1 00:00:01,720 --> 00:00:05,839 Speaker 1: It's Last Call Sunday, Championship Sunday and the NFL. I'm 2 00:00:05,879 --> 00:00:10,119 the prep Queen Aria Epstein. We've got a great, great, great, 3 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:12,519 great group of people coming on the show today, so 4 00:00:12,519 --> 00:00:15,640 I'm really excited. We've got VR obviously, he's on every 5 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:18,359 Sunday with us, giving us all the sharp groups and 6 00:00:18,399 --> 00:00:20,480 what they are betting today. Then we're going to be 7 00:00:20,519 --> 00:00:24,199 joined by Marco DiAngelo and Steve Merrill. We're all breaking 8 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:26,559 down the games from all different angles. I'll give you 9 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:29,480 guys some props at the end of the show. I've 10 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:32,119 been known well, so I'm hoping that nothing comes to 11 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:35,359 an end this weekend. It's also a reminder that every 12 00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:39,240 team of ours that's not named the Patriots, the Broncos, 13 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:42,119 the Seahawks or the Rams are not good enough to 14 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:46,719 be here today. But we are, and so is Jared Sidham. Unbelievable. 15 00:00:46,719 --> 00:00:48,640 I can't believe Jared Sidham's revenge game is going to 16 00:00:48,719 --> 00:00:51,439 take over the AFC Championship. So game start at three 17 00:00:51,439 --> 00:00:54,039 pm Eastern, then the NFC is going to be six 18 00:00:54,159 --> 00:00:57,039 thirty pm Eastern. It is a snowy blizzard here today 19 00:00:57,079 --> 00:00:59,799 in New York, so I'm very excited to be inside watching, 20 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:03,039 but very excited to also see what our next guest 21 00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:06,760 hat is of the day. Yoanny Degree joining us life 22 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:09,840 from Las Vegas. I'm sure it's not snowing there. Yanni's 23 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:12,599 wearing the billy that we mean business today. 24 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:16,159 Speaker 2: Yeah, we're war zoned today. We'mot. I just moved like 25 00:01:16,239 --> 00:01:16,920 fifty dimes. 26 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:20,079 Speaker 3: I swear, where's the props right now? Through all these accounts, 27 00:01:20,079 --> 00:01:26,000 we just hold on before I start, Before we start, 28 00:01:26,439 --> 00:01:28,760 I need to address I need to address the very 29 00:01:28,799 --> 00:01:31,719 first comment in the room, because I tell you when 30 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:33,920 I win and I tell you when I lose. And 31 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:39,000 this channel is dedicated towards winning. It's dedicated towards making 32 00:01:39,159 --> 00:01:43,959 the viewers sharper betters, making them more profitable, betters, helping 33 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:47,799 those that are negative V slowly turned positive EV. But 34 00:01:48,239 --> 00:01:51,200 the only way we do that is by keeping it 35 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:55,040 real and talking truths. And here's what we need to share. 36 00:01:55,239 --> 00:01:57,560 I'm coming off of a loss of a five percent 37 00:01:57,719 --> 00:02:01,120 last night, and I'm sure a lot of my subscribers 38 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:03,599 are mad because we were running really hot, having a 39 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:07,319 great twenty twenty six, and that was a chalky bet 40 00:02:07,319 --> 00:02:10,360 minus to twenty on Patty who lost that fight as 41 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:13,240 a five percent, and this gentleman's mad because he's saying 42 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:15,159 you went one in five or one in seven on 43 00:02:15,199 --> 00:02:17,199 your last five percent. Here's what I can tell you, 44 00:02:17,439 --> 00:02:20,840 because I always keep it real. I don't want anyone 45 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:26,199 spending a single penny on my information unless our goals 46 00:02:26,199 --> 00:02:29,840 are aligned, and my goals in this gentleman's goals are 47 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:30,479 not aligned. 48 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 2: My only goal. I have one goal, and that's when 49 00:02:33,599 --> 00:02:36,680 December thirty first rolls around, to be profitable. That's it. 50 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:38,560 Speaker 3: I do this for money. I don't do it for 51 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:41,639 any other reason. I could care less about watching this stuff. 52 00:02:41,759 --> 00:02:44,199 I could care less about cheering in player props or 53 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:47,120 any of that nonsense. I do this for money. That's 54 00:02:47,159 --> 00:02:49,400 the only reason. And here's what I can tell you. 55 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:50,479 Speaker 2: I went and. 56 00:02:50,479 --> 00:02:55,039 Speaker 3: Looked twenty twenty to three four point five percent return 57 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:58,879 on investment one five percents, twenty twenty four, five point 58 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:02,560 two percent return on investment on five percent. Twenty twenty 59 00:03:02,599 --> 00:03:07,080 five just passed fifteen point seven percent return on investment 60 00:03:07,319 --> 00:03:11,240 on five percent over fifty units of profit. Brother, that's 61 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:14,520 I can't do better than that in the short term. Yeah, 62 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:16,919 I'm gonna lose a couple. I'm gonna win a couple, 63 00:03:17,159 --> 00:03:20,319 but the only goal I have is long term to 64 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:23,840 be profitable. And yes, in twenty twenty six, I am 65 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:27,680 one and three on my five percent, I am negative, 66 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:29,280 but it's the first month. 67 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:32,159 Speaker 2: I have eleven months to go. And over the last 68 00:03:32,159 --> 00:03:34,960 three years we produced over. 69 00:03:34,919 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 3: Twenty five percent return on investment on those five percent. 70 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:42,000 So again, I don't mean to go long, but these 71 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:45,439 are the kind of of topics that we got to 72 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:50,360 cover because if you got buried because of one bet, 73 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:53,120 you're doing it wrong. Like if you need a lock 74 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:55,960 to save your week to get you out of the hole, 75 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:59,400 you're doing it wrong. The five percent for me is 76 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:02,719 point two five percent of bankroll more than a four percent. 77 00:04:02,759 --> 00:04:03,159 Speaker 2: That's it. 78 00:04:03,639 --> 00:04:06,719 Speaker 3: So for example, if I have a ten thousand dollars bankroll, 79 00:04:06,919 --> 00:04:09,400 my four percents one hundred dollars bet my five percent 80 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:12,080 one hundred and twenty five dollars. It's worth twenty five 81 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:14,879 dollars per ten grand bankroll to me. So if you 82 00:04:14,879 --> 00:04:16,879 have a fifty grand bankroll, you only bet one hundred 83 00:04:16,879 --> 00:04:19,720 and twenty five dollars more on a five than a four, 84 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:23,199 or you're doing it wrong. So that money management is 85 00:04:23,199 --> 00:04:25,759 more important than anything else. Again, I tell you when 86 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:28,480 I win, I tell you when I lose, and we're 87 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:30,800 coming off a loss of a five percent, but those 88 00:04:30,879 --> 00:04:33,319 have been so profitable. If you can't make money off 89 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:36,240 my five percent, again, you're doing it wrong. Now, let's 90 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:38,600 talk about the NFL, because I was gonna find me. 91 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:40,720 Speaker 1: I want to just say this, even though the chat 92 00:04:40,759 --> 00:04:43,279 is blowing up about how great you are, you gave 93 00:04:43,319 --> 00:04:46,680 me the best advice years ago when we first met, 94 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:50,040 when I was over at another company, the best advice 95 00:04:50,079 --> 00:04:53,600 you ever gave me was riy I'll remember, just because 96 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:55,920 you go cold for a little bit doesn't mean that 97 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:59,079 your system doesn't work. If you know that your system 98 00:04:59,439 --> 00:05:02,319 works long term, then you have to stick to it. 99 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:04,399 And if it stops working, then you could change what 100 00:05:04,399 --> 00:05:06,720 you're doing. But you're in it for the long run. 101 00:05:06,759 --> 00:05:10,120 And that's exactly what I always stand by when I 102 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:12,759 lose a bet, when I go cold, I say, remember 103 00:05:12,759 --> 00:05:15,800 what Yanni said. You know your system works long term, 104 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:17,399 So if you're in it with Yanni, you're in it 105 00:05:17,439 --> 00:05:18,600 long term, not for one day. 106 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:19,240 Speaker 2: Good girl. 107 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:22,040 Speaker 3: When in doubt, zoom out. Numbers never lie at the end. 108 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:24,240 That's why I say, keep records so you don't lie 109 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:26,839 to yourself. Your numbers will not lie. They'll tell you 110 00:05:26,879 --> 00:05:30,120 the truth. We could all convince ourselves of anything well. 111 00:05:30,079 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 1: And that's why Kelly and I always talk about using picket, 112 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:33,959 because picket is if. 113 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:35,439 Speaker 2: You documents your results. 114 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:37,959 Speaker 1: That's it, documents your results. You'll see when you win, 115 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:40,279 you see when you lose, you see what markets you're 116 00:05:40,319 --> 00:05:42,759 good at, and you're able to see which leads your 117 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:46,360 best at betting Harley's prop sides totals. It tells you 118 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:48,600 what you've been good at and what you're not and 119 00:05:48,639 --> 00:05:50,759 it automatically does it when you link your sports books. 120 00:05:50,759 --> 00:05:52,680 You can use from a Codprep queen when you sign up. 121 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:54,800 But yeah, it is a very useful tool that you 122 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:57,560 don't have to do it yourself. You could just automatically 123 00:05:57,560 --> 00:05:59,560 it does it for you. But Yanni, let's dive into 124 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:02,079 these winner today because we know that we'll bounce back, 125 00:06:02,399 --> 00:06:04,879 and we've got the championship round of the playoffs before 126 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:06,959 we dive into the props. Because I'm really excited to 127 00:06:06,959 --> 00:06:10,240 get your long list. I am very curious about this 128 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:13,639 first game three pm Eastern time. A lot of movement. 129 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:16,079 I mean, we've seen no movement really in on the 130 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:19,439 spread in game two, but in Game one this line went. 131 00:06:20,199 --> 00:06:21,959 We know, the look ahead was one and a half 132 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:25,079 Broncos with bone Nicks, which now he's out. Then it 133 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:27,600 flips to the Broncos being dogs four and a half 134 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:30,160 five and a half. Now we're seeing three and a 135 00:06:30,199 --> 00:06:33,519 half for the Patriots laying on the road in Denver. 