WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau. Today I'm

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<v Speaker 1>joined by my old friend and colleague David Plouffe, the

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<v Speaker 1>former White House senior advisor to Barack Obama and as

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<v Speaker 1>well as his 2008 campaign manager and a senior advisor

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<v Speaker 1>to Kamala Harris's 107-day campaign. Plouffe's one of the smartest

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<v Speaker 1>and most committed people I've ever met in Democratic politics.

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<v Speaker 1>So when I saw that he published a piece in

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<v Speaker 1>The New York Times about the Democratic Party's new early

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<v Speaker 1>state calendar and how he thinks it will fundamentally reshape

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<v Speaker 1>the 2028 primary, I had a million questions I wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to ask him. I first got his thoughts on the

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<v Speaker 1>final stretch of the 2026 midterms and what he thinks

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<v Speaker 1>Democrats need to do to close the deal with voters

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<v Speaker 1>and all the key states and races. And then we

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<v Speaker 1>dug into the 2028 primary, which, believe it or not,

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<v Speaker 1>will basically begin the day after the midterms are over.

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<v Speaker 1>We talked about the calendar, strategy, and he had some

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<v Speaker 1>interesting things to say about some of the potential candidates

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<v Speaker 1>like AOC, John Ossoff, and Kamala Harris. It was, as

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<v Speaker 1>it always is with Pluff, a great conversation that I

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<v Speaker 1>could have kept going for hours. We'll get to it

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<v Speaker 1>in a minute, but before we do, please consider becoming

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<v Speaker 1>a paying subscriber to Friends of the Pod. Subscribers get

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<v Speaker 1>access to ad-free episodes of this show, Pod Save America,

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<v Speaker 1>and all of your favorite Crooked Pods, as well as

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<v Speaker 1>special subscriber-exclusive shows like our extra episode of Pod Save America,

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<v Speaker 1>Pod Save America Only Friends, where this week Lovett and

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<v Speaker 1>Dan broke down Darlene Graham's win in South Carolina and

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<v Speaker 1>lots more. If you want to check it out and

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<v Speaker 1>get access to even more newsletters, discounted CrookedCon tickets, all

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<v Speaker 1>kinds of good stuff, head on over to crooked.com slash

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<v Speaker 1>friends to subscribe. All right, here's David Plouffe. David Plouffe,

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<v Speaker 1>welcome back to Pod Save America.

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<v Speaker 2>Mr. Favreau, it's always good to be with you.

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<v Speaker 1>You too. I looked at last time you were on

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<v Speaker 1>was January and you and Pfeiffer talked about the Democratic brand,

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<v Speaker 1>which has now been completely rehabilitated. But I was going

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<v Speaker 1>to ask like, Now that the first ballots are set

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<v Speaker 1>to go out next week, how much progress do you

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<v Speaker 1>think the party has made over the last seven months

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<v Speaker 1>in trying to fix some of the problems you and

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<v Speaker 1>Dan talked about, you've written about? Put it another way,

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<v Speaker 1>like how much of the Democrats' relatively strong political position

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<v Speaker 1>right now would you say is attributable to Donald Trump's

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<v Speaker 1>incredibly weak political position and how much is the party's

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<v Speaker 1>actually done some improvement?

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<v Speaker 2>I think all of it almost is attributable. to Donald

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<v Speaker 2>Trump and the fact that they're in power. So listen,

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<v Speaker 2>there is, to be an optimist for a minute, we've

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<v Speaker 2>got some great candidates out there that I think are

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<v Speaker 2>kind of defining for people in their own way what

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<v Speaker 2>a Democrat can be in 2026. So that's great. But

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<v Speaker 2>the party writ large, obviously, you just look at the numbers.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, we have, you know, we've got a massive problem.

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<v Speaker 2>And listen, I don't know yet, neither do you, no

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<v Speaker 2>one can know for sure what's going to happen this November. But,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, it could be more like 2006, potentially atmospherically.

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<v Speaker 2>And so the question is, are we going to take

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<v Speaker 2>full advantage of that? We would take more advantage of

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<v Speaker 2>it if our brand was stronger. But I think what

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<v Speaker 2>we're going to see is candidates in certain places have

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<v Speaker 2>begun to show us the way forward here about what

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<v Speaker 2>a Democratic offering can be in 2026. So and that's

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<v Speaker 2>going to be the important thing to look at is

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<v Speaker 2>when we see after the election and look at the data,

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<v Speaker 2>the Democrats who overperform kind of the mean are Even

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<v Speaker 2>though this should be a fairly good year for us,

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<v Speaker 2>we're going to have people overperform that. And to understand

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<v Speaker 2>why is going to be really important going forward.

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<v Speaker 1>So I know to a large extent this depends on

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<v Speaker 1>the race, but what do you think the frontline House

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<v Speaker 1>and Senate candidates in the most competitive races have to

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<v Speaker 1>do in the next 60-ish days that they haven't done

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<v Speaker 1>yet to close the deal with voters?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think in most of these races, you're going

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<v Speaker 2>to have five, six, seven percent of people who are

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<v Speaker 2>still undecided. So you've got to make the case to them.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think what's interesting is I think the case

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<v Speaker 2>against the Republicans is largely set in stone. You've got

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<v Speaker 2>to continue to remind people of this and particularly for

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<v Speaker 2>some of these incumbent House Republicans and incumbent Senate Republicans,

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<v Speaker 2>make sure they own all the downside of Trump. You've

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<v Speaker 2>got to tie them to higher prices and health care

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<v Speaker 2>and all the things people obviously are very upset about.

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<v Speaker 2>But I think the candidates I think will do the

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<v Speaker 2>best are able to convince people that they are not

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<v Speaker 2>just a flawed alternative, that there's actually something that they

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<v Speaker 2>offer that might be interesting and new and exciting to people.

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<v Speaker 2>Then you've got to focus on turnout and make sure

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<v Speaker 2>that we're getting strong enough turnout. And I think in

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<v Speaker 2>the red states, particularly in center races, but this is

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<v Speaker 2>true in some of the outer edge house races, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>we all see the polls. Maybe they're all bullshit, but

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<v Speaker 2>let's say they're accurate. And, you know, we've got people

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<v Speaker 2>in states like Iowa, in Texas, in Alaska, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>who are winning, but they're still at like 46, 47, 48.

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<v Speaker 2>And I always remind people, like when we see a

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<v Speaker 2>poll that has a Democrat at 47 and a Republican

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<v Speaker 2>at 42, yeah, it's better than the alternative, but that's

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<v Speaker 2>89% of the vote. What's happening to the other 11%?

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<v Speaker 2>And so for these candidates, you have to focus on that.

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<v Speaker 2>And the good ones know this, which is, let's say

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<v Speaker 2>in that scenario, most of that 11% is going to

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<v Speaker 2>go to the Republicans. in some of these tough places.

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<v Speaker 2>So you've got to figure out where's the 3% of

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<v Speaker 2>that 11% that's out there that I can bring home.

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<v Speaker 2>So that really is the focus, I think, of all

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<v Speaker 2>of these candidates is, and I think it's going to

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<v Speaker 2>require in some of the toughest districts and toughest Senate states,

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<v Speaker 2>it can't just be anti-Republican vote. That is why we're

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<v Speaker 2>in the position we're in, and it's a great position. But,

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<v Speaker 2>and this is where like a James Tallarico, maybe we'll

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<v Speaker 2>see this with an Osborne in Nebraska, a Turek, these

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<v Speaker 2>candidates who are exceptional candidates. you know, have the ability

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<v Speaker 2>to get that extra one or two percent because of

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<v Speaker 2>who they are, not just because they're a Democrat.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, this kind of leads to my next question, which

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<v Speaker 1>is I saw this week Troy Jackson released his first ads.

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<v Speaker 1>They were like positive bio spots. Abdul El-Sayed mixed it

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<v Speaker 1>up with Jesse Waters on Fox. I saw some people say,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, these candidates shouldn't do all that much to

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<v Speaker 1>make the race about them. Everything should be about trying

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<v Speaker 1>to tie their opponents to Donald Trump. obviously, everyone has

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<v Speaker 1>to do a little bit of both. But what is

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<v Speaker 1>your sense of the right balance there?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think sort of atmospherically, most of these Republican

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<v Speaker 2>candidates are already paying the price for being in Donald

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's party and for a lot of them doing his bidding. So,

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<v Speaker 2>of course, over the next few weeks, and you're going

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<v Speaker 2>to want to continue to remind people of that. And,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, the most interesting way to do that, I think,

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<v Speaker 2>is to bring forward voters and voices who can speak

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<v Speaker 2>to that. Particularly people who said, listen, I voted for

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<v Speaker 2>this person in the past, or I voted for Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 2>I can't do it anymore. I've switched. But I think

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<v Speaker 2>to get, again, I'm very focused on states where, and

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<v Speaker 2>in the Senate in particular, you know, this is hostile

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<v Speaker 2>political territory for us. So I do think you've got

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<v Speaker 2>to give people comfort that you're an alternative that they

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<v Speaker 2>can trust. So it's a blend. But I think it's

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<v Speaker 2>always important in campaigns, John, and you know this very well, like,

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<v Speaker 2>You've got to step back and say, what's the thing

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<v Speaker 2>that voters already know? And so then how do we

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<v Speaker 2>reinforce that? But where's the opening where we can introduce

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<v Speaker 2>new arguments? Some of those may be new ways to,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, refresh the argument against Republicans. But I think

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<v Speaker 2>Democrats have to. And so when I see Jackson and

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<v Speaker 2>Abdul Al-Sayed and Turek and Rob Sander and all these people,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, going into hostile places to do interviews, that's

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<v Speaker 2>what you have to do. I really, really believe that's

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<v Speaker 2>the case because we're at a point now where anybody

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<v Speaker 2>who's truly undecided about who to vote for, whether to vote,

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<v Speaker 2>it's kind of already baked in that they're very unhappy

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<v Speaker 2>with Donald Trump and the Republicans. So I'm not suggesting

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<v Speaker 2>you don't continue to remind them that, but that's just

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<v Speaker 2>a fact. And again, I think when we look post-election,

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<v Speaker 2>the people who overperformed the average Democrat are going to

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<v Speaker 2>be people who built a relationship with their voters based

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<v Speaker 2>on who they are, what they're offering. And by the way,

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<v Speaker 2>particularly where they're different from not just Republicans, but the

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<v Speaker 2>Democratic Party and the status quo. Those are the candidates

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<v Speaker 2>that I think they're going to do the best this November.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I've been thinking about this because it's tough for

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<v Speaker 1>these congressional candidates, at least, to really run on much

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<v Speaker 1>of a positive agenda when Donald Trump is going to

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<v Speaker 1>be president for another two years because You don't want

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<v Speaker 1>to get into the situation where you overpromise something that

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<v Speaker 1>you just– people know that you're not going to be

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<v Speaker 1>able to deliver. But like– and obviously the party hasn't–

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<v Speaker 1>and maybe that will change, but I don't think so.

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<v Speaker 1>There's been no sort of contract with America or even–

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like in 06 there was like an anti-corruption agenda.

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<v Speaker 1>What do you think about that? Like is it just

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<v Speaker 1>race by race and people talking about individual things that

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<v Speaker 1>they can do either in the next two years or

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<v Speaker 1>beyond that? Or how does that work?

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's very individualized. So I think a national, listen,

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<v Speaker 2>I think national Democrats should go on a cruise somewhere

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<v Speaker 2>where there's no cell service and no ability to do

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<v Speaker 2>interviews and let the candidates take the stage. And by

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<v Speaker 2>the way, listen, if you look historically, I mean, the

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<v Speaker 2>contract for America actually, you know, as you know, we've

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<v Speaker 2>been through this. When you win, you get to say

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<v Speaker 2>why you won. And when you lose, obviously everything sticks

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<v Speaker 2>to you. But the contract with America was not why

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<v Speaker 2>they won. I mean, the exit polls back in 94

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<v Speaker 2>suggested that it was not a core reason that people voted.

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<v Speaker 2>And the six for six, I think that's what it

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<v Speaker 2>was called in 06. Like, that's not why Democrats won.

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<v Speaker 2>So I just think at the end of the day,

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<v Speaker 2>we should give, particularly when you've got a brand problem

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<v Speaker 2>as acute as we do, let's just give the individual

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<v Speaker 2>candidates or like small businesses, you know, let them do

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<v Speaker 2>what they think is best. Some of them may have

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<v Speaker 2>very specific policy agenda. Some of them may focus on corruption.

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<v Speaker 2>Some of them may be more about their biography and

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<v Speaker 2>kind of their values. So let them do their thing

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<v Speaker 2>because the overhang of the party, like, so right now,

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<v Speaker 2>like to have Chuck Schumer and Democrats out on the

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<v Speaker 2>steps saying, here's what we're going to do when we

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<v Speaker 2>gain power, that would be political malpractice of like historical proportions.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think we should just, that's my view anyway.

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<v Speaker 2>I think, and it particularly when We do have, not universally,

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<v Speaker 2>but there are some really strong candidates for the Senate

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<v Speaker 2>and for the House running who I think are, again,

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<v Speaker 2>showing us what a new version of Democratic offering can be.

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<v Speaker 2>That's quite exciting. And I think their biggest challenge right

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<v Speaker 2>now is the Democratic Party brand. So let's not do

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<v Speaker 2>anything to make that more complicated for them.

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<v Speaker 1>What are some of the biggest unforced errors that Democrats

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<v Speaker 1>could make in the next 60 days that worry you?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think it is. You know, I don't think

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<v Speaker 2>there's going to be a national agenda, but a national agenda.

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<v Speaker 2>I think having a lot of discussion about the hearings

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<v Speaker 2>that we're going to have when we take over would

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<v Speaker 2>be problematical. And I this can sound like I'm kidding.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not like I just think national Democrats should go

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<v Speaker 2>in hiding and let these individual candidates prosecute their case.

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<v Speaker 2>And by the way, that's important because we know Donald

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's not going to go into hiding. Right. So he's

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<v Speaker 2>going to continue to be out there. He's going to cause...

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<v Speaker 2>By the way, this ad campaign he's talking about running

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<v Speaker 2>with all of his money, that's going to be pro-Trump ads.

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<v Speaker 2>Phenomenally stupid. I think, although, John, you should always step

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<v Speaker 2>back and say, is there something they see that maybe

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<v Speaker 2>we don't see? And the only thing I can think

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<v Speaker 2>about is it may help them with turnout a little bit.

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<v Speaker 2>But all those candidates now are going to have to

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<v Speaker 2>answer to Donald Trump running ads... on all the things

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<v Speaker 2>that are upsetting voters in their states and districts. So

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<v Speaker 2>that's the other thing I think about it. Like, let

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<v Speaker 2>him kind of dominate nationally. Let's make sure we're quiet nationally.

