Speaker 1: You welcome to Way Did You Talk Today, the gold
standard of sports betting shows where we talk the talk
and walk the walk. It's Monday. We got a loaded card.
We are gonna go over some NFL. We're gonna do
some look aheads. We got NBA, we got college hoops,
we got a few other things to go over. We're
gonna go over the NBA props, market watch, We're gonna
go over a lot of things, kind of recapping this
NFL season. And no no better other person to do
it with then my buddy Dan, Alexander Dan. How was
the weekend? Dude?
Speaker 2: Is a great weekend man, nice betting weekend here, and
it's a favorite time of the year.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 2: We got NFL they still called Super wild Card Weekend
since they do the Monday game. Regardless wild Card games
are in action. I just want to make sure I
get the branding right, Andy. But where your your one
stop shop to get you ready to bet this week?
No Monday night football to talk about for the first time, guys,
So we're gonna be talking a little double header action
with Steve Merrill.
Speaker 4: That's right, two as one l and.
Speaker 2: Two NBA games for you Nuggets Sixers, best bets coming up, Warriors,
Clippers best bets. He's gonna stay on the hardwood, talk
a little college basketball, big matchup Michigan State USC.
Speaker 4: We always start with Yanni.
Speaker 2: We're gonna go through the steam report, see what he's
seeing as far as people hitting these early games, his thoughts,
early thoughts on the NFL Wildcard weekend. And of course
you know we got Bill krack Man crackham Berger that
is take the over on the rants, you know, coming
this Monday. He's got the NBA prop for you, and
maybe a touch upon the college football semis. But Andy,
all that and more hell of a weekend. Coach is
already being fired. Pete Carroll is out, and as Zach
Taylor is staying for the Bengals. Probably even worse than
firing your coaches is keeping Zach Taylor around. But hey,
this is where we're at. Andy on a Monday. Brother,
let's get into it.
Speaker 1: What was Raheem Morris the quickest coach.
Speaker 4: He might have gotten fired on the sideline.
Speaker 2: He might have gotten fired by the fourth quarter where
they were just like, you know, crazy, the crazy thing
about the Falcons. And also Andy, I have to pat
myself a little bit on the back here in the
in the open, when you and I went through our
five picks, I said, here is how the NFC South
will go.
Speaker 4: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Speaker 2: Will win the the the Panthers are going to cover
the game, and then the Falcons are going to win outright,
and the Carolina Panthers will be your champion. So we
nailed that on Friday, Andy, so so that at least
that helped me cash a couple bets. Couldn't quite parlay
all those results together, but but it feels good when
you see it that well, it was just you knew
that's how the NFC South had to end, right, and
that ending of that Steelers game. There's so much to recap,
there's so much to look forward to. But yeah, Raheem
Morris fired maybe like mid fourth quarter or the blank
game will look It was like, hey, buddy, just so
you know, coach Hart is gonna be your last few minutes.
And you could argueeen Morris, he is a huge part
of what was holding that team back. I mean so
much talent offensively, defensively. They played way better than expected
coming into this year. And if they don't lose that
game to the Jets. They're the team that's in the
playoff for the NFC South, and I would have been
cashing my playoff ticket, so I was happy. It was
a little retribution seeing Raheem Morris out costing me that
winning ticket.
Speaker 1: I did not hedge my season win total on the
Saints and just barely gets there. It barely gets there.
Speaker 4: So you're Raheem Morris's biggest fan.
Speaker 1: Love him, love him. Win didn't cover, didn't That's all
I got, baby. Uh, Let's bring in Yanni. Yanni, you
you had a heartbreaker on Baltimore on the money line
last night. That was that correct, just Y.
Speaker 5: I had a really good day, man, I had a
good a good week up for twenty twenty six, already
went four and two in the early and afternoon NFL
four percent plays a very good day, and then at
night I was ready to fire five percent on the
over and I had a strong lean on Baltimore as well.
All of a sudden, I get confirmation on Baltimore that
they are going to steam the Baltimore side. So I said,
let me get in on the money line before it
gets up to like really high. Because even though in
the series this the money line hasn't come into play
in a while. With these two, I knew it was
going through that key number of three. You know, it
was already three and a half, and it ended up
going to like four to four and a half at spots.
So I ended up putting in some Baltimore action and
and you saw how that turned out. But again, I'm
excited about the playoffs. NFL season finished. I finished number
one in profit in NFL, finished number one in profit
in college football. As those seasons have come to a close,
so we'll take it now, it's time to attack college basketball.
And I just got my updated Power ratings, the exact
same system that I used for NFL and college football.
Speaker 6: And here's what I'll share with you guys right now.
Speaker 5: I know that the posters look at Ken Palm a lot,
and I respect Ken Palm's numbers.
Speaker 6: In fact, I use his data. But here's what I
could tell you when.
Speaker 5: It comes to ratings and rankings, everyone has their own
system on how they do it, and so far I
disagree with what they have. They got Michigan as the
best team in the country. Nothing could be further from
the truth. They have Arizona's the second team, best team
in the country, nothing could be further from the truth.
They have Iowa stated as the third best team in
the country. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact,
they have Duke at nine. They have Duke get nine,
and on a neutral field, Duke would be about a
two point favorite over the field over every other team
in all of college basketball in true power ratings, closer
to a three point favorite. And you know who's right
behind them, the team that's exactly behind them.
Speaker 6: Let me see where he has them.
Speaker 5: Is perdue at least he has them fourth, and then Gonzaga.
Speaker 6: Which he has fifth troubled.
Speaker 5: But some of those teams, like they got Vanderbilt in
that I don't even.
Speaker 6: I can't you know how far you know how far
down I.
Speaker 5: Have to go to fourteen, And no, Vanderbilt, they just
cracked my Man's top thirty.
Speaker 6: They're now twenty ninth.
Speaker 5: They're now twenty ninth, and my Man's got them at
number six. I don't know where they are on the
ap pole, but that's exactly where you're going to be
able to make some money in college basketball exactly. You
like college football because a lot of the market is
based on rankings, the odds makers know that the betters
are looking at the rankings and these lines are shaded
towards the bias of that rankings. And just like we
took advantage in college football, going to do the same
in college basketball. And those power rankings are as sharp
as they come for NFL. So we're ready for these
playoffs and going into the playoffs, the number one team
he has adjusted and it is now the Seattle Seahawks.
So going into last week, and it wasn't even a
big adjustment with the Rams, they're like neck and neck
Seattle and the Rams, but it would probably be a
pick them in favor of Seattle this time, where just
a week ago the Rams were about, uh, you know,
one and a half point favorite, one one and a
half on a neutral field. So Seattle's picked it up
a little bit and you know that defense is legit.
The difference between the Rams in Seattle, Seattle's had the
number one toughest strength of schedule in the NFL the
Rams I mean, I mean the Rams had the number
one toughest strength of schedule in the NFL. Seattle about
fifteenth down an average strength of schedule. So we'll see
what happens in the playoffs. Just wanted to share some
power ratings with you guys.
Speaker 1: Nice. How do the do these power rankings from Ken Palmer?
Do these have a direct impact on on the on
the lines, Like what do the make?
Speaker 5: Because the odds makers know that a lot of betters,
even sharp betters, are using these numbers from Ken Pomp.
They're using his data. In fact, even his predictions. You know,
he puts a prediction out for you know, the every
matchup and if you look at the point spread in
the total, I would venture guests they're very close. Some
will be you know, a couple points off what have you,
but I would venture guests they're very close. And again
that's where I think you'll find a lot of the
edges and just learning from the betting syndicates and you know,
sharp guys that I've worked next to and had the
privilege of being in the room and listening to them
talk and having those discussions like how off the rankings
are and compared to what their numbers have, and then
it would just play out that way. So yeah, definitely,
Ken Palm ap those affect the betting market for sure,
because you see it. It's even in the conversation, Oh,
the unranked teams favored versus the ranked team. We say
it all the time, So the fact that it's in
the dialogue, it's just like subconsciously, we're always looking at
the rankings, who's number one, who's number ten, who's in
the rankings, who's un ranked, and it just has that bias.
