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Speaker 1: We got Parker Fleming on the line. Parker, how you
doing today?
Speaker 4: I'm doing great, man, Thanks for having me excited to
die in and talk a little stats.
Speaker 1: Absolutely well.
Speaker 3: I mean this goes back to last year, right b
YU football twenty twenty three stats and maybe weren't what
they should have been, but now twenty twenty five, both
teams last year were eight to now twenty five team,
both teams eight. No how the stats differed through the
eight games from last year up until this year. You
have a true freshman quarterback, but last year you had
a quarterback that had three or four years of college
football experience.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the uau is is definitely a different
team than they were last year. I think two years ago,
you know, obviously there was kind of a second half break.
Speaker 5: Down and and and things like.
Speaker 4: The shoe kind of dropped and the team wasn't there.
Last year, the schedule lined up much better for them
to continue rolling off of a start where they were
fortunate and got some breaks. This year, they've been much
more solid on both sides of the ball, and I
think it really comes from embracing their identity. I have
them ranked you know, thirty thirty fifth and offensive EPA
for play twenty fourth in the rush, and that is
adjusted for opponent.
Speaker 5: That's you know, really really solid.
Speaker 4: That's what they want to do is is run the
football and set up those big plays and try.
Speaker 5: To capitalize it.
Speaker 4: I made the joke that this year Yu's entire team
kind of feels like a high school wrestler who doesn't
have a takedown and so what he wants to do
is just pop down.
Speaker 5: On the mat and hit a reversal on TENU.
Speaker 4: They're just kind of waiting for you to make that mistake,
and they're doing that by rushing well on offense and
then playing hard notes defense in both phases of the game.
Their tenth against the pass and EPA per play allowed
and twenty third in the rush. So definitely a nice
build of the foundation. You've seen it over the last
couple of years as the lines and the defensive backfield
and the skill positions have been good that BYU could
be in a position where the style of football they
play doesn't require that high end talent and they can
let somebody like bear Bachmeyer come in use his skills
on the ground and rushing and have him hit big
open windows in those explosive pass plays and kind of
grow into the position to raise their ceiling in future years.
Speaker 3: Yeah, with bear Bachmeier and the talent that they have around,
and you brought it up yourself, how will they run
the ball?
Speaker 1: LJ. Martin.
Speaker 3: He did get dinged up in that Iowa State game,
but they still even though they weren't able to run
the ball they to throw it probably the best that
they have. I know West Virginia he threw more yards,
but those a lot of yards after catch, and that's
not a very good football team. But I always stay
considered to be one of the one of the I
would say, top six teams in the Big twelve, no doubt.
When you look at your metrics and your numbers. Stanford,
East Carolina, Colorado, West Virginia, Arizona, Utah, Iowa.
Speaker 1: State, those are the games they play.
Speaker 3: When it looks when you compare it to rush to
pass ratio, which game, according to your metrics has been
BYU's best game.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I'm pulling up and just plugging, you know,
my own, my own kind of stats. I had a
game log on my website cfddashgrafts dot com where you
can go see EPA per play for offensive defense in
their games. The two that stand out on offense are
the Colorado game. They average zero point two seven to
four EPA per play, So in simple language for people
who may not be as deep into the stats, that's
over a quarter point of value every play.
Speaker 5: That's really really good.
Speaker 4: And then the Iowa State game of zero point two
four eight so positive value adding about a quarter point
per play, really really solid, and both of those featured
it was kind of kind of different how they got
to those. In the Colorado game, they were able to
run well, but they passed super well zero point three
seven six epa per pass, so again over a third
of the point per play the BYU or the Iowa
State game. They did not actually run the ball super well.
Is a middle ning performance, you know, a fortieth to
sixtieth percentile just under zero expected points added per play.
But the passing game was a top twenty percentile performance
from YU against Iowa State zero point four four one.
So they hit those couple of big plays. They were
able to move the ball downfield, take advantage of frankly,
you know, Iowa State not really knowing one having some
injuries in the defensive secondary, which matters, but Iowa State
was one hundred percent sure, like do we pressure Bachmeyer
and then try to contain him when he runs or
do we play zone and try to make him make decisions?
And I feel like Ioa State really got caught straddling
defense there, didn't commit to either strategy, which led to
some good runs by Bachmeyer and then some wide open
windows as guys slipped through. You know what, yus ye
receivers are always so active, they're coming back to the ball,
they're they're they're reading some of the defense and finding
those windows. And Bachmeyer was set up to make some
really solid broth.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Having Chase Roberts and Parker Kingson definitely helped these numbers.
