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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Blitz everyone college football, all the biggest

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games we're about to talk about. Joining me of course,

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my good friends Ross Benjamin and Ralph Michaels. We've got

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a lot on the docket. LSU, Alabama, Texas A and

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M Missouri, Oregon, Iowa, Nordre Dame, Navy. Well, it's a

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big spread, but it's a game I think a lot

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of people be watching Saturday night. And of course our

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top ten showdown is Texas Tech and BYU this week,

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a top ten showdown with a double digit spread on

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my ad. Also, any game you got besides those that

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you guys want to talk about, feel free if you're

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watching the chat, drop us a comment and we will

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be happy to answer those after we get through our rundown. Ross,

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I'm gonna go to you first, and we're gonna start

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in the SEC. I hope I did catch you there.

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LSB talk LSU and Alabama. This obviously preseason most seasons,

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is one of the more marquee games to look forward

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to in the conference. But LSU, well, they didn't like

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Brian Kelly so much. They decided we'll give you fifty

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four and a half million dollars to go away. What

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a world we live in and they're off a bye.

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Ralph has mentioned it several times on the show before.

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I know we all have that there's been a new

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coach bump for a lot of teams in that first game.

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We saw Florida cover for an interim last week against Georgia.

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Speaking of the SEC, what do you think here? I

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kind of think I want to fire if I were

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to play this game, I would actually fire on the

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dog LSU Alabama, who I know you before the start

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of the season, and I agreed with you might be

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a good bet to win the National championship. They lose

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their first game and then what happens? They haven't lost since,

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but they've been out gained ross in three straight games,

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and that is what has me concerned. What do you

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think here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I don't see them getting out gained here. Yeah.

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I went into this, Brian, looking at this line, and

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I just think that Alabama's undervalue in this spot. I

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really do. Why said al Let's use defense is good,

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but they get worn down, you know, especially against a

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potent offense like Alabama, and their offense is just so

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limited and it has been so disappointing this season that

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I just think they're getting too much respect because of

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their brand name here, because Alabama to me, is clearly

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the better team, and I think they're clearly the better

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team by a couple of touchdowns, especially at home. So

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I'm gonna go with Bama in this spot way to

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ten points. I just think that this isn't as a

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marquee matchup as it's been in prior years. It's lacks

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a little bit of luster here, and it's mostly because LSU,

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not because of Alabama. And yeah, they've been out game

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for the last three weeks. I know Ralph likes to

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look at that kind of stuff, but I just don't

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see LSU being able to match them offensive and I

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think that's gonna be the big difference here.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Ralph Ross telling me basically abpiece to keep that

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money that you want to spend on LSU in your pocket.

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I don't think so. RJ in the chat there, by

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the way, noting that the show is quickly becoming one

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of his favorites. Thank you, RJ. RJ. Also, as we

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can tell from his little logo there on YouTube, he

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knows LSU and he points out you talking about the

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LSU defense wearing down Ross. No wit weeks. They're calling

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you demand Ralph in the chat by the way, so

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I am going to say, what do you think I mean?

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I to me, I don't know. I'm typically a dog player,

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so it would be dogger pass. But Ross made some

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good points there about Alabama. What do you think is

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there any Is there anything to the fact that Alabama's

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been out gaining three three weeks.

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Speaker 3: No, I mean, let's look at what they've been out

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gained by Brian five five yards, thirty seven.

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Speaker 4: Yards, and eight yards. I mean that's you know.

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Speaker 3: You looks weeks, their plus twenty six yards per game.

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Speaker 4: You should be mentioning that LSU got out game.

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Speaker 3: Two hundred and twenty six yard at Old Miss, got

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out gained at Vanderbilt by seventy four yards, and got

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mauled against Texas A and m got out gained by

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one hundred and forty eight yards.

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Speaker 4: I agree with Ross. You look at the last four.

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Speaker 3: Weeks, LSU is getting out gained by eighty six yards

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per game. Their defense has allowed four hundred and eighty

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and four hundred and twenty six yards twice, and their

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rush defense the last two games against Vanderbilt and A

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and M two hundred and thirty nine yards and five

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point three yards per carry two weeks ago two hundred

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and twenty four yards and five point six yards per carry.

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We know that Bama wants to pass the ball more

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with Ty Simpson then run the ball, but they only

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have seventeen more passes than rushes. When Bama gets in trouble,

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they don't run the ball well. Against Florida State, they

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ran for eighty seven yards three point zero. Last week

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against South Carolina in a game where they only won

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by seven, they only rushed for seventy two yards per carry.

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They're gonna rush for two hundred yards. They're gonna win

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this game handily. It's still in the mix to be

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one of my client plays, So Bama for me.

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Speaker 1: Okay, there you have it. I came into this show saying, hey,

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maybe the dog after Fire and Brian Kelly might be

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worth a look. Ralph and Ross both told me, no,

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don't do that VP. That would be a bad idea.

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So very have it. What do you guys think of

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this game? Feel free to let us know again in

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down in the comments section. While you're down there and

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that thumbs up button show your support here for the blitz.

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That way you'll be instantly notified when the show goes live,

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as we do every one pm on Thursday, with one

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exception coming up. I'm sure you guys are worth Thanksgiving

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a very popular holiday in the month of November. That week,

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we will be going live on Wednesday, because of course

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Thanksgiving foals on a Thursday always has it's the beginning

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of time. So Wednesday, the week of Thanksgiving, we will

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be on one day earlier to help you out. And

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of course, remember that week is a busy week of

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college football with the nice slate on Friday, So see

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you then. But we've got more games to talk about

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this week, guys. And I mentioned Alabama LSU may not

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be a top ten matchup, but I'll tell you what

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it is. Ross is Texas Tech against BYU. Yeah, this

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is it. This is one to me that would maybe

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be a contender for you. Does this line make sense?

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Segment on Wager Talk today, Because we have BYU. They

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have not lost the game. They are off by They're

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getting ten in Lubbock. Now, I am not a BYU believer,

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I apologized to all you Mormons out there, but I

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think Texas Tech is the better team. I agree with

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this line being at ten. Personally, what do you think

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here is BYU likely to go down for the first

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time this season?

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Speaker 2: I love Texas Tech in this spot. I mean the

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bottom line. You hit it right on the nail on

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the head. You got the lower ranked team with one

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loss on a season as a double digit favorite against

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the higher ranked team that's eight and zero and coming

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off a bye week. I trust the odds makers a

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hell of a lot more than I do to posters.

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You've heard me say this time and time again throughout

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the course of our shows. This to me is a

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fishy line being the size. I think a lot of

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people get sucked in on the sizeable undefeated, underdog and

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higher ranked team. I'm not going to be one of them.

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As a matter of fact, you know I went into

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the database, Ralph, you'd be interested. This is right up

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your alley when you have a college football undefeated team. Now,

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this is not a betting trend. It's a betting angle.

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A trend is specific teams. A betting angle applies to

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all teams in specific situation or situations. A college football

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under our undefeated team playing after game seven in a season,

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so game eight and beyond, and they're away underdog of

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five and a half for greater. They're playing a team

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like Texas Tech with a win percentage of eight to

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fifty seven or better. But they do have they are

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they're not undefeated, which most likely the eight fifty seven

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are better this late in the year game eight on

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one lost team, So it applies perfectly to this situation.

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In those college football undefeated teams is a way underdog

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a five and a half for greater in this specific situation,

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two and twelve against the spread zero and fourteen straight up.

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The average line in those fourteen games the away underdog

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was an average a plus eight point one, and they

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lost by an average of nineteen point three points per game.

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This speaks volumes to me. I don't put all my

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eggs in one basket on a at an angle, but

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it certainly supports the other things I'm looking at. You know,

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Texas Tech five and oh straight up and ats at

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home this year and they won by twenty five points

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or more on each occasion and allowed just ten point

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four points per game in two hundred and thirty eight

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yards per contest, and Rolf, you'll like this at home.

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In those five wins, they're allowing just three point six

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yards per play. On the other hand, BYU five and

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zero one conference play, but they're allowing close to three

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hundred and eighty six yards per contest and conference play.

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And since twenty twenty one, Texas Tech by the way,

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seven and oh straight up in ats against FBS teams

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as a home favored of five or greater, winning by

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thirty five points per contest, Texas Tech for me, Brian.

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Speaker 1: All right, so the first game, maybe Ross and I

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had a different. Ross basically told me where to take

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my idea, but we were on the same side. See

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Titan ct is in the chat as well. He leans

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the oil money lay in tend with the Red Raiders. Obviously,

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they went out and spent a lot of nil many odds,

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that's why they're this good. And he makes a lot

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of good points Ralph. Obviously, also we should mention the

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BYU running back Martin. He is questionable play and BYU.

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I look, look, you give teams credit for winning, right, guys,

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but let's go let's peel back this BYU schedule. They

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were neck and neck with Iowa State. They were all

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home dog to rival Utah. That's a game where Kyle Whittingham,

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I'm not gonna take the points. Guy with field goals often,

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but if Kyle Whittingham would have taken the points, Utah

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could have won that game, could have won that additional

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Holy War. And let's also not forget BYU early in

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the season on the road as they are here, Ralph

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fell behind old coach Prime in Colorado, so they've been

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living dangerously. Is this where do we make it a

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clean sweep? Is this kind of where it ends for

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the coops?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I was showing my pen because Ross stole one of

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my systems, and this Penn says, stat Daddy say, you

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need to ask my permission before you use that.

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Speaker 4: It's a little suit. But I will just share with you.

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Speaker 3: You know, one of the trends I did on the

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bet and a bet on a TA segment, if you

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take an away dog of three or more, again, a

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lot of this is rehashed or the same subset of Ross,

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but an away dog of three or more that has

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at least seven wins and no losses versus an opponent

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that has a loss it doesn't matter ross if they're

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eighty five percent or higher, all they have to do

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is have at least one loss. Those undefeated away dogs

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of three or more with at least seven wins have

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gone ten and twenty six twenty eight percent against the spread.

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So either way you look at it, the plus three,

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the plus five and a half, the win percentages, it

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just shows you that you're a dog for a reason,

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and there's no way I can back BYU. You look

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at a team that played one of the weakest schedules

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when you look at conference when you look at conference play,

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Texas Tech has played eight slots better. I have Texas

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Tech with the number four twenty fourth toughest conference schedule

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BYU number thirty two. Texas Tech has been a statistical dynamo.

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They're number eight in the country plus one point seven

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yards per play BYU is all the way back to

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forty two at plus two at plus point four to

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nine yards per play.

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Speaker 4: And then you look at the Texas Tech defense, their.

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Speaker 3: Top fifteen as far as holding their foes under what

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their opponents allow. They do run the ball. This isn't

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the old air raid. I mean they've had some games

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they went to Houston. They ran the ball fifty times.

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They ran the ball forty times against Kansas They ran

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the ball forty four times against Kansas State last week

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for one hundred and eighty seven yards. Look at BYU's

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defense the last two games. They allowed four hundred and

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seventy yards to Utah, including two hundred twenty six to

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six point one yards per carry rush. Should they allowed

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four hundred and ninety five yards to Iowa State.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that cyclones.

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Speaker 3: Offense four hundred ninety five yards and twenty four first downs.

