WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Bedtime Astronomy. Explore the wonders of the cosmos

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<v Speaker 1>with our soothing Bedtime Astronomi podcast. Each episode offers a

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<v Speaker 1>gentle journey through the stars, planets, and beyond, perfect for

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<v Speaker 1>unwinding after a long day. Let's travel through the mysteries

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<v Speaker 1>of the universe as you drift off into a peaceful

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<v Speaker 1>slumber under the night sky.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, okay, stop me if you've heard this one before.

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<v Speaker 2>A mysterious object from a totally a different star system

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<v Speaker 2>just waltzes into our solar system. It's weird, it's moving

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<v Speaker 2>impossibly fast, and it's basically carrying secrets from some alien world.

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<v Speaker 3>And then just as we figure.

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<v Speaker 4>Out what it is, poof, it's gone.

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<v Speaker 3>It's gone. It's already on its way out.

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<v Speaker 4>It really does feel like a recurring theme, doesn't it.

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<v Speaker 4>It's the cosmic equivalent of meeting someone fascinating in an airport,

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<v Speaker 4>having a great conversation, and then their flight gets called.

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<v Speaker 2>It's the ultimate at cosmic Teas we're sitting here, it

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<v Speaker 2>is February sixteenth, twenty twenty six, and the entire astronomy

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<v Speaker 2>world is buzzing about this thing.

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<v Speaker 3>Three I at Lass.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, the third one.

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<v Speaker 2>This is it the third interstellar object humanity has ever detected.

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<v Speaker 2>First we had Umumua back in what twenty seventeen, that

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<v Speaker 2>weird tumbling cigar.

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<v Speaker 4>Shaped thing caused so much debate.

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<v Speaker 2>Then Boresov came along a couple of years later, and

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<v Speaker 2>it looked a little more familiar, bit more like a

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<v Speaker 2>normal commet a bit. Yeah, and now at LUs but

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<v Speaker 2>the headline feels exactly the same.

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<v Speaker 3>Hello, goodbye, nice knowing you.

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<v Speaker 4>It's just so frustrating. I mean, the geometry of these

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<v Speaker 4>encounters is it's just unforgiving. By the time our telescopes

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<v Speaker 4>are powerful enough to spot them, they are usually already

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<v Speaker 4>screaming past the sun and heading for the exit door. Right,

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<v Speaker 4>the universe is like throwing these incredible gifts at us,

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<v Speaker 4>but it's throwing them really, really hard, exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>And the mood today, you can feel it online. It

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<v Speaker 2>feels a bit somber, right, like we missed the bus again.

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<v Speaker 2>I was just looking at the trajectory maps this morning,

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<v Speaker 2>arning you know, tracking it on the NASA dashboard, and

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<v Speaker 2>three Iadolass is moving at something like sixty kilometers per second.

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<v Speaker 2>Sixty yeah, that's not just fast, that is I mean

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<v Speaker 2>that is, don't even bother trying to chase me fast.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, under normal circumstances. Yes, yes, that's exactly what the

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<v Speaker 4>physics would tell you. Sixty kilometers per second is it's

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<v Speaker 4>blisteringly fast.

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<v Speaker 3>Put that in perspective for us.

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<v Speaker 4>Okay, So a high velocity rifle bullet travels at about

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<v Speaker 4>one kilometer per second, give or take. So this rock

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<v Speaker 4>is moving sixty times faster than a speeding bullet. It's

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<v Speaker 4>completely unbound from the Sun's gravity, which means it isn't

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<v Speaker 4>coming back. It's a one time visitor, a true interstellar tourist,

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<v Speaker 4>a cosmic drive by precisely, and usually when something is

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<v Speaker 4>moving that fast and is already on its way out,

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<v Speaker 4>we just we wave, We take our telescope pictures, we

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<v Speaker 4>analyze the light spectrum from afar, and we write our

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<v Speaker 4>papers about the one that got away.

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<v Speaker 3>But I hear a butt in your voice.

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<v Speaker 4>But and this is why today is actually a very

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<v Speaker 4>very exciting day. The entire narrative has just shifted in

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<v Speaker 4>the last few hours, shifted.

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<v Speaker 3>How the thing is leaving. It's got to be halfway

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<v Speaker 3>to Jupiter's orbit by now, isn't it.

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<v Speaker 4>It is leaving and you're right. We absolutely can't catch

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<v Speaker 4>it with a normal chase, A direct shot is impossible.

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<v Speaker 4>But a new proposal just dropped today that suggests we

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<v Speaker 4>actually can catch it.

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<v Speaker 3>Your kid is.

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<v Speaker 4>It's just that the method is well, it's completely unhinged.

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<v Speaker 2>Unhinged. I like unhinged. Unhinged usually means interesting.

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<v Speaker 4>Oh, it's audacious, it's beautiful. The proposal comes from a

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<v Speaker 4>team including Adam Hibberd who's with the Initiative for Interstellar Studies.

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<v Speaker 4>They've crunched the numbers and they are saying, we can

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<v Speaker 4>run this object down, but we don't do it by

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<v Speaker 4>flying towards it.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, I'm listening. Where do we fly them?

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<v Speaker 4>We catch it by flying directly into the sun.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm sorry, what come again?

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<v Speaker 4>Yep?

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<v Speaker 2>We want to catch a freezing cold rock that's heading

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<v Speaker 2>out into the blackness of deep space. And step one

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<v Speaker 2>of the plan is fly into the giant ball of fire.

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<v Speaker 4>Step one is fly into the fire. It's a technique

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<v Speaker 4>called a solar O birth maneuver. And if this paper

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<v Speaker 4>is that's right, it is the only way humanity is

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<v Speaker 4>going to get a close up look at an alien

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<v Speaker 4>object in our lifetimes.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, we have to unpack this immediately, because that sounds

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<v Speaker 2>like suicide, not science. But hold on, before we even

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<v Speaker 2>get to the whole flying into the Sun part, we

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<v Speaker 2>need to set the stage properly. What exactly is three

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<v Speaker 2>eye out lists? Why are we so desperate to catch

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<v Speaker 2>this thing that we're seriously considering roasting a multi billion

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<v Speaker 2>dollar spacecraft.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, you have to think about what these objects really represent.

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<v Speaker 4>Three eyelis isn't just a rock or you know, a

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<v Speaker 4>dirty snowball. It's debris. It's leftover building material from the

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<v Speaker 4>formation of a completely different solar system.

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<v Speaker 3>It's literally a message in a bottle.

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<v Speaker 4>Precisely, it's a physical package containing the chemical history of

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<v Speaker 4>an exoplanet system. We spend billions and billions of dollars

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<v Speaker 4>building these incredible telescopes like web to just stare at

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<v Speaker 4>the atmospheres of planets light years away, trying to guess

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<v Speaker 4>what they're made of from these tiny squiggles in a

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<v Speaker 4>light spectrum.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, it's all remote analysis.

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<v Speaker 4>The universe has literally mailed a piece of one to

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<v Speaker 4>our front door. If we can actually sample it, touch it,

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<v Speaker 4>put it in a mass spectrometer and analyze its isotopes. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 4>my god, it would be the scientific gold mine of

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<v Speaker 4>the century.

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<v Speaker 2>It would tell us if our own Solar system is

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<v Speaker 2>unique or if we're just common?

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<v Speaker 4>Are we common or are we a fluke. That's one

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<v Speaker 4>of the biggest questions there is, right, It's.

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<v Speaker 2>The difference between looking at a picture of a cake

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<v Speaker 2>and actually getting to eat a slice.

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<v Speaker 3>But here's the.

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<v Speaker 2>Problem, and this is what everyone is lamenting today. We

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<v Speaker 2>can't eat the slice because the slice is moving at

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<v Speaker 2>sixty kilometers per second away from us.

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<v Speaker 4>And that speed is the whole key to the problem.

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<v Speaker 4>To put that sixty number in perspective again, the fastest

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<v Speaker 4>spacecraft we've ever launched out of the Solar System is

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<v Speaker 4>Voyager one, and it's.

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<v Speaker 3>Been going for what almost fifty years now.

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<v Speaker 4>Almost fifty years, and it's moving it about seventeen kilometers

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<v Speaker 4>per second seventeen and that took decades of gravity assists

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<v Speaker 4>to build up. Three ied lass is moving more than

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<v Speaker 4>three almost four times faster than our fastest dever probe.

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<v Speaker 4>We just can't catch it conventionally.

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<v Speaker 2>So why can't we just I mean, this is the

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<v Speaker 2>obvious question, right, why can't we just launch a bigger rocket?