136 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:35,040 What do you make of the line? 137 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:39,160 Speaker 3: Okay, the situation is this, as soon as the line 138 00:06:39,199 --> 00:06:42,160 came out, the sharp betters are trying to get out 139 00:06:42,199 --> 00:06:44,920 ahead of the market. So they're trying to determine what 140 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:47,439 the market's going to do, and they're looking at their 141 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,800 power ratings, so combined, they're expecting that the market's going 142 00:06:50,879 --> 00:06:53,839 to overreact the bone Nicks being out because there's a 143 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:56,800 backup quarterback that hasn't really played in two years, two 144 00:06:56,839 --> 00:06:59,639 plus years, hasn't had any much of a sample size. 145 00:06:59,879 --> 00:07:03,480 They expected the betters to come in on New England 146 00:07:03,759 --> 00:07:08,240 against Denver, so they wanted to get out ahead of 147 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:12,040 the market. They get on New England, that line moves up, 148 00:07:12,079 --> 00:07:14,160 like you said, up to like five and a half. 149 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:18,120 I even saw some sixes out there. Then that's when 150 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:21,480 they start handicapping the matchup and they start to determine 151 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:23,839 that Wait a minute, bone Nicks, when you look at 152 00:07:23,839 --> 00:07:26,680 his QBR, when you look at his pasting success rate, 153 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:32,720 he's really not that big of a drop off to 154 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:35,800 the backup. Meaning if you're just looking at the numbers 155 00:07:35,839 --> 00:07:38,319 and you're covering the names up and you're not trying 156 00:07:38,399 --> 00:07:40,319 looking at any of the games, and you're just looking 157 00:07:40,319 --> 00:07:43,519 at what has bon Nicks done in twenty twenty five 158 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:46,519 and twenty twenty four, and what has stit Them done 159 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:49,480 the last two seasons that he has played, which is 160 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:52,519 twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three Vegas and Denver. 161 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 2: Those are the last two years. We have a. 162 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:56,920 Speaker 3: Significant sample size for him, and when you look at 163 00:07:56,959 --> 00:08:01,319 the qbr' it's very comparable. One Nix is averaging about 164 00:08:01,319 --> 00:08:03,839 a ninety over the last two seasons, and stid Them 165 00:08:03,879 --> 00:08:05,879 over his two seasons twenty twenty two and twenty three 166 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:07,439 is about eighty eight eighty nine. 167 00:08:07,639 --> 00:08:09,199 Speaker 2: So not a big drop off. 168 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:12,439 Speaker 3: And I think the betting syndicates when they started seeing 169 00:08:13,279 --> 00:08:17,319 coupled with a coach who's dealt with this situation. Remember 170 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:20,160 he's dealt with this in New Orleans he's dealt with 171 00:08:20,199 --> 00:08:21,920 this in the past, where he has to bring in 172 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:25,360 a serviceable backup whose job is not to win the game, 173 00:08:25,439 --> 00:08:26,959 it's just not to lose the game. 174 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:30,959 Speaker 2: Also, and he's gotten the job done with a solid. 175 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:34,080 Speaker 3: Game plan and with Denver being primarily a defensive team. 176 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:36,679 They won it with defense, right, not with offense. They're 177 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:41,080 barely an average offensive best. I think that's when you 178 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:45,240 started seeing the switch and the conclusion started being. 179 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:47,960 Speaker 2: The narrative was, wait, they overreacted. 180 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:51,519 Speaker 3: No quarterback is worth this if his backup's not that 181 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:52,399 big of a drop. 182 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 2: That's the key. 183 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:56,000 Speaker 3: The value over replacement player is one of the big 184 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:59,919 best correlations to winning bets, Like, if you're good at 185 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:03,960 pricing replacement players, you'll make a lot of money betting sports. 186 00:09:05,399 --> 00:09:10,879 But I think that's what happened here, overreaction to what 187 00:09:11,039 --> 00:09:16,120 the drop off is. And as the handicaps started, you know, 188 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:20,679 coming to fruition and people started doing work, they started seeing, way, 189 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:23,000 this line's a little bit too high, and that's why 190 00:09:23,039 --> 00:09:25,159 it's dropped. Now we're not going to see the key 191 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:28,080 number of three. That's not happening. So we're really talking 192 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:30,960 about should it be five, Should it be four should 193 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:31,240 it be. 194 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 2: Three and a half? 195 00:09:32,279 --> 00:09:35,440 Speaker 3: Like again, every half point matters, especially when you're talking 196 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:38,480 about the NFL. But unless this gets to three, it 197 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:43,080 isn't all that significant. With that said, I do say this, 198 00:09:43,279 --> 00:09:46,519 if you're betting New England today, you better be looking 199 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:50,080 to lay three and a half or three even discounted. 200 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:55,440 If you're betting Denver today, you better be looking for fours. 201 00:09:56,159 --> 00:09:58,480 The worst you should have is four. You should even 202 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:00,679 be looking for four and a half, and you could 203 00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:04,200 buy that hook at anything less than one twenty or better, 204 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:05,840 because the half of a point from three and a 205 00:10:05,879 --> 00:10:07,919 half to four is worth more than the ten cents 206 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:11,440 they charge us, especially in a conference championship game like today. 207 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:13,799 Today's the kind of day where you do want to 208 00:10:13,879 --> 00:10:18,279 use teasers, even though they're not woable. Today's the day 209 00:10:18,279 --> 00:10:22,279 where every half point does matter. In fact, there were 210 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:25,720 odds book makers that have gone on records saying Conference 211 00:10:25,799 --> 00:10:29,120 Championship the teaser line should be closer to minus one 212 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:33,360 seventy one eighty based on history, and a lot of 213 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:35,840 books even limit their teasers. I know a book of 214 00:10:35,879 --> 00:10:38,399 Mind that would take five thousand from me on a 215 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:41,120 teaser six point teaser during the regular season, will take 216 00:10:41,159 --> 00:10:44,799 five hundred today and even though it's a big playoff game, 217 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:48,200 because again they think the points really matter when it 218 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:50,519 comes even though it doesn't like historically, we know it 219 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:52,399 doesn't this round of the playoffs. 220 00:10:52,399 --> 00:10:54,279 Speaker 2: Pick the winner, you're going to catch a ticket, and 221 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:56,639 we know it. It's hold true. So far in these playoffs. 222 00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:59,679 Speaker 3: I think every single game the spreads only mattered, and 223 00:10:59,799 --> 00:11:02,159 like two or three of them, so it's hold true 224 00:11:02,279 --> 00:11:04,120 or eight out of ten times you pick the winner, 225 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:06,559 you're gonna cash a ticket. So if you like New England, 226 00:11:07,279 --> 00:11:09,360 you shouldn't be afraid to lay it. If you like Denver, 227 00:11:09,399 --> 00:11:11,720 you shouldn't be afraid to take the points. Same thing 228 00:11:11,799 --> 00:11:13,799 with I mean take the money line. Same thing with 229 00:11:13,919 --> 00:11:16,960 Ram Seattle. If you're betting dogs today, don't be afraid 230 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:21,200 of the money line. If you're betting favorites, again, usually 231 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:24,120 the spread doesn't matter, so you want to lay the 232 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:25,519 points and not the money line. 233 00:11:26,159 --> 00:11:28,039 Speaker 1: Johnny, I was looking at the total for this game, 234 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:30,720 and on Sunday I saw the total at forty and 235 00:11:30,759 --> 00:11:32,759 a half. Now we're all the way up to forty 236 00:11:32,799 --> 00:11:34,960 three and a half. How do you what are your 237 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:36,279 groups doing with the total. 238 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:39,559 Speaker 2: I bet it over me and my subscribers. 239 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:41,200 Speaker 1: Will still bet over forty three and a half since 240 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:41,879 we're done. 241 00:11:42,039 --> 00:11:44,759 Speaker 2: No no, I went over forty one. I went over 242 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:45,360 forty one. 243 00:11:45,639 --> 00:11:47,399 Speaker 3: And because this is exactly what I thought was going 244 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:50,120 to happen, I thought they brought it out sure, because 245 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:53,000 of the quarterback situation. Number one, you have two teams 246 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:56,519 that are defensive minded. Both of them are stronger on 247 00:11:56,559 --> 00:11:58,399 the defensive side of the ball than the offensive side 248 00:11:58,399 --> 00:12:01,519 of the ball, a lot stronger, almost two x better 249 00:12:01,639 --> 00:12:05,159 in their rankings defensively than offensively. So usually you're gonna 250 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:09,080 get the total to reflect that. So we're gonna get 251 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:12,519 a lower total than we should get. Then you get 252 00:12:12,519 --> 00:12:15,120 an injured quarterback, so they're gonna bring it even shorter 253 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:15,919 than they should. 254 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:18,240 Speaker 2: It was the perfect storm to go over. 255 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 3: The only thing I was worried about are the betting 256 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:22,360 sin that gets gonna steam it on there, And am 257 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:23,320 I gonna look like a fool? 258 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:24,879 Speaker 2: Like? Am I going over forty one? 259 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:26,559 Speaker 3: And then I'm gonna look up and look at a 260 00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:29,519 thirty nine three days later because it's gonna snow in 261 00:12:29,639 --> 00:12:32,440 Denver or something like that. That was my only fear 262 00:12:32,759 --> 00:12:35,720 getting down early, and I was holding my breath because 263 00:12:35,799 --> 00:12:38,480 usually this late in the playoffs, you're not gonna get 264 00:12:38,519 --> 00:12:42,840 line movement unless it's a big injury or it's weather related, 265 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:45,279 and in this case, that wasn't it. I mean, yeah, 266 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:48,039 it was little injury related, but it was more the 267 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:51,840 overreaction to the total. And again I had it power rated. 268 00:12:51,879 --> 00:12:54,000 My total was forty five, so I was gonna bet 269 00:12:54,039 --> 00:12:56,159 it over, and I didn't think the drop off with 270 00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:59,000 Stidham was that big to stop me from betting that over. 271 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 2: So I'm glad I did it. I did my job, 272 00:13:01,279 --> 00:13:02,519 but now they got to do theirs. 273 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:05,759 Speaker 3: It's like, again, you could do yours perfectly, but they 274 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,720 got to go out and do theirs now today And hopefully. 