Speaker 1: It's Last Call Sunday, Championship Sunday and the NFL. I'm
the prep Queen Aria Epstein. We've got a great, great, great,
great group of people coming on the show today, so
I'm really excited. We've got VR obviously, he's on every
Sunday with us, giving us all the sharp groups and
what they are betting today. Then we're going to be
joined by Marco DiAngelo and Steve Merrill. We're all breaking
down the games from all different angles. I'll give you
guys some props at the end of the show. I've
been known well, so I'm hoping that nothing comes to
an end this weekend. It's also a reminder that every
team of ours that's not named the Patriots, the Broncos,
the Seahawks or the Rams are not good enough to
be here today. But we are, and so is Jared Sidham. Unbelievable.
I can't believe Jared Sidham's revenge game is going to
take over the AFC Championship. So game start at three
pm Eastern, then the NFC is going to be six
thirty pm Eastern. It is a snowy blizzard here today
in New York, so I'm very excited to be inside watching,
but very excited to also see what our next guest
hat is of the day. Yoanny Degree joining us life
from Las Vegas. I'm sure it's not snowing there. Yanni's
wearing the billy that we mean business today.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're war zoned today. We'mot. I just moved like
fifty dimes.
Speaker 3: I swear, where's the props right now? Through all these accounts,
we just hold on before I start, Before we start,
I need to address I need to address the very
first comment in the room, because I tell you when
I win and I tell you when I lose. And
this channel is dedicated towards winning. It's dedicated towards making
the viewers sharper betters, making them more profitable, betters, helping
those that are negative V slowly turned positive EV. But
the only way we do that is by keeping it
real and talking truths. And here's what we need to share.
I'm coming off of a loss of a five percent
last night, and I'm sure a lot of my subscribers
are mad because we were running really hot, having a
great twenty twenty six, and that was a chalky bet
minus to twenty on Patty who lost that fight as
a five percent, and this gentleman's mad because he's saying
you went one in five or one in seven on
your last five percent. Here's what I can tell you,
because I always keep it real. I don't want anyone
spending a single penny on my information unless our goals
are aligned, and my goals in this gentleman's goals are
not aligned.
Speaker 2: My only goal. I have one goal, and that's when
December thirty first rolls around, to be profitable. That's it.
Speaker 3: I do this for money. I don't do it for
any other reason. I could care less about watching this stuff.
I could care less about cheering in player props or
any of that nonsense. I do this for money. That's
the only reason. And here's what I can tell you.
Speaker 2: I went and.
Speaker 3: Looked twenty twenty to three four point five percent return
on investment one five percents, twenty twenty four, five point
two percent return on investment on five percent. Twenty twenty
five just passed fifteen point seven percent return on investment
on five percent over fifty units of profit. Brother, that's
I can't do better than that in the short term. Yeah,
I'm gonna lose a couple. I'm gonna win a couple,
but the only goal I have is long term to
be profitable. And yes, in twenty twenty six, I am
one and three on my five percent, I am negative,
but it's the first month.
Speaker 2: I have eleven months to go. And over the last
three years we produced over.
Speaker 3: Twenty five percent return on investment on those five percent.
So again, I don't mean to go long, but these
are the kind of of topics that we got to
cover because if you got buried because of one bet,
you're doing it wrong. Like if you need a lock
to save your week to get you out of the hole,
you're doing it wrong. The five percent for me is
point two five percent of bankroll more than a four percent.
Speaker 2: That's it.
Speaker 3: So for example, if I have a ten thousand dollars bankroll,
my four percents one hundred dollars bet my five percent
one hundred and twenty five dollars. It's worth twenty five
dollars per ten grand bankroll to me. So if you
have a fifty grand bankroll, you only bet one hundred
and twenty five dollars more on a five than a four,
or you're doing it wrong. So that money management is
more important than anything else. Again, I tell you when
I win, I tell you when I lose, and we're
coming off a loss of a five percent, but those
have been so profitable. If you can't make money off
my five percent, again, you're doing it wrong. Now, let's
talk about the NFL, because I was gonna find me.
Speaker 1: I want to just say this, even though the chat
is blowing up about how great you are, you gave
me the best advice years ago when we first met,
when I was over at another company, the best advice
you ever gave me was riy I'll remember, just because
you go cold for a little bit doesn't mean that
your system doesn't work. If you know that your system
works long term, then you have to stick to it.
And if it stops working, then you could change what
you're doing. But you're in it for the long run.
And that's exactly what I always stand by when I
lose a bet, when I go cold, I say, remember
what Yanni said. You know your system works long term,
So if you're in it with Yanni, you're in it
long term, not for one day.
Speaker 2: Good girl.
Speaker 3: When in doubt, zoom out. Numbers never lie at the end.
That's why I say, keep records so you don't lie
to yourself. Your numbers will not lie. They'll tell you
the truth. We could all convince ourselves of anything well.
Speaker 1: And that's why Kelly and I always talk about using picket,
because picket is if.
Speaker 2: You documents your results.
Speaker 1: That's it, documents your results. You'll see when you win,
you see when you lose, you see what markets you're
good at, and you're able to see which leads your
best at betting Harley's prop sides totals. It tells you
what you've been good at and what you're not and
it automatically does it when you link your sports books.
You can use from a Codprep queen when you sign up.
But yeah, it is a very useful tool that you
don't have to do it yourself. You could just automatically
it does it for you. But Yanni, let's dive into
these winner today because we know that we'll bounce back,
and we've got the championship round of the playoffs before
we dive into the props. Because I'm really excited to
get your long list. I am very curious about this
first game three pm Eastern time. A lot of movement.
I mean, we've seen no movement really in on the
spread in game two, but in Game one this line went.
We know, the look ahead was one and a half
Broncos with bone Nicks, which now he's out. Then it
flips to the Broncos being dogs four and a half
five and a half. Now we're seeing three and a
half for the Patriots laying on the road in Denver.
What do you make of the line?
