Speaker 1: Happy Saturday morning. We got college football kicking off here
in an hour. I am Kelly Stewart. You guys know
me is Kelly in Vegas, and this is Wager Talk's
Last Call. We've got a star studded lineup for you today,
starting with our good friend Art to Caesar over there
at the Westgate Super Book, Yanni the Greek, you guys
know him from Last Call every single week with me
on Battle and of course wager Talk. Today in his
infamous steam room, we've got Ross Benjamin, who has been
red hot over the last two months. I'll let him
break down all of that, including his five percent college
football best bets. And Steve Merrill. You guys know he's
the most watched guy here at wager Talk. He puts
out great content of course, gives you guys all those winners,
with all of the data with his ten thousand simulations
that he runs every single day. We're gonna get right
into it. Art to Caesar live from John Murray's old office. Art,
is this your office now or are they just kindly
letting you use it? Over there at the Westgate.
Speaker 2: They're kindly letting me use it.
Speaker 3: I don't think anyone can step into the former office
of mister Murray.
Speaker 1: What about the new office. I see he finally got
some stuff. Hung, I'm proud of him. He's finally moving
in there.
Speaker 3: At home, he's finally moving in. He's got a couch,
he's got all sorts of nice things, but he doesn't
trust us.
Speaker 2: He locks the door.
Speaker 4: Wow.
Speaker 1: So basically the opposite of Jay Cornegay, where it was
an open door policy and you're welcome to just walk in.
What a you know what. We'll see John Murray tomorrow
here on Last Call, because I'm feeling in Verial Epstein,
and we'll be sure to give him all the grief
art every single Saturday, I ask you to run through
the slate, tell us what you guys are seeing behind
the counter and what information you have to give to
our betters up to the date.
Speaker 4: Last minute here before kickoff.
Speaker 2: Let's start with the early stuff. North Texas had. Army.
Speaker 3: North Texas was as low as kind of one and
a half two on that game. We've moved to now
three on the game, but it's still a small need
for us on North Texas. There has been army money,
but that's not a huge need either way. But it
was interesting with some of the line movement there SMU
TCU that's kind of bounced back and forth. We now
have TCU minus six and a half. SMU will be
a small need for us in the game. Hometown Flavored
UNLV goes to Miami of Ohio. UNLV is a small
road dog minus two. They took Miami of Ohio at
two and a half and some money. Line Sprinkle will
need the Hometown Rebels to win the game for us.
Speaker 2: This is a big early need.
Speaker 3: Wisconsin at home is up to ten, came back down
to nine and a half this morning, but all week Kelly,
they late seven, they laid eight, they laid eight and
a half. So Maryland's going to be a really nice
need for us early in the morning and then maybe
the game of the day. It's very underrated and it
kicks off super early in the Big twelve. Texas Tech
at Utah. We're now three and a half on Utah.
We've seen more Texas Tech money than Utah, but we're
kind of booking to that side, so we're not afraid
to take some Texas Tech money. We will need Utah
in the game. We were one of the first to
go to three and a half.
Speaker 1: Wow, the Maryland game is gonna be interesting. It looks
like the Maryland quarterback, or excuse me, the Wisconsin game.
Speaker 4: The Wisconsin quarterback is going to be a go.
Speaker 1: That is the double digit underdog in my money line
parlay there at the West Gate. By the way, I
looked on hard Rock this morning. If you bet my
parlay today anywhere else, it's like thirty to one. Still
forty to one. They're at the super book. They do
me a solid. They put it up early. Barring anything catastrophic,
it is gonna stay forty to one here up until kickoff.
Speaker 4: So thank you guys for that.
Speaker 1: Always love giving my followers a little extra coin in
their pocket. Art. I think that this slate today is
kind of a little iffy, right. There's there's some okay games,
there's some snooze fest games. I think the noon slate
is rather intriguing. I'm not knowing what I'm gonna do.
I'm gonna have my head on a swivel. But for
these afternoon games, we call them three thirty eastern here
twelve thirty out there on the West coast. Which ones
have caught your eye as a perspective, and then which ones.
Are you guys gonna need there at the West Gate.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this is probably your best block of games.
And obviously you got two major ones. You got Auburn
out of Oklahoma. Oklahoma right now six and a half.
We were seven at one point. This has seemed pretty
good two way action. The Michigan Nebraska game very interesting
game of the year for US. We had Michigan three,
we reopened two and a half. We saw nothing but
really Nebraska money. We got to pick at one point.
They bought back on Michigan at pick. We're now Michigan
minus one. We will need Michigan in that game, you
would ce at UCF. That's seen really good two way action.
Six and a half, seven, seven and a half, kind
of bouncing all over the board. A need for US
is gonna be Western Michigan. They're at home Toledo. They
bought at thirteen and thirteen and a half. That's now fourteen.
Speaker 2: Well, also need Buffalo at home Buffalo Detroit.
Speaker 3: They took it seven, they took it six, So we're
now sitting Buffalo minus five on that game. But I
would say in all these early games, the first two slates,
Michigan's our biggest need. I mean, Michigan is an enormous
need for US. So goblo very very interesting there.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about this night slate and they
get you back behind the counter because I know it
is a very busy Saturday morning there in Las Vegas.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean some intriguing games as well. Obviously UF
at Miami, you're gonna be Miami seven and a half
right now.
Speaker 2: We were as high as nine.
Speaker 3: On that game, so there was some nibbles on Florida
at nine at eight, so that's but you know, still
pretty good two way because Miami is gonna be in
a lot of teasers, They're gonna be in a lot
of money lines. Illinois at Indiana, this is fascinating game
of the year for US. Indiana we had four, it's
now six and a half, and then even went to
seven this morning. So Illinois will be a need for
US for flooded with Indiana money. Arizona State goes to Baylor.
Baylor now two and a half. They took three with
Arizona State will need Baylor in that game.
Speaker 2: Also a weird one.
Speaker 3: This is kind of a low key under the radar
game because no one's gonna care about it, but we
will because it's in neat Arkansas State at Kanisas State.
They took Kanasas State at six and five and a half.
We're now Arkansas State four and a half as a
road favorite. We will need Arkansas State in the game.
Speaker 1: Very very interesting one. I love those low key ones.
Last week was Delaware, this week Arkansas State. Are real
quick because the questions in the well the comment section
is kind of going a little nuts here, and I'll
get to some of the questions here. But one of
the games that is so frustrating to me is Florida Miami. Right,
we saw seven and a half, we saw nine and
a half back to seven and a half. Of course
I was high on Florida to start the season. Of course,
Florida through five interceptions last week and still had a
chance to cover versus LSU. What are you guys seeing
on this game? This is this game was what four
in the Game of the Year slate four and a half?
Maybe because I remember my dad had me look at it.
He has a straight up bet with the Miami or
excuse me a Florida fan. He took Miami pick him,
so I think he's sitting kind of pretty. But this
is like one of those types of games where I
want to take Florida. I feel like I was correct
about this Gators defense, but the offense has been so abysmal.