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<v Speaker 2>We have these huge new rockets, the sls. We've got starship.

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<v Speaker 2>Can't we just strap a probe to one of those

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<v Speaker 2>and just floor it.

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<v Speaker 4>That's the direct mission approach. Yeah, it's a totally logical

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<v Speaker 4>question and the first thing every mission designer looks at.

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<v Speaker 4>But the math it just falls apart almost immediately. The

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<v Speaker 4>issue isn't just the sheer speed, it's the timing. It's

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<v Speaker 4>a combination problem. Three i Atlis was detected far too

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<v Speaker 4>late in the game. It had already crossed inside Jupiter's

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<v Speaker 4>orbit and swung around the Sun before we even knew

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<v Speaker 4>it was there.

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<v Speaker 3>It totally snuck up on us, it really did.

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<v Speaker 4>And because it was detected so late, the optimal launch window,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, that perfect time when Earth was in just

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<v Speaker 4>the right spot in its orbit to simply shoot a

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<v Speaker 4>rocket to intercept it, that window had already slammed shut.

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<v Speaker 4>It was gone before we even knew it existed.

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<v Speaker 2>It's like trying to merge onto a highway. If you

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<v Speaker 2>see a car coming from way down on the on ramp,

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<v Speaker 2>you can time it, you speed up, you merge in.

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<v Speaker 3>Smoothly, perfect analogy, But if that car.

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<v Speaker 2>Is already blown past you while you're at a dead stop,

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<v Speaker 2>you can't just accelerate from zero to one hundred miles

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<v Speaker 2>an hour instantly to catch up.

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<v Speaker 3>The physics doesn't work.

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<v Speaker 4>You're standing on the train platform and the bullet train

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<v Speaker 4>has already screamed past the station. That's the situation we're in.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, But what if we were already in space. I

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<v Speaker 2>know the European Space Agency has this mission planned, the

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<v Speaker 2>Comet Interceptor. The idea is to have a probe just

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<v Speaker 2>kind of waiting.

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<v Speaker 4>Right, loitering. Yeah. The concept is to park a spacecraft

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<v Speaker 4>at a stable point in space the suner till two

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<v Speaker 4>point and just wait for a suitable long period commet

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<v Speaker 4>or ideally an interstellar object to show up.

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<v Speaker 3>So even if we had one of those waiting right now,

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<v Speaker 3>it wouldn't work.

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<v Speaker 4>It would matter. The angle is all wrong and the

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<v Speaker 4>speed is just too high. The sheer change in velocity

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<v Speaker 4>required we call delta V and orbital mechanics is just

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<v Speaker 4>monumentally beyond the capability of any chemical rockets we have

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<v Speaker 4>sitting on a or even waiting in space.

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<v Speaker 3>So delta V is basically a measure of how much

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<v Speaker 3>oomph you need.

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<v Speaker 4>It's the currency of space travel. Every maneuver costs a

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<v Speaker 4>certain amount of delta V. Getting from Earth orbit to

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<v Speaker 4>the Moon causes a certain amount. Getting to Mars costs more.

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<v Speaker 4>Trying to catch three i ellas from a standing start

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<v Speaker 4>costs an astronomical amount. If you tried to pack enough

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<v Speaker 4>fuel to do it, you'd need a rocket the size

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<v Speaker 4>of a skyscraper just to get a tiny coffee cup

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<v Speaker 4>sized pro moving fast enough. And we can't build that.

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<v Speaker 2>So the direct approach is dead on arrival. Conventional wisdom

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<v Speaker 2>says we wave goodbye, write some sad poetry, and wait

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<v Speaker 2>for the next one in what another couple of years.

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<v Speaker 4>That was the conventional wisdom until this morning.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, so enter the visionaries. Who are these people proposing

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<v Speaker 2>the dive into the Sun plan? This sounds like a

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<v Speaker 2>pretty Maverick idea, it is.

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<v Speaker 4>But they're not Mavericks in a a reckless sense. It's

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<v Speaker 4>a fascinating team. You have Adam Hibberd, who is a

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<v Speaker 4>just a brilliant orbital mechanic from the Initiative for Interstellar

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<v Speaker 4>Studies or ifour okay, then you have t Mar Marshal

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<v Speaker 4>U Banks from Space Initiatives, Inc. And Andreas Hine at

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<v Speaker 4>the University of Luxembourg. These aren't just random enthusiasts. These

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<v Speaker 4>are the folks who specialize in impossible navigation. They live

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<v Speaker 4>for these kinds of problems.

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<v Speaker 3>They like the hard problem.

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<v Speaker 4>They love them. And Hibberd in particular is the main

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<v Speaker 4>architect behind a really unique piece of software called os.

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<v Speaker 3>OITS what's that It stands.

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<v Speaker 4>For Optimum Interplanetary Trajectory Software. It sounds dry, I know,

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<v Speaker 4>but you should think of it as a kind of

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<v Speaker 4>GPS for the impossible hasso. Most mission planning software is

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<v Speaker 4>designed to look for the most efficient direct routes, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>a home and transfer from Earth to Mars. It's about

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<v Speaker 4>saving fuel on established paths. Always. Hays is different. It's

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<v Speaker 4>designed to look for cosmic bank shots. It looks for

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<v Speaker 4>gravitational pinball.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's not looking for the straightest line. It's looking

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<v Speaker 2>for loopholes.

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<v Speaker 4>It's looking for leverage points in the Solar System. And

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<v Speaker 4>this isn't its first rodeo. It was the same software

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<v Speaker 4>used to design Project Lyra, which was the big theoretic

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<v Speaker 4>mission concept to go back and chase down umua oh.

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<v Speaker 3>I remember that that also seemed impossible at the time.

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<v Speaker 4>It did, and a direct mission was but always found

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<v Speaker 4>these wild looping trajectories using Venus and Jupiter and Earth

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<v Speaker 4>to eventually build up enough speed. So this software has

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<v Speaker 4>a pedigree in solving these exact kinds of impossible navigation redeals.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, so these guys fed all the data on three

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<v Speaker 2>I clus its speed, its direction into this super smart

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<v Speaker 2>software and just ask it a simple question, a very

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<v Speaker 2>simple question.

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<v Speaker 4>Is there any way, anyway at all using any combination

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<v Speaker 4>of planets and burns to catch this thing with current technology?

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<v Speaker 3>And the computer didn't just crash.

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<v Speaker 4>The computer came back with a resounding yes. But the

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<v Speaker 4>path it plotted it's just wild. It's elegant and terrifying

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<v Speaker 4>all at.

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<v Speaker 3>Once, which brings us back to the Solar.

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<v Speaker 4>O birth maneuver, the solar obirth.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, lay it on me. I think I understand a

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<v Speaker 2>basic gravity assist. That's where you fly by a planet

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<v Speaker 2>like Jupiter and you kind of steal a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>of its orbital momentum to speed yourself up. Right, Voyager

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<v Speaker 2>did that a bunch of.

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<v Speaker 4>Times, exactly right. A standard gravity assist is like you're

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<v Speaker 4>on a skateboard and you grab onto the back of

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<v Speaker 4>a moving bus for a second. The bus barely notices,

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<v Speaker 4>but you get a huge boost. But the overt effect

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<v Speaker 4>is different. It's more profound. It relies on a quirk

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<v Speaker 4>of orbiter mechanics. That feels it almost feels like a

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<v Speaker 4>cheat code for the.

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<v Speaker 3>Universe, a cheat code. I'm listening. I like cheat codes.

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<v Speaker 4>The basic principle is this. A rocket engine is more efficient.

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<v Speaker 4>It gives you a bigger booth than kinetic energy when

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<v Speaker 4>the rocket is already moving very fast.

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<v Speaker 2>Wait, hang on, why that seems backwards. A rocket provides

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<v Speaker 2>a certain amount of for ust a certain push. Why

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't matter how fast I'm already going when I fire it?

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<v Speaker 4>It's all about kinetic energy. The formula for kinetic energy

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<v Speaker 4>is one half mass times velosoity squared. The key is

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<v Speaker 4>that squared part. Okay, So because of that squared relationship,

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<v Speaker 4>if you add a fixed amount of velocity, Let's say

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<v Speaker 4>you fire your engine and add one kilometer per second

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<v Speaker 4>to your speed, the amount of energy you gain from

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<v Speaker 4>that burn is massively larger if you're already going, say

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<v Speaker 4>fifty kilometers per second, than if you're only going five.

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<v Speaker 4>You get more bang for your buck from the exact

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<v Speaker 4>same puffet gas.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, I think I'm starting to get it.

