Speaker 1: Welcome to the Blitz everyone college football, all the biggest
games we're about to talk about. Joining me of course,
my good friends Ross Benjamin and Ralph Michaels. We've got
a lot on the docket. LSU, Alabama, Texas A and
M Missouri, Oregon, Iowa, Nordre Dame, Navy. Well, it's a
big spread, but it's a game I think a lot
of people be watching Saturday night. And of course our
top ten showdown is Texas Tech and BYU this week,
a top ten showdown with a double digit spread on
my ad. Also, any game you got besides those that
you guys want to talk about, feel free if you're
watching the chat, drop us a comment and we will
be happy to answer those after we get through our rundown. Ross,
I'm gonna go to you first, and we're gonna start
in the SEC. I hope I did catch you there.
LSB talk LSU and Alabama. This obviously preseason most seasons,
is one of the more marquee games to look forward
to in the conference. But LSU, well, they didn't like
Brian Kelly so much. They decided we'll give you fifty
four and a half million dollars to go away. What
a world we live in and they're off a bye.
Ralph has mentioned it several times on the show before.
I know we all have that there's been a new
coach bump for a lot of teams in that first game.
We saw Florida cover for an interim last week against Georgia.
Speaking of the SEC, what do you think here? I
kind of think I want to fire if I were
to play this game, I would actually fire on the
dog LSU Alabama, who I know you before the start
of the season, and I agreed with you might be
a good bet to win the National championship. They lose
their first game and then what happens? They haven't lost since,
but they've been out gained ross in three straight games,
and that is what has me concerned. What do you
think here?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I don't see them getting out gained here. Yeah.
I went into this, Brian, looking at this line, and
I just think that Alabama's undervalue in this spot. I
really do. Why said al Let's use defense is good,
but they get worn down, you know, especially against a
potent offense like Alabama, and their offense is just so
limited and it has been so disappointing this season that
I just think they're getting too much respect because of
their brand name here, because Alabama to me, is clearly
the better team, and I think they're clearly the better
team by a couple of touchdowns, especially at home. So
I'm gonna go with Bama in this spot way to
ten points. I just think that this isn't as a
marquee matchup as it's been in prior years. It's lacks
a little bit of luster here, and it's mostly because LSU,
not because of Alabama. And yeah, they've been out game
for the last three weeks. I know Ralph likes to
look at that kind of stuff, but I just don't
see LSU being able to match them offensive and I
think that's gonna be the big difference here.
Speaker 1: Okay, Ralph Ross telling me basically abpiece to keep that
money that you want to spend on LSU in your pocket.
I don't think so. RJ in the chat there, by
the way, noting that the show is quickly becoming one
of his favorites. Thank you, RJ. RJ. Also, as we
can tell from his little logo there on YouTube, he
knows LSU and he points out you talking about the
LSU defense wearing down Ross. No wit weeks. They're calling
you demand Ralph in the chat by the way, so
I am going to say, what do you think I mean?
I to me, I don't know. I'm typically a dog player,
so it would be dogger pass. But Ross made some
good points there about Alabama. What do you think is
there any Is there anything to the fact that Alabama's
been out gaining three three weeks.
Speaker 3: No, I mean, let's look at what they've been out
gained by Brian five five yards, thirty seven.
Speaker 4: Yards, and eight yards. I mean that's you know.
Speaker 3: You looks weeks, their plus twenty six yards per game.
Speaker 4: You should be mentioning that LSU got out game.
Speaker 3: Two hundred and twenty six yard at Old Miss, got
out gained at Vanderbilt by seventy four yards, and got
mauled against Texas A and m got out gained by
one hundred and forty eight yards.
Speaker 4: I agree with Ross. You look at the last four.
Speaker 3: Weeks, LSU is getting out gained by eighty six yards
per game. Their defense has allowed four hundred and eighty
and four hundred and twenty six yards twice, and their
rush defense the last two games against Vanderbilt and A
and M two hundred and thirty nine yards and five
point three yards per carry two weeks ago two hundred
and twenty four yards and five point six yards per carry.
We know that Bama wants to pass the ball more
with Ty Simpson then run the ball, but they only
have seventeen more passes than rushes. When Bama gets in trouble,
they don't run the ball well. Against Florida State, they
ran for eighty seven yards three point zero. Last week
against South Carolina in a game where they only won
by seven, they only rushed for seventy two yards per carry.
They're gonna rush for two hundred yards. They're gonna win
this game handily. It's still in the mix to be
one of my client plays, So Bama for me.
Speaker 1: Okay, there you have it. I came into this show saying, hey,
maybe the dog after Fire and Brian Kelly might be
worth a look. Ralph and Ross both told me, no,
don't do that VP. That would be a bad idea.
So very have it. What do you guys think of
this game? Feel free to let us know again in
down in the comments section. While you're down there and
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of course, remember that week is a busy week of
college football with the nice slate on Friday, So see
you then. But we've got more games to talk about
this week, guys. And I mentioned Alabama LSU may not
be a top ten matchup, but I'll tell you what
it is. Ross is Texas Tech against BYU. Yeah, this
is it. This is one to me that would maybe
be a contender for you. Does this line make sense?
Segment on Wager Talk today, Because we have BYU. They
have not lost the game. They are off by They're
getting ten in Lubbock. Now, I am not a BYU believer,
I apologized to all you Mormons out there, but I
think Texas Tech is the better team. I agree with
this line being at ten. Personally, what do you think
here is BYU likely to go down for the first
time this season?
Speaker 2: I love Texas Tech in this spot. I mean the
bottom line. You hit it right on the nail on
the head. You got the lower ranked team with one
loss on a season as a double digit favorite against
the higher ranked team that's eight and zero and coming
off a bye week. I trust the odds makers a
hell of a lot more than I do to posters.
You've heard me say this time and time again throughout
the course of our shows. This to me is a
fishy line being the size. I think a lot of
people get sucked in on the sizeable undefeated, underdog and
higher ranked team. I'm not going to be one of them.
As a matter of fact, you know I went into
the database, Ralph, you'd be interested. This is right up
your alley when you have a college football undefeated team. Now,
this is not a betting trend. It's a betting angle.
A trend is specific teams. A betting angle applies to
all teams in specific situation or situations. A college football
under our undefeated team playing after game seven in a season,
so game eight and beyond, and they're away underdog of
five and a half for greater. They're playing a team
like Texas Tech with a win percentage of eight to
fifty seven or better. But they do have they are
they're not undefeated, which most likely the eight fifty seven
are better this late in the year game eight on
one lost team, So it applies perfectly to this situation.
In those college football undefeated teams is a way underdog
a five and a half for greater in this specific situation,
two and twelve against the spread zero and fourteen straight up.
The average line in those fourteen games the away underdog
was an average a plus eight point one, and they
lost by an average of nineteen point three points per game.
