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Speaker 1: You welcome to Way Did You Talk Today, the gold

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standard of sports betting shows where we talk the talk

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and walk the walk. It's Monday. We got a loaded card.

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We are gonna go over some NFL. We're gonna do

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some look aheads. We got NBA, we got college hoops,

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we got a few other things to go over. We're

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gonna go over the NBA props, market watch, We're gonna

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go over a lot of things, kind of recapping this

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NFL season. And no no better other person to do

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it with then my buddy Dan, Alexander Dan. How was

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the weekend? Dude?

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Speaker 2: Is a great weekend man, nice betting weekend here, and

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it's a favorite time of the year.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 2: We got NFL they still called Super wild Card Weekend

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since they do the Monday game. Regardless wild Card games

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are in action. I just want to make sure I

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get the branding right, Andy. But where your your one

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stop shop to get you ready to bet this week?

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No Monday night football to talk about for the first time, guys,

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So we're gonna be talking a little double header action

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with Steve Merrill.

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Speaker 4: That's right, two as one l and.

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Speaker 2: Two NBA games for you Nuggets Sixers, best bets coming up, Warriors,

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Clippers best bets. He's gonna stay on the hardwood, talk

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a little college basketball, big matchup Michigan State USC.

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Speaker 4: We always start with Yanni.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna go through the steam report, see what he's

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seeing as far as people hitting these early games, his thoughts,

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early thoughts on the NFL Wildcard weekend. And of course

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you know we got Bill krack Man crackham Berger that

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is take the over on the rants, you know, coming

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this Monday. He's got the NBA prop for you, and

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maybe a touch upon the college football semis. But Andy,

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all that and more hell of a weekend. Coach is

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already being fired. Pete Carroll is out, and as Zach

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Taylor is staying for the Bengals. Probably even worse than

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firing your coaches is keeping Zach Taylor around. But hey,

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this is where we're at. Andy on a Monday. Brother,

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let's get into it.

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Speaker 1: What was Raheem Morris the quickest coach.

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Speaker 4: He might have gotten fired on the sideline.

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Speaker 2: He might have gotten fired by the fourth quarter where

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they were just like, you know, crazy, the crazy thing

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about the Falcons. And also Andy, I have to pat

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myself a little bit on the back here in the

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in the open, when you and I went through our

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five picks, I said, here is how the NFC South

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will go.

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Speaker 4: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

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Speaker 2: Will win the the the Panthers are going to cover

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the game, and then the Falcons are going to win outright,

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and the Carolina Panthers will be your champion. So we

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nailed that on Friday, Andy, so so that at least

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that helped me cash a couple bets. Couldn't quite parlay

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all those results together, but but it feels good when

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you see it that well, it was just you knew

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that's how the NFC South had to end, right, and

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that ending of that Steelers game. There's so much to recap,

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there's so much to look forward to. But yeah, Raheem

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Morris fired maybe like mid fourth quarter or the blank

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game will look It was like, hey, buddy, just so

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you know, coach Hart is gonna be your last few minutes.

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And you could argueeen Morris, he is a huge part

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of what was holding that team back. I mean so

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much talent offensively, defensively. They played way better than expected

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coming into this year. And if they don't lose that

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game to the Jets. They're the team that's in the

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playoff for the NFC South, and I would have been

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cashing my playoff ticket, so I was happy. It was

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a little retribution seeing Raheem Morris out costing me that

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winning ticket.

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Speaker 1: I did not hedge my season win total on the

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Saints and just barely gets there. It barely gets there.

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Speaker 4: So you're Raheem Morris's biggest fan.

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Speaker 1: Love him, love him. Win didn't cover, didn't That's all

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I got, baby. Uh, Let's bring in Yanni. Yanni, you

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you had a heartbreaker on Baltimore on the money line

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last night. That was that correct, just Y.

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Speaker 5: I had a really good day, man, I had a

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good a good week up for twenty twenty six, already

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went four and two in the early and afternoon NFL

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four percent plays a very good day, and then at

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night I was ready to fire five percent on the

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over and I had a strong lean on Baltimore as well.

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All of a sudden, I get confirmation on Baltimore that

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they are going to steam the Baltimore side. So I said,

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let me get in on the money line before it

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gets up to like really high. Because even though in

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the series this the money line hasn't come into play

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in a while. With these two, I knew it was

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going through that key number of three. You know, it

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was already three and a half, and it ended up

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going to like four to four and a half at spots.

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So I ended up putting in some Baltimore action and

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and you saw how that turned out. But again, I'm

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excited about the playoffs. NFL season finished. I finished number

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one in profit in NFL, finished number one in profit

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in college football. As those seasons have come to a close,

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so we'll take it now, it's time to attack college basketball.

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And I just got my updated Power ratings, the exact

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same system that I used for NFL and college football.

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Speaker 6: And here's what I'll share with you guys right now.

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Speaker 5: I know that the posters look at Ken Palm a lot,

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and I respect Ken Palm's numbers.

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Speaker 6: In fact, I use his data. But here's what I

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could tell you when.

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Speaker 5: It comes to ratings and rankings, everyone has their own

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system on how they do it, and so far I

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disagree with what they have. They got Michigan as the

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best team in the country. Nothing could be further from

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the truth. They have Arizona's the second team, best team

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in the country, nothing could be further from the truth.

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They have Iowa stated as the third best team in

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the country. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact,

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they have Duke at nine. They have Duke get nine,

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and on a neutral field, Duke would be about a

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two point favorite over the field over every other team

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in all of college basketball in true power ratings, closer

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to a three point favorite. And you know who's right

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behind them, the team that's exactly behind them.

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Speaker 6: Let me see where he has them.

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Speaker 5: Is perdue at least he has them fourth, and then Gonzaga.

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Speaker 6: Which he has fifth troubled.

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Speaker 5: But some of those teams, like they got Vanderbilt in

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that I don't even.

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Speaker 6: I can't you know how far you know how far

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down I.

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Speaker 5: Have to go to fourteen, And no, Vanderbilt, they just

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cracked my Man's top thirty.

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Speaker 6: They're now twenty ninth.

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Speaker 5: They're now twenty ninth, and my Man's got them at

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number six. I don't know where they are on the

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ap pole, but that's exactly where you're going to be

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able to make some money in college basketball exactly. You

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like college football because a lot of the market is

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based on rankings, the odds makers know that the betters

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are looking at the rankings and these lines are shaded

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towards the bias of that rankings. And just like we

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took advantage in college football, going to do the same

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in college basketball. And those power rankings are as sharp

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as they come for NFL. So we're ready for these

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playoffs and going into the playoffs, the number one team

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he has adjusted and it is now the Seattle Seahawks.

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So going into last week, and it wasn't even a

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big adjustment with the Rams, they're like neck and neck

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Seattle and the Rams, but it would probably be a

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pick them in favor of Seattle this time, where just

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a week ago the Rams were about, uh, you know,

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one and a half point favorite, one one and a

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half on a neutral field. So Seattle's picked it up

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a little bit and you know that defense is legit.

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The difference between the Rams in Seattle, Seattle's had the

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number one toughest strength of schedule in the NFL the

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Rams I mean, I mean the Rams had the number

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one toughest strength of schedule in the NFL. Seattle about

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fifteenth down an average strength of schedule. So we'll see

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what happens in the playoffs. Just wanted to share some

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power ratings with you guys.

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Speaker 1: Nice. How do the do these power rankings from Ken Palmer?

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Do these have a direct impact on on the on

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the lines, Like what do the make?

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Speaker 5: Because the odds makers know that a lot of betters,

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even sharp betters, are using these numbers from Ken Pomp.

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They're using his data. In fact, even his predictions. You know,

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he puts a prediction out for you know, the every

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matchup and if you look at the point spread in

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the total, I would venture guests they're very close. Some

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will be you know, a couple points off what have you,

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but I would venture guests they're very close. And again

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that's where I think you'll find a lot of the

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edges and just learning from the betting syndicates and you know,

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sharp guys that I've worked next to and had the

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privilege of being in the room and listening to them

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talk and having those discussions like how off the rankings

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are and compared to what their numbers have, and then

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it would just play out that way. So yeah, definitely,

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Ken Palm ap those affect the betting market for sure,

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because you see it. It's even in the conversation, Oh,

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the unranked teams favored versus the ranked team. We say

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it all the time, So the fact that it's in

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the dialogue, it's just like subconsciously, we're always looking at

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the rankings, who's number one, who's number ten, who's in

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the rankings, who's un ranked, and it just has that bias.

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It's almost like we talk about, if you look up

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on the board before you create your own line for

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an MMA matchup, you're already biased on who the favorite

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of the fight is. And just like any game, if

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you look up at the board before you made your

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own line for next week's wild card games, then you've

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already been biased to conclude that Chicago should be favored,

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or Philadelphia should be favored, or New England should be favored,

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or Houston should be favored. Where if you did your

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own ratings and before you looked up, you may come

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up with something different, you know what I mean, Like, wait,

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Pittsburgh should be favored at home against Houston. But just

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we're human, So if we look up at the board

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and we see that the sportsbooks have Houston asked minus

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three juice whatever, we already assume they are the favorite.

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So that's why I like to uh set up my

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power ratings and create what my the line is it

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then look at what the board has for at least

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for the markets I have numbers to create.

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Speaker 1: Sure, sure we got a question. Can VR tell us

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anyone that's undervalued in college basketball?

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Speaker 3: Maybe?

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Speaker 1: Do you have anybody that maybe who got off the

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start that's playing good?

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Speaker 2: Now?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, great question. Let me let me let me look

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at my list right here? Where's Alabama? Alabama is not

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in the top ten. Alabama is a top ten team.

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I'll tell you that right now. Another team, let me

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look because of their record. Tennessee, Tennessee also a top

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ten team. They're barely in the top twenty. Oh, here's

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one you're gonna love. You want to talk about undervalue.

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Let me see where they have Auburn. Ken Palm has

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Auburn at thirty four. Okay, I have Auburn at eleven.

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I have Alburn at eleven. So Auburn's right outside my

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top ten, right behind Iowa State.

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Speaker 6: In Tennessee, Florida.

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Speaker 5: Another team I think that isn't even anywhere near the

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rankings because of their record. Oh, they're fourteen, and Ken

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Palm's Okay, at Florida thirteen, so that's close. But that's

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what I look at, like those teams that the record

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isn't like real sexy, but are still a really good team,

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like Kentucky who's twenty, probably not even in the power

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ratings in the rankings, I mean, but they are a

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top fifteen team power rating wise. So yeah, I would

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look at Kentucky, I would look at Auburn. And who

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else did we talk about Alabama? We said in Florida,

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not Florida, but yeah, Tennessee, Auburn's the biggest. Auburn's the biggest,

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like I said, top ten team and nowhere, nowhere in

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the power rating in the rankings because of their record.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and Yanni, you know people, you know, Andy, people

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are gonna want to know about a NFL playoffs. These

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opening lines that dropped any early action that you saw.

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But first, since we're talking college basketball, might as well

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bring up college football. Do these games get hit early

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the college football playoffs or you know you already know

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who's in so you see people playing openers on these

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have you really seen anything?

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Speaker 4: And and just your thoughts as we head on into the.

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Speaker 6: Next, great question, great question that they do.

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Speaker 5: If it immediately, you'll know if they think the market's off,

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they'll get hit immediately. That didn't happen, so now the

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only thing that will happen is.

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Speaker 6: On a side.

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Speaker 5: On a side is if you see the market move,

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like if the public moves aligne in one direction, and

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then you'll see them come in and take some value.

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But if they don't hit it early, they're probably not

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going to hit the side late. Because you got to

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remember this late in the season, these lines are really tight.

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Most of the betting syndicates they're done. They're looking at

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at team totals, they're looking at player props, maybe second

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half bets, maybe a total. But they think the sides

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the numbers are really tight and they're going to reflect

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most of their power ratings. That's why they're rarely betting

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the sides in these big playoff games. They're rarely betting

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even in the NFL playoff games, and even in the

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super Bowl, they rarely are betting a side in the

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Super Bowl.

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Speaker 6: They're betting the props maybe a total. So yeah, that's

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a great question.

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Speaker 5: That's why you don't see much of a movement like

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Indiana has been on four all week even with the

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total forty six and a half, moved a half point

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one way, then back sitting at forty six and a half.

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So no one's really taking a big position. But based

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on my ratings there was both are off actually, and

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I released a five percent for Friday, and I just

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I'm starting to really like this. Thursday came as well.

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I just haven't figured out what the rating is. So

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if you're if your power ratings are different, you fire

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right away. And we saw that at least the big

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betting syndicates that are moving the market, they didn't do that.

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So now it's just a matter of are they going

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to do it late, Like is a player going to

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be not playing that they thought was playing, so take

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advantage of that information, or like I said, if the

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public knocks the number out of whack or the weather

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affects the total. But I think they're both in uh

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oh no in Dome, so I don't know if it's

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going to affect the weather at all.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean this time of year, these are just

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such public known games. You got college role players like yeah,

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Like it's pretty hard to find an edge in these games,

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like opening line, isn't It's not like you know when

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you have a week eighteen game where the book put

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out puts out a line and all of a sudden,

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the quarterbacks ruled out, Like like, where's the where's the

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edge on these opening lines?

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Speaker 6: That's we talked about it on the show throughout the week.

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This is a perfect example of a tough market. If

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the line's not moving, then it means it's pretty efficient.