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<v Speaker 2>So you want to save your biggest engine burn for

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<v Speaker 2>the moment you are moving at your absolute maximum speed.

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<v Speaker 4>Precisely that is the key to the whole thing. So

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<v Speaker 4>this question is obvious. Where in our Solar system does

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<v Speaker 4>an object move the fastest when.

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<v Speaker 3>It's falling towards something really really heavy?

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<v Speaker 4>The Sun? The Sun is the biggest deepest gravity while

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<v Speaker 4>we have by a long long shot. If you just

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<v Speaker 4>drop a space graft and let it fall towards the Sun,

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<v Speaker 4>gravity pulls it in, accelerating it faster and faster.

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<v Speaker 3>And faster, like rolling down the universe's biggest hill.

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<v Speaker 4>Exactly by the time it gets really close to the surface,

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<v Speaker 4>or well, the photosphere, it is just screaming. It's moving

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<v Speaker 4>faster than any man made object has ever moved in history.

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<v Speaker 2>So you let the Sun do all the hard work

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<v Speaker 2>of acceleration for you.

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<v Speaker 4>You let gravity do the heavy lifting. You die. You

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<v Speaker 4>fall all the way down into the deepest part of

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<v Speaker 4>the well, and right at the very bottom of that dive,

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<v Speaker 4>the point called perihelium, at closest point to the Sun,

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<v Speaker 4>you are moving at these incredible mind bending speeds, and

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<v Speaker 4>that that is when you fire your engine.

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<v Speaker 2>You hit the gas at the very bottom of the hill.

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<v Speaker 4>That's it. It's like being on a swing set. If

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<v Speaker 4>you try to pump your legs at the very top

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<v Speaker 4>of the arc, when you're almost motionless, it doesn't do

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<v Speaker 4>much right.

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<v Speaker 3>You just kind of wiggle.

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<v Speaker 4>But if you give a huge kick right at the

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<v Speaker 4>very bottom of the swing, when you're moving fastest, you

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<v Speaker 4>go flying so much higher on the other side. This

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<v Speaker 4>is the ultimate cosmic swing set. You dive at the

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<v Speaker 4>Sun and at that single precise moment of closest approach,

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<v Speaker 4>you burn everything. You have. The combination of the Sun's

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<v Speaker 4>intense gravity and that perfectly timed rocket burn flings you

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<v Speaker 4>out of the Solar System like a stone from a

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<v Speaker 4>god's slingshot.

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<v Speaker 2>That is terrifyingly brilliant. So we're not really chasing three

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<v Speaker 2>iolase at all. We're using the Sun to catapult ourselves

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<v Speaker 2>onto a trajectory that will evente intercept it way out

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<v Speaker 2>in deep space.

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<v Speaker 4>Yes, we're setting in ambush. The math in this new

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<v Speaker 4>paper suggests that this maneuver can generate the kinds of

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<v Speaker 4>exit speeds we need well over sixty, maybe seventy even

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<v Speaker 4>eighty kilometers per second to actually run down an interstellar

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<v Speaker 4>object that had a massive headstart.

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<v Speaker 2>But there's a catch, right, there's always a catch. This

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<v Speaker 2>sounds too perfect. You can't just launch this mission tomorrow.

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<v Speaker 4>No, absolutely not. And this is where the beautiful, frustrating

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<v Speaker 4>reality of celestial mechanics comes back in. It's a game

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<v Speaker 4>of alignment. You need the planets to be in exactly

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<v Speaker 4>the right places literally, for this to work. We need Earth, Jupiter,

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00:14:35.840 --> 00:14:38.919
<v Speaker 4>and the Sun to be in very specific positions relative

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<v Speaker 4>to three iiizes escape path.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, wait, why Jupiter? You lost me there? I thought

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<v Speaker 3>this was all about the Sun.

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<v Speaker 4>It is, but we can't just fly from Earth to

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<v Speaker 4>the Sun directly. It's actually, and this sounds crazy, it's

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<v Speaker 4>really hard to hit the Sun.

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<v Speaker 3>It's the biggest thing around. How can it be hard

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<v Speaker 3>to hit.

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<v Speaker 4>Because the Earth isn't stationary, We're moving sideways at about

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<v Speaker 4>thirty kilometers per second in our orbit. To fall into

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<v Speaker 4>the Sun, you first have to get rid of all

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<v Speaker 4>that sideways momentum. It takes a huge amount of breaking fuel.

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<v Speaker 4>So the clever plan is this launch from Earth and

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<v Speaker 4>first fly out to Jupiter.

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<v Speaker 3>So you go outwards to go inwards. That makes no sense.

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<v Speaker 4>It's the bank shot. We use Jupiter's massive gravity not

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00:15:15.279 --> 00:15:17.799
<v Speaker 4>to speed up, but to slam on the brakes. We

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00:15:17.879 --> 00:15:21.039
<v Speaker 4>do a gravity assistant reverse. It kills our orbital speed,

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<v Speaker 4>turns the spacecraft around and drops it into a dead

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<v Speaker 4>dive straight at the Sun.

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<v Speaker 3>Wow.

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<v Speaker 2>So the full itinerary is launch from Earth, fly out

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<v Speaker 2>to Jupiter for a few years, use Jupiter to U

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<v Speaker 2>turn and dive into the Sun, do the crazy O

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<v Speaker 2>birth run, and then shoot out into the void to

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<v Speaker 2>chase Atla's a bank.

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<v Speaker 4>Shot off the King of Planets into the heart of

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<v Speaker 4>the star to catch a ghost.

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00:15:44.919 --> 00:15:47.639
<v Speaker 2>So according to Hibberd and his team, when does this

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<v Speaker 2>magical cosmic window open? When are all the pieces in.

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<v Speaker 3>The right place?

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<v Speaker 4>Twenty thirty five?

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<v Speaker 2>Twenty thirty five, Okay, so that's nine years.

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00:15:54.200 --> 00:15:56.919
<v Speaker 4>From now, nine years, which in the world of designing

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<v Speaker 4>and building major flagship space missions is It's actually a

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00:16:00.600 --> 00:16:03.840
<v Speaker 4>very comfortable timeline. It's not a frantic scramble. It's doable.

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00:16:04.240 --> 00:16:04.799
<v Speaker 4>We could do this.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, let's talk about the tech for a minute, because

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<v Speaker 2>usually when I hear people talk about chasing interstellar objects,

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<v Speaker 2>they immediately start talking about, you know, laser arrays and

359
00:16:12.480 --> 00:16:16.519
<v Speaker 2>light sales and antimatter engines, stuff that belongs in star trek.

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00:16:16.600 --> 00:16:17.600
<v Speaker 3>Is that what this requires?

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00:16:17.799 --> 00:16:20.840
<v Speaker 4>No, and that is probably the most important and exciting

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00:16:20.879 --> 00:16:23.360
<v Speaker 4>part of this new proposal. They are not asking for

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00:16:23.399 --> 00:16:27.080
<v Speaker 4>science fiction. They're not asking for directed energy propulsion or

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<v Speaker 4>giant laser arrays on the dark side of the.

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00:16:29.320 --> 00:16:32.200
<v Speaker 3>Moon, which is cool, but decades away.

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00:16:32.360 --> 00:16:36.039
<v Speaker 4>Decades away at best. Yeah, this proposal is based on

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00:16:36.240 --> 00:16:41.279
<v Speaker 4>using solid rocket motors, chemical propulsion, the same fundamental stuff

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00:16:41.279 --> 00:16:43.919
<v Speaker 4>we've been using to launch satellite since the nineteen sixties.

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<v Speaker 2>You're kidding me, Just standard rockets. How can that possibly

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<v Speaker 2>be powerful enough?

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<v Speaker 4>Well specialized? Of course, you need a kickstage that can

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<v Speaker 4>survive the heat. But the physics of the solar overirth

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<v Speaker 4>maneuver are so powerful that they compensate for the relative

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<v Speaker 4>weakness of our chemical fuel. We don't need a sci

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00:17:00.919 --> 00:17:04.000
<v Speaker 4>fi engine because we are using the Sun itself as

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00:17:04.000 --> 00:17:07.160
<v Speaker 4>our primary engine. The physics gives us the leverage our

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00:17:07.240 --> 00:17:08.119
<v Speaker 4>chemistry lacks.

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00:17:08.359 --> 00:17:10.799
<v Speaker 2>That makes it feel incredibly real. This isn't some maybe

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00:17:10.799 --> 00:17:13.200
<v Speaker 2>in one hundred years academic paper. This is a we

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00:17:13.240 --> 00:17:16.200
<v Speaker 2>could start bending metal for this tomorrow kind of paper.