I cannot trust them. What are you guys seeing there
at the Westgate?
Speaker 3: Well, listen, if they're gonna have one hundred yards of
penalties in five turnovers, they're not being a high school team.
It just doesn't matter. But I do think there's still
value in Florida. I like them today over a touchdown,
I really do. I think I played in.
Speaker 1: The West eight College Contest because I was like, I
gotta have some sort of action on this team. But
they don't deserve my money.
Speaker 2: No, for sure, I get that, and that's, you know,
a great way to do it.
Speaker 3: You put them in the college contest so you could
just kind of forget about it.
Speaker 2: But I'm not really sold on Miami. Listen.
Speaker 3: I know they got a lot of guys that was
not a Beck fan, even when he was at Georgia.
But you know, like I said, Florida's gonna turn the
ball over five times. They're not beating anyone.
Speaker 2: But it's funny.
Speaker 3: Despite the early Florida money Like I said, we did
get Miami money back, so that's been pretty good.
Speaker 2: Two way.
Speaker 3: Miami is gonna be very popular in moneyline parlays because
nobody really trusts Florida.
Speaker 1: Yep, you just took the last question. Before I get
you out of here. Everybody always wants to know what
are the biggest money line parlays. I could probably guess
it's gonna be Wisconsin. It's gonna be TCU, it's gonna
be UCF, it's gonna be Oklahoma, it's gonna be Miami.
Into the Night's late.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you can throw Indiana in there because of
obviously the big line movie you've seen, you know, from
four all the way up to seven.
Speaker 2: So Indiana is gonna be very popular in that regard
as well.
Speaker 4: All Right, anything you would like to leave us with
before we get you out of here.
Speaker 2: No, I think that's good.
Speaker 5: You know.
Speaker 2: The one thing I will mention.
Speaker 3: There's a Hawaii late night game, Super late Night, you know,
the old Vegas nine PM kickoff. They laid two and
a half with Fresno. It's up to three, but this
has almost been two groups battling, laying Fresno at two
and a half, taking Hawaii at three. So that's a
really good handle game for us late night.
Speaker 2: I just wanted to mention.
Speaker 1: That awesome stuff Art this Caesar Westgates book at art
Dice twenty one.
Speaker 4: They're on X and you can also catch him.
Speaker 1: On the Best Betting Show Ever with Prez and Joe Ranieri.
Art give us a little look as to what that
show is all about.
Speaker 3: Well, it's me and Joe battling pres and trying to
keep our sanity, but you know, it's a lot of fun.
Speaker 2: We give out a parlay of the day.
Speaker 3: I always give a book report, just kind of basically
throughout the week, give you as many NFL and college
games as I can, seeing all the movement as we
get through. And then even you know, if I give
you something on Tuesday, try to check back on Friday
and say, hey, has this stood? Have they you know,
bought back on the other side, or are we seeing
even another group Beth, the sides are trying to give
you as much information as I can.
Speaker 1: You guys can check that show out every single Tuesday.
Starting as Art mentioned, they're on the Wager Talking YouTube
channel or I lied, you're not getting out of here yet.
Speaker 4: I need a best bet from you.
Speaker 2: I'm taking Florida.
Speaker 5: I don't care.
Speaker 3: I'm taking them plus seven and a half. If they're
doing hey, listen, if throws five interceptions, I'll never look
at Florida again. I think they are worth a I'm
not saying sprinkle on the money line, but I think
they're gonna keep it within seven.
Speaker 4: Okay, I I fine fine.
Speaker 1: Art Art has spoken you guys. Art is the best.
He's gonna try to join us every single Saturday morning
here during college football season, borring you know, all the
kids calling out sick and he has to go run
the risk room by himself. He is the best. Again,
Art Dice twenty one. Give him a follow on X.
All right, guys, we're gonna bring in VR. We're gonna
get him rocking and rolling. We're about ten minutes into
the show and we're gonna take you guys up until kickoff.
As long as you guys are in the comment section
asking questions, VR welcome in. You guys know VR. We
do a college football edition of bet on It every
single Wednesday. You can also catch him on the NFL
edition with me, and then he will be back here
tomorrow with me. I'll be filling in for aero ops team.
We're gonna go through the NFL slate. Johnny wants to
know how big the overlay in my contest is. Really quickly, guys.
Splash sports dot Com backslash Kelly in Vegas. I started
the season off so bad in college football that I said,
I just want to refresh. We're starting week four. We've
already got week five up as well. It's ten thousand
dollars guaranteed every single week, twenty five dollars to enter
Splash sports dot Com backslash kelleing Vegas. You guys have
about forty eight minutes left to sign up.
Speaker 6: VR.
Speaker 1: Welcome in. I know you're going to do a weekly
steam room here on the Wager Talking YouTube channel before
we get into the college football slate. Can you let
everybody know what day you're do in the steam room
and where they can find you.
Speaker 7: Yeah, for the regular season during football, we're doing it
on Sunday. Now, if it comes like a busy time
that I want to add a Saturday to it, we
might during the regular season at a Saturday and Sunday
if it's busy enough and there's things to cover. But
every Sunday we go in an hour plus leading into
the early kickoffs. We go through every single NFL game
and I share side total player props, information that I have,
anything from the back end that I have. I'm there
to answer all the questions.
Speaker 6: But more importantly, we go over a year to date results,
recent results, and.
Speaker 7: The goal as we're heading towards the last quarter in
twenty twenty five. So make sure you join us for
a steamer room. If you got a month or better,
you'll be in there and you want to join.
Speaker 6: Us for sure.
Speaker 7: It helps a lot, like it helps you learn how
to use the information, because again, if you're not using
it correctly, what good is it.
Speaker 6: I'm crushing college.
Speaker 7: Football right now, Like if you're betting college football, you
want to see our stuff. I'm getting the sharpest college
football stuff.
Speaker 6: Right now and NFL.
Speaker 7: But if you're not using it correctly and not bet
sizing correctly, it's not going to matter.
Speaker 6: So all I'm here that on that, but I want
to see you guys.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely. The first question is from Andrew, he must
watch the college football edition to bet on it. You
gave out a under fifty five and a half Louisiana
Lafayette Eastern Michigan. Are you still high on that? Excuse me?
You gave it? I think fifty two and a half,
fifty one and a half. I'd have to look at
bet fifty and a half. What is the We always
like to tell people at wagers, Tuctor, we have parameters,
right line moves too much. All right, it's no longer
a bet. Is it still a bet at fifty and
a half?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 7: Yeah, up the fifty, up the fifties at three percent bet,
it's it's not a huge, huge bet it was. You know,
it's early in the week when we do the show Wednesday,
I kind of finalized. By Tuesday night, I'm on the play.
There's been no buy back or anything like that. So yeah,
we're definitely still under in Louisiana and the Eastern Michigan game.
Speaker 6: It's it's one of the many totals that we're firing
on today.
