1 00:00:08,519 --> 00:00:12,000 Speaker 1: Good afternoon. You're listening to Gambling with an Edge. 2 00:00:12,359 --> 00:00:16,280 Speaker 2: Now Here are your hosts, Bob Dancer and Richard Munchkin. 3 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:20,399 Speaker 3: Hey everybody, and welcome. It's been quite a while since 4 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,960 our last episode, but I am happy to be back 5 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:28,399 and I am here today with Elihu Feistel, and we 6 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:31,399 are here to talk about his new book, Beyond the 7 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:36,320 Odds and whatever other topics we end up talking about. 8 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:39,079 So elahu, welcome to Gambling with an Edge. 9 00:00:39,439 --> 00:00:41,840 Speaker 2: Hey, thanks for having me. It's always fun. You never 10 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:44,280 know where you'll end up talking, so sometimes you get 11 00:00:44,399 --> 00:00:46,719 right off the road, which is fascinating. 12 00:00:47,799 --> 00:00:49,560 Speaker 3: I know we are going to get a lot of 13 00:00:49,640 --> 00:00:52,679 questions about where is Bob, And. 14 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:56,479 Speaker 1: To tell you the truth, I don't know where Bob is. 15 00:00:57,399 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 3: I kept trying to get a hold of him to 16 00:00:59,799 --> 00:01:04,200 this episode, and but I never heard back. So but 17 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:07,560 I wanted to talk to you about the new book, 18 00:01:07,599 --> 00:01:11,000 Beyond the Odds, and I have a lot of questions because, 19 00:01:11,239 --> 00:01:15,560 as some of our listeners know and maybe others do not, 20 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:19,239 I got dragged out of retirement about a year ago 21 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,959 by my longtime partner and convinced to get into sports betting. 22 00:01:24,599 --> 00:01:28,280 So I've been betting sports full time for the last year, 23 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:32,239 and and so the book I thought was came at 24 00:01:32,239 --> 00:01:36,640 a great time for me. And so that's what we're 25 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:40,079 going to talk about. You had said at the beginning 26 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:44,079 that this is not really a book for beginners. 27 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 2: No, it it starts. It's more built for people who 28 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:50,840 already win and are probably members of an existing syndicate. 29 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:54,319 If you're a beginner, Conquering Risk is a much better 30 00:01:54,359 --> 00:01:58,640 book to teach some basic basic analytics. This is more 31 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:01,439 of a way if you have the tools to win, 32 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:05,439 how you can win more or price more markets or 33 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:06,239 get more volume. 34 00:02:07,239 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, I would agree with that, and I so I 35 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:14,479 want to start with well, actually chapter one has a 36 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:19,919 very interesting title, which is exploiting efficient market theory without handicapping? 37 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:22,960 So can we talk about that? Can we talk about 38 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:26,520 efficient market theory? And then how can we beat that 39 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:27,560 without handicapping? 40 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 2: Yes? Go ahead, ask. 41 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:34,400 Speaker 3: Well, okay, why don't you we start with what is 42 00:02:34,439 --> 00:02:35,520 efficient market theory? 43 00:02:35,759 --> 00:02:40,159 Speaker 2: All right? Efficient market theory is the idea that closing 44 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:43,879 lines are generally pretty accurate. So, for example, if an 45 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:47,080 NFL line closes at seven, you know, have a seven 46 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:50,120 point favorite, then pretty close to half the time that 47 00:02:50,159 --> 00:02:54,319 team is going to cover seven points, you know, excluding pushes, 48 00:02:54,759 --> 00:02:56,599 half the time, the dog will cover half the time, 49 00:02:56,680 --> 00:03:00,599 the favor will cover, and even if it hasn't done 50 00:03:00,599 --> 00:03:02,800 that in the past, going forward, it will. And that's 51 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:06,680 a very critical concept because twenty years ago you could 52 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:09,199 get value betting all the dogs. You know, if you 53 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:11,240 bet every big dog in the NFL more than twenty 54 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:13,599 years ago, you I thin think they ust to hit 55 00:03:13,599 --> 00:03:17,960 at a fifty five percent rate. But as time has evolved, 56 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:21,199 the markets have become more efficient and strategies that used 57 00:03:21,199 --> 00:03:23,319 to work in the past no longer. Will. You know, 58 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,919 Monday night bet the dog and under doesn't work anymore. 59 00:03:27,759 --> 00:03:29,319 You know the Super Bowl that used to build the 60 00:03:29,319 --> 00:03:32,719 middle of Super Bowl pretty consistently, where you bet the 61 00:03:33,159 --> 00:03:35,159 dog on the spread and the favorite on the money 62 00:03:35,199 --> 00:03:38,280 line and play for the middle. But all these things, 63 00:03:38,639 --> 00:03:42,000 as more and more smart money comes, the closing lines 64 00:03:42,159 --> 00:03:45,560 and the markets become more efficient. And the way answer 65 00:03:45,639 --> 00:03:48,280 key works it relies on this. So, just like with 66 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:52,520 black soles relying on the prices of the commodity being 67 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:55,680 correct to price youre derivatives, answer key assumes that the 68 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:58,360 price of the parent line, the game spread in the 69 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:02,199 game total are correct fifty to fifty markets, and then 70 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:05,479 you use that with the pass results to price derivatives. 71 00:04:08,319 --> 00:04:12,879 Speaker 3: Okay, so this is true for the NFL, and I 72 00:04:12,879 --> 00:04:17,160 would assume for Major League Baseball is another one that 73 00:04:17,759 --> 00:04:19,879 I would think is pretty efficient. 74 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:22,079 Speaker 1: But what about other sports? 75 00:04:22,639 --> 00:04:27,079 Speaker 2: So the idea generally works in all sports college basketball, 76 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:31,360 college football, NFL, NBA, but you have it is best 77 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:36,879 when there are not team specific tendencies. So, for example, 78 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:39,040 in baseball, if you try to use answer key to 79 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:42,079 price a first inning prom for example, will there be 80 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:44,480 a run score in the first inning, that is a 81 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:49,399 horrible matchup, a horrible use of answer key, because that 82 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:53,839 is not a good The money line for the game 83 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:56,720 and the total for the game are not very predictive 84 00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:58,160 of if they'll be a run in the first inning. 85 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:01,000 You need to price that. You need to say, well, 86 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:04,680 how good is their starting pitcher? How good you are 87 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:06,879 the first three batters on each side? Are they home 88 00:05:06,959 --> 00:05:10,680 run hitters? Or is it a small ball lineup? So 89 00:05:10,759 --> 00:05:13,879 in some cases it's bad. Another case where it doesn't 90 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:18,079 work terribly well is in NBA because the NBA the 91 00:05:18,079 --> 00:05:21,079 teams will run different lineups. Actually, I knew this was 92 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:24,879 a problem abnormally distributed. Pointed this out why it didn't 93 00:05:24,879 --> 00:05:28,680 work in NBA, and that's you know, a seven point 94 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:31,160 favorite has a different lineup that may run at different 95 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:33,120 times of the game, so not all seven point favorites 96 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:38,439 are the same. Whereas in football, especially in the NFL, 97 00:05:38,519 --> 00:05:40,519 you can pretty much say all seven point favorites on 98 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:44,120 a total forty five are pretty similar. Their distribution of 99 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:46,959 scoring is going to be very similar. Not perfect, but 100 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:48,279 good enough to beat the markets. 101 00:05:49,759 --> 00:05:54,360 Speaker 3: So kind of the first thing that people find when 102 00:05:54,399 --> 00:05:58,600 they're getting into sports betting is top down betting, which 103 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:02,879 is all so trying to exploit this idea of the 104 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:08,959 efficient market by grabbing lines that haven't moved yet at 105 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:13,560 some books, right, But what you're talking about really is 106 00:06:13,759 --> 00:06:20,680 more thinking a level deeper about what is some other 107 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:23,560 thing that is affected by this that maybe the book 108 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,560 is not pricing correctly. 