1 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 1: And hello, welcome to the Big Podcast on this Tuesday. 2 00:00:31,399 --> 00:00:36,159 Today is the tenth day of March, year of Our Lord, 3 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:41,439 twenty twenty six. My name is Tom Sullivan, and I 4 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:46,320 mean the war with Iran is underway. We'll give you 5 00:00:46,359 --> 00:00:50,600 a little synopsis on that. There is a debate, however, 6 00:00:51,399 --> 00:00:56,560 going on in the financial markets because since yesterday, oil prices, 7 00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:00,600 which normally we're trading before the war, somewhere in the 8 00:01:00,679 --> 00:01:03,399 high fifty to six little sixty. 9 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:05,400 Speaker 2: Dollars barrel of per barrel price, so. 10 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:07,920 Speaker 1: Fifty eight sixty two somewhere around in there for a 11 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:12,760 barrel of oil, and yesterday it went up, actually Sunday 12 00:01:12,879 --> 00:01:18,239 night went up to one hundred and nineteen dollars a barrel. 13 00:01:18,599 --> 00:01:23,799 And the reason for it, obviously, is the Strait of Hormuz, 14 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:29,480 through which twenty percent of the world's oil passes through 15 00:01:29,599 --> 00:01:35,079 that narrow, little twenty mile wide body of water off 16 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:39,920 the coast of Iran. So concern was they're not going 17 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:41,120 to be able to get through, and there's a whole 18 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:44,319 bunch of oil tankers out there that are just sitting 19 00:01:44,599 --> 00:01:48,719 idling waiting and they can't get through or they won't 20 00:01:48,799 --> 00:01:54,200 go through, and so that is causing the massive volatility 21 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:58,319 not only in the oil markets but at the gas 22 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:02,719 pump where you and I do business, but also the 23 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:06,159 stock market if you have stocks, or you have a 24 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:08,360 pension plan or something in a four oh one K 25 00:02:09,159 --> 00:02:12,919 so all that has an impact on your pocket so 26 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:15,840 I want to go over that. I also we got 27 00:02:15,879 --> 00:02:19,080 a report that comes out every I think it's quarterly 28 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:24,039 from Bank of America and what they do, without using 29 00:02:24,159 --> 00:02:27,360 anybody's name, they go through all the customers of Bank 30 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:31,240 of America to see how they're doing as far as 31 00:02:31,319 --> 00:02:35,439 spending and income. What are they depositing as far as 32 00:02:35,479 --> 00:02:39,599 paychecks or any kind of income, and then what are 33 00:02:39,599 --> 00:02:41,759 they spending their money on. So we have that as well, 34 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:45,159 and if you're going to the airport today, good luck. 35 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:48,879 I talked to a lady in Houston earlier today. She 36 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:54,280 said the local news in Houston yesterday Hobby Airport in 37 00:02:54,319 --> 00:03:00,840 Houston had a five hour TSA line and that apparently 38 00:03:01,199 --> 00:03:03,599 is much improved today. I think a lot of people 39 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:06,520 just heard about that and bagged it. But still, if 40 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:08,840 you have to travel, it's not just Houston. There's a 41 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:11,439 bunch of reports where there's there's problems. She told me 42 00:03:11,479 --> 00:03:14,560 she said that they were they bust a bunch of 43 00:03:15,879 --> 00:03:19,680 TSA agents over from Dallas. So does that leave Dallas 44 00:03:19,719 --> 00:03:25,759 Fort Worth without enough TSA? So anyway, it's yeah, whack 45 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:30,520 them all out there. Let's start with General Cain, the 46 00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:33,439 Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. This was his 47 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:38,240 report on the status of the war effort this morning. 48 00:03:39,199 --> 00:03:41,639 Speaker 3: We'll look at the range of options to set the 49 00:03:41,719 --> 00:03:45,240 military conditions to be able to do that, and then, 50 00:03:45,439 --> 00:03:48,879 like we always do with every potential mission, come to 51 00:03:48,919 --> 00:03:51,479 the Secretary and the President with both what are the 52 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:54,719 resources required, what is the command and control required? And 53 00:03:54,759 --> 00:03:57,199 what are the risks and how do we mitigate those risks? 54 00:03:57,199 --> 00:03:59,800 So we're looking at a range of options there. 55 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:03,479 Speaker 1: I wanted to start with him because I just don't 56 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:09,120 I'm sorry, the politicians you have to have you have 57 00:04:09,159 --> 00:04:13,599 to have incredible honesty and integrity when it comes to 58 00:04:13,719 --> 00:04:18,360 telling the American people how a war in our name 59 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:20,879 is going. So I thought, well, we'll start with General 60 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:28,319 Kain and go from there. Let's talk oil. Oil equals 61 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:32,199 a couple of things. That equals eventually the gas you 62 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:36,439 buy at the gas station, and it also equals inflation. 63 00:04:37,519 --> 00:04:43,000 And that's before the war. So just a week, a 64 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:45,839 little over a week ago, that was the big thing, 65 00:04:46,079 --> 00:04:49,000 was about the cost of things, affordability. 66 00:04:49,879 --> 00:04:50,920 Speaker 2: Man, that's disappeared. 67 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:55,160 Speaker 1: Also, the Epstein story has disappeared, not completely disappeared. But 68 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:57,959 let's get back to this whole oil business. Phil Flynn, 69 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:01,560 I'm known Phil for a long time. He's an oil 70 00:05:01,759 --> 00:05:07,000 and energy gas trater at the CME in Chicago. See 71 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:09,360 what Phil has to say about this crazy mark. 72 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:14,279 Speaker 4: They've been We've never seen anything like it, with this volatility. 