Speaker 1: What is up, fellow Sikos. Per the screen, I am
a certified fantabulous grand Views and I am joined by
my shit stain of a co host, Dan Favali. We're
here for our sophomore. We haven't done a stock report
on sophomore this year. We did some rookie stuff and
they're always gonna come up with awards. There's no award
for a sophomore, which I'd be open to there being
like Sophomore of the Year award. By the way, Dan,
but we're just here where the stock report will give
our verdicts stock up, stock down. But first and foremost
the most important question, and you don't get asked. You
don't get asked this nearly enough to open the show, Dan,
how are you doing? Well?
Speaker 2: Here's the problem. I feel like you've really overstepped because
it's my job if I'm Dan today, which the handle
at the bottom of the screen says, I am to
ask you how you're doing, and then it's on. It's
in coming on you to try to come up with
something interesting or pithy or vampy so that you, meaning me,
who's you can like do whatever I need to do
to prep the next section of the pod. So how's
it feel?
Speaker 1: How's what feel being asked how you're doing? So here's
how I'm doing. Now, I have to give you the
anecdote that that you would normally give me. I have.
I have a gym complaint. Let's open up. Let's open
up with this I have. I'm all for people going
to the gym. I love being at the gym, and
I understand like when you go to a commercial gym,
you have to you know, be swift with right. I
have to change my plan. You can't get married to
a machine unless you're gonna go at like psychotic times
like four in the morning. I don't like when people
come up to me when it's busy, and I'm always
very nice and I'll let people work in, but like
if I'm mid rep in my set, like that's probably
not the time to ask if you can use my machine,
Like when I'm in the middle of pushing and like
I'm not lifting it's me so I'm not like you know,
benching or like using machine benching like three hundred plus pounds,
but like the amount of times where it's like people
have come up and like I'm in the middle like
a set and they're like tapping me on the shoulder
and my headphones are in to just a tiny complaint,
I'm all again, there's the whole I know people get
frustrated around January, New Year, New Me, influx of enrollees,
but it's become just I just don't get it.
Speaker 2: That feels like a pretty basic etiquette thing, Like even
if you're not if it's your first day on January
second or whatever, it feels like you should just know
not to like take thirty more seconds and wait for
the person. I mean, like this is that's a valid
complaint that you're making.
Speaker 1: And it's also the reason I'm okay saying it is
because the people who are doing it look exactly like
you expect them to look like they're not the first
time people at the gym, because I think those people
are probably for the most part, more they're gonna overthink
things and like give it more forethought than people who
just assume that their worked out their lift is more
important than yours because of whatever goal they might have
in mind. So take make of that what you will.
With these people, for generally speaking, look and are wearing
exactly what you would expect them to look and war.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean I feel like you're being bullied and
you should lodge a complaint.
Speaker 1: I I'm gonna go to the gym desk and tattletown everything.
He can't. They came up in osmad set and they
were just like they were like, are you done yet?
How are you doing?
Speaker 2: I'm doing great? Uh. The weather finally, like I don't
really have an anecdote. I enjoyed yours. The weather's good
now like the sun has been out, We're gonna get
some seventy degree days. Spring training has started, which is
always like it coincides with the weather. Uh, and that
just like my mood get. I don't think I have
seasonal effective disorder, but like when the sun starts to
finally come out, like towards the end of February, I
really do like get a spike in mood that kind
of persists like through August. So I like, I don't know.
I think I'm an undiagnosed seasonal effective disorder sufferer that
is really on the.
Speaker 1: Upswing right now, Which is funny because I have a
scouting report of you as a co host in my
Google spreadsheet. It's like Grant Excellent podcast with late February
through early August.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we all have our heart and cold months. You
just gotta find You got to catch me at the
right time.
Speaker 1: I should have known the weather was turning when you
logged on. It didn't look absolutely miserable to be here.
Speaker 2: Natural light coming through the window behind me. That's a
huge That's hasn't been the case for like months.
Speaker 1: I love it. The rookie stock report though, excuse me,
the sophomore stock report though, grant any, Like, how do
you evaluate sophomores, like when you're looking at, oh am
I investing more stock in them? Or like our stock
up stock down? Like what is your approach when the
baseline is just that one year of basketball we've seen.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I definitely found myself trying a little harder because
with rookies, if we're you know, how do they look
three months into their careers or whatever, we almost just
stop ourselves and say, like it's too early to decide
almost anything. And I wanted to to do it differently
with sophomores because we have a full year and now,
you know, over half of a second. And I still
caught myself like just being way too declarative, like, oh
this guy's never gonna do X or because this guy
can't do why right now? His ceiling is here, Like
I definitely still fall into that. So I think the
thing to remember here for listeners and really talking to
ourselves is that it's still some of these guys are
like twenty some just turn twenty one. It's still possible
that they surprise us with growth trajectories that are just
like not even remotely foreseeable right now. At the same time,
I think we do need to like flag some stuff
if there are certain deficiencies or certain like things guys
are excelling at. But I'm gonna try really hard to
keep in mind that this is still less than two
years of experience and we can't like shut the door
on certain things, even though I know I'm gonna slip
into that.
Speaker 1: And it also it tends to be more of a
because the way we're gonna structure this is there's like
a handful of sophomores that we just really wanted to
zero going on, and then we'll go through like other
briefer ones. But it tends to be on the ones
that you're focusing on for the most part. If he's
like more of a positive exercise. And this is also
for me. It's you know how Brian Windhors calls it
that first Max, the fun Max. These are like the
fun evaluations because I feel like for rookie and sophomores,
you have the license to just really focus on the
eye test or like the vibes or what you actually
think rather than you know, like he's only shooting thirty
nine percent on floaters, but I still believe in it,
And you can't really do that with someone who's been
in the league for like four or five.
Speaker 2: Years totally, you're still you're still talking about It's just
like draft evaluations, where it's like you get numbers here
and you get eye tests there, and you can just
get away with caring about the eye test more the
younger player is.
Speaker 1: We begin with probably the worst sophomore of this class,
Victor women Yama. He will not be playing again this season,
though that's a bummer because of deep vein thrombosis in
his right shoulder, which, just to echo the Spurs believe
that this is a one off thing, and you know,
here's hoping, Uh, I don't. I don't have anything to
add about his defense, so like I don't want to
spend a ton of time, but he's like equal parts
just disruptor, the terrent runaway Defensive Player of the Year.
I will say before kind of get into what I've
noticed on offense from him this year, did you kind
of see Grant in the aftermath of now we know
he's not gonna be eligible to win Defensive Player of
the Year, there was some pretzel twisting or just questionable
framing of he never deserved to win it, like this
is just the media pushing. Look at where the Spurs
rank defensively in points loud per possession. I'm just like,
I don't know how you watch what like or the
watch Victor women Yama and think he's only his blocks.
Speaker 2: On the Yeah, you know, he's absolutely if what if
he were what if he were only his blocks? Even
then he's still better at that than anybody, And it's
not like they're empty because you can cite all the
other stats of like feel will, percentage defense at the rim.
The thing that gets tricky, I think, and maybe this
is where that pushback came from, is like, unless you're
really watching every possession, you don't get the sense of
like just how much he he deters like how many
reconsiderations he forces, Like how many types of shots just
are no longer like allowed to take place just because
he's there, Like that's there's probably some catch all thing
that's gonna that covers that somewhere. But like, I really
do think you're not this is man. It's order to
take like a minute into this for to get real
high and mighty, but like you're just not paying attention.
If if you think he's just his blocks, like that's
that's pretty straightforward.
Speaker 1: That's a hot take. Yeah, but I agree with it.
The offense, I think he's made a lot of strides there,
and I think if you you dig into something like
the fact that he increased his rim finishing from seventy
percent to seventy six percent is just stupid. I mean,
he's seven four, seven three whatever, seven eight at this
point whatever, same height as Big Bird. I think, right,
he's seven eight. That is just it's incredible. I'd liked
you look at his pull up efficiency that is actually
down from last year, but he's increased his efficiency on
above the break threes and range shots in general. So
when you're just looking at all jumpers last year, his
effective field goal percentage which for anyone who might not know,
that measures two and three point efficiency together. So his
effective field goal percentage on all jumpers last year as
a rookie forty three point three. As a sophomore, that's
up the forty nine point two. So that's kind of
just a pretty big increase. And I think some people
will always have a problem with his shot selection or
the fact that maybe he's not operating in the interior more.
I don't. I think that this is someone who, for
the most part, is just like a seven and a
half foot wing basically. But to that end I mentioned
the rim finishing has gotten better. I think the screening
from him has gotten better. And it's not like maybe
there is Esthetically it doesn't look like there's this exponential
increase in strength, but the fact that he's able to
do that when his frame is not really like kind
of the separation he can create or not being afraid
to connect on these screens. I think that's gotten better
from him. And I honestly think maybe where I feel
where he's shown the most improvement, and I'm curious if
you agree, is just the quality of his passes, And
I don't that might be the game that I feel
like the part of his game that flies under the
radar the most, he is more poised in traffic, He's
more deliberate when he's getting ball screens and coming around them.
It feels like it doesn't feel like I would argue
that he definitely does have better circular vision of the
entire floor when he's in the middle of it or
when he's at a standstill than he did last year.
Just a lot more smarter live dribble passes. Feels like
maybe he's not trying the like the more bombastic ones,
which is fine, but like he can still throw those.
The turnovers are down, the turnover percentages down, he can
still sort of dribble just like or spin right into
the help, and that's how he'll get a lot of
his turnovers. I think that could potentially always be a
quote unquote issue for him, just because I've compared it
to this. He is so tall, it's like me or
you trying to dribble a tennis ball. So it's like
it's just like, so the size of the ball might
be offer him, but then just the distance that needs
to travel from the floor to his let's say, his waist,
it's just like it's so ridiculous that there's always maybe
gonna be some turnover issues there. But I think ultimately
the fact that he feels more well rounded offensively is
like a really big deal and there is I'll close here.
He is just worth any sort of adjective that you
think is too hyperbolic for Victor Womenyama and his future
is just not do.
Speaker 2: You think so? Part of the appeal of Chris Paul
being there this year was that, well, okay, whom Mignon
is gonna get, however many spoon fed lobs or like
things will just be simpler for him. This is to me, like,
would you agree that among the many you know, bummers
of not seeing him down the stretch of this year
is like, well, what does he look like with the
point guard like fox? That isn't just the like every
single walk it up like run the play like like
that that is you know, more of it cuts off
the ball, like really played off the bonus and some
of their best sets like really kind of empowered the
big to be more of a facilitator. Like do you
think that ultimately when bin Yama is gonna be that tight?
Like you can't. I guess you can't be everything, but
it looks like he's definitely just the floor stretcher that's
gonna mess defenses up because he's gonna shoot ten threes
a game or whatever and have to be guarded by
a big But do you see enough of the passing
development you're talking about to envision him as like someone
that's getting it at the elbow and is like, you know,
dumping it down or like having guards run off of him,
or or like playing that kind of role too. Because
the height there, we see jokicch use it to his advantage.
Do you just you have passing angles that other guys
don't just because you're over the top of everything. Do
you think that might be part of his game based
on this year?
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's ever gonna to me. I
don't know if it's gonna be a huge part. I
wonder if if he was surrounded by maybe better spacing
in general, would that be something that they kind of
featured him more of. I guess he's capable of doing it.
Would you worry though about we're gonna use him kind
of like Yokic and he's not built like Jokic to
have like that same let's say strength level or girth
or whatever. Is that something you even want to see
him doing in like high volume?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think probably not as like a first choice.