Speaker 3: Okay, the situation is this, as soon as the line
came out, the sharp betters are trying to get out
ahead of the market. So they're trying to determine what
the market's going to do, and they're looking at their
power ratings, so combined, they're expecting that the market's going
to overreact the bone Nicks being out because there's a
backup quarterback that hasn't really played in two years, two
plus years, hasn't had any much of a sample size.
They expected the betters to come in on New England
against Denver, so they wanted to get out ahead of
the market. They get on New England, that line moves up,
like you said, up to like five and a half.
I even saw some sixes out there. Then that's when
they start handicapping the matchup and they start to determine
that Wait a minute, bone Nicks, when you look at
his QBR, when you look at his pasting success rate,
he's really not that big of a drop off to
the backup. Meaning if you're just looking at the numbers
and you're covering the names up and you're not trying
looking at any of the games, and you're just looking
at what has bon Nicks done in twenty twenty five
and twenty twenty four, and what has stit Them done
the last two seasons that he has played, which is
twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three Vegas and Denver.
Speaker 2: Those are the last two years. We have a.
Speaker 3: Significant sample size for him, and when you look at
the qbr' it's very comparable. One Nix is averaging about
a ninety over the last two seasons, and stid Them
over his two seasons twenty twenty two and twenty three
is about eighty eight eighty nine.
Speaker 2: So not a big drop off.
Speaker 3: And I think the betting syndicates when they started seeing
coupled with a coach who's dealt with this situation. Remember
he's dealt with this in New Orleans he's dealt with
this in the past, where he has to bring in
a serviceable backup whose job is not to win the game,
it's just not to lose the game.
Speaker 2: Also, and he's gotten the job done with a solid.
Speaker 3: Game plan and with Denver being primarily a defensive team.
They won it with defense, right, not with offense. They're
barely an average offensive best. I think that's when you
started seeing the switch and the conclusion started being.
Speaker 2: The narrative was, wait, they overreacted.
Speaker 3: No quarterback is worth this if his backup's not that
big of a drop.
Speaker 2: That's the key.
Speaker 3: The value over replacement player is one of the big
best correlations to winning bets, Like, if you're good at
pricing replacement players, you'll make a lot of money betting sports.
But I think that's what happened here, overreaction to what
the drop off is. And as the handicaps started, you know,
coming to fruition and people started doing work, they started seeing, way,
this line's a little bit too high, and that's why
it's dropped. Now we're not going to see the key
number of three. That's not happening. So we're really talking
about should it be five, Should it be four should
it be.
Speaker 2: Three and a half?
Speaker 3: Like again, every half point matters, especially when you're talking
about the NFL. But unless this gets to three, it
isn't all that significant. With that said, I do say this,
if you're betting New England today, you better be looking
to lay three and a half or three even discounted.
If you're betting Denver today, you better be looking for fours.
The worst you should have is four. You should even
be looking for four and a half, and you could
buy that hook at anything less than one twenty or better,
because the half of a point from three and a
half to four is worth more than the ten cents
they charge us, especially in a conference championship game like today.
Today's the kind of day where you do want to
use teasers, even though they're not woable. Today's the day
where every half point does matter. In fact, there were
odds book makers that have gone on records saying Conference
Championship the teaser line should be closer to minus one
seventy one eighty based on history, and a lot of
books even limit their teasers. I know a book of
Mind that would take five thousand from me on a
teaser six point teaser during the regular season, will take
five hundred today and even though it's a big playoff game,
because again they think the points really matter when it
comes even though it doesn't like historically, we know it
doesn't this round of the playoffs.
Speaker 2: Pick the winner, you're going to catch a ticket, and
we know it. It's hold true. So far in these playoffs.
Speaker 3: I think every single game the spreads only mattered, and
like two or three of them, so it's hold true
or eight out of ten times you pick the winner,
you're gonna cash a ticket. So if you like New England,
you shouldn't be afraid to lay it. If you like Denver,
you shouldn't be afraid to take the points. Same thing
with I mean take the money line. Same thing with
Ram Seattle. If you're betting dogs today, don't be afraid
of the money line. If you're betting favorites, again, usually
the spread doesn't matter, so you want to lay the
points and not the money line.
Speaker 1: Johnny, I was looking at the total for this game,
and on Sunday I saw the total at forty and
a half. Now we're all the way up to forty
three and a half. How do you what are your
groups doing with the total.
Speaker 2: I bet it over me and my subscribers.
Speaker 1: Will still bet over forty three and a half since
we're done.
Speaker 2: No no, I went over forty one. I went over
forty one.
Speaker 3: And because this is exactly what I thought was going
to happen, I thought they brought it out sure, because
of the quarterback situation. Number one, you have two teams
that are defensive minded. Both of them are stronger on
the defensive side of the ball than the offensive side
of the ball, a lot stronger, almost two x better
in their rankings defensively than offensively. So usually you're gonna
get the total to reflect that. So we're gonna get
a lower total than we should get. Then you get
an injured quarterback, so they're gonna bring it even shorter
than they should.
Speaker 2: It was the perfect storm to go over.
Speaker 3: The only thing I was worried about are the betting
sin that gets gonna steam it on there, And am
I gonna look like a fool?
Speaker 2: Like? Am I going over forty one?
Speaker 3: And then I'm gonna look up and look at a
thirty nine three days later because it's gonna snow in
Denver or something like that. That was my only fear
getting down early, and I was holding my breath because
usually this late in the playoffs, you're not gonna get
line movement unless it's a big injury or it's weather related,
and in this case, that wasn't it. I mean, yeah,
it was little injury related, but it was more the
overreaction to the total. And again I had it power rated.
My total was forty five, so I was gonna bet
it over, and I didn't think the drop off with
Stidham was that big to stop me from betting that over.
Speaker 2: So I'm glad I did it. I did my job,
but now they got to do theirs.
Speaker 3: It's like, again, you could do yours perfectly, but they
got to go out and do theirs now today And hopefully.
