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Speaker 1: I think we're seeing all time highs in the s

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and P five hundred set and until these two things happen,

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I think we're going to bounce around between that six

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thousand maybe sixty one hundred restraint and that's in that

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fifty seven to fifty eight hundred support. We're just going

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to see it continue to set real idle until things

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become clear. And one last thing I'll add next month,

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perhaps we're still talking about the FED did nothing, but

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we are hoping that in September we see a rate cut.

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Speaker 2: You are listening to Carrie Let'sa's Financial Survival Network where

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you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else

12
00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:39,159
to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial

13
00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:44,320
Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork

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dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 3: And welcome. You are listening to and watching the Financial

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Survival Network of your host. Carry lets Dale's father is

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with us now. We're talking about the interest rates, we're

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talking about well, the economy, dah. It's great to have

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you back on. So what are you making of How's

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latest inaction? Is he putting off cutting rates as long

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as he possibly can. What do you make of it?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, ye, I mean he's definitely the delaying it as

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long as he possibly can. You're exactly right. I mean,

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at this point in time, we probably should have already

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had a rate cut based off of the data, looking

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at what we're looking at now with the war, with

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the trade deals that are still not settled. We've got July.

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Now we've got an August deadline that's coming up with

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the EU and China. This type of uncertainty is probably

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going to force him to hold his hand even again

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in July, and then we've got I would say, a

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September expectation of rate cuts. I saw today, Carrier. I

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think it was maybe ninety five percent chance of no

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action again in July, is what the markets price the

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me in right now. So at this point they're just

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hanging tight.

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Speaker 3: Really, you think that's so? You think that's the way

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it's going to be.

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Speaker 1: I would love to see one before the end of summer.

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Up until the war broke out. Literally, I was putting

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out some publications right on the eleventh of June saying

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I expect a rate cut not this time, but in July.

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I expect a rate cut before the end of summer,

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and then I expect a rate cut, the second rate

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cut for twenty twenty five in the fall. And to

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be real frank with you, I don't know that the

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one in summers is going to happen, simply because of

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the timidness of what we've seen with the FED, the

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war's uncertainty, the rate cuts probably aren't going to come

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until we had some sort of certainty around EU because

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they're afraid of tariffs affecting inflation. And I think it's

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already proof is in the pudding, if you will, that

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tariffs haven't made an inflation impact like we expected. And

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quite frankly, I'm not surprised. Tariffs are a demand destroyer.

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We talked about this the last time we were together.

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The demand destroyer of tariffs CAUs prices to stay pretty stagnant,

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and just like we saw in twenty seventeen.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, really, according to some number, I think maybe

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the Treasury Secretary mentioned it that one of the last

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time Trump imposed tariffs, the Chinese and the other countries

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involved basically just eight two thirds of them and passed

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along a third.

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Speaker 1: Sure, and I saw a statistic the other day that

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was talking about the already the result of the Chinese

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negotiations to this point is that and I might be

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wrong on these numbers, so we might want to fact

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check this maybe in the details, but twenty percent tariff

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theoretically was going against American goods when we sent it

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to them, they were tariffing our goods at twenty percent.

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Now they're tariffed at ten, So we got a ten

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percent positive swing there. And then we were tariffing their

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goods at only twenty and now we're tariffing at thirty

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And that's just during the negotiation time. We have a

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twenty percent swing to our favor, and that's just without

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the finalization of the actual deal. So theoretically, as long

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as China upholds their end of the bargain, once all

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of this is settled, I think you've got stocks like

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Apple that haven't really seen the takeoff that the other

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mag seven have that we'll start to see a catch

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up trade simply for the open business sign that will

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be posted in China.

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Speaker 3: So all right, well, so what's your thoughts? Where are

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we heading here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I've expected at least until again, everything

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with the missiles. When missiles started landing in a run,

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a lot of our market expectations had to be rejostled,

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just to tad, But I still expect a sixty one

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hundred s and p five hundred, and I think it

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will bounce between that sixty one hundred restraint and a

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fifty seven hundred probably resistance or support. Rather, we've got

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a we've got a pretty strong support, I think at

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that fifty seven hundred points, even if America gets involved.

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You know, there is one rosy picture that America gets involved.

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We send a bunker buster, and you know, we've got

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a we've got one plane that's theoretically exposed for a

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very short period of time, and we neutralize Iran's capability

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of ever getting back into this nuclear war. Now, if

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that's the case, I think that's going to be a

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tailwind for the market. The variable of Iran has been

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a variable for at least twenty years, and to be

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real frank with you, I think we've had this same

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repeat of history over the last four decades in the

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Middle East. My hope and my true conviction is that

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Donald Trump, at least at this point, he has handled

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it as well as you could expect. There's not been

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this knee jerk reaction carry which we've become accustomed to

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first and ask for details later. That's not been the

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way he's handled this. He's been very firm, very strong

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with his words and pointed saying Iran will not have

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a nuclear weapon, and if America has to get involved

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and we can end that threat, then so be it.

