WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.040 --> 00:00:03.040 A lot of the conversation around NATO, for example, is 2 00:00:03.080 --> 00:00:06.639 interesting where people who should know better think that, you know, 3 00:00:06.759 --> 00:00:10.359 if a country in Europe doesn't pay they're three percent 4 00:00:10.439 --> 00:00:14.560 GDP or whatever into NATO into defense, that we pick 5 00:00:14.640 --> 00:00:17.719 up the tab, that the American taxpayer picks up the tab, 6 00:00:17.760 --> 00:00:20.600 and it's like, know, the reality is that America pays 7 00:00:20.600 --> 00:00:23.199 something like two hundred, two hundred and fifty million dollars 8 00:00:23.239 --> 00:00:25.960 a year into NATO, depending on what exercises are run 9 00:00:26.039 --> 00:00:28.760 that year. It's a very low cost investment for US, 10 00:00:28.800 --> 00:00:31.719 and it's the most successful military alliance, maybe the most 11 00:00:31.760 --> 00:00:38.479 successful alliance America has had historically, full stop. So, I mean, 12 00:00:39.119 --> 00:00:41.520 if you want to cut costs, I get it, but 13 00:00:42.039 --> 00:00:45.159 like we'd be a little bit smarter about it. And 14 00:00:45.479 --> 00:00:49.640 if we are cutting costs, my question is where's my 15 00:00:49.799 --> 00:00:52.759 tax break? And I don't just mean that like ironically. 16 00:00:52.920 --> 00:00:55.479 I mean, if you're like slashing the size of the 17 00:00:55.520 --> 00:00:58.520 government in half, then it stands the reason that the 18 00:00:58.560 --> 00:01:02.439 budget is slashed in half and that the American average 19 00:01:02.479 --> 00:01:05.920 American worker should be taking home more money, right, But 20 00:01:06.040 --> 00:01:08.159 I haven't seen that in the conversation anywhere. 21 00:01:22.599 --> 00:01:25.640 What's up, guys, Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. 22 00:01:25.640 --> 00:01:28.599 We got a full crew today, Jason Lyons, Andy Milburgh, mcmulroy, 23 00:01:28.719 --> 00:01:32.239 Jack Murphy, and myself. A lot going on and chatting, 24 00:01:32.239 --> 00:01:33.560 a lot. I wish I could have played I could. 25 00:01:33.640 --> 00:01:35.200 I wish I could have recorded what we were talking 26 00:01:35.239 --> 00:01:38.400 about before. I feel like people would probably get a 27 00:01:38.480 --> 00:01:41.519 kick out of it. A lot happening as usual, the 28 00:01:41.560 --> 00:01:45.280 world's falling part of the scenes. It seems like thing 29 00:01:45.319 --> 00:01:48.280 that just popped off recently, like literally an hour before 30 00:01:48.319 --> 00:01:52.120 we kicked off. Pentagon informs European diplomats that the US 31 00:01:52.200 --> 00:01:56.359 will partially halt military assistant to Baltic nations and NATO 32 00:01:56.439 --> 00:02:01.079 states bordering Russia. All this happening, and uh, this is 33 00:02:01.120 --> 00:02:04.640 from Reuters. All this happening when we you know, for 34 00:02:04.680 --> 00:02:10.719 the third time in about a week, Russia's breached NATO airspace, Poland, Romania, 35 00:02:10.759 --> 00:02:14.319 and just recently Estonia. I think that was yesterday Estonia 36 00:02:14.680 --> 00:02:18.599 invoking Article four. Even though Article four was invoked by Poland. 37 00:02:20.919 --> 00:02:23.360 I think this makes history because the last time Article 38 00:02:23.360 --> 00:02:26.960 four was invoked I think was Turkey, and that happened 39 00:02:27.000 --> 00:02:28.599 like within a couple of months of like a few 40 00:02:28.599 --> 00:02:30.560 months of each other. This is like the most the 41 00:02:30.639 --> 00:02:35.199 quickest it's been invoked in like history. Andy, we spoke 42 00:02:35.240 --> 00:02:37.159 about it last week in article four. Is kind of like, 43 00:02:37.199 --> 00:02:39.719 you know, window dressing a little bit. I mean, does 44 00:02:39.879 --> 00:02:43.680 you know NATO did come up with the Operation Eastern 45 00:02:43.719 --> 00:02:46.400 Century and stuff like that. I'm assuming I guess Estonia 46 00:02:46.479 --> 00:02:49.120 wants to like kind of step that up a little bit. Uh, 47 00:02:49.599 --> 00:02:52.639 maybe they don't think it's going far enough. What do 48 00:02:52.680 --> 00:02:55.400 you guys make of US pausing or holding military aid 49 00:02:55.400 --> 00:02:57.319 to our NATO allies in the East while this is 50 00:02:57.360 --> 00:03:00.599 all happening, You guys can mud wrestle for who those first? 