Speaker 1: I probably got a crazy question for you that it
sparked my mind that you said, now the number has
gone for betting the overs. So what I've realized a
lot of people are doing now, especially on these apps
like DKA, Fandel, et cetera. They're able to take these
alt totals and alt spreads and parlay them together. People
have been doing this, Like I was on the show
the other day and they said, I'm going to take
the alt total of forty one and a half parlay
it with an alt spread of Patriots minus one and
a half. How would you advise people go about Like
would you say, sure, do it because a win's a
win or are you going to tell people that that's
bad because it's not plus ev.
Speaker 3: Save your money? What are you doing, like if you're
doing this for fun? Honestly, Like, we got to keep
it real.
Speaker 2: I get it.
Speaker 3: All those guys out there on social media and all
the sports betting influencers that are getting one hundred dollars
to do a video and tell you to oh and parlay.
Speaker 2: Great. God bless them. They're making their living and they should.
But we know the.
Speaker 3: Truth and the truth is parlays are crushing betters. There
is no way around it. I mean I talked about
it the other day on Wade You Talk Today. Just go
to watch Breaking Points. It's like a news show online.
And they actually had a high executive from FanDuel A
next executive. Never before has someone that high up gone
on the record and actually given his name, and he
shared so much information in that fifteen minute conversation that
he had. I think every sports better should listen to
it because he talks about exactly that, and how they're
separating betters from their money faster than they even.
Speaker 2: They're comfortable with.
Speaker 3: Like they're like, wait a minute, we're separating these young.
Speaker 2: People from their money too quickly.
Speaker 3: Should we give them a little better parlay odds because
they're just burning through cash too fast. Like they're even
feeling sorry for the betters because they're taking such the
worst of it.
Speaker 2: Bro, they know your biases.
Speaker 1: The fact think that if they're putting these two leg
parlays together and all, they really love the over, but
not forty three and a half. They'll taken over forty
and a half. And they love the Patriots to win,
but they don't want to lay three and a half.
They'll lay one and a half, and they think that
they're guaranteeing themselves a win.
Speaker 3: You're not getting that. That's what you don't understand. I
see it right now, I'm looking at it. That's what
I did while while you were talking. Right now, I
looked in the back end and I said, let me
look at some foolish bets that people are making. And
here's one that someone made right now, and this is
what they did. They have New England Okay, they took
New England down the minus two for minus four, but
they're laying minus one seventy five. Okay, so now at
minus one ten, so they could have had New England
minus it's probably minus one oh five. They could have
New England minus four, probably minus one oh five. Let's
say New England minus four minus one ten. So that
means they don't think there's a fifty two percent chance
greater than fifty two percent chance that New England could
win by four or more, but they think that there's
greater than a sixty three percent chance that.
Speaker 2: They could win by two or more. What are you
talking about?
Speaker 3: Like, in what world does that make sense that you
don't think they could win by four fifty two percent
of the time, but they will do it by more
than two sixty three percent. Again, these people are a
lot smarter than me. I'm sure they have degrees, I'm
sure they've a lot more educated, they've read more than me.
But you put him in a casino setting and the
smartest people become idiots.
Speaker 2: Like they're they're placing, Like if you.
Speaker 3: Just tell them what they did and they wouldn't even
understand it, like they would be like that what I
just said to you, This guy didn't think laying one
ten made sense to him, so he does that's what
minus one ten is fifty two and a half percent,
that's the break even. So he didn't think there was
a fifty two and a half percent chance that New
England could win by four, but he thinks there's a
sixty five percent chance that they win by more than two.
Speaker 2: What are you talking about? Like?
Speaker 3: In what world does that like? What are you saying
that that you you you're that sure it's going to
land on three, that you're ensuring it, bro? What do
you like if you're that psychic?
Speaker 2: Bro?
Speaker 4: Hey, I just.
Speaker 1: Don't want to get your thoughts on it, because I
know a lot of people are.
Speaker 2: Going to I'm urging better to do this stuff.
Speaker 1: I knew it was going to send you off on
a tangent. Let's stalk the real stuff. NFC Championship Game,
Seahawks Rams, we haven't seen this spread move at all
at two and a half. Of course, on a normal Sunday,
it'd be a very nice teaser. Leg and I know
you and Kelly were laughing on bet on it that
you guys teased it with. Yeah, but Okay, so today,
if someone were to want to look at this game
and say, who is the right side, Johanny, I'm a
little biased. I really need the Rams to win the
super Bowl because then I'll win fifty K survivor and
I'll be really happy.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So, I mean, I don't know if I'll win the
full but I'm in a the Splash sports contest that
Kelly and I did, but at least I get a
portion of it. If the Rams win.
Speaker 3: Listening for you, I'm happy to pick up I win
four times if the Rams win the super Bowl. I
found this future I'd put for like a nickel back
in I don't even remember when. And I'm like, well,
i got four thousand pending on the Rams, but I'll
tell you the truth.
Speaker 1: I got Seattle. I mean, I feel like the public's
on Seattle today.
Speaker 2: They are, they are, they are.
Speaker 3: But when it comes this late in the season, I
got to do what works for me because I tried
to get a little cute in the in the wild
card round and it cost me. I said, bro, how
did you finish number one in college and NFL by
just trusting your power ratings?
Speaker 2: That's all you did.
Speaker 3: They're not going to be right all the time, but
that's how you did it. And last week I went
back to just trusting my power ratings and I went
eight too and one, and this week both sides and
both totals are off according to my power ratings. So
I just followed the script. And Seattle's there for me
because I made the number four, believe it or not.
And I love the Rams again. I was so high
on the Rams because of the quarterback success rate, because
they're they're so well balanced offensively and defensively that I
actually put that future that I didn't even remember. That's
how high I was on the Rams and had them
power rated number one, so probably about two weeks ago.
But yeah, I gotta trust my numbers. And on a
neutral field, Seattle should be is not a dog. Let's
just put it that way. I won't go as far
as saying Seattle should be favored, but they shouldn't be
a dog that much we know, so it's say we
make it pick them on a neutral field. You gotta
give my my squad something for home field advantage, right,
and they also should progress towards the mean. They've had
set what seven turnovers in the two games versus the
Rams that shouldn't continue like that shouldn't be sustainable. You
should play have a little better luck than that. So
everything points to Seattle.
Speaker 2: I get it.
