Speaker 1: What's up everybody. Welcome into another episode of Prophet Picks.
If you are new, this show has always started by
being transparent, and yesterday I gave a best bet winner
for the show with the Valkyries plus eight. But my
five dollars Tuesday play was a loser with the Sparks
and Aces over one seventy two and a half. Man,
it just never, it never felt like for me, just
me personally, when I bet a total and the market
moves with me and it's just going it loses. I
don't know what it is about the totals in the
market for me, but that was not good Meino. I
know you had Valkyries first half with the winner. Was
the rest of your day just as good?
Speaker 2: But the rest of my day wasn't just as good
because I was involved in the Sparks and Aces game two.
I liked it. Sparks team total over eighty six and
a half and they really never got untracked in that game.
Las Vegas got off to a really fast start. Sparks
did not make a lot of shots. It was the
return of Cameron Brink who actually, for not playing in
four hundred plus stays, looked pretty good. So things to
come on the horizon for Los Angeles. Have to write
it off. Maybe it's just one of those offensive performances, Ski,
because they had been really really good during this recent stretch,
but last night not so good. So one in one
split will look to do better today.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we gotta do a little bit better here, Jeffrey.
Maybe I can't. I can't make any promises.
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, I try to be a little
bit more on time, but he says, Ski gonna be
late for his own wedding one day if I get married.
That's a that's another story though. So first came up.
We're gonna go six oh one, six oh two. Phoenix
and Indiana opened up minus two and a half for
the Mercury. I see it as high as four total
open one sixty two and a half. It just continues
to climb one sixty seven and a half. As far
as who is available, nobody on the edge report for
Phoenix for Indiana still without Kaitlyn Clark.
Speaker 3: So both of these teams well rested.
Speaker 1: Both last played on the twenty seven, so two days
rest for each and the Fever off back to back wins. Meanwhile, well,
the Mercury did did bounce back with a win, but
the Mercury before that had not been playing very good basketball.
Speaker 3: It felt like they were out of rhythm.
Speaker 1: Maybe in that second half of the game wheresus Washington,
they found that rhythm because they did explode. But that's
what I've been waiting for, you know, ever since Sa
to Kalia. Everybody's back healthy, it's just been kind of
kind of shakier iffy for them for the fever. They've
shown they can't compete. They know how to play, whether
Caitlyn Clark is in the lineup or not. They're in
my opinion, playing a little bit better than the Mercury
right now they're at home. My first inclination is fever
first half. I feel like the Mercury have been very
slow out the gates, like first quarter, and Fever have
very strong, you know, the first twenty minutes of games.
Speaker 3: So that's the way I'll lean in this one. How
are you doing it? Robie?
Speaker 1: Know?
Speaker 2: Well, I would say first off that I come here
with all these notes and then you go ahead and
steal like sixty percent of them. So I don't know
much to back, but I agree with you. I agree
with you and a lot of this stuff here. First off,
let let's just start with Phoenix and being back in rhythm, right,
because it's been since too and Claire Copper got back
into the lineup. Their offense wasn't really in, as you said,
a good rhythm, but they played a couple of really
good offensive halves in that most recent game against Washington,
forty two in the first half, forty six points in
the second half. A little bit of consistency. That's a
good sign for the offense. Which you know, you go
through a Phoenix box score after watching their game and
you don't sometimes you don't realize they're running nine to
ten players in and out of games. Their minutes don't
really get to the point where you worry about fatigue
with the Phoenix team. I know they're un rest here,
but I'm just making a general point about how deep
this team is and how many players they can run
in and out. So that'll be good for them here tonight.
The defense, though, Ski, I'm not so sure that the
defense is quite there yet. Now. They only gave up
twenty six in the second half to Washington, which is
an extremely low total, and Washington is subject to having
those miserable halves. We talked about that a little bit yesterday.
