WEBVTT 1 00:00:20.440 --> 00:00:27.879 Though radical fundamental principles of freedom, national self interest, and 2 00:00:28.120 --> 00:00:39.079 individual rights. This is the Uran Brook Show. All right, everybody, 3 00:00:39.079 --> 00:00:43.000 welk up here on book show on this uh Friday 4 00:00:43.560 --> 00:00:48.560 and Sember twenty of the had a fantastic week and 5 00:00:48.560 --> 00:00:52.399 you're looking forward to a I don't know, relaxing weekend. 6 00:00:52.479 --> 00:00:55.640 Productive weekend, however you want to be the way. Both 7 00:00:55.719 --> 00:00:58.479 both are good. Relaxing is good if you've been super productive. 8 00:00:58.600 --> 00:01:00.880 Productive is good if you still need to get some 9 00:01:00.960 --> 00:01:05.560 productivity in. We will be doing a show I think 10 00:01:05.560 --> 00:01:08.439 tomorrow and a show in Hebrew on Sunday. So here 11 00:01:08.480 --> 00:01:11.079 in the Ivon Book Show we continue to plug along. 12 00:01:11.599 --> 00:01:17.480 There's no rest for the rest of the year. Jennifer's 13 00:01:17.480 --> 00:01:26.040 on vacation until the second. I'm moderately jealous. And yeah, 14 00:01:26.120 --> 00:01:28.040 So today we're going to talk about the government shutdown 15 00:01:28.239 --> 00:01:33.000 that might happen or might not happen. Who knows, right, 16 00:01:33.280 --> 00:01:35.920 I mean Twitter knows maybe Twitter nos, Twitter is insane 17 00:01:37.000 --> 00:01:43.640 and Twitter knows all. We're talking about motivates, motivates. You 18 00:01:43.920 --> 00:01:46.599 guys love talking about motivates. Why do they spike in 19 00:01:46.640 --> 00:01:51.000 twenty twenty? What caused the spike? Now, there's a study 20 00:01:51.040 --> 00:01:55.159 which looks at detail kind of weekly daily motivates and 21 00:01:55.760 --> 00:02:02.200 has I think interesting answers as to what caused the spike. Actually, 22 00:02:03.239 --> 00:02:05.159 what caused the spike is exactly what I said caused 23 00:02:05.159 --> 00:02:08.599 the spike way back in twenty twenty twenty one, so 24 00:02:09.719 --> 00:02:14.240 I'm not surprised. But it's not the typical story that 25 00:02:14.319 --> 00:02:18.840 you hear out there. Some good news. Life expectancy in 26 00:02:18.879 --> 00:02:23.280 the United States is going is improving slowly, not back 27 00:02:23.319 --> 00:02:29.680 to pre COVID levels, but improving slowly, shockingly. We'll talk 28 00:02:29.680 --> 00:02:34.840 about why a little bit, and then we'll talk a 29 00:02:34.840 --> 00:02:37.680 little bit about Ukraine. A bunch of news about Ukraine, 30 00:02:38.719 --> 00:02:42.960 trumpet Ukraine, and finally some good news on the nuclear 31 00:02:43.039 --> 00:02:46.360 power front. More good news on the Nuclear Power Fund. 32 00:02:46.360 --> 00:02:49.120 This seems to be good news coming constantly on the 33 00:02:49.199 --> 00:02:54.120 nuclear power front. All right, Michael is off the Hell 34 00:02:54.159 --> 00:02:56.800 of Us out asking questions, So this is great. You 35 00:02:56.960 --> 00:02:59.560 two can join Michael and asking questions. That's what the 36 00:02:59.560 --> 00:03:01.960 super Chat it's foot So please a feel fee to 37 00:03:02.039 --> 00:03:04.879 jump in ask questions. That way you get to shape 38 00:03:04.879 --> 00:03:07.199 the show. I get to answer your question. Instead of 39 00:03:07.199 --> 00:03:08.800 talking about what I want to talk about, I get 40 00:03:08.800 --> 00:03:14.319 to talk about what you want to talk about action. 41 00:03:14.520 --> 00:03:18.360 Jackson says, mumbo rap wasn't the cause. How do you 42 00:03:18.439 --> 00:03:20.879 know it wasn't the cause? Maybe it was. I haven't 43 00:03:20.879 --> 00:03:23.159 told you what the cause is. I don't even know 44 00:03:23.199 --> 00:03:25.599 what mumbo rap is. Is this such a thing as 45 00:03:25.639 --> 00:03:29.879 mumbo rap was? Action Jackson just making this shit up. 46 00:03:30.319 --> 00:03:38.960 I think he's making it up. So we kind of 47 00:03:38.960 --> 00:03:45.120 went through the whole evolution of this budget Continuing Resolution thing. 48 00:03:46.439 --> 00:03:52.120 We went through the whole thing yesterday. The drama just continues, 49 00:03:52.159 --> 00:03:53.879 as you know. I think it was breaking news during 50 00:03:53.879 --> 00:03:57.919 the show yesterday that the continued Resolution was not approved. 