WEBVTT 1 00:00:08.919 --> 00:00:11.640 Hello, and welcome to the Texas Tribune trip cast for 2 00:00:11.880 --> 00:00:15.839 Tuesday May twelfth, twenty twenty six. My name is Matthew Watkins, 3 00:00:15.919 --> 00:00:19.839 editor in chief of the Texas Tribune, joined as usual 4 00:00:20.199 --> 00:00:23.399 by Law and politics reporter Eleanor clipping Off. Hello, Eleanor. 5 00:00:23.480 --> 00:00:25.719 Hello. Feel like it's been a while since we've been 6 00:00:25.760 --> 00:00:26.640 together for one of these. 7 00:00:26.719 --> 00:00:28.679 It has been a while, it has been a while. 8 00:00:30.879 --> 00:00:33.359 I don't know. People probably can't see this in the video, 9 00:00:33.759 --> 00:00:39.560 but I'm sweating right now. I'm living a as I 10 00:00:39.600 --> 00:00:43.679 often do an episode of Seinfeld where I exercise in 11 00:00:43.679 --> 00:00:46.399 the gym downstairs in our office, and I have not 12 00:00:46.439 --> 00:00:48.880 stopped sweating, and it's that's kind of killing me. 13 00:00:48.960 --> 00:00:52.600 So yeah, yeah, about that time of the year, It's true. 14 00:00:52.479 --> 00:00:54.560 Yeah, that's time of the year to get back to 15 00:00:54.600 --> 00:00:55.039 the gym. 16 00:00:55.280 --> 00:00:58.119 That's right, Okay, I'm not going to dig into that. 17 00:00:58.960 --> 00:01:00.640 I was talking about how hot it's getting. 18 00:01:00.399 --> 00:01:03.479 It but summer bodies, guys. 19 00:01:03.240 --> 00:01:04.840 I could see how that'd be taken as a dig. 20 00:01:07.480 --> 00:01:12.079 That other voice you hear is politics editor Jasper Share. Hello, Jasper, Hello, 21 00:01:12.560 --> 00:01:16.799 having me the newly wedded Jasper Sharer. Congratulations, Thank you. 22 00:01:17.000 --> 00:01:20.560 Yeah, it's an honor to make my first podcast appearance 23 00:01:20.640 --> 00:01:23.519 after the wedding on none other than the Trip Cast. 24 00:01:23.680 --> 00:01:24.840 That's right, it's a married. 25 00:01:25.040 --> 00:01:27.280 They say, you're not really married until you come on 26 00:01:27.319 --> 00:01:28.560 the Trip Cast and talk about it. 27 00:01:28.599 --> 00:01:30.280 They do, say, I've heard that many time. 28 00:01:30.599 --> 00:01:33.239 Yeah, yeah, well you I mean, for those who don't 29 00:01:33.239 --> 00:01:37.599 know you married. Texas Tribune reporter Taylor Goldenstein. 30 00:01:38.040 --> 00:01:40.000 Uh, indeed, did you ask. 31 00:01:39.879 --> 00:01:42.560 Matthew for his blessing before you? I guess you didn't 32 00:01:42.560 --> 00:01:43.560 work here when you proposed. 33 00:01:44.400 --> 00:01:47.400 Yeah, no, I absolutely would have if we'd both been 34 00:01:47.439 --> 00:01:50.519 working here, but uh, you know, the all this just 35 00:01:50.560 --> 00:01:52.079 came together beforehand. 36 00:01:52.159 --> 00:01:54.000 So but hopefully he approves. 37 00:01:54.239 --> 00:01:55.359 Would you have given them. 38 00:01:55.400 --> 00:01:58.319 I think so, you know, I would have maybe said, like, 39 00:01:58.400 --> 00:02:01.640 let's stagger the honeymoon. Yeah, but actually I have a 40 00:02:01.640 --> 00:02:04.480 funny story about this. Y'all are taking like a delayed honeymoon, 41 00:02:04.519 --> 00:02:08.120 is that right? But the Tribune we have like a 42 00:02:08.319 --> 00:02:11.800 Google staffing calendar where we keep track of, you know, 43 00:02:11.960 --> 