Speaker 3: The publics on them. Don't let that scare you when
it comes this late in the playoffs, when it comes
to the super Bowl, don't care what the public's on,
because I promise you the books are going to do
just fine.
Speaker 2: I get it.
Speaker 3: They're gonna tell you if the Rams win the super Bowl,
we win this much. If this team wins, we win
that much. This team wins will win that blah blah
blah blah. I promise you could look back for I've
lived here for thirty plus years. Every single month they
report what they've done. And in the thirty years I've
been here, So what that makes it? What?
Speaker 2: Four hundred months? Almost?
Speaker 3: I think they may have lost one or two of those.
Have they not turned the profit? So don't worry about
what Vegas needs. Vegas is just fine. They're gonna do
just fine regardless of what we bet. So don't worry
about what the public is on.
Speaker 2: This late. There's so much volume, it's so balanced that.
Speaker 3: When you're laying eleven to ten, and when they're laying
one twenties and one thirties on these teasers and taking
the worst of it on these parlays. Trust me, it
don't matter what the public's on. If you have conviction
and you like a side or total, bet it, bet it,
bet it. It's that part of the year, at that
time of the year for.
Speaker 1: The NFC Championship, we're also seeing the total drop. It
was forty seven and a half last Sunday, it's now
forty five and a half. How would you approach the total, Well, it's.
Speaker 2: The sharp side. I thought that was gonna happen.
Speaker 3: Listen, we saw them score seventy plus points a couple
weeks ago and they adjusted down off of that. What
does that tell you that they knew that the wise
guys were going to look to go under in this
game because the first game was so lower, lower scoring.
Speaker 2: And then all of a sudden, you saw that.
Speaker 3: Shootout after the adjustment last time, and what did they do.
They didn't adjust back down, They didn't adjust that up.
They brought it out at forty seven. I expected this
to drop down, but the public money going over is
what stopped this from going down to like that forty
five range because I saw multiple groups on the under
even at forty six, and I think that's still a
valuable Okay, yeah, there's even forty six is still out
there because of the public money on the over. And
again they just saw these two teams score seventy plus.
They're not betting this game on there unless they saw,
like Blizzard win crazy conditions. I think you're going to
get a lot over money, and I think that risk
is just gonna increase, and they're gonna need the sharps
to be right with the under when that one kicks off.
Speaker 1: Before we let you go, I need those props.
Speaker 3: All right, let me give you different props in the
steam seat. Let me tell you what was in there.
A lot of these probably got away. But Pooka Pooka
rushing yards his rushing yards over four and a half,
Hunter Henry receiving yards over forty one and a half,
Davonte Adams passed receptions under four and a half. Also
went Davonte Adams passing receiving yards under Colby.
Speaker 1: Parkings Adams over receptions.
Speaker 3: Under Under Adams under four and a half receptions and under.
I think it was like forty nine and a half
receiving yards if I'm right, Colby Parkinson over twenty two
and a half receiving yards Shahed pass receptions pass receptions
for Shahed under one and a half. And here I'm
the premiums that I gave out as well. These are
premium these Gay went through subscribers three percent plays.
Speaker 2: I'll just give them to you.
Speaker 3: Hunter Henry over three and a half receptions minus one fifteen.
R J. Harvey receiving yards over twenty and a half.
That was good to minus one fifty, so we thought
six out of ten times he gets over twenty and
a half.
Speaker 2: R J. Harvey.
Speaker 3: Kenneth Walker receiving yards over twenty and a half, twenty
one and a half and twenty two and a half.
So Kenneth Walker the third expected to have a good game.
And I gave you the Devonte Adam receiving yards under
forty nine and a half. So I just gave you one, two, three, four,
all four of my premium prompts. And if I'm not mistaken,
I agree on the Henry one.
Speaker 1: I have him at thirty nine and a half receiving yards.
Hunter Henry over thirty nine and a half receiving yards
is what I bet you get forty You gave out
forty one and a half receiving.
Speaker 2: I gave out what over forty one?
Speaker 1: Yeah, you said over forty one and a half receiving
you're thirty nine and a half.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, why not? Sure it is well?
Speaker 1: I mean I don't I don't know if it's still
out there, but it was out there, like yeah, three
days ago.
Speaker 2: The props have been so good.
Speaker 3: I think I was perfect last week on the premium
something like four and oh five, and oh I think
the week before that.
Speaker 2: But those are the four I used for my subscribers.
Speaker 3: DeVante Adams under forty nine and a half receiving yards,
Kenneth Walker over twenty one and a half receiving yards,
Hunter Henry over three and a half receptions, and Harvey
receiving yards over twenty.
Speaker 2: And a half. So yeah, three overs in and under
there you go.
Speaker 3: I just gave you guys at all that bond you
good stuff, good stuff.
Speaker 1: Yeah, what do you you got? The steam room.
Speaker 2: Today coming up?
Speaker 3: It's coming up at nine. We're gonna go an hour
and we're gonna do it again next week. I'll decide
where Saturday or Sunday, but I want to do Sunday
for the Super Bowl. But after that it's gonna be Saturdays.
Saturdays in UH because that's when we have all the
college basketball, so much information. We're crushing hoops right now
in NBA. Been very selective, crushing NBA, crushing college basketball.
So we're gonna move it to Saturday. And of course
MMA is back UFC on Saturdays. And make sure if
you're betting your own stuff, you want to look at
that steamsheet. Just look at what stuff was shared in there. Yesterday,
College basketball, NBA and the UFC went like five and
two on the steam that was in there. So for
those handicappers out there, good stuff. And again today's package
that's all both sides, both totals and four player props.
May add some more, we'll see, but see you at
noon in the steam room.
Speaker 2: Thanks Aara. Oh good luck to everybody today.
Speaker 1: Thanks Yanni, good luck today. Coming on now, we're gonna
be joined by Marco D'Angelo known as Marco in Vegas.
It's we're just gonna have the whole bet on it
Crea today. I absolutely love it. Marco, Happy Sunday.
Speaker 4: Happy Sunday. But It's also sad it's only three more
football games Thereel, and I know.