It's almost like we talk about, if you look up
on the board before you create your own line for
an MMA matchup, you're already biased on who the favorite
of the fight is. And just like any game, if
you look up at the board before you made your
own line for next week's wild card games, then you've
already been biased to conclude that Chicago should be favored,
or Philadelphia should be favored, or New England should be favored,
or Houston should be favored. Where if you did your
own ratings and before you looked up, you may come
up with something different, you know what I mean, Like, wait,
Pittsburgh should be favored at home against Houston. But just
we're human, So if we look up at the board
and we see that the sportsbooks have Houston asked minus
three juice whatever, we already assume they are the favorite.
So that's why I like to uh set up my
power ratings and create what my the line is it
then look at what the board has for at least
for the markets I have numbers to create.
Speaker 1: Sure, sure we got a question. Can VR tell us
anyone that's undervalued in college basketball?
Speaker 3: Maybe?
Speaker 1: Do you have anybody that maybe who got off the
start that's playing good?
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 5: Yeah, great question. Let me let me let me look
at my list right here? Where's Alabama? Alabama is not
in the top ten. Alabama is a top ten team.
I'll tell you that right now. Another team, let me
look because of their record. Tennessee, Tennessee also a top
ten team. They're barely in the top twenty. Oh, here's
one you're gonna love. You want to talk about undervalue.
Let me see where they have Auburn. Ken Palm has
Auburn at thirty four. Okay, I have Auburn at eleven.
I have Alburn at eleven. So Auburn's right outside my
top ten, right behind Iowa State.
Speaker 6: In Tennessee, Florida.
Speaker 5: Another team I think that isn't even anywhere near the
rankings because of their record. Oh, they're fourteen, and Ken
Palm's Okay, at Florida thirteen, so that's close. But that's
what I look at, like those teams that the record
isn't like real sexy, but are still a really good team,
like Kentucky who's twenty, probably not even in the power
ratings in the rankings, I mean, but they are a
top fifteen team power rating wise. So yeah, I would
look at Kentucky, I would look at Auburn. And who
else did we talk about Alabama? We said in Florida,
not Florida, but yeah, Tennessee, Auburn's the biggest. Auburn's the biggest,
like I said, top ten team and nowhere, nowhere in
the power rating in the rankings because of their record.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Yanni, you know people, you know, Andy, people
are gonna want to know about a NFL playoffs. These
opening lines that dropped any early action that you saw.
But first, since we're talking college basketball, might as well
bring up college football. Do these games get hit early
the college football playoffs or you know you already know
who's in so you see people playing openers on these
have you really seen anything?
Speaker 4: And and just your thoughts as we head on into the.
Speaker 6: Next, great question, great question that they do.
Speaker 5: If it immediately, you'll know if they think the market's off,
they'll get hit immediately. That didn't happen, so now the
only thing that will happen is.
Speaker 6: On a side.
Speaker 5: On a side is if you see the market move,
like if the public moves aligne in one direction, and
then you'll see them come in and take some value.
But if they don't hit it early, they're probably not
going to hit the side late. Because you got to
remember this late in the season, these lines are really tight.
Most of the betting syndicates they're done. They're looking at
at team totals, they're looking at player props, maybe second
half bets, maybe a total. But they think the sides
the numbers are really tight and they're going to reflect
most of their power ratings. That's why they're rarely betting
the sides in these big playoff games. They're rarely betting
even in the NFL playoff games, and even in the
super Bowl, they rarely are betting a side in the
Super Bowl.
Speaker 6: They're betting the props maybe a total. So yeah, that's
a great question.
Speaker 5: That's why you don't see much of a movement like
Indiana has been on four all week even with the
total forty six and a half, moved a half point
one way, then back sitting at forty six and a half.
So no one's really taking a big position. But based
on my ratings there was both are off actually, and
I released a five percent for Friday, and I just
I'm starting to really like this. Thursday came as well.
I just haven't figured out what the rating is. So
if you're if your power ratings are different, you fire
right away. And we saw that at least the big
betting syndicates that are moving the market, they didn't do that.
So now it's just a matter of are they going
to do it late, Like is a player going to
be not playing that they thought was playing, so take
advantage of that information, or like I said, if the
public knocks the number out of whack or the weather
affects the total. But I think they're both in uh
oh no in Dome, so I don't know if it's
going to affect the weather at all.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean this time of year, these are just
such public known games. You got college role players like yeah,
Like it's pretty hard to find an edge in these games,
like opening line, isn't It's not like you know when
you have a week eighteen game where the book put
out puts out a line and all of a sudden,
the quarterbacks ruled out, Like like, where's the where's the
edge on these opening lines?
Speaker 6: That's we talked about it on the show throughout the week.
This is a perfect example of a tough market. If
the line's not moving, then it means it's pretty efficient.
Speaker 5: Like you're going to see an inefficient market, and that
what reflects that is a line moving significantly. That means
it's trying to find where it should be, you know
what I mean. But when in this late in the
NFL bro you're rarely going to see that kind of
move unless they're such a narrative. That's when we'll see it.
Like Billy Walters talked about where he bet you know,
seven figures on a Super Bowl because the opening number
was so off from what he had it he thought
the Dogs should be favored. Actually, but it was the
narrative that year that the team, the AFC team was
so much better than that Saints team, you know, And
that'll be the case, Like if one of these teams
that shouldn't be here start doing well, I think, then
that'll happen like if a Carolina beats the Rams type situation,
and then you know what I mean that something off
has to happen, or a narrative has or the Rams
have to be so dominant win by like forty to
where it looks like they're just been a coast to
the super Bowl now, and then the line will be off.
You'll be paying too high a premium and they'll get involved.
Otherwise they'll sit it out and look for props.
Speaker 1: Like you do nice. Yeah, yeah, oh yeah, we got
a lot of prop We got a lot of props
to go. We'll go over a lot of props in
the NBA. Do we have any steam for college basketball?
NBA will which all signs for you?
Speaker 5: Eight seven two Cornell minus one and a half, eight
seven to four, Ohio State plus one two minus one,
eight seven six Charleston plus two to minus one, eight
a four Brown Laid minus one, fifteen Get plus ten
and then eight a five Oregon minus five, NBA real quick,
Nicks minus one and a half and two Celtics minus
the ten, Sixers minus to ten and eleven and the
Warriors minus one. So there's some hoops for you. And
again we had that college football game later today. I
don't really have much my opinion right now. If it
was going off in ten minutes, my money would be
on Montana State and the under. But I haven't fired
on it anything, to be honest with you. That's just
based on those FCS power ratings, but they're not really
I haven't used them throughout the season. I just asked,
give me a number on it, and he Didne made
Montana State a two touchdown favor and he made the
total fifty three. So just based on his number, I
like the favorite and under.
Speaker 1: All right, what do you have up for everyone on
this Monday? All right?
Speaker 5: I have my five percent up for Friday. The Thursday
package will be up later today. Is well, just deciding
on how big a bet we will make it, and
if I'm able to confirm anything today, I'll put up
the package as well. Otherwise, got the long term team
up with me for twenty twenty six, looking forward to
these playoffs. We did really good in the regular season,
and I don't think the playoffs are gonna be any different.
So best of luck to everyone ahead and do some
damage this week.
Speaker 1: Nice, Nice, Let's let's have a big twenty twenty six. Yeah,
oh yeah, let's do this, man.
Speaker 3: We need it.
Speaker 1: We need a good year ahead of us. So thank
you very much Jeannie for joining us on this Monday. Dan,
We're gonna do some recap of NFL. We'll go where
the book actually pretty decent, like where the books won,
and where the public one, like we had some pretty
notable week.
Speaker 2: It was a crazy week of just trying to figure
out who's in, who's out, you know what I mean, Like,
it was a tough week to back, so I'm not
surprised that there's a pretty lopsided where books one where
public one, you know what I mean?
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, absolutely absolutely. I also got a pretty funny
troll comment that I would like to read at some point.
But we'll do NFL. We'll do NFL questions right here
real quick.
Speaker 3: Though.
Speaker 1: I do have a four percent best bet in the NBA.
We'll tell you about that a little bit later, because Dan,
we got some big, big things for twenty twenty six.
