WEBVTT 1 00:00:31.079 --> 00:00:33.920 Welcome to mid Rats with sal from Commander Salamander, an 2 00:00:33.960 --> 00:00:37.280 Eagle one from Eagle Speak at Seer Shore. You're home 3 00:00:37.280 --> 00:00:40.640 for a discussion of national security issues and all things maritime, 4 00:00:41.759 --> 00:00:44.799 and good day everybody. Glad to have you on board. 5 00:00:45.320 --> 00:00:48.159 If we are live today as we usually are, and 6 00:00:48.520 --> 00:00:50.479 if you are with us live, i'd like to extend 7 00:00:50.520 --> 00:00:53.039 an invitation for you to find the chat room. How 8 00:00:53.079 --> 00:00:54.600 you can go ahead and roll in there if you 9 00:00:54.640 --> 00:00:57.119 are so inclined. We'll monitor it during the course of 10 00:00:57.159 --> 00:01:00.719 the show. 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And let's go ahead and dive into today's show. 23 00:01:35.239 --> 00:01:37.400 And here we are just a little more than a 24 00:01:37.480 --> 00:01:40.680 month into the Trump administration, and much of the attention 25 00:01:40.879 --> 00:01:44.239 from a diplomatic and a national security point of view 26 00:01:44.640 --> 00:01:46.920 in the first thirty days, and it's been a busy 27 00:01:46.959 --> 00:01:51.519 thirty days, has been focused on Europe in the Middle East, 28 00:01:51.560 --> 00:01:54.840 the two regions that always seem to divert our focus 29 00:01:55.079 --> 00:01:59.079 for America's greatest competitor in a global sense, and especially 30 00:01:59.120 --> 00:02:01.879 in the Pacific, and that's the People's Republic of China. 31 00:02:02.560 --> 00:02:04.359 We often think of the challenge in terms of the 32 00:02:04.439 --> 00:02:07.799 most obvious area as just the Pacific, but it extends 33 00:02:07.840 --> 00:02:11.800 from the Arctic to Africa, Central and South America, and 34 00:02:12.039 --> 00:02:14.680 Europe in the Middle East. They are really putting forward 35 00:02:15.080 --> 00:02:19.439 a global challenge to what has been the post war normal. 36 00:02:19.639 --> 00:02:21.719 Is the America, with a little bit of a challenge 37 00:02:21.719 --> 00:02:24.159 from a thing called the Civic Union, pretty much was 38 00:02:24.199 --> 00:02:28.560 able to lead and set the international world order. But 39 00:02:29.080 --> 00:02:32.039 it's gone even beyond that now. They are also challenging 40 00:02:32.120 --> 00:02:34.800 us in another area that we thought that we had 41 00:02:34.800 --> 00:02:38.680 the grip on, and that is space from near Earth 42 00:02:38.840 --> 00:02:41.680 orbit out to the Moon and beyond. China is not 43 00:02:41.759 --> 00:02:46.400 going to seede that to American primacy forever either and 44 00:02:46.479 --> 00:02:49.280 today we're going to have a returning guest coming on 45 00:02:49.360 --> 00:02:52.159 board to discuss this and more, Dean Chang. He is 46 00:02:52.199 --> 00:02:55.199 currently the non Resident Fellow at the Potomac Institute for 47 00:02:55.280 --> 00:02:58.919 Policy Studies, a Senior Advisor with the US Institute for Peace, 48 00:02:59.240 --> 00:03:02.319 and a non resident Fellow with the George Washington University 49 00:03:02.560 --> 00:03:05.759 Space Policy Institute. Dean, welcome back. 50 00:03:05.599 --> 00:03:08.000 To midrap Thank you very much for having me again. 51 00:03:08.800 --> 00:03:11.520 Hey, it's great to have you on board. And I 52 00:03:11.560 --> 00:03:14.439 think we did a great show in the pre show conversation. 53 00:03:14.719 --> 00:03:16.719 We'll try to wrap that up as best as we can, 54 00:03:17.439 --> 00:03:19.759 but let's just go ahead and start with a big 55 00:03:19.800 --> 00:03:23.400 scene setter. Obviously, the you know, the big presence of 56 00:03:23.400 --> 00:03:25.400 the room is, like I said in the intro, we 57 00:03:25.560 --> 00:03:29.000 are a little more than a month into the Trump 58 00:03:29.039 --> 00:03:32.479 administration and with a lot but not all, of his 59 00:03:32.840 --> 00:03:36.719 policy people in place. Already a lot of things are 60 00:03:36.800 --> 00:03:39.840 moving on the chessboard. What have you seen that has 61 00:03:39.919 --> 00:03:41.319 kind of perked your ears up? 62 00:03:42.560 --> 00:03:45.919 So I think a couple of things have been striking 63 00:03:46.280 --> 00:03:49.199 in the first month with regards to the Trump administration 64 00:03:49.400 --> 00:03:52.759 and Asia. The first one is more than just Asia. 65 00:03:52.800 --> 00:03:57.360 It's just the broad turmoil slash volatility that's been going 66 00:03:57.360 --> 00:04:00.479 on at DoD, the removal of various members of the 67 00:04:00.520 --> 00:04:03.360 Joint Chiefs, et cetera, which of course is the president's right. 