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<v Speaker 2>And let's let some of these great candidates have the

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<v Speaker 2>best environment we can imagine in these closing weeks. And

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<v Speaker 2>as you know, people start voting in about five to

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<v Speaker 2>six weeks. So this isn't a two-month question.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, on the Dem side, like, the discourse and the coverage,

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<v Speaker 1>I think, has been dominated for the last couple weeks,

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<v Speaker 1>months about this, like, And this is partly because of

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<v Speaker 1>the primaries and partly because of Republicans. This like DSA

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<v Speaker 1>left versus center left establishment narrative. Like how much do

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<v Speaker 1>you think that or how much do you worry that

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<v Speaker 1>that might affect the outcome of the midterms? Or is

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<v Speaker 1>this just an insider thing that most voters are never

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<v Speaker 1>going to really pay attention to?

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<v Speaker 2>My view, and it's based a little bit on research

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<v Speaker 2>I've seen, but also instinct, is it's very much the latter.

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<v Speaker 2>Like the people that will decide the Iowa governor's race

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<v Speaker 2>and the Iowa Senate race in Clinton, Iowa, or in Decorah, Iowa,

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<v Speaker 2>you think they're talking about this democratic divide or in Toledo, Ohio?

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<v Speaker 2>Absolutely not. And so in those states, you've got Amy Acton,

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<v Speaker 2>you've got Sherrod Brown, you've got Turek, you've got Sand,

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<v Speaker 2>just to use those examples. who are defining what the

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<v Speaker 2>Democratic offering is in this election. They're not focused on

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<v Speaker 2>what happened in those states, even though Michigan's close to them,

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<v Speaker 2>like what happened in the Michigan primary, what's happening in

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<v Speaker 2>New York City. They're just not focused on that. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>I think our presidential race, not in the general election,

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<v Speaker 2>but in the primary, yeah, that's going to be a

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<v Speaker 2>really big piece of it, is what are people looking for?

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<v Speaker 2>And I happen to believe it'll probably be more about

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<v Speaker 2>the person, their biography, their values, their performance than ideology.

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<v Speaker 2>but that'll be part of it. So I really do

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<v Speaker 2>not think, and by the way, if the Republicans want

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<v Speaker 2>to go spend a bunch of time saying, well, what

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<v Speaker 2>you're really electing is democratic socialists, have at it. Because

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think that blanket message to me works at all.

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<v Speaker 2>I think the best thing they can do is try

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<v Speaker 2>and indict the individual Democrats running in states or districts

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<v Speaker 2>to the best of their ability. But I think there's

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<v Speaker 2>going to be a limitation to that as well, because listen,

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<v Speaker 2>people are really fucking upset out there and they are

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<v Speaker 2>ready to to switch, even though they don't like their

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<v Speaker 2>option to switch to. They like some of the individual Democrats,

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<v Speaker 2>not the Democratic Party. And so for me, this is

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<v Speaker 2>the challenge for us over the next number of years

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<v Speaker 2>and even decade, is we have to get that brand

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<v Speaker 2>stronger so that we reliably win more elections in more

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<v Speaker 2>places so that we can have sustained power and control

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<v Speaker 2>the White House and the Senate. This is existential. And

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<v Speaker 2>whatever happens in this election, we should not think Or

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<v Speaker 2>get overly confident that we fixed our problems because we haven't.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah. No, that's going to be important because clearly the

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<v Speaker 1>Biden folks thought that in 22 because the midterms were

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<v Speaker 1>better than expected. Any long shot races in the midterms

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<v Speaker 1>you think that would it be worth investing more in

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<v Speaker 1>right now that people should have their eye on?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the question would be, I mean, you you were

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, you were in Obama's Senate office in 2006, right?

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<v Speaker 1>Mm hmm.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay. And, you know, I was very involved in that election,

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<v Speaker 2>did a lot of work for Rahm in the DCCC. And,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, that was the election where there were people

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<v Speaker 2>who won an election.

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<v Speaker 1>I remember.

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<v Speaker 2>That the DCCC hadn't supported. That surprised the heck out

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<v Speaker 2>of everybody. So is that possible this time? I think

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<v Speaker 2>it's probably less possible in the House just because there

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<v Speaker 2>are so few real competitive districts. But, you know, is

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<v Speaker 2>it possible that we could win some House races that

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<v Speaker 2>Trump won by 12, 14 points? I guess it's possible.

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<v Speaker 2>I think the surprises will be in the Senate.

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<v Speaker 1>Mm-hmm.

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<v Speaker 2>What's so exciting about the Senate, now, Senate control is

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<v Speaker 2>going to be really hard because this is hostile territory,

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<v Speaker 2>but boy, we're taking a lot of shots on goal

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<v Speaker 2>this year. We've got a lot of races. We can

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<v Speaker 2>lose most of them and still win. The question is,

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<v Speaker 2>in South Dakota, in Montana, in Nebraska, are there going

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<v Speaker 2>to be some surprises? Those would be like, if we

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<v Speaker 2>win any of those, we're going to have a year

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<v Speaker 2>probably as good as 2006. But you know, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio.

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<v Speaker 2>By the way, we're now used to saying how competitive

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<v Speaker 2>like Iowa is and Ohio is. I mean, these are

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<v Speaker 2>deep red states right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>And so, you know, let's not forget that, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>particularly like if Sherrod Brown wins, having just lost, I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, that's going to be 10 to 12 percent

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<v Speaker 2>of the electorate behaving completely differently from 24 to 26.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think there could be some Senate race surprises.

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<v Speaker 2>And again, I think that the people who might pull

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<v Speaker 2>those races off, they might have just got 48% in

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<v Speaker 2>this good environment for Democrats. It's because enough voters said,

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<v Speaker 2>they're a different kind of Democrat, or that's a person

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<v Speaker 2>I can trust, or that I'm excited or interested in

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<v Speaker 2>that person. And that's where I think the surprises will

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<v Speaker 2>come from.

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<v Speaker 2>All right.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about, uh, the 2028 primary, uh, which basically

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<v Speaker 1>begins the day after the midterms. Uh, when people ask

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<v Speaker 1>me what I think about 2028, I always say it's,

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<v Speaker 1>it's really hard to know anything until we know who

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<v Speaker 1>the candidates are and the order of the early States.

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<v Speaker 1>So now we know the calendar, South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire,

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<v Speaker 1>New Mexico, Michigan, Virginia. Uh, and you just wrote a

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<v Speaker 1>New York times piece about this. Um, You called it

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<v Speaker 1>the most consequential primary shakeup in decades. I feel like

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<v Speaker 1>you could have written another 5,000 words on this, which

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<v Speaker 1>is why I wanted to.

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<v Speaker 2>Have you on. I did, but they cut them out.

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<v Speaker 1>I figured.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I could tell.

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<v Speaker 1>But like big picture, when you sit down to plan

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<v Speaker 1>your presidential campaign, if you're one of these candidates, what

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<v Speaker 1>are the most important differences to consider between the old

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<v Speaker 1>map and the new map?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, first of all, if you'll grant me this, I

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<v Speaker 2>hope they spend a lot of time thinking about whether

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<v Speaker 2>they should fucking run or not.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>Like.

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<v Speaker 1>No, I... Like.

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<v Speaker 2>Like... Do I have something so unique to offer my

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<v Speaker 2>party in the country that I should seek our nomination

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<v Speaker 2>and I would want to be our president? Like, I

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00:20:18.410 --> 00:20:20.299
<v Speaker 2>know it all seems like a reality show now. You

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<v Speaker 2>and I have worked in that building. You know how

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<v Speaker 2>hard the decisions these presidents have to make are like.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's start there. But let's assume they look in

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<v Speaker 2>the mirror and they say yes and they decide to run.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, you're going to have to have a message and,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, Even though we have states now, so you

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<v Speaker 2>just mentioned the six, that'll be most important. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>this is still a national campaign. There's no borders around content.

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<v Speaker 2>There's no borders around controversy. So, you know, you don't

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<v Speaker 2>want to fashion your strategy and your message based on states.

415
00:20:50.480 --> 00:20:54.829
<v Speaker 2>But as you think about this, like if you're not

416
00:20:54.869 --> 00:20:56.740
<v Speaker 2>in the top three in the first state, so in

417
00:20:56.769 --> 00:21:00.809
<v Speaker 2>this case, South Carolina, you're probably done. Let's say the

418
00:21:00.849 --> 00:21:04.170
<v Speaker 2>winner is, let's just say Kamala Harris runs and let's

419
00:21:04.210 --> 00:21:07.460
<v Speaker 2>say Kamala Harris wins South Carolina. Her challenge will be,

420
00:21:07.640 --> 00:21:10.079
<v Speaker 2>does she exit Virginia with the same strength of black

421
00:21:10.119 --> 00:21:12.769
<v Speaker 2>voters that she started the process in South Carolina? And

422
00:21:12.809 --> 00:21:14.890
<v Speaker 2>somebody else has to figure out, how am I going

423
00:21:14.910 --> 00:21:19.130
<v Speaker 2>to grow so that I can exit really Michigan and

424
00:21:19.150 --> 00:21:22.390
<v Speaker 2>Virginia as the leader? Because as you know, John, having

425
00:21:22.430 --> 00:21:25.990
<v Speaker 2>gone through this, right after Virginia, we get into Super

426
00:21:26.009 --> 00:21:30.500
<v Speaker 2>Tuesday and massive states with huge delegate yield. And the

427
00:21:30.559 --> 00:21:33.059
<v Speaker 2>reason the black vote is so important in the democratic

428
00:21:33.099 --> 00:21:37.009
<v Speaker 2>process is we apportion our delegates by congressional district for

429
00:21:37.029 --> 00:21:40.730
<v Speaker 2>the most part. Some of them are statewide. And those,

430
00:21:41.910 --> 00:21:47.009
<v Speaker 2>the most democratic congressional districts have more delegates. And if

431
00:21:47.049 --> 00:21:49.950
<v Speaker 2>you're the candidate who's winning 50, 60, 70% of the

432
00:21:49.970 --> 00:21:54.509
<v Speaker 2>black vote, you're winning congressional districts and winning those delegates.

433
00:21:54.630 --> 00:21:57.079
<v Speaker 2>Like let's say it's a CD with eight delegates, you

434
00:21:57.099 --> 00:21:59.380
<v Speaker 2>could win seven. And if you're winning all of them

435
00:21:59.390 --> 00:22:02.559
<v Speaker 2>throughout the South, you're the nominee. So I think the

436
00:22:02.619 --> 00:22:05.460
<v Speaker 2>question is for all these people, Um, you know, how

437
00:22:05.480 --> 00:22:09.619
<v Speaker 2>do I survive South Carolina? Um, how do I, if

438
00:22:09.680 --> 00:22:12.140
<v Speaker 2>I didn't win South Carolina, how do I win Nevada

439
00:22:12.319 --> 00:22:14.700
<v Speaker 2>or finish a stronger second than I did in South Carolina?

440
00:22:15.500 --> 00:22:18.829
<v Speaker 2>New Hampshire, if it stays there, um, is interesting. You know,

441
00:22:18.869 --> 00:22:21.630
<v Speaker 2>you could see a Canada Lake Buddha judge if he runs,

442
00:22:22.109 --> 00:22:24.490
<v Speaker 2>you know, not winning South Carolina of data doing well

443
00:22:24.529 --> 00:22:26.589
<v Speaker 2>enough winning New Hampshire. So then the question for him

444
00:22:26.690 --> 00:22:29.869
<v Speaker 2>is in New Mexico, in Michigan and in Virginia, can

445
00:22:29.890 --> 00:22:34.140
<v Speaker 2>he expand his coalition? Um, And even though, you know,

446
00:22:34.200 --> 00:22:36.539
<v Speaker 2>Virginia's got almost 30 percent of the electorate there is

447
00:22:36.559 --> 00:22:39.000
<v Speaker 2>going to be black voters. So we start with a

448
00:22:39.039 --> 00:22:41.920
<v Speaker 2>state that's going to be dominated and really determined by

449
00:22:41.960 --> 00:22:45.240
<v Speaker 2>how the black vote allocates its vote. And we end

450
00:22:45.279 --> 00:22:47.289
<v Speaker 2>it with a state where the black vote is going

451
00:22:47.309 --> 00:22:48.289
<v Speaker 2>to be incredibly important.

452
00:22:48.849 --> 00:22:51.690
<v Speaker 1>So, you know, Michigan, Michigan, too, I guess, Michigan, too.

453
00:22:52.089 --> 00:22:54.710
<v Speaker 2>You've got, you know, heavy black vote in Michigan. Obviously,

454
00:22:54.730 --> 00:22:57.829
<v Speaker 2>you've got some important Arab American vote, big campuses. So,

455
00:22:58.769 --> 00:23:00.920
<v Speaker 2>you know, I guess my my view on it is.

456
00:23:01.390 --> 00:23:03.769
<v Speaker 2>You can't right now, any of the candidates say, well, okay,

457
00:23:03.849 --> 00:23:05.410
<v Speaker 2>how am I going to win the black vote? Well,

458
00:23:05.430 --> 00:23:06.789
<v Speaker 2>you're going to win the black vote by running a

459
00:23:06.849 --> 00:23:10.390
<v Speaker 2>great campaign, by being an exciting candidate, by building support

460
00:23:10.430 --> 00:23:12.259
<v Speaker 2>in that community. There's no way to like X or

461
00:23:12.420 --> 00:23:14.059
<v Speaker 2>O your way to this. It's not like it was

462
00:23:14.160 --> 00:23:16.730
<v Speaker 2>back when like John Kerry ran in 04, where you're like, oh,

463
00:23:16.759 --> 00:23:19.559
<v Speaker 2>I've got 12 state senators in a state who've endorsed me.

464
00:23:19.599 --> 00:23:21.900
<v Speaker 2>And that doesn't matter anymore, really. I mean, with the

465
00:23:21.920 --> 00:23:24.900
<v Speaker 2>exception of maybe Jim Clyburn, there's no endorsement that's going

466
00:23:24.920 --> 00:23:28.019
<v Speaker 2>to actually generate vote. So I think the key thing

467
00:23:28.059 --> 00:23:31.259
<v Speaker 2>for these candidates in these campaigns is, They're basically running

468
00:23:31.700 --> 00:23:36.279
<v Speaker 2>six governor's races in these six primary states. And, you know,

469
00:23:36.440 --> 00:23:39.589
<v Speaker 2>you have no chance if you don't exit Virginia either

470
00:23:39.910 --> 00:23:43.390
<v Speaker 2>as well. If you don't exit Virginia as the front runner,

471
00:23:43.430 --> 00:23:44.109
<v Speaker 2>you're probably cooked.

472
00:23:44.650 --> 00:23:44.869
<v Speaker 1>Right.

