Speaker 1: I think we're seeing all time highs in the s
and P five hundred set and until these two things happen,
I think we're going to bounce around between that six
thousand maybe sixty one hundred restraint and that's in that
fifty seven to fifty eight hundred support. We're just going
to see it continue to set real idle until things
become clear. And one last thing I'll add next month,
perhaps we're still talking about the FED did nothing, but
we are hoping that in September we see a rate cut.
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Speaker 3: And welcome. You are listening to and watching the Financial
Survival Network of your host. Carry lets Dale's father is
with us now. We're talking about the interest rates, we're
talking about well, the economy, dah. It's great to have
you back on. So what are you making of How's
latest inaction? Is he putting off cutting rates as long
as he possibly can. What do you make of it?
Speaker 1: Yeah, ye, I mean he's definitely the delaying it as
long as he possibly can. You're exactly right. I mean,
at this point in time, we probably should have already
had a rate cut based off of the data, looking
at what we're looking at now with the war, with
the trade deals that are still not settled. We've got July.
Now we've got an August deadline that's coming up with
the EU and China. This type of uncertainty is probably
going to force him to hold his hand even again
in July, and then we've got I would say, a
September expectation of rate cuts. I saw today, Carrier. I
think it was maybe ninety five percent chance of no
action again in July, is what the markets price the
me in right now. So at this point they're just
hanging tight.
Speaker 3: Really, you think that's so? You think that's the way
it's going to be.
Speaker 1: I would love to see one before the end of summer.
Up until the war broke out. Literally, I was putting
out some publications right on the eleventh of June saying
I expect a rate cut not this time, but in July.
I expect a rate cut before the end of summer,
and then I expect a rate cut, the second rate
cut for twenty twenty five in the fall. And to
be real frank with you, I don't know that the
one in summers is going to happen, simply because of
the timidness of what we've seen with the FED, the
war's uncertainty, the rate cuts probably aren't going to come
until we had some sort of certainty around EU because
they're afraid of tariffs affecting inflation. And I think it's
already proof is in the pudding, if you will, that
tariffs haven't made an inflation impact like we expected. And
quite frankly, I'm not surprised. Tariffs are a demand destroyer.
We talked about this the last time we were together.
The demand destroyer of tariffs CAUs prices to stay pretty stagnant,
and just like we saw in twenty seventeen.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, really, according to some number, I think maybe
the Treasury Secretary mentioned it that one of the last
time Trump imposed tariffs, the Chinese and the other countries
involved basically just eight two thirds of them and passed
along a third.
Speaker 1: Sure, and I saw a statistic the other day that
was talking about the already the result of the Chinese
negotiations to this point is that and I might be
wrong on these numbers, so we might want to fact
check this maybe in the details, but twenty percent tariff
theoretically was going against American goods when we sent it
to them, they were tariffing our goods at twenty percent.
Now they're tariffed at ten, So we got a ten
percent positive swing there. And then we were tariffing their
goods at only twenty and now we're tariffing at thirty
And that's just during the negotiation time. We have a
twenty percent swing to our favor, and that's just without
the finalization of the actual deal. So theoretically, as long
as China upholds their end of the bargain, once all
of this is settled, I think you've got stocks like
Apple that haven't really seen the takeoff that the other
mag seven have that we'll start to see a catch
up trade simply for the open business sign that will
be posted in China.
Speaker 3: So all right, well, so what's your thoughts? Where are
we heading here?
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I've expected at least until again, everything
with the missiles. When missiles started landing in a run,
a lot of our market expectations had to be rejostled,
just to tad, But I still expect a sixty one
hundred s and p five hundred, and I think it
will bounce between that sixty one hundred restraint and a
fifty seven hundred probably resistance or support. Rather, we've got
a we've got a pretty strong support, I think at
that fifty seven hundred points, even if America gets involved.
You know, there is one rosy picture that America gets involved.
We send a bunker buster, and you know, we've got
a we've got one plane that's theoretically exposed for a
very short period of time, and we neutralize Iran's capability
of ever getting back into this nuclear war. Now, if
that's the case, I think that's going to be a
tailwind for the market. The variable of Iran has been
a variable for at least twenty years, and to be
real frank with you, I think we've had this same
repeat of history over the last four decades in the
Middle East. My hope and my true conviction is that
Donald Trump, at least at this point, he has handled
it as well as you could expect. There's not been
this knee jerk reaction carry which we've become accustomed to
first and ask for details later. That's not been the
way he's handled this. He's been very firm, very strong
with his words and pointed saying Iran will not have
a nuclear weapon, and if America has to get involved
and we can end that threat, then so be it.