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Speaker 5: Like you're going to see an inefficient market, and that

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what reflects that is a line moving significantly. That means

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it's trying to find where it should be, you know

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what I mean. But when in this late in the

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NFL bro you're rarely going to see that kind of

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move unless they're such a narrative. That's when we'll see it.

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Like Billy Walters talked about where he bet you know,

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seven figures on a Super Bowl because the opening number

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was so off from what he had it he thought

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the Dogs should be favored. Actually, but it was the

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narrative that year that the team, the AFC team was

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so much better than that Saints team, you know, And

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that'll be the case, Like if one of these teams

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that shouldn't be here start doing well, I think, then

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that'll happen like if a Carolina beats the Rams type situation,

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and then you know what I mean that something off

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has to happen, or a narrative has or the Rams

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have to be so dominant win by like forty to

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where it looks like they're just been a coast to

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the super Bowl now, and then the line will be off.

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You'll be paying too high a premium and they'll get involved.

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Otherwise they'll sit it out and look for props.

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Speaker 1: Like you do nice. Yeah, yeah, oh yeah, we got

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a lot of prop We got a lot of props

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to go. We'll go over a lot of props in

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the NBA. Do we have any steam for college basketball?

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NBA will which all signs for you?

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Speaker 5: Eight seven two Cornell minus one and a half, eight

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seven to four, Ohio State plus one two minus one,

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eight seven six Charleston plus two to minus one, eight

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a four Brown Laid minus one, fifteen Get plus ten

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and then eight a five Oregon minus five, NBA real quick,

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Nicks minus one and a half and two Celtics minus

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the ten, Sixers minus to ten and eleven and the

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Warriors minus one. So there's some hoops for you. And

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again we had that college football game later today. I

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don't really have much my opinion right now. If it

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was going off in ten minutes, my money would be

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on Montana State and the under. But I haven't fired

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on it anything, to be honest with you. That's just

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based on those FCS power ratings, but they're not really

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I haven't used them throughout the season. I just asked,

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give me a number on it, and he Didne made

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Montana State a two touchdown favor and he made the

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total fifty three. So just based on his number, I

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like the favorite and under.

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Speaker 1: All right, what do you have up for everyone on

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this Monday? All right?

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Speaker 5: I have my five percent up for Friday. The Thursday

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package will be up later today. Is well, just deciding

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on how big a bet we will make it, and

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if I'm able to confirm anything today, I'll put up

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the package as well. Otherwise, got the long term team

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up with me for twenty twenty six, looking forward to

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these playoffs. We did really good in the regular season,

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and I don't think the playoffs are gonna be any different.

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So best of luck to everyone ahead and do some

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damage this week.

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Speaker 1: Nice, Nice, Let's let's have a big twenty twenty six. Yeah,

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oh yeah, let's do this, man.

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Speaker 3: We need it.

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Speaker 1: We need a good year ahead of us. So thank

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you very much Jeannie for joining us on this Monday. Dan,

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We're gonna do some recap of NFL. We'll go where

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the book actually pretty decent, like where the books won,

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and where the public one, like we had some pretty

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notable week.

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Speaker 2: It was a crazy week of just trying to figure

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out who's in, who's out, you know what I mean, Like,

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it was a tough week to back, so I'm not

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surprised that there's a pretty lopsided where books one where

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public one, you know what I mean?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, absolutely absolutely. I also got a pretty funny

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troll comment that I would like to read at some point.

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But we'll do NFL. We'll do NFL questions right here

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real quick.

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Speaker 3: Though.

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Speaker 1: I do have a four percent best bet in the NBA.

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We'll tell you about that a little bit later, because Dan,

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we got some big, big things for twenty twenty six.

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We're doing some things a little bit different, So we'll

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tell everyone about that here at the end of the show,

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and we'll expand upon it tomorrow. So let's go to

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these questions here. So again, questions that I posed to you.

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Who got luck here? The Panthers are the Steelers.

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Speaker 2: Forty four yard field goal from a guy who's been

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absolutely ripping him.

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Speaker 4: I know he was a rookie. Maybe because boss Well missed.

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Speaker 2: You know, it starts running through your mind when you're

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a young player like this, I.

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Speaker 4: Just can't screw it up. I can't screw it up.

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You have to feel like the Steelers got pretty lucky.

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Speaker 2: I mean, after that Isaiah likely catch, it seemed like

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I mean there were accounts that were tweeting out signed, sealed, delivered,

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game is iced, and then those old magnets on the goalposts.

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Speaker 4: I saw some comments about that.

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Speaker 2: People were saying, the uh the deciding factor for the

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for the missed field goals back to back there, Andy,

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of course, tongue in cheek.

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Speaker 1: Well, you Rogers threw a pass that was so bad

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like the Ravens defenders ran into each other and knocking

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themselves out of the game. Like, but I am going with.

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Speaker 2: The big brain stuff though, by Rogers throw a pass

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so bad that you injure two players, I mean, that's

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that's Hall of Fame worthy stuff, Andy.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Rogers had had that run in the I

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think it was the first half where he had a

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run for a first down and instead of running for it.

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Speaker 4: And he pulled up.

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Speaker 3: So fu that.

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Speaker 1: Night, I'm going with Panthers. How do you have a

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must win, you lose the must win, and you still advance.

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I mean that was basically.

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Speaker 4: Good teams win, great teams cover.

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Speaker 2: They covered the game, so the betting gods said, we

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have to make sure that the Falcons win this next game.

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Speaker 1: Out unbelievable, all right, Worst New York performance the Jets

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having no interceptions for the season. I don't know if

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you saw this. Somebody on somebody on Twitter calculated this out.

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If you would have bet one hundred dollars on game

417
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one for the opposing quarterback to not have an interception

418
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and then just rolled it over and bet it every week,

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you'd have like six million dollars. So the Jets andy

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or the Giants winning two meaningless games at the end

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of the season to fall to number five. Worst New

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York Jets performance.

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, dude, the Giants they do this every year,

424
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I believe. I don't have the exact numbers, but it's

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something like the record being like eight and thirty something

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for these New York Giants team games.

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Speaker 4: Four of those wins came in week seventeen or eighteen,

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when they were already eliminated and were only playing to

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up their draft stock.

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Speaker 2: So nothing new here for the Giants. So going an

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entire season without one pick. And did you see in

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the game yesterday there was one that hit the defender

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directly in the hands and he was just exasperated, Like,

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I feel like they had to be in on the bit, Andy.

435
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I mean, it hit him directly in the hands. It

436
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was a lob ball, and he still drops it, not

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having an interception for the first time since it's been

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recorded for an entirety of a season.

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Speaker 4: That's got to be the worst performance we know the

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Giants do this.

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Speaker 1: Agreed, Agreed, completely, agree completely that it's at especially when

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you go higher a defensive coach.

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Speaker 2: Like yeah, well, and for the Giants coach the Giants

444
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towards the end of the year, you know they're playing

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for their interim head coach, potentially auditioning for a new

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coaching job, especially with all these new openings. And I'm

447
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sure you know the story with John Mara and him

448
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battling through through his cancer diagnosis. So there was something

449
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that the Giants said, Hey, we already have our quarter

450
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we have a running back, we have our edge rushers.

451
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Speaker 4: Sure we need some offensive line help to shore up.

452
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Speaker 2: A little bit in the front, but we have a

453
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great wide receiver who's going to be coming back. There

454
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was a point where the Giants just said, let's just

455
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ball out this year because we don't need the draft stock.

456
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I mean every team does, obviously, Andy, but there was

457
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clear decision in that organization and in that locker room

458
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to say, let's just roll out the rest of the

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year and and have some building blocks for next year.

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Speaker 1: Joey says, a former defensive back head coach.

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Speaker 4: Nice, well done.

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Speaker 1: It's really it's that that is well done, all right.

463
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Best slash worst QB situation coming out of twenty twenty

464
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five going into twenty twenty six. You have the Dolphins

465
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who've got Tua and let's just say, Quinny Ewers did

466
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:50,039
not put a lot of faith that they have their

467
00:22:50,079 --> 00:22:54,079
future quarterback. The Colts, you've got Daniel Jones coming up,

468
00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:57,200
the Achilles Anthony Richardson has done, and then Riley Leonard

469
00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:01,480
looks competent against the Texans team that was actually, yeah,

470
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:08,319
Vikings JJ McCarthy with this hand thing. Uh, didn't look

471
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:11,279
good at a lot of times. What do you do there?

472
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The Browns just perpetually the Browns, what do we do?

473
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Chador who is moving forward? Or the Cardinals who've got

474
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Jacoby Brissett who has really showed his true colors down

475
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the stretch.

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Speaker 4: Uh?

477
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:26,880
Speaker 1: And then you have Kyler Murray. So I'll give you

478
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,920
best and worst. Who's got the worst?

479
00:23:30,519 --> 00:23:31,160
Speaker 3: Here's the thing.

480
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 2: You look at the Colts and you saw how Riley

481
00:23:33,079 --> 00:23:36,240
Leonard played against that solid Texans defense who has made

482
00:23:36,279 --> 00:23:39,640
life hell for quarterbacks. You almost look at the Colts

483
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:42,599
and say, what were you doing bringing Philip Rivers in?

484
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:44,680
Why didn't you just roll a couple of weeks with

485
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:47,559
this young guy? See what he had? A complete misstep

486
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,440
by them. You know, Daniel Jones coming back from injury.

487
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:52,759
How does he look? But he looked pretty damn good

488
00:23:53,519 --> 00:23:57,759
while he was healthy. Dolphins two was not gonna be

489
00:23:57,799 --> 00:24:00,640
there next year, you know what I mean? Major question

490
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:03,359
mark Cardinals. I would be shocked if Kyler Murray takes

491
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,079
another stat for them. So, out of all of these teams,

492
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:09,079
Dolphins will have a different quarterback situation. Cardinals will have

493
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:11,039
a different quarterback situation the other three?

494
00:24:11,759 --> 00:24:13,960
Speaker 4: What do you kind of do? So as far as ranking.

495
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 2: Best or worst, you just kind of throw the Browns

496
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:18,240
in the worst because of the Browns and then you

497
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:21,839
take it agree, you know what I mean? And Stefanski

498
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:23,680
was just fired for what it's worse. So you're gonna

499
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:25,279
have a new look there in Cleveland.

500
00:24:25,799 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 1: I agree, Browns probably have it worse, Probably Colts have

501
00:24:30,079 --> 00:24:30,759
it best.

502
00:24:30,759 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 4: We somewhere's my question.

503
00:24:32,279 --> 00:24:34,839
Speaker 2: We got our Colts guy in here and he's saying,

504
00:24:34,839 --> 00:24:36,839
did you see Riley Leonard? I mean I was watching

505
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,839
the game saying, hell no, did he look worse than

506
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:43,799
a forty five year old Philip Rivers. I don't know

507
00:24:43,799 --> 00:24:46,720
who might be smoking that smoking that block, because he

508
00:24:46,799 --> 00:24:48,839
surely wasn't worse than a forty year old man.

509
00:24:49,079 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 4: And that's that's for sure true.

510
00:24:51,319 --> 00:24:53,319
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to where the books one, where

511
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,880
the public one, and then we'll do the we'll do

512
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:58,319
the betting stats after we yeah, after Bill, we're late,

513
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,559
all right, we're the books one. Texas minus the points.

514
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,039
That was a big win for the books. Chiefs minus

515
00:25:04,039 --> 00:25:07,200
the points, Chiefs money line and minus the points. That

516
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:09,880
was a brutal one and the Bengals minus the points

517
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:13,039
to the Browns where the public one Jacksonville minus points

518
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:16,160
was a huge win. Chargers Denver Unver that was pretty

519
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:19,279
much no sweat, and the Patriots minus appoints. Those were

520
00:25:19,319 --> 00:25:22,400
the big winners for the books and the public. We'll

521
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:25,880
do NFL and NBA stats later, but let's bring in Bill.

522
00:25:26,319 --> 00:25:29,440
We got to hear our NBA prop fix Stoughts on

523
00:25:29,519 --> 00:25:33,359
college football, and of course the patented crack Man rants

524
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:34,640
Bill Happy minday, how are you.

525
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:37,680
Speaker 3: Hey, guys? How you guys doing all right?

526
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:41,640
Speaker 7: And it's not going to be crack Man rants. It's

527
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,359
really gonna be what crack Man's been saying in all season.

528
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:46,960
NFL props is where the money is.

529
00:25:49,319 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 3: To be blunt.

530
00:25:50,039 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 7: I think I swept on wager talk with props last week.

531
00:25:54,079 --> 00:25:54,519
Speaker 4: Let's go.

532
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,960
Speaker 7: My only loss is eight and one in the NFL

533
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:01,240
eight on props that I released all obtainable lines too.

534
00:26:01,279 --> 00:26:03,680
I don't give out bullshit like you can get this

535
00:26:03,799 --> 00:26:06,519
prop at bet three sixty five. No way, I give

536
00:26:06,519 --> 00:26:08,920
you a obtainable line. You can get a DraftKings, Fandel,

537
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:12,759
Caesar's MGM everywhere. So my only loss for the week,

538
00:26:12,759 --> 00:26:16,000
I had Giants under first half, which was a terrible,

539
00:26:16,079 --> 00:26:19,079
terrible loss. I shouldn't really rant about one loss, but

540
00:26:20,279 --> 00:26:21,720
just trying to set up for a field goal and

541
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:27,039
they wound up scorn or freak touchdown. So anyway, props

542
00:26:27,039 --> 00:26:28,640
is where it's at. Guys, I'll just tell you that

543
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:31,160
I've been saying it all season. I said it, I

544
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:33,480
meant it, I'm here to represent it. I'm just telling you,

545
00:26:33,519 --> 00:26:35,960
like I usually don't get a little bit cocky and arrogant,

546
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,759
but I've been saying to everyone on every show, I'm

547
00:26:39,799 --> 00:26:43,920
on get on board for props. I'm going to beat

548
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:45,039
the NFL props.

