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Speaker 1: Welcome everybody to Week sixteen of the NFL. Holy shit,

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time flies, My god, I have a twenty five year

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old daughter. Wow, Week sixteen already. Anyway, if you guys

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have ever watched the show, here's how it's going to work.

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I'm gonna give you guys bets on every single game

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on the board, starting on Saturday with the Green Bay

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Packers and Chicago Bears, and ending on Monday with the

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San Francisco forty nine ers in Indianapolis Colts. Along the way,

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we're gonna have some passes. If I can't find a bet,

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I ain't gonna make it up. But let's get straight

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into game number one. The Green Bay Packers. They're on

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the road. They're playing the Chicago Bears. The total in

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this game is forty six and a half, and that's

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sort of where I'm looking, guys. I like the under

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in this game, and I know that it's tough to

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bet unders with the Chicago Bears right now. They're deep

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has not been incredible, and their offense, I mean, look,

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they can score, and they almost put up an extra

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touchdown on Green Bay in their last game and that

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game went over. But the bottom line here is the

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weather is turning. This game is in Chicago. They call

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it the Windy City because well it's windy, and also

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it's gonna be freaking cold. And not only that, but

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as we get down to these must win, crucially important games,

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because the division is on the line, playoffs are on

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the line, I think we're gonna see more playoff style games,

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which are going to be a more intense, more defensive,

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lower scoring, and I think that's literally what's going to

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happen in this game. Forty six and a half is

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a little bit too much from my perspective, and I

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like green Bay here, guys. I think green Bay is

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the better team. They beat Chicago in the last matchup,

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and I think they're gonna get it done. The line

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here is only minus one, so all we need is

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for green Bay to win this game, and that's sort

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of how I'm looking at betting this one. Take under

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the total of forty six and a half and take

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green Bay, and I would not be surprised if this

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is one of the lower scoring games of the year

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for both of these teams. Well, maybe not for green

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Bay because they've had a few real low scoring ones,

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but for Chicago for sure. Now we turned our attention

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to Philadelphia minus six and a half going into Washington.

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The total in this game is forty four and a half,

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and right off the bat, I'm going to be riding

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the Philadelphia Eagles, and I'm going to be riding them

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probably all the way through to the end. We've spoken

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about the Philadelphi Eagles many times this year. We saw

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at the beginning of last year how they just couldn't

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create any type of distance for the orst seven eight games,

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and the same thing happened this year. We saw last

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year that they had this sort of mid season lull

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where they really couldn't perform, and you know, the ceiling

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was full, the roof was coming down on them. Same

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thing happened this year, and now I think they're going

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to roll. I think this is a team that recognizes

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their weaknesses. This is a team that's trying to make adjustments,

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and it's also using their schedule to make adjustments going

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in to the playoffs. This is a team that's been

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throwing the ball much more in the last three games

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than we expected. Aj Brown has been getting a lot

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of targets. Jalen Hurts is airing the ball out, and

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what does this ultimately mean. It means they're setting up

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a run game for the playoffs. And I think we

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see this continue. I think we see Philadelphia continue to strive,

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stretch the field. I think we see Jalen Hurts continue

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to take shots down the field. And I think this

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Washington team is not very good. They're not good defensively

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and they're not good offensively. I like the over a

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little bit in this game, but I can't count on

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Washington's offense scoring a ton of points. Philadelphia's defense is unbelievable, guys.

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I think this might be a top three unit in

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the league. They shut out Vegas last week, easy, not

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that hard a thing to do. But this is a

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team defensively that's just getting better and better and better.

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I would take Philly team total over Washington team total

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under I'd pass on the total in the game, but

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I like Philadelphia minus the six and a half. Now

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we turn our attention to Sunday. But before we get

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into Sunday, I gotta give you guys a promo code.

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I have a five percent NFL playoff for Sunday. This

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is my favorite NFL play in a long long time,

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and this is an ATS NFL bet. I barely have

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ATS bets to begin with. To give you perspective, I

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am eleven and three on the year, eleven and three

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on the year in ATS bets in the NFL. This

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is my biggest one of the entire season. It goes

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on Sunday. You guys can get ten dollars off use

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the promo code pres ten. Keep in mind, I'm clear

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to sixty five percent in four and a half years

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of betting NFL ATS bets, so this is a really

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really strong bet ten dollars off. The promo code is

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pres ten. Okay, let's get into some Sunday Buffalo playing

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Cleveland here minus ten and a half. Forty one and

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a half is the total. The only way I can

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look at this game is to take the Cleveland Browns

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team total under. I don't love it. I don't love

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any bet in this game. I don't want to play

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Buffalo minus ten and a half. This is a terrible

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spot of Buffalo coming off of that big division win

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against the New England Patriots last week. I think Buffalo's

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going to get it done, don't get me wrong, It's

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just the points are too high, especially against a very

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low total so they honestly expect this game to be

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around twenty one seventeen twenty four to twenty twenty three,

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twenty So it's very hard to lay ten points when

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they're not expecting many points to begin with. With that said,

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I cannot bet the Cleveland Browns here. I just don't

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know if they're going to score. So the only way

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I can look at this game is to make the

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Cleveland Browns total under. It'll be under fourteen, It'll likely

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be somewhere around twelve and a half. I'm okay with that.