We're doing some things a little bit different, So we'll
tell everyone about that here at the end of the show,
and we'll expand upon it tomorrow. So let's go to
these questions here. So again, questions that I posed to you.
Who got luck here? The Panthers are the Steelers.
Speaker 2: Forty four yard field goal from a guy who's been
absolutely ripping him.
Speaker 4: I know he was a rookie. Maybe because boss Well missed.
Speaker 2: You know, it starts running through your mind when you're
a young player like this, I.
Speaker 4: Just can't screw it up. I can't screw it up.
You have to feel like the Steelers got pretty lucky.
Speaker 2: I mean, after that Isaiah likely catch, it seemed like
I mean there were accounts that were tweeting out signed, sealed, delivered,
game is iced, and then those old magnets on the goalposts.
Speaker 4: I saw some comments about that.
Speaker 2: People were saying, the uh the deciding factor for the
for the missed field goals back to back there, Andy,
of course, tongue in cheek.
Speaker 1: Well, you Rogers threw a pass that was so bad
like the Ravens defenders ran into each other and knocking
themselves out of the game. Like, but I am going with.
Speaker 2: The big brain stuff though, by Rogers throw a pass
so bad that you injure two players, I mean, that's
that's Hall of Fame worthy stuff, Andy.
Speaker 1: I mean, Rogers had had that run in the I
think it was the first half where he had a
run for a first down and instead of running for it.
Speaker 4: And he pulled up.
Speaker 3: So fu that.
Speaker 1: Night, I'm going with Panthers. How do you have a
must win, you lose the must win, and you still advance.
I mean that was basically.
Speaker 4: Good teams win, great teams cover.
Speaker 2: They covered the game, so the betting gods said, we
have to make sure that the Falcons win this next game.
Speaker 1: Out unbelievable, all right, Worst New York performance the Jets
having no interceptions for the season. I don't know if
you saw this. Somebody on somebody on Twitter calculated this out.
If you would have bet one hundred dollars on game
one for the opposing quarterback to not have an interception
and then just rolled it over and bet it every week,
you'd have like six million dollars. So the Jets andy
or the Giants winning two meaningless games at the end
of the season to fall to number five. Worst New
York Jets performance.
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, dude, the Giants they do this every year,
I believe. I don't have the exact numbers, but it's
something like the record being like eight and thirty something
for these New York Giants team games.
Speaker 4: Four of those wins came in week seventeen or eighteen,
when they were already eliminated and were only playing to
up their draft stock.
Speaker 2: So nothing new here for the Giants. So going an
entire season without one pick. And did you see in
the game yesterday there was one that hit the defender
directly in the hands and he was just exasperated, Like,
I feel like they had to be in on the bit, Andy.
I mean, it hit him directly in the hands. It
was a lob ball, and he still drops it, not
having an interception for the first time since it's been
recorded for an entirety of a season.
Speaker 4: That's got to be the worst performance we know the
Giants do this.
Speaker 1: Agreed, Agreed, completely, agree completely that it's at especially when
you go higher a defensive coach.
Speaker 2: Like yeah, well, and for the Giants coach the Giants
towards the end of the year, you know they're playing
for their interim head coach, potentially auditioning for a new
coaching job, especially with all these new openings. And I'm
sure you know the story with John Mara and him
battling through through his cancer diagnosis. So there was something
that the Giants said, Hey, we already have our quarter
we have a running back, we have our edge rushers.
Speaker 4: Sure we need some offensive line help to shore up.
Speaker 2: A little bit in the front, but we have a
great wide receiver who's going to be coming back. There
was a point where the Giants just said, let's just
ball out this year because we don't need the draft stock.
I mean every team does, obviously, Andy, but there was
clear decision in that organization and in that locker room
to say, let's just roll out the rest of the
year and and have some building blocks for next year.
Speaker 1: Joey says, a former defensive back head coach.
Speaker 4: Nice, well done.
Speaker 1: It's really it's that that is well done, all right.
Best slash worst QB situation coming out of twenty twenty
five going into twenty twenty six. You have the Dolphins
who've got Tua and let's just say, Quinny Ewers did
not put a lot of faith that they have their
future quarterback. The Colts, you've got Daniel Jones coming up,
the Achilles Anthony Richardson has done, and then Riley Leonard
looks competent against the Texans team that was actually, yeah,
Vikings JJ McCarthy with this hand thing. Uh, didn't look
good at a lot of times. What do you do there?
The Browns just perpetually the Browns, what do we do?
Chador who is moving forward? Or the Cardinals who've got
Jacoby Brissett who has really showed his true colors down
the stretch.
Speaker 4: Uh?
Speaker 1: And then you have Kyler Murray. So I'll give you
best and worst. Who's got the worst?
Speaker 3: Here's the thing.
Speaker 2: You look at the Colts and you saw how Riley
Leonard played against that solid Texans defense who has made
life hell for quarterbacks. You almost look at the Colts
and say, what were you doing bringing Philip Rivers in?
Why didn't you just roll a couple of weeks with
this young guy? See what he had? A complete misstep
by them. You know, Daniel Jones coming back from injury.
How does he look? But he looked pretty damn good
while he was healthy. Dolphins two was not gonna be
there next year, you know what I mean? Major question
mark Cardinals. I would be shocked if Kyler Murray takes
another stat for them. So, out of all of these teams,
Dolphins will have a different quarterback situation. Cardinals will have
a different quarterback situation the other three?
Speaker 4: What do you kind of do? So as far as ranking.
Speaker 2: Best or worst, you just kind of throw the Browns
in the worst because of the Browns and then you
take it agree, you know what I mean? And Stefanski
was just fired for what it's worse. So you're gonna
have a new look there in Cleveland.
Speaker 1: I agree, Browns probably have it worse, Probably Colts have
it best.
Speaker 4: We somewhere's my question.
Speaker 2: We got our Colts guy in here and he's saying,
did you see Riley Leonard? I mean I was watching
the game saying, hell no, did he look worse than
a forty five year old Philip Rivers. I don't know
who might be smoking that smoking that block, because he
surely wasn't worse than a forty year old man.
Speaker 4: And that's that's for sure true.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to where the books one, where
the public one, and then we'll do the we'll do
the betting stats after we yeah, after Bill, we're late,
all right, we're the books one. Texas minus the points.
That was a big win for the books. Chiefs minus
the points, Chiefs money line and minus the points. That
was a brutal one and the Bengals minus the points
to the Browns where the public one Jacksonville minus points
was a huge win. Chargers Denver Unver that was pretty
much no sweat, and the Patriots minus appoints. Those were
the big winners for the books and the public. We'll
do NFL and NBA stats later, but let's bring in Bill.
We got to hear our NBA prop fix Stoughts on
college football, and of course the patented crack Man rants
Bill Happy minday, how are you.
Speaker 3: Hey, guys? How you guys doing all right?
Speaker 7: And it's not going to be crack Man rants. It's
really gonna be what crack Man's been saying in all season.
NFL props is where the money is.
Speaker 3: To be blunt.
Speaker 7: I think I swept on wager talk with props last week.
Speaker 4: Let's go.
Speaker 7: My only loss is eight and one in the NFL
eight on props that I released all obtainable lines too.
I don't give out bullshit like you can get this
prop at bet three sixty five. No way, I give
you a obtainable line. You can get a DraftKings, Fandel,
Caesar's MGM everywhere. So my only loss for the week,
I had Giants under first half, which was a terrible,
terrible loss. I shouldn't really rant about one loss, but
just trying to set up for a field goal and
they wound up scorn or freak touchdown. So anyway, props
is where it's at. Guys, I'll just tell you that
I've been saying it all season. I said it, I
meant it, I'm here to represent it. I'm just telling you,
like I usually don't get a little bit cocky and arrogant,
but I've been saying to everyone on every show, I'm
on get on board for props. I'm going to beat
the NFL props.
Speaker 3: No, I'm not.
Speaker 7: Gonna go eaight you know every week But and again
this because I use unit sizing, so I'm telling you
about more and props up almost forty one units last week,
forty point seven units on wager talk between everything, including
the eight and one in the NFL. So all I
can tell you is, if you have an allergy to.