51 00:03:00.879 --> 00:03:04.199 Anybody make your own mute? 52 00:03:06.000 --> 00:03:10.680 Sorry, short sighted to say the least. I think I 53 00:03:10.719 --> 00:03:15.080 looked at it. The Baltic security initiatives only around two 54 00:03:15.120 --> 00:03:17.400 hundred and fifty million dollars, which is a lot for 55 00:03:17.879 --> 00:03:20.840 you know, the dudes on this podcast, But it's really 56 00:03:20.840 --> 00:03:23.680 not that much when it comes to US national security, 57 00:03:23.719 --> 00:03:26.439 which is about one point one trillion dollars right now 58 00:03:26.439 --> 00:03:29.280 for the next defense budget. So if you really put 59 00:03:29.280 --> 00:03:33.960 that into it's it's not that much, but it's symbolically 60 00:03:34.000 --> 00:03:38.280 a big deal to cut it off right from these 61 00:03:38.319 --> 00:03:42.120 Baltic countries that are on the border of Russia, right, 62 00:03:42.120 --> 00:03:49.879 it's a Pole, and then Latvia, Lithuania and I think Estonia, right, 63 00:03:50.400 --> 00:03:53.319 So those those countries need to be bolstered, they need 64 00:03:53.360 --> 00:03:56.159 to be prepared. That's how you have a strong defense 65 00:03:56.199 --> 00:03:58.800 in NATO is to be ready. I think the US 66 00:03:58.919 --> 00:04:02.240 was right over a multiple administrations to push our NATO 67 00:04:02.280 --> 00:04:04.360 partners to do more from their own defense. But they 68 00:04:04.400 --> 00:04:08.120 are now. But it's not the time to just pull out, 69 00:04:09.479 --> 00:04:15.080 which is in many ways symbolic, but security for those 70 00:04:15.080 --> 00:04:17.560 countries to be able to get their stuff together. And 71 00:04:17.720 --> 00:04:19.519 you know, as you guys know, my son's deployed an 72 00:04:19.600 --> 00:04:22.519 hundred first out there right now and they are working 73 00:04:22.600 --> 00:04:25.839 to make sure that our NATO allies are ready to go. 74 00:04:26.399 --> 00:04:30.040 And you know it's anecdotal, of course, but everything I've 75 00:04:30.040 --> 00:04:35.199 heard is these countries aren't fucking around. They are quadrupling 76 00:04:35.240 --> 00:04:38.720 their defense budget. They are they're doubling the size of 77 00:04:38.720 --> 00:04:43.800 their military, they are spending money, they are basically doing 78 00:04:43.879 --> 00:04:46.560 everything I think we hauld ask them to do. That's 79 00:04:46.639 --> 00:04:49.319 not the time for US to then withdraw all our 80 00:04:49.360 --> 00:04:54.160 support for the very military alliance that fought side by 81 00:04:54.240 --> 00:04:57.439 side with US twenty years after we were attacked on 82 00:04:57.519 --> 00:05:00.480 nine to eleven, and not only in Afghanistan, going to 83 00:05:00.519 --> 00:05:02.720 Iraq with US, which had nothing to do with nine 84 00:05:02.759 --> 00:05:05.879 to eleven. So I know I get on the soapbox 85 00:05:06.000 --> 00:05:08.360 a lot when we talk about this, but this is 86 00:05:08.439 --> 00:05:11.639 just another indication that the United States has withdrawing from 87 00:05:11.920 --> 00:05:15.360 which been a privileged position as leader of the free 88 00:05:15.360 --> 00:05:18.560 world for you know, as long as there's been one. 89 00:05:18.839 --> 00:05:24.360 So I think it's pretty clear. I'm against said withdraw 90 00:05:24.439 --> 00:05:26.680 off support. We need to be increasing it now. The 91 00:05:26.800 --> 00:05:29.759 last thing I'd say, obviously throw it to the rest 92 00:05:29.759 --> 00:05:33.399 of the folks, is I do agree with the idea 93 00:05:33.439 --> 00:05:36.920 that Europe needs to stop buying energy from Russia. I 94 00:05:36.959 --> 00:05:39.800 think we should do the secondary sanctions to prevent countries 95 00:05:39.839 --> 00:05:43.560 like India and China and Turkey from buying Russian oil. 96 00:05:43.959 --> 00:05:46.839 But the fact that there's still European countries that are 97 00:05:46.839 --> 00:05:49.519 buying at the same time they're begging for US assistance, 98 00:05:49.959 --> 00:05:52.959 I think sends the wrong message. And it's the right 99 00:05:53.000 --> 00:05:55.439 message from the White House to tell them that they 100 00:05:55.480 --> 00:05:57.839 need to cut that off as well, because that's how 101 00:05:57.879 --> 00:05:59.199 we fund this war machine. 