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Speaker 1: I want to welcome everyone back to the pe Kenana show.

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We got a good one today, Thomas. Let's talk about

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well finishing up the Cold War series. You know, they

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jump right into the conflict in the Gulf. So you

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wanted to talk about the Gulf War what some people

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call Gulf War one? Uh, number one? And yeah, So

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why is this such a compelling topic to you?

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Speaker 2: It was a few things I want to cover two

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that are related. Out of the gate. One of the

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guys on my timeline, he posed a question, he asked

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me because I mentioned that there's an essay that's very

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hard to find for some reason. It was it was

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it was Yaki's in the year two thousand essay. Where

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I mean I I I advise people to take note that,

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you know, Yaki was suggesting that the Soviet Union would

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not exist at the turn of the millennium, like as

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constituted in nineteen fifty. And this this dude who follows

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to say it lea. He's like, did yack you have

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a did he render like a similar diagnosis to the

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United States, like, you know, colloquially speaking, And I told

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him no, because generally the kind of thing is a

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fool's errand you know he's like, no, I understand that

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that's not like a dumb question at all, Like it's

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in short form, don't like it as it's impossible, can

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they tone, I wasn't being flipping about that at all.

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It's a good question. But the reason why, I mean,

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Yaqui definitely in absolute terms would not have viewed and

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did not view the American system as long for this earth.

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But there's something peculiar about communism. I mean, there's all

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kinds of peculiar things about it, but it was more

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contrivance than other ideological experiments, like obviously arguably it was

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the only true sort of top down is sociopolitical experiment

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at scale that uh there really is, I think not

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not uh pressing for it, the Soviet Union, not just

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because the peculiarities of you know, the epoch you know,

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the the nineteenth century into the into the twentieth century,

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it but also just the process that the process of

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of of of dialectic itself, you know conceptually and philosophically

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as well as in you know, concrete material developmental terms.

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There's processes that must be left to develop spontaneously in

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order in order for any in any in order for

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any political structure at scale to to stand itself. Okay,

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Like what do I mean by that? What really killed

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the Soviet Union in terms of its internal constitution was

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the information age. Okay. If you abolish the price mechanism

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as a sort of the signaling variable as it were

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for for uh, you know, developed for for for for

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innovation and development, you're you're essentially always reverse engineering whatever

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your whatever your adversaries are able to construct and innovate

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and develop. You know, Like why is that? Well? I mean,

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think about it like this, if I if we corralled,

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if we created some think tank of say like you know,

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Elon Musk and uh and you know a handful of

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uh you know, like uh like top finance, some players

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you know, like Goldman Sachs types, you know, and then

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and then you threw some uh you know, you know,

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you throw some like applying engineering uh prodigies or applied

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engineering prodigies into that you a hypothetical group from like

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m I T. You know, would uh and you just

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told them okay, like think of dynamic ideas, you know,

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would they eventually where they eventually innovate kind of like

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the next big like telecom breakthrough or like the next

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or the next kind of generation, uh, you know, like

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electric car. I mean, I that's not the way things work.

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Some variant of that was done vis a vis the

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Apollo program, and in military matters that is the way

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things are done, because you're the data set you're operating

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from is the capabilities of the other side, the probable exigencies,

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you know, things relating to the theater that you're likely

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to fight in, and you know what capability is going

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to lend themselves to, you know, waging. We're in that theater.

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But I mean basically you're you're, you're you know, your

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your your data set is actual is actual combat, which

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generally in some capacities underway and low intensity you know,

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kind of on every continent, you know, perpetually. But in

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terms of like major wars, you know, basically once you're

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at war, I mean, that's kind of your laboratory, okay,

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as it were, And that can't be over emphasized as

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the fundamental weakness of the planned economy. You know, in

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the Soviet Union, did innovate a computer in the Eisenhower

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Cruise I eff era that was advanced as anything in

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the UK and America. But you know, thirty years later

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there was a grand total of less than five thousand

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computers in the Soviet Union. Like why they didn't know how,

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they didn't know what function it was best suited. Do

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you know? They had some sense in basic terms that

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this is fundamental to command and control. But you know,

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you can't just you can't just predict like some kind

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of augur you know, what role like new revolutionary new

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technology is going to be best applied to in in

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in absolute terms, you know, for whatever purpose you know

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it uh now extrapolate that kind of stagnant tendency, that

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literally stagnant tendency, you know, kind of every conceptual endeavor,

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and you have Marxist Leninism, you know, and related to that,

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but not you know, solely approximately caused by that, is

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that the whole concept of you know, this this this

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uh this intrinsically hostile labor and and and capital paradigm,

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you know, and the kind of the strange sociology of

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cities literally being you know, barracks for you know, hundreds

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of thousands of of uh of of factory workers. You

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know that sustain you know that this kind of terrestrial

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like national manufacturing economy of of value added exports like

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that that belongs long at a discreete moment in time,

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and building a kind of entire socio cultural structure around that.

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You're you're doing yourself to being kind of frozen in

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in in that in that moment. You know, that's that's

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the reason why. And I mean there's also in my opinion,

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like spiritual matters. I mean that quite literally, you know,

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that make it not sustainable number one. But also I

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identify glaring frailties within the system as it existed, even

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to people who are basically secular, this was a parent

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That's why even people who were not Catholic and not

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even religious, you know, very much behind John Paul the

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second and you know his efforts to to you know,

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weaken the the the grip of the party states, specifically

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on Poland, but and all the captive nations as they

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were called. You know that had with a communist party

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had a soul claim the power. But that's that's why

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even even thinkers far more kind of orthodox and they're

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thinking than YACKI understood this. George Kennan, who have a

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whole lot of respect for as I think people know,

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he made that point again and again, and he was

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criticized for it roundly by you know what was then

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the equivalent of deep state types and you know, Zionus

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types who just hated the Soviet Union for their own

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kind of ethno sectarian reasons. You know, same people who

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who've got this kind of sanguinary hated to Russia today,

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but also just guys who you know, they're they're whole

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kind of raised on detro and the way they made

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a living was by discussing the Soviet Union as this

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you know, perennial and immutable and and just insurmountable feature,

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this rateging landscape. You know, if you're if you're a

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second rate academic, but you've uh, you know, but you've

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you've found every profitable niche for yourself as this kind

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of public intellectual who's you know, protecting the country from

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this insidious threat. I mean, think of it. It's kind

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of like this the geostrategic equivalent, like at doctor Fauci.

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You know that's a sovietologists were okay, like are they

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were they gonna? I mean, I think a lot of

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these people didn't have any meaningful understanding of of of

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the situation or of communism. But even those they did,

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they had no interest in in, you know, raising the

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possibility that this system has an expiration date. You know,

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not to be flippant about it, but the book Cybernetics

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by by Winer Uh it was published in nineteen forty eight,

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and that term is uh something that centered in people's

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vocabulary from you know, science fiction and stuff. But it's

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an actual it's a meaningful term in in uh, in

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neuroscience and and applied logic and you know, AI and

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and all kinds of interdisciplinary fields that relate to decision making,

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particularly that which you know involves the interface of a

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human decision maker in a machine and various capacities. Okay,

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I raised that. I raised that text because again it

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the first the first edition was published in nineteen forty

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eight from a really uh really really to Die was

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cast in terms of the Soviet Union's fate immediately after

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the cessation about civilies in World War Two. It's not

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to say it was it was inevitable the Soviet Union

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was going to lose the Cold War, not at all.

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I made the point and the first one to make

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the point again and again that the Soviets very were

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very well situated in the strategic terms to win the

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Cold War, and arguably they taught the raison detra for

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that was in part you know that fact, and it

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was the Washington establishment coming to terms with the reality

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that you know, Warsaw Pact was winning on the battlefield.

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So I'm not suggesting the contrary, but my point is

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again to kind of bring it back that that there

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were basic frailties and peculiarities in the Soviet system and

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you will not find, uh, you will not find another

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example of of a literally like planned society in that way.

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And this is this is the point from where Yaqui

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was speaking, moving ahead in large measure, with some exceptions

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that uh, I think are kind of obvious to everybody,

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and that don't really need to be fleshed out discreetly.

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Every state, every modern state, you know that that that

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emerged as at least a nominally independent sovereignty after the

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Second World War, UH was created by by the Cold

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by by the dialectic of the Cold War. Okay, even UH,

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even if even even those states that adopted a third

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position his orientation, they were doing so in dialogue with

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the Cold War contra the ideological paradigm they're in which

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they viewed as O they're existentially menacing due to them

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being forced to pick a side and what could very

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easily become, you know, a general nuclear war, you know,

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or owing to you know, fear of a kind of

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cultural contamination that pretty much everybody formally aligned with out

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of the you know, the NATO or the socialist camp

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ran the risk of is they availed themselves to you know,

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the kind of kind of openness to the you know,

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to to the one superpower or the other. Iraq was

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no exception. To understand why America went to war with

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Annam's Iraq, It's that what I just describe needs to

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be accounted for in basic terms beyond the superficial. And

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to understand why America was sort of so focused on Iraq. Oh,

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it's this too. The Iran Raic War was the progenitor

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of what became the Gulf War of nineteen ninety one.

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If I could bring it up on my screen, I

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bring up the notes from Saddam's meeting with his war

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cabinet on the eve of war in nineteen eighty before

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giving the order to go to war with uh The

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Islamic Republic of Iran. Basically, uh, everybody from uh you know,

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these these Arabists like Saddam was, these these Pan Arab

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you know, nationalists to uh you know, you know, to

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the to these these radically pious uh you know Salafi types,

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you know, like bin Laden, you know, to uh, you know,

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to Zionists in Israel, to uh, to these American on

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Cold War functionaries like Rumsfeld, Nick Cheney. The thing they

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all agreed on, in gewostrategic terms was that the sort

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of natural power arrangement in the Near East, it's a

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struggle between Turkey and Iran for regional supremacy. That that's

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what's precedented, you know for a millennia, going back to

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when you know it was the it was the Ottomans

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who who defeated the Mongols in the Near East and

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in person for all time. You know, Thus the the

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Caliphate being a Turkish caliphate, an Arab one. Iran despite

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being a basically kind of like inward looking civilization, and

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it is in some ways of civilization into itself. It

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is a huge country with a very powerful heritage and culture.

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Doesn't matter. Anybody who's gonna tuned in to our you know,

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partisan community. I shouldn't need to elaborately make that case,

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but just uh, in raw strategic terms at least, you know,

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accounting for limitations of power rejection capability. There's this great

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potential in Iran. Okay, and Saddam again being very much

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uh the creature of the Cold War conceptually, he was

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trying to accomplish what NASCAR had failed to do, and

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and create a genuinely Arabist block, you know, with the

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Bath Party as the as the catalyst. But he had

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to tread very carefully with you know, adopting any appearance

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of sectarian prejudice or motivation. The Iraqi Bath Party it

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had Christians and key places, Tarika z one of them.

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It had Shia in in high roles, particularly some in

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the military, but at base it was a Sunny party.

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It was a party of the Sunni minority. Okay, Saddam Uh.

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Saddam's agrievances that Iran went way back the Algiers agreement

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that had been signed with the shop Uh was considered

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this kind of a victory. M see you of of types, interestingly,

238
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and it had allowed both Iran and begged they had

239
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to save face with these territorial swaps that seemed to

240
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be the kind of remaining conflict diads potentially between the

241
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two countries. The Iranian Revolution changed everything. You know, we

242
00:18:00,599 --> 00:18:05,839
talked before about how nobody really foresaw Islam becoming this

243
00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:12,200
power plant will force this animating principle, you know, particularly, uh,

244
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the late Cold War was still very much the Cold War.

245
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Arguably there's a more kind of earnest ideological bent in

246
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you know, seventy nine eighty than there had been any

247
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time prior to you know, the Eisenhower Arab you know,

248
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and and but this was not something anybody was really

249
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thinking about. And the seizure of the Grand Mosque also

250
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in nineteen seventy nine, we're in these radical Salafis, you know,

251
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occupied uh, the Grand Mosque of Mecca for weeks, you know,

252
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demand demanded the advocation of the House Assad for you know,

253
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being at odds with being at odds with with Allah

254
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and a false Maslem the uh. They went as far

255
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the Grand Mosque occupiers, they went as far as the

256
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claim that their leader, I can't remember his name at

257
00:19:06,759 --> 00:19:09,440
the top of my head, I'd a written down. They

258
00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:10,599
went as far as the claim that he was the

259
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:16,440
Madi you know, the messianic uh historical figure would emerge,

260
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you know, as as prophesied by Muhammad. I mean, so

261
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this was this was profound stuff underway. Okay, people who

262
00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:31,119
have a kind of cynical view as well as others

263
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:33,200
who just I think I'm kind of an incomplete understanding

264
00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:40,519
going to their own probable conceptual biases as regards will disbelief.

265
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Just generally, Uh, they had to look at this as

266
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no big deal, or they look at it as Saddam

267
00:19:49,079 --> 00:19:53,359
just being terrified of some kind of general uprising, and

268
00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:56,319
Iraq not even so much against the Bath Party, but

269
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just this this kind of radicalized this a lot of consciousness,

270
00:20:00,279 --> 00:20:06,000
you know, sweeping him and his comrades aside. I don't

271
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:10,279
really think that was it. I think there was great fear,

272
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:14,039
the kind of the fear that you know, sectarian minorities

273
00:20:14,079 --> 00:20:19,400
have of the program wherever they uh where wherever they're

274
00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:26,200
situated where you know, that's a realistic possibility. I think, uh,

275
00:20:26,519 --> 00:20:28,799
some had a more nuanced view of it than simply

276
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:35,000
this is something needs to be quashed less you know. Uh,

277
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it kind of become the defining ideological currency of of

278
00:20:40,079 --> 00:20:44,759
of the Arab speaking world on some level, I believe

279
00:20:44,839 --> 00:20:48,519
like all Sunnis, and Sam was a Sunni Maslim UH.

280
00:20:49,519 --> 00:20:54,079
There they felt even more gravely affronted UH at the

281
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:58,839
concept of h An Iranian Shia caliphates than you know,

282
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:05,720
they had been centuries prior to you know, the inception

283
00:21:05,839 --> 00:21:10,119
of the Turkish Califate, and so all these things conspired

284
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to kind of korem Iran Iraq towards war, and the

285
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United States and NATO, particularly the Buddhas Republic were very

286
00:21:20,319 --> 00:21:23,759
much behind this. I made the point again and again,

287
00:21:25,079 --> 00:21:29,039
you know, and again. I can't cite precise numbers because

288
00:21:29,079 --> 00:21:34,799
I can't call it my notes, but the it was

289
00:21:34,839 --> 00:21:42,240
around fifty thousand people who UH who died owing to

290
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:48,039
uh Iraqi chemical weapons assaults on Iran. Most of them

291
00:21:48,039 --> 00:21:52,599
are soldiers. Despite what, despite the impression people have oing

292
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:55,799
to you know this, you know, the kind of endlessly

293
00:21:55,839 --> 00:21:59,920
repeated narratives about the Kurds, and those people did die.

294
00:22:00,039 --> 00:22:03,279
I mean they there was plenty of civilian attrition, but

295
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:08,319
it was primarily military attrition. About twenty thousand of that

296
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:12,240
number died outright in the field. You know, these were

297
00:22:12,279 --> 00:22:17,960
Iranian troops who were hit with chemical munitions. A lot

298
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:22,559
of nerve agent and then modern nerve agent. Nobody's really

299
00:22:22,559 --> 00:22:27,359
sure like what it would do. A fair amount of

300
00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:36,640
this nerve Asian was procured from NATO countries. Ireneians soldiers

301
00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:40,880
were treated in Europe, in Scandinavia, some in Germany, some

302
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:42,799
of the Benelux countries. I mean, part of that was

303
00:22:42,799 --> 00:22:45,319
genuine doctor without borders, like doing their thing. Part of

304
00:22:45,319 --> 00:22:50,920
it was a hot war in Europe. Definitely, chemical weapons,

305
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:55,720
they're not obsolescent. They're actually quite utile, depending on the

306
00:22:57,759 --> 00:23:05,559
depending on the battle space and a general a general

307
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:09,279
war between uh NATO and Warsaw Pact in nineteen eighty

308
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:13,440
it's almost, I mean, it's a very on conclusion that

309
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:18,039
chemical weapons would have been used. So the world is

310
00:23:18,079 --> 00:23:21,599
watching the Iran Iraq war, okay, for all kinds of reasons,

311
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:26,640
some of which, uh you know, some which owing to

312
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:35,279
very concrete for kind of purely military matters, others relating

313
00:23:35,319 --> 00:23:40,359
to the political ones. And this idea that saidam this

314
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:46,359
deranged maniac and he only enjoyed the large guests of

315
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,119
of the United States and the bundest Republic and in

316
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,880
London because the Iranians were even worse deranged mediacs. I

317
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:55,200
mean that that's that's that's garbage for all kinds of reasons,

318
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:58,480
and only literates think that way. But also, sadamza Raak,

319
00:23:58,559 --> 00:24:02,119
it was a brutal state, it was a gangsterish regime.