This speaks volumes to me. I don't put all my
eggs in one basket on a at an angle, but
it certainly supports the other things I'm looking at. You know,
Texas Tech five and oh straight up and ats at
home this year and they won by twenty five points
or more on each occasion and allowed just ten point
four points per game in two hundred and thirty eight
yards per contest, and Rolf, you'll like this at home.
In those five wins, they're allowing just three point six
yards per play. On the other hand, BYU five and
zero one conference play, but they're allowing close to three
hundred and eighty six yards per contest and conference play.
And since twenty twenty one, Texas Tech by the way,
seven and oh straight up in ats against FBS teams
as a home favored of five or greater, winning by
thirty five points per contest, Texas Tech for me, Brian.
Speaker 1: All right, so the first game, maybe Ross and I
had a different. Ross basically told me where to take
my idea, but we were on the same side. See
Titan ct is in the chat as well. He leans
the oil money lay in tend with the Red Raiders. Obviously,
they went out and spent a lot of nil many odds,
that's why they're this good. And he makes a lot
of good points Ralph. Obviously, also we should mention the
BYU running back Martin. He is questionable play and BYU.
I look, look, you give teams credit for winning, right, guys,
but let's go let's peel back this BYU schedule. They
were neck and neck with Iowa State. They were all
home dog to rival Utah. That's a game where Kyle Whittingham,
I'm not gonna take the points. Guy with field goals often,
but if Kyle Whittingham would have taken the points, Utah
could have won that game, could have won that additional
Holy War. And let's also not forget BYU early in
the season on the road as they are here, Ralph
fell behind old coach Prime in Colorado, so they've been
living dangerously. Is this where do we make it a
clean sweep? Is this kind of where it ends for
the coops?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: I was showing my pen because Ross stole one of
my systems, and this Penn says, stat Daddy say, you
need to ask my permission before you use that.
Speaker 4: It's a little suit. But I will just share with you.
Speaker 3: You know, one of the trends I did on the
bet and a bet on a TA segment, if you
take an away dog of three or more, again, a
lot of this is rehashed or the same subset of Ross,
but an away dog of three or more that has
at least seven wins and no losses versus an opponent
that has a loss it doesn't matter ross if they're
eighty five percent or higher, all they have to do
is have at least one loss. Those undefeated away dogs
of three or more with at least seven wins have
gone ten and twenty six twenty eight percent against the spread.
So either way you look at it, the plus three,
the plus five and a half, the win percentages, it
just shows you that you're a dog for a reason,
and there's no way I can back BYU. You look
at a team that played one of the weakest schedules
when you look at conference when you look at conference play,
Texas Tech has played eight slots better. I have Texas
Tech with the number four twenty fourth toughest conference schedule
BYU number thirty two. Texas Tech has been a statistical dynamo.
They're number eight in the country plus one point seven
yards per play BYU is all the way back to
forty two at plus two at plus point four to
nine yards per play.
Speaker 4: And then you look at the Texas Tech defense, their.
Speaker 3: Top fifteen as far as holding their foes under what
their opponents allow. They do run the ball. This isn't
the old air raid. I mean they've had some games
they went to Houston. They ran the ball fifty times.
They ran the ball forty times against Kansas They ran
the ball forty four times against Kansas State last week
for one hundred and eighty seven yards. Look at BYU's
defense the last two games. They allowed four hundred and
seventy yards to Utah, including two hundred twenty six to
six point one yards per carry rush. Should they allowed
four hundred and ninety five yards to Iowa State.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that cyclones.
Speaker 3: Offense four hundred ninety five yards and twenty four first downs.
Speaker 1: It's Tech for me, all day, all night, all right,
Texas Tech seems to be a clean sweep here from
the panel, and that some of you in the chat
seem to agree as well. How about here's a question
for you guys in the chat. If you guys, or
if you're well, ay even not even if you're watching
this live, if you're just catching us on the replay,
feel free to conway, what would be a good moneyline
parlay piece to put with Texas Tech. I fear into
that kind of thing. Just give us your best answers,
just a reason. Let's keep this thing interactive. And speaking
of keeping it interactive, here let's go back to the
SEC because this game is on our rundown. Many of
you are asking about it. Texas A and M. Some
people thought they should have may've been a little higher
in the college football rankings there. Ross, they are still
undefeated as well, just like BYU get a little more respective.
Playing a Missouri team guys that obviously has injuries at
the quarterback position. For Bula goes down would have been
a different Who knows. If he wouldn't gotten hurt, maybe
it'd have a different story against Vandy for the Tigers.
But last he's hurt, they lost that game. What do
we think here? There's seems to be some skepticism in
our chat about this Texas A and M team. Ross,
what do you think did they slip up here or
do they keep it rolling?
Speaker 2: Well? I mean I think they would have had a
better chance of slipping up if Missouri's top quarterback didn't
go down. What I do like in this game is
the under if you look at both of these teams
and conference play. Defensively, they've both been stout. I mean,
Missouri's a good team look and their defense has carried
them a lot because they're only two losses. You look
at They lose by three at home the Alabama, and
they lose by seven at Vanderbilt. Two pretty damn good teams.
The last I checked in this Texas A and M team.
They have an explosive offense.
Speaker 5: Uh.
Speaker 2: But I think what gets vastly overlooked with Texas A
and M is how good their defense has been. And
I see this playing out as a low, lower scoring affair.
Missouri certainly can't afford to get in the track meet
with Texas A, and I'm here to have a chance.
So very small lean though, Brian on under forty seven
and a half.
Speaker 1: Okay, there you go, Ralph, what do you think here?
We have a small lean to the under from Ross?
What angle would you be taking on this one? A third,
the third string quarterback by the way, for Missoo is
a true freshman.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was gonna say a true freshman. He did
play well, but that it's so much different coming in
and going twenty of twenty nine, you know, in a
backup role versus the team prepping for you as A
and N is It's scary that Ross and I have
basically agreed on the first three games. Not scary because
I'm happy to agree with wager Talk's number one college
football handicap for the last couple of years. But I
am going to go for I'm going to go Missouri
team total under. Missouri is gonna run the ball. There's
no question with a true freshman against this defense. This
defense has thirty two sacks on the year. The Missouri
OH line is decent.
Speaker 4: You know, when you have Hardy who rushes for five
point nine and you have Robert Sue rushes for six
point five yards per carry. That opens up some holes.
Speaker 3: But both teams are basically facing the top rush defenses
they faced all year. I think I think Missouri. I'll
actually correct what I meant to say. I'm gonna go
Missouri team total first half under. They're gonna need a
lot of time to get this quarterback situated. They're likely
gonna kick off first to let their defense try to
control the game. I don't think they're gonna take the
ball with a true freshman quarterback defense. I think they
want to let him settled watch some of the games.