275 00:13:08,279 --> 00:13:10,200 Speaker 1: I probably got a crazy question for you that it 276 00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:12,320 sparked my mind that you said, now the number has 277 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:14,519 gone for betting the overs. So what I've realized a 278 00:13:14,519 --> 00:13:17,639 lot of people are doing now, especially on these apps 279 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:22,879 like DKA, Fandel, et cetera. They're able to take these 280 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:27,840 alt totals and alt spreads and parlay them together. People 281 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:29,519 have been doing this, Like I was on the show 282 00:13:29,519 --> 00:13:31,240 the other day and they said, I'm going to take 283 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:34,279 the alt total of forty one and a half parlay 284 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:37,440 it with an alt spread of Patriots minus one and 285 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:41,159 a half. How would you advise people go about Like 286 00:13:41,279 --> 00:13:44,159 would you say, sure, do it because a win's a 287 00:13:44,159 --> 00:13:45,919 win or are you going to tell people that that's 288 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:47,360 bad because it's not plus ev. 289 00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:50,519 Speaker 3: Save your money? What are you doing, like if you're 290 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:53,000 doing this for fun? Honestly, Like, we got to keep 291 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:53,360 it real. 292 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:53,879 Speaker 2: I get it. 293 00:13:54,039 --> 00:13:56,559 Speaker 3: All those guys out there on social media and all 294 00:13:56,559 --> 00:13:58,919 the sports betting influencers that are getting one hundred dollars 295 00:13:58,879 --> 00:14:01,679 to do a video and tell you to oh and parlay. 296 00:14:01,879 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 2: Great. God bless them. They're making their living and they should. 297 00:14:04,919 --> 00:14:05,799 But we know the. 298 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 3: Truth and the truth is parlays are crushing betters. There 299 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,960 is no way around it. I mean I talked about 300 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:17,000 it the other day on Wade You Talk Today. Just go 301 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:21,759 to watch Breaking Points. It's like a news show online. 302 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:26,159 And they actually had a high executive from FanDuel A 303 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:30,480 next executive. Never before has someone that high up gone 304 00:14:30,519 --> 00:14:33,639 on the record and actually given his name, and he 305 00:14:33,879 --> 00:14:37,960 shared so much information in that fifteen minute conversation that 306 00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:41,000 he had. I think every sports better should listen to 307 00:14:41,039 --> 00:14:44,600 it because he talks about exactly that, and how they're 308 00:14:44,639 --> 00:14:47,759 separating betters from their money faster than they even. 309 00:14:47,519 --> 00:14:48,559 Speaker 2: They're comfortable with. 310 00:14:48,919 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 3: Like they're like, wait a minute, we're separating these young. 311 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:53,559 Speaker 2: People from their money too quickly. 312 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:56,919 Speaker 3: Should we give them a little better parlay odds because 313 00:14:56,919 --> 00:14:59,919 they're just burning through cash too fast. Like they're even 314 00:15:00,039 --> 00:15:03,399 feeling sorry for the betters because they're taking such the 315 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:04,120 worst of it. 316 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:06,039 Speaker 2: Bro, they know your biases. 317 00:15:06,519 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 1: The fact think that if they're putting these two leg 318 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:12,240 parlays together and all, they really love the over, but 319 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:14,519 not forty three and a half. They'll taken over forty 320 00:15:14,559 --> 00:15:16,679 and a half. And they love the Patriots to win, 321 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:18,279 but they don't want to lay three and a half. 322 00:15:18,279 --> 00:15:20,080 They'll lay one and a half, and they think that 323 00:15:20,159 --> 00:15:21,919 they're guaranteeing themselves a win. 324 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 3: You're not getting that. That's what you don't understand. I 325 00:15:25,039 --> 00:15:27,080 see it right now, I'm looking at it. That's what 326 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:29,000 I did while while you were talking. Right now, I 327 00:15:29,039 --> 00:15:30,759 looked in the back end and I said, let me 328 00:15:30,799 --> 00:15:33,960 look at some foolish bets that people are making. And 329 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:37,240 here's one that someone made right now, and this is 330 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:40,480 what they did. They have New England Okay, they took 331 00:15:40,519 --> 00:15:44,720 New England down the minus two for minus four, but 332 00:15:44,799 --> 00:15:49,120 they're laying minus one seventy five. Okay, so now at 333 00:15:49,159 --> 00:15:51,200 minus one ten, so they could have had New England 334 00:15:51,279 --> 00:15:53,440 minus it's probably minus one oh five. They could have 335 00:15:53,559 --> 00:15:55,960 New England minus four, probably minus one oh five. Let's 336 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:58,600 say New England minus four minus one ten. So that 337 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:01,840 means they don't think there's a fifty two percent chance 338 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:04,480 greater than fifty two percent chance that New England could 339 00:16:04,519 --> 00:16:07,879 win by four or more, but they think that there's 340 00:16:07,919 --> 00:16:11,279 greater than a sixty three percent chance that. 341 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 2: They could win by two or more. What are you 342 00:16:13,519 --> 00:16:14,240 talking about? 343 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:17,559 Speaker 3: Like, in what world does that make sense that you 344 00:16:17,679 --> 00:16:20,679 don't think they could win by four fifty two percent 345 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:23,159 of the time, but they will do it by more 346 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:26,480 than two sixty three percent. Again, these people are a 347 00:16:26,519 --> 00:16:28,879 lot smarter than me. I'm sure they have degrees, I'm 348 00:16:28,919 --> 00:16:32,919 sure they've a lot more educated, they've read more than me. 349 00:16:33,279 --> 00:16:35,559 But you put him in a casino setting and the 350 00:16:35,559 --> 00:16:37,720 smartest people become idiots. 351 00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 2: Like they're they're placing, Like if you. 352 00:16:40,159 --> 00:16:42,639 Speaker 3: Just tell them what they did and they wouldn't even 353 00:16:42,679 --> 00:16:45,440 understand it, like they would be like that what I 354 00:16:45,559 --> 00:16:48,559 just said to you, This guy didn't think laying one 355 00:16:48,679 --> 00:16:51,240 ten made sense to him, so he does that's what 356 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:53,600 minus one ten is fifty two and a half percent, 357 00:16:53,679 --> 00:16:55,960 that's the break even. So he didn't think there was 358 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,120 a fifty two and a half percent chance that New 359 00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:00,879 England could win by four, but he thinks there's a 360 00:17:00,919 --> 00:17:03,559 sixty five percent chance that they win by more than two. 361 00:17:04,079 --> 00:17:05,920 Speaker 2: What are you talking about? Like? 362 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,680 Speaker 3: In what world does that like? What are you saying 363 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,279 that that you you you're that sure it's going to 364 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:14,680 land on three, that you're ensuring it, bro? What do 365 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:16,160 you like if you're that psychic? 366 00:17:16,279 --> 00:17:16,440 Speaker 2: Bro? 367 00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:17,119 Speaker 4: Hey, I just. 368 00:17:17,079 --> 00:17:18,880 Speaker 1: Don't want to get your thoughts on it, because I 369 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:19,759 know a lot of people are. 370 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:25,039 Speaker 2: Going to I'm urging better to do this stuff. 371 00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:26,680 Speaker 1: I knew it was going to send you off on 372 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:30,119 a tangent. Let's stalk the real stuff. NFC Championship Game, 373 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:33,960 Seahawks Rams, we haven't seen this spread move at all 374 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:36,200 at two and a half. Of course, on a normal Sunday, 375 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:38,000 it'd be a very nice teaser. Leg and I know 376 00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:40,039 you and Kelly were laughing on bet on it that 377 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:45,039 you guys teased it with. Yeah, but Okay, so today, 378 00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:47,319 if someone were to want to look at this game 379 00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:49,960 and say, who is the right side, Johanny, I'm a 380 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:53,359 little biased. I really need the Rams to win the 381 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:55,759 super Bowl because then I'll win fifty K survivor and 382 00:17:55,799 --> 00:17:56,759 I'll be really happy. 383 00:17:57,559 --> 00:17:58,079 Speaker 2: Yeah. 384 00:17:58,160 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 1: So, I mean, I don't know if I'll win the 385 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:03,000 full but I'm in a the Splash sports contest that 386 00:18:03,079 --> 00:18:04,720 Kelly and I did, but at least I get a 387 00:18:04,759 --> 00:18:06,119 portion of it. If the Rams win. 388 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,880 Speaker 3: Listening for you, I'm happy to pick up I win 389 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,200 four times if the Rams win the super Bowl. I 390 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:13,400 found this future I'd put for like a nickel back 391 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:15,359 in I don't even remember when. And I'm like, well, 392 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:17,759 i got four thousand pending on the Rams, but I'll 393 00:18:17,759 --> 00:18:18,480 tell you the truth. 394 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:21,200 Speaker 1: I got Seattle. I mean, I feel like the public's 395 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:22,079 on Seattle today. 396 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:23,319 Speaker 2: They are, they are, they are. 397 00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:25,640 Speaker 3: But when it comes this late in the season, I 398 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:27,920 got to do what works for me because I tried 399 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:29,880 to get a little cute in the in the wild 400 00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:31,839 card round and it cost me. I said, bro, how 401 00:18:31,839 --> 00:18:34,640 did you finish number one in college and NFL by 402 00:18:34,799 --> 00:18:36,599 just trusting your power ratings? 403 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:37,440 Speaker 2: That's all you did. 404 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:39,200 Speaker 3: They're not going to be right all the time, but 405 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:41,319 that's how you did it. And last week I went 406 00:18:41,519 --> 00:18:43,920 back to just trusting my power ratings and I went 407 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:46,920 eight too and one, and this week both sides and 408 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:50,839 both totals are off according to my power ratings. So 409 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:53,920 I just followed the script. And Seattle's there for me 410 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:56,960 because I made the number four, believe it or not. 411 00:18:57,319 --> 00:18:59,799 And I love the Rams again. I was so high 412 00:18:59,839 --> 00:19:03,759 on the Rams because of the quarterback success rate, because 413 00:19:03,839 --> 00:19:06,559 they're they're so well balanced offensively and defensively that I 414 00:19:06,559 --> 00:19:09,519 actually put that future that I didn't even remember. That's 415 00:19:09,519 --> 00:19:11,279 how high I was on the Rams and had them 416 00:19:11,319 --> 00:19:13,799 power rated number one, so probably about two weeks ago. 417 00:19:14,759 --> 00:19:17,319 But yeah, I gotta trust my numbers. And on a 418 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:21,519 neutral field, Seattle should be is not a dog. Let's 419 00:19:21,559 --> 00:19:23,160 just put it that way. I won't go as far 420 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:25,359 as saying Seattle should be favored, but they shouldn't be 421 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,640 a dog that much we know, so it's say we 422 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:31,400 make it pick them on a neutral field. You gotta 423 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,599 give my my squad something for home field advantage, right, 424 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:38,559 and they also should progress towards the mean. They've had 425 00:19:38,599 --> 00:19:41,119 set what seven turnovers in the two games versus the 426 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:45,400 Rams that shouldn't continue like that shouldn't be sustainable. You 427 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:49,039 should play have a little better luck than that. So 428 00:19:49,279 --> 00:19:50,960 everything points to Seattle. 