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Speaker 1: America is going to come out stronger. But in the

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short term, this potential trade war as well as potential

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deportations could not only hurt inflation, but also the labor market,

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and we could start to hear this nasty word that

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we talked about just a few years ago called stagflation,

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and man and that happens, things could look a little

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bit different.

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Speaker 2: You were listening to Carrie Leutz's Financial Survival Network, where

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you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else

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to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork

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dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial

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Survival Network.

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Speaker 4: I'm your host, Carrie Leutz.

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Speaker 3: Well, who can believe we're just five weeks after the

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election and the good news keeps coming in. We just

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got the PPI numbers, and Dale Smothers is with us

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now to help us make some sense of them. So

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the CPI PPI both coming in higher than expected?

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Speaker 4: What does that really mean?

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Speaker 1: Hey, Gerry, a little bit higher than we were hoping,

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But Honestly, this is not out of what I was expecting.

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It's higher than what the experts were expecting. But I

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do think that we will start to see inflation rearing

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its ugly head once again. As you've heard me mentioned

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many times on this show, I think that this could

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be more of a balloon landing than an actual soft

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landing that the FED is hoping for. We've got a

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lot of headwind that we're facing here, Carrie, a lot

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of headwind coming with the administration, and in my opinion,

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I think it's something that needs to happen. America is

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going to come out stronger. But in the short term,

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this potential trade will or as well as potential deportations,

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could not only hurt inflation, but also the labor market,

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and we could start to hear this nasty word that

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we talked about just a few years ago called stagflation,

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and man, and that happens, things could look a little

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bit different.

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Speaker 3: Well, some would argue that we've already had stagflation for

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the past several years.

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Speaker 1: Very true, very true, and I would not argue against them.

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You know, the numbers come in with these reports, Carrie.

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You've heard me say this several times as well. They

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come in. We trade on the news and we sleep

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on the revision. You know, whether or not this one

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gets revised higher than what we saw is one thing.

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But you're going to have analysts who look at this

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is a point two percent month over month rise in PPI,

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and they're going to analyze this and then annualize that

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point too and say, oh, that's right at our target.

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But the reality is, if we look year over year,

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we have seen a immediate surge. What did it come

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in at three point four percent year over year in

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PPI numbers? That is that is an almost unfathimable number

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for us to then be cutting in. You know, that

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number all together is not bad, but to say that

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the Fed is going to continue to cut in spite

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of that number, that would be shocking. And unfortunately, I

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think that's what we're going to see.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, Powell wants to keep his job right, right,

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and he's going to have to do something to a comedy.

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But what about DOGE and what about the push to

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eliminate needless governmental functions? If they're only halfway successful and

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they can knock off a trillion, that's going to make

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a big difference.

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Speaker 4: Isn't it.

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Speaker 1: This is going to make a huge difference. And one

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of the things that it's hard to quantify is the

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amount of growth that we'll see. The spending will be cut,

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Hopefully growth follows with tax cuts, growth follows our GDP

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continues to grow. We've got a mess we've got to

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clean up here, Carrie. As you're aware, we talked last

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about how much we spend and our debt to GDP ratio.

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It's off the charts. This Doge move is one that

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is long overdue if you ask me, and I think

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they've got the right people looking at these budgets. I

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do think that there will be some people who are

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all about cutting government spending until it affects them and

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then the real trench warfare sets in. So we could

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see a little bit of a line and a division

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of sides once we see what Doge is going to do.

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But the theory behind Doge is one that I would

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support hands down.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And I mean people are making fun of it.

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Maybe they're not taking it seriously, because if you were

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alive when Ronald Reagan was president, they promised all these

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initiatives and everything else.

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Speaker 4: Do you think this one's going to succeed.

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Speaker 1: I do when you talk about making fun of and

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thinking it's not serious, it reminds me of a candidate

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back what would that have been in twenty and fifteen

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that announced his candidacy and eventually one because America is

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sick and tired of being the bad end of a deal,

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this trade war is going to help. It's going to

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feel bad at the beginning. It is war. Unfortunately, no

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one dies, but a lot of paychecks will be impacted,

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and it won't go as far, perhaps for a period

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of time, will come out the victor with that doze

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is another one that I think is led by a

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man who is headstrong and could care less what people

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think of him.

