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Speaker 2: Welcome, this is Financial Survival Network. Come your host Carrie
Let's and well gold have you watched gold? Have you
watched silver? Gold over twenty seven hundred dollars announced, Silver
over thirty four dollars announce today before pulling back a
little bit. And by the way, this is October twenty
first of twenty twenty four. Bob hoy is with us now,
the master of economic history who can read the future
by simply looking at the past. Bob, it's great to
have you back on. So what is happening now?
Speaker 3: Very good to be with you with our listeners. And
thanks very much for the rave review. I'm going to
try hard to live up to it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, check the accident.
Speaker 3: Silver getting a little overbought in the weekly. But the
rise is not over. It might run into resistance in
the next month or so.
Speaker 4: And there is.
Speaker 3: Some resistance and it's getting overbought, but not enough to
make a.
Speaker 4: Call to change anybody's position.
Speaker 3: And it's a good benchmark for the pressure the whole
pressures metal sector, gold and gold and silver stocks as well.
So I'm enjoying the rally and content with the gains
and looking on this move for a little more.
Speaker 2: Yet, so how much hardy much higher.
Speaker 4: Can it go?
Speaker 3: I haven't put it well as I said don silver.
It's that a zone of resistance to thirty five level.
And then they what you know, we look at it
from a historical view, and also to put the history
together carry you have to deep plate the price of gold.
Of course, it's been in the plate of it years
ago by the consumer price. In the show, we call
it the rate of inflation because in England's long history
as a senior economy, there was a long period when
gold was convertible into or the currency was convertible into
a fixed amount of gold, i e. A gold standard.
But within this the real price of gold fluctuates. The
old story about the guinea to buy a man's suit, say,
that's in very all over the place. So what happens
with gold dey plated is that it downticks going into
a great financial bubble. And of course the last big
high for golden silver was in twenty eleven. I mean
that was a blowoff. But then in as the post
bubble contraction comes in, real prices turned up. And it
has and I've got to start going this turning point
on the bubbles nineteen twenty nine, eighteen seventy three, eighteen
twenty five, seventeen seventy two, and all the way back
to seventeen twenty. So it's a consistent pattern and it
leads to overall a twenty year bow market whereby gold
real price goes up. Now, Kerri, well, last year, a
year going June, we found a nice, a more.
Speaker 4: Vivid way of looking at it.
Speaker 3: I took price the golden divide by the CRB quantity
in the then suggested that the CRB commanditied and it's
just actually a proxy for the clock the mining. The
TRB is going going down relative to the bullion price
that BABA margins are going up, and it has nothing
to do with the dollar. With the DX. Now, all
the gold and silver bugs out there all get excited
and in their mind, the only way the game will
work is the dollars going to crash. Well, here's another
one from history. One of the I got four items
that are key detracting the transition from a great financial
mania to a depression, and one of them is goldst
price going down. The middle is the bubble finished, then
going top.
Speaker 4: Got that one.
Speaker 3: The other one is that copper goes up with the
bubble and then goes down, and that one was working.
And then the other is real long interest rate like
for the tenures, it goes up. And then, of course
the court item is the US dollar becomes the senior currency,
becomes fun the firm. And I think I can give
an explanation of why this happened. During the financial bubble,
everybody around the world goes to New York, the world's
financial center, and posh money. And then when the bubbles over,
the pleasures are.
Speaker 4: That you pay the money back.
Speaker 3: So everybody out there is selling something the other guy's
currency is selling copper whatever they produce in order to
get their hands on dollars in order to service obligations.
Speaker 4: In New York is the financial capital.
Speaker 3: A long time ago, it was the British Sound and
London when London was the financial capital.
Speaker 4: So this has been around for a long time.
Speaker 3: And so I really like working with the gold divided
by the CRB. And it is up as you would
expect that new highs not over got, but this is
now I think eight months of rising. So on this
thematic all the gold miners their profit margin should be
improved roughly through this business of gold bullion price outperforming
the cost of mining. And this is a very practical
way of looking at it, rather than getting all excited
about the evils of the Fed. And the dollar is
going to go to zero, Well, there's a whole lot
of currency gout.
Speaker 4: This and we're going to go to zero before the
US dollar does, and as a.
Speaker 3: State, strengthen the senior currency and be described as being
due to the disservicing debt obligations in New York. Take
a look at Argentina. They're always complaining about the strong dollars,
but they awe huge dollars in doing table in the
New York. And then the great Thomas Gresham in fifteen
fifty he was the financial agent for England in the
money market in Antwerp, that was then the commercial and
financial center of the world, and in his letters he
points out to the crown. How difficult it is in
meeting debt obligations the weak currency to the strong senior currency.
So there's lots of letters about that and which I've
enjoyed reading. I've got a book on aggression, and then
there's many sources on aggression. So you know, there's a
pression law, which is bad bad money forces out good money.