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Speaker 1: It's Tech for me, all day, all night, all right,

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Texas Tech seems to be a clean sweep here from

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the panel, and that some of you in the chat

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seem to agree as well. How about here's a question

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for you guys in the chat. If you guys, or

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if you're well, ay even not even if you're watching

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this live, if you're just catching us on the replay,

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feel free to conway, what would be a good moneyline

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parlay piece to put with Texas Tech. I fear into

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that kind of thing. Just give us your best answers,

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just a reason. Let's keep this thing interactive. And speaking

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of keeping it interactive, here let's go back to the

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SEC because this game is on our rundown. Many of

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you are asking about it. Texas A and M. Some

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people thought they should have may've been a little higher

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in the college football rankings there. Ross, they are still

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undefeated as well, just like BYU get a little more respective.

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Playing a Missouri team guys that obviously has injuries at

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the quarterback position. For Bula goes down would have been

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a different Who knows. If he wouldn't gotten hurt, maybe

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it'd have a different story against Vandy for the Tigers.

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But last he's hurt, they lost that game. What do

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we think here? There's seems to be some skepticism in

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our chat about this Texas A and M team. Ross,

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what do you think did they slip up here or

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do they keep it rolling?

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Speaker 2: Well? I mean I think they would have had a

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better chance of slipping up if Missouri's top quarterback didn't

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go down. What I do like in this game is

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the under if you look at both of these teams

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and conference play. Defensively, they've both been stout. I mean,

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Missouri's a good team look and their defense has carried

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them a lot because they're only two losses. You look

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at They lose by three at home the Alabama, and

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they lose by seven at Vanderbilt. Two pretty damn good teams.

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The last I checked in this Texas A and M team.

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They have an explosive offense.

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Speaker 5: Uh.

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Speaker 2: But I think what gets vastly overlooked with Texas A

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and M is how good their defense has been. And

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I see this playing out as a low, lower scoring affair.

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Missouri certainly can't afford to get in the track meet

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with Texas A, and I'm here to have a chance.

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So very small lean though, Brian on under forty seven

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and a half.

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Speaker 1: Okay, there you go, Ralph, what do you think here?

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We have a small lean to the under from Ross?

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What angle would you be taking on this one? A third,

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the third string quarterback by the way, for Missoo is

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a true freshman.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I was gonna say a true freshman. He did

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play well, but that it's so much different coming in

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and going twenty of twenty nine, you know, in a

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backup role versus the team prepping for you as A

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and N is It's scary that Ross and I have

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basically agreed on the first three games. Not scary because

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I'm happy to agree with wager Talk's number one college

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football handicap for the last couple of years. But I

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am going to go for I'm going to go Missouri

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team total under. Missouri is gonna run the ball. There's

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no question with a true freshman against this defense. This

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defense has thirty two sacks on the year. The Missouri

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OH line is decent.

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Speaker 4: You know, when you have Hardy who rushes for five

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point nine and you have Robert Sue rushes for six

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point five yards per carry. That opens up some holes.

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Speaker 3: But both teams are basically facing the top rush defenses

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they faced all year. I think I think Missouri. I'll

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actually correct what I meant to say. I'm gonna go

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Missouri team total first half under. They're gonna need a

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lot of time to get this quarterback situated. They're likely

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gonna kick off first to let their defense try to

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control the game. I don't think they're gonna take the

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ball with a true freshman quarterback defense. I think they

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want to let him settled watch some of the games.

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So to me, if I'm A and M I take

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the ball. If I'm on Missouri, I don't take the ball.

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That's an advantageous edge for being a first half better

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because you likely get one less possession. But the Missouri

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the A and M defense again allowing three point nine

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yards per carry, and the only time they've got rattled

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all year besides the opener against UTSA, they went to Arkansas.

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They allowed two hundred and sixty eight yards per game

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and eight point four yards per carry. But that Arkansas

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rush game and that Arkansas offense is leap years ahead

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of what Missouri is. So for me, conservative game plan

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for the young quarterback for an offense at the last

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four weeks already has only averaged three hundred and fifty

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six yards per game, and that was with privula and

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first half team total.

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Speaker 1: Under for me, all right, drilling it down a little

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bit more with the first half team total under. That's

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the way Ralph is going. Certainly, A and M. You

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don't need to remind me, guys, and I'm played one

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heck of a second half against LSU there two weeks ago.

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Both these teams off byes. It'll be interesting to see

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Amad Hardy, with the running back for Missou, what he

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can do in this matchup. Obviously a lot more pressure

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on him with the injuries at the quarterback position. All right,

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let's take a break from our rundown real quick, Ralph,

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00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,319
I know we have another exclusive deal to let the

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00:18:08,319 --> 00:18:10,400
people know about here on the Blitz. Why don't you

346
00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:11,960
tell everyone about that right now?

347
00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:15,839
Speaker 3: Well, the Weekend Warriors still active, guys, so don't worry.

348
00:18:15,839 --> 00:18:18,480
If you're interested in that, it's a great deal, feel

349
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:21,160
free to do that. But we do have an exclusive

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special just for the three of us, So it's good

351
00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:25,519
for Brian Ross and me, and you can use it

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00:18:25,519 --> 00:18:27,480
as many times as you want on the three of us.

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00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:33,079
It's good through Sunday at midnight. The code is Blitz

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00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:38,359
twenty five, no space, Blitz two five, and it's twenty

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00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:41,039
five percent any package of two ninety.

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00:18:40,799 --> 00:18:44,880
Speaker 4: Nine or more. So, to give you two examples, the

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00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:48,039
rest of the college football season is currently two ninety nine.

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00:18:48,839 --> 00:18:50,200
If you want one of the three.

359
00:18:50,039 --> 00:18:52,200
Speaker 3: Of us for the rest of the season, the code

360
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:55,039
Blitz twenty five will save you seventy four dollars and

361
00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:56,359
seventy five cents.

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00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,480
Speaker 4: You pay just two hundred and twenty four dollars and

363
00:18:59,519 --> 00:19:01,960
twenty five sense. But listen to this.

364
00:19:02,559 --> 00:19:06,319
Speaker 3: If you get the college football and NFL combo, it

365
00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:09,359
is just one hundred and thirty dollars more than the

366
00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:12,519
college football season is by itself. So while the college

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00:19:12,519 --> 00:19:16,240
football is a great deal, seriously, guys, for one hundred

368
00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:18,960
and thirty bucks more for the NFL for the rest

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00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:20,920
of the year, it's a no brainer to me.

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00:19:21,039 --> 00:19:22,960
Speaker 4: So Blitz twenty five. Check it out.

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00:19:23,079 --> 00:19:25,720
Speaker 3: By the way, I have a five percent NFL play

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00:19:25,799 --> 00:19:29,200
tonight in the NFL, and I have a five percent

373
00:19:29,279 --> 00:19:33,640
play loaded already for Saturday. My college football five percents

374
00:19:33,799 --> 00:19:37,720
eleven and two eighty five percent. The last two weeks

375
00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:41,759
I've had totals they've covered by a combined thirty eight points.

376
00:19:42,039 --> 00:19:44,720
Get the Weekend Warrior, Now you'll get that college football

377
00:19:44,759 --> 00:19:45,519
play immediately.

378
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,240
Speaker 1: Ross. I want to give you thank you, by the way,

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00:19:49,319 --> 00:19:51,160
Ralph for doing that. Ross. I want to give you

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00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:53,000
now a chance to talk about what you've got going on,

381
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and I also then want to get into our next

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00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:56,839
game on the rundown. It is a very interesting game.

383
00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:59,599
I think the most interesting game of the weekend because

384
00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:02,960
we were all aligned on Texas Tech again BYU in

385
00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:06,359
the top ten matchup. But for me, the most interesting

386
00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:10,839
game is Oregon Iowa. So you could take it whichever

387
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:14,319
direction you want Ross, if you want to talk, tell

388
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:15,759
the people what you've got going this weekend, and then

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00:20:15,759 --> 00:20:18,720
go right into the breakdown. Feel free. But Oregon I

390
00:20:18,839 --> 00:20:20,680
was next on the dockets, So there you go.

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00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:24,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, Saturday in college football three to five plays not

392
00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,480
posted yet but they will be and a five percent

393
00:20:27,599 --> 00:20:31,240
top play included seven and two in college football five

394
00:20:31,279 --> 00:20:35,160
percent best bets this year. And I'm coming off the

395
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:41,000
first losing weekend in football this since the first week

396
00:20:41,039 --> 00:20:46,359
of September. So beware of the wounded boss. And that's

397
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:49,279
Ross when he when he's coming off a losing week

398
00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:54,480
because I respond more times than that in huge fashion,

399
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,440
and I plan on doing so here and again, don't

400
00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:00,839
forget the three hundred and sixty five days all access

401
00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:04,880
pass as well. Folks, usually nineteen ninety nine, Now it's

402
00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:09,000
fourteen ninety nine, and you're going to get five hundred

403
00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:11,240
dollars off a little more than four dollars a day.

404
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,880
Why do I bring that up because over the last

405
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,720
six months, I've now made a net profit of one

406
00:21:16,799 --> 00:21:20,599
hundred and thirty two units in all sports, and that's

407
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:23,839
even with a terrible week last week. So I'm bouncing

408
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:28,319
back and take advantage of these offers and listen to

409
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,119
what Ralph said too. Those are some pretty damn good

410
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:36,240
offers from me. College football number one in number one,

411
00:21:36,279 --> 00:21:40,240
excuse me a win percentage, number one in return on investment,

412
00:21:41,079 --> 00:21:44,559
number two in units earned twenty six and fourteen this season,

413
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:49,519
sixty five percent over forty units in net profit went

414
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:52,480
number one, and both win percentage and units earned last

415
00:21:52,559 --> 00:21:55,880
year in college football twenty twenty three, I was number

416
00:21:55,880 --> 00:22:00,799
two in my college football and NFL combined, Brian, even

417
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:04,519
with last week where it was just terrible, I'm still

418
00:22:04,519 --> 00:22:07,559
a combined forty and twenty four in college football in

419
00:22:07,599 --> 00:22:13,119
the NFL since September eleventh. So that weekend Warrior special folks,

420
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:16,839
forty nine dollars take advantage of that. It's an absolute steal.

421
00:22:17,559 --> 00:22:20,039
Speaker 1: Yeah, Obviously, bad weekends can happen to happen to me.

422
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:22,960
Two weeks ago. Ross two weeks ago, it bit me,

423
00:22:23,279 --> 00:22:24,960
but we bounced back last week. I'll tell the people

424
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:27,480
about what I've got going on a little bit. You see,

425
00:22:27,519 --> 00:22:29,200
if you're watching us live, you see in the chat

426
00:22:29,279 --> 00:22:31,559
right now, Hey guys, there's any other games you want

427
00:22:31,559 --> 00:22:33,279
to talk. We are going to talk about Oregon Iowa

428
00:22:33,319 --> 00:22:36,559
here in a second Notre Dame Navy as well. That

429
00:22:36,759 --> 00:22:38,920
completes around. Any other games you want to talk about,

430
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:42,039
drop them in the chat and we will be sure

431
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:44,039
to get to them after we get through our rundowns.