51 00:03:57.960 --> 00:04:00.960 It was voted down basically becau there only two Democrats 52 00:04:01.039 --> 00:04:05.240 voted for it and thirty something Republicans voted against it, 53 00:04:05.840 --> 00:04:12.599 including Chip Roy from the great tech state of Texas. 54 00:04:13.319 --> 00:04:17.839 And Roy basically, you know, gave a great reason why. 55 00:04:18.439 --> 00:04:21.279 He said, he's just not voting for anything that is 56 00:04:21.319 --> 00:04:24.959 going to increase the president's ability to run deficits and 57 00:04:25.040 --> 00:04:29.480 to increase spending. He is fine with raising the debt limit, 58 00:04:29.839 --> 00:04:32.360 raising the borrowing limit that the United States can get 59 00:04:32.360 --> 00:04:36.839 into if at the same time there's a real cut 60 00:04:36.879 --> 00:04:46.800 in spending, real cut in spending. Now it appears so 61 00:04:47.639 --> 00:04:50.439 that went down. If you remember, that was a continuing 62 00:04:50.480 --> 00:05:01.319 resolution plus the disaster relief, plus the farmers, but increasing 63 00:05:01.399 --> 00:05:07.600 the death ceiling basically by four trillion. Right, So today 64 00:05:07.800 --> 00:05:12.480 it appears the Speaker Johnson is going to ignore Donald Trump. 65 00:05:14.839 --> 00:05:17.319 I assume Donald Trump is agreed to this to him, 66 00:05:17.360 --> 00:05:20.519 ignoring him, and is going to try to pass what's 67 00:05:20.560 --> 00:05:26.079 called a clean continued resolution. Right, It's still going to 68 00:05:26.120 --> 00:05:31.560 not be really clean in the sense that it would 69 00:05:31.639 --> 00:05:34.360 still it's still going to have the disaster relief and 70 00:05:34.399 --> 00:05:38.040 the farmer's stuff, but it's not going to have the 71 00:05:38.160 --> 00:05:44.040 increase in four trillion of US borrowing. And we'll see 72 00:05:44.040 --> 00:05:48.319 if that passes. Just A Mash writes, the most of 73 00:05:48.399 --> 00:05:53.079 all remarkable thing is that a clean continuing resolution without 74 00:05:53.120 --> 00:05:57.399 a death ceiling suspension is the best bill they propose 75 00:05:57.680 --> 00:06:02.560 by far, yet it was the third option. Republican leaders 76 00:06:02.600 --> 00:06:07.240 are completely incompetent when it comes to strategy. And then 77 00:06:07.240 --> 00:06:11.639 he goes on to say, to be clear, I'd still 78 00:06:11.759 --> 00:06:15.759 vote no. I don't believe Congress should be spending at 79 00:06:15.759 --> 00:06:20.560 these levels under any circumstances. But this proposal does the 80 00:06:20.720 --> 00:06:26.040 least harm and puts Republicans in the strongest position. So 81 00:06:28.439 --> 00:06:34.439 this is this might pass. All day today, I've been 82 00:06:34.480 --> 00:06:40.680 hearing JD Vance and their lone Mosque basically say it's 83 00:06:40.720 --> 00:06:44.680 all Democrats fault. It's all Democrats fault. They could have 84 00:06:44.759 --> 00:06:46.959 voted for it yesterday, they didn't vote for it. We're 85 00:06:46.959 --> 00:06:48.879 gonna shut down the government and we're gonna blame it 86 00:06:48.920 --> 00:06:56.279 on Democrats. I don't think that worked. I don't think 87 00:06:56.279 --> 00:06:59.720 it resonated. So they went back and said, okay, Republican 88 00:07:00.000 --> 00:07:03.519 and give you your so called clean continued resolution. You 89 00:07:03.519 --> 00:07:07.560 can still spend money like there's no tomorrow. You're still 90 00:07:07.759 --> 00:07:10.639 not gonna cut gumt spending like Elon Musk and Vivic 91 00:07:10.680 --> 00:07:13.600 claim they want to do. But we're going to keep 92 00:07:13.600 --> 00:07:16.240 the gumment open because God forbid, we shut it down 93 00:07:16.639 --> 00:07:19.519 and the voters might blame us. And Donald Trump doesn't 94 00:07:19.519 --> 00:07:22.319 want to go into office with a shutdown government. Donald 95 00:07:22.319 --> 00:07:24.199 Trump doesn't actually want to go in spite of the 96 00:07:24.279 --> 00:07:28.199 fact that again overnight, Donald Trump was saying, I don't 97 00:07:28.199 --> 00:07:31.839 care shut down the government. It's on Biden. It's always 98 00:07:31.839 --> 00:07:34.759 the president who gets blamed for these things. Blame Biden, 99 00:07:34.839 --> 00:07:38.160 don't blame me, even though it is Donald Trump's fault 100 00:07:38.480 --> 00:07:41.519 because Republicans and Democrats whore going to vote for continued 101 00:07:41.560 --> 00:07:44.079 resolution bill on Wednesday, they would have not shut down 102 00:07:44.120 --> 00:07:50.000 the government anyway. This saga goes on and on, And 103 