Speaker 7: But yes, we're still far. We're still kept that bet.
No buy back or anything like that. And it was
a three percent for subscribers.
Speaker 1: Perfect. All right, let's get into these noon slate games,
obviously Texas Tech Utah.
Speaker 4: Being the biggest.
Speaker 1: What are you guys seeing there? It's art said that
they're going to need Utah. I know you were waiting
in the wings. You probably heard some of the things
he said. I think that's very interesting. I do, unfortunately,
think Texas Tech is somewhat of a square dog. You
and I talked about this Texas Tech team. I thought
at twelve to one, they were a nice outside shot
to win the Big twelve. Do you think this is
a Big twelve preview championship preview? Excuse me?
Speaker 6: Yeah, and it really looks like it.
Speaker 7: It does, and I think that's why you're not seeing
much action from the bettings in togeins once that line
did kind of settle. It looks like a sharp number.
I'm seeing good two way action in the back end.
Like one book's heavy. You told the other books heavy
Texas Tech. So it's kind of depends on that. I
guess who they're booking from. But it looks like balanced
two way action there. What we got down on is
a team total. We bet Texas Tech under twenty seven
at even money. I sent that out to subscribers as
a three percent play good to minus one ten. We
took Texas Tech under twenty seven for the team total,
and yeah, that came in kind of before I jumped on,
so that should be a valuable Okay, perfect, All.
Speaker 1: Right, let's let's go through the rest of your list.
I know you've got a busy morning here ahead of you.
We got about forty five minutes until kickoff. So if
you guys have a question for VR, specifically drop it
in the chat. Otherwise we'll wait and let Ross and
Steve get to some of those other questions. Let's have
you just do what you do best and let the
dog off the leash, let the guy run.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I got a ton for you. Forgive me. There's
just so much going on.
Speaker 7: Here's what I'm gonna do my package that I help
up at Wage of Talk for daily guys.
Speaker 6: What I'm doing because we have volume is I'm only.
Speaker 7: Firing four percent plays, so only best bets are going
into that package. That's why I think there's only seven
or eight bets in there, because there are only the
four percents are going in there for daily guys. Subscribers
are getting everything the guys that are with me partnering
up for the college football season or you know, long term,
because we've got a lot of good three percent plays,
especially some added board. Let me give you those added
board real quickly, because they've done so well. I think
last week we might have lost one or two and
fire twelve to fifteen of them. We bet three h
nine oh five to Oho LSU minus thirty five and
minus thirty six. We also bet Ohio minus thirty and
thirty one. We bet Northern Alabama plus eighteen and seventeen
and a half. We went over fifty three to fifty
five in that Ohio Gardner Web game and went under
forty seven in New Hampshire Gartmouth. Now some of the
other stuff for today, you already know the Louisiana under.
Here's some more three percents for you, Western Michigan three
fifty six, Western Michigan three thirty six forgiving Western Michigan
plus fourteen and a half and under fifty one and
a half. So it's Western Michigan and the under Troy Buffalo.
We went over forty two and a half. That's a
three percent play. Oklahoma and Auburn. We went under twenty
three and a half first half, under twenty three and
a half first half. You also know that I had
Oklahoma in that game at minus six and a half
from bet on it Oregon Oregon State.
Speaker 6: Over fifty five. That was a RAS play.
Speaker 7: Baylor Arizona State are over fifty nine and a half
and sixty Michigan Michigan minus one one and a half
and money line Hawaii plus three and a half, Nevada
plus ten.
Speaker 6: And a half Indiana.
Speaker 7: Talking about Indiana, we bet that Indiana game early and
then we came back and bet the money line on
Indiana as well against Illinois Duke duke money line against
NC State.
Speaker 6: And as you know, I like Florida as well.
Speaker 7: I'm with you on Florida cal I've seen two a
action from betting syndicates. I saw minus seven and a
half in an account and I saw plus nine in
an account as well, So good two a action there
from the betting syndicates. But I'm on the Florida side
with you. I think they're undervalued and I think Miami's overvalued.
It's that time of the year we could really take
advantage of it. I looked up at the rankings this morning.
I can't believe the ll us use the top five
team Alabama would be a double digit favored.
Speaker 6: Over them on a neutral field.
Speaker 7: I'm telling you that right now now, maybe that's the
line the books would put out because obviously they need
to manage their risk. But a true line Alabama would
be a double digit favorite, a one in one Alabama
team over that LSU team.
Speaker 6: And I like LSU.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you were high on them to start the year.
Speaker 6: At top twenty kel barely Wow.
Speaker 1: All right, well that was a lot of stuff. I
hope you guys got your list written down. I've already
got people texting me, what's the great godom like?
Speaker 5: Everybody?
Speaker 1: Relax.
Speaker 4: You can also just take your own notes early.
Speaker 7: I'll give you an early nine am kickoff because they're
like narrowed down.
Speaker 1: How they narrow it is down.
Speaker 6: But here's what really sticks.
Speaker 5: Out to me.
Speaker 6: The under an SMU TCU. I really like that on there.
Speaker 7: I thought they opened it too high. I circled that already.
I saw one of the groups I respect most on
totals came in on the under. And what I liked
about it was today any Roague book that had a
sixty five out there, they took it.
Speaker 6: So they're still looking to get more money on that
on there.
Speaker 7: I love when I see that on game day, Okay,
sixty five, it's you know, there's not out there. But
because of the public money going over, they're popping up.
When they pop up, be someone, there's the I love
when I see that.
Speaker 4: That's great stuff.
Speaker 1: All right, VR, we got about ninety seconds left with
you before we get you out of here. The comment
section wants to know what is your end of the
year price prediction for bitcoin?
Speaker 7: Oh oh, and here's what's tough. I think we may
see an uh. It's wanging between the price. So I
don't think we're gonna bust one twenty. What I do
think is it's gonna drop a lot. I know everybody
wants to the moon, but I've been in crypto for
long enough to know we're probably gonna see eighty thousand again.
It's definitely dropping below one hundred thousand again in twenty two.
There's bad times ahead. There's gonna be tough times ahead.
Speaker 1: And it means it means it's on sale. It means
it's on sale and we can buy more.
Speaker 7: Yeah, exactly, exactly, just wait, wait for pullbacks and buy.
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm gonna add one more.
Speaker 4: I know this is a sports betting show, but this
is the same kind of thing.
Speaker 1: Okay, So at what point do I take my profit
and put it off into something else like USD or whatever.
Speaker 4: Or are you just keeping it all invested in, just
letting it just keep riding.
Speaker 6: You shouldn't have held on it.
Speaker 7: You shouldn't have more than ten percent, and that's because
you're young. But you shouldn't have more than ten percent
of your wealth in bitcoin. If you've made money, cash
that out and start reallocating in the different things. You
don't need more than ten percent of your wealth in that.
There's still speculative asset. It's made a lot of money
for a lot of people, myself included in you. But
still you gotta think big picture and ten percent is
more than enough if you're holding.