Speaker 3: Money, don't listen to me. I understand, but if it happens,
it happens.
Speaker 7: People who have allergies to money, they want to bet
NFL sides, and you want to have some randomness like
the Pittsburgh game last night you want.
Speaker 3: To have, you know.
Speaker 7: And by the way, because I live in Vegas, I
actually had that minus one fifty five money line on
Baltimore last night, and at game time I usually don't
middle things, but at game time, I see I found
the five, so I actually took plus five. So that's
like it was like a fourteen thousand dollars win I
should have had instead of losing like juice.
Speaker 3: I lost a lot of juice. Actually I lost.
Speaker 7: About like like like four grand or something. No less
than that, I lost like twenty four hundred I think
it was. But yeah, I mean that kick cost me
a lot of money.
Speaker 3: Was I upset? I went to bet not even thinking
about it.
Speaker 7: I'm numb to that kind of stuff because I know
that how much money I bet on my props, and
I know I had a even though even when with
that loss, you know, living in Vegas, I'm saying, you
get those middles and scalp opportunities with these square of sportsbooks.
Sometimes there's slow moving sportsbooks, and so that one hurt me,
but it didn't matter. I didn't give it to customers.
I'm not giving I don't give too many size to customers.
It's more first halfs, which I've actually even though losing
the Giant game, I've been successful this year on the
props is where it's at. I just keep on saying it.
I tell you guys at the end of every show,
get on board for the props. Get on board and
thank you for the ones that did. Thank you, not
even for me, thank you for beating your book maker.
Thank you, thank you, thank you. Isn't it the greatest
feeling when they open up their app or their website
and see you went eight to oh on NFL props
and they say, wow, what is this guy? And now
what happens? I'm hearing already people get thrown out of
their local guy. Local guys. Everyone thinks you're a sucker.
Everyone does things and treats you like a sucker, like
you're supposed to lose. And by the way, I'm using
the Brick and Mortars sportsbooks too, they just think you're suckers.
Speaker 3: You're supposed to lose.
Speaker 7: Now, places like Westgate, Circa.
Speaker 3: I killed Westgate this week.
Speaker 7: I killed Circa on A in general, on other things,
but as far as props go, oh God killed Westgate,
killed some sports books this week they take the bets
for me. But there's other sports books like if you
bet them with DraftKings automatically. DraftKings is like, oh, wait
a minute, this guy's betting props. He know, wait a minute,
he has a pulse, he bleeds red. Get rid of him.
Speaker 3: We want suckers and losers only. And I'm sorry.
Speaker 7: I know it's gonna qust Bill Krackenburger in the end,
because there'll be some show along the way that maybe
even a big show that Hey, Crack, we'd like to
have you do host this show. We want you to
do this. Oh, but DraftKings they don't want you.
Speaker 3: Good. Guess what.
Speaker 7: I don't need your money. I don't need to do
any shows. I'm very good in life. I hate the
brag about it. I'm very good in life. I don't
need any sponsors for shows. It's great to have them,
and I'll help you with them. And I love interviewing
the direct the sports books, and I love I'm very
friendly with some of them.
Speaker 3: But I'm on a rant today.
Speaker 7: Yes, I'm want to rant today about a lot of
different I don't like this last email I just got.
Speaker 3: It was actually a DM.
Speaker 7: On Twitter that his bookmaker threw him out for he
actually went thirteen and one and his bookmakers threw him out.
I said, hey, his name is Dan. Also, I said, Dan,
what have you done for the season though? Have you
you know? He said, crack. I've killed them on props.
I'm a loser betting NFL sides for the year. I
may have broke even for eighteen weeks and the bookmaker
threw him out this week.
Speaker 4: I mean, just because he went on it's brutal. And
that's that's why.
Speaker 2: You know, one thing that that Bill says and there
it really is, you know, us versus the bookmakers. Obviously
we have great relationships with some of them. They're great guys,
but at the end of the day, we want to
beat them at their own game. That's for damn sure.
And I love it Bill if you go on here
like it's not really going to be crack rants and
then you're like, actually, hold my beer, I got a
little something for you, brother. But also the I said it,
I meant it. Now I'm gonna represent it. I'm definitely
using that. That's that's a hell of a line.
Speaker 3: Crack.
Speaker 2: Before we get into an NBA prop that you have
for the folks. I do just want to get your
thoughts here. We got Steve Merrill coming up. He's got
some NBA bets and some college basketball bets coming your
way as well. So the picks are coming, folks, But
just early thoughts here. Wild Card weekend. Do you fire
on openers? Were there any openers that stood out to you?
And does the focus on props continue? Does it drop
down a little bit come playoff time or is it
just full steam ahead now that there's fewer games and
it's something that's more focused on heading into the heading
into the playoffs.
Speaker 3: I'm logging in. I'm logging in.
Speaker 7: I made one bet, and I'm just trying to think
of the detail. I don't want the public to bet
on these things just because this is a strictly on
the line. I just bet that, just now, I just
bet that at south Point, I bet that that's the
three layan three minus a dollar ten. I just bet that.
I thought the three is a good line. There's three
and a half is popping up there. It's more of
an anti Steelers play. It's more anti Steelers play, and
to be real, Blunt one of the sharpest sports books
in the world has Green Bay Packers minus one minus fifteen.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I saw that.
Speaker 2: Logic's I mean, that's basically split line because you know
you have them as one, one and a half at
one spot last night, and now we're seeing pick thems,
we're seeing Chicago one. I mean that's a coin a
divisional playoff game where they split in the season bill,
that's it's a coin flip game.
Speaker 7: There's the line right there circa as you see has
pick them. Right next to that is Chris Sports Sports
four one one is minus one minus a dollar fourteen.
And I gotta tell you, I am real tempted as
it's an anti Chicago play.
Speaker 3: Just like.
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's an anti Chicago play. I really don't bet
a lot of money on the NFL sides, like NFL props.
I'll bet whatever I can get I would. I mean, uh,
thank god, some of these books here in town take
two thousand and one thousand bet MGM has been taking
a couple thousand from me. I'll bet as much as
I can on NFL props, but sides, I really don't
usually don't bet that much, but I am going to
be betting uh anti plays on I'm going against Chicago
and going against Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2: I do like Patriots too. I mean I almost put
Patriots in that same milk. They got one win against
the winning team last year. Do you do you kind
of put Patriots in that same category.
Speaker 4: They're three and a half point favorites.
Speaker 2: Uh, going up against the Chargers at home this weekend,
and sure Chargers are nothing to sneeze at. But when
you talk about strength to schedule and how much it
matters heading into come playoff time, you know, I what
the Patriots kind of in that same ilk is how
I view the Steelers, how I view the Bears.
Speaker 7: Looking at the four that I see at South Point.
Oh there's a four? Yeah, south points four. I'm listening
right now my Odds logic screen. Uh, it's that's pretty tempting.
You're right, it's pretty tempting. But I did not bet
the game. It's three and a half everywhere, didn't bet
it if yet if it was three. This is how
the margins are so close. If that game was three,
I probably lean to the Patriots. But what the four,
I would lean to the dog probably, but I'm not
betting it, so I'm not I'm telling you the games
that I bet. I bet Houston. I don't like the
road so much so in games, but I bet Houston. Well,
i'd tell you I didn't want to come on here
and give sides. Listen, this is Peter.
Speaker 4: I got you. I just had to get your thoughts.
Speaker 2: I'm not I'm not putting you in a box here, crack,
but I just wanted to get your thoughts. I know
you do want to get people an NBA prop, so
we can we that's the specialty here.
Speaker 3: Bill.
Speaker 2: You just went eight and er with your NFL props.
Hell of a weekend. What's the free play on the
hardwood for the folks tonight.
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's been, it's been. It's been good. Like I
said last week, forty one unit. That's between everything. Though
I actually won on like everything last week. So let
me make sure the line is right because I did
this an hour ago.
Speaker 3: Okay, ma MAXI.