00:02:14.199 like journalists taking time off so we can plan the 44 00:02:14.199 --> 00:02:16.919 news and everything. And I remember, like right around y'all's wedding, 45 00:02:17.280 --> 00:02:20.120 like y'all both had like some days before the weekend 46 00:02:20.439 --> 00:02:23.240 and then after the weekend, I see that Taylor has 47 00:02:23.319 --> 00:02:27.680 two days off and Jasper only has one, and I'm 48 00:02:27.680 --> 00:02:30.120 looking at this and I'm like, huh, this is gonna 49 00:02:30.159 --> 00:02:34.000 be interesting to watch. And behold, on Monday, the message 50 00:02:34.039 --> 00:02:36.479 comes in Jasper needs to take one last day off. 51 00:02:36.599 --> 00:02:40.759 Yeah. I was just you know, giving you guys a headfake, yeah, 52 00:02:41.159 --> 00:02:41.599 or a misch. 53 00:02:41.719 --> 00:02:43.280 I feel like you also did this on the front end, 54 00:02:43.319 --> 00:02:46.840 where Rebecca Allen, our managing editor who manages you and Taylor, 55 00:02:47.000 --> 00:02:50.120 was like, Jasper, you have asked for two days off. 56 00:02:50.000 --> 00:02:52.120 The week of the wedding, and Taylor's asked for a week? 57 00:02:52.240 --> 00:02:54.199 Shall we shall we discuss. 58 00:02:54.639 --> 00:02:56.599 Marriage, but don't do that. 59 00:02:56.639 --> 00:02:59.360 We're already yeah, starting off on the right foot. Yeah yeah, 60 00:03:00.080 --> 00:03:02.319 but Taylor, Taylor, you know, got her way. I ended 61 00:03:02.400 --> 00:03:04.039 up taking more days. 62 00:03:04.120 --> 00:03:07.360 So, you know, Taylor very anti work, never never works 63 00:03:07.360 --> 00:03:07.560 a day. 64 00:03:07.599 --> 00:03:08.280 I've always said this. 65 00:03:08.520 --> 00:03:12.319 Yeah, well, speaking of marriage drama, let's talk about the 66 00:03:12.439 --> 00:03:18.879 US smooth. We can cut that out. No, we are 67 00:03:19.240 --> 00:03:22.879 recording this less than a week until early voting starts 68 00:03:22.960 --> 00:03:25.960 in the primary runoffs this May, and there is a 69 00:03:26.000 --> 00:03:29.280 lot of talk about about where things sit and where 70 00:03:29.319 --> 00:03:33.199 we're going. Of course, the US Senate primary being the 71 00:03:33.240 --> 00:03:36.000 big one, but a bunch of other races as well. 72 00:03:36.080 --> 00:03:38.719 So that is why we have brought Jasper on to 73 00:03:38.840 --> 00:03:43.479 talk and so let's launch into that US Senate race. 74 00:03:45.039 --> 00:03:47.199 We I think the last time we talked about this 75 00:03:47.280 --> 00:03:49.560 on the trip cast, we were all talking about, you know, 76 00:03:49.599 --> 00:03:53.400 when's that Donald Trump endorsement coming? And here we are 77 00:03:53.759 --> 00:03:56.159 less than a week out from early voting and we 78 00:03:56.319 --> 00:04:00.360 still have not seen that endorsement. Jasper, what's going on there? 79 00:04:00.960 --> 00:04:04.479 Well, I, you know, I think what what happened was Trump. 