Speaker 1: I'm I was thinking about how today I have like
two games and then we're done until the super Bowl.
It's just so depressing to think that next week I'm
gonna sit there like twiddling my thumbs. But then I
leave San Francisco with Kelly and Vegas. So I should
just pre I'll pray for you, and we're going to
be in Vegas for margrendous, so I apprear for all
of us in that situation. Okay, Margo, we've got the
AFC Championship that doesn't feature either of our teams. Actually,
that reminds me. How do you feel about Mike McCarthy,
mister Steeler?
Speaker 2: You want the unedited version? Yeah?
Speaker 4: Uh, this is exactly how I feel about it. I
don't like it. And why I don't like it, Ariel
is the Steelers. What they've done with the coaching decision
they made is just an extension I feel of what
they've done the last two years. Regarding the quarterback. It's
a band aid. Remember two years ago they went out
and signed Russell Wilson for that thinking they were going
to catch lightning in a Bottle for you know that
one year that didn't work out. Then we did Aaron
Rodgers last year. Going from Mike Tomlin to Mike McCarthy.
You know, you got a veteran coach. He's been there,
he's done that. I get that. I understand he's a
Pittsburgh native that helped as well, but it's a band aid.
This is not what the Steelers need if you want
to look long term future and try to bring the
offense to you know, twenty twenty six standards. We'll see
what happens. He is more of an offensive coach, we
get that, but you know he's still you know, he's
been around forever. I was hoping they would go with
a younger, you know, coordinator do that, and this is
the oldest coach hiring that they've had out of the
last three. Remember when they hired Kower and they hired Tomlin,
they were both young in getting their first head coaching
jobs and it worked out well. So we'll see what happens.
But I'm not a fan of the signing.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I felt like the Ravens won that one, But
I guess we'll let the results speak next year. Because
neither of our teams are in it this year AFC
Championship game, Denver Broncos Jarrett Stidham hosting the New England Patriots.
We've seen this line go all the way around. It
was five and a half, four and a half, now
three and a half. Marco, what do you make of
this side in total?
Speaker 4: Well, you know what you've seen happen with the line
is what I thought originally. Now there's been discussions on
what would the line have been had bo Nicks been in,
and most people settled in at one and a half.
I was on a little bit on the higher side.
I thought Denver would have been a two and a
half point favorite, given the fact that the line closed
in the Buffalo game last week with Denver minus one
and a half. You put New England and Buffalo side
by side on a neutral field, Buffalo's gonna be the
favorite in that game. And that's why I thought the
line would have been a little higher with Denver versus
New England. With that said, when this number come out
at you know, five and five and a half, when
it got to its peak, that was just way too
many points. Okay, I know Jared Stidham has not played
meaningful football in over two years. But seven point over
seven points or more for bo Nicks isn't just an
over statement. And that's the books knowing what the public's
gonna do. The public doesn't like to take injured teams,
especially when it comes to the quarterback position. Also when
it's a quarterback that hasn't played, they overreact even more so.
I thought the line was too high, set it on,
bed on it, and we've seen the line shift around
as it's come back. And this is gonna be one
of those classic ones Ariel where we said, is it
gonna be the Joe's versus the pros? Because the public's
gonna want New England, the sharper guys want Denver, and
I agree with the Denver side, and I'll throw in
the other situation there when you look at this because
he hasn't played. Now I realize that he was New
England and he was with Josh McDaniels both at New
England and the short the term head coaching job that
he had here in Las Vegas Josh McDaniels. So everybody says,
well he knows Jared's Didham. Well, apparently he doesn't know
him very well because he couldn't get anything out of him. Okay,
we'll see what Sean Payton does. But here's the thing.
There is no game, real game film on him for
the last two years. So that gives Denver, in my opinion,
a built in little advantage because New England doesn't totally
know what the game plan for, so we're gonna have
that element of surprise. So, as I said on bed
on It, one of the first wagers I thought was
good in this situation is I like Denver in the
first half because I think that you know, they'll get
in there and make some adjustments at halftime New England
to whatever Denver's doing. But I think Denver's gonna have
a few surprises for them, and I expect them to
get out to a quicker start, and I'll grab the
three points that were available at the time for the
first half wager on Denver. The other element that we
always talk about, and we didn't go into detail on
bet on It, but the injured player theory. And this
is something that you know I've said for years that
whenever a team suffers an injury to a star player,
that first game after the injury, they're a play on
for several reasons. One, what we just talked about, there's
gonna be an over adjustment to the line because Vegas
knows what the public's gonna do and they're gonna make
them pay to do it. The second part of it
is is the team itself. The team. We use the
phrase that everybody else steps it up a notch and
they're gonna play it. You know, uh, they're gonna give
one hundred and ten percent, even though we know you
can't give more than one hundred percent. But it's a
phrase we use well.
Speaker 5: Ariel.
Speaker 4: One of the things that I like about I do
a radio show here in Vegas two days a week,
and a lot of people ask me why do you
bother doing that? Because I get to talk to current
inform or coaches and players on the radio show. And
this Friday when I was doing the show, and if
you're ever in Vegas on Friday, stop by.
Speaker 1: We oh did Marco breeze? We lost Marco No? We
lost Marco oh No? And I heard he has a
good story too. I'm sure he'll be back, but I
feel like we should take him off the screen until
he comes back. Lily, it's frozen in a bad spot.
Let me know when we get Marco back, and you
can just throw him back on the screen. Apparently Marco
has a good story too about some injured player theory
that I wanted to dive into. And now I'm trying
to figure out do we go to Steve Merrill or
do we talk some props and try to get Marco
back in case anyone did miss it. Janni the Greek
gave us some props, So some of the props in
case we've got I know, we've got a lot and
more people to trumen and now Puka Nakua over rushing yards,
Hunter Henry over receiving yards. DeVante Adams under receptions and
under receiving yards, Kobe Parkinson over twenty two and a
half receiving yards, Shaheed under one and a half receptions,
Hunter Henry over three and a half receptions. R J.