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00:17:16.319 --> 00:17:19.279
<v Speaker 4>It is the technological readiness level or TRL for all

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00:17:19.319 --> 00:17:21.799
<v Speaker 4>the key components is very high. We know how to

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00:17:21.799 --> 00:17:24.400
<v Speaker 4>build heat shields. We did it with the Parker solar probe,

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00:17:24.720 --> 00:17:28.880
<v Speaker 4>which is practically touching the Sun's atmosphere right now, and surviving.

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00:17:28.680 --> 00:17:30.000
<v Speaker 3>Parker is a huge success.

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00:17:30.440 --> 00:17:34.240
<v Speaker 4>We absolutely know how to do Jupiter flybys, who've been

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<v Speaker 4>doing them since the pioneer missions in the seventies. And

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00:17:37.000 --> 00:17:39.920
<v Speaker 4>we definitely know how to make reliable solid rocket motors.

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00:17:40.119 --> 00:17:42.319
<v Speaker 4>The pieces are all on the board, we just need

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00:17:42.359 --> 00:17:44.880
<v Speaker 4>to assemble them in this new audacious way.

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00:17:45.039 --> 00:17:47.759
<v Speaker 2>Okay, so we have the target three IAD lists, we

392
00:17:47.839 --> 00:17:50.839
<v Speaker 2>have the mind bending method, the solar o birth, we

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00:17:50.920 --> 00:17:53.880
<v Speaker 2>have the technology. It's basically off the shelf. But now

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00:17:53.880 --> 00:17:56.079
<v Speaker 2>we have to talk about the elephant in the room,

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00:17:57.000 --> 00:17:58.480
<v Speaker 2>or maybe the tortoise in the room.

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00:17:58.599 --> 00:17:59.000
<v Speaker 4>The duration.

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00:17:59.119 --> 00:18:01.599
<v Speaker 2>The duration, because I saw the number in the abstract

398
00:18:01.640 --> 00:18:02.960
<v Speaker 2>of the paper and I had to read it twice

399
00:18:03.000 --> 00:18:04.039
<v Speaker 2>to make sure it wasn't a typo.

400
00:18:04.440 --> 00:18:06.640
<v Speaker 4>How long does it actually take for this probe after

401
00:18:06.680 --> 00:18:09.440
<v Speaker 4>its twenty thirty five launch in Solar Dive to catch

402
00:18:09.480 --> 00:18:09.960
<v Speaker 4>up to three A.

403
00:18:10.039 --> 00:18:13.480
<v Speaker 2>It lists the baseline simulation suggests a flight time of

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00:18:13.519 --> 00:18:14.920
<v Speaker 2>approximately fifty.

405
00:18:14.640 --> 00:18:17.039
<v Speaker 4>Years five zero fifty.

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00:18:17.400 --> 00:18:18.559
<v Speaker 3>Yes, that's essential, So.

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00:18:18.559 --> 00:18:20.319
<v Speaker 4>Let me get this straight. We launch in twenty thirty five,

408
00:18:20.720 --> 00:18:23.799
<v Speaker 4>the probe performs its dive, gets flung out into space,

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00:18:23.839 --> 00:18:27.440
<v Speaker 4>and it finally catches the object in twenty eighty five.

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00:18:27.519 --> 00:18:28.319
<v Speaker 3>That's the timeline.

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00:18:28.400 --> 00:18:30.640
<v Speaker 4>Yes, I mean most of the people working on the mission,

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00:18:30.680 --> 00:18:33.359
<v Speaker 4>the engineers, the scientists who build it, they won't be

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00:18:33.400 --> 00:18:35.920
<v Speaker 4>alive when it arrives. That is very likely true.

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00:18:36.000 --> 00:18:39.119
<v Speaker 2>Yes, wow, that is a hard sell, isn't it.

415
00:18:39.720 --> 00:18:41.599
<v Speaker 3>Hey, Congress, can you give us a few billion dollars

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00:18:41.599 --> 00:18:42.319
<v Speaker 3>for a mission.

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00:18:42.039 --> 00:18:44.000
<v Speaker 2>That will give us some really cool photos for our

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00:18:44.000 --> 00:18:45.880
<v Speaker 2>grandkids in the year twenty eighty five.

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00:18:46.400 --> 00:18:48.279
<v Speaker 4>It's a hard sell if you look at it through

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00:18:48.279 --> 00:18:51.400
<v Speaker 4>the lens of you know, typical four year election cycles

421
00:18:51.559 --> 00:18:54.640
<v Speaker 4>or quarterly corporate reports. But this is where we have

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00:18:54.680 --> 00:18:58.599
<v Speaker 4>to fundamentally shift our thinking. This isn't a normal mission.

423
00:18:59.200 --> 00:19:01.359
<v Speaker 4>We have to move to the realm of what some

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00:19:01.400 --> 00:19:03.480
<v Speaker 4>people call cathedral projects.

425
00:19:03.519 --> 00:19:05.000
<v Speaker 3>Cathedral projects explain that.

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00:19:05.400 --> 00:19:08.480
<v Speaker 4>Think about the architects and the stonemasons who laid the

427
00:19:08.480 --> 00:19:12.799
<v Speaker 4>cornerstones of the great cathedrals in medieval Europe. They knew

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00:19:13.079 --> 00:19:17.160
<v Speaker 4>with absolute one hundred percent certainty that they would not

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00:19:17.440 --> 00:19:20.319
<v Speaker 4>live to see the spire completed. Their children might not

430
00:19:20.400 --> 00:19:22.920
<v Speaker 4>their grandchildren might not even see it finished, but they

431
00:19:23.000 --> 00:19:23.880
<v Speaker 4>started anyway.

432
00:19:23.960 --> 00:19:26.759
<v Speaker 2>They were building it for the future, for something bigger

433
00:19:26.799 --> 00:19:27.400
<v Speaker 2>than themselves.

434
00:19:27.440 --> 00:19:30.200
<v Speaker 4>They were building it for the future. This mission is

435
00:19:30.240 --> 00:19:32.759
<v Speaker 4>a scientific cathedral. It's a legacy project.

436
00:19:32.920 --> 00:19:36.000
<v Speaker 2>That is a beautiful way to put it. But practically speaking,

437
00:19:36.119 --> 00:19:38.720
<v Speaker 2>can we even maintain a mission for fifty years? I

438
00:19:38.720 --> 00:19:44.160
<v Speaker 2>mean equipment, brakes, radioactive power sources, decay, signals degrade over

439
00:19:44.240 --> 00:19:45.759
<v Speaker 2>those insane distances.

440
00:19:45.880 --> 00:19:48.680
<v Speaker 4>We have precedent, and it's an amazing one. Voyager one

441
00:19:48.720 --> 00:19:51.920
<v Speaker 4>and Voyager two launched in nineteen seventy seven. They're still

442
00:19:51.920 --> 00:19:53.920
<v Speaker 4>talking to us today nearly fifty years later.

443
00:19:54.079 --> 00:19:54.880
<v Speaker 3>That's incredible.

444
00:19:54.920 --> 00:19:58.039
<v Speaker 4>And that was with nineteen seventies technology. We're talking eight

445
00:19:58.119 --> 00:20:01.240
<v Speaker 4>track tape recorders for data storage and less computing power

446
00:20:01.279 --> 00:20:04.200
<v Speaker 4>than your watch. Imagine what a probe built with robust

447
00:20:04.279 --> 00:20:06.799
<v Speaker 4>twenty thirties technology could do. It could be designed from

448
00:20:06.799 --> 00:20:10.039
<v Speaker 4>the ground up for longevity. It could hiernate for decades,

449
00:20:10.400 --> 00:20:13.440
<v Speaker 4>wake itself up periodically for check ins, and use advanced

450
00:20:13.440 --> 00:20:17.119
<v Speaker 4>AI for self repair. It's an engineering challenge, but it's

451
00:20:17.119 --> 00:20:18.240
<v Speaker 4>not an unsolvable one.

452
00:20:18.279 --> 00:20:19.319
<v Speaker 3>So it's a time capsule.

453
00:20:19.400 --> 00:20:22.039
<v Speaker 2>We launched the absolute best technology of twenty thirty five

454
00:20:22.079 --> 00:20:24.119
<v Speaker 2>put it to sleep, and it arrives in the twenty

455
00:20:24.160 --> 00:20:26.799
<v Speaker 2>eighties as this sort of retrofuturistic marvel.