Then they went out and scored one hundred and three
last night. But since Sobbly and Copper came back into
the lineup, the team had played a total of six
halves prior to the twenty six that they gave up
in the second half. How about these half calf totals
fifty one, forty six, forty six, forty three, and thirty
nine was the low. The defense hasn't been great for
Phoenix right now. Sometimes it doesn't matter because they can
outscore you. Their last dozen games, they've allowed eighty one
or more, and seven of those. What's interesting to note
is that the other five games in that dozen they
only allowed an average of seventy four point two, which
would lead the league in defense if that was a
full season number. But you know what, those four games
Satu and Copper weren't playing. It's crazy you think when
Satu comes back, they're a better defensive team. But they
played great defense inside those four games. However, you dig
a little deeper into that scheme, you find out those
four three of them were against Minnesota and Golden State,
two of the slowest tempos going. I remember watching a
couple of those Phoenix games without Sobbly and Copper, they
started to slow down. They didn't play as fast because
they were shorthanded. So there's reasons why they kept those
games lower scoring, which leads me to believe that the
deep defense is just mostly what it's been for the
majority of the season. It's not a great defense. Indiana
can score on them. You talked about how they've scored
without Caitland Clark. Without Caitland Clark, how about this. The
last ten games, Indiana's averaging over eighty six points a game.
Six of those ten are without Clark, so it just
doesn't matter at this point. They're used to it enough.
I think both offenses are the best units on the
floor here. It was a great number at the opener.
I did release this game today at one sixty six.
It's now one sixty seven and a half. But I
do think this game's gonna find its way up and over.
I just think these two offenses are too high powered
not to find their way to eighty four side.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not mad at that I mentioned a couple.
Speaker 1: I mean, props Ari, she didn't hit that four and
a half a sis her last two games. Her minutes
have been kind of iffy, but we know most of
the games about Clayton Clark she has and getting a
five plus assist, just a slight lean theer Kelsey Mitchell.
I mean, when there's no Kaitlyn Clark, the Fever are
not going to have a chance unless she's scoring. And
she's been doing just that. I mean she's had twenty
plus I want to say, seven of her last eight
games something like that, So asking her to get twenty
again tonight, the nineteen and a half number seems very
very doable, So I lean towards Kelsey Mitchell. I think
that's what I feel most confident about in this game.
All right, next up we have I mean it should
it was supposed to be a good one, but it
keeps getting more and more watered down by the minute.
Speaker 3: I guess Links and Liberty opened up eight and a half.
We see, I mean it's.
Speaker 1: Been moving the entire like the past thirty minutes. I
feel like, but I see seven, I see eight, seven
and a half. So it just all depends where you
shot for this one. The total steady moving up open
one sixty one and a half. We now see it
as high as one sixty seven and a half at
a shop, So a lot of people thinking we should
see some points. There are some injury concerns here, a
lot for well really none for Minnesota. But for the Liberty,
Natasha Cloud is now questionable with the illness. They will
be without Kennedy Burke, Naar, Savy and Stewie and of
course Emma Missiman is not ready to make her debut
on the Liberty yet. So missing a lot for this
New York team. And this is kind of throws a
wrenching in my thought process here, you know, because I
mean they're potentially missing two starters here. I mean, like
I said, it waters down the game quite a bit.
This is supposed to be a spot where the Links
have been waiting to give them a little bit of
payback after they stole the WNBA Finals from them. No
Stewie seeing no Cloud. We see this time and time again,
you know, where the team just like overlooks him almost
And in a normal game I would lean that way.
I still think the Links should be focusing and want
to win this game.
Speaker 3: Do they want to win? Or can they win by
double digits?
Speaker 1: They can, but it makes me hesitant, And what else
I don't like is the Liberty or off back to
back losses. The Liberty had a players meeting after the
last game, right talking about.
Speaker 3: Their poor stars to games.
Speaker 1: That makes me think that no matter who's on the
court for them, they're going to come out strong early
in the game. So I wanted, I really wanted to have.