Harvey over twenty and a half receiving yards, Kenneth Walker
over receiving yards. I will tell you this going off
those so I have Hunter Henry over thirty nine and
a half receiving yards. I only women are interested in
the halftime show. Get the hell out of here, bro
Hunter Henry. I loved it. Because when you look at
Hunter Henry's numbers against teams that are bottom ten against
in receiving yards allowed to tight ends, he's averaging five receptions,
sixty seven and a half receiving yards, and twenty one
yards per longest reception. Denver ninth most receiving yards per
game allowed to tight ends. In fact, sixty one percent
of tight ends in the last ten games over the
receiving yards prop and seventy one percent went over their
receptions prop in the last ten games against Denver. So
the Broncos have been struggling this year. Went up against
tight ends Kenneth Walker. I will warn you guys on
the running back for the Seahawks, that is one of
the most bet on props of the day, Kenneth Walker
over receiving yards. So what I ended up doing was
going over his longest reception prop of eleven and a
half yards. I think he should have one good catch
that he busts open with. He's up against the defense
that is bottom ten and receiving yards allowed to running backs,
so the matchup is great. He's not really splitting carries
with anybody. Now that Zach Charbonnay is out for the
season with a torny ACL so I would just focus
on that bet with Kenneth Walker. What else did I
like today that Yannie didn't mention. I also wanted to
mention that the Denver quarterback Jarretts did his passing yard
prop went from one ninety eight and a half to
two eight and a half. The number was low because
in all four of Jared's Didham's last four games that
he started back to twenty twenty two, he did have
two hundred plus passing yards. So maybe this was a
bit of an overreaction, but New England has allowed the
ninth least passing yards per game to quarterbacks, So just
be a little weary of that two oh eight and
a half now, because it was one ninety eight and
a half, I think people realized it was low, but now.
I mean, I didn't like the over to begin with,
but I would definitely be staying away from the Jared
Stidham props today. Uh, Mark, you're back, We're back.
Speaker 4: We'll lost internet here love Cox Internet in Vegas stuff.
Speaker 2: That's my I was gonna say.
Speaker 1: We're the ones that should be losing internet. We've got
a blizzard outside, we've got Steve Meryl waiting in the wings,
so I don't want to keep them waiting too long.
But you mentioned some parts of that Broncos game, but
there was an injured player theory that Kelly wanted me
to bring up to you, and you said that you
have a great story.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 4: And when I do radio here in Vegas, I get
to talk to a lot of former players and stuff.
And I asked on Friday Trevor Matich, twelve year NFL alignment.
I asked him about what's it like when you have
a star player out like this? Okay, because we have theories,
but obviously I've never played pro sports. I can only
you know, give my theory. And he confirmed everything that
I've always thought about it. He says that when you
lose a player like that, everybody else does take it
up a notch. And he says in him being you know,
a center, he goes, when we've got a backup quarterback,
Everybody in that offensive lineman room, you know, we look
with each other in the eye and say, this game's ours.
It's our job to protect him. It's our job to
open up the lanes for the running backs. We have
to make it easier for him and That's why I
like to do it. You're getting extra points because Vegas
is going to over adjust the lines, and the players
do take that extra step. They're more focused, they know
what they got to do, they have more attention to detail.
On the flip side of it, aria if you're a
player on the other team, mentally, you have that little
you know what, we just caught a break. You know,
maybe you exhale and say, hey, we caught a break,
don't you know. We don't have to worry about bo Nicks.
We've got Jared Stidham. That's a mental advantage for the
injured team, and I agree with it. I am on Denver.
I think Denver is the side, and I think there's
really three ways you can attack Denver. I already said
earlier Denver first half, because I think they're gonna have
a bigger adjustment. They're gonna have a better chance in
the first half getting a lead because New England doesn't
know what to look for. Also full game obviously, but
the total team total on Denver is only seventeen and
a half because they're not giving them any chance offensively.
I think Sean Payton, we've seen it so many times
he's gonna have a couple surprises. I think they get
over that seventeen and a half points. I would like
them team total as well. So there you go. You
got three ways to play Denver, all in the same game.
Speaker 1: How about for the late game NFC Championship. This line
hasn't moved. It's been sitting at two and a half
the entire week. I wish we could tease it. We can't.
The total has dropped as well. Seahawks and Rams.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that Seattle if Sam Darnal and this
is the big Ques question mark, if he has a
cleaning game, Seattle wins this game comfortably, okay, And I
don't think they're gonna put Sam Darnald in a position
where he has to carry the team. They're going to
try to run the football. I know they're down one
running back. But the Rams, this is the third game
in a row on the road, and they haven't stopped
anybody in the first two games. Carolina moved the football
and we saw what the Bears did. Now they're playing
a Seattle team that can run the football, has a
quality quarterback.
Speaker 1: Yeah, oh no, we lost Marco again. Okay, but there
is no oh all right, we've.
Speaker 4: Got to get to see you lay it with Seattle.
Speaker 1: Well we got that, Barton, Okay, you cut out again,
but light with Seattle, everybody. Marco di'angelo, gadgam at mark
Win Vegas. What are you promoting today?
Speaker 4: Yeah, you can check out what I've gotten football. I'll
be adding some basketball and hockey, uh to the card
here when I get done with you guys, and grab
that seven day all access package at wager Talker. That's
the best deal going. And a programming note for bet
on It. No bet on it this week, but we're
gonna have our special super Bowl edition on Monday, February second,
so we'll make a note of that instead of the
normal Wednesday, It'll be on Monday February second.
Speaker 1: I love to hear it. I will be listening. Marco D'Angelo,
thank you as always. We'll talk to you soon.
Speaker 4: Okay, take care.
Speaker 1: Last, certainly not least be great Steve Merrill joining the show.
We're gonna get his thoughts all throughout the board of
today's Championship Day. How are you, Steve?
Speaker 5: We always think alike. Ariel I was gonna say it's
very iron that the guy in Las Vegas froze twice
when you and I are literally freezing on the East
coast right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just climb.
Speaker 1: We got paser with the problem. But I will say
this as much crap as Kelly wants to give me
for living in New York. The one perk of living
in New York City, it is very rare that in
an apartment building in New York City that you lose power.