432
00:22:44,039 --> 00:22:46,839
So all right, Oregon Iowa. Actually let me go to you, Ralph.

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00:22:46,839 --> 00:22:48,720
I'll give you the first crack, because I know that

434
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,559
you guys were agreeing so much on the first I

435
00:22:51,559 --> 00:22:53,599
want to give you the first crack on one now, Ralph,

436
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:57,240
on this Oregon Iowa metric, I think it's very interesting. Preseason.

437
00:22:57,759 --> 00:23:01,240
I bet Oregon to miss the college football playoff right now,

438
00:23:01,279 --> 00:23:03,039
it does not look like a good bet. That's the

439
00:23:03,079 --> 00:23:05,839
one in my preseason power five that I don't know

440
00:23:05,839 --> 00:23:08,200
if we're gonna get their, folks, But I'm looking at

441
00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:12,680
this Oregon schedule, guys. Rest of the way, there's some

442
00:23:12,799 --> 00:23:15,920
land mines, and this week Kinnick, it's a tough place

443
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,200
to win. I think Iowa deserves to be ranked. I

444
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:20,319
don't know what you guys can think about that, but

445
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I've got them power rate in the top twenty. Ralph,

446
00:23:23,839 --> 00:23:26,160
is Iowa live here? Can they pull the upset or

447
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:27,240
at least stay within the number?

448
00:23:30,519 --> 00:23:36,160
Speaker 3: Oh my nope, You know, you look at their defense

449
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and you say, oh my god, they can slow anybody.

450
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They're only allowing two hundred and thirty five yards per game,

451
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They're only allowing eighty four yards rushing and three point

452
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six yards per carry, and they are only allowing fifty

453
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five point eight percent completions.

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Speaker 4: Those are absolutely amazing numbers.

455
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Speaker 3: But let me just quickly go out on their schedule

456
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:06,640
and tell me how many top thirty offenses you see.

457
00:24:06,759 --> 00:24:11,759
Iowa State U masked Rutgers. Rutgers is a top thirty.

458
00:24:11,759 --> 00:24:16,240
They allowed four hundred yards Indiana. They lost to Indiana.

459
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They played a good game against Indiana, allowing three hundred

460
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and thirty seven yards. That was one hundred and eighty

461
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:23,799
nine yards under their average, So I do give them that.

462
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:28,559
And then Wisconsin, Penn State, Minnesota, So their numbers are

463
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based on their very weak set of offenses they faced.

464
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Indiana to me, was in a situation where they're still

465
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learning how to win.

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Speaker 4: Granted, they got there.

467
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Speaker 3: Last year, they got to the playoffs, but a unique

468
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:47,440
situation for Oregon. You you got to Penn State, you

469
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win that game. Penn State was still a partial team

470
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at that point. You come home, you lose to Indiana.

471
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You go take out your frustrations against Rutgers with seven

472
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hundred and fifty yards. You play Wisconsin another good defense

473
00:25:00,039 --> 00:25:02,359
and that is three hundred and thirty five yards. So

474
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you see that they have been slowed couple times against

475
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Big ten defenses. But I think that helps them here.

476
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The difference is against Indiana, they couldn't rush the ball,

477
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:17,200
and even though Iowa's got some good rush defense numbers,

478
00:25:17,519 --> 00:25:20,279
they did allow one hundred and seventy yards to Penn State,

479
00:25:20,519 --> 00:25:23,240
they allowed Wisconsin one hundred and twenty seven yards. I

480
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:26,480
think that's the difference in this game. Oregon will be

481
00:25:26,559 --> 00:25:30,039
able to rush on Iowa. Last couple games for Oregon

482
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,160
two hundred plus yards, they've topped two hundred yards rushings

483
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:36,720
five times. They're averaging six point three yards per carry

484
00:25:37,039 --> 00:25:39,599
in Big Ten play, They're averaging five point eight yards

485
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:42,200
per carry in two hundred and ten yards per game.

486
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:45,319
It's not gonna make my card, it's not even in

487
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:49,880
my top twenty, but I think Oregon does get it

488
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:50,920
done against Iowa.

489
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:53,400
Speaker 4: I think them seeing couple tough.

490
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:56,880
Speaker 3: Defenses in Indiana Wisconsin clearly helps them in this situation

491
00:25:57,559 --> 00:26:01,200
versus Iowa facing the fastest team faced all season.

492
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:06,880
Speaker 1: Okay, Ralph not buying the dog in this spot ross

493
00:26:07,519 --> 00:26:09,319
Titans CT. In the chat, he brought up a point,

494
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:12,839
Yes this is true. Dan Lanning, he head coach of Oregon.

495
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:16,880
Of course he was. He whined and got this kickoff

496
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,599
time moved down to three thirty. He did not want

497
00:26:19,599 --> 00:26:23,519
the noon eastern kickoff, obviously Oregon coming from the Pacific

498
00:26:23,559 --> 00:26:25,599
time zones. Since the Big ten expan that there's been

499
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:29,319
a lot of discourse, rightfully, so about you know, the

500
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,240
teams out west starting early, the teams from out east

501
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:36,160
kicking off late? What do you think Roth? Three thirty? Good?

502
00:26:36,279 --> 00:26:39,640
Nice neutral kickoff for these two teams from different times.

503
00:26:39,799 --> 00:26:41,319
How do you handicap this one?

504
00:26:41,599 --> 00:26:45,759
Speaker 2: Yeah? I I you know, I again I agree with Ralph.

505
00:26:46,039 --> 00:26:48,960
It's really scary, right, Ralph, for four games in a row.

506
00:26:49,039 --> 00:26:53,519
Now we agreed. I'm almost gonna disagree with you on

507
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:56,319
Navy Notre Dames, just so we don't jinx each other.

508
00:26:56,720 --> 00:27:00,920
But in any event, look, here's the difference. I see,

509
00:27:02,559 --> 00:27:07,480
Iowa's improved offensively compared to what they've been, but there's

510
00:27:07,519 --> 00:27:12,759
still borderline and neemic. I mean, yeah, they're very misleading.

511
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,440
Thirty one point three points per game when you consider

512
00:27:15,519 --> 00:27:19,279
the fact they're only averaging three hundred and eighteen yards

513
00:27:19,319 --> 00:27:25,519
per contest and they're only averaging five point two yards

514
00:27:25,559 --> 00:27:28,440
per play. Then you go on the other side in Oregon.

515
00:27:29,319 --> 00:27:33,720
Everybody thinks about Iowa's defense, and that's the main thing

516
00:27:33,799 --> 00:27:36,359
to look at, and usually they have the better defense

517
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:39,960
in any matchup they play against the opposition for the

518
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:44,519
most part. But I beg to differ here because Oregon's

519
00:27:44,599 --> 00:27:48,640
defense is probably the most overlooked part of their game,

520
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,960
and they're only averaging allowing sixteen points per game and

521
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,759
two hundred and sixty three point seven yards per contest.

522
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:58,319
This Oregon's offense, this is where the difference comes in.

523
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,039
You're looking at it a team that's averaging five hundred

524
00:28:02,039 --> 00:28:06,240
and seventeen yards per game and eight point one yards

525
00:28:06,279 --> 00:28:10,519
per play, and that's on the road. Okay, So in

526
00:28:10,599 --> 00:28:13,240
all games, they're averaging four hundred and eighty five point

527
00:28:13,279 --> 00:28:16,440
one yards per game and seven point five yards per

528
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:21,039
play on the road, Ralph, this Oregon team is plus

529
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:25,480
three point nine yards per play net. Okay. When you

530
00:28:25,519 --> 00:28:30,319
look at Iowa again at home, they're plus one point seven.

531
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:34,839
But overall, again I just think Oregon's offense this is

532
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:39,079
a protal, a typical example of a team that might

533
00:28:39,119 --> 00:28:41,119
be able to stay in the game with their defense

534
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:46,319
early meaning Iowa. But I just see Oregon wearing them

535
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:49,599
down from an offensive standpoint, because they're able to stay

536
00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:52,079
on the field and sustain drives a lot more than

537
00:28:52,519 --> 00:28:55,880
IOWA does. And if they can stay away from turnovers,

538
00:28:56,480 --> 00:29:00,559
especially creating short fields and not giving up a special

539
00:29:00,599 --> 00:29:04,759
team's return touchdown, that's where IOWA has really amped up

540
00:29:04,799 --> 00:29:07,720
their points per game as compared to what they're really

541
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:11,279
gaining per contest. I think Oregon wins this game by

542
00:29:11,319 --> 00:29:13,640
a couple of touchdowns. I'm going to take the Ducks here,

543
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:16,119
le six on the road.

544
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:19,359
Speaker 1: All right, we got some Duck believers here on the panel, Ralph.

545
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 2: Yes.

546
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 3: Let me just add one more thing for the Oregon Ducks.

547
00:29:23,839 --> 00:29:26,519
Their offense are almost like hockey lines.

548
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 4: Listen.

549
00:29:27,559 --> 00:29:29,799
Speaker 3: Listen to these Listen to these stats for their four

550
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:33,839
running backs this year. Wittington four hundred and thirty three

551
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:38,400
yards eight point five yards per carry, four TDS. Hill

552
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:42,440
three hundred and fifty seven yards nine point nine yards

553
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:47,319
per carry, three TDS. Davison three hundred and fifty two

554
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:51,799
yards seven point zero yards per carry, ten tds and

555
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:56,720
uh Lemur five point nine yards per carry three tds.

556
00:29:56,759 --> 00:30:00,359
That is four running backs two hundred and fifty yards

557
00:30:00,599 --> 00:30:03,039
six yards per carry, and all of them have three

558
00:30:03,039 --> 00:30:06,240
touchdowns or more. When you have that type of depth

559
00:30:06,839 --> 00:30:09,240
in your backfield, that is damn scary.

560
00:30:10,519 --> 00:30:13,039
Speaker 1: It is. And look, all your guys points are well taken.

561
00:30:13,079 --> 00:30:15,559
I'm gonna say this stuff. Maybe it's not this week,

562
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,519
but Oregon still has USC. They still have Washington. For

563
00:30:19,559 --> 00:30:20,799
those of you in the chat who are a little

564
00:30:20,799 --> 00:30:23,519
skeptical about this team, maybe like I am, this Oregon team,

565
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:25,400
they're gonna lose before the end of the regulars. They will

566
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:27,480
drop one game. It may not be here, but Oregon

567
00:30:27,519 --> 00:30:30,680
will drop a game before the end of the regular season.

568
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:32,720
I'm gonna I see a Miller like bet on the

569
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:33,160
line here.

570
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 4: Brian.

571
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 2: Okay, Brian, who is I mean? You're talking about land Mines.

572
00:30:39,119 --> 00:30:41,240
What are the four games? I mean? I know they.

573
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:45,359
Speaker 1: Play that, they're at Washington and they host USC. I

574
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,359
think USC is a good football team. And remember Lincoln

575
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:50,680
Riley does not have to leave the Pacific time zone

576
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:51,119
for that game.