456
00:20:27.000 --> 00:20:30.200
<v Speaker 4>And just think about the arrival in twenty eighty five,

457
00:20:30.799 --> 00:20:34.880
<v Speaker 4>the scientists receiving that first signal, that first grainy, black

458
00:20:34.920 --> 00:20:37.680
<v Speaker 4>and white image of an alien rock. They might be

459
00:20:37.720 --> 00:20:40.000
<v Speaker 4>the grandchildren of the scientists who wave goodbye to it

460
00:20:40.039 --> 00:20:42.960
<v Speaker 4>at the launch pad. There's a human continuity there that

461
00:20:43.079 --> 00:20:46.119
<v Speaker 4>is just quite beautiful to think about.

462
00:20:46.240 --> 00:20:48.759
<v Speaker 2>It totally changes the definition of success for a project.

463
00:20:48.839 --> 00:20:51.960
<v Speaker 2>Success isn't I got the data. Success is I made

464
00:20:52.000 --> 00:20:54.480
<v Speaker 2>sure the data will exist for someone else to get.

465
00:20:54.480 --> 00:20:56.799
<v Speaker 4>Exactly, And you have to consider the alternative. If we

466
00:20:56.839 --> 00:21:00.759
<v Speaker 4>say fifty years is too long, what's our other optioning nothing,

467
00:21:00.920 --> 00:21:04.200
<v Speaker 4>we get zero data. Three IAT disappears into the dark

468
00:21:04.240 --> 00:21:06.680
<v Speaker 4>forever and we never ever know what it was made of.

469
00:21:07.000 --> 00:21:08.519
<v Speaker 4>The secrets it carries are lost.

470
00:21:08.880 --> 00:21:11.279
<v Speaker 2>So the choice isn't really wait fifty years or get

471
00:21:11.279 --> 00:21:14.519
<v Speaker 2>the data now. The choice is wait fifty years or

472
00:21:14.519 --> 00:21:15.240
<v Speaker 2>wait forever.

473
00:21:15.400 --> 00:21:18.119
<v Speaker 4>That's the choice. And let's just quickly compare to the

474
00:21:18.119 --> 00:21:21.599
<v Speaker 4>other big dream actually flying to another star like Alpha Centauri, right,

475
00:21:21.640 --> 00:21:25.720
<v Speaker 4>the Holy Grail, even with the wildest, most optimistic propulsion concepts,

476
00:21:25.759 --> 00:21:29.160
<v Speaker 4>fusion rockets, laser sales, you name it. A trip to

477
00:21:29.200 --> 00:21:33.079
<v Speaker 4>Alpha Centauri is going to take decades, maybe a century.

478
00:21:33.839 --> 00:21:36.079
<v Speaker 4>And that's for technology we don't even have a blueprint

479
00:21:36.079 --> 00:21:38.720
<v Speaker 4>for yet. Sure, this mission gives us the prize. We

480
00:21:38.759 --> 00:21:42.440
<v Speaker 4>want actual physical matter from another star system without having

481
00:21:42.480 --> 00:21:44.559
<v Speaker 4>to travel the four light years to get there. We

482
00:21:44.640 --> 00:21:47.119
<v Speaker 4>are catching the delivery truck instead of driving all the

483
00:21:47.119 --> 00:21:50.640
<v Speaker 4>way to the factory. In that context, fifty years is

484
00:21:50.680 --> 00:21:53.480
<v Speaker 4>a blink of an eye. It is strange as it sounds.

485
00:21:53.759 --> 00:21:55.599
<v Speaker 4>The fastest way to touch the stars.

486
00:21:55.680 --> 00:21:57.880
<v Speaker 2>That is a really really powerful way to frame it.

487
00:21:57.880 --> 00:22:00.160
<v Speaker 2>It's a shortcut, even if it takes a lifetime.

488
00:22:00.279 --> 00:22:02.559
<v Speaker 4>It is. And the scientific payoff, I mean, we really

489
00:22:02.559 --> 00:22:03.359
<v Speaker 4>can't overstate it.

490
00:22:03.359 --> 00:22:05.480
<v Speaker 2>Okay, let's dig into that payoff. Let's say we do it.

491
00:22:05.519 --> 00:22:08.200
<v Speaker 2>The world space agencies get together, they fund this thing.

492
00:22:08.359 --> 00:22:11.279
<v Speaker 2>It launches in twenty thirty five. Fast forward, it's twenty

493
00:22:11.319 --> 00:22:13.960
<v Speaker 2>eighty five. Probe wakes up. It's closing in on three

494
00:22:14.039 --> 00:22:16.279
<v Speaker 2>I at lis. What are we looking for? What is

495
00:22:16.319 --> 00:22:19.200
<v Speaker 2>the aha moment that makes the whole fifty year weight

496
00:22:19.279 --> 00:22:19.759
<v Speaker 2>worth it?

497
00:22:19.839 --> 00:22:23.000
<v Speaker 4>We are looking for ground truth, right, now, our entire

498
00:22:23.079 --> 00:22:26.599
<v Speaker 4>understanding of how planets form, how solar systems evolve, is

499
00:22:26.640 --> 00:22:29.559
<v Speaker 4>based on a sample size of one us, our solar system.

500
00:22:29.640 --> 00:22:33.160
<v Speaker 4>That's it. We assume that other systems formed in more

501
00:22:33.279 --> 00:22:35.640
<v Speaker 4>or less the same way with the same ingredients, but

502
00:22:35.680 --> 00:22:37.960
<v Speaker 4>we honestly don't know. It's a huge assumption.

503
00:22:38.160 --> 00:22:40.599
<v Speaker 3>We're just guessing based on what we see around us.

504
00:22:40.640 --> 00:22:44.200
<v Speaker 4>We're making very educated guesses, but there's still guesses. But

505
00:22:44.240 --> 00:22:47.359
<v Speaker 4>what if the isotopic ratios of elements like oxygen or

506
00:22:47.400 --> 00:22:50.519
<v Speaker 4>carbon are completely alien compared to what we find in

507
00:22:50.519 --> 00:22:53.039
<v Speaker 4>our own commets. That would be revolutionary.

508
00:22:53.119 --> 00:22:53.960
<v Speaker 3>What would that tell us?

509
00:22:54.759 --> 00:22:56.720
<v Speaker 4>It would mean the cloud of gas and dust it

510
00:22:56.799 --> 00:23:00.599
<v Speaker 4>formed from was different from our own about the star

511
00:23:00.680 --> 00:23:02.799
<v Speaker 4>it came from. Maybe it was a different type of

512
00:23:02.799 --> 00:23:05.680
<v Speaker 4>star or a different part of the galaxy. What if

513
00:23:05.720 --> 00:23:10.880
<v Speaker 4>we find complex organic molecules, you know, the building blocks

514
00:23:10.880 --> 00:23:13.359
<v Speaker 4>of life, that are different from the amino acids we

515
00:23:13.440 --> 00:23:14.720
<v Speaker 4>find on meteorites here.

516
00:23:14.880 --> 00:23:17.640
<v Speaker 2>It could tell us if the basic ingredients for life

517
00:23:17.640 --> 00:23:19.759
<v Speaker 2>are common throughout the galaxy.

518
00:23:19.599 --> 00:23:22.599
<v Speaker 4>Exactly, or it could tell us the opposite. It could

519
00:23:22.599 --> 00:23:26.279
<v Speaker 4>tell us that our solar system is weirdly special, that

520
00:23:26.319 --> 00:23:30.160
<v Speaker 4>we have a unique chemical cocktail that made life here possible.

521
00:23:30.759 --> 00:23:33.880
<v Speaker 4>Either answer fundamentally changes our understanding of our place in

522
00:23:33.920 --> 00:23:34.440
<v Speaker 4>the universe.

523
00:23:34.519 --> 00:23:36.359
<v Speaker 3>And we can figure this out with instruments on.

524
00:23:36.319 --> 00:23:39.039
<v Speaker 4>The pro Oh yeah, we can do this with spectrometers,

525
00:23:39.119 --> 00:23:43.200
<v Speaker 4>with cameras, with dust analyzers. A key instrument would be

526
00:23:43.240 --> 00:23:47.039
<v Speaker 4>a mass spectrometer, which basically weighs molecules and tells you

527
00:23:47.079 --> 00:23:49.960
<v Speaker 4>exactly what they're made of. We could literally taste the

528
00:23:50.039 --> 00:23:50.839
<v Speaker 4>alien dust.

529
00:23:50.960 --> 00:23:51.720
<v Speaker 3>When you put it like.

530
00:23:51.680 --> 00:23:55.279
<v Speaker 2>That, it really makes the fifty year weight seem almost trivial.