68 00:04:03.400 --> 00:04:05.800 I mean, he gets to have his military advisors. But 69 00:04:06.039 --> 00:04:09.599 I think that it's going to raise questions in Beijing, 70 00:04:09.879 --> 00:04:14.599 in Tokyo, in Taipei, what does this mean for where. 71 00:04:14.439 --> 00:04:16.720 Is the US going to go in the Pacific. 72 00:04:16.879 --> 00:04:19.800 The second thing that was very striking was the State 73 00:04:19.839 --> 00:04:23.800 Department's removal of the phrase that the United States opposes 74 00:04:23.920 --> 00:04:27.720 Taiwan independence. That's been part of our formula for how 75 00:04:27.759 --> 00:04:31.079 we view the Taiwan Straits for decades. We want a 76 00:04:31.160 --> 00:04:34.560 peaceful resolution of the Taiwan's rates issue. We do not 77 00:04:34.680 --> 00:04:37.959 want a unilateral response by either side, which in the 78 00:04:38.000 --> 00:04:40.920 past basically meant we don't want Taiwan declaring independence and 79 00:04:40.959 --> 00:04:43.319 we don't want Beijing invading the island. Now we're saying 80 00:04:43.560 --> 00:04:45.879 we've dropped the line saying we oppose in events we 81 00:04:45.879 --> 00:04:48.639 haven't command, and said we support it. But Beijing, not 82 00:04:48.759 --> 00:04:53.839 surprisingly has strongly protested this because from Beijing's perspective, what 83 00:04:53.879 --> 00:04:56.360 they really want is a formal US statement saying we 84 00:04:56.519 --> 00:05:02.519 oppose Taiwan independence under all circum we will never support 85 00:05:02.560 --> 00:05:05.439 it because in the Chinese view, if we would do that, 86 00:05:05.600 --> 00:05:08.759 it would cut the legs out from Taipei and basically say, 87 00:05:08.920 --> 00:05:11.160 you know what, you guys really need to negotiate a 88 00:05:11.240 --> 00:05:15.199 deal which ultimately we'll see reunification. So from Beijing's perspective, 89 00:05:15.279 --> 00:05:17.720 this is a huge, huge. 90 00:05:17.439 --> 00:05:19.920 Symbol, if not outright policy delta. 91 00:05:19.959 --> 00:05:23.759 A third thing is the issue of TikTok. President Trump 92 00:05:23.920 --> 00:05:27.600 seems to have extended a lifeline to TikTok, which is 93 00:05:27.680 --> 00:05:30.040 kind of interesting. Now my personal opinion, I want to 94 00:05:30.079 --> 00:05:32.879 emphasize the Trump administration has not talked to me personally, 95 00:05:32.959 --> 00:05:35.480 so this is pure speculation on my partners. I think 96 00:05:35.519 --> 00:05:38.000 this is actually a very interesting move because what it 97 00:05:38.319 --> 00:05:42.199 basically said was, look, we're still willing to buy TikTok. 98 00:05:42.639 --> 00:05:44.920 It's going to be on American terms. Above all, you're 99 00:05:44.920 --> 00:05:46.959 gonna have to move the data out of China. You 100 00:05:47.000 --> 00:05:49.720 can't so that you guys can't just go rifling through 101 00:05:49.720 --> 00:05:53.519 it as you already have. If the Chinese turned down 102 00:05:53.600 --> 00:05:55.839 this sale, which they have said they are going to, 103 00:05:56.879 --> 00:06:00.800 then it pretty clearly casts the Chinese and a negative light. 