28,000 --> 01:15:31,319
what again, those Lebron comments are like seared into my

1629
01:15:31,399 --> 01:15:34,239
brain just not really something that he said before that

1630
01:15:34,279 --> 01:15:36,640
he has nothing left to prove, and people get mad, No,

1631
01:15:37,000 --> 01:15:39,119
like he had nothing left to prove like he does,

1632
01:15:39,199 --> 01:15:41,840
like he's the greatest player of all time. I just

1633
01:15:41,920 --> 01:15:44,800
I'm sorry, Michael Jordan could be in the conversation. I

1634
01:15:45,000 --> 01:15:47,399
just you could talk about the record in the finals.

1635
01:15:47,439 --> 01:15:50,279
He got there a zillion times. My whole thing is

1636
01:15:51,439 --> 01:15:53,920
the Warriors they acted over the offseason, even though I

1637
01:15:53,960 --> 01:15:56,680
think some of it was performative, they actually did make

1638
01:15:56,720 --> 01:15:58,600
additions and changes to their roster. You know what the

1639
01:15:58,680 --> 01:16:01,479
Lakers did. They have to don't connect and they resigned

1640
01:16:01,479 --> 01:16:05,600
Max CHRISTI h I just so I don't buy like

1641
01:16:06,000 --> 01:16:09,239
I and I can't buy into the Lakers really believing

1642
01:16:09,239 --> 01:16:13,159
that there's a much better team in there from last

1643
01:16:13,199 --> 01:16:15,239
year just because of Darvin Ham. Even if you think

1644
01:16:15,279 --> 01:16:17,720
Darvin Ham, let's say he cost them six wins, that's

1645
01:16:17,720 --> 01:16:20,119
such an arbitrary number, but that would bring him to

1646
01:16:20,279 --> 01:16:24,119
fifty three. Are you gonna get let's just say, okay,

1647
01:16:24,239 --> 01:16:27,159
joj Reddick brings that team out. Are they gonna be

1648
01:16:27,199 --> 01:16:29,159
healthy enough to be a fifty three win team that

1649
01:16:29,319 --> 01:16:32,119
was last year? Like, there's just one of Lebron James

1650
01:16:32,159 --> 01:16:34,159
and Anthony Davis is going to miss extensive time. It's

1651
01:16:34,199 --> 01:16:36,399
probably gonna be Anthony Davis, if not both of them.

1652
01:16:36,600 --> 01:16:38,399
And maybe we're wrong. If you told me they played

1653
01:16:38,439 --> 01:16:40,039
in and if I told you they played in as

1654
01:16:40,039 --> 01:16:43,840
many games together as they did last year, what would

1655
01:16:43,840 --> 01:16:45,920
you like nudge up your total to what would it

1656
01:16:45,960 --> 01:16:46,760
still be a fight goal.

1657
01:16:47,640 --> 01:16:50,079
Speaker 1: I'd go over, yeah, I think, I well, I probably not.

1658
01:16:50,199 --> 01:16:52,199
I'd go like forty five forty six, I think just

1659
01:16:52,239 --> 01:16:53,039
because the West.

1660
01:16:52,800 --> 01:16:55,079
Speaker 2: Has one fewer, one too fewer than last year, which

1661
01:16:55,119 --> 01:16:58,520
is wild. The West is brutal. You know why the

1662
01:16:58,520 --> 01:17:01,720
West is also brutal because the Great are kind of

1663
01:17:01,760 --> 01:17:03,880
sort of they're back in the sense that they're still

1664
01:17:03,880 --> 01:17:07,279
snake bitten. That's for sure. Over under forty seven and

1665
01:17:07,319 --> 01:17:09,199
a half. I'm sorry, I keep taking the West teams.

1666
01:17:09,239 --> 01:17:09,880
I apologize.

1667
01:17:09,920 --> 01:17:12,319
Speaker 1: That's okay, I no, So yeah, forty seven and a half.

1668
01:17:13,239 --> 01:17:17,159
This was one for me that, like, I really don't

1669
01:17:17,159 --> 01:17:20,319
feel like my prediction squares with what I think about

1670
01:17:20,319 --> 01:17:23,039
the team. But let's hear from you first, where do

1671
01:17:23,079 --> 01:17:23,840
you have the Grizzlies?

1672
01:17:24,079 --> 01:17:26,239
Speaker 2: So I went under, which means that Grizzlies fan should

1673
01:17:26,239 --> 01:17:28,479
be excited because every time I've gone under, they've went over.

1674
01:17:28,520 --> 01:17:31,079
And the wonder I went over Grant was last year

1675
01:17:31,159 --> 01:17:34,199
and guess what happened. Here's my whole thing with it.

1676
01:17:35,119 --> 01:17:37,600
I could easily see them winning fifty something games again.

1677
01:17:37,920 --> 01:17:41,760
But you're gonna tell me that. Ja Morant, Jared Jackson Junior,

1678
01:17:41,840 --> 01:17:44,079
those guys aren't gonna miss time. Jared Jacks Junior's missed

1679
01:17:44,079 --> 01:17:46,760
time previously in his career, that Marcus Smart isn't gonna

1680
01:17:46,760 --> 01:17:49,640
miss time. We already know Gigi Jackson is gonna miss time,

1681
01:17:49,680 --> 01:17:51,520
and that Vince Williams could miss a bunch of time.

1682
01:17:51,840 --> 01:17:54,079
You're still kind of thin on the wings. Do you

1683
01:17:54,119 --> 01:17:56,239
have enough shooting to open up your half court offense

1684
01:17:56,279 --> 01:17:59,159
beyond Lukunard who, by the way, someone else who's probably

1685
01:17:59,199 --> 01:18:02,159
going to miss time. And then the other thing that

1686
01:18:02,199 --> 01:18:04,960
I think we're not waiting enough, and maybe it's we

1687
01:18:05,279 --> 01:18:07,760
have seen rookies come in and just be immediately impactful,

1688
01:18:08,079 --> 01:18:11,920
including rookie big men. Zaki's just gonna play a crap

1689
01:18:12,000 --> 01:18:14,720
ton of minutes and they're gonna be a lot better

1690
01:18:14,760 --> 01:18:17,239
off for it. In addition to all these injuries kind

1691
01:18:17,239 --> 01:18:19,159
of floating around. We had someone on our YouTube comments

1692
01:18:19,640 --> 01:18:21,680
I just said, this was spicy. I wouldn't predict it.

1693
01:18:21,800 --> 01:18:24,600
They're like, Zach Edy's gonna lead the league in rebounds

1694
01:18:24,600 --> 01:18:27,800
if he gets enough minutes. What but how many minutes

1695
01:18:27,840 --> 01:18:29,720
is he playing to do that? And if you're playing that,

1696
01:18:29,880 --> 01:18:32,640
I thought Zakiyen was gonna play maybe twenty five minutes.

1697
01:18:32,920 --> 01:18:34,920
If he leads the league in rebounds, he's probably playing

1698
01:18:35,000 --> 01:18:38,000
thirty plus. What does that do to your offense? Is

1699
01:18:38,000 --> 01:18:40,399
it gonna be good? I think defensively they'll just be fine.

1700
01:18:40,439 --> 01:18:43,279
The Jared Jackson Junior Zach Edy perring is just so intuitive.

1701
01:18:43,479 --> 01:18:46,520
I'm not worrying about Zach Edy on defense, even relative dislimitations.

1702
01:18:46,960 --> 01:18:50,039
There are just too many question marks with this team.

1703
01:18:50,079 --> 01:18:51,720
And I know you can say you could play the

1704
01:18:51,760 --> 01:18:54,960
health game with every single team. Okay, fine, let's say

1705
01:18:55,000 --> 01:18:57,840
they're relatively healthy, even though at this moment we know

1706
01:18:57,960 --> 01:19:02,079
that they're not. What is the ceiling offensively for them?

1707
01:19:02,159 --> 01:19:04,279
It's just do they have enough to really? I know

1708
01:19:04,359 --> 01:19:07,239
Desmond Bain and Jared Jackson Junior got a lot better

1709
01:19:07,600 --> 01:19:10,000
last year, but this is still a team that, even

1710
01:19:10,039 --> 01:19:14,319
when it's at its best, it's always struggled to generate

1711
01:19:14,640 --> 01:19:18,159
efficiency in the half court. Let's go back to twenty

1712
01:19:18,199 --> 01:19:20,079
two to twenty three when they were what were they

1713
01:19:20,079 --> 01:19:23,039
second in the West twenty second in half court efficiency

1714
01:19:23,039 --> 01:19:24,960
the year before that, also twenty second and half court

1715
01:19:24,960 --> 01:19:27,680
efficiency the year before that, bottom five in half court

1716
01:19:27,720 --> 01:19:31,239
efficiency twenty nineteen, twenty twenty twenty second in half court efficiency.

1717
01:19:31,319 --> 01:19:34,800
The Grizzlies have not had grant an above average half

1718
01:19:34,880 --> 01:19:39,159
court offense since twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, and it's just

1719
01:19:39,479 --> 01:19:41,359
what are the pieces that make you believe that's gonna

1720
01:19:41,439 --> 01:19:43,960
change this year. I guess it just comes down to

1721
01:19:44,359 --> 01:19:47,039
a healthy Ja Morant and Desmond Baine and a healthy

1722
01:19:47,079 --> 01:19:50,760
Marcus Smart and then if Lucnard is stretching the floor, sure,

1723
01:19:51,119 --> 01:19:52,880
but we just named a lot of variables that are

1724
01:19:52,920 --> 01:19:55,680
just a healthy Ja Morant and Marcus Smart and a

1725
01:19:55,680 --> 01:20:00,199
healthy Lucunar. It's it's just a there's I know every

1726
01:20:00,239 --> 01:20:02,319
team has helped question marks. There are now officially just

1727
01:20:02,359 --> 01:20:04,720
too many here for me to assume they're going to

1728
01:20:04,760 --> 01:20:07,279
resume their fifty win pace. And this is all to

1729
01:20:07,279 --> 01:20:09,880
say I have them under at forty four, and it's

1730
01:20:09,920 --> 01:20:12,520
stung because that's really low. But I think when you

1731
01:20:12,560 --> 01:20:15,319
couple the injury risks with what I still believe for

1732
01:20:15,439 --> 01:20:18,760
some offensive limitations, with the fact that I think they're

1733
01:20:18,760 --> 01:20:21,159
gonna be really reliant on someone who still needs to

1734
01:20:21,159 --> 01:20:24,439
develop in the middle and Zach Edy. Again, maybe I'm

1735
01:20:24,439 --> 01:20:27,199
overweighting that because Zach Edy's a was a four year

1736
01:20:27,239 --> 01:20:29,600
college player. Those dudes come in maybe they can make

1737
01:20:29,640 --> 01:20:32,840
more of an immediate impact. There's just something or some

1738
01:20:32,960 --> 01:20:35,079
things off about this team that is tough for me

1739
01:20:35,119 --> 01:20:36,039
to square away.

1740
01:20:37,439 --> 01:20:40,239
Speaker 1: So I'm at forty seven, and this was another case

1741
01:20:40,279 --> 01:20:44,279
where like I think there's fifty five when upside like

1742
01:20:44,600 --> 01:20:46,439
with this team, and the way that would happened is

1743
01:20:46,479 --> 01:20:49,119
like the games Desmond Bane and Jared Jackson Junior had

1744
01:20:49,119 --> 01:20:52,640
to make offensively last year stick and Moran is just Morant,

1745
01:20:52,720 --> 01:20:55,239
Like he's right back to you know, top ten MVP

1746
01:20:55,800 --> 01:20:58,680
type guy, which is like, I don't know, we're like,

1747
01:20:58,720 --> 01:21:00,479
I think he's a guy that's gonna like when the

1748
01:21:00,520 --> 01:21:03,479
falloff comes, cause his game is so based on athleticism

1749
01:21:03,479 --> 01:21:06,199
and he's small, Like it's gonna come quick. I don't

1750
01:21:06,239 --> 01:21:08,279
think we're we're there yet. Like I think he's got

1751
01:21:08,279 --> 01:21:11,039
two three more like peak, you know, like he just

1752
01:21:11,039 --> 01:21:16,079
physically dominates games with his athleticism levels. The injuries are

1753
01:21:16,119 --> 01:21:19,000
a huge concern, and again this is just like so

1754
01:21:19,119 --> 01:21:21,960
for me, I have the Grizzlies winning forty seven and

1755
01:21:22,000 --> 01:21:23,760
I have the Pacers winning forty seven. I think the

1756
01:21:23,760 --> 01:21:26,000
Grizzlies are a way better team than the Pacers. It's

1757
01:21:26,079 --> 01:21:28,359
just like when you're gaming out the West and you're

1758
01:21:28,359 --> 01:21:30,680
trying to you get this far into the over unders.

1759
01:21:30,720 --> 01:21:33,279
We're more than halfway through. You start looking at like, well,

1760
01:21:33,279 --> 01:21:35,119
where do I think the Grizzlies are going to fall?

1761
01:21:35,520 --> 01:21:37,159
And it's like, well, if I give him fifty five,

1762
01:21:37,279 --> 01:21:39,000
I think I have him winning the conference or like

1763
01:21:39,039 --> 01:21:41,239
second in the conference that I don't see. So like

1764
01:21:41,640 --> 01:21:44,159
if I think Teams X, Y and Z or you know,

1765
01:21:44,239 --> 01:21:46,479
fifty two to fifty one forty nine, it's like, well,

1766
01:21:46,479 --> 01:21:48,279
Memphis I don't think is better than any of them,

1767
01:21:48,279 --> 01:21:50,560
so I just have to move him down and peeling

1768
01:21:50,560 --> 01:21:53,479
off wins. So like I'm higher on him than you are,

1769
01:21:53,560 --> 01:21:57,079
I think, but like I still I'm technically under and

1770
01:21:57,119 --> 01:21:59,520
I hate it because I just think the Grizzlies have

1771
01:21:59,640 --> 01:22:03,680
such potential to beat that number. It's just that the

1772
01:22:03,680 --> 01:22:06,399
West is hard, and like the downside's real, right, like

1773
01:22:06,439 --> 01:22:09,119
the health stuff, And it's if the health stuff weren't

1774
01:22:09,119 --> 01:22:12,199
already happening, I think I probably would have gone over.

1775
01:22:12,800 --> 01:22:15,039
But it's just like, oh no, here, it's go here

1776
01:22:15,079 --> 01:22:17,319
we go again. I think that's that scared me a

1777
01:22:17,359 --> 01:22:17,760
little bit.

1778
01:22:18,239 --> 01:22:21,439
Speaker 2: That brings us to the Miami Heat. They're over unders

1779
01:22:21,479 --> 01:22:23,560
forty four and a half grant, where do you land

1780
01:22:23,720 --> 01:22:24,560
with this team?

1781
01:22:26,239 --> 01:22:29,439
Speaker 1: So I'm over. I'll just spoil it there, but this

1782
01:22:29,640 --> 01:22:33,960
was really hard, Like I I think, like, and again

1783
01:22:34,239 --> 01:22:36,279
I'm not saying you did this, but I could be

1784
01:22:36,560 --> 01:22:39,720
so easily persuaded that like, yeah, forty nine, no problem.

1785
01:22:40,439 --> 01:22:42,800
I have at forty five, so just barely beating it.

1786
01:22:43,239 --> 01:22:45,520
But if you just go down the list and say, like, Okay,

1787
01:22:45,600 --> 01:22:47,640
Jimmy Butler's all business this year, and so it is

1788
01:22:47,640 --> 01:22:50,399
Tyler Herro. He also got a haircut, so that means

1789
01:22:50,439 --> 01:22:52,239
you're all business, and then bam out of Bayo. We

1790
01:22:52,279 --> 01:22:55,159
love him and Terry full season of Terry Rogier and

1791
01:22:55,199 --> 01:22:58,279
like maybe the whole we don't you know, really bring

1792
01:22:58,319 --> 01:23:02,479
it regular season wise. Talking to Butler specifically, maybe there's

1793
01:23:02,520 --> 01:23:05,760
been enough of that and that changes. I just I

1794
01:23:05,800 --> 01:23:08,319
do think that Butler is at an age where some

1795
01:23:08,359 --> 01:23:11,520
slippage is real. The availability that pat Riley pointed out

1796
01:23:11,520 --> 01:23:14,560
pretty publicly is that's just the thing that's he didn't

1797
01:23:14,560 --> 01:23:17,720
make that up. And I think in.

1798
01:23:17,680 --> 01:23:21,199
Speaker 2: Jimmy Butler's comments on those comments, he shows up late

1799
01:23:21,239 --> 01:23:23,039
to media day and he's talking about how he just

1800
01:23:23,039 --> 01:23:25,359
wants to be more available, and Pat was right, yeah,

1801
01:23:25,399 --> 01:23:27,600
And I'm like, I kind of vibe it, like I

1802
01:23:27,680 --> 01:23:29,520
think that that's like I don't think it was him

1803
01:23:29,560 --> 01:23:31,760
being passive aggressive. I was just I think I kind

1804
01:23:31,760 --> 01:23:32,319
of vibe it.

1805
01:23:33,239 --> 01:23:36,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I I think like, again, that's why I

1806
01:23:36,119 --> 01:23:39,479
could see I could see them being fourth in the

1807
01:23:39,520 --> 01:23:43,399
East or whatever. But I do think that again, the

1808
01:23:43,439 --> 01:23:46,239
offense is going to be a problem because it's depends

1809
01:23:46,279 --> 01:23:48,239
like way too much on Tyler hero who but like,

1810
01:23:48,279 --> 01:23:50,079
by the way, like even when he's been healthy and

1811
01:23:50,119 --> 01:23:53,000
on the floor, like he actually has not been like

1812
01:23:53,039 --> 01:23:56,640
the needle mover offensively that they like the makeup of

1813
01:23:56,680 --> 01:23:59,039
the roster would suggest that he is or needs to

1814
01:23:59,079 --> 01:24:02,560
be like the Dawn off stuff is pretty balanced whether

1815
01:24:02,600 --> 01:24:06,479
he's out there or not. So I'm factoring in the

1816
01:24:06,479 --> 01:24:09,800
injury stuff, pricing in whatever might happen with Butler. We

1817
01:24:09,840 --> 01:24:12,439
have to acknowledge that like they might trade him or

1818
01:24:12,479 --> 01:24:15,800
he might you know, things might go Minnesota sideways potentially,

1819
01:24:15,880 --> 01:24:19,640
like not likely, but possible. So I'm over, but it's

1820
01:24:19,880 --> 01:24:21,000
you know, by half a.

1821
01:24:20,960 --> 01:24:23,800
Speaker 2: Win here I went over as well. I went to

1822
01:24:23,880 --> 01:24:26,960
forty six with them, I believe, And which is the

1823
01:24:27,000 --> 01:24:28,800
exact same number they had last year, and I'm kind

1824
01:24:28,800 --> 01:24:32,279
of just like bo will carve out wins from this team.

1825
01:24:32,399 --> 01:24:34,119
I do think that I don't know if I would

1826
01:24:34,119 --> 01:24:37,039
expect offensive progression. They're still way too reliant on Jimmy

1827
01:24:37,079 --> 01:24:39,159
Butler in that sense. But if you have a healthy

1828
01:24:39,159 --> 01:24:41,960
Tyler Hero on Terry Rozier, that's a ton of floor space.

1829
01:24:42,000 --> 01:24:45,600
Saying BAM has continued to get incrementally better, I am

1830
01:24:45,640 --> 01:24:48,039
curious what the offense like is there? What is the

1831
01:24:48,079 --> 01:24:50,800
lineup structure that you can build to where you are

1832
01:24:50,960 --> 01:24:53,680
net positive when Jimmy Butler's off the court, or like

1833
01:24:53,720 --> 01:24:55,680
at least putting up a functional offense, But you might

1834
01:24:55,720 --> 01:24:58,399
be still so good defensively it doesn't matter. I think

1835
01:24:58,399 --> 01:25:02,159
it's slightly concerning that the Heat had an offensive rating

1836
01:25:02,159 --> 01:25:04,359
in the twelve percent tile last year and BAM played

1837
01:25:04,359 --> 01:25:06,479
without Butler, and I don't know. I mean, again, if

1838
01:25:06,479 --> 01:25:08,319
you have both Hero and Rosier, but if you're playing

1839
01:25:08,359 --> 01:25:11,159
them during those stretches, what does the defense look like.

1840
01:25:11,239 --> 01:25:13,920
You are also asking Hayward high Smith to take on

1841
01:25:14,039 --> 01:25:16,000
a bigger role this year, I assume Nakole Yovitch will

1842
01:25:16,000 --> 01:25:18,600
be taking on even more of a bigger role. I

1843
01:25:18,640 --> 01:25:21,840
think there are enough interesting pieces here. It's what I

1844
01:25:21,960 --> 01:25:24,720
struggle with is and maybe we're guilty of this like

1845
01:25:24,800 --> 01:25:26,239
kind of up and down when we're talking about the

1846
01:25:26,279 --> 01:25:28,960
Lakers and the Warriors, is when is the right time,

1847
01:25:29,239 --> 01:25:31,880
even if you haven't seen it, to like assume there's

1848
01:25:31,920 --> 01:25:35,319
going to be real regression from these aging stars, whether

1849
01:25:35,359 --> 01:25:38,359
it's Lebron, whether it's Steph, whether it's Jimmy Butler, whether

1850
01:25:38,359 --> 01:25:40,359
it's a Damian Lillard, who will probably talk about in

1851
01:25:40,800 --> 01:25:44,199
a second. I just think there's enough guys that could

1852
01:25:44,279 --> 01:25:46,479
get better off that sort of special heat sauce, whether

1853
01:25:46,520 --> 01:25:50,000
it's high Smith, what Himahawk is junior of course Khalil

1854
01:25:50,000 --> 01:25:52,840
whare I see is fascinating to me. I think, if

1855
01:25:52,840 --> 01:25:55,359
nothing else, this team's games will be ugly. I don't

1856
01:25:55,359 --> 01:25:57,079
know if they're built to play any faster, because they

1857
01:25:57,079 --> 01:25:59,720
don't play particularly fast. They might be ugly, but they

1858
01:25:59,760 --> 01:26:01,840
still should be able to defend their asses off when

1859
01:26:01,840 --> 01:26:04,560
you look at the personnel that they have, and if

1860
01:26:04,560 --> 01:26:09,199
you could just get better availability from Jimmy Butler, like

1861
01:26:09,279 --> 01:26:11,800
two of Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier. When

1862
01:26:11,840 --> 01:26:13,680
looking at what happened with his neck towards the end

1863
01:26:13,720 --> 01:26:15,840
of last season. I think that's enough to be where

1864
01:26:15,880 --> 01:26:18,840
you're at last year, which would clearly over on this

1865
01:26:19,079 --> 01:26:20,800
And that's just kind of where I land with Miami.

