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Speaker 3: Well for real state.

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Speaker 1: It is because the biggest component of the consumer Price

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index is housing, because for most families, housing is their

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biggest household expenditure by far. So historically, rents and home

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prices track along with inflation. They do lag a little bit,

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but you know over time they will always catch up.

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Speaker 2: You are listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where

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you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else

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00:00:25,559 --> 00:00:29,120
to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial

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00:00:29,239 --> 00:00:34,320
Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork

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dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 3: And welcome. You are listening to and watching the Financial

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Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Let's back from a

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month of play in Europe and in Asia, but not

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really play. I got to admit I worked way more

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than I thought I was going to, probably way more

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than if I was at home, but still managed to

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have a great time, eat great food, see amazing sites.

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And if you haven't traveled, I suggest you do. You know,

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if you use my techniques, you won't even pay very much.

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Free business class flights to Spain, free business class flights

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to Thaie Land and you know, basically hotels. Oftentimes I

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was paying what you pay for breakfast at one. So hey,

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we got a checklist for that. If you want it,

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write me an email. Just put to travel for free

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in the subject and it's kl at carrie lets dot com.

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Soln Welsh is with us now, Lan real estate been

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in it for quite some time, You've got your take

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on it. We talked to a lot of real estate

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people here, and the interesting thing is, as different as

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your approach might be, all of you are kind of

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on the same wavelength, the same path. I don't know

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if that's because it takes a certain kind of personality

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to do real estate, or if after you've been in

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in a while you kind of wind up doing the

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same things. What's your thoughts, Slot.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit of both. To work

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in commercial real estate, you need to have a good

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financial orientation and a real love just for the product.

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So I think that kind of takes the audience in

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the windows it down. And then with a small group

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that are in it, you know, they end up talking

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to each other quite a bit, so probably reinforces a

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lot of the patterns.

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Speaker 3: Right, So Okay, real estate investing. There's no other area

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of investing that I've found where there's as many winners

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as there are in real estate. Whereas you go into crypto, yeah,

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like you could be a major winner, but there are

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a lot of losers there. You go into the market,

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and the market's the market. You know, it's all timing,

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which nobody knows how to do. But real estate doesn't

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work that way, does no.

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Speaker 1: I think most people approach real estate with a multiple

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year horizon with their investment idea versus crypto and stock.

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Sometimes people have a very short term focus, and the

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shorter of the time horizon, the more important your timing becomes.

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If you're in real estate for a long time, it's

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really hard to lose money.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, if you can stick out the down periods, which

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are infrequent but crash every seventeen years, right, yeah, something

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like that. So so, like you know, I seen the

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There was a guy who wrote a book called The

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Real Estate Investing Cycle. Okay, but I can't remember his name,

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but I did get the book. It was very difficult

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to get it because it was out of print. But

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it's written like forty years ago, and it's always the

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same like I'm here in Florida. We got international money,

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then we have a crash, everyone runs for the doors,

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and then it's the local guys, you know, the local

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speculators that start to perceive value, and then it gets

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built up and you start getting institutional and then when

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the party's almost over, guess what you get the international

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crowd in again. Yep? Is that your experience?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's definitely I think what the cycle looks like

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if you're an internationally driven market. So I live in Colorado,

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so some of our ski resort towns are attractive to

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international buyers, and it's a very similar to what you described.

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Speaker 3: So what's the worst deal you ever made in real

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estate law? Oh?

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Speaker 1: Gosh, we bought an office building in Houston about six

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months before COVID.

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Speaker 3: That we were going to renovate and we are timing there.

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What's a total disaster.

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Speaker 1: So now that was actually my first fund that I

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did with a lot of other limited partners. So we

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had one really great investment in that fund and one

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really terrible one they averaged out fortunately.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, the average of life and death is being

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a zombie, right right? All right? So now where this

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cycle is getting old because look two thousand and eight,

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seventeen years ago. Is this time really different or are

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we going to have a crash.

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Speaker 1: At some point, you know, on the real estate side.

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I don't anticipate we'll have a crash on the residential side.

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And the reason is that home prices have gone up

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so much, so fast, that there is a lot of equity,

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a record.

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Speaker 3: Amount of equity.

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Speaker 1: If you take a look at two thousand and seven,

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In two thousand and eight, incomposite, the value of all

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the mortgages in America work greater than the value of

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all the real estate home all the homes in America,

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So coluctively, we're all under water by a little bit.

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This time it's the other way around, with a huge

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amount of equity. Interestingly enough, about thirty eight percent of

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the homes in America don't even have a mortgage at all.

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Speaker 3: That is interesting, and so a lot of cash buyers.

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Is inflation dead? Is doge going to kill? Inflation? Is?