320
00:24:02,319 --> 00:24:04,880
But I mean a lot of regimes were like that,

321
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:08,400
A lot of regimes are like that. That America backed

322
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:12,000
the ultimate megaciityl gangster regime in World War two and

323
00:24:12,039 --> 00:24:16,240
stalin Soviet Union. So I mean it's not really sam

324
00:24:16,319 --> 00:24:19,799
Za rag was remarkable in the sense of how we're

325
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:23,519
where and when it was historically situated, and you know,

326
00:24:23,559 --> 00:24:27,559
the kind of the global power plays that became involved

327
00:24:27,559 --> 00:24:32,359
in in a very direct and catastrophic capacity. But there's

328
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:37,000
not something like weirder extreme excuse me, in any sense

329
00:24:37,079 --> 00:24:42,200
that Sadam Sane enjoyed the backing of them, of the

330
00:24:42,319 --> 00:24:49,359
US and and and certain key uh needle players. And

331
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:53,519
it's uh. The minutes from the meeting between Saddam and

332
00:24:53,559 --> 00:24:56,759
the Bath War Council, what amounts to the Bath War Council,

333
00:24:57,759 --> 00:25:02,559
he's talking about restraints like not in uh not not

334
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:04,799
in like a Ronald Reagan kind of way or something,

335
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:07,680
but he's saying like, we don't want a wider war

336
00:25:07,799 --> 00:25:12,119
than what we need in order to you know, situate ourself,

337
00:25:12,599 --> 00:25:15,680
uh in the position we want to be contra Iran.

338
00:25:16,279 --> 00:25:18,319
You know, we don't want this to turn into a

339
00:25:18,319 --> 00:25:21,240
prolonged war. We don't want it to become a wider

340
00:25:21,279 --> 00:25:25,359
war where among the thanks God forbid Iran, could you know,

341
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:31,400
potentially shore up sympathy of of of of other Moslim states,

342
00:25:31,839 --> 00:25:33,240
you know, like these are not there's not like the

343
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:37,880
ramblings of some idiot or it's not it's not it's

344
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:42,079
not some belieguer dictator who's suing for war in lieu

345
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:45,200
of the status quo, because that's its only path of survival,

346
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:52,279
you know, and that's key, you know. And it's also

347
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:59,799
Iran fought a lot better than anybody thought. And obviously

348
00:25:59,839 --> 00:26:02,640
they hung on for almost a decade, you know, getting

349
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:07,079
pounded by the Iraqi army that was throwing everything it

350
00:26:07,079 --> 00:26:10,359
had at them, quite literally. They you know, America was

351
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:13,759
saying in the epoch, uh, you know, State Department and

352
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:17,079
CIA and I think Defense Intelligence probably had a more

353
00:26:17,079 --> 00:26:20,759
realistic grasp on things. But it's the same, it's the

354
00:26:20,799 --> 00:26:24,720
same nonsense they always say about states and regimes. They

355
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,480
don't like that this regime is about the fall aparts.

356
00:26:27,519 --> 00:26:31,640
Everybody is starving there. You know, it had the revolutionary

357
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:35,240
government has no popular support. You know the moment, you know,

358
00:26:35,279 --> 00:26:38,799
the moment hostilities commenced. You know they're all going to

359
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:41,279
surrender and the regime is going to collapse. I mean,

360
00:26:41,319 --> 00:26:45,759
this was you know this, this is always the alibi.

361
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:50,759
But it's incredibly it's it's remarkably foolish because if Iran,

362
00:26:51,559 --> 00:26:53,799
you know, like I, this is probably the only time

363
00:26:53,799 --> 00:26:58,359
you'll hear me cite fu Co in appraising capacity. But

364
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:04,240
he he wrote this dispatch one of if you're kinda

365
00:27:04,279 --> 00:27:08,000
purely like journalistic, at least in structure, you know, dispatches

366
00:27:08,079 --> 00:27:12,319
he ever released for at least for wide publication. It

367
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:16,160
was about the Rnian Revolution and it was frankly insightful.

368
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:19,759
And he said, this is a genuine third way. This

369
00:27:19,839 --> 00:27:24,079
is a genuine pop popular revolution. But it's not something

370
00:27:24,079 --> 00:27:26,960
that's just going to burn itself out, so to speak,

371
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:31,400
once the immediate catalyst revolution fervor is gone. You know,

372
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:34,440
he's like, for better or worse, these people have, these

373
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,039
people have a very highly developed a vision for what

374
00:27:37,079 --> 00:27:39,759
they are trying to do. It is in fact precedented

375
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:46,839
it's uh, you know, it appeals to a wide swath

376
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:51,039
of people, you know, demographically. This is something that needs

377
00:27:51,079 --> 00:27:53,559
to be taken seriously, you know. And he was speaking

378
00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:58,039
obviously in the context of you know, the Asdyton was ending, okay,

379
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:03,119
but he was kind of a lone voice in the wilderness.

380
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,200
And it's weird. I mean, aside from the fact that

381
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,359
you know, he was kind of a later date desad

382
00:28:08,519 --> 00:28:10,880
and a lot of what he produced in addition to

383
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:14,079
just being you know, kind of grossly morally offensive and

384
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:16,279
up to so it was just plaining, like not insightful,

385
00:28:16,279 --> 00:28:19,799
and it was wrong, particularly on matters of you know, power,

386
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:24,759
politics and kind of human affairs and of a political nature.

387
00:28:25,319 --> 00:28:28,319
But whatever reason, he was absolutely right about that. Okay

388
00:28:29,839 --> 00:28:33,799
that perhaps wren't some speculation at some point the dedicated capacity,

389
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:37,839
but he was absolutely right. So they ran Iraq war

390
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:40,119
became just like a disaster. You know, neither I ran

391
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:42,519
or Iraq ever recovered from it, because you know, you

392
00:28:42,519 --> 00:28:47,119
don't recover from eight years of total war, okay, and

393
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:50,279
if you do, eventually, you're not the same. Particularly, I mean,

394
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:54,559
when you're when you're talking about the when you're talking

395
00:28:54,599 --> 00:28:56,640
about when I ran in Iraq on the late twentieth century,

396
00:28:56,720 --> 00:29:01,759
I got scale, Like though it's it some it's like

397
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:04,440
what I just stated as a constant pretty much regardless,

398
00:29:05,119 --> 00:29:09,599
you know, but particularly particularly for states of that of

399
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:13,079
that size, I ran was a lot bigger than I racked.

400
00:29:13,119 --> 00:29:18,079
My point is, neither was a superpower or anything. Yeah,

401
00:29:18,119 --> 00:29:20,720
I'll see what can be done. Yeah, I'm sorry about that.

402
00:29:20,799 --> 00:29:22,640
I was like, I'm trying to think of, like exactly

403
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:24,599
where I was when I left off.

404
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:28,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, the last thing you said, what you were talking

405
00:29:28,839 --> 00:29:32,240
about Iran and Iraq, and I wrote down your last

406
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:35,039
words that I heard and said, neither there was a superpower.

407
00:29:36,519 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 2: Right. Nevertheless, Uh, there were the decisions they made stood

408
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:48,680
to be impactful on the global scale, Okay, it and

409
00:29:48,759 --> 00:29:50,160
I don't know if it were. I don't know if

410
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:52,559
the recording picked up or not. I made the point

411
00:29:52,559 --> 00:29:58,079
that although he was very careful not to characterize the

412
00:29:58,079 --> 00:30:03,039
conflict in sectarian terms, owing to the reality that you know,

413
00:30:04,079 --> 00:30:07,880
his party was a Sunni majority party and the sea

414
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:15,880
of of Shia Muslims, but also that would have compromised, uh,

415
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:20,400
you know, his entire raizo and deetro and political life,

416
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:26,079
you know, which was the created genuine Arabism rit large

417
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:34,160
as a mobilizing catalyst. And whether people whether they you know,

418
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,680
and and and the Iraqi bath tried to carry whether

419
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:38,559
whether it was Saddam himself, whether it was the Ministry

420
00:30:38,559 --> 00:30:41,720
of Information, or whether it was the Warp Cabinet. They

421
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,799
tried to characterize it as a as as a racial conflict,

422
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:47,599
especially as things went bad after nineteen eighty three. You know,

423
00:30:47,759 --> 00:30:50,839
where the Arab people like fighting like the Persian other

424
00:30:51,079 --> 00:30:56,119
or like the Aziri you know uh of alien whether

425
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,160
like Iraqi people like bought into that anyway or not.

426
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:01,720
I don't really think they it didn't matter. They definitely

427
00:31:01,759 --> 00:31:09,240
were afraid of Iranians. They definitely they definitely viewed h

428
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:14,759
revolutionary Iran. Again, you know the history of the neress

429
00:31:14,799 --> 00:31:19,480
domination by the Turks, by the Iranians, Persians or both.

430
00:31:21,839 --> 00:31:24,839
And even people who would have been basically had no

431
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:30,079
issue in in ethno or racial terms with Iran. You know,

432
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:37,119
the this emergent Islamic tendency as a catalyst for for

433
00:31:37,279 --> 00:31:44,160
political uh action and as a truly you know, significant

434
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:52,160
power political catalyst on the world stage. Any Arab would

435
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:54,200
have felt affronted by that, like this, you know, this

436
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:56,720
should not like the Persians should not be leading this

437
00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:59,920
this this charge you know, and that or that. No,

438
00:32:00,079 --> 00:32:03,400
you know, the first true Islamic state, you know, should

439
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:06,359
you know, should it should be the it should be

440
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:09,119
the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, you know, like it can't

441
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:12,559
it can't be this like this, this Shia, you know,

442
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:17,680
this Persian Shia state. You know of of Ayatolas and

443
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:22,680
and you know Uh and Malah allers and things like.

444
00:32:23,839 --> 00:32:28,559
You know, so there was very much that too. And

445
00:32:28,599 --> 00:32:31,839
neither I react nor I ran ever recovered, because you

446
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:38,200
don't recover from a conflict like that. And you know

447
00:32:38,279 --> 00:32:41,240
that's why I set the stage for this, because it's

448
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:46,240
so important going into August second, nineteen ninety. People pretend

449
00:32:46,319 --> 00:32:48,559
like Saddam USI was like this idiot or like some

450
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:51,920
deranged madman. He was neither of those things. And because

451
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:56,160
I think I finally got my notes back so I

452
00:32:56,160 --> 00:33:00,359
can check this document I want to do, I'm the

453
00:33:00,359 --> 00:33:04,119
minutes of Saddam H talking to is Uh to the

454
00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:09,960
bad War cabinet on on the eve of war, you know,

455
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:17,119
just before twenty second September nineteen eighty. He's Uh talking

456
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:21,720
about how the Algiers, the Treaty of Algiers. You know,

457
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:25,480
that basically allowed Iraq to preserve their honor. And you

458
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:27,839
know that the Shah was a man we could work with,

459
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:32,519
you know, but all bets are off as revolutionary regime. However,

460
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:36,160
Sadam continued to he could. He kept emphasizing over and

461
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,480
over again, this has to be a limited war. We've

462
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:41,319
got to We've got to limit our objectives military and political.

463
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,359
This cannot be allowed to turn into a quagmire and

464
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:46,720
nor we We've got to make it clear that this is,

465
00:33:48,799 --> 00:33:52,799
you know, an effort to create you know, a lib

466
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:57,359
a livable strategic balance for Arab people. There's not some

467
00:33:58,319 --> 00:34:02,599
open ended war of conquest against Iran, you know. And

468
00:34:02,599 --> 00:34:08,719
and again he he had the full support of in

469
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:13,760
in in military terms, you know, of uh, the United States,

470
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:17,480
the Bundest Republic, you know, and basically the key players

471
00:34:19,599 --> 00:34:24,679
in NATO for a reason. You know, it's I don't

472
00:34:24,679 --> 00:34:28,360
know if it recorded me or not. I mean, I

473
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:29,880
don't know if it was recording me when when I

474
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:37,039
talked about that season the Grand Mosque, Did I record that? Okay? Saddam,

475
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:40,559
like everybody else in the world, his eyes were on

476
00:34:40,639 --> 00:34:45,920
Saudi Arabia on Mecca in nineteen seventy nine, as well

477
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:49,519
as uh the Islamic Republic of Iran, the season the

478
00:34:49,519 --> 00:34:52,920
Grand Mosque. By this, the besieging militia they called themselves

479
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:59,480
the Equan I'll equan, which is a reference to the

480
00:34:59,119 --> 00:35:02,320
the to the basic that Bedouins under her arms, who

481
00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:07,199
played a part of establishing Saudi Arabia. They seized the

482
00:35:07,199 --> 00:35:11,840
Grand Mosque from November twentieth to December fourth. They declared

483
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:18,400
that their leader, Al Katani was the Madhi literally the Madi,

484
00:35:18,559 --> 00:35:23,000
you know, like the Messianic figure and in Islamic theology,

485
00:35:23,079 --> 00:35:27,559
who you know, who ushers in Islamic victory. You know,

486
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:33,079
they this was something nobody saw coming. I mean not

487
00:35:34,079 --> 00:35:35,679
if you looked at It's like, okay, if you could

488
00:35:35,679 --> 00:35:38,199
look at if people were disposed to look at the

489
00:35:38,199 --> 00:35:41,280
Iranian revolution as this kind of outlier phenomenon and look

490
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:43,639
at Shia Islam as kind of a strange thing, or

491
00:35:43,679 --> 00:35:46,760
look at the Shah's regime as this kind of brutal

492
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:53,000
police state that you know, people were looking for something

493
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:55,159
to grasp onto as a catalyst to bring it down.

494
00:35:56,559 --> 00:35:59,360
You couldn't you couldn't suggest that about the season, the

495
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:05,000
Grand Mass, the fact that you know, this was happening

496
00:36:05,039 --> 00:36:07,960
in the sunny world as well, this kind of burgaining

497
00:36:08,039 --> 00:36:14,079
Islamic consciousness that was translating to you know, real direct

498
00:36:14,199 --> 00:36:20,199
action in war in peace terms. This changed everything, you know.

499
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:25,719
And this also this is again why Saddam he was

500
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:31,760
cautious and uh not characterizing the conflict with Iran as

501
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:35,559
as a sectarian conflict, you know, And basically, I mean

502
00:36:35,559 --> 00:36:39,760
that was pragmatic. I mean obviously because uh the Iraqi

503
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:43,320
Bath was a minority party of and and although they

504
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:46,960
had she they had Christians, Utrikasas was a Christian in

505
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:51,119
their ranks. They couldn't well afford to be viewed as

506
00:36:52,199 --> 00:36:57,840
as uh as as as sectarian bigots. But you know

507
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:02,360
there's those who wellcome that kind of thing, even against

508
00:37:02,679 --> 00:37:05,119
odds that would appear in surmounted belowing the blood loss

509
00:37:05,199 --> 00:37:07,920
or whatever else it. Uh So again, I mean, this

510
00:37:08,039 --> 00:37:11,280
idea that that Saunam was just this like maniac or

511
00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:16,519
or this buffoon does not the historical record does not

512
00:37:16,519 --> 00:37:19,559
bear that out. And that's what I got into, I

513
00:37:19,559 --> 00:37:22,000
think right before I cut out a couple of things,

514
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:25,840
you know about the only time, the only This is

515
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:28,199
probably the only time I'll ever say anything praising about

516
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:33,440
fu Co. But fu Co he wrote this, uh dispatch

517
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:36,639
on the Iranian Revolution because he was in Iran when

518
00:37:36,639 --> 00:37:43,199
it was underway, and it was incredibly insightful. And again

519
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:46,039
I I, I know, it's hard to believe that fu

520
00:37:46,119 --> 00:37:49,719
copenn anything, particularly something that was like, you know, then

521
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:53,800
contemporaneous to the to the kind of strategic situation and

522
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:59,280
and and the burgening kind of you know, political culture

523
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:04,599
of of rite Islam. But uh, you know, he said, look,

524
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:08,280
this isn't a flash in the pan sort of phenomenon.

