WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.399 --> 00:00:03.799 Welcome back to Beyond the Polls. This week we get 2 00:00:03.839 --> 00:00:08.119 into the redistricting weeds with real clear politics Sean Trendy. 3 00:00:08.599 --> 00:00:09.480 Let's dive in. 4 00:00:12.720 --> 00:00:15.919 Well, we just had primary super Bowl. Six states, including 5 00:00:15.960 --> 00:00:19.920 the nation's largest California, un voted on Tuesday night. And 6 00:00:20.039 --> 00:00:22.920 what did we learn. Well, first of all, we are 7 00:00:23.079 --> 00:00:26.280 learning even as you're listening to this, something we already knew, 8 00:00:26.280 --> 00:00:30.719 which is that California's vote counting system is outmoded, behind 9 00:00:30.760 --> 00:00:34.200 the times, and utterly unfit for purpose. The fact that 10 00:00:34.280 --> 00:00:39.079 we have five million votes counted as of the Wednesday 11 00:00:39.119 --> 00:00:41.880 when I'm recording this, but there's probably three to four 12 00:00:42.000 --> 00:00:45.399 million and they're not even sure left to count and 13 00:00:45.439 --> 00:00:49.119 it will take them weeks to do that. It defies belief. 14 00:00:49.240 --> 00:00:53.240 The fact is that there are countries that don't count 15 00:00:53.280 --> 00:00:56.960 all of their votes on election night, but there are 16 00:00:57.000 --> 00:01:01.039 good reasons for it. In New Zealand, they have special 17 00:01:01.079 --> 00:01:04.760 ballots that have to be collected, and they count everything 18 00:01:04.799 --> 00:01:07.120 except those special ballots and then account them all once. 19 00:01:07.159 --> 00:01:10.480 In Australia they get their vote counting done in about 20 00:01:10.480 --> 00:01:13.359 two weeks, and it's a smaller percentage of the vote 21 00:01:13.400 --> 00:01:19.040 of late arriving male ballots or early cast ballots that 22 00:01:19.159 --> 00:01:21.840 hadn't been tallied on election nine. Now, the fact that 23 00:01:21.879 --> 00:01:28.359 California takes so long is just unbelievable, and at some 24 00:01:28.519 --> 00:01:32.840 point one has to think that if you can't perform 25 00:01:32.879 --> 00:01:35.519 your self, reform will be forced upon you. And so 26 00:01:35.560 --> 00:01:38.519 what that means is that in California at least there 27 00:01:38.519 --> 00:01:41.640 are races that we won't know for a week or 28 00:01:41.719 --> 00:01:45.920 so who's going to make the final two in terms 29 00:01:45.959 --> 00:01:48.480 of getting to the general election, because they have an 30 00:01:48.519 --> 00:01:51.560 all party primary, and you can have two Democrats or 31 00:01:51.599 --> 00:01:55.200 two Republicans or even independence. And this may happen in 32 00:01:55.280 --> 00:01:59.519 a key congressional district that Kevin Kiley, who is a Republican, 33 00:02:00.040 --> 00:02:03.680 well he was a Republican, he switched to being an independent. 34 00:02:04.000 --> 00:02:07.519 And as we speak, Kevin Kylie is in first place 35 00:02:07.680 --> 00:02:10.680 in the sixth Congressional district and a Republican who spent 36 00:02:10.759 --> 00:02:13.159 almost no money but was the only person on the 37 00:02:13.199 --> 00:02:17.080 ballot with a Republican after his name is in second. 38 00:02:18.439 --> 00:02:21.520 One expects that because of the large number of ballots 39 00:02:21.560 --> 00:02:24.199 that are out and the fact that many of them 40 00:02:24.400 --> 00:02:28.520 are likely to tilt Democrat, that the highest ranking Democrat 41 00:02:28.560 --> 00:02:34.199 will probably pass the Republican and get in the race 42 00:02:34.240 --> 00:02:38.039 against Kylie. Probably not be a case where Kylie slips 43 00:02:38.039 --> 00:02:41.280 out of the race entirely, but the fact that we'll 44 00:02:41.280 --> 00:02:43.560 have to wait two maybe three weeks before we. 45 00:02:43.639 --> 00:02:44.479 Know this is. 46 00:02:46.280 --> 00:02:50.439 One of the strangest and most unacceptable things about California voting. 