00:07:51.040 --> 00:07:56.120 here's what maybe Ellen Musk and Vivic and the rest 104 00:07:56.120 --> 00:07:59.480 of the DOGE can learn from this. Maybe they can 105 00:07:59.560 --> 00:08:07.160 learn from this. Well, they can't reopen it on January third, 106 00:08:07.639 --> 00:08:10.759 because they will have about the same majority in the 107 00:08:10.759 --> 00:08:14.480 House as they have now. And it's that lack of 108 00:08:14.600 --> 00:08:20.240 unanimity among Republicans in ours representatives that prevented them from 109 00:08:20.439 --> 00:08:25.279 passing the continuing resolution yesterday. Thirty eight Republicans refused to 110 00:08:25.360 --> 00:08:29.480 raise the debt limit, and they only have a majority 111 00:08:29.519 --> 00:08:32.559 of like I think, in the new Congress, five, so 112 00:08:34.440 --> 00:08:37.639 it doesn't help them. It's didn't even make it to 113 00:08:37.679 --> 00:08:40.399 the Senate, where the Democrats have a majority. It can't 114 00:08:40.399 --> 00:08:42.720 even make it out of the House because the Republicans 115 00:08:42.759 --> 00:08:51.200 don't agree. And you still have some Republicans, honest Republicans 116 00:08:51.679 --> 00:08:55.879 who actually care about government spending. A few, not many, 117 00:08:55.960 --> 00:09:00.759 a few, but enough to sink a bill that involves 118 00:09:00.840 --> 00:09:07.279 dramatically increasing gument spinning. So we will see, we will see. 119 00:09:07.320 --> 00:09:10.200 It's going to be really interesting dynamics because Trump is 120 00:09:10.240 --> 00:09:13.399 going to try to increase goverment spending, must scan to 121 00:09:13.559 --> 00:09:15.879 try to decrease gouverment spinning, but they have no power, 122 00:09:16.840 --> 00:09:19.240 and Republicans, some of them, are going to try to 123 00:09:19.240 --> 00:09:22.679 decrease and there's going to be push and pull and 124 00:09:22.720 --> 00:09:30.000 tug and pull and push. I think one reason you know, 125 00:09:30.000 --> 00:09:31.679 people like justin a mash a few and a few 126 00:09:31.720 --> 00:09:35.679 of them in Congress is because they can't have an 127 00:09:35.720 --> 00:09:40.279 impact because Donald Trump is a spender. He is not 128 00:09:40.440 --> 00:09:43.559 about cutting gum and spending. He's not about drinking gument 129 00:09:44.279 --> 00:09:48.600 and the chip Roys of the world in the House 130 00:09:48.600 --> 00:09:50.639 are going to have a really, really hard time with 131 00:09:50.720 --> 00:10:00.360 Donald Trump. Anyway. I don't know if the Continued Solution 132 00:10:00.399 --> 00:10:03.639 will pass today. There's a chance it will, right there's 133 00:10:03.679 --> 00:10:12.919 a chance it will. But one of the proposals being 134 00:10:12.919 --> 00:10:18.919 made right now is that they increase the one point 135 00:10:18.919 --> 00:10:22.240 five trillion the debt limit by one point five trillion, 136 00:10:22.360 --> 00:10:25.600 so the government can borrow one point five trillion additional dollars. 137 00:10:25.919 --> 00:10:29.120 I mean, notice, we've gone from billions to trillions, just 138 00:10:29.200 --> 00:10:34.639 like that, billions to trillions. Trump Us love that, and 139 00:10:34.960 --> 00:10:38.440 at the same time, Congress will commit to cutting spending 140 00:10:38.799 --> 00:10:42.000 over ten years, a two and a half trillion dollars, 141 00:10:43.159 --> 00:10:48.720 a promise that is worth exactly zilch nothing. It will 142 00:10:48.759 --> 00:10:54.159 never happen. So that's one of one of the negotiations 143 00:10:54.279 --> 00:10:57.120 that are going on. Note all the negotiations are going 144 00:10:57.159 --> 00:11:04.399 on between Republicans Democrats out so it's all between Republicans, 145 00:11:04.639 --> 00:11:08.320 and they can't they can't agree. They can't agree because 146 00:11:08.399 --> 00:11:12.039 Trump is in the middle of this. Trump doesn't want. 147 00:11:12.759 --> 00:11:17.080 Trump is insisting on an increase in the debt limit, 148 00:11:17.120 --> 00:11:21.360 and he's basically saying he's gonna he's gonna get people 149 00:11:21.360 --> 00:11:27.960 to you know, primary any representative who goes against his wishes. 