577
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 2: Always yeah, but I mean again, USC. If that game

578
00:30:55,079 --> 00:30:58,640
was at USC, I could see it USC to go

579
00:30:58,759 --> 00:31:03,400
into Oregon in the position Oregon's in, going in undefeated

580
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,720
and looking for one of those top four seeds. I

581
00:31:06,759 --> 00:31:09,000
don't see it, but you know, again, we'll see how

582
00:31:09,039 --> 00:31:09,720
it plays out.

583
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 4: Ran just the longest Fyi, Brian. My power ratings have.

584
00:31:15,519 --> 00:31:21,079
Speaker 3: Oregon only by eleven and a half at home against USC.

585
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:25,319
Speaker 4: So I you know, I can stranger things have happened.

586
00:31:25,319 --> 00:31:26,839
Speaker 1: It's college football November.

587
00:31:29,039 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 2: I agree with you. They are a good team. I

588
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:32,000
don't know.

589
00:31:32,039 --> 00:31:34,319
Speaker 1: Well, we'll see, We'll see. Like I said, stranger things.

590
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:37,119
I just feel like Oregon, everyone's just assumes they're gonna

591
00:31:37,119 --> 00:31:39,160
be the playff. You know what they say about when

592
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:41,599
you assume, all right, we have one more game. I

593
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:43,960
assume Notre Dame is gonna beat Navy this week. Guys,

594
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:46,240
but we have a very large point spread to talk about.

595
00:31:46,319 --> 00:31:50,039
And I generally like service academies as underdogs. Now Navy

596
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:52,920
they've failed to cover five row. They were unbeaten though

597
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,799
by the way, going to last week they ran into

598
00:31:55,799 --> 00:32:00,720
the old mean green of North Texas. They the odds

599
00:32:00,759 --> 00:32:03,680
makers were telling you there, Bross that what they thought

600
00:32:04,079 --> 00:32:07,279
that they tried to tell the people that Navy was

601
00:32:07,319 --> 00:32:09,799
going to suffer their first loss, and sure enough they did.

602
00:32:09,839 --> 00:32:12,519
North Texas look good. Notre Dame another one of those

603
00:32:12,519 --> 00:32:14,759
teams trying it that just basically obviously they just need

604
00:32:14,759 --> 00:32:17,079
to win out. They're in the college football playoff. What

605
00:32:17,119 --> 00:32:21,279
do you think here? Believe it? My Power Ratings actually

606
00:32:21,279 --> 00:32:24,960
said this number was short at the open. The market agrees.

607
00:32:25,039 --> 00:32:28,440
Notre Dame's taken some money. But I don't want to

608
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:32,119
lay this. I know Navy, it's not you know, the

609
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,839
nineteen fifties. They're not totally going to slow it down,

610
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:36,920
and the game got away from them last year against

611
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:38,640
Nordre Dame. But I don't like laying this many points

612
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:39,759
against the Service academy.

613
00:32:39,839 --> 00:32:40,319
Speaker 4: I just don't.

614
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you look at the last two matchups.

615
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:47,279
Navy went into the Notre Dame game last year as

616
00:32:47,319 --> 00:32:49,720
a six to zero team and nationally ranked and lose

617
00:32:49,799 --> 00:32:51,240
fifty one fourteen.

618
00:32:52,359 --> 00:32:53,759
Speaker 1: Notre Dame was awesome in that game.

619
00:32:54,319 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah. And the year before they played in Ireland

620
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,880
and Notre Dame one forty two to three. Both games

621
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:05,400
were under Navy head coach Brian Newberry, who's now in

622
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,960
his third year. So Brian Newberry's had very little success

623
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:12,640
against Notre Dame and you know, joined the club because

624
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:14,480
a lot of teams in the last couple of years

625
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,440
haven't had a lot of success against Notre Dame. You

626
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:20,640
know the big thing here, I'd like to I just

627
00:33:20,799 --> 00:33:26,400
can't lay a number this big confidently. But if you

628
00:33:26,519 --> 00:33:30,920
put the proverbial gun to my head. Look, here's the thing. Navy.

629
00:33:31,079 --> 00:33:34,799
Still they're an improved passing team, and I'm sure Ralph

630
00:33:34,799 --> 00:33:38,119
will point that out. They have a very good quarterback

631
00:33:38,119 --> 00:33:40,920
and Blake Corbat who could beat you both with his

632
00:33:41,119 --> 00:33:46,559
arm and his legs. However, still their cup of tea

633
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:49,079
is running the ball, and that's their strength. And you

634
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:52,319
look at even last week and I lost against North Texas.

635
00:33:52,839 --> 00:33:55,279
They had three hundred and eleven yards rushing, four hundred

636
00:33:55,319 --> 00:33:57,640
and eleven yards offense. We killed them last week they

637
00:33:57,720 --> 00:34:01,160
all gained North Texas. The problem was, well, they weren't.

638
00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:03,400
They did not a game. I take them back, but

639
00:34:04,599 --> 00:34:08,599
they were all game by just thirty three yards. But

640
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:11,199
turnovers killed them. I mean they were They turned the

641
00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:14,440
ball over three times. They didn't force any turnovers, and

642
00:34:14,639 --> 00:34:19,920
you look at Navy's turnover differential, and it's pretty pretty

643
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,679
much about even. But you look at Notre Dame. Look

644
00:34:22,679 --> 00:34:27,039
at Notre Dame. In their last six games, they forced.

645
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:30,239
Speaker 4: Three three, three, four two two.

646
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:37,239
Speaker 2: Turnovers and they've forced let me see, three, six, nine, thirteen, fifteen, seventeen, eighteen,

647
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:39,599
and they've only turned the ball over eight times. They're

648
00:34:39,639 --> 00:34:46,880
plus ten turnover margin. And Navy, don't forget folks again,

649
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:50,280
they're calling carricters. Their run game and their past game

650
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:53,480
has improved, Ralph. But the bottom line is they're not

651
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:58,199
built to come from behind. And I just don't see

652
00:34:58,199 --> 00:35:03,000
how they stay in this game competitively where they could

653
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:06,679
just continue to run the ball time after time, and

654
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,239
Notre Dame's pretty darn good against the run, Ralph, the

655
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:10,400
last time I checked.

656
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 4: Damn you Ross, all right, so let me let me

657
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:18,840
say this.

658
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,519
Speaker 3: You say, oh my god, you know Navy is rushing

659
00:35:21,559 --> 00:35:25,119
the last four games two hundred eighty two yards per

660
00:35:25,159 --> 00:35:28,360
game and six point seven yards per carry. But I

661
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:32,360
want to point out two things. How many FBS teams

662
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:32,760
are there?

663
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:38,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you're talking about Air Force Temple Florida

664
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:40,559
Atlantic in nortyn exactly.

665
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:45,960
Speaker 3: Okay, there's one hundred and thirty six FBS teams. We've

666
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:49,239
played seven, eight or nine games this college football season.

667
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:52,599
Navy has played the number one hundred and forty six

668
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:57,239
toughest schedule. That means thirteen at least thirteen FCS teams

669
00:35:57,360 --> 00:36:00,679
have played a tougher schedule the last four games that

670
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:05,800
Ross just mentioned. Those teams have rush defenses of one,

671
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:12,159
twenty nine, one thirty, one, twenty four, and one fifteen.

672
00:36:12,639 --> 00:36:16,039
Now one team better than the one hundred and fifteenth rush defense.

673
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:20,159
Oh yeah, by the way, Notre Dame number twelve. Let's

674
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:26,440
also remember it is much different playing a option team

675
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:31,280
if you don't regularly see them. Well, guess what. Notre

676
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:34,639
Dame preps for this every summer. They see Navy every year.

677
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:38,360
In fact, last year they played Navy and Army, so

678
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:41,000
they saw two option teams. So you have a team

679
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:43,400
that knows how to prep for the option by far

680
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:47,599
the best rush defense they've ever faced, and a team

681
00:36:47,639 --> 00:36:50,360
that is shell shocked playing this good of a team

682
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:54,039
in Navy. I'm gonna go Navy team total under, and

683
00:36:54,679 --> 00:36:57,039
you know I'm gonna go full game on this one

684
00:36:57,159 --> 00:37:00,320
in case something fluky happens in the first But just

685
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:01,119
there's no way I.

686
00:37:01,039 --> 00:37:02,519
Speaker 4: Can get to the Navy side.

687
00:37:02,559 --> 00:37:05,239
Speaker 3: I'm not interested in laying a Notre Dame because Notre

688
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:08,760
Dame has not played fast. They've scored quickly a couple times,

689
00:37:09,039 --> 00:37:11,679
but they're actually number one hundred three and in plays

690
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:14,719
per game, and Navy's number one hundred and twenty one

691
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:17,719
in plays per game. Added up to me, it is

692
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,280
Navy team total under that gets me out of the

693
00:37:20,599 --> 00:37:23,679
laying the big chalk with the Irish, And therefore Ross

694
00:37:23,679 --> 00:37:27,880
and I don't have to have the same play, are right, Hey,

695
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:29,559
sometimes you know the people probably like it.

696
00:37:29,599 --> 00:37:31,519
Speaker 1: Would we agree obviously, it could make them maybe a

697
00:37:31,519 --> 00:37:34,440
little more confident in their own bets. The Navy schedule

698
00:37:34,519 --> 00:37:36,800
is fascinating, Ralph, I've got hope here. They were a

699
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:39,159
double digit favorite each of those first seven wins to

700
00:37:39,199 --> 00:37:41,840
open the year. They're a dog last week to North Texas, obvious,

701
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:44,079
they're a huge dog here to Notre Dame. Well, guess what,

702
00:37:44,119 --> 00:37:45,679
They're gonna be a dog the next two games too,

703
00:37:45,679 --> 00:37:50,440
against USF and at Memphis as well, so that there

704
00:37:50,519 --> 00:37:51,559
they're under their record.

705
00:37:51,599 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 3: Certainly will yeah, with youw offenses that can that can

706
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:58,039
score with anybody, Maybe he's gonna have to score forty

707
00:37:58,039 --> 00:37:59,400
to be in either one of those games.

708
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:00,280
Speaker 4: We'll see if they Yeah.

709
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:03,519
Speaker 2: And here's the thing, were there have been a favorite

710
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:07,800
all along until the North Texas game. But against FBS

711
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:13,119
opponents this year, Navy's just won in six against the spread,

712
00:38:13,519 --> 00:38:15,880
and they won six or seven games straight up. So

713
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:19,880
it's not like I can make a strong case compared

714
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:24,800
the last year's Navy's team Navy team. I think this

715
00:38:25,119 --> 00:38:28,440
year's Navy team is a bit weaker, and I think

716
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:31,719
the big difference is they were much better defensively last

717
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:33,719
year than they were this year they are this year.

718
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:34,760
Speaker 4: Yep, ross good point.

719
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,639
Speaker 3: The last four games for Navy against those crappy opponents

720
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:42,840
they allowed four sixty five eighteen, four fifty and four

721
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:45,800
to twenty four. You're talking about a defense that isn't

722
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,679
very deep getting worn down. In the four games of

723
00:38:48,679 --> 00:38:50,719
the season, they allowed about three hundred yards per game.

724
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:52,760
Speaker 4: Last four they're at four to sixty three.

725
00:38:53,199 --> 00:38:56,159
Speaker 3: I'm gonna say the last four games they might be

726
00:38:56,199 --> 00:38:57,800
allowing five hundred and fifty yards.