109 00:06:27,399 --> 00:06:30,639 Speaker 2: Yeah, so most sports books use charts that are outdated, 110 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:34,240 like they had some person who just looked at it 111 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:37,879 and made a guess. For example, when you look at 112 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:42,800 NFL money lines, there's a chart that says seven point favorite, 113 00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:45,600 here's the two money lines, and the charts don't even 114 00:06:45,639 --> 00:06:49,279 look at totals and anyone who's looked at NFL money 115 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:52,560 lines with you know, fairly closely will see that if 116 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:54,759 you have a seven point favorite, that's going to be 117 00:06:54,759 --> 00:06:56,439 a bigger favorite on the money line with a low 118 00:06:56,480 --> 00:07:00,160 total and a high total. Same thing in NBA. Ten 119 00:07:00,199 --> 00:07:02,959 point difference on an NBA total makes a very substantial 120 00:07:02,959 --> 00:07:05,879 difference on the money line, so you may find spots. 121 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:07,959 In fact, I think I have a couple bets tonight 122 00:07:07,959 --> 00:07:09,399 where I'm gonna end up betting the dog on the 123 00:07:09,399 --> 00:07:10,839 money line if I can get a good price. 124 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:17,680 Speaker 3: So we are recording this on Monday the twenty third. 125 00:07:18,279 --> 00:07:20,920 So are we talking about the the NFL game tonight? 126 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:24,279 Speaker 2: Yeah, they are actually two Monday nine games tonight. And 127 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:29,720 I just now, anytime now, anytime I announce something i'm betting, 128 00:07:29,759 --> 00:07:32,759 it almost always loses. So I'll have to make sure 129 00:07:32,839 --> 00:07:35,319 no one is able to bet this until after it's played. 130 00:07:35,879 --> 00:07:37,240 But let's see. 131 00:07:37,319 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, I won't release this until until you've already lost. 132 00:07:41,279 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 2: Yes, so I see that if you can get Jacksonville 133 00:07:45,759 --> 00:07:48,199 at plus two twenty three, I think that's cheap because 134 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:50,959 the fair price should be about two to one. And 135 00:07:51,079 --> 00:07:54,759 same thing with Washington getting Washington at three hundred, and 136 00:07:54,759 --> 00:07:59,199 it should be about two seventy. So it's it's surprising 137 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:02,759 that even on NFL, money lines are not very efficient. 138 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,720 So the spreads and totals are extremely efficient, and the 139 00:08:06,759 --> 00:08:08,720 best way to look at the efficiency is to look 140 00:08:08,759 --> 00:08:11,600 at how much can you bet in one click, and 141 00:08:11,639 --> 00:08:13,360 if it's a big number, it's going to be efficient. 142 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:16,759 And I'm just going to log into bookmaker and see 143 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:20,079 what their limits are for NFL just for a comparison 144 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:23,399 of money lines to spreads and totals. Yeah, we go 145 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:28,720 to NFL right now. If I want to bet the spread, 146 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:31,879 I can bet Jacksonville plus five and a half of 147 00:08:32,039 --> 00:08:34,879 risking one hundred and eleven thousand. If I want to 148 00:08:34,879 --> 00:08:38,720 bet the total, I can bet twenty two thousand. If 149 00:08:38,759 --> 00:08:41,200 I want to bet the money line, I can still 150 00:08:41,279 --> 00:08:46,639 risk twenty thousand. So that's so the money lines are 151 00:08:46,639 --> 00:08:49,600 about as efficient as totals, but the money line as 152 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:53,360 a derivative using the spread and the total, I think 153 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:57,120 is beatable in pretty much all sports for the main 154 00:08:57,159 --> 00:08:58,279 game money lines. 155 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 3: And I would assume that NFL is better at it 156 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:06,519 than other sports, but it's still not as good as 157 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:07,919 it should be. 158 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:12,639 Speaker 2: I agree NFL derivatives are generally a lot better priced 159 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:16,240 than college football derivatives. For example, if I'm going to 160 00:09:16,279 --> 00:09:18,200 bet the NFL stuff, I want it either bet it 161 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:21,159 early in the day or but the day before, whereas 162 00:09:21,519 --> 00:09:24,840 college football you can probably beat it thirty minutes to post. 163 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:31,720 Speaker 3: Sometimes I see you know people there are it seems 164 00:09:31,759 --> 00:09:36,480 like a lot of people are originating college football, especially totals, 165 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:41,600 and it's it's really hard to know what's going on 166 00:09:41,799 --> 00:09:44,159 when they often do not agree with each other. 167 00:09:44,759 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 2: And there's so much rampant manipulation as well. So you 168 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:51,759 have groups. You have groups that want to bet a 169 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:55,919 number and they'll push it point two points so that 170 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:58,320 they could play the paper heads that are following the 171 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:03,440 market makers. So they like over forty four, so they 172 00:10:03,519 --> 00:10:06,080 vetted down to forty three and then bet over forty three, 173 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:08,039 which they like even more. So they pay a few 174 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:11,159 thousand and juice to move Bookmaker and Pinnacle and circa. 175 00:10:11,639 --> 00:10:14,240 And they come smashing back for ten times as much, 176 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:17,720 ten times as much equity. So they if they paid 177 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:19,399 one thousand in juice, they may want to bet one 178 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:23,279 hundred thousands of the paper heads on it. Wow, And 179 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:25,600 then so they paid, they paid a one percent tax 180 00:10:25,639 --> 00:10:28,200 to get a half point or full point. So in 181 00:10:28,279 --> 00:10:30,919 terms of an investment on the return, it makes perfect 182 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:31,600 sense to do it. 183 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:34,559 Speaker 3: Of course it does. But so here's one thing I 184 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:39,919 don't understand. So you will see that Pinnacle and Bookmaker 185 00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:43,480 have have moved down to forty three, but all of 186 00:10:43,519 --> 00:10:47,679 the wreck books here in the US, you know, Fan Duel, DraftKings, 187 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:51,480 all of those guys are still at forty four, and they're. 188 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:53,799 Speaker 2: Not taking sharp bets and the sharp markets don't really 189 00:10:53,799 --> 00:10:57,320 apply to them. So this is another problem with the 190 00:10:57,399 --> 00:11:00,919 legalized industry when they call her, and this creates all 191 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:03,360 kinds of headaches for them as well. When you kick 192 00:11:03,399 --> 00:11:06,200 out anyone with the pulse, how can you tell what 193 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:08,879 the right number is? You can copy the off shores, 194 00:11:08,919 --> 00:11:14,000 but the offshores might might be getting manipulated, so they don't. 195 00:11:13,639 --> 00:11:16,279 Speaker 1: Seem to be copying the off shores. 196 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:18,759 Speaker 2: Yeah, so they have to choose do we copy blindly 197 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:21,519 or do we wait for bets to come in. And 198 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:25,000 if you don't have a known group of smart players 199 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:27,320 to watch, you don't know what the right side is. 200 00:11:28,159 --> 00:11:30,799 So these books, like you know, Pinnacle and Bookmaker and 201 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:34,519 even Circa, they take a bet and they know how 202 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:37,240 smart their players are. And when you have hundreds of 203 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:39,240 smart people telling you what the right answer is, it's 204 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:42,039 pretty easy to get to the right answer quickly or 205 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:43,919 to choose to be off of it if you want. 206 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:45,720 You know, there's situations when you may not want to 207 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:50,440 deal the best number. But the draftings, especially when these 208 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:52,399 draftings as an example, because they're easy to beat up on. 209 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:56,039 If they lower your limit, everyone's limits to thirty eight dollars, 210 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:59,120 who can beat them? Then all they're left with are 211 00:11:59,639 --> 00:12:02,200 people who they don't they haven't profiled, that they haven't 212 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:07,399 recognized as winners, plus the squares. So they throw a 213 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:09,919 number up, they don't know if it's good. They don't 214 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:12,320 care if it's good, because the losing players are going 215 00:12:12,360 --> 00:12:13,919 to lose no matter what number you put up, and 216 00:12:13,919 --> 00:12:17,240 anyone who wins they'll toss. But the risk to that 217 00:12:17,399 --> 00:12:19,600 is when you have people coming in that are unassessed 218 00:12:19,799 --> 00:12:21,759 and they can come in and actually abuse your bad lines. 219 00:12:22,879 --> 00:12:26,360 Speaker 3: Well, and not only that, the sharp players can move 220 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:29,600 your lines in the wrong direction for thirty eight dollars. 221 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:32,840 Speaker 2: Well, generally, I don't think they're going to move off 222 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:36,120 of any thirty eight dollar bets. If if I were 223 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:38,840 running DraftKings and I saw one hundred guys with thirty 224 00:12:38,879 --> 00:12:41,519 eight dollars limits are betting me, I'd say I better 225 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:45,159 cut their limits down to two dollars. 