47 00:02:50.639 --> 00:02:55.319 But what we know from California is that the fear 48 00:02:55.360 --> 00:02:57.080 that Democrats had that there was going to be a 49 00:02:57.120 --> 00:03:01.400 lockout ended up being fictional. Steve Hill will probably finish 50 00:03:01.520 --> 00:03:05.919 second again because of the tilt of late arriving ballots 51 00:03:05.919 --> 00:03:08.199 that tend to be more Democratic in that state. He'll 52 00:03:08.199 --> 00:03:12.759 probably finish second to Chavier Bashera, but will also probably 53 00:03:12.759 --> 00:03:16.240 be Tom Steyer. As I'm recording this, Hilton has about 54 00:03:16.240 --> 00:03:18.800 a four hundred thousand vote lead over styr Stier has 55 00:03:18.840 --> 00:03:21.319 been getting under twenty percent of the vote. Even with 56 00:03:21.400 --> 00:03:24.560 a Democratic lead. There's no reason to think that Stire's 57 00:03:24.639 --> 00:03:28.439 suddenly going to overtake bsher and become the choice of 58 00:03:28.520 --> 00:03:31.919 all these voters who voted late, which suggests that he'll 59 00:03:32.039 --> 00:03:36.159 narrow the gap, but he probably will not win the 60 00:03:36.280 --> 00:03:41.400 remaining three to four million votes by the fifteen percent 61 00:03:41.599 --> 00:03:45.120 margin that he would need over Hilton to surpass him, 62 00:03:45.319 --> 00:03:48.719 particularly since he's been getting under twenty percent of the vote. Absolutely, 63 00:03:48.719 --> 00:03:53.560 it justifies belief that his margin would go his share 64 00:03:53.599 --> 00:03:55.280 the vote would go up so much and Hilton's wuld 65 00:03:55.280 --> 00:03:58.000 declined so much that there would be a fourteen point 66 00:03:58.039 --> 00:04:00.000 differential over the remaining vote. 67 00:04:00.159 --> 00:04:01.080 So we're going to. 68 00:04:01.080 --> 00:04:04.120 See whether or not a Republican can win in California. 69 00:04:04.199 --> 00:04:07.520 Common wisdom holes that he can't. I would say, as 70 00:04:07.560 --> 00:04:11.319 much as I personally know Steve and like and respect him, 71 00:04:11.840 --> 00:04:14.240 I would give him a minimal chance. But the fact is, 72 00:04:14.319 --> 00:04:16.399 and this is a little known fact unless you stare 73 00:04:16.439 --> 00:04:18.560 at polls all the time. But of course that's one 74 00:04:18.600 --> 00:04:20.879 of the reasons you listen to this podcast because I do, 75 00:04:21.480 --> 00:04:25.879 is that majority of Californians say they're unhappy with Governor 76 00:04:25.920 --> 00:04:29.600 Newsom's performance and that they're unhappy with the direction of the 77 00:04:29.600 --> 00:04:33.120 state is going on. It's not a huge majority, but 78 00:04:33.399 --> 00:04:36.399 that would be Hilton's angle, is to say, you know 79 00:04:36.480 --> 00:04:40.399 you're unhappy one change, why don't you elect a real 80 00:04:40.519 --> 00:04:44.439 change agent, probably enough to maybe have him do better 81 00:04:44.680 --> 00:04:47.560 than a Republican might ordinarily do even in a bad 82 00:04:47.879 --> 00:04:50.560 year for Republicans, which is what this is shaping up 83 00:04:50.600 --> 00:04:54.040 to be. But at least he gets the one on 84 00:04:54.040 --> 00:04:57.439 one chance to make his case that he wants and 85 00:04:57.519 --> 00:05:00.879 that is something that the primary has made clear. So 86 00:05:00.959 --> 00:05:03.439 other than that, what do we have we learned? Well, 87 00:05:03.560 --> 00:05:06.160 the first thing I'd say we've learned is that Donald 88 00:05:06.199 --> 00:05:11.079 Trump is not invincible. That in Iowa, Donald Trump came 89 00:05:11.079 --> 00:05:14.879 in at the last minute to endorse a Congressman, Randy Fienstra. 90 00:05:15.040 --> 00:05:19.240 There has been a poll that came out that had 91 00:05:19.399 --> 00:05:28.519 Fienstra behind a farmer named Daklahn, and Trump came in 92 00:05:28.560 --> 00:05:31.639 with his full and complete and total endorsement for Fienstro. 93 00:05:31.720 --> 00:05:34.879 And since Iowa has early voting, but it's not a 94 00:05:34.959 --> 00:05:38.040 huge early voting, I think most observers and I count 95 00:05:38.040 --> 00:05:41.040 myself as one, thought, Okay, well, Fienstree may be behind 96 00:05:41.079 --> 00:05:44.560 by a couple of points, but you should expect Republicans 97 00:05:44.600 --> 00:05:48.480 to hear the endorsement and get in line as they 98 00:05:48.480 --> 00:05:51.879 have everywhere else and back Fienstrom. In fact, you found 99 00:05:52.160 --> 00:05:55.199 the opposite. In fact, in a number of counties as 100 00:05:55.199 --> 00:05:58.800 you looked, Fienstro did better in the early voting than 101 00:05:58.839 --> 00:06:01.319 he did in the election voting and long beat him, 102 00:06:02.199 --> 00:06:08.079 not by very much. It was by about under a point. 