727
00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:00,119
Speaker 4: Looking at Notre Dame, USF Memphis.

728
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:02,800
Speaker 1: And then you know, Army O the day, Army, Yeah,

729
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:04,400
Army to close the air and that's not Yeah, I

730
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:05,760
mean they can go from seven to oh to seven

731
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:06,639
and five real quick.

732
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 2: And I think the difference too, though, is is Notre

733
00:39:09,519 --> 00:39:14,119
Dames defense as opposed to UCF and Memphis. Notre Dames

734
00:39:14,159 --> 00:39:17,119
defense is on another plane. UCF is very good, but look,

735
00:39:17,159 --> 00:39:19,599
they give up a lot of the arts. Okay, same

736
00:39:19,639 --> 00:39:23,039
thing with Memphis. You look at their defensive numbers not

737
00:39:23,119 --> 00:39:26,400
even close to the caliber of this Notre Dame defense.

738
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:29,320
So you know a lot of aspects to look here.

739
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:31,119
At the end of the day, it's still a big

740
00:39:31,199 --> 00:39:34,880
points spread in it. I don't disagree with Rolf's under

741
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:35,760
on Navy.

742
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,320
Speaker 1: Though they always call it the great equalizer for a raison. Look,

743
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:41,760
I've apologi I've since apologized. I remember Notre Dame's defense

744
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:44,599
was called out earlier in the year it was not

745
00:39:44,639 --> 00:39:46,800
playing up the stuff after the losses to Miami and

746
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:49,440
Texas A and M and then they just flipped the

747
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:51,639
switch start with that Arkansas game. Man, I've got on

748
00:39:51,639 --> 00:39:53,760
the record on the Power five guys. I've apologied because

749
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:56,039
I didn't think Notre Dame was going to be able

750
00:39:56,079 --> 00:39:57,880
to do it and run the table, make the playoff,

751
00:39:57,920 --> 00:39:59,599
and now obviously on the oddien.

752
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:01,199
Speaker 3: You look, they only a lot of three hundred and

753
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:03,800
twenty four yards to Miami. That's not bad performance at all.

754
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:05,840
That's a season both for Miami. So while you say,

755
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:11,519
I actually say it's a positive. Yeah, it's aged well. Yeah, yeah,

756
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:12,440
it's aged well.

757
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:14,280
Speaker 1: And obviously you know the fact that Notre Dame was

758
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:16,079
favored in both of those laws. You know, I mean

759
00:40:16,079 --> 00:40:17,639
this is a team Notre Dame is very high on

760
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:20,079
their top five team in my power ratings right now,

761
00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:23,519
Notre Dame. So they've got them in the right direction.

762
00:40:23,599 --> 00:40:26,440
Sounds like we all think Navy's lost at sea. We

763
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:28,800
are never lost at c if I may use the

764
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:30,960
terrible pun their dad, Alexander. Because we have the chat,

765
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:34,639
we will be getting to our best bets momentarily. All

766
00:40:34,679 --> 00:40:37,239
three of us have a best bet to share with you.

767
00:40:38,079 --> 00:40:41,079
But before that, obviously, this is a live program. We

768
00:40:41,119 --> 00:40:43,599
want to stay as interactive as possible. So let's now

769
00:40:44,159 --> 00:40:46,039
turn to some of your questions, and we've got one

770
00:40:46,039 --> 00:40:51,119
on Yukon and Duke. Tough spot for Duke stepping, stepping

771
00:40:51,119 --> 00:40:53,320
out of the acc play laying a number on the run.

772
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:56,440
I like Yukon here, plus the points Titan CT I'll

773
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:58,880
tell you that right now, this is close to even

774
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:02,519
actually making my card. Yeah, I think the dog is

775
00:41:02,599 --> 00:41:04,639
absolutely live in this one. I don't know if either

776
00:41:04,679 --> 00:41:07,079
of you guys have anything to share on that one.

777
00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:09,760
Speaker 2: Well, if you go by common opponents and you believe

778
00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:13,119
in that theory, U com played at Syracuse earlier this year,

779
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:16,320
it took the Orange to overtime, and that's with Steve

780
00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:17,800
Aangeli at quarterback.

781
00:41:18,199 --> 00:41:20,320
Speaker 1: Big difference for Syracuse, yes, yeah.

782
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:26,440
Speaker 2: And then Duke at Syracuse earlier this season and they

783
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:29,360
win thirty eight to I think thirty eight to three.

784
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:33,000
Real lopsided game at Syracuse. So if you believe in

785
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:37,480
that common opponent and matching how each team did against

786
00:41:37,519 --> 00:41:41,599
a common opponent, Duke's definitely the better team here, Brian,

787
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:44,840
and they definitely have more class. But you make a

788
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:46,880
good point. I mean, it's a hell of a time

789
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:51,440
to stick in an independent with not a big brand

790
00:41:51,519 --> 00:41:53,880
name in the middle of your ACC schedule.

791
00:41:55,079 --> 00:41:57,320
Speaker 3: I'll tell you what I really liked the I like

792
00:41:57,440 --> 00:42:00,400
the ukon offense. I like what more is done over

793
00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:03,280
in this game. I mean, both offenses are far superior

794
00:42:03,320 --> 00:42:06,639
to their defenses. You know, and you know, you know Duke.

795
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:09,760
Duke put a forty six against Clemson, right and you

796
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:11,760
know then they got them in Virginia. So I'm looking

797
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:14,679
to look at some Duke overs and and Yukon last

798
00:42:14,679 --> 00:42:16,920
week against UAB. You know, they put up thirty eight

799
00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:20,239
UAD only put up nineteen week before, four hundred yards

800
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:22,960
at Rice, four hundred and fifty five yards at Boston College,

801
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:26,840
five hundred and twenty seven yards at against FIU. Again

802
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:30,079
some week defenses as well, but I like that Jim

803
00:42:30,119 --> 00:42:31,159
more offense.

804
00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:32,000
Speaker 4: For the Huskies.

805
00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:34,559
Speaker 1: The check and correct me if I'm wrong on this

806
00:42:34,639 --> 00:42:36,800
one here, guys, I believe Duke. When they played Serio

807
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:39,199
that I believe was Syracuse's first game without.

808
00:42:41,079 --> 00:42:45,199
Speaker 2: Rick the quarterback, you know which. Still it was still

809
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:47,360
one sided, it absolutely was.

810
00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:50,079
Speaker 1: Here's here's something to consider though, when you're getting this

811
00:42:50,119 --> 00:42:53,039
many points with Yukon. Guys, this is unbelievable. I swear

812
00:42:53,079 --> 00:42:55,280
it's true. I would never lie to the people. I

813
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:58,079
would certainly never lie to either of you, Ross or Ralph.

814
00:42:58,119 --> 00:43:00,679
There are five teams in the FS that have not

815
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:05,280
lost the game in regulation this year, Okay, one of

816
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:09,679
them is Yukon. Yukon. All of their losses are in overtime.

817
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:14,400
Give me the points with the Huskies here. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

818
00:43:14,519 --> 00:43:16,480
I hear you. I hear you. Yeah, I hear you.

819
00:43:16,679 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 3: And you know, you can say it's a positive. You

820
00:43:19,519 --> 00:43:21,559
can also say it's a negative that they don't know

821
00:43:21,599 --> 00:43:24,280
how to finish. But again, that to me, would only

822
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:26,320
be relevant if you have a line between the threes

823
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:29,000
or between the touchdowns for that type of team that

824
00:43:29,039 --> 00:43:30,039
can't finish the game.

825
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:34,840
Speaker 1: All right, let's get another question from the chat here

826
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:39,159
and oh Jay Buff is in as always. Jay Buffer

827
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:42,119
joined us for the College Basketball Show. If I may

828
00:43:42,159 --> 00:43:45,960
have a shameless plug here Full Court Press, Wager talks

829
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:48,960
new college hoops show involving myself. Yes, if you can't

830
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:51,119
get enough of me here on the Blitz, I also

831
00:43:51,199 --> 00:43:54,519
do an hour every morning with Rob Veno and Adam

832
00:43:54,559 --> 00:43:57,599
Trigger talking college hoops card Jay Buff joins that show

833
00:43:57,679 --> 00:44:00,039
is live as well. We take your questions. Hope to

834
00:44:00,079 --> 00:44:02,320
see you there again every Monday through Friday, ten am Eastern.

835
00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:07,039
Jay Buff likes Kentucky and Wake Forest and it says,

836
00:44:07,039 --> 00:44:09,519
no ohio chatter they got Yes, okay, I'll be honest

837
00:44:09,559 --> 00:44:11,079
with you, we cheated on that game. When he touchdown

838
00:44:11,079 --> 00:44:13,119
on Tuesday gets Miami. I'm not going to run from it. Okay,

839
00:44:13,119 --> 00:44:15,360
it's Halloween week, Jay Buff. You come from a different

840
00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:18,480
campus down to Athens that week, Strange things are gonna

841
00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:20,320
happen to you. We got away with the hold, we

842
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:22,679
won the game. I'll take it. I had Ohio. That

843
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:24,639
was my five dollars Tuesday play, by the way, But

844
00:44:25,039 --> 00:44:28,239
what do you guys think? Ross? You pick one of them.

845
00:44:28,360 --> 00:44:30,960
I'll let you pick first. Do you want to go

846
00:44:31,039 --> 00:44:34,920
with the Kentucky Kentucky hosting Florida or Wake Forest traveling

847
00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:38,559
to this absolute luck box Virginia team. You pick one

848
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:41,559
and then I'll let Ralph tackle the other.

849
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:44,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I like Kentucky here as a three

850
00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:48,639
point dog. They finally got off to schneid them in

851
00:44:48,679 --> 00:44:52,519
Mississippi State last week to get their first SEC wins

852
00:44:52,559 --> 00:44:56,000
in quite a while. They had the longest losing streaks

853
00:44:56,000 --> 00:45:00,280
in SEC play going into last week. Kentucky's off it's

854
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:04,199
as much improved that was there enigma to start the season.

855
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:07,719
What they've come on as the season has progressed. Florida

856
00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:11,559
losing that heartbreaker to Georgia, even though I think all

857
00:45:11,559 --> 00:45:14,880
of us said that was a danger spot for the

858
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:17,960
Georgia Bulldogs. Why were they just a seven point favorite

859
00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:20,760
in that game? So I'm gonna take I'm gonna have

860
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:24,440
a lean toward Kentucky here catching the three at home

861
00:45:24,559 --> 00:45:28,880
against the Florida team. Again, that's playing with a lame

862
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:33,280
duck coaching staff and stoops over at Kentucky has been

863
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:37,440
a main stay there, and I think the Kentucky Wildcats

864
00:45:37,519 --> 00:45:40,239
carry over the momentum from a win a week ago

865
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:43,519
and continue it here against the Florida Gators.