429 00:19:51,079 --> 00:19:51,440 Speaker 2: I get it. 430 00:19:51,519 --> 00:19:54,000 Speaker 3: The publics on them. Don't let that scare you when 431 00:19:54,079 --> 00:19:55,759 it comes this late in the playoffs, when it comes 432 00:19:55,799 --> 00:19:57,880 to the super Bowl, don't care what the public's on, 433 00:19:58,000 --> 00:19:59,720 because I promise you the books are going to do 434 00:19:59,799 --> 00:20:00,519 just fine. 435 00:20:00,599 --> 00:20:00,960 Speaker 2: I get it. 436 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,400 Speaker 3: They're gonna tell you if the Rams win the super Bowl, 437 00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:05,440 we win this much. If this team wins, we win 438 00:20:05,519 --> 00:20:07,440 that much. This team wins will win that blah blah 439 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:10,400 blah blah. I promise you could look back for I've 440 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:13,240 lived here for thirty plus years. Every single month they 441 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:16,960 report what they've done. And in the thirty years I've 442 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:18,680 been here, So what that makes it? What? 443 00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:20,920 Speaker 2: Four hundred months? Almost? 444 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,440 Speaker 3: I think they may have lost one or two of those. 445 00:20:23,599 --> 00:20:26,160 Have they not turned the profit? So don't worry about 446 00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:29,160 what Vegas needs. Vegas is just fine. They're gonna do 447 00:20:29,319 --> 00:20:31,920 just fine regardless of what we bet. So don't worry 448 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:33,039 about what the public is on. 449 00:20:33,079 --> 00:20:36,599 Speaker 2: This late. There's so much volume, it's so balanced that. 450 00:20:36,599 --> 00:20:38,920 Speaker 3: When you're laying eleven to ten, and when they're laying 451 00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:41,319 one twenties and one thirties on these teasers and taking 452 00:20:41,319 --> 00:20:44,000 the worst of it on these parlays. Trust me, it 453 00:20:44,039 --> 00:20:47,160 don't matter what the public's on. If you have conviction 454 00:20:47,279 --> 00:20:49,839 and you like a side or total, bet it, bet it, 455 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,039 bet it. It's that part of the year, at that 456 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:53,680 time of the year for. 457 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,559 Speaker 1: The NFC Championship, we're also seeing the total drop. It 458 00:20:56,680 --> 00:20:59,079 was forty seven and a half last Sunday, it's now 459 00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:02,640 forty five and a half. How would you approach the total, Well, it's. 460 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:04,799 Speaker 2: The sharp side. I thought that was gonna happen. 461 00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:07,680 Speaker 3: Listen, we saw them score seventy plus points a couple 462 00:21:07,759 --> 00:21:10,480 weeks ago and they adjusted down off of that. What 463 00:21:10,519 --> 00:21:13,119 does that tell you that they knew that the wise 464 00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,119 guys were going to look to go under in this 465 00:21:15,279 --> 00:21:20,920 game because the first game was so lower, lower scoring. 466 00:21:21,039 --> 00:21:22,200 Speaker 2: And then all of a sudden, you saw that. 467 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:26,279 Speaker 3: Shootout after the adjustment last time, and what did they do. 468 00:21:26,319 --> 00:21:29,119 They didn't adjust back down, They didn't adjust that up. 469 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,240 They brought it out at forty seven. I expected this 470 00:21:32,319 --> 00:21:35,640 to drop down, but the public money going over is 471 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,000 what stopped this from going down to like that forty 472 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,960 five range because I saw multiple groups on the under 473 00:21:41,799 --> 00:21:44,279 even at forty six, and I think that's still a 474 00:21:44,319 --> 00:21:47,920 valuable Okay, yeah, there's even forty six is still out 475 00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:50,880 there because of the public money on the over. And 476 00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,599 again they just saw these two teams score seventy plus. 477 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:55,920 They're not betting this game on there unless they saw, 478 00:21:56,039 --> 00:21:59,640 like Blizzard win crazy conditions. I think you're going to 479 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:02,079 get a lot over money, and I think that risk 480 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,319 is just gonna increase, and they're gonna need the sharps 481 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:06,359 to be right with the under when that one kicks off. 482 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,079 Speaker 1: Before we let you go, I need those props. 483 00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:12,160 Speaker 3: All right, let me give you different props in the 484 00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,359 steam seat. Let me tell you what was in there. 485 00:22:14,759 --> 00:22:17,720 A lot of these probably got away. But Pooka Pooka 486 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,920 rushing yards his rushing yards over four and a half, 487 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:25,160 Hunter Henry receiving yards over forty one and a half, 488 00:22:26,039 --> 00:22:29,799 Davonte Adams passed receptions under four and a half. Also 489 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:35,039 went Davonte Adams passing receiving yards under Colby. 490 00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,759 Speaker 1: Parkings Adams over receptions. 491 00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:41,680 Speaker 3: Under Under Adams under four and a half receptions and under. 492 00:22:41,839 --> 00:22:43,440 I think it was like forty nine and a half 493 00:22:43,519 --> 00:22:48,680 receiving yards if I'm right, Colby Parkinson over twenty two 494 00:22:48,759 --> 00:22:56,480 and a half receiving yards Shahed pass receptions pass receptions 495 00:22:56,480 --> 00:23:00,000 for Shahed under one and a half. And here I'm 496 00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:02,400 the premiums that I gave out as well. These are 497 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:05,279 premium these Gay went through subscribers three percent plays. 498 00:23:05,319 --> 00:23:06,119 Speaker 2: I'll just give them to you. 499 00:23:06,759 --> 00:23:11,440 Speaker 3: Hunter Henry over three and a half receptions minus one fifteen. 500 00:23:12,559 --> 00:23:16,319 R J. Harvey receiving yards over twenty and a half. 501 00:23:16,559 --> 00:23:18,680 That was good to minus one fifty, so we thought 502 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:20,440 six out of ten times he gets over twenty and 503 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:20,799 a half. 504 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:21,559 Speaker 2: R J. Harvey. 505 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:27,640 Speaker 3: Kenneth Walker receiving yards over twenty and a half, twenty 506 00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:29,519 one and a half and twenty two and a half. 507 00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,680 So Kenneth Walker the third expected to have a good game. 508 00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,799 And I gave you the Devonte Adam receiving yards under 509 00:23:35,839 --> 00:23:39,359 forty nine and a half. So I just gave you one, two, three, four, 510 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,279 all four of my premium prompts. And if I'm not mistaken, 511 00:23:42,319 --> 00:23:43,519 I agree on the Henry one. 512 00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:47,559 Speaker 1: I have him at thirty nine and a half receiving yards. 513 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,400 Hunter Henry over thirty nine and a half receiving yards 514 00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:52,480 is what I bet you get forty You gave out 515 00:23:52,519 --> 00:23:54,440 forty one and a half receiving. 516 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:56,319 Speaker 2: I gave out what over forty one? 517 00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:58,279 Speaker 1: Yeah, you said over forty one and a half receiving 518 00:23:58,359 --> 00:23:59,599 you're thirty nine and a half. 519 00:24:00,519 --> 00:24:03,079 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, why not? Sure it is well? 520 00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:04,599 Speaker 1: I mean I don't I don't know if it's still 521 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:08,599 out there, but it was out there, like yeah, three 522 00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:09,160 days ago. 523 00:24:09,599 --> 00:24:10,759 Speaker 2: The props have been so good. 524 00:24:10,799 --> 00:24:12,799 Speaker 3: I think I was perfect last week on the premium 525 00:24:12,839 --> 00:24:14,680 something like four and oh five, and oh I think 526 00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:15,519 the week before that. 527 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,119 Speaker 2: But those are the four I used for my subscribers. 528 00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:21,160 Speaker 3: DeVante Adams under forty nine and a half receiving yards, 529 00:24:21,319 --> 00:24:24,759 Kenneth Walker over twenty one and a half receiving yards, 530 00:24:25,319 --> 00:24:28,559 Hunter Henry over three and a half receptions, and Harvey 531 00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:30,720 receiving yards over twenty. 532 00:24:30,519 --> 00:24:33,720 Speaker 2: And a half. So yeah, three overs in and under 533 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:34,079 there you go. 534 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:36,160 Speaker 3: I just gave you guys at all that bond you 535 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:37,200 good stuff, good stuff. 536 00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,559 Speaker 1: Yeah, what do you you got? The steam room. 537 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:41,200 Speaker 2: Today coming up? 538 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:42,960 Speaker 3: It's coming up at nine. We're gonna go an hour 539 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:45,759 and we're gonna do it again next week. I'll decide 540 00:24:45,759 --> 00:24:47,599 where Saturday or Sunday, but I want to do Sunday 541 00:24:47,599 --> 00:24:50,240 for the Super Bowl. But after that it's gonna be Saturdays. 542 00:24:50,279 --> 00:24:53,839 Saturdays in UH because that's when we have all the 543 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:57,640 college basketball, so much information. We're crushing hoops right now 544 00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:02,759 in NBA. Been very selective, crushing NBA, crushing college basketball. 545 00:25:02,839 --> 00:25:04,640 So we're gonna move it to Saturday. And of course 546 00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:08,880 MMA is back UFC on Saturdays. And make sure if 547 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:10,440 you're betting your own stuff, you want to look at 548 00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:13,720 that steamsheet. Just look at what stuff was shared in there. Yesterday, 549 00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:16,960 College basketball, NBA and the UFC went like five and 550 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,240 two on the steam that was in there. So for 551 00:25:19,279 --> 00:25:22,359 those handicappers out there, good stuff. And again today's package 552 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:26,119 that's all both sides, both totals and four player props. 553 00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:28,599 May add some more, we'll see, but see you at 554 00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:29,960 noon in the steam room. 555 00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:31,839 Speaker 2: Thanks Aara. Oh good luck to everybody today. 556 00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:35,559 Speaker 1: Thanks Yanni, good luck today. Coming on now, we're gonna 557 00:25:35,599 --> 00:25:39,599 be joined by Marco D'Angelo known as Marco in Vegas. 558 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,000 It's we're just gonna have the whole bet on it 559 00:25:42,079 --> 00:25:45,640 Crea today. I absolutely love it. Marco, Happy Sunday. 