Speaker 1: Awesome stuff at Greek Underscore, Gambler, UFC, Bitcoin, College Football, NFL,
help you back with us tomorrow here on last Call
as well as in the steam room. You guys can
catch him there tomorrow right after last call, and you
can also catch me joining on End Zone Live with
the Press and Andy. It's gonna be fun to be
sweating out those early games with those guys.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna be cheering for chaos and you guys, buckle up.
Speaker 1: We're gonna bring in Ross Benjamin here next. He's gonna
take all of your college football questions. Ross has been
absolutely on fire. Basically, I don't know. Ross. Was it
mid July you caught lightning in a bottle? I mean,
I think you gave up fifty was it fifty three
free baseball winners? And it was something insane?
Speaker 8: It was.
Speaker 5: It was an insane streak of like seventy one and
twenty and free picks. Yeah, but as far as the
premium picks color, it's uh, since May the thirteenth, I've
been on fire over one hundred I believe right now,
one hundred and eight units in that profit since maybe
May the thirteenth, So I love it.
Speaker 1: In sports, you're currently three and oh and your five
percent college football? Are you giving out one five percent
a week?
Speaker 8: Or is it?
Speaker 5: Yeah? One five percent a week? And uh, you know
we get limited how many five percent best bet we
could use at the site, which is right okay because
some guys would abuse it, and uh, but you know,
we'll see if I hit this one, I'm going to
be on my hands and knees asking Johnny and Ralph
to up the anty a.
Speaker 2: Little bit right.
Speaker 1: LSU Week one outright winner at Clemson Oklahoma over Michigan.
There in week two you laid the six and then
Tennessee plus four and a half. Great number didn't matter though,
even at three and a half you got the cover
with Tennessee. So you are three and oh there, Ross.
We're gonna get into some of these college football questions.
I'm gonna start off with one that I saw because
it pertains to me. One of the guys said, Hey,
how are my garbage Badgers laying ten to Maryland. I
asked myself the same question, and I went through and
I thought, Malik Washington has the ability to go in
and exploit this Badgers defense. Do you have an opinion
on that game?
Speaker 9: I don't have a strong opinion.
Speaker 5: I will say this, buyer beware with Maryland because they
fall in the same category as Rutgers, you know, teams
that they really prey on a soft early season schedule.
Then once they get into the Big ten, they struggle.
Mike Loxley I'm not a big fan of and also
Maryland not only the struggle once he get into Big ten,
they really struggle big ten away games. So I would
steer clear of that. I mean, if you're not sold
on to Badgers lay in ten. I could understand that,
because they really shouldn't be minus ten against anybody. But
to me, that's a little bit of a red flag
and I really have no faith in Mike Laxley and
Maryland on the road in big ten action.
Speaker 4: Well, that's not like what I like to hear.
Speaker 1: The other day, Ross was against me on I cannot
remember which game you put it in the wager Talk
slack for wager Talk today I wrote f and now and.
Speaker 6: ROSSI not know what that meant.
Speaker 1: I found it made me chuckle.
Speaker 4: It is what it is.
Speaker 1: I hate being against Ross. So let's go into some
of these earlier games as well. Ross one of the
games that I think is not being talked about all
that much. I mean, right now, we've got a big,
big conversation with Texas Tech TCU, cuse me, text like
Utah and asking you TCU.
Speaker 4: Those are the two bigger morning games. I get it.
But let's kind of dive a little deeper.
Speaker 1: Is there something else in this slate that kicks off
here in a little over thirty minutes that you think
that our audience needs to know about. Yeah, I would
look at.
Speaker 5: The Arkansas Memphis game, Kelly. You know, here's the thing.
Arkansas coming off that tough loss last week against Ole
Miss forty one to thirty five, and they got LSU
up next, and in between they have a road trip
against a non Power four conference school in Memphis.
Speaker 9: I mean, you shouldn't take Memphis.
Speaker 5: Lightly, but when you add it all up, it's a
danger spot for Arkansas, especially laying more than a touchdown
on the road. The last I check, you can get
seven and a half with Memphis. And don't forget, this
is a Memphis team that has aspirations of being a
Group of four representative in the College Football Playoff and
what better way to do that than with a win
over an SEC opponent. I think you could say to
a quality SEC opponent at this point in Arkansas, and
you know, if they were able to pull this off,
it also gives them a little bit of forgiveness if
they lose one game in conference. So yeah, I think
that that's a dangerous spot for Arkansas.
Speaker 9: And I think that Memphis.
Speaker 5: Has the ability to not really win this game, but
more importantly, to get inside this number.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Marco gave this out as his sandwich game on Wednesday.
I already had it on my long list. I did
play it in the contest there at the Westgate super
Book for College Football. I also played it on my
Splash contest. I haven't gotten to the window just yet.
I was really high on Arkansas going to ole Miss
last weekend. I said I thought that they had a
chance to win. Frustrating loss. I exactly, I see it
completely the scheduling spot. I just think Arkansas is a
little bit better than the last week. We'll see how
that ends up playing out if I actually get to
the window with that team or not. Another game I
want to talk about selfishly while we're waiting on some
of the comments to populate. Hey, let's talk about it. UCF,
you n C. We've got Bill Belichick versus Scott Frost.
Do you have an opinion on one side or another here?
Speaker 9: I don't.
Speaker 5: Again, another one of those games, I don't have a
strong opinion, Kelly, but I would lean toward UCF. I mean,
let's not get caught up in a win over Richmond
and a win over Charlotte. Those are two terrible teams. UCF,
you know, supposed to be on the bottom half, if
not near the bottom of the Big twelve.
Speaker 9: This year.
Speaker 5: But Scott Frost has done awfully well since, you know,
at UCF prior to his stint at Nebraska where he flapped.
I would have a small lean here on UCF. Laying
the points at home.
Speaker 1: Not good news for me. Not good news for me.
I'm taking the points of Bill Belichick. I think that
I could see it.
Speaker 9: You know, I could see playing.
Speaker 4: Against TCU in two ways.
Speaker 1: One, I don't think there as good as advertise as
we saw as week one, so I'm taking SMU. And
then two, I also think North Carolina, some of those
teams you mentioned it, how Maryland goes in and they
beat up on those cupcakes. I actually think that that
is good for some of these middle of the road teams.
I think Bill Snyder perfected that those playing those Northern
Illinois schools or North Dakota or whatever. You beat up
on those cupcakes. It gives you a chance to work
out some of the kinks in your offense, defense, special
teams wherever you're having shortfalls. And it also gives your
team confidence to get some of those wins so that
when they do get into conference play, I don't know,
I'll get you.
Speaker 5: Don't know, whatever way you want to spin it if
it makes you feel better.
Speaker 1: I think that some of these teams do need those
need those confidence boosters. If you will, you know we
can't all have you know Alabama FSU week one and uh,
you know you can't play those teams each and every
single week. Okay, let's get into some of these questions, guys, Army.