Speaker 7: Yeah, MAXI from the seventy six ers over God. Sounds
like a lot, but I know this is this is
what the numbers show though. Over thirty five and a
half points and assists. He's gonna he's gonna have Embiid
with him tonight. So Denver shouldn't double team Nuggets are
bottom five in the NBA too, allowing points assist against
point guards. Maxie should have a big night tonight and
thirty five and a half minus fifteen, and I'm looking
at over thirty six and a half plusle five. Okay, good, there,
there's so there's a couple. There's a couple places there.
You guys can bet these things.
Speaker 3: You know. It's funny. I never was an over guy.
Speaker 7: I was always an under guy, like seventy percent of
my bets, but I've adjusted more. Prior line was probably
like seventy five eighty percent over. I'm probably more like
sixty percent I'm sorry, seventy five eighty percent unders. I
am more like probably not fifty to fifty, but I'm
still like sixty percent unders. But overs I have adjusted
to in general. And like I said, part of the
eight and oh was was some overs, including like Austin
last night in the NFL Austin and Pittsburgh, like I
had over as receiving yards. So I will bet overs
on certain things. But here's a little hints. There will
never be a time I had one time I had
Rogers over this year quarterback. I don't think I'll ever
bet a quarterback over again. I'm an under on quarterback
because I'm an under. You know, people love to see
these big quarterbacks like Stafford. Think about this big game yesterday,
played the entire game, which I didn't expect. I had
under Stafford yards. It still went under. It still went under,
even though he had a big offensive game, and uh,
you know they.
Speaker 3: Won the game.
Speaker 7: I think they they scored like thirty seven points. I
think they scored scored a ton of points and still
went under. That's exactly why these numbers are so overinflated
on more key players like a Stafford, like maybe a
key running back or a key wide receiver, but mostly
the quarterbacks because they're in the spotlight. I'll have unders
on most of those quarterbacks. It's funny. The one time
I had over this year on Rogers, he didn't. He
didn't get there.
Speaker 2: So yeah, no, it seems like he only gets there
when he's playing that Ravens defense. Is when when he
finally is able to light it up. I will say
on the maxi prop and that's over points and assists.
You you said, points and assists is what we're going over. Yeah, lasses,
last time that he faced off against the Nuggets. It
was a forty two point night twenty nine. Going over
this with some regularity to the team that he matches
up well against. I'm a Sixers guy, so you know
I'm gonna be tailing that one bill before we send
you on your way. Brother, What do you got rocking
and rolling? I'm sure you already got some stuff locked
and ready to go as we as we head of
the week, it is a big time betting week.
Speaker 3: It's real simple.
Speaker 7: Even though the playoffs are here and everyone wants to bet,
they get excited. Oh my god, I look forward to betting,
and it's a great week to watch football. But as
far as I probably won't have any sides, possibly a
first half total we're looking at, or even a maybe
a full game total, but anyway, we're looking at that. However,
the props that are obtainable, I can't stress enough. I'm
gonna have playoff props. I'm gonna have super Bowl props.
Get on board for the next month so you get
the super Bowl.
Speaker 3: I'll just tell you that we have to. I can't
stress it enough.
Speaker 7: Every week I go on to say it, thank you
for the people that have listened, thank you for beating
your man, I'll just tell you that I absolutely love it.
I enjoy beating bookmakers and.
Speaker 3: Having them sweat and shake and throw.
Speaker 7: People out so you can beer it back in. They're
so effing stupid, you get right back in so it
doesn't matter. And by the way, thank you for the
sportsbooks that have thrown me out. Thank you for the bonuses.
We really appreciate coming back in and getting brand new bonuses.
Speaker 3: Again, thank you, thank you very much.
Speaker 4: Thank you.
Speaker 2: Indeed, and I know we had a lot of people
in the chat asking about the FCS Championship. Bill has
a play up right now five percenter on the FCS Championship.
You can grab over his page WT Dot buzz backslash Crack.
Bill always a pleasure man. Best of luck on that play,
Best of luck this week. We'll see you next Monday,
mat And yeah, you can grab that play Andy thirty
five dollars or you get the all access you know
as a prop better. All access is great simply because
these lines are volatile. These lines do move, so these
all access clients they get the notification to their inbox
from the email that second the play goes up and betting,
I would argue that's even more important than when you're
betting sides and totals.
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, absolutely, man. You know I'm a props guy.
We'll talk about some props. But let's let's bring in
Steve Merrill. He's been patiently waiting. Steve, thank you very
much for patiently waiting. We had a lot of information
to get through. How was your weekend, so.
Speaker 8: We always it went well. Eleven and four start to
the new year in basketball and football, seventy since start. Yeah,
you know, it's funny, guys, I as Dan knows, I
told everybody in the videos because we had some great
promo codes the last week of December. I was like,
don't wait until January first to make that new Year's resolution. Well,
I guess people should have waited the jail. Oh that's
actually not true. We won the last week of December,
so it was good to get in the week before
because you're still on board now. But yeah, it's been
a great start to the new year, and we'll look
to keep it rolling tonight. I've got one NBA Best
bet tonight and also a free college basketball play on
my page. We're not talking about either one of them here.
I'm gonna give you three more games free. But yet
another reason to go to my age every day at
wager talk dot com and don't forget the best bets
are recapped. You can see those last twenty plays. You
can click on them, read the analysis afterwards and to
get the thought process. And as Dan loves to do,
learn what you earn.
Speaker 3: You could talk TV.
Speaker 4: Together, earn and earn and win together.
Speaker 8: Well, what's funny, Dan is you can learn and earn
to win together at wager talk dot com because you
can see everybody's best bets and recaps afterwards. Yeah, I
do highly recommend doing that. By the way, it's like
a free course in sports betting, right. You know, everyone's like,
I don't have enough of a bank roll. I'm not
a big enough better to buy the best bet service.
I love the free play Steve and the videos and
that's why I do them, and that's why we put
them on the page. But as you're building your bank roll,
you can educate yourself also, go to Andy's page, go
to my page, go to crack Man's page, click on
the analysis afterwards. I mean, it's really a great resource
for free.
Speaker 1: Appreciate that. Yeah, if you go to my page, We'll
show you how to take two soccer plays and parley
him with the NFL money line for a who's this team,
Who's this team?
Speaker 8: And all the games and he's using to find out
what countries are located.
Speaker 1: In and you can try and figure out who under
average on darts in the World Championships. Yeah, a lot
of fun. All right here, let's go over some teams
we do know about. We've got a double header in
the NBA tonight. We got Nuggets, Sixers, Warriors and Clippers.
We got this Nuggets Sixers. I mean, the Nuggets are
just trying to tread water here with the amount of injuries.
They did get Aaron Gordon and Christian Brown back, so
that's gonna help get the Sixers team that may are
They just riding the hottest Tyrese Maxi right now. He's
playing incredible ball. So I'll let you start with the
Nuggets and Sixers. I'm not going to interrupt you. We'll
just go right into Warriors and Clippers on this NBC
Peacock double header.
Speaker 8: Two national TV games in the NBA to not on Monday,
January the fifth, both on the Peacock Network. If you
know where to locate that it's a spinoff of NBC.
But yeah, we got Amazon Prime games, we got Peacock,
a lot of National TV NBA games for the next
few months, and this is your double header. We'll start
with the first game at eight thirty Eastern tonight, Denver
Philadelphia and Boys at the Big Number Open Philly nine.
It's now up to twelve some eleven and a halfs,
twelves and a halfs. We'll just say twelve right now.
If you look at the overall stats this season, it's
a huge overreaction. Denver's been the better team this year,
but obviously it's not the same Nuggets team as of
the last week of December. When Yokics got injured against
Miami back on December twenty ninth, they've now played three
and a half games basically without him. It has not
been pretty overall. They lost that Miami game.
Speaker 3: Of course.
Speaker 8: In fact, they're just if you include that Miami game,
they're just one and three straight up. One at Toronto, though,
is a seven point dog the next game without them.
We always see that bounce back when the superstar is out,
and they've dropped back to back game since. However, this
is still a Nuggets team that I think is pretty
good offensively and maybe a little suspect on defense. And
the reason I say that the last two games they've
given up over fifty percent shooting. In fact, if you
go back, even when Yo Kids was in the lineup,
still they've given up over fifty percent shooting now in
for their last five game and they've given up forty
nine percent or worse, and six of their last seven
even with Jokics the big man in the middle, they
were not playing great defense. I don't think that's gotten
any better. But what did improve in that Brooklyn loss
yesterday on Sunday is that the offense got better. They
shot forty eight percent from the field after shooting just
forty two and a half the first two games without Jokiic.