104 00:06:01.759 --> 00:06:04.600 It basically is saying we're willing to work with you. You're 105 00:06:04.360 --> 00:06:06.959 the ones who are insisting you need access to this 106 00:06:07.040 --> 00:06:09.240 data and why is that? And then the last part, 107 00:06:09.319 --> 00:06:10.839 and this just came out in the last few days, 108 00:06:11.079 --> 00:06:14.600 is the apparent view of mister Musk, who is obviously 109 00:06:14.639 --> 00:06:17.240 key advisory Donald Trump to bypass the Moon and go 110 00:06:17.319 --> 00:06:20.839 directly to Mars. And why this is striking to me is, 111 00:06:20.879 --> 00:06:24.360 on the one hand, I certainly understand mister Musk's interest 112 00:06:24.439 --> 00:06:28.199 and focus on Mars, but I think that position potentially 113 00:06:28.319 --> 00:06:32.560 raises the question about cis lunar governance and who is 114 00:06:32.600 --> 00:06:35.000 going to manage that enormous amount of space that you 115 00:06:35.040 --> 00:06:37.800 have to transit through on your way out to Mars. 116 00:06:37.920 --> 00:06:41.600 Because China has made very clear it's very interested in 117 00:06:41.839 --> 00:06:45.560 having an outsize role in the volume of space between 118 00:06:45.560 --> 00:06:46.439 the Earth and the Moon. 119 00:06:46.800 --> 00:06:49.920 China seems to want to rewrite the rules of the 120 00:06:49.959 --> 00:06:53.680 international order in China's favor, and I think what your 121 00:06:53.720 --> 00:06:57.040 suggesting is that once they get there, there is an 122 00:06:57.120 --> 00:07:00.519 outer Space treaty. But just as I think you point 123 00:07:00.560 --> 00:07:06.480 out one of your articles, they've interpreted the order, the 124 00:07:06.920 --> 00:07:10.879 rules governing the Law of the Sea that in China's favor, 125 00:07:10.959 --> 00:07:12.959 that they would do the same thing with the with 126 00:07:13.079 --> 00:07:17.120 the Outer Space treaty. And we assume that they always 127 00:07:17.519 --> 00:07:20.800 look at everything, probably naturally from the Chinese perspective. What 128 00:07:20.920 --> 00:07:23.600 gives us the most leverage and makes us look like 129 00:07:23.639 --> 00:07:28.000 we're the reasonable people in the room, just reading reading 130 00:07:28.000 --> 00:07:31.879 the law the way it should be read according to us. 131 00:07:32.759 --> 00:07:36.040 Well, I mean, so, first off, the Chinese are not 132 00:07:36.319 --> 00:07:39.000 the Russians. The Russians and I'm not a Russia expert, 133 00:07:39.040 --> 00:07:41.879 but this is my impression. The Russians are okay with anarchy, 134 00:07:42.519 --> 00:07:46.399 just create chaos. And the Chinese are big believers in order. 135 00:07:46.600 --> 00:07:49.240 You know, the joke about old Chinese saying, may you 136 00:07:49.279 --> 00:07:51.360 live in interesting times, the point of that is may 137 00:07:51.519 --> 00:07:53.360 you know it's a curse, because it's may you live 138 00:07:53.360 --> 00:07:56.839 in times that are unpredicted. So the Chinese believe in 139 00:07:56.839 --> 00:07:59.720 a rules based international order. Also, the big question here 140 00:07:59.759 --> 00:08:03.079 is whose rules, Who writes the rules? And one of 141 00:08:03.160 --> 00:08:06.199 the things to think about particular for cis lunar space, 142 00:08:06.360 --> 00:08:10.439 much as with the world's oceans, is whose rules should apply, 143 00:08:10.759 --> 00:08:14.079 And with regards to cis lunar space, where the Chinese 144 00:08:14.120 --> 00:08:16.399 are saying we are going to go to the Moon, 145 00:08:17.360 --> 00:08:19.720 we are going to land there, but more importantly, we 146 00:08:19.759 --> 00:08:23.680 are thinking about establishing a long term presence there. If 147 00:08:23.720 --> 00:08:28.360 you fly from Barcelona to Bangkok, two countries where English 148 00:08:28.439 --> 00:08:31.600 is not the native land, from takeoff to landing, in 149 00:08:31.600 --> 00:08:36.519 the cockpit cross international air traffic control, the language is English. 150 00:08:36.639 --> 00:08:39.679 It doesn't matter what airline you fly, it doesn't matter 151 00:08:39.720 --> 00:08:44.320 what nationality the pilots are. Everyone speaks English. And I 152 00:08:44.360 --> 00:08:47.679 think what the Chinese are hoping to achieve by dominating 153 00:08:47.720 --> 00:08:50.480 cis lunar space here to the Moon and having a 154 00:08:50.559 --> 00:08:53.639 majority of flights, by setting up a long term presence 155 00:08:53.679 --> 00:08:56.840 on the Moon, by setting up traffic and therefore space 156 00:08:56.919 --> 00:09:00.679 traffic management. They want the language of space traffic to 157 00:09:00.720 --> 00:09:05.360 be Chinese. And that has political implications, that has power implications. 