This was a game that our de Caesar mentioned, this
North Texas Army game.
Speaker 4: He mentioned they were gonna need North Texas.
Speaker 1: This Army team beat up on my Kansas State Wildcats
held the possession in the second half for all but
three minutes, in like twelve seconds. It was crazy. Is
Army as good as advertised here? Or should we be
looking at North Texas?
Speaker 5: You know, every time you think you got things figured
out in college football, you don't. Because I even text
you and I says, if Kansas State doesn't wake up
in this spot against Army, they'll never wake up in
You were sort of skeptical, and you were right. And look,
Army loses their opening game at home to Tarleton State,
a FCS team. They go on the road and they
control the tempo as they like to do.
Speaker 9: But I'm still not sold.
Speaker 5: I think North Texas coming off a very impressive performance
against inferior opposition and of course last week, but it
tells me everything when Army opens up as a favorite
here and now North Texas is a favorite, and I
think rightfully.
Speaker 9: So I think what we saw with.
Speaker 5: Army against Kansas State and my estimation is more of
a fluke than a reality. And I think that North
Texas has too many offensive weapons for Army to control.
And again, if Army falls behind, which I believe they
will in this game, they're not built to come from behind.
The problem with the Kansas State game for the Wildcats
was they weren't in that position. Army was able to
continue to play with their identity and not have to
be in uncomfortable positions. I think they'll be in more
of an uncomfortable position against an explosive offensive team in
North Texas, and I have a lean toward North Texas.
Speaker 1: Col All right, we're on the same page. There a
couple questions some of these underlying games. I know I'm
just throwing you for a loop. Blame the comments section,
so I'll give you a minute to look if you
need to find your notes. Louisville was a team that
I was really high on this year. I thought, hey,
they have an outside chance to win the ACC. I
spring it a little bit of money there plus seven
point fifty. Talk to me about this Louisville team. Do
you have any thoughts on them long term versus Bowling Green.
Speaker 5: Well, I know that Teddy really like Louisville going into
the year when we did our college football preview show.
I'm not quite as high on Louisville as Teddy is.
I don't know how you feel about him against a
Bowling Green team that I believe. They're coming off a
win last week, right, Kelly, if I'm not mistaken, an
upset win?
Speaker 2: Was it?
Speaker 4: And it was an upset win?
Speaker 5: Yes? Yeah, in any event, I really you know, I
don't have a strong opinion one way or the other
end Louisville. They're a team that I want to see
when they get into more of what I like to
deem as the meat and potatoes against some quality opposition,
at least one quality opponent before I make any kind
of decision or strong opinion is to the long term
success or lack thereof for Louisville.
Speaker 1: That is fair. I think sometimes we do need teams
to be able to pass the eye test for us,
and there's just some that aren't. Here's a good one, Clemson, Syracuse.
Is Clemson actually going to show up today?
Speaker 2: That?
Speaker 1: I think we get asked that almost every single week.
Is Clemson going to show up? They didn't show up
in the second half there versus Troy A couple of
weeks ago, look Syracuse.
Speaker 4: I like fran Brown. I bet against him.
Speaker 1: I had Connecticut plus six and a half and that
was really painful to lose that in overtime. But Franz said,
you know what, unacceptable. You guys should have lost this game.
He knew they pulled one out of there, you know what,
And he said, you guys are running laps.
Speaker 4: You guys are running a drillage.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 9: After the game.
Speaker 1: I love to see it. I love to see it.
Speaker 4: I like brand Brown. I think he is a solid
football coach.
Speaker 1: And I can't say the same about Dabo Sweeney.
Speaker 4: I think the game may have passed him by.
Speaker 1: I know a couple of years ago he had those
thoughts that he wasn't gonna need anil, the Clemson brand
and so forth, We're going to be enough. Obviously, he's
had to change his tune there, But let's kind of
talk about this Clemson Syracuse game. Seventeen and a half
points has me looking towards a dog. Not going to
get to the window with them. I don't think.
Speaker 5: No, I'm not going to get to the window either.
And being close in proximity of Syracuse here in western
New York, we get a lot of Syracuse cover and
I could agree with you wholeheartedly. I love fran Brown.
I think what he's trying to do at Syracuse in
the direction he's headed is a good one. Now, can
they win this game? Possibly, but probably not. Okay, but
as far as the seventeen or seventeen and a half goes, look,
Steve Angeli's been a hell of a pickup Kelly. You know,
transfer quarterback from Notre Dame makes you wonder when you
look at Notre Dame and how they perform so far.
Speaker 9: And CJ.
Speaker 5: Carr, How the heck did they pick CJ. Carr over
Steve Angelly is beyond me. Steve Angeli is passed for
over a thousand yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions, and
Syracuse is pretty talented on the outside. The problem with
the Orange is their ability to stop people Now, Clemson
has not shown that they're an explosive offense, but I
think they're going to have some offensive success today against
a very vulnerable Syracuse defense in my opinion. But I
can see this. You know, Syracuse is Live, is a
big dog here. I think they get inside the number
and don't rule out the possibility with their offense that
they get back door to this game, you know, a
late touchdown to get inside the number as well. So
I would have the slightest the leans here towards Syracuse.
Speaker 9: And yeah, Kelly, I agree.
Speaker 5: You know, I just don't think it's not a matter
of well Clemson show up. They haven't proven to be
very that hype team. I'm not going to say they're
not a very good team, but they were getting a
lot of hype as a potential national champion before the
season started. Cade Klaubnick to me he was getting all
hype as a Heisman Trophy candidate. He's not shown me anything,
nor is the Clemson offense so far. So that's what
I got to say about that.
Speaker 1: Hey, I'm with you.
Speaker 4: I am with you.
Speaker 1: Just a few short weeks in here and we've already
got big, big comments, all right, A couple more questions,
and then we're gonna bring in Steve Merrill to take
us home. Bill wants to know what Ross thinks about
Michigan at Nebraska. Let me double check my notes just.
Speaker 4: Because I wanted to not get it wrong.
Speaker 1: Artis Cazar told me from the Westgate super Book this
morning that Michigan was gonna be their biggest need.
Speaker 4: They're inundated with Nebraska money. They saw to the open
game of the year.
Speaker 1: Three two and a half is what they opened this
week down to pick them back up to two and
a half. Russ, I you talk about Clemson, I'm gonna
talk about Nebraska. Nebraska hasn't been good since Tom Osborne retired.
I mean, I shouldn't say that they had a little
stretch there where they were all right, But the point
being is to Nebraska standards, this team can't seem to
get over that eight nine win hump. Is this the
year that they finally get it with Matt rule. I
think Matt Roull is an awesome coach. I love what
he brings to his programs, but that doesn't always quot
What he did at Baylor might not work in Lincoln, right,
So just hearing your thoughts here on Michigan. Are they
going to go in and beat up Nebraska there in Lincoln.
Speaker 9: I get the feeling you like Michigan in this game, so.