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I don't think they get two touchdowns in this game.

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New York Jets playing the New Orleans Saints. New Orleans

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Saints minus five. Believe it or not, Guys, I kind

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of like the dog here now. I don't think I've

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bet the New York Jets all year, but man, I

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don't want to be laying points for the New Orleans Saints.

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I understand they had a big game last week, they

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beat Carolina. I think this is a bad spot for them.

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Carolina was a division team last week, a team they

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wanted to win, and this is a game that I

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think both teams come in feeling like, oh well, let's

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just nobody get injured. I also like the under in

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this game foray and a half because I think this

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is going to be a game played tight to the

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vest I'll take the under and I'll take the dog

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in this matchup. I won't be watching it. Just for

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the record, Minnesota playing the New York Giants minus street

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for the Minnesota Vikings. The totally are forty three and

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a half. And I like the Minnesota Vikings. I love

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their coach. I actually man crush on their coach. I

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think he's one of the best coaches in football, if

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not right up there in the top three. And I

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think the Minnesota team is coming to play. We saw

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what they did last week. McCarthy's playing much better. Now.

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This defense is absolutely stacked. They got weapons everywhere. And

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the New York Giants are in the driver's seat for

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the first round draft pick. Why screw that up? Now,

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no reason to overthink this. Take the Minnesota Vikings at

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minus three. Now New England is playing Baltimore. We're gonna

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leave that game to the end, even though it's part

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in the rotation order right where it is a rotation

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one to one three. We'll move on to the Tampa

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Bay Carolina game, and this game is for all the marbles, guys.

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I think these two teams play each other in the

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next twice in the next three weeks. This is all

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timately gonna be who makes the playoffs, and I think

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Tampa Bay is the team to bet here. They're minus

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three now. Tampa Bay has not been very impressive, and

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they had a horrible loss to New Orleans last week.

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I think I mentioned that New Orleans played Carolina last week.

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That was not correct. They played Tampa Bay and they

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played well, and they showed that they could. They cared.

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But this Tampa Bay team is better than this Carolina team.

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They're going in minus three, that's a field goal. I

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think they could win this game by more than seven.

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I think this Carolina team is phony and Tampa Bay

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is getting all of their players back. And we saw

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how upset Mike Evans was when they lost last game

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against Orleans. I think this was one of those weeks

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where it was like, you know, player only conversations, player

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only locker room, everyone getting upset at each other, then

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the vibe coming together positively. I think Tampa Bay comes

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into this game. I think they win it handily. Take

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Tampa Bay minus to three, Kansas City playing Tennessee. You know,

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Kansas City has played what five must win games in

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a row. I think they've lost to all of them

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except one. Well, guess what, They're not in a must

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win game this time around. Now they're playing Tennessee and

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they're only minus three. I guarantee you this Kansas City

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team plays hard all the way to the end. I

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know they're out of the playoffs, I get it, but

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this is a veteran roster. Kelsey has already come out

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and said they're gonna play to win. And this Tennessee

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team is a shell of a team. They've got a

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decent defense, but they're missing people on their O line.

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Their offense is mediocre at best, which is why the

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total is so low. I'm going to take Kansas City

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in this game minus three. LA Chargers playing Dallas. Is

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this another one of those false favorites? Is this another

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one of those games like where Denver was plus two

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at home winning ten straight games and hosting the Green

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Bay Packers. Is this one of those? You know Houston

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has won six in a row and going into Kansas

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City and find themselves as a dog. Is this one

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of those LA Chargers are rocking and rolling and head

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over to Kansas City as a plus six dog. Yes

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it is. It's exactly one of those games. How the

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all of the Dallas Cowboys favored of this game. I

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understand that the LA Chargers have injuries, but this LA

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Chargers team has been getting it done no matter who

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plays for them, no matter what their offensive line looks like.

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I look at this game and I think, Okay, Dallas

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is great at home? Sure are they really? No, they're not.

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Their defense is mediocre, their offense spotters and is inconsistent,

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and this LA Chargers team can play against anyone in

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any style. You want LA to go into Kansas City

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and beat them ten three, ten six, seventeen thirteen, no problem.

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You want LA to go into Dallas and beat them

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thirty four point thirty one, Okay, sure, no problem. It

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doesn't matter the style of game. The LA Chargers always

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come to play. One of the best coach teams in

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the league. Don't understand why they're a dog. Take the

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LA Chargers here minus the three Atlanta playing Arizona. Believe

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it or not. I like Arizona in this game, not

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very much, mind you. So This is gonna be one

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of those one of those games where I'm likely gonna pass.