158 00:09:05.480 --> 00:09:08.799 That's a huge messaging issue. And I don't know whether 159 00:09:08.840 --> 00:09:13.240 we're not us going to Mars, huge achievement, major epic 160 00:09:13.399 --> 00:09:17.360 of human achievement, is necessarily going to be enough to 161 00:09:17.440 --> 00:09:21.360 say yeah, and therefore the language of space travel will 162 00:09:21.399 --> 00:09:22.480 necessarily be in. 163 00:09:25.480 --> 00:09:33.360 I think another underappreciated is I share your concern with us, 164 00:09:33.679 --> 00:09:36.679 not so much as surrendering, but neglecting kind of like 165 00:09:36.720 --> 00:09:38.639 how we've done with some of the small island nations 166 00:09:38.679 --> 00:09:43.000 in the Western Pacific, that if we neglect the Moon 167 00:09:43.240 --> 00:09:48.039 and travel to and front the moon everything you described, 168 00:09:48.639 --> 00:09:50.399 if you're trying to get an idea, if you let 169 00:09:50.519 --> 00:09:52.919 China not only get to the Moon, but be there 170 00:09:53.039 --> 00:09:56.000 the Moon by themselves, if you look at what they've 171 00:09:56.120 --> 00:09:59.679 done and the precedent they have established in South China, 172 00:10:00.159 --> 00:10:05.639 see with shoals into islands and bases. We were here, 173 00:10:06.000 --> 00:10:08.679 We'll do what we want to, I dare you, et cetera, 174 00:10:08.759 --> 00:10:11.840 et cetera. They have this mindset, they have this precedence. 175 00:10:12.320 --> 00:10:15.120 People think that if they go to the Moon, they'll 176 00:10:15.159 --> 00:10:17.799 have their little base and that'll be it. They can 177 00:10:18.000 --> 00:10:21.399 create their own precedence in their own reality. And it 178 00:10:21.480 --> 00:10:24.759 keeps popping into the back of my head that if 179 00:10:24.799 --> 00:10:29.000 the Chinese were able to establish as the primary full 180 00:10:29.039 --> 00:10:33.240 time presence on the Moon, that international order they talk 181 00:10:33.279 --> 00:10:36.840 about on planet Earth that they didn't have a say 182 00:10:37.080 --> 00:10:41.039 in developing, they show up on the Moon. You know, 183 00:10:41.240 --> 00:10:43.919 what is their motivation to want to stick to a 184 00:10:44.000 --> 00:10:49.000 lunar policy that the United States and a defunct empire 185 00:10:49.080 --> 00:10:53.960 called the Soviet Union established in the previous century. That really, 186 00:10:53.960 --> 00:10:57.120 if you're looking at what do things look like in 187 00:10:57.240 --> 00:11:00.519 twenty one hundred twenty one fifty, and that to me 188 00:11:00.759 --> 00:11:02.440 is a blinking red light. 189 00:11:03.759 --> 00:11:08.120 Absolutely, it's useful. The South China see example is particularly 190 00:11:08.159 --> 00:11:13.559 important because of notice how the Chinese first reclaim shoals 191 00:11:13.840 --> 00:11:16.919 and turn them into islands, but once it became islands, 192 00:11:17.039 --> 00:11:20.480 essentially started saying, even though they're artificial, they get all 193 00:11:20.559 --> 00:11:23.240 the rights and privileges of a real island. What does 194 00:11:23.240 --> 00:11:28.240 that mean. That means territorial waters, that means exclusive economic zones, 195 00:11:28.480 --> 00:11:32.440 That means literally keep out zones for other people's navies. 196 00:11:32.559 --> 00:11:34.639 One of the things that's really striking was a few 197 00:11:34.720 --> 00:11:37.919 years back that one of the heads of sorry, the 198 00:11:37.960 --> 00:11:41.759 head of one of China's state owned oil enterprises, came 199 00:11:41.759 --> 00:11:45.480 out and said that oil drilling rigs are pieces of 200 00:11:45.759 --> 00:11:50.919 mobile national territory. Now nobody else makes that argument, but 201 00:11:51.000 --> 00:11:55.840 the implication was that wherever we stick this thing, potentially 202 00:11:55.919 --> 00:12:01.240 it should have some interesting claims. Now with the Moon, 203 00:12:01.399 --> 00:12:05.200 with other space bodies, you're not supposed to have sovereignty. 