I had a whole write up before the line even
came out, wanting to take the links. I saw the
line of the day and a half after everything that
I just explained with the Liberty, and I could not
press the button. Have you been able to press the
button in this game? VE know?
Speaker 3: Well?
Speaker 2: I didn't because I couldn't understand the movement in the
line ski. I couldn't understand why there was Liberty money
under the assumption that Breonna Stewart wasn't going to play?
What are you betting the Liberty for? And then recently,
within the last couple hours, you get in the Natasha
Cloud game time decision, and I still wonder, what are
you betting the Liberty for if you're not going to
be one of those two. When the Liberty last played,
it was against Dallas, and I had made a case
for Dallas team total over based on not Brianna Stewart's
ability to score, but she means so much defensively to
that team on the boards. Rim protection Natasha Cloud means
just as much to the perimeter defense of that team.
Escu's not a great perimeter defender. They really don't have
a great perimeter defender outside of Cloud. So now you
got the best interior defender, the best perimeter defender, SODA
team total should be doable here, Ski, the New York
defense has not been good as of late. They like
I say, they give them ninety two to Dallas the
other night, and Dallas only scored seven in the fourth quarter,
so they gave up eighty five and three quarters. I
think it was sixty three at halftime. Over the course
of their last ten games or so, I think they're
giving up eighty plus. A lot of those are with Stewart.
So now, like I say, MINUS heard the other night,
they didn't look good. Dallas is a team that crashes
the boards. I get it. They get a lot of
second chance points. I get it. Minnesota has that capability too,
although I will say that Elina Smith got hurt at
the end of last game and ankle I think, but
I think she came back on the floor, so their
front line is intact. I don't know. To me, I
may end up playing this. I may end up playing
Minnesota over that team total of eighty seven, just because
I don't see New York as being a defensive threat
in this game. I know Minnesota goes slow. We talk
about how methodical they are all the time, but in
that same sentence, you have to speak about how effective
they are every possession. You can go slow, but if
you're scoring, and if you're shooting the way this team shoots,
best two point shooting team in the league, second best
three point shooting team in the league, then I don't
worry too much about pay So I may get to
Minnesota team total here.
Speaker 3: What's the number there? Eighty seven?
Speaker 2: You said eighty seven.
Speaker 1: I mean that does make sense to me. We know
how good, we know how good Minnesota's offense is. I
mean two of their last three games they did have
ninety plus. Minnesota so far this year off a loss.
I mean they've covered every game they've gone over all
five games they scored ninety plus, and all of those
games off of a loss. Even if they start slow here,
I do think that at some point they can pick
it up. What you said about Breonna Stewarts defense, Like,
here's my first start in the game I was watching,
or the recent games I was watching, it feels like
when teams drag JJ out the paint, like having a
big on the perimeter that can shoot her with the
ball or whatever, there's nobody back there to help protect
the rim. And I mean, but the same and the
same like when JJ was out, it was the same, right,
it was just Stewie, but they were able to play defense.
So I still almost have a belief like if they
if they give better effort, they can play defense. But
still just seeing them give up that ninety two to
Dallas game before that, they gave up what ninety or
one hundred and two to the Sparks, I think it was.
Speaker 3: I agree with you.
Speaker 1: I think Minnesota should be able to score, if anything,
in this one. So either Minnesota or Minnesota team total over.
I guess there directions that I'm looking at in this game.
Speaker 2: I think what makes it worse Ski real quick as
far as room protection, this concern is that you don't
even have cig. I mean, your backup big isn't even there,
So they've just lacked presence. We're rebounding and defense is
concerned in.
Speaker 1: My mind, and what I mentioned about bringing the big
out right, Minnesota is gonna do that. They're gonna have
a bunch of shooters on the court. John cole Jones
is at some point is gonna have to come out
to paint. And their team that swings the ball and
moves the ball and screens like there should be a
lot of back huts and easy buckets for them tonight.
So that's how I see it. Let's easyb Miami things.