103 00:06:09.600 --> 00:06:14.519 But it is telling that President's endorsement did not. 104 00:06:17.279 --> 00:06:18.199 Carry through. 105 00:06:18.319 --> 00:06:21.120 And why do I think that might be? Well, as 106 00:06:21.160 --> 00:06:24.759 I say in my newsletter, Margin of Victory, which comes 107 00:06:24.759 --> 00:06:27.800 out every Wednesday morning through the Washington Post, but you 108 00:06:27.839 --> 00:06:30.000 don't have to be a Post subscriber to get it. 109 00:06:30.160 --> 00:06:33.040 Just sign up and you will get it. Lon ran 110 00:06:33.160 --> 00:06:36.079 a campaign where he wasn't trying to be more Maga 111 00:06:36.120 --> 00:06:39.680 than now. His campaign. Go to his website and he'll 112 00:06:39.720 --> 00:06:44.000 be talking about local issues. He talks about Maha, he 113 00:06:44.079 --> 00:06:49.040 talks about ending reducing rates of cancer, he talks about 114 00:06:49.759 --> 00:06:53.439 preventing out of staters from buying Iowa's farmland. In other words, 115 00:06:53.480 --> 00:06:59.160 he had a very very unique Iowa focus identity, and 116 00:06:59.560 --> 00:07:02.079 it proved to be persuasive to a lot of people. 117 00:07:03.160 --> 00:07:09.120 And I think that's an interesting counter cultural, counterintuitive factor, 118 00:07:09.160 --> 00:07:12.600 which is that so many Republicans are running as more 119 00:07:12.680 --> 00:07:15.759 Magi than Now or running as Magalite. And it may 120 00:07:15.879 --> 00:07:18.439 very well be that if you've defined that you're playing 121 00:07:18.480 --> 00:07:21.360 the Maggie game, and the Maga Master lays down the 122 00:07:21.439 --> 00:07:24.079 laws to which of the contenders he likes, that the 123 00:07:24.120 --> 00:07:26.399 Maga Master wins the Maggi game. But if you're not 124 00:07:26.439 --> 00:07:29.480 playing the Maggie game, maybe you can win the bigger game. 125 00:07:29.879 --> 00:07:32.959 It'll be interesting to see whether other candidates begin to 126 00:07:33.120 --> 00:07:35.839 try and do that, which is to think outside the box. 127 00:07:36.000 --> 00:07:37.759 Of course, it has to be authentic and it has 128 00:07:37.800 --> 00:07:41.920 to be real. Zachlon has a very persuasive biography as 129 00:07:41.959 --> 00:07:46.720 somebody who came from a farm, longtime family farm. The 130 00:07:46.759 --> 00:07:50.040 family had to sell and after he made his money, 131 00:07:50.040 --> 00:07:53.160 he went back and bought the family farm. So he 132 00:07:53.199 --> 00:07:57.120 has a very authentic Iowa story to tell. I don't 133 00:07:57.120 --> 00:08:01.279 think you can make a silk out of a sow's ear, 134 00:08:01.480 --> 00:08:05.879 But for people who can find something that's unusual and 135 00:08:06.000 --> 00:08:11.079 different and sell that to Republican voters, it may very 136 00:08:11.079 --> 00:08:13.639 well be that there's room even in this Republican party. 137 00:08:13.720 --> 00:08:16.720 But as it is, all we know is that Donald 138 00:08:16.759 --> 00:08:19.920 Trump took his first loss in his endorsement. He won 139 00:08:19.959 --> 00:08:24.199 many other endorsements. His endorsed choice in Montana won easily 140 00:08:24.240 --> 00:08:27.839 defeated the secretary of State and a former state senator 141 00:08:28.439 --> 00:08:31.959 to get the nomination in the Montana's first congressional district. 142 00:08:32.159 --> 00:08:35.399 But the fact is the king can be beaten, and 143 00:08:35.519 --> 00:08:41.240 zach Long perhaps has given us a Roadmack. What's the 144 00:08:41.279 --> 00:08:44.159 other thing that we've learned along. What we've learned is 145 00:08:44.159 --> 00:08:48.399 that the civil war or the insurgency in the Democratic 146 00:08:48.480 --> 00:08:53.200 Party between an establishment and the progressives is nowhere near 147 00:08:53.279 --> 00:08:57.679 in them. You had battlefront after battlefront, and in most 148 00:08:57.720 --> 00:09:02.120 cases the establishment candidate came out on top. But of 149 00:09:02.159 --> 00:09:05.759 course the Democratic establishment candidate tends to be on the 150 00:09:05.840 --> 00:09:10.200 left anyway. And so when you had somebody like Karen 151 00:09:10.279 --> 00:09:15.279 Bass defeat Nithia Rahman's battle to