226 00:12:45,519 --> 00:12:46,679 Speaker 1: Don't give them ideas. 227 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, so you brought up the word collared, So can 228 00:12:52,879 --> 00:12:54,799 you explain what you mean by collard? 229 00:12:55,639 --> 00:13:00,360 Speaker 2: So normally a market making book has house limits that 230 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:03,279 everyone can bet. So I just read you earlier the 231 00:13:03,279 --> 00:13:06,080 house limits for tonight's Monday night football games a bookmaker, 232 00:13:06,759 --> 00:13:10,480 everyone can bet. Going back to the spread, any person 233 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:13,879 can bet to win one hundred thousand on tonight's NFL games. 234 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:18,039 If you are Billy Walters, if you are a great winner, 235 00:13:18,039 --> 00:13:20,279 if you're Floyd Madweather, whoever you are, you're going to 236 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:23,320 have at least those house limits of one hundred thousand dollars. 237 00:13:23,639 --> 00:13:26,440 And if you're up a million dollars against them, you're 238 00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:28,919 still gonna have limits of one hundred thousand dollars. And 239 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:32,279 because these limits are big, every smart person knows that 240 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:35,320 they can bet here, and they can bet as probably 241 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:38,159 as much as they want to eat here. When a 242 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:43,039 book collers you, they are making it creating an inefficiency 243 00:13:43,039 --> 00:13:45,120 in the market by lowering how much you can bet. 244 00:13:45,799 --> 00:13:49,279 So DraftKings might take one hundred thousand from known losers, 245 00:13:49,919 --> 00:13:52,919 but if you have a precluded to win, they made lawyer. 246 00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:55,679 I used thirty eight dollars because that's my limit on 247 00:13:55,720 --> 00:14:00,320 the Super Bowl last year. So any you know people 248 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:03,799 one hundred thousand, these smart people can bet thirty eight dollars. 249 00:14:04,639 --> 00:14:07,159 So in fact, you see a lot on Twitter one 250 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:10,639 of the ways you can recognize losing players as they 251 00:14:10,799 --> 00:14:12,240 post big bets at DraftKings. 252 00:14:15,919 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 3: And you also talk about these auto movers. Yes, so 253 00:14:21,879 --> 00:14:25,679 this is a bot right that utters aligned. 254 00:14:25,399 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 2: An algorithm run by a market making sports book, and 255 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:32,120 its purpose is to prevent them from taking two bets 256 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:35,480 at the same price from a smart person. So if 257 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:37,879 you wanted to bet Jacksonville plus five and a half 258 00:14:38,039 --> 00:14:40,480 minus one eleven, and say you want you wanted to 259 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:43,639 get half a million down, if you bet that first 260 00:14:43,679 --> 00:14:46,360 one hundred thousand and your account's profile, that's going to 261 00:14:46,399 --> 00:14:49,279 move that number. It's going to automatically change, and on 262 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:52,080 a super liquid market it might move four cents. Maybe 263 00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:54,759 it move from minus one eleven to minus one fifteen. 264 00:14:55,399 --> 00:14:57,480 That would be consistent with the twenty percent auto move 265 00:14:58,320 --> 00:14:59,919 and what that does is if I want to bet 266 00:15:00,159 --> 00:15:02,159 or I have to pay a higher price, I can't 267 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:04,320 just repeat bet and quickly get in a half a 268 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:08,000 million at once. And pretty much at least all the 269 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:11,320 offshore market makers use this in circa since they don't 270 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:13,519 take you know, automatic I don't think they let you 271 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:16,639 re bet without at least adjusting the line, so they 272 00:15:16,639 --> 00:15:18,600 have to do their banially without an auto move. But 273 00:15:18,639 --> 00:15:21,200 it's still the same idea that if a smart player 274 00:15:21,279 --> 00:15:23,600 is firing into you, you don't want to give them 275 00:15:23,639 --> 00:15:25,440 the same price twice. They have to pay a penalty 276 00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:26,559 for every successive bet. 277 00:15:27,879 --> 00:15:31,159 Speaker 3: So how can the sharp player move the book maker 278 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:34,000 and Pinnacle line? If they're taking one hundred thousand on 279 00:15:34,039 --> 00:15:37,720 the game, how can they move it for only, you know, 280 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:39,120 a few thousand dollars? 281 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 2: And they can't move it on game day. It has 282 00:15:41,039 --> 00:15:43,799 to be before game day. So the earlier it is 283 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:47,759 in the week, the lower the limits are. The spread 284 00:15:47,759 --> 00:15:51,720 limits might be five thousand on Sunday night and the 285 00:15:51,799 --> 00:15:54,519 total might just be a couple thousand, so it's much 286 00:15:54,559 --> 00:15:56,360 cheaper to move it on a Sunday night or even 287 00:15:56,399 --> 00:15:59,000 a Monday than it is on game day, and the 288 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:02,799 college football limits are much lower than the NFL. Let's see, 289 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:05,399 if we're dealing Monday, we're always I'm not gonna see 290 00:16:05,399 --> 00:16:09,399 what they have right now. So looking at the Army 291 00:16:09,399 --> 00:16:15,919 Temple game three days away, they're taking three thousand on 292 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:24,639 the side, a thousand on a total, and well up 293 00:16:24,639 --> 00:16:27,080 to a base you of a thousand on the money line. 294 00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:32,600 So if you're paying basically five percent of that is 295 00:16:32,639 --> 00:16:35,240 a tax if you put in a if you put 296 00:16:35,279 --> 00:16:37,879 in a so you put in a three thousand dollars bet, 297 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:39,600 you're paying one hundred and fifty and juice to get 298 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:43,240 one auto move. So let's say you do that twice 299 00:16:43,279 --> 00:16:46,519 at Bookmaker twice, at Pinnacle twice, at bet online, you're 300 00:16:46,519 --> 00:16:49,120 paying a thousand and juice, and if you have a 301 00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:51,799 sharp acount, you might move the price. 302 00:16:54,879 --> 00:16:56,679 Speaker 3: I was at bet bash. You were at bet bats, 303 00:16:56,840 --> 00:17:03,960 and I don't know if you attended. Well, maybe I 304 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:05,279 shouldn't talk about that. 305 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:08,400 Speaker 2: I think you could talk I think anything about bashlist 306 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:10,519 fairy game here. I don't think Spanky would mind. 307 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 3: Okay, well it was it was Spanky who basically said, 308 00:17:14,799 --> 00:17:16,960 you know, I mean the way he sounded, he sounded 309 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:20,799 like a ninja like that he likes to bet, you know, 310 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:24,480 an hour before a game and not move the market. 311 00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:28,559 Speaker 2: Well, yes, and that's correct. So there's there's two styles. 312 00:17:28,759 --> 00:17:31,440 If you bet into a market maker, if you're betting 313 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:33,799 a lot into these books, you will move the line. 314 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:37,599 If you bet into the paper heads, the paper heads 315 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:41,319 are following the market makers, that doesn't tend to move 316 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:44,079 the line nearly as much. And if you have one 317 00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:46,960 hundred accounts at these paper heads and each of them 318 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:50,519 takes five hundred dollars, then you can get you know, 319 00:17:50,559 --> 00:17:52,920 you can get fifty thousand without doing anything to the market. 320 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:56,799 I see, or I mean, some of these books will move, 321 00:17:56,839 --> 00:17:58,960 and some of them might actually lay a little bit off, 322 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:01,640 but in general most of them don't. 323 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:04,839 Speaker 1: But the other thing, the other. 324 00:18:06,759 --> 00:18:12,119 Speaker 3: Thing that always perplexed me was when the Pinnacle and 325 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:16,759 book maker are below the market of everybody else. There 326 00:18:16,799 --> 00:18:20,200 are other sharp people who know that. Why aren't they 327 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:23,640 going and betting that when they know that that must 328 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:24,079 be good? 329 00:18:24,759 --> 00:18:28,440 Speaker 2: Well are you saying so? Maybe I don't understand your example. 330 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:32,599 Let's say the market makers are at three and the 331 00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:35,759 US legal are at four. What do you contend to 332 00:18:35,799 --> 00:18:37,240 sharp players to do in that situation. 333 00:18:38,279 --> 00:18:41,519 Speaker 3: Well, let's make it better than that. Let's let's say 334 00:18:41,559 --> 00:18:47,799 that that the recreational books are at three and a 335 00:18:47,799 --> 00:18:50,319 half and Pinnacle and book Maker are at two and 336 00:18:50,319 --> 00:18:50,720 a half. 337 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:58,880 Speaker 2: Okay, now I correct. 