Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everyone. It is Tuesday. It is
time for full court press. It's five dollars Tuesday at
Wager Talk, which means myself, Rob Bino, and all the
other handicappers on the site will have a play up
at least one for just five dollars. Recap of my
night last night, quick, Rob, I ended up in the er.
Uh so I ended up at the hospital. I I
tweeted my picture or picture of me watching Santa Clara
Saint Mary's from the hospital room. Uh where we cash that?
So I'm fine. I appreciate you guys that that reached out.
I mean, I guess we'll see if I'm fine. But
I'm here, So that's that's a good news. You know,
all the tests and stuff they ran came back fine.
And Rob, I was two and oh last night. So
I kind of want to go back to that room.
I don't think they're gonna let me. I don't you know,
can't be can't be billing insurance just to watch basketball
in a lucky place. But uh, you know, if I
recall correctly, Rob, did you not have an undefeated night
when you had to go to go to the er
earlier this year? We might be undefeated in the emergency
room this year.
Speaker 2: I have to check back on that.
Speaker 1: I Uh, I think you went three and oh the
night you had your knee drink. You know, I remember correctly.
Speaker 2: You're right, absolutely, because I remember being late with the
plays after getting the uh you know, the injection, being
late with the plays and going three and oh. Yeah,
you're absolutely right. I didn't think of it that way.
But man, not to wish us being you know, sick
or hindered in any way, shape or form. But it's
good results.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, listen, that's if the if the double the
CBB firepower package doesn't promo itself, I mean combined five
and oh uh at the er for us. So I
went to and O. Last night we got the parlay home,
which we desperately needed. So we're gonna try to get
another one today. How was your night? Bring us home
with how your night was last night?
Speaker 2: Yesterday in college basketball was one and two, another small
give back. The winner. The good was Eastern Washington team
total over, as we talked about. The bad was Georgia
Southern full game total over. I think we hit on
that as good as you could hit on that game.
Adam and then go out for myself and lose a play.
But we did hint that the kind of dissension in
Georgia Southern's shooting numbers the game before after winning five straight.
Those numbers did come down again last night, but I
think the biggest thing was and I somewhat was scared
off by the number in this game, but should have
in retrospect played Troy. Talked about how Troy played Georgia
Southern once and they were one of the only teams,
if not the only team in the Sunbelt that played
Georgia Southern style in the regular season meeting and did
everything Georgia Southern does well even better, and last night
they didn't even play Georgia Southern style. Last night was
dominant on the boards by Troy. It was I think
they made over seventy percent of their twos, so it
was interior stuff at the rim on the boards. I
think fatigue shows up in that way a little bit.
Georgia Southern otherwise was not horrible, but Troy was just
a physically and closer to the basket dominant team in
that one. So congratulations to Troy. They had to play
two games to get home as an Attorney winner and into
the NCAA March Madness Tournament. And congratulations to Georgia Southern.
I mean, doing what they did is not easy. Lastly,
i'll close really quick here. The other lost to one
and two. Was you know again sometimes in retrospect, but
Northern Colorado minus points. I'm glad you had Montana. And
again it's a case where I was on here two
weeks ago praising Money Williams, praising Montana's championship pedigree. Don't
sell them short. And boy, they took that blowout loss
just recently to Northern Colorado to heart and they Money
Williams eighteen of nineteen from the free throw line and
he was all everything. And Northern Colorado, you know, exhibited
what they exhibited all season long. Excellent offense, very little
to no defense.
Speaker 1: Yeah, big, big, big effort last night for money Williams
forty points. All right, we'll get into it today. For today.
I was trying to get the nurse interested in Santa
Clara last night. She was not just for an update there.
No one there seemed to care that. I was very
invested in that Santa Clara game. I actually, I mean
it was so like busy and stuff. I pretty much
pretty much watched that game in the room, like unbothered
because that's how long I was there, So eleven thirty pm, tip,
no problem, caught that whole game and in my little
hospital cot whatever whatever bed thing I was in. But hey, Rob,
Santa Clara, huge spot for them. They kind of needed
that game to punch their ticket officially. I mean, I
still feel like they should they should have been in regardless,
but I don't think we have to second guess that anymore.
That win should put them comfortably in the NCAAA tournament field.
And so that brings us to tonight's game. I'm gonna
let you kick us off, Santa Clara Gonzaga. But my
first question to you, and you could obviously intertwine this
into your handicap, is are you worried that there's a
little bit of an exhale here from Santa Clara because
last night was the one that they needed, the one
they really had to have to get to the NCAA tournament.
Speaker 2: I am, I would be. I mean, that was a
gritty effort by Santa Clara. For those who didn't see
that game last night, Santa Clara had difficulties on the
offensive end for quite a while in that game, and
it came to a point where I remember watching Last
Night Adam and seeing Tom Cree, ex head coach of
Marquette Indiana, from the studio asking Sean Farner, is there
any way that Santa Clara could run some double staggers?
And they're talking about off the ball movement because Santa
Clara was falling into the hands of the Saint Mary's defense.
And then the second half that changed. Santa Clara made
the necessary adjustments. They did what they do best. They
made some threes, they got the scoring up. I think
they had forty four in the second half, maybe forty two,
but it was a huge upgrade from their first half.
And to their credit, Santa Clara was still in the
game even though they were having offensive difficulties. You never
felt like they're, you know, out of it. They're down four,
they're down three, they're down two, whatever they were down,
it wasn't much. And when they hit the accelerator, Saint
Mary's was the team that couldn't keep up. To your
original question, I do feel like that was a monster
game for them. Their NCAA tournament bid hung on that result.
They got the result they needed. Now you go play Gonzaga,
and what further is the problem here for me for
Santa Clair is Gonzaga did not have a great night
last night against Oregon State. And I fully would expect
an offensive bounce back out of Gonzaga. Some of their
numbers posted and I get Oregon State can be difficult
to play their kind of style of slow and you know,
filthy kind of basketball. But for Gonzaga three or fourteen
from three, not much in the way of a rebounding edge,
which is not like them, very little to no advantage
as far as free throw attempts are concerned. That stuff
probably all changes here. It's a different style game with
Santa Clara. This will be much more up and down.