525
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:11,880
You know, it's not It's not just a typical you know,

526
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:15,280
revolutionary tendency dressed up in the language she is loam

527
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:18,480
for cosmetic reasons or or because they you know, they

528
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:20,840
want to keep the Soviet Union out as much as

529
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:22,599
they do, you know, as much as they want to

530
00:38:22,639 --> 00:38:27,920
evict the Americans. You know from from pulling the strings

531
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:30,360
in Tehran. You know, it was very authentic, It was

532
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:36,119
authentically felt, and it represented something different that you know,

533
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:43,000
theretofore was not part of the part of people's conceptual horizon.

534
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:47,519
As Detant came to an end, you know, there's profound

535
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:51,599
things underway. And all of this coupled again with the

536
00:38:51,639 --> 00:38:56,760
fact that every Arab with UH you know, a political

537
00:38:56,800 --> 00:39:01,920
consciousness and with a concern and you know, historical terms

538
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:08,679
the fortune of his own people. A revolutionary Iran or

539
00:39:09,039 --> 00:39:13,320
just like uh an irridentist and and militarized Turkey. These

540
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:21,639
are very ominous things, you know. The the UH Turkey

541
00:39:21,679 --> 00:39:29,039
and Iran a sort of the natural UH hedgemonds regionally.

542
00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:31,519
That's one of the reasons why, like people are obsessed

543
00:39:31,519 --> 00:39:34,360
about Turkey and Iran. You know, whether it's these whether

544
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:37,440
it's these kind of cynical Cold War fossils who stuck

545
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:41,760
around like Rumsfeld and Cheney, whether it's you know, Zionist types, uh,

546
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:45,719
these kind of like rabid Zionist that gets like Menahu

547
00:39:46,039 --> 00:39:48,679
or I mean like the the like the Arabist UH

548
00:39:49,679 --> 00:39:53,920
you know bath Uh revolutionary types like Sadamwa's. You know,

549
00:39:55,119 --> 00:40:00,519
there's the reason why the Israeli fixation and Iran like it.

550
00:40:00,519 --> 00:40:07,000
It deteriorates on certain points of policy vision and into

551
00:40:07,039 --> 00:40:12,679
just like naked irrationality. Okay, but generally it's not it's uh,

552
00:40:13,039 --> 00:40:17,920
it's not without precedent to view again, the UH, the

553
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:20,679
real like power players in the region as ah as,

554
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:27,280
Turkey and Iran. But going into August second the uh AS,

555
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:31,360
things started to go really poorly on the battlefield for Iraq.

556
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:37,119
August ninety eighty three is not Iraq deployed chemical weapons

557
00:40:37,559 --> 00:40:44,360
for the first time in a battlefield capacity. All told,

558
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:48,760
throughout the war. In nineteen ninety one uh the CIA

559
00:40:49,159 --> 00:40:52,960
released its documents and so so did Defense and Defense

560
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:58,639
Intelligence on the Iran Iraq war. It's pretty much agreed

561
00:40:59,159 --> 00:41:01,880
we all parties of about fifty thousand I ran to

562
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:05,960
talk about fifty thousand casualties only to chemical weapons. About

563
00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:09,519
twenty thousand of those casualties weere Iranian soldiers killed outright,

564
00:41:09,679 --> 00:41:11,559
you know, just like when they were hit or like

565
00:41:11,679 --> 00:41:16,320
mass Afterwards, the Iranqi's made liberal use in nerve gas

566
00:41:16,519 --> 00:41:22,639
nerve agent, mostly taboon and seren And make no mistakes

567
00:41:22,679 --> 00:41:28,320
by what people say, chemical weapons remain very utile depending

568
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:32,239
on the nature of the engagement in the battle space.

569
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:35,679
And you better believe that it was clear to everybody

570
00:41:37,119 --> 00:41:39,880
on both sides of the wall, you know, Natal and

571
00:41:39,920 --> 00:41:43,880
Morris up Peck war players alake that if and when

572
00:41:44,079 --> 00:41:46,320
war came to Europe there would be liberal use of

573
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:53,480
poison gas. Okay, So the strong attention was paid in

574
00:41:53,519 --> 00:41:56,000
both you know and in both the Eastern Bloc and

575
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:59,679
and made always the what the impact was a chemical

576
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:09,360
weapon is on uh on on modern infantry it I

577
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:11,519
mean again, I guess I dropped that because it uh

578
00:42:11,559 --> 00:42:14,920
and and much and much, if not all, of these

579
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:18,719
chemical munitions were were supplied by NATO countries. Okay. At

580
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:25,920
uh this was not some like rogue state action or

581
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:31,719
something on that sort. But it this is uh this this,

582
00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:35,480
this was where Tandam was uh. This was the mindset. Okay.

583
00:42:35,519 --> 00:42:40,519
This was a conceptual situatedness of Sadam. The Iranqi bath

584
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:45,519
kind of like the Arab street generally in the several

585
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:53,960
Arab speaking Maslim majority countries going into August second, nineteen ninety.

586
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:59,639
Also what had to have been on soams on Sadam's mind.

587
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:04,920
The Soviet Union still existed in August nineteen ninety, but

588
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:09,760
the Berlin Wall was no more, the Cold War was over.

589
00:43:11,519 --> 00:43:15,639
There was still a huge potential for crisis. Arguably the

590
00:43:15,679 --> 00:43:19,119
world was you know, there was tremended danger afoot owing

591
00:43:19,159 --> 00:43:23,239
to instability and the fact that not any kind of

592
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:27,719
meaningful disarmament had been accomplished, particularly in regards to nuclear forces,

593
00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:35,639
unless you count the Intermediate Forces Treaty itself. But the

594
00:43:35,679 --> 00:43:41,760
Carter Doctrine, you know, which the Carter Doctrine, which you know,

595
00:43:42,039 --> 00:43:49,840
stated in no uncertain terms that any Soviet attack on

596
00:43:49,920 --> 00:43:54,239
any state in the Middle East, basically any hostile deployment,

597
00:43:56,119 --> 00:43:58,480
the United States would would treat that as an attack

598
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:00,599
on his vital interests, you know. And it would, it would,

599
00:44:00,639 --> 00:44:04,960
and it would meet the attack with proportionate force. Okay,

600
00:44:05,599 --> 00:44:09,000
But the Carter doctor and absent the Soviet Union doesn't

601
00:44:09,039 --> 00:44:12,719
really make any sense, you know. And it's not like

602
00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:16,320
there was some precedent for America just intervening in the

603
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:18,800
Middle East just on just on basic terms, you know,

604
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:24,800
or on its own terms. So from the perspective of Saddam,

605
00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:33,239
there was that too, you know. And finally, you know,

606
00:44:34,119 --> 00:44:39,400
America only ended UH the military draft in nineteen seventy three.

607
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:44,800
The last time America deployed forces into an open ended

608
00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:53,159
coomic situation was Vietnam. The Democratic Party, their platform consistently

609
00:44:53,679 --> 00:44:59,840
was hostile to UH military industrial interests. As a matter

610
00:44:59,920 --> 00:45:05,119
of course, the revolution and military affairs for as of

611
00:45:05,119 --> 00:45:09,280
all people like like the common man or woman are

612
00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:12,000
kind of are kind of ignorant military affairs anyway. But

613
00:45:12,039 --> 00:45:14,719
they had no concept of rima. They had no concept

614
00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:18,960
of what was different about, you know, uh, waging a

615
00:45:19,039 --> 00:45:22,280
counterinsurgency war with conventional elements like in South East Asia

616
00:45:22,320 --> 00:45:27,360
in a Cold war context, which axiomatically limited the operational environment.

617
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:30,440
They had no concept of why that is radically different

618
00:45:30,599 --> 00:45:33,519
than waging a conventional war in the desert against the

619
00:45:33,519 --> 00:45:38,840
country like Iraq. But there Americans were basically not enthusiastic about,

620
00:45:39,079 --> 00:45:45,079
uh about about military deployments and this idea of you know,

621
00:45:46,199 --> 00:45:49,199
just Congress signing off on some open ended deployment to

622
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:52,039
wage a general war with Iraq, you know, to liberate

623
00:45:52,039 --> 00:45:55,360
a to liberate a country that was you know, this

624
00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:59,239
kind of oil sheik kingdom like that. It was not

625
00:45:59,360 --> 00:46:02,239
for our include that that America was willing to go to war,

626
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:05,159
and in fact, most people viewed it as unlikely that

627
00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:12,000
America would deploy, you know, at scale to accomplish as that.

628
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:15,199
And finally, what was essential even if the political will

629
00:46:15,360 --> 00:46:19,800
was there in America, even if you know, public opinion

630
00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:24,079
was one hundred percent behind it, even if there was

631
00:46:24,079 --> 00:46:26,679
a consensus on the Beltway even before a shot was fired,

632
00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:31,920
and anger you still want whoever that you know was

633
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:35,519
in the old office would literally have to finesse UH.

634
00:46:35,639 --> 00:46:41,840
A coalition that quite literally had UH, you know, the

635
00:46:41,920 --> 00:46:47,480
Arab world one hundred percent behind America as well as

636
00:46:47,519 --> 00:46:53,719
also them in the Soviet Union, agreed to stand down. Okay. Now,

637
00:46:55,599 --> 00:46:57,639
I'm not gonna sit here and pretend like Bush forty

638
00:46:57,639 --> 00:47:00,159
one was a good guy or that we should like him,

639
00:47:00,519 --> 00:47:06,639
or that you know, he was a man worthy of

640
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:10,400
your my esteem or anything like that. Okay, but Bush

641
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:13,840
was UH an incredible political operator, and he was an

642
00:47:13,840 --> 00:47:17,920
incredible and chief executive within the bound of rationality of command. Okay,

643
00:47:19,000 --> 00:47:26,360
what he accomplished, I I can see Nixon point off, Okay,

644
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:32,039
within a different context, but that's nothing sort of remarkable,

645
00:47:32,280 --> 00:47:40,960
and that uh, that is something that I believe will

646
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:46,400
very much guarantee Bush forty one's legacy as at least

647
00:47:46,440 --> 00:47:51,800
a students like serious students of a political theory and

648
00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:54,239
of UH and of government as well as Warren Peace.

649
00:47:56,079 --> 00:47:58,519
And that's one that's that's why I speak of Bush

650
00:47:58,559 --> 00:48:01,800
and what I know people at hag ME sometimes essentily

651
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:04,880
just good natured ribbing for what appears to be, you know,

652
00:48:04,960 --> 00:48:07,039
some kind of like praise of like Bush, and I

653
00:48:07,039 --> 00:48:09,280
mean understandably, like why why would Ione say nice thing

654
00:48:09,320 --> 00:48:14,360
about the Bush family? But you know, I it doesn't

655
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:17,960
matter what his politics were in this context. We're talking

656
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:22,599
about the essence of executive decisionism and all of that.

657
00:48:26,280 --> 00:48:32,000
Let's let's take out the Gulf or proper in another episode.

658
00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:34,960
If you're okay with that, I'm sorry if it's on

659
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:37,079
my end. I mean, I'm sorry on my end, Like

660
00:48:37,119 --> 00:48:40,480
the Zoom we got food bar, I'll hop on my

661
00:48:40,559 --> 00:48:41,719
dad's machine.

662
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 1: Or been fine since it's been fine since you shut

663
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:46,039
it down and restarted it.

664
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:50,760
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, I'll we even convene this weekend. I don't

665
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:53,000
I feel pressured. We'll record for the next series. Will

666
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:54,760
commence that anytime you want, you know, and if it's

667
00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:57,079
like Monday, but I wanted, I want to do a

668
00:48:57,119 --> 00:49:01,840
part two to conclude Golf War one and uh yeah,

669
00:49:01,920 --> 00:49:06,360
that's that's dope, and I'll I'll make sure that I'll

670
00:49:06,400 --> 00:49:07,920
do whatever I can make sure it's not an issue

671
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:11,679
with like Zoom freezing my stuff or whatever problem. Okay, yeah,

672
00:49:11,679 --> 00:49:12,800
thank you, Pete.

673
00:49:12,519 --> 00:49:14,599
Speaker 1: All right, man, I'm gonna I'm gonna cut it now

674
00:49:14,639 --> 00:49:17,000
and we'll talk about recording that second one over the

675
00:49:17,000 --> 00:49:17,880
next couple of days.

676
00:49:18,199 --> 00:49:19,760
Speaker 2: Definitely, all right, thanks man.

677
00:49:20,239 --> 00:49:25,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to welcome everyone back to the Pekanana Show.

678
00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:30,119
Thomas is here to finish up this quick two episode.

679
00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:34,599
Speaker 3: The Gulf War of was it ninety to ninety one?

680
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:35,960
I was alive for it.

681
00:49:36,639 --> 00:49:41,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was. The Iraqi assault in Kuwait was August second,

682
00:49:41,519 --> 00:49:46,840
nineteen ninety Desert Shield. It became desert storm on January seventeenth,

683
00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:52,599
nineteen ninety one. The station of hostilities was in March

684
00:49:53,360 --> 00:49:58,920
of nineteen ninety one, but an incredibly impactful event for

685
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:03,519
all kinds of reasons, and it equits President Bush in

686
00:50:03,599 --> 00:50:07,159
the historical record. Again, I people misconstrue what I mean

687
00:50:07,199 --> 00:50:12,880
by that. I'm not endorsing Bush's character or saying that

688
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:17,280
I share what was his policy vision for the world,

689
00:50:17,320 --> 00:50:19,719
which in a lot of ways was a more restrained

690
00:50:21,239 --> 00:50:25,920
iteration of of of what the New Dealers saw, as

691
00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:29,320
you know, kind of the ideal configuration of world order.

692
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:33,400
I think Bush forty one has something in common with

693
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:37,239
Harry Truman. Frankly, he was a better warlord and they

694
00:50:37,360 --> 00:50:39,760
just like a more capable guy, you know. But he

695
00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:42,599
That's kind of the way to understand his policy vision

696
00:50:42,599 --> 00:50:46,960
in great basic terms. Okay, his view for complex and

697
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:51,800
independence and globalism was different. I mean, part of that

698
00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:54,760
ode to the different ep box in which they you know,

699
00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:59,679
were ascendant in terms of their own role. But part

700
00:50:59,719 --> 00:51:03,320
of it was just you know, Bush had a unique

701
00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:06,559
uh he he hit a unique concept that what globalism

702
00:51:06,599 --> 00:51:10,440
would look like that that And again I'm not I

703
00:51:10,480 --> 00:51:15,360
want to qualify this because people misunderstand, you know, I'm

704
00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:18,199
talking about the about irrationality. I'm doing these things in

705
00:51:18,199 --> 00:51:21,440
the bout irrationality the goals of these actors themselves, Okay,

706
00:51:21,519 --> 00:51:26,679
and I'm juxtaposing that with the total kind of insanity

707
00:51:26,800 --> 00:51:32,920
and nonsensical like non policy that is, you know, characteristic

708
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:35,679
today of their regime. You know, it's not even it's

709
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:37,199
not even so much today that you know, I'm out

710
00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:39,880
of the point in clintonon where like there was there

711
00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:42,280
was no foreign policy, you know, there was there was

712
00:51:42,320 --> 00:51:47,960
just this bizarre, uh destructive kind of scatter shot you know,

713
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:57,360
collection of of of constellation of like military adventurism, you know,

714
00:51:57,400 --> 00:51:59,559
against the enemies of Israel and against other just kind

715
00:51:59,559 --> 00:52:03,559
of random states that you know, oh, owing to some

716
00:52:03,679 --> 00:52:07,880
discreete interest group and their ability to bring pressure or

717
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:13,960
to you know, localized economic interests you know, was targeted

718
00:52:13,960 --> 00:52:16,840
for destruction. But beyond that, there literally is no like

719
00:52:17,079 --> 00:52:19,280
meaningful foreign policy. I make the point again and again

720
00:52:19,320 --> 00:52:22,639
to people that people like Mike Pompeio or like Nicky Haley,

721
00:52:22,760 --> 00:52:25,239
like these people really are fucking morons, Like they're not

722
00:52:25,519 --> 00:52:28,800
they're not acting, you know, they're not dumbing down their

723
00:52:29,360 --> 00:52:32,159
language conceptually to trying appeel to like the common man

724
00:52:32,360 --> 00:52:35,000
or woman. Like they really are like fucking idiots, Like

725
00:52:35,000 --> 00:52:37,480
they have no they have no concept at all of

726
00:52:37,480 --> 00:52:41,800
of of the world and power political or anything like that.