549
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:45,640
Speaker 3: No, I'm not.

550
00:26:45,599 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 7: Gonna go eaight you know every week But and again

551
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:52,079
this because I use unit sizing, so I'm telling you

552
00:26:52,079 --> 00:26:55,359
about more and props up almost forty one units last week,

553
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:59,359
forty point seven units on wager talk between everything, including

554
00:27:00,039 --> 00:27:03,519
the eight and one in the NFL. So all I

555
00:27:03,559 --> 00:27:05,519
can tell you is, if you have an allergy to.

556
00:27:05,559 --> 00:27:09,440
Speaker 3: Money, don't listen to me. I understand, but if it happens,

557
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:09,920
it happens.

558
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:11,799
Speaker 7: People who have allergies to money, they want to bet

559
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,920
NFL sides, and you want to have some randomness like

560
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:17,359
the Pittsburgh game last night you want.

561
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:17,640
Speaker 3: To have, you know.

562
00:27:17,799 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 7: And by the way, because I live in Vegas, I

563
00:27:21,079 --> 00:27:25,160
actually had that minus one fifty five money line on

564
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:29,680
Baltimore last night, and at game time I usually don't

565
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:31,880
middle things, but at game time, I see I found

566
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:35,359
the five, so I actually took plus five. So that's

567
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,759
like it was like a fourteen thousand dollars win I

568
00:27:38,759 --> 00:27:42,160
should have had instead of losing like juice.

569
00:27:42,599 --> 00:27:44,359
Speaker 3: I lost a lot of juice. Actually I lost.

570
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,559
Speaker 7: About like like like four grand or something. No less

571
00:27:46,559 --> 00:27:49,160
than that, I lost like twenty four hundred I think

572
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,400
it was. But yeah, I mean that kick cost me

573
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:52,039
a lot of money.

574
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 3: Was I upset? I went to bet not even thinking

575
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:54,400
about it.

576
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,440
Speaker 7: I'm numb to that kind of stuff because I know

577
00:27:57,599 --> 00:27:59,680
that how much money I bet on my props, and

578
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:02,039
I know I had a even though even when with

579
00:28:02,079 --> 00:28:05,480
that loss, you know, living in Vegas, I'm saying, you

580
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:10,039
get those middles and scalp opportunities with these square of sportsbooks.

581
00:28:10,039 --> 00:28:13,359
Sometimes there's slow moving sportsbooks, and so that one hurt me,

582
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:14,880
but it didn't matter. I didn't give it to customers.

583
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,359
I'm not giving I don't give too many size to customers.

584
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:20,480
It's more first halfs, which I've actually even though losing

585
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:24,440
the Giant game, I've been successful this year on the

586
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:26,680
props is where it's at. I just keep on saying it.

587
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:28,759
I tell you guys at the end of every show,

588
00:28:29,079 --> 00:28:31,559
get on board for the props. Get on board and

589
00:28:31,759 --> 00:28:34,359
thank you for the ones that did. Thank you, not

590
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,680
even for me, thank you for beating your book maker.

591
00:28:37,839 --> 00:28:40,160
Thank you, thank you, thank you. Isn't it the greatest

592
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:43,839
feeling when they open up their app or their website

593
00:28:43,839 --> 00:28:46,440
and see you went eight to oh on NFL props

594
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:48,200
and they say, wow, what is this guy? And now

595
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:50,920
what happens? I'm hearing already people get thrown out of

596
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:54,240
their local guy. Local guys. Everyone thinks you're a sucker.

597
00:28:54,279 --> 00:28:56,720
Everyone does things and treats you like a sucker, like

598
00:28:56,759 --> 00:28:59,200
you're supposed to lose. And by the way, I'm using

599
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:02,680
the Brick and Mortars sportsbooks too, they just think you're suckers.

600
00:29:02,839 --> 00:29:03,799
Speaker 3: You're supposed to lose.

601
00:29:03,839 --> 00:29:06,359
Speaker 7: Now, places like Westgate, Circa.

602
00:29:06,519 --> 00:29:07,799
Speaker 3: I killed Westgate this week.

603
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:12,039
Speaker 7: I killed Circa on A in general, on other things,

604
00:29:12,039 --> 00:29:15,640
but as far as props go, oh God killed Westgate,

605
00:29:15,759 --> 00:29:18,240
killed some sports books this week they take the bets

606
00:29:18,279 --> 00:29:20,640
for me. But there's other sports books like if you

607
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:24,400
bet them with DraftKings automatically. DraftKings is like, oh, wait

608
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,640
a minute, this guy's betting props. He know, wait a minute,

609
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,119
he has a pulse, he bleeds red. Get rid of him.

610
00:29:30,279 --> 00:29:32,559
Speaker 3: We want suckers and losers only. And I'm sorry.

611
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,079
Speaker 7: I know it's gonna qust Bill Krackenburger in the end,

612
00:29:35,279 --> 00:29:38,039
because there'll be some show along the way that maybe

613
00:29:38,079 --> 00:29:40,680
even a big show that Hey, Crack, we'd like to

614
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:42,519
have you do host this show. We want you to

615
00:29:42,519 --> 00:29:44,640
do this. Oh, but DraftKings they don't want you.

616
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 3: Good. Guess what.

617
00:29:46,279 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 7: I don't need your money. I don't need to do

618
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:50,880
any shows. I'm very good in life. I hate the

619
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:53,680
brag about it. I'm very good in life. I don't

620
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,720
need any sponsors for shows. It's great to have them,

621
00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:59,240
and I'll help you with them. And I love interviewing

622
00:29:59,519 --> 00:30:02,480
the direct the sports books, and I love I'm very

623
00:30:02,519 --> 00:30:03,440
friendly with some of them.

624
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 3: But I'm on a rant today.

625
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:06,799
Speaker 7: Yes, I'm want to rant today about a lot of

626
00:30:06,839 --> 00:30:09,039
different I don't like this last email I just got.

627
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 3: It was actually a DM.

628
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 7: On Twitter that his bookmaker threw him out for he

629
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,319
actually went thirteen and one and his bookmakers threw him out.

630
00:30:18,319 --> 00:30:21,720
I said, hey, his name is Dan. Also, I said, Dan,

631
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,039
what have you done for the season though? Have you

632
00:30:25,039 --> 00:30:27,640
you know? He said, crack. I've killed them on props.

633
00:30:27,799 --> 00:30:31,359
I'm a loser betting NFL sides for the year. I

634
00:30:31,519 --> 00:30:34,799
may have broke even for eighteen weeks and the bookmaker

635
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:35,799
threw him out this week.

636
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 4: I mean, just because he went on it's brutal. And

637
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:41,079
that's that's why.

638
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:43,599
Speaker 2: You know, one thing that that Bill says and there

639
00:30:43,599 --> 00:30:47,160
it really is, you know, us versus the bookmakers. Obviously

640
00:30:47,319 --> 00:30:49,799
we have great relationships with some of them. They're great guys,

641
00:30:49,839 --> 00:30:51,279
but at the end of the day, we want to

642
00:30:51,319 --> 00:30:53,680
beat them at their own game. That's for damn sure.

643
00:30:53,759 --> 00:30:55,400
And I love it Bill if you go on here

644
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:57,279
like it's not really going to be crack rants and

645
00:30:57,279 --> 00:30:59,759
then you're like, actually, hold my beer, I got a

646
00:30:59,759 --> 00:31:04,119
little something for you, brother. But also the I said it,

647
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,839
I meant it. Now I'm gonna represent it. I'm definitely

648
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,039
using that. That's that's a hell of a line.

649
00:31:09,599 --> 00:31:09,839
Speaker 3: Crack.

650
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:12,119
Speaker 2: Before we get into an NBA prop that you have

651
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:13,559
for the folks. I do just want to get your

652
00:31:13,599 --> 00:31:15,960
thoughts here. We got Steve Merrill coming up. He's got

653
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,680
some NBA bets and some college basketball bets coming your

654
00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:21,079
way as well. So the picks are coming, folks, But

655
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:24,000
just early thoughts here. Wild Card weekend. Do you fire

656
00:31:24,079 --> 00:31:26,680
on openers? Were there any openers that stood out to you?

657
00:31:26,839 --> 00:31:31,720
And does the focus on props continue? Does it drop

658
00:31:31,799 --> 00:31:33,920
down a little bit come playoff time or is it

659
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:36,640
just full steam ahead now that there's fewer games and

660
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:39,559
it's something that's more focused on heading into the heading

661
00:31:39,599 --> 00:31:40,759
into the playoffs.

662
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 3: I'm logging in. I'm logging in.

663
00:31:42,759 --> 00:31:47,079
Speaker 7: I made one bet, and I'm just trying to think

664
00:31:47,119 --> 00:31:49,319
of the detail. I don't want the public to bet

665
00:31:49,799 --> 00:31:54,759
on these things just because this is a strictly on

666
00:31:54,799 --> 00:31:56,839
the line. I just bet that, just now, I just

667
00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:59,799
bet that at south Point, I bet that that's the

668
00:32:00,839 --> 00:32:05,839
three layan three minus a dollar ten. I just bet that.

669
00:32:06,039 --> 00:32:08,119
I thought the three is a good line. There's three

670
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:10,519
and a half is popping up there. It's more of

671
00:32:10,559 --> 00:32:15,200
an anti Steelers play. It's more anti Steelers play, and

672
00:32:15,599 --> 00:32:18,559
to be real, Blunt one of the sharpest sports books

673
00:32:18,599 --> 00:32:24,680
in the world has Green Bay Packers minus one minus fifteen.

674
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:26,319
Speaker 4: Yeah, I saw that.

675
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:30,119
Speaker 2: Logic's I mean, that's basically split line because you know

676
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,119
you have them as one, one and a half at

677
00:32:32,119 --> 00:32:34,720
one spot last night, and now we're seeing pick thems,

678
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:37,240
we're seeing Chicago one. I mean that's a coin a

679
00:32:37,319 --> 00:32:39,960
divisional playoff game where they split in the season bill,

680
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:41,160
that's it's a coin flip game.

681
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 7: There's the line right there circa as you see has

682
00:32:45,279 --> 00:32:48,839
pick them. Right next to that is Chris Sports Sports

683
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:52,720
four one one is minus one minus a dollar fourteen.

684
00:32:53,359 --> 00:32:58,519
And I gotta tell you, I am real tempted as

685
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:00,480
it's an anti Chicago play.

686
00:33:00,839 --> 00:33:01,119
Speaker 3: Just like.

687
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's an anti Chicago play. I really don't bet

688
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:09,920
a lot of money on the NFL sides, like NFL props.

689
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:14,440
I'll bet whatever I can get I would. I mean, uh,

690
00:33:15,119 --> 00:33:17,200
thank god, some of these books here in town take

691
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:20,680
two thousand and one thousand bet MGM has been taking

692
00:33:21,079 --> 00:33:23,319
a couple thousand from me. I'll bet as much as

693
00:33:23,319 --> 00:33:26,799
I can on NFL props, but sides, I really don't

694
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:30,319
usually don't bet that much, but I am going to

695
00:33:30,359 --> 00:33:34,119
be betting uh anti plays on I'm going against Chicago

696
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:36,400
and going against Pittsburgh.

697
00:33:36,519 --> 00:33:40,319
Speaker 2: I do like Patriots too. I mean I almost put

698
00:33:40,359 --> 00:33:42,519
Patriots in that same milk. They got one win against

699
00:33:42,519 --> 00:33:44,359
the winning team last year. Do you do you kind

700
00:33:44,359 --> 00:33:46,440
of put Patriots in that same category.

701
00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 4: They're three and a half point favorites.

702
00:33:48,519 --> 00:33:51,519
Speaker 2: Uh, going up against the Chargers at home this weekend,

703
00:33:51,799 --> 00:33:54,480
and sure Chargers are nothing to sneeze at. But when

704
00:33:54,519 --> 00:33:57,039
you talk about strength to schedule and how much it

705
00:33:57,119 --> 00:34:00,240
matters heading into come playoff time, you know, I what

706
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:02,480
the Patriots kind of in that same ilk is how

707
00:34:02,519 --> 00:34:04,319
I view the Steelers, how I view the Bears.

708
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:08,800
Speaker 7: Looking at the four that I see at South Point.

709
00:34:09,119 --> 00:34:11,880
Oh there's a four? Yeah, south points four. I'm listening

710
00:34:12,039 --> 00:34:16,639
right now my Odds logic screen. Uh, it's that's pretty tempting.

711
00:34:16,679 --> 00:34:19,079
You're right, it's pretty tempting. But I did not bet

712
00:34:19,119 --> 00:34:21,840
the game. It's three and a half everywhere, didn't bet

713
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:25,079
it if yet if it was three. This is how

714
00:34:25,159 --> 00:34:28,320
the margins are so close. If that game was three,

715
00:34:30,119 --> 00:34:32,679
I probably lean to the Patriots. But what the four,

716
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:36,760
I would lean to the dog probably, but I'm not

717
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:38,920
betting it, so I'm not I'm telling you the games

718
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:42,519
that I bet. I bet Houston. I don't like the

719
00:34:42,639 --> 00:34:47,920
road so much so in games, but I bet Houston. Well,

720
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:49,119
i'd tell you I didn't want to come on here

721
00:34:49,119 --> 00:34:51,519
and give sides. Listen, this is Peter.