I think your first choice is you do just treat
him like a wing that sort of always is guarded
by a mismatch because you put a conventional big on
him and in space. I think that's a tough ask
as he gets, you know, quicker and stronger, but like
you really I think you really could station him closer
to the basket and like maybe it's a I guess
that's all just to say that, like we saw one
new dimension of like, Okay, I'm pretty sure he can
just be a high volume three point threat. That's but
I don't feel like that's like, oh, that's definitely what
he's going to be offensively going forward. I think like
that can be it, but I still think what he
showed this year, I agree the passing vision is like
it's legit. It might just be something where depending on
the matchup, he can be the most devas dating spacer
or the most devastating elbow hub or the most like
you name it. I think the options have only broadened.
I think as as as he's you know, I guess
concluded his second.
Speaker 1: Year what would be interesting there too? And I was
just looking his like he does rate better in the
post this year than he did last year, but it's
just still not like a monster part of his game.
And he's, by the way, the big thing. And I
like because I focus on the jump shot stuff, like
his self created shot making efficiency is just way higher
than it was last year too. But you know what's
interesting is could you envision him being and like this
might be a better when you're looking at the body
type comp of how we saw porzingis more so like
sometimes in Boston but a lot of the times in Washington,
Like maybe he's not. I think he's a better passer
than prezingis, so he could do that, but like you're
stationing him higher up where maybe it's less physical, and
like if he's just someone who could catch it turn
around and like just I mean he can definitely shoot
over anybody that might if you're looking for more it's
not even traditional stuff, but if you're looking for more
just kind of those block ish touches, that might be
a way to the figure to use him there.
Speaker 2: And I think like two things that I believe will
come for him. Are like Porzingis actually Porzingis is lean
but like he's got a strong base, like he's harder
to move. And the other thing is his foul drawing
craft for a big guy is like way up there,
because that that's one of the keys to Porzingis's you know,
mismatched domination. Is he just like the second he feels
the hand on the arm, he rips through and goes
up and he's he's drawing free throws on like what
would be thirteen foot shot attempts. Like Wemby can absolutely
add both of those things. So yeah, I can see
if you don't want him to get beat up. The
one the one thing I don't want really for him
is like you're dumping it into him on the block,
Like that's the least interesting way to use him.
Speaker 1: And do you could you mentioned free throws? Does it
worry you at all? That like he's just not generating
a ton for someone his size. Where his free throw
excuse me, his free throw a temporrate has actually dropped precipitously. Yeah,
compared to last year. I don't, I I don't I
don't want to say I don't care, like that's something
that but I if he's drawing a ton of foul,
you would want it to be like kind of in
the vein of Kevin Durant or the way that Porzingis
would do it, rather than post ops are like these
bull Dozing draws. Or he's banging into everybody.
Speaker 2: Well and he too, like normally you would encourage every
player to like seek contact, but he has such unique
physical advantages that like he can actually you could justify
telling him avoid it, but like use your quickness and
use your length to just get angles that no one
can cover, as opposed to like, well if you just
bang into somebody, are you really like leveraging any of
the things that you're great at? I don't know. Eventually maybe,
but right now I think I'm not bothered at all
by the free throw stuff. He makes his free throws.
That's something he's really good at.
Speaker 1: That. All Right, So I have a really tough question
for you here. Sure, I'm just going to take a
deep breath before I ask it. Stock up or stock
down for Victor wibbin Yama.
Speaker 2: This will be controversial. I'm gonna say stock up. I
think I think he's looking pretty good.
Speaker 1: Same here dude, would you is there any justification from
high saying stock down because is it? Oh? Is this
someone who's always going to be dealing with something? And
I would I don't want to answer my own question,
but the fact that it's this, not that the blood
clot is better, but it wasn't oh sore left knee
or something is I don't really think that you, at
least right now, you can't lend like you can't assign
value to him missing the rest of this season with
the deep vein thrombocious in his shoulder.
Speaker 2: No, it'd be like the same thing as saying like
because Brandon Ingram had it once, Oh, we're really you know,
Brandingham has had other injuries. It's like it just isn't
the same. Like if he'd had like a foot sprain,
like anything with the feet or the knees or the back,
that's a problem.
Speaker 1: But he hasn't.
Speaker 2: Like he played seventy one games last year, he was
really durable this year. I got no concerns on that front.
Speaker 1: And he was caught. He didn't I did it. Actually,
I guess it did look like he was hitting a
wally into the All Star break. But now we know
why rightly, thirty three minutes per game. That was the
other thing, Well, is he ever gonna let him? When?
Is he gonna play thirty plus this year?
Speaker 2: That's what he did? Now this is your guy. Yeah,
I mean, I love so we have to I think
we have to just address like it's been fifteen games
this year. So the small sample thing applies to everything
we'll say about Ched Holmgren. I think the even knowing that,
the way I would frame it is like, if you
just went down the list of Okay, what would we
like to see from this guy in his asterisk sophomore
season because he did miss a full is full which
should have been his rookie year, and I guess what
you might say is like, the top thing we'd like
to see is availability, and we have not gotten that.
So that's two out of three years that have been
compromised by injury. That's that's a concern. Obviously. I don't
really know what to do with that other than to
just say that's a thing, and I guess you priced
that in, but beyond that, you'd say, well, all right,
so on this team in particular and going forward, love
to see increased stretch like that is just where he's
going to be most effective as as like an offensive
component three point percentages up from thirty seven to thirty
nine percent. You'd say, well, I'd like to see a
little more rebounding, especially on the Thunder team. Rebound rates up,
block rates up, like all a fewer minutes per game,
free throw rate up, like he's doing it again fifteen games,
so like a shitty three game stretch could change all that.
But just based on what we've got so far, I
think he's basically just checking all the boxes of what
you would have hoped statistically and from like a role
perspective to see. So I just think, like the question is,
and we're gonna address it on Friday. It's really hard
for me to I want you to appreciate what this
means me saying it is like deciding between who's more
important to the Thunder's big picture plans? Is it him
or is it Jalen Williams. And like, I think Jalen
Williams is great, but check did you know that should
we talk about Jayleen Williams for like a good like
a tight half hour. Would you want to just like
set a baseline?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 2: No, I don't. I don't really know what else to
add because the small samples stuff really compromises it. But
I think Holmgren has picked up where he left off
last year, where he was like one of the five
best defensive players in the league and just showed the
potential to be this hugely valuable offensive like kind of
secondary option with Again, like we talked about this over
the offseason, Like he added a lot more off the
dribble stuff during over the course of last season. We've
seen some of it this year. I just think he's
he's right on track for what you would have wanted
if you're an optimistic Thunder fan. I don't I don't
really have I don't know what the negatives are other
than the obvious of like, ah, man, I just can
he please stay on the.
Speaker 1: Floor, Which that's a big deal when we're talking about
like two of three years of there being struggles there.
I'm this isn't me calling you out, but I found
what you said interesting. We worked on a project together
for bleacher Report, and when I was reading what you
had written. When I was reading what you had written, yeah,
you kind of just I almost say you casually threw
it in there. But you said chet Holgren is already
a better defense than Rudy Gobert. Yeah, can you get
into that a little bit more well?
Speaker 2: So, I think the block rate stuff and the rim
defense stuff. I think again we're dealing with small samples.
Like it's close enough that you can say, like, yeah,
all right in terms of rim protection. Sure, if you're
talking about mobility, like I think you got to give
that to Chet too, just talking and you're not really
asking either of them to defend on the perimeter a ton.
You got to conceive that Chet is just more mobile
still at this stage. And then if it's like I
think you was making that argument in terms of just
like who's a better player flat out, and it's like, well,
if you're going to talk about offense, then we're not.
We're done with the conversation, right, Chet has like real
offensive dimensions. But I do think you know some of
the advanced metch like DPM. Again, that's small samples. Chet's
right there at or above Rudy. I don't have the
numbers in front of me, but I think you can
make that case pretty comfortably. Probably wasn't true last year,
although I think the numbers might have been closer last
year than you'd want to admit if you're a if
you're big on Gobert. But yeah, I think given the
age difference, given the mobility difference, given the fairly negligible
rim protection stuff like I think chet right now, I
would put it this way, if he had played enough
to qualify, it's hard for me to imagine we wouldn't
have him right smack in the middle of like the
mobile Jaron Jackson, you know who's dpoy Actually, now that
Wemby's out, he might even be the guy I picked first.
Speaker 1: Well, he would have won if Wemby got in, because
just the thunder have an all time great defense and
if he had qualified it just it would have gone right.
I don't even I think that's how voters would have
looked at it, do you. I just don't not that
I don't know what to make of his offense. I
want to make that clear. What is the thing that
needs to happen more? If he's like because I find
myself the drive rate is about the same compared to
last year. The three point attempt like the number of
three point attempts permitt it. I think it's actually lower
than last year, about the same as last year. I'm
still trying to figure out like what his calling card
is going to be on the offensive, which I think
is mission critical if you're trying to view him as
let's not even say a hub because I don't envision
Oklahoma City really ever using him like in the let's
go in a half cor let's throw the ball downloaded chet,
but just more so that if he's going to be
a secondary driver of offense, I think the thing for
me is one I like to see him take threes
and more volume, Yes I would, But I think the
bigger thing for me is maybe the drive rate is fine,
but like can we see a little bit more passing
out of those situations.
Speaker 2: I think it's a combo of those two. I think
the three point stuff is like, yeah, we want more
volume from everybody and him included, but like he is
already someone that like you're getting yelled at if you
let him alone on the perimeter, Like that's as you know,
the defense is like they're paying attention to him in
ways that it's like, okay, that's in terms of like
what that means for our offense as a whole, Like
he's doing that at a level that's like Okay, he's
a problem. We can't ignore him. We actually have to
really devote resources to not losing track of him. It
has to be just continued facility putting the ball on
the floor because he's going to be closed out on
hard because it's often going to be big guys running
at him, beating that first guy and then not having
a higher turnover rate than assist rate, which he does
have right now, he's turning it over more than he's
getting assists, So like he doesn't need to be diming
everybody up. But it needs to be two dribbles to
draw foul, two dribbles swing to the other corner like
that kind of stuff. That that type of feel on
the ball needs to be better, which again I think,
like he's played fewer than ninety career games. Yeah you
know that. I think if you're you talk all the
time about or you hear all the time about like
just seeing pictures, like seeing seeing the same situation enough
times to where it just becomes rope, like how you
handle it. They're not asking him to make like advance reads.
It's like, you know, beat the guy on the close out,
make one quick decision. I do think he's going to
be good at that, but right now he just actually
is not.
Speaker 1: He's done a lot better this season at drawing such
a small sample size, but he's he has like a
higher percentage of his fouls being drawn are shooting foul percentages.
And yet I still I don't know any like he's
been fouled on drives. I don't necessarily trust him. Who
would you trust more right now? Finishing through contact him
or Evan Mobley?
Speaker 2: Oh mobiley, Like yeah, not close.
Speaker 1: I'm still kind of waiting for him to make that
like kind of but uh yeah, there's no The only
thing with him would be availability is like if you're
really gonna harp on something like yeaid.
Speaker 2: I'd still go stock up, just because I think I
think we've seen enough like holding steady and incremental improvement
at some of the some of the like secondary things.
I'm I'm I think the fact that like he just
took a nasty fall, like what do you want you know,
and like he fell right on his hip like that,
maybe that doesn't bust everybody's hip like it did for him,
but it's like it's not like he had another foot injury.
So I'm I'm dismissing. I'm not dismissing discounting the durability
A little concern is just like a little bit.
Speaker 1: I'm tempted to go stock neutrol just to say that,
but I he's shown so much over the past season
and change just as like an actual player, I'm gonna
go stock up as well for him. Next up on
our board is Scoot Henderson, which he's fascinating grant in
the sense that if you just look at the numbers
compared to like the counting stats per Lesu, there's not
a ton of difference here. If you watch Scoot and like, yeah,
you could split up the season where he goes on
that heater and it looks great. But I think the
best way when you watch him, everything just feels better.
And they were playing, Oh man, what was the game?