473
00:23:45.049 --> 00:23:47.670
<v Speaker 2>Right. And you have to understand that. And each of

474
00:23:47.730 --> 00:23:51.390
<v Speaker 2>those states obviously has some commonality with each other around issues,

475
00:23:51.430 --> 00:23:53.819
<v Speaker 2>but they have distinction. And so you want to build

476
00:23:53.859 --> 00:23:57.240
<v Speaker 2>a campaign to survive early and hopefully then build momentum

477
00:23:57.259 --> 00:23:59.930
<v Speaker 2>and and exit Virginia into Super Tuesday with the ability

478
00:23:59.970 --> 00:24:03.069
<v Speaker 2>to be the nominee. So, you know, at the end

479
00:24:03.109 --> 00:24:05.289
<v Speaker 2>of the, and the reason I wrote that piece is, A,

480
00:24:05.349 --> 00:24:08.809
<v Speaker 2>I find these calendar changes fascinating. I think they're very consequential,

481
00:24:09.630 --> 00:24:14.079
<v Speaker 2>but this is the campaign. Debates are important and, you know,

482
00:24:14.539 --> 00:24:17.220
<v Speaker 2>going viral is important and raising money is important, but

483
00:24:17.279 --> 00:24:20.740
<v Speaker 2>that all that matters is this set of six states.

484
00:24:21.920 --> 00:24:26.680
<v Speaker 2>And that is the presidential nomination process. process for us. Now,

485
00:24:26.880 --> 00:24:29.140
<v Speaker 2>is it possible that we have two candidates of equal

486
00:24:29.200 --> 00:24:34.130
<v Speaker 2>strength leaving Virginia? Maybe. But as we saw back in 2008,

487
00:24:34.130 --> 00:24:36.950
<v Speaker 2>as close as that race was, we had a delegate advantage.

488
00:24:36.990 --> 00:24:39.589
<v Speaker 2>So that's the other thing. Whoever exits Virginia with the

489
00:24:39.650 --> 00:24:42.960
<v Speaker 2>most momentum will probably do best on Super Tuesday. They

490
00:24:43.000 --> 00:24:46.059
<v Speaker 2>will then have a delegate advantage, which may not look huge,

491
00:24:46.740 --> 00:24:49.019
<v Speaker 2>but even if it's 80 or 90 delegates, they'll never

492
00:24:49.059 --> 00:24:50.980
<v Speaker 2>be caught. They're going to be our nominees.

493
00:24:51.259 --> 00:24:53.140
<v Speaker 1>Well, I want to go through state by state just

494
00:24:53.160 --> 00:24:56.680
<v Speaker 1>because it's fun to nerd out on this. On South Carolina,

495
00:24:57.059 --> 00:24:59.849
<v Speaker 1>so I do think that's interesting. So there's the if

496
00:24:59.869 --> 00:25:04.789
<v Speaker 1>Kamala runs, if she doesn't run. But if she does run,

497
00:25:04.950 --> 00:25:08.089
<v Speaker 1>maybe you're planning your campaign. Maybe you're planning it to win,

498
00:25:08.109 --> 00:25:10.589
<v Speaker 1>but you're trying to get two or three. Is it

499
00:25:10.670 --> 00:25:13.230
<v Speaker 1>wrong for people to assume, because this is the conventional wisdom,

500
00:25:13.630 --> 00:25:16.430
<v Speaker 1>that most black voters will ultimately vote for Kamala or

501
00:25:16.509 --> 00:25:19.789
<v Speaker 1>other black candidates if they run? Or do you think,

502
00:25:19.910 --> 00:25:22.819
<v Speaker 1>even in South Carolina... black vote's more up for grabs

503
00:25:23.240 --> 00:25:23.940
<v Speaker 1>than people might think?

504
00:25:24.339 --> 00:25:26.309
<v Speaker 2>I think it's totally up for grabs. I mean, if

505
00:25:26.369 --> 00:25:29.650
<v Speaker 2>she runs, just she starts in such a dominating position. Now,

506
00:25:29.690 --> 00:25:32.029
<v Speaker 2>of course, and this isn't a criticism from her, it's

507
00:25:32.049 --> 00:25:34.730
<v Speaker 2>just the reality. Her strongest day will be her first

508
00:25:34.750 --> 00:25:39.420
<v Speaker 2>day in the campaign. And then that support, she'll obviously

509
00:25:39.440 --> 00:25:42.700
<v Speaker 2>try and hold onto it, but there'll be natural competition

510
00:25:42.740 --> 00:25:44.420
<v Speaker 2>for it and there'll probably be some erosion. So no,

511
00:25:44.480 --> 00:25:47.559
<v Speaker 2>I think it's a completely open question, even if she runs.

512
00:25:47.900 --> 00:25:50.259
<v Speaker 2>And I think the other candidate's should not be trying

513
00:25:50.279 --> 00:25:52.140
<v Speaker 2>to come in second or third. They should be trying

514
00:25:52.220 --> 00:25:54.220
<v Speaker 2>to win. And if they don't and they come in

515
00:25:54.279 --> 00:25:56.460
<v Speaker 2>second or third, then they may have the ability to continue.

516
00:25:57.440 --> 00:26:02.880
<v Speaker 2>If she doesn't run, then I think black voters in

517
00:26:02.940 --> 00:26:07.549
<v Speaker 2>South Carolina and everywhere else, clearly they're completely wide open.

518
00:26:08.109 --> 00:26:11.430
<v Speaker 2>So no, I do not believe. I think older black

519
00:26:11.470 --> 00:26:14.769
<v Speaker 2>voters in South Carolina will be like older white voters

520
00:26:15.259 --> 00:26:18.099
<v Speaker 2>in the upper peninsula of Michigan and Latino voters in

521
00:26:18.119 --> 00:26:20.140
<v Speaker 2>New Mexico and Nevada, they want to win back the

522
00:26:20.180 --> 00:26:23.240
<v Speaker 2>White House. And so I think they're going to be

523
00:26:23.259 --> 00:26:26.960
<v Speaker 2>very focused. And listen, I think the key thing here is,

524
00:26:27.480 --> 00:26:30.529
<v Speaker 2>is this is an audition. It's a performance. I don't

525
00:26:30.549 --> 00:26:33.430
<v Speaker 2>think this is how we should audition our next commander

526
00:26:33.450 --> 00:26:36.289
<v Speaker 2>in chief, but it's all we've got. And so the

527
00:26:36.309 --> 00:26:39.089
<v Speaker 2>thing I'm really looking for is who is showing the

528
00:26:39.150 --> 00:26:42.599
<v Speaker 2>signs of of having the ability to communicate in a

529
00:26:42.640 --> 00:26:45.980
<v Speaker 2>way that people are getting information today, that they're interesting,

530
00:26:46.000 --> 00:26:49.599
<v Speaker 2>they get people talking about them. AOC clearly has that instinctively.

531
00:26:49.940 --> 00:26:53.579
<v Speaker 2>I think Ossoff, at least on a speechmaking front, has that.

532
00:26:54.220 --> 00:26:56.779
<v Speaker 2>So we'll see. But I think that that has become

533
00:26:56.859 --> 00:27:00.180
<v Speaker 2>really important because, you know, it's not about giving interviews.

534
00:27:00.259 --> 00:27:03.380
<v Speaker 2>It's not about giving speeches. They're still important. But the

535
00:27:03.420 --> 00:27:07.460
<v Speaker 2>most important thing is, you know, this phone is the campaign. Yeah.

536
00:27:07.990 --> 00:27:10.109
<v Speaker 2>And how are you utilizing it each and every day

537
00:27:10.170 --> 00:27:15.430
<v Speaker 2>in interesting ways to reach tough-to-reach voters? And I think

538
00:27:15.829 --> 00:27:20.410
<v Speaker 2>that that is something that I think is really going

539
00:27:20.430 --> 00:27:24.299
<v Speaker 2>to be important to understand, which is you mentioned questions

540
00:27:24.339 --> 00:27:27.720
<v Speaker 2>about ideology and races they might have run and won before.

541
00:27:27.779 --> 00:27:30.420
<v Speaker 2>All of that's important. The most important thing is in

542
00:27:30.500 --> 00:27:33.119
<v Speaker 2>this particular moment, in the fourth quarter of 27 and

543
00:27:33.140 --> 00:27:35.319
<v Speaker 2>the first quarter of 28, how are they performing?

544
00:27:36.490 --> 00:27:39.769
<v Speaker 1>The other thing I worried about– I wondered about in

545
00:27:39.809 --> 00:27:42.930
<v Speaker 1>South Carolina because it will be the state where the

546
00:27:42.990 --> 00:27:46.289
<v Speaker 1>most candidates are competing is– and of course we have

547
00:27:46.309 --> 00:27:50.029
<v Speaker 1>to see the composition of the field. But the conventional

548
00:27:50.069 --> 00:27:52.279
<v Speaker 1>wisdom and I think there's a lot of wisdom to

549
00:27:52.319 --> 00:27:55.420
<v Speaker 1>this is that it is a more moderate electorate in

550
00:27:55.559 --> 00:27:59.680
<v Speaker 1>South Carolina. It certainly seems that way. Older black voters,

551
00:28:00.579 --> 00:28:05.140
<v Speaker 1>rural voters. But if there's that many candidates– You do

552
00:28:05.240 --> 00:28:10.269
<v Speaker 1>wonder if there's only one or two like really progressive candidates,

553
00:28:10.450 --> 00:28:13.250
<v Speaker 1>if they could do better than expected because so many

554
00:28:13.289 --> 00:28:16.089
<v Speaker 1>of the center left candidates are splitting all the rest

555
00:28:16.130 --> 00:28:16.509
<v Speaker 1>of the vote.

556
00:28:16.869 --> 00:28:20.289
<v Speaker 2>We'll see. I mean, history would suggest that there's going

557
00:28:20.309 --> 00:28:23.230
<v Speaker 2>to be a candidate who becomes the favorite for younger

558
00:28:23.289 --> 00:28:24.049
<v Speaker 2>progressive voters.

559
00:28:24.470 --> 00:28:25.019
<v Speaker 1>Right.

560
00:28:25.059 --> 00:28:26.940
<v Speaker 2>You know, if AOC were to run, I think it's

561
00:28:26.980 --> 00:28:29.079
<v Speaker 2>going to be her. And then her question will be,

562
00:28:29.279 --> 00:28:31.059
<v Speaker 2>how do I build from there? I mean, she'd probably

563
00:28:31.099 --> 00:28:33.900
<v Speaker 2>start with a very enviable base if it's not her.

564
00:28:34.789 --> 00:28:37.910
<v Speaker 2>then I think it's open question, right? And I don't

565
00:28:37.930 --> 00:28:40.240
<v Speaker 2>see anybody out there right now that's kind of a

566
00:28:40.299 --> 00:28:45.220
<v Speaker 2>natural place for 80, 90% of that cohort to land.

567
00:28:45.700 --> 00:28:48.880
<v Speaker 2>So I think that's a great question, but I do

568
00:28:48.920 --> 00:28:53.660
<v Speaker 2>think that South Carolina has never been first. It's always

569
00:28:53.700 --> 00:28:56.109
<v Speaker 2>been the end of the calendar. It's the gateway to

570
00:28:56.150 --> 00:28:58.410
<v Speaker 2>the rest of the country. So this time it's the

571
00:28:58.430 --> 00:29:01.769
<v Speaker 2>first one. But it's a small enough state too where

572
00:29:02.170 --> 00:29:06.490
<v Speaker 2>retail skills will matter. So, you know, that's part of

573
00:29:06.529 --> 00:29:08.630
<v Speaker 2>performance too, by the way. And of course, if you

574
00:29:08.650 --> 00:29:11.140
<v Speaker 2>have good engagement with voters in a diner or a

575
00:29:11.150 --> 00:29:14.440
<v Speaker 2>bar or a farm, that turns into great content. So

576
00:29:14.700 --> 00:29:19.799
<v Speaker 2>I do think that, you know, as you know, it's

577
00:29:19.859 --> 00:29:22.619
<v Speaker 2>a decathlon and you don't have to be the best

578
00:29:22.680 --> 00:29:25.920
<v Speaker 2>at every event, but you've got to be good enough

579
00:29:26.180 --> 00:29:30.539
<v Speaker 2>at all of them to navigate this. I mean, it's interesting, John.

580
00:29:30.559 --> 00:29:32.799
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I like you. I have a lot of

581
00:29:32.839 --> 00:29:37.029
<v Speaker 2>friends who are data geeks and they'll say, well, the

582
00:29:37.069 --> 00:29:38.880
<v Speaker 2>most important thing as we think about who we should

583
00:29:38.900 --> 00:29:42.640
<v Speaker 2>nominate is, you know, basically who has the higher wins

584
00:29:42.680 --> 00:29:46.349
<v Speaker 2>against replacement, you know, in their state. And I'm like, yes,

585
00:29:46.410 --> 00:29:49.150
<v Speaker 2>that's important. That shows. But but this is a whole

586
00:29:49.190 --> 00:29:52.210
<v Speaker 2>different beast now. I mean, the political graveyard is littered

587
00:29:52.269 --> 00:29:54.549
<v Speaker 2>with people who looked on paper like they would be

588
00:29:54.589 --> 00:29:57.670
<v Speaker 2>great presidential candidates. Most people can't survive it. It's a brutal,

589
00:29:57.930 --> 00:29:58.869
<v Speaker 2>brutal process.

590
00:29:59.130 --> 00:30:03.240
<v Speaker 1>I think also the delta between being governor of a state,

591
00:30:03.779 --> 00:30:06.779
<v Speaker 1>probably a small state or big state, and being a

592
00:30:06.839 --> 00:30:10.980
<v Speaker 1>national candidate and what's required to succeed at each has

593
00:30:11.059 --> 00:30:13.500
<v Speaker 1>never been larger just because of the information environment.

594
00:30:14.079 --> 00:30:15.220
<v Speaker 2>Totally. I agree with that.

595
00:30:15.619 --> 00:30:17.910
<v Speaker 1>So I have a question about momentum, which is like

596
00:30:18.630 --> 00:30:22.190
<v Speaker 1>the momentum you get Out of the early state primary wins,

597
00:30:22.730 --> 00:30:25.970
<v Speaker 1>arguably more important than the delegates at that stage. Yes.

598
00:30:27.200 --> 00:30:30.079
<v Speaker 1>Momentum is largely dependent on whether or not you beat

599
00:30:30.160 --> 00:30:32.940
<v Speaker 1>expectations in a given state other than just outright winning.

600
00:30:33.799 --> 00:30:36.990
<v Speaker 1>As a campaign, how do you even begin to set

601
00:30:37.069 --> 00:30:40.710
<v Speaker 1>or manage expectations with a completely new calendar like this?

602
00:30:41.289 --> 00:30:45.869
<v Speaker 1>You don't have reporters– With muscle memory of what these

603
00:30:45.910 --> 00:30:48.009
<v Speaker 1>states did before and what it was like, like, what

604
00:30:48.049 --> 00:30:50.410
<v Speaker 1>does that even look like to start setting expectations as

605
00:30:50.450 --> 00:30:50.910
<v Speaker 1>a campaign?