560 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:49,480 Speaker 4: Happy Sunday. But It's also sad it's only three more 561 00:25:49,519 --> 00:25:51,440 football games Thereel, and I know. 562 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:55,759 Speaker 1: I'm I was thinking about how today I have like 563 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,640 two games and then we're done until the super Bowl. 564 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:01,240 It's just so depressing to think that next week I'm 565 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:03,279 gonna sit there like twiddling my thumbs. But then I 566 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:06,359 leave San Francisco with Kelly and Vegas. So I should 567 00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:13,160 just pre I'll pray for you, and we're going to 568 00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:16,200 be in Vegas for margrendous, so I apprear for all 569 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:18,559 of us in that situation. Okay, Margo, we've got the 570 00:26:18,599 --> 00:26:22,240 AFC Championship that doesn't feature either of our teams. Actually, 571 00:26:22,279 --> 00:26:24,559 that reminds me. How do you feel about Mike McCarthy, 572 00:26:24,599 --> 00:26:25,240 mister Steeler? 573 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:28,960 Speaker 2: You want the unedited version? Yeah? 574 00:26:30,319 --> 00:26:32,279 Speaker 4: Uh, this is exactly how I feel about it. I 575 00:26:32,319 --> 00:26:35,160 don't like it. And why I don't like it, Ariel 576 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:40,880 is the Steelers. What they've done with the coaching decision 577 00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:44,200 they made is just an extension I feel of what 578 00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:47,599 they've done the last two years. Regarding the quarterback. It's 579 00:26:47,599 --> 00:26:50,119 a band aid. Remember two years ago they went out 580 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:53,279 and signed Russell Wilson for that thinking they were going 581 00:26:53,319 --> 00:26:55,319 to catch lightning in a Bottle for you know that 582 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,200 one year that didn't work out. Then we did Aaron 583 00:26:58,279 --> 00:27:02,759 Rodgers last year. Going from Mike Tomlin to Mike McCarthy. 584 00:27:03,759 --> 00:27:05,960 You know, you got a veteran coach. He's been there, 585 00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:08,960 he's done that. I get that. I understand he's a 586 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:13,160 Pittsburgh native that helped as well, but it's a band aid. 587 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,759 This is not what the Steelers need if you want 588 00:27:16,799 --> 00:27:20,359 to look long term future and try to bring the 589 00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:25,319 offense to you know, twenty twenty six standards. We'll see 590 00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:28,079 what happens. He is more of an offensive coach, we 591 00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:30,960 get that, but you know he's still you know, he's 592 00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:33,799 been around forever. I was hoping they would go with 593 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:38,559 a younger, you know, coordinator do that, and this is 594 00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:42,279 the oldest coach hiring that they've had out of the 595 00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:46,039 last three. Remember when they hired Kower and they hired Tomlin, 596 00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:49,640 they were both young in getting their first head coaching 597 00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:52,839 jobs and it worked out well. So we'll see what happens. 598 00:27:52,839 --> 00:27:54,759 But I'm not a fan of the signing. 599 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, I felt like the Ravens won that one, But 600 00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:00,000 I guess we'll let the results speak next year. Because 601 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,519 neither of our teams are in it this year AFC 602 00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:07,720 Championship game, Denver Broncos Jarrett Stidham hosting the New England Patriots. 603 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,400 We've seen this line go all the way around. It 604 00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:12,240 was five and a half, four and a half, now 605 00:28:12,279 --> 00:28:14,279 three and a half. Marco, what do you make of 606 00:28:14,319 --> 00:28:15,279 this side in total? 607 00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:19,000 Speaker 4: Well, you know what you've seen happen with the line 608 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,599 is what I thought originally. Now there's been discussions on 609 00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,400 what would the line have been had bo Nicks been in, 610 00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:28,920 and most people settled in at one and a half. 611 00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:31,880 I was on a little bit on the higher side. 612 00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:33,599 I thought Denver would have been a two and a 613 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:37,160 half point favorite, given the fact that the line closed 614 00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:40,000 in the Buffalo game last week with Denver minus one 615 00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:44,079 and a half. You put New England and Buffalo side 616 00:28:44,119 --> 00:28:47,559 by side on a neutral field, Buffalo's gonna be the 617 00:28:47,599 --> 00:28:50,559 favorite in that game. And that's why I thought the 618 00:28:50,559 --> 00:28:53,200 line would have been a little higher with Denver versus 619 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:56,440 New England. With that said, when this number come out 620 00:28:56,559 --> 00:28:59,000 at you know, five and five and a half, when 621 00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:01,640 it got to its peak, that was just way too 622 00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:05,920 many points. Okay, I know Jared Stidham has not played 623 00:29:06,519 --> 00:29:10,920 meaningful football in over two years. But seven point over 624 00:29:11,039 --> 00:29:14,960 seven points or more for bo Nicks isn't just an 625 00:29:15,039 --> 00:29:19,240 over statement. And that's the books knowing what the public's 626 00:29:19,279 --> 00:29:22,160 gonna do. The public doesn't like to take injured teams, 627 00:29:22,359 --> 00:29:25,960 especially when it comes to the quarterback position. Also when 628 00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,960 it's a quarterback that hasn't played, they overreact even more so. 629 00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:33,079 I thought the line was too high, set it on, 630 00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:37,160 bed on it, and we've seen the line shift around 631 00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:38,920 as it's come back. And this is gonna be one 632 00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,880 of those classic ones Ariel where we said, is it 633 00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:45,440 gonna be the Joe's versus the pros? Because the public's 634 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:49,200 gonna want New England, the sharper guys want Denver, and 635 00:29:49,279 --> 00:29:52,200 I agree with the Denver side, and I'll throw in 636 00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:56,200 the other situation there when you look at this because 637 00:29:56,240 --> 00:30:00,720 he hasn't played. Now I realize that he was New 638 00:30:00,759 --> 00:30:04,759 England and he was with Josh McDaniels both at New 639 00:30:04,799 --> 00:30:09,519 England and the short the term head coaching job that 640 00:30:09,559 --> 00:30:13,119 he had here in Las Vegas Josh McDaniels. So everybody says, 641 00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:16,359 well he knows Jared's Didham. Well, apparently he doesn't know 642 00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:19,319 him very well because he couldn't get anything out of him. Okay, 643 00:30:19,839 --> 00:30:22,160 we'll see what Sean Payton does. But here's the thing. 644 00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:25,240 There is no game, real game film on him for 645 00:30:25,279 --> 00:30:29,480 the last two years. So that gives Denver, in my opinion, 646 00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:34,599 a built in little advantage because New England doesn't totally 647 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,240 know what the game plan for, so we're gonna have 648 00:30:37,279 --> 00:30:40,440 that element of surprise. So, as I said on bed 649 00:30:40,519 --> 00:30:43,559 on It, one of the first wagers I thought was 650 00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:46,720 good in this situation is I like Denver in the 651 00:30:46,759 --> 00:30:50,640 first half because I think that you know, they'll get 652 00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,279 in there and make some adjustments at halftime New England 653 00:30:53,279 --> 00:30:56,279 to whatever Denver's doing. But I think Denver's gonna have 654 00:30:56,319 --> 00:30:58,759 a few surprises for them, and I expect them to 655 00:30:58,799 --> 00:31:02,519 get out to a quicker start, and I'll grab the 656 00:31:02,559 --> 00:31:06,519 three points that were available at the time for the 657 00:31:06,559 --> 00:31:10,000 first half wager on Denver. The other element that we 658 00:31:10,079 --> 00:31:13,680 always talk about, and we didn't go into detail on 659 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:17,039 bet on It, but the injured player theory. And this 660 00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:20,680 is something that you know I've said for years that 661 00:31:20,839 --> 00:31:24,799 whenever a team suffers an injury to a star player, 662 00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:28,599 that first game after the injury, they're a play on 663 00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:32,039 for several reasons. One, what we just talked about, there's 664 00:31:32,079 --> 00:31:35,240 gonna be an over adjustment to the line because Vegas 665 00:31:35,279 --> 00:31:37,279 knows what the public's gonna do and they're gonna make 666 00:31:37,319 --> 00:31:39,920 them pay to do it. The second part of it 667 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:43,880 is is the team itself. The team. We use the 668 00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:47,559 phrase that everybody else steps it up a notch and 669 00:31:47,559 --> 00:31:50,079 they're gonna play it. You know, uh, they're gonna give 670 00:31:50,119 --> 00:31:52,200 one hundred and ten percent, even though we know you 671 00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:54,480 can't give more than one hundred percent. But it's a 672 00:31:54,519 --> 00:31:56,079 phrase we use well. 673 00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:56,799 Speaker 5: Ariel. 674 00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:58,759 Speaker 4: One of the things that I like about I do 675 00:31:58,839 --> 00:32:01,759 a radio show here in Vegas two days a week, 676 00:32:02,039 --> 00:32:03,759 and a lot of people ask me why do you 677 00:32:03,799 --> 00:32:07,839 bother doing that? Because I get to talk to current 678 00:32:08,039 --> 00:32:12,200 inform or coaches and players on the radio show. And 679 00:32:12,599 --> 00:32:15,279 this Friday when I was doing the show, and if 680 00:32:15,319 --> 00:32:17,480 you're ever in Vegas on Friday, stop by. 681 00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:24,400 Speaker 1: We oh did Marco breeze? We lost Marco No? We 682 00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:28,240 lost Marco oh No? And I heard he has a 683 00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,240 good story too. I'm sure he'll be back, but I 684 00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:32,799 feel like we should take him off the screen until 685 00:32:32,839 --> 00:32:35,960 he comes back. Lily, it's frozen in a bad spot. 686 00:32:36,079 --> 00:32:37,799 Let me know when we get Marco back, and you 687 00:32:37,799 --> 00:32:41,119 can just throw him back on the screen. Apparently Marco 688 00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:45,880 has a good story too about some injured player theory 689 00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:49,000 that I wanted to dive into. And now I'm trying 690 00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:52,759 to figure out do we go to Steve Merrill or 691 00:32:52,799 --> 00:32:55,519 do we talk some props and try to get Marco 692 00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:59,640 back in case anyone did miss it. Janni the Greek 693 00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:02,079 gave us some props, So some of the props in 694 00:33:02,079 --> 00:33:03,759 case we've got I know, we've got a lot and 695 00:33:03,839 --> 00:33:07,240 more people to trumen and now Puka Nakua over rushing yards, 696 00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:12,640 Hunter Henry over receiving yards. DeVante Adams under receptions and 697 00:33:12,759 --> 00:33:16,359 under receiving yards, Kobe Parkinson over twenty two and a 698 00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,599 half receiving yards, Shaheed under one and a half receptions, 699 00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:24,240 Hunter Henry over