1866
01:26:21,159 --> 01:26:24,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, similar, similar, thinking the Bucks.

1867
01:26:24,159 --> 01:26:26,800
Speaker 2: At fifty point five, mister Grant Hughes, I think this

1868
01:26:26,880 --> 01:26:28,720
is one where we differ. So I'm excited. Tell me

1869
01:26:28,760 --> 01:26:29,880
where your thoughts are with this team.

1870
01:26:29,920 --> 01:26:32,039
Speaker 1: I have to find my number. Oh yeah, okay, So

1871
01:26:32,880 --> 01:26:36,119
I so I think Damian Lillard is gonna be better.

1872
01:26:36,760 --> 01:26:38,960
I think the off court adjustment, like went through a

1873
01:26:38,960 --> 01:26:40,239
divorce like all that stuff.

1874
01:26:40,600 --> 01:26:42,840
Speaker 2: He's also missing, by the way, I'm sorry.

1875
01:26:42,600 --> 01:26:44,520
Speaker 1: You know right, I know where you're going. Go ahead, Okay,

1876
01:26:44,520 --> 01:26:44,800
go ahead.

1877
01:26:44,800 --> 01:26:46,000
Speaker 2: If you were gonna make the point to make your so.

1878
01:26:46,079 --> 01:26:47,840
Speaker 1: No, no, no, this is your point.

1879
01:26:48,119 --> 01:26:50,640
Speaker 2: He was missing open threes like this is That's not

1880
01:26:50,720 --> 01:26:53,399
a sign of oh, like man, Dame's getting old. Like no,

1881
01:26:53,479 --> 01:26:55,359
this wasn't oh Dame couldn't get into the lane or

1882
01:26:55,399 --> 01:26:58,359
finish anything on drives. This was Damian Lillard was missing

1883
01:26:58,399 --> 01:27:00,520
a shot that basketball players in their where he's could

1884
01:27:00,560 --> 01:27:03,199
make and that's not going to continue. I'm sorry, I know, I.

1885
01:27:03,720 --> 01:27:06,119
Speaker 1: Totally agree with that, and I think he will be better.

1886
01:27:06,960 --> 01:27:10,159
I think it's equally, if not more likely that the

1887
01:27:10,239 --> 01:27:14,159
Chris Middleton Brook Lopez combo is like worse enough that

1888
01:27:14,239 --> 01:27:18,520
it offsets that. Right. So, like the Middleton dual ankle

1889
01:27:18,560 --> 01:27:21,439
surgery is the pretty persistent you know, oh, we're ramping

1890
01:27:21,520 --> 01:27:23,279
him up, We're ramping them up, and then like the

1891
01:27:23,359 --> 01:27:26,079
ramp up yields minute totals in the twenties and we're

1892
01:27:26,119 --> 01:27:29,359
just like, okay, so, and he's still critically important to

1893
01:27:29,399 --> 01:27:33,079
this team. Now that's typically discussed in the context of

1894
01:27:33,119 --> 01:27:35,079
like can they win a championship, We're just talking about

1895
01:27:35,119 --> 01:27:37,920
how many regular season games are they gonna win. I think,

1896
01:27:37,920 --> 01:27:41,119
if anything, Chris Middleton will be treated like very carefully

1897
01:27:41,159 --> 01:27:43,560
and not make a huge impact during the year. So

1898
01:27:43,640 --> 01:27:46,920
even if he is, you know, looking pretty good, maybe

1899
01:27:46,960 --> 01:27:48,960
he's not allowed to play as much as you might

1900
01:27:49,000 --> 01:27:52,600
need to beat this fifty point five brook Lopez is

1901
01:27:53,319 --> 01:27:55,640
way past the age where you'd say this guy is

1902
01:27:55,640 --> 01:27:59,319
gonna fall off. Has been super durable the last two years.

1903
01:27:59,359 --> 01:28:03,039
After some pretty scary back stuff three years ago. Just

1904
01:28:03,079 --> 01:28:05,840
at some point that you were asking, like, when should

1905
01:28:05,840 --> 01:28:08,880
we expect these older guys to slip? I'm going under

1906
01:28:08,880 --> 01:28:12,119
at forty nine wins here, just because I think that

1907
01:28:12,319 --> 01:28:15,760
should be the likeliest outcome for a couple of really

1908
01:28:15,800 --> 01:28:18,439
key guys on the bucks. I also don't believe in

1909
01:28:18,479 --> 01:28:21,159
Doc Rivers as like the guy to sort this mess out,

1910
01:28:21,800 --> 01:28:23,800
because we got a pretty large sample last year and

1911
01:28:23,880 --> 01:28:26,840
it wasn't any better than what Adrian Griffin got fired

1912
01:28:26,840 --> 01:28:32,000
for record wise, So I don't like going under because

1913
01:28:32,000 --> 01:28:36,399
I think Giannis sets such a high floor. But even

1914
01:28:36,479 --> 01:28:38,399
he's someone like now you would have known it last

1915
01:28:38,479 --> 01:28:41,560
year career high true shooting, second year of over thirty

1916
01:28:41,560 --> 01:28:45,279
points a game, still awesome defensively, even he's someone that

1917
01:28:45,319 --> 01:28:47,000
we're at the point where like a lot of his

1918
01:28:47,079 --> 01:28:50,039
game is based on athleticism, it's not just effort and

1919
01:28:50,119 --> 01:28:54,399
like skill, tiny slippage there, because if Giannis isn't like

1920
01:28:55,159 --> 01:28:58,560
top five MVP, then I'm not sure where you're getting

1921
01:28:58,600 --> 01:29:01,159
over fifty wins here with with this team. So there's

1922
01:29:01,199 --> 01:29:04,640
just like a lot of ways to like inject a

1923
01:29:04,640 --> 01:29:06,880
little doubt. And I bought enough of them to go under.

1924
01:29:07,600 --> 01:29:09,800
Speaker 2: I say we differ. I went over, but I went

1925
01:29:09,840 --> 01:29:12,159
over with fifty. Oh wait, did I go under? That's

1926
01:29:12,199 --> 01:29:14,960
a typo. I went over at fifty one wins, I

1927
01:29:14,960 --> 01:29:18,279
believe I have them taken it for so yeah, this

1928
01:29:18,439 --> 01:29:19,760
is I would agree with everything.

1929
01:29:19,840 --> 01:29:21,840
Speaker 1: No, you're under. You got them for fifty. I'm looking

1930
01:29:21,880 --> 01:29:22,520
at it right now.

1931
01:29:23,199 --> 01:29:25,039
Speaker 2: I am at fifty all right, I went under so

1932
01:29:25,199 --> 01:29:27,039
look at that. I could see them easily if we

1933
01:29:27,079 --> 01:29:31,760
didn't differ at all. So I think you outlaid all

1934
01:29:31,760 --> 01:29:34,960
my concerns. My other thing that even if they're healthy,

1935
01:29:35,039 --> 01:29:38,079
how many how many players deep do they go that

1936
01:29:38,119 --> 01:29:40,720
you trust? I asked the same question with I don't

1937
01:29:40,720 --> 01:29:44,000
even remember which team it was now, was it the Clippers? Whatever?

1938
01:29:44,079 --> 01:29:47,279
But how many? I think you can argue six if

1939
01:29:47,319 --> 01:29:50,279
you want to include Bobby Portis plus the starting five

1940
01:29:50,319 --> 01:29:52,800
and after that it's okay. The Lownwright and torn and

1941
01:29:52,800 --> 01:29:55,119
Prints at the minimum is good. How much do you

1942
01:29:55,159 --> 01:29:58,159
trust them? Are you going to get real minutes from

1943
01:29:58,680 --> 01:30:03,000
aj Green or Tyler's the rookie Tyler Smith? Does Pat

1944
01:30:03,039 --> 01:30:05,479
Connton play better this year? Is the marje On Bochamp

1945
01:30:06,239 --> 01:30:09,159
like era over before it even could have potentially began?

1946
01:30:09,279 --> 01:30:13,600
And if we're at a point where you're saying, okay, Millard, Giannis, Brook,

1947
01:30:13,640 --> 01:30:17,239
Lopez and Middleton have all had their best seasons already,

1948
01:30:17,279 --> 01:30:19,680
their best days are behind I'm not saying regression, but

1949
01:30:19,760 --> 01:30:22,640
their best days are behind them. And now we're starting

1950
01:30:22,680 --> 01:30:26,680
to get into the bench and it's okay. I still

1951
01:30:26,680 --> 01:30:28,279
want to say this is a fifty win team and

1952
01:30:28,319 --> 01:30:30,000
I would believe it. I thought I went over so

1953
01:30:30,039 --> 01:30:32,039
you can see where I'm at with the Bucks. I

1954
01:30:32,039 --> 01:30:34,640
probably ended up pulling a win from them last minute

1955
01:30:34,640 --> 01:30:38,960
to give to someone else. I just there's more drop

1956
01:30:39,000 --> 01:30:44,039
off potential here and they could wind up I'm just wondering.

1957
01:30:44,079 --> 01:30:45,720
I also wonder how much of a focus will be

1958
01:30:45,800 --> 01:30:48,600
to win regular season games. They could just decide, like,

1959
01:30:49,119 --> 01:30:51,159
will finish top six, and we think we can match

1960
01:30:51,239 --> 01:30:53,119
up with anyone in the playoffs and beat them, and hey,

1961
01:30:53,399 --> 01:30:55,159
you look at their top five guys, you're probably right,

1962
01:30:55,159 --> 01:30:57,000
Like that's starting lineup, if everyone's healthy, is going to

1963
01:30:57,039 --> 01:30:57,520
be a killer.

1964
01:30:57,880 --> 01:31:00,119
Speaker 1: Great point. This is a team that, like I, I

1965
01:31:00,159 --> 01:31:02,840
think we're both uncomfortable going under because we both have

1966
01:31:02,920 --> 01:31:04,840
so much respect for Giannis and think he's so great

1967
01:31:04,880 --> 01:31:07,520
and believe that Lillard will bounce back. But it's like

1968
01:31:07,880 --> 01:31:09,840
this just isn't a team that's going to be chasing

1969
01:31:09,880 --> 01:31:13,039
regular season wins because their issues in the postseason have

1970
01:31:13,119 --> 01:31:15,640
been health like these first round outs have been health

1971
01:31:15,680 --> 01:31:18,319
related for the most part. So it's like if they

1972
01:31:18,359 --> 01:31:20,680
get in with forty six wins, then they're just like,

1973
01:31:20,680 --> 01:31:23,199
we'll take our chances with a healthy Dame and Giannis

1974
01:31:23,199 --> 01:31:26,000
and Middleton who's been babied all year, and we think

1975
01:31:26,039 --> 01:31:30,199
we can beat anyone. So I would say, I'll speak

1976
01:31:30,279 --> 01:31:32,560
for you, like, I think we believe them to be

1977
01:31:32,600 --> 01:31:35,960
a better like title threat than a team that could

1978
01:31:35,960 --> 01:31:38,159
like win the East in the regular season, right, Like

1979
01:31:38,199 --> 01:31:39,199
I don't think that's the goal.

1980
01:31:39,279 --> 01:31:43,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, this next team, grant body, all.

1981
01:31:43,920 --> 01:31:46,560
Speaker 1: Right, So the Minnesota Timberwolves come in with an over

1982
01:31:46,640 --> 01:31:49,800
under a fifty two and a half, which is down

1983
01:31:49,960 --> 01:31:52,279
from the fifty six games they won last year with

1984
01:31:52,319 --> 01:31:55,680
the differential of a fifty eight win team, best defense

1985
01:31:55,720 --> 01:31:58,720
in the league probably not going to change. If it does,

1986
01:31:58,840 --> 01:32:00,279
they'll be second or third best.

1987
01:32:00,840 --> 01:32:02,960
Speaker 2: And I know we proved that Karl Anthony Towns was

1988
01:32:03,000 --> 01:32:04,239
the secret sauce behind everything.

1989
01:32:04,279 --> 01:32:07,760
Speaker 1: That was the reason Rudy Gobert is washed. France was

1990
01:32:07,840 --> 01:32:10,079
right to bench him all the time in the Olympics.

1991
01:32:10,640 --> 01:32:13,119
So this one's fascinating because we have the cat for

1992
01:32:13,199 --> 01:32:16,279
Julius Randall and de Vincenzo trade. We have the Anthony

1993
01:32:16,359 --> 01:32:19,640
Edwards potential ascent, We've got, like, just so, where are

1994
01:32:19,640 --> 01:32:21,239
you on the fifty two and a half for them?

1995
01:32:21,960 --> 01:32:24,880
Speaker 2: I went over. I ended up pulling wins from them though,

1996
01:32:24,920 --> 01:32:26,840
because I initially had them. I think at like fifty

1997
01:32:26,960 --> 01:32:30,079
six or fifty seven. It might have been fifty six again,

1998
01:32:30,439 --> 01:32:32,600
but I was just kind of thinking that I went

1999
01:32:32,640 --> 01:32:35,119
with fifty three, so I have them over. I'm just

2000
01:32:35,199 --> 01:32:39,279
wondering it's going to take time. This wouldn't be I'll

2001
01:32:39,279 --> 01:32:41,279
say it this way. It wouldn't shock me if this

2002
01:32:41,319 --> 01:32:43,640
is a team where everyone's demanding they tear it down

2003
01:32:43,720 --> 01:32:45,720
or they're hitting the panic button like fifteen games in

2004
01:32:45,800 --> 01:32:49,119
the season, because it takes a while to implement Julius

2005
01:32:49,199 --> 01:32:51,800
Randall and figure out which lineups to run him in,

2006
01:32:51,920 --> 01:32:54,159
how you're going to use him. The more I thought

2007
01:32:54,199 --> 01:32:58,800
about the trade, I do think that the Knicks took

2008
01:32:58,840 --> 01:33:01,720
on more risk and the Timberwolves when you're looking at

2009
01:33:01,720 --> 01:33:04,520
both the short and long term, because I think that

2010
01:33:04,560 --> 01:33:06,880
you could very easily just decided Julie Randall's that poor

2011
01:33:06,920 --> 01:33:09,760
of a fit Rite and Off, don't play him. He

2012
01:33:09,920 --> 01:33:11,800
probably won't opt out then, but then he's just this

2013
01:33:11,920 --> 01:33:15,319
huge expiring contract. That's the worst, worst, worst case scenario.

2014
01:33:15,359 --> 01:33:19,079
But Julius Randall, despite being divisive and rightfully so, he's

2015
01:33:19,079 --> 01:33:21,680
a hard player to fit in. But like he's going

2016
01:33:21,720 --> 01:33:24,039
to have more on blow gravity and if you decide, okay,

2017
01:33:24,119 --> 01:33:26,600
you start him, we're gonna heavily stagger him so that

2018
01:33:26,640 --> 01:33:29,880
he's gonna spend a majority of his minutes running second

2019
01:33:29,960 --> 01:33:32,000
unit heavy lineups, or it's going to be Devincenzo and

2020
01:33:32,039 --> 01:33:35,000
nas Reed will be around him more than Jade McDaniels

2021
01:33:35,000 --> 01:33:37,079
and Rudy Gobert together. Like if so, if you're worried

2022
01:33:37,079 --> 01:33:40,039
about the spacing from that perspective, and so, I think

2023
01:33:40,039 --> 01:33:43,159
there could be a slower learning curt And honestly, I

2024
01:33:43,199 --> 01:33:45,359
wonder if the timing of the trade almost helps them

2025
01:33:45,640 --> 01:33:49,600
because it forces Julius Randall to streamline himself, whereas I'm

2026
01:33:49,680 --> 01:33:52,119
just catching and decision making. I'm not really isolating even

2027
01:33:52,119 --> 01:33:55,000
in these lineups where maybe Anthony Edwards isn't on the court.

2028
01:33:55,239 --> 01:33:57,439
And I also think that while I'm concerned about the

2029
01:33:57,479 --> 01:34:01,560
fit between Randall and Anthony Edwards, ANTHI Edwards is a

2030
01:34:01,560 --> 01:34:04,520
good off ball shooter, and just like like you weren't

2031
01:34:04,560 --> 01:34:09,119
really concerned about the fit of like Kyle Anderson being

2032
01:34:09,159 --> 01:34:11,000
on the court. Sometimes when they have the edwards is like,

2033
01:34:11,039 --> 01:34:13,279
what's the difference here? Like Julius Randall's going to be

2034
01:34:14,199 --> 01:34:17,680
at least I think he does things that they were

2035
01:34:17,720 --> 01:34:19,720
missing on offense. Even if it comes at the expense

2036
01:34:19,760 --> 01:34:21,600
of some floor spacing and you make up a lot

2037
01:34:21,640 --> 01:34:24,359
of that floor spacing with Donte DiVincenzo, I still would

2038
01:34:24,359 --> 01:34:25,920
have liked to have seen them keep towns. I think

2039
01:34:25,960 --> 01:34:28,520
they had a championship ceiling, and this doesn't feel like

2040
01:34:28,560 --> 01:34:32,800
that Boston offseason where the turnover instantly results in a title.

2041
01:34:32,800 --> 01:34:35,159
It feels like it could need more time to marinate.

2042
01:34:35,880 --> 01:34:37,479
I think they're going to be better than this fifty

2043
01:34:37,479 --> 01:34:38,960
two and a half line, but I do think it's

2044
01:34:39,000 --> 01:34:41,600
going to take a little while for it all to

2045
01:34:41,840 --> 01:34:44,439
come together. And the other final thing is I don't

2046
01:34:44,439 --> 01:34:46,479
think this will be as big of a factor because

2047
01:34:46,479 --> 01:34:48,960
they have Julius Randall now, but like, if you aren't

2048
01:34:48,960 --> 01:34:51,279
gonna try and play Rob Dillingham, that's going to be

2049
01:34:51,359 --> 01:34:53,239
something that kind of adds to the learning curve of

2050
01:34:53,279 --> 01:34:54,039
the entire team.

2051
01:34:54,359 --> 01:34:59,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's right. I so I can see

2052
01:34:59,119 --> 01:35:02,720
the like it's gonna take a minute to angle and

2053
01:35:02,760 --> 01:35:05,720
I but I can also see like I feel like

2054
01:35:05,760 --> 01:35:09,199
I understand the theory of how this team could really pop,

2055
01:35:09,319 --> 01:35:14,279
which is like the depth is these guys are eight deep,

2056
01:35:14,479 --> 01:35:18,960
like no question because you like you can have whether

2057
01:35:19,000 --> 01:35:21,479
it's read, it'll be read. I guess like, although I'm

2058
01:35:21,520 --> 01:35:23,159
just like I want to start reading. I want Randall

2059
01:35:23,199 --> 01:35:25,039
in the second unit. That's not gonna happen, I don't think.

2060
01:35:25,039 --> 01:35:26,239
Speaker 2: But you could stagger it that way.

2061
01:35:26,439 --> 01:35:29,239
Speaker 1: You can stagger it. So yeah, but you're you're six

2062
01:35:29,399 --> 01:35:33,520
seven eight right now. Is Devincenzo one of the best

2063
01:35:33,520 --> 01:35:38,479
shooters in the league, Dillingham I guess who like doesn't

2064
01:35:38,520 --> 01:35:41,000
have a heavy lift now? And and Reid who won

2065
01:35:41,119 --> 01:35:41,920
six man in the year.

2066
01:35:42,159 --> 01:35:45,239
Speaker 2: I would actually argue that you're selling because I was

2067
01:35:45,239 --> 01:35:48,039
gonna say the kil Alexander Walker read and Dante DiVincenzo

2068
01:35:48,119 --> 01:35:50,800
for me, Yeah, I mean, I'm trying to think about

2069
01:35:50,800 --> 01:35:52,960
some of the best, Like if you're running out, let's

2070
01:35:53,000 --> 01:35:56,960
say Devincenzo naw read and just think about how you

2071
01:35:57,000 --> 01:35:59,239
can flesh out like those three bench guys together, I

2072
01:35:59,279 --> 01:36:04,479
probably put like Julius and like I throw out whoever

2073
01:36:04,479 --> 01:36:05,560
you want at that. I mean, if you want to

2074
01:36:05,560 --> 01:36:07,640
go Dillingham and really lead into the bench, sure, but

2075
01:36:08,119 --> 01:36:11,640
keep Jane McDaniels out there. Just there's so many different

2076
01:36:11,680 --> 01:36:13,479
ways they could go. And you're right, they're just eight

2077
01:36:13,560 --> 01:36:17,159
deep of guys that even if you don't like Julius Randall, like,

2078
01:36:17,199 --> 01:36:18,800
they're eight deep of really good.

2079
01:36:18,680 --> 01:36:21,520
Speaker 1: NBA right, And this is a little bit the reverse

2080
01:36:21,600 --> 01:36:24,720
of the Bucks, where I think this team is like

2081
01:36:24,880 --> 01:36:27,680
really well constructed for a lot of regular season wins

2082
01:36:27,720 --> 01:36:30,359
because they're just gonna have a bunch of above average

2083
01:36:30,479 --> 01:36:33,399
or like actually just subjectively good NBA players on the

2084
01:36:33,439 --> 01:36:36,840
floor all the time, and you can lose like Nazrid, Okay,

2085
01:36:36,840 --> 01:36:39,119
we love Nosrid gets hurt. Well, McDaniels can play some

2086
01:36:39,199 --> 01:36:41,600
four and you have Julius Randall like Gobert gets hurt.

2087
01:36:41,680 --> 01:36:44,800
I suppose that is like kind of or or diminishes

2088
01:36:44,840 --> 01:36:47,880
a lot. Like your defense is gonna have some issues.

2089
01:36:48,239 --> 01:36:51,319
But like I don't think Anthony Edwards is done getting better.

2090
01:36:52,000 --> 01:36:55,560
I think Jade McDaniels might have another gear and it's

2091
01:36:55,600 --> 01:36:58,520
just the depth and the fit if if they can

2092
01:36:58,560 --> 01:37:01,720
play it right, there's so many configurations that make sense

2093
01:37:01,760 --> 01:37:04,239
to me, and that that will just beat the Pelicans

2094
01:37:04,680 --> 01:37:07,119
on a Tuesday in March, you know, like there's just

2095
01:37:07,399 --> 01:37:09,479
so many ways they can rack up these wins. So

2096
01:37:09,560 --> 01:37:12,119
I'm over. I think I have them at fifty four,

2097
01:37:12,560 --> 01:37:14,199
and this was another team that I was like two

2098
01:37:14,239 --> 01:37:16,560
or three higher that again had to peel some off.

2099
01:37:16,640 --> 01:37:18,680
Speaker 2: So honestly, it wouldn't shock me they just won more

2100
01:37:18,720 --> 01:37:20,520
games than they did because you could argue they care

2101
01:37:20,600 --> 01:37:23,640
more about the playoffs. I actually think they might be

2102
01:37:23,640 --> 01:37:25,920
better built for the regular season right now than the

2103
01:37:25,920 --> 01:37:28,039
playoffs after the trade because it not only that's all

2104
01:37:28,079 --> 01:37:31,239
about the Julius Randall playoff track record totally also with

2105
01:37:31,359 --> 01:37:34,840
some of the Rudy Gobert matchup stuff there. So uh,

2106
01:37:34,960 --> 01:37:36,760
but it wouldn't shock me if they won like fifty nine.