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Long story short, I believe that as long as America

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handles this tactfully and we aren't out there pressing for

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a regime change, we should be able to break the

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cycle of history that we've seen in the Middle East

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again the last forty years.

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Speaker 3: Well, let's hope that that's the case. And I think

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we're a little more involved in it than the President

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is indicating, And I think there's been a lot more

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support aerial refueling, all these things. They sent two hundred

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planes over to Iran and they don't really have that

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extensive aerial refueling capability like the US has. So I

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think the United States a lot more involved in this already.

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So to think that we're backing out of at this point,

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I think we're just waiting to see if the government

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of Irana is going to collapse or not.

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Speaker 1: You've got a good point there, and hopefully again, you know,

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a lot of this we would maybe leave in the

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hand of the creator. We just pray that nothing fills

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that vacuum like it did in say Libya, or Afghanistan

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or Iraq. This type of thought. Though, what you just

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said about America already being involved, I'm right there with you.

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I think we are theoretically already involved. Iran knows that

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as well. Israel is as good as they are, Israel

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could not have survived the barrage of nuclear missiles that

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excuse me, of missiles in general over Tel Aviv had

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it not been for America's involvement over the last couple

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of decades. The Iron Dome itself is direct American involvement.

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And if you think through America getting directly if you

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will directly involved, I do hope that it is simply

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by using some of our own munition in the attack

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rather than boots on the ground in Iran.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I guess we're gonna find out. But you know,

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the markets were a little rattled by it at first,

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but they seem to have the kind of found stability, right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, all as well, I mean, you know, if I

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were a town crier, I would be saying, it's it's

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seven days into the war and all is well. There's

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no real there's no real breakage on any front that

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we look at. Even the jobless claims that came back

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seem and clearly this is like driving the car in

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the rearview mirror. We've talked about it, but the jobless claims,

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the consumer sentiment reports that we're seeing say that most

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Americans are satisfied. They're they're they're they're keeping their jobs,

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their sentiment, their their thoughts around the market are positive

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as a whole. This is looking good. And you know

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what's also a key indicator of how America will react

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is do we see a flood into security like for instance,

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T bills or treasury notes. This type of hasn't really

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taken place. We also haven't seen oil get to one

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hundred dollars a barrel like we would traditionally have expected

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in this type of a breakout in the middle least.

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So all again, all is well.

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Speaker 3: All right, So when we have this discussion next month,

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where are we going to be?

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Speaker 1: Uh? You know, I think that honestly, when this all happened, Carrie.

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My initial reaction the day of and even that weekend

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last weekend, it was Father's Day weekend, and I'm thinking, hey,

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you know by Monday, this will be a non story. Well,

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just like you said, we've been a little bit more

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involved than maybe they were leading on. And I do

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think that American involvement becomes a point unless unless Iron

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turns over and says, hey, complete surrender. And Donald Trump

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has made that very clear. It's either complete surrender or

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we're coming to get you. If America is involved, or

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if America is not involved. I think a month from

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now this is not the story that we're focused on.

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Let's see a month from now. Theoretically, we're hoping that

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European Union trade deals behind us and that we have

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a very clear decisive path forward for a trade deal

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being completed in China. Again, if these two things happen,

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I think we're seeing all time highs in the s

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and P five hundred set. And until these two things happen,

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I think we're going to bounce around between that six thousand,

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maybe sixty one hundred restraint and that's in that fifty

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seven fifty eight hundred support. We're just going to see

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it continue to set a real idle until things become clear.

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And one last thing I'll add next month, perhaps we're

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still talking about the Fed did nothing, but we are

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hoping that in September we see a rate cut and

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that will again act as a tailwind for the market.

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Speaker 3: All right, Well from your mouth, Dale, Great to have

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you back on the show. Just tell us where going

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to find you yet?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so you can navigate to our website urdswealth dot

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com rdswealth dot com. While you're there, subscribe to our

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newsletter that we send out on a weekly basis, Market commentary,

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a little bit of weekend Rea for those who are

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in or close to retirement. Ways to live happy in retirement,

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spending more time with the people you care about, less

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time worrying about the market.

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Speaker 3: Great. Hey, if you got any questions for Dale myself

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shooting email kl at Carrie lets dot com. You'll find

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a link to Dale's site and the show that's this

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interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. When you go there,

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we just ask you sign up for our free newsletter. Dale.

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Been a pleasure, Thanks for stopping by. We'll talk to

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you soon.

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Speaker 1: Always a pleasure to seek Kerry.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your

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solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

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Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,