three and a half receptions. R J. 700 00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:27,000 Harvey over twenty and a half receiving yards, Kenneth Walker 701 00:33:27,039 --> 00:33:30,240 over receiving yards. I will tell you this going off 702 00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:32,440 those so I have Hunter Henry over thirty nine and 703 00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:35,440 a half receiving yards. I only women are interested in 704 00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:37,839 the halftime show. Get the hell out of here, bro 705 00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:43,240 Hunter Henry. I loved it. Because when you look at 706 00:33:43,279 --> 00:33:46,200 Hunter Henry's numbers against teams that are bottom ten against 707 00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:50,319 in receiving yards allowed to tight ends, he's averaging five receptions, 708 00:33:50,319 --> 00:33:52,519 sixty seven and a half receiving yards, and twenty one 709 00:33:52,559 --> 00:33:55,880 yards per longest reception. Denver ninth most receiving yards per 710 00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,640 game allowed to tight ends. In fact, sixty one percent 711 00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:00,279 of tight ends in the last ten games over the 712 00:34:00,359 --> 00:34:03,079 receiving yards prop and seventy one percent went over their 713 00:34:03,119 --> 00:34:06,000 receptions prop in the last ten games against Denver. So 714 00:34:06,039 --> 00:34:09,960 the Broncos have been struggling this year. Went up against 715 00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:15,320 tight ends Kenneth Walker. I will warn you guys on 716 00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:17,400 the running back for the Seahawks, that is one of 717 00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,920 the most bet on props of the day, Kenneth Walker 718 00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:22,440 over receiving yards. So what I ended up doing was 719 00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:25,480 going over his longest reception prop of eleven and a 720 00:34:25,519 --> 00:34:28,639 half yards. I think he should have one good catch 721 00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:32,559 that he busts open with. He's up against the defense 722 00:34:32,559 --> 00:34:34,880 that is bottom ten and receiving yards allowed to running backs, 723 00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:37,519 so the matchup is great. He's not really splitting carries 724 00:34:37,559 --> 00:34:39,760 with anybody. Now that Zach Charbonnay is out for the 725 00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:43,199 season with a torny ACL so I would just focus 726 00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:46,280 on that bet with Kenneth Walker. What else did I 727 00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:49,400 like today that Yannie didn't mention. I also wanted to 728 00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:53,199 mention that the Denver quarterback Jarretts did his passing yard 729 00:34:53,199 --> 00:34:55,559 prop went from one ninety eight and a half to 730 00:34:55,679 --> 00:34:59,079 two eight and a half. The number was low because 731 00:34:59,079 --> 00:35:02,400 in all four of Jared's Didham's last four games that 732 00:35:02,519 --> 00:35:05,840 he started back to twenty twenty two, he did have 733 00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:08,199 two hundred plus passing yards. So maybe this was a 734 00:35:08,199 --> 00:35:11,159 bit of an overreaction, but New England has allowed the 735 00:35:11,199 --> 00:35:14,280 ninth least passing yards per game to quarterbacks, So just 736 00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:16,079 be a little weary of that two oh eight and 737 00:35:16,079 --> 00:35:18,119 a half now, because it was one ninety eight and 738 00:35:18,159 --> 00:35:20,679 a half, I think people realized it was low, but now. 739 00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:22,599 I mean, I didn't like the over to begin with, 740 00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:25,119 but I would definitely be staying away from the Jared 741 00:35:25,159 --> 00:35:30,760 Stidham props today. Uh, Mark, you're back, We're back. 742 00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:34,639 Speaker 4: We'll lost internet here love Cox Internet in Vegas stuff. 743 00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:36,320 Speaker 2: That's my I was gonna say. 744 00:35:36,079 --> 00:35:38,079 Speaker 1: We're the ones that should be losing internet. We've got 745 00:35:38,119 --> 00:35:41,800 a blizzard outside, we've got Steve Meryl waiting in the wings, 746 00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:43,239 so I don't want to keep them waiting too long. 747 00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:47,599 But you mentioned some parts of that Broncos game, but 748 00:35:47,679 --> 00:35:50,159 there was an injured player theory that Kelly wanted me 749 00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:52,159 to bring up to you, and you said that you 750 00:35:52,159 --> 00:35:53,079 have a great story. 751 00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:54,079 Speaker 2: Yeah. 752 00:35:54,119 --> 00:35:56,719 Speaker 4: And when I do radio here in Vegas, I get 753 00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:59,960 to talk to a lot of former players and stuff. 754 00:36:00,039 --> 00:36:04,960 And I asked on Friday Trevor Matich, twelve year NFL alignment. 755 00:36:05,039 --> 00:36:07,480 I asked him about what's it like when you have 756 00:36:07,519 --> 00:36:10,920 a star player out like this? Okay, because we have theories, 757 00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,639 but obviously I've never played pro sports. I can only 758 00:36:14,639 --> 00:36:18,039 you know, give my theory. And he confirmed everything that 759 00:36:18,079 --> 00:36:20,960 I've always thought about it. He says that when you 760 00:36:21,079 --> 00:36:24,039 lose a player like that, everybody else does take it 761 00:36:24,159 --> 00:36:26,639 up a notch. And he says in him being you know, 762 00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:29,800 a center, he goes, when we've got a backup quarterback, 763 00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:34,039 Everybody in that offensive lineman room, you know, we look 764 00:36:34,079 --> 00:36:37,039 with each other in the eye and say, this game's ours. 765 00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:40,320 It's our job to protect him. It's our job to 766 00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:43,559 open up the lanes for the running backs. We have 767 00:36:43,679 --> 00:36:46,800 to make it easier for him and That's why I 768 00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:50,000 like to do it. You're getting extra points because Vegas 769 00:36:50,039 --> 00:36:53,320 is going to over adjust the lines, and the players 770 00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:57,000 do take that extra step. They're more focused, they know 771 00:36:57,039 --> 00:36:59,559 what they got to do, they have more attention to detail. 772 00:37:00,079 --> 00:37:02,360 On the flip side of it, aria if you're a 773 00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:06,320 player on the other team, mentally, you have that little 774 00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:08,519 you know what, we just caught a break. You know, 775 00:37:08,559 --> 00:37:11,079 maybe you exhale and say, hey, we caught a break, 776 00:37:11,199 --> 00:37:13,440 don't you know. We don't have to worry about bo Nicks. 777 00:37:13,559 --> 00:37:18,079 We've got Jared Stidham. That's a mental advantage for the 778 00:37:18,119 --> 00:37:21,599 injured team, and I agree with it. I am on Denver. 779 00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:24,320 I think Denver is the side, and I think there's 780 00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:26,920 really three ways you can attack Denver. I already said 781 00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:30,000 earlier Denver first half, because I think they're gonna have 782 00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,119 a bigger adjustment. They're gonna have a better chance in 783 00:37:33,159 --> 00:37:36,599 the first half getting a lead because New England doesn't 784 00:37:36,639 --> 00:37:40,320 know what to look for. Also full game obviously, but 785 00:37:41,039 --> 00:37:44,639 the total team total on Denver is only seventeen and 786 00:37:44,679 --> 00:37:48,159 a half because they're not giving them any chance offensively. 787 00:37:48,599 --> 00:37:51,639 I think Sean Payton, we've seen it so many times 788 00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:53,920 he's gonna have a couple surprises. I think they get 789 00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:56,599 over that seventeen and a half points. I would like 790 00:37:56,679 --> 00:37:58,480 them team total as well. So there you go. You 791 00:37:58,559 --> 00:38:01,400 got three ways to play Denver, all in the same game. 792 00:38:02,079 --> 00:38:04,719 Speaker 1: How about for the late game NFC Championship. This line 793 00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:06,880 hasn't moved. It's been sitting at two and a half 794 00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:09,920 the entire week. I wish we could tease it. We can't. 795 00:38:10,039 --> 00:38:13,800 The total has dropped as well. Seahawks and Rams. 796 00:38:14,199 --> 00:38:18,159 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that Seattle if Sam Darnal and this 797 00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:20,320 is the big Ques question mark, if he has a 798 00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:24,599 cleaning game, Seattle wins this game comfortably, okay, And I 799 00:38:24,599 --> 00:38:27,159 don't think they're gonna put Sam Darnald in a position 800 00:38:27,199 --> 00:38:29,599 where he has to carry the team. They're going to 801 00:38:29,679 --> 00:38:32,199 try to run the football. I know they're down one 802 00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:35,440 running back. But the Rams, this is the third game 803 00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:38,599 in a row on the road, and they haven't stopped 804 00:38:38,599 --> 00:38:42,280 anybody in the first two games. Carolina moved the football 805 00:38:42,639 --> 00:38:45,119 and we saw what the Bears did. Now they're playing 806 00:38:45,159 --> 00:38:48,079 a Seattle team that can run the football, has a 807 00:38:48,159 --> 00:38:49,280 quality quarterback. 808 00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:58,599 Speaker 1: Yeah, oh no, we lost Marco again. Okay, but there 809 00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:02,320 is no oh all right, we've. 810 00:39:02,119 --> 00:39:03,960 Speaker 4: Got to get to see you lay it with Seattle. 811 00:39:04,599 --> 00:39:07,760 Speaker 1: Well we got that, Barton, Okay, you cut out again, 812 00:39:08,039 --> 00:39:11,920 but light with Seattle, everybody. Marco di'angelo, gadgam at mark 813 00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:13,360 Win Vegas. What are you promoting today? 814 00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:16,159 Speaker 4: Yeah, you can check out what I've gotten football. I'll 815 00:39:16,199 --> 00:39:19,719 be adding some basketball and hockey, uh to the card 816 00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:22,360 here when I get done with you guys, and grab 817 00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:25,159 that seven day all access package at wager Talker. That's 818 00:39:25,199 --> 00:39:27,840 the best deal going. And a programming note for bet 819 00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,280 on It. No bet on it this week, but we're 820 00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:35,039 gonna have our special super Bowl edition on Monday, February second, 821 00:39:35,079 --> 00:39:36,840 so we'll make a note of that instead of the 822 00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:40,039 normal Wednesday, It'll be on Monday February second. 823 00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:42,960 Speaker 1: I love to hear it. I will be listening. Marco D'Angelo, 824 00:39:43,079 --> 00:39:44,719 thank you as always. We'll talk to you soon. 825 00:39:45,199 --> 00:39:46,000 Speaker 4: Okay, take care. 826 00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:51,599 Speaker 1: Last, certainly not least be great Steve Merrill joining the show. 827 00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:54,360 We're gonna get his thoughts all throughout the board of 828 00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:57,000 today's Championship Day. How are you, Steve? 829 00:39:57,360 --> 00:39:59,440 Speaker 5: We always think alike. Ariel I was gonna say it's 830 00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:02,239 very iron that the guy in Las Vegas froze twice 831 00:40:03,079 --> 00:40:05,639 when you and I are literally freezing on the East 832 00:40:05,639 --> 00:40:06,280 coast right now. 833 00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:07,119 Speaker 2: Yeah, I just climb. 834 00:40:07,119 --> 00:40:09,119 Speaker 1: We got paser with the problem. But I will say 835 00:40:09,159 --> 00:40:11,119 this as much crap as Kelly wants to give me 836 00:40:11,159 --> 00:40:13,679 for living in New York. The one perk of living 837 00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:17,079 in New York City, it is very rare that in 838 00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:19,639 an apartment building in New York City that you lose power. 839 00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:21,440 Speaker 2: Interesting, Yeah, very rare. 840 00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:23,599 Speaker 1: We've got so many generators in this building. 