Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast. You're home
Speaker 1: for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
Speaker 1: On your way in. Please let that subscribe button as
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Speaker 1: I am back home from vacation. I'm back in my
Speaker 1: home studio, so the audio quality should be better. But
Speaker 1: we got some big news to cover, guys. Big day,
Speaker 1: big announcement from the Trump administration. The US government is
Speaker 1: about to reopen in much more. And we see bitcoin
Speaker 1: right now trading just below one hundred and six thousand
Speaker 1: dollars on the daily chart. We're seeing a bounce and
Speaker 1: it looks just like we've seen throughout this bull market,
Speaker 1: where bitcoin went below the two hundred day moving average
Speaker 1: that's the bullmarket line in the sand, and then starts
Speaker 1: to recover. Because we know nothing good happens below that
Speaker 1: two hundred day moving average. If you are below that
Speaker 1: in a downtrend, you are in a bear market, right
Speaker 1: I've said that at nauseum, and on that same daily chart,
Speaker 1: the RSI is moving away from the over soul zone.
Speaker 1: So you have extreme fear, you have bitcoin over sold,
Speaker 1: and you have these huge narratives in the market. Now
Speaker 1: we have work to do. I'm not calling home saying
Speaker 1: this is the start of the reversal pump, because on
Speaker 1: the weekly chart the bears are stelling control, but on
Speaker 1: the higher timeframe of the monthly chart, the bulls are
Speaker 1: stealing control. So we got work to do here. Bitcoin
Speaker 1: has a lot of support levels to reclaim so that
Speaker 1: we can say, hey, this is indeed the reversal and
Speaker 1: the continuation, So please understand what I'm saying. We are
Speaker 1: seeing some positive signs, but we got work to do now.
Speaker 1: One important thing is that bitcoin has corrected just about
Speaker 1: twenty two percent, so not even as bad as we've
Speaker 1: seen throughout this bull market, where we've seen minus thirty
Speaker 1: two percent, thirty three percent and so forth. So this
Speaker 1: is nothing even though people have been so fearful. Right
Speaker 1: people been calling the top of the market, and much
Speaker 1: more so. Here analyst Michael Posinos says, this is the
Speaker 1: same as four out of the last six corrections. But
Speaker 1: the important thing is guys, Bitcoin closed the weekly very strong,
Speaker 1: So here Benjamin Cohen says Bitcoin managed to close above
Speaker 1: the fifty week SMA, so that's a key support level.
Speaker 1: Now it has to get back above that two hundred
Speaker 1: day moving average, like I said, but we are seeing
Speaker 1: positive signs here. Analyst Kevin Spence and said Bitcoin has
Speaker 1: closed it's weekly above all key levels. The macro bowl
Speaker 1: trend remains intact. So again, guys, this is just the data,
Speaker 1: not feelings, not emotions, not hopium, just the data showing
Speaker 1: that it did close above the key support levels. And
Speaker 1: like I said, we don't want to call home and
Speaker 1: say this is the reversal pump. Yet, we want to
Speaker 1: see the markets show us and give us confirmation. So
Speaker 1: Bitcoin needs to put the work in here. But we
Speaker 1: got the macro factors and the narratives. For example, the
Speaker 1: Senate reaches the deal to end the government shutdown, so
Speaker 1: it looks like the government's going to be fully open tomorrow. Now.
Speaker 1: I've been sharing these respective milestones and landmark events and
Speaker 1: narratives for a long time, right, I've been sharing it
Speaker 1: in my newsletter on the podcast. So I said, some
Speaker 1: of the key factors that show this bullmark is not
Speaker 1: over include the FED ramping down QT and starting QE
Speaker 1: and continuing ray cuts, the government reopening, plus you got
Speaker 1: the Market Structure Bill still in the Senate, and you
Speaker 1: got the all quintfs to be approved by the SEC.
Speaker 1: So with the government reopening, we're going to see the
Speaker 1: latter two get done, guys. And of course we get
Speaker 1: confirmation from Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, that
Speaker 1: they're ending QT come December first. Plus the New York
Speaker 1: Fed Governor just said on Saturday or Friday that they're
Speaker 1: going to return to QE very soon. I reported on that, right, folks.
Speaker 1: So all of these things are lighting up here very beautifully.