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Speaker 3: You think, yeah, I know, kid. So how much do

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they have to cut? And what can they really cut?

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If you can't cut Social Security and Medicare, although you

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can cut the fraudulent and the improper payments, but if

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that's off the table, that's the majority of the spending

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in the economy, right sure.

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Speaker 1: Sure, And when you look at the numbers, it begins

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to it begins to get difficult to see where they're

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going to cut trillions of dollars of spending. But you know,

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it's very much like a drug and once once, once

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you've had it, it can't get off of it. And

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these politicians are are addicted to that spending. If you

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think twenty years ago, if we could have done without it,

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then surely we can get to the point where we

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don't need it now. A lot of the government you

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would think, you would think, and a lot of the

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government spending is going to immediately impact people in ways

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they never imagine. And again that's where that pushback is

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going to come from. But if social security is not

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on the table, which I am one hundred percent with

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the clients that we work with, Carrie, you can imagine

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social security is a big part of what we plan around.

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I'm not a big advocate of touching social security. It

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needs reform, it needs to probably be on the backs

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of those who are say under the age of fifty,

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and maybe it is means tested to a certain degree.

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But if we get into cutting things, I think social

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security should be off of the table. With that being said,

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we know that we've got to be a strong country,

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so our war budget should be off of the table

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as well. Our defense is spending. But here's what I think,

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go ahead carry.

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Speaker 3: I don't know about that, because look, the half the

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money that the Defense Department spends is probably wasted here right, This.

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Speaker 1: Is where I was actually getting to that. I think

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a lot of a lot of fluff is in the

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defense spending budget. A lot of people have probably made

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a whole lot of money carry, as you can imagine,

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by charging four hundred times what a bolt should cost

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or what a piece of scrap metal should cost. This

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type of expense can be weeded out of the Defense

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Department and we're still strong. You think about advancements like

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technology enhancements in war and defense that could also help

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a ton when it comes to staying a strong country,

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keeping our border secure. But cutting some expenses here's a

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big one. Though you asked me, what can we cut?

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I think one of the things that we need to

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stop doing is assisting countries who don't like us or

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don't really need the assistance. This type of shipping money

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overseas when we have people in North Carolina who are

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still feeling the effects of the hurricane, I don't think

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a single dollar should be sent to countries to fight

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their battles until North Carolina and Florida looks as if

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it never happened.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I couldn't agree with you more and so

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so you know, but they're having the spending wordy to

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the very end, isn't it.

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Speaker 1: This is true, That's exactly right. And when the music stops,

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I'm afraid that the market might not react favorably to

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it either, you know, thinking of the PPI if the

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thinks do this, if the Fed continues to cut, which

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is again what they expect to do, I've even heard

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talks that they're considering a cut in March as well,

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already predicting that the market is buying that up. They're

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already taking that into effect. And you know this very well, Kerrie.

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They have already priced in December's price cut. So if

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a price, if a rate cut, becomes a rate pause,

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well now we see an immediate reaction in the market,

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and that reaction sets people up who have been predicting

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recession or been predicting a pullback. This is it, and

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so it becomes a fulfilled prophecy that was self fulfilled

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and it's all a house of cards if we're not careful.

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Speaker 4: All right, So what is the investors supposed to do here?

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Speaker 3: The market? The market's looking a little toppy right now.

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It hasn't done much as of late. Do you think

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that's going to be the.

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Speaker 4: Future here or what? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I do think we'll see. We'll see this constant bounce

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off of the support and restraint until eventually something breaks through.