2107
01:37:36,800 --> 01:37:41,720
It just ye next team up, New Orleans Pelicans.

2108
01:37:41,960 --> 01:37:44,039
Speaker 1: Dan, This is a forty five and a half over under,

2109
01:37:44,279 --> 01:37:46,760
which is pretty good for a team that doesn't have

2110
01:37:46,800 --> 01:37:50,680
a center, so and also quite a bit lower than

2111
01:37:50,800 --> 01:37:53,439
last year's total when the Pelicans won, where they win

2112
01:37:53,560 --> 01:37:57,199
forty nine. What are your thoughts on the on your pels,

2113
01:37:57,199 --> 01:37:58,800
they're very much your Pels.

2114
01:37:58,640 --> 01:38:01,039
Speaker 2: Well, I think people a lot of Pelsons haven't gotten

2115
01:38:01,039 --> 01:38:03,640
mad because I've been pretty pessimistic on how they've gotten

2116
01:38:03,680 --> 01:38:07,119
to this roster construction. I'm going over here in spite

2117
01:38:07,159 --> 01:38:09,640
of not loving their setup, I have them at forty

2118
01:38:09,680 --> 01:38:12,880
eight wins and if they eventually make a move to

2119
01:38:12,960 --> 01:38:15,479
kind of balance out what their team should look like.

2120
01:38:15,720 --> 01:38:17,479
The Trey Murphy injury is a bummer. You do have

2121
01:38:17,520 --> 01:38:21,119
to factor in the Zion Williamson injury potential of it all.

2122
01:38:21,520 --> 01:38:24,640
But Zion last year was close to one of the

2123
01:38:25,039 --> 01:38:27,399
like when he was healthy, ten best players in basketball,

2124
01:38:27,439 --> 01:38:29,720
certainly one of the fifteen best players in basketball when

2125
01:38:29,760 --> 01:38:34,239
he was healthy. So I just like I understand this

2126
01:38:34,279 --> 01:38:37,159
team can be dynamic even when they're playing small. I

2127
01:38:37,199 --> 01:38:39,479
think it's encouraging that we saw them start Daniel Tice

2128
01:38:39,560 --> 01:38:41,359
the other night. I don't again, I don't love the

2129
01:38:41,359 --> 01:38:43,319
center set up, but at least shows okay, we're not

2130
01:38:43,359 --> 01:38:45,800
gonna play small out of the gate. And I love

2131
01:38:45,800 --> 01:38:48,079
how people conflate us saying the Pelican is not having

2132
01:38:48,119 --> 01:38:50,479
a center or playing small, or Zion as the big. Well,

2133
01:38:50,600 --> 01:38:53,199
Zion's not gonna play the five. I understand what they're

2134
01:38:53,239 --> 01:38:55,239
gonna do. But that doesn't make me feel any better

2135
01:38:55,319 --> 01:38:57,560
when it's you're trying to make these wings do a

2136
01:38:57,600 --> 01:39:00,399
lot of the big man stuff around him. So I

2137
01:39:00,399 --> 01:39:02,439
think it's encouraging that. Okay, they're not going to start

2138
01:39:02,479 --> 01:39:05,800
small from the jump, and maybe they'll probably close that way.

2139
01:39:06,520 --> 01:39:08,479
I just if this team is going to reach its peak,

2140
01:39:08,840 --> 01:39:11,359
there needs to be some type of a like semi

2141
01:39:11,399 --> 01:39:13,319
significant trade. I mean maybe if you just got a

2142
01:39:13,359 --> 01:39:16,560
center using a smaller salary, sure, if it's Jordan Hawkins

2143
01:39:16,560 --> 01:39:19,119
for Walker Kessler, if there's a framework there that you

2144
01:39:19,119 --> 01:39:20,680
can get to, I probably feel a lot better. But

2145
01:39:21,000 --> 01:39:22,760
in ani likelihood, it needs to be something were well,

2146
01:39:22,800 --> 01:39:26,079
can you reorient around a brandon Ingram trade? And even

2147
01:39:26,079 --> 01:39:27,720
if they can't, I still think they'll be a really

2148
01:39:27,720 --> 01:39:29,640
good team. But I think the best version, if they're

2149
01:39:29,640 --> 01:39:32,640
going to reach contention and blow past forty eight forty

2150
01:39:32,720 --> 01:39:35,239
nine get into the fifty win territory, this will not

2151
01:39:35,399 --> 01:39:37,960
be the team that we see today. I still think

2152
01:39:38,000 --> 01:39:40,479
if everyone's healthy, and this is me like kind of

2153
01:39:40,520 --> 01:39:42,960
caking in relatively good health, I think the de Jente

2154
01:39:43,039 --> 01:39:46,840
Murray edition is going to matter. They could certainly flirt

2155
01:39:47,000 --> 01:39:48,119
with that fifty win total.

2156
01:39:48,399 --> 01:39:51,039
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with that. I'm over by a smaller

2157
01:39:51,079 --> 01:39:52,800
margin than the you I got them at forty six,

2158
01:39:53,279 --> 01:39:57,079
and that really just isn't I think they will add

2159
01:39:57,119 --> 01:39:59,760
a center, and if that comes via an Ingram trade,

2160
01:39:59,800 --> 01:40:02,039
that makes your you know, that just gives herb and

2161
01:40:02,119 --> 01:40:05,760
a healthy Trey Murphy those minutes. I love it. And

2162
01:40:06,399 --> 01:40:08,800
the design injury risk the lack of a center, I

2163
01:40:08,800 --> 01:40:11,279
think Murray, Like, I got pretty far into my thinking

2164
01:40:11,399 --> 01:40:13,000
for on this number before I was like, oh shit,

2165
01:40:13,039 --> 01:40:15,640
they have the Jonte Murray right, Like, I just like,

2166
01:40:15,920 --> 01:40:18,359
it's crazy that that's an afterthought, but it kind of is,

2167
01:40:18,399 --> 01:40:22,520
because you know, everybody's discussing the center stuff like to

2168
01:40:22,520 --> 01:40:26,199
you know, much more frequently. The upside is big, especially

2169
01:40:26,319 --> 01:40:28,199
like what if Zion like just has the best year

2170
01:40:28,239 --> 01:40:30,119
of his career, which is like something you would expect

2171
01:40:30,159 --> 01:40:32,880
from someone at this stage of his career if you

2172
01:40:32,880 --> 01:40:35,159
didn't have the injury history. Maybe that's just over. Maybe

2173
01:40:35,199 --> 01:40:37,600
he's in the best shape ever. Like that's you know,

2174
01:40:37,720 --> 01:40:40,479
that's plausible to me. We haven't seen it really yet

2175
01:40:40,520 --> 01:40:44,920
for a full season, but it could happen. I again,

2176
01:40:45,159 --> 01:40:49,439
like you start trying to slot teams into a hierarchy

2177
01:40:49,479 --> 01:40:51,560
in the West, and it's just like, well, I can't

2178
01:40:51,680 --> 01:40:54,000
put them above Denver can't put them above a minute,

2179
01:40:54,000 --> 01:40:56,119
so you just you know, the winds start falling off.

2180
01:40:56,159 --> 01:40:59,159
But yeah, you know, the four we're both still over,

2181
01:40:59,279 --> 01:41:02,399
I guess is the positive sign here for Pelicans fans.

2182
01:41:02,439 --> 01:41:05,199
And we're generally just like lower on several West teams

2183
01:41:05,840 --> 01:41:08,239
as far as like compared to last year's win totals,

2184
01:41:08,239 --> 01:41:11,119
and I just think that's a reflection of like there

2185
01:41:11,239 --> 01:41:14,279
except for one probably there's most of the teams in

2186
01:41:14,279 --> 01:41:15,840
the West I think on the higher end are just

2187
01:41:15,840 --> 01:41:17,520
going to lose a win or two. I think just

2188
01:41:17,520 --> 01:41:20,000
because there's so much quality up and down the conference.

2189
01:41:20,399 --> 01:41:22,119
Speaker 2: I'm trying to think, Yeah, so I think we've gotten

2190
01:41:22,119 --> 01:41:24,159
past every team the West that will qualify for this.

2191
01:41:24,800 --> 01:41:27,920
The consensus we have as the top four, this is it. Well,

2192
01:41:28,239 --> 01:41:31,720
I mean this isn't a spoiler, so okay, see Dallas, Denver, Minnesota.

2193
01:41:31,720 --> 01:41:34,279
I'm not necessarily it's in that order. Which is the

2194
01:41:34,319 --> 01:41:37,479
team that would be most likely to party crash that

2195
01:41:37,560 --> 01:41:39,159
top four and bounce someone out. You don't have to

2196
01:41:39,199 --> 01:41:41,359
pick who they're bouncing out, but the team we haven't.

2197
01:41:41,079 --> 01:41:43,359
Speaker 1: Talked about one of them yet or two of them

2198
01:41:43,399 --> 01:41:46,119
actually or not just one. I think, I mean Memphis

2199
01:41:46,119 --> 01:41:49,159
is in the conversation, we'll talk about Phoenix as the

2200
01:41:49,199 --> 01:41:49,479
other one.

2201
01:41:49,520 --> 01:41:51,800
Speaker 2: Probably I figure ot about Phoenix. Yeah, all right, actually

2202
01:41:51,840 --> 01:41:54,720
speaking of that is not our consensus top four apparently

2203
01:41:54,760 --> 01:41:56,039
when I went through and didn't mind, so that I

2204
01:41:56,079 --> 01:41:58,319
think that means that we need to move on. So

2205
01:41:58,880 --> 01:42:03,079
Eastern Conference time, New York Knicks over under fifty four.

2206
01:42:02,920 --> 01:42:03,920
Speaker 1: And a half.

2207
01:42:05,279 --> 01:42:07,560
Speaker 2: Grant? Where are you at with your Knicks?

2208
01:42:08,600 --> 01:42:12,039
Speaker 1: Man? Like, so I'll just I'll just spoil it now.

2209
01:42:12,039 --> 01:42:13,399
I know we're not trying to do it this way,

2210
01:42:13,439 --> 01:42:16,359
but like, I'm under, and I hate it because I

2211
01:42:16,439 --> 01:42:19,920
just I think the talent, the top end talent on

2212
01:42:19,960 --> 01:42:23,800
this team is absurd. The reason the main reason I

2213
01:42:23,840 --> 01:42:26,720
went under, I guess there's two is I do think

2214
01:42:27,479 --> 01:42:30,399
that I'm glad we haven't gone to this well quite

2215
01:42:30,479 --> 01:42:32,560
so often in the last several teams, because I think

2216
01:42:32,600 --> 01:42:37,600
it's really specifically applicable here. A Jalen Brunson injury is catastrophic,

2217
01:42:38,520 --> 01:42:42,119
and so I'm pricing that into going under at fifty two.

2218
01:42:42,119 --> 01:42:45,039
If I didn't say that already, And I think there

2219
01:42:45,039 --> 01:42:48,439
are depth issues that's going out on a limb here

2220
01:42:48,439 --> 01:42:50,680
when you trade, you know, multiple rotation guys for one

2221
01:42:51,840 --> 01:42:53,960
I Douce McBride I like, and then after that the

2222
01:42:54,000 --> 01:42:59,000
bench is like, I don't know. So fifty two wins

2223
01:42:59,039 --> 01:43:00,720
is a lot of wins. It's actually fewer than they

2224
01:43:00,720 --> 01:43:03,000
won last year. Or no, it's more they only won

2225
01:43:03,039 --> 01:43:06,399
fifty last year. So I'm I've got nothing to explain here.

2226
01:43:06,439 --> 01:43:07,680
I think the Knicks are going to be better than

2227
01:43:07,680 --> 01:43:09,119
they were a year ago. I just don't think they're

2228
01:43:09,159 --> 01:43:11,439
hitting fifty four and a half they I don't think

2229
01:43:11,520 --> 01:43:13,119
very many teams in the West, are in the East

2230
01:43:13,119 --> 01:43:14,279
are going to get over that number.

2231
01:43:14,600 --> 01:43:17,479
Speaker 2: See I went under as well, and what I didn't

2232
01:43:17,479 --> 01:43:18,960
go under by much? I have him at fifty three

2233
01:43:19,039 --> 01:43:20,960
right now. I was like kind of vastling between Adham

2234
01:43:21,000 --> 01:43:23,199
Cleveland and that fifty three to fifty two wins spot.

2235
01:43:23,800 --> 01:43:27,479
My issue is here, like a carently Towns feels like

2236
01:43:27,479 --> 01:43:29,000
he'll be more plug in play, but you outline the

2237
01:43:29,039 --> 01:43:32,680
Jahn brunts and stuff. They're a team that just exhausted

2238
01:43:32,720 --> 01:43:35,960
their asset stores and have now made themselves arguably more

2239
01:43:36,000 --> 01:43:39,800
dependent on their best player than they were before. That's

2240
01:43:40,279 --> 01:43:43,039
iffy and part because of the depth, but also just

2241
01:43:43,439 --> 01:43:46,079
the shot creation, the playmaking. You can talk about what

2242
01:43:46,119 --> 01:43:47,840
everyone else did. You can talk the Chal Bridge a

2243
01:43:47,880 --> 01:43:50,359
perfect example. He was on the Nets last year as

2244
01:43:50,359 --> 01:43:53,760
basically their featured option. Grant he didn't rank in the

2245
01:43:53,800 --> 01:43:57,640
top fifty of unassisted two pointers made or unassisted three

2246
01:43:57,640 --> 01:44:00,840
pointers made top fifty in the league. That's doesn't mean

2247
01:44:00,880 --> 01:44:02,840
he's a bad player, but like, don't just pencil and

2248
01:44:02,880 --> 01:44:05,640
McHale Bridges. He's a viable number two right, just what

2249
01:44:05,800 --> 01:44:09,159
Carl Anthony Towns wasn't in that top fifty either. And

2250
01:44:09,199 --> 01:44:12,359
you also have the depth issue. This isn't the Timms.

2251
01:44:12,560 --> 01:44:14,319
The thing that what makes me want to go over

2252
01:44:14,439 --> 01:44:16,439
is like Tim's is gonna coach to win fifty seven,

2253
01:44:16,600 --> 01:44:20,239
like he wants the one seed. But but this isn't

2254
01:44:20,239 --> 01:44:22,479
the Tims thing. These players haven't played for Tims for

2255
01:44:22,479 --> 01:44:25,319
too long. Oji Nanobi has played in seventy or more

2256
01:44:25,560 --> 01:44:28,680
games or the equivalent looking at the shortened season twice

2257
01:44:29,039 --> 01:44:31,720
in his career. Carl Anthony Towns has done so once

2258
01:44:31,920 --> 01:44:34,560
over the past half decade. This team has players that

2259
01:44:34,600 --> 01:44:37,319
and yes, Michel Bridges is an iron man. I tend

2260
01:44:37,319 --> 01:44:38,960
to view that as as you continue to get older,

2261
01:44:38,960 --> 01:44:41,439
that you're just overdue to miss some time. Josh Hart

2262
01:44:41,439 --> 01:44:43,960
played a zillion minutes last year mostly out of necessity.

2263
01:44:44,159 --> 01:44:47,039
What if that catches up to him. I'm just I'm

2264
01:44:47,039 --> 01:44:49,960
not predicting all of this, but stuff is gonna come up.

2265
01:44:49,960 --> 01:44:52,119
We already know Mitchell Robinson's going to miss time, So

2266
01:44:52,159 --> 01:44:56,279
your top second unit guys are Duce McBride and then

2267
01:44:56,319 --> 01:44:58,119
you get to like Precious a Chua or is it

2268
01:44:58,199 --> 01:44:58,960
Andrew Shammy?

2269
01:44:59,279 --> 01:44:59,680
Speaker 1: Yeah? Is that?

2270
01:45:00,079 --> 01:45:01,960
Speaker 2: And that's a weird spot to be in. And I

2271
01:45:02,000 --> 01:45:05,039
don't really know that they're not out of trade options,

2272
01:45:05,079 --> 01:45:07,960
but like, what is the move We're using Mitchell Robinson's salary,

2273
01:45:08,239 --> 01:45:10,079
assuming the team still want him to try and get

2274
01:45:10,119 --> 01:45:13,199
like two players and you can still aggregate, So is it,

2275
01:45:13,239 --> 01:45:16,560
you know, trading two players for three or you I've

2276
01:45:16,560 --> 01:45:18,560
seen that they might be interested in Marcus Smart, which

2277
01:45:18,560 --> 01:45:21,079
I don't really understand because I think I'd rather have

2278
01:45:21,720 --> 01:45:24,199
Deuce McBride at his price point, although it might say

2279
01:45:24,199 --> 01:45:27,000
more about, well, we think Marcus mart can defend Biggs

2280
01:45:27,000 --> 01:45:28,800
and now we have Carl Anthony Towns is our center.

2281
01:45:29,399 --> 01:45:31,960
I think this team's gonna be really good. I think

2282
01:45:32,000 --> 01:45:34,640
they're kind of how I just said that. The Timberwolves,

2283
01:45:34,640 --> 01:45:37,079
to me, feel like they're better built to dominate the

2284
01:45:37,119 --> 01:45:40,439
regular season than playoffs. The Knicks feel like, if they're healthy,

2285
01:45:40,720 --> 01:45:43,399
they're gonna be more of a nightmare playoff matchup than

2286
01:45:43,439 --> 01:45:47,239
when we're looking at surviving the regular season. What's counterintuitive

2287
01:45:47,239 --> 01:45:50,239
about that, though, is that if they're healthy, if no

2288
01:45:50,279 --> 01:45:53,000
one misses time, they're probably gonna win like sixty something

2289
01:45:53,039 --> 01:45:55,319
games because Tim's is gonna coach them that way.

2290
01:45:55,640 --> 01:45:58,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a weird thought exercise. I was and I

2291
01:45:58,439 --> 01:46:01,039
couldn't decide on it, so I scrapped it. But maybe

2292
01:46:01,079 --> 01:46:04,000
you can get there. It's like on the nights where

2293
01:46:04,039 --> 01:46:07,039
Jalen Brunson's not playing, and it's just like campaign right

2294
01:46:07,239 --> 01:46:11,359
or or whoever like is is the rookie is at

2295
01:46:11,359 --> 01:46:14,560
that position, right, Like how good is that team? And

2296
01:46:14,600 --> 01:46:17,279
you want to say, like, well, bridges an Anobi cat

2297
01:46:17,439 --> 01:46:21,239
like heart, that team is still really good overall talent wise,

2298
01:46:21,279 --> 01:46:24,359
but it's like you just don't have the guy that

2299
01:46:24,520 --> 01:46:27,079
is going to put these other players in positions to

2300
01:46:27,159 --> 01:46:30,760
score and like generate his own stuff. And it's so

2301
01:46:31,399 --> 01:46:34,000
I think you said your point about like they got

2302
01:46:34,039 --> 01:46:38,079
more talent, and they also somehow like made Jalen Brunson,

2303
01:46:38,199 --> 01:46:42,279
like his unique skill set even like more precious and

2304
01:46:42,439 --> 01:46:45,880
rare like that. That is the real That's where I

2305
01:46:45,960 --> 01:46:48,399
really come down on this is like it's all fallen

2306
01:46:48,439 --> 01:46:50,880
apart if Brunson's not there, and that's just priced into

2307
01:46:50,960 --> 01:46:51,800
the fifty two wins.

2308
01:46:51,800 --> 01:46:54,600
Speaker 2: I think he finished last year injured and he played

2309
01:46:54,600 --> 01:46:56,520
a bunch of minutes, and so it's just like, even

2310
01:46:56,640 --> 01:46:58,520
let's say these guys don't get injured, is there a

2311
01:46:58,560 --> 01:47:01,600
chance for And by the way, Jalen Brunson specifically, I'm

2312
01:47:01,640 --> 01:47:04,560
not predicting regression, but if he's anything less than a

2313
01:47:04,600 --> 01:47:07,880
top five MVP candidate, again, you could argue maybe you're

2314
01:47:07,920 --> 01:47:10,319
not worse as a basketball team, you're probably certainly worse

2315
01:47:10,560 --> 01:47:11,600
in the regular season.

2316
01:47:11,640 --> 01:47:14,000
Speaker 1: When you're just looking at wins. He's another guy where

2317
01:47:14,000 --> 01:47:16,359
it's like how much better can he can't get better?

2318
01:47:16,560 --> 01:47:19,079
Like right, like that's just I mean, the odds he

2319
01:47:19,079 --> 01:47:21,319
gets better are like five percent. Like it's just this

2320
01:47:21,359 --> 01:47:22,680
is about as good as you can be.

2321
01:47:23,119 --> 01:47:25,720
Speaker 2: I'll push back and say he has never played with

2322
01:47:25,800 --> 01:47:28,960
this type of usage, with this type of spacing. He

2323
01:47:29,039 --> 01:47:31,439
had the space and Dallas not the usage, And in

2324
01:47:31,439 --> 01:47:33,439
New York he's had the usage and not the spacing.

2325
01:47:33,800 --> 01:47:36,760
But even so, it's Jalen Brunson getting five percent better.

2326
01:47:36,840 --> 01:47:39,439
When you don't have a call who is who is

2327
01:47:39,479 --> 01:47:43,319
their second most who's their second best player, or who's

2328
01:47:43,359 --> 01:47:46,199
their second most important player, who's their second most valuable player?

2329
01:47:46,479 --> 01:47:50,159
I don't there might be answer different answers questions.

2330
01:47:50,239 --> 01:47:54,039
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean to me, my first reaction was anonobe

2331
01:47:54,159 --> 01:47:57,039
just because of like why he what he means to

2332
01:47:58,039 --> 01:48:01,359
the cat of it all, like at center, and but

2333
01:48:01,520 --> 01:48:04,159
like he's definitely not creating his own shots. So like

2334
01:48:04,600 --> 01:48:06,800
the thing is, like there isn't there isn't that guy

2335
01:48:06,800 --> 01:48:08,600
because normally you would say it would be that guy,

2336
01:48:08,760 --> 01:48:10,479
or like probably a lot of people would say Bridges

2337
01:48:10,520 --> 01:48:13,920
because they remember that stretch where he looked like a guy.

2338
01:48:14,159 --> 01:48:16,279
Oh my god, he's not a third option on Phoenix.

2339
01:48:16,319 --> 01:48:18,399
He actually is someone that can run an offense.

2340
01:48:19,479 --> 01:48:20,000
Speaker 2: I just don't.

2341
01:48:20,119 --> 01:48:23,279
Speaker 1: I don't think the most recent evidence bears that out.

