Speaker 1: Welcome everybody to Week sixteen of the NFL. Holy shit,
time flies, My god, I have a twenty five year
old daughter. Wow, Week sixteen already. Anyway, if you guys
have ever watched the show, here's how it's going to work.
I'm gonna give you guys bets on every single game
on the board, starting on Saturday with the Green Bay
Packers and Chicago Bears, and ending on Monday with the
San Francisco forty nine ers in Indianapolis Colts. Along the way,
we're gonna have some passes. If I can't find a bet,
I ain't gonna make it up. But let's get straight
into game number one. The Green Bay Packers. They're on
the road. They're playing the Chicago Bears. The total in
this game is forty six and a half, and that's
sort of where I'm looking, guys. I like the under
in this game, and I know that it's tough to
bet unders with the Chicago Bears right now. They're deep
has not been incredible, and their offense, I mean, look,
they can score, and they almost put up an extra
touchdown on Green Bay in their last game and that
game went over. But the bottom line here is the
weather is turning. This game is in Chicago. They call
it the Windy City because well it's windy, and also
it's gonna be freaking cold. And not only that, but
as we get down to these must win, crucially important games,
because the division is on the line, playoffs are on
the line, I think we're gonna see more playoff style games,
which are going to be a more intense, more defensive,
lower scoring, and I think that's literally what's going to
happen in this game. Forty six and a half is
a little bit too much from my perspective, and I
like green Bay here, guys. I think green Bay is
the better team. They beat Chicago in the last matchup,
and I think they're gonna get it done. The line
here is only minus one, so all we need is
for green Bay to win this game, and that's sort
of how I'm looking at betting this one. Take under
the total of forty six and a half and take
green Bay, and I would not be surprised if this
is one of the lower scoring games of the year
for both of these teams. Well, maybe not for green
Bay because they've had a few real low scoring ones,
but for Chicago for sure. Now we turned our attention
to Philadelphia minus six and a half going into Washington.
The total in this game is forty four and a half,
and right off the bat, I'm going to be riding
the Philadelphia Eagles, and I'm going to be riding them
probably all the way through to the end. We've spoken
about the Philadelphi Eagles many times this year. We saw
at the beginning of last year how they just couldn't
create any type of distance for the orst seven eight games,
and the same thing happened this year. We saw last
year that they had this sort of mid season lull
where they really couldn't perform, and you know, the ceiling
was full, the roof was coming down on them. Same
thing happened this year, and now I think they're going
to roll. I think this is a team that recognizes
their weaknesses. This is a team that's trying to make adjustments,
and it's also using their schedule to make adjustments going
in to the playoffs. This is a team that's been
throwing the ball much more in the last three games
than we expected. Aj Brown has been getting a lot
of targets. Jalen Hurts is airing the ball out, and
what does this ultimately mean. It means they're setting up
a run game for the playoffs. And I think we
see this continue. I think we see Philadelphia continue to strive,
stretch the field. I think we see Jalen Hurts continue
to take shots down the field. And I think this
Washington team is not very good. They're not good defensively
and they're not good offensively. I like the over a
little bit in this game, but I can't count on
Washington's offense scoring a ton of points. Philadelphia's defense is unbelievable, guys.
I think this might be a top three unit in
the league. They shut out Vegas last week, easy, not
that hard a thing to do. But this is a
team defensively that's just getting better and better and better.
I would take Philly team total over Washington team total
under I'd pass on the total in the game, but
I like Philadelphia minus the six and a half. Now
we turn our attention to Sunday. But before we get
into Sunday, I gotta give you guys a promo code.
I have a five percent NFL playoff for Sunday. This
is my favorite NFL play in a long long time,
and this is an ATS NFL bet. I barely have
ATS bets to begin with. To give you perspective, I
am eleven and three on the year, eleven and three
on the year in ATS bets in the NFL. This
is my biggest one of the entire season. It goes
on Sunday. You guys can get ten dollars off use
the promo code pres ten. Keep in mind, I'm clear
to sixty five percent in four and a half years
of betting NFL ATS bets, so this is a really
really strong bet ten dollars off. The promo code is
pres ten. Okay, let's get into some Sunday Buffalo playing
Cleveland here minus ten and a half. Forty one and
a half is the total. The only way I can
look at this game is to take the Cleveland Browns
team total under. I don't love it. I don't love
any bet in this game. I don't want to play
Buffalo minus ten and a half. This is a terrible
spot of Buffalo coming off of that big division win
against the New England Patriots last week. I think Buffalo's
going to get it done, don't get me wrong, It's
just the points are too high, especially against a very
low total so they honestly expect this game to be
around twenty one seventeen twenty four to twenty twenty three,
twenty So it's very hard to lay ten points when
they're not expecting many points to begin with. With that said,
I cannot bet the Cleveland Browns here. I just don't
know if they're going to score. So the only way
I can look at this game is to make the
Cleveland Browns total under. It'll be under fourteen, It'll likely
be somewhere around twelve and a half. I'm okay with that.