606
00:30:51.390 --> 00:30:54.059
<v Speaker 2>I think it's really hard to set expectations. They get

607
00:30:54.119 --> 00:30:58.519
<v Speaker 2>set for you. Yeah. So even like regionally, I mean, let's,

608
00:30:58.759 --> 00:31:01.960
<v Speaker 2>you know, if Bashir runs, he's going to be expected

609
00:31:02.519 --> 00:31:05.500
<v Speaker 2>to do relatively well in South Carolina, fairly or unfairly.

610
00:31:05.680 --> 00:31:06.660
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

611
00:31:06.680 --> 00:31:10.400
<v Speaker 2>Gavin Newsom, Mark Kelly. Yeah, right. Out West in Nevada,

612
00:31:10.440 --> 00:31:13.900
<v Speaker 2>New Mexico. So there'll be regional expectations there. obviously there

613
00:31:13.920 --> 00:31:16.859
<v Speaker 2>are expectations put on front runners or people who had

614
00:31:16.940 --> 00:31:19.599
<v Speaker 2>strong pole positions. And if they underperform in the first

615
00:31:19.619 --> 00:31:22.250
<v Speaker 2>couple of states, they'll pay an outsized price for that.

616
00:31:22.869 --> 00:31:28.890
<v Speaker 2>So I think it's really hard for a candidate to

617
00:31:28.930 --> 00:31:32.380
<v Speaker 2>set expectations. Now, I think when you're right before a contest,

618
00:31:32.910 --> 00:31:35.220
<v Speaker 2>so maybe it's a week before South Carolina and a

619
00:31:35.240 --> 00:31:37.799
<v Speaker 2>candidate doesn't think they're going to win South Carolina, but

620
00:31:37.839 --> 00:31:39.859
<v Speaker 2>thinks they're going to come in second or third, they'll

621
00:31:39.880 --> 00:31:42.619
<v Speaker 2>start talking about, well, that's exactly what we needed to

622
00:31:42.660 --> 00:31:47.130
<v Speaker 2>go forward to Nevada. So there's expectations, I think, right

623
00:31:47.210 --> 00:31:51.890
<v Speaker 2>before and after contests that can be important. But, you know,

624
00:31:51.950 --> 00:31:54.930
<v Speaker 2>it's a free-for-all. So I think it's really going to

625
00:31:54.970 --> 00:32:00.019
<v Speaker 2>be hard. And the point is, like, surviving a state

626
00:32:00.279 --> 00:32:03.720
<v Speaker 2>is not the same as having a chance to win. So,

627
00:32:03.859 --> 00:32:06.000
<v Speaker 2>you know, you know this historically. There'll be somebody, oh,

628
00:32:06.059 --> 00:32:09.279
<v Speaker 2>how many tickets out of Iowa or New Hampshire? Yeah.

629
00:32:09.359 --> 00:32:11.140
<v Speaker 2>People may be able to keep going so they can

630
00:32:11.180 --> 00:32:13.309
<v Speaker 2>go to the next debate and not drop out, but

631
00:32:13.329 --> 00:32:14.849
<v Speaker 2>they have no chance of winning. And so that's what

632
00:32:14.910 --> 00:32:17.329
<v Speaker 2>really matters is when we get out of South Carolina,

633
00:32:17.910 --> 00:32:20.049
<v Speaker 2>who's actually got a chance to be the nominee. And

634
00:32:20.089 --> 00:32:22.049
<v Speaker 2>my guess is that most that would be three people.

635
00:32:22.089 --> 00:32:22.670
<v Speaker 2>It could be two.

636
00:32:22.970 --> 00:32:23.650
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

637
00:32:23.990 --> 00:32:26.490
<v Speaker 2>And to your point about delegates, right. Although now, because

638
00:32:26.559 --> 00:32:28.339
<v Speaker 2>some of these states are bigger and we have six states,

639
00:32:28.619 --> 00:32:30.359
<v Speaker 2>I think maybe 10 percent of the delegates will be

640
00:32:30.400 --> 00:32:32.299
<v Speaker 2>in the first six states. So if somebody were to

641
00:32:32.319 --> 00:32:35.119
<v Speaker 2>somehow exit Virginia with 30 or 40 delegate lead, that's

642
00:32:35.160 --> 00:32:38.279
<v Speaker 2>not immaterial. But I agree with you. The delegate story

643
00:32:38.319 --> 00:32:39.440
<v Speaker 2>begins on Super Tuesday.

644
00:32:39.579 --> 00:32:43.259
<v Speaker 1>So Nevada comes after South Carolina 10 days later. It

645
00:32:43.900 --> 00:32:46.680
<v Speaker 1>is a primary for the first time, not a caucus.

646
00:32:47.140 --> 00:32:52.609
<v Speaker 1>So completely new race, a lot more voters. What does

647
00:32:52.630 --> 00:32:55.990
<v Speaker 1>that look like in Nevada with everyone? I assume everyone

648
00:32:56.029 --> 00:32:58.730
<v Speaker 1>then is trying to take down the winner of South Carolina.

649
00:32:58.809 --> 00:32:59.430
<v Speaker 2>Oh, God, yeah.

650
00:32:59.490 --> 00:33:02.930
<v Speaker 1>It's going to be brutal, brutal 10 days. So that

651
00:33:02.950 --> 00:33:05.849
<v Speaker 1>seems like– and I also think that the conventional wisdom

652
00:33:05.890 --> 00:33:08.990
<v Speaker 1>there is it might be good for progressives. But I

653
00:33:09.039 --> 00:33:11.480
<v Speaker 1>kind of think that's a view of what the caucus

654
00:33:11.500 --> 00:33:14.700
<v Speaker 1>was like, right, where it's easier to organize and have

655
00:33:15.259 --> 00:33:17.440
<v Speaker 1>highly engaged activists turn out at a caucus than it

656
00:33:17.480 --> 00:33:21.460
<v Speaker 1>is a primary. And Nevada, the electorate there is– it's

657
00:33:21.519 --> 00:33:24.779
<v Speaker 1>not super lefty when you get– when you're looking at

658
00:33:24.819 --> 00:33:26.799
<v Speaker 1>the whole state, especially since this is a state now

659
00:33:26.839 --> 00:33:28.180
<v Speaker 1>where they mail everyone a ballot.

660
00:33:28.200 --> 00:33:28.279
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

661
00:33:28.740 --> 00:33:28.900
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

662
00:33:29.410 --> 00:33:31.910
<v Speaker 2>So I think it was a strong state for Bernie

663
00:33:31.950 --> 00:33:35.380
<v Speaker 2>both times he ran. By the way, so was Michigan.

664
00:33:36.059 --> 00:33:40.859
<v Speaker 2>So there are two states where I think if you

665
00:33:40.960 --> 00:33:44.339
<v Speaker 2>are a progressive candidate, that gives you some, I think, comfort.

666
00:33:44.359 --> 00:33:46.920
<v Speaker 2>But you're right. Nevada is a fascinating state. I mean,

667
00:33:46.960 --> 00:33:50.250
<v Speaker 2>it's a very diverse state. A lot of people just

668
00:33:50.329 --> 00:33:55.869
<v Speaker 2>moving into the state. So transient population, got heavy union population,

669
00:33:56.309 --> 00:34:00.720
<v Speaker 2>obviously a large number of Latino voters. pretty significant number

670
00:34:00.900 --> 00:34:04.220
<v Speaker 2>of black voters. You've got rural upstate. So it's going

671
00:34:04.240 --> 00:34:07.859
<v Speaker 2>to be a test. And it's also like Nevada. So

672
00:34:07.920 --> 00:34:10.599
<v Speaker 2>it's going to be an absolute freak show. Like those

673
00:34:10.599 --> 00:34:12.130
<v Speaker 2>10 days are going to be, I think, some of

674
00:34:12.139 --> 00:34:14.610
<v Speaker 2>the most fascinating 10 days we've seen in American politics.

675
00:34:16.230 --> 00:34:18.530
<v Speaker 2>So because you're right, whoever comes out of South Carolina

676
00:34:18.570 --> 00:34:21.510
<v Speaker 2>with momentum, the challenge of the other candidates is to

677
00:34:21.550 --> 00:34:27.920
<v Speaker 2>deny them that momentum in Nevada. So it's also a relatively...

678
00:34:28.269 --> 00:34:31.860
<v Speaker 2>small state geographically and population wise. So you're, you're organizing

679
00:34:31.900 --> 00:34:34.860
<v Speaker 2>matters there. You know, you're going to have a lot

680
00:34:34.940 --> 00:34:38.769
<v Speaker 2>of probably first time registrants to go after there. So, so,

681
00:34:38.929 --> 00:34:42.090
<v Speaker 2>so what's interesting is if the person who wins South

682
00:34:42.130 --> 00:34:47.309
<v Speaker 2>Carolina and almost, almost, Not, I guess, guaranteed, but it's

683
00:34:47.429 --> 00:34:49.550
<v Speaker 2>almost definite that person did really well with the black vote.

684
00:34:49.590 --> 00:34:52.309
<v Speaker 2>The question is, in Nevada, are they basically able to

685
00:34:52.349 --> 00:34:54.010
<v Speaker 2>get the same vote share with the black vote or

686
00:34:54.050 --> 00:34:56.820
<v Speaker 2>maybe grow it? Are they doing well with the Latino vote?

687
00:34:57.139 --> 00:34:59.239
<v Speaker 2>How are they doing with union vote? So it's going

688
00:34:59.260 --> 00:35:03.179
<v Speaker 2>to be really interesting. And I think that the other

689
00:35:03.219 --> 00:35:05.360
<v Speaker 2>candidates are obviously going to try and improve their vote

690
00:35:05.389 --> 00:35:07.130
<v Speaker 2>share with black voters, but show that they've got the

691
00:35:07.150 --> 00:35:09.719
<v Speaker 2>ability to do well with Latino voters. with union voters.

692
00:35:10.039 --> 00:35:12.480
<v Speaker 2>By the way, you know, there's big suburbs, Henderson and

693
00:35:12.519 --> 00:35:14.539
<v Speaker 2>places like that too. So a lot of suburban vote.

694
00:35:15.590 --> 00:35:18.489
<v Speaker 2>So you may begin to learn something about that as

695
00:35:18.530 --> 00:35:22.469
<v Speaker 2>it relates to Michigan suburbs and Albuquerque suburbs and Northern

696
00:35:22.489 --> 00:35:25.090
<v Speaker 2>Virginia suburbs later in the calendar. Because by the way,

697
00:35:25.130 --> 00:35:27.590
<v Speaker 2>what happens in the early states, you know, you can

698
00:35:27.610 --> 00:35:30.309
<v Speaker 2>have sea change, but like I'll always remember, you know,

699
00:35:30.349 --> 00:35:34.539
<v Speaker 2>back in 08, John, when we won Iowa, as great

700
00:35:34.579 --> 00:35:36.940
<v Speaker 2>a night as that was, when you looked at the

701
00:35:37.019 --> 00:35:40.050
<v Speaker 2>counties along the Missouri border, We were just getting our

702
00:35:40.230 --> 00:35:40.670
<v Speaker 2>ass kicked.

703
00:35:40.909 --> 00:35:41.150
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

704
00:35:41.429 --> 00:35:45.030
<v Speaker 2>Like Edwards and Clinton killed us. And that was, interestingly enough,

705
00:35:45.090 --> 00:35:48.659
<v Speaker 2>even though the story was, you know, overwhelmingly white voters

706
00:35:48.679 --> 00:35:50.539
<v Speaker 2>in Iowa chose Obama and they did. And it was

707
00:35:50.579 --> 00:35:52.460
<v Speaker 2>a big part of how we won. Some of the

708
00:35:52.500 --> 00:35:54.420
<v Speaker 2>challenges we had in other parts of the primary and

709
00:35:54.460 --> 00:35:57.559
<v Speaker 2>then even in the general around race, you saw that

710
00:35:57.639 --> 00:36:01.800
<v Speaker 2>night along the Iowa-Missouri border. So you begin to see

711
00:36:01.909 --> 00:36:04.369
<v Speaker 2>patterns that emerge and you can begin to get a

712
00:36:04.389 --> 00:36:06.650
<v Speaker 2>sense of, OK, that person has strength and they've got weaknesses.

713
00:36:06.929 --> 00:36:08.570
<v Speaker 2>But Nevada is going to be great for that because

714
00:36:08.639 --> 00:36:10.820
<v Speaker 2>it's such a diverse state. It has a lot of

715
00:36:10.860 --> 00:36:12.900
<v Speaker 2>the types of voters that you need to win the nomination.

716
00:36:20.840 --> 00:36:23.559
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717
00:36:23.599 --> 00:36:26.199
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718
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720
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721
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723
00:36:39.579 --> 00:36:43.340
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724
00:36:43.400 --> 00:36:46.119
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725
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726
00:36:49.460 --> 00:36:53.210
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727
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729
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730
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731
00:37:06.559 --> 00:37:09.389
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732
00:37:09.869 --> 00:37:13.150
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733
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734
00:37:16.050 --> 00:37:20.750
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736
00:37:23.119 --> 00:37:24.880
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737
00:37:25.179 --> 00:37:27.219
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738
00:37:27.280 --> 00:37:35.559
<v Speaker 1>no safe like SimpliSafe. So the big question about New

739
00:37:35.599 --> 00:37:39.280
<v Speaker 1>Hampshire is right now whether it happens. We've talked about

740
00:37:39.300 --> 00:37:41.559
<v Speaker 1>this on the pod, so most people know. But it

741
00:37:41.599 --> 00:37:45.090
<v Speaker 1>seems like the two options here are now either the

742
00:37:45.190 --> 00:37:49.670
<v Speaker 1>Democratic Party pays to hold a separate primary or the

743
00:37:49.710 --> 00:37:53.210
<v Speaker 1>New Hampshire primary doesn't happen. And then maybe your home

744
00:37:53.230 --> 00:37:56.670
<v Speaker 1>state of Delaware gets the nod. How do you think

745
00:37:56.690 --> 00:37:59.070
<v Speaker 1>this will shake out? Because it's sort of tough to

746
00:37:59.139 --> 00:38:01.639
<v Speaker 1>read the tea leaves here based on the comments from

747
00:38:01.760 --> 00:38:02.460
<v Speaker 1>people in New Hampshire.

748
00:38:02.480 --> 00:38:05.650
<v Speaker 2>Sure. Well, I mean, New Hampshire can either be relevant

749
00:38:05.750 --> 00:38:08.510
<v Speaker 2>at number three or irrelevant with a contest that no

750
00:38:08.570 --> 00:38:10.469
<v Speaker 2>one competes in if they insist on doing it early.

751
00:38:11.340 --> 00:38:13.840
<v Speaker 2>So it seems to me, commonsensically, I know it's a

752
00:38:13.840 --> 00:38:16.099
<v Speaker 2>tough pill for them to swallow. They should go three.