So to me, if I'm A and M I take
the ball. If I'm on Missouri, I don't take the ball.
That's an advantageous edge for being a first half better
because you likely get one less possession. But the Missouri
the A and M defense again allowing three point nine
yards per carry, and the only time they've got rattled
all year besides the opener against UTSA, they went to Arkansas.
They allowed two hundred and sixty eight yards per game
and eight point four yards per carry. But that Arkansas
rush game and that Arkansas offense is leap years ahead
of what Missouri is. So for me, conservative game plan
for the young quarterback for an offense at the last
four weeks already has only averaged three hundred and fifty
six yards per game, and that was with privula and
first half team total.
Speaker 1: Under for me, all right, drilling it down a little
bit more with the first half team total under. That's
the way Ralph is going. Certainly, A and M. You
don't need to remind me, guys, and I'm played one
heck of a second half against LSU there two weeks ago.
Both these teams off byes. It'll be interesting to see
Amad Hardy, with the running back for Missou, what he
can do in this matchup. Obviously a lot more pressure
on him with the injuries at the quarterback position. All right,
let's take a break from our rundown real quick, Ralph,
I know we have another exclusive deal to let the
people know about here on the Blitz. Why don't you
tell everyone about that right now?
Speaker 3: Well, the Weekend Warriors still active, guys, so don't worry.
If you're interested in that, it's a great deal, feel
free to do that. But we do have an exclusive
special just for the three of us, So it's good
for Brian Ross and me, and you can use it
as many times as you want on the three of us.
It's good through Sunday at midnight. The code is Blitz
twenty five, no space, Blitz two five, and it's twenty
five percent any package of two ninety.
Speaker 4: Nine or more. So, to give you two examples, the
rest of the college football season is currently two ninety nine.
If you want one of the three.
Speaker 3: Of us for the rest of the season, the code
Blitz twenty five will save you seventy four dollars and
seventy five cents.
Speaker 4: You pay just two hundred and twenty four dollars and
twenty five sense. But listen to this.
Speaker 3: If you get the college football and NFL combo, it
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Speaker 4: So Blitz twenty five. Check it out.
Speaker 3: By the way, I have a five percent NFL play
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Speaker 1: Ross. I want to give you thank you, by the way,
Ralph for doing that. Ross. I want to give you
now a chance to talk about what you've got going on,
and I also then want to get into our next
game on the rundown. It is a very interesting game.
I think the most interesting game of the weekend because
we were all aligned on Texas Tech again BYU in
the top ten matchup. But for me, the most interesting
game is Oregon Iowa. So you could take it whichever
direction you want Ross, if you want to talk, tell
the people what you've got going this weekend, and then
go right into the breakdown. Feel free. But Oregon I
was next on the dockets, So there you go.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Saturday in college football three to five plays not
posted yet but they will be and a five percent
top play included seven and two in college football five
percent best bets this year. And I'm coming off the
first losing weekend in football this since the first week
of September. So beware of the wounded boss. And that's
Ross when he when he's coming off a losing week
because I respond more times than that in huge fashion,
and I plan on doing so here and again, don't
forget the three hundred and sixty five days all access
pass as well. Folks, usually nineteen ninety nine, Now it's
fourteen ninety nine, and you're going to get five hundred
dollars off a little more than four dollars a day.
Why do I bring that up because over the last
six months, I've now made a net profit of one
hundred and thirty two units in all sports, and that's
even with a terrible week last week. So I'm bouncing
back and take advantage of these offers and listen to
what Ralph said too. Those are some pretty damn good
offers from me. College football number one in number one,
excuse me a win percentage, number one in return on investment,
number two in units earned twenty six and fourteen this season,
sixty five percent over forty units in net profit went
number one, and both win percentage and units earned last
year in college football twenty twenty three, I was number
two in my college football and NFL combined, Brian, even
with last week where it was just terrible, I'm still
a combined forty and twenty four in college football in
the NFL since September eleventh. So that weekend Warrior special folks,
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Speaker 1: Yeah, Obviously, bad weekends can happen to happen to me.
Two weeks ago. Ross two weeks ago, it bit me,
but we bounced back last week. I'll tell the people
about what I've got going on a little bit. You see,
if you're watching us live, you see in the chat
right now, Hey guys, there's any other games you want
to talk. We are going to talk about Oregon Iowa
here in a second Notre Dame Navy as well. That
completes around. Any other games you want to talk about,
drop them in the chat and we will be sure
to get to them after we get through our rundowns.
So all right, Oregon Iowa. Actually let me go to you, Ralph.
I'll give you the first crack, because I know that
you guys were agreeing so much on the first I
want to give you the first crack on one now, Ralph,
on this Oregon Iowa metric, I think it's very interesting. Preseason.
I bet Oregon to miss the college football playoff right now,
it does not look like a good bet. That's the
one in my preseason power five that I don't know
if we're gonna get their, folks, But I'm looking at
this Oregon schedule, guys. Rest of the way, there's some
land mines, and this week Kinnick, it's a tough place
to win. I think Iowa deserves to be ranked. I
don't know what you guys can think about that, but
I've got them power rate in the top twenty. Ralph,
is Iowa live here? Can they pull the upset or
at least stay within the number?
Speaker 3: Oh my nope, You know, you look at their defense
and you say, oh my god, they can slow anybody.
They're only allowing two hundred and thirty five yards per game,
They're only allowing eighty four yards rushing and three point
six yards per carry, and they are only allowing fifty
five point eight percent completions.
Speaker 4: Those are absolutely amazing numbers.
Speaker 3: But let me just quickly go out on their schedule
and tell me how many top thirty offenses you see.
Iowa State U masked Rutgers. Rutgers is a top thirty.
They allowed four hundred yards Indiana. They lost to Indiana.
They played a good game against Indiana, allowing three hundred
and thirty seven yards. That was one hundred and eighty
nine yards under their average, So I do give them that.
And then Wisconsin, Penn State, Minnesota, So their numbers are
based on their very weak set of offenses they faced.
Indiana to me, was in a situation where they're still
learning how to win.
Speaker 4: Granted, they got there.
Speaker 3: Last year, they got to the playoffs, but a unique
situation for Oregon. You you got to Penn State, you
win that game. Penn State was still a partial team
at that point. You come home, you lose to Indiana.
You go take out your frustrations against Rutgers with seven
hundred and fifty yards. You play Wisconsin another good defense
and that is three hundred and thirty five yards. So
you see that they have been slowed couple times against
Big ten defenses. But I think that helps them here.