73 00:05:14,519 --> 00:05:17,160 But the futures market agrees with President Trump. They've been 74 00:05:17,199 --> 00:05:20,160 betting on a win for this war from the very beginning, 75 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:22,839 and a very quick one at that. It's been the 76 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:24,759 front end of the curve where we've seen all the 77 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:27,800 panic and the movement. But I think right now, with 78 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:31,000 the biggest reversal in oil price history, I think the 79 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:34,000 market's already seeing signs that this could be coming to them. 80 00:05:34,399 --> 00:05:37,439 You know that report today by the Energy Secretary about 81 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:40,160 the navy presence, you know, getting that through the straits 82 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:43,720 of hormones, it was removed. Whether or not that's true, 83 00:05:43,879 --> 00:05:47,759 A lot of the private tanker tracking companies are suggesting 84 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:51,279 that the tankers are moving. We did see one tanker 85 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:53,519 from Iran get through with ten two million barres. So 86 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:55,959 it is happening, you know, whether or not the Navy's 87 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:58,399 helping them or they're doing it on their own. There 88 00:05:58,439 --> 00:06:00,120 is traffic starting to move. 89 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:04,959 Speaker 1: There's a trickle, and we don't know if they're oil tankers. 90 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:07,639 And again if they have an Iranian flag, of course 91 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:10,199 the Iranians are going to let them through. But even 92 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:14,480 if they are carrying oil and gas, the supply needs 93 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:17,399 to be ramped up a lot. We are really short 94 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:20,959 and a lot of the oil producing countries are cutting 95 00:06:21,000 --> 00:06:24,720 back on their production because I told you yesterday they 96 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:26,759 don't have storage for what are they going to do 97 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:29,000 with it when it comes out of the ground. So 98 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:35,480 even if the war was halted today, it would take well, 99 00:06:35,519 --> 00:06:37,439 I'll play for you a number of oil and analysts 100 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:40,759 talking about how long it'll take for oil prices to 101 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:41,519 come back down. 102 00:06:42,959 --> 00:06:45,360 Speaker 4: It always is going to take longer to come back down. 103 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 2: You know. 104 00:06:46,439 --> 00:06:49,519 Speaker 4: Gasoline stations and buyers are like wimpley, I'll gladly pay 105 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:52,920 you tomorrow for gasoline today. So they're already running behind, 106 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:57,360 and so when prices take off, they usually lose money 107 00:06:57,720 --> 00:06:59,680 at the tank, and they have to make that up 108 00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:01,199 on the way down. But they have to make sure 109 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:04,439 they secure supply, so they pay up through the NILS 110 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:06,120 just to make sure they have it, and then when 111 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:08,199 they don't need it, they need to make some money 112 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:10,160 out of the way down. But I'll tell you this, looking 113 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:12,720 at the future's prices, I think you're going to see 114 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:16,800 a correction much faster than people than you normally see. 115 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:19,759 At first, prices will go up because they're still playing ketchup, 116 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:22,759 but you could see prices actually plummet to lower than 117 00:07:22,839 --> 00:07:25,360 where they were before the war. If things keep going 118 00:07:25,399 --> 00:07:26,079 the way they're going. 119 00:07:26,319 --> 00:07:30,079 Speaker 1: That's Phil Flynn. He says the futures markets are pointing 120 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:34,160 towards these prices coming back. He didn't say to where 121 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:39,040 coming back down and quicker than a lot of people thought. Well, 122 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:44,480 today is a big day about the strategic petroleum reserve. 123 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:46,720 We have one and a bunch of other countries have 124 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:50,959 them as well. So the G seven ministers were supposed 125 00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:54,639 to meet this morning to decide what to do about 126 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:59,439 are they going to release oil from the various strategic 127 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:03,439 patrol reserves in Europe and here in the United States? 128 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:10,639 And well, Chuck Schumer is all for that. That should 129 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:12,480 give you some cash caution. 130 00:08:12,639 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 5: Already, strategic petroleum reserve exists precisely for moments like this. 131 00:08:19,759 --> 00:08:22,480 If President Trump cared about easing pain at the pump, 132 00:08:23,319 --> 00:08:25,160 he would act to release these reserves. 133 00:08:25,199 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 1: Now, well, let's go back to the oil trader, the 134 00:08:28,879 --> 00:08:32,639 cmme Phil Flynn. See what he thinks about the oil 135 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:38,000 trader Chuck Schumer and his oil advice. Does Phil Flynn 136 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:40,440 agree with Chuck Schumer? 137 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:44,720 Speaker 4: No, I don't, And I'll tell you what. Senator Schumer 138 00:08:44,759 --> 00:08:47,320 would be one of the worst oil traders in history. 139 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:47,639 Speaker 1: Right. 