753
00:38:16.800 --> 00:38:19.659
<v Speaker 2>If they don't, then I would just sub Delaware in,

754
00:38:19.739 --> 00:38:22.460
<v Speaker 2>which is not a battleground state, but it is a

755
00:38:22.500 --> 00:38:25.780
<v Speaker 2>small state, has some diversity, not really a huge number

756
00:38:25.800 --> 00:38:30.619
<v Speaker 2>of Latino voters. But I think... you know, hopefully the

757
00:38:30.659 --> 00:38:33.380
<v Speaker 2>folks in New Hampshire come to their senses and understand that,

758
00:38:33.800 --> 00:38:36.800
<v Speaker 2>you know, being three, by the way, you know, so

759
00:38:36.840 --> 00:38:39.739
<v Speaker 2>you have, you know, we'll have a winnowed field by

760
00:38:39.780 --> 00:38:42.400
<v Speaker 2>that point. Like, you know, New Hampshire is going to

761
00:38:42.440 --> 00:38:45.480
<v Speaker 2>be really, really important. You know, is it, and by

762
00:38:45.500 --> 00:38:47.019
<v Speaker 2>the way, we could have a different winner in New

763
00:38:47.059 --> 00:38:49.679
<v Speaker 2>Hampshire than we do have in the first two states,

764
00:38:50.409 --> 00:38:54.050
<v Speaker 2>which makes them incredibly relevant. So, so we'll see. But

765
00:38:54.159 --> 00:38:55.969
<v Speaker 2>I think at the end of the day, it's just,

766
00:38:56.289 --> 00:38:59.570
<v Speaker 2>it's nonsense to me that you would give up any

767
00:38:59.610 --> 00:39:03.329
<v Speaker 2>of your power and leverage to have a contest that

768
00:39:03.429 --> 00:39:04.369
<v Speaker 2>no one's going to compete in.

769
00:39:04.550 --> 00:39:07.110
<v Speaker 1>And I know that the other complaint then is, well,

770
00:39:07.130 --> 00:39:08.210
<v Speaker 1>it costs a lot of money and we don't have

771
00:39:08.250 --> 00:39:10.719
<v Speaker 1>that money. It feels like between the state party and

772
00:39:10.739 --> 00:39:13.429
<v Speaker 1>the national party, though some money problems there as well,

773
00:39:14.480 --> 00:39:16.940
<v Speaker 1>between all of these, you're going to be able to find,

774
00:39:16.960 --> 00:39:19.679
<v Speaker 1>they'll be able to scrounge up the money to hold

775
00:39:19.719 --> 00:39:20.400
<v Speaker 1>this primary.

776
00:39:21.099 --> 00:39:22.920
<v Speaker 2>I would imagine so. I would imagine so.

777
00:39:23.199 --> 00:39:25.320
<v Speaker 1>The other question I had about New Hampshire is, would

778
00:39:25.340 --> 00:39:28.059
<v Speaker 1>you say that if by the end of New Hampshire,

779
00:39:28.119 --> 00:39:32.539
<v Speaker 1>after New Hampshire happens, If you. haven't won outright, either

780
00:39:32.960 --> 00:39:36.619
<v Speaker 1>South Carolina, Nevada, or New Hampshire, you're done?

781
00:39:37.360 --> 00:39:39.630
<v Speaker 2>Yes. And here's what's interesting. Now, of course, Joe Biden

782
00:39:40.670 --> 00:39:43.250
<v Speaker 2>performed very poorly in 2020 in the first two states,

783
00:39:43.590 --> 00:39:45.489
<v Speaker 2>but he did come in second in Nevada, which is,

784
00:39:45.670 --> 00:39:48.920
<v Speaker 2>I think, underappreciated. If he hadn't done that, I'm not

785
00:39:48.960 --> 00:39:51.400
<v Speaker 2>sure like Jim Clyburn endorses him, but you know, he

786
00:39:51.440 --> 00:39:54.519
<v Speaker 2>then became, okay. Showing a little bit of, of, of life.

787
00:39:55.039 --> 00:39:58.289
<v Speaker 2>The reason I think that's true is like in, in

788
00:39:58.329 --> 00:40:02.869
<v Speaker 2>that case, he had no one, particularly Bernie had been

789
00:40:02.889 --> 00:40:08.329
<v Speaker 2>able to claim or earn enough support in the black community.

790
00:40:08.750 --> 00:40:10.889
<v Speaker 2>So it was waiting for Biden to kind of resuscitate.

791
00:40:11.150 --> 00:40:11.360
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

792
00:40:11.679 --> 00:40:13.960
<v Speaker 2>In this case, you're going to have South Carolina first.

793
00:40:14.639 --> 00:40:17.360
<v Speaker 2>So he, you know, the notion that you wouldn't have

794
00:40:17.400 --> 00:40:19.809
<v Speaker 2>won South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, but somehow you're going

795
00:40:19.849 --> 00:40:23.269
<v Speaker 2>to be able to go win Virginia, to me, kind

796
00:40:23.309 --> 00:40:25.329
<v Speaker 2>of strange credulous. So I think it's going to be,

797
00:40:26.489 --> 00:40:29.170
<v Speaker 2>you know, and the odds are at that point, maybe

798
00:40:29.190 --> 00:40:32.829
<v Speaker 2>you have three candidates of equal strength, but history suggests

799
00:40:32.889 --> 00:40:35.639
<v Speaker 2>it's probably going to be more like two. And of course,

800
00:40:35.679 --> 00:40:37.719
<v Speaker 2>by the way, if somebody wins the first three states,

801
00:40:37.760 --> 00:40:40.119
<v Speaker 2>so if they're able to win South, doing well with

802
00:40:40.159 --> 00:40:43.460
<v Speaker 2>black voters, West, really diverse state with a heavy Latino

803
00:40:43.480 --> 00:40:46.590
<v Speaker 2>population and New Hampshire, which has always been a contrary state,

804
00:40:46.760 --> 00:40:50.389
<v Speaker 2>then it's over, right? But I agree with that, John.

805
00:40:50.489 --> 00:40:53.309
<v Speaker 2>I think this calendar is different in that way, which

806
00:40:53.409 --> 00:40:55.889
<v Speaker 2>is the person who has the most strength with the

807
00:40:55.929 --> 00:40:58.130
<v Speaker 2>black vote in the old calendar could get dinged up

808
00:40:58.150 --> 00:41:00.369
<v Speaker 2>a little bit and then know they had South Carolina

809
00:41:00.409 --> 00:41:02.269
<v Speaker 2>hanging out there. That's not the case this time.

810
00:41:02.429 --> 00:41:04.190
<v Speaker 1>So then by the time we get to New Mexico,

811
00:41:04.730 --> 00:41:10.869
<v Speaker 1>you've got like two or three serious candidates left, max, right?

812
00:41:11.969 --> 00:41:16.409
<v Speaker 1>And then this is a completely new early state, highest

813
00:41:16.449 --> 00:41:20.090
<v Speaker 1>percentage of Latinos of any state in the country. Not

814
00:41:20.110 --> 00:41:22.590
<v Speaker 1>the early states. I didn't realize that of any state,

815
00:41:22.769 --> 00:41:28.380
<v Speaker 1>like 49, 50 percent Latinos. Maybe more moderate, especially on

816
00:41:28.420 --> 00:41:31.380
<v Speaker 1>crime and immigration. It's a border state. Like what does

817
00:41:31.420 --> 00:41:33.900
<v Speaker 1>that race look like when you get to New Mexico

818
00:41:33.920 --> 00:41:36.579
<v Speaker 1>with two or three people considering that electorate?

819
00:41:37.050 --> 00:41:39.550
<v Speaker 2>Well, you know, what's interesting about that is, you know,

820
00:41:39.630 --> 00:41:42.230
<v Speaker 2>this is all fictitious kind of bullshit. But let's say,

821
00:41:42.670 --> 00:41:44.610
<v Speaker 2>you know, there is a candidate who comes in second

822
00:41:44.630 --> 00:41:47.130
<v Speaker 2>or third in South Carolina, Nevada, but they win New Hampshire.

823
00:41:47.710 --> 00:41:50.489
<v Speaker 2>You know, that's for them to show that they've got

824
00:41:50.530 --> 00:41:53.670
<v Speaker 2>the ability to grow their coalition. And in this case,

825
00:41:54.610 --> 00:41:57.659
<v Speaker 2>it would be with Latino voters. New Mexico becomes really,

826
00:41:57.679 --> 00:42:00.579
<v Speaker 2>really important. So the other way I look at it

827
00:42:00.659 --> 00:42:03.260
<v Speaker 2>is if you've won Nevada, you better also win New Mexico,

828
00:42:03.639 --> 00:42:06.400
<v Speaker 2>because if you don't, it's going to look like, you know,

829
00:42:06.619 --> 00:42:09.739
<v Speaker 2>you're Back to your expectations thing, a sense that, oh,

830
00:42:09.780 --> 00:42:11.420
<v Speaker 2>you won in the West, now you've lost in the

831
00:42:11.460 --> 00:42:15.280
<v Speaker 2>West in a place with heavy Latino voters. So it's

832
00:42:15.340 --> 00:42:17.400
<v Speaker 2>interesting because your point, New Mexico has never been on

833
00:42:17.440 --> 00:42:20.460
<v Speaker 2>this stage and it hasn't been a battleground state in

834
00:42:20.480 --> 00:42:22.219
<v Speaker 2>a long time. So it's a state that I think

835
00:42:22.260 --> 00:42:26.090
<v Speaker 2>a lot of people don't know particularly well. So it's

836
00:42:26.150 --> 00:42:29.889
<v Speaker 2>actually a great educational opportunity for people. But again, it's

837
00:42:29.929 --> 00:42:32.969
<v Speaker 2>not a huge state either. So I think building an

838
00:42:33.690 --> 00:42:37.099
<v Speaker 2>organization there is going to be really, really important. And

839
00:42:37.139 --> 00:42:39.480
<v Speaker 2>New Mexico is the kind of state where even though

840
00:42:39.500 --> 00:42:41.719
<v Speaker 2>you're going to be very focused on South Carolina and Nevada,

841
00:42:43.030 --> 00:42:45.289
<v Speaker 2>in 2027, you're going to want to spend some time there.

842
00:42:46.250 --> 00:42:47.469
<v Speaker 2>I think that's a state you're going to want to

843
00:42:47.489 --> 00:42:48.289
<v Speaker 2>spend a lot of time in.

844
00:42:48.949 --> 00:42:52.070
<v Speaker 1>Then there's Michigan and Virginia. And I don't know, to me,

845
00:42:52.110 --> 00:42:55.750
<v Speaker 1>it seems like that's two weeks of running basically a

846
00:42:55.809 --> 00:43:00.230
<v Speaker 1>national campaign just based on their size, where they fall

847
00:43:00.250 --> 00:43:03.699
<v Speaker 1>in the calendar, the diversity of their electorates. if you

848
00:43:03.739 --> 00:43:05.760
<v Speaker 1>survive until those two, if you're like one of the

849
00:43:05.780 --> 00:43:08.820
<v Speaker 1>last two left, is that the kind of campaign you're running?

850
00:43:08.960 --> 00:43:11.159
<v Speaker 1>Like more of a national campaign at that point? Or

851
00:43:11.199 --> 00:43:11.619
<v Speaker 1>what do you think?

852
00:43:12.360 --> 00:43:14.579
<v Speaker 2>Well, I think you're going to be on the ground.

853
00:43:14.719 --> 00:43:17.139
<v Speaker 2>So the week between New Mexico and Michigan, you're probably

854
00:43:17.280 --> 00:43:21.820
<v Speaker 2>only in Michigan. Um, but I do think that, um,

855
00:43:22.400 --> 00:43:25.090
<v Speaker 2>you know, as you get deeper into that, the early States,

856
00:43:25.139 --> 00:43:28.500
<v Speaker 2>particularly now that we have six, I do think that, um,

857
00:43:29.320 --> 00:43:31.059
<v Speaker 2>it's harder. It's not like you're going to be able

858
00:43:31.079 --> 00:43:33.940
<v Speaker 2>to course correct in Michigan and like your weakness elsewhere

859
00:43:34.019 --> 00:43:37.480
<v Speaker 2>is kind of not known by voters. Like these patterns

860
00:43:37.519 --> 00:43:41.260
<v Speaker 2>emerge and expectations emerge. So I do think that the

861
00:43:41.340 --> 00:43:45.929
<v Speaker 2>national discussion, the national debate is going to be, even

862
00:43:45.969 --> 00:43:49.090
<v Speaker 2>national polls will be important. But you're going to be

863
00:43:49.150 --> 00:43:51.829
<v Speaker 2>bunkered in Michigan and then you're going to be bunkered

864
00:43:51.849 --> 00:43:55.610
<v Speaker 2>in Virginia that next week. And so, and you obviously,

865
00:43:55.630 --> 00:43:58.019
<v Speaker 2>by the way, this is a challenge for the candidates

866
00:43:58.079 --> 00:44:00.860
<v Speaker 2>because It was hard enough back when we did it

867
00:44:01.570 --> 00:44:04.010
<v Speaker 2>to like you had four. Of course, we spent most

868
00:44:04.050 --> 00:44:05.440
<v Speaker 2>of our time in Iowa, but not all of it.

869
00:44:05.730 --> 00:44:05.929
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

870
00:44:06.769 --> 00:44:08.329
<v Speaker 2>So now you've got six and some of them are

871
00:44:08.369 --> 00:44:11.090
<v Speaker 2>quite big, the last two in particular. So and then

872
00:44:11.110 --> 00:44:14.460
<v Speaker 2>you've got to build staff and organization and volunteers and

873
00:44:14.519 --> 00:44:18.699
<v Speaker 2>resource these things. But so I think that the national

874
00:44:18.760 --> 00:44:21.920
<v Speaker 2>discussion will be more important in Michigan and Virginia than

875
00:44:21.960 --> 00:44:23.320
<v Speaker 2>it is in the first two states for sure.

876
00:44:23.420 --> 00:44:24.519
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that's sort of what I was thinking.

877
00:44:24.559 --> 00:44:27.389
<v Speaker 2>Yes, I think that's right. But you're basically, you know,

878
00:44:27.550 --> 00:44:30.210
<v Speaker 2>doing seven, eight events a day in each in these states,

879
00:44:30.269 --> 00:44:34.449
<v Speaker 2>I think, during that period. And, you know, obviously, Michigan,

880
00:44:34.489 --> 00:44:37.730
<v Speaker 2>you're going to have the campuses there are incredibly important.