150 00:11:29.039 --> 00:11:31.639 By the way, what happens if the government is shut down, Well, 151 00:11:31.679 --> 00:11:36.240 not much, not much, right, and the deal has to 152 00:11:36.240 --> 00:11:38.480 be struck by midnight tonight and passed in the House 153 00:11:38.559 --> 00:11:42.559 and the Senate and signed by Biden. So we're probably 154 00:11:42.600 --> 00:11:45.559 looking for a few days of shutdown. So first, what 155 00:11:45.600 --> 00:11:48.879 are called the essential workers, And pretty much almost all 156 00:11:48.919 --> 00:11:54.480 of the government is considered essential. I mean, if it 157 00:11:54.519 --> 00:11:57.519 wasn't essential, what's it doing in the government. So basically 158 00:11:57.559 --> 00:12:03.879 the government thinks everything it does is essential. So essential 159 00:12:03.960 --> 00:12:07.559 workers continue as normal. They work as normal, they just 160 00:12:07.559 --> 00:12:13.919 don't get paid. Talk about indeed indentured servitude. They get 161 00:12:13.919 --> 00:12:16.399 paid afterwards, they get it in arrears, so we don't 162 00:12:16.399 --> 00:12:20.879 save any money that way. Well, government employees that are 163 00:12:20.960 --> 00:12:26.399 deemed non essential are temporarily put on unpaid leave, but 164 00:12:26.480 --> 00:12:30.600 typically what happens when they go back is Congress signs 165 00:12:30.600 --> 00:12:32.879 a bill that pays them back leave, so they don't 166 00:12:32.919 --> 00:12:35.399 lose anything. She don't save any money when they going 167 00:12:35.480 --> 00:12:38.879 to shut down, which is kind of sad. I mean, 168 00:12:39.159 --> 00:12:41.200 it would be great if we could. If we could, 169 00:12:41.919 --> 00:12:46.480 I'd like essential workers to stay home. So things like 170 00:12:46.679 --> 00:12:55.320 food assistant programs, federally funded preschool and UH student loan issuance, 171 00:12:55.960 --> 00:13:01.879 food inspections, and national parks are closed. They're not essential. 172 00:13:02.600 --> 00:13:05.120 What is essential it's border protection. We don't want those 173 00:13:05.120 --> 00:13:10.000 immigrants taking advantage of Republicans shutting down the government. That 174 00:13:10.039 --> 00:13:16.240 would be bad. In hospital, medical care is essential, law enforcement, 175 00:13:16.360 --> 00:13:22.000 air traffic control is essential, so security, Medicaid checks are essential. 176 00:13:22.120 --> 00:13:28.279 They keep going out, but benefit verification and caught insurances stop. 177 00:13:29.440 --> 00:13:32.799 So you can see there's some random process by which 178 00:13:34.240 --> 00:13:40.120 I think government has decided. Well, here's the principle government 179 00:13:40.120 --> 00:13:43.000 activities that if they stop pissed off a lot of people. 180 00:13:43.720 --> 00:13:49.039 Those are essential government services have stopped. Eh, maybe if 181 00:13:49.039 --> 00:13:51.200 you poor people would notice, but nobody else would notice. 182 00:13:52.720 --> 00:13:56.559 They're good to go. They can be shut down. That 183 00:13:56.639 --> 00:13:59.559 I think is the criteria. I don't think there's anything 184 00:13:59.600 --> 00:14:03.639 beyond that. So it does look like the government will 185 00:14:03.679 --> 00:14:07.919 shut down at least for a while. If you remember, 186 00:14:08.080 --> 00:14:14.039 in twenty nineteen, the government will shut down for thirty 187 00:14:14.080 --> 00:14:19.759 six days. Indeed, when Trump was president, there were three 188 00:14:19.840 --> 00:14:26.279 government shutdowns and the one in January twenty nineteen was 189 00:14:26.279 --> 00:14:32.360 the longest, thirty six days, and you know, the world continued. 190 00:14:33.399 --> 00:14:36.480 We were told at the time, this is horrible, awful, 191 00:14:36.519 --> 00:14:40.000 that it will reduce GDP by huge amounts, that we 192 00:14:40.039 --> 00:14:43.200 will all lose money, that we will things will be awful, 193 00:14:43.519 --> 00:14:50.679 that economic activity will be reduced. And you know, Congressional 194 00:14:50.720 --> 00:14:53.840 Budget Office estimated that the long one, the thirty six 195 00:14:53.960 --> 00:15:01.039 day reduced economic output by eleven billion. That was regained, 196 00:15:01.600 --> 00:15:04.720 like eight of that was regained. They claimed three billion 197 00:15:04.840 --> 00:15:10.759 was lost. Three billion in an economy of fifteen trillion. 198 00:15:11.080 --> 00:15:13.480 Not a big deal, not a lot of money. And 199 00:15:13.960 --> 00:15:16.679 I don't believe the Congressional Budget Office has are very good. 200 00:15:17.120 --> 00:15:20.759 I mean, just think of all the business like restaurants 201 00:15:20.799 --> 00:15:22.320 are going to do because the food inspector is not 202 00:15:22.360 --> 00:15:25.399 going to be there. That is three billion just there. 