140 00:08:47,759 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 4: You know when President Trump wanted to buy oil at 141 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:52,600 twenty dollars, he said, oh, oh, this is just a 142 00:08:52,639 --> 00:08:55,879 handout to save the big oil companies. Now he's like, hey, 143 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:58,120 we should you know be you know, the big oil 144 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:00,039 companies need to bail us out, so you can. I 145 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:01,240 guess he can have it both ways. 146 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:02,960 Speaker 2: I tried some other oil traders. 147 00:09:03,399 --> 00:09:08,519 Speaker 1: This guy isn't an oil trader specifically, he's a financial genius. 148 00:09:08,919 --> 00:09:12,720 He really is Muhammad el Arian And he was asked 149 00:09:12,759 --> 00:09:17,120 about the oil markets and what his take is on it. 150 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:17,960 Speaker 2: It is wild. 151 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:19,759 Speaker 6: So I don't think I've ever seen anything like this. 152 00:09:19,919 --> 00:09:24,039 We went from seventy dollars a barrel a week ago 153 00:09:24,159 --> 00:09:26,480 to almost one hundred and twenty, and now, like you said, 154 00:09:26,519 --> 00:09:30,639 we bagged below eighty. We've come back for three reasons. 155 00:09:30,919 --> 00:09:35,120 One is President Trump saying that the war will be 156 00:09:35,159 --> 00:09:39,399 over soon. Second, we've had a tanker a company through 157 00:09:39,399 --> 00:09:42,559 the Strait of Homus today, which is a very important 158 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:48,039 psychological message. And then third we have a coordinated agreement 159 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:52,720 to release strategic reserves and that has brought all all 160 00:09:52,759 --> 00:09:55,399 the way down from one hundred and twenty, which would 161 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:56,759 have really hurt the economy. 162 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:01,399 Speaker 1: So we're not sure if tanker escorted through, but if 163 00:10:01,399 --> 00:10:03,720 there was one that were thinking it was an Iranian 164 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:10,159 flag tanker that they said, sure, go ahead. We're getting 165 00:10:10,159 --> 00:10:12,480 into more of that as we go through the podcast 166 00:10:12,519 --> 00:10:16,279 here today. The other item about this is whether you 167 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:19,120 rely upon the fact that President Trump said that this 168 00:10:19,159 --> 00:10:22,840 will be over sooner than later. He was very optimistic. 169 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:27,279 But that's Donald Trump. He's optimistic about everything that he does. 170 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:32,600 So back to the G seven ministers, as I'm recording 171 00:10:32,639 --> 00:10:36,440 this podcast, they met this morning and the word came 172 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:39,200 out from the meeting that they said, no, they do 173 00:10:39,399 --> 00:10:44,159 not want to release any oil from the strategic petroleum 174 00:10:44,279 --> 00:10:49,039 reserves in the various countries of the G seven. Then 175 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:50,960 they came out of the meeting and said, well, we 176 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:53,440 never really made a decision, so we're going to meet 177 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:57,320 again this afternoon or this evening. So at this point 178 00:10:57,399 --> 00:11:00,360 we don't know, and it doesn't appear that they know 179 00:11:00,759 --> 00:11:03,159 what they want to do. But at this point there's 180 00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:09,720 no official release of the strategic Petroleum reserves, the SPR 181 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:12,600 as it's called now. Chuck Schumer said that when Joe 182 00:11:12,639 --> 00:11:16,519 Biden released all that oil for political reasons back a 183 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:19,759 few years ago, that it made a huge difference in 184 00:11:19,759 --> 00:11:22,919 the oil price. And the answer is it doesn't. David 185 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:27,600 Goldman is also a truth checker on oil and gas 186 00:11:27,639 --> 00:11:29,559 statements like that. Here's David Goldman. 187 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:33,159 Speaker 7: Well, it would it just wouldn't make that much of 188 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:35,960 a dent. And we know that because in twenty twenty two, 189 00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:39,960 President Biden released one hundred and eighty million barrels of 190 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:43,600 oil from a strategic petroleum reserve, and by the Biden 191 00:11:43,639 --> 00:11:49,679 administration's own calculations, gas prices only fell by around seventeen cents. 192 00:11:49,799 --> 00:11:51,600 Speaker 2: So that's not a huge dent. 193 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:54,960 Speaker 7: And that, by the way, it took four months to accomplish, 194 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:57,360 and so that would get us back down to the 195 00:11:57,399 --> 00:12:01,039 mid threes, but not nearly we're we were before, which 196 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:04,399 was below three dollars. The other thing is that once 197 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:07,440 you release all of that oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, 198 00:12:07,639 --> 00:12:10,279 it's like pulling a trigger that you can only pull once. 199 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:13,000 You don't get to do it again until new supply 200 00:12:13,159 --> 00:12:18,200 comes on. So it's maybe helpful, but not a catchall. 201 00:12:18,279 --> 00:12:20,879 Speaker 1: So if it is able to help a little bit, 202 00:12:20,919 --> 00:12:25,399 if they do the release from the SPRS, how fast 203 00:12:25,799 --> 00:12:29,279 will it come down, because it certainly prices have gone well, 204 00:12:29,399 --> 00:12:32,679 let me give you the average gas price across the 205 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:37,320 country today is three dollars and fifty four cents three 206 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:40,639 point fifty four. It was two eighty five just a 207 00:12:40,639 --> 00:12:43,759 little over a week ago, so it's gone up a 208 00:12:43,799 --> 00:12:47,480 sixty five cents a gallon something along those lines. I'm 209 00:12:47,519 --> 00:12:51,120 looking at the triple A map, and yes, the winner 210 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:57,879 of how who has the most expensive oil is gasoline, 211 00:12:57,879 --> 00:13:00,840 I should say, is the state of California. And if 212 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:03,799 you look at California, if you go way up to 213 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:10,039 northern California, Humboldt County is five dollars and eighty cents. 