Long story short, I believe that as long as America
handles this tactfully and we aren't out there pressing for
a regime change, we should be able to break the
cycle of history that we've seen in the Middle East
again the last forty years.
Speaker 3: Well, let's hope that that's the case. And I think
we're a little more involved in it than the President
is indicating, And I think there's been a lot more
support aerial refueling, all these things. They sent two hundred
planes over to Iran and they don't really have that
extensive aerial refueling capability like the US has. So I
think the United States a lot more involved in this already.
So to think that we're backing out of at this point,
I think we're just waiting to see if the government
of Irana is going to collapse or not.
Speaker 1: You've got a good point there, and hopefully again, you know,
a lot of this we would maybe leave in the
hand of the creator. We just pray that nothing fills
that vacuum like it did in say Libya, or Afghanistan
or Iraq. This type of thought. Though, what you just
said about America already being involved, I'm right there with you.
I think we are theoretically already involved. Iran knows that
as well. Israel is as good as they are, Israel
could not have survived the barrage of nuclear missiles that
excuse me, of missiles in general over Tel Aviv had
it not been for America's involvement over the last couple
of decades. The Iron Dome itself is direct American involvement.
And if you think through America getting directly if you
will directly involved, I do hope that it is simply
by using some of our own munition in the attack
rather than boots on the ground in Iran.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I guess we're gonna find out. But you know,
the markets were a little rattled by it at first,
but they seem to have the kind of found stability, right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all as well, I mean, you know, if I
were a town crier, I would be saying, it's it's
seven days into the war and all is well. There's
no real there's no real breakage on any front that
we look at. Even the jobless claims that came back
seem and clearly this is like driving the car in
the rearview mirror. We've talked about it, but the jobless claims,
the consumer sentiment reports that we're seeing say that most
Americans are satisfied. They're they're they're they're keeping their jobs,
their sentiment, their their thoughts around the market are positive
as a whole. This is looking good. And you know
what's also a key indicator of how America will react
is do we see a flood into security like for instance,
T bills or treasury notes. This type of hasn't really
taken place. We also haven't seen oil get to one
hundred dollars a barrel like we would traditionally have expected
in this type of a breakout in the middle least.
So all again, all is well.
Speaker 3: All right, So when we have this discussion next month,
where are we going to be?
Speaker 1: Uh? You know, I think that honestly, when this all happened, Carrie.
My initial reaction the day of and even that weekend
last weekend, it was Father's Day weekend, and I'm thinking, hey,
you know by Monday, this will be a non story. Well,
just like you said, we've been a little bit more
involved than maybe they were leading on. And I do
think that American involvement becomes a point unless unless Iron
turns over and says, hey, complete surrender. And Donald Trump
has made that very clear. It's either complete surrender or
we're coming to get you. If America is involved, or
if America is not involved. I think a month from
now this is not the story that we're focused on.
Let's see a month from now. Theoretically, we're hoping that
European Union trade deals behind us and that we have
a very clear decisive path forward for a trade deal
being completed in China. Again, if these two things happen,
I think we're seeing all time highs in the s
and P five hundred set. And until these two things happen,
I think we're going to bounce around between that six thousand,
maybe sixty one hundred restraint and that's in that fifty
seven fifty eight hundred support. We're just going to see
it continue to set a real idle until things become clear.
And one last thing I'll add next month, perhaps we're
still talking about the Fed did nothing, but we are
hoping that in September we see a rate cut and
that will again act as a tailwind for the market.
Speaker 3: All right, Well from your mouth, Dale, Great to have
you back on the show. Just tell us where going
to find you yet?
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you can navigate to our website urdswealth dot
com rdswealth dot com. While you're there, subscribe to our
newsletter that we send out on a weekly basis, Market commentary,
a little bit of weekend Rea for those who are
in or close to retirement. Ways to live happy in retirement,
spending more time with the people you care about, less
time worrying about the market.
Speaker 3: Great. Hey, if you got any questions for Dale myself
shooting email kl at Carrie lets dot com. You'll find
a link to Dale's site and the show that's this
interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. When you go there,
we just ask you sign up for our free newsletter. Dale.
Been a pleasure, Thanks for stopping by. We'll talk to
you soon.
Speaker 1: Always a pleasure to seek Kerry.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,