Celeberty come out, throw the first punch, then the Links
win the game. Definitely could happen, all right, one more
game left here, you know, Dream and Wings opened up
minus five for Atlanta on the road. They are down
as low as three total to open one sixty five,
and it looks like it's up as how as one
sixty seven. Injury report here, I mean, we all know,
I mean the same two usual, So respects for both
team here, right. Ryan Howard going to be out for
a while for Atlanta. Maddy Segers out for the Wings.
This is the Dream on the back to back. They
lost to the Valkyries last night. They were making a
comeback effort just couldn't get it all the way done.
And this is also a chance for them to get
some double digit in season revenge. Right last time they
played this Wings team, it was probably their worst game
of the season.
Speaker 3: They lost fifty five to sixty eight.
Speaker 1: They let the Wings defense hold them to fifty five points.
So I think I think they do remember that game,
and I think they really put in a good effort
to bounce back in this game. The Wings are coming
off a game where they played well. They won as
an underdog, like we just talked about against the Liberty,
but I think that was just more on the Liberty
playing bad. The Dream have been playing really good lately.
They've been really naming their number offensively too. I have
to think, especially you know them, being where they are understandings,
they really want to come in and win this game.
You're really just asking them to win at the current number,
and I think they can. I don't necessarily care that
the Wings have rest advantage. I would prefer to have
my money on the better team, and I do think
the Dream can name their number. So Dream Team Total
or Dream are the ways I'm looking in this matchup.
How do you feel about it.
Speaker 2: Man, I love what you said at the end their
ski because I was going to say, this line's been
pushed down, and it's pushed down with Dallas money probably
just based on the situation, right as you laid out,
back to back with travel, third and four days. But
you could bet Dallas in this situational spot at your
own risk, with your own money, because it's not They're
not a team that you want to just find a
situation and play them. They had a great game last game,
but we know how sporadic they are, we know how
bad their defense is. So despite the fact that the
schedule makers made it tough on Atlanta and we could
see for one second, I'll just pat ourselves on the
back here because we saw that Golden State Atlanta game
coming last night. First half on my side, full game
on your side. Both worked out. It was kind of
just a textbook type effort out of Atlanta as a
big favorite in that game. But before that game, back
to back ninety point performances on the road. One was
against the number one defense in the league, Minnesota. And
just like we said about Indiana learning how to score
without Caitlin Clark, I feel like Atlanta's learned how to
score without Ryan Howard. They're not the fastest up and
down team in the league, but if you want to
run with them, they will run. They're not adverse to running.
So Dallas is going to push pace the number two
paced team over the last ten games, number three, I
think overall in the league, maybe number two. But their
defense has been abysmal the last ten, you know, I mean,
we could use a lot of groupings to say Dallas's
defense is bad, but they're giving up eighty eighty game
over their last ten. So Atlanta should find their way offensively.
And one last thing I'll add to it is Dallas
fouls like crazy. They're the worst free throw rate allowed
in the league, and Atlanta gets to the line. I
think they're fifth in the league and free throw rates
so should be good. You're gonna get tempo, You're going
to get Atlanta in a bounce back offensive situation. I
think the step down in class between playing excuse me,
between playing Golden State's defense, which was a little bit
angry after the Connecticut game, and now playing Dallas's defense,
that's a severe step down in class for Atlanta. All
that being said, I always feel like Dallas can score
and Atlanta hasn't been the stingiest of defenses either. Another
thing to add here is Dallas generally gets themselves into
trouble with turnover, but Atlanta, to my surprise when I
look this morning, is the worst in the league get
forcing turnovers. So maybe that doesn't come into play, and
Dallas gets all their possessions. We know they crash the boards,
we know they get a lot of chances at the rim.
They'll probably get those tonight. I think this one gets
over as well. If I were to single out a team,
I would single out Atlanta's team total over the way
you did. But I think the full game gets over here.
It kind of took a jump up and then a
little step back. I think the current number somewhere in
the one sixty six one sixty six and a half range.
I think it gets over all.