It was? It was the game that they lost to
the Lakers, and they come out of it. It's the
first game out of the All Star break. Pretty much
everybody looks awful, with the exception like Donovan Klingen came
to play that game, but Scoot started like oh of
six or oh of seven or something, and I'm watching
him the entire time, like Wow, this guy's gonna be
really good. And I think that's the mark of just like, oh,
this is how much better it looks is he is
missing shots, but they were shots he should have taken.
He wasn't forcing it. His control and poise when he's
on the ball is just way better. And then yes,
the counting staff, you could break it up into a
season and you could find that, okay, like there's sort
of the material changes. But you look at just his scoring.
He was in the eighth percentile of self created scoring
efficiency last year. He's in the sixty fifth. Now, that's
pretty big jump. His rim finishing still touch and go.
I think a lot of it kind of has to
do with just takeoff points and angles, but his rim
percentage is still ten points higher than it was last year.
He's more dangerous, like trying to get to that floater,
and you look at this is a big one, like
just on jumpers. His effective field goal percentage as a
rookie forty three point one. That's up to forty nine
point eight this year. And you can even just look at, okay,
the three point percentage is higher. You trust him to
knock down a touch and shoot three. Now I think
his command over the game has gotten way better. On
the ball, I think he's not like I think you
could if you want a hem in haw is the
quality of the passes where it needs to be if
you want a floor general. I think that he's eventually
going to get there. But when you kind of look
at what he's doing in the lane, the patience he
has when he's like going up against traffic just to
handle the decision making, everything feels even though even I
think his turnover percentage might be up, everything just feels.
The fundamentals look, they feel, and they are better. And
so as someone that you need to trust to be
able to hit jumpers whether he's on or off the ball,
or just get into the lane and make things happen,
and maybe you're not necessarily trusting it at the most
deliberate pace where it's like, okay, let's slow things down
in the half court and set him a ball screen,
like there could still be some iffness there. He's gotten
better there too, like especially as a playmaker to me.
And so this is I mean, one, he is working
off an incredibly low baseline from last year, and I
think that helps his stock. But I think if you objectively,
just look at this season. He has had one of
the more encouraging just sophomore campaigns in a vacuum, not
even looking at oh scooged, look at what he was
last year compared to this year.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think, like for the exact reason you said
his stock is up, just because it was it was
pretty bottomed out as far as you know a player
with his kind of like draft pedigree and profile could
could get. Do you think, like, let's say he had
played at exactly this level in his rookie season, do
you think that would have registered as a disappointment still,
like relative to where he was drafted and what people
what we thought about him, Like if you could time
travel back and he did this as a rookie, so
twelve five and three, like, yeah, fifty five true shooting,
Like that's still not going to you know, blow you away?
Are you how are you feeling about this if it
were his rookie season relative to expectations, Like, you.
Speaker 1: Know, I hope I would be nuanced enough to feel
really good about it, because when you look at what
his role has been for the most most part with
the Portland trail Blazers. But I don't I think people
still would have looked at it as a disappointment just
because of where he was drafted. What I mean, we
said some pretty inflammatory things.
Speaker 2: About for sure he was drafted. I think though I
was just saying, I think, like he the difference the
numbers probably wouldn't have cut it. But I think and
whether that's fair or not, whatever, but I do think,
as you pointed out, just you've seen validation of like
oh that was some real quick burst, like man, he
looks strong, or like, oh that was so the suddenness
was there, and like the shots that should be taken
or be you would have last year if again, if
he had done this last year, you would have been
able to say, like I still kind of I see it,
like I get it. I understand why everybody was so
high on him. Where in his actual rookie season, like
those were really few and far between. Forget the numbers,
just like the instances where you could you could understand
the vision of what a lot of people were saying
he could be.
Speaker 1: And he kind of showed hints of this, like towards
the end of last year. But like when you're just
looking at some of the things of okay, like thirty
nine point three percent on a pretty good volume of
catch and shoot threes. That's a big deal. The thing
that I think I've struggled with the most, I really
I believe in him as a foundational passer, and I
think when you kind of mentioned like you saw the
blow by speeds, but now I've been most impressed, like
like he might have that and maybe he could use
it even more. But there's also just like the word
I use was like words patients and ployees. I've seen
more of that. Like the game feels like its slowed
down for him, and so he doesn't feel the need
to operate at a constant like am and Thompson operates
at eleven out of ten because that's just what he
should do, Like, doesn't need to do that now, and
like his game wasn't necessarily wired. If I had to
point to an area of concern, I don't know. I'm
intending to default to. The Blazers just aren't built for
him to be better. The finishing around the basket is
really really bad still, and I think a lot of it,
like I said, takeoff points and angles, but I do
like important spacing is nowhere near pristine. I mean his
his rim shot quality, and again I don't know how
much to assign to him where he's in the fourth
percentile of rim shot quality versus the third percentile last year.
But like when you're looking at the personnel around him,
the Blazers have very how many players on the Blazers,
let's flame with this way a way the ball are
considered an above average threat.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean what Simon's like, that's it. Yeah, it's
hard to be hard pressed sharp.
Speaker 1: It's not obvious, it's not grant anymore. It's not to
Monti Kamar, even when he's hitting his threes, and so
I really do think that makes his job more difficult.
I think look some of the lineups they've played him in.
I think you could argue like that they've exacerbated that problem.
So I'm willing to give it more time. But when
you're kind of looking at how he might react to
contact or he shies away from it, where that's like
where the takeoff stuff was weird, where it's like he's
trying to avoid the contact, it does give me pause.
But for right now, I think I still chalk it
up to like the Blazer's offense, a lot of the
time in the half court, Like that's just not really
built for anyone who's not a capslocked megastar to create
high percentage opportunities at the basket. Yeah, I'm going stock
up here, and I mean if you're going stock down,
not you specifically, if anyone's going stock down on scooed,
I would I mean this without a hint of irony.
I would love to see the justification. But that who
you got next?
Speaker 2: Grant got another blazer, another our of our, of you,
yours and my blazers. Uh. Timani Kamara, so uh, first
of all, like his have you seen his shot chart?
Just like it's one of the funniest shot charts. He
should have come into the league and immediately been like
time traveled back to the twenty like eighteen rockets, where
it's like you only shoot layups and you only shoot
threes and you guard five positions. Like that's just what
this guy is actually.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw, well, I haven't told you.
Multiple sources tell me that Tomani Kamara's shot chart acts
as cialis for Daryl Morey at this very moment.
Speaker 2: So that's a much more succinct way to put with
the point I was trying to make thank you.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 2: I think he's just now one of the premier three
and D guys in the league. We were like racking
our brains over like who are the three and D
guys A couple of pods ago, and it's like, yeah,
it's him. It's it's heavier on it's it's lighter on
the three than the deep part. But like he's he's
a fine three point shooter that I think maybe is
another year or so away from this of being like
really seriously guarded. Isn't doing anything else with the ball,
So he really is a true like kind of one
thing offensive type of player. But the one thing he
does is make threes at a decent of clip to
where he can be out there. You know, you'd need
real creators. Portland has those. So that's fine. Defensively though,
just like he guards everything and that has earned him
the most minutes and most starts of any sophomore. So
like he's that's not just it's not like Portland doesn't
have guys like they can play it. They're they're sneaky deep.
So he's earning all that with like elite role player
type stuff. His matchup time is like illustrative of just
like we'll throw him on anybody. So in order he
has spent the most time guarding Devin Booker one and
in descending order SGA, James Harden, Anthony Edwards, Dame Fred
van Vliet, Jokic. Sure well, why not Luca Halliburton, Kevin Durant.
Just like who you got, like whoever's whoever is a
threatening scorer, that's who he's gonna guard, and he's gonna
do very well. And I think like he's an extra.
The way I would sum it up is he is
an extremely limited but extremely useful like NBA starter, I think.
And that's I mean, he hinted at being this as
a as a rookie, but like there aren't a whole
lot of guys we're going to talk about. Maybe as
I'm looking down the list, I don't think anybody else
will say, like that guy is a plus starter right
now that could be on on the floor in a
conference finals, like in a fifth man role, Like that's
that's a big deal. So I mean, I feel like
I'm telegraphing where are my stock report's gonna be?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I'm horny for Kamar as well. And
I would probably say it might even be a little
bit higher on him offensively than you because I just
comes back to again what the Blazers are doing. But
like some of the stuff he's been able to do,
I don't think there's not gonna be a ton of
directionality to them, but like he can have those open
space drives and he's done a better job of passing
out of some of them this year. It feels like,
but like it's not gonna be I'm trying to think
of his offensive Arsenal's like closer to Dorian Finney Smith
than like og Anobi, like where you're not gonna Sae
like ojannaily trying and break guys down off the dribble
and some spins, it doesn't always end well. So you
could argue that Kamara playing within himself and the fact
that just he's okay, like you will see him be
in different spots on offense, but the fact that he's okay,
like floating out to the corner, lifting up from the corner,
like that's a big deal. Like some players don't, especially
this young, they don't want to do that, especially when
they're trying to get paid. Because he's on that so
they have him dirt cheap next year, and then they
have the team option the following year. We'll see if
they decline it and like you know, play the restricted
free agency game. But I just he's so good, like
this is gonna be I don't think he's going to
be a star, Like that would kind of surprise me.
But like when you mentioned an og An Andobi type,
could you see a scenario where he has that type
of just value and reputation around the league or do
you think that Ogi was viewed as someone who had
significantly more ball skills and that was kind of part
of his mistique.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's weird because like no one would say og
was like like I always feel like his offensive game
was like good enough to where you like you're talking
about like he could attack, he could he could physically
overpower guys, and you know, he could get you. I
think he probably shot a slightly higher volume of threes
and definitely has had some much more efficient three point
shooting seasons. Kamars at just one undred thirty seven percent
this year, So like that's plenty good enough for what
he brings defensively. I think og if he could get
to an anenobe level like that's that's probably about the ceiling.
I think the other thing to just you know, throw
a little cold water on it's like he's gonna be
twenty five before the like at you know, in May.
I think, so this is like, you know, he is
a player whose athleticism matters, and so like he he
I think, you know, he's in his prime today like
this is. It's not not saying he can't stay here
for like three, four or five more years, but like
I'm not sure I see a ton of upside and
and if it did come, I think it would be
as you alluded to, like just a little more versatility offensively,
like being a little more threatening attacking with the ball.
But like just again the very limited things that he's
asked to do, he's great at. So I just yeah,
he fits and also find the team he doesn't fit on,
like the team doesn't exist.
Speaker 1: And by the way, if he's adding versatility, it's not
common on the defensive end. It has to be what
else does he's supposed to do defensively? And by the way,
that there's some value in that where Okay, let's say
his athleticism wanes, like the fact that he spent so
much time on like these bigger dudes where it's well, well,
just go to faniokicchen like a bunch of fours. If
he's not able to keep up with the smaller point
of attack guys moving forward, So stock up for me?
Speaker 2: What about you, big time? Yeah, stuck up.
Speaker 1: This next player is mine. I'm In Thompson, another guy
we love around these parts of like I said, really
positive exercise that we're going through right now. I don't
this is just kind of another case where and if
you have anything to add, like the defense is just
he's a defensive monster. I don't like he's a disruptor.
I think he has the potential to well, I don't think.
I think a lot of people like to gravitate towards
the players who will either guard up or just kind
of like absolutely just shut down one player. If we're
ever looking at, oh, can a perimeter guy win defensive
Player of the Year. I don't know if he fits
that archetype, but if if someone who's not a five
is gonna win Defensive Player of the Year in the
near future, I would have Amen Thompson on the shortlist
of players who would be eligible before, like he has everything,
just the instincts to playmaking, and there's just like you
can't beat him, Like he's just so explosive, you just
can't beat him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's like I'm trying to think who used to
have this? You would see it from like guys like
Chris Dunn or Dennis Smith, where it's like it's just
all you want as a ball handlers, like get this
guy away from me. And Thompson is that guy right now,
except he's way bigger and longer and more athletic and
like even more, he's got to be like the most
predatory defender just because he really just attacks guys and
just I can't imagine a player less fun to be
defended by than him. But the offense is really what
we got to talk about, right in terms of like
ceiling and growth and that kind of thing.
