WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:03.160 I want you to imagine just for a second that 2 00:00:03.240 --> 00:00:07.160 you are the lead architect of a multimillion dollar satellite. 3 00:00:07.160 --> 00:00:10.320 Now, oh wow, no pressure there, right right. 4 00:00:10.359 --> 00:00:14.080 I mean, you've spent years, maybe decades even planning this 5 00:00:14.279 --> 00:00:18.399 entire infrastructure. You've got these incredibly anxious investors breathing down your. 6 00:00:18.280 --> 00:00:19.960 Neck as they do exactly. 7 00:00:20.079 --> 00:00:23.399 Yeah, and you have entire sectors of global communications depending 8 00:00:23.440 --> 00:00:26.600 on your network. So you finally do it. You successfully 9 00:00:26.719 --> 00:00:32.079 launch hundreds of these hyper soshisticated pieces of hardware into lower. 10 00:00:31.960 --> 00:00:34.240 Orbit, a massive achievement, honestly huge. 11 00:00:34.640 --> 00:00:37.200 And to keep them safe, you know, to make sure 12 00:00:37.240 --> 00:00:38.960 they don't literally just fall out of the sky and 13 00:00:39.000 --> 00:00:42.280 burn up. You are relying on the absolute gold standard 14 00:00:42.320 --> 00:00:44.560 of space weather forecasts. 15 00:00:44.119 --> 00:00:47.000 The best data money can buy, exactly. 16 00:00:46.880 --> 00:00:50.240 The best astrochrist models that human civilization has to offer. 17 00:00:50.880 --> 00:00:53.600 And these agencies, with billions in funding, they look you 18 00:00:53.640 --> 00:00:56.880 in the eye and tell you that the environment up there. 19 00:00:56.759 --> 00:00:58.600 Is going to be quiet, basically telling you the sun 20 00:00:58.679 --> 00:00:59.399 is taking a nap. 21 00:00:59.640 --> 00:01:02.280 Yeah, So you build your network for a calm environment, 22 00:01:02.320 --> 00:01:05.920 You optimize your fuel, you lower your orbits to reduce latency. 23 00:01:06.079 --> 00:01:09.239 You're feeling great, makes total sense based on the data, but. 24 00:01:09.280 --> 00:01:13.239 Then without warning, the upper atmosphere just suddenly boils up. 25 00:01:13.599 --> 00:01:15.879 What was supposed to be a near vacuum suddenly turns 26 00:01:15.920 --> 00:01:19.319 into this invisible, expanding wall of friction. 27 00:01:19.599 --> 00:01:21.519 It's like hitting a brick wall made of air. 28 00:01:21.840 --> 00:01:26.079 Yes, it grabs your satellites like they're driving into a swamp, 29 00:01:26.560 --> 00:01:28.560 and it just starts dragging them out of the. 30 00:01:28.519 --> 00:01:30.400 Sky, bowling them right down. 31 00:01:30.519 --> 00:01:32.319 And you just have to sit there and watch the 32 00:01:32.400 --> 00:01:35.719 telemetry on your screens as your life's work burns up 33 00:01:35.719 --> 00:01:37.319 in the atmosphere one by one. 34 00:01:37.519 --> 00:01:39.159 It sounds like a total nightmare. 35 00:01:39.319 --> 00:01:41.480 You'd think I'm pitching you the setup for a new 36 00:01:41.680 --> 00:01:45.560 sci fi disaster movie, right, But I'm not. That is 37 00:01:45.599 --> 00:01:48.159 not a hypothetical scenario. It actually happened recently. 38 00:01:48.200 --> 00:01:52.480 It did, and the implications of it are just absolutely staggering. 39 00:01:52.920 --> 00:01:55.079 I mean, it's the kind of event that forces a 40 00:01:55.120 --> 00:01:57.319 complete reckoning in a scientific. 41 00:01:56.719 --> 00:01:58.480 Field because they got it so wrong. 42 00:01:58.959 --> 00:02:02.359 Exactly when the physical reality of what is happening above 43 00:02:02.359 --> 00:02:05.680 our heads collides that violently with the supercomputer models we 44 00:02:05.760 --> 00:02:08.520 used to predict it. You can't just tweak a minor 45 00:02:08.639 --> 00:02:11.400 variable in an equation. You have to stop and ask 46 00:02:11.560 --> 00:02:15.759 if your entire fundamental understanding of the system is just well. 47 00:02:15.719 --> 00:02:20.759 Flawed, welcome to thrilling threads today. Our mission is to 48 00:02:20.879 --> 00:02:25.520 untangle a cosmic mystery that is right now actively threatening 49 00:02:25.759 --> 00:02:28.479 the modern interconnected way of life that you and I 50 00:02:28.560 --> 00:02:29.240 take for granted. 51 00:02:29.400 --> 00:02:32.120 We're looking directly at solar cycle twenty five, right. 