722
00:34:51,679 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 4: I got you. I just had to get your thoughts.

723
00:34:53,599 --> 00:34:55,400
Speaker 2: I'm not I'm not putting you in a box here, crack,

724
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:56,920
but I just wanted to get your thoughts. I know

725
00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:59,239
you do want to get people an NBA prop, so

726
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:01,119
we can we that's the specialty here.

727
00:35:01,119 --> 00:35:01,320
Speaker 3: Bill.

728
00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:03,480
Speaker 2: You just went eight and er with your NFL props.

729
00:35:03,559 --> 00:35:06,039
Hell of a weekend. What's the free play on the

730
00:35:06,119 --> 00:35:07,320
hardwood for the folks tonight.

731
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:09,599
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's been, it's been. It's been good. Like I

732
00:35:09,599 --> 00:35:12,840
said last week, forty one unit. That's between everything. Though

733
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:18,159
I actually won on like everything last week. So let

734
00:35:18,199 --> 00:35:20,119
me make sure the line is right because I did

735
00:35:20,119 --> 00:35:20,920
this an hour ago.

736
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 3: Okay, ma MAXI.

737
00:35:23,639 --> 00:35:27,679
Speaker 7: Yeah, MAXI from the seventy six ers over God. Sounds

738
00:35:27,679 --> 00:35:29,239
like a lot, but I know this is this is

739
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:31,480
what the numbers show though. Over thirty five and a

740
00:35:31,519 --> 00:35:36,320
half points and assists. He's gonna he's gonna have Embiid

741
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:42,119
with him tonight. So Denver shouldn't double team Nuggets are

742
00:35:42,119 --> 00:35:45,440
bottom five in the NBA too, allowing points assist against

743
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:48,039
point guards. Maxie should have a big night tonight and

744
00:35:48,199 --> 00:35:52,440
thirty five and a half minus fifteen, and I'm looking

745
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:57,559
at over thirty six and a half plusle five. Okay, good, there,

746
00:35:57,559 --> 00:36:00,280
there's so there's a couple. There's a couple places there.

747
00:36:00,519 --> 00:36:02,920
You guys can bet these things.

748
00:36:03,119 --> 00:36:06,840
Speaker 3: You know. It's funny. I never was an over guy.

749
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:08,840
Speaker 7: I was always an under guy, like seventy percent of

750
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:12,840
my bets, but I've adjusted more. Prior line was probably

751
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:15,559
like seventy five eighty percent over. I'm probably more like

752
00:36:15,599 --> 00:36:20,079
sixty percent I'm sorry, seventy five eighty percent unders. I

753
00:36:20,119 --> 00:36:24,239
am more like probably not fifty to fifty, but I'm

754
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:28,199
still like sixty percent unders. But overs I have adjusted

755
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:30,639
to in general. And like I said, part of the

756
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:33,840
eight and oh was was some overs, including like Austin

757
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:36,800
last night in the NFL Austin and Pittsburgh, like I

758
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:39,960
had over as receiving yards. So I will bet overs

759
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:43,840
on certain things. But here's a little hints. There will

760
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:47,760
never be a time I had one time I had

761
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:51,239
Rogers over this year quarterback. I don't think I'll ever

762
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:54,079
bet a quarterback over again. I'm an under on quarterback

763
00:36:54,079 --> 00:36:56,320
because I'm an under. You know, people love to see

764
00:36:56,360 --> 00:37:01,239
these big quarterbacks like Stafford. Think about this big game yesterday,

765
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:04,559
played the entire game, which I didn't expect. I had

766
00:37:04,639 --> 00:37:08,639
under Stafford yards. It still went under. It still went under,

767
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:11,360
even though he had a big offensive game, and uh,

768
00:37:11,519 --> 00:37:12,559
you know they.

769
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:12,880
Speaker 3: Won the game.

770
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:15,599
Speaker 7: I think they they scored like thirty seven points. I

771
00:37:15,639 --> 00:37:18,719
think they scored scored a ton of points and still

772
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:23,480
went under. That's exactly why these numbers are so overinflated

773
00:37:23,519 --> 00:37:27,199
on more key players like a Stafford, like maybe a

774
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,800
key running back or a key wide receiver, but mostly

775
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:32,840
the quarterbacks because they're in the spotlight. I'll have unders

776
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:35,199
on most of those quarterbacks. It's funny. The one time

777
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:39,599
I had over this year on Rogers, he didn't. He

778
00:37:39,639 --> 00:37:40,239
didn't get there.

779
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:43,159
Speaker 2: So yeah, no, it seems like he only gets there

780
00:37:43,159 --> 00:37:45,719
when he's playing that Ravens defense. Is when when he

781
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,119
finally is able to light it up. I will say

782
00:37:48,119 --> 00:37:50,920
on the maxi prop and that's over points and assists.

783
00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:54,480
You you said, points and assists is what we're going over. Yeah, lasses,

784
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:56,880
last time that he faced off against the Nuggets. It

785
00:37:56,960 --> 00:38:00,480
was a forty two point night twenty nine. Going over

786
00:38:00,519 --> 00:38:02,639
this with some regularity to the team that he matches

787
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:05,119
up well against. I'm a Sixers guy, so you know

788
00:38:05,159 --> 00:38:07,880
I'm gonna be tailing that one bill before we send

789
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:09,519
you on your way. Brother, What do you got rocking

790
00:38:09,559 --> 00:38:11,800
and rolling? I'm sure you already got some stuff locked

791
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:13,800
and ready to go as we as we head of

792
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:15,800
the week, it is a big time betting week.

793
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:17,039
Speaker 3: It's real simple.

794
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:20,159
Speaker 7: Even though the playoffs are here and everyone wants to bet,

795
00:38:20,199 --> 00:38:22,960
they get excited. Oh my god, I look forward to betting,

796
00:38:23,039 --> 00:38:26,280
and it's a great week to watch football. But as

797
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:30,880
far as I probably won't have any sides, possibly a

798
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:37,719
first half total we're looking at, or even a maybe

799
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,599
a full game total, but anyway, we're looking at that. However,

800
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:44,880
the props that are obtainable, I can't stress enough. I'm

801
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:47,599
gonna have playoff props. I'm gonna have super Bowl props.

802
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:50,679
Get on board for the next month so you get

803
00:38:50,679 --> 00:38:51,280
the super Bowl.

804
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:54,119
Speaker 3: I'll just tell you that we have to. I can't

805
00:38:54,119 --> 00:38:55,000
stress it enough.

806
00:38:55,039 --> 00:38:57,039
Speaker 7: Every week I go on to say it, thank you

807
00:38:57,079 --> 00:38:59,400
for the people that have listened, thank you for beating

808
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:02,000
your man, I'll just tell you that I absolutely love it.

809
00:39:02,159 --> 00:39:04,760
I enjoy beating bookmakers and.

810
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:08,039
Speaker 3: Having them sweat and shake and throw.

811
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:09,719
Speaker 7: People out so you can beer it back in. They're

812
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:13,239
so effing stupid, you get right back in so it

813
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:15,599
doesn't matter. And by the way, thank you for the

814
00:39:15,639 --> 00:39:19,039
sportsbooks that have thrown me out. Thank you for the bonuses.

815
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:22,119
We really appreciate coming back in and getting brand new bonuses.

816
00:39:22,159 --> 00:39:24,280
Speaker 3: Again, thank you, thank you very much.

817
00:39:25,679 --> 00:39:26,079
Speaker 4: Thank you.

818
00:39:26,159 --> 00:39:27,840
Speaker 2: Indeed, and I know we had a lot of people

819
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:30,400
in the chat asking about the FCS Championship. Bill has

820
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:34,400
a play up right now five percenter on the FCS Championship.

821
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:38,199
You can grab over his page WT Dot buzz backslash Crack.

822
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:40,840
Bill always a pleasure man. Best of luck on that play,

823
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:42,440
Best of luck this week. We'll see you next Monday,

824
00:39:42,519 --> 00:39:45,519
mat And yeah, you can grab that play Andy thirty

825
00:39:45,519 --> 00:39:47,840
five dollars or you get the all access you know

826
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:51,159
as a prop better. All access is great simply because

827
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:54,039
these lines are volatile. These lines do move, so these

828
00:39:54,039 --> 00:39:57,440
all access clients they get the notification to their inbox

829
00:39:57,480 --> 00:40:00,440
from the email that second the play goes up and betting,

830
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:02,199
I would argue that's even more important than when you're

831
00:40:02,239 --> 00:40:03,320
betting sides and totals.

832
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:08,079
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, absolutely, man. You know I'm a props guy.

833
00:40:08,199 --> 00:40:10,639
We'll talk about some props. But let's let's bring in

834
00:40:10,679 --> 00:40:14,760
Steve Merrill. He's been patiently waiting. Steve, thank you very

835
00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:19,119
much for patiently waiting. We had a lot of information

836
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:21,320
to get through. How was your weekend, so.

837
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:25,360
Speaker 8: We always it went well. Eleven and four start to

838
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:29,440
the new year in basketball and football, seventy since start. Yeah,

839
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:31,760
you know, it's funny, guys, I as Dan knows, I

840
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:33,360
told everybody in the videos because we had some great

841
00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:35,079
promo codes the last week of December. I was like,

842
00:40:35,119 --> 00:40:38,159
don't wait until January first to make that new Year's resolution. Well,

843
00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:40,320
I guess people should have waited the jail. Oh that's

844
00:40:40,320 --> 00:40:42,360
actually not true. We won the last week of December,

845
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:44,559
so it was good to get in the week before

846
00:40:44,559 --> 00:40:46,239
because you're still on board now. But yeah, it's been

847
00:40:46,239 --> 00:40:48,360
a great start to the new year, and we'll look

848
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:50,519
to keep it rolling tonight. I've got one NBA Best

849
00:40:50,559 --> 00:40:54,079
bet tonight and also a free college basketball play on

850
00:40:54,119 --> 00:40:56,039
my page. We're not talking about either one of them here.

851
00:40:56,039 --> 00:40:58,800
I'm gonna give you three more games free. But yet

852
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:00,639
another reason to go to my age every day at

853
00:41:00,639 --> 00:41:03,039
wager talk dot com and don't forget the best bets

854
00:41:03,039 --> 00:41:05,840
are recapped. You can see those last twenty plays. You

855
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:08,800
can click on them, read the analysis afterwards and to

856
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:11,159
get the thought process. And as Dan loves to do,

857
00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:12,079
learn what you earn.

858
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:13,880
Speaker 3: You could talk TV.

859
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:16,159
Speaker 4: Together, earn and earn and win together.

860
00:41:16,559 --> 00:41:18,039
Speaker 8: Well, what's funny, Dan is you can learn and earn

861
00:41:18,039 --> 00:41:19,880
to win together at wager talk dot com because you

862
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:23,559
can see everybody's best bets and recaps afterwards. Yeah, I

863
00:41:23,559 --> 00:41:25,360
do highly recommend doing that. By the way, it's like

864
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:27,960
a free course in sports betting, right. You know, everyone's like,

865
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:29,440
I don't have enough of a bank roll. I'm not

866
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:32,119
a big enough better to buy the best bet service.

867
00:41:32,159 --> 00:41:33,960
I love the free play Steve and the videos and

868
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:35,239
that's why I do them, and that's why we put

869
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:37,760
them on the page. But as you're building your bank roll,

870
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:40,280
you can educate yourself also, go to Andy's page, go

871
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:42,719
to my page, go to crack Man's page, click on

872
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:45,480
the analysis afterwards. I mean, it's really a great resource

873
00:41:45,519 --> 00:41:46,039
for free.

874
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:49,360
Speaker 1: Appreciate that. Yeah, if you go to my page, We'll

875
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:52,639
show you how to take two soccer plays and parley

876
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:58,480
him with the NFL money line for a who's this team,

877
00:41:58,599 --> 00:41:59,639
Who's this team?

878
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:02,119
Speaker 8: And all the games and he's using to find out

879
00:42:02,119 --> 00:42:03,760
what countries are located.

880
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 1: In and you can try and figure out who under

881
00:42:08,519 --> 00:42:11,079
average on darts in the World Championships. Yeah, a lot

882
00:42:11,079 --> 00:42:14,079
of fun. All right here, let's go over some teams

883
00:42:14,119 --> 00:42:16,000
we do know about. We've got a double header in

884
00:42:16,039 --> 00:42:19,519
the NBA tonight. We got Nuggets, Sixers, Warriors and Clippers.

885
00:42:19,519 --> 00:42:22,840
We got this Nuggets Sixers. I mean, the Nuggets are

886
00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:25,679
just trying to tread water here with the amount of injuries.

887
00:42:25,679 --> 00:42:27,920
They did get Aaron Gordon and Christian Brown back, so

888
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:30,679
that's gonna help get the Sixers team that may are

889
00:42:30,679 --> 00:42:33,960
They just riding the hottest Tyrese Maxi right now. He's

890
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:37,000
playing incredible ball. So I'll let you start with the

891
00:42:37,079 --> 00:42:39,119
Nuggets and Sixers. I'm not going to interrupt you. We'll

892
00:42:39,159 --> 00:42:41,599
just go right into Warriors and Clippers on this NBC

893
00:42:41,719 --> 00:42:43,039
Peacock double header.