204 00:12:05.240 --> 00:12:07.279 You can't claim the Moon as a piece of the 205 00:12:07.360 --> 00:12:09.639 United States for China, and that is part of the 206 00:12:09.720 --> 00:12:13.039 Outer Space Treaty, but there are health and safety regulations 207 00:12:13.120 --> 00:12:16.759 that could be invoked that. For example, because lunar dust 208 00:12:16.919 --> 00:12:19.600 has somewhat different properties than earth dust gets everywhere, is 209 00:12:19.799 --> 00:12:23.200 very very abrasive, et cetera. The Chinese could recently say, look, 210 00:12:23.279 --> 00:12:25.559 wherever it is that we're going to set up a base, 211 00:12:25.799 --> 00:12:28.159 we want to keep out zone of let's say ten 212 00:12:28.240 --> 00:12:30.600 or twenty miles because the dust that will be kicked 213 00:12:30.679 --> 00:12:34.399 up by landing craft but interfere with the health and 214 00:12:34.440 --> 00:12:38.279 safety of the operations. Now, if I put a Chinese 215 00:12:38.360 --> 00:12:41.039 lunar base at one of the key craters at the 216 00:12:41.080 --> 00:12:44.080 south pole of the Moon, where we think there is water, 217 00:12:44.320 --> 00:12:48.799 you could, in theory start creating de facto sovereignty by saying, hey, 218 00:12:49.240 --> 00:12:51.799 this area you need to keep out because of health 219 00:12:51.799 --> 00:12:55.120 and safety reasons. Would the Chinese do that? We're watching 220 00:12:55.159 --> 00:12:58.840 them do something with a far better established set of laws, 221 00:12:58.879 --> 00:13:01.360 because there's been maritime law long before the Unconvention of 222 00:13:01.360 --> 00:13:03.279 the Law of the Sea, and the Chinese are clearly 223 00:13:03.399 --> 00:13:06.840 violating those. So this is this is not without precedent, 224 00:13:07.000 --> 00:13:10.440 and the Chinese have an entire set of doctrinal political 225 00:13:10.480 --> 00:13:14.559 warfare that talks about using legal means, public opinion means, 226 00:13:14.559 --> 00:13:17.519 et cetera, to shape and influence the international situation. 227 00:13:20.600 --> 00:13:23.639 Yeah, it I think in another one. I hadn't really 228 00:13:23.679 --> 00:13:25.840 thought about this. But if they make the same claim 229 00:13:26.240 --> 00:13:28.840 the same about the mobile oil ridge, that if they 230 00:13:28.919 --> 00:13:34.240 stationed a geosynchronous satellite out there or a space station 231 00:13:34.840 --> 00:13:37.879 and then say, you know, this is our sovereign territory 232 00:13:38.000 --> 00:13:40.200 and for and I think you point out for flight 233 00:13:40.279 --> 00:13:43.679 safety reasons, for travel reasons, you know you can't get 234 00:13:43.720 --> 00:13:48.399 within X number of miles feet whatever. You know, that 235 00:13:48.480 --> 00:13:52.080 allow would allow a party to claim big chunks of space, 236 00:13:52.159 --> 00:13:56.399 particularly interesting areas of of off Earth where we need 237 00:13:56.440 --> 00:14:02.600 to have we have the various h stable places where 238 00:14:02.759 --> 00:14:05.519 satellite can can sit without having to in between the 239 00:14:05.720 --> 00:14:08.480 gravitational fields of the Moon and the and the Earth 240 00:14:08.519 --> 00:14:11.639 and other things. Talk about that a little bit. 241 00:14:12.720 --> 00:14:15.320 So one of the interesting things the Chinese have done 242 00:14:15.360 --> 00:14:17.919 in the last year or so is they filed a 243 00:14:18.039 --> 00:14:21.519 set of claims against SpaceX and Starlink. And what they 244 00:14:21.600 --> 00:14:24.720 said was, hey, we have a Chinese space station, it 245 00:14:24.840 --> 00:14:28.159 is staffed, it's got people on board, and your Startlink 246 00:14:28.159 --> 00:14:31.399 satellites jeopardized it. Now what was interesting about this was 247 00:14:31.840 --> 00:14:36.200 they didn't file an immediate claim, and they filed it 248 00:14:36.240 --> 00:14:40.360 through the United Nations, whereas our Space Forces and Space 249 00:14:40.399 --> 00:14:43.879 Command will literally pick up the phone and we'll call 250 00:14:43.960 --> 00:14:47.720 people and we'll email people and say, hey, we believe 251 00:14:47.759 --> 00:14:51.279 that satellite one and satellite two, your satellite too, are 252 00:14:51.320 --> 00:14:54.600 potentially going to have what's termed a conjunction event, aka 253 00:14:54.600 --> 00:14:57.000 a collision. You need to do you both need to 254 00:14:57.000 --> 00:15:00.279 do something about this. So the Chinese, what is the 255 00:15:00.320 --> 00:15:02.919 point of their action? It was to set the stage 256 00:15:02.960 --> 00:15:07.639 for criticizing Startling, which they really hate for a variety 257 00:15:07.639 --> 00:15:10.159 of reasons, having to do with how it's influential it's 258 00:15:10.200 --> 00:15:14.039 been in Ukraine, and how a private company can have 259 00:15:14.080 --> 00:15:18.679 strategic effects. But what they essentially said was you are 260 00:15:18.799 --> 00:15:22.080 posing a threat to the health and safety of our 261 00:15:22.200 --> 00:15:28.080 space station, and your constellation is the problem. It is 262 00:15:28.879 --> 00:15:32.600 an interesting question to your initial laydown. 263 00:15:32.679 --> 00:15:34.960 If you have let's say a ten or. 264 00:15:34.879 --> 00:15:39.080 Twenty mile keepout zone for health and safety reasons, if 265 00:15:39.120 --> 00:15:42.480 you started daisy chaining satellites, what would be the effect. 266 00:15:42.639 --> 00:15:45.039 And one of the interesting problems here is that with 267 00:15:45.120 --> 00:15:48.840 the Chinese, much of their space enterprise is run through 268 00:15:48.879 --> 00:15:51.559 state owned enterprises. That is to say, companies that aren't 269 00:15:51.600 --> 00:15:53.960 looking to make a profit. A satellite that doesn't go 270 00:15:54.000 --> 00:15:56.799 into orbit doesn't generate income. Most of the time, you 271 00:15:56.799 --> 00:15:59.200 don't put something like that up there. You don't build 272 00:15:59.240 --> 00:16:03.720 extra satellite. At most you might have one with the Chinese. 273 00:16:03.919 --> 00:16:07.360 Because there are space companies, many of them are not 274 00:16:07.600 --> 00:16:11.639 looking to make a profit, they can afford to do 275 00:16:11.759 --> 00:16:15.720 things that we would consider inefficient because that means they've 276 00:16:15.759 --> 00:16:19.120 got redundancies, they've got resilience, and they've got the ability 277 00:16:19.200 --> 00:16:24.559 to therefore fairly quickly deploy additional satellites in peace time 278 00:16:24.759 --> 00:16:27.159 that could be to make up for failures in wartime. 279 00:16:27.519 --> 00:16:30.320 That's a war reserve, and that's part of actually how 280 00:16:30.360 --> 00:16:34.000 they write about military space activities. One of the things 281 00:16:34.039 --> 00:16:36.080 they talk about is the need to be able to 282 00:16:36.559 --> 00:16:40.720 rapidly deploy additional capabilities, if only for the reason of 283 00:16:40.840 --> 00:16:43.399 making the adversaries calculations go out the window. If you 284 00:16:43.440 --> 00:16:47.639 had been projecting eight radar observation satellites and all of 285 00:16:47.679 --> 00:16:50.919 a sudden the Chinese feel twelve, your targeting and your 286 00:16:51.039 --> 00:16:55.360 prioritizations kind of gets screwed up. So there's all sorts 287 00:16:55.399 --> 00:16:57.759 of things that the Chinese are thinking about in terms 288 00:16:57.840 --> 00:17:03.200 of seriously, how would I achieve space dominance in time 289 00:17:03.200 --> 00:17:05.119 of crisis and in time of war. 290 00:17:06.640 --> 00:17:10.480 I could see why SpaceX would upset the Chinese for 291 00:17:10.480 --> 00:17:12.920 a variety of reasons, one of which not only is 292 00:17:12.920 --> 00:17:17.519 it private enterprise, but it's a little unpredictable because it 293 00:17:17.640 --> 00:17:23.079 moves fast, it achieves fast, it's willing to you know, 294 00:17:23.079 --> 00:17:27.440 there's a big difference between as they're building Starship, they'll 295 00:17:27.480 --> 00:17:29.880 publicly say we're gonna make this big launch, and there's 296 00:17:29.880 --> 00:17:31.400 a good chance that's going to blow up, but we'll 297 00:17:31.440 --> 00:17:34.240 learn from it. No big deal, as opposed to how 298 00:17:34.440 --> 00:17:39.119 tightly held a lot of the evolutionary developments in the 299 00:17:39.119 --> 00:17:43.480 PRC rocket program has been. They don't celebrate that kind 300 00:17:43.519 --> 00:17:47.119 of creative destruction, so to speak, because they seem to 301 00:17:47.160 --> 00:17:52.599 have a very orderly, cautious, and steady program. You outlined 302 00:17:52.759 --> 00:17:55.640 in your paper on China