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Obviously any asset holder's greatest friend within reason is inflation.

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Speaker 1: Right Well, for real state it is because the biggest

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component of the consumer price index is housing. Because for

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most families, housing is their biggest household expenditure by far.

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So historically rents and home prices track along with inflation.

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They do lag a little bit, but you know, over

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time they will always catch up.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so let's let's talk about inflation. Will Rogers once said,

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invest in inflation. It's the only thing going up. And

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certainly in the past seventeen years, the real economy has

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been lagging, but real estate i e. Inflation has been

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going up.

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Speaker 1: It has, So what will happen next to the inflation

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is probably really contingent on how fast we can wrap

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up the tariff negotiations.

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Speaker 3: We're going through right now.

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Speaker 1: So hopefully that'll come to a favorable conclusion with a

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lot of the countries and we'll see things died out

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a little.

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Speaker 3: That you know what. I am glad you raised that

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point because I have actually written a little scream about it,

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and I just have to find it here if you'll

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be patient with me. Sure, let's see. Uh yeah, I

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didn't post it yet in the sub stack, unfortunately, but

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let me see if I can find it. I know

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it's here. Well, I'll just tell you the premise of

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it here. It's like all these countries want to make

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trade deals with the United States. Right. Interesting thing is

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that it's not like it used to be. Basically, trade

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deals would take you know, forever, because they were a

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giant grift because you had all these diplomats. They get

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to they get to stay in five star resorts. They're

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having you know, chateau truth with all their meals, they're

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having it with breakfast. I mean, it's a grift on

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the taxpayer's dime. And they get the incentive is not

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to make a deal when you got all these grifters.

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And that's not just the United States, this is the

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whole world here a lot, you know. But now with AI.

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And believe me, if there's one thing the current admind

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knows how to do is use AI probably better than anyone.

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You just feed in a trade deal, you tell it

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to find and you feed it into a model that

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specializes in international law, shipping, logistics and tariffs and everything else.

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You feed the current agreement in there and say show

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me every way we're getting ripped off now, and then

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five minutes later it tells you every where you're getting

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ripped off, and then another five minutes later, it's got

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your completed agreement here for your signature. You know, prime

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Minister u Arnie or whomever right and take it or

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leave it. And so it's not going to take months

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or even years to do these things. This is the

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mindset of the media, the legacy media, and really it's

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a narrative that just isn't true.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll be interesting to see if we can get

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through this a lot more rapidly because of the tools

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like you mentioned, should really enable these people to think

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through the process a lot faster, I certainly hope. So

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the uncerturinity is not helping out the markets a whole

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lot at the moment.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it trust me on this. It's going to happen,

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you know. The uh it's just nobody quite gets it.

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But but we get it right, We definitely get it here.

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So all right, so the tariff thing, once that goes away,

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what's going to happen.

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Speaker 1: Well, we had seen a pretty consistent trend with the

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consumer price index declining on a very gentle slope over

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the last twelve eighteen months.

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Speaker 3: I'm not an.

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Speaker 1: Inflation next for by any means, but just from what

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I read in the Wall Street Journal every day, So

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hopefully this will be a blip and we'll get back

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on track with the things declining. One of the components

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of the CPI Consumer Price Index that have been propping

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it up was home prices. But we're seeing that the

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rate of home price appreciation is slowing down. Rent growth

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has slowing down over last year, so that'll certainly be

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an assist to the inflation rate coming down as well.

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Speaker 3: All right, So you a buyer a seller? Oh, we're

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a buyer.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of really great opportunities out there in

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the market right now.

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Speaker 3: All right. I like it and I tend to agree

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with you, believe it or not. And all right, how

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do we find you? How do we connect with you? One?

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Speaker 1: You can go to Irtoncapital dot com. I R O

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N t o N Capital dot com And actually we've

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got a book on passive investing we can make free

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for your audience. So yeah, Iretoncapital dot com forward slash

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Financial Survival I believe.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So that should be really easy to remember.

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Speaker 3: All right, and that link will definitely be in the

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show notes this interview on Financeial Survival Network dot com.

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So make sure you click that link so Lon knows

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we're sending people to them and get the book. And

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if you have any questions for lon myself, shoot me

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an email klatcarrielts dot com. Well you're at at sign

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up for our free newsletter. We got eighty thousand subscribers

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now more on the way. Really appreciate you coming on

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with us a lot. And hey, I guess we're going

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to find out who's right and who's wrong over the

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next three to six months.

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Speaker 1: Right, I think we'll know a lot more in three months.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Lets's Financial Survival Network, your

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solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

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Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than

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00:11:47,759 --> 00:11:48,039
ever