win a spot in 152 00:09:15.320 --> 00:09:18.679 the runoff in LA's mayor race, it's not because Karen 153 00:09:18.720 --> 00:09:22.759 Bass is some screaming centrist. It's that she's liberal enough 154 00:09:23.000 --> 00:09:28.559 or progressive enough to prevent a progressive from unseeing her. 155 00:09:29.440 --> 00:09:32.320 But what we're seeing is, first of all, progressives do 156 00:09:32.519 --> 00:09:39.159 breakthrough sometimes. The Bernie AOC choice defeated the establishment choice 157 00:09:39.200 --> 00:09:43.600 in Montana one, which may be disturbing to Democrats because 158 00:09:44.039 --> 00:09:47.279 that is the more democratic seat and it is just 159 00:09:47.399 --> 00:09:50.279 democratic enough that this is a way year they can 160 00:09:50.360 --> 00:09:52.480 think about carrying it. It's the sort of seat that 161 00:09:52.600 --> 00:09:56.080 John Tester, for example, could have carried, or Steve Bullock 162 00:09:56.360 --> 00:09:59.519 could have carried. But you're not running John tester or 163 00:09:59.559 --> 00:10:02.840 Steve b Look, now you're running AOC Bernie left wing 164 00:10:02.960 --> 00:10:07.600 candidate in that seat. You had a case in New 165 00:10:07.679 --> 00:10:12.399 Jersey where Adam Hammawe is the nominee and the putative 166 00:10:12.440 --> 00:10:16.879 congressman in his very safe Democratic seat in central New Jersey, Trenton, 167 00:10:17.000 --> 00:10:20.960 Princeton and some areas going into the southern parts. 168 00:10:21.159 --> 00:10:22.320 Of the Newark area. 169 00:10:23.440 --> 00:10:27.679 And he's a person who was endorsed by Bernie Democratic 170 00:10:27.720 --> 00:10:32.360 Socialists AOC, and it wasn't really closed. You know, he 171 00:10:32.480 --> 00:10:35.759 was the only candidate who ran well in all parts 172 00:10:35.799 --> 00:10:37.919 of the district. He got twenty eight percent of the vote, 173 00:10:38.000 --> 00:10:41.559 nearly double what the second place candidate. That's a thirteen 174 00:10:41.639 --> 00:10:44.080 way primary, and one guy got twenty eight percent of 175 00:10:44.080 --> 00:10:47.360 the vote, but nobody else there wasn't even a strong challenger. 176 00:10:47.399 --> 00:10:50.639 So the fact is that you've got examples where the 177 00:10:50.759 --> 00:10:54.639 establishment candidate did well, but you've got these examples where 178 00:10:54.679 --> 00:10:58.120 the progressors breakthrough. And another example is in California where 179 00:10:58.159 --> 00:11:04.480 you had a progressive backed challenger, Randy Viegas, who is 180 00:11:04.600 --> 00:11:10.200 not yet clear he is running against State Senator jez 181 00:11:10.320 --> 00:11:14.399 Meet Baines to take on David Valadeo in California's twenty 182 00:11:14.399 --> 00:11:17.200 second district he has had, but there's so many ballots 183 00:11:17.240 --> 00:11:20.600 out he could lose that lead. And of course, again 184 00:11:20.879 --> 00:11:28.039 in a moderate too moderately conservative, but Democratic leaning farm area, 185 00:11:28.960 --> 00:11:33.039 the argument would be, you'd rather face as a Republican 186 00:11:33.440 --> 00:11:36.879 valade would clearly rather face the extremists than the person 187 00:11:36.960 --> 00:11:43.159 who can't be as caricatured in an ad. And then 188 00:11:43.159 --> 00:11:45.919 you had the eighty one year old Doris Matt Suey, 189 00:11:46.279 --> 00:11:50.080 who is right now leading with about a third of 190 00:11:50.120 --> 00:11:53.120 the vote, and it looks like she will face another 191 00:11:53.159 --> 00:11:58.840 Democrat in the general election, a young Sacramento City councilwoman 192 00:11:59.720 --> 00:12:02.840 who is running as an unabashed progressive as well as 193 00:12:02.879 --> 00:12:06.000 being somebody who is forty years younger than the incumbent, 194 00:12:06.320 --> 00:12:08.440 and may very well win in the fall. But at 195 00:12:08.440 --> 00:12:11.480 the very least, even when the establishment wins, they have 196 00:12:11.519 --> 00:12:14.840 to look over their shoulder and see where the progressives are. 197 00:12:14.840 --> 00:12:17.120 Because even when the progressives are losing, as they have 198 00:12:17.320 --> 00:12:21.120 in most of their challenges, they're running strongly. It's not 199 00:12:21.200 --> 00:12:23.799 like you can say, well, here's this DSA back candidate 