52 00:02:32.319 --> 00:02:35.080 This is a current period of intense solar activity that 53 00:02:35.159 --> 00:02:39.400 didn't just surprise scientists, it fundamentally broke the predictive models 54 00:02:39.560 --> 00:02:41.639 of the world's top astrophysicists. 55 00:02:41.680 --> 00:02:42.719 It shattered them. Really. 56 00:02:42.879 --> 00:02:45.360 Yeah, So if you're listening to this on a smartphone 57 00:02:46.080 --> 00:02:49.879 or using GPS to navigate your car, you are currently 58 00:02:49.919 --> 00:02:52.439 relying on a fragile chain of technology that was built 59 00:02:52.479 --> 00:02:52.840 under a. 60 00:02:52.800 --> 00:02:55.199 False premise, a very expensive false premise. 61 00:02:55.240 --> 00:02:58.680 Seriously, think about humanity's reliance on these solar forecasts. Like, 62 00:02:59.159 --> 00:03:01.520 it's as if we decide to build a massive, intricate 63 00:03:01.599 --> 00:03:03.719 sand castle right on the edge of the beach. 64 00:03:03.759 --> 00:03:05.680 Okay, I like this analogy, and. 65 00:03:05.599 --> 00:03:07.960 We felt totally safe doing it because we checked the 66 00:03:08.000 --> 00:03:11.439 official tide chart, and the chart guaranteed the water wouldn't 67 00:03:11.439 --> 00:03:13.080 come anywhere near us for years. 68 00:03:13.360 --> 00:03:15.080 So you build it as close to the water as 69 00:03:15.080 --> 00:03:16.439 you want, right, But. 70 00:03:16.439 --> 00:03:19.719 Then we realize, right as the water starts rushing in 71 00:03:19.800 --> 00:03:22.439 and dissolving the walls of our castle, that the ocean 72 00:03:22.479 --> 00:03:25.080 is playing by a completely different set of rules. We 73 00:03:25.120 --> 00:03:28.520 built our entire digital sand castle based on a fundamentally 74 00:03:28.560 --> 00:03:30.319 flawed understanding of the tide. 75 00:03:30.439 --> 00:03:33.919 That is the perfect analogy for the vulnerability we've created 76 00:03:33.919 --> 00:03:37.000 for ourselves, because, you know, to understand the very real 77 00:03:37.080 --> 00:03:39.800 danger that is hovering above us right now, we can't 78 00:03:39.840 --> 00:03:42.039 just look at today's satellite data. We actually have to 79 00:03:42.080 --> 00:03:43.360 travel back a few years. 80 00:03:43.439 --> 00:03:44.120 How far back? 81 00:03:44.240 --> 00:03:46.479 We need to go back to an April twenty nineteen 82 00:03:46.560 --> 00:03:50.039 meeting where the scientific establishment made what turn out to 83 00:03:50.039 --> 00:03:53.319 be a dangerously confident prediction. Oh well, okay, and we're 84 00:03:53.319 --> 00:03:56.479 going to untack exactly how that prediction was made and 85 00:03:57.360 --> 00:04:02.319 why it failed so spectacularly, looking at the poststorm impact analyses, 86 00:04:02.719 --> 00:04:05.360 the fundamental physics of the solar dynamo, and some very 87 00:04:05.360 --> 00:04:08.639 recent sobering reviews from the exact scientists who had to 88 00:04:08.680 --> 00:04:09.560 admit they were wrong. 89 00:04:09.879 --> 00:04:12.599 Right, okay, so let's set the scene. Take us into 90 00:04:12.639 --> 00:04:15.319 that room. If I am a fly on the wall 91 00:04:15.400 --> 00:04:18.160 in April twenty nineteen, who am I? Looking at and 92 00:04:18.199 --> 00:04:19.600 what exactly are they trying to do? 93 00:04:19.759 --> 00:04:23.439 You are looking at a gathering of the absolute heavyweights 94 00:04:23.439 --> 00:04:26.560 in space weather. I mean you have top tier solar 95 00:04:26.560 --> 00:04:31.160 physicists from NOAA, from NASA, and from the International Space 96 00:04:31.240 --> 00:04:34.959 Environment Services, best of the best exactly, and they sat 97 00:04:35.000 --> 00:04:37.759 down to do what this specific field has been doing 98 00:04:37.879 --> 00:04:41.319 formally since nineteen eighty nine. They were going to predict 99 00:04:41.319 --> 00:04:44.000 the behavior, the timing, and the maximum strength of the 100 00:04:44.040 --> 00:04:46.560 next solar cycle, which was solar cycle twenty five. 101 00:04:46.759 --> 00:04:49.720 And just to clarify for everyone listening, a solar cycle 102 00:04:49.839 --> 00:04:52.199 is this roughly eleven year period where the Sun goes 103 00:04:52.199 --> 00:04:55.839 from being relatively calm to violently active and back to calm. 104 00:04:55.720 --> 00:04:57.600 Against right, like a heartbeat. But how do they. 105 00:04:57.480 --> 00:04:59.600 Actually measure that? Like, if I'm looking at the Sun 106 00:05:00.079 --> 00:05:03.399 through a heavily tinted solar filter, what am I actually counting? 