Speaker 1: CFL betting Blueprint. It's Week five, Andrew and Bobby. We're
gonna break things down. Let you guys know where we
think the lines are going to go. Maybe a little
bit of a recap of course of week four and
much much more. Bobby, how are you a good?
Speaker 2: Good? Things are getting back on.
Speaker 3: It's easy to end of losing streak when you bet
on both sides of the same game. So finished the
week pretty well and we're still still above water for
the year, even though we had had a really hot
start for week one and two.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wasn't too happy this weekend, so I'm going
to be I'm going to be battling it. This Week
five is going to be a big week for me.
Had a good start to the week. I'll tell you
what I mean, based on my season, Bobby, I should
be just betting on Thursdays. I think I might be
the best Thursday CFL guy this year. Just crushing you
with the player props or with the sides told, whatever
it might be. But you know, just a little bit
of suf Disappointed in some stuff I think, just wrong
side some stuff, unfortunate events. But we'll just do a
quick recap. We don't want to spend too much time
on it, because of course we will touch on teams
throughout the breakdown of Week five, but Winnipeg on Thursday
night they take care of Edmonton thirty six twenty three,
Hamilton Friday night thirty five seventeen over the Alouettes at home,
Saskatchewan thirty seven to eighteen victory at home over the
BC Lions, and the only road team to get a
win this week, as the Argos win twenty nine to sixteen.
They get their first victory of the season over the
Red Blacks. Just overall, we're going to talk about these
teams obviously when we do some breakdowns, but your thoughts
on this week, just any takeaways, any rants from you?
Speaker 3: Not really any rants, Like the only one we think
we were really surprised by it was Hamilton. There more
or less like how bad NBT looked. And all you
hear now is everybody shocked that backup quarterbacks are first off,
their shock they're playing, Whereas like last year, every week
we were telling we were the source for who was
going to start. Half the league had their backup quarterbacks
playing for a lot of weeks last year, and everybody's forgot,
but what we didn't think, Like even going into the season,
we thought, hey, there's actually a good group of backup
quarterbacks now, we didn't think they'd be this bad. We
didn't think Miss Soli would be this bad two games
in a row. We didn't think NBT would be as
bad as he was last week. We thought his first
action he got two weeks ago, it was just kind
of dinking and Duncan running.
Speaker 2: Out the clock.
Speaker 3: He didn't look good last week. So it kind of
looks like we're back to where we were, maybe not
as bad as where we were, where we're calling out
Shaye Patterson and Jake Doligala and I don't know, Tyrie
Adams might be walking through the door pretty soon in Autawa.
Speaker 1: The So.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got.
Speaker 3: I don't know these backup quarterbacks, it's not it's not
a new thing. That's why following the practice reports, having
a team where people actually go to practice, unlike Toronto Argonauts,
where there are four kilometers from the league head office
and nobody can go to practice, nobody knows where it is.
So it's good to follow those beat reporters and usually
who was ever getting the reps in practice is the
one who who starts all this garbage. Like we told you,
Jason Moss would toy and say, oh Davis, Alexandri didn't
didn't do any practice, but he might start. No, it's
not a thing in the CFL. It's just pathetic, stupid
old man mind games. Not that he's a stupid, pathetic
old man, but that's that's the kind of games they play.
Speaker 1: Well, you know, it's tough because first of all, we
talked I think we touched on it last week, a
little bit of the Luke Wilson stuff. I can't remember
how much you and I talked about this. Everything's been
so blended because.
Speaker 3: We've been Luke Wilson free. We've been Luke Wilson free
on this.
Speaker 1: We didn't touch on it. No, oh man, all right,
well I guess we could. But the thing is is
that so I got a response from him over the
weekend and I asked him, Hey, what's the deal with
the backups? What are your situation? And he replied to
me pretty much saying if I answer all right, you're
pretty much saying he has to keep his lip shut,
is what he said. And then somebody else responded saying,
is it because it's American d lineman against Canadian o alignment.
And then he said I have to keep my lip
shut or something like that. He pretty much answered the question.
But no matter what it is, the fact is, Bobby,
this is a concern for the league, no matter what
it is. Like, this is not you've taken away betting
for a second. This is a problem for developing and
growing the league. As people that talk about it weekly
on this show, that bet on it, that watch it,
It's like, look, how much like just in just different?