I don't think they get two touchdowns in this game.
New York Jets playing the New Orleans Saints. New Orleans
Saints minus five. Believe it or not, Guys, I kind
of like the dog here now. I don't think I've
bet the New York Jets all year, but man, I
don't want to be laying points for the New Orleans Saints.
I understand they had a big game last week, they
beat Carolina. I think this is a bad spot for them.
Carolina was a division team last week, a team they
wanted to win, and this is a game that I
think both teams come in feeling like, oh well, let's
just nobody get injured. I also like the under in
this game foray and a half because I think this
is going to be a game played tight to the
vest I'll take the under and I'll take the dog
in this matchup. I won't be watching it. Just for
the record, Minnesota playing the New York Giants minus street
for the Minnesota Vikings. The totally are forty three and
a half. And I like the Minnesota Vikings. I love
their coach. I actually man crush on their coach. I
think he's one of the best coaches in football, if
not right up there in the top three. And I
think the Minnesota team is coming to play. We saw
what they did last week. McCarthy's playing much better. Now.
This defense is absolutely stacked. They got weapons everywhere. And
the New York Giants are in the driver's seat for
the first round draft pick. Why screw that up? Now,
no reason to overthink this. Take the Minnesota Vikings at
minus three. Now New England is playing Baltimore. We're gonna
leave that game to the end, even though it's part
in the rotation order right where it is a rotation
one to one three. We'll move on to the Tampa
Bay Carolina game, and this game is for all the marbles, guys.
I think these two teams play each other in the
next twice in the next three weeks. This is all
timately gonna be who makes the playoffs, and I think
Tampa Bay is the team to bet here. They're minus
three now. Tampa Bay has not been very impressive, and
they had a horrible loss to New Orleans last week.
I think I mentioned that New Orleans played Carolina last week.
That was not correct. They played Tampa Bay and they
played well, and they showed that they could. They cared.
But this Tampa Bay team is better than this Carolina team.
They're going in minus three, that's a field goal. I
think they could win this game by more than seven.
I think this Carolina team is phony and Tampa Bay
is getting all of their players back. And we saw
how upset Mike Evans was when they lost last game
against Orleans. I think this was one of those weeks
where it was like, you know, player only conversations, player
only locker room, everyone getting upset at each other, then
the vibe coming together positively. I think Tampa Bay comes
into this game. I think they win it handily. Take
Tampa Bay minus to three, Kansas City playing Tennessee. You know,
Kansas City has played what five must win games in
a row. I think they've lost to all of them
except one. Well, guess what, They're not in a must
win game this time around. Now they're playing Tennessee and
they're only minus three. I guarantee you this Kansas City
team plays hard all the way to the end. I
know they're out of the playoffs, I get it, but
this is a veteran roster. Kelsey has already come out
and said they're gonna play to win. And this Tennessee
team is a shell of a team. They've got a
decent defense, but they're missing people on their O line.
Their offense is mediocre at best, which is why the
total is so low. I'm going to take Kansas City
in this game minus three. LA Chargers playing Dallas. Is
this another one of those false favorites? Is this another
one of those games like where Denver was plus two
at home winning ten straight games and hosting the Green
Bay Packers. Is this one of those? You know Houston
has won six in a row and going into Kansas
City and find themselves as a dog. Is this one
of those LA Chargers are rocking and rolling and head
over to Kansas City as a plus six dog. Yes
it is. It's exactly one of those games. How the
all of the Dallas Cowboys favored of this game. I
understand that the LA Chargers have injuries, but this LA
Chargers team has been getting it done no matter who
plays for them, no matter what their offensive line looks like.
I look at this game and I think, Okay, Dallas
is great at home? Sure are they really? No, they're not.
Their defense is mediocre, their offense spotters and is inconsistent,
and this LA Chargers team can play against anyone in
any style. You want LA to go into Kansas City
and beat them ten three, ten six, seventeen thirteen, no problem.
You want LA to go into Dallas and beat them
thirty four point thirty one, Okay, sure, no problem. It
doesn't matter the style of game. The LA Chargers always
come to play. One of the best coach teams in
the league. Don't understand why they're a dog. Take the
LA Chargers here minus the three Atlanta playing Arizona. Believe
it or not. I like Arizona in this game, not
very much, mind you. So This is gonna be one
of those one of those games where I'm likely gonna pass.