Both of those guys have gone over one hundred yards
together collectively in two games. Now in the season, you
have to think do they have one more a couple
more in them to do? So let's transition to the
defensive side of the ball. Now, what was Buye's best
game defensively? According to the numbers when you look at
that Iowa State game, they outscored them thirty one to
three in the second half.
Speaker 1: But the numbers might say otherwise.
Speaker 4: Yeah, the Iowa State game a little problematic in the
wrong game. They did get beat in the rush against
Iowa State, obviously the two interceptions that mattered a whole
ton and kind of flipping the game State and putting
points on the board for BYU there. I think their
best game overall was Stanford, which to be expected given
what we've seen. Stanford be on the field this year
negatives point three eighty six EVA per play. That's a
top twenty percentile performance, very very solidly, and then every
game since then it's kind of been an imbalance of
you know, are we mastering one phase. So you look
at the Colorado game, they gave up some rushing yards
to Colorado plus zero point one eight eight EPA for
rush aliddle, that is a bottom twenty percentile performance, but
the pass game was almost negative a quarter point in
EPA per play, which is a top twenty percentile. So
it does seem like Yu's defense is able to pick
up the slack by focusing on one area.
Speaker 5: So that Stanford game is really really great.
Speaker 4: West Virginia obviously quality of competition in both sides of
the ball, and in East Carolina as well. In terms
of Big twelve play, you know, the West Virginia game
was their their best, and then the Iristate game was actually,
even with the rushing performance, was their second best in
terms of EPA per play, just because they generated some
big negative screens on in the passing game that really
pulled down the overall average and kind of covered up
for some issues against the rush.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they had three takeaways in the game. Rockebec had
only three throwing three interceptions all season, so I know
those three interceptions had to contribute at one, which was
a forty rd pick six about Folasasaswall, and they had
two sacks as well. So I love that the numbers
say that because I've debated you know, some fans of
some other people, they're like, oh, they ain't play anybody
you know in the non conference.
Speaker 1: Well that may be true.
Speaker 3: Then it's like, well, Colorado's not a good football team,
nor is West Virginia. And then people say they got
lucky against Utah. Well I'm glad that the numbers showed
that the Iowa State game is the second one, because
that's a good football team. You go out there on
the road and then they defeat them. So now if
these numbers backed it up, maybe you can silence some
of those those those haters out there.
Speaker 4: Yeah. Well, I think people tried to go like last
year and like like people try to try to conflate
last year. But this year, like DYU in terms of quality,
is much better this year than last year. And last
year is really one where you were like, man, they
should they probably should have lost that Friday night Oklahoma
State game where they you know, last minute theatrics and
the and the provo magic kind of helped them there.
Speaker 5: Or the Kansas State.
Speaker 4: Game where it looked like Avery Johnson's brain just turned
off for like four minutes and that turned out.
Speaker 5: To be kind of what flipped the game. That's not
what's happening with BYU this year. Even in the games.
Speaker 4: Where they've had you knows that I talked about and
we might talk about here, like a negative success rate,
it's not like, oh darn, they should have lost this game.
It's saying, hey, they know exactly their identity and they're
playing for their identity really really well, and are there
going to be some limits maybe Like we want to
talk about the run defense verys Iowa State and how
that didn't look very good. But what Yu has been
able to do is kind of pick up the sack
on the other side of the ball. So I think
it's really important to separate last year from this year
with by You've got a bunch of lucky bounces last year,
that doesn't mean they were, you know, necessarily a fluky
team or something unsustainable. They're not getting those bounces per se.
This year so much as they're playing to their identity
really really well. Coach Kataki has an absolute grasp, maybe
better than anybody in college football of how their team
needs to win and just the discipline and being able
to enact that has really helped.
Speaker 5: Them this year.
Speaker 1: You bring up a valid point.
Speaker 3: Parker as world aligned with Parker flipping here and then
let's talk about stat segment. He is the creator of
the CFB Graphics dot com. He can go check out
his work. Please guys go follow him on statle wars
on his x page as well to see all of
his work that he puts out. You bring up a
good point, though the Parker Kingston, like you said the
ball bounced away. You got the Keeling Marrion kickoff return
in the Utah game, one of those moments to Parker
Kingston Kansas State Houdini in the house type moment where
bounces over it said, even the Colorado Bowl game where
the punt return happened, those bounces have not occurred this
year byus, just flat out. I would say I played
football for all four quarters and have to go out
there and beat They're a pont which leads me to
the next thing. You put this out on your Twitter page.