Both teams actually, you know, probably look at each other
and say, well, this is more suited to what we
want to do. But Gonzaga won both regular season meetings.
They win ninety four, eighty six, they win eighty nine
to seventy seven. They score, They show you that they
can score on Santa Clara ninety four and eighty nine
in those two games. Santa Clara also responded with, like
I say, eighty six and seventy seven. So for me,
beyond looking at Gonzaga from a side perspective, would probably
want to look at the total in some way, shape
or form. For me, that form would probably be the
Gonzaga team total again, because I'm it's not that I
want to exclude Santa Clara from scoring points here. It's
that I'm a little nervous about maybe a little celebratory
hangover from Santa Clara in this game. It may not happen.
Herb Sendek may get the crew together, and you know,
they haven't won this tournament in ages, have they ever
won this tournament Santa Clara, and so obviously that's a
goal that they would want to achieve here. For me,
I still think Gonzagas do for a huge bounce back
in this game. I think probably Santa Clara had a
lot of energy taken out of them last night, needing
that win the way they did and against a physical
Saint Mary's. So I'd probably look at Zaga minus six
and a half first, and then I would look to
or maybe equal parts. I shouldn't say that because I'm
more of a totals guy, but maybe the Gonzaga team
total over eighty two and a half ends up being
what I wind up featuring you.
Speaker 1: Today, Rob, I was going to pretty much ask you
that because to me, like looking at the first two
meetings and the ease in which Gonzaga scored points in
those two meetings, it's hard to believe that they're not
at lake, that they that they would put up less
than like eighty f here. You know, Gonzaga always takes
this game seriously. You can talk about like, well, Gonzaga,
they're you know, they don't need to win the final.
They I can't remember. I mean they they've definitely been
beaten this game before. I think Saint Mary's has won
it in recent years at least, you know, once or twice.
But like they they all, Gonzaga always shows up to
play in this game. You know, you go go back
through the years and there's been teams that have gotten
to this game and then they run into a Gonzaga
team that you know doesn't need to win it, but
they go out and win by fifteen. Anyway, I'm not
worried about Santa Clara not taking the game seriously. What
I'm worried about is the the like you said, the
energy and the effort exerted to hold on to that
game down the stretch. A couple huge turnovers, big defensive
plays that Santa Clara made. Rob they only turned the
ball over four times yesterday. Yeah, they they played, I mean,
really they play. In my opinion, they played as good
as Santa Clara can play in that game. Four turnovers,
they made, the defensive plays. We talked about the rebounding
disparity in the most recent of the most recent meeting,
the one that occurred in Maraga, where Saint Mary's had
out rebounded them by thirty last night, thirty seven to
twenty eight. Just a huge effort from Santa Clara. So
it's less I guess for me, it's less the I mean,
there is an element of the exhale because they have
now been told by everyone involved in college basketball, college
basketball media that they're in, and they are in. They're
not gonna they're not gonna be left out after losing
to Saint Mary's. But I think the combination of that
and then the game that they would have to play
to stay within I think it's still six and a half.
Gonzaga may have taken some money, but the game that
they would have to play to stay within six and
a half against this Gonzaga team. I just think that's
a lot to ask in in a three day span.
So it would happen to be Gonzaga minus the points.
That's the way I lean that would be my play
in this game. But I totally see where you're coming
from with the team total.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and quickly, to Santa Clara's credit, not only did
they only commit a minuscule four turnovers, they were five
of fourteen from the free throw line. They couldn't make
a free throw last night, and they still won the
game without free throws, So credit to them. It's two
different style opponents, obviously, and I think, honestly, if you're
Santa Clara, the style that's harder to face is the
Saint Mary's style. It's just more of a grind, it's
more taxing, et cetera, et cetera. We'll see how this
one goes. But I like your point about Gonzaga never needing.
They never ever need to win this game to punch
their ticket. But yet they always come to show. They
always show up, and generally speaking, they win this game.
They take pride in winning the WCC conference title.
Speaker 1: Yeah, one final point, I'll make is Christian Hammond did
not play particularly well last night. He just couldn't get
his shot going. You know, it just goes back to
how impressive that performance was in the in the gray areas,
right with the rebounding and the defensive stops and the
hustle plays, because you know they did all of that
with with Hammond not really providing much offensively, uh seven
points and and missed some makeable shot. So yeah, very
interesting sort of scenario there. But for me, that's a
pretty I think there's a pretty clear edge to Gonzaga there.
It hasn't made my client card yet, but it's on
the it's it's certainly on my list of things to consider.
And I you know, I told you yesterday Rob, and
this is like just more of a general point that
I'm gonna probably continue to make early in the week.
Like some of these line moves have been crazy, even
even last night. There was just within that last hour
to two hours some crazy movement on certain games. And
you know, if this got if Santa Clara got hit
here and and pushed this back to like six and
a half six, I may have to jump in with Gonzaga.
But I think I I even with how crazy the
line stuff has been, I think Gonzaga probably ends up
in the seven and a half to eight range before
we're all said and done here. So again just something
to look at. My bypoint there would be six and
a half or better. All right, let's go to Garth.
Garth says, runs go grung goos to fifteen and six.
After E C. E. T. S U didn't come through
last night, Furman came through, which is kind of what
Rob you alluded to liking Furman. I said, I didn't
want to bet East Tennessee State, and the reason why
sort of played out so that so that I think
would have been a good result for anyone that sort
of took that advice yesterday from that game. Today, Garth
wants to go to the Big twelve. So we are
opening up the Big twelve tournament some opening round today.
He's got another total, so I'll let you start this
one off. Cincinnati, Utah over sixty four and a half.
Bar says, combined thirteen and five to this number since
February first. I think this is the glass court rob
out in Big twelve country. That they can change the
design on the court. Haven't really seen it yet didn't
catch any of the girls tournament. But we want to
know if the ball's going through the hooper, not in
the first half here, So talk to me about since
e Utah specifically the total.