894
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:47,559
Speaker 8: Two national TV games in the NBA to not on Monday,

895
00:42:47,639 --> 00:42:50,239
January the fifth, both on the Peacock Network. If you

896
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:52,360
know where to locate that it's a spinoff of NBC.

897
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:54,960
But yeah, we got Amazon Prime games, we got Peacock,

898
00:42:55,239 --> 00:42:57,239
a lot of National TV NBA games for the next

899
00:42:57,239 --> 00:42:59,440
few months, and this is your double header. We'll start

900
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:03,039
with the first game at eight thirty Eastern tonight, Denver

901
00:43:03,119 --> 00:43:06,960
Philadelphia and Boys at the Big Number Open Philly nine.

902
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:09,599
It's now up to twelve some eleven and a halfs,

903
00:43:09,639 --> 00:43:11,760
twelves and a halfs. We'll just say twelve right now.

904
00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:14,360
If you look at the overall stats this season, it's

905
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:16,920
a huge overreaction. Denver's been the better team this year,

906
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:19,559
but obviously it's not the same Nuggets team as of

907
00:43:19,599 --> 00:43:22,760
the last week of December. When Yokics got injured against

908
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:25,800
Miami back on December twenty ninth, they've now played three

909
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:28,920
and a half games basically without him. It has not

910
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:31,159
been pretty overall. They lost that Miami game.

911
00:43:31,039 --> 00:43:31,400
Speaker 3: Of course.

912
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:33,320
Speaker 8: In fact, they're just if you include that Miami game,

913
00:43:33,360 --> 00:43:36,400
they're just one and three straight up. One at Toronto, though,

914
00:43:36,440 --> 00:43:38,239
is a seven point dog the next game without them.

915
00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:40,840
We always see that bounce back when the superstar is out,

916
00:43:41,159 --> 00:43:44,639
and they've dropped back to back game since. However, this

917
00:43:44,679 --> 00:43:46,679
is still a Nuggets team that I think is pretty

918
00:43:46,679 --> 00:43:49,920
good offensively and maybe a little suspect on defense. And

919
00:43:49,920 --> 00:43:51,519
the reason I say that the last two games they've

920
00:43:51,559 --> 00:43:54,199
given up over fifty percent shooting. In fact, if you

921
00:43:54,199 --> 00:43:55,920
go back, even when Yo Kids was in the lineup,

922
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:58,800
still they've given up over fifty percent shooting now in

923
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:01,519
for their last five game and they've given up forty

924
00:44:01,559 --> 00:44:03,639
nine percent or worse, and six of their last seven

925
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:05,679
even with Jokics the big man in the middle, they

926
00:44:05,679 --> 00:44:07,679
were not playing great defense. I don't think that's gotten

927
00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:10,679
any better. But what did improve in that Brooklyn loss

928
00:44:11,559 --> 00:44:14,039
yesterday on Sunday is that the offense got better. They

929
00:44:14,039 --> 00:44:16,239
shot forty eight percent from the field after shooting just

930
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:19,079
forty two and a half the first two games without Jokiic.

931
00:44:19,599 --> 00:44:22,159
I think we can ride maybe that offensive improvement tonight.

932
00:44:22,559 --> 00:44:24,840
I would lean towards the Nuggets plus twelve twelve and

933
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:27,119
a half. I think this is a vast overreaction, as

934
00:44:27,119 --> 00:44:29,480
they are starting to get a little healthier elsewhere, but

935
00:44:29,559 --> 00:44:31,920
I like the over better over to twenty nine and

936
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:34,280
this one. Keep an eye on the injury report, though

937
00:44:34,639 --> 00:44:36,920
these lines have been moving around all day, hopping up

938
00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:40,199
and beat as listed as probable. Denver might have some

939
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:45,039
other guys in er out playground mentality, tire, teams, defense

940
00:44:45,159 --> 00:44:47,639
very questionable with Denver. I like the up and over

941
00:44:47,679 --> 00:44:49,599
two twenty nine, and I would lean towards the Nuggets

942
00:44:49,599 --> 00:44:51,400
plus twelve twelve and a half. I just think this

943
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:53,639
looks like a little bit of an overreaction at eight

944
00:44:53,639 --> 00:44:56,159
to forty Eastern. All right, your late night game on

945
00:44:56,239 --> 00:44:59,639
Peacock on the West Coast, Golden State Clippers, This should

946
00:44:59,639 --> 00:45:01,440
be a good one on Golden State open to one

947
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:03,800
and a half point favorite. Very little movement on Monday

948
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:05,920
so far there's still a one and a half point favorite.

949
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:08,679
A few ones out there. Totals moved a little bit

950
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:10,719
to the over in this one. Open two twenty four

951
00:45:11,599 --> 00:45:14,159
now up to two twenty five and a half in

952
00:45:14,199 --> 00:45:18,800
most locations as of Monday afternoon. Clippers pretty good current form.

953
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:22,280
Didn't look great in their last game blowout loss, but

954
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:24,599
before that they had won six in a row straight

955
00:45:24,639 --> 00:45:26,559
up and against the spread. And the loss I'm talking about,

956
00:45:26,559 --> 00:45:28,880
of course, came on Saturday and when they lost by

957
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:32,000
thirty one as a one point home favorite against the Celtics.

958
00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:34,119
I don't think anything's broken. This is still the team

959
00:45:34,159 --> 00:45:36,480
that's six and one straight up in ATS or last seven,

960
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:39,480
playing pretty good defense overall. In fact, the one bad

961
00:45:39,519 --> 00:45:42,480
defensive outing, not surprisingly was that Celtics game. But whenever

962
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:45,079
you get a team that's in good current form nothing

963
00:45:45,159 --> 00:45:47,480
necessarily wrong with them, and they have a terrible defensive

964
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:49,519
out and they remain at home day off to practice

965
00:45:49,519 --> 00:45:52,320
and regroup, I usually look for a better showing. So

966
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:54,280
I do think the Clippers are the preferred side as

967
00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:57,760
the plus one home dog tonight, and Golden State decent

968
00:45:57,800 --> 00:46:00,519
record over the last couple of weeks six two straight up,

969
00:46:01,000 --> 00:46:02,760
but if you look at their spread record, they're just

970
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:05,519
one in four against the spread the last five, which

971
00:46:05,559 --> 00:46:07,880
tells you they're an overrated team right now the betting

972
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:10,559
public and the odds makers. At least their numbers are

973
00:46:10,559 --> 00:46:12,480
a little too high. They're winning, but they're not covering,

974
00:46:12,519 --> 00:46:14,760
and I think that's the case here again tonight, as

975
00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:16,480
they don't deserve to be a one point favorite. I

976
00:46:16,519 --> 00:46:18,280
think the Clippers win this game, and they're a live

977
00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:20,719
dog at plus one. And it's also not that it's

978
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:22,519
a huge deal, but it is a revenge game from

979
00:46:22,599 --> 00:46:24,639
late October back in like the fourth fifth game of

980
00:46:24,679 --> 00:46:29,119
the season, Clippers lost by nineteen on the road at

981
00:46:29,159 --> 00:46:31,679
Golden State. A little bit of a revenge factor team

982
00:46:31,679 --> 00:46:33,679
in good current form, but most importantly coming off a

983
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:36,639
bad showing defensively. I think the wrong team is favored here.

984
00:46:36,679 --> 00:46:39,280
Clippers plus one a live dog tonight in your late

985
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:41,719
game on Peacock at ten forty Eastern.

986
00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:46,199
Speaker 1: Great breakdowns, Steve Merrill, We're going to go to college

987
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:51,840
basketball Michigan State USC. I'm not a big college basketball fan.

988
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:54,760
I know Michigan has been having a monster year. Talk

989
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:57,559
to us about this Michigan State team in this USC team.

990
00:46:57,599 --> 00:46:59,000
Where are these teams at right now? What do you

991
00:46:59,000 --> 00:46:59,840
expect from the matchup to.

992
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:02,920
Speaker 8: Yeah, maybe per capita of the best basketball in the country.

993
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:04,400
The best basketball in the country's been in the state

994
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:06,920
of Michigan. The Detroit Piston's having a pretty solid season

995
00:47:06,920 --> 00:47:09,920
in the NBA. Michigan Wolverines are definitely the best team

996
00:47:09,960 --> 00:47:12,920
in college basketball based on my ratings, but Michigan State's

997
00:47:12,920 --> 00:47:14,679
pretty good as well. In fact, this is a top

998
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:19,519
twenty five matchup tonight on Monday between USC and Michigan State.

999
00:47:19,599 --> 00:47:22,039
USC coming in twenty fourth last week in the eightp.

1000
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:25,440
I billieve Michigan State's like ninth, USC did fall out

1001
00:47:25,440 --> 00:47:27,719
of the coaches poll last week. They dropped out of

1002
00:47:27,719 --> 00:47:30,280
the top twenty five. And of course they did not

1003
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:33,159
look very good in their most recent game against the

1004
00:47:33,159 --> 00:47:37,039
Michigan Wolverines, a thirty point loss on Friday at Ann Arbor.

1005
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:39,239
But as I said, no shame in losing. The Michigan

1006
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:41,760
Wolverines are the best team in the country, really stout

1007
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:42,480
on both ends.

1008
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:42,800
Speaker 3: Of the court.

1009
00:47:43,320 --> 00:47:45,239
Speaker 8: Tough test here. This is a tough double double for

1010
00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:47,880
a West Coast former Pac twelve squad. Here they're having

1011
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:49,880
a wake up call in the Big ten, going from

1012
00:47:49,920 --> 00:47:52,679
a loss against Michigan to now play Michigan State. By

1013
00:47:52,679 --> 00:47:55,159
the way, this game is on national TV tonight. I

1014
00:47:55,199 --> 00:47:57,719
believe it's Fox Sports one if I'm not mistaken. At

1015
00:47:57,719 --> 00:48:00,880
eight thirty Eastern USC at Michigan's State, we saw Michigan

1016
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:03,559
State open as about a ten point favorite. The money

1017
00:48:03,559 --> 00:48:05,559
has come in slightly on the Spartans. It's now up

1018
00:48:05,599 --> 00:48:08,480
to eleven ten and a half eleven in most locations.

1019
00:48:08,639 --> 00:48:10,280
A little bit of money on the over as well.

1020
00:48:10,320 --> 00:48:12,039
One forty eight and a half has risen to one

1021
00:48:12,039 --> 00:48:13,960
to fifty and a half some one to fifty ones

1022
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:16,800
also starting the show. It's going to be a battle

1023
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:18,559
of tempo in this game. USC is one of the

1024
00:48:18,599 --> 00:48:21,440
fastest full court teams in the country, ranking top forty

1025
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:24,840
in pace in possessions. Michigan State under Izzo always plays

1026
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:28,599
smash mouth half court basketball, always a great rebounding team,

1027
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:31,880
and they like to slow things down. And speaking of rebounding,

1028
00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:35,280
three hundred and sixty five teams in Division one basketball

1029
00:48:35,320 --> 00:48:38,000
this year and Michigan State ranks top ten in both

1030
00:48:38,079 --> 00:48:42,400
offensive and defensive rebound percentage. USC does not rank one

1031
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:44,440
hundred and top one fifty in either one. They're not

1032
00:48:44,480 --> 00:48:46,639
even top two hundred in defensive rebounding. So I do

1033
00:48:46,679 --> 00:48:49,039
think Michigan State's gonna get a lot of second chance points.

1034
00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:52,199
They hold a substantial defensive edge in this game. Now

1035
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:55,039
where USC has the edges, there are slightly more efficient offense,

1036
00:48:55,079 --> 00:48:57,119
and they do play a lot faster, as I mentioned,

1037
00:48:57,880 --> 00:48:59,800
but I think that'll be negated a little bit what

1038
00:49:00,079 --> 00:49:04,039
in a slowdown game. USC also does hit the three

1039
00:49:04,119 --> 00:49:06,719
pretty well, and that's been the weakness for Michigan State.

1040
00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:08,480
They give up a lot of three point shots. They

1041
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:10,719
have a good three point defense, but they give up

1042
00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:13,360
a lot of shots from three. By the way, the

1043
00:49:13,480 --> 00:49:16,800
number one free throw rate team in the country is USC.

1044
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:19,639
Michigan State does not put teams on the free throw

1045
00:49:19,679 --> 00:49:21,400
line much. I don't think USC is going to get

1046
00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:23,480
a lot of second chance points. I don't think they're

1047
00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:25,480
going to be able to play their preferred pace, and

1048
00:49:25,519 --> 00:49:26,679
I don't think they're going to get to the free

1049
00:49:26,719 --> 00:49:29,079
throw line as much as they need to. That's where

1050
00:49:29,079 --> 00:49:31,320
they get the majority of their scoring when they play fast.