He wrote something pretty close to that, but hey, I'll
give him credits for it. He got it, he nailed it.
And the problem is servicing debt from a week to
a strong senior currency.
Speaker 4: So this is what the world is going to be.
Speaker 3: Facing with over the next couple of decades. So, and
that's the first long time volliged on goals real price.
With the real price going up, uh, my producers, their
profit margins will be enhanced. And then even that then
puts the better valuation on on mineral exploration bets. And
it's it's just the way it works.
Speaker 2: So yeah, so rumor of the dollars demise have been
greatly exaggerated.
Speaker 3: Huh, yeah, it's not. Let's put it this way. A
posticating a good move for gold based upon a falling
dollar is a speculation in for an exchange fluctuation. But
if you go with the idea that with the commodity
praises being weak, their profit margins are improving and therefore
their cash boats are improving. So then when you're buying
the gold sector based upon a stream of increasing earnings,
that's investing. And I can see it with if the
big stock market gets bad, and I believe it will,
and then you've got ordinary fund managers, equity fund managers,
it wouldn't touch the goals with a ten foot ball.
Speaker 4: But if you get a couple of.
Speaker 3: Quarters where the GDX is outperforming VS. And P, those
guys looking for performance will have to buy the golds.
So I'm very fullish on gold stocks. We're early early
years in a multi year bull market for the gold.
Thank god you had gold stocks going to the moon.
Don't mind that sort of stuff. Foster, Yeah, Foctor started
at nineteen twenty two. And then if you go back
to previous depressions, there was always the real price went up,
and then eventually there was many unemployed and commercial areas
around the world and the real place designed, so then
you had your great mobile gold rusts at the worst
of depression.
Speaker 2: This minute understood, and yeah.
Speaker 3: Sospet eighteen forty nine to the California gold Rush, the
flash in bottom of eighteen forty four, eighteen forty five
and then eighty ninety seven gold rush up and the
Klondike was a great president ended at eighteen ninety five.
Speaker 2: Right, gotcha? So what more can we look forward to here,
Bob in.
Speaker 3: The stock market possible, it's not yet overbot, but when
it finally gets there and rolls over, we'll be going
into a bear market. On the bond side, even treasuries
are vulnerable mainly to a liquidity crisis. So for fixed
income people, we say, take a look at the three
to four year good grade US corporate bonds. You'll get
it because if you go short term right t bills
are various positive things, the field's going to head towards zero.
But if you're in a three year good grade corporate bond,
you're getting a decent yield and the price for whips
are you and it's going to be maturing at par
three years or four years hence, So that's kind of
a nice investment world. I mean, even even equity people
rather than being long equities and vulnerable there, but parking
in three to four year good grade carpet.
Speaker 2: Okay, all right, so you have a list of stocks
that you expect to perform, will so how well is
it performed so far this year?
Speaker 3: Above our list of gold juniors. Yeah, there's been a
couple of turkeys that have done nothing out of a
list I think it was eleven, but on average they're
uptempre ten is the Christmas and so. But the point
of going at gold juniors when when it.
Speaker 4: Really takes off.
Speaker 3: These things have the potent for making big moves, and
you can you can buy and leverage up on them,
but that's there. Whereas if you buy a suite of
junior gold, hey, the downside is not much and in
some cases the upside could be rather good if if
somebody may well the sector will do well in a
rising market for general gold shares because at a at
a bear market they get overlooked. Where because when you're
when you come out, you get the gold starts out
performing first, then the middling size once and then finally the.
Speaker 4: Juniors get.
Speaker 3: And so the percent gains in these things can be
rather good as the bull market continued.
Speaker 4: And then you.
Speaker 3: Also have the possibility that one of them could come
up with a discovery, in which case you've got a
global phenomenon. Way back when six I made a list
of five doing your goals, and one of them was Irequipa,
and it went to thirty dollars. It was taken over
by somebody for a one point one billion dollar market cap.
Speaker 4: So your goal juniors can do very well.
Speaker 2: All right, Well, always interesting speaking with you there on him.
Speaker 3: People put it far about the list and we'd be glad.
Speaker 2: To send it, all right, And actually we're going to
put a link to your list in the show notes
to this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. If
you've got a question for Bob or myself, shoot me
an email right away to kl at Carrie LUTs dot com.
We'll get your question answered quickly. And hey, while you're
at the site, please sign up for your free newsletter Bop.
Always amazing talking to you. Be well and stay dry here.
You got like major flooding up north there, so stay
drunk high.
Speaker 3: We had some rain, but it's the storms quit now
and great to talk carry look forward at anytime.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we've been having our share of rain here too
in Florida, so we can totally empathize with you. We'll
talk to you again in a month or two and
see where this mess leads us next.
Speaker 1: The thanks for listening to Carrie Lets. This Financial Survival
Network your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go
to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more
than ever,