that will I think we 303 00:17:55.680 --> 00:17:57.599 can link to it in the show notes. I'll try 304 00:17:57.599 --> 00:18:02.319 to about how their program began in nineteen fifty eight 305 00:18:02.400 --> 00:18:07.519 with a US trained scientist, and they have iteratively developed 306 00:18:07.559 --> 00:18:11.400 and developed, and I think people don't have in their 307 00:18:11.440 --> 00:18:17.000 mind the twenty twenty five reality of what China's capabilities 308 00:18:17.039 --> 00:18:19.599 are in space because a lot of people and I'd 309 00:18:19.640 --> 00:18:23.039 be guilty of this myself, build default back to oh yeah, 310 00:18:23.160 --> 00:18:26.200 the Chinese rocket program back in the nineties with the 311 00:18:26.279 --> 00:18:30.960 Coffee Clatch era where they Laurel Aerospace taught them how 312 00:18:31.039 --> 00:18:35.000 to do multiple satellites on a launch. They have not 313 00:18:36.400 --> 00:18:41.839 sat on their heels. They have advanced bit by bit, 314 00:18:42.519 --> 00:18:45.920 steady by steady. Definitely not in a SpaceX way. But 315 00:18:46.960 --> 00:18:49.599 where would you what's a good way to describe to 316 00:18:49.680 --> 00:18:53.759 people that haven't been tracking on Chinese progress where they 317 00:18:53.799 --> 00:19:00.640 are relative to that International Space Station snapshot that everybody's 318 00:19:00.720 --> 00:19:02.519 used to from the American point of view. 319 00:19:03.880 --> 00:19:06.640 To put it bluntly, the number two space power in 320 00:19:06.680 --> 00:19:09.160 the world is China. It is not Russia, it is 321 00:19:09.240 --> 00:19:09.839 not Europe. 322 00:19:09.960 --> 00:19:10.599 It is China. 323 00:19:10.759 --> 00:19:15.599 China has a full portfolio of every space capability pretty 324 00:19:15.680 --> 00:19:18.160 much that we have, which puts them ahead of Europe, 325 00:19:18.200 --> 00:19:21.640 which has no human rated, man rated launch vehicle. They 326 00:19:21.680 --> 00:19:24.240 do not have their own ability to put people in space. 327 00:19:24.559 --> 00:19:26.920 They have way more money than the Russians, and so 328 00:19:27.200 --> 00:19:29.960 while the Russians in the Soviet Europe produced of a 329 00:19:29.960 --> 00:19:33.359 wide variety of satellites. Their launch vehicles are pretty much 330 00:19:33.359 --> 00:19:36.640 old designs. There's nothing new that we can tell on 331 00:19:36.720 --> 00:19:40.240 the way, at least in the open source. Their satellite constellations, 332 00:19:40.359 --> 00:19:42.680 some of them are fully populated, a bunch of them 333 00:19:42.720 --> 00:19:46.039 have sort of eroded. But the Chinese I mean weather, 334 00:19:46.279 --> 00:19:51.920 position and timing, communications, earth observation, anti satellite systems. They 335 00:19:52.599 --> 00:19:54.880 have the full portfolio and of course the ability to 336 00:19:55.319 --> 00:19:58.240 put their own astronauts in orbit on something to think 337 00:19:58.279 --> 00:20:03.640 about here. As of twenty team, every shot we have 338 00:20:04.000 --> 00:20:09.079 of Mars from Mars has been American, but in I 339 00:20:09.160 --> 00:20:13.599 believe it was twenty twenty one the Chinese successfully on 340 00:20:13.680 --> 00:20:18.720 their first try, landed a lander on the Martian surface 341 00:20:18.799 --> 00:20:21.680 and beam back photographs. So they have done on their 342 00:20:21.720 --> 00:20:24.599 first try something nobody did, including us, which is to 343 00:20:24.640 --> 00:20:27.319 successfully land on Mars and evade Martian air defense. But 344 00:20:27.519 --> 00:20:32.279 second of all, they have done something that Europe, Russia, Japan, 345 00:20:32.559 --> 00:20:33.240 India have. 346 00:20:33.319 --> 00:20:35.119 Not been able to do. Only we have been able to. 347 00:20:35.119 --> 00:20:37.759 Do, which is land successfully on Mars and beam back 348 00:20:37.799 --> 00:20:39.960 photos at all. So that should give you a sense 349 00:20:40.119 --> 00:20:43.480 of where the Chinese are technology was, and by the way, 350 00:20:43.599 --> 00:20:45.200 have they stolen some of that technology? 351 00:20:45.240 --> 00:20:45.839 Absolutely? 