214 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:14,120 The average for the entire state of California is now 215 00:13:14,159 --> 00:13:18,960 five dollars in twenty nine cents. So prices have gone 216 00:13:19,039 --> 00:13:21,360 way up, and the poor people in California have already 217 00:13:21,399 --> 00:13:26,799 been paying an excessive amount. But will releasing some from 218 00:13:26,879 --> 00:13:31,720 the strategic Petroleum Reserve? Will that actually drop prices immediately? 219 00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:35,279 Speaker 7: Yeah, this such a common occurrence that the industry actually 220 00:13:35,279 --> 00:13:37,679 has its own term for it. They call it rockets 221 00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:41,279 and feathers. When oil goes up, gas prices shoot up 222 00:13:41,399 --> 00:13:44,320 like a rocket and they come down like a feather. 223 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:48,559 And you know, gas stations make very little profit, surprisingly 224 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:52,639 little profit on gasoline sales. Also, if you bought a 225 00:13:52,799 --> 00:13:56,559 tanker of gas and filled your station at three fifty 226 00:13:56,559 --> 00:14:00,519 four today and oil starts to come down, that doesn't 227 00:14:00,519 --> 00:14:03,000 necessarily mean that you can sell it for cheaper. You 228 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:06,559 got to sell all of that gas before you start 229 00:14:06,639 --> 00:14:09,279 to make a little bit more profit on that. You 230 00:14:09,279 --> 00:14:11,840 also don't want to be the first neighborhood gas station 231 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:15,399 to sell cheaper. You're looking for other folks to do that. So, 232 00:14:15,799 --> 00:14:18,399 you know, we saw this also in twenty twenty two 233 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:22,000 when oil fell about twenty dollars in just a matter 234 00:14:22,039 --> 00:14:26,000 of weeks. It took several months for oil to come 235 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:27,799 back below four dollars a gallon. 236 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:29,360 Speaker 2: Well, yeah, you heard that right. 237 00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:33,720 Speaker 1: If we ended the war today and the straight up 238 00:14:33,759 --> 00:14:38,120 our moves opened this afternoon, it would take months for 239 00:14:38,279 --> 00:14:43,320 the price of oil to go back down. And well, 240 00:14:43,879 --> 00:14:52,039 Clayton Siegel, he's an award winning economist who specializes on 241 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:54,399 this topic of oil and gas. 242 00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:56,519 Speaker 2: Let's see what he has to say about. 243 00:14:56,759 --> 00:15:01,039 Speaker 8: Well, it depends by region and by fuel type. The 244 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:03,720 major economies of the world have about one point two 245 00:15:03,919 --> 00:15:07,919 billion barrels of oil and products on and in their reserves. 246 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:10,799 It sounds like a big number, but we're missing. We're 247 00:15:10,799 --> 00:15:14,440 digging a hole of twenty million barrels per day. So 248 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:17,200 do the math. That's I mean total, that's total sixty 249 00:15:17,279 --> 00:15:20,440 days of cover at this rate of deficit. But I 250 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:22,320 think that what would happen is if we can, if 251 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:25,679 we consider the possibility of drawing down these reserves, it's 252 00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:27,559 going to be very judicious. It's not going to be 253 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:30,360 all at once. We're going to look at which countries 254 00:15:30,399 --> 00:15:35,360 and regions are missing, which types of oil products, Certain 255 00:15:35,399 --> 00:15:39,159 types of liquid petroleum gases are used for cooking in 256 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:43,440 certain parts of the world like India and Southern Asia. 257 00:15:43,799 --> 00:15:46,279 In other parts of the world like Europe, it's about 258 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:49,799 middle distillates like jet fuel and diesel fuel, and so 259 00:15:49,879 --> 00:15:53,159 I think that we would consider a smart strategic drawdown 260 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:55,600 of those reserves to get the right types of fuels 261 00:15:55,639 --> 00:15:57,080 to the right countries on time. 262 00:15:57,480 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 1: Again, we're still waiting to find out exactly what the 263 00:16:00,639 --> 00:16:04,279 G seven ministers are going to do about any sort 264 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:08,000 of release of strategic petroleum reserve oil. As far as 265 00:16:08,039 --> 00:16:11,039 our economy goes back to Clayton Siegel. 266 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:16,519 Speaker 8: Yeah, it's very simple. To have a prosperous economy. We 267 00:16:16,639 --> 00:16:19,960 have to restore that twenty million barrels per day of 268 00:16:20,039 --> 00:16:22,840 oil supply that comes out of the Mid East Gulf region. 269 00:16:23,039 --> 00:16:26,559 There really are no substitutes. I think that markets do 270 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:30,200 know this, and they are purely trading on what President 271 00:16:30,279 --> 00:16:33,600 Trump says he will or will not do with regard 272 00:16:33,639 --> 00:16:36,240 to the war in Iran. So when he last week, 273 00:16:36,279 --> 00:16:40,279 when he was talking about things like unconditional surrender being 274 00:16:40,279 --> 00:16:44,440 a war objective, prices surge. When he makes a different 275 00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:49,120 declaration yesterday like the war maybe winding up soon, obviously, 276 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:52,200 prices recede. And we saw that yesterday. But here's the problem. 277 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,399 And you know, as we say, the enemy gets a vote. 278 00:16:55,759 --> 00:16:57,679 And just to read from the headline that was crossing 279 00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:01,519 my wire, markets bet that Trump will end war soon. 280 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:05,759 Traders are assuming that when he does that normal export 281 00:17:05,799 --> 00:17:09,799 flows will resume because the Iranians also need the export revenue. 282 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:13,079 But what if they don't. What if Iran continues to 283 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:17,000 disrupt shipping or the offshore infrastructure that's used to load 284 00:17:17,039 --> 00:17:20,799 those ships and enable those exports even after President Trump 285 00:17:21,079 --> 00:17:24,400 cause it quits announces the end of major combat operations. 286 00:17:25,079 --> 00:17:28,640 That is an underappreciated risk in the market in my opinion. 287 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:34,400 Speaker 1: But what about using our navy to escort oil tankers 288 00:17:34,559 --> 00:17:36,960 through the straight up hormoes. 