200 00:12:23.840 --> 00:12:26.039 and they get eight percent of the boat. There are 201 00:12:26.279 --> 00:12:30.480 a couple of examples of that there was, but you 202 00:12:30.559 --> 00:12:34.960 see many more examples of a progressive candidate either winning 203 00:12:35.120 --> 00:12:39.000 or coming close or doing and getting doing well. And 204 00:12:39.039 --> 00:12:43.600 when you have that consistent fire, even victories by the establishment, 205 00:12:44.200 --> 00:12:49.000 if they're unimpressive, victories means that they escape not by 206 00:12:49.080 --> 00:12:53.840 the skin of their teeth, but they escape without ease. 207 00:12:54.320 --> 00:12:57.840 And every victory for an insurgent encourages more insurgents. The 208 00:12:57.879 --> 00:13:01.840 fact is Homawe was endorsed by virtually every member of 209 00:13:01.879 --> 00:13:07.480 the squad. Chris rab Even, who had been elected or 210 00:13:07.559 --> 00:13:09.840 nominated and will be elected in November in the most 211 00:13:09.879 --> 00:13:14.200 democratic seat in the country in Pennsylvania, was also a 212 00:13:14.240 --> 00:13:18.600 squad endorsed candidate, and he endorsed HOMOWI. When you take 213 00:13:18.639 --> 00:13:21.759 a look at who's being ded the squad or squad 214 00:13:21.799 --> 00:13:24.639 adjacent people are going to be doubling this time in 215 00:13:24.679 --> 00:13:27.960 the House. And that's even under a worst case scenario. 216 00:13:28.120 --> 00:13:31.480 For that, there's so many progressive challengers that are on 217 00:13:31.600 --> 00:13:33.960 the ballot in the next month well have much better sense. 218 00:13:34.320 --> 00:13:38.360 So if the Democratic establishment wins three quarters of these battles, 219 00:13:38.720 --> 00:13:42.080 I guess that's a good sign for the Democratic establishment. 220 00:13:42.519 --> 00:13:44.240 But for people who. 221 00:13:44.080 --> 00:13:47.879 Had virtually no representation in the House of Representatives ten 222 00:13:48.000 --> 00:13:51.799 years ago. To be adding two five eight members to 223 00:13:51.960 --> 00:13:56.279 their ranks every two years is a sign of particular growth. 224 00:13:56.440 --> 00:13:58.720 And this is going to be particularly important going to 225 00:13:58.840 --> 00:14:02.519 twenty twenty eight because you look and then it was 226 00:14:02.519 --> 00:14:05.480 one name I haven't mentioned. I'm going to mention him now, 227 00:14:05.519 --> 00:14:09.960 and that's Roe Connell. Rocanna is a congressman from the 228 00:14:10.039 --> 00:14:14.639 Silicon Valley. He originally ran as a business friendly candidate, 229 00:14:14.720 --> 00:14:19.799 but once in office, became one of the nation's leading progressives. 230 00:14:20.120 --> 00:14:25.039 He has been active nationally. You will see Rocanna's endorsement 231 00:14:25.080 --> 00:14:28.919 behind virtually every progressive challenger in the country, and that 232 00:14:29.039 --> 00:14:31.639 means he's been rumored to want to run for president, 233 00:14:32.120 --> 00:14:34.879 and he is making the sort of moves one would 234 00:14:34.919 --> 00:14:37.399 expect if one is going to run for president, and 235 00:14:37.440 --> 00:14:40.399 he's making friends across the country, just as you would 236 00:14:40.440 --> 00:14:42.399 need to if you're planning is to run for president. 237 00:14:43.000 --> 00:14:45.480 When I take a look at the Democratic primary, I 238 00:14:45.559 --> 00:14:48.519 look at the three people leading every pole, Kamala Harris, 239 00:14:48.559 --> 00:14:51.200 Gavin Newsom, and people to judge, and I see people 240 00:14:51.240 --> 00:14:55.639 who are generally trying to straddle the lane between center, 241 00:14:55.720 --> 00:15:01.519 left and left. And that's probably the name strategy. But 242 00:15:02.240 --> 00:15:06.919 I've been following politics all my life, and typically the 243 00:15:07.000 --> 00:15:11.279 surprise candidate in the raids is the candidate who captures 244 00:15:11.320 --> 00:15:16.480 the imagination of what I call the unserved constituency. That is, 245 00:15:16.559 --> 00:15:18.519 there's a lot of people in a party, but they 246 00:15:18.519 --> 00:15:22.759 don't have anyone who's competing for them. They will flock 247 00:15:22.879 --> 00:15:24.720 to somebody who competes for them. 248 00:15:24.799 --> 00:15:24.960 You know. 