Speaker 2: Interesting, Yeah, very rare.
Speaker 1: We've got so many generators in this building.
Speaker 5: Oh, I got you.
Speaker 1: I haven't lost power yet in five years, so hopefully
that doesn't happen today for the tamship.
Speaker 5: Yeah, so it's been over five years for me as well,
because we haven't lost it since COVID. I was before that.
So yeah, let's hope we don't double jinks each other.
That's actually about the generator. So I was trying to
figure out why you wouldn't lose it, But that makes
a lot of sense.
Speaker 1: Too many people, too many people, they would have madness
if we lost any power.
Speaker 5: It's true. Yeah, it's ironic also that I was thinking
about this before coming on checking the latest weather reports
that you know, almost two thirds of the country as
of tomorrow are going to be a sub freezing temperatures
at some point like two hundred and twenty million people.
It's like one hundred and eighty million a day, about
half the country. Yet both NFL Championship games aren't gonna
have weather problems. Seattle is gonna be in the low forties,
high thirties, a little chili, and then Denver will maybe
get flurries in like the second half from what I'm seeing,
but nothing crazy. But it is gonna be cold in
that Denver game, and the windshill is going to be
extremely cold, but not wendy, So I do think scoring
conditions will be fine. We'll see how it affects the
quarterbacks maybe at Denver. Obviously New England quarterbacks Denver quarterbacks
are used to it. Drake Mays young, but I think
he's probably played some cold games this year.
Speaker 1: What do you like in that game between the Broncos
taken on the Patriots.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I was hoping Marco would freeze more because he
and I think so like so alike many times as
handicappers were most situational guys.
Speaker 2: It's funny.
Speaker 5: I'm doing the Best Betting Show now on Thursdays and
Fridays with Joe Vernari and the Pres here are a
way to talk TV each afternoon. To check that out
on Thursdays and Fridays, and Pres mentioned that a number
one all time. By the way, I do have an
NBA season special up on my page because I'm the
number one ranked NBA capper in the history of wager talk,
and Press mentioned that Teddy and Marco and I are
always vying for number one in the NBA, and as
he said that, I was thinking, that's interesting because we
have very similar handicapping styles. Teddy and I situational and
Marco is definitely a situational capper. And I thoroughly agree
with what he said about the injury handicaps, and that's
why both of us do so well in the NBA.
And you and I have talked about it also that
if you just blindly play those NBA teams without their
star player, especially that first game, they often went out right,
but you're getting tons of extra line value. The question
with NFL quarterbacks isn't how much an NFL quarterback has worth,
It's how much the difference is between the starter and
the backup. So I'm going to talk about this a
little more detailed than Marco did. I agree. First of all,
the teams step up, other teams overlook them. You definitely
get line value. This line is about a six touchdown
difference than what it would have been with bo Nicks.
So the question is Stindham really that much worse than
bow Knicks, And if you look at the numbers, I
don't think he is. Definitely some uncertainty with the guy
that hasn't thrown an NFL pass for the past two seasons,
but he's been with the now for three years. He
started several games with them three years ago before Knicks
came in. He also played five games with the Raiders
the year before that. Those two seasons when he started
several games with the Raiders and the Broncos, his QB
rating was about eighty eight and a half eighty nine.
Bodenicks has a ninety and a half career QB rating.
Stidham average seven and a half yards per pass. Knicks
averages about six and a half yards per pass in
his career. Actually Stidham has been better, although he had
different players there. Bodnicks does have a better touchdown interception ratio,
but the bottom line is the Broncos aren't winning this
year because of the quarterback. They're winning. I'm not going
to say despite the quarterback. He's been playing well, but
they're winning because of the defense and also a good
running game. So with extremely cold conditions, the better defense
getting points. And also I'll point out that the public
is on New England in this game. But this line
has been dropping all week. It was as high as
five to five and a half earlier the week four
four and a half when I did my video for
this Sunday, recorded that on Friday. Check that out here
on wager Talk TV. Now it's three and a half.
We have a sharp square divide in this game. The
public is leading the Patriots. The sharp money is still
on the Broncos. And I think it's an overreaction. And
let's not forget NFL home dogs or a long term
seventy percent play on the blind for over forty years
in the NFL playoffs. As my friend Mark Lawrence pointed
out this week, had this line state at plus four,
it would have been the biggest home dog in NFC
championship history and definitely the only number one seed that's
been that big of a dog. I think there's some
reasons to like the Broncos in area. It's tough for
me because I think the Broncos are a phony number
one seed. I've said that for several weeks now. But
the matchups in the line Valley keeps working for him.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that line just keeps moving in favor of Denver
and Jarrett'stidham, which is unbelievable. A line that we have
not seen move that Seahawks Rams game. It's been sitting
there at two and a half. Marco says he's laying
it with the Seahawks. I have a lot of good
friends who I trust in the betting world. They're laying
it with the Seahawks. The public is laying it with
the Seahawks. Steve Merril, are you laying it with the Seahawks?
Speaker 2: Exactly right?
Speaker 5: The line hasn't moved. It's a great point. And you
know I talked about the public is on the opposite
side of the line move in the Denver game. And
by the way, I thought Denver is a phony one seed.
I said last week are on my videos that the
Bears ray phony two seed, one of the worst defenses
in the league this year, was looking to fade them,
so what do I do? I used the Bears last
week plus the three and a half and four and
they cover and another best bet winner number one NFL
the past year plus now at wager Talk. So it
all comes down to the line value, right. You know,
maybe I'm looking to fade Denver, I'm looking at fad Chicago,
but these Lions just aren't right, so we cash with
the Bears. I think that Bronco game could be a
similar situation today with that three and a half four,
kind of like Chicago losing but covering. With that said,
this one, you probably picked the straight up winner. You're
gonna get the points spread winner. Three is the key number.