Speaker 1: And then you throw in President Trump says Americans will
Speaker 1: get at least two thousand dollars dividend payment, excluding high
Speaker 1: income earners. He wants to use the tariff revenue to
Speaker 1: give Americans the dividend. Now, I know this is a
Speaker 1: whole can of worms. There's a whole political debate. I
Speaker 1: understand the tariff implications and how that was already like
Speaker 1: taxing people and much. I'm not here to talk about that.
Speaker 1: I'll save that for the political podcast to handle. But
Speaker 1: the fact of the matter is, if they are going
Speaker 1: to indeed do this This is going to drive retail
Speaker 1: to come in and you know we're going to see
Speaker 1: something like what we saw in twenty twenty, where you
Speaker 1: get these stimmy checks and people are you know, investing
Speaker 1: in the markets. Now, will everybody invests in the markets.
Speaker 1: Of course not. They're actual people who need it. They
Speaker 1: need to you know, pay their bills and much more
Speaker 1: so we want to be cognizant of that, but a
Speaker 1: good amount you know, they're going to go and put
Speaker 1: it into the market. We've seen this time and time again,
Speaker 1: and this I think could spur the retail fomo because
Speaker 1: one of the things I've been saying NonStop is when
Speaker 1: have we seen the market top without true euphoria? Agreed,
Speaker 1: we didn't see euphoria. All we saw was fear. So
Speaker 1: I said, that is not right. History is not on
Speaker 1: the side of people calling the market top. So again, right,
Speaker 1: We've been looking at this market holistically. You got a
Speaker 1: lot of chart guys who don't understand macro and market fundamentals.
Speaker 1: I've been giving you that plus the charts. Right, you
Speaker 1: have to look at all of these things together, not
Speaker 1: just one. You can't have tunnel vision, so be careful
Speaker 1: with some of these chart guys, who are not telling
Speaker 1: you about global liquidity, who are not telling you about
Speaker 1: what the FED is doing with quantitative easing, because you
Speaker 1: can't just look at those things, and you can't just
Speaker 1: look at the charts. You have to look at them
Speaker 1: together to get a full view of the market, right guys.
Speaker 1: So I hope you appreciate that. So you know, we'll
Speaker 1: see Trump posted on truth Social about this now. Scott Pissent,
Speaker 1: Secretary of the Taragy he kind of backtracks some of it.
Speaker 1: But look, I think Trump sees there's a bit of
Speaker 1: a need for this politically because of what happened recently
Speaker 1: with the elections. Plus you know the Supreme Court is
Speaker 1: going to be reviewing the Terriiff city situation. So I
Speaker 1: don't know, maybe they push it back and this is
Speaker 1: the way to make up for it. I don't know, right,
Speaker 1: I'm just guessing, but I think those are plausible scenarios.
Speaker 1: So let's see. But this would add fuel to the fire.
Speaker 1: This is the cherry on top of the Sunday as
Speaker 1: you have retail FOMO in with their tariff stimmy checks
Speaker 1: if you want to call it that. Now, I like
Speaker 1: what nature Raci had to say and I kind of
Speaker 1: alluded to it earlier. Government shut down equals SPOT crypto
Speaker 1: ETF floodgates opening, So the SEC will be able to
Speaker 1: get going on these and he says in the meantime,
Speaker 1: we could see the first thirty three Act spot XRP
Speaker 1: ETF launched this week. So, like I said, the government
Speaker 1: opening allows the SEC to do their job and the
Speaker 1: Senate to get that crypto bill through. So these are
Speaker 1: major milestones with a crypto market. And like I said
Speaker 1: in the most recent podcast, I don't think the market
Speaker 1: makers and the whalers are dumb like that to skip
Speaker 1: these things which could drive massive retail FOMO and kick
Speaker 1: us into a massive rally to the blow off top, honestly, right,
Speaker 1: So that's just what I'm thinking. Look, it's not guaranteed,
Speaker 1: but I think if we think logically here, realistically, we
Speaker 1: look at all the things and all the factors that
Speaker 1: are happening, I think those are plausible scenarios. Now, Arkham,
Speaker 1: which is a crypto analytics firm, they highlighted that Trump
Speaker 1: Media and Technology Group holds over one billion dollars a bitcoin.