841 00:40:23,679 --> 00:40:24,239 Speaker 5: Oh, I got you. 842 00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:27,280 Speaker 1: I haven't lost power yet in five years, so hopefully 843 00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:30,519 that doesn't happen today for the tamship. 844 00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:33,199 Speaker 5: Yeah, so it's been over five years for me as well, 845 00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:35,519 because we haven't lost it since COVID. I was before that. 846 00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:37,840 So yeah, let's hope we don't double jinks each other. 847 00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:40,000 That's actually about the generator. So I was trying to 848 00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:41,440 figure out why you wouldn't lose it, But that makes 849 00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:42,119 a lot of sense. 850 00:40:42,639 --> 00:40:46,199 Speaker 1: Too many people, too many people, they would have madness 851 00:40:46,239 --> 00:40:47,559 if we lost any power. 852 00:40:48,119 --> 00:40:50,480 Speaker 5: It's true. Yeah, it's ironic also that I was thinking 853 00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:52,960 about this before coming on checking the latest weather reports 854 00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:56,320 that you know, almost two thirds of the country as 855 00:40:56,320 --> 00:40:58,760 of tomorrow are going to be a sub freezing temperatures 856 00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:00,599 at some point like two hundred and twenty million people. 857 00:41:00,599 --> 00:41:02,280 It's like one hundred and eighty million a day, about 858 00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:06,119 half the country. Yet both NFL Championship games aren't gonna 859 00:41:06,119 --> 00:41:09,840 have weather problems. Seattle is gonna be in the low forties, 860 00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:13,199 high thirties, a little chili, and then Denver will maybe 861 00:41:13,199 --> 00:41:15,559 get flurries in like the second half from what I'm seeing, 862 00:41:15,599 --> 00:41:18,159 but nothing crazy. But it is gonna be cold in 863 00:41:18,159 --> 00:41:20,239 that Denver game, and the windshill is going to be 864 00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:23,360 extremely cold, but not wendy, So I do think scoring 865 00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:26,440 conditions will be fine. We'll see how it affects the 866 00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:30,480 quarterbacks maybe at Denver. Obviously New England quarterbacks Denver quarterbacks 867 00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:32,199 are used to it. Drake Mays young, but I think 868 00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:33,960 he's probably played some cold games this year. 869 00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:37,639 Speaker 1: What do you like in that game between the Broncos 870 00:41:38,679 --> 00:41:39,679 taken on the Patriots. 871 00:41:40,199 --> 00:41:42,280 Speaker 5: Yeah, I was hoping Marco would freeze more because he 872 00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:44,639 and I think so like so alike many times as 873 00:41:44,679 --> 00:41:46,599 handicappers were most situational guys. 874 00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:47,719 Speaker 2: It's funny. 875 00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:49,760 Speaker 5: I'm doing the Best Betting Show now on Thursdays and 876 00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:51,800 Fridays with Joe Vernari and the Pres here are a 877 00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:54,000 way to talk TV each afternoon. To check that out 878 00:41:54,039 --> 00:41:58,079 on Thursdays and Fridays, and Pres mentioned that a number 879 00:41:58,079 --> 00:41:59,199 one all time. By the way, I do have an 880 00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:01,280 NBA season special up on my page because I'm the 881 00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:03,639 number one ranked NBA capper in the history of wager talk, 882 00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:05,519 and Press mentioned that Teddy and Marco and I are 883 00:42:05,519 --> 00:42:07,880 always vying for number one in the NBA, and as 884 00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:09,880 he said that, I was thinking, that's interesting because we 885 00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:13,880 have very similar handicapping styles. Teddy and I situational and 886 00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:17,239 Marco is definitely a situational capper. And I thoroughly agree 887 00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:20,039 with what he said about the injury handicaps, and that's 888 00:42:20,039 --> 00:42:21,679 why both of us do so well in the NBA. 889 00:42:21,679 --> 00:42:23,400 And you and I have talked about it also that 890 00:42:23,599 --> 00:42:26,360 if you just blindly play those NBA teams without their 891 00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:29,960 star player, especially that first game, they often went out right, 892 00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:32,920 but you're getting tons of extra line value. The question 893 00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:35,840 with NFL quarterbacks isn't how much an NFL quarterback has worth, 894 00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:38,199 It's how much the difference is between the starter and 895 00:42:38,199 --> 00:42:39,639 the backup. So I'm going to talk about this a 896 00:42:39,639 --> 00:42:42,239 little more detailed than Marco did. I agree. First of all, 897 00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:44,519 the teams step up, other teams overlook them. You definitely 898 00:42:44,559 --> 00:42:47,360 get line value. This line is about a six touchdown 899 00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:49,039 difference than what it would have been with bo Nicks. 900 00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:51,719 So the question is Stindham really that much worse than 901 00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:54,239 bow Knicks, And if you look at the numbers, I 902 00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:56,840 don't think he is. Definitely some uncertainty with the guy 903 00:42:56,880 --> 00:42:59,119 that hasn't thrown an NFL pass for the past two seasons, 904 00:42:59,159 --> 00:43:01,760 but he's been with the now for three years. He 905 00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:04,440 started several games with them three years ago before Knicks 906 00:43:04,519 --> 00:43:07,000 came in. He also played five games with the Raiders 907 00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:09,960 the year before that. Those two seasons when he started 908 00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:13,559 several games with the Raiders and the Broncos, his QB 909 00:43:13,639 --> 00:43:15,559 rating was about eighty eight and a half eighty nine. 910 00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:18,400 Bodenicks has a ninety and a half career QB rating. 911 00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:21,719 Stidham average seven and a half yards per pass. Knicks 912 00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:23,679 averages about six and a half yards per pass in 913 00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:25,519 his career. Actually Stidham has been better, although he had 914 00:43:25,559 --> 00:43:29,440 different players there. Bodnicks does have a better touchdown interception ratio, 915 00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:31,360 but the bottom line is the Broncos aren't winning this 916 00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:33,480 year because of the quarterback. They're winning. I'm not going 917 00:43:33,559 --> 00:43:36,159 to say despite the quarterback. He's been playing well, but 918 00:43:36,199 --> 00:43:38,280 they're winning because of the defense and also a good 919 00:43:38,320 --> 00:43:41,920 running game. So with extremely cold conditions, the better defense 920 00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:45,039 getting points. And also I'll point out that the public 921 00:43:45,119 --> 00:43:46,679 is on New England in this game. But this line 922 00:43:46,679 --> 00:43:48,599 has been dropping all week. It was as high as 923 00:43:48,599 --> 00:43:50,199 five to five and a half earlier the week four 924 00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:51,840 four and a half when I did my video for 925 00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:54,400 this Sunday, recorded that on Friday. Check that out here 926 00:43:54,599 --> 00:43:56,760 on wager Talk TV. Now it's three and a half. 927 00:43:56,920 --> 00:43:58,880 We have a sharp square divide in this game. The 928 00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:01,679 public is leading the Patriots. The sharp money is still 929 00:44:01,679 --> 00:44:04,000 on the Broncos. And I think it's an overreaction. And 930 00:44:04,079 --> 00:44:07,440 let's not forget NFL home dogs or a long term 931 00:44:07,559 --> 00:44:10,079 seventy percent play on the blind for over forty years 932 00:44:10,119 --> 00:44:13,159 in the NFL playoffs. As my friend Mark Lawrence pointed 933 00:44:13,199 --> 00:44:15,639 out this week, had this line state at plus four, 934 00:44:15,679 --> 00:44:18,320 it would have been the biggest home dog in NFC 935 00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:20,559 championship history and definitely the only number one seed that's 936 00:44:20,599 --> 00:44:22,480 been that big of a dog. I think there's some 937 00:44:22,519 --> 00:44:24,440 reasons to like the Broncos in area. It's tough for 938 00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:26,360 me because I think the Broncos are a phony number 939 00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:28,800 one seed. I've said that for several weeks now. But 940 00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:30,840 the matchups in the line Valley keeps working for him. 941 00:44:31,559 --> 00:44:34,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, that line just keeps moving in favor of Denver 942 00:44:34,639 --> 00:44:37,920 and Jarrett'stidham, which is unbelievable. A line that we have 943 00:44:38,000 --> 00:44:41,960 not seen move that Seahawks Rams game. It's been sitting 944 00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:44,679 there at two and a half. Marco says he's laying 945 00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:46,400 it with the Seahawks. I have a lot of good 946 00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:48,360 friends who I trust in the betting world. They're laying 947 00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:50,760 it with the Seahawks. The public is laying it with 948 00:44:50,800 --> 00:44:54,159 the Seahawks. Steve Merril, are you laying it with the Seahawks? 949 00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:55,360 Speaker 2: Exactly right? 950 00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:57,239 Speaker 5: The line hasn't moved. It's a great point. And you 951 00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:58,880 know I talked about the public is on the opposite 952 00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:00,440 side of the line move in the Denver game. And 953 00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:02,480 by the way, I thought Denver is a phony one seed. 954 00:45:02,480 --> 00:45:04,159 I said last week are on my videos that the 955 00:45:04,159 --> 00:45:06,719 Bears ray phony two seed, one of the worst defenses 956 00:45:07,159 --> 00:45:09,480 in the league this year, was looking to fade them, 957 00:45:09,519 --> 00:45:11,280 so what do I do? I used the Bears last 958 00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:13,360 week plus the three and a half and four and 959 00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:16,360 they cover and another best bet winner number one NFL 960 00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:18,880 the past year plus now at wager Talk. So it 961 00:45:18,920 --> 00:45:20,519 all comes down to the line value, right. You know, 962 00:45:20,519 --> 00:45:22,760 maybe I'm looking to fade Denver, I'm looking at fad Chicago, 963 00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:24,639 but these Lions just aren't right, so we cash with 964 00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:26,760 the Bears. I think that Bronco game could be a 965 00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:29,000 similar situation today with that three and a half four, 966 00:45:29,440 --> 00:45:32,440 kind of like Chicago losing but covering. With that said, 967 00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:34,079 this one, you probably picked the straight up winner. You're 968 00:45:34,079 --> 00:45:36,760 gonna get the points spread winner. Three is the key number. 