I think we can ride maybe that offensive improvement tonight.
I would lean towards the Nuggets plus twelve twelve and
a half. I think this is a vast overreaction, as
they are starting to get a little healthier elsewhere, but
I like the over better over to twenty nine and
this one. Keep an eye on the injury report, though
these lines have been moving around all day, hopping up
and beat as listed as probable. Denver might have some
other guys in er out playground mentality, tire, teams, defense
very questionable with Denver. I like the up and over
two twenty nine, and I would lean towards the Nuggets
plus twelve twelve and a half. I just think this
looks like a little bit of an overreaction at eight
to forty Eastern. All right, your late night game on
Peacock on the West Coast, Golden State Clippers, This should
be a good one on Golden State open to one
and a half point favorite. Very little movement on Monday
so far there's still a one and a half point favorite.
A few ones out there. Totals moved a little bit
to the over in this one. Open two twenty four
now up to two twenty five and a half in
most locations as of Monday afternoon. Clippers pretty good current form.
Didn't look great in their last game blowout loss, but
before that they had won six in a row straight
up and against the spread. And the loss I'm talking about,
of course, came on Saturday and when they lost by
thirty one as a one point home favorite against the Celtics.
I don't think anything's broken. This is still the team
that's six and one straight up in ATS or last seven,
playing pretty good defense overall. In fact, the one bad
defensive outing, not surprisingly was that Celtics game. But whenever
you get a team that's in good current form nothing
necessarily wrong with them, and they have a terrible defensive
out and they remain at home day off to practice
and regroup, I usually look for a better showing. So
I do think the Clippers are the preferred side as
the plus one home dog tonight, and Golden State decent
record over the last couple of weeks six two straight up,
but if you look at their spread record, they're just
one in four against the spread the last five, which
tells you they're an overrated team right now the betting
public and the odds makers. At least their numbers are
a little too high. They're winning, but they're not covering,
and I think that's the case here again tonight, as
they don't deserve to be a one point favorite. I
think the Clippers win this game, and they're a live
dog at plus one. And it's also not that it's
a huge deal, but it is a revenge game from
late October back in like the fourth fifth game of
the season, Clippers lost by nineteen on the road at
Golden State. A little bit of a revenge factor team
in good current form, but most importantly coming off a
bad showing defensively. I think the wrong team is favored here.
Clippers plus one a live dog tonight in your late
game on Peacock at ten forty Eastern.
Speaker 1: Great breakdowns, Steve Merrill, We're going to go to college
basketball Michigan State USC. I'm not a big college basketball fan.
I know Michigan has been having a monster year. Talk
to us about this Michigan State team in this USC team.
Where are these teams at right now? What do you
expect from the matchup to.
Speaker 8: Yeah, maybe per capita of the best basketball in the country.
The best basketball in the country's been in the state
of Michigan. The Detroit Piston's having a pretty solid season
in the NBA. Michigan Wolverines are definitely the best team
in college basketball based on my ratings, but Michigan State's
pretty good as well. In fact, this is a top
twenty five matchup tonight on Monday between USC and Michigan State.
USC coming in twenty fourth last week in the eightp.
I billieve Michigan State's like ninth, USC did fall out
of the coaches poll last week. They dropped out of
the top twenty five. And of course they did not
look very good in their most recent game against the
Michigan Wolverines, a thirty point loss on Friday at Ann Arbor.
But as I said, no shame in losing. The Michigan
Wolverines are the best team in the country, really stout
on both ends.
Speaker 3: Of the court.
Speaker 8: Tough test here. This is a tough double double for
a West Coast former Pac twelve squad. Here they're having
a wake up call in the Big ten, going from
a loss against Michigan to now play Michigan State. By
the way, this game is on national TV tonight. I
believe it's Fox Sports one if I'm not mistaken. At
eight thirty Eastern USC at Michigan's State, we saw Michigan
State open as about a ten point favorite. The money
has come in slightly on the Spartans. It's now up
to eleven ten and a half eleven in most locations.
A little bit of money on the over as well.
One forty eight and a half has risen to one
to fifty and a half some one to fifty ones
also starting the show. It's going to be a battle
of tempo in this game. USC is one of the
fastest full court teams in the country, ranking top forty
in pace in possessions. Michigan State under Izzo always plays
smash mouth half court basketball, always a great rebounding team,
and they like to slow things down. And speaking of rebounding,
three hundred and sixty five teams in Division one basketball
this year and Michigan State ranks top ten in both
offensive and defensive rebound percentage. USC does not rank one
hundred and top one fifty in either one. They're not
even top two hundred in defensive rebounding. So I do
think Michigan State's gonna get a lot of second chance points.
They hold a substantial defensive edge in this game. Now
where USC has the edges, there are slightly more efficient offense,
and they do play a lot faster, as I mentioned,
but I think that'll be negated a little bit what
in a slowdown game. USC also does hit the three
pretty well, and that's been the weakness for Michigan State.
They give up a lot of three point shots. They
have a good three point defense, but they give up
a lot of shots from three. By the way, the
number one free throw rate team in the country is USC.
Michigan State does not put teams on the free throw
line much. I don't think USC is going to get
a lot of second chance points. I don't think they're
going to be able to play their preferred pace, and
I don't think they're going to get to the free
throw line as much as they need to. That's where
they get the majority of their scoring when they play fast.
I agree with this money move. I like Michigan State
here minus the ten and a half to eleven. I
don't think it's a bounce back spot for USC after
the thirty point loss. They were exposed in that Michigan loss,
and they're once again stepping up in class here and
playing another team that is better than they are. And oh,
by the way, let's look at Michigan State in their
last game. They lost to Nebraska on Friday on the road,
so that's even more of a bounce back spot for
the Spartans. As far as I'm concerned, both teams off
a loss. I'd had the better team at home with
the matchup edge. If you're gonna play it. I would
lay the double digits with Michigan State tonight at eight
thirty eastern on Fox Sports One.
Speaker 1: Steve Merrill Great Breakdowns. Do you have any cut We
asked Yanni early, do you have any college basketball teams
that might be a little bit undervalued, teams that might
like slow starts maybe look to play on Now that
we're getting into some serious conference player, what's some teams
you've been looking at to fade or follow.
Speaker 3: Well.
Speaker 8: I got to give a shout out to my Weim
Mary tribe. They have a huge game tonight on a
CBS Sports network. It was actually moved from Saturday for
national TV against Charleston. They were eleven and one against
the spread this year eleven and one against the spread.
I actually the metrics I look at actually as them
as a better team to not against Charleston. But Charleston's
a two point home favorite, and I'm very worried about
this game that I don't have a good feeling about it.
Charleston's probably the fifth best team efficiency wise in the
CAA right now, but they've won six straight and they're
always a tough team to play. So that's actually a sneaky,
good game to watch the night. Brian Earld's doing an
incredible job in his second season at Women Mary and
Charleston will be a real test tonight. They're only non
cover this year. By the way, it was at Saint John's.
They missed by five points in the game, which they
only trail I think by three at the half. So
I don't think there's a lot of value left with
him when you're in eleven to one against the spread.
But we'll point out about when mayor there's something you
can track with all the three hundred and sixty five teams,
they've gotten a lot better defensively this year. They currently
have one of the six best three point defenses in
the country. Now, there's sometimes random variants with three point
defense after five six games, but after ten or fifteen
games there's not as much, so but keep an eye
on that. Also keeping eye on teams that are really
shooting well from the free throw line. Maybe as a dog,
that's something I like to look at. But I really
look at matchups for college basketball, and we broke it
down with that Monday night game Michigan State and USC.
You want to look when teams have a strength versus
a weakness and advantage. Always talk about tempo fast versus slow,
but look at matchup edges as well. When three hundred
and sixty five college basketball teams to handicap, pick your
spots right, Know that you have a real team that's
really good at one thing or not in the You
have a short list every day and when you get
that matchup, you dig in, you make sure all the
players are in there, and you fire away. That's how
you do a short list. That's how you handicap college basketball.