881
00:44:38.110 --> 00:44:40.050
<v Speaker 2>I still think the Middle Eastern and Gaza issues will

882
00:44:40.070 --> 00:44:44.269
<v Speaker 2>be important. You've obviously got a huge manufacturing sector. So,

883
00:44:44.429 --> 00:44:48.670
<v Speaker 2>you know, you know, I think that and by the way,

884
00:44:48.789 --> 00:44:51.320
<v Speaker 2>I think that, you know, There'll also be a sense

885
00:44:51.550 --> 00:44:54.469
<v Speaker 2>from voters, which is because Michigan is a big battleground state,

886
00:44:54.510 --> 00:44:57.530
<v Speaker 2>like who's kind of filling the stage? Like, you know,

887
00:44:57.889 --> 00:44:59.650
<v Speaker 2>there's still an art to this and voters have a

888
00:44:59.690 --> 00:45:01.690
<v Speaker 2>sense of like, I can imagine that person as our

889
00:45:01.730 --> 00:45:04.329
<v Speaker 2>nominee and as our president. And I think particularly as

890
00:45:04.369 --> 00:45:06.510
<v Speaker 2>you get to those last two states, that kind of

891
00:45:06.570 --> 00:45:08.409
<v Speaker 2>presence is going to be really, really important.

892
00:45:09.130 --> 00:45:11.389
<v Speaker 1>Let's talk a little bit about the candidates or potential candidates.

893
00:45:12.389 --> 00:45:15.489
<v Speaker 1>This is my bias, but I have believed for some

894
00:45:15.530 --> 00:45:18.909
<v Speaker 1>time that if you were to rank candidates the different

895
00:45:18.969 --> 00:45:22.860
<v Speaker 1>political assets a candidate could have in 2028, like number

896
00:45:23.039 --> 00:45:28.059
<v Speaker 1>one would be talent, charisma, the ability to effectively communicate,

897
00:45:28.119 --> 00:45:31.469
<v Speaker 1>get attention. I mean, I've always thought that was important, obviously,

898
00:45:31.570 --> 00:45:35.949
<v Speaker 1>but I think the information environment we're in has made

899
00:45:36.010 --> 00:45:39.269
<v Speaker 1>it just more important than ever and maybe the most

900
00:45:39.309 --> 00:45:43.050
<v Speaker 1>important political asset. Obviously, that's not to say it's the

901
00:45:43.079 --> 00:45:45.869
<v Speaker 1>best way to pick a president, right? It's not, but

902
00:45:45.909 --> 00:45:48.550
<v Speaker 1>it is reality. But I wonder what you think about that.

903
00:45:49.230 --> 00:45:53.420
<v Speaker 2>Absolutely. I mean, to me, that holds the first, you know, one,

904
00:45:53.480 --> 00:45:56.320
<v Speaker 2>two and three slots. And by the way, it's more

905
00:45:56.360 --> 00:45:59.960
<v Speaker 2>important now. But I mean, 2020 was an exception. You know,

906
00:46:00.019 --> 00:46:02.780
<v Speaker 2>I think that voters were really looking for not the

907
00:46:02.820 --> 00:46:05.599
<v Speaker 2>exciting candidate when when Biden was able to beat Trump.

908
00:46:05.659 --> 00:46:12.590
<v Speaker 2>And obviously, COVID was the driver there. But Obama, Trump, Reagan, Clinton, Kennedy,

909
00:46:12.699 --> 00:46:16.280
<v Speaker 2>like The most exciting candidate tends to 88 was another

910
00:46:16.320 --> 00:46:18.179
<v Speaker 2>exception to that, but that was a weird race, George

911
00:46:18.300 --> 00:46:19.559
<v Speaker 2>HW into caucus. Right.

912
00:46:19.579 --> 00:46:20.579
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

913
00:46:20.599 --> 00:46:23.530
<v Speaker 2>Um, so I think the most interesting candidate, the most

914
00:46:23.610 --> 00:46:28.110
<v Speaker 2>exciting candidate, the person who understands the communication modalities of

915
00:46:28.150 --> 00:46:31.829
<v Speaker 2>the moment, uh, you know, is generally in a good position.

916
00:46:31.849 --> 00:46:34.369
<v Speaker 2>I think that's even more so now. So yeah, I

917
00:46:34.409 --> 00:46:39.130
<v Speaker 2>think the ability to perform, to excite, to interest, um,

918
00:46:39.599 --> 00:46:43.619
<v Speaker 2>you know, to build trust, that is core. And I

919
00:46:43.699 --> 00:46:47.429
<v Speaker 2>think that, I think a lot of people struggle with that. Well,

920
00:46:47.449 --> 00:46:49.289
<v Speaker 2>I've got a good biography or I've won in my

921
00:46:49.369 --> 00:46:52.610
<v Speaker 2>state or I've got a great healthcare plan. It doesn't

922
00:46:52.670 --> 00:46:56.590
<v Speaker 2>matter in a presidential race. You know, it's, I mean,

923
00:46:56.630 --> 00:46:59.050
<v Speaker 2>by the way, look at 16. That was a strong

924
00:46:59.090 --> 00:47:01.389
<v Speaker 2>Republican field and Donald Trump mowed them all down. Now,

925
00:47:01.449 --> 00:47:03.150
<v Speaker 2>part of that was his party was just looking for

926
00:47:03.170 --> 00:47:05.820
<v Speaker 2>something so fundamentally different. I think our party is as well,

927
00:47:06.280 --> 00:47:10.239
<v Speaker 2>but also he was a performer. Yes. And he got it.

928
00:47:11.070 --> 00:47:13.829
<v Speaker 2>And so I think performance is the coin of the realm.

929
00:47:14.510 --> 00:47:18.349
<v Speaker 2>And I do think that it's got to be someone

930
00:47:18.530 --> 00:47:22.929
<v Speaker 2>who excels at short form vertical video. Now, if they

931
00:47:22.949 --> 00:47:25.280
<v Speaker 2>can do a three hour podcast about culture or food

932
00:47:25.320 --> 00:47:28.010
<v Speaker 2>or sports, that's awesome. They still have to be able

933
00:47:28.030 --> 00:47:30.260
<v Speaker 2>to give speeches. They have to do good local TV

934
00:47:30.280 --> 00:47:34.320
<v Speaker 2>interviews with the affiliates in Greenville, South Carolina and Reno, Nevada.

935
00:47:34.800 --> 00:47:36.820
<v Speaker 2>But the most important thing is that content that they're

936
00:47:36.840 --> 00:47:37.679
<v Speaker 2>putting out every day.

937
00:47:37.900 --> 00:47:40.579
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I also think you brought up 2020. Joe

938
00:47:40.619 --> 00:47:46.239
<v Speaker 1>Biden in that race is also someone with almost 100%

939
00:47:46.239 --> 00:47:51.300
<v Speaker 1>name ID, right? He's the vice president to Barack Obama

940
00:47:51.980 --> 00:47:55.199
<v Speaker 1>and has been on the scene for decades. Everyone knows

941
00:47:55.239 --> 00:47:58.380
<v Speaker 1>Joe Biden. And so there's a comfort there. I think

942
00:47:58.420 --> 00:48:01.719
<v Speaker 1>that we're in an information environment now where it's really

943
00:48:01.800 --> 00:48:06.679
<v Speaker 1>hard to become known nationally beyond the political junkies like

944
00:48:06.780 --> 00:48:09.579
<v Speaker 1>us and the highly engaged Democratic voters that vote in

945
00:48:09.619 --> 00:48:12.219
<v Speaker 1>the primaries we're seeing now in the special elections. There's

946
00:48:12.280 --> 00:48:15.280
<v Speaker 1>a whole world out there. And it feels like we

947
00:48:15.320 --> 00:48:18.739
<v Speaker 1>haven't had a nominee from either party in a while,

948
00:48:19.699 --> 00:48:23.449
<v Speaker 1>maybe since our boss, who just kind of came out

949
00:48:23.510 --> 00:48:27.070
<v Speaker 1>of nowhere and became nationally known. Like, there was a Clinton,

950
00:48:27.110 --> 00:48:30.610
<v Speaker 1>there was a Trump, there was like McCain, Bush, Bush.

951
00:48:30.650 --> 00:48:30.889
<v Speaker 2>Right.

952
00:48:30.949 --> 00:48:33.820
<v Speaker 1>And so like, this is maybe the first time where,

953
00:48:34.159 --> 00:48:36.239
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I guess if Kamala Harris runs, you know,

954
00:48:36.400 --> 00:48:38.699
<v Speaker 1>she ran before, so that's, she has a hundred percent

955
00:48:38.739 --> 00:48:42.019
<v Speaker 1>name ID, but beyond that sort of hard to get

956
00:48:42.539 --> 00:48:44.940
<v Speaker 1>known unless you're super talented.

957
00:48:45.400 --> 00:48:49.340
<v Speaker 2>Absolutely. It's such a great point. So, um, And by

958
00:48:49.380 --> 00:48:52.019
<v Speaker 2>the way, you can't force yourself to be known. The

959
00:48:52.059 --> 00:48:54.409
<v Speaker 2>way you'll get known is people kind of experience you

960
00:48:54.469 --> 00:48:56.550
<v Speaker 2>on their phones or their TV screens and they want

961
00:48:56.570 --> 00:48:58.769
<v Speaker 2>to know more about you. Right. And this is the

962
00:48:58.809 --> 00:49:01.849
<v Speaker 2>important thing. I mean, most the voters that will determine,

963
00:49:01.989 --> 00:49:05.349
<v Speaker 2>you know, our nominee and the presidency, you know, some

964
00:49:05.369 --> 00:49:07.210
<v Speaker 2>of them are political junkies, but a lot of them don't.

965
00:49:07.269 --> 00:49:09.219
<v Speaker 2>They kind of encounter information. They don't seek it out.

966
00:49:09.679 --> 00:49:11.659
<v Speaker 2>So but I will say one thing about the early states, though,

967
00:49:12.059 --> 00:49:15.840
<v Speaker 2>like we've historically you've seen like whether it be Iowa,

968
00:49:15.880 --> 00:49:18.639
<v Speaker 2>New Hampshire, South Carolina and the old calendar. you know,

969
00:49:18.900 --> 00:49:22.780
<v Speaker 2>they behave differently often than the national polls. So, you know,

970
00:49:22.880 --> 00:49:24.840
<v Speaker 2>it's still most important if you're running for president, like

971
00:49:24.969 --> 00:49:28.070
<v Speaker 2>in South Carolina and then Nevada, like that's where I

972
00:49:28.110 --> 00:49:31.389
<v Speaker 2>want to be known. And if I'm less known nationally,

973
00:49:31.590 --> 00:49:33.489
<v Speaker 2>you know, if there's a delta there, that's OK. To

974
00:49:33.510 --> 00:49:35.929
<v Speaker 2>your point, by Michigan, Virginia, I think those things converge.

975
00:49:36.530 --> 00:49:40.650
<v Speaker 2>But that's exactly right. And, you know, why will someone

976
00:49:40.690 --> 00:49:43.250
<v Speaker 2>come out to a town hall? Why will someone, you know,

977
00:49:43.670 --> 00:49:46.599
<v Speaker 2>look at and share your YouTube video? It's not because

978
00:49:46.659 --> 00:49:51.980
<v Speaker 2>of the what you're saying necessarily. It's kind of how

979
00:49:52.039 --> 00:49:55.079
<v Speaker 2>you connect with people. And, you know, that all comes

980
00:49:55.139 --> 00:49:58.389
<v Speaker 2>down to charisma and interest and performance and talent. And,

981
00:49:58.429 --> 00:50:01.510
<v Speaker 2>of course, a good performer doesn't look like they're performing.

982
00:50:01.530 --> 00:50:04.130
<v Speaker 2>You know, it's got to be someone who's just naturally

983
00:50:04.170 --> 00:50:04.969
<v Speaker 2>gifted in that way.

984
00:50:13.409 --> 00:50:15.909
<v Speaker 1>Today's show is sponsored by Strawberry.me. Have you ever written

985
00:50:15.929 --> 00:50:18.179
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986
00:50:18.199 --> 00:50:22.159
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987
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988
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989
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990
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991
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996
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997
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998
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999
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1000
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1001
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1002
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1003
00:51:19.239 --> 00:51:22.630
<v Speaker 1>What do you make of the Ossoff boomlet as of late?

1004
00:51:23.170 --> 00:51:28.690
<v Speaker 2>Well, he's clearly a very talented communicator. He's also he's clear.

1005
00:51:29.489 --> 00:51:32.860
<v Speaker 2>He's strong. He's direct. I think voters like that. I mean,

1006
00:51:32.900 --> 00:51:36.079
<v Speaker 2>he's in Georgia. He's not in New York or Massachusetts,

1007
00:51:36.400 --> 00:51:39.389
<v Speaker 2>I think probably indicting Trump more effectively than anybody else.

1008
00:51:39.789 --> 00:51:42.309
<v Speaker 2>There's courage that comes with that too. And he's shown

1009
00:51:42.329 --> 00:51:45.050
<v Speaker 2>the ability, I think, to really be a great speech maker.

1010
00:51:45.389 --> 00:51:49.389
<v Speaker 2>The question is, you know, in his own, you know,

1011
00:51:49.670 --> 00:51:54.139
<v Speaker 2>own content, in interviews, in town halls, I think right

1012
00:51:54.179 --> 00:51:56.280
<v Speaker 2>now he's probably not a stronger performer as he is

1013
00:51:56.360 --> 00:52:00.119
<v Speaker 2>on the speech stage. But he's also younger. And listen,

1014
00:52:00.820 --> 00:52:04.309
<v Speaker 2>our voters are so desperately For things that are new

1015
00:52:04.809 --> 00:52:07.210
<v Speaker 2>and fresh. And that's the other thing that's interesting for like,

1016
00:52:07.230 --> 00:52:08.750
<v Speaker 2>by the way, John Ossoff has said he's not going

1017
00:52:08.769 --> 00:52:11.969
<v Speaker 2>to run. Right. AOC, you know, we'll see. But like,

1018
00:52:12.889 --> 00:52:15.230
<v Speaker 2>and by the way, you probably get the same thing

1019
00:52:15.289 --> 00:52:17.699
<v Speaker 2>like from donors or reporters. I can't believe he might

1020
00:52:17.719 --> 00:52:19.139
<v Speaker 2>not run. It's like, well, it's actually a good thing

1021
00:52:19.179 --> 00:52:21.480
<v Speaker 2>if somebody really doesn't want the job that they shouldn't run. Like,

1022
00:52:22.260 --> 00:52:25.360
<v Speaker 2>let's actually applaud them. But for some of these candidates

1023
00:52:25.380 --> 00:52:28.199
<v Speaker 2>who maybe think, the one thing I'd say is you

1024
00:52:28.239 --> 00:52:31.659
<v Speaker 2>can't pick your timing. Like, let's say Obama hadn't run

1025
00:52:31.699 --> 00:52:36.349
<v Speaker 2>in 08. And Hillary maybe ran and won and served

1026
00:52:36.389 --> 00:52:39.789
<v Speaker 2>to like in 2016, he'd be ending his second term

1027
00:52:39.809 --> 00:52:41.690
<v Speaker 2>in the U.S. Senate with all the barnacles of Washington

1028
00:52:41.750 --> 00:52:44.769
<v Speaker 2>on him. So if you are a Democrat thinking that

1029
00:52:44.829 --> 00:52:47.590
<v Speaker 2>I would like to seek the White House and is

1030
00:52:47.630 --> 00:52:49.909
<v Speaker 2>now too early, it's not. This is the time to

1031
00:52:49.969 --> 00:52:53.530
<v Speaker 2>run because you can't predict the future. And as fast

1032
00:52:53.809 --> 00:52:57.389
<v Speaker 2>as things move these days in 48 years, 48 years,

1033
00:52:57.469 --> 00:52:59.230
<v Speaker 2>you're almost certainly going to be yesterday's news.