531
00:23:55.519 --> 00:23:57.880
<v Speaker 2>When you're talking about answering the question are we alone

532
00:23:58.079 --> 00:24:01.400
<v Speaker 2>or at least is our home unique? Fifty years is nothing.

533
00:24:01.559 --> 00:24:04.599
<v Speaker 4>It's the kind of knowledge that rewrites every textbook on Earth.

534
00:24:04.839 --> 00:24:06.839
<v Speaker 4>And there's another angle here too, one that Hibberd and

535
00:24:06.880 --> 00:24:10.079
<v Speaker 4>his team touch on in their paper. It's the practice,

536
00:24:10.119 --> 00:24:13.519
<v Speaker 4>practice for what practice for the future. If we as

537
00:24:13.519 --> 00:24:17.000
<v Speaker 4>a species ever want to become truly interstellar, if we

538
00:24:17.039 --> 00:24:19.359
<v Speaker 4>ever want to send probes to proximate centory and get

539
00:24:19.440 --> 00:24:21.720
<v Speaker 4>data back, we need to learn how to do it.

540
00:24:21.960 --> 00:24:23.799
<v Speaker 4>We need to learn how to build spacecraft that can

541
00:24:23.839 --> 00:24:27.720
<v Speaker 4>reliably last for fifty seventy five one hundred years. We

542
00:24:27.759 --> 00:24:30.480
<v Speaker 4>need to learn how to communicate over those vast distances.

543
00:24:30.920 --> 00:24:34.119
<v Speaker 4>This mission is the perfect training ground. It's a necessary

544
00:24:34.160 --> 00:24:35.119
<v Speaker 4>stepping stone.

545
00:24:35.279 --> 00:24:38.240
<v Speaker 2>So even if in the worst case scenario the probe

546
00:24:38.279 --> 00:24:41.240
<v Speaker 2>gets there and the camera breaks or something, the engineering

547
00:24:41.400 --> 00:24:43.880
<v Speaker 2>challenge of just getting it there makes us better. We

548
00:24:44.000 --> 00:24:45.279
<v Speaker 2>learn so much along the way.

549
00:24:45.400 --> 00:24:48.880
<v Speaker 4>Precisely, it pushes the boundaries of deep space navigation, long

550
00:24:48.920 --> 00:24:52.480
<v Speaker 4>duration systems, autonomous operations, everything we would need for the

551
00:24:52.519 --> 00:24:53.319
<v Speaker 4>next great leap.

552
00:24:53.440 --> 00:24:54.920
<v Speaker 2>I want to go back to the Solar O birth

553
00:24:54.960 --> 00:24:57.079
<v Speaker 2>maneuver for a second, because I'm still stuck on the

554
00:24:57.079 --> 00:25:00.079
<v Speaker 2>sheer visual of this launching. In thirty five, we go

555
00:25:00.160 --> 00:25:02.799
<v Speaker 2>on to Jupiter. You turn, we dive at the Sun.

556
00:25:03.119 --> 00:25:05.319
<v Speaker 2>How close to the Sun are we really talking here?

557
00:25:05.359 --> 00:25:07.640
<v Speaker 2>Are we talking like skimming the surface?

558
00:25:07.920 --> 00:25:10.400
<v Speaker 4>It gets pretty close. To get the maximum O birth

559
00:25:10.440 --> 00:25:12.839
<v Speaker 4>effect the biggest kick. You want to get as deep

560
00:25:12.880 --> 00:25:15.759
<v Speaker 4>into that gravity well as you can possibly survive the

561
00:25:15.799 --> 00:25:18.880
<v Speaker 4>paper models of fu turejectories, but we're talking about getting

562
00:25:18.920 --> 00:25:21.039
<v Speaker 4>within a few solar radii a.

563
00:25:21.000 --> 00:25:22.720
<v Speaker 2>Few times the Sun's own radius.

564
00:25:22.720 --> 00:25:23.319
<v Speaker 3>That's hot.

565
00:25:23.519 --> 00:25:28.839
<v Speaker 4>It is incredibly, unbelievably intense. The heat shield requirements are significant.

566
00:25:29.200 --> 00:25:32.079
<v Speaker 4>You are essentially flying through the outer edges of a

567
00:25:32.160 --> 00:25:36.519
<v Speaker 4>nuclear furnace. The radiation environment is brutal, but again, we've

568
00:25:36.519 --> 00:25:39.279
<v Speaker 4>done this. The Parker Solar Probe is designed to get

569
00:25:39.319 --> 00:25:41.880
<v Speaker 4>even closer than this mission would likely need to. We

570
00:25:41.960 --> 00:25:46.720
<v Speaker 4>have the materials, We have these carbon carbon combas ceramic shields.

571
00:25:47.240 --> 00:25:50.079
<v Speaker 4>We know how to survive the heat. The engineering exists.

572
00:25:50.160 --> 00:25:53.519
<v Speaker 2>It's just so counterintuitive to go to the coldest, darkest

573
00:25:53.519 --> 00:25:56.000
<v Speaker 2>place in the void, you first have to go to

574
00:25:56.079 --> 00:25:58.079
<v Speaker 2>the hottest, brightest place in our solar system.

575
00:25:58.319 --> 00:26:01.200
<v Speaker 4>Nature loves a paradox. Yeah, and the physics doesn't care

576
00:26:01.240 --> 00:26:04.480
<v Speaker 4>about our intuition. It only cares about energy, and the

577
00:26:04.480 --> 00:26:07.799
<v Speaker 4>most accessible gravitational energy in town is at the Sun.

578
00:26:08.119 --> 00:26:10.680
<v Speaker 2>It's fascinating that this proposal is coming out right now

579
00:26:10.720 --> 00:26:11.759
<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty six.

580
00:26:12.400 --> 00:26:14.119
<v Speaker 3>Do you think there's a new sense of.

581
00:26:14.200 --> 00:26:17.240
<v Speaker 2>Urgency because of how many of these objects were suddenly

582
00:26:17.279 --> 00:26:18.000
<v Speaker 2>finding Oh?

583
00:26:18.039 --> 00:26:21.319
<v Speaker 4>I think so absolutely. When Omulua passed through in twenty seventeen,

584
00:26:21.359 --> 00:26:24.039
<v Speaker 4>it was a complete shock. We were called totally flat footed.

585
00:26:24.240 --> 00:26:26.039
<v Speaker 4>With Boris off. A couple of years later we were

586
00:26:26.079 --> 00:26:27.960
<v Speaker 4>a little bit more ready, but it was still fleeting.

587
00:26:28.319 --> 00:26:31.039
<v Speaker 4>Now with three IAT lists, the pattern is established. These

588
00:26:31.079 --> 00:26:33.440
<v Speaker 4>things are out there and they are passing through our

589
00:26:33.440 --> 00:26:35.559
<v Speaker 4>cosmic neighborhood all the time.

590
00:26:35.680 --> 00:26:38.799
<v Speaker 2>We just weren't looking properly before. Our telescopes weren't good

591
00:26:38.880 --> 00:26:39.880
<v Speaker 2>enough exactly.

592
00:26:40.359 --> 00:26:43.759
<v Speaker 4>We are now officially in the era of ISO astronomy

593
00:26:43.839 --> 00:26:48.160
<v Speaker 4>interstellar object astronomy, but I think there's a growing feeling

594
00:26:48.200 --> 00:26:51.039
<v Speaker 4>that just looking isn't enough anymore. We want to touch,

595
00:26:51.839 --> 00:26:54.839
<v Speaker 4>And the collective frustration of watching three iatlests get away

596
00:26:55.240 --> 00:26:58.519
<v Speaker 4>is the direct motivation for this kind of innovative out

597
00:26:58.519 --> 00:27:01.759
<v Speaker 4>of the box thinking people like hibberd Or saying I'm

598
00:27:01.799 --> 00:27:03.039
<v Speaker 4>tired of watching them get away.

599
00:27:03.039 --> 00:27:05.799
<v Speaker 3>It's the scientific hunter instinct. We want to catch the ghost.

600
00:27:05.759 --> 00:27:08.680
<v Speaker 4>And oiat's the software is the bloodhound that's finding the

601
00:27:08.720 --> 00:27:09.240
<v Speaker 4>scent trail.

602
00:27:09.480 --> 00:27:12.319
<v Speaker 3>Let's play Devil's advocate for a moment. What goes wrong?

603
00:27:12.759 --> 00:27:15.720
<v Speaker 2>What are the biggest risks aside from you know, waiting

604
00:27:15.720 --> 00:27:17.640
<v Speaker 2>fifty years and then realizing we forgot to take the

605
00:27:17.720 --> 00:27:18.400
<v Speaker 2>lens cap off.