How much different the red block. If Drew Brown is
behind center. We haven't gotten to see him too much obviously,
but how much different that team they go out and
pick up those shiny new weapons and they like, imagine
if you're an Ottawa Red black wide receiver this week
or this past weekend, right like you've you've just like
you're running your route and you're thinking there's no shot
that I'm getting the ball. And that's frustrating, right Like
looking at some of these guys, and even Davis Alexander
to MBT, I mean, Davis Alexander just became a starting
quarterback this year for the Alouettes, but that drop off
was just so obvious for some of the games. And
then you touched on with Massoli and Rourke and let's
not forget I mean, you're the BC guy, you're there
in Vancouver. But from the outside perspective, it seems like
there's a lot of pressure on Rourke this year. You know,
VA's over there in Calgary. You've got Rourke that had
that you know, NFL couple of year tryout stuff, and
then now he came back. He kicked Rourke out of town,
and then he gets injured. Like if Massoli can't get
it done, once Rourke gets back, there's gonna be even
more pressure on it to be his team. So it's
just interesting, like it's it's too bad to see all
these injuries, but of course it's up to us to
handicap it. I did end up on the Alouettes. That
was a play. It was a free play. I was
blasting it everywhere. The way I looked at it was
it was kind of a sketchy line. It was kind
of a weird price. Hamilton was off a bye, but
that number, to me was too small. I just thought like, yeah,
I've got I get it. I get these spots. But
at the end, of the day. You're gonna still give
me minus two or two and a half on the owls.
I'll take that. I had BC plus five and a
half number I think closed like plus two. That one
didn't have a shot after the first half interception. We'll
we'll get to all kinds of stuff, But one thing
I wanted to mention here. I'm not gonna bring it up.
We got enough graphics we're gonna put on the screen.
But ATS records. This is something a lot of people
are talking about right now across the CFL, and if
you win the game, you're covering right now, Bobby, a
lot of it. For the East Montreal three and one
record three and one, ATS Hamilton one and two, record
one in two, HS Ottawa one and three, straight up
one in three HS Toronto one and three record you
guessed it, one in three AHS. So that's the East,
and then now here it is with the West Saskatchewan
four and oh record four and oh HS Winnipeg three
and oh record three and oh HS Calgary two and one.
Do you believe me when I'm telling you this? Right now,
every single team that has won has covered the points
spread so far this year. That is kind of unbelievable.
So who's messing up? Are the oddsmakers messing up? Are
we messing up by overthinking it? That's the crazy thing
at this point in time, and things are going to change.
That's why I wanted to bring it up here in
Week five. The team that has won the game has
covered all of these games so far. Bobby, I thought
it was a glitch. I was like, there's got to
be something wrong here with this web that I'm looking at.
I don't think it is, do you.
Speaker 3: I think it's just sixteen game sample size we're going with,
and event all it takes is two or three to
not cover, and then we're kind of right right back
where we should right. What's the stat for the team
that wins outright covers. It's like eighty eighty five percent
of the time or something like that. So I'm not
looking into it too much. I think a lot of
it has to do with these like we went into
the season thinking there was going to be like more parody,
and there hasn't been. Like the bad teams are bad,
whether it's been because of quarterbacks or because of well,
quarterback injuries or who they choose to start a quarterback.
Speaker 2: Right, So.
Speaker 3: I think that, hey, it's good for the it's good
for the squares, it's good for us. We need the
squares to stay in it to take advantage of the
numbers when they're out there. So yeah, I wouldn't read
too into too much into it. Yeah it is. It
is definitely interesting that the records are basically identical for
for the league, right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the only team, uh with a we got this
is crazy because this was only in Week one. Winnipeg
obviously want to know Ats as an underdog, that was
with Strevler, but Calgary too and o Ats as an underdog.
Every other team has a losing record Ats as a dog.
So uh, to your point, the reason why I'm bringing
this up isn't for us to say, hey, let's start
doing this. It's because, like you said, sometimes you want
to look towards the other way and be like, Okay,
people are going to start betting these inflated numbers, and
then we can look at betting underdogs. It's just a real,
real shame when you get an underdog at five and
a half, the line closes at two and it just
doesn't matter at all.
Speaker 3: That's why it it closed even lower like it was
like it was almost it was close to a pick
before they announced workout, right, Like I got Saskatchewan at
one five or one thirty five or something money line, right,
So yeah, yeah, they're like the CLV is. I think
the CLV is higher than ever this season, and it's
just it's not translating.
Speaker 1: But long term, that will lead us to success. Long term,
it will lead us to some success. All right, let's
get into Week five, Winnipeg visiting Calgary. We talked about
the ATS record of this Calgary Stampeters team. Curious to
see if I'll be what you think of this number
at plus three and a half as home dogs total
listed at fifty one and a half. Calgary strong underdogs
on the year, Winnipeg, as we know, strong ats overall
this season. It seems like the books haven't been able
to put a number up high enough for this team.
Here is this one of those spots where you look
and say, why is this number what it is? At
three and a half?
Speaker 2: Not really this one?
Speaker 3: Like I'm pretty high on both of these teams, and
you don't really want to overreact to Calgary they're off
a bye, but yeah, sure they they lost a game
to Ottawa, but the weather was brutal, the passing game
was eliminated, and they actually just lost because they couldn't
convert like goal line situations. So I wouldn't read too
much into into that last loss home dog, something you
always want to look at. But then like Winnipeg's still
like they're still the best team in the league despite
what people who don't have to back up their opinions say.