Speaker 1: That's pretty crazy. Over one point three billion of bitcoin
Speaker 1: as of September thirty, twenty twenty five. Incredible. So look,
Speaker 1: I know there's a whole political conversation here, but I'm
Speaker 1: just looking at it from an investment standpoint. Again, I'll
Speaker 1: save the political commentary for political podcasts, right guys. And look,
Speaker 1: you're free to share your comments in a comment section.
Speaker 1: I understand, but just note that I'm not going into
Speaker 1: these political talking points because that's not what we do here.
Speaker 1: But this right here is confirmation that I think Trump
Speaker 1: and his family they're betting big because they know what's coming. Again,
Speaker 1: you got to read between the lines here, right, So
Speaker 1: I don't think they would be holding this asset if
Speaker 1: it's about to dump and go down to the bear
Speaker 1: market bottom that some people are saying. I think they
Speaker 1: will sell as we're nearing the top. So we're gonna
Speaker 1: watch all of these things closely, now, folks. This episode
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Speaker 1: at this, folks, big news coming out the CFTC, so
Speaker 1: US regulator that may rule over digital assets, pushing towards
Speaker 1: cryptospot trading. So this is coming out from Commissioner Caroline
Speaker 1: fam Will. She's the acting Commissioner, so it says here
Speaker 1: Caroline fam the acting head of the CFTC, the agency
Speaker 1: likely to take over much of the US oversight of
Speaker 1: crypto trading, has been meeting personally with regulated exchanges to
Speaker 1: get retail spot crypto products, rolling sources say. The stand
Speaker 1: in leader of the commodities regulator is also said to
Speaker 1: be seeking to establish a dedicated trial unit in its
Speaker 1: enforcement division, which has been recently depleted amid the widespread
Speaker 1: cuts in the federal government or federal employment. Another policy
Speaker 1: priority will be the allowance of stable coins as tokenized
Speaker 1: collateral earlier next year, though it's uncertain whether FAM will
Speaker 1: have moved on by then with what sources indicate is
Speaker 1: her plan to work at Moonpay the CFTCE. You know,
Speaker 1: it's a bit thin when it comes. There's a bit
Speaker 1: of a skeleton crew running it right now. But shout
Speaker 1: out to Acting Chair Commissioner FAM because she's been doing
Speaker 1: an amazing job despite the lack of manpower the CFTC,
Speaker 1: if you want to put it that way, and we
Speaker 1: see her, you know, really spearheading a lot of crypto initiatives,
Speaker 1: and the SEC in parallel has been doing the same thing.
Speaker 1: And I think they're all trying to get this market
Speaker 1: to a certain place where more capital can come in,
Speaker 1: and of course that's very good for us who are
Speaker 1: early adopters. Now, look at this news Ledger, the hardware
Speaker 1: company is considering a New York IPO or fundraise as
Speaker 1: demand for hardware wallet climbs. So, folks, one of the
Speaker 1: factors I've been stating, why does the bull markets got over.
Speaker 1: You have many crypto companies as well as traditional tech
Speaker 1: companies looking to do IPOs. No one does an ip
Speaker 1: in a bear market, please show me right, Only a
Speaker 1: fool would do that. So these people are anticipating that
Speaker 1: the bull market continues and they are working with the
Speaker 1: big bangs and the big Wall Street firms who are
Speaker 1: doing lots of analysis on this. So they're not idiots.
Speaker 1: So again read between Alliance right, why would they be
Speaker 1: planning IPOs? WHI is crack in securitize in others looking
Speaker 1: to do to open AI right, looking to do an IPO.
Speaker 1: Come on, guys, right, this is where the chart. Guys,
Speaker 1: they get blinded by just charts. But you got to
Speaker 1: look at what's happening in the market. So this is
Speaker 1: another sign. And Ledger is a big hardware company and
Speaker 1: another crypto company looking to go public. Folks. Now, final
Speaker 1: news item, Pakistan mulls rupee backed stable coin as country
Speaker 1: sees twenty five billion dollar crypto opportunity. So we continue
Speaker 1: to get news from across the globe of countries embracing crypto,
Speaker 1: setting up the guardrails with their legislation, investing launching stable coins,
Speaker 1: trying to attract as much of the business as possible,
Speaker 1: So Pakistan is considering launching a rupee backed stable coin,
Speaker 1: as experts warned that delays in regulating digital assets could
Speaker 1: cost the country up to twenty five billion dollars in
Speaker 1: lost economic opportunities. Folks, what have I said over the years?