866
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:47,039
Speaker 1: Okay, Ralph, you want to talk about Virginia Wake Forest. Look,

867
00:45:47,079 --> 00:45:50,039
I've said my piece on this Virginia team on Malton. Yes,

868
00:45:50,119 --> 00:45:51,840
my good friend Aaron Kid was very upset with me

869
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:54,119
on Twitter what I called his team the luckiest team

870
00:45:54,119 --> 00:45:56,519
in America. Look, they're the luckiest team in America. And

871
00:45:56,559 --> 00:46:00,159
by the way, if you had Virginia last week to

872
00:46:00,159 --> 00:46:04,079
help you, help you is Virginia.

873
00:46:05,760 --> 00:46:09,880
Speaker 4: Is Virginia more lucky or is Auburn more unlucky? That

874
00:46:10,039 --> 00:46:11,760
is a great question.

875
00:46:12,960 --> 00:46:15,360
Speaker 1: That is a great question. Yes, I know those teams

876
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:17,599
are at polar opposites of the luck ratings this year

877
00:46:17,639 --> 00:46:20,199
for sure, But did you have anything on that? In obviously,

878
00:46:20,199 --> 00:46:22,679
Wake Forest traveling to Virginia the only promise. I think

879
00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:25,440
the numbers a little short. Odds makers know everyone wants

880
00:46:25,480 --> 00:46:27,159
to bet against Virginia, and they're not giving us the

881
00:46:27,199 --> 00:46:27,880
numbers we want.

882
00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:30,639
Speaker 3: Ralph, you know I did not see the Cal game

883
00:46:30,679 --> 00:46:33,559
against Virginia, but I mean I obviously heard what happened.

884
00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:35,519
Speaker 4: But I'll tell you what I cannot get out of

885
00:46:35,519 --> 00:46:36,000
my mind.

886
00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:39,599
Speaker 3: And sometimes it doesn't matter how long you've been handicapping

887
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:43,800
as bad as Chandler Morris looked at North Carolina two

888
00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:47,960
weeks ago, he looked like he had deer in the headlights. Now, granted,

889
00:46:48,000 --> 00:46:50,800
North Carolina's defense has greatly improved the last five or

890
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:53,039
six games. I actually think they're probably like a top

891
00:46:53,119 --> 00:46:55,320
thirty defense if you look at what the Tower Hills done.

892
00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:58,639
But this is at home, so that puts it in

893
00:46:58,719 --> 00:47:02,800
a different perspective. But I like the Wake Forest defense

894
00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:06,039
as well. They're actually a top twenty defense. They're holding

895
00:47:06,079 --> 00:47:10,320
opponents to almost one hundred yards per game under what

896
00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:13,199
their average allows. You don't think about it, but they

897
00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:15,840
allowed Florida State for twenty one last week. That's actually

898
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:19,360
Florida State's only fourth highest. They held SMU to a

899
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:24,320
season low two forty six the week before. I'm not

900
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:27,440
gonna get there because Chandler Morris at home can be

901
00:47:27,480 --> 00:47:28,880
a different quarterback.

902
00:47:28,440 --> 00:47:29,000
Speaker 2: Than he can.

903
00:47:29,400 --> 00:47:31,880
Speaker 4: But I my first instinct would be lean under.

904
00:47:32,119 --> 00:47:34,599
Speaker 3: But this is way down at the bottom of my pile,

905
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:37,079
so don't put too much stock in my opinion.

906
00:47:38,119 --> 00:47:40,199
Speaker 1: Obviously for anyone who missed it, Virginia had a late

907
00:47:40,239 --> 00:47:43,079
pick six to cover the spread last week at cal

908
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:47,719
So there you go with that one right there by

909
00:47:47,960 --> 00:47:49,840
the Wake Forest. I guarantee they're gonna play better than

910
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:51,679
they did last week against Florida State. Florida State was

911
00:47:51,679 --> 00:47:54,000
a winner for me last Saturday night. Boy, did they

912
00:47:54,039 --> 00:47:56,000
come out of the shoots play that was the seminals.

913
00:47:56,039 --> 00:47:57,440
That was the best of the seminoles looks since the

914
00:47:57,440 --> 00:47:59,880
Alabama game. So you could bet Wakes could come out

915
00:47:59,880 --> 00:48:03,960
there Aaron fire after being embarrassed down in Tallahassee. Do

916
00:48:04,039 --> 00:48:08,280
we have another question from the chat, sir, and what

917
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:11,480
do you think about Vandy giving Auburn? Well, there it

918
00:48:11,559 --> 00:48:14,079
is okay. From the lucky to the unlucky Auburn.

919
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:19,239
Speaker 5: Ralph mentioned him Auburn another team, Hugh Freeze, He's got

920
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:21,960
more time to make phone calls, I suppose now, but

921
00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:25,719
let's see, I don't know think they can't lose them all,

922
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:26,199
can they?

923
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:26,599
Speaker 4: Guys?

924
00:48:27,079 --> 00:48:29,079
Speaker 1: I mean this is the interim coach. I mean they

925
00:48:29,079 --> 00:48:32,079
when they lose, they lose close. I kind of want

926
00:48:32,079 --> 00:48:35,960
to take Auburn. To be honest here, do you guys have.

927
00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:40,480
Speaker 2: Any Rolf's got a good stat on interim coaches this year,

928
00:48:40,519 --> 00:48:42,480
they get a pretty good record, so I won't steal

929
00:48:42,519 --> 00:48:47,679
as thunder, But yeah, I mean Vandy, Auburn's a tough

930
00:48:47,719 --> 00:48:49,599
team to blow out. At the end of the day.

931
00:48:49,639 --> 00:48:53,239
They play very good defense in her catching points at home.

932
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:56,320
I certainly wouldn't be brave enough to predict an out

933
00:48:56,400 --> 00:49:01,239
right upset here, but I do think very small lean

934
00:49:01,360 --> 00:49:03,760
this isn't going to be on my premium card. I

935
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:07,119
do think that Auburn will stay in this game throughout,

936
00:49:07,639 --> 00:49:10,159
and that will give them an excellent opportunity to stay

937
00:49:10,159 --> 00:49:11,159
inside this number.

938
00:49:11,599 --> 00:49:16,320
Speaker 3: So Ralph, I'm just gonna lean under. To be honest

939
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:19,599
with you, I I think I had the Auburn game

940
00:49:19,639 --> 00:49:21,480
wrong in the first five weeks, and I've just stopped

941
00:49:21,480 --> 00:49:23,920
looking at them thankfully, you know, because they could be

942
00:49:23,960 --> 00:49:26,840
sol frustrating, you know, but it's tough to be an

943
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:29,320
SEC team and think that you had a shot to be,

944
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:31,880
you know, middle of the road bowl and now all

945
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:33,960
of a sudden you lost five or six games. The

946
00:49:33,960 --> 00:49:36,400
only game you won was Arkansas and the only reason

947
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:39,440
you beat Arkansas because you're plus three turnovers. You put

948
00:49:39,480 --> 00:49:42,039
Auburn on a playing field and if the team doesn't

949
00:49:42,039 --> 00:49:45,000
turn the ball over, they're not gonna win. You look

950
00:49:45,039 --> 00:49:47,760
at Anderbilt, They've only been minus turnovers in three games.

951
00:49:47,800 --> 00:49:50,039
They were minus one against Texas, which may have cost

952
00:49:50,079 --> 00:49:53,639
him the game, minus two against Alabama, which they lost,

953
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:56,960
and minus one against Virginia Tech. Again a shitty team

954
00:49:57,000 --> 00:50:00,320
early in the year, but to me, Van is the

955
00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:03,480
team that everyone believed in Pavia was so excited.

956
00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:05,559
Speaker 4: Losing to Alabama doesn't.

957
00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:09,239
Speaker 3: Dash their hopes, but the comeback against Texas is tough.

958
00:50:09,760 --> 00:50:12,239
All that emotion in the fourth quarter to get close

959
00:50:12,679 --> 00:50:15,840
and then end up losing and then coming back home.

960
00:50:17,079 --> 00:50:20,840
Speaker 4: Two desperate teams. So al Lean under and al Lean Auburn.

961
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:25,880
Speaker 2: I guess interim head coaches this year, Rolf I.

962
00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:27,599
Speaker 4: Think there was I think they're six and oh I

963
00:50:27,679 --> 00:50:28,519
might have missed one.

964
00:50:28,599 --> 00:50:32,840
Speaker 1: But Colorado State did lose Colorado State lost to Wyoming,

965
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:34,800
didn't they? I think? But I think that's yeah. And

966
00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:40,320
then yeah, Florida covered last week but didn't Yeah, didn't win.

967
00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:41,880
Speaker 4: And I liked Wyoming last week too.

968
00:50:42,000 --> 00:50:44,199
Speaker 3: That that again, I said this couple of weeks ago,

969
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:47,000
that is a situation that would not phaze me. That

970
00:50:47,119 --> 00:50:49,440
is not a long term trend. That is just something

971
00:50:49,480 --> 00:50:51,760
that's happened this year because of and even you know,

972
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:55,760
we talked about, you know, the new intrimid LSU. You know,

973
00:50:55,800 --> 00:50:58,599
these coaches are becoming very creative, you know, bring going

974
00:50:58,639 --> 00:51:00,679
back to the LSU game. I think is their head

975
00:51:00,719 --> 00:51:03,039
coach now, he's an our geron and Pete Carroll, and

976
00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:05,199
he has a drum that he beats in there, and

977
00:51:05,239 --> 00:51:06,559
the players are going to be able to beat the

978
00:51:06,639 --> 00:51:09,679
drum if they make a big play. So with college kids,

979
00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:13,760
quirky little things like that can get him excited one game,

980
00:51:14,000 --> 00:51:15,280
but it wears off pretty quick.

981
00:51:15,440 --> 00:51:18,199
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I could add this too, if I can

982
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:23,480
Brian real quickly his interim head coaches, if the kids

983
00:51:23,760 --> 00:51:29,119
believe that the interim head coach has a legitimate chance

984
00:51:29,280 --> 00:51:31,760
to take over as a head coach depending on how

985
00:51:31,800 --> 00:51:34,920
they finished the season. Now, they don't have to worry

986
00:51:34,960 --> 00:51:39,519
about transferring because it's a whole new coaching staff. There's

987
00:51:39,599 --> 00:51:42,880
familiarity there, So I think that comes into play a lot.

988
00:51:43,440 --> 00:51:47,400
And I'd be curious, and I don't know this. Ralph's right,

989
00:51:47,599 --> 00:51:50,639
this is an oddity for interim head coaching staffs to

990
00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:53,159
have the record they do this year. But I'd be

991
00:51:53,239 --> 00:51:56,480
interested in how many of those head coaches that compiled

992
00:51:56,519 --> 00:52:00,840
into that six and one record really have a legitimate,

993
00:52:01,079 --> 00:52:04,679
legitimate chance to take over that program the following year.

994
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:08,559
At the Power conference level, it's normally not the case, agree,

995
00:52:08,639 --> 00:52:09,719
guys or no?

996
00:52:10,679 --> 00:52:12,519
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, And again a lot of times you got

997
00:52:12,639 --> 00:52:16,239
to remember most of most of the guys that become

998
00:52:16,320 --> 00:52:20,400
head coaches are the quality OC's and DC's. Yeah, your

999
00:52:20,519 --> 00:52:23,280
interims are normally not your OC or DC because they

1000
00:52:23,320 --> 00:52:25,599
want to keep the continuity in the offense and the defense.