So I don't really see any value in this number,
Like it's even trending back to the three, and that's
exactly where I think it should be. Sometimes sometimes the
best team in the league only only lays a couple
of points on it's it's if you're going to go
up any further to a four or five, like on
the road, that's just no matter who it is, it
just seems like a lot, right, So you have to
account for home field, not just the crowd, but there's
travel involved too. It's a shorter week for the road team.
So yeah, I don't really have much on this to
say on this game, just because I think the line
is right where it should be.
Speaker 1: Shout out to Kevin. Kevin here a great spot for
Calgary here back to back home and off and bye, Kevin,
thanks for watching. We appreciate you. And you know, Bobby,
I'll tell you the thing is is that the thing
is these these bye weeks, if we look back, like
several years, they actually have been pretty good for teams overall.
And I kind of feel like I overlooked them early
in the season because I kept on saying, Oh, it
doesn't matter, it's early in the year, like some of
these spots are spots I look for in July or
I look for in August, you know. But at the
end of the day, like we know that sometimes that's
such a small league. We know what an extra week
of prep can do. And as much as you and
I joke around, sometimes we're messaging each other saying, like
what kind of boneheaded decision was that? Or what's the
game plan here for this team? If a team does
have an extra extended time to game plan for a
certain team, it can benefit them, and maybe it kind
of benefits them besides health wise earlier in the year
to get that extra week prep. They know who they're playing.
But Brady Alavara for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers like a
running machine. We've got, you know, just this team that's
looking good all around. And here's one angle I will
say though, is that they're coming off a game against
the Elks. And this is something that I use a
lot in the NHL, is you know, betting against the
team after they just kick the shit out of a
bad team. You get that false sense of security, false
sense of like happiness almost like oh, we're so good,
we just you know we Meanwhile, the Elks are giving
up thirty five on average a game. But the problem
is here is that I don't know if I want
to bet against Winnipeg. I don't know if I want
to wake up and say, hey, you know what, I
want to bet my money against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers
right now. As this team right now is three and
oh ats and they're putting up numbers consistently and they're
making it look easy. So I think it's a pass
for me right now. In this one, I might look
towards a Calgary team total closer to game day. A
lot of those team totals across most books will get
posted closer to game day, so we'll see. We'll see
what we see tomorrow. Maybe what goes live. I'm gonna
check live to see if anything's been posted as of
right now. Let's see if we can. Yeah, I don't
have anything, Bobby, but I might look towards a Calgary
team total. Their offense might show up. They might put
some points up on the board. But I don't really
want to. I don't really want to let lay it here,
or I don't want to really want to take any
points here at this one, just because Winnipeg is so dangerous.
I don't want to start my week off by hoping
that they have a slow start. Kevin says Calgary also
had some really bad variants, getting stopped at the goal
line three times versus Ottawa, their neutralized VA in the
past game last time out. Any thoughts on.
Speaker 3: That, No, they He's absolutely right, they played that correctly.
I think two of those goal lines were the result
of the same sort of goal line stop. So but
that's why I don't kick stupid field goals. You go
for it on third if you if you fail, you've
got them pinned on the two. You usually get the
ball back around midfield.
Speaker 2: You go again.
Speaker 3: So Calgary seems to be getting it this year in
terms of Winnipeg. Like, yeah, there three and zero against
the spread, and that's one with Chris Streveler, one against
the Lions where the offense didn't look that great, and
one last week where they kind of had a I
don't know, they spotted like they spotted a bunch of
points to the to the Elks, uh, and then still
covered the spread by almost double digits.
Speaker 2: Right, So.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm fine staying away this. Sometimes sometimes the best
bet you make is is is no bet, right, So
sometimes the line's right.
Speaker 1: Well, And one thing I was say that I've done
a lot this year, which you know, I think I've
done this and collected a lot of CLV as we've
talked about. But I've played a lot of games in advance,
a couple of days advance. Bobby, you might catch me.
Wait until game day a little bit more here this week.
We'll see what happens. I mean, you know, you don't
want to be getting the worst of the number by
any means. But I always talk about Jeff Dawson, who
I do a show with. He's mister team Totals. Him
and I do a lot of shows team totals during
the year in hockey. He's only bet team totals this
year in the CFL, you pick the winner that team
total is going over you know. You look at Winnipeg
last week, it was thirty and a half, thirty or
thirty and one and a half, Bobby, was what the
number was for them. You look at some of these
team Saskatchewan over BC like so many different games where
the team total is a spot and I understand that.
The way I'm looking at it is this. I don't
know if three and a half is enough to get
me interested in the Stamps, but if I can see
a team total that I'm comfortable enough with, then I'm
just cheering for them to get points and I don't
have to worry about their defense, and that makes me
feel good not having to worry about what they do
on one side of the ball. So that might be
one of my first client team total plays of the
week of the season. Excuse me is just look at
the Stamps to get some points up on the board.