The difference is against Indiana, they couldn't rush the ball,
and even though Iowa's got some good rush defense numbers,
they did allow one hundred and seventy yards to Penn State,
they allowed Wisconsin one hundred and twenty seven yards. I
think that's the difference in this game. Oregon will be
able to rush on Iowa. Last couple games for Oregon
two hundred plus yards, they've topped two hundred yards rushings
five times. They're averaging six point three yards per carry
in Big Ten play, They're averaging five point eight yards
per carry in two hundred and ten yards per game.
It's not gonna make my card, it's not even in
my top twenty, but I think Oregon does get it
done against Iowa.
Speaker 4: I think them seeing couple tough.
Speaker 3: Defenses in Indiana Wisconsin clearly helps them in this situation
versus Iowa facing the fastest team faced all season.
Speaker 1: Okay, Ralph not buying the dog in this spot ross
Titans CT. In the chat, he brought up a point,
Yes this is true. Dan Lanning, he head coach of Oregon.
Of course he was. He whined and got this kickoff
time moved down to three thirty. He did not want
the noon eastern kickoff, obviously Oregon coming from the Pacific
time zones. Since the Big ten expan that there's been
a lot of discourse, rightfully, so about you know, the
teams out west starting early, the teams from out east
kicking off late? What do you think Roth? Three thirty? Good?
Nice neutral kickoff for these two teams from different times.
How do you handicap this one?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I I you know, I again I agree with Ralph.
It's really scary, right, Ralph, for four games in a row.
Now we agreed. I'm almost gonna disagree with you on
Navy Notre Dames, just so we don't jinx each other.
But in any event, look, here's the difference. I see,
Iowa's improved offensively compared to what they've been, but there's
still borderline and neemic. I mean, yeah, they're very misleading.
Thirty one point three points per game when you consider
the fact they're only averaging three hundred and eighteen yards
per contest and they're only averaging five point two yards
per play. Then you go on the other side in Oregon.
Everybody thinks about Iowa's defense, and that's the main thing
to look at, and usually they have the better defense
in any matchup they play against the opposition for the
most part. But I beg to differ here because Oregon's
defense is probably the most overlooked part of their game,
and they're only averaging allowing sixteen points per game and
two hundred and sixty three point seven yards per contest.
This Oregon's offense, this is where the difference comes in.
You're looking at it a team that's averaging five hundred
and seventeen yards per game and eight point one yards
per play, and that's on the road. Okay, So in
all games, they're averaging four hundred and eighty five point
one yards per game and seven point five yards per
play on the road, Ralph, this Oregon team is plus
three point nine yards per play net. Okay. When you
look at Iowa again at home, they're plus one point seven.
But overall, again I just think Oregon's offense this is
a protal, a typical example of a team that might
be able to stay in the game with their defense
early meaning Iowa. But I just see Oregon wearing them
down from an offensive standpoint, because they're able to stay
on the field and sustain drives a lot more than
IOWA does. And if they can stay away from turnovers,
especially creating short fields and not giving up a special
team's return touchdown, that's where IOWA has really amped up
their points per game as compared to what they're really
gaining per contest. I think Oregon wins this game by
a couple of touchdowns. I'm going to take the Ducks here,
le six on the road.
Speaker 1: All right, we got some Duck believers here on the panel, Ralph.
Speaker 2: Yes.
Speaker 3: Let me just add one more thing for the Oregon Ducks.
Their offense are almost like hockey lines.
Speaker 4: Listen.
Speaker 3: Listen to these Listen to these stats for their four
running backs this year. Wittington four hundred and thirty three
yards eight point five yards per carry, four TDS. Hill
three hundred and fifty seven yards nine point nine yards
per carry, three TDS. Davison three hundred and fifty two
yards seven point zero yards per carry, ten tds and
uh Lemur five point nine yards per carry three tds.
That is four running backs two hundred and fifty yards
six yards per carry, and all of them have three
touchdowns or more. When you have that type of depth
in your backfield, that is damn scary.
Speaker 1: It is. And look, all your guys points are well taken.
I'm gonna say this stuff. Maybe it's not this week,
but Oregon still has USC. They still have Washington. For
those of you in the chat who are a little
skeptical about this team, maybe like I am, this Oregon team,
they're gonna lose before the end of the regulars. They will
drop one game. It may not be here, but Oregon
will drop a game before the end of the regular season.
I'm gonna I see a Miller like bet on the
line here.
Speaker 4: Brian.
Speaker 2: Okay, Brian, who is I mean? You're talking about land Mines.
What are the four games? I mean? I know they.
Speaker 1: Play that, they're at Washington and they host USC. I
think USC is a good football team. And remember Lincoln
Riley does not have to leave the Pacific time zone
for that game.
Speaker 2: Always yeah, but I mean again, USC. If that game
was at USC, I could see it USC to go
into Oregon in the position Oregon's in, going in undefeated
and looking for one of those top four seeds. I
don't see it, but you know, again, we'll see how
it plays out.
Speaker 4: Ran just the longest Fyi, Brian. My power ratings have.
Speaker 3: Oregon only by eleven and a half at home against USC.
Speaker 4: So I you know, I can stranger things have happened.
Speaker 1: It's college football November.
Speaker 2: I agree with you. They are a good team. I
don't know.
Speaker 1: Well, we'll see, We'll see. Like I said, stranger things.
I just feel like Oregon, everyone's just assumes they're gonna
be the playff. You know what they say about when
you assume, all right, we have one more game. I
assume Notre Dame is gonna beat Navy this week. Guys,
but we have a very large point spread to talk about.
And I generally like service academies as underdogs. Now Navy
they've failed to cover five row. They were unbeaten though
by the way, going to last week they ran into
the old mean green of North Texas. They the odds
makers were telling you there, Bross that what they thought
that they tried to tell the people that Navy was
going to suffer their first loss, and sure enough they did.
North Texas look good. Notre Dame another one of those
teams trying it that just basically obviously they just need
to win out. They're in the college football playoff. What
do you think here? Believe it? My Power Ratings actually
said this number was short at the open. The market agrees.
Notre Dame's taken some money. But I don't want to
lay this. I know Navy, it's not you know, the
nineteen fifties. They're not totally going to slow it down,
and the game got away from them last year against
Nordre Dame. But I don't like laying this many points
against the Service academy.
Speaker 4: I just don't.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you look at the last two matchups.
Navy went into the Notre Dame game last year as
a six to zero team and nationally ranked and lose
fifty one fourteen.
Speaker 1: Notre Dame was awesome in that game.
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah. And the year before they played in Ireland
and Notre Dame one forty two to three. Both games
were under Navy head coach Brian Newberry, who's now in
his third year. So Brian Newberry's had very little success
against Notre Dame and you know, joined the club because
a lot of teams in the last couple of years
haven't had a lot of success against Notre Dame. You
know the big thing here, I'd like to I just
can't lay a number this big confidently. But if you
put the proverbial gun to my head. Look, here's the thing. Navy.