Speaker 2: Yeah, to make a counter argument to that is a
little bit difficult because you can point to a lot
of components that might say over sixty four and a half.
I will say this to Garth is that you know
my experience this year, as great as this season has
been in college basketball, my experience has been every time
I dive into something first half, I get snake bit,
including East Tennessee State the other day. First half should
have never been on the first half, should have been
in on the second half. That aside my personal first
half failures, aside which I haven't gotten involved in a
lot of first halfs. You could see Cincinnati, I'd almost
rather isolated the Cincinnati's team total, which as I'm looking
here is only thirty five and a half. The Utah
defense is a SIV. It's been a sieve all season long.
Cincinnati obviously has the capability. It's been a little sporadic,
but they've got the capability to score big points. On
that team, They've got scorers, just doesn't always come through
every game. They're a little inconsistent. We're scoring is concern.
But to ask for thirty six and I don't have
the numbers in front of me Garth, but I would
be interested to see how many times Utah has given
up more than thirty five and a half in the
first half. They've sort of where Utah is concerned. They
have sort of changed their stripes throughout the season. I'm
going to say first two thirds of the season maybe
a little bit less. It seemed to me Utah was
they are very guard reliant for points, but they were
more apt to play quickly, and then down the stretch
they kind of slowed things down a little bit. I
think part of that would be, you know, realizing that
we can't get into these high scoring games with teams
They were giving up points in droves in some Big
twelve games. I don't know. You know, there's been occasion
where you say you can trust Utah as an offense,
but do you trust them against this Cincinnati defense. I
don't know. I kind of would not trust them in
this particular situation with Cincinnati looking to build a little
more of a resume. Not that Utah is a resume builder.
The other concern you would have is, again the arena,
T Mobile Center, first game out, maybe tricky rims. Who
knows how teams are going to react in their first game.
Saga had a miserable shooting game last night in their
first night out in the WCC tournament. Sometimes you come
out red hot. That stuff's twenty twenty hindsight, but it
always has to factor into your handicap. In short, if
I was gonna play this Garth, I think I would
lean more on Cincinnati less on Utah, probably play the
Cincinnati team total over thirty five and a half. And
again I don't have the numbers in front of me,
but it would seem to me that Utah is more
than capable of giving up thirty six in the first half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I'd have to agree with you going
the team total route if you like Cincinnati, because there's
this one has moved quite a bit. Looks like it's
up to twelve and a half. You could get eleven
and a half still most places there are some of
the some of the more public shops are up in
the twelve to twelve and a half range. You know,
I I just want no part of Utah like this,
this is a team now, I just want absolutely no
part of in this tournament. They they they've just looked
like they're totally cooked. I just I just don't see
like some of these teams, you know, the smaller conferences
rob kind of stop bringing these teams to their tournament
right the very very bottom of the league. I'm surprised
the bigger leagues haven't all done that, right, Like the
ACC is doing that where there's they're just not gonna
bring the three worst teams in the league. There's just like,
I mean, how much of this Utah team is already
trying to figure out where they're gonna go play next
year at this point? Right? I think I think that's
what you got to sort of look at and and
we'll we'll talk about Actually I'll just segue it and
I'm gonna give out a play and hopefully we can
do hopefully we can go three teamer today because my
I'm gonna give out a play that's early and it's
gonna be my parlay league. So we'll make sure it's
a three teamer today because I really like Baylor and
I'm just gonna use you know, I guess this Utah
Cincinnati game to segue to the Baylor Arizona State game,
because I think you have, again very similar You have
Arizona State who just lost. You know, their coaches is done,
They're going to move in a different direction from Hurley,
And you're really trying to gauge, in my opinion in
these two early Big twelve games, like which of these
team cares? Who's going to show up? You know, who
really wants to be there and think they can make
a run. And I think in those two games, it's
Baylor and it's Utah or I'm sorry, it's Baylor and
at Cincinnati. I don't really want to lay eleven with
Cincinnati to like, maybe Utah hangs around and comes in
and clips them and you know, only loses by nine
and covers the number. But I'm more than content laying
the three and a half or the four with Baylor
against Arizona State. Rob. I think Baylor kind of needs
this game. I was talking to ct about ten minutes
before the show. He went to Baylor, this is his team.
You know, he gives me unbiased takes on Baylor, and
he made a great point that ultimately pushed me over
the edge here in the respect that like this feels
like a big game for Scott Drew. I don't think
Scott Drew is losing his job by any means. He
won a national championship game there five years ago. But
I don't know. I kind of agreed with that take
where it's like you've got this Arizona State team that
kind of feels checked out. If you're Baylor, you got it.
You gotta win this game. You have to go in
and win this game. You can't lose this game if
you're Scott Drew and you're Baylor. And I still think
Baylor is the better of these two teams and has
some edges on the matchups. So this is a client
play for me. This will be my parlay leg I
laid three and a half with with some juice with
Baylor in this game. I think minus won fifteen or
minus won eighteen. Whatever was that the whatever we were
allowed to post for a consensus line. When I locked
this in. I'm looking at the board, Rob you can
still get three and a half minus one twenty pretty
much anywhere. And if you want to just lay the
four and don't want to lay you know, don't want
to pay for the juice. I understand that as well.
I think this could be a pretty dominant performance by
Baylor here, and I love the spot. And I just
think Arizona State's a team that's just coming in and
they're going to be heading out early in this tournament.
So I laid the points with Baylor. Talk to me
about that game, though, agree and feel free to disagree
if if you've got something different.
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I think you know there's two schools of thought, right.
I don't know what the players think of Bobby Hurley
as a head coach. The announcement that comes at this
time of season that they're gonna part ways can go
either very well or very poorly, and that kind of
depends on the players affection for their head coach if
it's a play one for Bobby. I mean, the opening
game that Oregon State played against San Francisco the other
day is a three and a half point dog was
you know, they played hard for their head coach, Wayne Tinkle,
who's on his way out. Obviously they're overmatched yesterday by Gonzaga,
but they didn't play a poor game by any stretch.