289 00:17:37,799 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 8: First of all, a lot of the measures that are 290 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:44,039 being considered in Washington this week are simply bridges to 291 00:17:44,079 --> 00:17:48,279 buy us more time to get the frozen exports moving again. 292 00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:51,920 We need those in addition to not instead of the 293 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:54,920 resumption of exports. When it comes to lifting the sanctions, look, 294 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:57,559 I mean there's no way around it. Putin is the 295 00:17:57,559 --> 00:18:00,759 big winner on two fronts from this. When it comes 296 00:18:00,799 --> 00:18:03,839 to lifting the sanctions, this was a time when the 297 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:08,160 sanctions that President Trump smartly initiated last November on two 298 00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:11,480 big Russian oil companies, Luke Oil and Rossneft. They're just 299 00:18:11,559 --> 00:18:14,960 starting to bite in the Russian economy and maybe constrict 300 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:18,559 Kutin's ability to carry on this war on Ukraine. And 301 00:18:18,599 --> 00:18:21,519 now to lift those sanctions and allow Russian oil prices 302 00:18:21,519 --> 00:18:24,400 to rise again is just going to improve the Kremlin's 303 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:28,240 war chest to confront Ukraine and NATO. And also, we're 304 00:18:28,319 --> 00:18:32,920 running through a lot of stocks of our best weapons systems, munitions, 305 00:18:33,319 --> 00:18:35,079 and there's going to be less to go around to 306 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:36,920 defend Ukraine and support NATO. 307 00:18:37,039 --> 00:18:37,480 Speaker 2: So it's a. 308 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:39,559 Speaker 8: Double win in Moscow, I'm afraid. 309 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:41,960 Speaker 1: I think you heard them right. Is that by reducing 310 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:46,880 the sanctions on Russia, that means that they will be 311 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:50,039 able to take advantage of the high prices of oil 312 00:18:50,519 --> 00:18:54,279 and that will fund their ability to continue the war 313 00:18:54,279 --> 00:18:59,759 against Ukraine. And meantime, the sanctions on the oil were 314 00:18:59,759 --> 00:19:03,839 as as Clayton said, We're just starting to bite pretty 315 00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:07,319 strongly on the Russian economy and now those sanctions have 316 00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:11,480 been done away with. Meanwhile, back here in the United States, 317 00:19:12,079 --> 00:19:14,680 prices are not going to come down fast. 318 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:16,960 Speaker 8: The adage in our market is up like a rocket 319 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:20,599 and down like a feather. So the entire market, including 320 00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:24,200 the refining and distribution system, is preparing for higher prices 321 00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:24,720 for longer. 322 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:25,519 Speaker 2: All right. 323 00:19:25,559 --> 00:19:29,759 Speaker 1: So there's another oil expert who's talking about oil prices 324 00:19:29,839 --> 00:19:34,200 are going to stay higher rather than lower for quite 325 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:37,039 some time. All right, one more oil analysts. This guy 326 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:40,599 can get pretty heavy because of the fact that he 327 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:46,440 is one of the top oil craters on Wall Street. 328 00:19:47,079 --> 00:19:50,720 Speaker 2: His name is Jeff Curry. He's with Carlisle. 329 00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:53,720 Speaker 9: It tells you that this market's entirely driven by a sentiment. 330 00:19:53,799 --> 00:19:57,359 Right now, I think the bottom line is the market 331 00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:01,400 is not recognizing the severity of this situation. It can 332 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,759 make the following observation polymarket. After all, this is pricing 333 00:20:04,759 --> 00:20:08,559 above a ninety percent probability this the straits remain closed 334 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:11,559 till the end of March. That's thirty one days. And 335 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:15,640 you look at let's say, you know, netting out Saudi redirection, 336 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,440 you're around eighteen million barrels per day that's likely lost. 337 00:20:19,519 --> 00:20:22,000 Then you can add another let's say, two to three 338 00:20:22,079 --> 00:20:23,400 million barrels per day of hoarding on. 339 00:20:23,519 --> 00:20:24,440 Speaker 3: So that's you'll get you. 340 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 9: Twenty one twenty two million barrels per day over thirty 341 00:20:27,079 --> 00:20:29,400 one days, that's close to, you know, well over six 342 00:20:29,519 --> 00:20:32,920 hundred million barrels. It's not only being mispriced in oil, 343 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:36,519 but the rest of the financial complex. And I think 344 00:20:36,559 --> 00:20:39,319 part of it there's a level of complacency. They won't 345 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:41,960 something's going to happen between now in the end of 346 00:20:42,039 --> 00:20:45,359 March to actually open it, because we know how catastrophic 347 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:46,960 it is. And I think that's the play that the 348 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:51,440 financial markets are betting on. But every single expert out 349 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,200 there is going to tell you two to four weeks 350 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:56,839 in they're going to agree with poly market. So something's 351 00:20:57,079 --> 00:20:57,880 misaligned here. 352 00:20:59,039 --> 00:21:01,119 Speaker 1: So he's talking about the straight up our moves not 353 00:21:01,279 --> 00:21:03,559 being back to normal for till the end of the month. 354 00:21:04,519 --> 00:21:07,200 And like you said, he used the word catastrophic. That 355 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:12,039 truly would be catastrophic, and that's why he disagrees with 356 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,599 the market all of a sudden pushing oil prices down. 357 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:16,720 He thinks they're going to go right back up again. 358 00:21:17,319 --> 00:21:21,200 And about those ships going through, a couple of them 359 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:22,839 crickling through here's what he said. 360 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:26,160 Speaker 9: We don't know if those are ships carrying food or 361 00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,759 something of that nature. But I think when we look 362 00:21:28,799 --> 00:21:33,119 at the volume from our standing from insurance the cruise. 