Doesn't look like it's going to hit that and whenever
you have the odds makers, the sports books everyone kind
of begging you to take the minus two and a half,
that's always a red flag for me. I think the
Rams have a very good shot in this game, and
let's not forget they won the home game twenty one
to nineteen back in mid November, and then of course
we got that rematch on Thursday Night Prime. One of
my sixteen and three free Prime winners was the over
in that rematch in mid Decivember sixty points in Regulations
seventy five at the end of overtime. But as Yanni said,
the sharp money's been on the under in this game,
yet the public is still on the over. When I
did the video a couple days ago, I said, hey,
forty six and a half. If you like the underweight,
the public's going to push this higher. Well, they haven't
been able to do it because the sharp money continues
to come in on the under. It's now forty six.
Even forty five and a half. Forty six is a
dead number, So forty five and a half forty six
and a half very little difference, one percent chance it
lands on the odd number. The evenly odd number of
forty six. Forty five, though, does become a key number,
So if you like the under, you're probably not going
to find that forty seven. Now, I would play the
under forty six forty five and a half, and it's
definitely a contrarian call. Hard for me to make a
case because the last game was high scoring, but I'll
go back to that first game, which was only twenty
one nineteen. I do a rescore model for all the
NFL games based on the drive charts with the expected
score should have been. I actually had that game at
forty one. I had the rematch at fifty six. What's interesting, though,
is I had the road team dominating both games, yet
they both lost the games. On the field, they actually
were the better team in both games. Seattle I had
winning by thirteen back in November on the rescore, and
I had the Rams winning by fourteen last month in
December at Seattle. So LA is definitely a live dog
in this game. And let's not forget there was only
twenty points in the first half of that seventy five
point game, and the first half was under in both
games so far this season, and we often see teams
come out conservative. Marco mentioned that he doesn't think the
Seahawks are going to ask Sam Darnold to do too much,
and I agree. He had what four interceptions in the
game in La. He had one or two the other
last month as well at home. I think it was
either five or six interceptions in the two games. So
if it is a conservative start, that first half under
might be the way to play it instead of the
full game. Because we're still getting twenty two and a
half twenty three. There's really not any difference. Twenty one
is the key number. So now that that line's dropped
to forty six forty five and a half, maybe look
at first half under twenty three, the first quarter maybe under,
but there's not a lot of value there.
Speaker 2: That's it.
Speaker 5: Nine and a half. Would have really liked it under ten.
But yeah, the contrarian call in the first game is Denver.
The controlling call in the second game is the under
with Seattle, La. If you want to be on the
sharp side and against the public, that's how you're playing
the two games today.
Speaker 1: Steve Merrill, you're the absolute best. And I see that
your video is crushing it right now on the wager
Talk YouTube page.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 5: So yesterday I did I premiered my college basketball Top
twenty five aerial and it got around seven thousand views,
and I was disappointed. I'm thinking to myself, Man, you
got to wake up the NFL Faded the Public.
Speaker 1: You have, Merilyn all of my titles on YouTube, and
I take off because.
Speaker 5: Wow, it was funny to me. I mean, the head's
getting too big aero because I was thinking I used
to not even get seven thousand views on my Fade
the Public video and now I'm like disappointed. It's a
college basketball video which hadn't been out all year. That's
still really good for a Saturday But I do want
to remind people I'm doing that Saturday college hoops video
just like I did for college football as the hoops,
you know, talking about football is almost over. I know
it's sad, but hey, we got a ton of basketball
every day, and we got baseball. I know you're excited
about baseball right around the corner. That's the bread and buttersports, right.
Have fun with these two and a f L games today,
But if you're serious about making money, you want to
be playing basketball and baseball this spring and summer. And
we've got some special offers at water talk dot com
and I will have a ton of free play videos
or basketball each and every day. So click subscribe, click
the bell for instant alert. You'll never miss out here
on Wayter Talk TV.
Speaker 1: What are you promoting today?
Speaker 5: I do have a strong NFL best bet My top
NFL client best bet is available. As I mentioned earlier,
nobody's won more NFL profit over the past year plus
in the NFL. I'm also number one in the NBA
the last two months on best bet profit NBA is
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All that's available, no bonus codes, need it, and don't forget.
Also a free play every day on my page. The
last cut just a bit outside goes up free on
my page, So check out the free play, check out
the best bets Steve merrillwater talk dot com and get
there quicker WT dot buzz slash sm Steve.
Speaker 1: You are the absolute best. Can't wait to talk to
you again later this week and talk about the super Bowl,
and of course we'll talk some basketball wager talk last
call here with Steve Merrill. You are the greatest. Good
luck today, I will see you soon.
Speaker 5: Thanks zerol.
Speaker 2: Great seeing you.
Speaker 1: Just a few more props. I've got the prop Queen
Guide by the way, on the prep queen dot com.
When you click newsletter, you could subscribe at the prop
Queen dot com and get the prop Queen Guide, which
gives you every offensive player prop that has a prop edge.
Some of the edges might be gone, some are still available,
but you can check it out at the prop queen
dot com get all of the prop edges of today.
A prop that I haven't mentioned yet to anybody, Ajbarnard,
the tight end vers Seattle. Look at his under on
receiving yards. It's gone down from twenty nine and a
half to twenty seven and a half. This was in
the Prop Queen Guide which went out Thursday, and I
said the under twenty nine and a half has value
because he's averaging even though he's done well. It was
like a fishy line because he had seventy and forty
nine receiving yards against the Rams this year, So why
was this number twenty nine and a half. Well, the
Rams have allowed the eighth least receiving yards per game
to tight ends, and sixty percent of tight ends in
the last ten games, or sorry, seventy one percent of
tight ends in the last ten games have gone under
their receiving yard prop. So definitely take a look at Ajbarner.
Anything else you need can either check out at the
prop Queen dot Com with the betting guide, or you
could look on the YouTube page at the Prop Queen.
I'm going to be posting some props right now, right
after this, so I'm going to post some props there
to the YouTube page at the Prop Queen media page
on the channel. But you got all the props, Roniani,
you got a bunch of props from me. I hope
we gave you some winners today here on the show.
Good Luck to all of your bets. We will not
have a last call on Sunday next week, but we
will of course have one for the super Bowl. I
will see you all then. Good Luck today