107 00:05:03.399 --> 00:05:04.199 To give me a number? 108 00:05:04.279 --> 00:05:07.319 You are counting sunspots. The consensus prediction they were trying 109 00:05:07.319 --> 00:05:09.480 to arrive at is what we call the smooth. 110 00:05:09.279 --> 00:05:10.759 Sunspot number of spots. 111 00:05:10.959 --> 00:05:13.079 Okay, yeah, And this goes all the way back to 112 00:05:13.480 --> 00:05:17.600 scientists like Galileo and later Rudolph Wolf in the eighteen hundreds. 113 00:05:17.959 --> 00:05:20.639 They realized that the number of dark blemishes the sun 114 00:05:20.680 --> 00:05:24.319 spots on the Sun's surface directly correlates with its overall 115 00:05:24.439 --> 00:05:25.240 violent activity. 116 00:05:25.360 --> 00:05:26.920 So what is a sun spot? Exactly? 117 00:05:27.120 --> 00:05:30.560 Physically, a sunspot is basically a massive magnetic storm on 118 00:05:30.600 --> 00:05:33.600 the surface of the Sun. So a low sunspot number 119 00:05:33.680 --> 00:05:38.199 means a quiet sun. A high number means a very active, 120 00:05:38.439 --> 00:05:42.759 potentially dangerous star that is hurling radiation and plasma into 121 00:05:42.800 --> 00:05:43.639 the solar system. 122 00:05:43.720 --> 00:05:46.959 So it's essentially a weighted thermometer for the Sun's temper exactly. 123 00:05:47.040 --> 00:05:48.079 That's a great way to put it. 124 00:05:48.160 --> 00:05:50.759 And these physicists in twenty nineteen, they didn't just throw 125 00:05:50.839 --> 00:05:53.439 darts at a board, right, I mean, they brought an 126 00:05:53.480 --> 00:05:56.319 immense amount of computational power to this meeting to try 127 00:05:56.360 --> 00:05:58.120 and read that thermometer years in advance. 128 00:05:58.279 --> 00:06:02.959 Oh, unprecedented computationational power. They pulled close to fifty independent 129 00:06:03.000 --> 00:06:05.759 forecasts from specialized research groups all over the. 130 00:06:05.680 --> 00:06:06.959 Globe fifty wow. 131 00:06:07.120 --> 00:06:10.040 Yeah. And they ran all of this historical data through 132 00:06:10.240 --> 00:06:15.120 highly complex dynamo simulations, statistical models, advanced machine learning systems, 133 00:06:15.240 --> 00:06:18.639 the works, and they used various precursor methods that had, 134 00:06:18.680 --> 00:06:21.439 to their credit, worked reasonably well over the past few cycles. 135 00:06:21.720 --> 00:06:24.439 They were looking at the Sun's polar magnetic fields, they 136 00:06:24.439 --> 00:06:28.519 were looking at plasma flows. They were crunching decades of telemetry. 137 00:06:27.920 --> 00:06:29.839 So they have all the dating in the world, right. 138 00:06:30.199 --> 00:06:33.560 They synthesized all of this vast disparate data to arrive 139 00:06:33.639 --> 00:06:37.199 at a single unified consensus number for the upcoming cycle 140 00:06:37.240 --> 00:06:37.759 twenty five. 141 00:06:37.959 --> 00:06:40.839 Okay, so the drum roll moment, with all the smartest 142 00:06:40.839 --> 00:06:43.600 minds and the most powerful computers in the world, what 143 00:06:43.800 --> 00:06:45.600 was the definitive number they landed on. 144 00:06:45.920 --> 00:06:48.959 The official consensus prediction was that cycle twenty five would 145 00:06:48.959 --> 00:06:52.279 peak at a smooth subspot number of exactly one hundred. 146 00:06:52.000 --> 00:06:54.279 And fifteen one hundred and fifteen yep, and. 147 00:06:54.240 --> 00:06:57.079 They predicted this peak would arrive sometime around July twenty 148 00:06:57.120 --> 00:07:00.600 twenty five. They included error bars naturally, allowing for a 149 00:07:00.639 --> 00:07:02.920 maximum somewhere between one hundred and five and an absolute 150 00:07:02.959 --> 00:07:04.319 upper bound of one twenty five. 151 00:07:04.439 --> 00:07:06.759 Okay, so one twenty five is the absolute highest they 152 00:07:06.759 --> 00:07:07.879 thought it could possibly go. 153 00:07:07.920 --> 00:07:10.439 Exactly, and the timing of the peak they said could 154 00:07:10.519 --> 00:07:13.199 hit anywhere from November twenty twenty four to March twenty 155 00:07:13.199 --> 00:07:17.199 twenty six, but one hundred and fifteen was the central target, a. 156 00:07:17.199 --> 00:07:21.120 Peak of one hundred and fifteen. Now, for context, historically 157 00:07:21.160 --> 00:07:24.800 speaking over the centuries we've been tracking, this is one 158 00:07:24.879 --> 00:07:28.160 hundred and fifteen a frightening number or reassuring number. 