Speaker 1: And I think I'm still trying to figure out what
his ceiling is. But when you watch him this year,
and I now I've know I've said this a few times,
a lot of players who have his skill set or
let's say limitations right now, like you want to get
them ahead of steam when they're catching the ball, and
he does get that when he's operating in transition or
even in the half court, but his dead stop speed
is insane. Just like this is like he it doesn't
matter how far. If you you watch some of the
Rockets games and it's like, okay, he catches the ball
and then defense are just sagging off him because it's
all right, he's not a threat as a shooter. But
like that'll be able to stop the drive, No, won't,
Like it just won't. Like it's you could station that
person all the way back at the basket and he
will still somehow beat them to the rim. And I
think if you go back and watch like last year's
drives versus this year's, it does feel like there's sort
of a more unpredictability, like changes in I won't say
pay so much as direction that's a big deal because
it's like, all right, this doesn't need to be someone
who's attacking from like like a forty five angle or
just from above the like No, like he will get
to where he wants to go by like he will spin.
The footwork this year has been incredible, like his I
don't I feel like it's illegal, like to have his
type of euro step where it's just like it's almost teleportation,
but it feels so much more like explosive than that.
And that's a like there's no notes there, Like I
think that's that's just a huge part of his game
and it makes up for some of his limitations. I
think the other thing, too, is because he's able to
operate from those dead stops. He's now in the eighty
six percentile of self created shot making efficiency. That's up
from fifty seventh last year. Like that's a pret he
was above average technically last year in a somewhat smaller role.
I think the thing I've been most impressed with, and
we did see this last season, both you and I
believe had questions about, well will it work with Shang
guon or some of these other offensive setups. I haven't
looked at the recent numbers, like for the season, those
lineups with Shang gun are working because Amen Thompson is
just always like he maybe not always, but he's willing
to always move, Like there's whether he's gonna be in
the baseline or he's gonna be in the dunker spot,
or he's gonna, you know, come an attack from forty
five degrees in Like he is always moving you could
use him, He'd like, you're not doing this in a
shit ton of high volume, but if you really want to,
he has the strength, he kind of has the size,
and we've seen him like he set some good screens
this year up. And I think what also helps, by
the way, just to give Shangun to hat tip, is
just like he is someone who's willing to set ball
screens that like feel way higher up on the floor
than a lot of other bigs, And so I think
that's also helped the Rockets out in certain instances. But
Amen Thoms's ability to just move without the ball, read
the game without the ball, it allows him to fit
with basically almost anyone. I would say the questions I have,
there's the jump shot, and I think, look, the mid
range percentage is up. He's went from thirty seven percent
last year from mid range to forty two percent this year.
He's shooting about fifty two percent on floaters, up from
forty eight percent last year. And he is shooting thirty
five percent on threes from the corners, but percent above
the break. None of it, like the floater, is a modest,
like medium sized part of his game. None of it's
super high end, and I think what's gonna be really
key for him is can one of those become like
whether it's hitting shots from the corners or whether it's
hitting you know, off of drives, off of like driving kicks.
Can he hit those above the break threes? Or can
the floater just be an even more dangerous part of
his game where Okay, you're gonna play off me, I'm
not necessarily gonna go buy you like I'm gonna flip
up this floater a little bit more. I don't know
where that's gonna end up. The efficiency on floaters is
certainly encouraging, as is the change in direction with his handle.
I think that's going to be a swing part of
his game. And the final thing just that I've noticed
before throwing it to you, I find the playmaking interesting.
He'll do serious damage against scrambling defenses, whether it's in
transition or they're reacting to him when he's operating from
that dead stop. I still think that he's probably a
little bit too dependent if you're gonna work in more
deliberate situations, if he has to back down someone or
wait off the catch, he kind of needs to let
things develop around him at the same time, we have
seen him throw some like truly obscene, live drible passes.
And I think that if the Rockets eventually assemble more
shooters around him, or as his own offensive jump shooting
opens up, like those sort of avenues of playmaking are
going to be even more available to him. But I don't,
I don't necessarily know how to feel about him as
a playmaker just.
Speaker 2: Yet, so that you're you're reading my mind, because I
think we have to look at the like the theory
of him as like, okay, should he be a guy
that's in the corner, like he's had most of his
success in the dunker spot for like a lot of
his career so far. But if we put him in
the corner and and okay, because he can make shots
from there, are we foreclosing on the possibility like this
guy might just be the Rockets point guard going forward,
Like you know that was part of the package that
you know was maybe I don't know if you could
see it easily, but it was in there when you
were discussing him as a prospect, and so like I
think it was a couple of weeks ago, I was
listening to Ben Taylor and in fairness he was comparing.
He was drawing the comparison between someone like Lebron or
Luca or Jokic who manipulates the defense and is like
doing stuff before the pass that indicates, like I understand
what I need to do to these nine other pieces
to maximize this possession. And he contrasted that with someone
with Thompson specifically saying, like he doesn't do that at all,
and now that's he's it's in his second year. We
may not be a point guard, but if you so,
it's just I think those two things, like his pretty basic.
I'm not I'm not disagreeing at all with some of
the passes that he throws on the move, like he
does see things, but pretty basic understanding of like or
rudimentary maybe is the better word of, like how to
manipulate the other players on the floor when he has
the ball to like create opportunities. And then with the
shooting limitation. So it's like which of those basic don't know,
which of those do you think is most likely to
kind of develop? And then that has to inform like
which role he ultimately plays for the Rockets, right, because
like he can't be the point guard or the primary initiator.
I don't think, well, it's hard to do it either
way if you can't shoot, or but you really can't
do it if if you're sort of like I can
make the one pass, but I can't you know, bend
the defense or move this guy here or there or
set things up. You can't be the point guard. And
like if you can't make threes from anywhere but the corners,
Like I don't really know what that means for you
as like a wing, you know, like, so which of
those do you do? You have more confidence in him,
you know, not being deficient.
Speaker 1: In I I'll frame it this way, I have more
confidence in him showing more layers and levels as a
scorer than I do a passer because I don't know
if it's not that you need to play offense this way,
but it's like look at kind of Jamran where we
kind of know what like his first step speed can be,
but like you would trust him to run your actual
offense in the half court. He has his own limitations,
of course, but I just don't see that type of
methodicality from I'm and Thompson just yet E or two though.
And it's also by the way, it's not a role
that they've asked him to play in a shit ton
of volume, because their offense is like, it's not that
it's by committee, but it has it's so many of
these other different options. But they have doubled his pick
and roll ball handling volume from last year, and again
not like a folkrum of his game at the moment.
And then just the returns are just been eh and
I don't know some of it again, like when you
look at some of the draw like the turnovers on
his drives, when he's trying to kick out to players,
whether it's behind him like off to his side. I
think you can argue that if the Rockets had like
more threatening shooters around him, like those passes will become easier,
but that's not really I don't think that's because if
you told me, Okay, the Rockets shooters have a ton
of it's four out, like four above averagehooters around him, Okay,
the play making will get better. But I don't think
that's what you're asking either. Where it's yeah, you want
him to be the floor general as of right now,
I don't necessarily be see him being that type of player.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I feel like me asking that is
a little unfair because I think I think he's gonna
be a really good player. He is a good, really
good player. I think he's gonna be an even better player,
like even if he continues to be like a sub
thirty percent three point shooter and never develops as a passer,
just because he'll get better at the stuff he's already
good at, and he's already good at enough different things that,
like like the gravity thing, like he has no gravity
off the ball, but because he moves, defenses cannot let
him like take a hand off or come off a
screen with any kind of advantage or any kind of
space because he's just gonna athletically overwhelm you and make
make that space like devastating. So like he does, he's
not someone you get to ignore. It's like we're not
talking like a Tony Allen type thing where he's just
standing in the corner. So I think there are ways
for him to leverage what he's great at to be
like a more dynamic offensive player than he even is
right now, but like to get rich to be like
the guy like offensively, I think one of the one
of the two things we're not sure about probably needs
to happen for like talking like all star stuff. Otherwise
he's gonna be a good He's a good starter today
and that'll continue. But the ceiling is really interesting because
it could take he could reach it and in like
ways that you know several different types of players ultimately,
Like I don't that's the other I don't know what
kind offensive player ultimately he's gonna be, wouldn't.
Speaker 1: This isn't a perfect analog, So I don't know that
I'll ever see him the way that Yannis operates offensively.
But I might have said this after the second season
of Yannis his career. Yeah, everything felt so abrupt from him,
but he's turned into just a more deliberate score and like, no,
do you trust the mid range jumper all the time?
Like he just has all these different counters offensively, and
you would trust him as a secondary playmaker. Now, one
of the bucks bigger issue was they want someone aside
from Dame to be more of a primary guy. So
maybe maybe it's similar in the sense of, Okay, if
he becomes Yiannis as a playmaker, there's absolutely nothing wrong
with that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I think too, Like he's not as cerebral
but like from a like a by composition's standpoint, and
like there's like a Jimmy Butler type offensive game where
it's like he's not hunting threes, He's just gonna get
to his spot and be have good feet and be strong.
Like there's no reason Thompson can't be someone that's getting
to the line like eight nine times a game. Like
that kind of thing could come too.
Speaker 1: Yeah, his free throw tenth rate is up this year
as well. I'd be curious he does. See. I don't
know if it's just not he's so fast, but like
he's not the best at finishing through, Like he's had
some really tough finishes. But I think part of that
is when he's trying to finish through contact, it's like
increasing the distance between him and the hoop, and like
we just know his limitations there. But I do think
just the progression as even a floater shot maker, like
that percentage climbing, it's a good harbinger if you have
any concerns about about him there. So I'm I'm stock
up on him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, sure, that's big time stuck up for sure.
Speaker 1: Who you got Grant? Oh? Wow?
Speaker 2: Who is this guy? We got? We got pods. We
got Brandon Pajemski, man of several seasons already in this year.
So I think the first thing that I feel most
confident about is that like he's not he's just not
a star. He's not going to be a star. I
think he can be a decent starter, maybe a little
better than that who looks great when surrounded by other
smart players, because like he does have real limitations. The
shooting is just like if you had to just boil
down the like, how good can Pajemski be? It's like,
is he going to make a league average percentage from three?
Like that's that's kind of just it, because do you
just provide.
Speaker 1: Have him recover from what was an abdominal injury each
time and then he'll come back.
Speaker 2: And something like that. Yeah, so that's the thing. So
he's had three months under thirty percent from three this
year and two months over forty, So like, which which
is it? I think he's second one obviously, sure of course,
And like the I think if if that's your position,
you can point to he's making seventy five percent of
his free throws this year, which is much better than
last year and much better than early this season. When
it was like, how is it possible that a guard
is in the sixties or the seas in the fifties.
For me, like that can be sustainable. So the shooting
is the swing skill. I think like we've got enough
of a sample of the plus minus stuff and the
defensive estimated plus Like he's a ninety first percentile guy
in DPM. That's that's just like playmaking, knows for the
ball stuff like takes a million charges, tends to be
in the right spot, gambles like fairly selectively, and is
successful at it. The defensive rebounding, he's an awesome rebounder
for a guard's It's really just a continuation of last year.
The difference being we saw what it looks like when oh,
like the ball's not going in and he can't score
at all, and he looks on athletic like he's a
real He's been a real Peaks and Valleys player this year.