Speaker 5: Correct this game. I'm just okay. I was just my
intuition from working with you a couple of times.
Speaker 9: Now.
Speaker 5: Anyway, you know what they say about people with assumptions, Kelly,
and anyway, Michigan, I'm not crazy about the fact they're
going on the road with a true freshman quarterback, and
also the fact that in their one true road test
at Oklahoma, their offense failed miserably.
Speaker 9: Brad Underwood or excuse.
Speaker 5: Me, Brad Underwood, the kid from Underwood, this true freshman
quarterback from Michigan. Yeah, Bryce, Yeah, yeah, whatever at any event.
That's why I just try to beat numbers and not
on ESPN talking about names.
Speaker 9: Anyway.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I look, I think Nebraska's on the right track.
Getting off tangent here. So but to answer your question,
and I have a small lean toward Nebraska here, I
think that this is a statement game for them. They're
bringing in a brand name school in Michigan. Is I
don't think Michigan's that good as they've been in past years,
But This is Nebraska's opportunity at home and to make
a statement say hey, we're relevant again. And if they're
ever going to do so, this is their chance, because
if they fail miserably here, it's going to be talk
of the same old Nebraska over and over again.
Speaker 1: All right, Ross, before we get out of here, let
everybody know what you got over at wagertalk dot com.
Steve Merrill, I see him waiting in the wings. If
you guys have a question for Steve, drop it in
the chat.
Speaker 4: Ross, Red Hot Ross.
Speaker 1: I know ever really likes to call you Ross the Boss,
but I'm gonna call you Red Hot Ross instead.
Speaker 5: Okay, whatever you call me is fine with me, Kelly.
So yeah, four and oh last week in college football
ten and five to start the year, I sent you
the couple of streaks I have in college football going
back to last year. Now we're seventy and forty with
our last one hundred and ten college football premium picks.
I believe that's sixty four percent since twenty twenty three,
up over ninety six units in college football, which is
number one at wagertalk dot com in that category.
Speaker 9: So yeah.
Speaker 5: Major League Baseball continued as a role too, folks, Number
one in Major League Baseball as we speak, So a
lot of good stuff. Four big plays today. One goes
at noon Eastern time. My five percent best beat goes
tonight in the National TV Game two game at three thirty.
Take advantage, folks. We're on a really nice role. And
again forty nine dollars Weekend Warriors Special Folks, it's thirty
five dollars from my college football five percent best bet Today.
You're gonna get the rest of my college football You're
gonna get all of my NFL tomorrow, my Monday night
pick in the NFL. Take advantage of at forty nine
dollars my personal link WT dot buzz slash RBWT dot
buzz slash RB And don't forget to check out our
show on Thursdays, The Blitz with Brian Power, Ralph Michaels
and myself, as we highlight all the big games of
the week, and you'll get an early take from us
every Thursday live at one o'clock right Eastern time.
Speaker 9: Right here at wager Talk.
Speaker 1: TV YEP Waiters Talk TV wager Talk YouTube channel, you
can catch Ross, Brian Power and Ralph, Michael Sock and
all the College Football Great Show on the Blitz. If
you guys haven't caught that over there, you can also
listen to it on all of your podcast networks. Thank
you to Ross. We've got twenty one minutes until kickoff.
Weve got Steve Merril coming in to take us right
up until kickoff. As long as you guys have a question.
Good morning Steve Merrill.
Speaker 8: There we go. Got to get the w on the.
Speaker 2: Yes.
Speaker 1: I bought polos for all these guys and now Steve
Marrel is the only one that wears on him and
Adam trigger Steve.
Speaker 8: By the way, that the best part of the shirt
is the sleeve. Man. We got to do this on
the front next time.
Speaker 1: Okay, listen.
Speaker 4: I was just trying to mix it up.
Speaker 1: I know you guys are no.
Speaker 8: I love it. I'm just saying you don't see as
much on TV.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I had like golf polo in my brain.
You know, when guys are out there golfing, you know
you want to have branding.
Speaker 4: It is what it is.
Speaker 1: Let's get into some of these questions. Andrew had a
question about Missouri. Leonora Sellers is going to be playing
in this game, hopefully, because we would never wish injurypond anybody.
He gets to play for all four quarters, but Mike
Shula is going to do his best to keep that
guy upright against this Tigers front seven. See break down
this South Carolina Zouri game down to let's see odds
logic screen. What do you got, Steve on your own?
Speaker 8: Oh, I'm saying ten now, and I'm so glad. I'm
so glad you led with this game because I was
going to ask you to talk about it because look,
I love the comments the live chat, and I did
do a double video for this game and also one
of the other night games. Which one was it? Ever? Again,
I did so many games, but anyway, whatever the another
night game I did, Miami of Florida, did Nebraska Michigan game,
Miami of Florida, Florida game, this game. Also I think
I did one of the top twenty fives, mixed them
all together, so I'm confused. But anyway, Leonora's Sellers was
the key because I did the video on Thursday and
he was questionable, and right after I released it, he
was upgraded to probable. So I did want to give
everybody that update. He's expected to play and we kind
of knew that was coming because the line was eleven
up as high as thirteen, and then when I did
the video, it had already dropped from ten to nine
and a half and the total had risen three points
as well, so we kind of had a feeling. The
Betty markets thought the Nori Sellers was playing for South Carolina.
He left last week in the second quarter with a
head injury concussion, most likely against Vandy. It was ugly.
They lost thirty one to seven. They fell out of
the top twenty five. They were ranked eleventh last week.
They're not even ranked anymore. Missouri's moved up from twenty
fifth to twenty third. By the way, in the additional votes,
I think South Carolin was like third, so they'd be
like twenty eighth right now, so they have a chance
to play their way back in. I don't think it happens, Kelly.
My ten thousand game simulation favors Missouri by thirteen and
a half, So with Sellers in or out at ten,
there's value and I would have liked it either way
here or lee Missouri. The other reason I wanted to
talk about this real quick is in the video when
I said Leonora's Sellers. It made me think of Larry
Sellers from The Big Lebowski. Now you're old enough like
me to remember it's a great movie from the late nineties.
You got to watch it about five times to really
appreciate the brilliance. But Larry Sellers is the punk on
near the end and out Burger who they thought had
stolen all the money. So I asked people to put
their favorite Big Lebowski quotes. I was just checking them
about thirty minutes ago. There are some gems in there.
I'm gonna start running with this. So if you're watching
right now, in the live chatter on the replay, drop
your favorite Big Leabalt quotes. Anybody under thirty is not
going to get what we're talking about, which is a shame,
but man, there's some good lines in them. I was
cracking up reading the comments, Kelly, because as you know,
I read the comments and I do reply back.
Speaker 1: Steve does read all the comments. All right, So next question.