2342
01:48:23,319 --> 01:48:25,399
I don't think he is that guy. So I don't know.

2343
01:48:25,920 --> 01:48:29,960
I'll be with you, Dan big one here. I've been

2344
01:48:30,000 --> 01:48:32,359
waiting to discuss this one with you, mostly because your

2345
01:48:32,399 --> 01:48:35,760
win total is fantastic fifty six and a half for

2346
01:48:35,800 --> 01:48:39,119
the Oklahoma City thunder who, by the way, h one

2347
01:48:39,239 --> 01:48:42,119
fifty seven last year, have lots of young players and

2348
01:48:42,159 --> 01:48:47,479
added two incredible rotation pieces to the roster. Where I

2349
01:48:47,680 --> 01:48:49,640
feel like half jokingly ask you, what do you think

2350
01:48:49,640 --> 01:48:51,199
about that? Fifty six and a half.

2351
01:48:51,760 --> 01:48:55,239
Speaker 2: Way too low? I get, I understand, Okay, fifty seven

2352
01:48:55,279 --> 01:48:56,920
is a lot and so kind of the theory that

2353
01:48:56,960 --> 01:49:01,000
you used with the Celtics of have to win less?

2354
01:49:01,079 --> 01:49:03,800
Right in this case? The answer is no, show me

2355
01:49:03,880 --> 01:49:06,920
the what is the weakness of this team? Where's the

2356
01:49:07,199 --> 01:49:09,359
where's the hole? You can talk about? I don't want

2357
01:49:09,359 --> 01:49:11,199
to get into the championship stock of it all, even

2358
01:49:11,199 --> 01:49:13,920
though I think of their championship ship stock is higher

2359
01:49:13,920 --> 01:49:17,960
than ever in terms of strictly regular season victories. Why

2360
01:49:18,000 --> 01:49:19,960
is this team winning fewer than sixty games?

2361
01:49:21,439 --> 01:49:23,000
Speaker 1: That's rhetorical.

2362
01:49:23,479 --> 01:49:24,800
Speaker 2: I have them at sixty five.

2363
01:49:24,960 --> 01:49:27,199
Speaker 1: I guess I have to explain that since I anyway,

2364
01:49:27,239 --> 01:49:28,239
go ahead, So.

2365
01:49:28,279 --> 01:49:30,399
Speaker 2: I have them at sixty five. You don't have to

2366
01:49:30,439 --> 01:49:32,319
go that far over. But I think this is a

2367
01:49:32,359 --> 01:49:35,439
comfortable over for me. You could say, am I not like,

2368
01:49:35,520 --> 01:49:38,880
what am I supposed to factor in another? You, I'm

2369
01:49:38,960 --> 01:49:42,039
not wishing this in anything. There's one player they can't lose,

2370
01:49:42,319 --> 01:49:44,560
and it's Shay Gillig Alexander, and he's not a player

2371
01:49:44,560 --> 01:49:47,279
that you can factor in. He missed time when they

2372
01:49:47,279 --> 01:49:50,520
weren't trying to win. Yeah, and so they could lose

2373
01:49:50,600 --> 01:49:53,520
Chet Holmgren for the season again. And she's like, well,

2374
01:49:54,119 --> 01:49:56,920
they have like another top fifteen on the roster, and

2375
01:49:56,960 --> 01:50:01,359
I say, a hard stud. So I I'm so unbelievably

2376
01:50:01,439 --> 01:50:03,920
high on this team. And I don't think that they

2377
01:50:03,960 --> 01:50:06,359
have any material weaknesses. If I had to pick one

2378
01:50:06,760 --> 01:50:09,319
from my perspective, it would be do they have enough

2379
01:50:09,359 --> 01:50:12,840
shot creation? Bankable shot creation outside of shake Gil just Alexander.

2380
01:50:13,279 --> 01:50:15,800
I'm just gonna assume, like you're a little bit more

2381
01:50:15,840 --> 01:50:18,399
dynamic with Isaiah Hartenstein here the stuff he could do

2382
01:50:18,439 --> 01:50:19,960
out of the short role. And I'm just going to

2383
01:50:20,039 --> 01:50:23,079
assume that Jalen Williams end or Chet Homer and get better,

2384
01:50:23,159 --> 01:50:27,560
which isn't necessarily a major leap to make. So my

2385
01:50:27,680 --> 01:50:29,960
question to you is, are you prepared to explain yourself

2386
01:50:30,000 --> 01:50:31,520
for being so low on this team? Right?

2387
01:50:31,880 --> 01:50:34,960
Speaker 1: I'm a fifty nine, So I'm over. I will explain

2388
01:50:35,000 --> 01:50:38,439
my process. I needed to make sure that one the

2389
01:50:38,479 --> 01:50:42,119
Thunder had the highest win total of any I'm over,

2390
01:50:42,199 --> 01:50:44,000
What are you doing? Don't give me an under on there?

2391
01:50:44,279 --> 01:50:47,119
Speaker 2: Oh, Typo? Sorry? How dare you that?

2392
01:50:47,800 --> 01:50:50,159
Speaker 1: I could not explain if I was under. I needed

2393
01:50:50,159 --> 01:50:51,800
to make sure they had the best record in the West,

2394
01:50:52,000 --> 01:50:54,159
which they do here. I needed to make sure I

2395
01:50:54,279 --> 01:50:57,039
pencil them in for more games, more wins than they

2396
01:50:57,159 --> 01:51:00,399
got last year, which I did narrowly. Going from fifth seven,

2397
01:51:00,439 --> 01:51:03,439
I am at fifty nine, and I needed to do

2398
01:51:03,600 --> 01:51:08,720
that while balancing this goddamn win loss thing. And so

2399
01:51:09,079 --> 01:51:12,039
if I just in my heart of hearts, I think

2400
01:51:12,079 --> 01:51:15,000
the number for me is like sixty two. But I

2401
01:51:15,199 --> 01:51:17,439
just couldn't get that high. I just needed to get

2402
01:51:17,439 --> 01:51:19,720
a high enough number to accomplish those other two things,

2403
01:51:19,760 --> 01:51:23,399
which I did. Uh, I'm There's no other team I'm

2404
01:51:23,479 --> 01:51:25,720
higher on than the Thunder this season. I don't have

2405
01:51:25,760 --> 01:51:28,520
anybody winning sixty games spoiler for the what ten teams

2406
01:51:28,560 --> 01:51:32,439
we got left? So yeah, I like, I feel like

2407
01:51:32,479 --> 01:51:34,840
I do need to explain myself, Like why is your

2408
01:51:34,880 --> 01:51:37,680
prediction of fifty nine wins so low? But like that

2409
01:51:37,800 --> 01:51:39,960
if that doesn't illustrate what I think about the Thunder,

2410
01:51:39,960 --> 01:51:41,880
then I don't know what does. I said, they're My

2411
01:51:41,920 --> 01:51:43,520
hot take was they're going to have three All Stars

2412
01:51:43,560 --> 01:51:45,960
this year because I think Williams and and Chet can

2413
01:51:46,000 --> 01:51:50,279
get there to join Shay. So like, yeah, yeah, I mean, is.

2414
01:51:50,319 --> 01:51:53,239
Speaker 2: He so honestly the path to them even hitting me

2415
01:51:53,359 --> 01:51:55,760
under if we're not factoring in injuries. Is it just

2416
01:51:56,319 --> 01:51:58,840
that the wins are just so evenly distributed throughout the

2417
01:51:58,880 --> 01:52:00,880
West where it's like we have five teams that are

2418
01:52:00,920 --> 01:52:04,000
like fifty four and twenty six.

2419
01:52:04,359 --> 01:52:07,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, the path is like they never have to play

2420
01:52:07,159 --> 01:52:12,079
the Jazz Blazers, Clippers like that. I don't know. Yeah,

2421
01:52:12,159 --> 01:52:14,319
they only play the other top teams in the West.

2422
01:52:14,319 --> 01:52:18,319
Something reticulous. Yeah, So, I mean the depth is unbelievable.

2423
01:52:18,600 --> 01:52:21,399
Like SGA is another guy that's like how much better

2424
01:52:21,439 --> 01:52:23,920
can he actually get? Like because he's been second in

2425
01:52:24,039 --> 01:52:27,119
MVP voting, so I guess technically he can be slightly better,

2426
01:52:27,239 --> 01:52:30,840
but he's an All NBA shoe in. Like, I do

2427
01:52:30,880 --> 01:52:32,560
think there's at least a couple other guys that we

2428
01:52:32,640 --> 01:52:35,520
might discuss in that level. If it's not this year,

2429
01:52:35,560 --> 01:52:37,239
then like towards the end of the year next year,

2430
01:52:37,720 --> 01:52:40,520
and just like you know, to illustrate your point of

2431
01:52:40,560 --> 01:52:42,520
like other than SGA, it's like, oh my god, what

2432
01:52:42,560 --> 01:52:44,680
if Lou Dort pulls a hamstring. It's like, well, Alex

2433
01:52:44,720 --> 01:52:47,159
Crusoe is probably gonna be just fine guarding people. And

2434
01:52:47,199 --> 01:52:50,479
like I go through this team and I just forget

2435
01:52:50,560 --> 01:52:53,279
Cason Wallace is on it, and it's like, I mean,

2436
01:52:53,640 --> 01:52:55,720
he's one of our favorite rookies last year. That guy

2437
01:52:55,880 --> 01:52:58,000
is just gonna make threes and defend and like what

2438
01:52:58,039 --> 01:53:02,199
if he adds like anything else? Right, and Aaron Wiggins

2439
01:53:02,680 --> 01:53:05,920
hit half his three's last year, that's like your tenth guy.

2440
01:53:06,319 --> 01:53:09,439
I mean, Isaiah Joe is like an actual difference maker

2441
01:53:09,479 --> 01:53:11,760
as a movement shooter who you can use as a screener.

2442
01:53:11,760 --> 01:53:13,880
There's just like, I mean, it's a little bit like

2443
01:53:13,920 --> 01:53:16,840
the Rockets argument where you can't have all ten of

2444
01:53:16,880 --> 01:53:18,880
their awesome players on the court at the same time.

2445
01:53:19,039 --> 01:53:21,560
But that also means that they're always just gonna have

2446
01:53:21,640 --> 01:53:24,600
guys that cause huge problems on both ends, Like they're

2447
01:53:24,640 --> 01:53:27,079
never they're never going to have a spot in the

2448
01:53:27,199 --> 01:53:29,399
rotation that is like, man, how do we like work

2449
01:53:29,439 --> 01:53:31,880
around this guy? There's always going to be value adds

2450
01:53:31,920 --> 01:53:34,640
just up and down this roster. There, They're stupid good. There,

2451
01:53:34,720 --> 01:53:37,039
They're the best team in the regular season to my eye.

2452
01:53:37,520 --> 01:53:39,239
So I'm with you at least there, even if our

2453
01:53:39,319 --> 01:53:40,279
win totals are different.

2454
01:53:40,600 --> 01:53:43,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't even how would they finish under failure?

2455
01:53:43,239 --> 01:53:48,000
Is it just that the because it's only injury, it's

2456
01:53:48,039 --> 01:53:50,399
only injury because it's not going to be the defense

2457
01:53:50,439 --> 01:53:51,680
they have a chance to be like probably one of

2458
01:53:51,680 --> 01:53:52,920
the best defenses of all time.

2459
01:53:53,039 --> 01:53:55,880
Speaker 1: Agree, Yeah, I mean that, Yeah, it really that would

2460
01:53:55,920 --> 01:53:58,479
be the So you think they'll finish higher on defense

2461
01:53:58,479 --> 01:54:00,239
and offense, I think that's a pretty clear.

2462
01:54:01,520 --> 01:54:05,479
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think honestly the only team that which teams

2463
01:54:05,560 --> 01:54:08,159
could theoretically have a better defense than them, I would

2464
01:54:08,199 --> 01:54:15,159
say Minnesota and Orlando for sure, and maybe Boston, Like

2465
01:54:15,319 --> 01:54:17,159
is are you prepared to throw any like those are?

2466
01:54:17,159 --> 01:54:20,239
And obviously I mean, okaysee finished fourth behind those three

2467
01:54:20,239 --> 01:54:20,960
teams last year.

2468
01:54:21,000 --> 01:54:23,720
Speaker 1: So but no, they added Hart and Signing and oh

2469
01:54:23,760 --> 01:54:25,760
my god, I can't believe we got this far into it.

2470
01:54:26,119 --> 01:54:29,119
So Hart and sign and Cruso were second and fifth

2471
01:54:29,279 --> 01:54:32,439
in defensive estimated plus minus in the league last year,

2472
01:54:32,800 --> 01:54:35,439
So they added two top five guys by that metric.

2473
01:54:35,520 --> 01:54:37,720
It's not the be all end all, but it's persuasive

2474
01:54:37,840 --> 01:54:41,119
and like, yeah, the tape ain't lion at least as

2475
01:54:41,119 --> 01:54:43,319
far as Caruso, Like that guy is hell out there

2476
01:54:43,359 --> 01:54:47,000
if you're an offensive player. So yeah, four Flipper on

2477
01:54:47,119 --> 01:54:49,920
defense is like the floor. They can't be worse than fourth.

2478
01:54:50,479 --> 01:54:53,880
Speaker 2: And by the way, this doesn't apply to defense. They

2479
01:54:53,920 --> 01:54:56,439
can like if they need if it courrs like, oh,

2480
01:54:56,479 --> 01:54:58,760
we do need some extra shock creation, juice or more shooting.

2481
01:54:58,840 --> 01:55:02,039
Let's say might be the they could go trade for it.

2482
01:55:02,800 --> 01:55:07,039
Speaker 1: God, the picks are still maybe hey, maybe they trade

2483
01:55:07,079 --> 01:55:09,239
that twenty five first back to the Clippers and just

2484
01:55:09,399 --> 01:55:13,079
have Kawhi and they send salary filler like maybe what, I'm.

2485
01:55:12,920 --> 01:55:16,439
Speaker 2: Sorry, would you what would he if Joe Williams, chet

2486
01:55:16,439 --> 01:55:18,039
Holmer and Shakes I was in or all healthy, I

2487
01:55:18,039 --> 01:55:20,800
wouldn't even think about making it if it was just

2488
01:55:20,880 --> 01:55:23,600
that pick or like even one of the Clippers picks.

2489
01:55:23,600 --> 01:55:26,359
And then salary to Matt any salary by the way,

2490
01:55:26,399 --> 01:55:29,319
it's just when you're the problem with the thunder, making

2491
01:55:29,359 --> 01:55:32,800
that trade is just like there's no salary that they

2492
01:55:32,840 --> 01:55:37,520
send out that isn't valuable, right, So here's go ahead.

2493
01:55:37,560 --> 01:55:40,159
Speaker 1: Sorry, I was just gonna say, like, we're both saying

2494
01:55:40,359 --> 01:55:42,439
they're gonna win more games than anyone in the league

2495
01:55:42,439 --> 01:55:46,920
this year. We're both saying that, and they have the

2496
01:55:47,000 --> 01:55:50,920
easiest path if they want to of making themselves better

2497
01:55:51,479 --> 01:55:54,199
right now than anyone else in the league with is

2498
01:55:54,199 --> 01:55:55,880
that as an over Is that an overstatement?

2499
01:55:56,199 --> 01:55:56,359
Speaker 2: No?

2500
01:55:57,079 --> 01:55:59,279
Speaker 1: So, like, what are we talking about fifty six and

2501
01:55:59,279 --> 01:56:01,199
a half? Like that's insane?

2502
01:56:01,479 --> 01:56:03,439
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, what are you talking about with fifty nine?

2503
01:56:04,039 --> 01:56:06,319
The map? I just the map. You're like two and

2504
01:56:06,359 --> 01:56:08,920
a half wins away from the over under. We're I'm

2505
01:56:09,000 --> 01:56:09,479
up here.

2506
01:56:10,439 --> 01:56:12,359
Speaker 1: Could I say, what if I took where are my

2507
01:56:12,439 --> 01:56:15,039
wins coming from? Who can I just knock the Hawks

2508
01:56:15,079 --> 01:56:17,600
down to like twelve and give twenty four more to

2509
01:56:18,239 --> 01:56:18,720
the Thunder?

2510
01:56:18,960 --> 01:56:21,479
Speaker 2: Honestly, the team I was thinking about this, if I

2511
01:56:21,520 --> 01:56:24,479
had to pull a bunch of wins more from one team,

2512
01:56:24,960 --> 01:56:27,479
I still feel like it would be Charlotte to where

2513
01:56:27,520 --> 01:56:29,840
it's just like, maybe you can get yourselfing to Toronto, but

2514
01:56:30,359 --> 01:56:33,520
Charlotte is just like they have the injury risk and

2515
01:56:33,560 --> 01:56:35,760
they might just not want to be good. So it's

2516
01:56:35,760 --> 01:56:39,039
like there's very few teams that have both of those factors.

2517
01:56:38,720 --> 01:56:40,880
Speaker 1: And we've both got the Warriors and the and the

2518
01:56:40,960 --> 01:56:43,319
Lakers in like the mid to low forties. You could

2519
01:56:43,319 --> 01:56:45,640
pull five apiece from either of those, no problem, and

2520
01:56:45,680 --> 01:56:47,279
then I could have fifty. Then I have sixty nine

2521
01:56:47,279 --> 01:56:49,479
in sead of fifty nine for the thunder and feel like,

2522
01:56:49,520 --> 01:56:49,720
you know.

2523
01:56:49,720 --> 01:56:55,159
Speaker 2: What, I'll go to seventy four. Uh this this next

2524
01:56:55,199 --> 01:56:58,439
team will be whoops, there's a spoiler alert on that.

2525
01:56:58,479 --> 01:57:02,119
A little bit more controversial with your I no magic, Oh,

2526
01:57:02,159 --> 01:57:04,439
mister hughes forty seven and a half. They won forty

2527
01:57:04,439 --> 01:57:07,079
seven last year. This is the classic hedge of just like, oh,

2528
01:57:07,159 --> 01:57:09,680
this team is going to be better than last year,

2529
01:57:09,680 --> 01:57:11,800
but how much better? Where are you that with them?

2530
01:57:12,119 --> 01:57:15,800
Speaker 1: So I this is a hard one. So I think

2531
01:57:15,800 --> 01:57:18,000
the defense is just a lock. I think the defense

2532
01:57:18,000 --> 01:57:22,159
will be great. I think Franz Wagner has to shoot

2533
01:57:22,199 --> 01:57:25,439
better than he did last season. He's just get over

2534
01:57:25,479 --> 01:57:28,920
thirty percent. I guess would be would be cool. I

2535
01:57:28,920 --> 01:57:31,760
think it's possible they get something from Anthony Black and

2536
01:57:31,880 --> 01:57:34,960
or Jet Howard, and then obviously KCP gives them another

2537
01:57:35,039 --> 01:57:39,720
like viable starting caliber wing. I'm still gone under and

2538
01:57:39,760 --> 01:57:41,520
I don't feel great about it. I got him at

2539
01:57:41,560 --> 01:57:44,920
forty six, and it's just like it's a numbers game,

2540
01:57:45,159 --> 01:57:50,159
and it's the progress Isn't linear thing, specifically with respect

2541
01:57:50,159 --> 01:57:52,720
to like I Jalen Suggs, I don't think is gonna

2542
01:57:52,720 --> 01:57:56,319
shoot it quite as well. And they still just don't

2543
01:57:56,359 --> 01:57:59,880
have the thing that they needed most in terms of

2544
01:57:59,880 --> 01:58:02,439
like I mean, the thing you need most is like

2545
01:58:02,479 --> 01:58:04,960
a bankable like future star, which I think Paalo is,

2546
01:58:05,000 --> 01:58:08,680
but like for them specifically, the organizer, the shock creator,

2547
01:58:08,760 --> 01:58:11,000
the backcourt like floor general type. Don't have that guy.

2548
01:58:11,520 --> 01:58:16,640
So I'm going under while acknowledging that like objectively, the

2549
01:58:16,720 --> 01:58:18,880
Magic might just be a better and more dangerous team,

2550
01:58:18,920 --> 01:58:21,159
I just don't think they're gonna win quite as many games.

2551
01:58:21,439 --> 01:58:24,039
Speaker 2: It is the classic progress Isn't Linear situation, and I've

2552
01:58:24,079 --> 01:58:27,199
probably been more prepared to go over have they done

2553
01:58:27,279 --> 01:58:29,479
more or if I had faith that they were going

2554
01:58:29,560 --> 01:58:31,640
to do more to kind of juice their offense, because

2555
01:58:31,640 --> 01:58:34,479
as of right now, aside from Fronzvagen and we're shooting better.

2556
01:58:34,479 --> 01:58:36,680
I know a lot of people have kind of painted

2557
01:58:36,680 --> 01:58:39,000
this as well. They think that Anthony Black can continue

2558
01:58:39,000 --> 01:58:40,960
to develop on the ball. How is how many minutes

2559
01:58:40,960 --> 01:58:43,199
of anti black getting on this team. Yeah, we look

2560
01:58:43,199 --> 01:58:45,720
at who they have available on the perimeter. I honestly

2561
01:58:45,760 --> 01:58:48,359
think they're set up right now. Is a vote of

2562
01:58:48,399 --> 01:58:51,520
confidence first and foremost, and Paul ben Caro fair and

2563
01:58:51,560 --> 01:58:54,479
then Jalen Suggs a little bit more devisive there. I

2564
01:58:54,560 --> 01:58:56,479
don't know if Jalen Suggs I did mention this on

2565
01:58:56,479 --> 01:58:58,199
our Hot takee pod that I feel like I could

2566
01:58:58,239 --> 01:59:00,760
see it maybe becomes more of this method audicle playmaker

2567
01:59:00,800 --> 01:59:03,039
in the half court. I can't guarantee it. And this

2568
01:59:03,079 --> 01:59:05,279
is all to say, winning forty seven games is like,

2569
01:59:05,399 --> 01:59:07,840
that's a lot of games to win, and I think

2570
01:59:07,840 --> 01:59:11,680
their offense should be better than like, Oh, I'm just

2571
01:59:11,720 --> 01:59:13,760
gonna go ahead and pencil in the magic for another

2572
01:59:14,319 --> 01:59:16,880
bottom ten finish basically, even though where did they end

2573
01:59:16,960 --> 01:59:18,720
up last year? They were I think they were bottom

2574
01:59:18,760 --> 01:59:19,079
ten in.

2575
01:59:19,159 --> 01:59:21,399
Speaker 1: Twenty second, yeah, twenty second.