80 00:04:06.080 --> 00:04:09.759 You know, he of course famously teased his impending endorsement 81 00:04:10.520 --> 00:04:14.000 right after the March third primary. You know, it seemed 82 00:04:14.039 --> 00:04:16.480 like that was going to be forthcoming. I think he 83 00:04:16.519 --> 00:04:18.600 used the word soon, and then he was going to 84 00:04:18.680 --> 00:04:22.000 be calling on whoever he didn't endorse to to drop out. 85 00:04:23.000 --> 00:04:23.959 Seems like, you. 86 00:04:23.920 --> 00:04:29.319 Know, the the folks who are supporting Paxton in the 87 00:04:29.399 --> 00:04:31.800 race kind of got got the sense that Trump was 88 00:04:31.800 --> 00:04:35.480 going to endorse Cornyn and sort of made made it 89 00:04:35.040 --> 00:04:39.439 a trial balloon in the sense that they leaked out 90 00:04:39.519 --> 00:04:42.839 the you know this this impending endorsement. It ginned up 91 00:04:42.839 --> 00:04:47.519 this you know, backlash from folks in in kind of 92 00:04:47.560 --> 00:04:50.360 the the maga Bass, just like rank and file people 93 00:04:50.439 --> 00:04:53.079 on on Twitter all the way up to you know, 94 00:04:53.120 --> 00:04:54.680 I think there were some folks who were in the 95 00:04:54.680 --> 00:04:57.879 President's ear, some of Paxton's allies, just saying, look, this 96 00:04:57.879 --> 00:05:00.680 would be a mistake. So whatever the case, you know, 97 00:05:00.720 --> 00:05:04.800 Trump has decided to once again. You know, this was 98 00:05:04.800 --> 00:05:07.199 not the first time that he's teased the possibility of 99 00:05:07.199 --> 00:05:10.639 an endorsement. So here we are early voting, less than 100 00:05:10.639 --> 00:05:13.639 a week away. Seems like we're not getting an endorsement, 101 00:05:13.680 --> 00:05:15.920 although you know, you never know. I was making the 102 00:05:15.920 --> 00:05:20.120 point that back in twenty eighteen, Beyonce endorsed Better Work 103 00:05:20.240 --> 00:05:23.040 with like three hours to go on election day. So 104 00:05:23.600 --> 00:05:25.800 that's kind of our our benchmark, I guess for the 105 00:05:26.959 --> 00:05:29.480 But you know, now it's just the two candidates are, 106 00:05:30.519 --> 00:05:33.680 you know, having to make their case by themselves without 107 00:05:34.600 --> 00:05:38.160 this you know, other big factor that we thought was 108 00:05:38.199 --> 00:05:39.680 going to be the decider from the start. 109 00:05:39.680 --> 00:05:41.160 It just never materialized. 110 00:05:41.600 --> 00:05:42.600 I mean, we've talked about this. 111 00:05:42.639 --> 00:05:44.439 I think back when we first talked about this, which 112 00:05:44.480 --> 00:05:47.480 is like, is possible Trump is not paying that much 113 00:05:47.519 --> 00:05:51.279 attention to the early voting dot deadline all these timelines. 114 00:05:52.079 --> 00:05:53.839 I was going to note, like, not only did he 115 00:05:53.879 --> 00:05:55.240 say he was going to endorse. He said the other 116 00:05:55.279 --> 00:05:57.480 person should drop out, which sounded so ludicrous, but this 117 00:05:57.519 --> 00:06:01.879 actually happened in Kentucky. He endorsed, you know, Andy Barr 118 00:06:01.920 --> 00:06:04.759 for that Senate seat and offered the other guy a 119 00:06:04.800 --> 00:06:07.959 seat in his administration ambassadorship. And the guy dropped out. 120 00:06:07.959 --> 00:06:09.879 And there's still Daniel Cameron still in the race. But 121 00:06:09.959 --> 00:06:12.319 like President Trump does have the ability to sort of 122 00:06:12.360 --> 00:06:16.279 do this and has done this sort of puppeteering, and 123 00:06:16.319 --> 00:06:20.600 in this case he has chosen to not for reasons 124 00:06:20.600 --> 00:06:21.079 you mentioned. 