1051
00:49:31,719 --> 00:49:33,760
I agree with this money move. I like Michigan State

1052
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:36,079
here minus the ten and a half to eleven. I

1053
00:49:36,079 --> 00:49:38,360
don't think it's a bounce back spot for USC after

1054
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:41,039
the thirty point loss. They were exposed in that Michigan loss,

1055
00:49:41,280 --> 00:49:43,280
and they're once again stepping up in class here and

1056
00:49:43,280 --> 00:49:46,480
playing another team that is better than they are. And oh,

1057
00:49:46,519 --> 00:49:48,960
by the way, let's look at Michigan State in their

1058
00:49:49,039 --> 00:49:52,559
last game. They lost to Nebraska on Friday on the road,

1059
00:49:52,599 --> 00:49:54,519
so that's even more of a bounce back spot for

1060
00:49:54,559 --> 00:49:57,280
the Spartans. As far as I'm concerned, both teams off

1061
00:49:57,320 --> 00:49:59,119
a loss. I'd had the better team at home with

1062
00:49:59,199 --> 00:50:01,559
the matchup edge. If you're gonna play it. I would

1063
00:50:01,639 --> 00:50:03,639
lay the double digits with Michigan State tonight at eight

1064
00:50:03,679 --> 00:50:05,599
thirty eastern on Fox Sports One.

1065
00:50:07,480 --> 00:50:13,519
Speaker 1: Steve Merrill Great Breakdowns. Do you have any cut We

1066
00:50:13,519 --> 00:50:15,559
asked Yanni early, do you have any college basketball teams

1067
00:50:15,559 --> 00:50:18,320
that might be a little bit undervalued, teams that might

1068
00:50:18,440 --> 00:50:21,320
like slow starts maybe look to play on Now that

1069
00:50:21,360 --> 00:50:24,639
we're getting into some serious conference player, what's some teams

1070
00:50:24,679 --> 00:50:26,360
you've been looking at to fade or follow.

1071
00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:27,119
Speaker 3: Well.

1072
00:50:27,119 --> 00:50:28,360
Speaker 8: I got to give a shout out to my Weim

1073
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:30,360
Mary tribe. They have a huge game tonight on a

1074
00:50:30,360 --> 00:50:32,840
CBS Sports network. It was actually moved from Saturday for

1075
00:50:32,960 --> 00:50:36,599
national TV against Charleston. They were eleven and one against

1076
00:50:36,599 --> 00:50:39,519
the spread this year eleven and one against the spread.

1077
00:50:40,960 --> 00:50:42,840
I actually the metrics I look at actually as them

1078
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:44,880
as a better team to not against Charleston. But Charleston's

1079
00:50:44,880 --> 00:50:47,119
a two point home favorite, and I'm very worried about

1080
00:50:47,119 --> 00:50:48,880
this game that I don't have a good feeling about it.

1081
00:50:49,480 --> 00:50:51,920
Charleston's probably the fifth best team efficiency wise in the

1082
00:50:51,960 --> 00:50:54,199
CAA right now, but they've won six straight and they're

1083
00:50:54,199 --> 00:50:57,239
always a tough team to play. So that's actually a sneaky,

1084
00:50:57,280 --> 00:50:59,000
good game to watch the night. Brian Earld's doing an

1085
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:02,199
incredible job in his second season at Women Mary and

1086
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:04,639
Charleston will be a real test tonight. They're only non

1087
00:51:04,679 --> 00:51:06,559
cover this year. By the way, it was at Saint John's.

1088
00:51:06,559 --> 00:51:08,679
They missed by five points in the game, which they

1089
00:51:08,719 --> 00:51:10,360
only trail I think by three at the half. So

1090
00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:12,559
I don't think there's a lot of value left with

1091
00:51:12,599 --> 00:51:14,320
him when you're in eleven to one against the spread.

1092
00:51:15,039 --> 00:51:17,280
But we'll point out about when mayor there's something you

1093
00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:19,440
can track with all the three hundred and sixty five teams,

1094
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:22,079
they've gotten a lot better defensively this year. They currently

1095
00:51:22,079 --> 00:51:24,679
have one of the six best three point defenses in

1096
00:51:24,719 --> 00:51:27,400
the country. Now, there's sometimes random variants with three point

1097
00:51:27,519 --> 00:51:30,599
defense after five six games, but after ten or fifteen

1098
00:51:30,639 --> 00:51:32,840
games there's not as much, so but keep an eye

1099
00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:34,679
on that. Also keeping eye on teams that are really

1100
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:37,280
shooting well from the free throw line. Maybe as a dog,

1101
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:39,639
that's something I like to look at. But I really

1102
00:51:39,639 --> 00:51:41,800
look at matchups for college basketball, and we broke it

1103
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:44,960
down with that Monday night game Michigan State and USC.

1104
00:51:45,159 --> 00:51:47,039
You want to look when teams have a strength versus

1105
00:51:47,079 --> 00:51:50,840
a weakness and advantage. Always talk about tempo fast versus slow,

1106
00:51:51,159 --> 00:51:53,280
but look at matchup edges as well. When three hundred

1107
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:56,920
and sixty five college basketball teams to handicap, pick your

1108
00:51:56,960 --> 00:51:58,760
spots right, Know that you have a real team that's

1109
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:00,159
really good at one thing or not in the You

1110
00:52:00,159 --> 00:52:01,679
have a short list every day and when you get

1111
00:52:01,679 --> 00:52:03,719
that matchup, you dig in, you make sure all the

1112
00:52:03,760 --> 00:52:05,280
players are in there, and you fire away. That's how

1113
00:52:05,280 --> 00:52:07,920
you do a short list. That's how you handicap college basketball.

1114
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:11,239
You cannot analyze three hundred and sixty five teams, two

1115
00:52:11,360 --> 00:52:13,559
hundred games every weekend and do it efficiently. You got

1116
00:52:13,559 --> 00:52:16,159
to have a shortcut. That's one I recommend using.

1117
00:52:17,280 --> 00:52:21,360
Speaker 1: Good stuff Steve, awesome breakdowns, good information of always making us,

1118
00:52:21,519 --> 00:52:23,000
always making us smarter. What do you have about for

1119
00:52:23,039 --> 00:52:23,760
everyone on Monday?

1120
00:52:25,760 --> 00:52:28,039
Speaker 8: So it is a great card for Monday night. Great

1121
00:52:28,039 --> 00:52:30,039
card for Monday night is I have a strong NBA

1122
00:52:30,159 --> 00:52:32,880
best bet on my page right now, Steve Merrillwager Talk

1123
00:52:32,920 --> 00:52:35,679
dot Com eleven and four start in January for twenty

1124
00:52:35,719 --> 00:52:38,360
twenty six and football and basketball best bets. And it's

1125
00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:40,039
not a surprise. We had sixty five percent of the

1126
00:52:40,119 --> 00:52:42,320
NBA and in December, and now we're eleven and four

1127
00:52:42,360 --> 00:52:44,920
all sports in January, so the NBA's has been crushing it.

1128
00:52:45,119 --> 00:52:47,719
Get Tonight's NBA Best Betting, Get the bonus free college

1129
00:52:47,719 --> 00:52:50,360
basketball play. I do have a big matchup in college

1130
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:53,119
hoops free on my page with analysis and then of

1131
00:52:53,119 --> 00:52:55,239
course recap the last twenty best bets. You can see

1132
00:52:55,239 --> 00:52:56,719
that eleven and four start of the year. You can

1133
00:52:56,719 --> 00:53:00,239
see all the plays win or lose, full transparency on

1134
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:02,639
the place to read the analysis, learn and earn at

1135
00:53:02,679 --> 00:53:06,000
wagertalk dot com, Steve merrilwagtertalk dot com and get there quicker,

1136
00:53:06,519 --> 00:53:09,719
wt dot buzz, slash sm and I'm going to record

1137
00:53:09,800 --> 00:53:12,840
semi final videos for both college football playoff games this

1138
00:53:12,920 --> 00:53:15,599
week and also every NFL playoff game. I did it

1139
00:53:15,599 --> 00:53:17,559
for all the Bulls. I'm going to give you the

1140
00:53:17,679 --> 00:53:20,599
NFL playoff game free here on wager Talk TV. So

1141
00:53:20,639 --> 00:53:22,519
make sure you click subscribe. You click the bell for

1142
00:53:22,519 --> 00:53:25,079
instant alerts. We're so close to two hundred and forty

1143
00:53:25,119 --> 00:53:28,679
thousand subscribers. Kelly Stewart is excited. She doesn't get excited

1144
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:30,559
too often, so we got to get to two hundred

1145
00:53:30,599 --> 00:53:32,360
and forty K. So then we can get to two

1146
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:34,000
hundred and fifty K and say we have a quarter

1147
00:53:34,079 --> 00:53:36,719
million subscribers. Make sure you're one of them. Click subscribe,

1148
00:53:36,719 --> 00:53:39,719
click the bell thumbs up, like and positive comments below,

1149
00:53:39,760 --> 00:53:41,840
because we do read the comments here on wager Talk TV.

1150
00:53:43,679 --> 00:53:46,320
Speaker 1: Do you want to see Kelly Stewart get excited?

1151
00:53:46,840 --> 00:53:50,239
Speaker 2: She's very well with a human being, Yeah, but not

1152
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:51,199
animated at all.

1153
00:53:51,440 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 1: You play blackjack and when the person next to her

1154
00:53:53,599 --> 00:53:55,679
hits and bus and takes her card, then you'll see

1155
00:53:55,760 --> 00:53:56,800
Kelly Stewart excited.

1156
00:53:59,239 --> 00:54:02,920
Speaker 8: My college roomate did what he called gonzo blackjack, and

1157
00:54:03,000 --> 00:54:04,760
I never forget. I was in Vegas, like twenty some

1158
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:07,000
years ago and he just did not give an f

1159
00:54:07,559 --> 00:54:11,280
and he was at a table split in twenties double it.

1160
00:54:14,199 --> 00:54:14,639
Speaker 4: Best.

1161
00:54:14,960 --> 00:54:16,920
Speaker 8: He might have been a little inebriated. In fact, he

1162
00:54:17,079 --> 00:54:20,199
was as they say at Animal House. We maybe took

1163
00:54:20,440 --> 00:54:21,840
liberties with our female guests.

1164
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:23,079
Speaker 3: We did, but he.

1165
00:54:23,119 --> 00:54:24,760
Speaker 8: Might have been a little enebrate. But he would turn

1166
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:28,159
and just go gonzo blackjack. I mean, if you ever

1167
00:54:28,159 --> 00:54:29,960
wanted to just throw some money away and have fun

1168
00:54:30,000 --> 00:54:31,239
with it, that was the way to do it. So

1169
00:54:31,679 --> 00:54:35,639
you're taking yeah, yeah, don't sit it third base, right,

1170
00:54:35,679 --> 00:54:37,480
third base is the worst spot to be a bad

1171
00:54:37,679 --> 00:54:41,159
non basic strategy player. First base is not good, but

1172
00:54:41,239 --> 00:54:43,840
third base. But here's the thing. It honestly doesn't bother

1173
00:54:43,960 --> 00:54:46,199
me because and I try to explain this to people,

1174
00:54:46,239 --> 00:54:49,079
it really truly does not, because it'll help you as

1175
00:54:49,119 --> 00:54:50,960
much as it hurts you. Right, we always talk about

1176
00:54:50,960 --> 00:54:52,760
there's a good beat on every side of the bad beat.

1177
00:54:53,000 --> 00:54:55,519
All the Pittsburgh money linebackers were pretty happy within this

1178
00:54:55,599 --> 00:54:57,840
field goal last night, but nobody's talking about that, right,

1179
00:54:57,880 --> 00:55:00,960
So that's a good point. Yeah, So that's one thing

1180
00:55:00,960 --> 00:55:03,679
that's honestly, it's never bothered me. In blackjack if someone

1181
00:55:03,679 --> 00:55:08,239
plays wrong because it don't change the cards. I agree, well,

1182
00:55:08,239 --> 00:55:09,800
it does change the cards, but you never know.

1183
00:55:10,719 --> 00:55:13,760
Speaker 1: You don't know how online, Yeah, know how it's going

1184
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:17,119
to change the cards. All right, Steve, thanks for joining us.

1185
00:55:17,239 --> 00:55:19,280
Thank you very much. Brother. It's for good Monday. Have

1186
00:55:19,320 --> 00:55:23,159
a good Monday. Yeah. So Dan and I will go

1187
00:55:23,239 --> 00:55:26,079
into a little bit more in depth detail how we're

1188
00:55:26,119 --> 00:55:28,239
gonna change things. But we got a four percent best

1189
00:55:28,239 --> 00:55:30,719
bet that is up in NBA. And in the write up,

1190
00:55:30,719 --> 00:55:33,239
I did a full props report as a market Watch

1191
00:55:33,559 --> 00:55:35,719
of all the different props that we really really like.

1192
00:55:36,760 --> 00:55:39,679
So we're changing up how we do things. But for tonight,

1193
00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:42,880
four percent best bet is up. Don't get one play,

1194
00:55:42,920 --> 00:55:44,920
get a package, get a seven day, get a three day.

1195
00:55:44,960 --> 00:55:47,239
We've got a lot of big things coming up. Twenty

1196
00:55:47,280 --> 00:55:49,480
twenty six off to a great start. Love when these

1197
00:55:49,519 --> 00:55:53,320
futures come in, Dan, I I keep I keep telling it.

1198
00:55:53,440 --> 00:55:56,320
Futures is like we talk about props. Futures is just

1199
00:55:56,360 --> 00:55:58,800
the hidden money of you wake up.

1200
00:55:58,679 --> 00:56:00,159
Speaker 2: And you're like, what the hell, Why do I have

1201
00:56:00,159 --> 00:56:02,880
an extra you know, a couple hundred dollars. Oh yeah,

1202
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:05,360
I bet that team three months ago to go under

1203
00:56:05,400 --> 00:56:06,559
their season win total.