But this next one Hamilton Toronto, shockingly enough. I mean again,
we haven't seen too much movement this week. Bobby, correct
me if I'm wrong here, but this one hasn't moved
too too much. This one's kind of the stench of
the week. I want to know your thoughts on it.
Speaker 3: This is wait till later in the week for the stench.
But this line it did open. What did this open at?
Like plus one and a half Hamilton. Now it's almost
basically had a pick right, So like Hamilton, Like, yeah,
I was on the wrong side of them last week
for sure, and they played one of the best games
I've seen them play in a long time. And it
was good for them to have that game against Montreal.
Even even your your boy Tim White, it seems like
he's got his talent back, so I can point out
when he drops the balls, but he actually I think
he had nine eight catches on nine targets something like that,
So Hamilton looks good. Toronto off a win, but that
win was was against Ottawa, and Ottawa I figured out
that Ottawa just just plays like they don't care or
they don't know what the score is, like they'll just
play football just to play it right, so they it
was kind of an easy game for Toronto. But even then,
like they had fourteen points from what side of a
sloop slooker or something yea like a special teamer who
had two touchdowns over two hundred yards in return yards
on those but aside from that, like they didn't really
put up much against Ottawa. I guess they didn't have to.
But it's not as impressive as a win as it
looks on paper, I guess, is what I'm saying. So, like,
Hamilton is getting healthier, especially in their secondary. They have
a few key guys who are doing full practice this week,
so I know it's like I think, I think Hamilton
should be favored, and I don't think many people should
be favored on the road in the CFL, at least
at the start of the season here, but they're like
they're facing Nick Arbuckle. It's a rivalry game on the road.
It's an hour up the road for them, right, So
this is the best they've looked in a long time.
I picked them up at plus one and a half.
I still like him at a pick here. I think
this is a If they lose by two special team touchdowns,
then so be it. But I think Hamilton looks good.
I'm buying into Hamilton. I wanted to buy into them
a little earlier in the year and got burned, But
I think this is a good spot for them.
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I just feel like There's two factors
to this game. There's the you know, a lot of
times across a lot of sports, you wait to see
when this team will get their first win, being Toronto, right,
and then it's the time to roll with them. But
at the end of the day, too though, you look
at the win that they collected and you have to
assess how much you care about that win, you know,
And that's the big thing, right, Like you look at
you know, you can look at what a team did,
or you can look at what their opponent did. I
like what you said there, Ottawa just plays football. They're
just out there playing like they to me, like they're
that game Toronto versus Ottawa was just a game of mistakes.
I mean, if we want to talk about the ugly
game of the week, that one didn't didn't look great.
You want to talk about the special teams and a
defensive player with he had a ninety yard return and
a one hundred and five yard return. I mean, that
guy just earned a contract in the CFL for the
next few years with just that game alone. I'd probably
say here with that one, Bobby. But at the end
of the day, one thing I've noticed is that Toronto
actually has done pretty good against the pass, and they
haven't done well really against the run. Hamilton, as we
all know, they're just a strict passing team. They do
have that running threat, but they're mostly just a passing team.
So I kind of worry about that a little bit.
But one thing I like about Hamilton, and actually Bo
Bannon was saying this to us a little bit as well,
But I think we noticed a correction in this in
the last week was that they're spreading the ball around
more like if we look at the if we look
at the game for Hamilton versus Montreal last week, some
of the stats here for Hamilton, how many guys caught
at least two balls one, two, three, four, five, six.
That's pretty good. I mean Tim White did get ten targets,
Like maybe they can give somebody else a couple more
of those. But you like to see a lot of
guys getting involved in the offense, if you know, we
can see certain guys mix it up, if we can
see bow Levi Mitchell changing things. No interceptions for Bo
against Montreal's defense. I know it was a tough go
for Montreal's offense, but he still looked pretty good against
their defense. I'm on the same page as you. I
like this number. I think Hamilton's better than what we've
seen so far this season. They're gonna get some confidence
off that, and they do have a good offense. I
don't think anybody could dispute their offense all year. I
think it's mostly just been their defense. And I think
it was that was it Hamilton versus Calgary earlier in
the year. I think I don't know if you were
on them as well I was on Hamilton. Yeah, I
think you were on them right. It was plus I
think I got like plus three and a half or
something like that, plus three and a half or plus
four and a half. And they're always giving themselves a chance.
I feel like, especially Ats wise, are always giving themselves
to self a chance. And in this one, I have
this one as a slight favorite for Hamilton. So I'm
right there with you. Plus one and a half on
the tie Cats that's in pocket, and I feel like
they get the job done on this one. At this point,
we have to we have to mark that win for
for Toronto more as just Hey, they played Ottawa and
you call me an Ottawa hater all you want a
lot of people out there. Shout out to Gay Moreenzi.