They cover the number they hold Gonzaga to sixty five points.
So Oregon State's an example of how good it can go.
Two to zero ats in their tournament. Good result for
handicappers who backed them. It could go the other way, though,
And I don't know how much these kids. It seems
to me like Bobby Hurley's message wore out long ago
with Arizona State. They probably could have made this move, honestly,
at him a couple of years back, if they really
wanted to to dismiss him and to get somebody new
in there. Mo Otem, their best player is a senior
on his way out. Anyway, Does he have one last
big game animo or now? He didn't have a big
game against Baylor the first time around. Baylor kind of
contained Moodem and what was a close game in Waco.
For me, it's hard to decide which way it goes
if I had to guess. And again, we're not in
these locker rooms, but we cover this stuff close enough
and long enough to maybe make a pretty good assessment
of where ASU stands with their head coach. I would
not think that Bobby Hurley is one of those let's
win one for the gipper type of guys where his
team is concerned, and they'll go out and they'll play hard.
But if things start to go bad, you just wonder
do they have it in them to try and correct it?
You know what I mean? If Baylor gets out there,
Let's just say Baylor gets out to a fourteenth to
four jump on things, Arizona State really got it in them?
Or do they just say, you know what, coaches go on,
We're all gone next year, Moe Odem's off to NBA
draft camps to see if he gets et cetera, et cetera.
That to me would be the more plausible scenarios. So
from that perspective, you would like Baylor, who I do think,
you know, the end of the season, they had a
couple of instances where they look pretty good. Baylor's not
that not that less of a talented team from an
overall Big twelve perspective, They've got talent on that side
that could probably open up a margin here. So I'm
not involved in the game. Obviously, we're rooting for Baylor
here because you're on that side. And boy money has
moved that game right two and a half to four
and a half right away. And I don't know if
that's an initial pull of the trigger because Hurley was dismissed.
You know, people just saying, oh, coaches going bet the
other side, But like I say, that can go either way.
I just don't think Bobby Hurley is the kind of
guy that the players rise up and play one for today.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So just to speak about on the line move
a little bit, I think that two and a half
was gone very very quick. Like for me, three and
a half is very playable here. I wouldn't want four
and a half like that. I think that's the point
where you got to maybe you know, step out like
I would. I wouldn't want to take four and a half,
Like I'm already laying a slightly you know, not the
optimal number at three and a half minus one eighteen.
But just to reference the line move, like that two
and a half was was basically the opener, like the
overnight open at not even the overnight opener like the
early early yesterday afternoon opener. Rob that was of you know,
very very small limits and gone quickly. So I don't
even like, I don't if you're betting these games for
anything substantial, you probably weren't getting two and a half.
So I'm okay with saying three and a half is
like the like a very fair number here, like that
would be sort of like the widely available like number.
And yeah, so, but it has moved past that some places.
I still think if you're looking at the screen, there
is still like three and a half minus one twenty
is still attainable out there. And just to go back
to the point you made with Baylor the last sort
of couple weeks of the season, if you go back
to the Arizona State game, which they kind of played
a you know, the not the best first half. That
game was at Foster Pavilion in Waco. I remember, you know,
liking them in that game at the time, didn't want
to lay what At that time, there was some pretty
big move to Baylor as well. I think they moved
from five and a half all the way up to
seven and a half at home, didn't play the best
first half, but came out, took care of business, ended
up winning by five. They actually probably should have won
by more. They missed like a whole bunch of free
throws to close that game out. They really have not
played a bad half of basketball since, right Like, they
come out the next game, give Arizona a great game,
lose by seven. They following game they beat UCF. The
game after that, they went on the road to Houston
where they were tied for most of you know, at
halftime and then into the second half, and then of
course the season finale, they dropped one on one on Utah.
And what you saw on you against Utah last weekend,
rob in my opinion, is the by what the Baylor
offense is capable of, especially if your sort of your
gut saying, and I think Bayou said something to this
similar in the chat. If Arizona State shows up, they're
not really defending, like Baylor still has. My criticism with
Baylor this year was always on the defensive end. It
really was never the offense. Like this team still has
guys that can put the ball in the basket, and
we just saw it over the weekend dropping one on
one on Arizona State. The final thing I'll say about
this one is I think Baylor comes into this tournament thinking,
you know, we can win a game or two, because again,
look at those last two months of the season, they
went up against a couple of the best teams in
this league, Arizona and Houston and they were in those games.
I believe they were in a game with Iowa State
earlier this year as well. So those are the top
teams in the Big Twelve that Baylor had has played
competitive with for like most of a game. Four percent
play for me Baylor minus three and a half. And
that will be my leg of the parlay. So parlays
for the live viewers today, Robin, it means we're gonna
probably have to have to find a joint leg because
you know, I know that we got people that roll
in and watch the show late and if you know,
if you get in and you watch that two or
three in the afternoon, that Baylor game is one of
the first ones off the board. So it will be
a three teamer today. We'll figure out a third leg
at some point, but for now, I'm gonna go to Richie.
Richie said Richie Action two four seven said Trigg Inspired
Trig Inspired Tour Game one will be at the Horizon
Final at Fairgrounds Coliseum in Indie. That's awesome. I hope
you enjoy the game. I'm sadly I'm not gonna be
able to make the Siena game tonight. I'll be watching
that one from you know, from my house because I
had to come back up here to to go to
the doctor. So I won't be in ac tonight. But
I do think, you know, as long as I'm cleared
to go, I will likely go to the Lehigh game tomorrow.
But Richie's got boots on the ground tonight, Rob Horizon Final.
How about Detroit Mercy and all those Detroit kids from
the Detroit area coming out yesterday upsetting Robert Morris to
get to the final tonight they run into Right State.
Right State dropped one hundred last night. Looks like Richie
thinks Right State score some points again here. Agree or
disagree Horizon League Final? Anything for you on the side
or total in this one?