969 00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:38,800 Doesn't look like it's going to hit that and whenever 970 00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:40,920 you have the odds makers, the sports books everyone kind 971 00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:42,519 of begging you to take the minus two and a half, 972 00:45:42,599 --> 00:45:44,840 that's always a red flag for me. I think the 973 00:45:44,920 --> 00:45:47,239 Rams have a very good shot in this game, and 974 00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:49,760 let's not forget they won the home game twenty one 975 00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:52,480 to nineteen back in mid November, and then of course 976 00:45:52,519 --> 00:45:55,360 we got that rematch on Thursday Night Prime. One of 977 00:45:55,400 --> 00:45:58,559 my sixteen and three free Prime winners was the over 978 00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:02,119 in that rematch in mid Decivember sixty points in Regulations 979 00:46:02,119 --> 00:46:04,960 seventy five at the end of overtime. But as Yanni said, 980 00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:06,800 the sharp money's been on the under in this game, 981 00:46:07,079 --> 00:46:09,360 yet the public is still on the over. When I 982 00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:11,320 did the video a couple days ago, I said, hey, 983 00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:13,440 forty six and a half. If you like the underweight, 984 00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:15,840 the public's going to push this higher. Well, they haven't 985 00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:17,800 been able to do it because the sharp money continues 986 00:46:17,800 --> 00:46:19,480 to come in on the under. It's now forty six. 987 00:46:19,519 --> 00:46:22,199 Even forty five and a half. Forty six is a 988 00:46:22,199 --> 00:46:24,000 dead number, So forty five and a half forty six 989 00:46:24,039 --> 00:46:26,480 and a half very little difference, one percent chance it 990 00:46:26,559 --> 00:46:29,599 lands on the odd number. The evenly odd number of 991 00:46:29,679 --> 00:46:32,800 forty six. Forty five, though, does become a key number, 992 00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:35,000 So if you like the under, you're probably not going 993 00:46:35,079 --> 00:46:36,800 to find that forty seven. Now, I would play the 994 00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:38,679 under forty six forty five and a half, and it's 995 00:46:38,679 --> 00:46:41,360 definitely a contrarian call. Hard for me to make a 996 00:46:41,400 --> 00:46:43,360 case because the last game was high scoring, but I'll 997 00:46:43,400 --> 00:46:45,760 go back to that first game, which was only twenty 998 00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:47,880 one nineteen. I do a rescore model for all the 999 00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:50,760 NFL games based on the drive charts with the expected 1000 00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:52,960 score should have been. I actually had that game at 1001 00:46:53,039 --> 00:46:56,840 forty one. I had the rematch at fifty six. What's interesting, though, 1002 00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:59,519 is I had the road team dominating both games, yet 1003 00:46:59,519 --> 00:47:02,760 they both lost the games. On the field, they actually 1004 00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:04,840 were the better team in both games. Seattle I had 1005 00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:07,760 winning by thirteen back in November on the rescore, and 1006 00:47:07,800 --> 00:47:10,159 I had the Rams winning by fourteen last month in 1007 00:47:10,199 --> 00:47:12,960 December at Seattle. So LA is definitely a live dog 1008 00:47:13,000 --> 00:47:15,199 in this game. And let's not forget there was only 1009 00:47:15,239 --> 00:47:17,960 twenty points in the first half of that seventy five 1010 00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:20,559 point game, and the first half was under in both 1011 00:47:20,639 --> 00:47:22,880 games so far this season, and we often see teams 1012 00:47:22,920 --> 00:47:25,400 come out conservative. Marco mentioned that he doesn't think the 1013 00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:27,400 Seahawks are going to ask Sam Darnold to do too much, 1014 00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:29,840 and I agree. He had what four interceptions in the 1015 00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:31,480 game in La. He had one or two the other 1016 00:47:31,760 --> 00:47:33,599 last month as well at home. I think it was 1017 00:47:33,599 --> 00:47:36,199 either five or six interceptions in the two games. So 1018 00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:39,400 if it is a conservative start, that first half under 1019 00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:40,920 might be the way to play it instead of the 1020 00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:43,440 full game. Because we're still getting twenty two and a 1021 00:47:43,440 --> 00:47:45,800 half twenty three. There's really not any difference. Twenty one 1022 00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:47,719 is the key number. So now that that line's dropped 1023 00:47:47,719 --> 00:47:49,920 to forty six forty five and a half, maybe look 1024 00:47:49,960 --> 00:47:54,199 at first half under twenty three, the first quarter maybe under, 1025 00:47:54,199 --> 00:47:56,159 but there's not a lot of value there. 1026 00:47:56,199 --> 00:47:56,400 Speaker 2: That's it. 1027 00:47:56,559 --> 00:47:58,480 Speaker 5: Nine and a half. Would have really liked it under ten. 1028 00:47:59,079 --> 00:48:01,440 But yeah, the contrarian call in the first game is Denver. 1029 00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:03,239 The controlling call in the second game is the under 1030 00:48:03,239 --> 00:48:04,679 with Seattle, La. If you want to be on the 1031 00:48:04,679 --> 00:48:06,920 sharp side and against the public, that's how you're playing 1032 00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:08,400 the two games today. 1033 00:48:08,719 --> 00:48:10,920 Speaker 1: Steve Merrill, you're the absolute best. And I see that 1034 00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:14,119 your video is crushing it right now on the wager 1035 00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:15,239 Talk YouTube page. 1036 00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:15,960 Speaker 2: Yeah. 1037 00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:19,239 Speaker 5: So yesterday I did I premiered my college basketball Top 1038 00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:22,400 twenty five aerial and it got around seven thousand views, 1039 00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:24,400 and I was disappointed. I'm thinking to myself, Man, you 1040 00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:26,960 got to wake up the NFL Faded the Public. 1041 00:48:27,119 --> 00:48:29,719 Speaker 1: You have, Merilyn all of my titles on YouTube, and 1042 00:48:29,920 --> 00:48:31,360 I take off because. 1043 00:48:31,159 --> 00:48:33,360 Speaker 5: Wow, it was funny to me. I mean, the head's 1044 00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:35,000 getting too big aero because I was thinking I used 1045 00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:36,639 to not even get seven thousand views on my Fade 1046 00:48:36,639 --> 00:48:38,760 the Public video and now I'm like disappointed. It's a 1047 00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:41,719 college basketball video which hadn't been out all year. That's 1048 00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:43,400 still really good for a Saturday But I do want 1049 00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:45,760 to remind people I'm doing that Saturday college hoops video 1050 00:48:46,119 --> 00:48:49,000 just like I did for college football as the hoops, 1051 00:48:49,039 --> 00:48:51,119 you know, talking about football is almost over. I know 1052 00:48:51,159 --> 00:48:53,679 it's sad, but hey, we got a ton of basketball 1053 00:48:53,679 --> 00:48:55,559 every day, and we got baseball. I know you're excited 1054 00:48:55,599 --> 00:48:59,000 about baseball right around the corner. That's the bread and buttersports, right. 1055 00:48:59,119 --> 00:49:00,599 Have fun with these two and a f L games today, 1056 00:49:00,599 --> 00:49:02,719 But if you're serious about making money, you want to 1057 00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:05,679 be playing basketball and baseball this spring and summer. And 1058 00:49:05,960 --> 00:49:08,119 we've got some special offers at water talk dot com 1059 00:49:08,119 --> 00:49:09,599 and I will have a ton of free play videos 1060 00:49:09,639 --> 00:49:12,199 or basketball each and every day. So click subscribe, click 1061 00:49:12,239 --> 00:49:14,000 the bell for instant alert. You'll never miss out here 1062 00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:14,840 on Wayter Talk TV. 1063 00:49:15,039 --> 00:49:16,239 Speaker 1: What are you promoting today? 1064 00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:18,760 Speaker 5: I do have a strong NFL best bet My top 1065 00:49:18,840 --> 00:49:21,199 NFL client best bet is available. As I mentioned earlier, 1066 00:49:21,199 --> 00:49:23,440 nobody's won more NFL profit over the past year plus 1067 00:49:23,440 --> 00:49:25,480 in the NFL. I'm also number one in the NBA 1068 00:49:25,519 --> 00:49:28,199 the last two months on best bet profit NBA is 1069 00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:30,360 doing fantastic and I do have that rest of season 1070 00:49:30,360 --> 00:49:33,159 special for the NBA up right now special discount at price. 1071 00:49:33,599 --> 00:49:35,400 And also if you want to try out just seven days, 1072 00:49:35,440 --> 00:49:37,880 get seven for the price of three. That's still available. 1073 00:49:38,159 --> 00:49:40,320 And also the one year investment approach for about a 1074 00:49:40,360 --> 00:49:43,320 dollar a play with an instant five hundred dollars discount. 1075 00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:46,559 All that's available, no bonus codes, need it, and don't forget. 1076 00:49:46,559 --> 00:49:48,400 Also a free play every day on my page. The 1077 00:49:48,480 --> 00:49:51,239 last cut just a bit outside goes up free on 1078 00:49:51,280 --> 00:49:53,199 my page, So check out the free play, check out 1079 00:49:53,199 --> 00:49:56,400 the best bets Steve merrillwater talk dot com and get 1080 00:49:56,400 --> 00:50:00,159 there quicker WT dot buzz slash sm Steve. 1081 00:50:00,039 --> 00:50:01,880 Speaker 1: You are the absolute best. Can't wait to talk to 1082 00:50:01,920 --> 00:50:04,400 you again later this week and talk about the super Bowl, 1083 00:50:04,480 --> 00:50:07,039 and of course we'll talk some basketball wager talk last 1084 00:50:07,079 --> 00:50:09,559 call here with Steve Merrill. You are the greatest. Good 1085 00:50:09,599 --> 00:50:10,920 luck today, I will see you soon. 1086 00:50:11,280 --> 00:50:11,800 Speaker 5: Thanks zerol. 1087 00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:12,360 Speaker 2: Great seeing you. 1088 00:50:14,039 --> 00:50:16,840 Speaker 1: Just a few more props. I've got the prop Queen 1089 00:50:16,920 --> 00:50:19,119 Guide by the way, on the prep queen dot com. 1090 00:50:19,119 --> 00:50:21,800 When you click newsletter, you could subscribe at the prop 1091 00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:24,639 Queen dot com and get the prop Queen Guide, which 1092 00:50:24,639 --> 00:50:28,800 gives you every offensive player prop that has a prop edge. 1093 00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:31,599 Some of the edges might be gone, some are still available, 1094 00:50:31,920 --> 00:50:33,639 but you can check it out at the prop queen 1095 00:50:33,679 --> 00:50:37,840 dot com get all of the prop edges of today. 1096 00:50:38,159 --> 00:50:41,039 A prop that I haven't mentioned yet to anybody, Ajbarnard, 1097 00:50:41,039 --> 00:50:43,280 the tight end vers Seattle. Look at his under on 1098 00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:45,480 receiving yards. It's gone down from twenty nine and a 1099 00:50:45,480 --> 00:50:47,559 half to twenty seven and a half. This was in 1100 00:50:47,599 --> 00:50:49,880 the Prop Queen Guide which went out Thursday, and I 1101 00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:52,840 said the under twenty nine and a half has value 1102 00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:56,519 because he's averaging even though he's done well. It was 1103 00:50:56,559 --> 00:50:59,119 like a fishy line because he had seventy and forty 1104 00:50:59,159 --> 00:51:01,679 nine receiving yards against the Rams this year, So why 1105 00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:03,800 was this number twenty nine and a half. Well, the 1106 00:51:03,880 --> 00:51:06,360 Rams have allowed the eighth least receiving yards per game 1107 00:51:06,400 --> 00:51:08,760 to tight ends, and sixty percent of tight ends in 1108 00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:12,119 the last ten games, or sorry, seventy one percent of 1109 00:51:12,199 --> 00:51:14,239 tight ends in the last ten games have gone under 1110 00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:17,280 their receiving yard prop. So definitely take a look at Ajbarner. 1111 00:51:17,519 --> 00:51:19,559 Anything else you need can either check out at the 1112 00:51:19,599 --> 00:51:22,199 prop Queen dot Com with the betting guide, or you 1113 00:51:22,199 --> 00:51:24,880 could look on the YouTube page at the Prop Queen. 1114 00:51:24,920 --> 00:51:28,320 I'm going to be posting some props right now, right 1115 00:51:28,360 --> 00:51:30,000 after this, so I'm going to post some props there 1116 00:51:30,039 --> 00:51:33,079 to the YouTube page at the Prop Queen media page 1117 00:51:33,119 --> 00:51:35,519 on the channel. But you got all the props, Roniani, 1118 00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:37,840 you got a bunch of props from me. I hope 1119 00:51:37,840 --> 00:51:39,960 we gave you some winners today here on the show. 1120 00:51:40,119 --> 00:51:41,920 Good Luck to all of your bets. We will not 1121 00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:44,960 have a last call on Sunday next week, but we 1122 00:51:45,039 --> 00:51:47,519 will of course have one for the super Bowl. I 1123 00:51:47,559 --> 00:51:52,920 will see you all then. Good Luck today