159 00:07:28.240 --> 00:07:31.519 It is incredibly reassuring. It's actually quite low. Oh really, Yeah, 160 00:07:31.639 --> 00:07:34.439 the long term historical average for a solar cycle peak 161 00:07:34.519 --> 00:07:36.040 is around one hundred and seventy nine. 162 00:07:36.199 --> 00:07:38.519 Okay, so one hundred and fifteen is well below. 163 00:07:38.279 --> 00:07:41.000 Outage, way below. What the panel was essentially saying was 164 00:07:41.040 --> 00:07:43.160 that cycle twenty five was going to be a near 165 00:07:43.279 --> 00:07:46.639 twin of the cycle that preceded it. Cycle twenty four 166 00:07:46.720 --> 00:07:49.199 was actually the weakest solar cycle in one hundred years. 167 00:07:49.560 --> 00:07:51.639 It peaked at a sunspot number of just one hundred 168 00:07:51.639 --> 00:07:52.160 and sixteen. 169 00:07:52.279 --> 00:07:54.319 Wait, let me make sure I'm following the logic here. 170 00:07:54.639 --> 00:07:57.639 The supercomputers looked at the data and concluded the last 171 00:07:57.639 --> 00:08:00.680 cycle was historically weak, therefore this next side will also 172 00:08:00.720 --> 00:08:01.680 be historically weak. 173 00:08:01.920 --> 00:08:03.319 In a nutshell, yes. 174 00:08:03.199 --> 00:08:05.240 It feels a bit like predicting the weather by just 175 00:08:05.240 --> 00:08:08.399 saying tomorrow will be exactly like yesterday. Was there deeper 176 00:08:08.399 --> 00:08:09.519 physics backing that up? 177 00:08:09.600 --> 00:08:11.959 There was? Yeah, and it was heavily supported by the 178 00:08:12.000 --> 00:08:14.959 literature at the time. There was a highly influential twenty 179 00:08:15.000 --> 00:08:19.480 eighteen paper published in Nature Communications by researchers Perniccobamic and 180 00:08:19.560 --> 00:08:23.160 Debien du Nandi, and their dynamo based prediction fed directly 181 00:08:23.199 --> 00:08:27.839 into the panel's consensus. Their incredibly complex models projected that 182 00:08:27.879 --> 00:08:31.480 cycle twenty five would indeed be very weak, peaking around 183 00:08:31.519 --> 00:08:33.039 twenty twenty four, give or take. 184 00:08:32.919 --> 00:08:34.720 A year, so they had the math to back up 185 00:08:34.759 --> 00:08:35.960 the assumption exactly. 186 00:08:36.399 --> 00:08:39.399 So the official unified forecast delivered to the world was 187 00:08:39.440 --> 00:08:43.279 basically expect a quiet cycle. The coast is clear. Keep 188 00:08:43.320 --> 00:08:44.559 launching your satellites. 189 00:08:44.840 --> 00:08:47.240 So we have all the agencies, all the supercomputers, all 190 00:08:47.240 --> 00:08:49.679 the peer reviewed papers pointing in the exact same direction. 191 00:08:50.000 --> 00:08:53.279 Don't worry. The sun has taken a nap. And that 192 00:08:53.440 --> 00:08:56.039 comforting picture. That sand castle we built on the beach, 193 00:08:56.480 --> 00:08:58.200 it actually stood for a little while, didn't it. The 194 00:08:58.200 --> 00:08:59.519 beginning of the cycle looked normal. 195 00:08:59.639 --> 00:09:02.720 It held up for about three years. The early stages 196 00:09:02.759 --> 00:09:07.320 of a solar cycle are notoriously slow and difficult to 197 00:09:07.360 --> 00:09:10.120 distinguish from one another, but by the time we crossed 198 00:09:10.159 --> 00:09:12.919 into twenty twenty one and early twenty twenty two, and 199 00:09:12.960 --> 00:09:17.519 the daily observations started accumulating. A creeping sense of unease 200 00:09:17.720 --> 00:09:20.000 started washing over the space weather community. 201 00:09:20.120 --> 00:09:21.960 The data wasn't matching the model. 202 00:09:21.960 --> 00:09:22.759 Not at all. 203 00:09:22.879 --> 00:09:25.879 It became clear that something was fundamentally off. The daily 204 00:09:26.000 --> 00:09:29.159 sunspot counts were consistently running ahead of where the official 205 00:09:29.200 --> 00:09:32.519 panel said they should be. It wasn't a sudden explosion. 