Speaker 2: Yeah, not going to disagree at all. I just don't
know that anybody in this league. And again, last night
was probably the straw that just you know, breaks the
camel's back, so to speak, because I don't see anybody
in this league that can stop the Right State offense.
It's just it's that good and Detroit is not that
capable offensively to keep pace. Now as I say, hey
that somebody would counter and say, you know what, Rob,
first time around Detroit Mercy plays them to two points,
eighty four eighty two. Second time around, they play them
to seventy seven, seventy four, two and three point contests.
So certainly they played them tight in those games, and
certainly they have the mindset to play them tight. So
when I see stuff like that, obviously I don't with
the opinion that I have of Right State. Let's label
it that with the opinion that I have going in
of Right State and the thought process of nobody can
stop them offensively. When I see those two season results,
it stops me from laying points here. I was inclined
to lay points with Wright State, and maybe I still will,
but it puts me squarely where Richie's saying he is.
If you don't think, or you don't absolutely trust that
the team could cover, because they haven't proven through two
games this year they can cover, then go right to
the team total, which Right State is more than capable
of exceeding seventy eight and a half here last night.
And Northern Kentucky plays a little bit differently than Detroit does.
But again, Robert Morris was horrendous last night from three
point range. You're just not going to get that out
of Right State, and you're going to get all the
other extra intangibles out of Right State on the offensive
end that you didn't get out of Robert Morris last night.
You're going to get better rebounding, you're going to get
a lot of trips to the free throw line, all
that stuff. When it all accumulates, it adds up to
more than seventy eight a half. I was kind of surprised,
to tell you the honest truth, that this wasn't somewhere
in the either at the eighty and a half range
team total or into the low eighties, like eighty one
and a half, eighty two and a half somewhere there.
Seventy eight and a half to me with Wright State
seems almost like a bargain at this point in time.
You go back through their regular season and see how
many times they've exceeded this number. I get it's a
championship game, and a lot of the old adage handicapping
stuff tells you that championship games defensive minded. But there's
nothing about Right State as far as what they're predicated
on that screams defense. It's offense. So for me, I
would thoroughly agree with what Richie's saying there, seventy eight
and a half looks like a good number. I think
he's on the right side their team total over.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, listen, Detroit has been much better defensively
down the stretch and in this tournament so far. But
I guess my concern for the Detroit side in this
game Rob is like, right, State is just gonna create
better looks and they're gonna create them more frequently. Their
offense is just it's so much more efficient averaging eighty
point five points per game this year. They hit from
the field at a top thirty clip nationally, where I
just don't know that Detroit can sort of scrap their
way to a win like they did against Robert Morris.
And then I, you know, before part of the Robert
Morris breakdown yesterday, which I certainly leaned the Robert Morris
side in that game, I was, you know, I again,
I've been high on this Detroit team coming into the year,
but I did not expect them to win that game
last night. And part of the reason I didn't think
they would win that game is because of, you know,
they just sort of lack of efficiency on offense for
Detroit it's tough shots, it's you know, a lot of
their games during Horizon League regular season play were just
like very like scrappy, almost like slugfest type games. And
then you know, toward the end of the season, the
run that they finished the regular season on five of
the last six, they really started to put the ball
in the basket a little bit, but against teams that
have real issues defensively. You know, Milwaukee, they had played
twice in that stretch, and we talked about Milwaukee, you know,
showing up to the conference tournament with injuries and guys out,
and then Oakland their defense let them down massive this year.
I think, you know, that was a big reason Oakland
is not still in the mix here and didn't end
up winning a league that I think a lot of
people thought they were gonna win. So here you have
to deal with Right State in a game where you
almost think that Detroit is going to have to score
like seventy five to eighty to have a chance to win.
I think that the more likely outcome rob is Right
State just pulling away because the volume of their shots
is going to be so much the quality of their shots,
and then the volume is going to be higher and
better than Detroit, and I just don't think they can
scrap their way in a game like this against a
team as efficient as Right State. So it's a Right
State lean for me. I didn't lay that number, but
I think this is a league where we're gonna get
the best team. The one seed is going to advance
because I know some of these one seeds have you know,
kind of gotten bounced from their conference tournament so far
this conference tournament season. I don't think this is going
to be one of them. I like write State in
this one, and so I guess I would agree with
your team total over More importantly, Richie, have a great
time at the game. That should be a good one,
right there. Okay, let's go back to the chat. Appreciate
the donations as always. I think we have yes, we do.
We have mad Max in the building, and of course
the super chat stars are messing me up again. Okay,
here's here's a well. First of all, appreciate the donation
as always, he says. Quick note about odds logic. I've
recently noticed that when at least fifty percent of the
tickets amount of money is seventy to eighty percent, a
favorite team, but the line doesn't move the unfavorite team
usually covers Listen. I mean that's you know, you can.
I guess it's a good promotion for Odds Logic right here,
which Rob and I speak very highly of on the show.
What I will say about you know, just your point
that you're making is odds Logic does make it very
easy to sort of like see that and to tract that.
So if that's something that you are like really like
using in your handicap, I think odds Logic is as
good as any any odd screen that I've used. So yeah,
I mean I get it's a good it's a good
promo for odds Logic. I know most of the wager
Talk folks use that sort of swear by it, and uh,
I will I'll say I've been very very happy since
I switched to it. And you know, now that I've
gotten to know the sort of functionality a little bit better,
I've got my screen set up the way I want
them set up. It's a great product. And I do
you want to just kind of speak to that at all,
Rob quick before we move on.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll speak to the fact that I a little
to no attention to ticket percentage money percentage. I never
really know where those numbers are even generated from. Honestly,
I don't know. I've never sat down, and maybe I
should sit down with Rick Alec or somebody heavily involved
in odds logic can just say, how do they is
that one casino? Is that is that ten different outlets?