2576
01:59:21,680 --> 01:59:25,399
Speaker 2: Yeah. So I just don't know that they've done enough

2577
01:59:25,439 --> 01:59:27,560
to address it. If you told me that, even if

2578
01:59:27,600 --> 01:59:30,119
you told me they traded for Anthony Simons or Malcolm Brogden,

2579
01:59:30,720 --> 01:59:33,319
I might be prepared to go over. But also then

2580
01:59:33,439 --> 01:59:36,079
integrating players mid season, who's going out. That gets a

2581
01:59:36,119 --> 01:59:38,399
little complicated. As of right now, I think that they

2582
01:59:38,399 --> 01:59:41,560
are a better team. I don't know that that translates much,

2583
01:59:41,960 --> 01:59:44,319
if at all, to their regular season wins total.

2584
01:59:44,960 --> 01:59:47,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would also add that like a lot of

2585
01:59:47,720 --> 01:59:51,119
units that they had that involved Jonathan Isaac just destroyed

2586
01:59:51,279 --> 01:59:54,279
opponents and he's been a health risk for like his

2587
01:59:54,319 --> 01:59:56,560
whole career. So I don't any like, you know, fifteen

2588
01:59:56,560 --> 01:59:59,279
minutes a game or whatever it was, but like you

2589
01:59:59,359 --> 02:00:01,600
might price in a a little less availability for him

2590
02:00:01,640 --> 02:00:03,520
than that could kind of knock some of that defensive

2591
02:00:03,560 --> 02:00:04,600
dominance down a little.

2592
02:00:04,640 --> 02:00:08,640
Speaker 2: And even looked and the recently extended Wendell Carter Jr.

2593
02:00:09,039 --> 02:00:11,359
Like he's battlet health issues too, so how how available

2594
02:00:11,520 --> 02:00:13,199
he'll be? And he kind of struggled with his stop

2595
02:00:13,239 --> 02:00:17,239
and start availability last year. Next up, mister Hughes, the

2596
02:00:17,279 --> 02:00:20,399
Philadelphia seventy six ers. This team seems like it was

2597
02:00:20,479 --> 02:00:23,760
unnecessarily difficult for me fifty two and a half though,

2598
02:00:23,760 --> 02:00:24,560
where did you land?

2599
02:00:25,479 --> 02:00:30,119
Speaker 1: So it's hard to discuss them without just acknowledging the

2600
02:00:30,199 --> 02:00:32,600
talent levels just higher than it was last year, right

2601
02:00:32,640 --> 02:00:35,319
like you had, Paul George, you make a bunch of like,

2602
02:00:35,479 --> 02:00:38,399
you know, you get to Caleb Martin in there Andre

2603
02:00:38,479 --> 02:00:41,279
Drummond is is he the best backup that and Beads had,

2604
02:00:41,279 --> 02:00:43,319
I guess, unless you count like Horford who was sort

2605
02:00:43,319 --> 02:00:46,840
of there to play with him, which already.

2606
02:00:46,319 --> 02:00:47,960
Speaker 2: Had Drummond at one point too.

2607
02:00:47,720 --> 02:00:50,600
Speaker 1: So I guess, well, but is this version of Drummond

2608
02:00:50,600 --> 02:00:51,479
better than that one? Somehow?

2609
02:00:51,520 --> 02:00:52,039
Speaker 2: I don't know.

2610
02:00:53,800 --> 02:00:55,680
Speaker 1: For me, so I go under. I have him at

2611
02:00:55,680 --> 02:00:58,760
fifty one, so it's a narrow under, and it's just

2612
02:01:00,079 --> 02:01:02,640
I need to see Joel Embiid like be awesome for

2613
02:01:02,680 --> 02:01:05,560
a full season and be healthy before I believe that

2614
02:01:05,600 --> 02:01:08,600
it's going to happen. I do think having George and

2615
02:01:08,680 --> 02:01:11,560
Maxi there sets your floor pretty high because you might

2616
02:01:11,640 --> 02:01:13,840
just have more talent than the opponents on nights win

2617
02:01:13,920 --> 02:01:16,000
MB doesn't play, if you know, assuming you're not playing

2618
02:01:16,000 --> 02:01:19,319
the best teams in the league. So you know, narrow

2619
02:01:19,439 --> 02:01:22,640
range to me, But I can't get the ceiling real

2620
02:01:22,720 --> 02:01:25,680
high just because of the uncertainty of Embiid.

2621
02:01:26,840 --> 02:01:29,399
Speaker 2: That's that's it for me. There's also the uncertainty of

2622
02:01:29,399 --> 02:01:31,239
Paul George here too, where average is like twenty, some

2623
02:01:31,279 --> 02:01:33,920
of the absence is a year as well, and I

2624
02:01:33,960 --> 02:01:35,680
think you can trust that they will make a trade

2625
02:01:35,720 --> 02:01:39,079
to kind of get themselves another like bigger winger forward

2626
02:01:39,079 --> 02:01:41,319
defender in there who's not Yabu Selli, or you know,

2627
02:01:41,520 --> 02:01:45,199
asking Paul George or Caleb Martin to do too much.

2628
02:01:45,840 --> 02:01:48,800
But that's like a February thing or late January thing.

2629
02:01:48,880 --> 02:01:51,479
Probably it's the embiid of it all to me. And

2630
02:01:51,520 --> 02:01:53,800
I think, look, even it feels like the messaging coming

2631
02:01:53,840 --> 02:01:56,119
out is that they're eyeing a championship and so we

2632
02:01:56,239 --> 02:01:58,560
just might see on a night to night basis, so

2633
02:01:58,560 --> 02:02:00,279
they can to manage his minutes, or more importantly, they're

2634
02:02:00,279 --> 02:02:02,439
gonna manage his appearances. And so if you're sitting here

2635
02:02:02,439 --> 02:02:05,199
telling me, all right, well, joellebie is gonna play in

2636
02:02:05,239 --> 02:02:07,960
fewer than sixty five games, how many wins are we

2637
02:02:08,000 --> 02:02:10,439
supposed to pencil them for, I guess the rebuke would

2638
02:02:10,439 --> 02:02:12,680
be they won forty seven when he played in basically

2639
02:02:12,720 --> 02:02:15,880
half the year last season, and they're better now at

2640
02:02:15,880 --> 02:02:18,479
the top, So I think that's a fair criticism. I

2641
02:02:18,560 --> 02:02:21,119
have them at fifty one also as a slight under,

2642
02:02:21,680 --> 02:02:23,039
and I think I don't want to say that that's

2643
02:02:23,239 --> 02:02:25,880
gonna be by design on their part. I just don't

2644
02:02:25,920 --> 02:02:28,199
think that when you look at who their most important

2645
02:02:28,199 --> 02:02:31,399
players are. I mean even going down to Kyle Lowry

2646
02:02:31,439 --> 02:02:33,039
at this point as well, when Keam of Martin's dealt

2647
02:02:33,039 --> 02:02:34,520
with a bunch of injury stuff. This is gonna be

2648
02:02:34,560 --> 02:02:37,640
a team maybe counterintuitive because they're coached by Nick Nurse

2649
02:02:38,000 --> 02:02:41,600
that they're going to prioritize self preservation for the postseason.

2650
02:02:41,760 --> 02:02:44,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're right there with the Bucks, right, even more

2651
02:02:44,039 --> 02:02:46,640
so where it's just like we kind of know what

2652
02:02:46,680 --> 02:02:50,279
we are. We gotta prioritize the spring and not the winter.

2653
02:02:50,720 --> 02:02:52,680
Speaker 2: Who's more likely to clear there? Because we both have

2654
02:02:52,760 --> 02:02:54,680
the Bucks going I thought I would have the Bucks

2655
02:02:54,680 --> 02:02:56,680
going over, but we both had the Bucks and Sixers

2656
02:02:56,720 --> 02:02:58,439
going under. Who's more likely to clear there? We have

2657
02:02:58,439 --> 02:03:00,560
the Bucks at fifteen and a half and Philly at

2658
02:03:00,600 --> 02:03:02,439
fifty two and a half. Who's more likely to go over?

2659
02:03:03,000 --> 02:03:06,880
Speaker 1: I'd say the Sixers, I think the Bucks. Okay, Well,

2660
02:03:06,920 --> 02:03:09,840
it feels like this like we've set ourselves up and Nicy.

2661
02:03:09,680 --> 02:03:11,479
Speaker 2: Like one of these teams is gonna win way more

2662
02:03:11,520 --> 02:03:12,880
games than we're projecting them to.

2663
02:03:13,159 --> 02:03:15,880
Speaker 1: You think, right, I mean we're both acknowledging that, Like

2664
02:03:16,640 --> 02:03:18,920
it's kind of the if they want to, right, It's

2665
02:03:18,960 --> 02:03:21,399
like it's it's I think that the Sixers are like,

2666
02:03:22,399 --> 02:03:25,359
they're cool with forty nine wins if it means that

2667
02:03:25,399 --> 02:03:28,520
embiid stayed healthy the whole year you rested them twenty

2668
02:03:28,560 --> 02:03:31,119
plus times, like oh, you know all that stuff, They're

2669
02:03:31,119 --> 02:03:34,479
totally I think they're totally fine with the fourth seed

2670
02:03:35,079 --> 02:03:38,520
and and a healthy roster like that's they've gone the

2671
02:03:38,560 --> 02:03:41,520
other way too many times to follow that path again.

2672
02:03:41,960 --> 02:03:45,399
That takes us to Phoenix. The Suns, Dan have an

2673
02:03:45,439 --> 02:03:47,880
over under a forty seven and a half coming off

2674
02:03:47,880 --> 02:03:51,119
a forty nine win season. They got point guards this time?

2675
02:03:51,399 --> 02:03:52,760
Are you going over for that reason?

2676
02:03:55,359 --> 02:03:57,960
Speaker 2: This is am I rotically that this is obnoxiously low.

2677
02:03:58,359 --> 02:04:00,960
I have them been fifty four wins, so I went under,

2678
02:04:00,960 --> 02:04:02,399
and I interually had them in fifty five of the

2679
02:04:02,520 --> 02:04:05,920
sex and I ended up pulling away. There's definitely there.

2680
02:04:06,600 --> 02:04:08,800
There's two players that could get injured and really screw

2681
02:04:08,880 --> 02:04:10,720
them over, and Devin Booker and Kevin Duran. That feels

2682
02:04:10,760 --> 02:04:13,760
like more than some other teams might have. I just

2683
02:04:13,840 --> 02:04:16,600
Mike Budenholzer. Teams typically win a bunch of regular season games,

2684
02:04:16,960 --> 02:04:19,359
even if you expect there to be some defensive regression

2685
02:04:19,520 --> 02:04:22,640
off the twelve ranked defense in points lout per possession

2686
02:04:22,680 --> 02:04:25,880
last year. One why they're of coach by Butenholzer. Now,

2687
02:04:25,920 --> 02:04:28,560
who's not that much, if any, of a defensive downgrade

2688
02:04:28,560 --> 02:04:31,159
from Mike Budenholzer. But I just think we both have

2689
02:04:31,239 --> 02:04:33,520
issues with the you know, they don't have enough, No,

2690
02:04:33,760 --> 02:04:35,640
they have too many non wings, I would frame it.

2691
02:04:36,000 --> 02:04:39,359
But just the infusion of the offensive organization with Tyas

2692
02:04:39,399 --> 02:04:41,720
Jones should make the job of Devin Booker and Kevin

2693
02:04:41,760 --> 02:04:44,800
Durant specifically even Bradley Beal a lot easier. And so

2694
02:04:44,880 --> 02:04:46,319
when you look at what they were able to do

2695
02:04:46,800 --> 02:04:49,399
on the offensive end last year, again in the aggregate

2696
02:04:49,520 --> 02:04:52,039
has some different hot stretches and there are lineups that

2697
02:04:52,079 --> 02:04:56,039
are that were obviously in Fuego. Phoenix was ninth in

2698
02:04:56,159 --> 02:04:58,359
point score per possession last year. That feels more like

2699
02:04:58,439 --> 02:05:02,640
it'll be closer to fifth or fourth this year. So

2700
02:05:02,920 --> 02:05:05,000
I think that there we're talking about teams that could

2701
02:05:05,000 --> 02:05:07,640
party crash the contensus top four in the West. I

2702
02:05:07,720 --> 02:05:09,319
have them as a top four team in the Western

2703
02:05:09,319 --> 02:05:11,640
Conference right now. I don't feel great about it because

2704
02:05:11,920 --> 02:05:14,039
when you look at Dallas, when you look at depth,

2705
02:05:14,840 --> 02:05:18,239
maybe not Denver, but Dallas and Minnesota specifically, and I

2706
02:05:18,279 --> 02:05:20,800
have the thunder first. It's those are teams that have

2707
02:05:20,960 --> 02:05:24,000
more depth to their roster, whereas the Suns you get to,

2708
02:05:24,520 --> 02:05:28,279
all right, Royce O'Neill, fine, but then it's Josha Kogi

2709
02:05:28,520 --> 02:05:31,199
and are we playing bull ball a bunch? And like

2710
02:05:31,239 --> 02:05:33,359
who else are we throwing into there? Is Monte Morris

2711
02:05:33,439 --> 02:05:36,399
gonna have a bigger role, But just like they go,

2712
02:05:37,199 --> 02:05:39,479
I guess seven players deep that you can trust when

2713
02:05:39,479 --> 02:05:41,680
you're talking Grayson Allen and Royce O'Neil off the bench

2714
02:05:41,720 --> 02:05:45,560
with Tyas Jones, Booker, Beiale, Durant and Nurkic, that's not nothing.

2715
02:05:45,760 --> 02:05:47,640
I mean, that's more than maybe the Nuggets can say

2716
02:05:47,640 --> 02:05:48,680
for themselves at this point.

2717
02:05:49,039 --> 02:05:52,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'm over. I got them at forty nine

2718
02:05:53,439 --> 02:05:56,199
and I'm I'm just pricing in the Durant age and

2719
02:05:56,239 --> 02:06:01,159
injury history. I'm never getting under a forty seven and

2720
02:06:01,159 --> 02:06:03,800
a half total with this much talent in Budenholzer just

2721
02:06:04,000 --> 02:06:06,359
because like, like that's really what it is to me

2722
02:06:06,439 --> 02:06:09,760
that he say what you want. Like also like he's

2723
02:06:09,800 --> 02:06:12,479
won a championship, so like you can't quite say everything

2724
02:06:12,520 --> 02:06:15,840
you want about Budenholzer, like, but he he gets regular

2725
02:06:15,840 --> 02:06:18,479
season results, like that is that will be his legacy,

2726
02:06:18,640 --> 02:06:22,479
don't you think? Like he just he maximizes on both ends,

2727
02:06:22,520 --> 02:06:25,199
like what the scheme should be to win that game

2728
02:06:25,279 --> 02:06:28,840
that night, and it just it's worked everywhere. So I

2729
02:06:29,159 --> 02:06:32,079
just can't. I can't say forty seven you took go under.

2730
02:06:32,119 --> 02:06:34,119
You have to say the Sons are going forty seven games,

2731
02:06:34,119 --> 02:06:36,319
Like that's another case where it's just it would just

2732
02:06:36,319 --> 02:06:38,199
be injury, Like that's how you get under.

2733
02:06:38,239 --> 02:06:40,760
Speaker 2: And he had because they won forty nine last year

2734
02:06:40,800 --> 02:06:43,199
Grant and added as starter, right.

2735
02:06:43,479 --> 02:06:47,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean yeah, it's it's and like look, durance,

2736
02:06:48,079 --> 02:06:51,439
someone that you might suspect will have an injury or

2737
02:06:51,520 --> 02:06:54,680
fall off. And Booker has not been the you know,

2738
02:06:54,720 --> 02:06:57,640
the healthiest guy in the world over his career. But man,

2739
02:06:57,800 --> 02:06:59,960
like I'm not up there with you in the fifties,

2740
02:07:00,119 --> 02:07:02,920
I could never deny that. They don't they have that upside,

2741
02:07:02,960 --> 02:07:05,000
like yeah, they could, they could win fifty eight, Like

2742
02:07:05,239 --> 02:07:09,079
why you know, the talent's there. That's just not just

2743
02:07:09,119 --> 02:07:10,960
to me. I'm kind of like hedging a little bit

2744
02:07:10,960 --> 02:07:15,880
with forty nine. Man, here we go. The Blazers have

2745
02:07:15,920 --> 02:07:18,800
an over under of twenty one and a half. We

2746
02:07:19,000 --> 02:07:21,039
recently said on a podcast that they could win the

2747
02:07:21,039 --> 02:07:23,800
West if they wanted to because they're so talented. They

2748
02:07:23,800 --> 02:07:26,439
only won twenty one. Did we say that? Maybe not

2749
02:07:26,520 --> 02:07:28,600
quite that much? They won twenty one a year ago?

2750
02:07:31,119 --> 02:07:32,359
What do you think? Over under?

2751
02:07:32,760 --> 02:07:38,439
Speaker 2: Push for screen on YouTube already it's what is the

2752
02:07:39,279 --> 02:07:42,359
I just I Shane Sharp already injured, Robert Williams the

2753
02:07:42,399 --> 02:07:44,880
third already injured. Okay, I get it if you think

2754
02:07:44,880 --> 02:07:47,520
they're going to trade a bunch of guys, but this

2755
02:07:47,680 --> 02:07:50,920
is just are are you? They won twenty one last

2756
02:07:50,960 --> 02:07:53,199
year and you're giving them an extra half win bump

2757
02:07:53,199 --> 02:07:55,800
if we somewhat Scoot Henderson not going to get any better?

2758
02:07:56,640 --> 02:07:58,520
I just and that was with hande Charp playing and

2759
02:07:58,560 --> 02:08:01,880
what was it thirty three games or something. If you

2760
02:08:01,880 --> 02:08:03,680
think that they're gonna pivot all the way into oh,

2761
02:08:03,760 --> 02:08:07,000
Jeremy Grant is traded, h Denny Avdia is maybe being

2762
02:08:07,039 --> 02:08:10,840
shut down at some point this season, Sure, but this

2763
02:08:10,920 --> 02:08:15,920
team stretches two NBA players or real prospects deep at

2764
02:08:16,000 --> 02:08:19,520
least at every single spot. And it's just like, oh,

2765
02:08:19,760 --> 02:08:21,560
I know the West is tough, and that you have

2766
02:08:21,640 --> 02:08:25,119
to pull the wins from somewhere, but like they won

2767
02:08:25,199 --> 02:08:27,119
twenty one last year and you can't. But why are

2768
02:08:27,119 --> 02:08:29,600
they gonna be worse? What is what is the reason

2769
02:08:29,600 --> 02:08:32,319
they're going to be worse that they decide to be worse.

2770
02:08:33,119 --> 02:08:37,279
Speaker 1: The argument you'd make is that they really skew towards

2771
02:08:37,319 --> 02:08:41,720
We're we're gonna play Scoot and Sharp when he's healthy

2772
02:08:42,000 --> 02:08:43,640
and maybe when he this is how they just play

2773
02:08:43,680 --> 02:08:45,760
Shade and Sharp even though he only has one good shoulder.

2774
02:08:45,800 --> 02:08:47,600
That would probably be how you get under. But they

2775
02:08:47,680 --> 02:08:49,640
if it's just like we're only playing the young guys.

2776
02:08:49,640 --> 02:08:52,600
We've traded all but like that's not gonna happen, you know,

2777
02:08:53,199 --> 02:08:55,720
on November first, they're not gonna just jet Us and

2778
02:08:55,800 --> 02:08:57,880
all the old Like you're gonna play Jeremy Grant and

2779
02:08:58,000 --> 02:09:01,199
Robert Williams or and DeAndre Ayton and like, I mean,

2780
02:09:01,359 --> 02:09:03,560
I don't know where you put the guys like Kamara

2781
02:09:03,800 --> 02:09:06,119
and they're like, I mean, he's a helpful player now,

2782
02:09:06,199 --> 02:09:10,680
but he's also young enough to be like a so Toulo,

2783
02:09:10,760 --> 02:09:13,000
I'm over. I'm at twenty five, you're at what are

2784
02:09:13,039 --> 02:09:18,319
you at twenty four? Like if they being a hyperbolic earlier,

2785
02:09:18,359 --> 02:09:20,640
but like if they wanted to, there's like thirty four

2786
02:09:20,760 --> 02:09:23,640
thirty five wins in this team, right, Like if depending

2787
02:09:23,640 --> 02:09:25,640
on what they want to do, putting them at twenty

2788
02:09:25,640 --> 02:09:27,079
four to twenty five, is that they acknowledge me that

2789
02:09:27,119 --> 02:09:30,000
they're going to actively decide not to win more games,

2790
02:09:30,039 --> 02:09:30,640
is how I feel.

2791
02:09:30,680 --> 02:09:31,399
Speaker 2: I think that's right.

2792
02:09:31,800 --> 02:09:33,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, So.

2793
02:09:33,119 --> 02:09:35,720
Speaker 2: To be this low, I just and is there anyone

2794
02:09:36,079 --> 02:09:38,000
that you could say, oh, they're injured, There's no way

2795
02:09:38,039 --> 02:09:40,600
this team gets to twenty two victories. There's literally no

2796
02:09:40,600 --> 02:09:42,319
one on the roster you could say that about right now.

2797
02:09:42,520 --> 02:09:45,319
That's no offense to Scoop, but like he was damaging

2798
02:09:45,439 --> 02:09:47,159
for a huge part of last year and we saw

2799
02:09:47,239 --> 02:09:53,119
him kind of turn the corner to close the season anyway.

2800
02:09:51,479 --> 02:09:53,880
Speaker 1: Right, And and that just means okay, so Simon's and

2801
02:09:53,960 --> 02:09:56,920
Denny Avdia and Jeremy Grant handle the ball more like okay,

2802
02:09:57,119 --> 02:10:01,079
Like that's that's not hurtful, Like that's helpful. So yeah,

2803
02:10:01,399 --> 02:10:05,279
I just I don't see I maybe this is just

2804
02:10:05,319 --> 02:10:07,920
probably they're guaranteed to win like twelve games now, because

2805
02:10:07,920 --> 02:10:10,359
it's like I don't understand how they win twenty one

2806
02:10:10,479 --> 02:10:11,640
or fewer games. I don't see it.

2807
02:10:11,720 --> 02:10:13,680
Speaker 2: I guess that you look at it and say, even

2808
02:10:13,720 --> 02:10:16,439
at full strength, you still consider them no better than

2809
02:10:16,439 --> 02:10:18,560
the fourteenth best team in the West, and that's their

2810
02:10:18,560 --> 02:10:21,880
pathway to winning twenty one games or a fewer.

2811
02:10:22,359 --> 02:10:24,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true. They could be a better team and

2812
02:10:24,960 --> 02:10:27,199
just get their asses kicked because there's twelve. You know,

2813
02:10:27,439 --> 02:10:29,039
everybody else in the West is good.

2814
02:10:29,319 --> 02:10:32,199
Speaker 2: But I just if we're being honest or can we

2815
02:10:32,319 --> 02:10:35,319
be prepared to guarantee that the San Antonio Spurs are

2816
02:10:35,359 --> 02:10:37,279
going to be better than the Blazers?