727
00:52:42,039 --> 00:52:46,280
So Bush, Baker, Scowcroft, even Cheney, and Cheney is a

728
00:52:46,360 --> 00:52:49,880
terrible person. But again, you know, we're not talking about

729
00:52:49,960 --> 00:52:54,320
the character of these people. You know, they they stand

730
00:52:54,360 --> 00:52:59,760
out and the kind of like the the the contrasting

731
00:53:00,159 --> 00:53:03,639
is a high relief of verbally speaking, but it's also

732
00:53:03,679 --> 00:53:10,440
to the Gulf War other than Korea. Other than Korean War,

733
00:53:11,519 --> 00:53:15,559
it's really the only case of the United Nations functioning

734
00:53:15,559 --> 00:53:19,199
as it was inten function. Okay, so from one, Amazon two,

735
00:53:19,199 --> 00:53:21,559
and of course, like in the Korean War, the Soviet

736
00:53:21,639 --> 00:53:24,360
Union was boycotting the United Nations. So I mean, that's

737
00:53:24,400 --> 00:53:29,000
why the Security Council was able to bypass what would

738
00:53:29,039 --> 00:53:33,519
have been, you know, an inevitable Soviet veto or the

739
00:53:33,559 --> 00:53:39,559
resolution to defend the Republic of Korea. The fact that

740
00:53:39,599 --> 00:53:42,840
Bush was able to get I mean, you gotta look

741
00:53:42,840 --> 00:53:47,320
at it like this, okay, from nineteen seven to facto,

742
00:53:47,440 --> 00:53:53,679
from nineteen seventy three onward, the Middle East became a

743
00:53:53,679 --> 00:53:58,760
conflict diad, the traversing of which, by hostile deployment by

744
00:53:58,800 --> 00:54:01,360
their you know, the United States to Warsaw Pact, led

745
00:54:01,360 --> 00:54:04,599
to World War three. It was, it was declared the

746
00:54:04,679 --> 00:54:07,840
fact though a vital us deer of interest in nineteen

747
00:54:07,880 --> 00:54:13,719
seventy three, you know, when when uh it appeared as if, uh,

748
00:54:13,960 --> 00:54:17,239
the Soviet Union was going to deploy to relieve the

749
00:54:17,239 --> 00:54:22,000
Egyptian Army and prevent their destruction, you know, the United

750
00:54:22,000 --> 00:54:27,800
States UH then elevated the Defcon three. The Soviet Union,

751
00:54:27,800 --> 00:54:34,360
in turn, deployed nuclear warheads to the port of Alexandria.

752
00:54:34,519 --> 00:54:37,679
They weren't married to their launch vehicles. They never came ashore,

753
00:54:39,119 --> 00:54:50,760
and UH, Gramco and USANOV undoubtedly, but Grimgo was certain advised, advised, uh,

754
00:54:50,960 --> 00:54:54,199
version of the you know, to to prepare for war

755
00:54:54,280 --> 00:54:58,400
basically you know, the deploy what with warsaw packs version

756
00:54:58,440 --> 00:55:03,039
of their rapid reaction for which which which technically was

757
00:55:03,079 --> 00:55:05,920
like a paratrooper elemental and nobody was like using parachutes

758
00:55:05,960 --> 00:55:09,119
by then, you know, but they were they did. The

759
00:55:09,920 --> 00:55:12,199
Soviet Union did have an equivalent of a rapid reaction

760
00:55:12,320 --> 00:55:16,559
for US that deployed basically like uh, you know, the

761
00:55:16,599 --> 00:55:20,639
eighty second Airborne and that element attached to it did

762
00:55:20,719 --> 00:55:25,159
for the the Bright Star exercise bi annually. But I digress.

763
00:55:25,199 --> 00:55:31,039
But the point is Middle East policy as regards warren

764
00:55:31,119 --> 00:55:34,719
peace became formalized by the Carter doctrine, you know, and

765
00:55:34,840 --> 00:55:39,880
uh Carter declared to know uncertain terms, you know, when

766
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:46,079
when the Red Army assaulted Afghanistan that you know, any

767
00:55:46,400 --> 00:55:50,840
any Soviet ingress into the Middle East would would be

768
00:55:50,920 --> 00:55:53,039
treas an active war, you know, against the United States

769
00:55:53,039 --> 00:55:57,639
and its allies. And so the fact that Bush was

770
00:55:57,679 --> 00:56:02,440
able to the fact that the fact that he was

771
00:56:02,480 --> 00:56:04,800
able to get the Soviets to sign on to a

772
00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:10,440
massive US deployment to the Arabian Peninsula and the fact

773
00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:12,360
that he was able to do so able not just

774
00:56:12,400 --> 00:56:15,960
to facilitate that, but to get the Soviets to agree

775
00:56:15,960 --> 00:56:21,119
to that deployment for the purpose of of engaging what

776
00:56:21,320 --> 00:56:25,480
had been a Soviet client state. That's incredible, Okay, And

777
00:56:26,920 --> 00:56:31,079
it's uh, this is a very delicate minuet. And something

778
00:56:31,119 --> 00:56:34,559
we covered earlier in the series is that you know, Garbachew,

779
00:56:34,760 --> 00:56:39,000
whatever people can say about him, and I know a

780
00:56:39,039 --> 00:56:41,840
lot of patriotic Russian guys like like hate him, and

781
00:56:42,239 --> 00:56:44,559
I'm sure if I was Russian and I I had

782
00:56:44,559 --> 00:56:47,760
have strong feelings abound him. Two. Like, I'm not saying

783
00:56:47,800 --> 00:56:50,000
that's misguided. It's not for me to say that it's

784
00:56:50,039 --> 00:56:55,239
their country and it's their culture. But what I will

785
00:56:55,280 --> 00:56:58,960
say is this, and what I do think I'm entirely

786
00:56:59,039 --> 00:57:02,519
qualified to say, a Gorchov wasn't just this kind of

787
00:57:03,000 --> 00:57:05,599
He wasn't just a cipher. He wasn't a stooge. You know,

788
00:57:05,639 --> 00:57:10,000
he wasn't just he wasn't some myrionette just kinda you know,

789
00:57:11,119 --> 00:57:16,480
stumbling into poor policy decision after poor policy decision and

790
00:57:16,559 --> 00:57:19,400
being like a letter around by by the Bush White House.

791
00:57:19,440 --> 00:57:22,280
That's not true at all. And that's one of the

792
00:57:22,280 --> 00:57:25,719
reasons why he was you know, basically sandbag and removed

793
00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:31,199
from office you know, by in part by by Washington.

794
00:57:32,920 --> 00:57:34,599
So there's no it was not what again is there

795
00:57:34,639 --> 00:57:37,880
was not some guarantee that that that Grushoff would have

796
00:57:37,960 --> 00:57:40,760
equiesced to this. But also even if Grozov had been

797
00:57:40,960 --> 00:57:42,920
you know, a cipher in the order of what I described,

798
00:57:44,760 --> 00:57:47,719
there was still, ah, there was still the remainder of

799
00:57:47,760 --> 00:57:50,760
the party apparatus. There was you know, a hardline element

800
00:57:50,840 --> 00:57:54,599
that you know, had to be placated. You know, there's

801
00:57:54,639 --> 00:57:57,400
the people who became uh, you know, the the Yelts

802
00:57:57,440 --> 00:58:01,440
infection that you know, which is complicated because Yelson in

803
00:58:01,480 --> 00:58:03,239
a lot of ways was that he was he was

804
00:58:03,320 --> 00:58:06,159
exactly that he was a cipher, but he but he

805
00:58:06,199 --> 00:58:10,719
too was accountable to people within the Soviet apparatus, particularly

806
00:58:11,079 --> 00:58:16,679
you know, decision makers within the national security apparatus, which

807
00:58:16,760 --> 00:58:21,159
is which, as we've established in concrete policy terms, had

808
00:58:21,199 --> 00:58:26,360
outside cloud and power, you know, even even more so

809
00:58:26,400 --> 00:58:29,000
than than in the United States. That that kind of

810
00:58:29,039 --> 00:58:34,920
the peak of the kind of the peak of uh

811
00:58:35,440 --> 00:58:41,559
of Cold War hostilities, you know, So it's that that's

812
00:58:41,599 --> 00:58:45,519
got to be acknowledged both. You know, it's an indicator

813
00:58:45,559 --> 00:58:51,599
of Horss effectiveness again within within the bounds of you know,

814
00:58:51,639 --> 00:58:55,239
the policy decision, the policy challenges on the table, and

815
00:58:55,519 --> 00:58:59,440
the hospital decisions rendered they're in but also of Bush

816
00:58:59,480 --> 00:59:03,679
forty one, his ability to finesse uh this UH stuff.

817
00:59:03,719 --> 00:59:06,599
And I know, I know again I can't. I apologize

818
00:59:06,679 --> 00:59:09,639
very sincerely for with the fact that it was my

819
00:59:09,760 --> 00:59:12,519
machine that you know, has screwed up connection or whatever

820
00:59:12,639 --> 00:59:17,760
last time. And so forgive me again if I'm repeating

821
00:59:17,760 --> 00:59:22,119
this myself. But another thing that I think has to

822
00:59:22,119 --> 00:59:24,760
be acknowledged is is that I'm saying was a more

823
00:59:24,800 --> 00:59:32,719
complicated figure than is often acknowledged too. He really was,

824
00:59:33,039 --> 00:59:38,079
and some of the things he did that at the

825
00:59:38,159 --> 00:59:43,760
time spun as being you know, just just fool's errors,

826
00:59:43,840 --> 00:59:48,519
or you know, him being cast as is simply nothing

827
00:59:48,599 --> 00:59:52,559
more than a tinpot dictator who is more prone to

828
00:59:52,639 --> 00:59:55,000
who's who was less risk averse than than most of them.

829
00:59:55,679 --> 00:59:59,320
That's really that's really not the case either. There's a

830
00:59:59,360 --> 01:00:05,159
reason why Soviet relationship with Iraq was always troubled for

831
01:00:05,280 --> 01:00:11,599
a time. UH. The UH this the Iraqi the Iraqi

832
01:00:11,639 --> 01:00:17,679
diplomatic UH mission was uh was was was banned from

833
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:21,840
East Berlin because uh they taken it upon themselves, uh

834
01:00:22,480 --> 01:00:25,480
to uh one opportunity presented itself to murder people that

835
01:00:25,559 --> 01:00:29,159
they they wanted dead, like other Iraqi's. I mean like

836
01:00:29,199 --> 01:00:33,559
there's this one Iraqi Communist party functionary and uh Iraqi

837
01:00:33,599 --> 01:00:36,760
intelligence under light aotgomatic cover literally threw him off a

838
01:00:36,840 --> 01:00:41,800
roof in East Berlin. There was some there's some student

839
01:00:41,880 --> 01:00:46,400
that dissident type who uh was was cozy with uh,

840
01:00:46,920 --> 01:00:50,760
you know, uh the communists, but who was uh, you know,

841
01:00:50,840 --> 01:00:56,719
an anti Saddam Zelat and uh some Iraqi's uh pulled

842
01:00:56,760 --> 01:00:58,360
up next to him when he was, you know, on

843
01:00:58,440 --> 01:01:02,400
foot around Pearl Marx's alley. He pulled him into a car.

844
01:01:02,880 --> 01:01:07,000
He disappeared, and then he washed up on a river bank,

845
01:01:07,280 --> 01:01:10,079
you know, with evidence of extreme torture and all kinds

846
01:01:10,119 --> 01:01:13,119
of horror mutilation, you know, having having been dead for

847
01:01:13,199 --> 01:01:17,360
weeks and and in your stores somewhere. So finally, like finally,

848
01:01:17,760 --> 01:01:21,880
you know, finally like you're not you're not doing this anymore,

849
01:01:22,280 --> 01:01:25,880
you know, you're you're gone. And just the fact that

850
01:01:26,559 --> 01:01:36,159
the bath Thats were you know, actively actively at war

851
01:01:36,239 --> 01:01:38,079
with the Communists in some basic way. I mean I'm

852
01:01:38,079 --> 01:01:42,000
talking about like within Iraq, as they were consolidating their

853
01:01:42,199 --> 01:01:45,800
monopoly on power. I mean, that's that that that that's

854
01:01:45,840 --> 01:01:52,679
that axiomatically caused tension. But nevertheless, Iraq was a The

855
01:01:52,719 --> 01:01:57,280
Soviet Union never had a true Arab client state. The

856
01:01:57,280 --> 01:02:01,800
only communist Arab state was South Yemen, the short lived

857
01:02:02,559 --> 01:02:06,320
South Yeman East State, and it was short lived, not

858
01:02:06,519 --> 01:02:09,840
because it didn't have legitimacy. Something that's fascinating to me

859
01:02:09,920 --> 01:02:15,480
now in in Uh, in the Yemen War, there is

860
01:02:15,559 --> 01:02:21,239
a faction down there that is uh Is uh I

861
01:02:21,719 --> 01:02:24,199
identify as it as like the South, so that they

862
01:02:24,199 --> 01:02:28,719
identify as like the legacy of the South Yemen Armed Forces.

863
01:02:28,920 --> 01:02:30,639
You know, when they're they're very much like it's kind

864
01:02:30,639 --> 01:02:33,960
of like post Marxists, but but but but radically left

865
01:02:33,960 --> 01:02:37,400
wing militia, you know. And I mean I find that fascinating.

866
01:02:37,519 --> 01:02:42,079
But my point is that, uh, the Soviets could not

867
01:02:42,159 --> 01:02:45,599
pick and choose. You know, the Middle East was not Africa,

868
01:02:45,679 --> 01:02:49,719
the Middle East was not Asia. They certainly wasn't Latin America.