I think the difference, the difference lately is just that
like the Warriors have another smart offensive player in Jimmy Butler,
and that has everybody cutting harder, and Jimsy's good at that,
and just he makes more sense when he can just
be like a supplementary piece that does a bunch of
smart shit and like plays hard. I like, I don't
know what more, Maybe you tell me, like, do you
do you think that's like a too limiting of an
assessment for him, where it's like he's a high end
roll guy and I'm not sure the ceiling goes much
above that. No, I'd be with you, And I was
probably I said some pretty inflammatory things after last year
because I looked at the separation and just the percentage
of what he was doing on his step back jumpers,
and I was everyone's so concerned about the lack of
athleticism or what's he gonna do going downhill or Kenny
hit jumpers. I'm like, we just have evidence here those
percentages of plummeted. And I think the more you watch him,
you kind of understand, all right, if he's gonna be
limited from the perimeter and that when it comes to
shock creation and then I don't know, I know he
guards at the point of attack a ton, but like.
Speaker 1: Do you consider him that level? He's a very smart defender,
but is he that level of a defender? And if
he's not, then what is he.
Speaker 2: That's the thing, like he's I don't think anyone would
confuse him with like a shutdown type of defender. I think,
like just he's not he's listed at six or five.
I don't see sixty five when when when you watch,
he doesn't play six y five except as a rebounder.
I think I think he's smart off the ball. He
does a lot of smart things, like getting in position
for charges. He definitely reads the floor really well and
like that goes a long way defensively. But I don't
see a scenario where you're ever consistently putting him on
a guy that you need to like stop. I think
I think he can be part of a very good defense.
I think there's no question about that. I don't know
if he's going to be someone that's like the reason
the defense is good, you know, on his own. So
like I think it's just it's a lot of the
same stuff. Like you know, when he looks worse on offense,
it's when he's trying to create a shot and he
gets to twelve feet and gets like stuck because he's
not long enough to finish over people, and he goes
he's got like creative footwork and he gets off a
lot of weird shots that like he kind of doesn't
have any business getting off. It's similar on defense, where
it's like he'll do the right things, but at some point,
I I think the athletic and size limitations make it
so that he can't I think, be a consistent like
shut down, you know, clamps on type of guy. Maybe
against like certain matchups you can you can see him
do that, but I don't think consistently.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd probably be stocked neutral on him at this
I'm not down based off how he started the season,
but I was so confident in him being able to
be like more of a perimeter shot maker. Yeah, and
maybe the past two months has been the harbinger of
what's to come. But I just don't like, what is
it who would be a comp not in terms of
play style as a player, but use role player. I'm
talking about just in terms of value, like what would
be a comp of what this and like look for
where you drafted him, He'll he'll outperformed his draft regardless.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think like so like on the low end,
I guess even though this guy is a useful player,
like it's kind of there's some TJ. McConnell like plays
at a fast paced like is not a super He's
a more threatening shooter than McConnell for sure, but like
is getting into the lane and trying to make stuff happen,
and is an irritant on defense and does smart things.
That's a low end, like I if you go higher end,
it's like, I don't know who that it's. He's not
an on ball like dragicic type. Just to use another
like white lefty uh or like because Dragic could really
play point guard and right was a high volume, like
dangerous three point shooter, but he has had a bunch
of craft like similar craftiness. It's a hard comp I
would say, I'm also stock neutral just to jump it
because he was he was fifth in Rookie of the
Year voting last year, and like he's somewhere in that range.
Speaker 1: Sorts last year too, by the way, that that's egregious, correct,
what'd you say he got all defense votes last year?
Speaker 2: But I don't remember that. I think, Well, if you
leave the league in charges by ten miles, I guess
that sways some people.
Speaker 1: But what do you think about this comp The rim
pressure is not like it's not even close to the
same with the rim finishing and maybe I'm just focused
on the fact that they're so like he's a click
dick type players.
Speaker 2: But Josh Hart, that's interesting. I like the rebounding is
kind of on the nose.
Speaker 1: Good enough on defense, but not excellent on defense.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the defensive impact is more because of like
energy level and like competitiveness than oh he's just like
so physically gifted or or you know that kind of Yeah,
that's an interesting one. And you could even the three
point shooting like coming and going, I think is a
real is a good through line for that too. Yeah.
Maybe Heart plays bigger though that would be the biggest
difference is other than rebounding. Pajemski profile Like offensively, Pajemski
plays like he's six feet you know, like that that's
a big difference there. Heart is finishing into contact and
like it's just one of the best transition finishers around,
like that kind of thing. He plays bigger, But yeah,
like that's that's a better comp than any of mine.
That's that's interesting.
Speaker 1: So are you stock up or stocked out of him?
Speaker 2: And I think it's neutral. I think like the plus
minus stuff like is what it is, and eventually we
won't be able to ignore it. Like he is kind
of a winning player, but like he's a complimentary winning player,
I think, which is what we knew last year.
Speaker 1: Stay tuned for Friday for more on maybe Brandon Projimski.
I have nice little discussion going on there. I am
up with my final deep dive rookie. A rookie, excuse me,
sophomore remain smitten with Asar Thompson. So I mean I
could spoil it and just say I'm stock up for him.
I think it took a little while for him to,
if you want to say, get going. He came back
from the blood clot, wasn't available to start the season. Uh,
we'll get into limitations, I think. And we're gonna just
compare the two because they're twins.
Speaker 2: I was just gonna say, I'm an idiot. Can you
just tell me the differences? So that's what I'd like
to know.
Speaker 1: I will I won't just say that because I want
to give Ssar Thompson some credit. And I think, Look,
they're being used in different ways. I think one of
the I think in terms of floor awareness and as
a passer, I like Asar Thompson a lot better than
men Thompson there, and when you look at a sar
Thompson just kind of operating if you're gonna get like
they're not even gonna give him a ton of ball
screens necessarily, but like he will more methodically break down
defenses in the half court. Now, there's only so much
like that means when you don't I think right now
he's even more limited. When you look at the floater percentages,
they're a smaller part of his game. He's shooting worse
from three than I'm men Thompson. But what I've really
liked seeing the Pistons doing, and it feels like anecdotally
there's been an increase of like Kay cunninghamy when he's
on the floor is not always gonna bring up the
ball like Asar Thompson will do it. And I think
that's created a lot of opportunities to unlock his playmaking,
give kid breaks, give him an ability to showcase what
he's able to do off the ball. I think just
Asar Thompson's awareness of the surroundings is huge in the
half court and that extends to by the way, this
is something that am Men Thompson's also good at. This
extends toone he's off the ball as well, Asar knows
how to use, like utilize the dunker spot. I think
what he's done a really good job of because when
you look at Alprinshangun and maybe where the players are
setting their primary screens like as Shang Gun or Jalen
Duran or even just where their station, a lot of
the time, Shang Guon to me objectively, gives Amn Thompson
more room to work with. Jalen Duran does not like.
And that's just the type of play because if he's
not going to be involved in the screening action, even
if he is, how high are you going to have
him come out? And so I think Usar Thompson's had
to work within I think you can make the case
that maybe there's better shooters around him in certain lineups,
but he's had to work off of a tougher situation.
Big I would say, like because Shang Goun's just better
than Duran Duran on offense hot take there I know.
So I appreciate like his floor navigation when he's away
from the ball, but the passing to me is like
a big deal. I don't know if he's ever we
mentioned this with Aman Thompson. They have the same limitations
in the sense of, all right, if you want them
to just run a pick and roll or if you want
to give them a ball and have them just run
the offense. Conventionally, that's not something that he's necessarily fully
equipped to do. But I will say I think he's
a lot better at it than Aman Thompson is right now,
because I'm and Thompson feels as a playmaker more reliant
on his speed than Asar Thompson does at this point,
And I honestly the other thing too. And this would
come down to a difference between them. Who do you
feel about better defensively, like as the one on one
type of guy.
Speaker 2: So I think I have to say this, this is
the problem. I would say, amen. But the question I
was gonna ask you is like, if you just had
both of them playing like the same minutes in role,
I don't know if I would. I think it would
be like, Oh, it's a wash, because like to say
that Asar is anything less than like a terrifying defender
is wrong.
Speaker 1: No, Okay, he is. He's like he has some of
the playmaking aspect, but I feel like he also kind
of has more of the and I think a sar,
excuse me, Amen is kind of more disruptive and if
you're gonna look at, oh, look at what someone is
doing as breaking up these plays, or maybe we get
to a point where the counting stats might, like those
counting defensive stats will favor Amen heavily. But if you're
just asking me, like who is more likely to be
the type of defender where I don't know if this
is the player that popularized it. Maybe it's just like
my first recalling it back in what was the twenty
eleven where it was Kawhi Leonard is gonna be on
you and like we're you're our best offensive player or score,
We're not gonna involve you in the offense because we
don't want Kawhi Leonard in Like it feels that Asar
Thompson to me is more of that type of a
defender than Amen Thompson would be. Maybe that's splitting hairs,
Maybe it's wrong. Again, there are fewer than one hundred
games into their careers, so we will see the questions
with him. And again I love the changes in pace
on the ball from him as well. He's up on
floaters this year, but there's still only forty four point
four percent versus twenty nine point four percent last year
three of seventeen on corner threes, which is eighteen percent.
I don't like. I think that's going to be the
swing skill for him? Is just like is he gonna
have one of those? And I think in his case,
and maybe this changes as the complexion of the rockets changes,
but in his case it might be more important. Yet
he's great at working in from the baseline I mentioned
the dunker spots. He also deserves credit because he's shooting
sixty percent on two's with Durren on the floor and
without Durren on the floor. And so that's like the
fact that you could play him with Calan Duran. We've
seen something is with Ron Holland as well, Like that matters.
Does it feel like it's gonna be more important for
him than Ahman Thompson to be like more of an
off ball jump shooter or like because Kate cutting Samage
is there in Detroit?
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think so that's the thing is like
they're what they're being asked to do is very different.
Since we since I personally can't stop just comparing the
two like I would, I think I'd feel differently if
in Detroit Asar was on the ball as much as
Ahman was, and then I'd be like, well he could.
You know, it's not it's not like necessity that it
becomes a league average three point shooter, the same way
it is with with Amen, because oh, there's another way
for him to be a real plus offensively. But Kate
is the guy and so that's been the thing in
Detroit forever is just how do we play off of him?
And so he's just gonna have to be a shooter.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I think that would be something to consider.
But again, the complexion of the Rockets could change if
they make a consolidation trade or something over the summer.
The other thing he like we already mentioned, like the
off ball movement is going to be there. Is there
anything else that either stands out or is like a
concerning part for you? And like what do you I
guess what do you see? We talked about like the
long term vision for omentops, Like what is the long
term vision for him?
Speaker 2: Then I think it's I guess it's clearer because just
to reiterate, like, I don't think there's a scenario where
a star is like a high usage on the ball
playmaker because that you know, seat's taken like that's that's
Kate Cunningham. So I think the difference is I don't
know that there's a huge difference in skill set. Honestly,
I have a huge, really hard time like picking out like, oh,
definitely this is different between the two of them. I
think the differences will just become apparent in like, well,
a star is gonna be asked to handle like slightly
more specific things I think, and can he do that?
So and in a way that's a little disappointing because
it is gonna limit him, I think a little bit.
Do you feel like I've always had this feeling, well,
more so last year like Thompson.
Speaker 1: Seems like wish Thompson, thank you.
Speaker 2: So I'm looking at Asar Thompson on the screens, so
like obviously he knows what I'm talking about. A SAR
feels to me more like if things don't work out
on offense, I'm kind of cool with him. He's my
power forward or you know, like whereas I guess we
should say that about Amen too, because he's done all
the dunker spot stuff and he rebounds really well and
he's strong. But for some reason I view a sar
as like that fallback feels more comfortable to me, maybe
because he had better shot blocking numbers I think specifically
last year. Do you have that sense or is it
more they're just both either wings or guards?