2817
02:10:37,600 --> 02:10:40,159
Speaker 1: Can't guarantee it? Like right, I mean that we're both

2818
02:10:40,199 --> 02:10:42,680
predicting that, But it's like, it's not stunning if those

2819
02:10:42,680 --> 02:10:43,960
things flip, not at all.

2820
02:10:44,279 --> 02:10:47,319
Speaker 2: Oh, this next team is your team? Grant the Sacramento Kings.

2821
02:10:47,439 --> 02:10:49,560
Speaker 1: All right? There are numbers forty six and a half

2822
02:10:49,680 --> 02:10:53,159
added to Marta Rosen. We universally agree that is a

2823
02:10:53,199 --> 02:10:57,520
talent upgrade. What do they win last year? Forty six? So,

2824
02:10:58,159 --> 02:11:00,800
I mean, the Vegas doesn't think they're a lot better?

2825
02:11:00,960 --> 02:11:03,880
Speaker 2: What do you think I went over but I went

2826
02:11:03,920 --> 02:11:05,840
to forty seven. It's not like this was an easy

2827
02:11:05,880 --> 02:11:08,520
over for me because I want to respect that I think. Look,

2828
02:11:08,600 --> 02:11:10,720
Malik Monk missed time to close the year. I think

2829
02:11:10,760 --> 02:11:13,479
Kevin Hurder, whether they trade him or keep him, should

2830
02:11:13,560 --> 02:11:15,399
have a better season than he like. He's been struggling

2831
02:11:15,439 --> 02:11:18,680
basically since the twenty twenty three playoffs. It feels like,

2832
02:11:19,000 --> 02:11:22,239
So if he's healthy, Kean Murray's gonna continue to get better.

2833
02:11:22,279 --> 02:11:24,960
I think he's already a fantastic defender. So if you're

2834
02:11:24,960 --> 02:11:28,079
gonna say that they got better, I like for them

2835
02:11:28,119 --> 02:11:30,800
to win fewer games. You can't. I think you have

2836
02:11:30,840 --> 02:11:33,880
to go beyond. You have to have inherent doubts about

2837
02:11:33,880 --> 02:11:35,960
the DeRozan edition working, and you have to believe that

2838
02:11:36,000 --> 02:11:39,199
there's a chance it could be actively hurtful. It can't

2839
02:11:39,199 --> 02:11:41,680
just be all the West is better said, like you

2840
02:11:41,800 --> 02:11:45,359
added Demarta Rosen, who is close to alst I get

2841
02:11:45,359 --> 02:11:47,840
the thing of just like, oh, their biggest addition was

2842
02:11:47,880 --> 02:11:50,640
this thirty five year old player. There's maybe we're signing

2843
02:11:50,640 --> 02:11:53,079
too much value to it, but he's not gonna be,

2844
02:11:53,359 --> 02:11:55,359
all of a sudden, like the ninth best player on

2845
02:11:55,479 --> 02:11:58,560
the roster, even if he's your third best player, which frankly,

2846
02:11:58,920 --> 02:12:02,199
that's what you want. If the Kings had their Druthers.

2847
02:12:02,399 --> 02:12:04,279
They probably want him to be their fourth best player

2848
02:12:04,279 --> 02:12:06,479
by the end of the season, behind Keegan Murray. Do

2849
02:12:06,640 --> 02:12:08,720
mas Abonis people get mad when I call him dom

2850
02:12:08,720 --> 02:12:11,720
maas Sabonis? Isn't that what people call him? By the ways,

2851
02:12:11,720 --> 02:12:13,680
if you prefer to hear that? And dearon Fox got that.

2852
02:12:14,319 --> 02:12:16,880
So I don't know what this. I am concerned about

2853
02:12:16,880 --> 02:12:19,359
the team's defense, despite I know I called them out

2854
02:12:19,359 --> 02:12:21,119
all the time, but there's way too many Kings fans

2855
02:12:21,119 --> 02:12:22,760
that just think that the Martin Rosen is better than

2856
02:12:23,000 --> 02:12:26,800
some hards for them on defense. I think with Kean Allis,

2857
02:12:26,880 --> 02:12:29,520
Keegan Murray that you can get to some core lineups

2858
02:12:29,560 --> 02:12:31,560
and Devin Carter gets healthy that you can get to

2859
02:12:31,600 --> 02:12:33,920
some core lineups and d Aaron Fox even where the

2860
02:12:33,920 --> 02:12:37,520
defense is passable, I like what this sort of indicates

2861
02:12:37,520 --> 02:12:39,119
for their offense that I think there's gonna be a

2862
02:12:39,119 --> 02:12:41,920
return to last year the Kings were okay on offense.

2863
02:12:41,960 --> 02:12:43,800
I think now they have the tools to be great

2864
02:12:43,840 --> 02:12:47,319
and transcendent again on offense. And to me, I do

2865
02:12:47,359 --> 02:12:49,279
think there's a lower floor here than maybe a lot

2866
02:12:49,319 --> 02:12:52,439
of Kings fans would like to admit. But I'm just

2867
02:12:52,479 --> 02:12:54,840
looking at it like every one of their most important

2868
02:12:54,880 --> 02:12:57,520
players are basically iron Man at this point, and so

2869
02:12:58,520 --> 02:13:00,560
this just feels like I don't know if they have

2870
02:13:01,199 --> 02:13:03,479
the high upside. I guess if you told me everyone's

2871
02:13:03,479 --> 02:13:07,159
healthy and nothing goes wrong, I'd probably still keep them

2872
02:13:07,239 --> 02:13:10,600
under fifty one victories. But I don't think that they

2873
02:13:10,640 --> 02:13:13,239
have a very low floor either, which bodes super well

2874
02:13:13,279 --> 02:13:13,600
for them.

2875
02:13:13,880 --> 02:13:16,239
Speaker 1: I feel like this is one of the narrowest ranges.

2876
02:13:16,359 --> 02:13:19,760
It's like I don't see them being below forty three,

2877
02:13:20,279 --> 02:13:23,880
and I don't see fifty. So I ended up at

2878
02:13:23,880 --> 02:13:27,760
forty six, which is an under I mean, one fewer

2879
02:13:27,760 --> 02:13:30,319
win than you in the end. That feels right to

2880
02:13:30,399 --> 02:13:34,520
me because it sort of reflects ultimately what my questions

2881
02:13:34,520 --> 02:13:37,000
have been since they made the deroz In trade, which

2882
02:13:37,039 --> 02:13:40,800
is like, yes, more talent, but I just as you know,

2883
02:13:41,239 --> 02:13:43,680
I don't think you can be someone that ever thinks

2884
02:13:43,720 --> 02:13:48,319
about fit mattering and be sure that like this is

2885
02:13:48,479 --> 02:13:52,720
a better product overall, just because there are questions about

2886
02:13:52,720 --> 02:13:56,159
sharing the ball. There are definitely defensive questions, and I

2887
02:13:56,199 --> 02:13:59,520
don't think it's realistic to say I know that DeMar

2888
02:13:59,600 --> 02:14:01,760
Dureau's and at this age will be as good as

2889
02:14:01,760 --> 02:14:03,920
he was last year, because we're like at the point

2890
02:14:03,960 --> 02:14:06,479
where like maybe it's just gone. I don't know, I

2891
02:14:06,479 --> 02:14:09,640
don't know what percentage chance that is, but just having

2892
02:14:09,680 --> 02:14:12,560
them also be they won forty six, I'm picking them

2893
02:14:12,560 --> 02:14:15,199
for forty six. I think that just feels right with

2894
02:14:15,279 --> 02:14:20,640
sort of how I view what they've done over the offseason. So, yeah,

2895
02:14:20,680 --> 02:14:22,600
like I got them, I got them one win above

2896
02:14:22,640 --> 02:14:24,600
the Warriors, So I guess you can't call me a

2897
02:14:24,640 --> 02:14:26,960
total homer and King's hater for that reason.

2898
02:14:27,079 --> 02:14:28,600
Speaker 2: The other thing, when it comes to the defense, I

2899
02:14:28,600 --> 02:14:30,239
think one of the biggest rebuttals would be they were

2900
02:14:30,319 --> 02:14:33,199
top five or top seven when Keilon Ellis was starting.

2901
02:14:33,600 --> 02:14:35,640
That was a quarter of the season, basically in the

2902
02:14:35,680 --> 02:14:38,119
latter quarter of the season when there's all sorts of noise,

2903
02:14:38,359 --> 02:14:41,119
yeah involved, And so could the Kings be competent defensively

2904
02:14:41,119 --> 02:14:43,439
over the course of an entire season, Sure, But we

2905
02:14:43,520 --> 02:14:45,520
don't just get to like, we don't just get to

2906
02:14:45,520 --> 02:14:48,079
isolate these stretches when it's most convenient for our narratives

2907
02:14:48,159 --> 02:14:50,600
unless you're you and I, because the points were making

2908
02:14:50,600 --> 02:14:52,880
that are one hundred percent accurate and salient and that

2909
02:14:53,000 --> 02:14:55,760
we're gonna do. I just there's I said that there's

2910
02:14:55,880 --> 02:14:58,760
they don't have a very low floor, but I could

2911
02:14:58,760 --> 02:15:02,239
see his team being one where it's not because of injuries,

2912
02:15:02,239 --> 02:15:06,680
but because the Fits are so much less clean or

2913
02:15:06,680 --> 02:15:09,359
squeaky clean than they were, thinking that they need to

2914
02:15:09,399 --> 02:15:12,159
reorient the roster kind of mid season and that hurts them.

2915
02:15:12,520 --> 02:15:15,199
I'm still going over I think I do. I think

2916
02:15:15,199 --> 02:15:17,600
that if they're not gonna make any changes, even if

2917
02:15:17,640 --> 02:15:20,640
it's not perfect, their floor still is pretty high. But

2918
02:15:20,840 --> 02:15:22,800
it probably could be where you said it feels like

2919
02:15:22,800 --> 02:15:26,039
it might be forty three wins. There's probably a chance

2920
02:15:26,079 --> 02:15:28,239
to me that it's it's even lower than that, but

2921
02:15:28,399 --> 02:15:30,239
still that might be like forty one or something.

2922
02:15:30,439 --> 02:15:35,159
Speaker 1: Who do you think they cannot lose? Like talking about

2923
02:15:35,239 --> 02:15:36,479
like is.

2924
02:15:36,399 --> 02:15:38,760
Speaker 2: The I really think it would be a disaster for

2925
02:15:38,800 --> 02:15:40,560
them if d Aaron Fox miss his time and we

2926
02:15:40,560 --> 02:15:42,720
even saw it last year the offense struggled when he Yeah,

2927
02:15:42,760 --> 02:15:44,279
I think it's spray and angle or whatever it was.

2928
02:15:44,520 --> 02:15:46,560
Speaker 1: I think I agree, and I think he's just their

2929
02:15:46,560 --> 02:15:50,600
best player. But like you have Malik Monk and Demarta Rozen,

2930
02:15:50,680 --> 02:15:52,880
like if we're gonna make I'm just I'm Devil's advocating

2931
02:15:52,880 --> 02:15:54,960
because I do think he's the guy they can't lose,

2932
02:15:55,000 --> 02:15:58,079
and I do think that their sort of skill set

2933
02:15:58,119 --> 02:16:01,560
balance is wonky. But like Monk and DeRozan are both

2934
02:16:01,640 --> 02:16:04,399
guys that just create offense, so you would think like, oh, yeah,

2935
02:16:04,439 --> 02:16:06,720
well we could lose the But then I don't know

2936
02:16:06,720 --> 02:16:09,720
what the answer is because it can't be Maybe it's Sabonis,

2937
02:16:10,159 --> 02:16:12,159
I guess, because then you're just playing Alex lenn or

2938
02:16:12,199 --> 02:16:16,199
Trey Lyles or you know I. But like then you

2939
02:16:16,520 --> 02:16:18,600
might be able to space. I don't know. There, it's

2940
02:16:18,600 --> 02:16:21,279
a hard question. Usually when we have a hard time

2941
02:16:21,319 --> 02:16:24,199
answering it, it means like those team's like gonna be

2942
02:16:24,239 --> 02:16:27,600
really good because they can sort of withstand an injury

2943
02:16:27,640 --> 02:16:30,079
to the guy we think is their best player. It

2944
02:16:30,119 --> 02:16:32,360
probably is Fox though he's just like he's just kind

2945
02:16:32,360 --> 02:16:34,399
of to me, like a level above everyone else they have.

2946
02:16:34,559 --> 02:16:37,000
Speaking of a level above height wise?

2947
02:16:37,680 --> 02:16:40,799
Speaker 2: What a transfer wise? That's a podcast, bro right there.

2948
02:16:41,159 --> 02:16:45,159
Speaker 1: The San Antonio Spurs, led by some French guy, have

2949
02:16:45,239 --> 02:16:49,079
an over under of thirty five and a half. Why

2950
02:16:49,159 --> 02:16:51,840
isn't this uh seventy five and a half?

2951
02:16:51,920 --> 02:16:54,159
Speaker 2: Dan, I honestly don't know. I went over I have

2952
02:16:54,239 --> 02:16:57,399
them for seventy seven wins. I have them under and

2953
02:16:57,680 --> 02:17:00,159
it kind of kills me. We all know the number

2954
02:17:00,319 --> 02:17:02,799
when Devin Vessel and Wemby and Trey Jones played together.

2955
02:17:02,879 --> 02:17:04,520
And now you get to throw Chris Paul in there

2956
02:17:04,559 --> 02:17:06,639
instead of Trey Jones, and you get forty eight or

2957
02:17:06,680 --> 02:17:09,719
forty plus minutes of competent point guard play. Den Vessel's

2958
02:17:09,719 --> 02:17:13,639
already injured, and just the surrounding talent is still in

2959
02:17:13,680 --> 02:17:18,319
general not there yet, Like how much Harrison Barnes should

2960
02:17:18,360 --> 02:17:21,879
help them. But where's Jeremy Sowen's place on this team

2961
02:17:21,959 --> 02:17:24,760
right now? And so if you're gonna play him with

2962
02:17:24,879 --> 02:17:27,159
Chris Paul and then Wemby's gonna be like, you don't

2963
02:17:27,159 --> 02:17:31,040
have any real high volume three point shooters on this team.

2964
02:17:31,040 --> 02:17:33,520
So there's a chance that the offense still struggles. The

2965
02:17:33,559 --> 02:17:35,559
other thing here is that Chris Paul is thirty nine.

2966
02:17:36,040 --> 02:17:38,280
We're just gonna trust he's gonna come in and be transformative.

2967
02:17:38,319 --> 02:17:42,159
That's not so Wemby is great through him. As you say,

2968
02:17:42,559 --> 02:17:44,920
all things are possible. I understand why it's this high.

2969
02:17:45,120 --> 02:17:48,520
There's a chance they might be so good defensively that okay, yeah,

2970
02:17:48,639 --> 02:17:50,959
they clearly it's not outside the realm of possibility that

2971
02:17:50,959 --> 02:17:53,159
they're just in the play and mix. I just have

2972
02:17:53,239 --> 02:17:56,719
a tough time reconciling they're still They've made it clear

2973
02:17:56,760 --> 02:17:59,799
that they're still in the build phase of the rebuild,

2974
02:18:00,040 --> 02:18:02,120
and it's not like they're ready to progress much further.

2975
02:18:02,479 --> 02:18:04,719
I don't see them even if they're slightly better than expected.

2976
02:18:04,719 --> 02:18:08,120
Are they gonna make a trade that helps them win games. No,

2977
02:18:08,159 --> 02:18:09,760
They're probably gonna continue to be like, well, we have

2978
02:18:09,799 --> 02:18:12,079
to see what we have in Jeremy soh In and

2979
02:18:12,200 --> 02:18:15,360
are we I'm assuming they're gonna spend heavy minutes, heavy

2980
02:18:15,399 --> 02:18:18,600
reps developing Stephan Castle at the you know, the the

2981
02:18:18,719 --> 02:18:21,399
NBA club level, and so that's another guy who might

2982
02:18:21,440 --> 02:18:25,280
potentially shrink your spacing in the half court. It's this

2983
02:18:25,319 --> 02:18:27,399
team should be better. They won twenty two last year,

2984
02:18:27,440 --> 02:18:29,120
so I have them at thirty five wins. That's a

2985
02:18:29,159 --> 02:18:33,399
thirteen win improvement. And if you're saying the players they've

2986
02:18:33,399 --> 02:18:36,399
added are thirty nine year old Chris Paul Harrison Barnes

2987
02:18:36,680 --> 02:18:39,280
and a rookie and Stephan Castle is their primary additions,

2988
02:18:39,520 --> 02:18:44,159
I think that's still adequately enough accounts for oh Wemby's

2989
02:18:44,239 --> 02:18:45,399
just ridiculous.

2990
02:18:45,680 --> 02:18:48,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd like I feel like a fraud because I'm

2991
02:18:48,920 --> 02:18:51,920
also under here at thirty five, So we've got matching

2992
02:18:52,520 --> 02:18:57,600
cowardly narrow unders here. It's just like, okay, so Wemby

2993
02:18:57,639 --> 02:19:00,959
makes a leap, right, we're adding third team wins to

2994
02:19:01,000 --> 02:19:05,280
their total from last year, and so, like I do think,

2995
02:19:05,879 --> 02:19:09,040
I do think if he is who we think he is,

2996
02:19:09,559 --> 02:19:13,639
then we probably should acknowledge that, like forty five wins

2997
02:19:13,680 --> 02:19:17,280
as possible, right, Like, it's just that could happen if

2998
02:19:17,280 --> 02:19:19,399
he does, like you know, if he hits the high

2999
02:19:19,440 --> 02:19:25,319
end of our typically outlandish projections. But like thirty is

3000
02:19:25,360 --> 02:19:28,239
also in play because of the things you mentioned, like

3001
02:19:28,319 --> 02:19:30,920
they're gonna give minutes to young guys. I don't think

3002
02:19:30,959 --> 02:19:33,000
you can count on Chris Paul to play a full season.

3003
02:19:33,600 --> 02:19:37,040
Like there is sorry, but like there is actually some

3004
02:19:37,120 --> 02:19:40,200
downside from this over under. I think we should probably

3005
02:19:40,360 --> 02:19:43,639
like respect a little bit. But I mean we're adding

3006
02:19:43,719 --> 02:19:45,360
we're adding a ton to their total, so I don't

3007
02:19:45,360 --> 02:19:47,120
feel too bad about it. But I'm with you in

3008
02:19:47,159 --> 02:19:47,559
the under.

3009
02:19:47,920 --> 02:19:50,120
Speaker 2: The thing I go back and forth on is that,

3010
02:19:50,280 --> 02:19:52,920
so like, if we believe that he's generational in the

3011
02:19:53,000 --> 02:19:56,639
vein of Lebron James and Luka Doncic, And like Luka

3012
02:19:56,680 --> 02:19:59,319
Doncic's team as a sophomore, the Mavericks ends up finishing

3013
02:19:59,360 --> 02:20:01,879
It was nonine games over five hundred in his second season,

3014
02:20:01,920 --> 02:20:04,719
and then then you're Lebron who. I think this is

3015
02:20:04,760 --> 02:20:08,159
a more accurate view of where Wemby is because Christops

3016
02:20:08,200 --> 02:20:10,559
per Thingas did play in a majority of Dallas's games

3017
02:20:10,600 --> 02:20:12,879
in twenty nineteenty twenty. The second best player on that

3018
02:20:13,239 --> 02:20:18,000
Lebron James team in Cleveland as a sophomore was I

3019
02:20:18,040 --> 02:20:22,319
guess Elgauskis, if not Drew Gooden or Jeff McGinnis. And

3020
02:20:22,360 --> 02:20:24,639
so the second best player on San Antonio, I would

3021
02:20:24,639 --> 02:20:29,040
say is Devin Vessel if he's healthy. That Lebron James

3022
02:20:29,120 --> 02:20:31,920
team in the East won forty two games. Yeah, And

3023
02:20:32,000 --> 02:20:34,120
so the fact that Wemby, I would say, doesn't have

3024
02:20:34,680 --> 02:20:38,319
a traditional co star someone who I guess I would put.

3025
02:20:38,360 --> 02:20:40,079
I'm very high on Vselles, so I'd put him on

3026
02:20:40,120 --> 02:20:42,559
the same level as Chris Tops. But just like, okay,

3027
02:20:42,600 --> 02:20:44,719
now you get into the third best player of it all.

3028
02:20:44,760 --> 02:20:46,840
Let's use the Mavericks as an analog. They were actually

3029
02:20:46,840 --> 02:20:49,639
eleven games over five hundred when Luca was a sophomore

3030
02:20:49,639 --> 02:20:51,959
in a shortened season. No less, like you don't have

3031
02:20:52,120 --> 02:20:55,559
enough of the Dorian Finney Smith's or the Tim Hardaway

3032
02:20:55,639 --> 02:20:58,000
junior shooting forty percent from three on an absurd amount

3033
02:20:58,000 --> 02:21:01,159
of volume. That was one of Maxi Kleeba's best and

3034
02:21:01,239 --> 02:21:06,280
most available seasons, by the way, So I just it's yeah,

3035
02:21:06,399 --> 02:21:09,440
it's really tough for me. I want to put them higher.

3036
02:21:09,440 --> 02:21:10,639
And if he is as good as we think he's,

3037
02:21:10,680 --> 02:21:13,040
he have forty five not outside their own possibility. But

3038
02:21:13,479 --> 02:21:16,639
Lebron James won forty two games in the East as

3039
02:21:16,639 --> 02:21:18,959
a sophomore. How much? How many are you in a

3040
02:21:19,040 --> 02:21:21,879
pencil in Wenby for with this version of the Spurs

3041
02:21:21,920 --> 02:21:23,239
in this iteration of the West.

3042
02:21:23,559 --> 02:21:25,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's the way to look at it.

3043
02:21:25,280 --> 02:21:28,760
It's like he can still make a leap and land

3044
02:21:28,840 --> 02:21:30,799
right where we got it, right, Like, it doesn't It's

3045
02:21:30,840 --> 02:21:34,000
not like us saying thirty five wins means he's gonna

3046
02:21:34,000 --> 02:21:35,959
be about the same, Like, no, he's gonna be way better.

3047
02:21:36,000 --> 02:21:37,280
I think that's the expectation.

3048
02:21:37,440 --> 02:21:41,879
Speaker 2: But so he's way better and they win thirty sure, right?

3049
02:21:41,959 --> 02:21:42,200
Speaker 1: Yeah?

3050
02:21:42,200 --> 02:21:42,719
Speaker 2: Absolutely?

3051
02:21:43,120 --> 02:21:45,760
Speaker 1: I mean freaking Vesell can Devin Vessel make it through

3052
02:21:45,760 --> 02:21:48,120
a season? Please? Can we like, can we see the

3053
02:21:48,159 --> 02:21:49,319
full year from this guy?