338 00:18:57,799 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 1: The top the top down. 339 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:03,200 Speaker 3: People are gonna say, oh, I should take this three 340 00:19:03,279 --> 00:19:06,000 and a half because Pinnacle and book Maker are sharp. 341 00:19:06,519 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 1: But I would think the sharp. 342 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:12,920 Speaker 3: Guys would know no, that that's actually the good side 343 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,480 is to bet the two and a half. 344 00:19:17,279 --> 00:19:20,319 Speaker 2: So in that case, if the market makers were two 345 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:23,079 and a half, yeah, if you believe that, If you 346 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:25,839 believe those are the market makers, that's my source of truth. 347 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:28,160 And I would say the true number, the fifty to 348 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:30,799 fifty numbers two and a half. And if you bet 349 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:33,240 either side of two and a half laying juice, you 350 00:19:33,279 --> 00:19:33,960 have a bad bet. 351 00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:38,079 Speaker 1: So what I'm saying is. 352 00:19:39,799 --> 00:19:44,279 Speaker 3: The the sharp guys, no, we'll look at that and 353 00:19:44,319 --> 00:19:48,759 say the line is really three and that's been manipulated 354 00:19:48,839 --> 00:19:51,359 down to two and a half because sharp guys are 355 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:54,000 busy betting it at paper heads. 356 00:19:54,279 --> 00:20:01,359 Speaker 2: Okay, maybe that's you have much more situational I think 357 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,599 to predict, it's very difficult to predict when manipulation is happening. 358 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:07,240 You know, when you see a move early, it might 359 00:20:07,279 --> 00:20:10,839 be a sharp bet or it might be a manipulation. 360 00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:14,480 And another one of the games that happens, Especially with totals, 361 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:18,000 you have competing groups that are trying to figure out 362 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:20,160 you have. So you see, you have three differn groups 363 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:22,000 and they all have their opinion on what the total is. 364 00:20:22,799 --> 00:20:27,720 Generally they mostly agree. So if Group AA starts manipulating 365 00:20:27,759 --> 00:20:30,400 down they's at one, They're going to push it down 366 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:32,519 to one thirty nine because I think the role number 367 00:20:32,559 --> 00:20:34,960 is one forty three. They bet it down to one 368 00:20:35,039 --> 00:20:38,279 forty you know, one thirty nine. Another group sees it, no, 369 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:41,039 they because they think it's one forty four. They know 370 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:43,519 it's a manipulation and they can come in and front 371 00:20:43,559 --> 00:20:46,799 run the other group and feed off of their manipulation 372 00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:48,279 before the original group gets it. 373 00:20:48,279 --> 00:20:51,079 Speaker 1: In, right. That's exactly what I'm getting at. 374 00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:54,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, if you have a strong you can't if you're 375 00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:57,359 going to front run manipulation, you have to have your 376 00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:59,599 own opinion. You can't just rely on the market because 377 00:20:59,599 --> 00:21:01,640 you don't know if that move is a legit move 378 00:21:01,839 --> 00:21:03,200 or if it's a manipulation move. 379 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,519 Speaker 1: Got it? Got it now? 380 00:21:06,559 --> 00:21:09,319 Speaker 2: I don't have opinions. I have no opinions, so I 381 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:12,680 can't spot manipulation. I can't tell it's manipulation until the 382 00:21:12,759 --> 00:21:13,200 end of the day. 383 00:21:14,079 --> 00:21:16,960 Speaker 3: Well, wait, you must have opinions because you're betting, so 384 00:21:17,079 --> 00:21:18,559 you I have no opinions. 385 00:21:18,599 --> 00:21:22,599 Speaker 2: I have no handicapping. It's just efficient market theory. So 386 00:21:24,559 --> 00:21:25,759 I do zero handicapping. 387 00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 1: Well, I would call. 388 00:21:33,839 --> 00:21:38,759 Speaker 3: Obtaining the right price of a derivative better price than 389 00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:42,799 the books. I would call that handicapping. 390 00:21:43,079 --> 00:21:46,519 Speaker 2: Okay, that's just the math problem. I view handicapping as 391 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:51,319 dissecting personal team information and status to try to come 392 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:53,680 up with an opinion that's other than fifty to fifty 393 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:54,240 on something. 394 00:21:55,400 --> 00:22:00,880 Speaker 1: Gotcha? Okay, So that that sort of brings us to. 395 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:08,799 Speaker 3: One very good place to look for these things is 396 00:22:09,599 --> 00:22:16,960 correlated parlays. Yes, and the casinos both love correlated parlays 397 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:20,519 and hate them. I think they they love the dumb 398 00:22:20,519 --> 00:22:25,319 players who bet same game parlays where they're paying a 399 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:30,160 ton of Jews, but hate it when sharp players sort 400 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:33,759 of figure out the same game parlay that is correlated 401 00:22:33,839 --> 00:22:35,440 that they didn't realize was correlates. 402 00:22:35,559 --> 00:22:38,599 Speaker 2: Yeah, and there's actually two different ways to exploit same 403 00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:41,960 game parlays. One is you find a pair of bets 404 00:22:42,519 --> 00:22:46,720 where there's simply no correlation. There's no correlation priced into it. 405 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:49,039 And an example of that would be when a book 406 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:52,599 lets you bet the favorite in the over. The closer 407 00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:54,200 those two numbers are to each other, the greater the 408 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,400 correlation will be. If you're betting minus forty and over 409 00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:00,640 forty four, the correlation is almost one hundred percent. If 410 00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:04,920 you're betting minus three, you know, over forty two, maybe 411 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,759 there's a five percent correlation. There's still a small correlation, 412 00:23:07,839 --> 00:23:10,680 but not enough to overcome the juice. So if a book, 413 00:23:10,759 --> 00:23:13,440 so a book has to guess where do I want 414 00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:15,039 to take it? I want to take I want to 415 00:23:15,079 --> 00:23:17,000 take it more than you know, three and forty two. Yeah, 416 00:23:17,039 --> 00:23:20,200 I want him to parley that forty and forty four. 417 00:23:20,279 --> 00:23:23,599 I don't somewhere in the middle, because every time they 418 00:23:23,599 --> 00:23:26,960 reject a bet, they're losing money. So should they take 419 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:31,039 six and forty four? Yeah? Should they take ten and 420 00:23:31,079 --> 00:23:34,359 forty four? Yeah? Should they take fifteen and forty four? 421 00:23:35,599 --> 00:23:37,480 And it's just a math problem, which is, you know, 422 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:40,359 how strong is a correlation? So the strongest way a 423 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:42,279 book can do is to actually just use a figure 424 00:23:42,279 --> 00:23:45,000 out what the correlation is in price the four parlis correctly, 425 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:49,200 but in most cases sportsbooks don't have the math teams 426 00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,920 in place to do this correctly for every possible wager. 427 00:23:52,599 --> 00:23:58,200 Why what Why? So to get it's not enough to 428 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:02,799 get a data scientist. You have to get number crunchers 429 00:24:03,079 --> 00:24:05,839 that also have expertise in a sport and also have 430 00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:09,920 expertise in betting. If you try to use data scientists 431 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:13,759 in this industry that are missing a component, you can 432 00:24:13,799 --> 00:24:16,200 have some disasters. You can just you can get you 433 00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:18,599 can come with something worse than old school book making. 434 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:23,079 And remember, I think Canter Gaming they got a bunch 435 00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:25,720 of wall I believe it was Canter who had a 436 00:24:25,759 --> 00:24:28,799 bunch of Wall Street quants come in and try to 437 00:24:28,799 --> 00:24:31,359 price in game, and they built their own model and 438 00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:34,519 they I think they call it Midas or something very pompous, 439 00:24:34,759 --> 00:24:37,839 and they just got utterly buried. And it's not the 440 00:24:37,839 --> 00:24:41,599 first time I've seen quants just get destroyed. So it's 441 00:24:42,799 --> 00:24:45,440 if you don't have all three and they don't come cheaply. 442 00:24:45,759 --> 00:24:49,000 To get good mathematicians and sports betting, you need, like 443 00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,200 I said, a variety of skills, and they're not very common. 444 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:56,400 Speaker 3: So yeah, and they they could they could just go 445 00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,960 out and and bet themselves and and maybe make more 446 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:01,960 more money than the book could afford to pay them. 447 00:25:02,319 --> 00:25:05,519 Speaker 2: Yeah. Yes, So you have a situation where either they 448 00:25:05,559 --> 00:25:07,720 don't try to price a correlation and we're just gonna 449 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,160 assume it's zero no correlation for everything, and we're just 450 00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:13,240 gonna cut off at a certain point, or you see, 451 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:16,279 I'm gonna call what's called bad correlation math. If you 452 00:25:16,319 --> 00:25:20,839 look at Draftking same game parlays, they overcharge. They assume 453 00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:23,279 every when they're you're betting things that are positively correlated, 454 00:25:23,319 --> 00:25:26,400 they're gonna pay you less. They drastically cut the payout, 455 00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:30,319 whereas they don't increase the pad enough for negatively correlated events. 