606
00:27:18.559 --> 00:27:21.240
<v Speaker 4>Well, the launch itself is the first hurdle, as always,

607
00:27:21.880 --> 00:27:23.880
<v Speaker 4>we need a heavy lift vehicle to get this thing

608
00:27:23.920 --> 00:27:27.440
<v Speaker 4>honest way to Jupiter with enough mass. But by twenty

609
00:27:27.480 --> 00:27:31.000
<v Speaker 4>thirty five, looking at the trajectory of rockets like starship

610
00:27:31.000 --> 00:27:33.039
<v Speaker 4>and others that shouldn't be the bottleneck.

611
00:27:33.160 --> 00:27:35.079
<v Speaker 3>Okay, so launch is probably fine.

612
00:27:35.119 --> 00:27:37.920
<v Speaker 4>The real risk, the nail biting part, is the series

613
00:27:37.960 --> 00:27:42.160
<v Speaker 4>of maneuvers, the Jupiter gravity assist and especially the Solar dive.

614
00:27:42.759 --> 00:27:46.400
<v Speaker 4>These are games of incredibly high precision. If you miss

615
00:27:46.440 --> 00:27:49.119
<v Speaker 4>your angle at Jupiter by a tiny fraction of a degree,

616
00:27:49.200 --> 00:27:52.039
<v Speaker 4>you miss the Sun by thousands of miles. If you

617
00:27:52.039 --> 00:27:54.559
<v Speaker 4>miss your angle at the Sun or you're burned, timing

618
00:27:54.640 --> 00:27:56.720
<v Speaker 4>is off by a second, you either burn up or

619
00:27:56.759 --> 00:27:59.279
<v Speaker 4>you miss the target by millions and millions of miles

620
00:27:59.319 --> 00:28:00.640
<v Speaker 4>fifty years down on the line.

621
00:28:00.680 --> 00:28:03.359
<v Speaker 2>You're essentially threading a needle while riding a roller coaster

622
00:28:03.440 --> 00:28:04.240
<v Speaker 2>in the dark.

623
00:28:04.319 --> 00:28:07.039
<v Speaker 4>And you have to do it all autonomously. You can't

624
00:28:07.079 --> 00:28:09.680
<v Speaker 4>joystick this from Earth. The light travel time is way

625
00:28:09.720 --> 00:28:12.160
<v Speaker 4>too long. The computer on board has to have the

626
00:28:12.200 --> 00:28:14.960
<v Speaker 4>perfect clock, has to execute the burn perfectly at the

627
00:28:14.960 --> 00:28:18.200
<v Speaker 4>moment of perihelion. It has to be smart and independent.

628
00:28:18.680 --> 00:28:20.640
<v Speaker 3>But again, this is an engineering problem.

629
00:28:20.680 --> 00:28:24.119
<v Speaker 2>It's not magic. It's just a very very hard engineering problem.

630
00:28:24.160 --> 00:28:25.839
<v Speaker 4>It is a solvable engineering problem.

631
00:28:25.880 --> 00:28:28.839
<v Speaker 2>So we have this incredible proposal on the table, A

632
00:28:28.920 --> 00:28:33.279
<v Speaker 2>twenty thirty five launch, A fifty year cruise, a dive

633
00:28:33.319 --> 00:28:36.799
<v Speaker 2>into the Sun and a rendezvous in the deep dark

634
00:28:36.839 --> 00:28:38.680
<v Speaker 2>with a piece of another solar system.

635
00:28:39.160 --> 00:28:41.000
<v Speaker 3>What needs to happen now to make this real? This

636
00:28:41.079 --> 00:28:42.880
<v Speaker 3>is just a paper right right now.

637
00:28:42.880 --> 00:28:44.799
<v Speaker 4>It's a paper that's been accepted by the Journal of

638
00:28:44.799 --> 00:28:47.920
<v Speaker 4>the British Interplanetary Society. It's a proof of concept. To

639
00:28:47.960 --> 00:28:51.799
<v Speaker 4>make it real, a major space agency NASA, yes, maybe

640
00:28:51.880 --> 00:28:55.119
<v Speaker 4>a private consortium or ideally a collaboration of all of them,

641
00:28:55.400 --> 00:28:57.000
<v Speaker 4>needs to pick it up. They need to fund what's

642
00:28:57.000 --> 00:28:59.039
<v Speaker 4>called a phase A study. And that is that's why

643
00:28:59.119 --> 00:29:02.079
<v Speaker 4>they say, okay, orbital mechanics math looks good. Now let's

644
00:29:02.119 --> 00:29:04.480
<v Speaker 4>get a team of engineers to actually design the hardware.

645
00:29:04.680 --> 00:29:06.519
<v Speaker 4>What does the heat shield look like? What kind of

646
00:29:06.599 --> 00:29:09.480
<v Speaker 4>rocket motor do we need? What's the power source? They

647
00:29:09.480 --> 00:29:11.680
<v Speaker 4>put real numbers and costs to it.

648
00:29:11.720 --> 00:29:12.759
<v Speaker 3>And do you think they will?

649
00:29:12.839 --> 00:29:16.480
<v Speaker 2>Is there an appetite for this kind of long term thinking?

650
00:29:16.599 --> 00:29:20.240
<v Speaker 4>That is the big question. Space agencies are by their

651
00:29:20.319 --> 00:29:23.920
<v Speaker 4>nature quite risk averse. They like missions that have a

652
00:29:24.000 --> 00:29:27.799
<v Speaker 4>high probability of success and finish within a decade. They like,

653
00:29:28.119 --> 00:29:31.880
<v Speaker 4>for political reasons, to have some instant gratification. A fifty

654
00:29:31.920 --> 00:29:35.880
<v Speaker 4>year mission is a very hard sell. But but the

655
00:29:35.880 --> 00:29:38.880
<v Speaker 4>scientific community is allowed on this one. The desire to

656
00:29:38.920 --> 00:29:41.920
<v Speaker 4>study in ISO up close is overwhelming. It's at the

657
00:29:41.960 --> 00:29:44.200
<v Speaker 4>top of the wish list for a lot of planetary scientists.

658
00:29:44.599 --> 00:29:46.599
<v Speaker 4>So I think we might see a real push for this,

659
00:29:47.000 --> 00:29:49.920
<v Speaker 4>maybe not as a huge, standalone flagship mission at first,

660
00:29:50.160 --> 00:29:53.079
<v Speaker 4>but maybe as part of a dedicated interceptor program.

661
00:29:52.799 --> 00:29:55.640
<v Speaker 2>Maybe a global coalition. This feels like something the whole

662
00:29:55.640 --> 00:29:58.440
<v Speaker 2>world should go in on. It's not really an American

663
00:29:58.480 --> 00:30:00.880
<v Speaker 2>mission or European mission, human mission.

664
00:30:01.279 --> 00:30:04.200
<v Speaker 4>It absolutely should be three iads. Loss doesn't care about

665
00:30:04.279 --> 00:30:07.559
<v Speaker 4>national borders. It's a visitor to planet Earth, not to

666
00:30:07.599 --> 00:30:08.559
<v Speaker 4>a specific country.

667
00:30:08.680 --> 00:30:12.000
<v Speaker 2>You know, thinking about that fifty year timeline again, it

668
00:30:12.039 --> 00:30:14.799
<v Speaker 2>reminds me of planting a tree. You don't plant an

669
00:30:14.799 --> 00:30:17.000
<v Speaker 2>oak tree for yourself. You know you'll never sit in

670
00:30:17.039 --> 00:30:19.319
<v Speaker 2>its full shade. You plant it for the shade it

671
00:30:19.359 --> 00:30:22.799
<v Speaker 2>will give your kids, your grandkids. This mission is a

672
00:30:22.839 --> 00:30:24.079
<v Speaker 2>scientific oak tree.

673
00:30:24.200 --> 00:30:27.039
<v Speaker 4>That is the perfect analogy. And in a world that

674
00:30:27.160 --> 00:30:30.200
<v Speaker 4>is so relentlessly focused on the now, on the next

675
00:30:30.200 --> 00:30:33.000
<v Speaker 4>news cycle, the next tweet, the next quarterly report, there

676
00:30:33.039 --> 00:30:37.519
<v Speaker 4>is something profoundly healthy about committing to a half century project.

677
00:30:37.960 --> 00:30:40.559
<v Speaker 4>It forces us to think long term. It forces us

678
00:30:40.599 --> 00:30:42.799
<v Speaker 4>to have faith that there will even be a civilization

679
00:30:42.880 --> 00:30:46.160
<v Speaker 4>here in twenty eighty five, with scientists ready and waiting

680
00:30:46.200 --> 00:30:47.039
<v Speaker 4>to receive the data.