Still they're an improved passing team, and I'm sure Ralph
will point that out. They have a very good quarterback
and Blake Corbat who could beat you both with his
arm and his legs. However, still their cup of tea
is running the ball, and that's their strength. And you
look at even last week and I lost against North Texas.
They had three hundred and eleven yards rushing, four hundred
and eleven yards offense. We killed them last week they
all gained North Texas. The problem was, well, they weren't.
They did not a game. I take them back, but
they were all game by just thirty three yards. But
turnovers killed them. I mean they were They turned the
ball over three times. They didn't force any turnovers, and
you look at Navy's turnover differential, and it's pretty pretty
much about even. But you look at Notre Dame. Look
at Notre Dame. In their last six games, they forced.
Speaker 4: Three three, three, four two two.
Speaker 2: Turnovers and they've forced let me see, three, six, nine, thirteen, fifteen, seventeen, eighteen,
and they've only turned the ball over eight times. They're
plus ten turnover margin. And Navy, don't forget folks again,
they're calling carricters. Their run game and their past game
has improved, Ralph. But the bottom line is they're not
built to come from behind. And I just don't see
how they stay in this game competitively where they could
just continue to run the ball time after time, and
Notre Dame's pretty darn good against the run, Ralph, the
last time I checked.
Speaker 4: Damn you Ross, all right, so let me let me
say this.
Speaker 3: You say, oh my god, you know Navy is rushing
the last four games two hundred eighty two yards per
game and six point seven yards per carry. But I
want to point out two things. How many FBS teams
are there?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you're talking about Air Force Temple Florida
Atlantic in nortyn exactly.
Speaker 3: Okay, there's one hundred and thirty six FBS teams. We've
played seven, eight or nine games this college football season.
Navy has played the number one hundred and forty six
toughest schedule. That means thirteen at least thirteen FCS teams
have played a tougher schedule the last four games that
Ross just mentioned. Those teams have rush defenses of one,
twenty nine, one thirty, one, twenty four, and one fifteen.
Now one team better than the one hundred and fifteenth rush defense.
Oh yeah, by the way, Notre Dame number twelve. Let's
also remember it is much different playing a option team
if you don't regularly see them. Well, guess what. Notre
Dame preps for this every summer. They see Navy every year.
In fact, last year they played Navy and Army, so
they saw two option teams. So you have a team
that knows how to prep for the option by far
the best rush defense they've ever faced, and a team
that is shell shocked playing this good of a team
in Navy. I'm gonna go Navy team total under, and
you know I'm gonna go full game on this one
in case something fluky happens in the first But just
there's no way I.
Speaker 4: Can get to the Navy side.
Speaker 3: I'm not interested in laying a Notre Dame because Notre
Dame has not played fast. They've scored quickly a couple times,
but they're actually number one hundred three and in plays
per game, and Navy's number one hundred and twenty one
in plays per game. Added up to me, it is
Navy team total under that gets me out of the
laying the big chalk with the Irish, And therefore Ross
and I don't have to have the same play, are right, Hey,
sometimes you know the people probably like it.
Speaker 1: Would we agree obviously, it could make them maybe a
little more confident in their own bets. The Navy schedule
is fascinating, Ralph, I've got hope here. They were a
double digit favorite each of those first seven wins to
open the year. They're a dog last week to North Texas, obvious,
they're a huge dog here to Notre Dame. Well, guess what,
They're gonna be a dog the next two games too,
against USF and at Memphis as well, so that there
they're under their record.
Speaker 3: Certainly will yeah, with youw offenses that can that can
score with anybody, Maybe he's gonna have to score forty
to be in either one of those games.
Speaker 4: We'll see if they Yeah.
Speaker 2: And here's the thing, were there have been a favorite
all along until the North Texas game. But against FBS
opponents this year, Navy's just won in six against the spread,
and they won six or seven games straight up. So
it's not like I can make a strong case compared
the last year's Navy's team Navy team. I think this
year's Navy team is a bit weaker, and I think
the big difference is they were much better defensively last
year than they were this year they are this year.
Speaker 4: Yep, ross good point.
Speaker 3: The last four games for Navy against those crappy opponents
they allowed four sixty five eighteen, four fifty and four
to twenty four. You're talking about a defense that isn't
very deep getting worn down. In the four games of
the season, they allowed about three hundred yards per game.
Speaker 4: Last four they're at four to sixty three.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna say the last four games they might be
allowing five hundred and fifty yards.
Speaker 4: Looking at Notre Dame, USF Memphis.
Speaker 1: And then you know, Army O the day, Army, Yeah,
Army to close the air and that's not Yeah, I
mean they can go from seven to oh to seven
and five real quick.
Speaker 2: And I think the difference too, though, is is Notre
Dames defense as opposed to UCF and Memphis. Notre Dames
defense is on another plane. UCF is very good, but look,
they give up a lot of the arts. Okay, same
thing with Memphis. You look at their defensive numbers not
even close to the caliber of this Notre Dame defense.
So you know a lot of aspects to look here.
At the end of the day, it's still a big
points spread in it. I don't disagree with Rolf's under
on Navy.
Speaker 1: Though they always call it the great equalizer for a raison. Look,
I've apologi I've since apologized. I remember Notre Dame's defense
was called out earlier in the year it was not
playing up the stuff after the losses to Miami and
Texas A and M and then they just flipped the
switch start with that Arkansas game. Man, I've got on
the record on the Power five guys. I've apologied because
I didn't think Notre Dame was going to be able
to do it and run the table, make the playoff,
and now obviously on the oddien.
Speaker 3: You look, they only a lot of three hundred and
twenty four yards to Miami. That's not bad performance at all.
That's a season both for Miami. So while you say,
I actually say it's a positive. Yeah, it's aged well. Yeah, yeah,
it's aged well.
Speaker 1: And obviously you know the fact that Notre Dame was
favored in both of those laws. You know, I mean
this is a team Notre Dame is very high on
their top five team in my power ratings right now,
Notre Dame. So they've got them in the right direction.
Sounds like we all think Navy's lost at sea. We
are never lost at c if I may use the
terrible pun their dad, Alexander. Because we have the chat,
we will be getting to our best bets momentarily. All
three of us have a best bet to share with you.
But before that, obviously, this is a live program. We
want to stay as interactive as possible. So let's now
turn to some of your questions, and we've got one
on Yukon and Duke. Tough spot for Duke stepping, stepping
out of the acc play laying a number on the run.
I like Yukon here, plus the points Titan CT I'll
tell you that right now, this is close to even
actually making my card. Yeah, I think the dog is
absolutely live in this one. I don't know if either
of you guys have anything to share on that one.
Speaker 2: Well, if you go by common opponents and you believe
in that theory, U com played at Syracuse earlier this year,
it took the Orange to overtime, and that's with Steve
Aangeli at quarterback.