456 00:25:30,519 --> 00:25:33,400 So they just you know, it's it's safe to do 457 00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:37,640 it that way, but it's not very consumer friendly. And 458 00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:39,920 then you have some teams that do actually a pretty 459 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:43,079 good job of pricing their their same game products. So 460 00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:46,160 you know, I would say FanDuel does probably a better 461 00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:48,839 than average job on their same game parties of actually 462 00:25:48,839 --> 00:25:52,640 paying what the true probabilities are. But again, it takes 463 00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:55,079 a lot of money and commitment to trying to do 464 00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,039 that well. 465 00:25:57,039 --> 00:25:59,839 Speaker 3: It's very encouraging to hear that so many of them 466 00:25:59,839 --> 00:26:05,880 are so bad at it. Yes, okay, But so now 467 00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:09,119 I want to talk about something that is the bane 468 00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:13,359 of everyone's existence, I think, and that is adverse selection. 469 00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,519 Speaker 1: Can we start with what is adverse selection? 470 00:26:18,839 --> 00:26:23,599 Speaker 2: Adverse selection is you're looking for good plays, and things 471 00:26:23,599 --> 00:26:28,519 that stand out are often as often from just noise 472 00:26:28,599 --> 00:26:31,720 as they are a successful strategy. So if I look 473 00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:33,759 in the past and I say I think I have 474 00:26:33,799 --> 00:26:36,279 an approach that in the past has done well, and 475 00:26:36,319 --> 00:26:39,039 then you carry that forward to the future, suddenly it 476 00:26:39,079 --> 00:26:43,599 doesn't work as well because it's you're confusing noise with predictability. 477 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,720 So if you aren't very careful in your methodologies, you're 478 00:26:47,759 --> 00:26:49,519 going to find things that may have worn in the 479 00:26:49,559 --> 00:26:52,279 past that have no prayer of whinning going forward and 480 00:26:52,319 --> 00:26:54,680 then lose horribly. I don't know if that's what you're 481 00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:55,559 getting at. 482 00:26:56,000 --> 00:27:01,039 Speaker 3: Well, it's that, but I'm also in there somewhere. Is 483 00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:03,920 also this term market resistance. 484 00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 2: Okay, all right, market resistance. Yes, the more you can bet, 485 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:09,839 the more likely you are to be wrong. 486 00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:15,960 Speaker 1: Right, So what do you do well? 487 00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:19,839 Speaker 2: You pay attention? Well, one way to measure to assess 488 00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:21,960 if you have if you think you're gonna win going forward, 489 00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,599 So is to look at your closing line value. If 490 00:27:24,599 --> 00:27:27,880 you're making a good play in GM, more often than not, 491 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,880 the market will move your way. If I think minus 492 00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:32,920 three is a one to ten is a good play, 493 00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:35,799 If it really is a good play, and this set 494 00:27:35,839 --> 00:27:38,400 of plays is good for the long term, it's very 495 00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:40,880 likely to close at minus three minus one fifteen or 496 00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:44,759 minus three minus one twenty. But if I'm you know, 497 00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:47,200 in real time, as I'm betting this stuff and tracking 498 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,640 it week to week, I see that these plays at 499 00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,519 minus three are one ten are closing pretty close to 500 00:27:53,519 --> 00:27:56,079 the same price I bet them. Then, even if I 501 00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:58,759 were winning, that's a pretty pretty good warning sign that 502 00:27:58,799 --> 00:27:59,960 I'm not going to win going forward. 503 00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:05,359 Speaker 3: What about so when you have a market that's really 504 00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:11,319 efficient like the NFL or MLB, great, what about a 505 00:28:11,559 --> 00:28:17,200 market that maybe is not as efficient, like MMA or 506 00:28:17,279 --> 00:28:18,200 something like that. 507 00:28:19,079 --> 00:28:21,559 Speaker 1: Where so here here's an example. 508 00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:26,240 Speaker 3: Let's say that you have five MMA bets and you 509 00:28:26,279 --> 00:28:28,119 don't want to bet them in the beginning of the week, 510 00:28:28,839 --> 00:28:33,880 right and now it's you know, Friday, and you're ready 511 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:36,440 to bet, and you look and like four out of 512 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,839 the five, the line has moved the way you thought 513 00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:42,960 it should, and one of them has gone. Instead of 514 00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,680 minus one ten, it's now plus one twenty five. 515 00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:47,839 Speaker 2: The market gave you the middle finger. 516 00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:51,240 Speaker 3: Yes, so do you still bet it? Or do you 517 00:28:51,319 --> 00:28:54,599 say my model's better than their model, because that's not 518 00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:55,960 a really efficient market. 519 00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:01,000 Speaker 2: That's that's a very tough question, and that I guess 520 00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:04,640 that depends on how your model works and how confident 521 00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:08,799 you are in it. Now. Some people, some of the 522 00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:12,880 MMA modelers, are very They know more than the market. 523 00:29:13,279 --> 00:29:14,920 They know how the training camps are going, they know 524 00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:18,599 about their injuries, they know about tendencies, they have fight stats, 525 00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,799 and these people can probably again ignore the market. But 526 00:29:23,359 --> 00:29:25,880 MMA is a weird market, and that it doesn't appear 527 00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:28,839 as efficient as a lot of the other stuff. Right, 528 00:29:29,039 --> 00:29:31,440 there are people who can win an MMA who don't 529 00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:34,039 care about the market. They don't care about the price. 530 00:29:34,359 --> 00:29:36,480 They just know the right side and they know that 531 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:40,680 some of these markets are horribly mispriced. Yeah, so it's 532 00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:44,319 MMA is kind of is a weird. It's weird compared 533 00:29:44,319 --> 00:29:46,920 to the stuff I do. I wouldn't try using answer 534 00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:48,640 key on on MMA. 535 00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:55,440 Speaker 3: Actually, So we've heard this term a lot already answer key. 536 00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:56,640 What is answer key? 537 00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:00,720 Speaker 2: Answer key is an algorithm to generate a SAMP based 538 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,759 on a parent price, and that you can then ask 539 00:30:03,839 --> 00:30:06,160 questions from the You can answer questions by looking at 540 00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:11,400 that sample. For example, tonight's NFL game, If I'm gonna 541 00:30:11,559 --> 00:30:18,400 use answer key on let's see. So right now Cincinnati 542 00:30:18,519 --> 00:30:22,200 is playing Washington tonight. Cincinnati is a seven point favorite 543 00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:25,759 minus one twenty four take back one oh four, and 544 00:30:25,799 --> 00:30:29,480 the total is forty six. So I could generate a sample, well, 545 00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:32,640 you know, four or five hundred games that best describe 546 00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:37,400 that matchup, and in that sample, I would have minus 547 00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:41,200 seven covering about fifty four percent and plus seven covering 548 00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,960 about forty six percent. Again just because of the implied 549 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:46,440 win rates of the money lines, and in that sample, 550 00:30:47,799 --> 00:30:49,559 I would want half the games to go over forty 551 00:30:49,599 --> 00:30:52,359 six have to go under, and I would want the 552 00:30:52,559 --> 00:30:55,400 mean spreads to be in the mean total to be 553 00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:58,240 similar for the sample. So I generate this. You generate 554 00:30:58,279 --> 00:31:01,519 a sample, and then you can add ask questions about 555 00:31:01,519 --> 00:31:04,880 the game. So, in that game, what are the odds 556 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:07,480 of a team scoring three times in a row? And 557 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:11,200 I could look at my data set and count and 558 00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:13,920 get a pretty good. Guess what is the fair first 559 00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:16,799 half line? Where is the fair first half total? What's 560 00:31:16,799 --> 00:31:20,279 the average team total? So you can use your sample 561 00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:23,880 to price just about any derivative. And as long as 562 00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:28,559 the game is good for lining up with answer key, 563 00:31:28,839 --> 00:31:31,400 it works very well. If it works especially well in 564 00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:35,119 football because you have non normal distributions. It works less 565 00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:40,319 well in college basketball, but football is really the strongest area. 566 00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:49,079 Speaker 3: Okay, So let's talking about maintaining your accounts. I mean, 567 00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,000 this is I think one of the best chapters in 568 00:31:52,039 --> 00:31:56,240 the book and applies to anybody who knows nothing about math, 569 00:31:56,319 --> 00:31:59,240 even right. I mean, this is what everyone cares about 570 00:31:59,359 --> 00:32:01,039 is how do I not get collared? 