But if I had to bet, I would take the
home Arizona Cardinals plus three points. Jacksonville going into Denver.
Shout out to Jacksonville, new coach, looking good, Fabio had
the game of his life last time around. But I'm
gonna go to Denver here. This Denver team beats anybody
they put in front of him. What's it now, Eleven
in a row. They've beaten bad teams, They've beaten good teams.
They just did Green Bay come in, they beat them.
I think Jacksonville is good. I think Denver is better.
I think Denver has a much better defense. It's playing
in altitude, playing in shitty weather, playing with a better defense,
playing with a better coach and a more consistent offense,
in an offense that turns the over less. I'm taking
Denver minus the three. Pittsburgh playing Detroit. Look, I told
you guys, I'm not high on this Pittsburgh Steeler team.
They're not gonna win this game. Even at minus six
and a half. I think Detroit is the play here.
This Detroit team is not out of it yet. They
still have Chicago up there, there is still a pathway,
and under Dan Campbell, this Detroit team could be zero
to ten and they'll still play their heart out. They're
coming in to their stadium on the track, playing a
Steelers team that is lacking offense. I just don't think
the Steelers will be able to keep up. I think
Detroit wins this game by more than ten. So take
the Lions minus the seven, Houston minus fourteen and a
half hosting Las Vegas. I'm gonna do what I've been
doing every week. I'm just gonna take the Las Vegas
team total under. It might be one, so be it.
We'll take it under one. I mean, they're playing maybe
the SD unit in all of football right there with
the Philadelphia Eagles. And we saw how many points in
Las Vegas Raiders were able to put up against Philadelphia.
They put up a zero against Philadelphia. Maybe they get
three on Houston, maybe they get nine. Either way, their
team total is staying under. Cincinnati hosting on the road
playing Miami. Who's quarterbacking were Miami? I don't know Carrie
Ulis from the Princess Bride, Nigo Montoya. Does it matter?
This is Miami team? Oh God, they horrible, and I
think Cincinnati keeps playing. I'm gonna take Cincinnati in this game,
but I'm not betting this game. Guys. This game's basically
an outright pass. Now we turn our attention to New
England and Baltimore, and I like the over in this game.
I like the over in this game a lot. I mean,
the bottom line here is I was on the over
as a five percent play when New England played last week.
It went over a lot. Over. Look, Baltimore's defense is
getting better and better every single week, but they're not
going to be able to stop New England. New England
is going to get into the twenties, and New England's
defense when they finally play good teams, is not nearly
as good as everyone expected. Baltimore is going to get
into the high twenties. I think both of these teams
get into the high twenties. And the total in this
game is only forty eight. I know it'll be cold,
I know it might be windy, but man, Baltimore's running
game is coming together. I just think this line is
way too low. Take over the total of forty eight
in the Baltimore New England game. Now before we get
into the Monday night game. I just want to remind you, guys,
I have a five percent play up in the NFL
this Sunday. This five percent play is an ATS bet.
It is my strongest fricking ATS bet of the year.
I am eleven and three in NFL ATS bets on
the season, and I am sixty four and a half
percent in almost five years of regular season ATS betting. So, guys,
I cannot stress how strong this play is. And you
can get ten dollars off pres ten is the promo code. Okay,
let's not overthink this Monday night football game. I don't
know who's playing quarterback for Indianapolis, doesn't matter. Maybe it's
Inigo Montoya again for all I know. I mean, they
did kill his father, so the forty nine ers need
to prepare to die. With that said, the forty nine
ers are going to crush this Indianapolis Colts team. I mean,
this game's indoors and we see what San Francisco's offense
can do. Indianapolis's defense is okay, but I mean, how
is this Colts team going to keep up? And on
top of all of that, the emotion, the hike of
this Colts team must be at a very low level.
This is a team that had no expectations coming into
the season, then they led the league after seven games,
and now they're done. And I think you will see it.
I think you'll feel it. I think their body language
will be bad. I think this team probably in a
horrible practice week. I can't see the Indianapolis Colts winning
this game. And yeah, although I don't want to lay
six on the road, it's indoors. It suits Fran's offense.
They're gonna run all over this team. Take the forty
nine ers minus the six. That's it for Week sixteen
of the NFL Report. The Presidential Address. I am Lawrence Presman.
I really appreciate you guys watching this show. It's really awesome.
We're twenty years deep into doing this. Please put up comments.
I want to apologize for the show going up late.
I was away and I actually did take my camera equipment,
but it broke on the plane, so I was unable
to do it on Tuesday. Thanks Thoughe for watching. Everybody.
Make sure to bet my five percent play on Sunday
and at Lots of Love. Will see you all next week.