869
01:02:50,119 --> 01:02:52,159
You know, they couldn't pick and choose, you know, like

870
01:02:52,199 --> 01:02:56,519
what Arabs Arab state they want to do them. You know,

871
01:02:56,559 --> 01:02:59,480
they want to do a give privilege, a position, and

872
01:02:59,519 --> 01:03:04,639
in terms of UH material support and and UH informal

873
01:03:04,719 --> 01:03:09,159
client diage. You know, they like communism just was not

874
01:03:09,480 --> 01:03:13,079
taking rude in the Near East, you know, just wasn't

875
01:03:14,159 --> 01:03:18,119
even when it had real currency in in other theaters

876
01:03:18,400 --> 01:03:22,639
at comparable stages and development and everything else. So you know,

877
01:03:24,559 --> 01:03:31,559
Saddam also we talked about the situation of Iraq going

878
01:03:31,599 --> 01:03:37,719
into the Iran Iraq War of nineteen eighty. The Iraqi

879
01:03:37,800 --> 01:03:41,159
said signed the Lgers Agreement with the Shah in nineteen

880
01:03:41,159 --> 01:03:45,920
seventy five. This had to do with you know, territorial

881
01:03:45,960 --> 01:03:48,360
disputes and other things, you know, typical kind of uh

882
01:03:48,880 --> 01:03:52,039
the typical kinds of things that you know, provoke interstate

883
01:03:52,159 --> 01:03:54,639
rivalry or more. It's kind of acted as like a

884
01:03:54,679 --> 01:03:59,559
catalyst or like a superficial and immediate rationalization where within

885
01:03:59,599 --> 01:04:02,000
paradise times that you know, there's already like a mutable

886
01:04:02,039 --> 01:04:07,679
hostility between state actors. I Ran in Iraq have always

887
01:04:07,960 --> 01:04:12,360
kind of been desperately at odds, okay, in in political terms,

888
01:04:12,440 --> 01:04:15,519
you know, uh, I Ran its rarely at war like

889
01:04:15,639 --> 01:04:18,440
open war, but I mean they're constantly at at at

890
01:04:18,480 --> 01:04:23,960
war and a and and you know a uh in

891
01:04:24,039 --> 01:04:26,840
a subtle and and and sort of hidden capacity, you know,

892
01:04:26,920 --> 01:04:31,800
unconventional capacity, but nonetheless uh, you know, they've always been

893
01:04:31,840 --> 01:04:37,760
at odds with Iraq in the modern UH era, post

894
01:04:39,440 --> 01:04:47,039
Ottoman era after World War One. But the the and

895
01:04:47,199 --> 01:04:51,679
and as you know that that's not entirely without objective

896
01:04:51,840 --> 01:04:56,800
uh rationale. Like we talked about the reason why uh

897
01:04:57,079 --> 01:05:01,239
the Israelis, like the the American States depart meant you know,

898
01:05:01,400 --> 01:05:04,960
Zionist all and sundry as well as uh you know,

899
01:05:06,679 --> 01:05:09,800
formerly Arab nationalist types like the Bathists, you know, like

900
01:05:09,880 --> 01:05:13,599
Arabist types and what remains that element today, but also

901
01:05:14,599 --> 01:05:22,559
you know, UH radical you know, Salafi types. They they

902
01:05:23,360 --> 01:05:28,840
the two kind of poles of of of of of

903
01:05:29,880 --> 01:05:33,119
hard power, and the Near East has always been Turkey

904
01:05:33,119 --> 01:05:36,440
and Iran, you know, and the Arabs kind of find

905
01:05:36,440 --> 01:05:42,159
themselves between these these uh, the the the these alien elements,

906
01:05:42,320 --> 01:05:49,719
you know, and when the UH as Islam became this

907
01:05:49,800 --> 01:05:56,320
kind of animating catalyst most remarkably, UH one you know,

908
01:05:56,400 --> 01:05:59,800
for for for Sunies obviously was uh, you know, the

909
01:06:00,159 --> 01:06:05,039
for uh the jihad against uh, the Soviet Union and

910
01:06:05,039 --> 01:06:09,159
communism in the midst of the assault in Afghanistan. But

911
01:06:09,239 --> 01:06:12,960
the truth the first true Islamic state was Iran, and

912
01:06:13,039 --> 01:06:16,000
the fact that the fact that it was a non

913
01:06:16,079 --> 01:06:23,320
Era but non Sunni culture that uh produced the first

914
01:06:23,440 --> 01:06:27,639
truly Islamic revolution. That was remarkable, but it was also

915
01:06:29,039 --> 01:06:31,360
it was it was also it was also alarming. You know,

916
01:06:31,360 --> 01:06:35,199
it meant that, it meant that, it meant that power

917
01:06:35,280 --> 01:06:41,239
bases within Islam, within the faith itself, and particularly like

918
01:06:41,239 --> 01:06:43,679
you know, revolutionary practice they're in. You know, it had

919
01:06:43,800 --> 01:06:46,920
had shifted. You know, there was a seize of the

920
01:06:46,960 --> 01:06:53,559
Grand Mosque in nineteen seventy nine in uh In, in

921
01:06:53,599 --> 01:06:58,639
Saudi Arabia, and that was impactful too. But again much

922
01:06:58,679 --> 01:07:01,199
of that mighty animated the kinds of guys who you know,

923
01:07:01,239 --> 01:07:04,760
went to join the Holy War against the Soviet Union.

924
01:07:04,920 --> 01:07:07,159
You know that that wasn't the House of Saud wasn't

925
01:07:07,199 --> 01:07:10,920
about to collapse, you know, like it wasn't. It didn't.

926
01:07:11,079 --> 01:07:14,039
It didn't spark this kind of this like kind of

927
01:07:14,039 --> 01:07:19,199
wildfire tendency, you know that to provoke. Soon he's under arms,

928
01:07:19,239 --> 01:07:22,079
to duplicate what happened in Iran, you know, like nothing

929
01:07:22,199 --> 01:07:31,079
like that. It and not without not without because you know,

930
01:07:31,119 --> 01:07:38,239
Iraq as a as a majority Shia state, and you

931
01:07:38,280 --> 01:07:41,519
know the Shia minority globally within is Lam, but they're

932
01:07:41,599 --> 01:07:48,239
they're extraordinarily potent minority. And that's that. That's there. The

933
01:07:48,480 --> 01:07:51,639
sha heartland is is really Iraq in the Arab world,

934
01:07:51,800 --> 01:07:55,400
you know, I mean in terms of raw population. Okay,

935
01:07:57,000 --> 01:08:01,440
you know the uh, the the Aqi Bath Party, they

936
01:08:01,440 --> 01:08:03,639
were they were ecumenical in a real sense. You know,

937
01:08:03,719 --> 01:08:13,880
Tarika's Ease himself was a Christian under the Bath Party

938
01:08:13,960 --> 01:08:17,119
was a Christian, a core of of a of Arab

939
01:08:17,199 --> 01:08:19,760
Bathism in Iraq and Syria. It's a totally et thing,

940
01:08:20,520 --> 01:08:22,199
you know. It was. Uh, it was. It was a

941
01:08:22,279 --> 01:08:31,520
Sunium political culture, all of these things. Uh, there was

942
01:08:31,560 --> 01:08:36,600
an internal logic strategically, I mean to uh Iraq UH

943
01:08:36,960 --> 01:08:44,239
preemptively assaulting Iran and uh Saiddam H. If you read

944
01:08:44,319 --> 01:08:49,000
the notes from a Saddam speaking to his war council

945
01:08:49,399 --> 01:08:52,039
or what would have been like the Bath uh national

946
01:08:52,079 --> 01:08:59,000
security Council, it's equivalent. You can tell that it's not

947
01:08:59,279 --> 01:09:06,039
a decision that's being made flippantly. And UH. The immediate catalyst,

948
01:09:06,119 --> 01:09:08,840
you know, as we said, like the the Algiers agreement

949
01:09:08,880 --> 01:09:14,439
was signed with the Shah. Tehran immediately declared at the

950
01:09:14,520 --> 01:09:17,399
revolution that you know, we're we're not we're not bound

951
01:09:17,439 --> 01:09:20,600
by any any treaties that you know, we're signed by

952
01:09:20,600 --> 01:09:24,039
the by the imperialist government. You know, that's that's over with.

953
01:09:26,520 --> 01:09:30,159
So it was, uh, it's not as if a conciliatory

954
01:09:30,239 --> 01:09:35,880
posture was being struck with, you know, with with Bagdad

955
01:09:36,319 --> 01:09:43,920
it and uh, really the tenor of of Saddam's appeal

956
01:09:44,000 --> 01:09:46,520
to the War Council is, you know, if we let

957
01:09:46,520 --> 01:09:50,119
this go now, we're essentially allowing ourselves to be extorted,

958
01:09:50,960 --> 01:09:55,880
and if we're gonna set, if the president being set

959
01:09:56,039 --> 01:10:00,680
you know, of of at first impression with the revolutionary

960
01:10:00,680 --> 01:10:03,439
regime in Tehran is that, you know, we are available

961
01:10:03,479 --> 01:10:06,840
to be extorted. You know, He's like, how how would

962
01:10:06,880 --> 01:10:09,279
that look? And how would that look to the Arab people,

963
01:10:09,600 --> 01:10:13,159
you know, not just in Iraq but theater wide, you know,

964
01:10:13,279 --> 01:10:17,039
and it's also well how would that look to the

965
01:10:17,039 --> 01:10:21,560
Soviet Union too? Frankly, again, despite the despite the their

966
01:10:21,640 --> 01:10:30,359
kind of troubled friendship, it wasn't genuine concord of necessity,

967
01:10:30,479 --> 01:10:38,319
and you know, the uh, the Iraq, Iraq needed Soviet

968
01:10:38,319 --> 01:10:43,880
material support or to remain a viable military power. And

969
01:10:45,319 --> 01:10:49,039
if confidence was lost, uh In Moscow's confidence was lost,

970
01:10:50,199 --> 01:10:52,239
you know, they simply would have looked elsewhere. Admittedly it

971
01:10:52,279 --> 01:10:57,159
was a shallow pool of potential clients, but nevertheless, uh,

972
01:10:57,640 --> 01:11:01,000
you know, there was precedent for that. The s IS

973
01:11:01,000 --> 01:11:06,319
didn't just desperately continue to sustain regimes that weren't viable

974
01:11:06,560 --> 01:11:08,840
or that or that would not be able when when

975
01:11:09,279 --> 01:11:14,000
when critical circumstances emerged, uh, you know, be able to

976
01:11:14,039 --> 01:11:17,439
mobilize and and be able to be able to wage war,

977
01:11:17,680 --> 01:11:21,520
you know, and in uh In at least a nominally

978
01:11:21,560 --> 01:11:26,439
effective capacity. So this had you know, I raised that

979
01:11:26,520 --> 01:11:31,319
because again, like it's the people people claim, because you know,

980
01:11:31,359 --> 01:11:35,600
they kind of selectively choose to cite like late Iran

981
01:11:35,800 --> 01:11:39,079
like war like propaganda of you know, out of Bagdad,

982
01:11:39,119 --> 01:11:41,560
where you know, they're they're emphasizing that, you know, the

983
01:11:41,560 --> 01:11:44,720
the Iranians or a different race. You know, they're they're there,

984
01:11:44,720 --> 01:11:46,960
they're Persians and their series and they're not like us,

985
01:11:48,520 --> 01:11:51,279
and saying like Saddam was just like this madman who

986
01:11:51,359 --> 01:11:53,520
just invaded Iran for no reason, or or he did

987
01:11:53,560 --> 01:11:56,199
some out of you know, out of out of uh,

988
01:11:56,600 --> 01:11:59,479
you know, kind of quasi racialists, like you know, tendency

989
01:11:59,520 --> 01:12:01,880
is a bigot tree or uh or because of like

990
01:12:01,920 --> 01:12:07,279
tech fury, hostility to the Shia. I mean, I that's

991
01:12:07,319 --> 01:12:10,600
really not true. And I mean whatever, everybody is an

992
01:12:10,680 --> 01:12:19,000
armchair general, you know, so it and nobody, nobody chooses

993
01:12:19,039 --> 01:12:24,800
to treat these things, you know, as they as as

994
01:12:24,840 --> 01:12:27,520
decisions would have been rendered, like in the epoch and

995
01:12:28,279 --> 01:12:31,720
at the critical moment of decision where uh, you know,

996
01:12:31,960 --> 01:12:36,439
the the the awareness of the situation, you know, would

997
01:12:36,439 --> 01:12:39,840
have been restricted to what was then a parent and emergent.

998
01:12:41,279 --> 01:12:42,760
And then I'm not saying much to I was like

999
01:12:42,800 --> 01:12:47,199
a good executive or something, but I'm saying that he was.

1000
01:12:48,680 --> 01:12:51,000
He was, he was more confident than his acknowledged and

1001
01:12:51,960 --> 01:12:57,000
he was in a very unenviable, unenviable position. I think

1002
01:12:57,039 --> 01:12:59,720
at some point it was inevitable Iraq would find itself

1003
01:12:59,760 --> 01:13:01,560
at or. But that's more kind of a it's kind

1004
01:13:01,560 --> 01:13:12,720
of a more complicated and wider topic. It's like getting

1005
01:13:12,760 --> 01:13:16,840
back to the getting back to our topic. I means

1006
01:13:16,920 --> 01:13:19,199
it ran back were a lot because it's it's important

1007
01:13:19,279 --> 01:13:23,760
for for all kinds of reasons of context. Really not

1008
01:13:23,760 --> 01:13:25,680
not really not just to the politics than your East,

1009
01:13:25,720 --> 01:13:31,359
but relating to the Cold War, relating to uh, you know,

1010
01:13:31,520 --> 01:13:37,960
uh the sectarian hatred and darl Islam, you know, relating

1011
01:13:38,000 --> 01:13:43,239
to uh, the revolution and revolution in military affairs, the

1012
01:13:43,399 --> 01:13:48,159
reemergence of chemical weapons being utilized and applied, you know,

1013
01:13:48,279 --> 01:13:53,800
like the tactical capacity on the bail field. It's really uh,

1014
01:13:54,279 --> 01:14:01,520
it's really fascinating. But m h getting back to mister Bushford. One,

1015
01:14:03,199 --> 01:14:09,319
what bush did immediately after after the Iraqi invasion at

1016
01:14:09,359 --> 01:14:16,960
Kuwait in August nineteen ninety On August twentieth, he issued

1017
01:14:17,079 --> 01:14:24,159
US National Security Directive Number forty five. Okay, the relevant

1018
01:14:24,159 --> 01:14:32,279
parts stated and I'm quoting here unless indicated otherwise, US

1019
01:14:32,279 --> 01:14:35,520
interests in the Persian go for a vital to national security.

1020
01:14:35,840 --> 01:14:38,520
These interests include access to oil and the security instability

1021
01:14:38,520 --> 01:14:41,760
a key friendly states in the region. The United States

1022
01:14:41,760 --> 01:14:44,279
will defenditive fight interest in the area throughout through the

1023
01:14:44,359 --> 01:14:47,000
use of the US military force, if necessary and appropriate,

1024
01:14:47,359 --> 01:14:49,720
against any power with interests in nimical to our own.

1025
01:14:51,239 --> 01:14:54,680
Going off the record, this is important to me at

1026
01:14:54,760 --> 01:14:56,800
least because you know how, like the Michael moritypes, they're

1027
01:14:56,800 --> 01:14:59,640
constantly talking about how our politicam at least is driven

1028
01:14:59,680 --> 01:15:01,840
his exclus say, we quote bite oil, which doesn't make

1029
01:15:01,840 --> 01:15:04,279
any sense. But it's also like they act like it's

1030
01:15:04,319 --> 01:15:07,960
some kind of secret or something that you know, American

1031
01:15:08,000 --> 01:15:12,720
executives have pretended, like you know, energy policy and domination

1032
01:15:12,840 --> 01:15:15,840
of of key oil reserves in the Near East by

1033
01:15:15,920 --> 01:15:18,800
hostile powers, they've always always been really above board that

1034
01:15:18,960 --> 01:15:23,119
you know, these things play into strategic decision making, you know,

1035
01:15:23,159 --> 01:15:25,279
so I've always like wondered about that, like why that

1036
01:15:25,840 --> 01:15:28,600
I've tryed like idiots. And it's not like I had

1037
01:15:28,640 --> 01:15:30,720
nothing nice to say about Bush forty three. You're about

1038
01:15:30,720 --> 01:15:32,319
the Iraq War. You know. It's not like I was

1039
01:15:32,359 --> 01:15:35,079
sitting here like cheerleading medling in the Middle East, but

1040
01:15:35,159 --> 01:15:37,760
like they actually was in Trump card, it's about oil man.

1041
01:15:37,840 --> 01:15:40,279
It's like, what does that even mean? Like if you

1042
01:15:40,319 --> 01:15:42,520
wanted to, if you had to say, it's what's gonna

1043
01:15:42,520 --> 01:15:46,399
act like some like nineteenth century uh like empire and

1044
01:15:46,479 --> 01:15:52,000
just go around grabbing you know, rubber plantations and petroleum fields.

1045
01:15:52,000 --> 01:15:54,279
You know, why not invade Venezuela, you know, like why

1046
01:15:54,560 --> 01:15:55,720
why you know, you don't need to go the way

1047
01:15:55,720 --> 01:15:59,239
to Iraq like steal oil or whatever. But I digress

1048
01:16:01,399 --> 01:16:05,159
the UH. But what's significant about National Lecurity Drug to

1049
01:16:05,199 --> 01:16:07,680
forty five is that even as the as the Cold

1050
01:16:07,680 --> 01:16:11,600
War was ending, it was based Bush was reiterating that

1051
01:16:11,920 --> 01:16:14,119
the Carter doctrine, you know, like you' saying, the Carter

1052
01:16:14,199 --> 01:16:16,880
doctrine is still operative. He was signaling to the Soviet

1053
01:16:16,960 --> 01:16:20,439
Union too, because obviously it wasn't clear like what like

1054
01:16:21,239 --> 01:16:24,199
how they were gonna how Moscow was gonna respond, you know,

1055
01:16:24,319 --> 01:16:27,319
moving forward, and it wasn't clear at all. You know.