363 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:35,200 The crews don't even want to get on the ships. 364 00:21:36,279 --> 00:21:38,599 It's a very dangerous strait to go through right now. 365 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:40,720 And if it's a trickle, it's not going to it's 366 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,759 a drop in the bucket relative to how large of 367 00:21:43,759 --> 00:21:47,240 a disruption. And this whole you know, i EA coordinated 368 00:21:47,559 --> 00:21:50,519 response is still it's not going to be enough to 369 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:53,680 actually dent anything here. I like to point out there 370 00:21:53,799 --> 00:21:57,119 is no policy response that can stop crude of sense 371 00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,400 until you open the strait. I think by released in 372 00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:03,960 the SPR, it's a signal to the market that they 373 00:22:04,079 --> 00:22:05,960 don't believe this thing is going to resolve itself in 374 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,240 the next couple of days. And also you got to 375 00:22:08,279 --> 00:22:11,559 ask that SPR in the US is meant for US refineries. 376 00:22:11,559 --> 00:22:13,519 There's not a problem in the US. The problem is 377 00:22:13,519 --> 00:22:16,240 in Asia. It's in places like Singapore where jet fuels 378 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:18,839 that two hundred and eighty one dollars are two hundred 379 00:22:18,839 --> 00:22:21,640 and thirty one dollars a barrel. So how is releasing 380 00:22:22,079 --> 00:22:28,039 European G seven SPR resolve the situation halfway across the planet. 381 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:30,680 When you get the size of the magnitude of this 382 00:22:30,799 --> 00:22:34,519 shock means you're going to see extreme volatility, extremely volatile, 383 00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:37,079 and you know, in terms of one hundred dollars a barrel, 384 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:39,440 you got there and the equity market didn't care. The 385 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,440 bottom line is, if this goes on for another week, 386 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:44,680 you got a really serious problem. And if it goes 387 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,680 as long as any exports or publy markets suggest. You know, 388 00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:50,799 I'm not not going to use the term that you know, 389 00:22:50,839 --> 00:22:53,480 the CEO of RAMPCO used because I don't want to 390 00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:55,720 be quoted for it. But that's probably how severe the 391 00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:59,480 situation is. Every time of these happened with a geopolitical event, 392 00:22:59,759 --> 00:23:03,160 we're not going back to the world that existed on February. 393 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,640 The morning of February twenty eighth, you're going to see 394 00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:09,440 sustainably higher oil prices. Whether it's from hoarding, You're gonna 395 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:11,480 lose production in the Middle East, whether if it's on 396 00:23:11,519 --> 00:23:14,960 the LNGC side oil side. You're not going to restart 397 00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:17,519 seven million barrels per day without any hiccups. 398 00:23:17,559 --> 00:23:18,440 Speaker 4: It's going to take months. 399 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:20,400 Speaker 1: Let's review you a little bit of what he said. 400 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:24,720 He said that the SPR. So what if the G 401 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:28,319 seven says, let's release oil from the SPR the strategic 402 00:23:28,319 --> 00:23:31,640 patrolling reserves in the various G seven countries. Even if 403 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,759 we release them from our country, we don't need it. 404 00:23:35,559 --> 00:23:40,880 Our strategic petroleum reserve is for our oil refineries. 405 00:23:41,559 --> 00:23:45,119 Speaker 2: We have enough oil. There's no shortage here. 406 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 1: The eighty percent of the oil that goes through this 407 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:53,559 strate of horror moves, eighty percent of it goes to Asia. 408 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,759 Another twenty percent of it goes around and up the 409 00:23:56,799 --> 00:24:00,759 Red Sea and into Europe. I mean there may be 410 00:24:00,839 --> 00:24:02,880 a drop or two that winds up in the US, 411 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:07,519 but I don't see it. So the exporting from and 412 00:24:07,599 --> 00:24:11,359 the problem with the Strategic Patrol Reserve isn't the quantity 413 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:16,000 of oil. The problem is the price of oil, and 414 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:21,079 oil is priced globally. Even though we've got lots of oil, 415 00:24:21,839 --> 00:24:26,799 and even if we release some from URSPR, it won't 416 00:24:26,839 --> 00:24:29,359 affect the supply, it will affect the price. And the 417 00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:33,720 price of oil in Italy is the same price roughly 418 00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:36,359 that we get in the United States, that we get 419 00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,480 in Japan, that we get and you name it. So 420 00:24:39,599 --> 00:24:42,720 that is one the other things you heard him say 421 00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:45,440 is we're not going back. We're not going to go 422 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,599 back to that fifty eight dollars sixty two dollars barrel 423 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:52,279 of oil any time soon. He's thinking that this is 424 00:24:52,319 --> 00:24:57,000 going to last for quite some time, even if hostilities 425 00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:00,799 ended this afternoon. So let's get off oil and talk 426 00:25:00,839 --> 00:25:06,039 about just everything else regarding your pocketbook. Very financial, very 427 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:09,680 oil markets today. I realize that, but this is the 428 00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:12,640 time to try and put this kind of information out. 429 00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:18,240 Liz chris Burg runs the project at Bank of America 430 00:25:18,759 --> 00:25:22,359 where they go through the Bank of America customers. They 431 00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:24,519 don't pay attention to the names. They're looking at the 432 00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:29,160 at the metrics of how much money people are depositing, 433 00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:33,839 how much are they earning versus how much are they spending, 434 00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:39,880 And the question comes down to our consumers doing Okay, 435 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,640 here's Liz Kreeberg from Bank of America. 