Speaker 1: Big difference for Syracuse, yes, yeah.
Speaker 2: And then Duke at Syracuse earlier this season and they
win thirty eight to I think thirty eight to three.
Real lopsided game at Syracuse. So if you believe in
that common opponent and matching how each team did against
a common opponent, Duke's definitely the better team here, Brian,
and they definitely have more class. But you make a
good point. I mean, it's a hell of a time
to stick in an independent with not a big brand
name in the middle of your ACC schedule.
Speaker 3: I'll tell you what I really liked the I like
the ukon offense. I like what more is done over
in this game. I mean, both offenses are far superior
to their defenses. You know, and you know, you know Duke.
Duke put a forty six against Clemson, right and you
know then they got them in Virginia. So I'm looking
to look at some Duke overs and and Yukon last
week against UAB. You know, they put up thirty eight
UAD only put up nineteen week before, four hundred yards
at Rice, four hundred and fifty five yards at Boston College,
five hundred and twenty seven yards at against FIU. Again
some week defenses as well, but I like that Jim
more offense.
Speaker 4: For the Huskies.
Speaker 1: The check and correct me if I'm wrong on this
one here, guys, I believe Duke. When they played Serio
that I believe was Syracuse's first game without.
Speaker 2: Rick the quarterback, you know which. Still it was still
one sided, it absolutely was.
Speaker 1: Here's here's something to consider though, when you're getting this
many points with Yukon. Guys, this is unbelievable. I swear
it's true. I would never lie to the people. I
would certainly never lie to either of you, Ross or Ralph.
There are five teams in the FS that have not
lost the game in regulation this year, Okay, one of
them is Yukon. Yukon. All of their losses are in overtime.
Give me the points with the Huskies here. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
I hear you. I hear you. Yeah, I hear you.
Speaker 3: And you know, you can say it's a positive. You
can also say it's a negative that they don't know
how to finish. But again, that to me, would only
be relevant if you have a line between the threes
or between the touchdowns for that type of team that
can't finish the game.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get another question from the chat here
and oh Jay Buff is in as always. Jay Buffer
joined us for the College Basketball Show. If I may
have a shameless plug here Full Court Press, Wager talks
new college hoops show involving myself. Yes, if you can't
get enough of me here on the Blitz, I also
do an hour every morning with Rob Veno and Adam
Trigger talking college hoops card Jay Buff joins that show
is live as well. We take your questions. Hope to
see you there again every Monday through Friday, ten am Eastern.
Jay Buff likes Kentucky and Wake Forest and it says,
no ohio chatter they got Yes, okay, I'll be honest
with you, we cheated on that game. When he touchdown
on Tuesday gets Miami. I'm not going to run from it. Okay,
it's Halloween week, Jay Buff. You come from a different
campus down to Athens that week, Strange things are gonna
happen to you. We got away with the hold, we
won the game. I'll take it. I had Ohio. That
was my five dollars Tuesday play, by the way, But
what do you guys think? Ross? You pick one of them.
I'll let you pick first. Do you want to go
with the Kentucky Kentucky hosting Florida or Wake Forest traveling
to this absolute luck box Virginia team. You pick one
and then I'll let Ralph tackle the other.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I like Kentucky here as a three
point dog. They finally got off to schneid them in
Mississippi State last week to get their first SEC wins
in quite a while. They had the longest losing streaks
in SEC play going into last week. Kentucky's off it's
as much improved that was there enigma to start the season.
What they've come on as the season has progressed. Florida
losing that heartbreaker to Georgia, even though I think all
of us said that was a danger spot for the
Georgia Bulldogs. Why were they just a seven point favorite
in that game? So I'm gonna take I'm gonna have
a lean toward Kentucky here catching the three at home
against the Florida team. Again, that's playing with a lame
duck coaching staff and stoops over at Kentucky has been
a main stay there, and I think the Kentucky Wildcats
carry over the momentum from a win a week ago
and continue it here against the Florida Gators.
Speaker 1: Okay, Ralph, you want to talk about Virginia Wake Forest. Look,
I've said my piece on this Virginia team on Malton. Yes,
my good friend Aaron Kid was very upset with me
on Twitter what I called his team the luckiest team
in America. Look, they're the luckiest team in America. And
by the way, if you had Virginia last week to
help you, help you is Virginia.
Speaker 4: Is Virginia more lucky or is Auburn more unlucky? That
is a great question.
Speaker 1: That is a great question. Yes, I know those teams
are at polar opposites of the luck ratings this year
for sure, But did you have anything on that? In obviously,
Wake Forest traveling to Virginia the only promise. I think
the numbers a little short. Odds makers know everyone wants
to bet against Virginia, and they're not giving us the
numbers we want.
Speaker 3: Ralph, you know I did not see the Cal game
against Virginia, but I mean I obviously heard what happened.
Speaker 4: But I'll tell you what I cannot get out of
my mind.
Speaker 3: And sometimes it doesn't matter how long you've been handicapping
as bad as Chandler Morris looked at North Carolina two
weeks ago, he looked like he had deer in the headlights. Now, granted,
North Carolina's defense has greatly improved the last five or
six games. I actually think they're probably like a top
thirty defense if you look at what the Tower Hills done.
But this is at home, so that puts it in
a different perspective. But I like the Wake Forest defense
as well. They're actually a top twenty defense. They're holding
opponents to almost one hundred yards per game under what
their average allows. You don't think about it, but they
allowed Florida State for twenty one last week. That's actually
Florida State's only fourth highest. They held SMU to a
season low two forty six the week before. I'm not
gonna get there because Chandler Morris at home can be
a different quarterback.
Speaker 2: Than he can.
Speaker 4: But I my first instinct would be lean under.
Speaker 3: But this is way down at the bottom of my pile,
so don't put too much stock in my opinion.
Speaker 1: Obviously for anyone who missed it, Virginia had a late
pick six to cover the spread last week at cal
So there you go with that one right there by
the Wake Forest. I guarantee they're gonna play better than
they did last week against Florida State. Florida State was
a winner for me last Saturday night. Boy, did they
come out of the shoots play that was the seminals.
That was the best of the seminoles looks since the
Alabama game. So you could bet Wakes could come out
there Aaron fire after being embarrassed down in Tallahassee. Do
we have another question from the chat, sir, and what
do you think about Vandy giving Auburn? Well, there it
is okay. From the lucky to the unlucky Auburn.
Speaker 5: Ralph mentioned him Auburn another team, Hugh Freeze, He's got
more time to make phone calls, I suppose now, but
let's see, I don't know think they can't lose them all,
can they?
Speaker 4: Guys?
Speaker 1: I mean this is the interim coach. I mean they
when they lose, they lose close. I kind of want
to take Auburn. To be honest here, do you guys have.