206 00:09:32.960 --> 00:09:37.960 It was this incredibly consistent, stubborn upward trend. 207 00:09:38.320 --> 00:09:41.159 It's like tracking a hurricane on a radar that is 208 00:09:41.279 --> 00:09:44.759 just slightly off its predicted path, but instead of correcting 209 00:09:44.840 --> 00:09:47.039 back to the line, it just keeps drifting further and 210 00:09:47.080 --> 00:09:50.879 further away, growing larger than the model said was thermodynamically possible. 211 00:09:50.960 --> 00:09:53.279 That's a really great way to visualize it. And by 212 00:09:53.360 --> 00:09:57.200 January twenty twenty three, the data was openly defying the models. 213 00:09:57.240 --> 00:09:59.679 It wasn't just a minor statistical anomaly anymore. 214 00:09:59.759 --> 00:10:01.440 It was trend, a huge one. 215 00:10:01.559 --> 00:10:04.279 The daily sunspot counts for cycle twenty five had already 216 00:10:04.279 --> 00:10:06.759 overtaken cycle twenty four at the equivalent point in its 217 00:10:06.799 --> 00:10:08.440 progression by roughly twelve percent. 218 00:10:08.559 --> 00:10:08.960 Oh wow. 219 00:10:09.039 --> 00:10:12.600 Yeah, the Sun was actively producing more spots, more complex 220 00:10:12.679 --> 00:10:16.799 magnetic regions, more massive flares than the consensus had penciled in, 221 00:10:17.240 --> 00:10:19.919 and scientists were sitting in their offices watching the reality 222 00:10:19.919 --> 00:10:23.799 curve completely divorce itself from their prediction curve in real time. 223 00:10:24.120 --> 00:10:26.919 And it didn't just divorce itself, it shattered the ceiling 224 00:10:26.960 --> 00:10:30.559 completely because fast forward to August twenty twenty four, the 225 00:10:30.679 --> 00:10:35.000 thirteen month smooth sunspot number didn't just hit that predicted 226 00:10:35.039 --> 00:10:38.000 one fifteen. It hit one fifty six point seven. 227 00:10:38.240 --> 00:10:41.600 Yes, and we really need to pause and recognize the 228 00:10:41.639 --> 00:10:44.960 magnitude of that miss. That figure didn't just miss the bullseye. 229 00:10:45.000 --> 00:10:47.120 It didn't even land on the dartboard. It was off 230 00:10:47.120 --> 00:10:50.279 the charts, completely outside the maximum uncertainty range of the 231 00:10:50.279 --> 00:10:54.440 original forecast. Remember, their absolute worst case upper bound was 232 00:10:54.440 --> 00:10:57.080 one hundred and twenty five. One hundred and fifty six 233 00:10:57.120 --> 00:10:59.799 point seven obliterates that. And not only was the cycle 234 00:11:00.039 --> 00:11:02.799 vastly stronger, but the peak itself arrived almost a full 235 00:11:02.879 --> 00:11:03.879 year ahead of schedule. 236 00:11:04.200 --> 00:11:06.840 So they were fundamentally wrong on the amplitude and they 237 00:11:06.840 --> 00:11:08.279 were fundamentally wrong on the timing. 238 00:11:08.519 --> 00:11:12.759 Essentially. Yes, Mark Meisch, the solar cycle lead at the SWPC, 239 00:11:13.279 --> 00:11:17.279 came out and issued a revised experimental forecast effectively walking 240 00:11:17.360 --> 00:11:19.919 back the twenty nineteen panel prediction publicly. 241 00:11:20.159 --> 00:11:20.519 Ouch. 242 00:11:21.360 --> 00:11:23.960 Yeah, he had to be unusually blunt. He told the 243 00:11:24.000 --> 00:11:26.399 people who rely on these forecasts to plan their multi 244 00:11:26.399 --> 00:11:29.840 billion dollar operations for years ahead. The grid managers, the 245 00:11:29.879 --> 00:11:33.159 satellite operators, the global airlines. He told them the twenty 246 00:11:33.240 --> 00:11:37.360 nineteen forecast was officially no longer reliable. The new reality 247 00:11:37.399 --> 00:11:40.440 called for a much quicker rise to a significantly higher peak. 248 00:11:40.600 --> 00:11:42.759 Okay, here's where I have to step in and push 249 00:11:42.799 --> 00:11:45.639 back on behalf of everyone listening, because I'm putting myself 250 00:11:45.639 --> 00:11:48.679 in the shoes of a logistics manager or a satellite engineer. 251 00:11:48.799 --> 00:11:48.919 Right. 