Speaker 1: No, so I think, ah, how do you think the opposite? No,
I don't think. I don't think the opposite. I guess
I would feel about the same if like the jumper's
not gonna pain out for the two of them. But
I do think that if you remove the thermonuclear athleticism
from their games, I find what Asar Thompson does so
far slightly more cerebral, where it's if you had to
have him set screens more evidence than he does now,
I would trust him more out of that. And I think,
just because I mentioned the top of this, just the
way we've seen and this might be a reps thing
or the way that they're using him thing like they've slowed,
they've had to slow things down when he has the
ball in his hands offensively, and so like we've kind
of seen more pathways for him as a passer there.
I would feel if you if you took away that
just detonative athleticism. I feel better about Assar Thompson as
the player.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's fair. I think that's I think
that's kind of I'm saying the same thing in a
different way. So is the stock up or stock down?
Because like I mean, had a weirdly knock him down?
Speaker 1: Just is it because like the offensive efficiency hasn't climbed
in the way that it has.
Speaker 2: For No, just because that's the premise.
Speaker 1: I thought you were actually considering. I'm I'm stuck up.
I think as a score, here's an interesting question. As
a score, we both definitely have more questions about a
SAR than a'm men Like that's.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's right. I But other than that,
like he's stuck up for me, Like all his per
thirty six is are significantly improved. He's like he would
basically just be leading the league in steels if he
were playing, you know, thirty six minutes and get into
the line a little more. Everything is ticking up, even
it's modest, but you know he's up over twenty percent
from three. That's that's better than eighteen percent. Like he
just the questions largely though, are the same gonna make
shots or you're gonna be an on ball guy and
we'll just that that determines how good or great these
two can both be.
Speaker 1: Is there some I way off there when I said
at the beginning where it does feel like Amen Thompson
is more disruptive. But you even look at Asar Thompson
and you're like the what is his his block rate
is higher this show? Oh no, it's lower than it
was last year. Maybe that's what I why I'm like,
put like a steel rate. He's almost at a four
percent steel rate this year. Is that? Is that just
completely but like insane that I'm saying that? Or is
it like is it's it's a feel thing watching them?
And maybe it's because if it like Asar Thompson spending
more time guarding the ball, well.
Speaker 2: I I still can't get out of my head, like
what was it? Maybe I think it was an early
season game against Minnesota where a'men just like if it
was Edwards or if it was Conley or whoever was
a lot of colmly where he just like my vision
of Amen is like if you're a one or a
two and you see him matched up across from you,
it's just like a nightmare. Whereas a star I feel
like is more someone that's out there on like the
Tatum type guys that like those size players. Maybe the
matchup data totally puts the lie to this, but I
think of them defensively a little differently. Where a'men is like,
has no right to be as quick and predatory as
he is for his size, and so he's just like
terrible against terrible, like he's a terror against smaller guards,
whereas a star is just like you put him on
a wing and it's clamps like little. I don't know
why I think that, but that's just how I view
slight differences defensively.
Speaker 1: Stock up for both of them, though, So congratulations to
the tops and twins, who are separate people just by
grant deciding that they're just one human being. We're gonna
enter the more of the quick hitter portion of this
to run through some guys with our impressions of and
next up and oh no, wait, this is our final
deep dive you have? How can I forget about Black
Cool Bali, our guy.
Speaker 2: Well, unfortunately, there's a good reason you might have forgotten
about him is he's been quite a bit worse this
year in a couple of important ways. The shooting has
regressed significantly. He has been worse from two and notably
worse from three. He's twenty eight percent from three this
year and the volumes higher marginally, but he was thirty
five percent last year, which was with that his athleticism
and potential was like, Okay, this is a guy. He
still could be that guy. This is age twenty season.
He's younger than a lot of the players we've talked about,
and he's in a situation that, like, you know, playing
for Washington, if you're drawing any far reaching conclusions about
almost anybody, like good luck, because the environment is just
not conducive to like major development other than the fact
that you can have a really big role before you're
ready for it. I think it sort of offsets the
shooting stuff that there is. Partly it's just Washington trying
to do this, I think, but there has been like
pretty legitimate like playmaking growth, which i you know, his
assist rate has almost doubled eight to fifteen percent, and
the turnovers of state about steady the time of possession.
This is this is where it's like, well, is it
because he should be doing this or because Washington has to?
He's also kind of doubled his time of possession per
game in terms of just like minutes on the ball.
He's playing six more minutes a game this year, So
it's not quite like a straight always two to one
did it, but like it's been a significant role shift
for him. So like, ultimately, I don't know if we
or the Wizards should see him as someone that really
will be on the ball a lot. I think where
I land though, is that it is a positive that
at this early juncture of his career, Coolbally is like
at least sort of like testing the bounds of like
what can I be as an on ball guy? Because
the best version of him is he is a do
it all, you know, first option big wing, Like that's
that's if you could draw it up, that's like his
hundredth percentile outcome. That's that's absolutely ideal. It's optimal. So
I'm encouraged that Washington seems to be viewing it that
way too, And it's not like, well, let's specialize him
somehow or let's let him only stick to what he's
good at, which at this point is like how do
you even determine that? So like if you're just looking
like pure numbers. I think maybe you're discouraged. The scoring
average is up, but he's playing more, is shooting more,
he's just making lower percentages, so it's like counting stat
stuff that can be you know, miss leading. I think
the thing that I'm holding out hope with and like
I am encouraged by is just the role has changed
enough to where I think the vision of the best
version of him is still there, and it's it's a
little easier to see it because you know, three and
a half assists a game this year that doesn't seem
like a lot. But doubling your assist percentage year over year,
not turning it over more. I think you can definitely
view that as like there's something here that feels like
star quality years from now. But it's again, he's twenty,
Like I don't, how do you know? We we've like
sort of fetishized like this guy looks like someone who
can do everything as a rookie, and he was billed
as like super raw. Have you based on this year
changed like that basic analysis?
Speaker 1: No, I think I've been happy with you mentioned the
possession time. I didn't realize like how big that it jumps.
But I think when you watch me, you can tell
they're on the ball more. He's driving more, and so
to get that sample size and if you decide, okay, hey,
it needs to be lowered or stay here, tapered off whatever.
At the same time, like you already kind of mentioned
the playmaking reason he's made a lot better than last year,
the fact that the finishing at the rim has not
only held up but gotten a lot better too. I
think that's a big deal for him. And so even
if there's I want to call it the worst case scenario,
but maybe more of a modest outcome for him on
the offensive end, like him being able to do that.
I think he is someone who I would like to
see set more screens. I know someone of his size
is not particularly used in that ILK, but because of
the way that he's like, he can finish through contact,
and so I might like to see him, especially when
you're playing with Alex Sar, who can be a floor
spacing big and maybe you don't want him screening all
the time. I would love to see more of that,
and maybe we could just as like they get a
better feel for who he is and the roster around
him becomes more cemented. I guess I would frame it
this way. I might be a little bit lower on
him offensively, just because after two years, if you don't
think he's gonna be an efficient on the ball score
so it's okay, do you think he's gonna be a
Jimmy Butler or George just on the level of that player.
It feels like we're getting further and further away from that, hope.
But I feel better about him overall because I think
there are different ways you can use him on offense
and as the playmaking jump that we both mentioned. And
then you haven't said this yet because I don't think
we need to. He had an incredibly difficult defensive role
last year. It has gotten harder this year and he
has gotten better.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And so the defense is like I don't I'm
not concerned about the defense at all, Like that that's
still there.
Speaker 1: So I think when you package that together, it makes
the offensive and uncertainty. At this point, would you say
it's more excus more intriguing than alarming, Like, it's way
more intriguing than alarming when he could be on offense right.
Speaker 2: Now, Yeah, because the shooting regression was like, all right,
that's you would have probably guessed that he wouldn't be
as efficient as a shooter. And like, I think ultimately too,
I've said ultimately like five times that it's so hard
to divorce like what he has improved at or regressed
that from the situation like this team is Washington team
is so young and so uninterested in winning games to
where like who's to say that if you didn't put
like two good shooters around him, he might have more
space to operate in the assist rate would be even higher,
and he would be shooting thirty four percent from three
just because you know, like we can say this about
every bad team, but the Wizards are like so bad
that it really you can't pretend it doesn't affect like
what he's able to do on the floor. So like,
if anything, maybe the fact that he's made any growth
at all is like, well, we should view that as
like a three x improvement just because of the context.
Speaker 1: And I kind of wonder, I mean, he's had some
good talent, like when you're looking at Jordan Poole, when
you're looking at Malcolm Brogden, and he did have Tye
shoones last year's like well, well, the quality of his off
ball shots go because you look at okay sub thirty
two percent on catch and shoot threes, because that's sort
of the that's the low hang. If you want to
feel good about Black Colabara being a potential future All Star,
it's this exact player you're watching right now, basically, But
can he shoot thirty six thirty seven percent on what
is mostly a diet of okay catching shoot wide open threes?
And when you watch his jumper at least it's not
all like this guy's a hopeless shooter. And I guess
it's easier because we have a proof of concept to
some extent from last year, maybe boils done, Like does
his offensive role need to be streamlined a little bit,
not to say like marginalized, but when he goes into
it either needs to be marginalized or is it just
does he need better players getting him the ball to
where it's okay? As bub Carrington grows as an example,
or maybe as they get another type of playmaker in there,
is that going to make his job even easier.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's why I think it is kind of a
philosophical thing, and I skew towards I think it's just
better that he's being like sort of forced to do
on ball stuff. Oh, I agree, you know what I mean,
like he yeah, But I think you're right, Like if
the Wizards just I don't know, limited him in so
far as that's possible, when he is clearly just you know,
one of the best, most accomplished players on a team,
like you could see better. You might have more incur
ridging numbers in a lot of ways. But I think
you've got to you need to view his age twenty
season as like, how is how is this helping his
age twenty four season? Like I think I think so
in that sense, I think the Wizards are doing it right,
even though it makes it feel like he's gotten worse
in a lot of regards.
Speaker 1: Where I do I think where I think that they
might be getting it wrong. But again, I don't know
if this comes down to a personnel issue. Is if
just going back to Victor Webenyam former teammates and they're
they're not the same type of player. I think this
burs have done a great job of we know what
he can do away from the ball and on from
the ball both, and he's a central part of what
they're doing. But like some of that stuff helped, like
they bring in Chris Paul this year. I don't know
if the Wizards have yet given black Coolaba that opportunity
because the low hanging fruit feels like, why isn't he
cutting more? Why isn't he just moving a when he
doesn't have the ball more. I mentioned the screening thing
we've seen like some of it, but not a ton,
and it was something I noticed, or I think that
I noticed during his rookie season, so I want, like
to see more of that. And I just keep coming
back to, yeah, they're the on ball reps, like the
celt the frumps. Those are important and I'm glad they're
giving them to him, But I'm like, well, why aren't
we trying miss stuff? And it comes back to do
you think that they even have the personnel to do that? Though?
Speaker 2: I guess maybe the way of asking you, yeah, maybe
you can only like I don't know, like road test
a couple things at once, and like they could have
chosen to, yes, what you're gonna set ten screens of
game or something, and let's see what happened, Like maybe
you just can't you just have the bandwidth for that,
because you're also trying to develop Alex sar and you're
trying to see what bub Carrington can do, and you got,
you know, a bunch of other priorities. I think it's
hard to do all that at once. I'm encouraged by
the choice that they made that, like they went with
the time on the ball stuff. But yeah, I mean
it's a credit to a cool BALI that like, yeah,
you could imagine them deciding instead that it was better
to try these other three things, right, because he probably
could do those things. Like that's maybe that's where we
leave it is. I think I think I'm I think
I have to go stock down, But I think part
of the reason it's down is because he's being asked
to try stuff that might ultimately raise his stock, like
on a five year timeline. Does that make sense?
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I'll go stock neutral for the same reason
because I think that the number if you wanted to
have someone who was being used in a different way
on offense, like you might just have a more efficient player.