Speaker 1: Right, We're in agreement on this one. Mark, he says
atl on the road he likes overs for that. So
a lot of people seeing this one the same way
here as eb Miami thinks Page will get over seventeen
and a half points. I never want to talk anybody
off Page. One of my favorite players.
Speaker 3: In the league definitely can't talk you off of that. Yeah,
we're pretty much an agreement. Michael be Here.
Speaker 1: Says Dallas will get crushed off that upset at the Liberty,
great spot for Atlanta off a tough loss.
Speaker 3: We're all pretty much.
Speaker 1: In agreement on these games. So I think we did
a pretty good job. It took us a little longer today.
It took us twenty minutes to get through the three games.
But like I said, I think we did a solid job.
Speaker 3: So we'll move it over the best bets.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to throw any graphics up today, but
I will ask you Rob, you know, if there's anything
you would like to promote and if you have a
best bet for the show, we'd love to hear it.
Speaker 3: If you do not, it is all good.
Speaker 2: I will say real quick. Ski. I'm not sure on
the expiration date on this, but there is a special package.
Speaker 3: Oh my mo.
Speaker 2: Well, there's a special on NFL preseason football, which actually
begins tomorrow. I think it's sixty nine bucks for the
entire preseason. I do handicap preseason. So for those of
you watching Ski show or those of you who will
watch it later, if you're interested in preseason. Go ahead
and hop over the wagestalk dot com pick up that
access preseason package. So I think it's like I said,
I think it's just sixty nine dollars. I'm just not
sure on the expiration date. Could be soon, So go
over to wagertalk dot com.
Speaker 3: Best bet.
Speaker 2: I think I've got a few to choose from tonight's
g because I played a little today I saw the card.
Like the card, I think for purposes of the show,
I'll go let's go to what we just talked about,
Atlanta and Dallas, because I really think Atlanta's going to
find their way to ninety or more in this game,
and Dallas will probably you know, they're never point wise,
they're never out of it. They probably find their way
to eighty as well. So I think full game total
is definitely a good way to go in that one.
So let's play it that way. Atlanta Dallas, full game over.
Just staring at the OD screen real quick for you guys,
one sixty six and a half looks like to be
the best number you can get right now. So I'll
use that one sixty six and a half full game over.
Speaker 3: And I will.
Speaker 1: I'll stay on that same game. Let' see if we
can do a little something like yesterday. But I'll go
team total for the Dream eighty.
Speaker 3: Four and a half. I think it's very doable.
Speaker 1: I mean, Dallas defense allows a little bit over eighty
six per game on a season. Lately has been slightly better,
but they still allow over eighty five per game in
those last five games. The defense just isn't good, to
be nice about it. For Dallas, it hasn't been good
for a long time, and it's still not good.
Speaker 3: The Dream.
Speaker 1: In their last nine wins, they've been scoring. They've had
eighty five plus in all nine of those games, and
I think they're very capable of winning this game tonight.
Speaker 3: So Dream.
Speaker 1: And also, I mean we've seen I just looked this up.
Actually we've seen three road favorites. I forgot to mention
early three unrested road favorites this season. They've all covered
in won and looks like, oh two out of three
hit the team total. So just because they're unrested doesn't
mean they can't play good, they can't score. I like
the Dream team total over eighty four and a half.
That's my best bet for the show. We know, another
good day capping these games with you. I believe tomorrow
we have only one game to talk about, so we'll
come back and do it here again. Always appreciate you
taking the time for everybody in the comments section.
Speaker 3: We appreciate you guys.
Speaker 1: Much love to you guys, ZB Miami reminding everybody to
hit the like button. That definitely helps us out. And yeah,
you guys are just great people, great cappers and help
make the show what it is. So always want to
let you know you're appreciated. Everybody out there on Twitch,
kick x, YouTube shorts, Spotify, Apple.
Speaker 3: You all are appreciated too.
Speaker 1: We'll be right back here again tomorrow ten thirty am
Pacific Standard time, and we will catch you then