102 00:06:01.680 --> 00:06:05.160 Do you know, I think, first of all, and I 103 00:06:05.360 --> 00:06:06.040 you know, I hate. 104 00:06:09.319 --> 00:06:11.600 Jack. I think you're a little laggy. Yeah, it seems 105 00:06:11.600 --> 00:06:14.720 to be a little If you want to cuttack and 106 00:06:14.759 --> 00:06:17.000 maybe reset your internet and stuff and cut back in, 107 00:06:17.079 --> 00:06:23.920 will be here. Thanks. Yep, sorry, Andy, go ahead, Yeah, 108 00:06:23.920 --> 00:06:26.000 I was all right. 109 00:06:26.160 --> 00:06:29.879 I hate to sound monotonous, but I agree with Mick. 110 00:06:31.759 --> 00:06:33.399 You know, I hate to agree with Mick that much, 111 00:06:33.439 --> 00:06:36.639 but I do. But you know, I think that I 112 00:06:36.680 --> 00:06:39.120 think the question really is why are we doing this? 113 00:06:39.800 --> 00:06:43.560 You know, rather than then it be in our court 114 00:06:43.639 --> 00:06:48.040 to rail about it again, it's really it's incomprehensible. 115 00:06:48.120 --> 00:06:48.319 You know. 116 00:06:48.399 --> 00:06:51.480 Mick pointed out the tiny amount of money that we 117 00:06:51.560 --> 00:06:56.600 spend on Baltic defense compared to our defense, our defense budget, 118 00:06:57.120 --> 00:06:59.040 and and then you know, at the end of the day, 119 00:06:59.639 --> 00:07:01.839 look how much I know it's a bad example, but 120 00:07:01.879 --> 00:07:05.720 look how much we spent on futile wars in Afghanistan 121 00:07:05.800 --> 00:07:10.519 and Iraq, trillions of dollars right, let alone the bloodshed, 122 00:07:10.920 --> 00:07:14.079 and we got nothing out of it. And again in 123 00:07:15.759 --> 00:07:22.040 the proxy conflict against Russia that Ukraine has been waging 124 00:07:22.079 --> 00:07:27.480 the last three years, we and our NATO allies have 125 00:07:27.600 --> 00:07:31.639 gained a great deal and the cost only of money. 126 00:07:31.920 --> 00:07:34.199 And again a fraction of the money that we spent 127 00:07:34.240 --> 00:07:38.199 in Afghanistan. So where were all these critics during the 128 00:07:38.240 --> 00:07:41.800 twenty years in Afghanistan? Right from the same voices, were 129 00:07:42.079 --> 00:07:44.800 the same people going, oh yeah, you know, you know. 130 00:07:45.519 --> 00:07:46.560 We we. 131 00:07:48.199 --> 00:07:51.040 We're on the verge of victory over and over again 132 00:07:51.279 --> 00:07:53.519 every year for twenty years, you know. And I had 133 00:07:53.519 --> 00:07:56.279 a discussion the other day with the guy I can't 134 00:07:56.480 --> 00:07:59.399 really call him a moron. I mean, he's a West 135 00:07:59.399 --> 00:08:02.160 Point graduate. It okay, but let me continue on this. 136 00:08:02.439 --> 00:08:10.639 He's a PhD. And he made the same comprehensible statement 137 00:08:10.680 --> 00:08:12.079 to me. You know, first of all, why do people 138 00:08:12.120 --> 00:08:14.639 bring up politics and cocktail parties nowadays? So I just 139 00:08:14.680 --> 00:08:17.160 don't understand it. It's one thing for us to talk 140 00:08:17.160 --> 00:08:20.839 about geopolitics here, but we you know, we we've learned 141 00:08:20.879 --> 00:08:23.879 we stay clear of domestic politics just because it's become 142 00:08:24.920 --> 00:08:29.920 such a state, such a hot issue and a divisive 143 00:08:29.959 --> 00:08:33.639 issue among people who don't have enough maturity to to argue. 