Speaker 2: Any Rolf's got a good stat on interim coaches this year,
they get a pretty good record, so I won't steal
as thunder, But yeah, I mean Vandy, Auburn's a tough
team to blow out. At the end of the day.
They play very good defense in her catching points at home.
I certainly wouldn't be brave enough to predict an out
right upset here, but I do think very small lean
this isn't going to be on my premium card. I
do think that Auburn will stay in this game throughout,
and that will give them an excellent opportunity to stay
inside this number.
Speaker 3: So Ralph, I'm just gonna lean under. To be honest
with you, I I think I had the Auburn game
wrong in the first five weeks, and I've just stopped
looking at them thankfully, you know, because they could be
sol frustrating, you know, but it's tough to be an
SEC team and think that you had a shot to be,
you know, middle of the road bowl and now all
of a sudden you lost five or six games. The
only game you won was Arkansas and the only reason
you beat Arkansas because you're plus three turnovers. You put
Auburn on a playing field and if the team doesn't
turn the ball over, they're not gonna win. You look
at Anderbilt, They've only been minus turnovers in three games.
They were minus one against Texas, which may have cost
him the game, minus two against Alabama, which they lost,
and minus one against Virginia Tech. Again a shitty team
early in the year, but to me, Van is the
team that everyone believed in Pavia was so excited.
Speaker 4: Losing to Alabama doesn't.
Speaker 3: Dash their hopes, but the comeback against Texas is tough.
All that emotion in the fourth quarter to get close
and then end up losing and then coming back home.
Speaker 4: Two desperate teams. So al Lean under and al Lean Auburn.
Speaker 2: I guess interim head coaches this year, Rolf I.
Speaker 4: Think there was I think they're six and oh I
might have missed one.
Speaker 1: But Colorado State did lose Colorado State lost to Wyoming,
didn't they? I think? But I think that's yeah. And
then yeah, Florida covered last week but didn't Yeah, didn't win.
Speaker 4: And I liked Wyoming last week too.
Speaker 3: That that again, I said this couple of weeks ago,
that is a situation that would not phaze me. That
is not a long term trend. That is just something
that's happened this year because of and even you know,
we talked about, you know, the new intrimid LSU. You know,
these coaches are becoming very creative, you know, bring going
back to the LSU game. I think is their head
coach now, he's an our geron and Pete Carroll, and
he has a drum that he beats in there, and
the players are going to be able to beat the
drum if they make a big play. So with college kids,
quirky little things like that can get him excited one game,
but it wears off pretty quick.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I could add this too, if I can
Brian real quickly his interim head coaches, if the kids
believe that the interim head coach has a legitimate chance
to take over as a head coach depending on how
they finished the season. Now, they don't have to worry
about transferring because it's a whole new coaching staff. There's
familiarity there, So I think that comes into play a lot.
And I'd be curious, and I don't know this. Ralph's right,
this is an oddity for interim head coaching staffs to
have the record they do this year. But I'd be
interested in how many of those head coaches that compiled
into that six and one record really have a legitimate,
legitimate chance to take over that program the following year.
At the Power conference level, it's normally not the case, agree,
guys or no?
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, And again a lot of times you got
to remember most of most of the guys that become
head coaches are the quality OC's and DC's. Yeah, your
interims are normally not your OC or DC because they
want to keep the continuity in the offense and the defense.
So it's the special teams coach or the assistant coach.
So the best coach is not always the interim. They're
trying to keep the other units calm, peaceful, and have
some continuity to them.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Debo Sweeney actually was an interim head coach when
Clemson got off to he was.
Speaker 4: The wide receiver coach.
Speaker 2: He wasn't ThEC A good point.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And obviously this year has been so unique with
so many in season you you don't normally see this.
I mean it's gonna happen more and more obviously, Yes,
And I own money allows them.
Speaker 3: You know, if there was no retail money and there
were no boosters like they were, LSU doesn't fire them,
Florida doesn't fire them.
Speaker 4: Now it doesn't matter, you know what. The money's free flowing.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you just don't want to fall be It's an
arms race in these big conference You just don't want
to fall behind. Guys don't want to risk, you know.
Speaker 3: All right, and look what's happened, right, James Franklin gets
fired and then all of anudden, Signetti gets a thirteen
million dollar a year a raise, and then some guy
in Nebraska who I think is what twenty seven and
twenty five gets a six million dollar raise because they
think they might could have had to try to get
their coach. So hey, being over five hundred now in
college football is being like an old left handed starter
in the MLB.
Speaker 4: You just get pay.
Speaker 2: Yeah, took over at a program that it was a mess,
at Nebraska and his defense.
Speaker 3: And I'm a big fan. I love what he did
Temple third year. I love what he did at Baylor's
third year. So I am a fan, but I'm just
I agree.
Speaker 1: With you, all right. I think we have one more
question before we get to the best BET's best place
to find? Oh, here's an interesting one, not a specific game,
just the best place to find both college and NFL
advanced stats as EPA, per c PSR, ETCTERA. Where do
you got do you guys go? Is there any place
you got you want to direct J two that you
go to for stats?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 1: Specific place?
Speaker 2: Well, I mean there's a couple of places, but they're
pretty much competitors, you know, so I don't want to
give any Well, I could say because Covers doesn't sell
picks anymore. Covers in in stat Fox is another one.
It's not now called stat Shark.
Speaker 4: Yeah, stat Shark they're like twenty they're twenty nine dollars
a month now.
Speaker 2: But I yeah, very reasonable, you know, But I do
a lot of my own.
Speaker 3: I mean, for there's not advanced analytics because it's so
much different in the NFL.
Speaker 4: You can have advanced analytics.
Speaker 3: Because at the beginning of the season, you probably only
have a twelve point variant from top to bottom, you know,
maybe fifteen or eighteen now when you got some crappy
teams like Tennessee. But in college football you have a
sixty point vari and so the analytics can't work. It's
not the same thing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, was he asking for advanced analytics or advanced stats?
Speaker 1: I think I think he was just I think I
think he's looking for stats in general. Jay, if you
wanted to, you know what, James a great.
Speaker 3: Easy site that's free, CFB stats because you can break
them down. They have all the national rankings, but on
the left tool bar you can then look against conference teams,
against power forward teams, against winning teams, against losing teams.
Speaker 4: So it allows you a lot of ability to be
able to devvy out those stats.