You cannot analyze three hundred and sixty five teams, two
hundred games every weekend and do it efficiently. You got
to have a shortcut. That's one I recommend using.
Speaker 1: Good stuff Steve, awesome breakdowns, good information of always making us,
always making us smarter. What do you have about for
everyone on Monday?
Speaker 8: So it is a great card for Monday night. Great
card for Monday night is I have a strong NBA
best bet on my page right now, Steve Merrillwager Talk
dot Com eleven and four start in January for twenty
twenty six and football and basketball best bets. And it's
not a surprise. We had sixty five percent of the
NBA and in December, and now we're eleven and four
all sports in January, so the NBA's has been crushing it.
Get Tonight's NBA Best Betting, Get the bonus free college
basketball play. I do have a big matchup in college
hoops free on my page with analysis and then of
course recap the last twenty best bets. You can see
that eleven and four start of the year. You can
see all the plays win or lose, full transparency on
the place to read the analysis, learn and earn at
wagertalk dot com, Steve merrilwagtertalk dot com and get there quicker,
wt dot buzz, slash sm and I'm going to record
semi final videos for both college football playoff games this
week and also every NFL playoff game. I did it
for all the Bulls. I'm going to give you the
NFL playoff game free here on wager Talk TV. So
make sure you click subscribe. You click the bell for
instant alerts. We're so close to two hundred and forty
thousand subscribers. Kelly Stewart is excited. She doesn't get excited
too often, so we got to get to two hundred
and forty K. So then we can get to two
hundred and fifty K and say we have a quarter
million subscribers. Make sure you're one of them. Click subscribe,
click the bell thumbs up, like and positive comments below,
because we do read the comments here on wager Talk TV.
Speaker 1: Do you want to see Kelly Stewart get excited?
Speaker 2: She's very well with a human being, Yeah, but not
animated at all.
Speaker 1: You play blackjack and when the person next to her
hits and bus and takes her card, then you'll see
Kelly Stewart excited.
Speaker 8: My college roomate did what he called gonzo blackjack, and
I never forget. I was in Vegas, like twenty some
years ago and he just did not give an f
and he was at a table split in twenties double it.
Speaker 4: Best.
Speaker 8: He might have been a little inebriated. In fact, he
was as they say at Animal House. We maybe took
liberties with our female guests.
Speaker 3: We did, but he.
Speaker 8: Might have been a little enebrate. But he would turn
and just go gonzo blackjack. I mean, if you ever
wanted to just throw some money away and have fun
with it, that was the way to do it. So
you're taking yeah, yeah, don't sit it third base, right,
third base is the worst spot to be a bad
non basic strategy player. First base is not good, but
third base. But here's the thing. It honestly doesn't bother
me because and I try to explain this to people,
it really truly does not, because it'll help you as
much as it hurts you. Right, we always talk about
there's a good beat on every side of the bad beat.
All the Pittsburgh money linebackers were pretty happy within this
field goal last night, but nobody's talking about that, right,
So that's a good point. Yeah, So that's one thing
that's honestly, it's never bothered me. In blackjack if someone
plays wrong because it don't change the cards. I agree, well,
it does change the cards, but you never know.
Speaker 1: You don't know how online, Yeah, know how it's going
to change the cards. All right, Steve, thanks for joining us.
Thank you very much. Brother. It's for good Monday. Have
a good Monday. Yeah. So Dan and I will go
into a little bit more in depth detail how we're
gonna change things. But we got a four percent best
bet that is up in NBA. And in the write up,
I did a full props report as a market Watch
of all the different props that we really really like.
So we're changing up how we do things. But for tonight,
four percent best bet is up. Don't get one play,
get a package, get a seven day, get a three day.
We've got a lot of big things coming up. Twenty
twenty six off to a great start. Love when these
futures come in, Dan, I I keep I keep telling it.
Futures is like we talk about props. Futures is just
the hidden money of you wake up.
Speaker 2: And you're like, what the hell, Why do I have
an extra you know, a couple hundred dollars. Oh yeah,
I bet that team three months ago to go under
their season win total.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, it's great.
Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely absolutely So we have a five percent best
bet in UFC that is up right now. Really encourage
you guys to lock that in early uf season. Out
for a couple of weeks, but get this line in now.
And then we got NBA four percent best bet. We
hit our best bet last night. We hit three NBA
winners in a row, So starting to heat up. Let's
do some trends here. We got a bunch of we
got some free plays, we got some trends We've got
one of my favorite troll comments I've heard in a while.
But let's do NFL betting trends. Yeah, yeah, let's let's
do NFL betting regular season.
Speaker 4: The Cowboys day and hit again.
Speaker 1: Yes, Brian Power. Brian Power had the onions the plums
to take this one. Cowboys finished the season going sixteen
and one on the first half overs, absolutely incredible. As
we mentioned, the Jets zero interceptions this season. Chiefs ended
the season one seven ats on the road. Meanwhile the
Seahawks eight and one ats on the road, and team totals,
your best team ended up being Jacksonville thirteen and four
to the over worst team to the over Raiders twelve
and five. Just trying to figure you got to figure
these trends and things out as they're happening. The Cowboys
one is the one we should have after about six
or seven weeks. We should have seen the riding on
the wall with that team.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's that's.
Speaker 2: That's absolutely true, and like we said, it was going
to continue. So if you if you watched when Sandy
brought this up three or four weeks ago, hey, you
had three or four winning bets. So that that's why
we do this, and you know some of these teams
obviously out you know, uh Seahawks on the road. That's
not gonna matter anymore because if they do continue to win,
they're going to be at home.
Speaker 4: They're the number one seed.
Speaker 2: One that would likely matter is this Jacksonville Jaguars team
who's facing off against the Bills defense, who's given up
points to everyone that totals already sky high Andy biggest
one of the week, and fifty one and a half
Jacksonville team to total figures to end up a little
bit higher than twenty five and a half. So that's
what it's sitting at right now. You could probably shop
around and even find a twenty four and a half
out there. Jaguars team total over probably something I'd like
to bet because I think I think you have a
barking home dog in that one. Jacksonville has been great
at home, and the Bills their road favorites just because
the name on their jersey. What have they shown this
year that's telling you they should be laying one and
a half in Jacksonville. I don't think they can stop
that all. Now with that, I'm gonna I'm gonna use
that trend and I'm gonna back that Jacksonville Jaguars team
total over.
Speaker 1: Let's go to some NBA betting trends. These are ones
that you can use right now.
Speaker 2: Smart, so we're we're not looking at it too late
like we did with these NFL ones.
Speaker 4: We're gonna get ahead of these ones.
Speaker 1: Correct. The last ten road games, the Mavericks are two
and eight ATS, but the last ten home games they're
seven and three. So there's a very clear trend. One
team that is much much better at home and really
struggles on the road, ATS the Knicks. I got to
bring up seven and three to the over the last
ten games, they are twenty sixth in defensive ratings since
winning the NBA Cup. This is a multi year trend here.
I don't know why it's just one extra game, but
why does the team that win the NBA Cup struggle
so bad coming out of it? But they have so?
Nick seven and three to the over last ten games,
and the best ATS team the season Phoenix Suns twenty
four and eleven. I bring this up, Dan, do you
think there's gonna be any NBA team that finishes seventy
seven percent against the against the spread?
Speaker 2: Dear God, I mean, that would be shocking. I think
that's got to come back down to earth. You talk
about you know, when we talked about like MLB this
past season with Yanni, he was like, these teams, they're performing,
but it will regress to the mean, you know what
I mean. Even look at how some of these teams
are you know, betters do in these circus sports contests,
like the guy who was leading Potato Commission. He had
the highest winning percentage at that point in the year.
He didn't even place top nine. So it's an impressive run.
You want to cash in on it while you can,
but that's got to regress of the mean. There's no
way that as far as the spread you're talking about, Sure,
you can go on in insane winning streak, but that
spread is that ultimate equalizer that eventually the team will
just get priced out of covering those kind of numbers.