203 00:15:25.440 --> 00:15:34.919 Probably all right, they have it, maybe while we speak. 204 00:15:35.039 --> 00:15:38.559 While we're talking, maybe the next hour or so House 205 00:15:38.600 --> 00:15:44.600 of Representatives will decide what it's doing and so on. Right, 206 00:15:47.200 --> 00:15:53.039 and Elizabeth Warner's already saying that the two point five 207 00:15:53.080 --> 00:15:56.360 trillion that Republicans want to cut over ten years is 208 00:15:56.440 --> 00:16:01.000 going to mean that benefits, healthcare benefits for veterans are 209 00:16:01.000 --> 00:16:03.919 going to be cut, that cut. So she is a 210 00:16:03.960 --> 00:16:09.440 master at this and basically immediately going for the jugular right, 211 00:16:09.519 --> 00:16:13.039 immediately going for what she knows the voters care about 212 00:16:13.480 --> 00:16:17.720 healthcare benefits to the old and veterans. That's what people 213 00:16:17.759 --> 00:16:30.840 care about. Yeah. I don't see anything else happening right now, yep, 214 00:16:31.559 --> 00:16:37.720 but you know things will change constantly. Constantly. Elan is 215 00:16:37.840 --> 00:16:42.320 fighting with their liftist because the leftist saying because of Milan, 216 00:16:43.159 --> 00:16:45.240 this amount of money was cut from the bill because 217 00:16:45.240 --> 00:16:48.879 of Ilan, and his response is Democrats are lying again 218 00:16:51.480 --> 00:16:57.120 in this case that actually not you know, he basically 219 00:16:57.200 --> 00:16:59.600 killed that bill that had all this funding in its 220 00:17:00.240 --> 00:17:09.799 true he should be proud of it. All right, let's 221 00:17:09.839 --> 00:17:26.519 see murderates and lockdowns. So in twenty twenty, moderates spiked 222 00:17:26.559 --> 00:17:35.079 by a lot, you know, and people blame a lot 223 00:17:35.079 --> 00:17:39.680 of different things, you know, basically, homicides In the average 224 00:17:39.759 --> 00:17:44.920 UIs city homicides went up by close to thirty percent. 225 00:17:45.319 --> 00:17:52.119 Thirty percent, that's a huge number. Across the nation, twenty 226 00:17:52.119 --> 00:17:55.640 four thousand people were killed compared about nineteen thousand the 227 00:17:55.680 --> 00:18:00.319 year before. That's a huge increase five thousand additional deaths. 228 00:18:01.599 --> 00:18:04.160 And the question has been what caused it. A lot 229 00:18:04.200 --> 00:18:08.839 of commentators said at the time, and sense of blame 230 00:18:08.960 --> 00:18:14.119 basically defund the police initiatives, that the rollback of police 231 00:18:14.200 --> 00:18:21.599 enforcement after the Floyd George Floyd's death, with the idea 232 00:18:21.640 --> 00:18:27.160 that police were afraid to go into the streets. Police 233 00:18:27.160 --> 00:18:31.000 departments basically told police to back off. There was generally 234 00:18:31.359 --> 00:18:36.720 less policing being done. And so the explanation for the 235 00:18:36.799 --> 00:18:42.759 increase has been to a loge extent lack of policing 236 00:18:43.400 --> 00:18:48.480 because of the you know, BLM riots and the George 237 00:18:48.480 --> 00:18:53.200 Floyd prosecution of the policeman. After the George George Floyd 238 00:18:53.400 --> 00:18:54.839 death and all of that. 239 00:18:55.079 --> 00:18:59.799 So so now there's an analysis that actually looks basically 240 00:18:59.759 --> 00:19:04.359 a day to day basis from January one all the 241 00:19:04.359 --> 00:19:08.000 way to December thirty first of twenty twenty to c. 242 00:19:10.160 --> 00:19:15.400 What exactly happened. And the reality is that the largest increase, 243 00:19:16.680 --> 00:19:24.599 the largest increase of in deaths in motor rates actually 244 00:19:24.599 --> 00:19:30.839 happened before George Floyd was killed. It happened between you know, 245 00:19:30.920 --> 00:19:37.000 it happened starting mid April and really continued at a 246 00:19:37.079 --> 00:19:43.759 high rate through the George Floyd BLM riots until late June. 247 00:19:44.400 --> 00:19:46.960 Then it declined a little bit and then stayed steady 248 00:19:47.079 --> 00:19:50.519 but high, steady but high through the rest of the year, 249 00:19:51.720 --> 00:19:55.799 and then of course by twenty twenty two and twenty 250 00:19:55.839 --> 00:19:58.960 twenty three and twenty twenty four from the data, we 251 00:19:59.039 --> 00:20:05.920 have declined from