1034
00:52:59.829 --> 00:53:00.050
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

1035
00:53:00.110 --> 00:53:02.449
<v Speaker 2>So this is the time to run. But but again,

1036
00:53:02.510 --> 00:53:06.550
<v Speaker 2>I think Ossoff is really capturing people's attention because obviously

1037
00:53:06.610 --> 00:53:10.809
<v Speaker 2>he's charismatic. He is a great speechmaker. But also what

1038
00:53:10.889 --> 00:53:15.730
<v Speaker 2>he's saying, I think, comes across as clear and courageous

1039
00:53:15.889 --> 00:53:17.989
<v Speaker 2>and with conviction. And people are hungry for that.

1040
00:53:18.190 --> 00:53:20.130
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. My question with him is like, what is the

1041
00:53:20.170 --> 00:53:22.539
<v Speaker 1>next act? Because right now it makes sense that he's

1042
00:53:22.980 --> 00:53:25.099
<v Speaker 1>going after Trump and he's in a Senate race and

1043
00:53:25.139 --> 00:53:28.099
<v Speaker 1>all that. Obviously, once that ends. you need to start

1044
00:53:28.139 --> 00:53:31.059
<v Speaker 1>talking about what you believe, what you see for the country.

1045
00:53:31.380 --> 00:53:34.420
<v Speaker 1>And you do these, you do podcasts, you do longer

1046
00:53:34.460 --> 00:53:36.980
<v Speaker 1>form interviews, you do different content, you don't just do

1047
00:53:37.380 --> 00:53:39.739
<v Speaker 1>the stump speech. And so it'll be interesting to see that.

1048
00:53:40.199 --> 00:53:43.219
<v Speaker 1>And I was wondering, like a lot of other people,

1049
00:53:43.300 --> 00:53:44.980
<v Speaker 1>I see his speeches and I'm like, wow, he's great.

1050
00:53:45.000 --> 00:53:46.510
<v Speaker 1>I haven't seen someone like that in a while. And

1051
00:53:46.530 --> 00:53:49.239
<v Speaker 1>then I think about how we felt about Beto in 2020.

1052
00:53:49.239 --> 00:53:53.820
<v Speaker 1>And I'm like, Are we just drawn to candidates who

1053
00:53:54.360 --> 00:53:57.199
<v Speaker 1>seem like they have Obama-level talent and then when they

1054
00:53:57.239 --> 00:54:01.329
<v Speaker 1>hit the national stage, something goes wrong? I mean, there's

1055
00:54:01.349 --> 00:54:04.110
<v Speaker 1>a difference there, which is like Beto was a congressman

1056
00:54:04.150 --> 00:54:08.090
<v Speaker 1>in Texas. And if Ossoff runs, he has just won

1057
00:54:08.159 --> 00:54:13.159
<v Speaker 1>Georgia twice, which is– that's a pretty good credential to

1058
00:54:13.239 --> 00:54:15.239
<v Speaker 1>match with the talent. But I don't know what you

1059
00:54:15.260 --> 00:54:18.900
<v Speaker 1>think about sort of– What seems inspiring and like a

1060
00:54:18.920 --> 00:54:21.460
<v Speaker 1>good communicator versus like what actually works on the trail?

1061
00:54:21.900 --> 00:54:24.590
<v Speaker 2>It's a great question, John. But, you know, Beto is

1062
00:54:24.630 --> 00:54:28.510
<v Speaker 2>a good example. Like he got in. I can't even

1063
00:54:28.530 --> 00:54:31.429
<v Speaker 2>remember the specifics, but didn't get into the race well.

1064
00:54:31.690 --> 00:54:31.829
<v Speaker 1>Right.

1065
00:54:31.849 --> 00:54:34.329
<v Speaker 2>Wasn't like a Vanity Fair thing or whatever. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

1066
00:54:34.489 --> 00:54:36.590
<v Speaker 2>It's a good, you know, even like John Ossoff, if

1067
00:54:36.610 --> 00:54:38.940
<v Speaker 2>he runs and, you know, spends his first, you know,

1068
00:54:38.980 --> 00:54:41.780
<v Speaker 2>month in South Carolina and it's like, well, the sizzle

1069
00:54:41.800 --> 00:54:44.590
<v Speaker 2>is not there. Like it's hard to recover from that. Yeah. Like,

1070
00:54:44.710 --> 00:54:47.409
<v Speaker 2>you know, it's a brutal thing. But, you know, I

1071
00:54:47.449 --> 00:54:50.360
<v Speaker 2>do think at the end of the day, voters are

1072
00:54:50.389 --> 00:54:53.280
<v Speaker 2>going to want to choose someone that, yes, they think

1073
00:54:53.300 --> 00:54:55.280
<v Speaker 2>can win the White House back. But they want to

1074
00:54:55.320 --> 00:54:59.380
<v Speaker 2>be with someone who excites them, who inspires them, you know,

1075
00:54:59.539 --> 00:55:02.539
<v Speaker 2>who has that kind of talent and charisma. And so, no,

1076
00:55:02.579 --> 00:55:04.559
<v Speaker 2>I don't think we're wrong to single out people who

1077
00:55:04.619 --> 00:55:06.550
<v Speaker 2>are showing signs of it. But, you know, the other

1078
00:55:06.570 --> 00:55:09.489
<v Speaker 2>thing I'd say, you know, giving a speech in the

1079
00:55:09.550 --> 00:55:13.670
<v Speaker 2>Atlanta suburbs that's filmed beautifully and clipped beautifully is different

1080
00:55:13.690 --> 00:55:16.889
<v Speaker 2>than being like in Greenville with 15 people in South Carolina.

1081
00:55:16.909 --> 00:55:18.349
<v Speaker 2>And they're kind of yawning at you and you don't

1082
00:55:18.369 --> 00:55:20.849
<v Speaker 2>have your stuff that day. Like it's hard. I mean, listen,

1083
00:55:20.869 --> 00:55:22.969
<v Speaker 2>Barack Obama, as skilled as he was, as you know,

1084
00:55:22.989 --> 00:55:25.440
<v Speaker 2>the first part of 2007 was a big struggle for us.

1085
00:55:25.659 --> 00:55:30.320
<v Speaker 1>Brutal, brutal. Um, obviously AOC, we talked about AOC a

1086
00:55:30.320 --> 00:55:33.940
<v Speaker 1>little bit, like she is presumably making a decision whether

1087
00:55:34.019 --> 00:55:38.659
<v Speaker 1>she should seek the Senate seat or run for president. Um,

1088
00:55:39.340 --> 00:55:42.280
<v Speaker 1>like if she was asking you, like, how do I

1089
00:55:42.320 --> 00:55:44.190
<v Speaker 1>make this decision? What would you tell her?

1090
00:55:45.199 --> 00:55:48.239
<v Speaker 2>She just should do what feels right to her. And

1091
00:55:48.280 --> 00:55:50.489
<v Speaker 2>I think if she actually thinks that she would be

1092
00:55:50.530 --> 00:55:52.650
<v Speaker 2>a good president and this is the moment to try,

1093
00:55:52.750 --> 00:55:54.840
<v Speaker 2>she should run for president. I wouldn't even, for me,

1094
00:55:54.869 --> 00:55:58.230
<v Speaker 2>it's not even, that's the, that's the key question. And

1095
00:55:58.250 --> 00:56:00.489
<v Speaker 2>then if she says no, then I think a secondary

1096
00:56:00.530 --> 00:56:01.889
<v Speaker 2>question is, you know, what I'd like to be in

1097
00:56:01.929 --> 00:56:04.110
<v Speaker 2>the Senate. I don't, I don't, I don't see it

1098
00:56:04.150 --> 00:56:06.329
<v Speaker 2>as like, let's compare the two. It's like, and, and

1099
00:56:06.409 --> 00:56:11.050
<v Speaker 2>so I think, um, And I think of all the candidates,

1100
00:56:11.309 --> 00:56:15.090
<v Speaker 2>she's the one that from a performance standpoint seems to

1101
00:56:15.150 --> 00:56:20.280
<v Speaker 2>have the broadest skill set. And she'd start with a

1102
00:56:20.360 --> 00:56:25.019
<v Speaker 2>strong base, I think, and would have basically a volunteer

1103
00:56:25.139 --> 00:56:29.650
<v Speaker 2>campaign in waiting. Like in all six early states, AOC

1104
00:56:29.670 --> 00:56:31.610
<v Speaker 2>would start with thousands of people who would like not

1105
00:56:31.650 --> 00:56:34.969
<v Speaker 2>just like say they want to volunteer, they'd like volunteer. So,

1106
00:56:35.590 --> 00:56:37.130
<v Speaker 2>you know, but I think and by the way, there's

1107
00:56:37.150 --> 00:56:39.949
<v Speaker 2>an interesting I think in the donor class in the

1108
00:56:39.989 --> 00:56:43.670
<v Speaker 2>Democratic Party, there's a view that, well, we have to

1109
00:56:43.710 --> 00:56:46.309
<v Speaker 2>make sure the most electable Democrat wins. First of all,

1110
00:56:46.349 --> 00:56:48.349
<v Speaker 2>we have no idea what's most electable. We have no

1111
00:56:48.389 --> 00:56:50.550
<v Speaker 2>idea what voters will want. It's a long time away

1112
00:56:50.570 --> 00:56:52.530
<v Speaker 2>from now. But it's not out of the question that

1113
00:56:52.570 --> 00:56:54.510
<v Speaker 2>someone like AOC is most electable. Like this is a

1114
00:56:54.590 --> 00:56:58.590
<v Speaker 2>terrible economy and people are desiring maximum stability in their

1115
00:56:58.630 --> 00:57:00.349
<v Speaker 2>own life, which they don't have. And they want it

1116
00:57:00.369 --> 00:57:03.530
<v Speaker 2>through maximum political instability. Like they don't want to repeat

1117
00:57:03.570 --> 00:57:05.730
<v Speaker 2>a Biden or Trump or even Obama. They want something

1118
00:57:05.769 --> 00:57:07.730
<v Speaker 2>new and different. And even though she's been on the

1119
00:57:07.769 --> 00:57:09.730
<v Speaker 2>stage for a long time. So but I think it

1120
00:57:09.789 --> 00:57:12.269
<v Speaker 2>comes down to not just for her, for all these candidates,

1121
00:57:12.289 --> 00:57:14.289
<v Speaker 2>but for her. Not not about, well, let me compare

1122
00:57:14.329 --> 00:57:17.030
<v Speaker 2>the Senate. It's like, do I want to run for president?

1123
00:57:17.090 --> 00:57:19.090
<v Speaker 2>Would I like to be president? And if so, I

1124
00:57:19.130 --> 00:57:21.969
<v Speaker 2>should enter the race. And by the way, she's a

1125
00:57:21.989 --> 00:57:24.150
<v Speaker 2>great example. Like, I wouldn't say, well, I'll do it

1126
00:57:24.170 --> 00:57:27.710
<v Speaker 2>eight years from now. Like, I doubt that'll be available

1127
00:57:27.750 --> 00:57:29.909
<v Speaker 2>for AOC eight years from now. It's available now if

1128
00:57:29.949 --> 00:57:32.219
<v Speaker 2>she chooses to seek it. And she may decide for

1129
00:57:32.239 --> 00:57:34.340
<v Speaker 2>a variety of reasons that's not what she wants to do.

1130
00:57:34.860 --> 00:57:37.059
<v Speaker 2>And then I assume she'd run for the Senate and

1131
00:57:37.079 --> 00:57:38.440
<v Speaker 2>it'd be exciting to have her in the Senate.

1132
00:57:38.679 --> 00:57:42.179
<v Speaker 1>Now, one person who has definitely run for president before,

1133
00:57:42.239 --> 00:57:44.300
<v Speaker 1>so she wants to be president and has run for president,

1134
00:57:44.639 --> 00:57:49.260
<v Speaker 1>is Kamala Harris. I noticed this week both Rob Sand

1135
00:57:49.409 --> 00:57:52.809
<v Speaker 1>and Josh Turek were like, you know, we don't want

1136
00:57:52.829 --> 00:57:55.969
<v Speaker 1>her to campaign with us in Iowa. Mary Paltola, you know,

1137
00:57:55.989 --> 00:57:58.510
<v Speaker 1>sort of her campaign, I think, rejected an endorsement that

1138
00:57:58.530 --> 00:58:00.989
<v Speaker 1>was just a fundraising letter. that Kamala sent out for them,

1139
00:58:01.010 --> 00:58:05.010
<v Speaker 1>an email. I think Rob Sandler just said to Jay Mark,

1140
00:58:05.329 --> 00:58:07.309
<v Speaker 1>point blank, like, no, I don't think she should run.

1141
00:58:07.329 --> 00:58:09.050
<v Speaker 1>We need something new. What do you think? Do you

1142
00:58:09.070 --> 00:58:10.030
<v Speaker 1>think Kamala should run?

1143
00:58:10.550 --> 00:58:13.510
<v Speaker 2>Listen, I think people want something new, for sure. I

1144
00:58:13.570 --> 00:58:16.429
<v Speaker 2>think for her, I think she'll make a very responsible decision.

1145
00:58:16.469 --> 00:58:18.869
<v Speaker 2>I think it won't just be about her desires. I

1146
00:58:18.889 --> 00:58:22.070
<v Speaker 2>think she'll want to make sure that Democrats can win

1147
00:58:22.110 --> 00:58:24.480
<v Speaker 2>back the White House. You know, she would start in

1148
00:58:24.500 --> 00:58:29.639
<v Speaker 2>an enviable position, particularly with South Carolina first. You know,

1149
00:58:29.679 --> 00:58:31.159
<v Speaker 2>but at the end of the day, you know, my

1150
00:58:31.219 --> 00:58:35.159
<v Speaker 2>view is that there are a lot of candidates out

1151
00:58:35.179 --> 00:58:39.409
<v Speaker 2>there thinking about running for president. And what I think

1152
00:58:39.429 --> 00:58:44.150
<v Speaker 2>is clear is I think by the first quarter of 28,

1153
00:58:44.150 --> 00:58:46.420
<v Speaker 2>even more so than now, and it's pretty pronounced now,

1154
00:58:46.920 --> 00:58:49.739
<v Speaker 2>people are going to want something new. Now, by the way,

1155
00:58:50.980 --> 00:58:53.119
<v Speaker 2>Kamala would be the least new person if she ran.