144 00:08:33.639 --> 00:08:36.360 But anyway, so this guy brings up politics at a 145 00:08:36.360 --> 00:08:38.720 at a booseless cocktail party, by the way, which is 146 00:08:38.720 --> 00:08:46.200 even worse. Yeah, and he says to me, you know, 147 00:08:46.240 --> 00:08:49.279 it's about Ukraine. So he knows my background, and it's 148 00:08:49.279 --> 00:08:54.120 probably not a good idea to defend Russia anyway. But 149 00:08:54.279 --> 00:08:55.960 he's like, you know, I'm just tired of seeing the 150 00:08:56.000 --> 00:09:00.919 Americans waste in American taxpayer wasting money on Ukraine. And 151 00:09:00.960 --> 00:09:02.960 then the second question thing, he said, I don't even 152 00:09:03.039 --> 00:09:06.080 understand what the war is about anyway, you know, it's 153 00:09:06.120 --> 00:09:08.720 just from the PhD. And then he went on a 154 00:09:08.720 --> 00:09:11.080 long monologue about you know, how much money it was 155 00:09:11.120 --> 00:09:14.039 costing this and that, and I'm thinking, dude, where were 156 00:09:14.120 --> 00:09:16.440 you in the last twenty years? I mean I was, 157 00:09:16.919 --> 00:09:20.000 I went easy on him, but he's not. 158 00:09:20.559 --> 00:09:23.240 Where is he today? We're still i mean, dumping money 159 00:09:23.240 --> 00:09:25.879 into Israel and nobody says anything about that. 160 00:09:26.120 --> 00:09:28.559 Yeah, we just we just rodge it up to another 161 00:09:29.120 --> 00:09:31.159 six billion, right, six point four? 162 00:09:31.279 --> 00:09:31.720 Yeah? 163 00:09:31.919 --> 00:09:34.840 Yeah, yeah, that's but that's apparently not an issue, you 164 00:09:34.879 --> 00:09:36.480 know for the American tax pan. 165 00:09:37.360 --> 00:09:39.200 Well, what did you think we should be spending all this? 166 00:09:39.759 --> 00:09:42.879 I assume he was against the one point one trillion 167 00:09:43.720 --> 00:09:46.919 dollar defense budget, right, so where would he think it. 168 00:09:46.840 --> 00:09:47.480 Would be more? 169 00:09:48.080 --> 00:09:50.639 I know this is somewhat a rhetorical question, but I 170 00:09:50.639 --> 00:09:53.200 would be wondering if you asked him, like, then, where 171 00:09:53.200 --> 00:09:56.159 would we get a better bang for the buck than 172 00:09:56.240 --> 00:10:00.799 supporting Ukraine, who's fighting our most I think dangerous adversary. 173 00:10:00.960 --> 00:10:05.080 Right, you should ask that question, because he thinks that 174 00:10:05.240 --> 00:10:10.799 d C is deploying. Deploying the National Guarden military to 175 00:10:10.840 --> 00:10:12.759 places like d C is a greater use of our 176 00:10:12.840 --> 00:10:16.360 defense budget. You know, I mean, the math doesn't quite correlate, 177 00:10:16.440 --> 00:10:17.519 and you know that. 178 00:10:17.600 --> 00:10:20.600 Went to West BOYD thinks that happening soldiers pick up 179 00:10:20.639 --> 00:10:22.519 traction in DC. 180 00:10:23.240 --> 00:10:26.519 pH serious, I'm not. I'm not saying this just to 181 00:10:26.600 --> 00:10:32.360 vilify him. I'm saying sadly, sadly, this is not uncommon 182 00:10:32.399 --> 00:10:35.519 among people who you would think were educated to think better. 183 00:10:36.240 --> 00:10:37.919 I mean, we all know believe that. 184 00:10:38.039 --> 00:10:40.080 I think they're just repeating something I don't. I don't 185 00:10:40.120 --> 00:10:41.120 even think they believe it. 186 00:10:41.399 --> 00:10:44.840 I agree with you, I agree with you. But one 187 00:10:44.879 --> 00:10:47.399 thing that upsets me a little bit, I'm not probably 188 00:10:47.399 --> 00:10:51.720 doesn't upset Jack because he enjoys the controversy and the 189 00:10:51.759 --> 00:10:55.080 cun thrust of of vicious debate. 190 00:10:55.159 --> 00:10:57.919 Any anytime you can dunk on army officers, I'm here 191 00:10:57.960 --> 00:10:58.279 for it. 192 00:10:58.799 --> 00:11:03.879 No, I'm with you, but you for guys like you 193 00:11:03.960 --> 00:11:08.679 and me, normal human beings don't. Don't you find it? 194 00:11:08.720 --> 00:11:14.519 At times I view, I look back and I view, 195 00:11:16.279 --> 00:11:18.960 you know, obviously I look at view my military service, 196 00:11:19.039 --> 00:11:21.320 you know, without without regret. But he and we've talked 197 00:11:21.320 --> 00:11:24.559 about this, but I'm amazed how many of my former 198 00:11:24.600 --> 00:11:27.679 colleagues seem more caught up in this same kind of 199 00:11:27.720 --> 00:11:31.600 weird argument about our current foreign policy, that that Russia 200 00:11:31.720 --> 00:11:35.399 is no longer