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Either we have this potential growth opportunity that we hope

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comes from a Trump presidency, or we could see the

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markets start to take a nose dive if inflation rears

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its ugly head, and God forbid, the Fed has to

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now start hiking rates once again to combat that side

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of their dual mandate. What an investor should be doing

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from our perspective, we deal with a lot of people

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who are close to retirement, and here's where we have

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to be. If we're close to retirement, losses hurt us

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more than gains help us. In this environment, we have

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to be conservative in our approach. I like buffered strategies

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if we want to still participate in market upside but

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have some downside protection. There are buffered ETFs that buy

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packaged options for us that give us upside participation and

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some downside protection along the way. I like those for

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an individual who still wants to have equity exposure if

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you're considering setting on the sidelines, though, you know, a

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four and a half percent type of money market, it's

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not a bad place to be to see how things

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shake out. So a cash like position isn't terrible. Gold

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is touchy right now. Gold, in my opinion, could be

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a place that you could lose a lot of money,

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or you could see a little bit of capital appreciation.

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I don't expect it to grow much. I don't expect

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gold stock to appreciate much, but we could see volatility

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in gold, especially perhaps bitcoin. I know you're a big

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fan of bitcoin. If bitcoin ever becomes an actual alternative

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to gold, we could see people flooding out of gold

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and into bitcoin, which would help the bitcoin and crypto investors.

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But those who are looking for the security and stability

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of gold, you're aware of this. Over the last couple

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of months, we haven't felt that stability in the gold crisis.

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Speaker 3: All right, So so interesting, interesting situation here. You got

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a wonder of you know, this situation seems to be unsustainable, right.

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Speaker 1: I hate to use that word, but it is. It's

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certainly going to have to change in some capacity. Things

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can't continue to go up and again if you're an

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investor who is considering retirement anytime soon. The number one

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rule of investing carry me and you both came up

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with this. You bilo and you sell high. If you

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are considering sales, now is the time when the music stops,

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it could be too late. I like to think of

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the game that we used to play as kids, Musical Chairs, Right.

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Musical Chairs is that game where eventually chairs start disappearing

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and the music stops, and you've got to find a seat.

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I think more people have gotten involved in the game

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recently than ever before because of how the market has

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increased month after month after month, and like you said,

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good news continues. But when more people get in than

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there are seats and the music actually stops, for our investors,

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we just want to make sure we're really close to

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a seat and we're safe to play for the next

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round of the game.

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Speaker 4: So you don't think we're going to get tired of winning.

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Speaker 1: Well, I don't think we get tired of winning internally,

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but I do think that with one pull it could

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be a house of cards.

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Speaker 3: What is your opinion, could be a house of cards

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or like you said, a balloon landing.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely yeah, And in that analogy. The balloon landing is

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what we think is going to be solved ends up

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seeing the nose of the plane starts to rise. And

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it's all about the inputs in the controls that you

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put in there as to whether or not you land

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safely or you crash all together. I don't yeah, I

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don't have a faith in the bed.

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Speaker 3: We could say it would be a partial parachute opening, right,

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doesn't kill you, doesn't kill you, but you're not going

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to land softly and bounce on your butt. You could

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get injured in the process.

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Speaker 1: Right, you might have some bumps bruises along the way, Yes, sir.

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Speaker 3: All right, Hey, Dale, Just tell us where do we

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find you on the internet. How do we connect with you?

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Speaker 1: Yes, sir, so our firm Ardismother's Wealth Management. You can

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find us at rdswealth dot com. You can catch our podcasts,

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the Retirement Matters podcast on any podcast streaming service of

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your choice, railba to our website, sign up for our newsletter,

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or shoot us an email.

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Speaker 4: All right, excellent.

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Speaker 3: Hey, The link is in the show notes of this

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interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. While you're there,

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well asked that you sign up for your free newsletter,

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like sixty other sixty thousand plus other FSN members have.

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And I've got a question for Dale myself. Shoot me

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an email kl atcarrielots dot com. Dale, We'll talk to

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you in real soon. Thanks, talk soon. Thank you, Kery,

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thanks for listening to Carrie Let's this Financial Survival Network

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your solution to today's trying times.

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Speaker 4: For the latest, go to.

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Speaker 2: Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,