436 00:25:44,839 --> 00:25:47,400 Speaker 10: What I would say is that that spending just you know, 437 00:25:47,599 --> 00:25:50,240 moved up sharply. If you looked at you talked about 438 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:53,319 three point two percent, biggest number year over year in 439 00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:57,319 three years seasonally adjusted was up a whopping nine tenths. 440 00:25:57,599 --> 00:26:00,319 That's the biggest in you know, three plus years. Two 441 00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:03,680 What's interesting is if you dig down and look at 442 00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:06,559 it categorically, we saw strength across the board. It was 443 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:11,480 very broad retail services everywhere, but where you didn't see 444 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:15,200 the strength be uniform or universal was in terms of 445 00:26:15,279 --> 00:26:19,000 how the consumer the different types of consumers higher income, 446 00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:22,400 lower income. It's an uneven resilience. And so I think 447 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,839 the takeaway for me is that the K shape is continuing. 448 00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:26,119 Speaker 2: Yeah, the K shape economy. 449 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:29,880 Speaker 1: So that top arm of the K is the higher 450 00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:33,000 income people and the lower part of the K that 451 00:26:33,039 --> 00:26:36,240 goes down to the bottom is obviously the lower income. 452 00:26:36,799 --> 00:26:38,319 Speaker 10: And I think there's two ways that you can look 453 00:26:38,319 --> 00:26:40,240 at the K. One is on the spending side, one 454 00:26:40,279 --> 00:26:42,640 is on the wage growth side. Now, the good news 455 00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:45,920 on the spending K is that that actually narrowed a 456 00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:49,680 little bit, so everyone higher, middle, lower increased their spending, 457 00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:52,680 but lower income spending, which was zero point three percent 458 00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:55,720 in January almost quadrupled to up one point one. So 459 00:26:55,759 --> 00:26:58,480 they were really able to narrow the gap with higher 460 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:01,720 income spending, and in fact, that's probably now the narrows 461 00:27:01,759 --> 00:27:04,559 we've seen in about six months. The same is not 462 00:27:04,759 --> 00:27:07,640 true though, on the flip side with wage growth, and 463 00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,480 what we saw on wage growth is higher income wages 464 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:15,640 continuing to accelerate north of four percent, that's the strongest 465 00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:18,319 level in almost four years. Whereas what we saw for 466 00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,279 middle and lower income households. Is their wage growth actually 467 00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:24,799 cooled by about thirty basis points. So now you've got 468 00:27:24,839 --> 00:27:28,960 the widest gap between higher and lower income wage growth 469 00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,039 in at least ten years, going back to the start 470 00:27:32,039 --> 00:27:33,480 of our series in twenty fifteen. 471 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,160 Speaker 1: So last Friday, we had the jobs report for you, 472 00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:39,359 and it was a surprise, but there were ninety some 473 00:27:39,559 --> 00:27:44,720 thousand payrolls lost in the month of February. Is that 474 00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:46,440 what Bank of America. 475 00:27:46,079 --> 00:27:48,440 Speaker 10: Saw and didn't see the same thing what we saw 476 00:27:48,599 --> 00:27:50,279 in terms of payrolls and the way that we look 477 00:27:50,319 --> 00:27:52,440 at it. I think it's important to understand. The methodology 478 00:27:52,799 --> 00:27:55,039 is we look at the number of households that are 479 00:27:55,079 --> 00:27:58,599 receiving income right and just purely are you receiving income, 480 00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,400 not higher or lower. We actually saw an increase of 481 00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:04,480 one point three percent looking at that data, so a 482 00:28:04,519 --> 00:28:07,400 little bit of a disconnect there. It could have something 483 00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:11,359 to do with people receiving income from multiple sources. So 484 00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:16,319 if someone were supplementing their job by being a gig worker, right, 485 00:28:16,319 --> 00:28:18,319 that would still count as income for us, but it's 486 00:28:18,319 --> 00:28:20,640 not certainly the same type of income. And that may 487 00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:22,559 also explain why we're seeing some of the weakness in 488 00:28:22,599 --> 00:28:24,720 lower income, but our numbers would tell you that it 489 00:28:24,799 --> 00:28:27,599 wasn't as bad as what the BLS said, Right, So 490 00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,200 that's it. But where I do think that we want 491 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:33,000 to come back to is that the strength really is 492 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:36,400 in the higher income consumer, the higher income wages. Those 493 00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:38,440 are the ones that are going up. And you're seeing 494 00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:43,119 this cooling in middle and lower income households, and that's where, 495 00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:45,039 you know, that's where we're starting to get a little concerned. 496 00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:47,839 Speaker 1: Yeah, And that's the problem with that is that leads 497 00:28:47,839 --> 00:28:51,920 to all kinds of social problems where we have a 498 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:56,240 division that's growing wider and wider between the haves and 499 00:28:56,279 --> 00:28:59,039 the have nots, or the higher income and the middle 500 00:28:59,079 --> 00:29:03,119 and lower income. So congratulations to the higher income people, 501 00:29:03,119 --> 00:29:06,279 but we've got to figure out how to solve the 502 00:29:06,319 --> 00:29:11,640 income for everybody else. So, if you have income, are 503 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:15,400 you spending it on travel? Are you going places? Because 504 00:29:15,759 --> 00:29:21,240 the airports are a total mess. Congress will not, well, 505 00:29:21,279 --> 00:29:24,680 the Democrats in Congress will not fund a Department of 506 00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:25,640 Homeland Security. 