an enemy and that you know, Canada 201 00:11:35.600 --> 00:11:38.600 is or Venezuela is, or that China is no longer 202 00:11:38.639 --> 00:11:42.279 something to be concerned about, or Taiwan isn't something that 203 00:11:42.440 --> 00:11:46.200 we should even think that, you know, I mean think 204 00:11:46.200 --> 00:11:49.240 about defending or pretend to defend. You know, these are 205 00:11:51.039 --> 00:11:54.639 you know that you know that that's what's so from 206 00:11:54.679 --> 00:11:58.000 the norm among people that we used to think we're 207 00:11:58.159 --> 00:12:00.159 rational human beings. And alongside I. 208 00:12:00.159 --> 00:12:03.840 Used to say the exact opposite, like four years ago, 209 00:12:03.919 --> 00:12:07.120 and they're in their fifties. So they go from thinking 210 00:12:07.159 --> 00:12:12.200 that China and Russia is the main adversary actually participating 211 00:12:12.240 --> 00:12:16.279 in drafting the national security strategy, and then four years later, 212 00:12:16.399 --> 00:12:19.799 in their fifties, they decide that the US military should 213 00:12:19.799 --> 00:12:23.559 focus domestically that I mean, I have a problem with 214 00:12:23.600 --> 00:12:26.039 people disagree with me. I was in policy right now. 215 00:12:27.399 --> 00:12:30.039 That's fine, but I don't even believe that they believe 216 00:12:30.080 --> 00:12:31.879 what they're saying right now. 217 00:12:33.440 --> 00:12:35.679 You do have to wonder about the sincerity when they 218 00:12:36.399 --> 00:12:39.919 seem to flip flop every couple of years, right yeah. 219 00:12:40.799 --> 00:12:42.600 Is it just about keeping a job or do they 220 00:12:42.639 --> 00:12:47.799 actually have an ideology when it comes to US national security? 221 00:12:49.360 --> 00:12:51.600 Hey, guys, how's it going. It's d I want to 222 00:12:51.639 --> 00:12:53.600 thank you for watching this show. I really appreciate it. 223 00:12:53.720 --> 00:12:56.799 I love for you guys to check out our Patreon 224 00:12:57.039 --> 00:13:01.080 exact Patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. 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We really appreciate the patrons that are there now. 236 00:13:37.840 --> 00:13:41.120 We couldn't do it without you, guys, so consider supporting 237 00:13:41.159 --> 00:13:43.960 the show. It's at Patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. 238 00:13:44.000 --> 00:13:46.320 The link is in the description and in the show notes. 239 00:13:46.320 --> 00:13:49.080 If you're listening to us on audio. Really appreciate it, guys. 240 00:13:49.080 --> 00:13:54.000 Thank you. Yeah, you got to ask. 241 00:13:53.840 --> 00:14:02.600 Them, Yeah, yeah. It's al much as though their belief 242 00:14:02.720 --> 00:14:07.519 in a certain stance in domestic politics has driven Coman 243 00:14:07.639 --> 00:14:11.960 to admit unrealistic views of foreign policy that in their 244 00:14:12.039 --> 00:14:15.720 hearts they know that's little foundation. 245 00:14:16.639 --> 00:14:19.159 Yeah, I mean, it's like a lot of the conversation 246 00:14:19.279 --> 00:14:23.279 around NATO, for example, is interesting where people who should 247 00:14:23.360 --> 00:14:25.960 know better think that, you know, if a country in 248 00:14:26.000 --> 00:14:30.000 Europe doesn't pay their three percent GDP or whatever into 249 00:14:30.080 --> 00:14:33.440 NATO into defense, that we pick up the tab, that 250 00:14:33.480 --> 00:14:36.279 the American taxpayer picks up the tab. And it's like, 251 00:14:36.600 --> 00:14:39.159 you know, the reality is that America pays something like 252 00:14:39.200 --> 00:14:41.639 two d two hundred and fifty million dollars a year 253 00:14:41.639 --> 00:14:44.559 into NATO, depending on what exercises are run that year. 254 00:14:46.639 --> 00:14:49.200 It's a very low cost investment for US, and it's 255 00:14:49.240 --> 00:14:52.879 the most successful military alliance, maybe the most successful alliance 256 00:14:53.200 --> 00:14:54.919 America has had historically. 