571 00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:05,559 Speaker 2: And this is such a problem for me that I 572 00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:09,160 mostly use movers now, so I don't use many of 573 00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:12,079 my own accounts. I can bet into any market maker, 574 00:32:12,799 --> 00:32:15,440 which I generally don't want to do, And then I 575 00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:18,319 have other people who I just say, you know, when 576 00:32:18,319 --> 00:32:20,200 you're working with a mover, you say here's what I want, 577 00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,599 here's how much I want, and they just try to 578 00:32:22,599 --> 00:32:23,759 get it for you, and if they fill it, you 579 00:32:23,799 --> 00:32:26,559 get the whole amount, or you may get less. Usually 580 00:32:26,559 --> 00:32:28,720 they're going to use prices that are available at Buckeye 581 00:32:28,799 --> 00:32:33,279 or Metallic and uh, it's it's it's a different world 582 00:32:33,319 --> 00:32:37,319 from the solo operator, like how many how many people 583 00:32:37,319 --> 00:32:38,960 are you working with in your or you have a 584 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:40,440 group or you mostly solo? 585 00:32:41,319 --> 00:32:43,559 Speaker 1: I have a group, Yeah, okay, And. 586 00:32:44,319 --> 00:32:48,680 Speaker 2: Well it's most operate. Most individuals are betting into their 587 00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:51,119 betting into the draftings. They're betting into Caesars and then 588 00:32:51,119 --> 00:32:53,880 maybe betting into Bavada and some of the offstores. But 589 00:32:54,279 --> 00:32:56,599 most of those recreational books, you only get one bite 590 00:32:56,599 --> 00:33:00,359 at the apple. So when you're at a different level, 591 00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,119 you're not worried about the w rec books. You're not 592 00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:05,440 trying to beat. You're not trying to beat the these 593 00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:07,559 soft books. You're actually trying to hit bigger you know, 594 00:33:07,599 --> 00:33:11,240 somewhat bigger markets. But you know, as I discussed in 595 00:33:11,279 --> 00:33:12,880 the book, the best way to keep accounts is to 596 00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:17,279 lose money. Well, yes, so if you lose money and 597 00:33:17,319 --> 00:33:19,480 get no closing line value, every book in the world 598 00:33:19,599 --> 00:33:22,680 is going to love you. So how do you generate 599 00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:26,720 a plus EV strategy that has the best of it 600 00:33:26,799 --> 00:33:30,119 long term but can look horrible short term? And that's 601 00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:32,319 you know, one of the ways to do that is 602 00:33:32,319 --> 00:33:37,039 is high variance strategies, so you're gonna lose early or 603 00:33:37,079 --> 00:33:39,640 you're gonna blow it up. And if you blow it up, okay, 604 00:33:39,839 --> 00:33:41,200 or you may lose early, you blow it up and 605 00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:46,039 then blow it up again. So right, parlays are a 606 00:33:46,039 --> 00:33:50,720 good way, whether they're correlated or round robins of other plays. 607 00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:56,079 The books are getting resistant to the round robins. A 608 00:33:56,119 --> 00:33:58,720 couple of years ago, when I first started it, I 609 00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,759 think they were laughing at me, and they were, you know, 610 00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:04,519 just giving me higher limits because I was doing it. Uh, 611 00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,160 you can still do it to a degree, but it's 612 00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:10,480 not quite the open season it was. 613 00:34:12,599 --> 00:34:15,719 Speaker 1: Yeah, So did I hear you? Right? 614 00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:19,519 Speaker 3: You are not trying to bet into the recreational books 615 00:34:19,559 --> 00:34:23,599 like Draft Kings and Fan Duel and right, not just 616 00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,199 because you can't bet enough or. 617 00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:31,800 Speaker 2: Uh well one, I okay, I'm basically collared everywhere for 618 00:34:32,039 --> 00:34:34,960 in my accounts my own name. I don't. But you 619 00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:38,760 have a moving for you, I don't. I personally don't bear, 620 00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:42,880 I don't multi account. The movers think it's so much 621 00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:46,199 easier to bet into buckeye skins and metallic skins. That 622 00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:51,360 is the legals. Uh, It's it's kind of an interesting 623 00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:53,719 problem that the legals are causing for themselves. They're help 624 00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:57,239 they're helping the college bookies by banning everyone. 625 00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:05,639 Speaker 3: Right, yeah, okay, anything that you think we haven't covered 626 00:35:05,679 --> 00:35:09,519 that I should be asking that, I'm forgetting about. 627 00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:11,800 Speaker 2: Well, it's your show. 628 00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:16,559 Speaker 3: I oh, well, you know, I guess you know you 629 00:35:16,639 --> 00:35:20,320 do talk about abusing the bonuses, so I guess we 630 00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:25,599 should cover that a little bit with these you know bonuses, Right, 631 00:35:25,679 --> 00:35:29,320 you want to bet them on long shots. But aren't 632 00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:32,800 the casinos sort of smart enough to know that that 633 00:35:33,079 --> 00:35:34,840 people who bet them on long shots? 634 00:35:35,199 --> 00:35:38,440 Speaker 2: I don't know if they're smart enough to know that. 635 00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:41,199 What you have seen is the behavior of the legal 636 00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:45,360 sportsbooks has been changing, so they're offering smaller and smaller. 637 00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:47,960 They're trying to offer bonuses that are less lucrative to 638 00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:52,440 professional players. So if you're a professional player, the bigger 639 00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:55,480 the bonus, the better. And you ever bet Rivers and 640 00:35:55,559 --> 00:35:58,880 Caesars both had five thousand dollars risk free bets. So 641 00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:01,000 if you give me a risk free bet for five thousand, 642 00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:04,079 that's worth just as much as twenty six hundred cast 643 00:36:04,119 --> 00:36:07,119 for me pretty easily. What you're seeing now is much 644 00:36:07,199 --> 00:36:12,000 smaller amounts two hundred dollars or bet five dollars and 645 00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,880 get two hundred dollars in free bets. So they're looking 646 00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:18,079 at it from a cost per acquisition. If I can 647 00:36:18,159 --> 00:36:19,920 get a person by giving him two hundred dollars in 648 00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:22,559 free stuff, I spend some money for advertising. I spent 649 00:36:22,639 --> 00:36:25,199 two hundred to bring him in the door, and that's much. 650 00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:28,039 And you're less likely to get a professional player doing 651 00:36:28,039 --> 00:36:30,320 it that way than you are with the five thousand dollars. 652 00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:33,239 So if you get the five thousand dollars bonus, you 653 00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:37,079 pay twenty six hundred dollars to acquire a vampire who's 654 00:36:37,079 --> 00:36:38,000 going to suck your blood out. 655 00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:40,920 Speaker 3: You know, if you want to squeeze out some extra 656 00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:45,280 ev and you bet on a longer shot. Do the 657 00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:47,239 casinos recognize that? 658 00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:52,159 Speaker 2: Do they? So? The most I don't know how how 659 00:36:52,199 --> 00:36:55,840 closely the US books look at bonuses, but the offshores 660 00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:58,800 they look for something that's There's there's two behaviors you 661 00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:02,000 see from professional players with bonusing. One is you see 662 00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:05,119 them playing the long shot. Two as you see them 663 00:37:05,159 --> 00:37:08,239 going all in. So say they with the with the 664 00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:09,800 offshorees general, you don't have a risk free bet. You 665 00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:11,639 have what's called a free play. You don't have to 666 00:37:11,679 --> 00:37:14,360 lose that first bet to get the free bet. So 667 00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:17,159 if you say you send one thousand dollars and you 668 00:37:16,559 --> 00:37:19,079 get you have a thousand dollars deposit plus one thousand 669 00:37:19,119 --> 00:37:22,760 dollars free play. What you'll often see the professional players 670 00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:24,639 do is they will bet both on the same play, 671 00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:28,360 so that if they lose, they lose their first bet 672 00:37:28,679 --> 00:37:31,519 on a long shot, they lose their deposit, they lose 673 00:37:31,559 --> 00:37:34,800 their free play, and now they have no rollover to meet. 674 00:37:35,119 --> 00:37:37,559 And by finding a way to evade the rollover, that's 675 00:37:37,559 --> 00:37:40,239 how you break the bonuses. And books are catching on 676 00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:43,480 to this. This is why you're again seeing the a 677 00:37:43,519 --> 00:37:47,039 lot of the bonusing, a lot of weirdness in the 678 00:37:47,039 --> 00:37:50,159 way they're handling bonuses. Levada has a rule that you 679 00:37:50,159 --> 00:37:52,119 can't bet more than ten percent of your bonus amount 680 00:37:52,199 --> 00:37:54,599 on any play, and if you do, they just I 681 00:37:54,599 --> 00:37:58,920 think they're conface getting balances. And wow, I think bet 682 00:37:59,039 --> 00:38:00,880 us has a rule that you know, no more than 683 00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:03,159 ten percent or deposit can count towards any rouleover. 