1204
00:56:06,639 --> 00:56:08,039
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, it's great.

1205
00:56:07,840 --> 00:56:11,079
Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely absolutely So we have a five percent best

1206
00:56:11,079 --> 00:56:13,840
bet in UFC that is up right now. Really encourage

1207
00:56:13,840 --> 00:56:16,119
you guys to lock that in early uf season. Out

1208
00:56:16,119 --> 00:56:18,320
for a couple of weeks, but get this line in now.

1209
00:56:18,599 --> 00:56:20,519
And then we got NBA four percent best bet. We

1210
00:56:20,559 --> 00:56:22,400
hit our best bet last night. We hit three NBA

1211
00:56:22,480 --> 00:56:25,679
winners in a row, So starting to heat up. Let's

1212
00:56:25,719 --> 00:56:27,239
do some trends here. We got a bunch of we

1213
00:56:27,320 --> 00:56:29,760
got some free plays, we got some trends We've got

1214
00:56:29,800 --> 00:56:32,400
one of my favorite troll comments I've heard in a while.

1215
00:56:32,440 --> 00:56:35,639
But let's do NFL betting trends. Yeah, yeah, let's let's

1216
00:56:35,679 --> 00:56:38,519
do NFL betting regular season.

1217
00:56:39,920 --> 00:56:41,519
Speaker 4: The Cowboys day and hit again.

1218
00:56:43,000 --> 00:56:47,159
Speaker 1: Yes, Brian Power. Brian Power had the onions the plums

1219
00:56:47,440 --> 00:56:51,239
to take this one. Cowboys finished the season going sixteen

1220
00:56:51,320 --> 00:56:55,000
and one on the first half overs, absolutely incredible. As

1221
00:56:55,000 --> 00:56:59,280
we mentioned, the Jets zero interceptions this season. Chiefs ended

1222
00:56:59,320 --> 00:57:02,000
the season one seven ats on the road. Meanwhile the

1223
00:57:02,000 --> 00:57:06,159
Seahawks eight and one ats on the road, and team totals,

1224
00:57:06,199 --> 00:57:08,840
your best team ended up being Jacksonville thirteen and four

1225
00:57:08,880 --> 00:57:11,920
to the over worst team to the over Raiders twelve

1226
00:57:11,960 --> 00:57:15,360
and five. Just trying to figure you got to figure

1227
00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:19,000
these trends and things out as they're happening. The Cowboys

1228
00:57:19,039 --> 00:57:22,400
one is the one we should have after about six

1229
00:57:22,480 --> 00:57:24,320
or seven weeks. We should have seen the riding on

1230
00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:25,559
the wall with that team.

1231
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:26,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's that's.

1232
00:57:26,679 --> 00:57:29,639
Speaker 2: That's absolutely true, and like we said, it was going

1233
00:57:29,679 --> 00:57:32,199
to continue. So if you if you watched when Sandy

1234
00:57:32,239 --> 00:57:34,320
brought this up three or four weeks ago, hey, you

1235
00:57:34,360 --> 00:57:36,480
had three or four winning bets. So that that's why

1236
00:57:36,480 --> 00:57:38,679
we do this, and you know some of these teams

1237
00:57:38,719 --> 00:57:41,800
obviously out you know, uh Seahawks on the road. That's

1238
00:57:41,840 --> 00:57:44,480
not gonna matter anymore because if they do continue to win,

1239
00:57:44,519 --> 00:57:45,239
they're going to be at home.

1240
00:57:45,239 --> 00:57:46,360
Speaker 4: They're the number one seed.

1241
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:50,199
Speaker 2: One that would likely matter is this Jacksonville Jaguars team

1242
00:57:50,199 --> 00:57:52,480
who's facing off against the Bills defense, who's given up

1243
00:57:52,480 --> 00:57:56,440
points to everyone that totals already sky high Andy biggest

1244
00:57:56,440 --> 00:57:58,559
one of the week, and fifty one and a half

1245
00:57:59,000 --> 00:58:01,519
Jacksonville team to total figures to end up a little

1246
00:58:01,519 --> 00:58:03,719
bit higher than twenty five and a half. So that's

1247
00:58:03,760 --> 00:58:06,199
what it's sitting at right now. You could probably shop

1248
00:58:06,199 --> 00:58:07,840
around and even find a twenty four and a half

1249
00:58:07,880 --> 00:58:11,159
out there. Jaguars team total over probably something I'd like

1250
00:58:11,199 --> 00:58:12,840
to bet because I think I think you have a

1251
00:58:12,880 --> 00:58:15,280
barking home dog in that one. Jacksonville has been great

1252
00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:18,239
at home, and the Bills their road favorites just because

1253
00:58:18,280 --> 00:58:20,400
the name on their jersey. What have they shown this

1254
00:58:20,480 --> 00:58:22,039
year that's telling you they should be laying one and

1255
00:58:22,039 --> 00:58:24,440
a half in Jacksonville. I don't think they can stop

1256
00:58:24,480 --> 00:58:26,920
that all. Now with that, I'm gonna I'm gonna use

1257
00:58:26,960 --> 00:58:29,440
that trend and I'm gonna back that Jacksonville Jaguars team

1258
00:58:29,480 --> 00:58:30,000
total over.

1259
00:58:31,079 --> 00:58:33,280
Speaker 1: Let's go to some NBA betting trends. These are ones

1260
00:58:33,320 --> 00:58:35,119
that you can use right now.

1261
00:58:35,280 --> 00:58:38,079
Speaker 2: Smart, so we're we're not looking at it too late

1262
00:58:38,159 --> 00:58:39,559
like we did with these NFL ones.

1263
00:58:39,559 --> 00:58:40,840
Speaker 4: We're gonna get ahead of these ones.

1264
00:58:41,239 --> 00:58:44,320
Speaker 1: Correct. The last ten road games, the Mavericks are two

1265
00:58:44,360 --> 00:58:47,159
and eight ATS, but the last ten home games they're

1266
00:58:47,199 --> 00:58:49,800
seven and three. So there's a very clear trend. One

1267
00:58:49,840 --> 00:58:52,159
team that is much much better at home and really

1268
00:58:52,159 --> 00:58:55,199
struggles on the road, ATS the Knicks. I got to

1269
00:58:55,239 --> 00:58:57,079
bring up seven and three to the over the last

1270
00:58:57,079 --> 00:59:00,719
ten games, they are twenty sixth in defensive ratings since

1271
00:59:00,760 --> 00:59:03,800
winning the NBA Cup. This is a multi year trend here.

1272
00:59:04,840 --> 00:59:07,840
I don't know why it's just one extra game, but

1273
00:59:08,000 --> 00:59:10,280
why does the team that win the NBA Cup struggle

1274
00:59:10,360 --> 00:59:14,199
so bad coming out of it? But they have so?

1275
00:59:14,360 --> 00:59:16,599
Nick seven and three to the over last ten games,

1276
00:59:17,000 --> 00:59:19,639
and the best ATS team the season Phoenix Suns twenty

1277
00:59:19,639 --> 00:59:22,039
four and eleven. I bring this up, Dan, do you

1278
00:59:22,079 --> 00:59:25,679
think there's gonna be any NBA team that finishes seventy

1279
00:59:25,760 --> 00:59:27,960
seven percent against the against the spread?

1280
00:59:28,480 --> 00:59:31,440
Speaker 2: Dear God, I mean, that would be shocking. I think

1281
00:59:31,440 --> 00:59:33,199
that's got to come back down to earth. You talk

1282
00:59:33,239 --> 00:59:36,679
about you know, when we talked about like MLB this

1283
00:59:36,760 --> 00:59:40,559
past season with Yanni, he was like, these teams, they're performing,

1284
00:59:40,599 --> 00:59:42,800
but it will regress to the mean, you know what

1285
00:59:42,840 --> 00:59:45,079
I mean. Even look at how some of these teams

1286
00:59:45,119 --> 00:59:48,400
are you know, betters do in these circus sports contests,

1287
00:59:48,440 --> 00:59:51,239
like the guy who was leading Potato Commission. He had

1288
00:59:51,320 --> 00:59:53,559
the highest winning percentage at that point in the year.

1289
00:59:53,760 --> 00:59:56,719
He didn't even place top nine. So it's an impressive run.

1290
00:59:56,760 --> 00:59:58,559
You want to cash in on it while you can,

1291
00:59:58,880 --> 01:00:01,159
but that's got to regress of the mean. There's no

1292
01:00:01,280 --> 01:00:04,719
way that as far as the spread you're talking about, Sure,

1293
01:00:04,760 --> 01:00:06,880
you can go on in insane winning streak, but that

1294
01:00:07,000 --> 01:00:10,239
spread is that ultimate equalizer that eventually the team will

1295
01:00:10,280 --> 01:00:12,440
just get priced out of covering those kind of numbers.

1296
01:00:13,239 --> 01:00:16,000
Speaker 1: I would say the Suns, I would look very hard

1297
01:00:16,039 --> 01:00:18,760
at playing against the spread because the books are gonna

1298
01:00:18,760 --> 01:00:22,960
make these adjustments. So shout out to my pacers. By

1299
01:00:22,960 --> 01:00:24,800
the way, Dan, they've lost ten in a row. They

1300
01:00:24,800 --> 01:00:27,159
are now the front runner for the number one pick,

1301
01:00:27,480 --> 01:00:30,880
but they're five and five ats, so they're they're giving

1302
01:00:30,920 --> 01:00:33,679
you good effort. They're just losing games like they should,

1303
01:00:33,800 --> 01:00:37,440
and that makes me happy. So let's let's let's do

1304
01:00:37,519 --> 01:00:39,960
some free plays. Let's do some free plays for people.

1305
01:00:40,000 --> 01:00:41,599
Let's go all around the world and then we'll do

1306
01:00:41,679 --> 01:00:45,320
the ope. Then we'll do there we go, there we go.

1307
01:00:45,719 --> 01:00:48,239
All right, we're going to the Raptors and Hawks. RJ.

1308
01:00:48,400 --> 01:00:52,039
Barrett over nineteen and a half points. Fourth game back

1309
01:00:52,079 --> 01:00:54,599
from injury. Last game was his third game back, and

1310
01:00:54,719 --> 01:00:57,480
he went back to his normal role in his normal minutes.

1311
01:00:57,760 --> 01:00:59,800
This was a nice winner. He played a nice client

1312
01:00:59,760 --> 01:01:02,079
player winner for us. Played thirty minutes, he scored twenty

1313
01:01:02,119 --> 01:01:04,599
nine points, and he's playing the exact same team. He

1314
01:01:04,679 --> 01:01:07,960
led the shot with nineteen shot attempts. So Hawk's defense

1315
01:01:08,239 --> 01:01:11,119
really bad. So RJ. Barrett, I think this is a

1316
01:01:11,159 --> 01:01:13,880
few points too low. I don't think they've quite made

1317
01:01:13,880 --> 01:01:16,679
the adjustment that he's playing his full minute, So we'll go. RJ. Barrett.

1318
01:01:17,159 --> 01:01:20,000
Luca Garza, this is just kind of my bread and

1319
01:01:20,039 --> 01:01:23,239
butter here. I really need to keep concentrating on these

1320
01:01:23,400 --> 01:01:26,559
under the radar players that have these really nice trends

1321
01:01:26,559 --> 01:01:29,280
moving up. His minutes is going up. He played eighteen

1322
01:01:29,719 --> 01:01:32,079
plus minutes and six out of the last seven games.

1323
01:01:32,159 --> 01:01:35,280
He scored eleven plus points in three straight and he's

1324
01:01:35,320 --> 01:01:38,920
facing the Bulls who are twenty fourth in defending centers.

1325
01:01:39,199 --> 01:01:40,880
So we'll take a look look at Luke Garza over

1326
01:01:40,920 --> 01:01:43,719
seven and a half points, and then I'm gonna be

1327
01:01:43,719 --> 01:01:47,239
doing some new content starting tomorrow. It looks like, guys,

1328
01:01:47,320 --> 01:01:49,719
we're gonna have a separate show that is dedicated just

1329
01:01:49,840 --> 01:01:52,639
to daily props. I'm very excited about it. I talked

1330
01:01:52,679 --> 01:01:56,199
to Chris, talked to Dan, talked to Johnny, and we're

1331
01:01:56,239 --> 01:01:59,119
missing something with focusing in on doing a little bit

1332
01:01:59,119 --> 01:02:01,119
more deep dives and and we're also gonna do the

1333
01:02:01,159 --> 01:02:04,559
same game parlay every single day, and we're gonna shoot

1334
01:02:04,599 --> 01:02:06,159
for the moon on these. We're gonna go for some

1335
01:02:06,280 --> 01:02:08,639
higher price ones, but we're gonna do in depth about

1336
01:02:08,719 --> 01:02:11,119
some trends and ways that we can build our bankroll

1337
01:02:11,360 --> 01:02:13,239
with that. I don't have an exact format and that's

1338
01:02:13,239 --> 01:02:15,519
the beautiful part. We'll just play it by ear and

1339
01:02:15,559 --> 01:02:17,800
see what works. But here's an example of the same

1340
01:02:17,840 --> 01:02:19,480
game parlay that I think you can look at this

1341
01:02:19,519 --> 01:02:22,519
pace thirteen to one. Go take a look at an

1342
01:02:22,519 --> 01:02:25,920
alt line Pistons minus ten and a half. I disagree

1343
01:02:25,960 --> 01:02:29,039
with Yanni talked about how the groups are on the Knicks.