257 00:14:55.120 --> 00:14:55.840 Full stop. 258 00:14:57.919 --> 00:15:01.360 So I mean, if you want to costs, I get it, 259 00:15:01.639 --> 00:15:04.600 but like we'd be a little bit smarter about it. 260 00:15:05.279 --> 00:15:09.759 And if we are cutting costs, my question is where's 261 00:15:09.799 --> 00:15:13.000 my tax break? And I don't just mean that like ironically. 262 00:15:13.120 --> 00:15:15.720 I mean if you're like slashing the size of the 263 00:15:15.759 --> 00:15:18.759 government in half, then it stands the reason that the 264 00:15:18.799 --> 00:15:22.679 budget is slashed in half and that the American, average 265 00:15:22.679 --> 00:15:26.159 American worker should be taking home more money. Right, But 266 00:15:26.279 --> 00:15:28.480 I haven't seen that in the conversation anywhere. 267 00:15:29.559 --> 00:15:32.480 Sure, And that's a good point, Jack, because it's not 268 00:15:32.519 --> 00:15:34.320 a country club, right, It's not that we have to 269 00:15:34.320 --> 00:15:36.639 make up for the dues, and it's about spending money 270 00:15:36.639 --> 00:15:39.679 on your own defense. So if we say, you know, 271 00:15:39.720 --> 00:15:42.120 some of the extreme views would be pull out of NATO, 272 00:15:43.039 --> 00:15:45.120 well we're not gonna save any money. We're gonna have 273 00:15:45.159 --> 00:15:47.200 to actually pay more money to build our own defense 274 00:15:47.240 --> 00:15:50.120 because we're going to be an island of one. So 275 00:15:50.200 --> 00:15:52.559 if you amass all the other countries in NATO, they 276 00:15:52.600 --> 00:15:56.279 actually have a pretty substantial military capablity capability and within 277 00:15:56.399 --> 00:15:59.840 five years it could be a substantial military capability, right, 278 00:16:00.039 --> 00:16:03.279 because they are like they are taking this stuff serious. 279 00:16:03.679 --> 00:16:07.240 So it isn't our own national security, It isn't charity. 280 00:16:07.279 --> 00:16:10.519 And at the same time that we're looking at whether 281 00:16:10.559 --> 00:16:12.039 we should have this alliance, and I agree with the 282 00:16:12.080 --> 00:16:15.000 Jack it's probably the most significant military alliance in history. 283 00:16:15.399 --> 00:16:18.879 Our adversaries are building alliances. They're going the other direction. 284 00:16:19.360 --> 00:16:23.720 Look at the conference they just had, the Shanghai co Operation. 285 00:16:24.399 --> 00:16:28.120 Russia keeps attacking NATO and trying to undermine NATO because 286 00:16:28.159 --> 00:16:30.200 it knows it's the biggest threat to. 287 00:16:30.159 --> 00:16:34.519 Them, absolutely, and they're trying to build their alliances, even 288 00:16:34.519 --> 00:16:37.879 including countries that have historically been more aligned with the 289 00:16:37.919 --> 00:16:41.440 West are now they're trying to build those So we're 290 00:16:41.480 --> 00:16:45.159 trying to withdraw at the same time they're trying to expand, 291 00:16:45.360 --> 00:16:49.120 and and we're ignoring the fact that the US could 292 00:16:49.200 --> 00:16:52.679 lose its place as the primary country, you know, the 293 00:16:52.720 --> 00:16:56.679 indispensal nation in the world because of our own actions, right, 294 00:16:57.159 --> 00:16:58.759 we're almost enhancing. 295 00:17:01.720 --> 00:17:05.000 And for those who are disinterested, I mean we've talked 296 00:17:05.039 --> 00:17:07.680 about this a little bit too, who think that we 297 00:17:07.759 --> 00:17:12.359 can take an early nineteenth century view of America first, 298 00:17:12.480 --> 00:17:18.160 and that are only concern ourselves with immediately what's crossing 299 00:17:18.160 --> 00:17:21.519 our borders. As all of these things turn south. It's 300 00:17:21.519 --> 00:17:24.240 about it's going to have an effect on the global economy, 301 00:17:24.240 --> 00:17:26.519 which is going to have an effect on the pocketbooks 302 00:17:26.519 --> 00:17:29.000 of every single American. I mean, do you think the 303 00:17:29.119 --> 00:17:31.839 Chinese are going to take Taiwan? I know, you guys know, 304 00:17:32.000 --> 00:17:33.720 do you think they're going to take Taiwan and the 305 00:17:33.720 --> 00:17:36.880 global economy will go on just ticking along as though 306 00:17:37.000 --> 00:17:40.359 nothing has happened. I mean, look what Taiwan is the 307 00:17:40.400 --> 00:17:44.640 source of all the chips. Then the video uses that 308 00:17:44.720 --> 00:17:52.240 micron technology uses come from Taiwan. Semi what's it, Semi Semiconductor, TSM, 309 00:17:52.440 --> 00:17:57.799 semiconductor manufacturer, it's anyway. 