But like the fact that I still feel the fact
that they feel like they should be giving him this exploration.
Then coupled with not only wasn't their defensive regression off
of last year but there was like active defensive improvement
in a tougher role, Like that's big, so I'll go
stock neutral And that's more so I was. We were
both so high on block cool bold to begin with
that for me to have felt a lot better, he
would have to be shooting, like, oh, look, he's like
on self created threes, he' shooting like thirty six percent
or something. Just not now because I lied before. We
are entering the quick hitter portion of the podcast. So
going through some stock up stock down for these sophomores,
Grant Jars Walker stock up stock down, I.
Speaker 2: Think it's down overall, Like I don't we weren't super
high on him last year. I think he's got like
for me is like maximum confusion, maximum intrigue. I still
think it's like he I don't know. He played incredibly
well against the Calves the other night, made a bunch
of dumb mistakes at the same time, Like is he
a playmaker? Is he the good off ball defender who
was supposed to be in the draft. He's thirty seven
thirty eight percent as a three point shooter, Like okay,
so what's why aren't we playing him more? Like I
I he's getting squeezed now because you got to play
aeron Nee Smith and that moves Mather into the bench,
And like, I just I guess it's down because if
he were that great he we wouldn't be having to
figure out ways to get him on the floor. But
I remain intrigued. I just I don't know what a
Jarris Walker is.
Speaker 1: I and that would encapsulate what I'm gonna say, which
is also stock down. And I think one of the
bigger disconnects is based off what he was builed coming
out of college. I feel better about him as a
plug and play offensive player, which was my big one
of my bigger concerns for him, than I do about
like him becoming someone that can positively impact the defense
outside of okay, maybe we'll have some counting stats, but
he feels too all over the place at that. But
then I also he hasn't gotten a ton of reps,
like relative to where he was drafted in India right.
Speaker 2: Now, Yeah, I think the stock down puts a lot
of faith in the Pacers like correctly evaluating what he
can and can't do, which I think is a reasonable
position to take, like cause if if he were I
don't feel like he's being unjustly like marginalized. I think
it's because like he has real deficiencies and makes mistakes
and that kind of thing.
Speaker 1: And they're just like you could say there's a discrepancy
in timeline, but like they still rely on Benedic Mathren.
And I don't know how much him having the extra
year matters, but I think you could argue that, well,
I guess you have top it and Siakham and Turner.
You couldn't you argue though, that in theory, shouldn't as
a player type, shouldn't Jariss Walker be more important Indiana
than Benic Mathrene or no?
Speaker 2: Yes, And that's why the fact that he's not playing
is like a pretty gnarly omen like because he should
be like they they could use him. I just don't
think they view him as helpful yet.
Speaker 1: Next up, great Dick Grant stock ups not.
Speaker 2: Down, it's down. I think I'm at the point now
where I feel like he so coming into the I've
almost circled back to like pre draft stuff because we
doubt we had a dalliance with like, oh my god,
he's a playmaker. His assistant turnovers like one to one
this year, like that hasn't manifested after summer league stuff.
I kind of think he needs to be like a
forty three point shooter to have a positive impact because
the defense, he's getting targeted on defense all the time.
He It's just I just I just like, I don't
know what else he does well enough other than potentially
be a great shooter to like really be helpful. So
I'm I'm down. I'm down on Grady Dick. I think
I think like if the playmaking had been more real
or sustainable, I feel differently because the defense I just
don't think is going to be good enough either.
Speaker 1: I'm stock neutral on him. I think the defense, if
you're looking for someone I guess to target like in
specific action, sure, I think he's shown more as like
kind of a helper and if he's going to be
able to make some certain like plays around the basket.
So I'm not as like a super low on his defense.
I don't expect him to be a good defender. I'm
not as low on the defensive outcome. I'd be very
curious to kind of just see, like the Raptors are
another team where's I would love to see what we've
seen him do on the ball. What happens if he
has better spacing to do it with, And so I
feel better about his on ball decision making than I
would have last year. And I think we'll eventually get
to the point where they're shooting is just fine. But
from that initial high this year, remember when we did,
I think we recorded an entire segment on him, like
they found like someone kind of more of a diamond
in the rough who can work on the ball in
addition to be a sniper away from it. I don't
feel that highly of him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and maybe that's our fault is like really, we
drink a little bit of the kool aid early of
Summer League, and earlier this year we did.
Speaker 1: But you mentioned this about pajem Ski and this is
more about the players around him. But like great Dix
kind of lived through like eight different seasons when you're
looking at the available personnel.
Speaker 2: Around him, that's true. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Next up we have Cason Wallace. I could spend so
much We won't, but I could spend.
Speaker 2: So much time ask you the is he again? It's early,
This is the wrong kind of question to ask. Is
he gonna be more than a good defender who makes
Stan still threes.
Speaker 1: Probably, I just don't see them asking him to do
that when you have can do that? Do you think no,
he can't. I think like there's a lot of it.
There might be more to what he can do. I
think we saw more from him, like even probably because Okay,
Alex Caruso is not there at that point. I know
Alex Russo was banged up, uh for a good chunk
of this season. Like we kind of saw a little
bit more from him, it felt like as a driver
last year, and that we're not getting the same sample
size on where it feels like he's more likely to
be kind of displaced away and used in quote unquote
as a spacer. And I feel he's not hitting It's
like he's been a little bit better lately, I believe,
but he's not like hitting his threes at the same
clip compared to last year either. So it's it's tough,
But I don't think I haven't seen anything that makes
me think he's gonna be more dynamic on offense. And
I think it will get only harder for him to
even have the opportunity to showcase that if he's in
Oklahoma City, just because Nicola topic is eventually going to play,
and that's someone that they probably view is going to
do more on the ball.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think like if he could, if Wallace could,
if he were two inches taller or like played like
a six six sixty seven guy as opposed to he's
a shooting guard really like size wise, and like I
think my evaluation of him would be different because like
he just if you're gonna be his size and he
takes three point one, three is a game two point
seven or catch and shoot. So he's just like he
is doing nothing as an off the dribble shooter. That's
that's partly just the team. Like I like, that's just
what those are the breaks when you have Shay and Jada,
and like, you're just not going to be an on
ball type of guy. I just think like if he
were a little bigger, then then you're just a three
and D player, Because I do think he's somewhere in
between the forty two percent in the thirty three percent
of his last two years. I think like he's he's
thirty seven ish or whatever, and he has been better,
way better than that from the corners in the past.
But at his size, you gotta have a little bit
on ball type of stuff. Otherwise you're you're just not
gonna really be hugely impactful.
Speaker 1: He's he's actually a more frequent driver this year, So
I was wrong about that. Maybe the Alex Alex Caruso's
absence maybe bumped up that volume a little bit. Could
you see him being maybe a like a Malcolm Brogden type.
I know he was more dynamic at his best, but
he'll do a lot of his playmaking out of the drives.
And that's where something where I think Casey Willis has
at least shown them that he can do that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think maybe, Like so he's I got the drives,
so four point one drives up from two point three,
but he's playing seven more minutes a game, so it
gets an increase, but I don't know how substantial it is.
And his free throw attempts are down despite playing more.
Speaker 1: So like how great on drives is up? Though?
Speaker 2: Yeah? Yeah, yeah, like he So that's the thing is
like he doesn't seem like he's gonna be a finisher,
but he can be someone that's driving and maybe springing
the ball out that that's a possibility. That's that's probably
the growth area, right is Like he develops another year
of a reputation as being a great three point shooter.
Defenses react to him that way, and he can drive
and find guys. I think maybe that's like how he
adds a little marginal value.
Speaker 1: Now would that make you? Does that mean your stock
down on him or you stock neutral based on where
we were with him last year.
Speaker 2: I think I'd go stock neutral because I kind of
felt last year that he's a limited three and D
type guy.
Speaker 1: And forty on three since January first, and so, like
you said, it's probably somewhere between the forty two percent
last year and the thirty three percent this year. I
don't if he is a forty percent three point shooter.
I think it'll be sort of the of the Alex
Caruso mould last year, where it's all right, well, it's
not coming on like an insane volume.
Speaker 2: Right Yeah. I agree.
Speaker 1: Our next player, Kiante George, this is I'm gonna start here.
My stock is down because my stock was too high
last year. Like I was smitten. I think if I
asked you, what do you feel best about for his
game right now? What would be the answer.
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess it's like his potential to be
in off the dribble three point shooter that you can't
go under screens on. Maybe like that's a niche thing,
but I feel like that's of the options. I like
that the best.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would probably say like I feel the best
about his passing because wasn't the question of him coming
out like Alwy is he going to be able to
be that type of playmaker? And I think as the
jazz get better, you can envision it a little bit
more like just the live dribble things that he does.
They're not always good decisions. They want to make that clear.
I think some people just say, like I say a Collier,
like that's going to be the guy. And it might
even be I was Canta Georgia third guard type of playmaker.
And if that's a question we're asking, I have to
go stop them because I was prepared to say, like,
oh this is SOMEONEO like run your primary Rofen. I
will still say the aesthetics of his game, like in
terms of getting to his spots or getting off those
off the dribble jumpers, the efficiency just doesn't align with it.
But it doesn't like it looks like it looks so.
Speaker 2: Much better that it be like when he takes a
three off the dribble, it looks like that's what he's
supposed to be doing. You're like, yes, as if you
didn't know any of the percentages and you just walked
in the gym and saw him shoot that shot, I'd
be like, yeah, of course he should. Like that's that.
That checks out. But the numbers just aren't there.
Speaker 1: No, they're not. So I'm stocked down on him. What
did you go with?
Speaker 2: I think I'm down, although I will go back and
site we talked. Whenever we talked about him last I
had this ridiculous list of guys that had played as
much as he had and shot as much as he
had over his first two years and been as inefficient
as he's been. And there's a lot of all stars
on that list, So like, you know, the ceiling might
still be there. But again, I like you was probably
too high on him last year, so we got to
go down the This.
Speaker 1: Probably shouldn't be the thing I'm focusing on. But like,
he's just still sub thirty nine percent on the pull
up two pointers, and like those the shots that I
watched him take, and I'm like, no, like those those
like when he he takes it. I think they're gonna
go in Like those were even shots, maybe more so
than the off the dribble threes, and he's taking more
of the author dribble threes. So yes, stock down. Not
completely out on him though, which I don't think we're
completely out on anybody that we've been discussing. Brandon Miller
right risk injury, so he's not playing again this season.
Limited sample size, I.
Speaker 2: Think, well, yeah, so a couple of different years because
one kind of had one had a lot of LaMelo,
and one really didn't. The thing that jumped out to
me is that he actually was a positive defender this
year and made a massive leap. Some of that's got
to be context, but like he was an eighth percentile
defensive estimated plus minus as a rookie to sixty second
as a sophomore. Now Charlotte has been kind of a
mess all year, But like, I don't really have a
lot of questions about Miller being at the very least
a dangerous, high volume three point shooter that develops into
someone who can also you know, punish smaller like DeAndre
Hunter's style, like punished smaller matchups getting to you know,
easy two's type of thing. So the fact that the
defense is coming along, I mean, again smallest sample because
he didn't he missed more than half the year. That's
pretty encouraging to me. So where are you on him
on either of the either offense or defense.
Speaker 1: So defense, my I'm stock neutral because I thought he
was a really good defender last year too, and just
as someone who can play I mean, I know, what
is he six', nine but like the plays that he
can make around the basket as, well and then you
look at his ball denial and his ability to like
guard up and down the positional. Spectrum i'm just stock
neutral BECAUSE i don't have questions about his. Defense AND
i will say that compared to what we thought about
him coming out of, COLLEGE i am higher on his offense. Overall,
yeah BUT i don't, know like what is the wheelhouse
outside Of, okay he's going to shoot a high volume
of catch and shoot. Threes AND i find myself last
year maybe because there was so like they needed to,
experiment so my baseline was so. Low it was all,
right look at this self created shots he's making when
he gets to his spots in the middle of the.