684 00:38:04,039 --> 00:38:07,159 Speaker 3: Well that us also has a rule that you can't 685 00:38:07,199 --> 00:38:09,559 bet anything higher than plus one point forty. 686 00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:12,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think Ben online has that has a rule, 687 00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:15,559 so that's similar. So the idea of capping where you 688 00:38:15,599 --> 00:38:18,000 can bet a free play is to minimize how much equity. 689 00:38:18,639 --> 00:38:21,639 You know, your average players, your normal players are going 690 00:38:21,679 --> 00:38:24,440 to bet minus one twenty plus one twenty in that range. 691 00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:26,840 They're not looking to you know, it's just it's a gamble. 692 00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:30,440 Whereas the you know, the math nerds were coming after 693 00:38:30,559 --> 00:38:31,719 with all our calculators. 694 00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:37,519 Speaker 1: Yeah, what is breakthrough theory. 695 00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:41,719 Speaker 2: Breakthrough theory is a way to bet more. The idea is, 696 00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:43,239 if you have an edge, how do I get as 697 00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:47,400 much down on it as possible? And if you have 698 00:38:47,559 --> 00:38:50,360 if you're better at pricing something, you want to come 699 00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:53,280 at it from every possible way you can. That means 700 00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:56,159 you may want to price multiple markets. You may want 701 00:38:56,360 --> 00:39:00,800 to include parlays, you may want to include teasers, party cards, 702 00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:03,480 even any way you can. You can come at it 703 00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:06,039 to get more than just you can't that you can 704 00:39:06,079 --> 00:39:09,280 on a straight bet. And this you know, round robins 705 00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:12,760 are most of the books still take eighteen round robins. 706 00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:14,679 You know, if you if you go to bet us 707 00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:17,639 still take an eighteen round robin. So they recently they 708 00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:21,039 recently cut my limits to twenty five grocery dollars on parlays. 709 00:39:22,679 --> 00:39:26,599 But if I put an eighteen round robin by threes, 710 00:39:27,519 --> 00:39:32,320 that's fifty six different bets, So you know, now you start, 711 00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:36,880 and so you start to get some volume down and 712 00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:39,480 every dollar bet, if you bet it by threes, is 713 00:39:39,519 --> 00:39:42,400 actually put into play three times. So if you if 714 00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:45,840 you risk a thousand dollars in a round robin by threes, 715 00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:50,719 you have the equivalent action of three thousand in at risk. 716 00:39:51,639 --> 00:39:53,960 So if I had eight teams, you know with a 717 00:39:54,079 --> 00:39:57,480 round robbin of one thousand dollars, that three thousand divided 718 00:39:57,480 --> 00:40:00,079 by eight, you know I have four hundred dollars or 719 00:40:00,119 --> 00:40:02,360 is that risk effective risk of the team even though 720 00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:06,320 my limits were twenty five rosary dollars. So you can 721 00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:08,239 do So you can do some, and if they don't 722 00:40:08,280 --> 00:40:11,400 limit you, or if they take higher ones, you can 723 00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:14,480 do a lot more. I think campy books taken by tens, 724 00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:19,119 drafting takes by twenty caesars, takes by twenty fives. So 725 00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:23,840 if you get an account that isn't limited, a twenty 726 00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:26,760 five team round robin by threes I think is twenty 727 00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:31,079 three hundred legs, so forty two dollars a leg gets 728 00:40:31,119 --> 00:40:33,000 you one hundred thousand dollars swing. 729 00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:38,000 Speaker 1: Wow. But I have to say this about Ron Robbins. 730 00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:41,960 Speaker 3: The record keeping is an incredible pain in the ass, 731 00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:46,840 and actually for me just the record keeping in general 732 00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:49,760 seems to be one of the most challenging parts of 733 00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:50,559 this business. 734 00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:53,400 Speaker 2: So there are two parts of the record keeping. There 735 00:40:53,559 --> 00:40:56,119 is making sure you don't over beet. That is, how 736 00:40:56,199 --> 00:40:58,280 much effective risk do I have on this? And then 737 00:40:58,320 --> 00:40:59,960 there's how much money did I make at the end. 738 00:41:00,039 --> 00:41:03,199 And of the two, making sure you don't over better, 739 00:41:03,199 --> 00:41:07,440 I think is much more important. So when my when 740 00:41:07,559 --> 00:41:10,760 my group and we're betting something, the way we notate 741 00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:13,880 a round robin is you select the plays, you say 742 00:41:14,199 --> 00:41:17,440 how much is that risk on the whole round robin? So, 743 00:41:17,559 --> 00:41:19,800 say if I have a one hundred thousand dollars round robin 744 00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:25,000 on twenty teams by threes, that would be a three 745 00:41:25,119 --> 00:41:27,760 hundred thousand at risk divided by twenty. I would trint 746 00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:29,840 that as a fifteen thousand dollars straight wage ring of 747 00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:35,199 those teams. So and then if I wanted more than fifteen, 748 00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:37,159 I would add it in. But that would be my 749 00:41:37,199 --> 00:41:40,000 starting point. And usually when we're if you're betting you 750 00:41:40,039 --> 00:41:43,440 want to hit, you do your round robins first, and 751 00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:46,199 so then then you fill up the remainder. Now you 752 00:41:46,199 --> 00:41:48,280 can get really convoluted if you bet a round robin 753 00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:50,119 and you either win a couple legs earlier or lose 754 00:41:50,159 --> 00:41:54,559 a couple legs early. So if I, for example, if 755 00:41:54,599 --> 00:41:56,639 you have a twenty team round robin and you lose 756 00:41:56,800 --> 00:42:00,199 four selections on Thursday and Friday, now you have have 757 00:42:00,679 --> 00:42:03,440 your effective act. Your effective risk went from fifteen thousand 758 00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:05,519 to a team to maybe ten. So you may have 759 00:42:05,519 --> 00:42:07,400 to say, oh, look, i'm short. I need to put 760 00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:09,639 in another round robin with the more stuff to get 761 00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:13,840 back to where I want to be. But there, yeah, 762 00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:17,280 go ahead, Well. 763 00:42:17,159 --> 00:42:20,599 Speaker 1: No, I'm just yeah, it's just the record keeping. 764 00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:24,599 Speaker 3: But a point you make in the book is that 765 00:42:25,519 --> 00:42:28,440 a lot of people are over betting and maybe not 766 00:42:28,679 --> 00:42:30,519 realizing that they're over betting. 767 00:42:31,679 --> 00:42:33,000 Speaker 2: No faster path to help. 768 00:42:36,199 --> 00:42:37,760 Speaker 1: How can they so? 769 00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:42,639 Speaker 3: Is it because they're overestimating their edge or or just 770 00:42:43,079 --> 00:42:43,960 not things? 771 00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:47,719 Speaker 2: One is they don't overestimate their edge, And two sometimes 772 00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:49,760 they just don't even think about it. They don't sit 773 00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:52,559 back and say, take a minute, what is the optimal 774 00:42:52,599 --> 00:42:55,199 amount for me to bet here? Given the risk I want. 775 00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:59,239 So if you have time to breathe, you say what 776 00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:03,280 Kelly frocks? And am I comfortable using? And this is 777 00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:07,440 this becomes a nothing question later if you keep winning, 778 00:43:07,559 --> 00:43:12,000 your money grows, Kelly becomes irrelevant in most cases, but 779 00:43:12,039 --> 00:43:15,599 it's very important early. And what having a fractional Kelly 780 00:43:15,639 --> 00:43:17,719 does is it it protects you from yourself and from 781 00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:21,320 your mistakes if you overestimate your edge or say you 782 00:43:21,360 --> 00:43:23,400 mess up. Have you ever doubled bet a game, bet 783 00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:24,599 twice as much as you intended to. 784 00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:30,800 Speaker 3: I haven't done that, but I've I've done other things 785 00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:33,239 where I realized after the fact ooh I think, I 786 00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:35,119 think I bet I've done that. 787 00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:38,159 Speaker 2: Have you bet something that was that had a correlation 788 00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:40,440 that you didn't think about? For example, if you bet 789 00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:43,360 a first half over and a first quarter over, then 790 00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:45,719 there might be a fifty percent correlation, and if you 791 00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:48,079 treated those as independent bets, you probably over bet. 792 00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:48,880 Speaker 1: Well. 793 00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:52,199 Speaker 3: The other thing that happens to me is I bet it, 794 00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:54,599 and my partners bet it, and then we go back 795 00:43:54,679 --> 00:43:58,320 and compare notes and realize, oh, you know, we we 796 00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:01,159 got more on this than we and then we go 797 00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:03,000 is it adverse selection? 