But without Drew Brown, they are a different, different team.
And Bobby, when I look at these backup quarterbacks they have,
how can I expect anything to change from one week
to the next. What are they going to do? Learn
how to throw twenty yard passes in five days? Because
if you're Geno Lewis and you're running a route, has
he has he gotten hit past the twenty yard mark
with a backup quarterback?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I wouldn't want to be a receiver on that
team for even like the past five years like they've had,
They've had no hope. They put out Caleb Evans there
for a season and a half.
Speaker 2: Don Davis like these.
Speaker 3: I don't know they You just wait for Drew Brown
to come back, and you hope that Hamilton slows down
because you know Toronto's going to get it together, so
they'll get it in the playoffs set and Otto one,
Hamilton will fight out for that for that last spot.
But yeah, it's sad situation in Ottawa. It's been sad
for a long time.
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's just I mean, it's such a difference
from Drew Brown and now I feel like I'm just
like the president of the Drew Brown fan club here,
because I'm just talking this guy up. But it's more
so like he's he can sling the ball, like the
guy can sling the ball. And a lot of people
said that based on last year's success and making a
playoff game, putting up points in the playoffs despite his
defense giving up a bunch of points, it gave him
confidence coming into this season to throw the ball deep
and take some shots downfield. And he's played like what
three quarters of football this season. Like that's just it's
tough to see a guy barely play that much. But
all right, moving on to the next one. Here looking
at BC and at the Alouettes Montreal in bounceback mode
minus four and a half here total forty eight and
a half against the BC Lions. Before we get into
the game, I want to ask your thoughts on Buck
Pierce so far as a coach of the BC lines.
I'm I'm a guy off a loss with them, so again,
you know my frustrations, but I just feel like this
guy was an OC with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, and
sometimes even as an OC with the Bombers, I was
frustrated with some play calls. Do you do you agree
with some of these play calls and some of these moves.
I mean, you're you're the guy that usually attacks coaches.
How about your own coach over there in BC.
Speaker 3: The one I the one I got to see once
a week in practice, right, So I don't know he was.
He was a good offensive coordinator in in Winnipeg. Like,
you can't really judge too much of what he's done
so far. He's had two games with Massoli, and Massoli's
curly lost lost the staff.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 3: The only thing that I really can't stand these coaches
for are the ones that go for these field goals
on the six and that seems to be almost everybody
in the league. Again, so I was hopeful in Week
one when when Buck Pierce was clearly going for it
on on third down goal line situations, and he seems
to I don't know if he got he's been burned
by it. He got burned a bunch of times. Luckily
they were playing Edmonton in Week one, so it wasn't
even a question. But he's gone back to these stupid
field goals. That's really my only criticism of him so far.
He can only Yeah, I'd like to comment here, Kevin's right,
like you can only do so much with with Jeremiah
Masoli out there. I'm thinking of a Casey Printer's quote
from from Hard Knocks the year he left the Lions
and went went to the Chiefs or something, and that's
basically what what Buck Pierce is doing out there while
Rourke is on the sidelines. So I I'll reserve judgment
is until until Roark comes back, because I've seen, I've
seen what the other options are. I've I've watched I
watched the other options for the past few years here
in BC, and I'm happy. If if I was a
big lines fan, I'd be much happier with Buck Pierce
than Rick Campbell making decisions win the game's on the line.
Speaker 1: Yeah, just to me, it's obviously the play that sticks
out to my head, and I know he was the
one that called it. Was that they go for a
shot to the end zone before half. Justin McGinnis catches it,
I'm all fired up and gets called for offside. He's
clearly offside. They run the ball the next play, Bobby,
and you know I was freaking out in our group
chat with me, you and Ian they run the ball.
I'm like, this is perfect. He's setting up for a
field goal, gonna be ten to nine going into the half.
He's like, no, no, no, let's take one more shot.
And it's not even a shot to the end zone.
It's a sideline play. So the guy had to throw
the ball like thirty yards to only gain like two
or three yards. So what was the point of that play?
And it ends up being a pick six to end
the half? And I just found that he called a
lot of the same plays that he would call with Rourke.
Am I wrong on that? Like? I feel like a
lot of the plays that he called I would be
okay if it was Rourke slinging the ball. Yeah, And
it wasn't much different than if it was Masoli or who.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And they did split reps like the entire week
in practice and maybe that's why, Like it wasn't one
hundred percent solely game plan, but yeah, that was that
wasn't great calling there, given the time left, Like even
if they did make that pass, maybe they were hoping
he'd get out of bounds and they get even then
he'd be out of bounds with like eight seconds left.
He get one more one more play there. It's probably
third down, isn't it. So yeah, yeah, that that wasn't great.