We've already talked about Maryland, but I will say Ross
didn have a big opinion here. Maryland is one of
my best bets this week. I think Malik Washington is
a really I think he's a star. I think he
has real star potential. Maybe the rest of the Maryland
team doesn't look that good, so they make him look
a lot better. And of course they played a bunch
of cupcakes, so you've got to kind of bring back
in some of those expectations. But I watched those Badgers
defense last week and they just got pummelted. Yes, I
understand it was by Alabama, but these.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna say this, these middle of the road teams,
my team.
Speaker 1: Included Kansas State, whatever that may be, are not getting
the best athletes that they used to get, and I
think Wisconsin under Luke Fickle is starting a downward trend.
Ten points was just too many points for me. I
think this defense could easily give up a late back
to recover, and I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think you're onto something about trying to identify
teams and really programs that are in that mold. And
I'll mention a couple others real quick when we look
at this game. A friend of mine, Dania Leewen's huge
Virginia Tech fan, goes to all the games and they
made T shirts last week to get the ad fires
a hashtag that was trending, and of course they lost
outright to Old Dominion. Pry is gone. It looks like
Virginia Tech's having some trouble, maybe catching up to this
in il portal. Another team I'll mention is Oklahoma State.
I did a video for that game against Tulsa the
other day. Last night on the Friday, I got it wrong.
I thought Oklahoma State was in a breakout spot. The
fact they lost outright as a two touchdown favorite is
not a good sign for Mike Gundy. I'm a man,
he might be unemployed pretty soon. He's been there like
twenty one years or nineteen years or something. Anyway, Virginia Tech,
Oklahoma State a couple of teams. I think they are
having trouble maybe in the modern era of college football.
And I bring that up because I agree with you.
Wisconsin is another one of those teams I'm kind of
keeping a close eye on for the same reason. With
that said, I do think this could be a bounce
back spot for them. I liked Alabama last week. I
gave it out in my free video that I did
for the Wisconsin Alabama game. They won by twenty four's
just under a three touchdown favorite. I'm not big on
Wisconsin as a dog because they can't play from behind.
They're not an explosive offensive team, but their rush defense
has been incredible. Even last week against Alabama, they held
them to just seventy two rushing yards. Maryland has not
run the ball well in any of the three games
this season. I think that'll be the difference in this
one is that Wisconsin will control the line of scrimmage
and went in doubt. I rely on my power ratings,
my ten thousand game simulation as Wisconsin winning by fourteen
on average. Not a game I'm involved in, but I
would actually lean Wisconsin just due to the line value
at ten or less. However, as we checked the Odds
Logic screen, this is now steamed up to ten and
a half across the board. It's lightened up like a
Christmas tree, so not much value left at this point.
Speaker 1: Not good for me, Not good for me. Okay, let's
take a look at a couple of these other questions.
Bill wants to know whether or not you like Tulane
plus the points at Old Miss. I had Tulane on
my very long list. I liked a lot of dogs
this week. I know every ready jokes every week that
I like a lot of dogs, but there was probably
twelve dogs on my list that I initially started out with.
This was one of them. I didn't think that they
could get the outright win. I bet Kentucky against Old Miss.
I bet Arkansas against Old Miss, both teams I thought
had an opportunity to win. I'm not sure Tulane has
an opportunity to win, so I left them off eleven
and a half points. Steve, what say you?
Speaker 8: So my simulation has Ole Miss by eleven and a
half to twelve, So I think this game is pretty
much spot on as far as that goes. I'm sorry,
my simulation has my eighteen and a half. The line
is eleven and a half for twelve, So I was
just say I think the light is off by about
a touchdown, and I'm not in a hurry to fade
Old Miss. This is a team I think that wants
to route teams whenever they can. I rate them as
a top ten offensive unit this year. Toulayne I rate
is a top thirty offense. Kelly and I think both
offenses are pretty good, so that the over could be
worth a look here if you want to stay away
from the side. I do like all As I said,
I think there's about a touchdown line value, but I
wouldn't disagree with an over sixty one. It's one of
the higher totals. But as Ralph Michaels likes to say
it and I say as well, the bigger totals normally
go over and that gets you also to maybe looking
at an old miss team totals. I check the Odds
Logic screen right now, we're seeing that around thirty five
and a half. I'll tell you what, Kelly, these team
totals in both the NFL and college they do such
a great job of putting that extra half point right
on key numbers that just kind of keeps you off them.
And obviously at thirty five and a half, you probably
got to get to thirty seven or thirty eight, So
lin O, miss leanover. But also though lin O, miss
team total over, would have liked to better those thirty
five or less.
Speaker 1: All right, let's got a couple more questions here before
we get out. Because I know what I'm doing. Why
I keep taking myself off the screen is because I'm
putting in some of these last minute bets, whether from
VR Steve ross Art, all right, here you go. Nobody
really has a big opinion here, Steven. I think that's
because the number has really gotten away from being able
to bet Indiana at this point. So the only spot
I could now look at would be Illinois. I said
earlier this week on bet on It, I said, hey, guys,
if you like this game and there's some stale numbers available,
maybe it's on your Splash contest, or whether you have
pick Them League with your buddies, or even in the
Vegas college contests, use it. Unfortunately I did not find
one of those. But at this point, is it Illinois
or pass?
Speaker 8: Yeah? I agree with you. There's not a lot of
line by now that hits seven. There are some six
and a halves out there still. And by the way,
my stimulation is Indiana by about nine points on average,
so I do lean towards the Hoosiers at seven or less. Definitely,
with like six and a half better, there's about a
four to five percent chance Indiana wins by exactly seven points.
It's a very key number. I did a breakdown in
this one in my Top twenty five video, which is
another one of those free videos here on the channel
and the one thing I point out in that is
that both these teams have played extremely weak opponents so far.
I do an updated schedule rank every week on my
Power Ratings, and I rate both of these teams have
played like bottom twenty schedules so far. They both have
looked impressive doing it. I did have a strong bet
I spent winner last week for my clients on Illinois
when they shut out Western Michigan. So I'm not against
the Aline. I think they're an explosive team. They're good
on both sides. But Indiana was even more impressive. What
was it seventy three nothing against Indiana State Larry Bird
and company, So both teams coming off blowout wins. I
prefer to have the home team here, but the line
is getting a little pricey. We'd only like it at
seven or less per first six and a half with
Indiana if you can still find it.
Speaker 1: All right, guys, if you're looking for a college ats contest,
then it has that game. Slash sports dot Com Backslash
Calling Vegas. You guys have twelve minutes to sign up,
and currently there is still a two thousand dollars overlay.
So next time Steve talks about Kansas West Virginia. I'm
gonna go in and get myself a couple more entries.
Andrew wantsn't know about the total, but I did play
twelve and a half with West Virginia. Here in a
lot of the contests, I did not get to the
window with them with my hard earned money.
Speaker 4: Steve, here's a real reality. I think West Virginia is
on the up swing right.
Speaker 1: Couldn't have been much worse there the last couple of seasons,
but rich Rod has this team moving in the right direction.
I had Ohio against them prior to the backyard brawl
last week.
Speaker 4: Everybody said Kelly got a better than the.