1001
00:52:25,800 --> 00:52:28,119
So it's the special teams coach or the assistant coach.

1002
00:52:28,199 --> 00:52:31,679
So the best coach is not always the interim. They're

1003
00:52:31,679 --> 00:52:36,159
trying to keep the other units calm, peaceful, and have

1004
00:52:36,320 --> 00:52:37,400
some continuity to them.

1005
00:52:38,079 --> 00:52:41,199
Speaker 2: Yeah. Debo Sweeney actually was an interim head coach when

1006
00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:43,559
Clemson got off to he was.

1007
00:52:43,599 --> 00:52:44,519
Speaker 4: The wide receiver coach.

1008
00:52:44,599 --> 00:52:46,800
Speaker 2: He wasn't ThEC A good point.

1009
00:52:47,880 --> 00:52:50,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, And obviously this year has been so unique with

1010
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:53,159
so many in season you you don't normally see this.

1011
00:52:53,400 --> 00:52:55,320
I mean it's gonna happen more and more obviously, Yes,

1012
00:52:55,360 --> 00:52:56,559
And I own money allows them.

1013
00:52:56,599 --> 00:52:58,760
Speaker 3: You know, if there was no retail money and there

1014
00:52:58,800 --> 00:53:01,199
were no boosters like they were, LSU doesn't fire them,

1015
00:53:01,360 --> 00:53:02,480
Florida doesn't fire them.

1016
00:53:03,400 --> 00:53:06,679
Speaker 4: Now it doesn't matter, you know what. The money's free flowing.

1017
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:08,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, you just don't want to fall be It's an

1018
00:53:08,719 --> 00:53:10,519
arms race in these big conference You just don't want

1019
00:53:10,519 --> 00:53:12,760
to fall behind. Guys don't want to risk, you know.

1020
00:53:13,920 --> 00:53:17,000
Speaker 3: All right, and look what's happened, right, James Franklin gets

1021
00:53:17,039 --> 00:53:20,440
fired and then all of anudden, Signetti gets a thirteen

1022
00:53:20,519 --> 00:53:23,480
million dollar a year a raise, and then some guy

1023
00:53:23,559 --> 00:53:25,679
in Nebraska who I think is what twenty seven and

1024
00:53:25,719 --> 00:53:28,159
twenty five gets a six million dollar raise because they

1025
00:53:28,199 --> 00:53:29,639
think they might could have had to try to get

1026
00:53:29,679 --> 00:53:32,079
their coach. So hey, being over five hundred now in

1027
00:53:32,119 --> 00:53:34,320
college football is being like an old left handed starter

1028
00:53:34,440 --> 00:53:35,119
in the MLB.

1029
00:53:35,440 --> 00:53:36,039
Speaker 4: You just get pay.

1030
00:53:36,079 --> 00:53:39,079
Speaker 2: Yeah, took over at a program that it was a mess,

1031
00:53:39,119 --> 00:53:40,599
at Nebraska and his defense.

1032
00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:43,679
Speaker 3: And I'm a big fan. I love what he did

1033
00:53:43,800 --> 00:53:45,760
Temple third year. I love what he did at Baylor's

1034
00:53:45,760 --> 00:53:48,199
third year. So I am a fan, but I'm just

1035
00:53:48,840 --> 00:53:49,559
I agree.

1036
00:53:49,320 --> 00:53:52,639
Speaker 1: With you, all right. I think we have one more

1037
00:53:52,719 --> 00:53:55,239
question before we get to the best BET's best place

1038
00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:58,000
to find? Oh, here's an interesting one, not a specific game,

1039
00:53:58,159 --> 00:54:01,639
just the best place to find both college and NFL

1040
00:54:01,840 --> 00:54:07,039
advanced stats as EPA, per c PSR, ETCTERA. Where do

1041
00:54:07,079 --> 00:54:08,599
you got do you guys go? Is there any place

1042
00:54:08,599 --> 00:54:10,639
you got you want to direct J two that you

1043
00:54:10,760 --> 00:54:11,719
go to for stats?

1044
00:54:12,760 --> 00:54:12,920
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1045
00:54:13,079 --> 00:54:13,840
Speaker 1: Specific place?

1046
00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:18,719
Speaker 2: Well, I mean there's a couple of places, but they're

1047
00:54:18,880 --> 00:54:22,000
pretty much competitors, you know, so I don't want to

1048
00:54:22,760 --> 00:54:25,480
give any Well, I could say because Covers doesn't sell

1049
00:54:25,599 --> 00:54:29,920
picks anymore. Covers in in stat Fox is another one.

1050
00:54:30,079 --> 00:54:33,320
It's not now called stat Shark.

1051
00:54:33,440 --> 00:54:36,559
Speaker 4: Yeah, stat Shark they're like twenty they're twenty nine dollars

1052
00:54:36,599 --> 00:54:37,119
a month now.

1053
00:54:37,199 --> 00:54:41,000
Speaker 2: But I yeah, very reasonable, you know, But I do

1054
00:54:41,079 --> 00:54:41,760
a lot of my own.

1055
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:45,400
Speaker 3: I mean, for there's not advanced analytics because it's so

1056
00:54:45,480 --> 00:54:46,679
much different in the NFL.

1057
00:54:46,800 --> 00:54:48,960
Speaker 4: You can have advanced analytics.

1058
00:54:48,960 --> 00:54:51,079
Speaker 3: Because at the beginning of the season, you probably only

1059
00:54:51,159 --> 00:54:53,679
have a twelve point variant from top to bottom, you know,

1060
00:54:53,880 --> 00:54:56,440
maybe fifteen or eighteen now when you got some crappy

1061
00:54:56,480 --> 00:54:59,079
teams like Tennessee. But in college football you have a

1062
00:54:59,119 --> 00:55:01,920
sixty point vari and so the analytics can't work. It's

1063
00:55:01,960 --> 00:55:02,760
not the same thing.

1064
00:55:03,000 --> 00:55:08,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, was he asking for advanced analytics or advanced stats?

1065
00:55:08,360 --> 00:55:09,719
Speaker 1: I think I think he was just I think I

1066
00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:12,360
think he's looking for stats in general. Jay, if you

1067
00:55:12,440 --> 00:55:14,920
wanted to, you know what, James a great.

1068
00:55:14,800 --> 00:55:18,639
Speaker 3: Easy site that's free, CFB stats because you can break

1069
00:55:18,719 --> 00:55:21,280
them down. They have all the national rankings, but on

1070
00:55:21,400 --> 00:55:24,519
the left tool bar you can then look against conference teams,

1071
00:55:24,559 --> 00:55:28,840
against power forward teams, against winning teams, against losing teams.

1072
00:55:29,039 --> 00:55:31,159
Speaker 4: So it allows you a lot of ability to be

1073
00:55:31,199 --> 00:55:32,639
able to devvy out those stats.

1074
00:55:33,679 --> 00:55:36,199
Speaker 1: All right, hopefully that answered your question, Jay, If not,

1075
00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:38,800
feel free hit us up. You could find, of course,

1076
00:55:39,159 --> 00:55:41,079
the replay of this on the Wagehot YouTube channel and

1077
00:55:41,119 --> 00:55:46,000
we can answer any specifics and maybe even link you there. Okay,

1078
00:55:46,159 --> 00:55:48,199
I think we're coming to the end of the program,

1079
00:55:48,400 --> 00:55:50,320
and that means it's time for our best bets. We're

1080
00:55:50,320 --> 00:55:52,440
each going to share one here for you before I

1081
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:54,280
get into mine, I would like you all to know

1082
00:55:54,679 --> 00:55:56,639
we're on the night. We're heating up this week. Six

1083
00:55:56,760 --> 00:56:00,280
and one run in football since last Saturday, it's a

1084
00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:03,639
perfect three four to three in college hit our game

1085
00:56:03,679 --> 00:56:05,719
of the week. Think thankfully we got in at two

1086
00:56:05,760 --> 00:56:09,239
and a half with Texas last week. I thought some

1087
00:56:09,320 --> 00:56:11,000
prayers to those of you who got stuck with the

1088
00:56:11,079 --> 00:56:13,440
three or even worse three and a half. That was horrible. Hey,

1089
00:56:13,519 --> 00:56:16,320
I was with you. I was. I was afraid that

1090
00:56:16,559 --> 00:56:18,440
Vandy was going to go for two and get inside

1091
00:56:18,440 --> 00:56:21,679
all numbers there, But thankfully they didn't. Had the winner

1092
00:56:21,719 --> 00:56:25,199
with Ohio as part of two dollars, two dollars, five

1093
00:56:25,239 --> 00:56:27,559
dollars Tuesday, So I made it a six and one

1094
00:56:27,679 --> 00:56:31,079
run over all in football, sixty seven percent in the

1095
00:56:31,199 --> 00:56:35,000
NFL going back to October. The six that includes the

1096
00:56:35,159 --> 00:56:40,920
Cardinals outright on Monday night. And speaking of underdogs, and

1097
00:56:41,039 --> 00:56:43,000
I think are live. Let's go to Saturday for my

1098
00:56:43,159 --> 00:56:47,039
best bet is the Temple Owl. Somebody qpil gift here

1099
00:56:47,159 --> 00:56:49,199
for me. Here's the deal with the Army got Temple's

1100
00:56:49,199 --> 00:56:51,559
playing Army, Temple's getting seven. Here's what you need to

1101
00:56:51,599 --> 00:56:54,000
know about Temple. Okay, they did not play well last

1102
00:56:54,039 --> 00:56:56,559
week against East Carolina. They're set on the back end.

1103
00:56:56,599 --> 00:56:58,920
They got carved up by the East Carolina passing attack. Well,

1104
00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:01,679
guess what they don't need to worry about that against Army,

1105
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:03,960
who runs a triple option. Now, Army's coming off the

1106
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:07,480
game against air Force. Obviously, that's always an emotional situation

1107
00:57:07,679 --> 00:57:10,599
part of the Commander in Chief Trophy series. Army wins

1108
00:57:10,639 --> 00:57:13,559
that game twenty to seventeen on a last second field goal,

1109
00:57:13,760 --> 00:57:17,119
but they were out gained, okay by a modest forty yards.

1110
00:57:17,159 --> 00:57:20,119
But here's the key. Army was plus three and turnovers.

1111
00:57:20,360 --> 00:57:23,679
Two of those air Force turnovers came in the red zone,

1112
00:57:23,679 --> 00:57:25,320
and that game winning field goal was set up by

1113
00:57:25,360 --> 00:57:29,960
a kind of wild forty yard pass. Temple. We talked

1114
00:57:29,960 --> 00:57:32,400
in the Notre Dame Navy breakdown earlier in this program,

1115
00:57:32,840 --> 00:57:36,599
we talked about preparing for these Service Academy teams. Well,

1116
00:57:36,599 --> 00:57:38,880
Temple's already played Navy. Temple should have won that game.