there pretty dramatically. So why did it 252 00:20:06.000 --> 00:20:13.440 increase before Floyd? Well, basically the reason is it's pretty 253 00:20:13.480 --> 00:20:18.559 clear that the increase was lockdowns. Lockdowns are what caused 254 00:20:18.599 --> 00:20:24.799 the increase in crime. People were held up at home, 255 00:20:25.599 --> 00:20:29.279 they didn't have work to go to, they couldn't you know, 256 00:20:30.000 --> 00:20:35.240 they couldn't go out and easily meet with friends and 257 00:20:35.319 --> 00:20:44.640 hang out, and the frustration, the angst, you know, the 258 00:20:44.640 --> 00:20:54.680 the unhappiness that this all caused, right, is what led 259 00:20:54.720 --> 00:21:04.559 to the murders. They basically go straight up starting with 260 00:21:04.680 --> 00:21:07.680 the major lockdowns in major cities around the United States. 261 00:21:08.359 --> 00:21:11.559 So there's no question the demodelizing and defunding the police 262 00:21:12.160 --> 00:21:14.759 probably sustain these rates. The fact that police were not 263 00:21:14.920 --> 00:21:18.279 out in the streets probably sustained those rates for the 264 00:21:18.319 --> 00:21:23.319 rest of the year. But the fundamental sin was the lockdowns. 265 00:21:25.359 --> 00:21:31.680 When you keep young men at home, or at least 266 00:21:31.799 --> 00:21:41.720 pretend to keep them at home, then if they're not busy, 267 00:21:41.960 --> 00:21:47.799 the not work, not at school, they get bored and 268 00:21:47.880 --> 00:21:57.079 they have to they their energy gets expressed in gang 269 00:21:57.279 --> 00:22:01.039 like activities. And then of course the riots and George 270 00:22:01.039 --> 00:22:04.680 Floyd kind of almost legitimized the violence. It was almost 271 00:22:04.960 --> 00:22:08.640 okay to go boom stuff down and to harass people 272 00:22:09.240 --> 00:22:18.160 and including to shoot them. So it was lockdowns. So 273 00:22:18.319 --> 00:22:23.559 add that to, uh, to the reasons many reasons why, uh, 274 00:22:23.720 --> 00:22:30.839 you know, lockdowns, except for very stimputer times in emergency situations, 275 00:22:32.000 --> 00:22:39.400 are always going to be a disaster. Yep, lockdowns explain it. 276 00:22:43.759 --> 00:22:46.640 And uh so you if you if you're interested in 277 00:22:46.759 --> 00:22:49.640 the data, if you're interested to see the relationship between 278 00:22:49.880 --> 00:22:55.079 different neighborhoods or different different cities and what happened and 279 00:22:55.119 --> 00:22:57.200 the increase in violence of different cities and when it 280 00:22:57.279 --> 00:23:01.160 started and how to relate to the lockdowns. There is 281 00:23:01.920 --> 00:23:05.400 the report that came out was issued by the Bookings Institute, 282 00:23:06.559 --> 00:23:14.920 and the Bookings Institute you can find you know, you 283 00:23:14.960 --> 00:23:24.599 can find this this kind of data data and they 284 00:23:24.799 --> 00:23:27.039 do a pretty thorough job. I mean they really analyze 285 00:23:27.400 --> 00:23:33.000 the data. They look at examples from before twenty twenty, 286 00:23:33.039 --> 00:23:38.920 so they look at other examples of murder spikes to 287 00:23:38.960 --> 00:23:44.799 see what actually what actually happened. So, for example, Baton 288 00:23:44.880 --> 00:23:48.559 Rouge saw significant spike and murders in two thousand and 289 00:23:48.680 --> 00:23:53.240 five as it absorbed thousands of displaced students from low 290 00:23:53.240 --> 00:23:56.440 performing schools in New Orleans. After how it came Katrina, 291 00:23:58.200 --> 00:24:03.759 and again young people not busy, not really doing anything, 292 00:24:04.400 --> 00:24:10.079 just hanging around unemployed, and what you get is increasing crime. 293 00:24:18.200 --> 00:24:20.400 And by the way that those motiv rates in bat 294 00:24:20.440 --> 00:24:23.000 moves stayed very high for a long time after that, 295 00:24:23.079 --> 00:24:25.599 as people stayed in bat moves and didn't go back 296 00:24:25.680 --> 00:24:29.119 to their homes. And then the same thing happened in 297 00:24:29.160 --> 00:24:32.519 twenty sixteen when a massive flood struck bad Moge in 298 00:24:32.599 --> 00:24:38.359 August of twenty sixteen, damaged fifty thousand homes, pushing large 299 00:24:38.400 --> 00:24:42.480 numbers of teens out of school. Thousands of families became homeless, 300 00:24:42.960 --> 00:24:48.279 and local schools closed. When he closed schools. When you 301 00:24:48.319 --> 00:24:57.240 close employment opportunities, crime spikes. Crime spikes, and they stay 302 00:24:57.319 --> 00:25:00.119 high for a while. Afterwards, they don't just spike can 303 00:25:00.200 --> 00:25:03.519 go back down. They go hop up and they stay 304 00:25:03.599 --> 00:25:07.079 up all right. So I encourage you if you're interested 305 00:25:07.160 --> 00:25:10.960 in these kind of stuff, the Bookings Institute. Just look 306 00:25:11.039 --> 00:25:15.720 up Lockdowns and Murder Bookings Institute and you can find 307 00:25:15.759 --> 00:25:19.920 a report. It's available online, really interesting and really really detailed. 