1056
01:16:27,520 --> 01:16:33,279
It's and in a roundabout way, had UH, you know,

1057
01:16:33,359 --> 01:16:37,039
had the Supreme Soviet or had the UH or had

1058
01:16:37,159 --> 01:16:39,560
UH you know, kind of the Inner Party specifically that

1059
01:16:39,680 --> 01:16:44,680
which was tethered to the Ministry of Defense, had they

1060
01:16:44,760 --> 01:16:48,239
kind of gone into a revolt against UH Peristroica, they

1061
01:16:48,399 --> 01:16:53,520
they could have utilized, you know, with America's UH looming

1062
01:16:53,720 --> 01:16:56,880
UH mass intervention in the Middle East as as their

1063
01:16:56,960 --> 01:17:00,399
catalysts to kind of bring down the Gorbachev regime. Circle

1064
01:17:00,439 --> 01:17:05,119
the wagons that were and that that's a fascinating counterfactual.

1065
01:17:05,399 --> 01:17:07,319
But the fact that it didn't happen again is a

1066
01:17:08,239 --> 01:17:10,319
is a credit to Bush what he wont his ability

1067
01:17:10,359 --> 01:17:14,520
to finesse in in a in a bona fide way.

1068
01:17:15,279 --> 01:17:18,880
And again the fact that like that that Gorbachev was

1069
01:17:18,920 --> 01:17:22,039
able to pull that off on the other side, in

1070
01:17:22,920 --> 01:17:25,319
in concord with Bush is I mean, it's a testament

1071
01:17:25,359 --> 01:17:29,840
to the garbage shows frankly, like genius is a politician.

1072
01:17:30,439 --> 01:17:32,560
You know, if the man was a fool or a cipher,

1073
01:17:32,720 --> 01:17:36,680
that he would never have been able to accomplish that.

1074
01:17:40,199 --> 01:17:46,159
The Uh, I'm not I'm not gonna quote verbatim because

1075
01:17:46,239 --> 01:17:51,439
that's it's it's redundant that borybody to tears. But what's

1076
01:17:51,479 --> 01:17:55,680
fascinating is like the remainder of a of the declaration

1077
01:17:57,199 --> 01:18:01,000
Bush sites United Nations Security Council Resolute six sixty is

1078
01:18:01,039 --> 01:18:05,239
sixty sixty two as a as an authority for intervention,

1079
01:18:07,199 --> 01:18:11,359
you know, which UH was like at the court according

1080
01:18:11,399 --> 01:18:14,039
the letter of the law, like such that it can

1081
01:18:14,119 --> 01:18:16,560
even be said that, you know, war and peace decisions

1082
01:18:16,600 --> 01:18:18,439
are bound by the law and in the way that

1083
01:18:18,640 --> 01:18:21,720
you know could be said stated to be, you know,

1084
01:18:21,760 --> 01:18:25,439
within the borders of of UH of a sovereign dominion.

1085
01:18:25,880 --> 01:18:29,000
But uh, you know Bush Bush had all the authority

1086
01:18:29,039 --> 01:18:32,359
he needed from Article two, you know, from the President

1087
01:18:32,399 --> 01:18:35,760
of the Carter doctrine, and so long as Congress was

1088
01:18:35,840 --> 01:18:39,760
willing to you know, was was willing to float the

1089
01:18:39,840 --> 01:18:45,560
bill and not otherwise you know, revoke uh, his ability

1090
01:18:45,600 --> 01:18:47,800
to see the policy through. I mean that that's that's

1091
01:18:47,840 --> 01:18:50,640
the only authority Bush needed. But he was big. He

1092
01:18:50,760 --> 01:18:54,560
was very much proceeding as a diplomat in in in

1093
01:18:55,000 --> 01:18:58,840
in prosecuting this war. And I say that in the

1094
01:18:58,960 --> 01:19:04,600
most positive terms there are you know, it's just, uh,

1095
01:19:04,640 --> 01:19:07,479
it's it's noteworthy because most executives would not have done that,

1096
01:19:07,760 --> 01:19:14,439
even ones who were really kind of uh, even some

1097
01:19:14,520 --> 01:19:18,479
of Bush's successors and Clinton liberal types, they wouldn't have

1098
01:19:18,600 --> 01:19:21,560
characterized it that way. You know, even if even if

1099
01:19:21,560 --> 01:19:23,800
they wanted to, even if even if they wanted to

1100
01:19:23,920 --> 01:19:26,479
kind of finess, what they were doing is as in

1101
01:19:26,560 --> 01:19:29,479
the interest of you know, this burgening global community or whatever.

1102
01:19:29,640 --> 01:19:34,159
So this is very interesting with within the for the

1103
01:19:34,319 --> 01:19:36,960
time and the moment within that epoch, and for what

1104
01:19:37,239 --> 01:19:41,760
Bush aimed to accomplish, that was absolutely correct strategy. I

1105
01:19:41,880 --> 01:19:45,079
just find it really interesting. I mean, this this may

1106
01:19:45,239 --> 01:19:47,439
like bore some people to death, but it's it's it's

1107
01:19:47,439 --> 01:19:52,039
fundamentally important to the topic. And it's also it's it's

1108
01:19:52,079 --> 01:19:55,000
important just in more global terms, I figuratively and literally

1109
01:19:56,600 --> 01:20:02,000
again what the Bush forty one people wanted to see

1110
01:20:02,119 --> 01:20:06,720
through they wanted to Uh, you got to look at

1111
01:20:06,760 --> 01:20:09,880
the Cold War as as among other things, you know,

1112
01:20:11,119 --> 01:20:14,680
in structural terms, not just parwa political ones. You know,

1113
01:20:14,800 --> 01:20:17,920
the uh, there never was a there never was a

1114
01:20:18,039 --> 01:20:21,479
formal peace treaty signed with Germany. You know, that's one

1115
01:20:21,479 --> 01:20:24,319
of the reasons why you know, like the two Germanys

1116
01:20:24,319 --> 01:20:29,119
were able to exist in perpetuity, in apparent perpetuity after

1117
01:20:29,159 --> 01:20:32,920
the war. What Bush was aiming to do, he was

1118
01:20:32,920 --> 01:20:39,119
aiming to create configure. Uh, this this globalized, truly globalized

1119
01:20:39,159 --> 01:20:42,319
polity as an envisioned by you know, the New Dealers

1120
01:20:42,399 --> 01:20:45,720
and to a lesser degree, people like Truman, you know,

1121
01:20:45,840 --> 01:20:51,840
and see that through to fruition, like actual fruition wherein

1122
01:20:52,039 --> 01:20:55,279
you know, military action would essentially other than you know,

1123
01:20:56,039 --> 01:20:59,159
things that truly are you know, kind of like postichomatized

1124
01:20:59,239 --> 01:21:02,720
manners of like civil unrest within the you know, at

1125
01:21:02,840 --> 01:21:06,800
at at the local and and and and downscaled level,

1126
01:21:07,640 --> 01:21:10,880
you know, other than other than those obvious exceptions, you know,

1127
01:21:11,039 --> 01:21:14,199
any military action would would be carried out through the

1128
01:21:14,319 --> 01:21:18,680
United Nations Security Council, you know, where the permanent uh

1129
01:21:19,800 --> 01:21:22,319
UN Security Council you know, would be kind of like

1130
01:21:22,359 --> 01:21:28,279
the higher House, you know, or the or the cabinet

1131
01:21:28,319 --> 01:21:30,800
of a world government. You know, the General Assembly would

1132
01:21:30,800 --> 01:21:34,079
be kind of like you know, the the World Congress,

1133
01:21:34,239 --> 01:21:36,720
the World House of Representatives, the World House of Commons,

1134
01:21:37,279 --> 01:21:40,159
you know, and you have you have a rotating executive,

1135
01:21:40,520 --> 01:21:42,199
you know, who's more sort of like a global prime

1136
01:21:42,279 --> 01:21:45,159
minister than a than a president, because real power lies

1137
01:21:45,199 --> 01:21:47,640
in the Security Council. But this is what Bush was

1138
01:21:47,680 --> 01:21:50,359
aiming to do, you know. And however, however we feel

1139
01:21:50,359 --> 01:21:52,880
about that. The degree to which this was just like

1140
01:21:53,000 --> 01:21:57,319
utterly pissed on and sabotaged, you know, from the Clinton

1141
01:21:57,319 --> 01:22:04,640
administration onwards in favor of the like anarchy is insane.

1142
01:22:04,960 --> 01:22:09,319
It's completely insane. And what's what's more insane is that

1143
01:22:09,439 --> 01:22:12,840
nobody talks about it. It's it's as if it's never happened,

1144
01:22:13,199 --> 01:22:19,640
but that the current situations, uh, the current strategic situation

1145
01:22:19,800 --> 01:22:21,760
is just some kind of accident of fate or like

1146
01:22:21,920 --> 01:22:26,720
it's something just like some immutable development because other states

1147
01:22:26,760 --> 01:22:29,239
that aren't reasonable or something. It's this is incredible that

1148
01:22:31,079 --> 01:22:36,920
that people that people feel this way. I do want

1149
01:22:36,920 --> 01:22:41,279
to cite a couple more points of the memo. Those

1150
01:22:41,399 --> 01:22:44,079
are and I quote push stated incident, you know, to

1151
01:22:44,199 --> 01:22:50,159
explicating why intervention UH to eject Iraqi and quoit constantly

1152
01:22:50,159 --> 01:22:54,279
to vital interest quote. Much of the world is is

1153
01:22:54,720 --> 01:23:00,279
even more dependent on Iraqi oil. Much of the RULD

1154
01:23:00,359 --> 01:23:02,760
is depending on Iraqi oil and is highly vulnerable to

1155
01:23:02,800 --> 01:23:07,079
Iraqi threats. To minimize any impact that oil flow reductions

1156
01:23:07,119 --> 01:23:09,920
from Iraq and what we'll have in the world's economy

1157
01:23:11,399 --> 01:23:13,399
will be over policy as well. Producing nations do what

1158
01:23:13,439 --> 01:23:16,119
they can to increased production offs at these losses. And

1159
01:23:16,520 --> 01:23:22,560
that's important too because again, the the OPEC embargo with

1160
01:23:22,640 --> 01:23:26,000
seventy three, like America coming to terms America in the

1161
01:23:26,079 --> 01:23:31,680
UK coming to terms of the House of sod that UH,

1162
01:23:32,680 --> 01:23:36,880
that that that created a a reliable kind of configuration

1163
01:23:37,359 --> 01:23:42,760
we're in. Like all the major petroleum UH producers, you know,

1164
01:23:42,800 --> 01:23:48,399
they had invested interests in in in in proceeding peaceably,

1165
01:23:48,680 --> 01:23:52,960
and they were afforded you know, limited ability to to

1166
01:23:53,600 --> 01:23:56,119
you know, to carry out a price fixing regime, which

1167
01:23:56,159 --> 01:24:00,079
they do to the day. But the fact wasn't that know,

1168
01:24:00,199 --> 01:24:04,279
Iraqi oil is so important, or that you know anyone

1169
01:24:05,399 --> 01:24:08,960
or that Iraqi oil like funds anyone critical you know,

1170
01:24:09,680 --> 01:24:13,520
state actor or you know, constellation of things. It's that

1171
01:24:14,439 --> 01:24:20,720
it would where Iraq able to you know, attack another export, another,

1172
01:24:20,760 --> 01:24:27,159
another OPEC state and dictate regionally. You know what political

1173
01:24:27,359 --> 01:24:33,079
concessions would be required for continued access to Iraqi petroleum.

1174
01:24:34,319 --> 01:24:37,720
Even if America could maintain good offices, would Iraq no problem?

1175
01:24:38,279 --> 01:24:41,399
The other Arab states would not they've been able to

1176
01:24:42,319 --> 01:24:47,119
and that would have been profoundly destabilizing, just not just structurally.

1177
01:24:47,600 --> 01:24:49,560
I mean Saddam would have recognized that. I don't think

1178
01:24:49,560 --> 01:24:52,079
Saddam with some Marvel villain rubbing his hands together and saying,

1179
01:24:52,079 --> 01:24:54,439
you know, now I can extort money for oil. But

1180
01:24:54,680 --> 01:24:59,039
he recognized exactly what the structural implications of this were.

1181
01:25:00,000 --> 01:25:03,119
And I believe from like where the Iraqis were sitting,

1182
01:25:03,479 --> 01:25:05,760
like their idea was like, well, this needs to be

1183
01:25:05,840 --> 01:25:10,720
reconfigured anyway, you know why, and especially without the Soviet Union,

1184
01:25:11,000 --> 01:25:12,159
you know, it's like what are we just gonna let

1185
01:25:12,520 --> 01:25:15,479
is OPEC's gonna become kind of the this kind of

1186
01:25:15,560 --> 01:25:20,119
like Cooley, uh, this kind of like Cooley enterprise like

1187
01:25:20,640 --> 01:25:22,920
behold in the United States. You know, I don't think

1188
01:25:22,920 --> 01:25:25,439
I'm speculating too much here. You know again, I this

1189
01:25:25,600 --> 01:25:28,920
this becomes apparent like as you as you deep dive

1190
01:25:29,039 --> 01:25:32,760
into you know what the what the incentives were, and

1191
01:25:32,840 --> 01:25:38,159
the motives were, and the viewpoints were of the respective actors,

1192
01:25:38,479 --> 01:25:42,840
you know, like Era Ben and Western in the you know,

1193
01:25:43,760 --> 01:25:46,640
the occidental perspective versus the error perspective. It's like writ

1194
01:25:46,800 --> 01:25:48,680
large here in a lot of ways. Okay, like corny

1195
01:25:48,680 --> 01:25:53,439
as that might sound to people, but uh, moving on

1196
01:25:56,119 --> 01:26:02,680
the Bush was very he uh, he was very emphatic,

1197
01:26:04,560 --> 01:26:06,960
and not just for appearance sake, but in a real

1198
01:26:07,800 --> 01:26:11,520
kind of concrete capacity of a declaring that you know,

1199
01:26:11,840 --> 01:26:15,000
US forces and a sort of other elements. You know,

1200
01:26:15,039 --> 01:26:18,920
whether they're whether they're uh you know, whether they're British,

1201
01:26:18,960 --> 01:26:21,840
whether they're French, where they're Italian, whether it's whether we're

1202
01:26:22,079 --> 01:26:24,800
whether they we're talking about you know, Syrian forces and

1203
01:26:24,840 --> 01:26:29,960
Assyrians as Fesisad came heavy to support Bush. And I

1204
01:26:30,000 --> 01:26:33,600
mean that's another thing too, like after like like basically

1205
01:26:33,640 --> 01:26:36,960
America's best ally in the Middle East should be serious,

1206
01:26:37,079 --> 01:26:39,319
Like what's America been doing for twenty years like trying

1207
01:26:39,359 --> 01:26:44,279
to annihilate Syria. But uh Bush made it clear that,

1208
01:26:44,439 --> 01:26:48,359
you know, the coalition military element are guests in the

1209
01:26:48,479 --> 01:26:52,960
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia first and foremost. He included in

1210
01:26:53,039 --> 01:26:57,279
Saudi general officers in the decision making process, even if

1211
01:26:57,279 --> 01:26:59,239
it was just kind of like nominal in for appearance sake,

1212
01:26:59,239 --> 01:27:03,439
because these guys frankly didn't have the experience, you know,

1213
01:27:03,640 --> 01:27:08,800
to really to really bring command presence to bear. But

1214
01:27:10,359 --> 01:27:13,359
there were a lot of elements, including Osamov and Lauden himself,

1215
01:27:14,560 --> 01:27:20,319
who uh approached uh the royal family and said like

1216
01:27:20,479 --> 01:27:24,239
look like let me or let us you know, like

1217
01:27:24,479 --> 01:27:28,079
uh like raise an army of of the righteous as

1218
01:27:28,119 --> 01:27:31,479
we did to fight the communists, and like will and

1219
01:27:31,600 --> 01:27:34,720
will like eject uh, you know, the Iraqi army. Ourselves.

1220
01:27:34,760 --> 01:27:37,079
We don't need, you know, we don't we don't need,

1221
01:27:38,239 --> 01:27:40,880
we don't need, we don't we don't need infrails on

1222
01:27:40,960 --> 01:27:43,600
our on our soil, you know, and not just on

1223
01:27:43,720 --> 01:27:46,119
our soil, but on the soil we're like the profit tread,

1224
01:27:46,199 --> 01:27:48,880
you know, and we don't need you know. You know,

1225
01:27:48,960 --> 01:27:51,079
this is basically like a Jewish war and there you know,

1226
01:27:51,159 --> 01:27:53,760
it's become that way because it's it's not it's not

1227
01:27:53,880 --> 01:27:57,960
to liberate, you know, Moslims from from Bathist tyranny. It's

1228
01:27:58,000 --> 01:28:03,000
about you know, it's about monetary intrigues and power political

1229
01:28:03,119 --> 01:28:12,840
uh ambitions of of of Nonmuslims, and that could have

1230
01:28:12,880 --> 01:28:15,640
gotten traction. Not not with that, not with the House Asad,

1231
01:28:15,760 --> 01:28:17,720
but you better believe with the Arab street, you know.