249 00:15:25.000 --> 00:15:28.080 Donald Trump was somebody who ran that to the nomination 250 00:15:28.279 --> 00:15:31.720 because there was a massive unserved constituency that we would 251 00:15:31.799 --> 00:15:36.240 now call maga. It was this accumulation agglomeration of economic 252 00:15:36.279 --> 00:15:41.000 populace and cultural nationalists at the time, and he wrote 253 00:15:41.000 --> 00:15:44.720 it to victory. Mike Huckabee and Rick Santoum wrote the 254 00:15:44.759 --> 00:15:47.759 Evangelicals to victory. When everyone was trying to be some 255 00:15:47.799 --> 00:15:52.919 sort of Tea party person or or moderate moderate business 256 00:15:53.080 --> 00:15:59.799 establishment or Republican. Howard Dean ran up almost looked as 257 00:15:59.840 --> 00:16:04.360 the in November of two thousand and three by being 258 00:16:04.720 --> 00:16:07.600 the Then we would call it the liberals, but now 259 00:16:07.639 --> 00:16:09.759 it would be the progressive wing running. As he said 260 00:16:09.759 --> 00:16:13.279 that I'm running as the Democratic for the democratic wing 261 00:16:13.320 --> 00:16:17.200 of the Democratic Party, and he captured the imagination or 262 00:16:17.240 --> 00:16:21.840 people wanted full throated liberalism. Well, there's a significant constituency 263 00:16:21.879 --> 00:16:25.039 that wants full throated progressivism. That's what we're seeing every 264 00:16:25.639 --> 00:16:29.440 primary or we have that challenge. And how the Democrats 265 00:16:29.559 --> 00:16:32.480 navigate this in twenty twenty seven and they'll run up 266 00:16:32.480 --> 00:16:35.559 to twenty twenty eight is going to be fascinating and 267 00:16:35.679 --> 00:16:40.600 potentially determinative of the outcome. Millions of things determined the 268 00:16:40.639 --> 00:16:44.240 presidential election outcomes, but this is probably one of the 269 00:16:44.480 --> 00:16:48.799 known unknowns that is least discussed. And every week when 270 00:16:48.799 --> 00:16:52.600 there's a primary, we get scorecard as to who's ahead 271 00:16:52.639 --> 00:16:54.639 and what the strength of the insurgency is. 272 00:16:54.679 --> 00:16:57.360 And let me tell you, the insurgency is not going 273 00:16:57.399 --> 00:16:58.200 away any terms. 274 00:17:04.640 --> 00:17:07.440 Well, twenty twenty six mid term cycle may be known 275 00:17:07.519 --> 00:17:09.079 for a lot of things. That may be known for 276 00:17:09.160 --> 00:17:11.480 a blue wave, that may be known for an incredible 277 00:17:11.519 --> 00:17:14.880 Republican co recovery after they looked like they might be 278 00:17:14.920 --> 00:17:17.599 hit by a blue wave. But what it will certainly 279 00:17:17.640 --> 00:17:20.200 be known for is the at least in the last 280 00:17:20.240 --> 00:17:26.559 few decades, unprecedented scope and sweep of mid decatal redistricting. 281 00:17:26.799 --> 00:17:28.759 And here to talk to us about that and talk 282 00:17:28.799 --> 00:17:31.720 to us especially about how we can draw districts so 283 00:17:31.759 --> 00:17:35.119 that we don't have partisan jerry mandering skewing the House 284 00:17:35.599 --> 00:17:39.799 is redistricting expert and political analyst Sean Trendy, who is 285 00:17:39.839 --> 00:17:43.839 the senior elections analyst at Real Clear Politics. Sean, welcome 286 00:17:43.920 --> 00:17:44.480 back to be. 287 00:17:44.480 --> 00:17:45.039 On the polls. 288 00:17:45.400 --> 00:17:46.519 Hey, thanks for having me. 289 00:17:47.480 --> 00:17:50.599 Well, most people know you through your political analysis. You 290 00:17:50.640 --> 00:17:52.960 know you do write and have written for many, many years, 291 00:17:53.000 --> 00:17:59.119 excellent pieces at RCP and also with your visiting scholarship 292 00:17:59.279 --> 00:18:01.640 or professorship. 293 00:18:01.680 --> 00:18:03.000 I'm not sure scholarship. 294 00:18:03.400 --> 00:18:06.599 You're the visiting scholar since you have a PhD at 295 00:18:06.599 --> 00:18:10.839 the American Enterprise Institute. But you have drawn plans and 296 00:18:11.000 --> 00:18:15.240 you were one of the two architects of the reinstated 297 00:18:15.559 --> 00:18:18.440 Virginia Plan that those of us in the Commonwealth of 298 00:18:18.519 --> 00:18:23.279 Virginia will be voting under in the ELECTIONSYS November. Can 299 00:18:23.319 --> 00:18:26.759 you tell us a little bit about your experience and 300 00:18:27.240 --> 00:18:30.440 first how you came to that position and secondly how 301 00:18:30.559 --> 00:18:33.480 you approached the problem. 