308 00:25:21.519 --> 00:25:24.920 Up Just I'll add to this one. Well, now we've 309 00:25:24.920 --> 00:25:28.400 got to set a topic. Life expectancy on the good 310 00:25:28.440 --> 00:25:33.880 news side. Good news, life expectancy in the United States 311 00:25:34.039 --> 00:25:37.920 is actually going up, or you could say, your deaths 312 00:25:38.079 --> 00:25:46.000 are actually going down. The one cause of this, surprisingly, 313 00:25:47.640 --> 00:25:52.680 where is this? One cause of this is the fact 314 00:25:52.680 --> 00:25:57.640 that opioid deaths are going down quite a bit in 315 00:25:58.279 --> 00:26:02.599 quite dramatic fashion. You seeing fentanyl deaths and deaths from 316 00:26:02.640 --> 00:26:07.920 other drugs going down. Maybe people have gotten onto the 317 00:26:08.039 --> 00:26:10.640 fentanyl will kill you kind of stuff. But if you 318 00:26:10.680 --> 00:26:15.559 look at overdoses from other substances, even cocaine and heroin, 319 00:26:15.960 --> 00:26:18.279 which were never very high, but they have come down. 320 00:26:20.359 --> 00:26:25.160 But psychostimulants, which have high levels of death from overdose 321 00:26:25.279 --> 00:26:29.160 have come down, and of course fentanyl and synthetic opioids 322 00:26:30.519 --> 00:26:35.440 over those deaths have come down. So deaths generally from 323 00:26:35.519 --> 00:26:40.960 opioids have come down. Hot to know exactly why, hought 324 00:26:40.960 --> 00:26:47.279 to know exactly why again they spiked when they spiked. 325 00:26:47.799 --> 00:26:53.319 Really the spike starts in twenty twenty, so I don't know. Lockdowns. 326 00:26:54.759 --> 00:26:58.480 You get a huge spike in lockdowns, they stay up 327 00:26:58.519 --> 00:27:03.160 there through twenty twenty two into twenty twenty three, and 328 00:27:03.200 --> 00:27:05.640 then they start going down in twenty three and twenty four. 329 00:27:06.480 --> 00:27:10.759 So add to the cost of lockdowns not only motivates 330 00:27:10.759 --> 00:27:13.920 going up, crime rates generally going up, but also over 331 00:27:13.960 --> 00:27:20.000 those deaths going up significantly. COVID and the lockdowns that 332 00:27:20.000 --> 00:27:25.680 resulted from COVID were, as Andrews says, at depressing time. 333 00:27:26.559 --> 00:27:30.119 But I think the response to it and the doubled up, 334 00:27:30.240 --> 00:27:34.519 tripled up, quadrupled up, the level of depression was it 335 00:27:34.519 --> 00:27:42.799 was completely unnecessary. So good news. It's finally coming down. 336 00:27:42.960 --> 00:27:46.799 It's not down the levels it was in twenty eighteen, 337 00:27:47.799 --> 00:27:51.599 but it's it is coming down quite a bit from 338 00:27:51.640 --> 00:27:56.240 those levels. By the way, it could very well be 339 00:27:56.400 --> 00:28:00.559 that part of the general malay that people well during 340 00:28:00.599 --> 00:28:04.240 the Biden years has to do with these kind of 341 00:28:04.279 --> 00:28:08.440 phenomenas Motier rates up, you know, over those rates up, 342 00:28:09.240 --> 00:28:17.160 depression up, and all as a lagging consequence of lockdowns. 343 00:28:17.759 --> 00:28:22.799 They were started under Trump and continued forever under Biden. 