Speaker 1: All right, hopefully that answered your question, Jay, If not,
feel free hit us up. You could find, of course,
the replay of this on the Wagehot YouTube channel and
we can answer any specifics and maybe even link you there. Okay,
I think we're coming to the end of the program,
and that means it's time for our best bets. We're
each going to share one here for you before I
get into mine, I would like you all to know
we're on the night. We're heating up this week. Six
and one run in football since last Saturday, it's a
perfect three four to three in college hit our game
of the week. Think thankfully we got in at two
and a half with Texas last week. I thought some
prayers to those of you who got stuck with the
three or even worse three and a half. That was horrible. Hey,
I was with you. I was. I was afraid that
Vandy was going to go for two and get inside
all numbers there, But thankfully they didn't. Had the winner
with Ohio as part of two dollars, two dollars, five
dollars Tuesday, So I made it a six and one
run over all in football, sixty seven percent in the
NFL going back to October. The six that includes the
Cardinals outright on Monday night. And speaking of underdogs, and
I think are live. Let's go to Saturday for my
best bet is the Temple Owl. Somebody qpil gift here
for me. Here's the deal with the Army got Temple's
playing Army, Temple's getting seven. Here's what you need to
know about Temple. Okay, they did not play well last
week against East Carolina. They're set on the back end.
They got carved up by the East Carolina passing attack. Well,
guess what they don't need to worry about that against Army,
who runs a triple option. Now, Army's coming off the
game against air Force. Obviously, that's always an emotional situation
part of the Commander in Chief Trophy series. Army wins
that game twenty to seventeen on a last second field goal,
but they were out gained, okay by a modest forty yards.
But here's the key. Army was plus three and turnovers.
Two of those air Force turnovers came in the red zone,
and that game winning field goal was set up by
a kind of wild forty yard pass. Temple. We talked
in the Notre Dame Navy breakdown earlier in this program,
we talked about preparing for these Service Academy teams. Well,
Temple's already played Navy. Temple should have won that game.
I was on Temple plus the points. They should have
absolutely won it. Temple has pulled some upsets this year
as well. Guys. Not only did they cover against Navy,
losing by only one as a ten point dog, but
they won outright. Granted at home against UTSA, and UTSA
is not the same on the road as they are
at home. But still, this is a Temple team that's
played eight teams tough. I like them in the underdog role.
The fact that we're able to get them seven here,
I think is a good deal. So give me the
seven with the Owls Temple. That is my show. Best
be Ralph. I'll go to you next again.
Speaker 4: If you're watching live, a five percent NFL up. Now,
if you're not, grab that weekend Warrior.
Speaker 3: Take advantage of Blitz twenty five that is valid only
for Ross the Boss, Brian Power, and myself twenty five
percent off any package two ninety nine or more.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go Arkansas State.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 4: I don't watch many Sun Belt games. I watched some
highlights and I do.
Speaker 3: I do a radio or pods show every Friday morning
from Alabama with long Shore and McKnight, and Garry McKnight
is actually the play by play caller for Troy, so
we talk Troy football a lot on the show, and
I get a good feel for it. So I watched
this Arkansas State team beat Troy last week and the
offense only had two hundred and ninety seven yards, but
that defense was amazing. Now we're not talking about an
elite offense with Troy, but when you hold some of
the one hundred and eighty seven yards, eleven first downs
and you sack them nine times, it catches your attention.
Speaker 4: This Arkansas State.
Speaker 3: Defense has had has held two of the last three
opponents to a season low, the other opponent to a
season number two low. They have thirteen sacks on defense
two sacks on offense the last three games. Southern Miss
has a very good offensive line. They don't rush the
ball well, but they do hold them stacks. I think
that that breaks up the game and then they look
at rush defense over the last three or four weeks.
Speaker 4: I give the heads to Arkansas State as well.
Speaker 3: At home four straight wins, they beat an FCS team,
they lose four straight, they win four straight SMU, four
straight wins. I'm going to take the home team better
current form for the defense, and I actually feel a
team can run the ball better than the Eagles.
Speaker 4: So Arkansas State for me.
Speaker 1: Oh red Wolves, all right, the red Wolves, So it's Temple,
that's Arkansas State.
Speaker 4: Okay, Ross like top if you go from the.
Speaker 1: Say, hey, that's what the rundown is for. The rundown
is to talk about those marquee games that everyone wants
to hear about. Ross round out this three leg par way.
Speaker 2: Yeah. You know, sometimes you got to go to the
FC well FBS group of five, you know, to find
the hidden value. And I think I have one here.
I think Ralph may as well. You know what, Ralph,
you're a marketing genius. The state Alabama. I think that
might be the most popular state for sports betting, or
especially college football betty is state Alabama. And I also
would pay to see the expressions on people's face with
those Southern drawls down there to listen to Ralph talk,
you know. So anyway, you're my idle rough. In any event,
FIU is squaring off against Middle Tennessee State this week.
The total in this game is fifty one. I look
at these types of things teams. Both teams are coming
off and under, and FIU has played three and zero
to the over in their last three games, following an
under in their previous contest. Those three games sixty six
points per game. Middle Tennessee is certainly not an offensive juggernaut.
But I think they'll get their fair share points here
and I'll tell you in the second why. But they're
also coming off an under. Like I alluded to three
and one to the over this year when coming off
an under in their previous game, fifty five point eight
points combined scored per contest in those four games FIU
last three games, their offense really clicking at four hundred
and thirty nine yards per game, and they're averaging in
nels three contests seventy one point three offensive plays per game.
Rough can speak better than this, but I think that's
a pretty good tempo ralph and their defense over their
last four games thirty two point five points per game
allowed over four hundred and forty three yards of total
offense to the opposition. So I think Middle Tennessee Kid,
they'll go over their season average in points and yards
in this contest in FIU, like I alluded to, playing
at a very fast paced and very improved offensively. I
gave you the numbers over the last three games. I'm
going to go over the total of fifty one in
the game between Middle Tennessee State and FIU.
Speaker 3: Brian, let me let me quantify one thing for Ross,
because Ross I actually have those numbers. FIU is number
twenty nine in the country in plays per game, so
very fast. Middle Tennessee is only seventy nine for the season,
number seventy nine at sixty six plays per game, but
in conference only action they are at number twenty eight
in plays, running seventy one point five plays per game.
So you have two teams in the top thirty as
far as paces and concern.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Rolf.
Speaker 1: All right, there we go, and there we go with
the Blitz squad ride right there, yes, and all group
of five three leg parlay here is Ross is going
with the over fifty one FIU and Middle Tennessee. Ralph
likes Arkansas State plus the points. I like Temple plus
the points that is the that is Conference USA, the
Sun Belt and the American for you. Right there again,
all G five, Ralph, Let's hit him with it one
more time. That promo, the Blitz exclusive promo before we uh.
Speaker 3: Blitz two five b LTZ two five no spaces only
for the three of us.
Speaker 4: It can be for the college football season, the college
football NFL combo or any package two ninety nine or more.
But we get is still active.
Speaker 3: If you don't want to commit for someone for the
whole year, so be it short term, be it long term.
Speaker 4: We've got you covered at the Blitz.
Speaker 1: Okay, there you have it, another week in the books.
Thank you everyone for checking us out here that did
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