352 00:20:46.160 --> 00:20:49.279 But it is a very very dangerous belief that oh, 353 00:20:49.599 --> 00:20:52.599 everything they did they stole from other people. That simply 354 00:20:52.640 --> 00:20:55.559 isn't true. You don't graduate something like fifty thousand engineers 355 00:20:55.559 --> 00:20:58.359 and technical people every year and then have them just 356 00:20:58.400 --> 00:21:01.880 sit around twiddling their thumbs. They are innovative, they are 357 00:21:01.880 --> 00:21:05.559 working hard, and they are producing the technology that they 358 00:21:05.599 --> 00:21:08.400 are using with the additional benefit of stealing some of it, 359 00:21:08.559 --> 00:21:09.920 but a lot of it is homegrown. 360 00:21:12.640 --> 00:21:16.400 Yeah, I'm an old science fiction fan, and I don't 361 00:21:16.400 --> 00:21:18.440 know if you remember the book The Moon is a 362 00:21:18.480 --> 00:21:24.359 hears Mistress, where the Moon was fitted with the catapult 363 00:21:24.440 --> 00:21:28.279 or something to throw rocks at Earth to ensure peace 364 00:21:28.519 --> 00:21:33.799 among those of us on the terrestrial sphere. And you know, 365 00:21:34.000 --> 00:21:37.880 it just worries me. It concerns me that as much 366 00:21:37.920 --> 00:21:40.720 as as I see the way they operate, that that 367 00:21:40.759 --> 00:21:44.079 would not be something that they would necessarily avoid doing. 368 00:21:44.319 --> 00:21:47.519 So that's one thing that really concerns me about whatever 369 00:21:47.559 --> 00:21:49.319 they're going to do on the Moon. In addition to 370 00:21:49.440 --> 00:21:53.240 the they see financial and business opportunities up there too, 371 00:21:53.240 --> 00:21:55.720 which I find fascinating. What I mean, other than grabbing 372 00:21:55.920 --> 00:21:58.480 an asteroid that's made out of solid gold, what do 373 00:21:58.519 --> 00:22:01.720 you think is their economic scheme for the space. 374 00:22:02.880 --> 00:22:03.880 With regards to the Moon. 375 00:22:03.960 --> 00:22:08.400 I'm not sure that there's an economic argument at this moment, 376 00:22:08.599 --> 00:22:12.119 and I'm also not sure that there is a weapons argument. 377 00:22:12.359 --> 00:22:14.839 Cool idea, but something fired from the Moon is still 378 00:22:14.839 --> 00:22:16.400 going to take around three days. 379 00:22:16.200 --> 00:22:17.319 To come and hit Earth. 380 00:22:17.440 --> 00:22:20.440 Now, what it does do without getting into the firing 381 00:22:20.480 --> 00:22:23.839 weapons part, simply having more traffic is going to tax 382 00:22:24.160 --> 00:22:27.359 our ability to track what's out there. And so if 383 00:22:27.400 --> 00:22:30.240 you have enough stuff out there, you could do a 384 00:22:30.279 --> 00:22:33.440 three card Monti shuffle and start having things disappear where 385 00:22:33.599 --> 00:22:37.200 hopefully the Americans lose track a bit that has implications 386 00:22:37.240 --> 00:22:40.319 for anti satellite systems, et cetera. Where there are some 387 00:22:40.480 --> 00:22:44.559 interesting resource issues, and the most interesting is helium three. Now, 388 00:22:44.640 --> 00:22:47.519 what you often hear about is while we'll want helium three, 389 00:22:47.880 --> 00:22:51.480 an isotope of helium, because that'll power our fusion reactors. 390 00:22:51.519 --> 00:22:53.440 The problem I have with that is, please show me 391 00:22:53.480 --> 00:22:56.880 the working fusion reactor not out there yet. People who 392 00:22:57.039 --> 00:23:01.279 are doing a lot of the more advanced quantum computing, 393 00:23:01.519 --> 00:23:07.200 and for looking at the computing demands associated with artificial intelligence, 394 00:23:07.359 --> 00:23:10.000 especially once you start getting into like smart cities and 395 00:23:10.079 --> 00:23:13.119 thousands and thousands of smart cars and all that. You've 396 00:23:13.160 --> 00:23:16.119 got to fool that. You've got to cool a lot 397 00:23:16.160 --> 00:23:19.400 of computer cores. Part of that's going to be electricity, 398 00:23:20.119 --> 00:23:22.400 but part of that is going to be how do 399 00:23:22.440 --> 00:23:26.720 you keep stuff super cool? And part of the argument 400 00:23:26.720 --> 00:23:30.519 there is the use of helium like nitrogen liquid. Nitrogen 401 00:23:30.640 --> 00:23:32.640