3054
02:21:49,840 --> 02:21:53,280
Speaker 2: He's really my whole Chris, like like my Chris Middleton

3055
02:21:53,399 --> 02:21:55,120
arc for him, Like he's really trying to stick to it,

3056
02:21:55,120 --> 02:21:57,000
but like get there. Like Chris Middleton was more durable

3057
02:21:57,040 --> 02:21:59,440
early on. Maybe he's getting the injuries out. He's doing

3058
02:21:59,479 --> 02:22:02,920
it backwards, got it wrong. Our next team is the

3059
02:22:02,920 --> 02:22:05,799
Toronto Raptors twenty nine and a half. I was gonna

3060
02:22:05,799 --> 02:22:08,760
have them way over until Yaka Peartle said, uh, they

3061
02:22:08,760 --> 02:22:10,799
don't give a shit about winning basketball games, and it

3062
02:22:10,840 --> 02:22:12,639
made people mad. No, he didn't say that. He said

3063
02:22:12,879 --> 02:22:16,799
they're not good. They're not attacking the championship, which is

3064
02:22:16,840 --> 02:22:21,120
just I appreciated it. I still have them over, which

3065
02:22:21,559 --> 02:22:23,719
I feel like I could probably you could talk me

3066
02:22:23,760 --> 02:22:26,760
into them being under. I have them at thirty three wins,

3067
02:22:27,200 --> 02:22:30,440
mostly because I believe in their top end talent. And

3068
02:22:30,479 --> 02:22:32,920
one of those top towns with best really isn't Yaka Peartle,

3069
02:22:32,959 --> 02:22:35,559
It's Scotty Barnes and Manual Quickly. I like what RJ

3070
02:22:35,719 --> 02:22:38,799
has done with them, and I really do like Grady

3071
02:22:38,840 --> 02:22:40,399
Dick too, Like I think he showed a lot, and

3072
02:22:40,399 --> 02:22:42,040
then even in his preseason game, he's hitting a lot

3073
02:22:42,079 --> 02:22:44,600
of shots off the bounce. No manual quickly know Scotty Barnes,

3074
02:22:44,639 --> 02:22:48,520
He's he's making stuff happen off the bounce. After that, though,

3075
02:22:48,559 --> 02:22:51,120
I know Raptor fans were smitten with what Jamal shed

3076
02:22:51,159 --> 02:22:54,520
has done in again, very brief what are they game

3077
02:22:54,639 --> 02:22:57,079
into the preseason at this point, I've seen the defensive

3078
02:22:57,079 --> 02:23:01,120
sequences from him. This ship gets rough. Yes, after the

3079
02:23:01,200 --> 02:23:04,959
projected starting five who is and Bruce Brown is injured?

3080
02:23:05,680 --> 02:23:08,200
And I mean, I know there's there's a manual quickly

3081
02:23:08,319 --> 02:23:10,719
r J. Barrett, Scottie Barnes, yaka peerl. I think is

3082
02:23:10,799 --> 02:23:14,879
very clearly your four best players. After that, I probably

3083
02:23:14,920 --> 02:23:17,479
think Grady Dick will be their fifth best player.

3084
02:23:17,920 --> 02:23:20,280
Speaker 1: But like, and that's not a great place to be

3085
02:23:20,280 --> 02:23:23,920
because nobody's real sure about that either. Like I agree

3086
02:23:23,959 --> 02:23:26,040
with you, but like that illustrates your point. It's like

3087
02:23:26,040 --> 02:23:27,920
we're we're talking about a fifth starter and we're already

3088
02:23:27,920 --> 02:23:28,600
at like, oh.

3089
02:23:28,479 --> 02:23:31,120
Speaker 2: I don't know, And what's the answer that would make

3090
02:23:31,120 --> 02:23:32,959
you feel comfortable if I said it was Bruce Brown,

3091
02:23:33,360 --> 02:23:36,079
Hag Baji, Kelly, Olynok, none of those names are gonna

3092
02:23:36,079 --> 02:23:38,120
make you feel comfortable, and it just gets even worse

3093
02:23:38,159 --> 02:23:41,239
once you get beyond that. Bruce Brown's injured, it's all right,

3094
02:23:41,319 --> 02:23:43,600
Like Jacoby Walters banged up right now? Like what is

3095
02:23:43,959 --> 02:23:45,879
he gonna end up being for them? How much are

3096
02:23:45,920 --> 02:23:49,079
they gonna be invested in development? That made this It

3097
02:23:49,120 --> 02:23:51,399
made it harder to kind of figure out a win total.

3098
02:23:51,440 --> 02:23:53,600
I could see their floor being a lot lower because

3099
02:23:53,600 --> 02:23:55,680
they decide it needs to be a lot lot aware

3100
02:23:55,680 --> 02:23:57,840
if they're just not great. Wouldn't shock me if they

3101
02:23:57,840 --> 02:23:59,639
tried to trade RJ. Barrett et Manuel quickly. If the

3102
02:23:59,639 --> 02:24:03,239
only person that's untouchable on this team it's Scotty Barnes. Yeah,

3103
02:24:03,399 --> 02:24:06,200
so I went over at thirty three. I don't know

3104
02:24:06,239 --> 02:24:07,319
that I feel great about it.

3105
02:24:07,280 --> 02:24:10,479
Speaker 1: Though, No, I'm I'm I'm in Lockston got him over

3106
02:24:10,680 --> 02:24:13,639
at thirty two. I mean, like they won twenty five

3107
02:24:13,799 --> 02:24:18,319
last year. I just I can't if Barnes plays at

3108
02:24:18,399 --> 02:24:21,559
or above the level he did last year and quickly

3109
02:24:21,879 --> 02:24:25,239
is you know, okay, he's actually of like, you know,

3110
02:24:25,479 --> 02:24:27,959
fifteenth or better starting point guard in the league. Like

3111
02:24:28,000 --> 02:24:29,639
I don't know we know that at all yet. But

3112
02:24:29,680 --> 02:24:31,600
if he does that, then like we're getting to thirty.

3113
02:24:31,719 --> 02:24:33,959
I just I think twenty nine and a half is

3114
02:24:34,399 --> 02:24:37,959
pretty low. They could steer into it, but but even

3115
02:24:38,319 --> 02:24:40,639
that hypothetical does involve, like, are you really going to

3116
02:24:40,680 --> 02:24:43,239
trade quickly just after you extended him? I guess like

3117
02:24:43,319 --> 02:24:47,159
if that number is palatable for other teams, sure, but

3118
02:24:47,319 --> 02:24:50,360
I and even Pertle, like, you know, he's not their

3119
02:24:50,760 --> 02:24:53,079
their best player by any stretch, but like that's a

3120
02:24:53,120 --> 02:24:56,760
serviceable starting NBA center who's like actually helpful to you

3121
02:24:56,799 --> 02:24:59,239
on both ends. I think I think that sets the

3122
02:24:59,280 --> 02:25:02,799
floor above of thirty. So I don't love it, and

3123
02:25:02,840 --> 02:25:04,680
I acknowledge they could go the other way, but I

3124
02:25:05,159 --> 02:25:07,280
think the low thirties is pretty doable for them.

3125
02:25:07,399 --> 02:25:09,040
Speaker 2: I just I don't know what this team is going

3126
02:25:09,079 --> 02:25:12,079
to be on defense, too, because Pearl's rim protection has

3127
02:25:12,120 --> 02:25:16,319
slipped over the past couple of seasons, and just after him,

3128
02:25:17,120 --> 02:25:21,200
it's Kelly Olyn, Chris Bouche, get in there, right, Chris Brusche. Oh,

3129
02:25:21,239 --> 02:25:23,799
by the way, there you go. He's their sixth best player.

3130
02:25:23,799 --> 02:25:25,200
I can't more fifth best player. I can't believe we

3131
02:25:25,239 --> 02:25:28,239
didn't mention him. But yeah, this team is you could

3132
02:25:28,280 --> 02:25:30,520
talk me into this. Doesn't this feel like this has

3133
02:25:30,559 --> 02:25:32,239
We've talked a lot about sort of the finite, the

3134
02:25:32,360 --> 02:25:34,360
narrower outcomes. Doesn't this feel like this has a wider

3135
02:25:34,479 --> 02:25:36,200
range of outcomes? Where if I told you they won

3136
02:25:36,760 --> 02:25:39,520
thirty eight, thirty nine when it really or even five hundred,

3137
02:25:39,520 --> 02:25:40,440
would that shock you?

3138
02:25:41,040 --> 02:25:43,440
Speaker 1: How do they get there? Because I've been trying to think.

3139
02:25:43,319 --> 02:25:47,360
Speaker 2: That they're healthy. Their top five is killing it. You

3140
02:25:47,399 --> 02:25:50,600
get progression from Grady Dick, maybe Jamal shadd or Jacobe

3141
02:25:50,600 --> 02:25:53,000
Walter can contribute right away. I mean when you look

3142
02:25:53,000 --> 02:25:55,879
at if everyone's healthy, I'm just let's spell out what

3143
02:25:55,920 --> 02:25:59,719
an NBA level rotation would be in no particular order.

3144
02:25:59,760 --> 02:26:04,840
You Iq Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Yaka Peertle, Grady Dick, Bruce Brown,

3145
02:26:05,200 --> 02:26:09,719
Kelly Olynik, Chris Bruschet. That's eight like NBA players, and

3146
02:26:09,719 --> 02:26:11,559
so if you hit on one of the wings, are

3147
02:26:11,559 --> 02:26:15,280
perimeter players where it's oh, can shed Average are planning minutes?

3148
02:26:15,360 --> 02:26:19,520
Or can Walter does a Baji maybe come along? I

3149
02:26:19,520 --> 02:26:19,920
don't know.

3150
02:26:20,280 --> 02:26:22,719
Speaker 1: I don't think they can be above five hundred, but

3151
02:26:22,799 --> 02:26:25,479
I do see the high thirties get like that. Yeah,

3152
02:26:25,520 --> 02:26:27,079
I mean I got them at thirty two. You're at

3153
02:26:27,120 --> 02:26:29,399
thirty three, Like, yeah, they could just have good clutch

3154
02:26:29,440 --> 02:26:31,440
luck and maybe get you know, up to the thirty

3155
02:26:31,440 --> 02:26:33,319
seven thirty eight range. So I could see that, but

3156
02:26:33,639 --> 02:26:37,760
I don't see. I don't see like the forty two

3157
02:26:37,879 --> 02:26:39,680
forty three. But yeah, a good point.

3158
02:26:39,719 --> 02:26:41,639
Speaker 2: Take the train. They have all these guys and they're

3159
02:26:41,680 --> 02:26:43,799
like second and third contracts already. They mentioned said, hey,

3160
02:26:43,840 --> 02:26:44,280
that's true.

3161
02:26:44,280 --> 02:26:47,079
Speaker 1: It's not like they're cheap. They're not like a stripped down, cheap,

3162
02:26:47,239 --> 02:26:49,239
you know, young team. It's like Barnes and quickly got there.

3163
02:26:49,479 --> 02:26:52,440
They're paid like, they're not a you know, they're expensive

3164
02:26:52,559 --> 02:26:55,079
to some extent. That takes us to the Utah Jazz

3165
02:26:55,520 --> 02:26:58,120
dan over under twenty eight and a half. This is

3166
02:26:58,159 --> 02:27:00,719
a steer into the skid too late team habitually the

3167
02:27:00,840 --> 02:27:05,479
last two years. That is a well, they're just a

3168
02:27:05,520 --> 02:27:07,239
weird team to evaluate because you don't really know what

3169
02:27:07,280 --> 02:27:08,920
they're gonna do trade wise. So where are you on

3170
02:27:08,959 --> 02:27:10,000
that twenty eight and a half.

3171
02:27:10,360 --> 02:27:13,399
Speaker 2: I'm going under, and I went comfortably under because I

3172
02:27:13,399 --> 02:27:15,600
don't think they're gonna let what's happened the past two

3173
02:27:15,680 --> 02:27:18,040
years happen again. I have them at twenty wins, which

3174
02:27:18,040 --> 02:27:20,840
would make them my worst team in the Western Conference.

3175
02:27:21,159 --> 02:27:23,200
I understand that they probably should have hired a worst

3176
02:27:23,200 --> 02:27:25,799
coach like to start off this rebuild, because Will Hardy's

3177
02:27:25,799 --> 02:27:29,239
probably too good. I just even if, like, let's just

3178
02:27:29,399 --> 02:27:32,879
look at their rotation right now, I get like Con Sexton,

3179
02:27:32,959 --> 02:27:35,479
Jordan Clark, and Larry Market and John Collins Walker Kessler

3180
02:27:35,879 --> 02:27:37,879
are probably their five best players. I don't know if

3181
02:27:37,920 --> 02:27:41,000
that's what they would actually start games with this year,

3182
02:27:41,639 --> 02:27:45,239
but like after that, I just how many minutes are

3183
02:27:45,239 --> 02:27:47,239
you gonna play like con Sext and Jordan Clarks and

3184
02:27:47,280 --> 02:27:49,120
John Collins specifically, you don't have a ton of long

3185
02:27:49,239 --> 02:27:52,000
term equity invested in them. You're trying to trade Walker

3186
02:27:52,079 --> 02:27:54,040
Kesler Apparently. This just feels like we're gonna have a

3187
02:27:54,079 --> 02:27:56,440
lot of games where it's, oh, did Johnny Juzang leave

3188
02:27:56,559 --> 02:27:59,000
the team in shot attempts or something. I think there's

3189
02:27:59,040 --> 02:28:02,239
gonna be a lot load management here. I think there's

3190
02:28:02,239 --> 02:28:05,440
eventually going to be trades. There's no way that all three,

3191
02:28:05,600 --> 02:28:08,559
all four of Walker Kessler, John Collins, Colin Sexonson, and

3192
02:28:08,639 --> 02:28:11,040
Jordan Carson finished the season on this team, And if

3193
02:28:11,040 --> 02:28:12,959
they do, I guarantee they don't. None of them finish

3194
02:28:13,040 --> 02:28:16,000
it in the in the rotation because they'll be shut down.

3195
02:28:16,159 --> 02:28:18,079
So I think the Jazz are going to get out

3196
02:28:18,120 --> 02:28:19,600
in front of this. I know you predicted that they

3197
02:28:19,680 --> 02:28:21,360
might make a win now, trade, so do you have

3198
02:28:21,360 --> 02:28:23,200
them winning like forty nine or fifty two.

3199
02:28:23,079 --> 02:28:26,520
Speaker 1: Games sixty one? No, so like they won thirty one

3200
02:28:26,600 --> 02:28:29,840
last year and me being under which I am at

3201
02:28:29,920 --> 02:28:33,920
twenty two is a statement that I'm not comfortable with

3202
02:28:33,959 --> 02:28:36,239
because they haven't done this effectively. Is that they're going

3203
02:28:36,319 --> 02:28:38,879
to do this on purpose. I like, I think finally,

3204
02:28:39,399 --> 02:28:41,760
like you know, that was my hot take, although make

3205
02:28:41,760 --> 02:28:45,840
a win now, I just I think the opportunities there.

3206
02:28:46,000 --> 02:28:48,680
I feel like they should. They should believe they have

3207
02:28:48,879 --> 02:28:52,200
missed like lottery tickets because of Wemby and because you know,

3208
02:28:52,399 --> 02:28:54,760
not so much this past season. But like, you can't

3209
02:28:54,760 --> 02:28:56,680
do it three times in a row. You can't be

3210
02:28:57,040 --> 02:29:00,000
you know, twelve and fourteen and then be like, oh

3211
02:29:00,280 --> 02:29:02,239
we got you know that you can't do it three

3212
02:29:02,280 --> 02:29:04,239
times in a row. So this will be a decision

3213
02:29:04,280 --> 02:29:07,040
on their part. And I do think the marketing security

3214
02:29:07,879 --> 02:29:13,000
like at least as far as like his perspective, it's

3215
02:29:13,040 --> 02:29:15,520
easier now because you can tell him like hey, man,

3216
02:29:15,799 --> 02:29:18,399
like you got your money. Uh, here's the plan.

3217
02:29:18,559 --> 02:29:19,719
Speaker 2: Like I presume.

3218
02:29:19,440 --> 02:29:22,479
Speaker 1: That that was discussed, like while they were negotiating that

3219
02:29:22,520 --> 02:29:24,399
extension of like this is probably what's going to look

3220
02:29:24,440 --> 02:29:26,440
like what are your thoughts? Do you want to be traded?

3221
02:29:26,479 --> 02:29:29,239
And it seems like the answer was no. You could

3222
02:29:29,239 --> 02:29:31,200
make the case that like what they told him was

3223
02:29:31,239 --> 02:29:33,360
we're going to try to win, and that's why he resigned.

3224
02:29:33,559 --> 02:29:37,479
I mean that's just as plausible. But I just it's

3225
02:29:37,799 --> 02:29:40,639
like we throw around franchise malpractice all the time. You

3226
02:29:40,680 --> 02:29:43,159
can't you can't half assed tank three years in a row.

3227
02:29:43,280 --> 02:29:44,920
You just you can't do it. I think this has

3228
02:29:44,959 --> 02:29:46,639
to be the one where they really do it on purpose.

3229
02:29:47,520 --> 02:29:49,399
Speaker 2: And I also what is their ceiling if they are

3230
02:29:49,520 --> 02:29:51,760
going forward? I know they're well coached, but like part

3231
02:29:51,840 --> 02:29:56,920
of the mid season reshufflings has been there is less talent,

3232
02:29:57,399 --> 02:30:00,879
like bankable talent on his roster. And unless you think

3233
02:30:00,879 --> 02:30:03,200
that Kyante George and Taylor Hendricks are going to really

3234
02:30:03,639 --> 02:30:05,760
make leaps this year, which possible and then that Cody

3235
02:30:05,760 --> 02:30:07,399
Williams is gonna be good right out of the gate,

3236
02:30:08,000 --> 02:30:10,399
is they're seiling much higher than like how many they

3237
02:30:10,399 --> 02:30:12,159
won last thirty one? Thirty two games.

3238
02:30:13,200 --> 02:30:16,000
Speaker 1: No, I think like absolute ceiling everything breaks, right, they

3239
02:30:16,000 --> 02:30:19,520
don't give Cody Williams and you know, Keanta George and

3240
02:30:19,559 --> 02:30:21,639
Taylor hendrixs a ton of minutes. They actually play these

3241
02:30:21,680 --> 02:30:25,520
older guys like thirty seven like it's just every break

3242
02:30:25,600 --> 02:30:28,399
goes their way. But like the flip side of that

3243
02:30:28,520 --> 02:30:31,280
is they have real cover from like a fan standpoint

3244
02:30:31,319 --> 02:30:34,559
of like we're hey, you want to see George play

3245
02:30:34,639 --> 02:30:38,040
with like I don't know, Isaiah Collier and Williams and

3246
02:30:38,159 --> 02:30:40,760
Kessler and Hendrix like bang, we'll throw them out there.

3247
02:30:41,120 --> 02:30:43,360
That those guys as a starting unit are gonna get

3248
02:30:43,360 --> 02:30:46,440
smoked by like fifteen points per hundred. But like the

3249
02:30:46,479 --> 02:30:48,840
fans will dig it. You know you can sell that now,

3250
02:30:48,879 --> 02:30:51,079
So you can you can. I don't know what you

3251
02:30:51,120 --> 02:30:53,680
do with Mark and I guess you just like bubble

3252
02:30:53,680 --> 02:30:56,239
wrap him for a year. But you can definitely like

3253
02:30:56,280 --> 02:30:58,200
get away with it if you're Utah, because you do

3254
02:30:58,280 --> 02:31:00,520
have players young players that will not help you win

3255
02:31:00,559 --> 02:31:01,600
that fans want to see.

3256
02:31:02,280 --> 02:31:04,239
Speaker 2: What's more likely if the Jays are once again an

3257
02:31:04,239 --> 02:31:07,399
over over five hundred midway at the midway point of

3258
02:31:07,399 --> 02:31:09,040
the season, which is the past two years they've had

3259
02:31:09,239 --> 02:31:11,639
a record above five hundred at different points more than

3260
02:31:11,760 --> 02:31:14,239
halfway through. Is will Hardy and the coach of the

3261
02:31:14,319 --> 02:31:16,319
year discussion or just getting fired at that point?

3262
02:31:17,440 --> 02:31:20,840
Speaker 1: I mean both. You can definitely get fired. Ask Dwayne Casey.

3263
02:31:20,879 --> 02:31:24,399
You can get fired after the year, Yeah, that like.

3264
02:31:24,959 --> 02:31:28,159
Speaker 2: That's hard the year after getting fired though, they fired

3265
02:31:28,159 --> 02:31:30,399
in fifty games in and it's I don't know, man,

3266
02:31:30,760 --> 02:31:33,399
they were forty nine. They were forty nine and one

3267
02:31:33,440 --> 02:31:35,319
at that point, like, and then.

3268
02:31:35,239 --> 02:31:37,799
Speaker 1: They didn't win the rest of the year because the

3269
02:31:37,840 --> 02:31:40,319
next guy, the interim coaches, like, I can fix this

3270
02:31:40,399 --> 02:31:40,680
for you.

3271
02:31:43,280 --> 02:31:45,440
Speaker 2: Uh, whoa, we went back to the start of this thing.

3272
02:31:45,479 --> 02:31:47,360
But that's not what we're here for. Our final team

3273
02:31:47,799 --> 02:31:50,280
as always in the alphabet, at least that's what rumor

3274
02:31:50,319 --> 02:31:54,280
has it is the Washington Wizards, which you know they're

3275
02:31:54,280 --> 02:31:56,239
over underground, is not too high. It's a twenty eight

3276
02:31:56,239 --> 02:31:58,799
point five. Where did you end up with them?

3277
02:31:59,079 --> 02:32:00,760
Speaker 1: I can't remember because I don't see him. I gotta

3278
02:32:00,760 --> 02:32:02,760
go all the way up to the east. Oh okay,

3279
02:32:02,799 --> 02:32:08,479
So I this is a team that can be like

3280
02:32:09,479 --> 02:32:13,159
deliberately just awful. If they really want to write like

3281
02:32:13,239 --> 02:32:15,639
they they have the ability to put lineups on the

3282
02:32:15,639 --> 02:32:19,639
floor that have no chance, like defensively in particular. And

3283
02:32:19,680 --> 02:32:23,920
I think everything they've done, like if you trade Danny

3284
02:32:23,920 --> 02:32:26,959
Avdia on that contract for a pick and an even

3285
02:32:27,040 --> 02:32:30,840
younger player, like, I think the signal's pretty clear about

3286
02:32:30,840 --> 02:32:33,760
what the objective is here. So twenty and a half,

3287
02:32:33,840 --> 02:32:37,040
like I'm not I guess that presumes you never trade

3288
02:32:37,879 --> 02:32:40,840
Malcolm Brogden and Kyle Kuzma and like anybody else that

3289
02:32:40,920 --> 02:32:43,440
could be an averager better NBA player on this roster.