Did we really get beat that bad? The net success
in Week nine BYU beats out with State forty one
to twenty seven. So how bad did Iowa stay really
good beat in that game?
Speaker 4: The margins were closer than the final score. I think
it's the way to say that that DYU was, you know,
down early. I mean, we look at this game. It
was what twenty four to seven with like a minute
or twenty four to ten with like a minute and
a half left in the first half, and DYU does
what they have been very good at under coaches hockey,
running the two minutes roll finding a way to score there,
and then you know, an overwhelming second half. Are they
able to capitalize on some mistake? So I think what
that graph is showing you is in the first half,
YU got down and instead of luck, we should be
talking about resilience. I think one thing I immediately treated
this as soon as Iowa State scored, I said, if
there's anybody in the country I trust to overcome a
first place touchdown like that, it's BYU.
Speaker 5: Like that is a team who is not going to have.
Speaker 4: The mental fortitude breakdown that some other teams might have
where they say, you know what, this just isn't our day.
Speaker 5: We're on the road. This is a good team.
Speaker 4: They are relentless and trying to find ways to win,
and again playing with that strong sense of identity, they
keep poking and prodding, and like I mentioned before, they
were able to get Iowa State kind of straddling on
on that run pass and then take advantage of the
interceptions there. So the margins were very close in this game,
and most people want to look at this as a
fourteen point win and say, wow, you know BYU dumbed them.
I don't think that was the story at all. I
think BYU and Iowa State played a very competitive game.
They're very similar rate of teams according to all line metrics,
and DYU came it on top because they were resilient
after Iowa State threw their best at them. They made
some good halftime adjustments to shut down Iowa State's offense
three points in a couple turnovers in the second half,
and they played in the state free football on the
offensive side. So all those things kind of combined to say,
you know, looking at the net success rate and seeing
BYU as a negative, I think eighty I wrote back
and around this, eighty five percent of games this season,
the team with the higher success rate has won. Like
it is, it is a metric that kind of generally
tells us in the down and down.
Speaker 5: Business of moving to football, how did you do?
Speaker 4: What we can account for is kind of the first
half second half split and the adjustments that by you
made to overcome such a deficit and still win despite
you know, in a very broad metric, getting the ball
move against them better than they were moving it against the.
Speaker 1: Development does Iowa State team?
Speaker 3: I'm looking at the number right now on your website,
and out of the seven games played, two in the
top twenty percentile, two in the top sixty to eighty,
and then you know the other two obviously in that
twenty to forty percent. Looking at the numbers of this
year and last year, has Iowa State been one of
the top teams, if not the best rushing team in
the Big twelve?
Speaker 4: Yeah, Looking at at how Iowa State has done offensively,
they're thirty first in EPA per rush, which is just
again one measure that does include the Dyu game where
they were able to move it a little bit.
Speaker 5: They're just kind of a level.
Speaker 4: Below that you paw in Cincinnati and BYU who are
needing the conference there. And then on defense against the rush,
Iowa State is third, so a really solid rushing defense
behind TCO Texas Tech, who have both been pretty great
in the run game as well.
Speaker 5: So top five in rushing.
Speaker 4: On both places of the ball for Iowa State. You know,
really really solid, really competitive team in the trenches, as
we've come to expect from the Matt Campbell John Heacock pairing.
Speaker 1: I need you to send some live park.
Speaker 3: I'm going to get roasted for this question, but I
got to ask the school up north, how do they
compare towards b Y U b Y You beat them,
but I kind of I don't want to say the
numbers are flawed, but they've run up the score on a.
Speaker 1: Couple of teams in the Big twelve.
Speaker 3: And also they played a backup quarterback which b YU
has not necessarily played just yet.
Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely fair to think about, you know, blow that
blowouts and how those affect our underlying numbers.
Speaker 5: The Texas Tech game, you know, they played a top
team and didn't look great.