798 00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:05,639 Speaker 2: Well? 799 00:44:05,679 --> 00:44:07,960 Speaker 1: Not only did we over bet, but maybe it's. 800 00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:10,280 Speaker 2: A better bet. So one thing, if you're if you 801 00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:13,679 have multiple people betting, I would strongly recommend it to 802 00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:17,880 use Google Drive. Google Drive so we have a Google Drive. 803 00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:21,559 We have every game, and generally we have a captain. 804 00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:24,280 So there's a person who's the captain on a weekend 805 00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,599 and they get they get to call all the shots, 806 00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:31,400 so no one bets unless the captain signs off or 807 00:44:31,440 --> 00:44:33,280 delegates a certain part of the card to them. 808 00:44:34,559 --> 00:44:34,920 Speaker 1: Yeah. 809 00:44:35,079 --> 00:44:39,320 Speaker 3: Well, what we learned from this is you have to 810 00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:44,000 attach an amount of risk for that one person too, 811 00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:48,400 because if you're sending it to three different people, yeah, 812 00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:51,679 you know, you can't give them all like the top 813 00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:55,360 end because they could all three fill it, and so 814 00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:58,000 you have to kind of make some decisions about I 815 00:44:58,039 --> 00:45:00,679 think this guy can get this much down and this 816 00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:02,159 guy can maybe get that much. 817 00:45:02,639 --> 00:45:05,280 Speaker 1: But yeah, it's a it's a juggling act. 818 00:45:06,199 --> 00:45:10,079 Speaker 3: This is in blackjack too, when you have a blackjack 819 00:45:10,119 --> 00:45:14,639 team and people are in different sometimes in different countries, 820 00:45:14,800 --> 00:45:17,599 and then they were ported back and three guys all 821 00:45:17,679 --> 00:45:20,800 lost on the same night and suddenly you. 822 00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:28,159 Speaker 2: Know your session bankroll is too small in that country. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, 823 00:45:28,199 --> 00:45:31,119 I've so Normally when I put in an order, I'll 824 00:45:31,119 --> 00:45:34,400 say I'll cap the amount this much up to this. 825 00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:36,960 Uh and if you if you know how much the 826 00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:39,480 sky can get, you can arrange it. And if you're 827 00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:43,559 not betting weird stuff, are you mainly betting size and totals? 828 00:45:46,199 --> 00:45:48,920 Speaker 3: We're betting weird stuff, I mean, but we're also betting 829 00:45:49,000 --> 00:45:49,880 sides and totals. 830 00:45:50,280 --> 00:45:53,559 Speaker 2: Well, betting weird stuff. I mean, I joke about betting 831 00:45:53,559 --> 00:45:56,960 team totals like FCS team totals. But man, you get 832 00:45:56,960 --> 00:45:59,920 these weird markets. It's just it's so much easier to 833 00:46:00,079 --> 00:46:02,840 and despite me losing every bit I've ever posted. 834 00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:08,400 Speaker 3: So yeah, we just have to look at your posts 835 00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:09,400 and bet the opposite. 836 00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:14,639 Speaker 2: Then yeah, that's it. That's all right. 837 00:46:14,719 --> 00:46:18,800 Speaker 3: Well great, I uh, this has been great, really informative 838 00:46:18,840 --> 00:46:19,119 for me. 839 00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:22,239 Speaker 1: I don't know about everybody else, but but I appreciate 840 00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:22,719 it a lot. 841 00:46:24,320 --> 00:46:28,519 Speaker 3: So yeah, any any final thoughts anything that that you 842 00:46:28,559 --> 00:46:30,039 want to leave our audience with. 843 00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:33,639 Speaker 2: Oh, I'm thinking about baccarat right now, so. 844 00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:36,920 Speaker 3: Okara, Oh well wait a minute, what are you thinking 845 00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:37,760 about baccarat? 846 00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:42,320 Speaker 2: I'm just wondering how much how much more tolerant the 847 00:46:42,639 --> 00:46:47,800 casinos are relative to blackjack on like the side bets. 848 00:46:50,119 --> 00:46:54,039 Speaker 3: Well, the problem with the side bets is it's kind 849 00:46:54,079 --> 00:46:57,079 of really obvious what you're doing. 850 00:46:57,079 --> 00:46:59,519 Speaker 2: And they still let you do it. 851 00:47:00,559 --> 00:47:03,239 Speaker 1: Well, yeah, that's true, that is true. 852 00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:06,679 Speaker 3: But you know, I have a good friend who was 853 00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:11,800 playing a side bet on Bakara and his BP was 854 00:47:11,880 --> 00:47:17,719 a particular Asian ethnicity, and when he would come over 855 00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:20,679 to bet, he was playing two tables at once, and 856 00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:23,239 when he would come over, he would talk to this 857 00:47:23,719 --> 00:47:27,800 girl on the table that was also of the same ethnicity, 858 00:47:28,519 --> 00:47:30,719 and when they barred him, they barred the girl and 859 00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:34,079 she was just she was just a djen you know, 860 00:47:34,159 --> 00:47:37,840 that happened to be, you know, and they put him 861 00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:41,559 together because they were from the same country, whereas the 862 00:47:41,599 --> 00:47:44,039 guy actually counting the side bet was a white guy. 863 00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:49,440 That's file so, but but I will say this, my 864 00:47:49,599 --> 00:47:53,559 experience is that anytime you move to a game other 865 00:47:53,639 --> 00:47:57,280 than blackjack, and even if you're on blackjack, if you're 866 00:47:57,320 --> 00:48:03,480 not counting cards, you get way more leeway then, you know. 867 00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:05,599 Speaker 1: And the other thing I would say is. 868 00:48:07,039 --> 00:48:10,960 Speaker 3: As you move away from Las Vegas, you know, the 869 00:48:11,119 --> 00:48:14,559 further away you get, the casino IQ goes down. 870 00:48:15,039 --> 00:48:16,199 Speaker 2: Considerably. Ye. 871 00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:23,400 Speaker 3: So, but yeah, Okra, it's a it's out there. 872 00:48:24,320 --> 00:48:27,960 Speaker 2: I was kind of shocked at the bank requirements to 873 00:48:28,039 --> 00:48:29,599 play Blazing sevens. 874 00:48:30,079 --> 00:48:34,159 Speaker 3: Oh yeah, yeah yeah, and it's such a boring play. 875 00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:38,679 Speaker 2: I mean you win one hand, like one side bed 876 00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:42,719 every four or five hours. Yeah, I mean yeah, but 877 00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:47,599 the I think one of my scouts reported hard rock 878 00:48:47,639 --> 00:48:50,559 Head has a five hundred dollar limit on it, so 879 00:48:50,679 --> 00:48:52,800 that's like one thousand dollars an hour game. If you 880 00:48:52,840 --> 00:48:55,880 can get heads up until they needcap you. 881 00:48:57,039 --> 00:48:59,679 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, you're You're better off building a bot and 882 00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:00,719 do it online. 883 00:49:00,920 --> 00:49:03,480 Speaker 1: You know, have a Bob does it for. 884 00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:05,880 Speaker 2: You can do it online. I couldn't know that. 885 00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:06,280 Speaker 1: I don't know. 886 00:49:06,320 --> 00:49:10,199 Speaker 3: I haven't scouted in years, but there used to be 887 00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:13,639 some you know, online live games that you know had 888 00:49:13,800 --> 00:49:15,000 side bets. 889 00:49:15,360 --> 00:49:18,440 Speaker 2: Oh wow, okay, yeah, well it's I ought to pick 890 00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:19,320 your brain more later. 891 00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:24,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, all right, Well, I guess that's it for today. 892 00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:24,719 Speaker 1: Again. 893 00:49:24,800 --> 00:49:28,800 Speaker 3: I want to thank you and that's it. So I'm 894 00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:30,519 not bob ed answers, so I'm not going to go 895 00:49:30,559 --> 00:49:32,599 tell everybody to hit lots of royal flushes. 896 00:49:33,079 --> 00:49:35,039 Speaker 1: Have a good day, everybody. Hey, thanks for having me 897 00:49:35,119 --> 00:49:38,760 Rich absolutely well, there you have it. 898 00:49:38,880 --> 00:49:42,719 Speaker 3: I want to thank Ela Hugh Foistel for being my 899 00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:45,559 guest today and remind you the book we were talking 900 00:49:45,599 --> 00:49:50,000 about is called Beyond the Odds, Efficient Market Theory and 901 00:49:50,119 --> 00:49:54,159 Tools of Warfare for the Modern Sports Better and his 902 00:49:54,239 --> 00:49:57,239 other book if you haven't read it, I also would 903 00:49:57,280 --> 00:50:02,760 recommend that it is called Conquering Attacking Wall Street and Vegas. 904 00:50:03,519 --> 00:50:07,360 So pick those two up and until next time. I 905 00:50:07,519 --> 00:50:08,360 will see you then