302 00:18:33.920 --> 00:18:36.079 Yeah, it was. It was a lot of fun actually, 303 00:18:37.839 --> 00:18:43.200 but it was eye opening because you know election Twitter, 304 00:18:43.440 --> 00:18:45.200 I did a lot of what they do right, just 305 00:18:45.319 --> 00:18:47.039 drew maps. I was like, hey, look you can do 306 00:18:47.079 --> 00:18:49.119 this or this or why did those fools do this. 307 00:18:50.480 --> 00:18:53.519 It's a nothing to sit down and get into the 308 00:18:53.640 --> 00:18:56.559 nitty gritty of how a district will actually be drawn 309 00:18:56.720 --> 00:18:59.720 when you know it's going to actually be used in 310 00:18:59.680 --> 00:19:03.920 an election. And we were fortunate because we were insulated 311 00:19:03.960 --> 00:19:06.400 from political concerns, so we didn't even have to deal 312 00:19:06.440 --> 00:19:10.559 with like, you know, Representative Bubba who wants his cousin's 313 00:19:10.599 --> 00:19:13.839 gas station in this district just because and. 314 00:19:13.920 --> 00:19:16.799 Just to jump that's because you were appointed along with 315 00:19:16.839 --> 00:19:22.279 the Democrat Bernie Groffman, to be the two special Masters 316 00:19:22.319 --> 00:19:26.000 by the Virginia State Supreme Court once every other avenue 317 00:19:26.039 --> 00:19:31.519 of redistricting had been exhausted in inability to do anything. 318 00:19:32.000 --> 00:19:36.559 That's right, The Virginia Constitution now has an independent commission. 319 00:19:36.960 --> 00:19:40.279 It deadlocked, and when it's deadlocked, it throws it to 320 00:19:40.279 --> 00:19:43.079 the Supreme Court. Well, the Supreme Court justices didn't want 321 00:19:43.079 --> 00:19:47.079 to draw the maps themselves, and so they had each 322 00:19:47.160 --> 00:19:51.079 party nominated a special Master. The first thing, well, the 323 00:19:51.200 --> 00:19:53.680 nominated three in the court selected one from each. Listen, 324 00:19:53.720 --> 00:19:55.440 the first thing they told us is, okay, you are 325 00:19:55.480 --> 00:19:58.240 no longer the nominees of the Republican or the Democratic Party. 326 00:19:58.279 --> 00:20:01.440 You are special Masters of the Commonwealth in Virginia, and 327 00:20:01.480 --> 00:20:05.960 so we sat down and the first thing we would 328 00:20:05.960 --> 00:20:08.359 have wanted to do would have been to, you know, 329 00:20:08.440 --> 00:20:14.880 do a complete VRA analysis Voting Rights Act, which is 330 00:20:14.920 --> 00:20:18.559 a very complex, time intensive analysis, and as it turned out, 331 00:20:18.559 --> 00:20:20.920 we just didn't have time to do that. We were 332 00:20:20.920 --> 00:20:25.079 appointed shortly before Thanksgiving and we had to draw something 333 00:20:25.119 --> 00:20:29.599 like one hundred and seventy districts, get public comment, and 334 00:20:29.680 --> 00:20:32.200 draw them again. So, long story short, we took that. 335 00:20:32.400 --> 00:20:36.359 Because you weren't just doing congressional district right, the legislature 336 00:20:36.799 --> 00:20:39.440 at both houses of the legislature as well, that's. 337 00:20:39.279 --> 00:20:42.240 Right, the state Senate, which is forty in the state House, 338 00:20:42.240 --> 00:20:46.400 which I think is one hundred, Yeah, it's one hundred. 339 00:20:46.400 --> 00:20:50.720 North Carolina is one hundred and twenty. So so it 340 00:20:50.759 --> 00:20:54.839 was a challenging task, but we started. We said instead, 341 00:20:54.920 --> 00:20:57.319 and I'm given how things went, I'm glad we did this. 342 00:20:58.599 --> 00:21:04.039 We said, I bet that if we constrain ourselves to 343 00:21:04.119 --> 00:21:08.599 good government traditional redistricting principles, we're going to draw a 344 00:21:08.640 --> 00:21:11.400 map that maybe has a touch of a Republican bias, 345 00:21:11.440 --> 00:21:13.759 but not much of one in Virginia, and that is 346 00:21:13.799 --> 00:21:17.519 still going to elect a lot of minority members to 347 00:21:17.880 --> 00:21:21.759 the state legislature, and so it was a pretty straightforward 348 00:21:21.960 --> 00:21:25.319 set of guidelines we had. We said, we aren't going 349 