252 00:11:49.080 --> 00:11:51.559 We have the most advanced supercomputers on the planet. We 253 00:11:51.600 --> 00:11:54.919 have generations of astrophysics data. We have machine learning algorithms 254 00:11:54.919 --> 00:11:57.360 that can be grand masters at chess. How on Earth 255 00:11:57.399 --> 00:11:59.399 you miss a target by forty percent? Is our data 256 00:11:59.480 --> 00:12:02.480 just terrible or is the actual math governing the Sun 257 00:12:03.000 --> 00:12:04.039 fundamentally broken? 258 00:12:04.320 --> 00:12:08.159 That is the exact agonizing question that the entire field 259 00:12:08.200 --> 00:12:10.559 of solar physics was forced to ask themselves in the 260 00:12:10.559 --> 00:12:13.120 wake of this failure. Everyone knew the models had failed. 261 00:12:13.120 --> 00:12:16.759 I mean, the data was undeniable, right, The terrifying question 262 00:12:16.879 --> 00:12:21.200 was why. For forty years, the prevailing belief, the paradigm 263 00:12:21.200 --> 00:12:24.039 of the entire field, was that the solar dynamo, the 264 00:12:24.039 --> 00:12:26.559 internal engine of the Sun, was something you could, in 265 00:12:26.600 --> 00:12:29.480 principle model completely. 266 00:12:29.039 --> 00:12:31.240 Which is a math problem to solve exactly. 267 00:12:31.320 --> 00:12:34.159 The assumption was simply a matter of scale. If you 268 00:12:34.399 --> 00:12:37.799 just got better data, higher resolution telescopes, and faster computers, 269 00:12:38.039 --> 00:12:41.600 you could eventually predict cycle by cycle with perfect accuracy. 270 00:12:41.759 --> 00:12:42.399 But they couldn't. 271 00:12:42.559 --> 00:12:45.879 No, no, missing a target by forty percent after throwing 272 00:12:45.960 --> 00:12:48.440 everything you have at it forces you to ask if 273 00:12:48.440 --> 00:12:51.639 that kind of prediction is even physically possible, and to 274 00:12:51.679 --> 00:12:53.879 answer your question about whether the math is broken. We 275 00:12:53.960 --> 00:12:56.120 can't just look at the sun spots on the surface. 276 00:12:56.360 --> 00:12:58.840 We have to crack open the Sun itself. We have 277 00:12:58.919 --> 00:13:00.320 to look at its internal engine. 278 00:13:00.399 --> 00:13:02.559 Let's do it. Take us under the hood, what is 279 00:13:02.639 --> 00:13:04.240 actually driving this machine? 280 00:13:04.399 --> 00:13:06.720 To understand the engine, we have to look underneath the 281 00:13:06.799 --> 00:13:09.399 visible surface of the Sun into a region that makes 282 00:13:09.480 --> 00:13:11.399 up roughly the outer thirty percent of the star. 283 00:13:11.519 --> 00:13:13.279 Okay, the outer thirty percent, right. 284 00:13:13.399 --> 00:13:16.720 This is the convection zone. It is an incredibly violent 285 00:13:16.879 --> 00:13:21.399 churning layer of hot ionized gas or plasma. You have 286 00:13:21.720 --> 00:13:24.799 vast currents of this material constantly boiling up from the 287 00:13:24.840 --> 00:13:28.799 interior and sinking back down. Now, the Sun spins on 288 00:13:28.879 --> 00:13:31.279 its axis, just like the Earth does. But here is 289 00:13:31.320 --> 00:13:35.360 the critical difference that drives the entire system. The Sun 290 00:13:35.440 --> 00:13:37.799 does not spin as a solid. 291 00:13:37.399 --> 00:13:39.919 Object, right, because it's not a rigid billiard ball. It's 292 00:13:39.960 --> 00:13:43.000 a massive fluid ball of gas and plasma. 293 00:13:43.000 --> 00:13:46.679 Precisely because it's fluid, the equator of the Sun actually 294 00:13:46.799 --> 00:13:49.200 rotates significantly faster than the poles do. 295 00:13:49.440 --> 00:13:51.679 Wait, really, the middle spins faster than the top. 296 00:13:51.840 --> 00:13:54.600 Yes, it takes the equator about twenty five days to 297 00:13:54.600 --> 00:13:57.639 complete one rotation, but it takes the poles more than 298 00:13:57.639 --> 00:13:58.519 thirty four days. 299 00:13:58.559 --> 00:13:59.519 That's a huge difference. 300 00:13:59.600 --> 00:13:59.879 It is. 301 00:14:00.279 --> 00:14:02.879 Furthermore, the deep interior of the Sun rotates at a 302 00:14:02.879 --> 00:14:07.519 completely different, more uniform speed than the exterior convection zone. 303 00:14:07.600 --> 00:14:10.960 This massive disparity in speeds is called differential rotation. 