1232
01:28:17,960 --> 01:28:21,880
So the a lot of the ridiculous kind of propaganda

1233
01:28:21,960 --> 01:28:25,000
that you know, the the like literally these like man

1234
01:28:25,079 --> 01:28:28,560
saanditing firms that were retained like you know, draft these

1235
01:28:28,600 --> 01:28:32,199
like atrocity stories and things. A lot of that that

1236
01:28:32,359 --> 01:28:36,359
wasn't just you know, for the sake of UH, you know,

1237
01:28:36,479 --> 01:28:38,840
kind of a stirring up war fever in America like

1238
01:28:39,000 --> 01:28:41,760
that was really already kind of bourboning that I believe

1239
01:28:41,840 --> 01:28:44,880
that was for that was that was for the court

1240
01:28:44,920 --> 01:28:49,399
of world opinion and particularly for UH form you know,

1241
01:28:49,560 --> 01:28:54,119
the UH the Arab streets, you know, and and and

1242
01:28:54,239 --> 01:28:57,960
encouraging them to identify uh, you know, America and the

1243
01:28:58,039 --> 01:29:02,880
Coalition as as this of savior element. You know, that

1244
01:29:03,319 --> 01:29:05,600
that was best suited to combat at this grave evil

1245
01:29:05,680 --> 01:29:10,800
lid you know, had befallen the Kingdom potentially, and that

1246
01:29:11,119 --> 01:29:14,399
you know, was it was already you know, it was

1247
01:29:14,439 --> 01:29:19,399
already engaged in gross, gross acts of of of of

1248
01:29:19,520 --> 01:29:24,880
of a terrifying nature in Kuwait. So I mean there

1249
01:29:24,920 --> 01:29:26,359
was a lot here. You know, it wasn't just a

1250
01:29:26,439 --> 01:29:30,560
matter of that. This wasn't beside the fact it was

1251
01:29:30,560 --> 01:29:34,680
the first open, open ended military deployment since the Vietnam War.

1252
01:29:35,239 --> 01:29:37,640
It was the first, uh, it was the first real

1253
01:29:37,720 --> 01:29:43,359
operational test of of of the of the post RIMA

1254
01:29:43,680 --> 01:29:46,880
you know, r A M A relative military affairs army,

1255
01:29:48,199 --> 01:29:54,720
it uh, all those things. It was. It was the

1256
01:29:54,760 --> 01:30:00,399
first major uh, it was the first major con inflict

1257
01:30:00,439 --> 01:30:05,039
of the you know, it's of the post Cold War era.

1258
01:30:05,199 --> 01:30:08,560
I mean, the color was in the process of ending

1259
01:30:08,600 --> 01:30:10,560
at that point. I mean, yeah, the wall would come down,

1260
01:30:10,680 --> 01:30:13,239
what you know, the Soviet Union still existed. Like this

1261
01:30:13,479 --> 01:30:16,640
was this kind of arrived at like the worst possible time,

1262
01:30:16,920 --> 01:30:20,439
you know, But that's you know, war arrives like the seasons,

1263
01:30:20,720 --> 01:30:23,960
doesn't it. But that but a lot of what was

1264
01:30:24,000 --> 01:30:28,199
going on, you know, on the on the propaganda side

1265
01:30:28,239 --> 01:30:31,479
and the cultivation and narratives and things like that, A

1266
01:30:31,560 --> 01:30:36,760
lot of that was was Bush Baker. You know, in

1267
01:30:36,880 --> 01:30:39,600
the American White House, in American State Department, like speaking

1268
01:30:39,640 --> 01:30:42,640
to the Arab street or signaling to them, you know,

1269
01:30:44,199 --> 01:30:48,199
and uh and and in ways that I I don't

1270
01:30:48,279 --> 01:30:50,880
think even if even if the foreign policy establishment, even

1271
01:30:50,920 --> 01:30:53,279
if they weren't conceptually illiterate these days, I don't I

1272
01:30:53,319 --> 01:30:55,159
don't think they have the ability to do that, just

1273
01:30:55,199 --> 01:30:59,039
like creatively or you know, in terms of their like

1274
01:30:59,119 --> 01:31:02,880
psychologically app situte or anything like that. I just I

1275
01:31:02,960 --> 01:31:05,039
just couldn't. I can't see it happening even if there

1276
01:31:05,079 --> 01:31:13,319
weren't abject the object morons at at the helm. How

1277
01:31:13,399 --> 01:31:17,439
long we've been going, like, forgive me about forty Okay, yeah,

1278
01:31:17,479 --> 01:31:18,600
I'll speed it up a little bit.

1279
01:31:19,800 --> 01:31:20,520
Speaker 3: The really.

1280
01:31:23,720 --> 01:31:26,000
Speaker 2: I realized that, uh, we gotta, we gotta move on

1281
01:31:26,119 --> 01:31:27,520
so we can get into the go ahead.

1282
01:31:27,840 --> 01:31:29,880
Speaker 1: Well, well, hit me up with this because I think

1283
01:31:29,920 --> 01:31:32,960
you already mentioned it. But one of the big and

1284
01:31:33,079 --> 01:31:35,520
I remember this when it was happening, one of the

1285
01:31:35,600 --> 01:31:39,159
big contentions, one of the big things that they made

1286
01:31:39,359 --> 01:31:43,840
a big deal out of, and it was was Saddam

1287
01:31:43,960 --> 01:31:47,079
launching the scuds just into the Israeli population.

1288
01:31:47,720 --> 01:31:53,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm glad you raised the Saddam was craftier.

1289
01:31:54,439 --> 01:31:57,159
Speaker 1: I'll tell you I had I had a Jewish girlfriend

1290
01:31:57,199 --> 01:31:59,840
at the time, and she had spent a lot of

1291
01:31:59,840 --> 01:32:01,800
time time in Israel and knew a lot of friends there.

1292
01:32:02,039 --> 01:32:04,399
Speaker 3: So yeah, that was a fun night. That was That

1293
01:32:04,560 --> 01:32:06,119
was a fun night when that started.

1294
01:32:07,239 --> 01:32:14,239
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, the well I Saddam was craftier than people think.

1295
01:32:14,359 --> 01:32:21,560
And something very strange happened UH at the onset of

1296
01:32:22,359 --> 01:32:33,720
hostilities after you know, January seventeenth onward, the uh you know,

1297
01:32:34,239 --> 01:32:38,680
the the the onset of Desert store was a massive

1298
01:32:38,720 --> 01:32:45,640
air campaign, which the UH some there's some military types

1299
01:32:45,640 --> 01:32:47,840
who say that it should have just been a fall

1300
01:32:47,920 --> 01:32:50,720
on combined arms assault and that it was you know,

1301
01:32:50,840 --> 01:32:53,760
the the weeks long you know air campaign was uh

1302
01:32:54,720 --> 01:32:57,640
was was wasteful and lives, you know, civilian nutrition they're

1303
01:32:57,680 --> 01:33:02,079
talking about, and and in a waste of time. Frankly,

1304
01:33:02,199 --> 01:33:04,000
I I'm not going to get into that, and I'm

1305
01:33:04,039 --> 01:33:11,399
not super qualified to discuss that. But as as UH,

1306
01:33:12,359 --> 01:33:16,000
by the last week in January, the coalition had had

1307
01:33:16,319 --> 01:33:19,960
had UH had flown something crazy like twenty three thousand

1308
01:33:20,079 --> 01:33:25,880
sorties over Iraq, and I like Kuwait, they'd uh they've

1309
01:33:25,880 --> 01:33:31,239
been dropping these two thousand pound bombs on Iraqi airfields

1310
01:33:31,560 --> 01:33:35,560
that were more accurate than their destructive power was greater

1311
01:33:35,640 --> 01:33:40,840
than people had anticipated. So the Iraqi error element was

1312
01:33:40,880 --> 01:33:43,319
like taking a serious beating. And I think they they

1313
01:33:43,479 --> 01:33:46,760
they lost twenty two planes and in tactical aerial combat

1314
01:33:47,680 --> 01:33:52,560
you know, the UH and these were these these these

1315
01:33:52,600 --> 01:33:56,600
were French, Italian then and Soviet aircraft. And they even

1316
01:33:56,680 --> 01:33:58,960
had some make twenty nines like the Mad twenty nine

1317
01:33:59,039 --> 01:34:05,439
folk from that was that was packaged for export. It

1318
01:34:05,600 --> 01:34:08,560
was it was not the same as the as the

1319
01:34:09,159 --> 01:34:12,680
Soviet Air Forces model. It was an inferior model or

1320
01:34:12,680 --> 01:34:14,600
stripped out in some way. But the point is it

1321
01:34:14,680 --> 01:34:18,039
was in mid twenty nine, like this wasn't I raised

1322
01:34:18,079 --> 01:34:20,520
that for clarity, you know, the iraqis they weren't. They

1323
01:34:20,520 --> 01:34:23,600
weren't flying around. I went in nineteen fifties planes or something. Okay.

1324
01:34:26,000 --> 01:34:32,119
It so as this on January twenty sixth, something very

1325
01:34:32,159 --> 01:34:38,159
strange happened. Suddenly Iraqi planes they started appearing in Iranian airspace.

1326
01:34:38,800 --> 01:34:40,720
Like at first it was just like a few of them,

1327
01:34:41,319 --> 01:34:42,960
but then it became clear that they were going to

1328
01:34:43,079 --> 01:34:45,960
Iran and in dedicated flight patterns. This wasn't like a

1329
01:34:46,000 --> 01:34:50,640
handful of defectors or something. You know. At first it

1330
01:34:50,720 --> 01:34:52,800
was about twenty, then it was about sixty, and it

1331
01:34:52,880 --> 01:34:56,680
was over one hundred, and the entire remainder of the

1332
01:34:56,720 --> 01:35:01,840
Iraqi Air Force literally flew to Iran. And this one

1333
01:35:02,039 --> 01:35:08,000
US Pentagon official at the time who asked not to

1334
01:35:08,079 --> 01:35:10,159
be named, and you can still find the You can

1335
01:35:10,199 --> 01:35:13,159
still find the the article online. Google it. Right before

1336
01:35:13,199 --> 01:35:18,640
we went live, he said, to what kind of frightened

1337
01:35:18,760 --> 01:35:23,319
uh New York Times Journal, He said, I really hope

1338
01:35:23,439 --> 01:35:26,600
that this is not Saddam Hussein's like Molotov ribbons trot

1339
01:35:26,640 --> 01:35:31,520
packed moments, because we could have a real problem, and

1340
01:35:33,479 --> 01:35:36,199
the Iranians had no intention of collaborating with Saddam. I

1341
01:35:36,239 --> 01:35:38,079
don't even think they had any definite way of context

1342
01:35:38,239 --> 01:35:42,079
yet at that point. But I think Saddam absolutely wanted

1343
01:35:42,119 --> 01:35:46,000
America to think that, and I think he absolutely wanted

1344
01:35:46,000 --> 01:35:49,119
America to launch some like mass assault in Iran incident

1345
01:35:49,239 --> 01:35:54,560
to thinking that. You know, I at the time, I

1346
01:35:54,680 --> 01:35:58,560
remember some of these guys like we're saying that, well,

1347
01:35:58,600 --> 01:36:01,000
Sadam's an idiot. He should have ruin his whole air force,

1348
01:36:01,079 --> 01:36:03,399
a carrier battle group and tried to sink what he

1349
01:36:03,479 --> 01:36:05,720
could you know, the people talking about as if it

1350
01:36:05,800 --> 01:36:08,680
was like the Argentine Air Force. Uh, you know, like

1351
01:36:09,039 --> 01:36:13,279
like like knocking out British cruisers in the Falklands. It's

1352
01:36:13,319 --> 01:36:15,520
like not at all comparable. And like it' said, I'm

1353
01:36:15,680 --> 01:36:18,520
thrown those airplanes at UH at a carrier battle group,

1354
01:36:18,600 --> 01:36:21,000
they just would have gotten like slaughtered. It just would

1355
01:36:21,000 --> 01:36:22,960
have been like a fireworks show, and like that would

1356
01:36:22,960 --> 01:36:25,760
be the end of it, like and he knew that.

1357
01:36:27,920 --> 01:36:33,119
So that coupled with you know, yeah, the the ability

1358
01:36:33,159 --> 01:36:37,439
of Bush and Baker to to stand down the uh

1359
01:36:38,520 --> 01:36:40,520
Israeli government. But also those are the days of like

1360
01:36:40,600 --> 01:36:42,920
yees Socra being man and stuff like you didn't just

1361
01:36:43,079 --> 01:36:45,880
like just like demento Zionist element. And it's not like

1362
01:36:45,960 --> 01:36:48,640
the israel government was ever any great shakes, but it

1363
01:36:48,760 --> 01:36:53,079
was a lot more rational than you know, and uh,

1364
01:36:53,760 --> 01:36:57,840
there's far more of a concord in the occupied territories,

1365
01:36:58,560 --> 01:37:01,920
you know, the uh it was it was kind of

1366
01:37:02,079 --> 01:37:05,560
it was kind of a rare moment of relative calm,

1367
01:37:06,399 --> 01:37:10,039
you know. So it was a constantly of all those things.

1368
01:37:10,119 --> 01:37:15,560
But yeah, I understanding either of those things in isolation,

1369
01:37:16,760 --> 01:37:22,800
either the uh the launching that scuds at at Tel

1370
01:37:22,800 --> 01:37:27,319
Aviv or UH, you know, the UH, the appearance of UH,

1371
01:37:27,640 --> 01:37:31,159
the Iraqi Air Force or remain of it, and Iran.

1372
01:37:32,159 --> 01:37:35,279
I think those things have to be understood together. And

1373
01:37:35,319 --> 01:37:39,319
it's also you know, once some I I mean the

1374
01:37:39,319 --> 01:37:42,359
point of people too, I mean especially about the Second

1375
01:37:42,399 --> 01:37:45,319
World War, but about all conflicts. You know what, once,

1376
01:37:46,520 --> 01:37:51,880
once you're in a war, once you're in conditions approaching war,

1377
01:37:52,279 --> 01:37:53,880
you can't just say, like, you know what, I'm gonna

1378
01:37:53,880 --> 01:37:56,159
put the brakes on this and and like stop everything.

1379
01:37:56,920 --> 01:38:02,880
Like so I was saying after he wrote the Dice

1380
01:38:02,920 --> 01:38:04,439
in Kuwait, I don't think I don't think it's not

1381
01:38:04,720 --> 01:38:06,720
thought that the America would do anything. I think he

1382
01:38:06,760 --> 01:38:10,199
thought the British would. But I think I think he

1383
01:38:10,359 --> 01:38:16,920
recognized it's like it wasn't nineteen eighty two anymore, even

1384
01:38:16,960 --> 01:38:19,000
if it were. UH. And don't get me wrong, like

1385
01:38:19,039 --> 01:38:21,439
the fact that British could fight the Falklands War was incredible,

1386
01:38:21,600 --> 01:38:24,199
Like I take my hat off to him. They could

1387
01:38:24,239 --> 01:38:27,079
not have figured out that that campaign or similar campaign

1388
01:38:27,159 --> 01:38:31,479
on the ground against the Iraqi army, you know, and

1389
01:38:31,600 --> 01:38:34,880
logistically this would have been impossible. So Sonnam's notion was that,

1390
01:38:35,520 --> 01:38:38,520
you know, this is basically this is basically a low

1391
01:38:38,640 --> 01:38:40,840
risk Guenter prize and there was a wider war. Wasn't

1392
01:38:40,840 --> 01:38:42,399
big game clear that was not the case at all.