Speaker 1: Any country that bans cryptos writing their economic death sentence
Speaker 1: because the markets, the economies and the governments will all
Speaker 1: be running on blockchain rails. So here you go. Now
Speaker 1: the narrative is coming out. What we need to do
Speaker 1: is we're going to lose money. Right, of course, you're
Speaker 1: gonna lose out on jobs, revenue, tax revenue and all that.
Speaker 1: So speaking at these Sustainable Development Policy Institute conference on Friday,
Speaker 1: Pakistan Banks Association presidents Afar Masoud said the nation could
Speaker 1: unlock twenty to twenty five billion dollar in crypto related growth,
Speaker 1: according to a report by local news outlet Daily Times.
Speaker 1: Masoud pointed out that booming global stable coin market, adding
Speaker 1: that Pakistan is seriously considering a rupee backed stable coin
Speaker 1: and that a central bank digital currency CBDC could improve
Speaker 1: financial access while reducing remittance costs. Folks, I hope you
Speaker 1: see the direction the puck is heading in here, and
Speaker 1: we want to skate to that direction, right, So you
Speaker 1: make sure you're looking at this market from a macro perspective.
Speaker 1: There's money to be made here, but you got to
Speaker 1: be patient. It's a rollercoaster ride because markets are volatile,
Speaker 1: and crypto because it's still very young, it's extremely volatile.
Speaker 1: But that's where the opportunity lies because nothing moves like this.
Speaker 1: Nothing gives you the swing up, and look you got
Speaker 1: the swing down, which is pretty bad. But this is
Speaker 1: where we are going to follow it closely, look at
Speaker 1: the different signals and identify the top zone so we
Speaker 1: can start taking our profits. And when the bear market
Speaker 1: rolls around and it's bloody out there and people are
Speaker 1: calling crypto scam again, I'll be backing up the truck
Speaker 1: and hopefully you'll be here with me doing the same thing,
Speaker 1: and we're going to rinse and repeat for the next
Speaker 1: bull cycle. So again, this bull market's not over. Based
Speaker 1: on the data, the facts, and all the things I've
Speaker 1: shared so far, and much more I've often covered in
Speaker 1: d Tail in my newsletter, there's much more to this,
Speaker 1: and we want to make sure we're checking our emotions
Speaker 1: at the door. We're not operating by emotions because you
Speaker 1: will get wrecked if you're approaching the market that way.
Speaker 1: You get to look at the data and you got
Speaker 1: to exercise a lot of patients, right, folks. So again,
Speaker 1: it's not over, and I think we'd still out you know,
Speaker 1: a final fifth wave macro fifth wave if you call
Speaker 1: it that, you know from an Elliott wave standpoint, before
Speaker 1: this market tops out. And look, not just the crypto market,
Speaker 1: but the stock market as well, because all of these
Speaker 1: assets are following global liquidity. What have we seen over
Speaker 1: the past two three years. Crypto hitting new highs, stock
Speaker 1: market hitting new highs, real estate and precious metals. Right,
Speaker 1: gold was going nuts. You guys saw the parabolic blow
Speaker 1: off top. If you look, it might be a local top,
Speaker 1: but that's sure, it looked like a parabolic blow off top.
Speaker 1: So let's see. Let's see what happens with gold. And
Speaker 1: you know, we don't have a crystal ball, but we're
Speaker 1: going to look at the data and continue to study
Speaker 1: this closely. Folks. That's the news. Let me know what
Speaker 1: you think. Leave your thoughts and comments below, hit the
Speaker 1: thumbs up button, hit the subscribe button. If you haven't
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Speaker 1: I will be putting out a write up tomorrow. Link
Speaker 1: will be in the description. Check out my book on
Speaker 1: Amazon and my course at Mycrypto course dot com. This
Speaker 1: is a comprehensive course that teaches you everything you need
Speaker 1: to know about crypto. So, folks, thank you so much
Speaker 1: for tuning in. I appreciate you all and I'll talk
Speaker 1: to you all later.