Or where exactly are those numbers coming from? And who
are the people that we're gauging this these sort of
percentages from. I don't know the answers to that. Therefore
I don't pay a lot of attention. I know people
do pay attention. I'm not a guy adam that falls
for this stuff. Quite often you hear the term, oh,
that line is fishy. You know, I'm not generally somebody
who falls for that type of stuff. I think numbers
are made, and odds makers may shade stuff, opinionated stuff
half a point here, half a point there, to see
if they can attract a ten on the other side,
because they know where the money's gonna come from when
it comes to the counter. So a lot of that stuff. Honestly,
I don't give a lot of credence to Some guys do,
some betters do, and I wouldn't argue with them. I
would just say it's not something that interests me in
any way shape or form, or sways my handicap in
any way, shape or form.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, listen, Matt, Max says he swears by it
uses it. Listen. Hey, I mean you gotta have an
odd screen. Let's put it that way. You're you're you're
you have to have a screen that you can look
at and functions in real time.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 1: I just like the how how you're able to manipulate
the layout. And as I used it more and and
sort of figured out the functionality more, I'm pretty comfortable
with the layout I have. And uh yeah, no, it's
a it's it's really good. And I don't mind taking
a couple of minutes to talk about that, because this
is a betting show, and you know it's it's also
giving picks is one thing, but it's also a out
kind of talking about just betting the games sometimes and.
Speaker 2: You know, really quick, Adam, for those who don't have it,
I think both of us could vouch it's the best
in the business out there. And you can get a
seven day free trial if you want to see what
Max is talking about. Just go to wait you talk back,
I'm get a seven day free trial, and you can
see why Adam and I are both you know, locked
into odds logikechen every day here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and while you're over there, check out the double
the CBB Firepower package that Rob and I have up
on our page three days or the rest of the tournament,
of course, for one more time, Rob, for the people
in the back, it's five dollars Tuesday. What that means great,
great time to just test out a handicap or myself, Rob,
anyone else on the site will have plays up for
five dollars, and I just I gave you one of
I guess I'm only going to have one play up
for five dollars, Rob, because I just gave the other
one on the show. Although I have a feeling I'm
going to have a couple today in addition to the
two I already have up, so you know, stay tuned.
I feel pretty good about some of the some of
the plays on this this board. Okay, I am gonna head.
I'm gonna head back to the chat because I think
this one's very interesting and like four people have asked,
like have posted about this game. First Flick says mercy
Hurst plus six and a half. He's loving that. Shane
says he played mercy Hurst. Rob. Everyone wants to get
involved in the mercy Hurst l i U game. That
uh is really it's not for a tournament bid because
Long Island University has already gone is already going to
the NCAA tournament. The reason Mercy Hurst is still in
the transition period. So even if they win this game,
they can't go to the NCAA tournament. I don't disagree
with the mercy Hurst look from a handicapping standpoint. I
think they're gonna want to come out and this is
this is their season, this is their championship game. There's
no additional game after this for mercy Hurst, and winning
the NEC would be a massive accomplishment. Rob kind of
reminds me of our conversation ahead of New Haven's season finale.
Right new Haven, they knew they weren't going to be
able to come to this tournament because they're in their
first year. They had one final game against Lemoyne and
they went out with a band, gave a great effort
and won that game. So the I get why you
would like Mercyhurst from a spot standpoint, They've played the
LU extremely tough this year so far. They won one
of those games, one of the only teams to beat
LU in the NEC this year. The problem here is, Rob,
I think the odds makers are taxing the crap out
of you with this number. My power rating has l
IU much higher. I make l Iu at home in
this game. Like if this were a regular season game
and I wasn't putting that spot into it at all,
I'd have l Iu minus nine point eight here. That's
quite a ways off of what the number is. So
my question to you is, do you do you think
the books this is I guess a good segue, right.
Do you think the books have shaded this a little
bit to discourage people for betting LU because they think
they can do that because now it's well known that
LU doesn't need to win this game to go to
the NCAA tournament.
Speaker 2: Without question, I think that they do appreciate that number.
They again, you know that there's always an anticipation when
you're a bookmaker, anticipate where the money is going to
come from, and how can you limit the flood of
one sided money that you might get, So you know
the way to do that is to shade it right
off the bat, build it into the line and try
and discourage some of the betters. I don't know, Adam,
that you know, there's some instances where I would say,
I don't know that you could shade it high enough.
Because if Long Island is disinterested, and Long Island's disinterested, Mercyhurst,
we know, is going to be interested. I mean, this
is there and tournament right here tonight, so they're going
to come to the game ready to play. You don't
know about the other side. There's instances where you couldn't
you know, you can't make it high enough. They could
win by double digits if Long Island doesn't want to play.
But I don't think that that's the case. Quite honestly,
I think l i U is going to want to
win here just as well. Regardless of what mercy Hurst
circumstances are. Those don't affect Long Island at all. They
don't really care what your circumstance is. We're worried about
our circumstance. So for me, if it is you know,
for folks who make numbers, make their own power ratings,
this if this thing seems light to you, because expectation
of mercy Hurst money and a lot of people realizing
that mercy Hurst has, you know, can't go to the
tournament and they're going to play harder. If you think
the line favors Long Island, I would certainly go ahead
and play it. I mean, I don't see again, I
can't make the case that Long Island is just not
going to show up here, and that's honestly what you're
hoping for. Yep, that mercy Hurst shows in. LU doesn't
and l IU is better than mercy Hurst to begin with,
the best team in this conference. So for me, I'd
probably looked that way. Didn't play the game yet, but
I don't know that i'd be in that line running
to get to mercy Hurst plus points here.
Speaker 1: I want to make a quick point about this game
because it's reminiscent to me of the conversation we had
on Sunday with Kelly prior to the high Point Winthrop game,
where this might actually be a pretty good live betting opportunity.