3290
02:32:44,040 --> 02:32:46,040
I don't see that as likely given what they did

3291
02:32:46,040 --> 02:32:51,639
with Avdia. So I got them at fifteen wins just yeah,

3292
02:32:51,639 --> 02:32:54,479
he said, question mark, Yeah, fifteen. I had them a

3293
02:32:54,520 --> 02:32:58,079
little higher just because at the extremes, like I didn't

3294
02:32:58,120 --> 02:33:00,719
go into the mid to low teens until I had to.

3295
02:33:01,920 --> 02:33:06,120
But like, find me a team that has is gonna

3296
02:33:06,159 --> 02:33:09,239
start the season like at a bigger disadvantage from a

3297
02:33:09,319 --> 02:33:12,559
talent and experience standpoint than this one. Like this this

3298
02:33:12,680 --> 02:33:14,920
is it's not a revelation. This is the team everyone

3299
02:33:14,920 --> 02:33:16,319
expects to be the worst in the league.

3300
02:33:16,879 --> 02:33:18,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I have them under as well. I said that,

3301
02:33:18,760 --> 02:33:21,239
I went to thirteen. I don't think you're giving Will

3302
02:33:21,319 --> 02:33:24,479
Dawkins and Michael Winger enough credit. My whole thing is,

3303
02:33:24,479 --> 02:33:27,120
is there another team where like, what's the other team

3304
02:33:27,159 --> 02:33:29,200
where you say, well, even if they make no moves,

3305
02:33:29,719 --> 02:33:31,760
there's still gonna be way under this total. Because I

3306
02:33:31,799 --> 02:33:33,280
think a lot of people say, yeah, they'll probably trade

3307
02:33:33,360 --> 02:33:36,040
Kyle Kuzman and Jonas found Chewas and Malcolm Brogden. We

3308
02:33:36,079 --> 02:33:38,360
probably thought the same thing last year about Kyle Kuzman

3309
02:33:38,360 --> 02:33:40,840
and Tyas Jones. Both of them finished the season, and

3310
02:33:40,959 --> 02:33:42,719
I know they did go on and move Daniel Gafford.

3311
02:33:42,760 --> 02:33:45,360
I get it, But just like they're playing Alex Sard

3312
02:33:45,479 --> 02:33:47,200
to begin the year, teams like at the four, I

3313
02:33:47,200 --> 02:33:49,559
don't like, what is that gonna do? This feels like

3314
02:33:49,559 --> 02:33:51,959
they should be the worst team, like the worst defensive

3315
02:33:51,959 --> 02:33:56,159
team and in league history, as built as currently built.

3316
02:33:56,200 --> 02:33:58,479
And so I'm the reason I went to low is.

3317
02:33:58,520 --> 02:34:00,399
I actually do think that they will trade some of

3318
02:34:00,440 --> 02:34:03,520
the veterans and like ensure that Brian Keith doesn't have

3319
02:34:03,680 --> 02:34:05,559
the you know, those clubs in his bag later on

3320
02:34:05,639 --> 02:34:09,159
in the year. But even if they don't, sixteen, but

3321
02:34:09,319 --> 02:34:12,719
I just like what this team's ceiling doesn't even feel

3322
02:34:12,799 --> 02:34:16,079
like everyone's healthy, No one gets traded. This team's ceiling

3323
02:34:16,120 --> 02:34:17,760
doesn't even feel like it's twenty.

3324
02:34:17,479 --> 02:34:20,479
Speaker 1: One, right because you'd say, like, well, the defense, I

3325
02:34:20,520 --> 02:34:22,600
think the defense is like if they're not the worst

3326
02:34:22,639 --> 02:34:24,799
defense in the league, I want to know who is.

3327
02:34:25,280 --> 02:34:30,360
But like, okay, offensively, all right, Jordan Poole gets better

3328
02:34:30,399 --> 02:34:33,360
and like Kolabali takes a step and Kuzma's there all year,

3329
02:34:33,520 --> 02:34:36,719
Valentunis gives you a post up option. Like even with

3330
02:34:36,840 --> 02:34:39,239
all that, it's like, okay, so they're the twenty fifth

3331
02:34:39,559 --> 02:34:42,520
best offense, Like I just you know that, which is

3332
02:34:42,520 --> 02:34:45,239
what they were last year, twenty ninth on defense. Good job,

3333
02:34:45,280 --> 02:34:50,520
good job Jazz being thirtieth somehow inexplicably, Yeah, I mean

3334
02:34:50,879 --> 02:34:54,879
the ceiling is what like it the ceiling might be

3335
02:34:54,920 --> 02:34:57,760
the over under, like the ceiling might be twenty. I

3336
02:34:57,879 --> 02:35:00,239
just like, I don't know how you do better than

3337
02:35:00,239 --> 02:35:03,639
now with this roster and with the directive front clearly

3338
02:35:04,079 --> 02:35:07,120
from the top of like not trying to win, we're

3339
02:35:07,120 --> 02:35:13,079
gonna like so how about this, Which of Sar Carrington

3340
02:35:13,280 --> 02:35:17,280
and Kola Bali will rank outside the top five in

3341
02:35:17,399 --> 02:35:19,360
minutes played on the team this year?

3342
02:35:20,280 --> 02:35:24,879
Speaker 2: Probably Sar I feel like he'll be in a crap tout.

3343
02:35:24,719 --> 02:35:28,840
Speaker 1: Of trouble, right, Okay, great, so he'll he'll actually hurt

3344
02:35:28,840 --> 02:35:31,360
the team a bunch and then be out. So he'll

3345
02:35:31,399 --> 02:35:34,760
get in a short burst, get the other get the

3346
02:35:34,799 --> 02:35:38,159
opponent over the limit, and sit. We're gonna play these

3347
02:35:38,200 --> 02:35:41,280
guys and they're gonna just do damage, like from the jump.

3348
02:35:41,479 --> 02:35:44,120
Speaker 2: And I know that we're kind of trolling to me.

3349
02:35:44,200 --> 02:35:47,200
The Wizards are doing the right thing, like this is yeah,

3350
02:35:47,239 --> 02:35:48,680
I love with it. I want to make that clearer.

3351
02:35:48,799 --> 02:35:50,360
I'm gonna be mad if they hit the over. I

3352
02:35:50,360 --> 02:35:52,319
think that'd be bad for their future. Probably.

3353
02:35:52,840 --> 02:35:53,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, it says a.

3354
02:35:53,440 --> 02:35:56,360
Speaker 2: Lot that they could hit the over, and theoretically, I

3355
02:35:56,399 --> 02:35:58,799
know the Pistons won fourteen, all right, They're not gonna

3356
02:35:58,879 --> 02:36:00,520
hit the over and have the worst record in the league,

3357
02:36:00,559 --> 02:36:05,000
but like they could.

3358
02:36:05,200 --> 02:36:10,920
Speaker 1: Is there another team that wants fewer wins than Washington

3359
02:36:11,120 --> 02:36:13,120
like that has acted, you know what I mean? Like,

3360
02:36:13,280 --> 02:36:13,680
I don't.

3361
02:36:13,959 --> 02:36:17,120
Speaker 2: I think I think the Jazz could talk themselves into

3362
02:36:17,239 --> 02:36:18,280
needing to be that team.

3363
02:36:18,639 --> 02:36:21,079
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, yeah, but they're not positioned to do it,

3364
02:36:21,079 --> 02:36:22,600
and they got to do way more work to get

3365
02:36:22,680 --> 02:36:23,040
that bad.

3366
02:36:23,280 --> 02:36:25,000
Speaker 2: If we're being honest, there is probably a team that

3367
02:36:25,040 --> 02:36:28,600
should want it just as badly Chicago.

3368
02:36:29,159 --> 02:36:33,040
Speaker 1: Well what Chicago, what Chicago wants, and what's good for

3369
02:36:33,079 --> 02:36:34,399
it have often diverged.

3370
02:36:34,719 --> 02:36:37,040
Speaker 2: Here's a good place to wrap on on the Wizards

3371
02:36:37,040 --> 02:36:39,719
before just going to a quick recap. What's more likely

3372
02:36:40,600 --> 02:36:43,680
the Wizards win, the Wizards do not finish with a

3373
02:36:43,719 --> 02:36:50,319
bottom three record, or the Clippers finish with the worst

3374
02:36:50,319 --> 02:36:55,879
record the bottom two record. What's more likely Clippers or

3375
02:36:56,079 --> 02:36:58,680
the Wizards finishing outside the bottom four? Oh?

3376
02:36:58,799 --> 02:37:00,840
Speaker 1: So, like the Wizards are not one of the three

3377
02:37:00,879 --> 02:37:01,600
worst teams?

3378
02:37:02,040 --> 02:37:02,440
Speaker 2: Correct?

3379
02:37:03,000 --> 02:37:06,280
Speaker 1: I just I don't I don't know how that happens.

3380
02:37:06,559 --> 02:37:08,680
I think the Wizards just have to be so I

3381
02:37:08,719 --> 02:37:10,719
guess the answer. My answer has to be the Clippers,

3382
02:37:10,959 --> 02:37:14,000
because I just can't fathom how the Wizards are not

3383
02:37:14,079 --> 02:37:15,319
one of the three worst records.

3384
02:37:15,360 --> 02:37:17,719
Speaker 2: I think it would just be like shit goes sideways

3385
02:37:17,799 --> 02:37:20,280
in Detroit and Charlotte and Chicago, right, I think they're

3386
02:37:20,319 --> 02:37:23,840
all just that's like the i'd probably take. I'd take

3387
02:37:23,879 --> 02:37:26,399
the the one that I would take that the Wizards

3388
02:37:26,399 --> 02:37:28,360
finish like fourth or fifth with the fourth or fifth

3389
02:37:28,360 --> 02:37:30,719
birth worst record. But the point stands that this is

3390
02:37:30,719 --> 02:37:32,680
the team that I think is most and by the way,

3391
02:37:32,840 --> 02:37:34,879
that counts as a direction, and so it's not one

3392
02:37:34,879 --> 02:37:36,319
of these teams that are going to try and pivot

3393
02:37:36,360 --> 02:37:38,639
into a separate direction in the middle of the year.

3394
02:37:38,719 --> 02:37:42,319
So I favor good, good job Wizards. We should recap

3395
02:37:42,399 --> 02:37:45,159
here a little bit. As of right now, I've Boston

3396
02:37:45,200 --> 02:37:48,159
finishing first in the East, the Knicks at two with

3397
02:37:48,239 --> 02:37:51,559
fifty three wins, the Cavaliers at three with fifty two,

3398
02:37:51,879 --> 02:37:55,159
Affiliate four with fifty one, the Bucks at five with fifty,

3399
02:37:55,639 --> 02:37:58,479
the Pacers at six with forty eight, the Magic at

3400
02:37:58,639 --> 02:38:03,360
seventh with forty, the Heat in eighth with forty sixth,

3401
02:38:03,680 --> 02:38:07,399
and then the Hawks are ninth at thirty six, the

3402
02:38:07,479 --> 02:38:09,600
Raptors are in tenth at thirty three, and then my

3403
02:38:09,639 --> 02:38:14,079
bottom five teams in order are Charlotte at eleventh, Detroit

3404
02:38:14,120 --> 02:38:17,719
at twelfth, Chicago at thirteenth, Brooklyn at fourteenth, and the

3405
02:38:17,760 --> 02:38:19,920
Wizards at fifteenth. By the way, we didn't mention the Nets,

3406
02:38:19,920 --> 02:38:21,799
but they're probably the team that should actually want to

3407
02:38:21,840 --> 02:38:23,239
be worse, even more than the Wizards.

3408
02:38:23,280 --> 02:38:25,000
Speaker 1: We didn't even well at least equally. I don't know

3409
02:38:25,000 --> 02:38:28,559
if you can want more, all right, spot me if

3410
02:38:28,559 --> 02:38:30,760
I screw this up, because I just sorted Z to

3411
02:38:30,760 --> 02:38:34,280
a here. So my East standings go Boston with fifty

3412
02:38:34,319 --> 02:38:36,840
six wins, that's your number one seed. Cleveland is two

3413
02:38:37,079 --> 02:38:40,920
at fifty three. The Knicks are third at fifty two wins,

3414
02:38:40,959 --> 02:38:43,159
followed by the Sixers at fifty one. So there's your

3415
02:38:43,200 --> 02:38:46,200
top four. Got the Bucks as the fifth seed forty

3416
02:38:46,280 --> 02:38:50,680
nine wins, the Pacers checking at forty seven. The Magic

3417
02:38:50,760 --> 02:38:54,000
are your sixth seed if I've counted correctly, maybe seventh,

3418
02:38:54,079 --> 02:38:57,319
can't remember, now forty six wins, followed by the Heat

3419
02:38:57,360 --> 02:39:00,680
at forty five. Then all the way down that's wow,

3420
02:39:00,760 --> 02:39:02,719
that's a huge drop from me.

3421
02:39:02,879 --> 02:39:04,799
Speaker 2: I didn't even realize my So we both have.

3422
02:39:04,840 --> 02:39:07,120
Speaker 1: The Heat at eight right, yeah, and then all the

3423
02:39:07,159 --> 02:39:09,559
way down to Atlanta at thirty win fewer.

3424
02:39:09,920 --> 02:39:10,559
Speaker 2: Is that what you have?

3425
02:39:10,799 --> 02:39:13,399
Speaker 1: Yes, thirty six for Atlanta. There, then we go to

3426
02:39:13,440 --> 02:39:18,840
the Raptors thirty two pistons, twenty nine bulls, twenty six nets,

3427
02:39:19,040 --> 02:39:23,440
seventeen wizards fifteen A couple big chasms there from like

3428
02:39:23,520 --> 02:39:27,040
your play your playoff to your play into your uh,

3429
02:39:27,120 --> 02:39:30,719
just absolute dregs down there in the West. Okay, see,

3430
02:39:30,760 --> 02:39:33,239
is my number one seed at fifty nine wins, followed

3431
02:39:33,239 --> 02:39:36,000
by the Wolves, that's number two at fifty four. My

3432
02:39:36,120 --> 02:39:39,120
third seed is the Nuggets at fifty two. Man, these

3433
02:39:39,120 --> 02:39:41,319
are so like densely bunch, there's no way it actually

3434
02:39:41,319 --> 02:39:44,120
shakes out like this. The MAVs are the fourth seed

3435
02:39:44,159 --> 02:39:46,799
for me at fifty one, followed by the Suns. That's

3436
02:39:46,840 --> 02:39:49,520
your fifth seed at forty nine. The Grizzlies are six

3437
02:39:49,600 --> 02:39:53,680
that forty seven wins. The Pelicans are seventh at forty seven.

3438
02:39:53,760 --> 02:39:56,680
The Kings are your eight seed at forty six. Oh,

3439
02:39:56,719 --> 02:39:58,879
I got the Pelicans and Kings at forty six. Tie

3440
02:39:58,879 --> 02:40:02,440
breakers gonna come in there for that playing round. The

3441
02:40:02,440 --> 02:40:05,360
Warriors are next in the West at forty five, the

3442
02:40:05,479 --> 02:40:08,479
Rockets forty three, Lakers I guess I have out of

3443
02:40:08,479 --> 02:40:12,600
the plan in at forty two. Tough tough break spurs,

3444
02:40:12,600 --> 02:40:16,079
big drop there down to thirty five wins, the Clippers

3445
02:40:16,079 --> 02:40:19,680
at thirty and then I've got Portland twenty five, Utah

3446
02:40:19,799 --> 02:40:22,000
twenty two bringing up the rear in the West.

3447
02:40:23,280 --> 02:40:25,319
Speaker 2: I still can't believe you only had the Thunder under

3448
02:40:25,520 --> 02:40:26,239
sixty wins.

3449
02:40:26,239 --> 02:40:27,520
Speaker 1: That just feels egregious.

3450
02:40:27,559 --> 02:40:30,000
Speaker 2: So my West, this is actually the drop off at

3451
02:40:30,000 --> 02:40:33,520
the top. OKC at sixty five wins down to Phoenix

3452
02:40:33,559 --> 02:40:36,799
at number two at fifty four. So I have the Thundering,

3453
02:40:37,120 --> 02:40:39,600
not only I the thunder being eleven games better than

3454
02:40:39,639 --> 02:40:41,559
second place in the West and eight games better than

3455
02:40:41,600 --> 02:40:44,159
anybody else in the league. Apparently not gonna fight you.

3456
02:40:44,959 --> 02:40:47,159
The Wolves at three with fifty three, the MAVs at

3457
02:40:47,200 --> 02:40:50,920
four with fifty three, whatever tiebreaker there, Denver fifth at

3458
02:40:50,920 --> 02:40:53,639
fifty two. It feels weird having Denver in fifth. I'm

3459
02:40:53,639 --> 02:40:56,399
not gonna lie. The Pels at sixth with forty eight,

3460
02:40:56,680 --> 02:40:59,440
the Kings at seven with forty seven, the Grizzlies at

3461
02:40:59,479 --> 02:41:02,920
eight with forty four, the Lakers at nine, the Lakers

3462
02:41:02,920 --> 02:41:05,600
in rockets ninth and tenth at forty three wins apiece,

3463
02:41:05,639 --> 02:41:08,559
but the Warriors that are eleventh with forty three wins apiece.

3464
02:41:08,879 --> 02:41:11,639
The Spurs are twelfth with thirty five. I've the Clippers

3465
02:41:11,680 --> 02:41:14,879
thirteenth at thirty one, the Blazers fourteenth to twenty four,

3466
02:41:14,920 --> 02:41:17,680
and the Jazz dead last with twenty. That little gaggle

3467
02:41:17,760 --> 02:41:20,319
right there where. I have Memphis, Los Angeles, Houston, and

3468
02:41:20,360 --> 02:41:24,479
Golden State, and we're talking about seeds eight through eleven.

3469
02:41:25,319 --> 02:41:27,280
The forty four to forty three. If it's that close,

3470
02:41:27,280 --> 02:41:29,000
that would make the planan Ray super fun in the

3471
02:41:29,000 --> 02:41:30,159
Western Conference this year.

3472
02:41:30,280 --> 02:41:33,559
Speaker 1: I think that's gonna happen. The kind of the just

3473
02:41:33,680 --> 02:41:38,440
glut in that middle of the West is unavoidable.

3474
02:41:38,920 --> 02:41:41,959
Speaker 2: One of my bigger takeaways would be or my bigger

3475
02:41:42,040 --> 02:41:44,200
question is just before we wrap up, So do we

3476
02:41:44,280 --> 02:41:46,360
think that one of the Lakers or the Warriors is

3477
02:41:46,360 --> 02:41:49,159
gonna end up missing the plane? We each had one

3478
02:41:49,159 --> 02:41:50,399
of them out.

3479
02:41:50,200 --> 02:41:52,479
Speaker 1: So the only way that doesn't happen, yes, is the

3480
02:41:52,520 --> 02:41:57,440
answer is like the Spurs make that leap or the

3481
02:41:57,479 --> 02:42:00,479
Clippers hang Well, if the Clippers hang in and maybe

3482
02:42:00,520 --> 02:42:02,319
they both miss it, but I don't think we view

3483
02:42:02,360 --> 02:42:05,040
that as likely, right, So is it just the Spurs

3484
02:42:06,079 --> 02:42:09,680
or the Rockets, like one of them gets in, Because Memphis,

3485
02:42:09,760 --> 02:42:13,040
we think is definitely gonna bump somebody. I think that's

3486
02:42:13,079 --> 02:42:15,440
just you just run out of room. Unless you think

3487
02:42:15,479 --> 02:42:18,159
maybe the Pelicans slip out. I don't know. Yeah, that's

3488
02:42:18,200 --> 02:42:18,719
where we're.

3489
02:42:19,200 --> 02:42:24,799
Speaker 2: Like forget about the order. But it feels like OKAC, Phoenix, Minnesota, Dallas, Denver,

3490
02:42:25,360 --> 02:42:29,520
New Orleans, Sacramento and Memphis give you like a very

3491
02:42:29,639 --> 02:42:34,479
clear cut top eight and then it's okay. So that

3492
02:42:34,559 --> 02:42:37,120
leaves two spots for the play in, and I would

3493
02:42:37,120 --> 02:42:39,319
assume the primary contenders are gonna be I mean, you

3494
02:42:39,360 --> 02:42:43,079
could throw the Clippers in there, but Clippers, Spurs, Warriors, Rockets, Lakers,

3495
02:42:43,440 --> 02:42:46,680
so like for even like there's it's not outside the

3496
02:42:46,760 --> 02:42:49,200
rom pups with that both of them end up the plane.

3497
02:42:49,479 --> 02:42:52,239
Speaker 1: If Rockets and Spurs get in, then that's it.

3498
02:42:52,639 --> 02:42:54,600
Speaker 2: Clippers maybe like Kawhi Leonards just all of a sudden

3499
02:42:54,639 --> 02:42:56,959
healthy and last the year. And we're wrong there, but

3500
02:42:57,520 --> 02:43:00,959
fascinating exercise. We're gonna be so wrong. Don't forget before

3501
02:43:01,000 --> 02:43:02,840
you take us out of here to join our discords

3502
02:43:02,879 --> 02:43:05,120
that could be part of the over under competition that

3503
02:43:05,159 --> 02:43:06,479
we will be will be running.

3504
02:43:06,680 --> 02:43:09,079
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's easy pick and sue. We're very beatable if

3505
02:43:09,399 --> 02:43:11,719
history is any guide for this exercise, So please get

3506
02:43:11,719 --> 02:43:13,840
in there, get your get your over unders, your wind

3507
02:43:13,840 --> 02:43:16,360
totals in there so we can compare notes at the

3508
02:43:16,440 --> 02:43:18,520
end of the year and we can both Dan and

3509
02:43:18,520 --> 02:43:21,280
I can share in the shame, I guess, but also

3510
02:43:21,319 --> 02:43:25,120
the joy of having so many people participate in this exercise.

3511
02:43:25,520 --> 02:43:28,280
Thanks everybody for listening, for watching as always, as Dan said,

3512
02:43:28,360 --> 02:43:32,040
joined the discord for reasons to participate in this exercise

3513
02:43:32,079 --> 02:43:36,040
and others. If you have not done so already, rate, review, subscribe,

3514
02:43:36,200 --> 02:43:38,559
comments on YouTube. Check out the shorts that Dan so

3515
02:43:39,000 --> 02:43:45,399
meticulously curates fashions. It's it's art. It's art. If you

3516
02:43:45,879 --> 02:43:48,200
have never seen art, that's what it looks like. Tell

3517
02:43:48,239 --> 02:43:53,000
your friends, Tell your enemies. Close as usual, shouts Frank, apologies,

3518
02:43:53,200 --> 02:43:53,440
Jared