125 00:06:21.199 --> 00:06:24.079 Yeah, it does seem less likely at this point that 126 00:06:24.160 --> 00:06:28.240 someone would drop out. His quote this week earlier this 127 00:06:28.279 --> 00:06:31.560 week that he'll make a decision maybe relatively soon on 128 00:06:31.600 --> 00:06:36.079 the race. I don't know. I don't know. He did 129 00:06:36.160 --> 00:06:39.279 endorse some people in the primary, like deep in the 130 00:06:39.319 --> 00:06:40.240 early voting. 131 00:06:40.000 --> 00:06:44.519 Period, right, yeah, so, and like I guess, you know, again, 132 00:06:44.920 --> 00:06:47.319 he I'm sure has people in both ears about Corn 133 00:06:47.319 --> 00:06:49.920 and impacts and Corn and Paxton. No one is talking 134 00:06:50.000 --> 00:06:52.120 about what if he pulls out at the last minute, 135 00:06:52.920 --> 00:06:55.279 waits and does the general election Tallarico nod. 136 00:06:56.199 --> 00:06:58.879 He's talking about it. If not, Yeah, they're winding up 137 00:06:58.879 --> 00:06:59.600 on the gas tax. 138 00:06:59.720 --> 00:07:02.519 Maybe Yeah, that's right. Maybe Mom, Donnie's in his ear, 139 00:07:02.600 --> 00:07:04.160 you know this, Yeah, I could see it. Well. 140 00:07:04.199 --> 00:07:06.680 I think, you know, on a somewhat serious note here, 141 00:07:06.720 --> 00:07:09.480 like I think that one of the you know, big 142 00:07:10.519 --> 00:07:12.920 draws for Trump in terms of you know, what might 143 00:07:12.959 --> 00:07:16.160 have prompted him to make an endorsement was you know, 144 00:07:16.319 --> 00:07:19.920 just clearly, you know, he seemed to be thinking about 145 00:07:20.480 --> 00:07:23.079 holding the seat for Republicans in November. You know, it's 146 00:07:23.199 --> 00:07:26.199 not necessarily that he when he was leaning towards Cornyn, 147 00:07:26.319 --> 00:07:29.639 that he likes Cornyn so much more than Paxton that 148 00:07:29.839 --> 00:07:32.600 you know, that was going to prompt an endorsement. It 149 00:07:32.639 --> 00:07:35.560 was more, you know, this idea that that Cornyan and 150 00:07:35.600 --> 00:07:37.680 his allies have been advancing from the start, that he's 151 00:07:37.720 --> 00:07:40.759 the more electable candidate, he would be a safer pick 152 00:07:40.759 --> 00:07:44.240 in the general election. You know, Paxton has some you know, 153 00:07:44.680 --> 00:07:48.800 fundraising issues that could require rescuing from from you know, 154 00:07:49.319 --> 00:07:52.680 Republican groups outside the state. So, you know, and I 155 00:07:52.759 --> 00:07:56.639 think the evidence of you know, Cornyn being a stronger 156 00:07:56.879 --> 00:08:00.319 general election candidate has you know, kind of favored a 157 00:08:00.360 --> 00:08:03.160 little bit. There have been polls that you know, I 158 00:08:03.480 --> 00:08:06.120 think and we haven't seen a ton of polling in 159 00:08:05.560 --> 00:08:09.439 the runoff, but just kind of throughout, you know, throughout 160 00:08:09.519 --> 00:08:14.120 the race, there has not been a super clear picture 161 00:08:14.240 --> 00:08:19.000 of you know, Cornyn significantly outperforming Paxton in the general. 162 00:08:19.079 --> 00:08:21.680 So I think that could also be contributing to some 163 00:08:21.720 --> 00:08:25.759 of Trump's you know, reluctance. You know, there's there's no 164 00:08:25.879 --> 00:08:28.639 clear benefit maybe in his eye, to supporting Cornying. 