00:21:25.359 --> 00:21:29.000 to split counties more than we have to. When we 350 00:21:29.039 --> 00:21:31.480 go into a municipality, we're going to draw within that 351 00:21:31.599 --> 00:21:34.759 municipality before we exit it. We're going to fill it 352 00:21:34.799 --> 00:21:37.319 up before we exit it. So don't split towns and 353 00:21:37.359 --> 00:21:41.160 cities unless you have to. We made a rule that 354 00:21:41.200 --> 00:21:44.039 we weren't going to cross the Blue Ridge more than 355 00:21:44.039 --> 00:21:46.359 we had to, because A it's kind of a community 356 00:21:46.359 --> 00:21:50.079 of interest in the Shenandoah, and b that was kind 357 00:21:50.119 --> 00:21:53.319 of a trick that the parties had been using for gerrymandering. 358 00:21:54.440 --> 00:21:58.960 It's heavily Republican, so you can either make blue districts 359 00:21:59.039 --> 00:22:02.519 red using it, or you can make red districts blue 360 00:22:02.680 --> 00:22:06.599 by diluting it. So that's how we approached it, and 361 00:22:06.640 --> 00:22:10.079 it worked out great. We ended up with good looking districts. 362 00:22:10.119 --> 00:22:14.519 The the basic Republicans and Democrats liked it. The partisans 363 00:22:14.519 --> 00:22:17.160 on either side didn't like it. But that's a feature, 364 00:22:17.200 --> 00:22:21.359 not a bug, and it's it's a it's an illustration 365 00:22:21.839 --> 00:22:26.319 of how this sort of conception that you have to 366 00:22:26.440 --> 00:22:31.559 draw extreme gerry manders to kind of make up for 367 00:22:31.920 --> 00:22:34.720 you know, if you if you use kind of good 368 00:22:34.720 --> 00:22:37.480 government principles, you're going to skew the maps so badly 369 00:22:37.680 --> 00:22:39.359 that you're either not going to get minority groups or 370 00:22:39.359 --> 00:22:41.599 you're gonna get too many Republicans or Democrats. It's just, 371 00:22:41.839 --> 00:22:45.119 at least in Virginia just wasn't true. We ended up 372 00:22:45.160 --> 00:22:46.680 with pretty good maps. 373 00:22:46.960 --> 00:22:47.200 Yeah. 374 00:22:47.240 --> 00:22:50.599 I read a column of the bull Disclosure supporting your 375 00:22:50.720 --> 00:22:53.599 plan when it was drafted because I liked it so much. 376 00:22:53.640 --> 00:22:58.160 And for people who don't listen to every episode, I 377 00:22:58.279 --> 00:23:01.680 learned the black arts and cage and had my own 378 00:23:02.759 --> 00:23:06.240 experience with the redistricting in nineteen eighty three when I 379 00:23:06.279 --> 00:23:09.640 was the prime architect of a effort to replace the 380 00:23:09.720 --> 00:23:14.400 Democratic Garry Mander by a ballot initiative. I drew the maps, 381 00:23:14.519 --> 00:23:17.640 and the Supreme Court, on a six to one vote 382 00:23:17.720 --> 00:23:20.440 decided that we could not get to the vote of 383 00:23:20.480 --> 00:23:22.119 the people. And I want you to guess the partisan 384 00:23:22.160 --> 00:23:24.599 balance of that court, and. 385 00:23:24.720 --> 00:23:26.359 I got on Lemon say, six to one. 386 00:23:26.680 --> 00:23:29.319 Well, bingo, bingo. 387 00:23:31.599 --> 00:23:34.880 An experience I have never forgotten, but it was one 388 00:23:34.920 --> 00:23:37.319 of the things on the partisan aspect of it is 389 00:23:37.480 --> 00:23:39.680 I believe and I'm doing this for a memory, is 390 00:23:39.680 --> 00:23:42.200 that this was the sort of map that if you 391 00:23:42.279 --> 00:23:45.920 looked at the twenty twenty presidential results, Joe Biden would 392 00:23:46.039 --> 00:23:50.359 have carried roughly around fifty five or fifty six of 393 00:23:50.400 --> 00:23:53.559 the one hundred House of Delegates seats, which and he 394 00:23:53.599 --> 00:23:56.000 got about fifty five or fifty six percent of the vote, 395 00:23:56.039 --> 00:23:59.960 and it would have carried six of the eleven congressional seats, 396 00:24:00.160 --> 00:24:05.039 and Glenn Young Kim would have carried the majority of 397 00:24:05.119 --> 00:24:09.960 delegate seats when he won the state. And you did 398 00:24:09.960 --> 00:24:13.559 it without looking and of course everybody has a rough 399 00:24:13.640 --> 00:24:18.039 sense of the partisan nature, but you didn't without looking 400 00:24:18.200 --> 00:24:21.960 at the details of politics in the sense of, oh, well, 401 00:24:22.000 --> 00:24:23.880