344 00:28:23.640 --> 00:28:27.240 A lot of the turbulence politically that we have felt 345 00:28:28.400 --> 00:28:33.920 is very could very well be a consequence of COVID 346 00:28:34.000 --> 00:28:37.079 and the response to it. Even the BLM riots. You 347 00:28:37.119 --> 00:28:44.160 know what, do we have had riots like that? If 348 00:28:44.200 --> 00:28:46.519 we did, people were not locked up, if people were 349 00:28:46.519 --> 00:28:51.039 not already unbelievably frustrated by what was going on in 350 00:28:51.079 --> 00:29:02.720 the world around them. Some other reasons that that life 351 00:29:02.720 --> 00:29:06.599 expectancy is going up has to do with the fact 352 00:29:06.680 --> 00:29:13.920 that deaths from other causes is also you know, improving, 353 00:29:14.440 --> 00:29:17.920 or there are fewer deaths from other causes, for example, 354 00:29:17.920 --> 00:29:23.480 heart disease fewer deaths. Some heart disease had a list here, 355 00:29:23.519 --> 00:29:28.400 but the list is list is gone. Death Rates are 356 00:29:28.400 --> 00:29:32.279 declining across all racial and ethnic groups in both men 357 00:29:32.319 --> 00:29:38.440 and women twenty twenty four suggests, I mean, preliminary date 358 00:29:38.480 --> 00:29:41.640 from twenty twenty four suggests that the trend continues. That is, 359 00:29:41.680 --> 00:29:44.200 a life expectancy went up in twenty two three, will 360 00:29:44.240 --> 00:29:47.160 go up even more in twenty twenty four. It's still 361 00:29:47.200 --> 00:29:50.119 not returned to the pre COVID levels, but it's significantly 362 00:29:50.200 --> 00:29:54.000 higher than it was at the bottom of this. So 363 00:29:54.160 --> 00:29:58.240 death from COVID, obviously, deaths, some heart disease, and deaths 364 00:29:58.279 --> 00:30:04.799 from other main health related causes, including overdoses are all 365 00:30:04.960 --> 00:30:12.160 getting better. And that's all good news. Heart disease deaths 366 00:30:12.720 --> 00:30:15.160 dropped by about three percent of twenty twenty three and 367 00:30:15.480 --> 00:30:21.599 dropping a little bit more in twenty twenty four. And 368 00:30:21.839 --> 00:30:23.799 let's see what else do we want to see? Yeah, 369 00:30:23.960 --> 00:30:29.039 I mean, I do want to say this. It's kind 370 00:30:29.039 --> 00:30:34.240 of shocking and really really surprising that life expectancy is 371 00:30:34.279 --> 00:30:41.119 increasing because I was told by authoritative people, authoritative voices, 372 00:30:41.640 --> 00:30:46.359 people with medical degrees and some with not medical degrees 373 00:30:47.440 --> 00:30:52.279 but PhDs nonetheless, that the COVID vaccine was going to 374 00:30:52.359 --> 00:30:56.799 kill us all over time, and that because of the 375 00:30:56.799 --> 00:30:59.839 COVID vaccine, because all of us took it. Cancer rags 376 00:30:59.839 --> 00:31:02.160 of going up, heart disease rates are going up, and 377 00:31:02.240 --> 00:31:07.599 everything else is going up. I don't know what's going on. Somebody, 378 00:31:07.960 --> 00:31:12.880 somebody has been spreading fake news. Don't know who it is. 379 00:31:13.599 --> 00:31:16.720 Don't know who it is, but somebody seems to be, 380 00:31:16.759 --> 00:31:22.880 you know, spreading fake news. So yeah, life expectancy is improving. 381 00:31:23.640 --> 00:31:28.279 It could be improving a lot faster, would be improving 382 00:31:28.279 --> 00:31:32.920 a lot faster if not for these anti science bureaucrats 383 00:31:33.559 --> 00:31:37.240 in the government. We now have an anti science bureaucrat 384 00:31:37.240 --> 00:31:39.519 who's going to be heading up the Health and Human Services. 385 00:31:39.920 --> 00:31:43.359 So maybe we'll see a reversal of this trend of 386 00:31:43.440 --> 00:31:48.880 increased life expectancy with the appointment of rfk Uh. So 387 00:31:49.799 --> 00:31:53.240 we'll see, we'll see what actually what happens. But there 388 00:31:53.279 --> 00:31:57.119 are opportunities to dramatically increase life expectancy in the United 389 00:31:57.160 --> 00:32:02.599 States summer. Some of what RFK is proposing is actually true. 390 00:32:02.640 --> 00:32:04.680 That is, people should be eating better, and they should 391 00:32:04.680 --> 00:32:07.880 be exercising, and they should be doing stuff like that, 392 00:32:07.960 --> 00:32:12.000 and life expectancy will probably increase dramatically if people do that. 393 00:32:12.119 --> 00:32:16.319 I mean, obesity is the main cause of death one 394 00:32:16.359 --> 00:32:20.440 way or the other. Which is not really captured and 395 00:32:20.640 --> 00:32:22.839 can be taken care of if just people took care 396 00:32:22.839 --> 00:32:32.279 of themselves. All right, Rick says, doesn't RFK have to 397 00:32:32.279 --> 00:32:36.240 be approved by Congress? Yeah, by the Senate, not by Congress, 398 00:32:36.240 --> 00:32:39.200 by the Senate. Yeah, and you think you won't be 399 00:32:39.839 --> 00:32:43.119 What makes you think that you just ask to get 400 00:32:44.039 --> 00:32:47.279 I mean, the Republicans will control the Senate and he 401 00:32:47.440 --> 00:32:49.559