So the thing I'd be looking for here with l
I U is the status of Jamal Fuller. He had
a I think he rolled an ankle in the Chicago
State game. I know there was some people that were
unsure if he would play on Saturday. I fully expected
him to play got bet in that game as if
he wasn't gonna play. But of course Jamal Fuller not
only was he out there rob but he played all
forty minutes of the game, you know, went for seventeen
to ten. So I guess my only concern with the
LU side would be if anyone has an ailman, do
they play limited minutes or do they do they not
play much because of course LU already has the tournament
bit and you can't afford to go into next week
not you know, not fully healthy. That being said, I
don't think Rod Strickland is trying to deprive anyone of
playing in this game. And then just to the last
final point I'll make in favor of l IU, this
will be one of the biggest home games they've had
in recent memory. They're gonna have probably a close to
a sellout for this game, like it'll be their best
crowd of the year. I just don't know how you
get in that atmosphere of your LU and you're not
like totally fired up to go out and win and
play a great game. And if that's the case, then boy,
is that six and a half number two? Again, I
pulled up my number here, I make it nine point nine.
So I really do think the books are forcing you
to pay a big time tax to back mercy Hurst.
Who will one hundred percent have a chance in this
game because that's a pretty good basketball team, So probably
nothing for me there. I just thought that that was
a fascinating discussion, and you know, we had it. Looks
like we have people on both sides of that one,
so uh, do what you will with it. But again
I saw I saw a lot of people talking about
that game, and that is another conference championship game, so
we got to talk about it on the show. All right, Rob,
let's do this. Do you know what you want to
put in the parlay? And then maybe with the last
few minutes we can find a one we both agree on.
But I'll give you the floor if you want to
give out a game right here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know what I'm gonna Again, I struggled with
which one to leave here for the group, but I'm
going to go this is a absolute some handicap to it.
Lot of gut feel. I had mentioned a couple of
weeks back, Adam that I thought Portland State was a
fatigued basketball team because they their offense just didn't do
enough to help the defense out. And their defense has
been superb ball conference season. They got a little bit
of rest. They bounced back with a big win. They
got a little rest here the way the Big Sky
Tournament works out, they got the rest Montana didn't. Portland
State's got double revenge here tonight against Montana and all
the accolades that I've thrown, you know, the way of
money Williams, the way of Montana, and their defense of
this conference championship tournament. They're the winner last year. I
think that all comes to an end here tonight. I
think Portland State, rested, is probably and again out seeking
double revenge is probably the right way to go here.
For me, Portland State has been the better of the
two this season. Montana's been very up and down. Just
the Northern Colorado results will show you how up and
down Montana has been. The consistency hasn't been there this
year for them. Loved the rise up out of them
last night, the forty point performance. I mean, obviously Williams
is a guy with a bullseye on his chest. You
have to cut the head off the state, so to speak,
in this instance, because without him, Montana's a different team offensively.
I think Portland State can do that again. I just
for me, Portland State rested is a lot better than
what they were staggering down the stretch unrested. I think
the end of the conference season, the tail end got
to them physically. It showed up in their results, and
one more time when they finally got a little breather
heading into this tournament, they came out and played really
well like they had played all season long. Remember this
is the number one seed in the tournament. Still, they
were the best team in this league all year long.
So I thought the price here a little bit light.
You have to win by three. Again, the double revenge
factor kicks in here. So for me, my leg at
the parlay, this sky's been pretty good to me all
season long, So I'll stick in that conference Portland State
minus two and a half second leg of the parlay here.
Speaker 1: All right, Yeah, I mean listen, I I this is
one where I'd probably be on the other side. I'm
just again, but this is so this is it's weird
in these conference tournaments, Rob and I think I'm gonna
just sort of finish up this this discussion with because
this is like conference tournament one oh one like mentality,
where so like I won with Montana last night, and
I am somewhat premeditated coming into this tournament saying that
that was the team I was gonna target, Like I
think Montana going into the tournament was like the team
I wanted to target to potentially make a run. Right,
So it's like, and I always struggle with this, So
I think it's like great to address on this show
because this is gonna happen a number of times this
week where you cash with a team and then you
have to sort of like fight yourself. It's like, am
I just gonna ride this team until they lose? Right? Like,
because I'm going in premeditated saying like, well, I think
Montana's gonna win this tournament, So am I going to
ride them to they lose? Or do I want to? Like,
you know, when do you get off the ride? Rob Right?
If you were if you if you stayed on the
ride with Georgia Southern and just kept running it back,
you did pretty good for yourself. So that's kind of
how I was looking at Montana. But I don't I
don't disagree with some of the you know, some of
the things you pointed out with Portland State, and yeah,
I mean, listen, the old ad is tough to be
the team three times, It certainly is. I love Bayou's
note right here, and I guess we can leave it
on this and another thing to look for in play
money Williams went to the line eighteen times last night.
They called everything around the hole. That would be Portland
State's undoing in this game if they get in a
foul trouble, because they do foul. We've talked about this
on this show a lot. Where they are they play,
you know, they have four guys that they really play,
and then like five and six play like you know,
limited minutes, and then after that it's like okay, now
who's up, seventh, who's Upbate. They are not a deep team.
Those four, their top four players play the vast majority
of the minutes. So yeah, that that could be what
swings that game one way or another. Is how that
whistle's going. And if Portland State, if Montana's getting to
the line and Portland State's racking up the files, I
think that really helps Montana in this game. So that's
that's gonna be an interesting one right there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the nineteen free throws, I would just point
out sometimes those have to be kind of categorized. Northern
Colorado was in a chase situation where they filed relentlessly
at the end of that game, lose by six, but
it was one of those what we always call it
game extension, right, A lot of your free throws are
coming during game extension, not necessarily because refs are calling
tack stuff. And then the other thing I would say
to that is, you know the referees who refereed Montana
last night, do they come back and referee Montana again tonight?
Not so sure. That's the way that works, same exact
referee crew. So Money Williams did his job. They put
the ball in his hands. That's what they're supposed to do.
If you're this team, I will say that from my perspective,
when you play Northern Colorado, who plays you know they
in Portland State are in two different hemispheres as far
as defensive capability are concerned. You come back now, you're
going to play a grinder rather than a team where
you found your way easily against and you have revenge
against a lot of that goes into the handicap here.
Good game. It's lined at two and a half for
a reason because you can make counter arguments here, like
by you, Adam and myself about this game. So again,
I think Portland State's probably the right side here. I
would pretty much assume that there's going to be a
descent in Montana's off output here tonight.