1156
00:58:53.840 --> 00:58:55.659
<v Speaker 2>It may be at the end of the day, if

1157
00:58:55.739 --> 00:58:58.940
<v Speaker 2>she seems new and different, if she's got new ideas,

1158
00:58:59.000 --> 00:59:02.000
<v Speaker 2>if she's got a crisper, like she herself could be

1159
00:59:02.059 --> 00:59:05.670
<v Speaker 2>not just, we shouldn't assume it's just like Kamala from

1160
00:59:05.670 --> 00:59:08.329
<v Speaker 2>20 and 24. If that's the case, I don't think

1161
00:59:08.349 --> 00:59:10.300
<v Speaker 2>there's a market for it. So we'll see. And the

1162
00:59:10.340 --> 00:59:13.260
<v Speaker 2>other thing is, you know, if you're just thinking about

1163
00:59:13.300 --> 00:59:15.639
<v Speaker 2>the X's and O's, I think she would know that,

1164
00:59:15.860 --> 00:59:18.829
<v Speaker 2>you know, I'd start in a strong position, but it

1165
00:59:18.869 --> 00:59:20.710
<v Speaker 2>probably is going to get eroded over time. That's not

1166
00:59:20.730 --> 00:59:22.829
<v Speaker 2>a lot of fun to be the front runner, but

1167
00:59:22.969 --> 00:59:26.030
<v Speaker 2>someone's got to emerge who can win the plurality of

1168
00:59:26.050 --> 00:59:27.469
<v Speaker 2>the black vote to beat her.

1169
00:59:28.070 --> 00:59:28.179
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

1170
00:59:28.980 --> 00:59:31.539
<v Speaker 2>And that's quite possible. But, you know, so you'd sit there.

1171
00:59:31.559 --> 00:59:34.719
<v Speaker 2>I think on the one hand, you know that most

1172
00:59:34.780 --> 00:59:38.679
<v Speaker 2>voters want something new, something different. You're not that. On

1173
00:59:38.699 --> 00:59:40.239
<v Speaker 2>the other hand, you've got a strong position in the

1174
00:59:40.280 --> 00:59:44.500
<v Speaker 2>race and a bunch of candidates who, you know, don't

1175
00:59:44.619 --> 00:59:47.099
<v Speaker 2>have the kind of strength that she would start with.

1176
00:59:47.139 --> 00:59:48.719
<v Speaker 2>So I think it's going to be really interesting. But,

1177
00:59:48.780 --> 00:59:50.619
<v Speaker 2>you know, my guess is she'll make a pretty selfless

1178
00:59:50.639 --> 00:59:53.250
<v Speaker 2>decision at the end of the day. Maybe not entirely.

1179
00:59:53.510 --> 00:59:56.590
<v Speaker 2>She obviously has run twice. So she's wanted to be president.

1180
00:59:56.989 --> 00:59:58.650
<v Speaker 2>But I think at the end of the day, she'll

1181
00:59:58.690 --> 01:00:03.329
<v Speaker 2>have to really think through, like, what is the likelihood

1182
01:00:04.789 --> 01:00:07.449
<v Speaker 2>that people want a rerun? And I think the likelihood

1183
01:00:07.510 --> 01:00:11.219
<v Speaker 2>is not high. So it's going to be interesting to me.

1184
01:00:11.960 --> 01:00:13.739
<v Speaker 2>And again, the other thing I'd say for all these candidates,

1185
01:00:13.760 --> 01:00:15.739
<v Speaker 2>and she's been through it, so she knows, it is

1186
01:00:15.800 --> 01:00:20.929
<v Speaker 2>a brutal, brutal fucking process. So you really, really have

1187
01:00:20.949 --> 01:00:23.050
<v Speaker 2>to want to do this. You have to be okay

1188
01:00:23.070 --> 01:00:25.570
<v Speaker 2>with losing. You have to be okay with being humiliated.

1189
01:00:26.159 --> 01:00:28.539
<v Speaker 2>And ultimately, if you win, you know, you've got the

1190
01:00:28.579 --> 01:00:31.880
<v Speaker 2>hardest job on the face of the earth. And, you know,

1191
01:00:32.039 --> 01:00:34.769
<v Speaker 2>you probably, you know, cut years off your life. I mean,

1192
01:00:34.789 --> 01:00:37.510
<v Speaker 2>what's interesting is, you know, every president, when you look

1193
01:00:37.530 --> 01:00:40.110
<v Speaker 2>at those pictures of them, looks so much worse. Now,

1194
01:00:40.309 --> 01:00:42.530
<v Speaker 2>Trump doesn't look worse because of stress. It's just because

1195
01:00:42.550 --> 01:00:46.429
<v Speaker 2>he's an unhealthy, you know, guy. But like, so you

1196
01:00:46.590 --> 01:00:48.920
<v Speaker 2>really have to want to do it. Like, I don't

1197
01:00:48.940 --> 01:00:52.960
<v Speaker 2>think Barack Obama was pathological about it, but he really wanted,

1198
01:00:53.219 --> 01:00:55.960
<v Speaker 2>you know, to take a shot at it, right? And

1199
01:00:56.320 --> 01:00:59.719
<v Speaker 2>it is excruciating. So there's also just, yeah, there's the

1200
01:00:59.860 --> 01:01:01.570
<v Speaker 2>X's and O's and what's the field look like and

1201
01:01:01.590 --> 01:01:04.230
<v Speaker 2>what's the calendar. There is that gut check of like, A,

1202
01:01:04.349 --> 01:01:06.929
<v Speaker 2>do I actually think I'd be a great president? Can

1203
01:01:06.969 --> 01:01:09.349
<v Speaker 2>I win the election? But also, do I want to

1204
01:01:09.369 --> 01:01:13.210
<v Speaker 2>put me and my family through this? Because there's no shortcuts.

1205
01:01:13.590 --> 01:01:14.610
<v Speaker 2>There are no shortcuts.

1206
01:01:15.150 --> 01:01:18.630
<v Speaker 1>Are there any candidates you think could be really strong

1207
01:01:18.650 --> 01:01:21.650
<v Speaker 1>contenders who maybe aren't being talked about in that way

1208
01:01:21.710 --> 01:01:24.159
<v Speaker 1>just yet? And I also, I know that Remember, you

1209
01:01:24.199 --> 01:01:27.099
<v Speaker 1>and Dan talked about the potential of an outsider candidate,

1210
01:01:27.360 --> 01:01:29.380
<v Speaker 1>someone we haven't even talked about, someone that no one's

1211
01:01:29.400 --> 01:01:31.940
<v Speaker 1>been talking about. That was in January. I feel like

1212
01:01:32.480 --> 01:01:34.539
<v Speaker 1>it's not too late to decide to run now, but

1213
01:01:34.579 --> 01:01:37.659
<v Speaker 1>it seems like it's getting late to at least not

1214
01:01:37.699 --> 01:01:41.119
<v Speaker 1>have heard some rumors about people that are outsiders that

1215
01:01:41.159 --> 01:01:41.500
<v Speaker 1>might run.

1216
01:01:42.079 --> 01:01:44.610
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think that's probably right. Although, listen, my sincere

1217
01:01:44.639 --> 01:01:47.369
<v Speaker 2>hope is that there's two or three people who run

1218
01:01:47.409 --> 01:01:50.809
<v Speaker 2>that you and I wouldn't even talk about. Maybe there's

1219
01:01:50.849 --> 01:01:53.849
<v Speaker 2>like a house... candidate who takes a flyer, you know,

1220
01:01:54.250 --> 01:01:56.829
<v Speaker 2>maybe one of these Senate candidates who might win a

1221
01:01:56.889 --> 01:02:00.320
<v Speaker 2>tough state decides to run. Right. I mean, uh, so, um,

1222
01:02:01.139 --> 01:02:03.199
<v Speaker 2>I think the barrier to entry is lower than it

1223
01:02:03.280 --> 01:02:06.519
<v Speaker 2>used to be. Uh, you know, people talk about Jon Stewart. Like, uh,

1224
01:02:07.019 --> 01:02:10.920
<v Speaker 2>my hope is that we have a massive field as

1225
01:02:10.980 --> 01:02:13.820
<v Speaker 2>painful as those debate stages will be. We want a

1226
01:02:13.840 --> 01:02:17.099
<v Speaker 2>massive field and, and have people go out there and

1227
01:02:17.139 --> 01:02:20.699
<v Speaker 2>strut their stuff and, and see if people, uh, are

1228
01:02:20.760 --> 01:02:22.840
<v Speaker 2>willing to accept them as our nominee and as our

1229
01:02:22.880 --> 01:02:25.239
<v Speaker 2>next president. So I hope a bunch of people take

1230
01:02:25.280 --> 01:02:29.610
<v Speaker 2>a flyer on it. And there's always, you know, John,

1231
01:02:29.630 --> 01:02:34.789
<v Speaker 2>what's interesting is there is no way, even like Kamala

1232
01:02:34.809 --> 01:02:36.530
<v Speaker 2>as a front runner can say, well, I think I'm

1233
01:02:36.869 --> 01:02:40.869
<v Speaker 2>in strong shape in South Carolina. But, you know, it's

1234
01:02:40.889 --> 01:02:44.489
<v Speaker 2>a complete crapshoot. There's no way to sit and, well,

1235
01:02:44.800 --> 01:02:46.659
<v Speaker 2>it's not like there's a secret plan for someone to

1236
01:02:46.679 --> 01:02:49.250
<v Speaker 2>be the nominee that no one else can see. You

1237
01:02:49.269 --> 01:02:51.769
<v Speaker 2>just got to throw yourself out there. And, you know,

1238
01:02:51.809 --> 01:02:57.170
<v Speaker 2>most people obviously will not survive the process. But you

1239
01:02:57.210 --> 01:02:59.780
<v Speaker 2>just got to have faith that, you know, your voice

1240
01:02:59.840 --> 01:03:02.519
<v Speaker 2>and your ideas and your background might be what our

1241
01:03:02.559 --> 01:03:05.260
<v Speaker 2>party's looking for at this particular moment. So I hope

1242
01:03:05.320 --> 01:03:07.320
<v Speaker 2>a bunch of people look at it that we might

1243
01:03:07.360 --> 01:03:09.460
<v Speaker 2>not be talking about. And I actually think it is

1244
01:03:09.780 --> 01:03:13.539
<v Speaker 2>like anybody that's successful in this election in tough places.

1245
01:03:14.000 --> 01:03:17.530
<v Speaker 2>I hope they like think about it. Because you wouldn't. Oh,

1246
01:03:17.550 --> 01:03:21.170
<v Speaker 2>they're running already. That doesn't exist anymore. Yeah. You can

1247
01:03:21.230 --> 01:03:23.949
<v Speaker 2>run any time you want and you won't pay a

1248
01:03:23.969 --> 01:03:26.360
<v Speaker 2>price and you might actually be advantaged by it. Yeah.

1249
01:03:26.500 --> 01:03:30.280
<v Speaker 1>You think like if James Tallarico becomes the first Democrat

1250
01:03:30.320 --> 01:03:33.860
<v Speaker 1>to turn Texas blue in however many decades, of course,

1251
01:03:33.900 --> 01:03:35.380
<v Speaker 1>people are going to say maybe he should take a

1252
01:03:35.380 --> 01:03:35.780
<v Speaker 1>look at it.

1253
01:03:36.059 --> 01:03:37.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. And I'm sure all of these people will say,

1254
01:03:37.780 --> 01:03:39.539
<v Speaker 2>of course, they wouldn't. And most of them won't run.

1255
01:03:39.980 --> 01:03:43.150
<v Speaker 2>But my point is there's no barrier to entry. Any

1256
01:03:43.190 --> 01:03:44.949
<v Speaker 2>of these people who, by the way, could even be

1257
01:03:44.989 --> 01:03:50.110
<v Speaker 2>somebody who loses narrowly in a place and decides to run. So,

1258
01:03:50.929 --> 01:03:53.670
<v Speaker 2>you know, it's kind of back to our point is

1259
01:03:53.829 --> 01:03:56.070
<v Speaker 2>if you have talent, if you've got the ability to

1260
01:03:56.110 --> 01:03:59.309
<v Speaker 2>connect with tough to connect with voters, you know, that

1261
01:03:59.369 --> 01:04:02.170
<v Speaker 2>is the kind of thing that actually can go that

1262
01:04:02.230 --> 01:04:06.570
<v Speaker 2>that that that is evidence that you could mount a

1263
01:04:06.590 --> 01:04:07.690
<v Speaker 2>strong presidential campaign.

1264
01:04:08.090 --> 01:04:10.630
<v Speaker 1>David Plouffe, I could talk with you about this stuff

1265
01:04:10.650 --> 01:04:12.849
<v Speaker 1>for another five hours, but I will let you go.

1266
01:04:13.349 --> 01:04:16.519
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much for taking the time, and let's

1267
01:04:16.539 --> 01:04:18.960
<v Speaker 1>do it again once the primary season heats up.

1268
01:04:19.340 --> 01:04:20.900
<v Speaker 2>Once the rodeo begins.

1269
01:04:21.519 --> 01:04:22.099
<v Speaker 1>The shit show.

1270
01:04:22.760 --> 01:04:22.900
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

1271
01:04:22.920 --> 01:04:25.119
<v Speaker 1>All right, buddy. Take care.

1272
01:04:25.239 --> 01:04:25.989
<v Speaker 2>Good to be with you, John.

1273
01:04:26.659 --> 01:04:29.610
<v Speaker 1>That's our show for today. Thanks for joining. Tommy, John,

1274
01:04:29.650 --> 01:04:31.090
<v Speaker 1>and I will be back with a new show in

1275
01:04:31.110 --> 01:04:33.980
<v Speaker 1>your feeds on Tuesdays. Pod Save America is a Crooked

1276
01:04:34.000 --> 01:04:36.539
<v Speaker 1>Media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin,

1277
01:04:36.599 --> 01:04:39.309
<v Speaker 1>McKenna Roberts, and Farrah Safari with Ree Churlin, Elijah Cohn,

1278
01:04:39.349 --> 01:04:41.710
<v Speaker 1>and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt DeGroat, Ben Hethcote,

1279
01:04:41.730 --> 01:04:44.409
<v Speaker 1>Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landis, David Tolles, Mia Kelman, Ryan Young,

1280
01:04:44.510 --> 01:04:46.449
<v Speaker 1>and Naomi Single. Our staff is proudly unionized with the

1281
01:04:46.469 --> 01:04:47.510
<v Speaker 1>Writers Guild of America East.