Speaker 1: But uh well, you're usually the guy that's against field goals,
but I think that might have been the one spot
you'd agree with me that just if.
Speaker 3: There's zero time left on the clock. Yeah, shield goals
are okay, there was a really good one. There was
a really good one last week that didn't burn your
You got burnt on that live over in Toronto where
they went for a field goal and missed it at
the end of the game trying to get a field
point differential.
Speaker 1: Don't remind me. Don't remind me, all right. So it
looks like MBT is going to be the guy. Davis
Alexander will most likely be out back to back weeks.
Montreal's back at home. We know how lethal of a
team they are at home, and I got to give
credit Hamilton does seem to play better at home themselves.
How do you feel here BC going on the road,
They're gonna be feeling some pressure here to have a
good game. But minus four and a half MBT once
again here? What do you think bounce back mode for
the Alps?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I definitely think that's a factor. Here, like they
laid an egg against Hamilton there, so like you said, like,
doesn't look like Alexander's back, and that was kind of
that was basically confirmed yesterday at practice. That's why the
lines moved down to like four and a half here.
For the Lions, it's a question too, Like Rourke took
most of the reps on Day one yesterday, but he
did that last week too, So I don't know if
they're going to rush him back for like as country
trip against the Alouettes, who's are like one of the
best defenses in the league. If if they do start
work like this number is gonna come down more if
they If they don't, it's gonna be it's probably gonna
be Chase Bryce. And this number is gonna go back
up over a touchdown. So either way, like I'm I
like the LS in either situation. I like the LS
if it's like a three and a half against Rourke.
I like the LS if it's if you can grab
a four and a half five six against Chase Bryce.
So it's more of just like wait, wait for the
news to break and and I we went through this
last week with Saskatchewan BC. Every time there was a
change in quarterback news. It took like an hour or
two hours for the line to adjust. Like there are
some stale books like Pinnacle and Move right Away, fine,
but most of these other offshores, like they they hold
that number, they don't take money seriously at these books.
So I just wait for the news out of BC
lines practice. And again it's not just quarterback issues for BC,
Like their O line is beat up. They got over
half of their starting O line is out. Could say
probably the same for their D line too, So a
lot of a lot of a lot of kind of replacements,
a lot of Canadians getting called in here, and and
that's what Luke Wilson's going to point out. But I'll
also mention BC. I think I think they only had
one Canadian on their O line and work Work got
injured pretty quickly this year too, So I don't know
if that's the entire reason. And there are people that
know a lot more than me that about the racial
rule here and and I kind of tend to agree
with them that it is a good thing. Otherwise you're
just going to get a revolving door of Americans coming
in for a week at a time until they find
the right guy. So there's no continuity continuity in that
the racial rule.
Speaker 2: I'm a supporter of it.
Speaker 1: So well, we haven't seen this BC team cover road game,
and we haven't seen them cover as a dog. We're
only in week five, but I'm right there with you.
But I think what I'm going to do, Bobby is
look towards the first half with the Montreal Alouettes. This
is a team that comes out firing at home. This
is an NBT that although he doesn't really seem to
show a lot of emotion, he seemed like pretty pissed
off with his performance and kind of how he played.
I think this team's going to game plan well against
the BC Lions, and I think for BC, we're probably
gonna see a little more of a conservative effort. And
you mentioned the injuries. I think that this is going
to be a start. The Montreal is going to be
really strong in we can get that under two and
a half, get them to win by a field goal
to start the game in the first two quarters. That's
kind of where I'm looking here. Until Rourke is back,
I don't want anything to do with this BC team,
And at the end of the day, I know it
is MBT, but it's NBT and bounce back mode off.
The Alouettes loss as well, let's just not blame the
whole game on NBT as well. Wasn't a great game
for the Montreal defense either. I think this team plays
their best football when they're at home. This is a
team that can bounce back. And also where was Phil Pott?
Where were some of these receivers and they didn't really
have their best outing. I think we'll see them bounce
back and do very well. Also, this Lions team against
the run, if I can just pull it up here,
rushing yards allowed per game one hundred and forty rushing
yards allowed per game, dead last in the whole CFL.
And if you remember that quote that I mentioned in
Week one, it was pretty much the entire coaching staff
saying for Montreal, we want to run the ball down
every team's throat every single week to help us open
the passing game. I'll be looking at some running props
here this week for the Alouettes, but I'll be looking
towards Montreal in the first half to get the job done.
That run is a huge and I'll just point out
Montreal their second best in the league against the run
BC dead last, so first half play. For me, this
is one of those ones when you have just a
pitiful This reminds me of the NHL taking a really
good team the next game after a tough performance to
win the first period minus a half. I used to
bet that all the time, and usually you're getting them
as good favorites. Like if you're betting a minus a
half first period in the NHL and it's plus money,
it's probably not a good bet. Like usually I'm betting
it like even money, or like minus one ten, one fifteen,
or maybe like plus one ten. But this reminds me
of this perfect bounce back spot first half for the
Alouettes to get it done here. I want to bet
against the backups. And at the end of the day,
we can all say that NBT wasn't great last week,
but he's probably the farthest thing away from a backup
at this point. He's had some meaningful starting games, as
you and I both know.