Speaker 1: All right, Rob, here's what we're gonna do. I'm gonna
take the last couple of minutes to make my case
for my Sianna Saints, who are playing in the MAC
Championship game tonight down at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City,
and then right at the end we will decide we'll
just take something that we've already talked about, whether it
be this game or maybe we go back to Gonzaga
and close out the three team parlay. I think Sianna
gets it done tonight. I talk's that's what my gut says.
Sianna gets it done. And here's why they played. So
they've now lost to Merrimack twice, but they made big
time improvements in this second game against the Merrimack zone.
If Brendan Coyle, who goes two for ten in that game.
From three has a better shooting night. He actually had
the look that would have won it in regulation. Sianna's
gonna end. Sianna wins that game. They actually probably deserve
to win that second game that they lost in ot.
Their defense has really stepped up of late, like Sianna's
playing the best defense they've played all year the last
you know, two to three weeks, and to me, like
they've they've figured out the zone enough where I just
sort of think if they can lock in on the
defensive end and just and Gavin Doty can make enough
place because that's ultimately what Merrimack does really well, and
what the reason they were able to win both of
those regular season meetings is their zone is a well
the Joe gallozone forces Sianna to shoot. Sianna is not
a great shooting team. But then the other thing is
it's made it difficult for Dody to get to the rim.
But now that he's had eighty minutes against this zone, Rob,
I feel like he started to find his way into
some of the crevices in the last game. And I
think you get a better showing from Sianna offensively than
you got in the first two meetings. I actually think
they could hold Merrimack under sixty. So I like the
Saints here, haven't bet it yet. I saw Merrimack take
some money. I'm tempted, But Rob, what about what about
an under boardwalk hall is? Because it's it's it's archbandits
two point zero. There was two more on Sunday night
when I was there. They're now seven and two for
the tournament. So do you have anything side or total?
Cianna Merrimack.
Speaker 2: Well, the problem with the total is that the vultures
have already gotten to it right, and there's nothing left
for me and you to go get one thirty and
a half down to one twenty four and a half.
So if you're early to that party, obviously the way
Adam laid that game out, you would be attracted to
under one thirty and a half one twenty four and
a half. I like to say this all the time.
Teams can get to that number. In modern day college basketball,
by mistake, you're talking about a sixty three sixty two final.
If it's a one point game, sixty three sixty two
is never undoable no matter who's on the floor. In
college who I didn't like the way Merrimack closed that
game against marit Adam. I think you made the point
really quick here on Sunday when we talked with Kelly
about unless Maris miraculously find some jump shooters, they got
no chance in this game. And for the majority of
that game, Merrimack kept their distance, the margin was there
right to cover that number, and then all of a sudden,
Merrimack goes cold, Marris makes a couple hoops and what
do you know, You're in a one point final. That's
the problem with that side is that you just can't traded.
Joe Gallows on defense is great and all of that,
but you can't trust that offense at times. You're not
trusting him to do much. Only win by four here,
that's not a lot. But in these conference championship games,
we see how they come to the wires. So I
should have worn like my Hunter green polo today. I
wasn't even thinking I should have. That's a show of
disrespect on my party today. I should have been better
than that.
Speaker 1: All right, Rob, here's what we're gonna do. I so games,
we're gonna lie, We're gonna close this parlay out right now.
Games we've talked about that. I feel we agree on Sianna, Gonzaga, maybe, uh,
right State. I'll throw those three out there, Sianna, Gonzaga,
right State. Which which of those do you like the best?
We'll we'll close it out with one of those three,
and you can throw a team total. It doesn't necessarily
have to be a side. Which of those do you
like the best?
Speaker 2: Thoroughly open to Gonzaga team total over the eighty two
and a half. I'm thoroughly open to the Right State
team total, but I think the Gonzaga we agreed. I
think you will.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna say. The only question now is
do you want to put the Gonzaga side or the
team total? I think the side may be moved a
little bit, so do we go team total? Yeah?
Speaker 2: It did move up to seven and a half now
full point moves, so I think we probably stick to
In my mind, the over eighty two and a half
seems doable. I think they get to eighty five. I
think you said that earlier. They'll probably get to eighty five,
and so.
Speaker 1: Yeah, like I mean, listen, and just a final point
as we as we sign off, right, they should be
able to get to the rim and almost name how
much they should be able to score as many as
they want to score for Santa Clara. It's gonna be
can you score with them? In my opinion, because I
just don't think Santa Clara is stringing together stop after
stop against that front court. So I'm good with that
Gizaga team totally close it out, but I do need
your rooting for my Saints. We need all the yeah,
need all the helps. We can get some some Sienna
alum paid for all the buses for the kids, so
they were going to charge the kids twenty bucks to
like drive them down there. Now it's just anyone that
wants to go, free ticket, free bus paid for by
some anonymous Sienna donor. So I think they've got upwards
of like there was already one hundred sign up and
people were still signing up. So they should have an
some nice fan support down there in ac tonight. And
like I said, I need you cheering for them. They're
not in the parlay, but the parlay is Gonzaga team
total over eighty two.
Speaker 2: And a half.
Speaker 1: Rob and I agree on that one. Rob's gonna go
with Portland State minus two and a half and I'm
gonna go with Baylor minus three and a half. I've
attached minus won twenty five juice to that one. You
can play minus four as well. That's fine. That is
the early tip, So that's noon. That's twelve thirty Eastern.
So we're going three teamer today. If you get in late,
just play the two teamer. You know. That's why I
wanted to add that third leg in case you got
in late. That's the show today. I will we will
be back. I promise I will be on a little
bit more sleep than I was on today tomorrow since
I won't be up till all hours at the er.
But I also decided I'm leaving my er bracelet on
until I lose one because I feel like that also
helped me get Santa Clara home. So yeah, everyone, have
a great day. We got hoops all day for the
rest of the week, and you'll have Rob and I,
I believe, like literally every day this month. So we'll
be back tomorrow ten am Eastern. Cash all your tickets
today and we will see you guys in the morning.