681
00:30:47.160 --> 00:30:49.279
<v Speaker 3>It's an act of profound optimism it is.

682
00:30:49.599 --> 00:30:52.240
<v Speaker 4>Launching this probe is a statement. It's saying, we believe

683
00:30:52.279 --> 00:30:52.839
<v Speaker 4>in the future.

684
00:30:53.079 --> 00:30:53.559
<v Speaker 3>I love that.

685
00:30:53.880 --> 00:30:56.599
<v Speaker 2>So here we are February sixteenth, twenty twenty six. Three

686
00:30:56.640 --> 00:30:59.480
<v Speaker 2>I Atlas is speeding away from us at sixty kilometers

687
00:30:59.480 --> 00:31:02.200
<v Speaker 2>a second. It thinks it has escaped, but somewhere in

688
00:31:02.200 --> 00:31:04.200
<v Speaker 2>a lab, Adam Hibberd and his team were looking at

689
00:31:04.240 --> 00:31:07.119
<v Speaker 2>a computer screen, nodding and saying, not so fast.

690
00:31:07.319 --> 00:31:08.039
<v Speaker 4>We're coming for you.

691
00:31:08.319 --> 00:31:10.200
<v Speaker 3>We're coming for you. It's just going to take us

692
00:31:10.200 --> 00:31:11.039
<v Speaker 3>a while to get there.

693
00:31:11.200 --> 00:31:12.920
<v Speaker 4>Just a little while before we.

694
00:31:12.920 --> 00:31:14.839
<v Speaker 2>Wrap this up, I want to circle back to the

695
00:31:14.880 --> 00:31:18.559
<v Speaker 2>object itself one last time. Three I eight t Lass.

696
00:31:19.039 --> 00:31:21.680
<v Speaker 2>Do we know anything specific about it yet? I mean,

697
00:31:21.680 --> 00:31:23.440
<v Speaker 2>from the very brief look we've had.

698
00:31:23.319 --> 00:31:25.720
<v Speaker 4>So far, we do. We know that it's volatile rich,

699
00:31:26.279 --> 00:31:28.319
<v Speaker 4>which is a fancy way of saying it's acting like

700
00:31:28.359 --> 00:31:30.720
<v Speaker 4>a comet. As it got close to the Sun, it

701
00:31:30.799 --> 00:31:33.839
<v Speaker 4>started out gassing, forming a little coma and a tail.

702
00:31:34.839 --> 00:31:37.440
<v Speaker 4>That's actually really good news for a chase mission. Why

703
00:31:37.519 --> 00:31:41.200
<v Speaker 4>is that good news Because if it's actively outgassing, it's shedding,

704
00:31:41.319 --> 00:31:45.359
<v Speaker 4>it's throwing off particles of dust and gas. That means

705
00:31:45.359 --> 00:31:48.119
<v Speaker 4>we don't necessarily have to perform a risky landing or

706
00:31:48.160 --> 00:31:50.400
<v Speaker 4>impact on it to sample it. We just have to

707
00:31:50.440 --> 00:31:53.119
<v Speaker 4>fly through its tail. Hy we can use something like

708
00:31:53.160 --> 00:31:55.640
<v Speaker 4>aerogel collectors, which is what the Stardust mission used to

709
00:31:55.640 --> 00:31:58.319
<v Speaker 4>collect particles from a comet's tail back in the two thousands.

710
00:31:58.759 --> 00:32:01.160
<v Speaker 4>It makes the catch part of the mission a little

711
00:32:01.160 --> 00:32:03.240
<v Speaker 4>bit easier and safer. We don't have to dock with it.

712
00:32:03.240 --> 00:32:05.480
<v Speaker 4>We just have to intercept its wake, just drive through

713
00:32:05.519 --> 00:32:10.640
<v Speaker 4>the smoke exactly. But that cometary nature also adds a

714
00:32:10.720 --> 00:32:13.640
<v Speaker 4>layer of mystery. Where did it come from? The trajectory

715
00:32:13.640 --> 00:32:17.000
<v Speaker 4>traces back to well to nowhere specific yet there's no

716
00:32:17.119 --> 00:32:21.160
<v Speaker 4>obvious home star. It's been wandering the Milky Way for millions,

717
00:32:21.279 --> 00:32:22.039
<v Speaker 4>maybe billions of.

718
00:32:22.079 --> 00:32:24.240
<v Speaker 3>Years, a true galactic drifter.

719
00:32:24.119 --> 00:32:25.559
<v Speaker 4>Until it just happened to bump into us.

720
00:32:25.680 --> 00:32:29.119
<v Speaker 2>It really is a ghost, and this plan, the solar

721
00:32:29.200 --> 00:32:32.559
<v Speaker 2>O birth maneuver, it honestly feels like the kind of

722
00:32:32.559 --> 00:32:34.599
<v Speaker 2>thing that belongs in a future history book.

723
00:32:34.640 --> 00:32:35.759
<v Speaker 3>You know, in the year.

724
00:32:35.640 --> 00:32:38.519
<v Speaker 2>Twenty thirty five, humanity finally decided to reach out and

725
00:32:38.559 --> 00:32:39.559
<v Speaker 2>touch the galaxy.

726
00:32:40.000 --> 00:32:42.160
<v Speaker 4>It would be a defining moment. It would be the

727
00:32:42.160 --> 00:32:45.119
<v Speaker 4>moment we stopped being just passive observers of the universe

728
00:32:45.359 --> 00:32:48.319
<v Speaker 4>through our telescopes and started becoming actor participants in the

729
00:32:48.359 --> 00:32:49.319
<v Speaker 4>great galactic story.

730
00:32:49.440 --> 00:32:50.839
<v Speaker 3>Well, I, for one, am rooting for it.

731
00:32:50.880 --> 00:32:52.640
<v Speaker 2>I might be an old man when the data comes back,

732
00:32:52.720 --> 00:32:53.960
<v Speaker 2>or I might not be here at all, but I

733
00:32:54.000 --> 00:32:57.319
<v Speaker 2>would absolutely love to see that rocket clear the tower

734
00:32:57.359 --> 00:32:58.279
<v Speaker 2>in twenty thirty five.

735
00:32:58.359 --> 00:33:00.000
<v Speaker 4>I'll be right there watching with you.

736
00:33:00.119 --> 00:33:02.599
<v Speaker 2>So to everyone listening, take a look at the night

737
00:33:02.640 --> 00:33:05.079
<v Speaker 2>sky tonight. You won't be able to see three I

738
00:33:05.240 --> 00:33:07.920
<v Speaker 2>at Lists with your naked eye. It's already too far

739
00:33:07.960 --> 00:33:10.359
<v Speaker 2>and too dim now, But know that it's out there.

740
00:33:10.440 --> 00:33:13.640
<v Speaker 2>It's racing away into the dark. But if these brilliant

741
00:33:13.759 --> 00:33:17.119
<v Speaker 2>patient scientists have their way, we haven't seen the last

742
00:33:17.119 --> 00:33:18.839
<v Speaker 2>of it. We're just giving it a head start, a

743
00:33:18.880 --> 00:33:22.400
<v Speaker 2>fifty year head start challenge accepted. Absolutely, that's all the

744
00:33:22.440 --> 00:33:24.559
<v Speaker 2>time we have for this. Look at the incredible chase

745
00:33:24.599 --> 00:33:26.960
<v Speaker 2>for three ie at Lists. It's a story of speed

746
00:33:27.359 --> 00:33:30.920
<v Speaker 2>fire and an almost unbelievable amount of patience. And it

747
00:33:31.000 --> 00:33:34.319
<v Speaker 2>really asks us a pretty profound question, doesn't it. Are

748
00:33:34.359 --> 00:33:36.799
<v Speaker 2>we as a people willing to start something we know

749
00:33:36.880 --> 00:33:39.000
<v Speaker 2>we won't finish just for the sake of knowing what's

750
00:33:39.039 --> 00:33:39.440
<v Speaker 2>out there?

751
00:33:39.839 --> 00:33:41.640
<v Speaker 4>I really hope the answer is yes, me too.

752
00:33:42.319 --> 00:33:44.519
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening, everyone, Keep looking.

753
00:33:44.319 --> 00:33:45.759
<v Speaker 4>Up and keep thinking big.

754
00:33:45.839 --> 00:35:02.280
<v Speaker 5>We'll catch on the next one, said f.