Floor look at kind of the things he was doing
as a. PASSER i just wonder, Like, okay well can
that be scaled? Up AND i don't think we got.
IT i, mean the sample size was so low this,
year SO i think it would be unfair to him
to go stock. Down but this is someone WHO i
was hoping, That, okay if you're going to play more
time With, LaMelo will your rim pressure go? Up it.
Didn't they didn't really have a moving off the ball
a ton. Either are we going to see someone who
can draw an appreciable number more of shooting fouls when
he's on the. Ball he has, Not so, again you
can kind of look at the beginning of next year
will be an extension of his sophomore. Season i'm stock neutral,
though BECAUSE i THINK i would have confidently said at
the end of last year this is an ALL nba caliber.
PROSPECT i still believe, that but, YOU i think it'd
be an easier to sell me, on, oh, well this
is really more All star quality than ALL nba. Quality.
Speaker 2: YEAH i think The LaMelo of it all is complicating
things because Like miller's, assists the turnovers like four to
three this, year which is just like that's so it's, like,
WELL i then he can't and it was similarly bad last.
Year but it's like he's. Not as long As LaMelo is,
there he's not gonna be asked to be anything more
than a secondary facilitator Because LaMelo is gonna be on
the ball ton and the fact that, he you, know
he took a lot of threes last Year miller, did
and he took even more this, year to the point
that more than half his shots have been. THREES i
hope that he doesn't get pigeonholed as as like being
primarily just a catch and shoot, guy BECAUSE I i
do think So i'll go stock neutral for similar. Reasons
BUT i am a Little i'm a little concerned, that
like the context of the team is making it hard
to know whether he's, like you, know really being used
right or has a lot of chance for.
Speaker 1: Upside so maybe this might be the best way to
put it is that last YEAR i would have been
confident That, okay independent Of, LaMelo when you're looking, For,
okay who's the guy that will drive the offense Without
LaMelo on the, FLOOR i felt better about it being
him latier than this. SEASON i agree with, that And
i've seen some of this that because Of LaMelo AND
i think mort has even alluded to this when he's
been on the. Podcast LaMelo ball is not infringing Upon
Brandon miller's development or anyone else's and Like Brandon miller's
efficiency this year is nice day With LaMelo on Versus LaMelo,
off and so that this isn't at more, SPECIFICALLY i
Just i'm exhausted by the narrative surrounding like Just LaMelo.
Ball there's real issues to quibble. ABOUT i just feel
like we focus on the wrong things. Collectively who do
we have, Next grant Oh?
Speaker 2: Man things have changed for this, Guy Derek lively in
the SECOND i, mean how many, centers you, know young
centers were we hire on after last? Year, like not,
personally not a whole. LOT i think like, unfortunately our
evaluation of him has to depend on like somebody else,
basically because like what is he Without, luca without that
type of? Facilitator you, KNOW i, DON'T i don't, know we.
Haven't we haven't seen it because he was hurt When
luca got.
Speaker 1: TRADED i will SAY i think he was just as,
good if not, better, Defensively and we made a big
deal WHEN i remember we were doing last year Our Rookie,
awards or maybe it was A rookie stock. Report his
floor navigation away from the, ball even independent of having those,
screens that stuff is all. THERE i just don't. Know
i'll be stock neutral on. Him So i'm not gonna
say we haven't seen him play with That luka. Yet
SO i can't sit here and say he was so
dependent On, Luca like his trajectory is. Fucked AND i,
think by the, way the defensive trajectory is just still
like this is you had him on an all defense
team during our First Quarter, awards like that is STILL
i don't know if he's Defensive player of The year,
material but like the fact that he could be one
of the ten most valuable, defenders if that's, trajectory that's.
Huge i'll go stock. Neutral we haven't seen the. Sample
we haven't seen a large enough samples eyes in, general
but we have absolutely zero sample size of what does
he look like on a team that just doesn't Have
doncic at.
Speaker 2: All, YEAH i think you have to go. NEUTRAL i
LIKE i have NO i, mean we saw it like
he was the defensive anchor on a finals, Team so Like,
okay the box, Checked, like that's that's. It he's gonna
there's no reason That luca being there or not being
there will affect. THAT i just. Now the question next
year THAT i Think i'll be focused on is, like
can he Do is he a lob catcher and when
the lobs aren't, there he's got no offensive? Value or
can he become like a great? Screener can he become
like are there other? Ways is there like A Jared
jackson flip push shot arsenal that he can work on
like that kind of? Thing but, yeah it's gonna be
neutral for now because there's too much.
Speaker 1: Unknown, YEAH i mean The Anthony davis of it all,
too is, like, well what does he look like working with?
Babe arguably you could say two bigs With Anthony davis AND.
Pj washington on the.
Speaker 2: Floor yeah, RIGHT i will.
Speaker 1: Say BECAUSE i mentioned the floor navigation, BEFORE i am
confident that they could figure out how to make it.
Work BUT i don't, like is this a? Team will
they creative and run dual big pick and rolls Like
Anthony davids like WITH i don't, KNOW i don't, know
but we'll have to, say, uh super quick hitter portion
of the Podcast Julian strather with The Denver. NUGGETS i,
DON'T i mean to be, fair can you really go
stock down when he's actually playing?
Speaker 2: NOW i mean you, could because we've seen. MORE i
just don't HE'S i used it on The Grady Dick,
analysis but, LIKE i just think he needs to be an,
elite elite shooter to, matter and he's like been good,
enough but there's like nothing in the advanced metrics to recommend.
Him he's like a deeply damaging overall player by LIKE
epm and a lot of the other. CATCHALLS i just don't.
KNOW i don't know what he does that's gonna be
super helpful or justify him playing big minutes on a
team that has actually other options unless he's shooting forty,
Percent like, right That's that's kind of Where i'm. AT
i don't know if that's any different than last, year.
Speaker 1: THOUGH i feel a little bit stock up on him
BECAUSE i have, questions like the volume of shooting is
gonna be, There we'll go in. It what is he
at thirty six percent from three Since january? First will
that go? In but there's been a little, bit there's
been a few more layers to his game where it's
like as a driver That i've been a little bit
more intrigued, by is someone like moving away off the.
BALL i thought he's been a little bit better and
so like, That i'm gonna go slightly stock up even
like kind of handling THE nba physicality in certain. Instances
i'm gonna go a slight stock. Up but that's not
an easy one for.
Speaker 2: ME i, MEAN i guess he is actually making more
shots and playing more Like i'll go stock, Up BUT
i guess you said it at the. Start it's just
like it was so bad last.
Speaker 1: Year where was there to Go Ben sheppard grew and
stock up or stock? Dam what is a how?
Speaker 2: Come for the two pacers we've talked, ABOUT i have to,
say like what is a what is A Jaris? Walker
what is A Ben? SHEPHARD i think like kind of
a who, home like slightly above league average three point
shooter THAT i think his his defense is the carrying
skill and he can be like an eighth, guy which
is sort of what he, is uh when The pacers
are a. WHOLE i kind of felt that way last,
Year So i'm leaning neutral on.
Speaker 1: Him, Yeah i'm stock way. Up OKAY i as a
defender like the types of assignments he shouldered in his,
minutes huge and a better three point shooter THAN i
would have. Expected and we talked about. HIM i think
was coming out Of Summer, league like the defense of
grit and that being able to translate and the fact
that it has against LIKE i would, say outside assignment's,
point especially when The pacers were really banged up on the.
Perimeter remember they were dealing with injuries To naismith And
nemhard at one. Point if you, think and you said,
it if you think he's gonna be a slightly above
average like three point shooter relative of the, league my
stock is got his way up for him, HIM i
mean the mustache to marry him for, THAT i.
Speaker 2: Was just gonna, SAY i think it's the mustache that's
like throwing. Me It's. God we said this exact same.
Time actruly dubious with THE i don't trust. HIM i
don't trust.
Speaker 1: Him who we got coming up here?
Speaker 2: Next Man hi May hawk as what was He he
was like top sixth and rookie of the year and
like top ten and six man last year and found
himself out of the rotation for a. CHUNK i think
The jovic injury should get him more. Chances broken, record
it's the shooting under thirty percent from three this. Year
it was only like thirty two last. YEAR i think
that's offset by like he has he's, though he's playing
less free throw rates, up more rebounds assistant steals per.
Minute so that's illustrative of, like you, know he came
in billed as like he's going to do everything on
the margins to help you. Win so he's delivered on,
that but it's just the shooting looks like a real.
Problem think he's been better of. LATE i don't have
the splits in front of, me but if he again
we keep coming back to this now because we're talking
about role, players he needs to be close to the
league average as a three point. SHOOTER i, think or you,
know at least in the like low, thirties like thirty,
one thirty, two thirty. THREE a real.
Speaker 1: Volume, though because he had thirty four point two percent
Since january, first but it's two attempts per game and
that's just.
Speaker 2: Not, yeah, yeah, NO i THINK i think he just
the do it all. Game you, know one of the
components of do it all needs to be make like
a decent number of shots to where the defense cares about.
Speaker 1: YOU i ALSO i have more questions of him about
overall is plug and play offensively THAN i did, before,
Right and that was like sort of The so it's
like even independent of the three point, shooting if you
need him to have the ball in his hands or
he has to punish a mismatch in the, post like, What,
okay there's value in, that but like is he a
good enough defender to say, like, oh we need to do?
This and he's how old is he? Now so he's
at like what would be the upside of? This so
he's twenty, four this is age twenty four? Season what
are We what type of upside are you tapping into?
There i'm stocked. Down could still be a very good.
Player but we were pretty, adamant or at LEAST i
was pretty, adamant like when we were about all like oh,
no like this someone's gonna be really. Good he's gonna
be like connective at both ends of the, floor and
he's gonna contribute at a high level to a. Winner And
i've kind of like that script for, Me i'm questioning,
everything almost EVERYTHING i thought about him last.
Speaker 2: Year, YEAH i mean you count on him not getting
a whole lot better because of the, Age like that's
what the draft. Profile oh he's gonna help you win,
now but like this is what he. Is you don't
count on that guy getting worse as a, sophomore which
is what's. Happened so you got it's got to be stocked.
Speaker 1: Down do you give him any grace because of what
happened to? Me like for the first, well have a little,
bit SO i think he could get back to last
year's shooting and then maybe you're talking about Another yeah
he's back in, like oh he's a really good six seventh,
guy but that's where we were last, year so he's
and he's below that at the. MOMENT i don't think
he can be better than he was as a, rookie
like in a significant. Way, look the fact That i'm
wondering If haywood High smith is more valuable to The
heat at this, POINT i feel like slightly. Problematic So
i'll go stock down here for it. Though and it
was real snubs that you think that we should have
been been talking.
Speaker 2: About Anthony black stock down because he can't. Shoot but
we kind of maybe stock neutral because we knew that.
Already that's about.
Speaker 1: It, YEAH i mean you don't feel any guilt for
not talking About geese anto us.
Speaker 2: A little bit or oh we've got another hour, Forty
sure you.
Speaker 1: Go speaking of stock, up the Gees antos podcast begins right.
Now are you ready out of? Here?
Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks that's gonna do. It, remember as, always rate,
review subscribe wherever you're listening to. This if you're watching
it on, YouTube leave us a. Comment let us know
what you think About Ben shepherd's mustache and how it
affects his stock. Report did we weigh it too heavily
not heavily? Enough who's to? Say join our discord links for.
That in YouTube and podcast, description we were kicking around
some guest player, stuff maybe making some return in some.
Form that would be a great place to keep her
breast of. That what? Else, YEAH i think that's gonna do.
It closed with shouts Of FRANKLIN. A. Kine apologies To
Jared allen