Speaker 1: Backyard brawl, and I ultimately said, okay, fine, I'm just
gonna cover my eyes. They got the nice win over Pittsburgh.
Thoughts on this one, I'm not sure that West Virginia's
defense is getting enough love.
Speaker 4: I think this could be a rough day for Jayden Daniels.
Jayleen Daniel excuse me?
Speaker 8: Yeah? Is that why he's not with the commit not
my Washington commanders tomorrow? Is he going back to college?
I don't know what the rules nowadays. Why can't you right?
You're getting paid either? Way, and he's got eligibility left.
I think he actually could. We've talked about this. Could
someone like Tom Brady. I don't know if Brady left early,
but could Tom Brady or Lebron James. Lebron James could
go back and get paid. We'll talk about that more
when the basketball comes around. With this, nil is a mess.
You missing mentioned Rich Rodriguez, and I mentioned teams like
Gundy with Oklahoma State, has it maybe passed him by.
So we'll keep it one on West Virginia. With that said,
I do like the Mountaineers in this game. My ten
thousand game simulation projects Kansas by only ten points on average,
so I do think there's some line value of plus
twelve twelve and a half with West Virginia. And the
other thing I'll point out about this game. While Kansas
is the better offensive team, I do rate West Virginia
as the better defensive squad in this game. And whenever
we get the better defensive team catching double digits, that
is something I take into account. So I like West
Virginia in this one. Not sure they can pull the
out right upset, but I do think they can keep
it within single digits.
Speaker 1: All right, Steve. Right now, let's talk about your best bets.
They have been on absolute fire. Guys, while Steve does that,
you got any last minute questions, We've got ten minutes
until kickoff, drop them here in the chat. Steve, College Football, NFL.
How's it been for you so far this season?
Speaker 8: Yeah? So, anybody any other games? Dropping real quick? Big
Lebowski quotes are always welcome. And if you haven't watched
the movie, Watch, You're gonna have to watch it five times.
But it's well worth it. It's so Funny's near the
in and out Burger on fifth Football last Saturday sixty
seven percent NFL sixty seven percent. And I was upset,
Kelly because instead of going four and too, we should
have gone six and oho. We had some bad breaks.
We had the Ravens in Week one on Sunday Night,
and we just had some miraculous non covers. We've had
a couple of games in which the team has shut
out their opponent are allowed six or lesson octov. I mean,
so it's been okay, but it really could be monstrous.
So I'm waiting for that breakout weekend. I think it
very well could be. Today is I've got three games
I like a lot in college football. I've already loaded
two advanced NFL plays for tomorrow, have more to come,
So check out my page Steve merriwager Talk dot com
and you can do the Weekend Warrior for forty nine,
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and then that last cut, my strongest remaining opinion goes
up to a bonus free play on my page every
day perdue. Notre Dame is up there right now for
the free play Saturday. Check it out Steve merrillwager Talk
dot com and get there quicker with shortcut WT dot
buzz slash SM.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the Apple Cup, because when
both these teams were in the PAC twelve, this was
a big deal and I love to bet the dog
in the Apple Cup. But now Washington State is one
of those middle of the road teams that is going
to suffer unless they get themselves into a Power five
conference very quickly here. But Washington does have Ohio State
next week. This is still an in state rival. I
would not say they were looking ahead. Current line on
the Odds Lodger screen twenty and a half fifty one
and a half Steve.
Speaker 8: Yeah, we'll see if it hits twenty and one a half.
Twenty one obviously another very key number, right, probably about
a four to five percent chance again that Washington wins
by exactly twenty one. What is it late November, we're
talking about the Apple Cup. This was so weird last
year when this happened. I think it was even earlier
last year. It was like the second week of September.
But you bring up a good point, and I was
going to say the same thing. This game probably means
a lot more to the Cougars now than it does
the Huskies. And then you've got that potential look ahead
spot as well. So it really comes down to is
their line value with Washington State. I think there is
actually my simulation, my ten thousand game stimulation as Washington
winning by about seventeen and a half on average, It's
under eighteen points on average, so we got to get
twenty one twenty and a half not good enough, but
at plus twenty one or more. I do think there's
some value here. And I thought also as you said,
I think there's an intrinsic edge maybe with the rival dog.
And this is something we do talk more about in November,
with the rivalries that teams that aren't going bowling, you
hit that big dog. They sometimes have something to play for.
Very unusual situation where we talk about it in September,
but I think it makes sense here. And Washington had
the bye last week, Ohio State next week. Just a
weird scheduling spot for the Huskies this early in the season.
Speaker 1: Very very good catch there. That was not a game
that was even on a list of mine. Steve Merril
at Steve Merrill on social media. You guys can watch
Steve on the Way to Talk YouTube channel. Well he's
our most watched guy on the Wager Talk YouTube channel.
If you guys check out those single game videos he does.
He does a fade the public segment. What else am
I missing? Steve?
Speaker 4: I know you join us here on last call wager
Talk today.
Speaker 8: Yeah. So the college football Top twenty five video is
up right now. We touched on some of those games
where there are three head to heads, and then, of course,
as you know, Kelly, I always go a little bit deeper.
Three bonus games that are just a bit outside from
the Top twenty five, so it's really a top forty video.
Six games for free, also five other college football games
for free and videos, and then the NFL. I think
we've got three of them up now. I'm gonna have
the Monday Night video up as well. Always do the
Sunday Night videos. Chiefs and Bills, by the way, Chiefs
and the Chiefs and Giants, the other blue team from
New York. That's how my mind works. I gave a
free player prop in that video. I don't really do
player props, a Patrick Mahomes prop that I like a lot,
and that's free in that video just went up this morning.
And then yes, I'm recording Fade the Public right after
this with Dan the Man Alexander, So that'll be up
in a few hours hopefully. All you got to do
is click subscribe here on wager Time TV and click
the bill. You get an instant alert when you click
that bill. You never miss out on the free videos.
And if you're liking them, thumbs up, like and comment
blow because we do truly read the comments and reply
back here. I'll wait you talk TV.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, thank you guys for hanging out with us here
on this beautiful Saturday morning. We got less than five
minutes of kickoff, so I gotta get out of here
because I got to get up some of these last
minute bets people are asking in the comment section. Yeah,
I want to take that under an SMU TCU Kelly
from a mathematical ev perspective, view five or six Survivor picks,
how many would you put on Seattle tomorrow? That's a
very good question. I like the Saints a lot. That
we were my best bet this week on bet on It.
There is a reason why I did not play the
Saints in any of my Survivor excuse me, the Seahawks
and any of my Survivor picks. I like the Saints
a lot. If you want to diversify, I think I
would probably do one at the most to Seattle. I
know a lot of people are doing to Seattle. Two
bucks and already had done two bills. Best of luck
for you guys. I will be cheering for chaos. Thank
you to the almost four thousand of you hanging out
with us here. We will see you guys tomorrow, same time,
same place. Good luck on all your college football bets today,