Speaker 4: That the Arizona State game certainly inflated because of who
was on the field there, and they did take it
to Colorado that that b YU game was close, and well,
you know, just talking about my adjustment process, what I
like to do is look at, you know, the total
number of drives, how much you rushed, how much you passed,
kind of what would your average score be given all
these variables that we know kind of determined success in
a game. And one thing that's really important to have
is preseason priors. Right, I think about going into the season,
what do I think a team is that that's if
you don't have that, what you're saying at the beginning
of the season is every team is equal. And you
and I know if Alabama played Can't State tomorrow, you
know you are on Week one, we wouldn't think those
teams are eating, right, So there are some priors built
into this a little bit in the system. And Utah
was towards the top. I had them, you know, top
five in kind of at the beginning of the season,
a team that I thought was really solid. I like
the dam Pierre edition. One concern I had with Utah
was Damn Pier playing in structure. We saw him last
year in New Mexico be able to you know, improvise
so much, and he has They've had some issues when
he's played in structure as opposed to creating that gap
between Utah and BYU has closed. I still have Utah
in front of the YU based on the preseason priors,
based on the body of work, but that gap is
substantially closed as we're looking at a b YU team
that is outperforming their preseason priors and a Utah team
who has gotten some help in some big spots and
looked a little inconsistent when when they've played kind of.
Speaker 5: A certain type of top talent team where you.
Speaker 4: Know Texas TEK and BBYU have very disruptive runs and
defenses that want to cause havoc. You thought I struggled
against them. So it's important to keep the number in
front of you. It's also important to keep priors in
front of you and to think about matchups as we
kind of compare what teams Utah can succeed.
Speaker 3: It's going to be very interesting see what matchup HAP
is next Saturday. Is b YU prepared to take on
Texas Tech. Game is going to be a ten am
Mountain time a twelve pm Eastern time for Parker and
folks and it's going to be eleven am Central time
down there in Lubbock for those that are going to
be going to the game or watching on TV. A
couple last thanks for Parker before I'll let you go.
Are their particular game situations third down, red zone, turnover
margins where bou consistely our performs are underperforms per the analytics.
Speaker 4: Yeah, actually was looking at a little bit today about
third down situations on offense and defense. So BYU is
about average in the country at the number of third
and lungs that they have faced, those those situations where
you know, potential drive killers, and was slightly above average
in third and long conversion rate compared to the nation.
The average for converting those third and seven plus yards
is about thirty one percent. BYU is about thirty five percent.
So some of that right there you can see what
you what you see with your eyes as well. That
Bachmeyer's running ability gets you the opportunity to either you know,
you can put defense is in a really bad spot
with BYU because you can say, hey, either you're going
to Mark Kingston, You're going to put another man back
there on on on Roberts and try to avoid them
getting open and or you're going to you know, stop
bear from running. So that kind of dual threat has
meant BYU has performed on those third and long situations
that I think are really valuable on the defensive side.
Speaker 5: This kind of stood out a little bit.
Speaker 4: BYU is about average at allowing third and lungs. They're
a little bit worse at third and long conversion allowed,
So you know, good better better than expected on offense,
a little a little worse than expected on defense when
they get into those situations that should kill drives. That
shows there's some opportunity for improvement on the defensive side.
If they can get off the field more often on
those third and long situations, that's only going to tilt
the scales in their favor more often. So those third
down situations I think are high leverage and really interesting
to look at how teams are doing in that. The
other one that I that stood out that I think
was really interesting was just you know, second and long
passing situations. How much are you rushing the ball and
how efficient are BYU is actually running the ball a
lot in those situations, And I think that speaks to
kind of the game state they want going back to identity.
They're okay running it on second and long, which is
the situation most teams want to pass in because they
are going to go for it on fourth down. They
feel like with their run game and with their quarterback mobility,
they can pick up yards there and set them up.
We saw them in the Utah game, for instance. How
many times in that game did BYU struggle on first down,
second and long and instead of going for the explosives,
instead of throwing past the sticks, and they said, hey,
we're going to set up our late down situation, and
they stole seven yards on second and long and then
we're able to get into a more favorable situation. That's
another high leverage situation where with BYU is outperforming.
Speaker 3: BAU is outperforming the numbers first of all, and that
it's backing it up per the data, because like you
mentioned the Utah game, I remember specifically three moments where
you know, the sack occurs or the ball is battered
down at the line of scrimmage, and there in the
second long and then they get third and short and
or they don't get the third down and they go
forward on fourth to convert and Kline Sataki said they're
going to be aggressive on fourth down when they need
to be. And I love the number offensively because it
backs it up. I think I've recalled bear bachmar. I
think is converted or scored a touchdown pass on third
and long at least four out of five times, and
that's either with touchdowns or converting a long third down.