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, he played well last year, like he was
on quite a losing streak with the Elks, But I
don't think there were many games where you could point
and say, hey, NBT put up thirty two points and
we still lost. This guy stinks like it wasn't it
wasn't him, and he kind of got run out of
there because because they can't, they won't get ready to
trade Ford and I guess we'll get into that.
Speaker 1: Well, look all right, let let's let's let's get right
into it here. Actually, before we do, I just got
to mention this. I got to mention the special kids
the last day for it. If anybody's interested here for.
Speaker 2: Where was your Canada Day Sale? That guy had a
good comment.
Speaker 1: I put it up. I put it up. We had
one going there, but we weren't. We weren't live yesterday.
So I had the Canada Day Sale going right now.
Fourth July, low a special sixty nine dollars for a
week of all places. You're going to get cfl any, rare, MLB,
anything else that I do release, so you guys take advantage.
One best bet is twenty five dollars. Five percent plays
thirty five dollars. As we know in this game and
in most things in life, better to buy long term
if you're interested. Fourth to July, blow at sales seven
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So it's a really good deal. If any of you
guys are interested, feel free to head over grab that
WT dot buzz slash am, or you can message me
on Twitter at McGinnis picks. We can talk things out.
But we're looking forward to still having a real profitable
CFL season, looking forward to Week five and dabbling in
the MLB as we move along throughout the summer. So
happy I could make the graphic as well. I don't know,
nobody even told me I was gonna cut it with
the graphic, but I don't know who chose that bobby
for me not being American and they put me on
that graphic, but I love it. Shut up to the
show up the team for that one putting me on there.
So guys, wagertalk dot com. One week pass, and you know,
people don't like the one months and the ninety days
sometimes find that two intimidating, so I think one week
is a really good sample size to see. And you
can see my write ups. You can see how I bet.
Hopefully we're not just seeing the CLV this week. Hopefully
we're winning as well, because nobody cares about CLV unless
you get the job done, all right, Your thoughts on
this game here the Alex plus one and a half,
he talked about the stench. I got a feeling based
on your Twitter, what you're doing here with the team
that's averaging thirty five points against per game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so last week everybody is saying, oh, tray Ford,
he finally he's improving.
Speaker 2: But even then, like even in that game.
Speaker 3: If you had Cody Figardo playing instead, like would you
say that, Like, he wouldn't have done any better. And
that's every game so far, and this has been every game.
This has been a lot basically his whole career for
tray Ford. And it's it's they're trying to make fetch
happen with tray Ford here, and it's not gonna happen.
It's he's had four years, he said, twenty one starts,
eight and twelve. He got injured out like early in
one of them. And I looked up a few quarterbacks
who started fewer games that nobody's asking for, and the
obvious one here is Chris Treveler. He's started only fourteen
and I think his record's pretty similar. But nobody's out
there saying, let's get Chris Treveler. They actually tried to
run Matthew Schiltz out of the league last two weeks ago.
He's only started fourteen games. I don't know his record,
but I assume it's not bad because he did take
the job from current East mop believe I Mitchell believe
I Mitchell couldn't compete with Matthew Schiltz. That's why they
got rid of him. I guess Cameron Dukes literally out
of the league now, went five and six eleven starts.
Dustin Crumbs only had sixteen starts. Nobody's asking for him
even though we're probably gonna get him right. Caleb Evans
another guy like these are people that some of them old.
Speaker 2: Some of them young.
Speaker 3: But Trey Ford's had twenty one starts. People are saying, oh,
we're just give him a chance, let him grow. He's
gonna be thirty years old pretty soon, and we're gonna say, like, how, like,
are we still gonna let him grow? So again, the
problem that's always with tray Ford is like, sure, the
league posts all his videos, all the media says, oh god,
he's so exciting, he's such a great quarterback. This is
his year. They're always wrong, but it doesn't matter. The
books can't be wrong, and the books have never bought
into this trade Ford stuff, so that's why they're still
a home dog. And that's my trade Ford rat. Now
I'm gonna tell you why I'm betting on trey Ford
this week because they're they're playing Ottawa and Ottawa is
unbetable and they look awful without Drew Brown. So this
is nothing we didn't expect. We know what Dustin Crumb was. Yes,
he won a game where Calgary basically handed it to them,
along with fifty mile an hour winds and seven degree
summer weather, so like he's going back out there again.
It looks like it. People are already calling for Matthew
Schiltz to come back after they ran try to run
him out of the league two weeks ago. They're like,
let's get Shiltz back out there. Tyree Adams. They have
four quarterbacks on this team. I don't know why he's
also an option.