304 00:14:11.320 --> 00:14:14.279 Okay, so you have different latitudes and different depths of 305 00:14:14.320 --> 00:14:17.519 the Sun, all spinning at different speeds, constantly slipping and 306 00:14:17.519 --> 00:14:18.600 grinding past each other. 307 00:14:18.799 --> 00:14:22.480 Yes, and the friction from that slipping is what generates 308 00:14:22.519 --> 00:14:26.279 the danger. Because this plasma isn't just normal gas, it 309 00:14:26.360 --> 00:14:31.360 is highly magnetized. This shearing motion literally grabs the magnetic 310 00:14:31.399 --> 00:14:34.399 field lines inside the star and drags. 311 00:14:34.000 --> 00:14:35.799 Them like physical strings being pulled. 312 00:14:35.840 --> 00:14:39.440 Exactly at the start of a quiet period, the magnetic 313 00:14:39.480 --> 00:14:42.759 field starts off in a relatively simple north south alignment, 314 00:14:42.919 --> 00:14:46.039 pointing from pole to pole, much like Earth's magnetic field. 315 00:14:46.360 --> 00:14:49.440 Physicists call this the poloidal field. The boidal got it, 316 00:14:49.519 --> 00:14:54.240 But that differential rotation, that constant unequal shearing takes those 317 00:14:54.399 --> 00:14:58.000 neat north south lines and begins to stretch them, wrap them, 318 00:14:58.360 --> 00:15:01.360 amplify them, and twist them into dense east west loops 319 00:15:01.360 --> 00:15:05.519 that wrap tightly around the Sun's equator. This twisted, compressed 320 00:15:05.600 --> 00:15:08.159 east west field is called the toroidal field. 321 00:15:08.679 --> 00:15:11.200 I love this analogy from some of the foundational research. 322 00:15:11.480 --> 00:15:14.039 It's like taking a giant spinning ball and wrapping massive 323 00:15:14.080 --> 00:15:16.080 rubber bands around it from pole to pole. Ye, But 324 00:15:16.200 --> 00:15:18.759 because the middle of the ball is spinning faster than 325 00:15:18.759 --> 00:15:21.919 the top and bottom, the rubber bands get dragged sideways. 326 00:15:22.159 --> 00:15:24.120 You keep spinning the ball, and the rubber bands get 327 00:15:24.159 --> 00:15:26.840 tighter and tighter and more twisted upon themselves, until the 328 00:15:26.919 --> 00:15:30.320 tension is so immense that eventually they have to snap outward. 329 00:15:30.600 --> 00:15:33.879 That is exactly what happens. And when those incredibly tense 330 00:15:34.000 --> 00:15:37.840 magnetic rubber bands snap, they don't just disappear. They push 331 00:15:37.960 --> 00:15:41.519 violently outward through the surface of the Sun. Those twisted 332 00:15:41.559 --> 00:15:45.720 loops of concentrated magnetic energy rising through the photosphere. That 333 00:15:45.879 --> 00:15:47.559 is what a sunspot actually is. 334 00:15:47.759 --> 00:15:48.399 Mind blowing. 335 00:15:48.639 --> 00:15:51.360 They aren't just random dark blotches on a telescope lens. 336 00:15:51.480 --> 00:15:56.320 They are the visible physical signatures of massive magnetic flux 337 00:15:56.360 --> 00:15:59.879 tubes breaking through the surface. And crucially, because they are 338 00:16:00.080 --> 00:16:02.879 loops of a continuous field breaking the surface and returning 339 00:16:02.919 --> 00:16:06.240 back down, they tend to appear in tilted pairs, with 340 00:16:06.320 --> 00:16:09.919 a leading spot and a following spot of opposite magnetic polarity. 341 00:16:10.240 --> 00:16:14.000 So a sunspot is literally the Sun's internal magnetic rubber 342 00:16:14.039 --> 00:16:17.759 band snapping under immense tension and bursting out into space. 343 00:16:18.639 --> 00:16:22.240 That is terrifying and totally awesome to visualize. But how 344 00:16:22.240 --> 00:16:25.480 does that mechanism lead to a predictive model. If things 345 00:16:25.519 --> 00:16:28.440 are just snapping randomly, where does the pattern come from? 346 00:16:28.480 --> 00:16:31.000 Where does the positive feedback loop that scientists tried to 347 00:16:31.039 --> 00:16:31.799 track come in? 348 00:16:32.440 --> 00:16:35.799 This brings us to a massive theoretical breakthrough from the 349 00:16:35.879 --> 00:16:40.080 nineteen sixties, discovered by physicists Horace Babcock and Robert Lieton. 