507 00:29:26,039 --> 00:29:26,960 Speaker 2: And that's the. 508 00:29:26,839 --> 00:29:31,799 Speaker 1: Coast Guard, and that's TSA, and that's Cyber Command, and 509 00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,759 it's a secret serve. It's a number of things Chad Woll, 510 00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:39,480 former director of DHS, weight in. 511 00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,240 Speaker 11: Well, I think it's a real concern. Again, these are 512 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:45,839 the same folks that went without paychecks for forty three 513 00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:50,319 days last year during the last government shutdown, and so 514 00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:53,599 this is a real concern. As you indicated, they are 515 00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,400 frontline workers. They left paycheck to paycheck, and as they 516 00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:58,599 miss paychecks, they've got to figure out where does the 517 00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:01,240 rent come from, where does the few come from? And 518 00:30:01,279 --> 00:30:05,079 so what you're seeing today is isolated at several airports. 519 00:30:05,079 --> 00:30:08,440 It's very airport specific, but you see call out rates. 520 00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,480 So screeners start to call out, sick, they start to 521 00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:13,559 call out because they need to take other jobs to 522 00:30:13,599 --> 00:30:16,559 put food on the table for their families. And so, look, 523 00:30:16,599 --> 00:30:21,559 this is all entirely preventable. You know, DHS should be 524 00:30:21,599 --> 00:30:23,640 fully funded, particularly now to time when we have a 525 00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,960 conflict with Iran and we have certain threats, a heightened 526 00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:29,079 threat environment here in the homeland. You want to make 527 00:30:29,119 --> 00:30:31,559 sure that you have all of your DHS employees, including 528 00:30:31,599 --> 00:30:35,599 airport workers, airport screeners, but others as well, fully focused 529 00:30:35,599 --> 00:30:37,839 on the job at hand in protecting the American public. 530 00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:42,000 So as this as the shutdown continues to drag on. Unfortunately, 531 00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:45,400 for TSA and for the airport, you're likely going to 532 00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:48,759 see continued lines, particularly as we get into the heart 533 00:30:48,799 --> 00:30:50,400 of spring break here in March. 534 00:30:51,119 --> 00:30:53,200 Speaker 1: Well, as I mentioned at the beginning of the podcast, 535 00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:56,559 today I talked to a lady in Houston. Houston Hobby 536 00:30:56,599 --> 00:30:59,680 Airport was the one that got all the bad publicity. 537 00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:04,680 Yesd today five hour lines to go through TSA. Apparently 538 00:31:04,759 --> 00:31:09,759 they've done a much better job of getting people from 539 00:31:09,839 --> 00:31:13,519 other airports to come in and staff the TSA in Houston. 540 00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:15,960 Speaker 11: Well, when it comes to TSA, they have a lot 541 00:31:16,079 --> 00:31:19,559 of I mean, they think about this scenario and so 542 00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,240 what they're trying to do now is obviously get these 543 00:31:22,279 --> 00:31:26,960 shift covered by other transportation security officers pulled from other 544 00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:31,200 airports that aren't having these lines and this impact. But 545 00:31:31,279 --> 00:31:33,920 you can only do that so much, right, every airport 546 00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:37,920 needs the complement of security screeners that they have to 547 00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:41,759 do their job, so you can patch the issue, but 548 00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:45,359 only so long, and then it becomes a real concern. 549 00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:45,640 Speaker 2: Now. 550 00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:49,480 Speaker 11: I don't think security is going to be sacrificed. Unfortunately, 551 00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:52,519 what will be sacrificed will be traveler convenient. So the 552 00:31:52,559 --> 00:31:56,359 lines that maybe took ten minutes fifteen minutes will now 553 00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:59,160 take an hour an hour and a half because TSA 554 00:31:59,359 --> 00:32:02,400 can't compromise the security there at that checkpoint. 555 00:32:02,799 --> 00:32:05,400 Speaker 2: So when all of a sudden done today, how was 556 00:32:05,599 --> 00:32:07,440 the market. Let's look at the Dow. 557 00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:13,319 Speaker 1: Uh it was at ten o'clock this morning, half an 558 00:32:13,359 --> 00:32:16,839 hour into the treading session, it was down two hundred 559 00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:20,279 and sixty nine points. Then at one thirty in the 560 00:32:20,319 --> 00:32:24,200 afternoon it was up seven hundred and forty eight so 561 00:32:24,279 --> 00:32:27,839 that's almost a thousand point swing. And when all was 562 00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:31,240 said and done, it finished down thirty four points. The 563 00:32:31,279 --> 00:32:37,559 Dow at forty seven thousand and seven six, SMP down fourteen. 564 00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:41,000 The Nasdaq when all was said and done, was up 565 00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:42,160 one point. 566 00:32:42,559 --> 00:32:42,920 Speaker 2: That's it. 567 00:32:43,519 --> 00:32:46,279 Speaker 1: Price of gold up ninety eight dollars to five thousand 568 00:32:46,319 --> 00:32:52,720 and two oh two. And that dastardly oil price, when 569 00:32:52,799 --> 00:32:56,240 down eight dollars today, finished at eighty six dollars. That 570 00:32:56,319 --> 00:32:59,640 sounds much better, doesn't it. But remember we were trading 571 00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:04,279 in the high fifties, low sixties, so eighty six still 572 00:33:04,359 --> 00:33:07,440 is very very high from where we were prior to 573 00:33:07,519 --> 00:33:11,519 the hostilities breaking out in Iran. So that's it for today. 574 00:33:11,559 --> 00:33:14,000 Thank you for coming by. We will be back again 575 00:33:14,039 --> 00:33:16,079 tomorrow and we hope to see you then.