Speaker 2: I watched tyreeb We know why.
Speaker 1: None of them are good, so they recycle.
Speaker 3: You know, you don't need you don't need three bad
quarterbacks backing up Drew Brown. So like, we know what
we have in these backups. So the only thing that's
going to save the Red Blocks. Here is Drew Brown,
and even if he does start, I don't think he
should be getting well, what is it right now? It's
down to one and a half. That's probably where it
should be. So, worst case you get Drew Brown off
an injury, are you expecting he's going to be one
hundred percent healthy?
Speaker 2: Probably not.
Speaker 3: And I think that's the line that's the most they
should be laying on as a road dog. This is
the Ottawa Red Blacks and we're their their road, sorry
road dog, their road favorites. Like that in itself, I'll
take any team against them. So yeah, I think tray
Ford stinks. I'm tired of this. It should be Cody
Fajardo in there right now. But I'm still taking the
Elks because they're playing the Red Blacks.
Speaker 1: Well. I mean, based on what we saw, the Red
Blacks were allergic to any plays that were farther than
a ten yard pass. I mean it could have been
it could have been second and eighteen and they would
throw a three yard dump off. That's what we were seeing.
Like we the term that I heard the most was
you just can't throw that ball underneath. That's what the
broadcast kept saying that's another throw underneath from Dustin Crumb.
It's like, yeah, man, the first down marker was fifteen
yards away. I don't know what he expects his receiver
to do, but he's probably not getting that first down.
They might as well have just punted it on second
down because they made minimal effort to get the fumble. Yeah,
so I agree with you on this one. I haven't
locked any bet in so far on this one. This
is probably a good prop game. I made money last
week and it was I shut out to you, Bob,
because you said, hey, don't give up, don't give up.
I had the tray Ford player prop passing yards over
and I bet it in kind of a different scenario
than this game will set up. However, though, I bet
it when they were underdogs. I had Winnipeg first half
and I had trade Ford passing. But this is one
of those ones where I just think they're going to
be able to put up numbers on the Red Blacks,
because if you remember, Trey Ford had looked awful in
the first half last week, but then when he was behind,
he was able to accumulate those yards for me. When
he was behind this game, I think he could start
off start off good. Look at what our buckle did
to the Red Blacks. And I know you're not the
biggest tray Ford fan, but if he can sling the
ball and just kind of have that threat a little bit,
then you can start running. They can establish the run game.
I think that could be really good for them. One
thing the broadcast team said last week, which I found
kind of interesting, was that he didn't really run the
ball much, especially in the first half. One thing for
me is I'm a big fan of just be who
you are. Like, I understand they want him to actually
act as a QB and like throw the ball more
and sit in the pocket and go through his reads.
But Bobby, that's who he is. No matter what we're
gonna say about this guy, I know you have your
forward rants. If you're betting on him this weekend, you
probably want him having over seven or eight rushing attempts
from where I'm sitting at least, and I think if
he does that against the Red Blacks, he'll open things
up for the passing game they are playing at home.
I agree with you on it. Again, this might be
one of those ones where I probably just want to
bet the team total, you know, or find a different
way to bet on them. We'll see where this number
moves if there's ever a chance again, this is one
of those ones. You look at Hamilton, you look at Ottawa. Here,
this is one of those ones where we're not gonna
have to worry about a whole which team covered, which
team one. It's just picked the winner, obviously with a
one and a half point spread. So Edmonton to get
the job done. And I'm gonna tell you what, this
is gonna be one of those games. And I know
you like to get middles pre flop as you did
last week with BC Saskatchewan. You're gonna be able to
I'm gonna I'm gonna throw this out there now. You're
gonna be able to find your way in on both
teams during this game. You'll be able to get Edmonton
or you're gonna be able to get Ottawa as an
underdog at plus four and a half plus six and
a half at some point during this game. So Kevin says,
tray Ford is the king of garbage time, and wasn't
great is being really generous when it comes to Dustin
Grum and some of these guys absolutely all right, long
show for this week, but I want to do some
recapping for week four. I wanted to talk about some
ats numbers, anything else to add, Bobby or We're all
good to go.
Speaker 3: Just on that getting both sides in the live Ottawa Edmonton.
I would just hope that Ottawa gets ahead, because if
they're behind, I have no faith they're ever going to
come back in any game. So true, pick up, pick
up Edmonton if they're if they're getting any points, I
guess live, but pick them up now. It's a good
number now and if it's dust and crumb, they should
be favored by a field goal.
Speaker 1: Let's have a good week this week. If it's not
Drew Brown, we're team Elks, that's for sure. And if
it is Drew Brown, hey, we're still rooting on those Elks.
Just a little more of a challenge. Let's have a
good week, guys. Hope you guys have a lot of
success betting the CFL. Remember college football NFL here before
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