Speaker 1: I would say the Suns, I would look very hard
at playing against the spread because the books are gonna
make these adjustments. So shout out to my pacers. By
the way, Dan, they've lost ten in a row. They
are now the front runner for the number one pick,
but they're five and five ats, so they're they're giving
you good effort. They're just losing games like they should,
and that makes me happy. So let's let's let's do
some free plays. Let's do some free plays for people.
Let's go all around the world and then we'll do
the ope. Then we'll do there we go, there we go.
All right, we're going to the Raptors and Hawks. RJ.
Barrett over nineteen and a half points. Fourth game back
from injury. Last game was his third game back, and
he went back to his normal role in his normal minutes.
This was a nice winner. He played a nice client
player winner for us. Played thirty minutes, he scored twenty
nine points, and he's playing the exact same team. He
led the shot with nineteen shot attempts. So Hawk's defense
really bad. So RJ. Barrett, I think this is a
few points too low. I don't think they've quite made
the adjustment that he's playing his full minute, So we'll go. RJ. Barrett.
Luca Garza, this is just kind of my bread and
butter here. I really need to keep concentrating on these
under the radar players that have these really nice trends
moving up. His minutes is going up. He played eighteen
plus minutes and six out of the last seven games.
He scored eleven plus points in three straight and he's
facing the Bulls who are twenty fourth in defending centers.
So we'll take a look look at Luke Garza over
seven and a half points, and then I'm gonna be
doing some new content starting tomorrow. It looks like, guys,
we're gonna have a separate show that is dedicated just
to daily props. I'm very excited about it. I talked
to Chris, talked to Dan, talked to Johnny, and we're
missing something with focusing in on doing a little bit
more deep dives and and we're also gonna do the
same game parlay every single day, and we're gonna shoot
for the moon on these. We're gonna go for some
higher price ones, but we're gonna do in depth about
some trends and ways that we can build our bankroll
with that. I don't have an exact format and that's
the beautiful part. We'll just play it by ear and
see what works. But here's an example of the same
game parlay that I think you can look at this
pace thirteen to one. Go take a look at an
alt line Pistons minus ten and a half. I disagree
with Yanni talked about how the groups are on the Knicks.
I disagree. This is the team that's lost three straight.
Their defense has gotten worse. So if the Pistons are
gonna win, I think they win by margin. And then
we parlay that with Isaiah Stewart under zero and a
half made threes. He's he got inserted in the starting
lineup and his like stats have gone down. It's like
he's going up against the starters, so he's not getting
the shots. He only has five three point attempts in
the last three games. So you want to shoot for
the moon here a little bit. We can take a
sprinkle on a thirteen to one same game, parlay all right, uh,
let's do all right, let's do the troll and then
we'll get out of here.
Speaker 4: Uh we got time.
Speaker 2: We're already, We're already an hour three and Andy, we
got time for the uh for the for for the troll.
I do have Jamaine's asking what time the show gonna
be great?
Speaker 1: Okay, what time is the show? Time?
Speaker 4: Is this this comment gonna make sense? This is your
new show?
Speaker 3: Andy?
Speaker 2: I I'm I I feel like I went it, Jamaine,
that's on me, Jamaine, I will, I.
Speaker 4: Will own that it is.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be called the prop line and we'll get
into a groove. It'll be it'll be up at the
latest by early afternoon. Like you do need to wait
on some of these NBA injury reports, so I don't
want to record the show at like eight a m.
And then by noon three guys have been ruled out.
So I would say early afternoon we should have a
pretty good idea of the injury report. And we're getting
a part of season where you can read in between
the tea leaves, like if somebody opens the day he
should play and by noon he's questionable out, you know
he's gonna be ruled out. So we should have and
it's not just end up gonna be.
Speaker 2: Douchebag response on my part. You may, I can admit
when I'm the douche that's on me. I pulled a press,
I pulled a press. Good, it's good.
Speaker 1: No, it's gonna be. It's gonna be a great show.
And we're not just gonna cover like NBA. This is
gonna be NBA, NHL. We're gonna have some same game
parlays for the college football playoffs obviously NFL, and then
you guys know, you guys know, I cover a lot
of sports.
Speaker 3: We will be.
Speaker 1: Talking Formula one when he gets here, a NASCAR when
he gets through these hidden gym.
Speaker 4: Market cross right around the corner.
Speaker 1: College of Lacrosse, by the way, boxing seven and one
run that they may make a lot of money off
of boxing. I did. So we'll talk about these sports,
but it'll center around props. So, okay, let's go to
the let's go to this roll, and then we'll get
out of here. I don't know, Okay, So I see
this comment. Andy's been pushing out piles of manure with
his free plays. Today he gave out Jiron Holmes the
second to get over eleven and a half points. Well, folks,
this wasn't even close. He got three. The Andy fade
is on for this better?
Speaker 4: Uh oh, Dan, I don't.
Speaker 1: Have this, No, I don't. I don't know who Jiron
Holmes is.
Speaker 4: Who's who is Jiron Holmes?
Speaker 3: Who is that.
Speaker 4: Play on them? Also? Who is Darn Holmes?
Speaker 1: Okay, so I actually had to do a little deep
dive here. I went back and looked it was not
on Uh, it was not on all around the world.
On Friday, I went and looked at my free plays.
I can't find anything. So then I tried to find
Jiron Holmes, and it's this guy who's in college at
like Harvard or something. So then I look, there's a
Duran Holmes that plays for Denver, but I can't find
any I can't find anywhere where I talked about Jiron.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that's that's probably why he didn't get to
eleven and a half points.
Speaker 9: Sandy, just because he was he was hanging out in
imaginary land with Big Bong.
Speaker 4: So that's sorry about that.
Speaker 1: Sorry about that. Jiron Holmes prop went down in flames.
Speaker 2: Won't happen again. Won't happen again. We will never have
another play on Drawn Holmes.
Speaker 1: Now, Brian is right. I told you guys about Jake Larrabia,
like we we sadly lost the five dollars Tuesday play
on him. And guess what he's gone over every single game.
So yes, we've been writing, Uh, we've been writing Jake Laarraba.
He's been good. That line's gonna go up. He's been
like his line's been an eleven and a half and
I think he scored twenty six the other night, So
sadly this line may get away from us. But this
is why we're gonna do the prop show. We need
to talk about these things. We need to talk about
just these trends and these these under the radar guys.
So this is about making money. We will talk about
the big games more importantly, we'll be talking about building
bankrolls on that one. So all right, guys, long show,
but a great show, thank you very much. We've got
a good couple of shows coming up. Dan and I
are going to do our twenty twenty five recap in
our twenty twenty six look ahead. That's going to be
what aside Tuesday or Wednesday, we'll look and see where
we got some time. But looking forward to that, looking
forward to a big week again. Four percent. Best bet
that is up attached to that is the Props market Watch.
You got a bunch of different free plays and leans
and a bunch of different stats in there, so looking
forward to a big twenty twenty six. We're already up
fifteen units this year. Very very stoked about that, So
thanks very much for watching them. Please hit the like button.
It really helps us out and Dan, what's our goal?
What's Kelly won? Our goal? At for subscribers too.
Speaker 2: Gay, we're very nearing two hundred and forty thousands. So
if you haven't already made sure you hit that subscribe button,
tell your friends to hit the subscribe button.
Speaker 4: And I believe we just got a new subscriber.
Speaker 2: Andy jarn Holmes, research scientist at Amazon Global, take his
over research done today.
Speaker 4: That's my prop lock.
Speaker 3: Of the week.
Speaker 2: Take Doron Holmes, the research side Global over be over.
Speaker 3: Andy.
Speaker 1: Giron Holmes is going to be like, why am I
getting so many hits on my LinkedIn paget you?
Speaker 2: Doron Holmes is maybe the one that he was thinking,
but again not the free play, but I'm taking Giron
Holmes over his his research done over at Amazon.
Speaker 1: Well he didn't have the apostrophe between the A and
the R, but well, shout out to Gerron Holmes doing
good work there at Amazon Global. All right, thank you
very much, thanks for joining us. Guys. We'll see you
again the same time, same place tomorrow. Good luck you
know your best tonight. Take care