165 00:08:28.879 --> 00:08:31.399 Yeah, I mean, we now get to the point of 166 00:08:31.439 --> 00:08:34.759 the podcast where I just read off poll numbers everyone's 167 00:08:34.759 --> 00:08:38.159 favorite part. A you gov poll taken in the field 168 00:08:38.200 --> 00:08:41.879 in mid April showed a tall Ico seven point lead 169 00:08:42.200 --> 00:08:45.399 and a over Cornyn, and the Tallerico eight point lead 170 00:08:45.480 --> 00:08:48.879 over Packson. That's with a high number of undecided voters. 171 00:08:49.159 --> 00:08:52.840 A sling Shot Strategies pull showing a tall Rico lead 172 00:08:53.080 --> 00:08:55.720 five point lead over Packson and a three point lead 173 00:08:56.039 --> 00:08:59.759 over Cornyn. So you know there is and then and 174 00:08:59.759 --> 00:09:03.919 then another one Impact research showing tall Rico with a 175 00:09:03.960 --> 00:09:06.639 two point lead over Cornyn and a one point lead 176 00:09:06.799 --> 00:09:09.519 over Paxson. So a little bit mixed signals. I think 177 00:09:09.799 --> 00:09:12.799 it's hard to read too much into may poles, particularly 178 00:09:12.879 --> 00:09:15.080 when you don't know who one of the candidates are. 179 00:09:15.200 --> 00:09:17.120 But at the very least, I think not a lot 180 00:09:17.120 --> 00:09:19.960 of evidence pointing to like a massive gap. I think 181 00:09:20.000 --> 00:09:23.320 the other question, which I will hint to already saying 182 00:09:23.360 --> 00:09:26.000 that I'm a bit skeptical too, is the fundraising question. 183 00:09:26.320 --> 00:09:30.519 Cornin has clearly been a more successful fundraiser during the 184 00:09:30.679 --> 00:09:35.080 runoff and during the primary, and that is leading some 185 00:09:35.360 --> 00:09:37.679 to say that this could be a big problem in 186 00:09:37.720 --> 00:09:41.279 the general election if Paxon is having trouble fundraising given 187 00:09:41.320 --> 00:09:45.000 the fact that taller Ico is raising massive amounts of money. 188 00:09:45.240 --> 00:09:48.039 What's your take on that angle. 189 00:09:48.200 --> 00:09:50.600 You know, I mean, I think the money will always 190 00:09:51.120 --> 00:09:54.799 you know, if Paxton captures the nomination, the money will 191 00:09:55.000 --> 00:09:57.679 materialize in some way, shape or form. 192 00:09:57.759 --> 00:09:58.360 You know, I think it. 193 00:09:59.679 --> 00:10:02.039 I think, you know, the worst case scenario for Republicans 194 00:10:02.039 --> 00:10:06.120 would be that, you know, Paxton continues to have trouble, 195 00:10:06.639 --> 00:10:09.480 you know, fundraising on his own. He needs to kind 196 00:10:09.480 --> 00:10:13.279 of call in the cavalry, the sort of senate GOP leadership, 197 00:10:14.519 --> 00:10:18.559 you know, national packs might have to you know, potentially 198 00:10:18.600 --> 00:10:22.639 divert money away from states like Maine, Alaska that they'd 199 00:10:22.759 --> 00:10:26.159 rather be be spending it on. But you know, there's 200 00:10:26.200 --> 00:10:29.200 also the possibility that some of the Texas based donors 201 00:10:29.240 --> 00:10:33.639 who've been supporting Cornyn could you know, pivot and you know, 202 00:10:34.120 --> 00:10:37.399 kind of plug their nose and you know, give to 203 00:10:37.399 --> 00:10:40.519 to Paxton because he's just you know, they prefer him 204 00:10:40.559 --> 00:10:42.840 