1117
00:57:38,920 --> 00:57:41,360
I was on Temple plus the points. They should have

1118
00:57:41,400 --> 00:57:44,320
absolutely won it. Temple has pulled some upsets this year

1119
00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:46,840
as well. Guys. Not only did they cover against Navy,

1120
00:57:46,920 --> 00:57:50,320
losing by only one as a ten point dog, but

1121
00:57:50,440 --> 00:57:55,159
they won outright. Granted at home against UTSA, and UTSA

1122
00:57:55,280 --> 00:57:56,519
is not the same on the road as they are

1123
00:57:56,880 --> 00:57:59,719
at home. But still, this is a Temple team that's

1124
00:57:59,760 --> 00:58:02,920
played eight teams tough. I like them in the underdog role.

1125
00:58:03,239 --> 00:58:06,320
The fact that we're able to get them seven here,

1126
00:58:06,800 --> 00:58:08,880
I think is a good deal. So give me the

1127
00:58:08,960 --> 00:58:13,840
seven with the Owls Temple. That is my show. Best

1128
00:58:14,199 --> 00:58:18,239
be Ralph. I'll go to you next again.

1129
00:58:18,599 --> 00:58:21,599
Speaker 4: If you're watching live, a five percent NFL up. Now,

1130
00:58:22,400 --> 00:58:26,119
if you're not, grab that weekend Warrior.

1131
00:58:26,239 --> 00:58:30,239
Speaker 3: Take advantage of Blitz twenty five that is valid only

1132
00:58:30,639 --> 00:58:33,960
for Ross the Boss, Brian Power, and myself twenty five

1133
00:58:34,000 --> 00:58:36,440
percent off any package two ninety nine or more.

1134
00:58:37,519 --> 00:58:39,039
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go Arkansas State.

1135
00:58:39,159 --> 00:58:39,320
Speaker 2: Now.

1136
00:58:40,360 --> 00:58:42,360
Speaker 4: I don't watch many Sun Belt games. I watched some

1137
00:58:42,480 --> 00:58:44,280
highlights and I do.

1138
00:58:45,039 --> 00:58:48,599
Speaker 3: I do a radio or pods show every Friday morning

1139
00:58:48,679 --> 00:58:53,159
from Alabama with long Shore and McKnight, and Garry McKnight

1140
00:58:53,239 --> 00:58:55,639
is actually the play by play caller for Troy, so

1141
00:58:55,760 --> 00:58:58,480
we talk Troy football a lot on the show, and

1142
00:58:58,880 --> 00:59:00,760
I get a good feel for it. So I watched

1143
00:59:00,800 --> 00:59:03,880
this Arkansas State team beat Troy last week and the

1144
00:59:04,000 --> 00:59:06,360
offense only had two hundred and ninety seven yards, but

1145
00:59:06,519 --> 00:59:09,719
that defense was amazing. Now we're not talking about an

1146
00:59:09,760 --> 00:59:12,079
elite offense with Troy, but when you hold some of

1147
00:59:12,119 --> 00:59:14,840
the one hundred and eighty seven yards, eleven first downs

1148
00:59:14,880 --> 00:59:18,400
and you sack them nine times, it catches your attention.

1149
00:59:19,079 --> 00:59:20,360
Speaker 4: This Arkansas State.

1150
00:59:20,239 --> 00:59:24,039
Speaker 3: Defense has had has held two of the last three

1151
00:59:24,079 --> 00:59:26,480
opponents to a season low, the other opponent to a

1152
00:59:26,519 --> 00:59:29,800
season number two low. They have thirteen sacks on defense

1153
00:59:30,159 --> 00:59:33,519
two sacks on offense the last three games. Southern Miss

1154
00:59:33,760 --> 00:59:35,760
has a very good offensive line. They don't rush the

1155
00:59:35,840 --> 00:59:38,400
ball well, but they do hold them stacks. I think

1156
00:59:38,480 --> 00:59:40,760
that that breaks up the game and then they look

1157
00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:43,599
at rush defense over the last three or four weeks.

1158
00:59:43,639 --> 00:59:45,679
Speaker 4: I give the heads to Arkansas State as well.

1159
00:59:46,119 --> 00:59:50,239
Speaker 3: At home four straight wins, they beat an FCS team,

1160
00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:53,280
they lose four straight, they win four straight SMU, four

1161
00:59:53,360 --> 00:59:56,840
straight wins. I'm going to take the home team better

1162
00:59:57,000 --> 00:59:59,679
current form for the defense, and I actually feel a

1163
00:59:59,719 --> 01:00:02,199
team can run the ball better than the Eagles.

1164
01:00:02,239 --> 01:00:04,440
Speaker 4: So Arkansas State for me.

1165
01:00:05,159 --> 01:00:10,239
Speaker 1: Oh red Wolves, all right, the red Wolves, So it's Temple,

1166
01:00:10,679 --> 01:00:12,000
that's Arkansas State.

1167
01:00:13,079 --> 01:00:16,159
Speaker 4: Okay, Ross like top if you go from the.

1168
01:00:18,119 --> 01:00:20,800
Speaker 1: Say, hey, that's what the rundown is for. The rundown

1169
01:00:20,880 --> 01:00:23,280
is to talk about those marquee games that everyone wants

1170
01:00:23,280 --> 01:00:26,480
to hear about. Ross round out this three leg par way.

1171
01:00:26,920 --> 01:00:29,199
Speaker 2: Yeah. You know, sometimes you got to go to the

1172
01:00:30,360 --> 01:00:34,760
FC well FBS group of five, you know, to find

1173
01:00:34,800 --> 01:00:37,159
the hidden value. And I think I have one here.

1174
01:00:37,239 --> 01:00:40,039
I think Ralph may as well. You know what, Ralph,

1175
01:00:40,079 --> 01:00:44,840
you're a marketing genius. The state Alabama. I think that

1176
01:00:45,000 --> 01:00:47,920
might be the most popular state for sports betting, or

1177
01:00:48,039 --> 01:00:51,360
especially college football betty is state Alabama. And I also

1178
01:00:51,400 --> 01:00:54,599
would pay to see the expressions on people's face with

1179
01:00:54,719 --> 01:00:57,519
those Southern drawls down there to listen to Ralph talk,

1180
01:00:57,920 --> 01:01:02,639
you know. So anyway, you're my idle rough. In any event,

1181
01:01:02,960 --> 01:01:08,119
FIU is squaring off against Middle Tennessee State this week.

1182
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The total in this game is fifty one. I look

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at these types of things teams. Both teams are coming

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off and under, and FIU has played three and zero

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01:01:19,199 --> 01:01:21,920
to the over in their last three games, following an

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under in their previous contest. Those three games sixty six

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points per game. Middle Tennessee is certainly not an offensive juggernaut.

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But I think they'll get their fair share points here

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and I'll tell you in the second why. But they're

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also coming off an under. Like I alluded to three

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and one to the over this year when coming off

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an under in their previous game, fifty five point eight

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points combined scored per contest in those four games FIU

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01:01:48,159 --> 01:01:51,119
last three games, their offense really clicking at four hundred

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01:01:51,119 --> 01:01:54,119
and thirty nine yards per game, and they're averaging in

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01:01:54,280 --> 01:01:59,519
nels three contests seventy one point three offensive plays per game.

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Rough can speak better than this, but I think that's

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a pretty good tempo ralph and their defense over their

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01:02:05,559 --> 01:02:08,960
last four games thirty two point five points per game

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01:02:09,039 --> 01:02:11,800
allowed over four hundred and forty three yards of total

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01:02:11,880 --> 01:02:17,719
offense to the opposition. So I think Middle Tennessee Kid,

1202
01:02:18,880 --> 01:02:22,519
they'll go over their season average in points and yards

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01:02:23,320 --> 01:02:26,639
in this contest in FIU, like I alluded to, playing

1204
01:02:26,679 --> 01:02:31,400
at a very fast paced and very improved offensively. I

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01:02:31,519 --> 01:02:33,559
gave you the numbers over the last three games. I'm

1206
01:02:33,559 --> 01:02:36,880
going to go over the total of fifty one in

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01:02:37,000 --> 01:02:40,159
the game between Middle Tennessee State and FIU.

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01:02:41,320 --> 01:02:43,840
Speaker 3: Brian, let me let me quantify one thing for Ross,

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01:02:43,960 --> 01:02:47,079
because Ross I actually have those numbers. FIU is number

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01:02:47,159 --> 01:02:49,559
twenty nine in the country in plays per game, so

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01:02:49,840 --> 01:02:53,760
very fast. Middle Tennessee is only seventy nine for the season,

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01:02:54,440 --> 01:02:57,360
number seventy nine at sixty six plays per game, but

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01:02:57,559 --> 01:03:01,199
in conference only action they are at number twenty eight

1214
01:03:01,320 --> 01:03:04,360
in plays, running seventy one point five plays per game.

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01:03:04,559 --> 01:03:06,559
So you have two teams in the top thirty as

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01:03:06,599 --> 01:03:07,960
far as paces and concern.

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01:03:10,079 --> 01:03:10,679
Speaker 2: Thank you, Rolf.

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01:03:11,360 --> 01:03:14,280
Speaker 1: All right, there we go, and there we go with

1219
01:03:14,559 --> 01:03:17,800
the Blitz squad ride right there, yes, and all group

1220
01:03:17,960 --> 01:03:21,599
of five three leg parlay here is Ross is going

1221
01:03:21,719 --> 01:03:25,199
with the over fifty one FIU and Middle Tennessee. Ralph

1222
01:03:25,679 --> 01:03:31,440
likes Arkansas State plus the points. I like Temple plus

1223
01:03:31,760 --> 01:03:35,159
the points that is the that is Conference USA, the

1224
01:03:35,320 --> 01:03:38,800
Sun Belt and the American for you. Right there again,

1225
01:03:39,000 --> 01:03:42,679
all G five, Ralph, Let's hit him with it one

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01:03:42,719 --> 01:03:45,840
more time. That promo, the Blitz exclusive promo before we uh.

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01:03:46,880 --> 01:03:51,920
Speaker 3: Blitz two five b LTZ two five no spaces only

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01:03:52,039 --> 01:03:52,840
for the three of us.

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01:03:53,360 --> 01:03:55,440
Speaker 4: It can be for the college football season, the college

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01:03:55,480 --> 01:03:58,719
football NFL combo or any package two ninety nine or more.

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01:03:59,159 --> 01:04:01,239
But we get is still active.

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01:04:01,280 --> 01:04:02,800
Speaker 3: If you don't want to commit for someone for the

1233
01:04:02,840 --> 01:04:05,639
whole year, so be it short term, be it long term.

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01:04:06,199 --> 01:04:07,719
Speaker 4: We've got you covered at the Blitz.

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01:04:09,039 --> 01:04:12,320
Speaker 1: Okay, there you have it, another week in the books.

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01:04:13,280 --> 01:04:15,599
Thank you everyone for checking us out here that did

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01:04:15,679 --> 01:04:18,559
so live. If you're catching us on the replay smash

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01:04:18,599 --> 01:04:20,599
that like button, feel free to comment. We'll be checked.

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01:04:20,599 --> 01:04:23,239
We'll be perusing the comments section as the weekend goes along,

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01:04:23,519 --> 01:04:25,280
and make sure you hit subscribe. Will be back next

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01:04:25,320 --> 01:04:30,320
week live Thursday, one pm Eastern. Until that, let's cash

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01:04:30,360 --> 01:04:30,880
the tickets.