So you definitely see that and the numbers are backing
it up, and your defensive numbers. The metrics BAU have struggled,
I think in the season of getting off the field
on third and long. I think they're getting better trending
in the right direction, but before early in the part
of the season that was definitely struggle. Teams were converting
third and nine's, third and elevens, even third and thirteen's,
and you're like, okay, started down.
Speaker 4: Still the problem which goes back to the mental fortitude
I mentioned earlier too.
Speaker 5: You know, teams are teams are.
Speaker 4: Frustrated when they get when they give up a big play,
and they're inclined to give up another one. B YU
has shown a really good discipline and saying, hey, fresh
set of downs, we're going to walk in and they're
going to do it. So all those things exactly kind
of what coach Kataki preaches and what people to put
on the field.
Speaker 5: Very ins I'll.
Speaker 3: Ask you this and we'll finish up on this kind
of I guess projecting where by you will finish it.
Speaker 1: I guess by the end of the season. Where do
you have b YU.
Speaker 3: I guess trend wise over the next two to three years,
if they keep up this current pace and where they
are now at they're in a conference, where are they
going to be analytically every year?
Speaker 1: What you say?
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I do say.
Speaker 4: I will say here I have them favored to go
about two and a half and one and a half, so,
you know, basically favored in two games for the rest
of the season as they face Texas Tech and TCU
and Cincinnati going down says some big matchups there. I
think having a young quarterback is good. One thing that
I'll be watching for b Yu'll sleeping out lose some
NFL talent on the defensive side and maybe some NFL
talent on the offensive side. These receivers as well, so
you know, development is always the name of the game
at the YU. How can they kick guys in and
build them up? Next man up is interesting. B YU
has shown that they, you know, can can recruit to
their identity and where they go. But they certainly have
the resources, as we've seen, to compete in the Big
twelve year over year and kind of sustain this. And
it's nice when you hear all the coaching hot search
stuff and look at all the coaching boards that Colonie
Sidaki's name does not come up because he's very you know,
he's perfect for the DYU job and clearly someone who's
committed to it. And so I think b YU you know,
did a great job two years ago, kind of had
the collapse last year, did a great job of finding
ways to win even if they weren't as talented or
weren't as solid on both sides of the ball.
Speaker 5: And this year could.
Speaker 4: Could very well be kind of a step towards establishing, Hey,
we've got three more years of Beart Bachmeyer. What is
this going to look like around him? How can we
move from upper middle class in the Big twelve to
nationally relevant. That's that's the big challenge for by U.
Speaker 3: That is definitely a big challengeje for the conference in general.
Once Oklahoma and Texas left, it's been a three to
four I think different winners of the conference championship the
last four to five seasons, so can be what you
put themselves in that they are definitely talented now getting
on the right side of that and recruiting and everything.
So we'll see what they do going forward, Parker. Before
I let you go, what's the best way our listeners
can support you? What you do and how you do it.
Speaker 4: Three things that I will plug. You can follow me
on Twitter, app, stats a war. You can check out
my website cfbdashgraphs dot com where we have all the
play by play analytics, the team ratings, graphs, matchup tool,
all the fun stuff.
Speaker 5: Every time you ask me a question.
Speaker 4: Today I went to the website and looked up data
so you guys can look at all that. The third
thing is cfbtransfer market dot Com is the project where
I have created an interface for us to put open source,
crowdsource evaluations on what we think players are getting in
the red shoot at share era, what we say their worth,
so you can look at talent, understand who might be transferring,
who might be a highly valued player and kind of player.
On with that, so stats some more on Twitter, CFB
Dashgraphs dot com for stats, CFB transfer market dot com
for player evaluations.
Speaker 5: Check me out here.
Speaker 3: CFB transfer market dot com. You don't want to miss it,
as well as CBF graphics dot com. And then you
got to go follow him on X guys, Parker Fleming
at stats O war on X as well. Don't leave
him out there. Give him some love, Show him some love.
He does all their work.
Speaker 1: Parker.
Speaker 3: Thanks for your time today. We'll catch up with you
in the next couple of weeks. Is the Big twelve
season winds down?
Speaker 5: Sounds great man, Thanks so much.
Speaker 1: Of course that was Parker Flimming.
Speaker 3: And let's talk about STATS segment as relyed from our
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