310 00:17:58.000 --> 00:18:00.599 Yeah, it's interesting, Andy. I mean, we have this game 311 00:18:00.640 --> 00:18:06.559 twice before, right, isolationism, and it didn't work out either time. 312 00:18:07.119 --> 00:18:11.640 Another interesting example is Japan. Japan self isolated itself for 313 00:18:11.759 --> 00:18:15.720 something like five or six hundred years, and because they 314 00:18:15.759 --> 00:18:18.839 did that to kind of preserve their own culture and 315 00:18:19.079 --> 00:18:22.880 not look outward, they felt so far behind technologically that 316 00:18:22.960 --> 00:18:25.480 when they came back into contact with the West and 317 00:18:25.480 --> 00:18:28.759 with other civilizations, they were so far behind. They were 318 00:18:28.799 --> 00:18:31.440 getting their asses handed to them. And that's why the 319 00:18:31.480 --> 00:18:34.680 Meiji Restoration happened and they disposed of the shogunate and 320 00:18:34.720 --> 00:18:36.960 restored the emperor and all this other kind of stuff. 321 00:18:37.160 --> 00:18:40.480 It was because isolationism just doesn't. 322 00:18:40.160 --> 00:18:44.680 Work, especially if there's a global economy. 323 00:18:44.359 --> 00:18:48.279 Right right, We're not in sixteen hundred either, right. 324 00:18:48.200 --> 00:18:50.680 Right, exactly. This is it's kind of odd that we're 325 00:18:50.720 --> 00:18:53.599 even having this debate. My point and then I'll get 326 00:18:53.640 --> 00:18:55.240 off it is I think a lot of the people 327 00:18:55.279 --> 00:18:57.680 were having a debate with don't actually believe what they're saying, 328 00:18:57.920 --> 00:19:00.920 because they didn't a year ago. So I don't understand 329 00:19:00.920 --> 00:19:04.680 how one could go shift your entire geopolitical view of 330 00:19:04.680 --> 00:19:07.200 the world, whether the US should be and shouldn't be, 331 00:19:08.680 --> 00:19:13.920 that that dramatically that quick without anything other than events 332 00:19:14.000 --> 00:19:18.440 like the invasion of Ukraine happening, right, the expansion of 333 00:19:19.279 --> 00:19:23.240 Chinese influence around the world withdraw of US foreign assistants 334 00:19:23.559 --> 00:19:28.720 being made up by our adversaries, especially China. I mean, 335 00:19:28.839 --> 00:19:31.319 one of the things that came out of the Shanghai 336 00:19:31.400 --> 00:19:34.079 Cooperation Organization was that they're going to come up with 337 00:19:34.119 --> 00:19:37.960 the Developmental Bank collectively, right, what is that going to do? 338 00:19:38.160 --> 00:19:38.319 Well? 339 00:19:38.400 --> 00:19:41.000 It's going to replace everything that we were doing these 340 00:19:41.039 --> 00:19:44.839 developmental countries to build allies and training partners right, that's 341 00:19:44.880 --> 00:19:47.920 what they didn't. They didn't just come up with that. 342 00:19:47.960 --> 00:19:50.119 They saw us doing it, they thought it was working, 343 00:19:50.160 --> 00:19:52.759 and then they saw us withdraw and so they're going 344 00:19:52.839 --> 00:19:58.200 to replace you know, the US with the Chinese version 345 00:19:58.240 --> 00:20:00.799 of that, you know, and now not just Chinese, it's 346 00:20:00.839 --> 00:20:04.000 with these twenty nations that went to China to have 347 00:20:04.079 --> 00:20:04.480 this song. 348 00:20:04.799 --> 00:20:07.079 So yeah, so what are you guys thinking in terms 349 00:20:07.119 --> 00:20:10.240 of like, uh, you know, in twenty twelve when we 350 00:20:10.279 --> 00:20:15.680 saw Russian Russian jets penetrate Turkish air space, Turkey shot 351 00:20:15.720 --> 00:20:19.680 down some shot down the jet. But a thought is 352 00:20:19.720 --> 00:20:22.279 a thought process or the analysis a little bit different 353 00:20:22.319 --> 00:20:25.920 now because Russia did go full scale invasion into Ukraine. 