1393
01:38:42,479 --> 01:38:46,079
It's like, well it was too late. Sonam could have

1394
01:38:46,119 --> 01:38:50,159
gone all in assaulted Saudi Arabia and continued until he

1395
01:38:50,239 --> 01:38:54,159
you know, hit the actually hit the gulf, and uh

1396
01:38:55,840 --> 01:38:59,760
like seeing if he could hold it or he could

1397
01:38:59,800 --> 01:39:03,840
have just I held fast and uh, you know, I

1398
01:39:03,960 --> 01:39:07,239
hope that the coalition would fall apart before the onset

1399
01:39:07,279 --> 01:39:10,680
of hostilities, or if it did not, hoping that you know,

1400
01:39:11,199 --> 01:39:14,239
some kind of situation at theater y anarchy, you know,

1401
01:39:15,319 --> 01:39:20,439
and and and a wider war, you know, uh what

1402
01:39:20,600 --> 01:39:23,239
a forced uh America to kind of come to terms,

1403
01:39:23,920 --> 01:39:26,840
you know. But this idea that you know, this idea

1404
01:39:26,880 --> 01:39:28,880
that you can just like Cinnam everybody else can just

1405
01:39:28,960 --> 01:39:31,479
kind of like pull the plug on hostilities and just

1406
01:39:31,560 --> 01:39:34,000
be like, hey, I give up now, or like no,

1407
01:39:34,279 --> 01:39:39,439
it's not a thing's work. But yeah, I your your

1408
01:39:39,520 --> 01:39:42,399
your lady friend. Uh, I'm sure, I'm sure that was

1409
01:39:42,399 --> 01:39:45,800
an insane freaking experience she had or or friend's head

1410
01:39:45,920 --> 01:39:46,600
or whatever. You know.

1411
01:39:46,760 --> 01:39:48,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, that was pretty much the end of that.

1412
01:39:48,640 --> 01:39:48,880
Speaker 2: I was.

1413
01:39:50,760 --> 01:39:56,159
Speaker 1: At that point, Well, another another question, I guess it would,

1414
01:39:56,640 --> 01:39:58,920
which may be something that you wrap this up on.

1415
01:40:01,239 --> 01:40:03,319
Speaker 3: You know, why didn't they take out Saddam?

1416
01:40:03,439 --> 01:40:10,119
Speaker 2: Then the Baker view, and Baker really was kind of

1417
01:40:10,199 --> 01:40:12,199
on the political side. Baker was kind of in the

1418
01:40:12,279 --> 01:40:18,880
driver's seat. I it wasn't clear. And Baker made this

1419
01:40:18,960 --> 01:40:22,760
point in the in the years before uh to that

1420
01:40:22,920 --> 01:40:25,279
before nine to eleven, in the in the years during

1421
01:40:25,319 --> 01:40:28,039
the Clit administration, you know, after the Gulf War and

1422
01:40:28,159 --> 01:40:31,279
before nine to eleven, like it's not clear what people

1423
01:40:31,279 --> 01:40:33,720
think that would have accomplished, you know, like it's like

1424
01:40:33,960 --> 01:40:37,960
you kill, you kill Sadam Hussein. I mean that. I mean,

1425
01:40:38,000 --> 01:40:40,359
first of all, like you lose the appearance of lawfulness

1426
01:40:40,479 --> 01:40:43,920
because just going around like whacking people number one, number two,

1427
01:40:44,039 --> 01:40:47,800
it's like, okay, so then you got some you got

1428
01:40:47,880 --> 01:40:51,359
some Salafi government in the Sunni triangle, like fighting like

1429
01:40:51,439 --> 01:40:53,760
an ir a Iranian and his blood back to like

1430
01:40:54,359 --> 01:40:57,439
you know, shift element and basically had like the Iraqi

1431
01:40:57,520 --> 01:41:00,560
Civil War, but like ten years earlier, you know, And

1432
01:41:00,640 --> 01:41:06,600
it's like the I I don't I think it's moronic

1433
01:41:06,640 --> 01:41:09,039
when people are like, well, Sadam was like Arabs need

1434
01:41:09,239 --> 01:41:11,479
like you know, some brutal dictator to hum in a

1435
01:41:11,520 --> 01:41:13,800
line like that's just like fucked hard thinking and they

1436
01:41:13,840 --> 01:41:15,239
don't even know like what they're talking about and they

1437
01:41:15,279 --> 01:41:20,880
say that. But it's also I uh nor do I

1438
01:41:20,960 --> 01:41:22,920
think not? I think Saam is like was was like

1439
01:41:23,000 --> 01:41:27,600
a great man, but he he wasn't any any worse

1440
01:41:27,760 --> 01:41:31,800
than you know, a lot of other uh a lot

1441
01:41:31,840 --> 01:41:35,159
of other kind of kind of kind of dictator strong

1442
01:41:35,239 --> 01:41:40,000
man types who you know, who who America has founded

1443
01:41:40,079 --> 01:41:46,279
perfectly okay to live with the the uh, I mean

1444
01:41:46,319 --> 01:41:50,119
he Saddam Hussein thought that, but it's all too like again,

1445
01:41:50,159 --> 01:41:54,159
Sadam was uh he Sadam's like recklessness the I mean

1446
01:41:54,239 --> 01:41:56,760
during when the when the Cold War was ending, like everybody,

1447
01:41:56,880 --> 01:41:59,000
arguably he was being reckless, you know, in some way

1448
01:41:59,239 --> 01:42:01,439
or another in terms of like second rate power and

1449
01:42:01,520 --> 01:42:03,920
in terms of lesser powers like that. I mean, but

1450
01:42:04,000 --> 01:42:07,119
it's not like what why Saddam Hussein kind of became

1451
01:42:07,199 --> 01:42:10,640
this like this like there's this like bad guy stand

1452
01:42:10,720 --> 01:42:13,279
in for everybody. He was kind of weird because like

1453
01:42:13,399 --> 01:42:17,239
he just wasn't that important, you know, and he wasn't

1454
01:42:18,800 --> 01:42:22,359
somebody uh if America too, like if they'd want to do.

1455
01:42:22,640 --> 01:42:25,800
Uh if America hadn't didn't totally of its head of

1456
01:42:25,880 --> 01:42:28,479
its aass in the Middle East, even during the Cold War,

1457
01:42:28,520 --> 01:42:31,720
where it's just like, you know, again I ran as

1458
01:42:31,880 --> 01:42:35,159
uh I ran as going to be the dominant uh

1459
01:42:35,439 --> 01:42:38,279
GEO strategic power in the region. Okay, just he is saying,

1460
01:42:38,359 --> 01:42:42,239
like our policy do I ran since the Shah was deposed,

1461
01:42:42,239 --> 01:42:44,720
as we're gonna shriek over and over again that you're

1462
01:42:44,840 --> 01:42:49,000
evil in bead Like it's not it's not policy, you

1463
01:42:49,079 --> 01:42:50,840
know what I mean. Like it's something like an intelligent

1464
01:42:51,000 --> 01:42:55,840
US regime would have done whatever it had to do,

1465
01:42:56,439 --> 01:42:58,760
you know, to kind of uh finanse the Iranians into

1466
01:42:58,880 --> 01:43:02,680
doing what we wanted, you know. Well at the same time, uh,

1467
01:43:03,439 --> 01:43:06,720
you know, building up Iraq is a meaningful bulwark, but

1468
01:43:06,800 --> 01:43:13,760
also one that you know, people within the region and

1469
01:43:13,880 --> 01:43:17,920
that you know wasn't too what wasn't too easily discredited

1470
01:43:17,920 --> 01:43:20,079
in terms of its its optics and things, and that

1471
01:43:20,239 --> 01:43:22,439
very easily could have been acco not very easily any terms,

1472
01:43:22,479 --> 01:43:24,680
but in political terms, that definitely could have been accomplished.

1473
01:43:24,840 --> 01:43:27,600
But even aside from the politics of it, you know,

1474
01:43:29,000 --> 01:43:32,720
killing killing snam Musan would not really have accomplished anything.

1475
01:43:33,520 --> 01:43:35,880
And the Bath Party, despite what people say, it's very

1476
01:43:35,960 --> 01:43:38,800
different in Syria. It's I mean they're literally like at

1477
01:43:38,800 --> 01:43:42,279
odds with one another, you know. And uh and I

1478
01:43:42,359 --> 01:43:45,680
mean at the Assad family, they're they're they're they're great people,

1479
01:43:46,720 --> 01:43:49,720
they really are. And mashasas a hero and his father

1480
01:43:49,840 --> 01:43:55,399
was a hero. Okay, I my dad. Aside, the uh

1481
01:43:56,000 --> 01:43:58,920
baphism is a real thing. It's not just like contrivance

1482
01:43:59,079 --> 01:44:02,119
or something that would just fall apart if you removed

1483
01:44:02,279 --> 01:44:07,439
uh you know kind of the the lynchpin dictator, you

1484
01:44:07,560 --> 01:44:14,960
know who who's uh kind of ideological clothing is is

1485
01:44:15,000 --> 01:44:20,479
the af mentioned contrivance. If uh Asnam was just kind

1486
01:44:20,520 --> 01:44:23,479
of like simarily killed, I mean, I think there was.

1487
01:44:23,479 --> 01:44:25,560
The US lost a lot of credibility with when they

1488
01:44:25,600 --> 01:44:28,399
finally did like availament of his cane report for seeding frankly,

1489
01:44:28,960 --> 01:44:32,640
and then uh isis isis executed the judge who had

1490
01:44:32,720 --> 01:44:36,079
him hanged and uh I and they they they made

1491
01:44:36,119 --> 01:44:37,640
a tape of it. It was in one of their

1492
01:44:37,680 --> 01:44:40,119
like ice music videos. You know, it's like an arrow

1493
01:44:40,199 --> 01:44:41,760
and said, this is the judge and then like you know,

1494
01:44:41,840 --> 01:44:44,680
you see a guy like blowing his head off, and

1495
01:44:44,800 --> 01:44:47,119
that didn't make me happy and not happen anybody dies,

1496
01:44:47,199 --> 01:44:49,720
but I didn't feel sad that. I I mean, I

1497
01:44:49,760 --> 01:44:51,600
think judges are kind of piece of shit anyway, but

1498
01:44:52,399 --> 01:44:55,560
I uh that that guy didn't like feel bad for Okay,

1499
01:44:55,680 --> 01:45:00,239
what point being, I don't uh, I don't understand why

1500
01:45:00,279 --> 01:45:04,520
people think like, okay, like if they that's the thing.

1501
01:45:04,600 --> 01:45:07,039
It's like it's like some old movie or something like

1502
01:45:07,319 --> 01:45:10,720
Sam Musin is is like he's like some hive mind

1503
01:45:10,800 --> 01:45:13,199
and if like you shoot Saam Mussin, like all the

1504
01:45:13,279 --> 01:45:16,520
Arab automatons just like drop dead or fall over like

1505
01:45:16,720 --> 01:45:20,039
like Disneyland ortomatons, and you kill the power or something.

1506
01:45:20,079 --> 01:45:23,399
I don't know, but that's uh. But that's why the

1507
01:45:24,800 --> 01:45:26,960
the whole way that Operation I Rag You Freedom went

1508
01:45:27,000 --> 01:45:29,039
about was very weird, just like the planning when it

1509
01:45:29,119 --> 01:45:31,920
finally did come to fruition. The planning was just very bad,

1510
01:45:32,800 --> 01:45:34,439
you know, and it didn't really make a lot of sense.

1511
01:45:36,159 --> 01:45:39,920
We could cover that, uh another time, yeah, I I

1512
01:45:41,439 --> 01:45:44,760
I uh, thanks for accommoding me. I thought it was

1513
01:45:44,760 --> 01:45:46,880
important to do a deep dive into some into this

1514
01:45:47,600 --> 01:45:49,479
into the subject of the Gulf War before we moved on,

1515
01:45:50,880 --> 01:45:52,800
So I hope, I hope everybody got something out of

1516
01:45:52,840 --> 01:45:54,159
it worth well.

1517
01:45:54,119 --> 01:45:56,920
Speaker 1: And we can always come back to come back to

1518
01:45:57,000 --> 01:46:00,319
this for a one off and uh discuss the discuss

1519
01:46:00,359 --> 01:46:04,680
a little more so last time I didn't have you

1520
01:46:04,760 --> 01:46:05,520
plug anything.

1521
01:46:05,720 --> 01:46:07,479
Speaker 3: So what do you got going on?

1522
01:46:10,319 --> 01:46:13,199
Speaker 2: I've actually been really really busy, like recording content far

1523
01:46:13,239 --> 01:46:15,239
and wide, all kinds of people who wanted me to

1524
01:46:15,319 --> 01:46:17,960
record with them, which is dope. I'm going to try

1525
01:46:18,039 --> 01:46:20,039
and corral all of that like out of the website,

1526
01:46:20,520 --> 01:46:24,600
you know, which is pretty The website's pretty much done

1527
01:46:24,760 --> 01:46:28,880
and you can access it. I'll if you wouldn't mind

1528
01:46:29,000 --> 01:46:32,159
if you added to the comments at some point. But

1529
01:46:33,119 --> 01:46:35,880
other than that, I'm working on getting the channel launched.

1530
01:46:36,000 --> 01:46:39,279
I'm sure people probably think it seems like this is

1531
01:46:39,319 --> 01:46:42,800
taking forever, but it's just me and and my and

1532
01:46:42,920 --> 01:46:46,800
my crime partner Rake, So I mean, it does take

1533
01:46:46,880 --> 01:46:48,760
time and we want to do it right, but it

1534
01:46:48,880 --> 01:46:50,760
is on It is on track to launch, you know,

1535
01:46:50,920 --> 01:46:54,880
like this month. So other than that, I've been getting

1536
01:46:54,920 --> 01:46:59,000
back to my long form writing. I've got some articles

1537
01:46:59,039 --> 01:47:03,119
that are appearing, uh in print form. You know, you

1538
01:47:03,159 --> 01:47:05,920
can find me at UH. I'm still on Burber app Alough,

1539
01:47:05,920 --> 01:47:09,520
I'm kind of looking at disengagement that the summer moves on.

1540
01:47:11,199 --> 01:47:13,680
You can find me on substack subsects kind of my home.

1541
01:47:14,960 --> 01:47:21,760
It's also where the podcast is. It's real Thomas seven

1542
01:47:21,840 --> 01:47:25,279
seven seven dot substack dot com. You can also find

1543
01:47:25,319 --> 01:47:28,760
me on t gram. You know, I'm all over the place, man,

1544
01:47:29,119 --> 01:47:32,199
But that's uh, that's what I got going on. And uh,

1545
01:47:32,800 --> 01:47:35,039
we're you and I are doing our thing, and that's

1546
01:47:35,399 --> 01:47:39,439
that's huge, and people are responding to that very very well.

1547
01:47:39,720 --> 01:47:42,720
And uh, that's gives me a huge lift, man, Like

1548
01:47:42,720 --> 01:47:46,520
I'm very honored by that, and I I owe that

1549
01:47:46,720 --> 01:47:49,520
to you man for providing this format and you know,

1550
01:47:49,680 --> 01:47:53,760
kind of thinking through this, like thinking through this kind

1551
01:47:53,800 --> 01:47:58,479
of this, this kind of organizational structure that we do.

1552
01:47:58,840 --> 01:48:02,119
So yeah, thank you man. This is very great, no problem.

1553
01:48:02,199 --> 01:48:04,159
Speaker 1: And then uh, in the next couple of days, we'll

1554
01:48:04,159 --> 01:48:08,680
be getting together to drop episode one of uh Spanish

1555
01:48:08,720 --> 01:48:13,840
Civil War, something I've been basically every yea waking minute

1556
01:48:13,880 --> 01:48:18,399
I've been diving into and just getting and getting up

1557
01:48:18,439 --> 01:48:19,840
to speed on h.

1558
01:48:21,920 --> 01:48:24,279
Speaker 2: No. That's great, man. People are very excited about it

1559
01:48:24,439 --> 01:48:26,159
and it's a topic near and dear to my heart,

1560
01:48:26,720 --> 01:48:31,239
and to any revisionists or like anybody with uh you know,

1561
01:48:31,399 --> 01:48:35,479
with with with fascist sympathies or or like hard right sympathies,

1562
01:48:36,600 --> 01:48:40,199
it's a fundamentally important, you know, part of our heritage,

1563
01:48:40,279 --> 01:48:45,960
ideological heritage, and spiritual heritage too. So yeah, I'm very stoked, man,

1564
01:48:46,720 --> 01:48:47,279
very stoked.

1565
01:48:47,720 --> 01:48:49,600
Speaker 3: All right, Gonna thank you very much, appreciate it.

1566
01:48:50,279 --> 01:48:50,640
Speaker 2: Likewise,