1344
01:02:29,119 --> 01:02:31,320
I disagree. This is the team that's lost three straight.

1345
01:02:31,880 --> 01:02:35,920
Their defense has gotten worse. So if the Pistons are

1346
01:02:35,920 --> 01:02:38,119
gonna win, I think they win by margin. And then

1347
01:02:38,159 --> 01:02:41,440
we parlay that with Isaiah Stewart under zero and a

1348
01:02:41,480 --> 01:02:45,079
half made threes. He's he got inserted in the starting

1349
01:02:45,119 --> 01:02:47,519
lineup and his like stats have gone down. It's like

1350
01:02:47,559 --> 01:02:49,960
he's going up against the starters, so he's not getting

1351
01:02:50,400 --> 01:02:53,400
the shots. He only has five three point attempts in

1352
01:02:53,440 --> 01:02:56,079
the last three games. So you want to shoot for

1353
01:02:56,119 --> 01:02:57,960
the moon here a little bit. We can take a

1354
01:02:57,960 --> 01:03:04,920
sprinkle on a thirteen to one same game, parlay all right, uh,

1355
01:03:05,559 --> 01:03:07,280
let's do all right, let's do the troll and then

1356
01:03:07,280 --> 01:03:08,079
we'll get out of here.

1357
01:03:08,880 --> 01:03:10,320
Speaker 4: Uh we got time.

1358
01:03:10,360 --> 01:03:12,440
Speaker 2: We're already, We're already an hour three and Andy, we

1359
01:03:12,519 --> 01:03:15,519
got time for the uh for the for for the troll.

1360
01:03:15,599 --> 01:03:18,800
I do have Jamaine's asking what time the show gonna

1361
01:03:18,880 --> 01:03:19,800
be great?

1362
01:03:20,280 --> 01:03:21,840
Speaker 1: Okay, what time is the show? Time?

1363
01:03:21,920 --> 01:03:24,079
Speaker 4: Is this this comment gonna make sense? This is your

1364
01:03:24,119 --> 01:03:24,599
new show?

1365
01:03:24,639 --> 01:03:25,000
Speaker 3: Andy?

1366
01:03:25,119 --> 01:03:27,559
Speaker 2: I I'm I I feel like I went it, Jamaine,

1367
01:03:27,880 --> 01:03:29,400
that's on me, Jamaine, I will, I.

1368
01:03:29,400 --> 01:03:31,119
Speaker 4: Will own that it is.

1369
01:03:31,320 --> 01:03:33,760
Speaker 1: It's gonna be called the prop line and we'll get

1370
01:03:33,760 --> 01:03:36,519
into a groove. It'll be it'll be up at the

1371
01:03:36,599 --> 01:03:40,400
latest by early afternoon. Like you do need to wait

1372
01:03:40,440 --> 01:03:42,320
on some of these NBA injury reports, so I don't

1373
01:03:42,320 --> 01:03:44,239
want to record the show at like eight a m.

1374
01:03:44,800 --> 01:03:47,480
And then by noon three guys have been ruled out.

1375
01:03:47,840 --> 01:03:50,280
So I would say early afternoon we should have a

1376
01:03:50,280 --> 01:03:52,559
pretty good idea of the injury report. And we're getting

1377
01:03:52,559 --> 01:03:54,039
a part of season where you can read in between

1378
01:03:54,039 --> 01:03:57,480
the tea leaves, like if somebody opens the day he

1379
01:03:57,559 --> 01:04:01,239
should play and by noon he's questionable out, you know

1380
01:04:01,320 --> 01:04:03,840
he's gonna be ruled out. So we should have and

1381
01:04:04,199 --> 01:04:05,679
it's not just end up gonna be.

1382
01:04:05,639 --> 01:04:08,119
Speaker 2: Douchebag response on my part. You may, I can admit

1383
01:04:08,159 --> 01:04:11,000
when I'm the douche that's on me. I pulled a press,

1384
01:04:11,159 --> 01:04:13,000
I pulled a press. Good, it's good.

1385
01:04:13,360 --> 01:04:15,280
Speaker 1: No, it's gonna be. It's gonna be a great show.

1386
01:04:15,320 --> 01:04:17,960
And we're not just gonna cover like NBA. This is

1387
01:04:17,960 --> 01:04:21,119
gonna be NBA, NHL. We're gonna have some same game

1388
01:04:21,119 --> 01:04:24,480
parlays for the college football playoffs obviously NFL, and then

1389
01:04:24,599 --> 01:04:27,559
you guys know, you guys know, I cover a lot

1390
01:04:27,599 --> 01:04:28,039
of sports.

1391
01:04:28,079 --> 01:04:28,639
Speaker 3: We will be.

1392
01:04:28,639 --> 01:04:31,000
Speaker 1: Talking Formula one when he gets here, a NASCAR when

1393
01:04:31,000 --> 01:04:32,400
he gets through these hidden gym.

1394
01:04:32,280 --> 01:04:34,039
Speaker 4: Market cross right around the corner.

1395
01:04:34,800 --> 01:04:37,559
Speaker 1: College of Lacrosse, by the way, boxing seven and one

1396
01:04:37,679 --> 01:04:39,840
run that they may make a lot of money off

1397
01:04:39,840 --> 01:04:43,119
of boxing. I did. So we'll talk about these sports,

1398
01:04:43,400 --> 01:04:46,559
but it'll center around props. So, okay, let's go to

1399
01:04:46,639 --> 01:04:48,760
the let's go to this roll, and then we'll get

1400
01:04:48,800 --> 01:04:54,000
out of here. I don't know, Okay, So I see

1401
01:04:54,039 --> 01:04:57,920
this comment. Andy's been pushing out piles of manure with

1402
01:04:57,960 --> 01:05:01,719
his free plays. Today he gave out Jiron Holmes the

1403
01:05:01,760 --> 01:05:04,440
second to get over eleven and a half points. Well, folks,

1404
01:05:04,440 --> 01:05:07,639
this wasn't even close. He got three. The Andy fade

1405
01:05:07,679 --> 01:05:08,719
is on for this better?

1406
01:05:09,280 --> 01:05:13,280
Speaker 4: Uh oh, Dan, I don't.

1407
01:05:13,039 --> 01:05:17,159
Speaker 1: Have this, No, I don't. I don't know who Jiron

1408
01:05:17,239 --> 01:05:17,760
Holmes is.

1409
01:05:18,760 --> 01:05:20,440
Speaker 4: Who's who is Jiron Holmes?

1410
01:05:22,000 --> 01:05:22,559
Speaker 3: Who is that.

1411
01:05:22,599 --> 01:05:27,039
Speaker 4: Play on them? Also? Who is Darn Holmes?

1412
01:05:27,559 --> 01:05:30,000
Speaker 1: Okay, so I actually had to do a little deep

1413
01:05:30,079 --> 01:05:33,760
dive here. I went back and looked it was not

1414
01:05:33,920 --> 01:05:37,000
on Uh, it was not on all around the world.

1415
01:05:37,000 --> 01:05:39,159
On Friday, I went and looked at my free plays.

1416
01:05:39,320 --> 01:05:42,079
I can't find anything. So then I tried to find

1417
01:05:42,159 --> 01:05:44,800
Jiron Holmes, and it's this guy who's in college at

1418
01:05:44,840 --> 01:05:47,480
like Harvard or something. So then I look, there's a

1419
01:05:47,679 --> 01:05:54,559
Duran Holmes that plays for Denver, but I can't find

1420
01:05:55,159 --> 01:05:59,880
any I can't find anywhere where I talked about Jiron.

1421
01:06:01,800 --> 01:06:04,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that's that's probably why he didn't get to

1422
01:06:04,199 --> 01:06:05,480
eleven and a half points.

1423
01:06:05,159 --> 01:06:13,840
Speaker 9: Sandy, just because he was he was hanging out in

1424
01:06:13,920 --> 01:06:15,639
imaginary land with Big Bong.

1425
01:06:15,920 --> 01:06:16,920
Speaker 4: So that's sorry about that.

1426
01:06:18,039 --> 01:06:21,119
Speaker 1: Sorry about that. Jiron Holmes prop went down in flames.

1427
01:06:21,159 --> 01:06:24,119
Speaker 2: Won't happen again. Won't happen again. We will never have

1428
01:06:24,199 --> 01:06:25,760
another play on Drawn Holmes.

1429
01:06:26,920 --> 01:06:30,000
Speaker 1: Now, Brian is right. I told you guys about Jake Larrabia,

1430
01:06:30,199 --> 01:06:33,199
like we we sadly lost the five dollars Tuesday play

1431
01:06:33,199 --> 01:06:35,320
on him. And guess what he's gone over every single game.

1432
01:06:35,360 --> 01:06:38,920
So yes, we've been writing, Uh, we've been writing Jake Laarraba.

1433
01:06:39,000 --> 01:06:41,320
He's been good. That line's gonna go up. He's been

1434
01:06:41,360 --> 01:06:43,719
like his line's been an eleven and a half and

1435
01:06:43,719 --> 01:06:45,599
I think he scored twenty six the other night, So

1436
01:06:45,760 --> 01:06:49,519
sadly this line may get away from us. But this

1437
01:06:49,599 --> 01:06:51,320
is why we're gonna do the prop show. We need

1438
01:06:51,360 --> 01:06:53,320
to talk about these things. We need to talk about

1439
01:06:54,400 --> 01:06:56,960
just these trends and these these under the radar guys.

1440
01:06:57,039 --> 01:06:59,400
So this is about making money. We will talk about

1441
01:06:59,400 --> 01:07:01,679
the big games more importantly, we'll be talking about building

1442
01:07:01,679 --> 01:07:04,800
bankrolls on that one. So all right, guys, long show,

1443
01:07:04,880 --> 01:07:07,119
but a great show, thank you very much. We've got

1444
01:07:07,119 --> 01:07:09,039
a good couple of shows coming up. Dan and I

1445
01:07:09,119 --> 01:07:11,760
are going to do our twenty twenty five recap in

1446
01:07:11,840 --> 01:07:14,320
our twenty twenty six look ahead. That's going to be

1447
01:07:15,159 --> 01:07:17,119
what aside Tuesday or Wednesday, we'll look and see where

1448
01:07:17,159 --> 01:07:19,199
we got some time. But looking forward to that, looking

1449
01:07:19,239 --> 01:07:21,199
forward to a big week again. Four percent. Best bet

1450
01:07:21,239 --> 01:07:24,079
that is up attached to that is the Props market Watch.

1451
01:07:24,199 --> 01:07:26,159
You got a bunch of different free plays and leans

1452
01:07:26,159 --> 01:07:28,239
and a bunch of different stats in there, so looking

1453
01:07:28,280 --> 01:07:30,519
forward to a big twenty twenty six. We're already up

1454
01:07:30,519 --> 01:07:33,679
fifteen units this year. Very very stoked about that, So

1455
01:07:34,239 --> 01:07:36,239
thanks very much for watching them. Please hit the like button.

1456
01:07:36,239 --> 01:07:38,599
It really helps us out and Dan, what's our goal?

1457
01:07:38,639 --> 01:07:41,159
What's Kelly won? Our goal? At for subscribers too.

1458
01:07:41,039 --> 01:07:46,039
Speaker 2: Gay, we're very nearing two hundred and forty thousands. So

1459
01:07:46,119 --> 01:07:49,480
if you haven't already made sure you hit that subscribe button,

1460
01:07:49,519 --> 01:07:51,519
tell your friends to hit the subscribe button.

1461
01:07:51,800 --> 01:07:54,320
Speaker 4: And I believe we just got a new subscriber.

1462
01:07:54,400 --> 01:07:58,719
Speaker 2: Andy jarn Holmes, research scientist at Amazon Global, take his

1463
01:07:58,960 --> 01:08:00,840
over research done today.

1464
01:08:00,960 --> 01:08:02,519
Speaker 4: That's my prop lock.

1465
01:08:03,920 --> 01:08:04,639
Speaker 3: Of the week.

1466
01:08:05,039 --> 01:08:10,199
Speaker 2: Take Doron Holmes, the research side Global over be over.

1467
01:08:10,320 --> 01:08:10,679
Speaker 3: Andy.

1468
01:08:11,920 --> 01:08:13,599
Speaker 1: Giron Holmes is going to be like, why am I

1469
01:08:13,639 --> 01:08:17,439
getting so many hits on my LinkedIn paget you?

1470
01:08:17,640 --> 01:08:20,359
Speaker 2: Doron Holmes is maybe the one that he was thinking,

1471
01:08:20,399 --> 01:08:22,359
but again not the free play, but I'm taking Giron

1472
01:08:22,640 --> 01:08:25,560
Holmes over his his research done over at Amazon.

1473
01:08:25,920 --> 01:08:28,960
Speaker 1: Well he didn't have the apostrophe between the A and

1474
01:08:29,039 --> 01:08:32,039
the R, but well, shout out to Gerron Holmes doing

1475
01:08:32,079 --> 01:08:34,560
good work there at Amazon Global. All right, thank you

1476
01:08:34,840 --> 01:08:38,359
very much, thanks for joining us. Guys. We'll see you

1477
01:08:38,359 --> 01:08:40,800
again the same time, same place tomorrow. Good luck you

1478
01:08:40,880 --> 01:08:41,960
know your best tonight. Take care