354 00:20:26.519 --> 00:20:29.279 They're not you know, maybe they're not. They're operating at 355 00:20:29.279 --> 00:20:32.599 a different level. Is our NATO allies the people that 356 00:20:32.640 --> 00:20:35.680 are on the front lines, whether it's Romania, Poland or whoever, 357 00:20:36.319 --> 00:20:38.839 are they more worried about like shooting down a Russian 358 00:20:38.920 --> 00:20:44.799 jet that breaches airspace for twelve minutes? As like are 359 00:20:44.839 --> 00:20:47.839 they worried about escalation wearing compared to when Turkey shot 360 00:20:47.880 --> 00:20:50.440 them down, like they you know, didn't do shit. 361 00:20:51.440 --> 00:20:54.039 I don't think the difference is overseas the differences here 362 00:20:54.079 --> 00:20:57.000 in the United States. So when you think about it, 363 00:20:57.839 --> 00:20:59.839 I mean it was it was the same I mean 364 00:21:00.119 --> 00:21:06.119 Trump administration when it was Yes, it was the Trump 365 00:21:06.160 --> 00:21:09.279 administration when when all those Russian contractors, we killed all 366 00:21:09.279 --> 00:21:12.519 those Russian contractors in Syria. But the difference was that 367 00:21:12.640 --> 00:21:17.279 you had you had Madison McMaster right, who were who 368 00:21:17.319 --> 00:21:21.119 were shaping the environment. I mean had you had adults 369 00:21:21.119 --> 00:21:26.319 who understood the rules of geopolitics and understood where the 370 00:21:26.400 --> 00:21:29.160 Russians were back down. You had guys like you know, 371 00:21:29.200 --> 00:21:31.640 I'm not blaming the current Sencom commander, but you had 372 00:21:31.680 --> 00:21:35.759 guys like a Hotel then who had sent kam who 373 00:21:35.839 --> 00:21:41.400 was able to to craft shape the decision making so 374 00:21:41.440 --> 00:21:44.640 that with the Russians across the red line, everyone from 375 00:21:44.680 --> 00:21:48.839 the President downwards was on board with a rapid response, 376 00:21:49.240 --> 00:21:52.480 and the Russians backpedaled rapidly after that. They never did 377 00:21:52.519 --> 00:21:55.079 it again. They lost some two hundred and fifty and 378 00:21:55.200 --> 00:21:57.640 by the way, it wasn't just contractors. They lost a 379 00:21:57.680 --> 00:22:01.359 few other active duty guys too. Grass him Off, who 380 00:22:01.440 --> 00:22:05.319 was the general in Syria, admitted to that too. So 381 00:22:05.839 --> 00:22:08.839 you know, it was if you're talking about escalation, killing Russians, 382 00:22:10.319 --> 00:22:14.240 not just mercenaries, but but members of that military. You 383 00:22:14.240 --> 00:22:16.279 would think would bring them to the point of escalation, 384 00:22:16.400 --> 00:22:19.200 but it did not. And I think the difference is 385 00:22:19.279 --> 00:22:22.359 just because the guys involved in the decision making and 386 00:22:22.440 --> 00:22:26.480 shaping the president's view on this had years of national 387 00:22:26.519 --> 00:22:30.880 security experience behind them and Russia and understood Russian mentality. 388 00:22:30.880 --> 00:22:37.839 We're talking, we're talking for Hotel, we're talking Thomas who 389 00:22:37.880 --> 00:22:45.640 had so calm McMaster moulroy, Nick mcmulroy exactly. 390 00:22:45.960 --> 00:22:48.319 And I was with all those guys if I agree 391 00:22:48.319 --> 00:22:51.759 with you on their on their capabilities and leadership, that's 392 00:22:51.799 --> 00:22:54.839 for sure. And the only thing Russia understands is consequence 393 00:22:54.839 --> 00:22:56.559 is right. So I'm not saying you should shoot down 394 00:22:56.559 --> 00:22:58.480 a plenty for flying in there five minutes, But I'd say, 395 00:22:58.599 --> 00:23:00.279 what do they not want to see? I want to 396 00:23:00.279 --> 00:23:02.480 see military build up on their border. So every time 397 00:23:02.519 --> 00:23:05.119 something like that's happened, they should say, Okay, cool, we're 398 00:23:05.119 --> 00:23:08.119 doing another excise or putting some more uh, you know, 399 00:23:09.000 --> 00:23:13.039 NATO assets on the border every time, every time? Right, 400 00:23:13.400 --> 00:23:15.000 So what do they and what do they look for? 401 00:23:15.039 --> 00:23:17.519