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But if I had to bet, I would take the

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home Arizona Cardinals plus three points. Jacksonville going into Denver.

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Shout out to Jacksonville, new coach, looking good, Fabio had

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the game of his life last time around. But I'm

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gonna go to Denver here. This Denver team beats anybody

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they put in front of him. What's it now, Eleven

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in a row. They've beaten bad teams, They've beaten good teams.

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They just did Green Bay come in, they beat them.

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I think Jacksonville is good. I think Denver is better.

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I think Denver has a much better defense. It's playing

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in altitude, playing in shitty weather, playing with a better defense,

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playing with a better coach and a more consistent offense,

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in an offense that turns the over less. I'm taking

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Denver minus the three. Pittsburgh playing Detroit. Look, I told

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you guys, I'm not high on this Pittsburgh Steeler team.

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They're not gonna win this game. Even at minus six

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and a half. I think Detroit is the play here.

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This Detroit team is not out of it yet. They

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still have Chicago up there, there is still a pathway,

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and under Dan Campbell, this Detroit team could be zero

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to ten and they'll still play their heart out. They're

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coming in to their stadium on the track, playing a

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Steelers team that is lacking offense. I just don't think

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the Steelers will be able to keep up. I think

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Detroit wins this game by more than ten. So take

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the Lions minus the seven, Houston minus fourteen and a

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half hosting Las Vegas. I'm gonna do what I've been

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doing every week. I'm just gonna take the Las Vegas

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team total under. It might be one, so be it.

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We'll take it under one. I mean, they're playing maybe

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the SD unit in all of football right there with

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the Philadelphia Eagles. And we saw how many points in

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Las Vegas Raiders were able to put up against Philadelphia.

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They put up a zero against Philadelphia. Maybe they get

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three on Houston, maybe they get nine. Either way, their

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team total is staying under. Cincinnati hosting on the road

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playing Miami. Who's quarterbacking were Miami? I don't know Carrie

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Ulis from the Princess Bride, Nigo Montoya. Does it matter?

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This is Miami team? Oh God, they horrible, and I

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think Cincinnati keeps playing. I'm gonna take Cincinnati in this game,

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but I'm not betting this game. Guys. This game's basically

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an outright pass. Now we turn our attention to New

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England and Baltimore, and I like the over in this game.

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I like the over in this game a lot. I mean,

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the bottom line here is I was on the over

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as a five percent play when New England played last week.

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It went over a lot. Over. Look, Baltimore's defense is

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getting better and better every single week, but they're not

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going to be able to stop New England. New England

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is going to get into the twenties, and New England's

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defense when they finally play good teams, is not nearly

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as good as everyone expected. Baltimore is going to get

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into the high twenties. I think both of these teams

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get into the high twenties. And the total in this

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game is only forty eight. I know it'll be cold,

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I know it might be windy, but man, Baltimore's running

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game is coming together. I just think this line is

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way too low. Take over the total of forty eight

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in the Baltimore New England game. Now before we get

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into the Monday night game. I just want to remind you, guys,

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I have a five percent play up in the NFL

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this Sunday. This five percent play is an ATS bet.

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It is my strongest fricking ATS bet of the year.

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I am eleven and three in NFL ATS bets on

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the season, and I am sixty four and a half

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percent in almost five years of regular season ATS betting. So, guys,

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I cannot stress how strong this play is. And you

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can get ten dollars off pres ten is the promo code. Okay,

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let's not overthink this Monday night football game. I don't

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know who's playing quarterback for Indianapolis, doesn't matter. Maybe it's

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Inigo Montoya again for all I know. I mean, they

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did kill his father, so the forty nine ers need

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to prepare to die. With that said, the forty nine

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ers are going to crush this Indianapolis Colts team. I mean,

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this game's indoors and we see what San Francisco's offense

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can do. Indianapolis's defense is okay, but I mean, how

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is this Colts team going to keep up? And on

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top of all of that, the emotion, the hike of

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this Colts team must be at a very low level.

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This is a team that had no expectations coming into

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the season, then they led the league after seven games,

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and now they're done. And I think you will see it.

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I think you'll feel it. I think their body language

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will be bad. I think this team probably in a

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horrible practice week. I can't see the Indianapolis Colts winning

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this game. And yeah, although I don't want to lay

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six on the road, it's indoors. It suits Fran's offense.

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They're gonna run all over this team. Take the forty

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nine ers minus the six. That's it for Week sixteen

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of the NFL Report. The Presidential Address. I am Lawrence Presman.

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I really appreciate you guys watching this show. It's really awesome.

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We're twenty years deep into doing this. Please put up comments.

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I want to apologize for the show going up late.

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I was away and I actually did take my camera equipment,

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but it broke on the plane, so I was unable

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to do it on Tuesday. Thanks Thoughe for watching. Everybody.

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Make sure to bet my five percent play on Sunday

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and at Lots of Love. Will see you all next week.