350 00:16:40.200 --> 00:16:41.120 Okay, what did they find? 351 00:16:41.480 --> 00:16:45.120 They finally figured out how the solar cycle regenerates itself, 352 00:16:45.480 --> 00:16:49.440 how the machine resets. When those tilted sunspot pairs eventually 353 00:16:49.480 --> 00:16:53.679 decay and fade away, they do so asymmetrically. That asymmetry 354 00:16:53.759 --> 00:16:57.480 leaves behind a small residual magnetic field on the surface, like. 355 00:16:57.480 --> 00:16:59.879 Leaving a footprint behind in the mud. After the storm. 356 00:16:59.639 --> 00:17:02.200 Passes exactly and over the course of an eleven year 357 00:17:02.240 --> 00:17:06.480 cycle across thousands and thousands of sunspot groups emerging and decaying, 358 00:17:06.839 --> 00:17:09.720 those residual magnetic footprints begin to add up. But they 359 00:17:09.720 --> 00:17:13.039 don't stay at the equator. Inside the sun, there are 360 00:17:13.240 --> 00:17:18.000 very slow moving deep plasma flows called the meridunal circulation. 361 00:17:18.599 --> 00:17:21.759 Think of it like a giant planetary scale conveyor belt. 362 00:17:21.839 --> 00:17:22.640 A conveyor belt. 363 00:17:22.799 --> 00:17:27.039 Yes, this conveyor belt slowly carries those leftover magnetic footprints 364 00:17:27.039 --> 00:17:30.039 from the equator all the way back up toward the poles, 365 00:17:30.680 --> 00:17:33.319 and as they accumulate at the poles over years, they 366 00:17:33.319 --> 00:17:35.960 actually cancel out the old polar field and build up 367 00:17:36.000 --> 00:17:39.400 the new poloidal field. The north south field, which. 368 00:17:39.279 --> 00:17:42.480 If I'm following the physics, becomes the fresh north south 369 00:17:42.559 --> 00:17:45.319 rubber band, the seed for the next cycle to start 370 00:17:45.319 --> 00:17:46.319 twisting all over again. 371 00:17:46.440 --> 00:17:49.480 Yes, you've got it. This entire mechanism is known as 372 00:17:49.519 --> 00:17:53.079 the Babcock Laton process. It is a massive positive feedback 373 00:17:53.119 --> 00:17:56.079 loop with a built in delay. Each cycle literally plants 374 00:17:56.119 --> 00:17:57.039 the magnetic. 375 00:17:56.680 --> 00:17:58.319 Seed for the next Oh, that's fascinating. 376 00:17:58.559 --> 00:18:00.920 And the lag time, the years it takes between the 377 00:18:00.960 --> 00:18:03.240 sowing of that seed at the poles and the harvest 378 00:18:03.240 --> 00:18:07.039 of the next cycle sunspots, is what gave forecasters their hope. 379 00:18:07.480 --> 00:18:11.160 It gave them a seemingly reliable precursor. The logic they 380 00:18:11.200 --> 00:18:14.319 built their supercomputer models on was simple. If you measure 381 00:18:14.319 --> 00:18:16.720 the polar magnetic field at the very end of a cycle, 382 00:18:16.960 --> 00:18:19.119 and that field is weak, then the seed for the 383 00:18:19.160 --> 00:18:22.559 next cycle is weak. Therefore the next cycle must be weak. 384 00:18:22.880 --> 00:18:25.279 And the polar field at the end of cycle twenty four, 385 00:18:25.759 --> 00:18:28.240 right before cycle twenty five began, was. 386 00:18:28.200 --> 00:18:32.839 Weak, It was historically weak. That single overarching observation is 387 00:18:32.880 --> 00:18:36.599 what drove almost all of the twenty nineteen panel's confidence 388 00:18:36.680 --> 00:18:40.160 in forecasting a quiet cycle twenty five. The seed was small, 389 00:18:40.240 --> 00:18:41.720 so the tree had to be small, but. 390 00:18:41.680 --> 00:18:44.920 Then cycle twenty five ran forty percent stronger. So if 391 00:18:44.920 --> 00:18:47.400 the seed was weak, how did the plant grow so massive. 392 00:18:48.039 --> 00:18:50.920 If the Babcock Layton theory is right, a weak seed 393 00:18:50.920 --> 00:18:53.279 shouldn't be able to produce a monster cycle. Is the 394 00:18:53.279 --> 00:18:53.960 theory wrong. 395 00:18:54.119 --> 00:18:56.720 The theory isn't completely wrong, but it is missing something 396 00:18:56.799 --> 00:19:00.720 massive which the intrinsic inescapable noise of the system. To 397 00:19:00.799 --> 00:19:03.079 understand this, we have to look at the findings from 398 00:19:03.240 --> 00:19:06.759 Pargov Karak's twenty twenty six review on the solar dynamo 399 00:19:07.079 --> 00:19:09.720 and Mark Mische's twenty twenty five review in the journal 400 00:19:09.799 --> 00:19:13.960 Space Weather. What the field of astrophysics is now reluctantly 401 00:19:14.079 --> 00:19:18.400