over over tall Rico. I think, you know, there are 205 00:10:42.840 --> 00:10:45.279 also a bunch of donors who have been sitting out 206 00:10:45.399 --> 00:10:48.440 kind of sitting on you know, their their money, just 207 00:10:48.519 --> 00:10:51.360 waiting for you know, they think they'll get more bang 208 00:10:51.399 --> 00:10:54.600 for their buck spending in the general. So, you know, 209 00:10:54.639 --> 00:10:57.600 I think it's clearly Corn's a safer bet to have 210 00:10:57.639 --> 00:11:00.519 the money needed to counter the you know, Tall Rico 211 00:11:00.600 --> 00:11:06.320 fundraising juggernaut. But I think it's you know, no sure 212 00:11:06.360 --> 00:11:10.120 thing that Paxton's going to be you know, a huge 213 00:11:10.159 --> 00:11:11.200 problem on that front. 214 00:11:11.720 --> 00:11:14.840 Yeah, it just seems like I have a hard time 215 00:11:14.879 --> 00:11:19.799 seeing a scenario where you know, this is a competitive race. 216 00:11:20.679 --> 00:11:23.559 People are concerned about Texas playing a role and flipping 217 00:11:23.600 --> 00:11:25.679 the Senate to the Democrats, and there's not just the 218 00:11:25.720 --> 00:11:29.879 cavalry coming. Maybe they're not donating directly to Paxton's campaign, 219 00:11:29.919 --> 00:11:31.759 but I think they would love to spend a ton 220 00:11:31.799 --> 00:11:36.000 of money bashing Tallarico, this guy who you know, would 221 00:11:36.039 --> 00:11:38.120 be trying to flip Texas for the first time in 222 00:11:38.240 --> 00:11:41.840 a generation who people are already sort of like talking 223 00:11:41.879 --> 00:11:44.159 about I would say kind of prematurely, but talking about 224 00:11:44.200 --> 00:11:47.360 him as like a potential VP candidate in twenty twenty eight. 225 00:11:47.399 --> 00:11:50.360 I mean, why would you not want to like come 226 00:11:50.399 --> 00:11:52.240 in there and like knock that guy off his perch. 227 00:11:52.279 --> 00:11:54.279 It might not have anything to do with Paxton. And 228 00:11:54.840 --> 00:11:57.919 you know, there's there's a history of donors in the 229 00:11:58.000 --> 00:12:01.519 Republican Party being willing to sort of set aside maybe 230 00:12:01.559 --> 00:12:04.519 their concerns about the personal lives or the you know, 231 00:12:04.559 --> 00:12:07.799 even legal troubles of a candidate and for the sake 232 00:12:07.840 --> 00:12:13.080 of maintaining power, particularly you know, to to have control 233 00:12:13.120 --> 00:12:15.960 of Supreme Court seats going forward. So I don't know, 234 00:12:16.000 --> 00:12:17.720 I just view that with a little bit of skepticism. 235 00:12:17.840 --> 00:12:20.480 And while we're talking about you know, premature stuff, I mean, 236 00:12:20.519 --> 00:12:25.480 even thinking ahead to the importance of Texas on the 237 00:12:25.480 --> 00:12:28.200 the national map, looking ahead to the twenty thirty census, 238 00:12:28.240 --> 00:12:31.600 there's you know, all the the you know, we've been 239 00:12:31.600 --> 00:12:35.320 thinking about redistricting a lot over here, and you know, 240 00:12:35.360 --> 00:12:38.879 I've kind of seen these projections that that showed Texas 241 00:12:38.919 --> 00:12:41.759 is going to pick up probably more congressional seats after 242 00:12:41.799 --> 00:12:45.159 the next census, and you know, it probably will be 243 00:12:45.200 --> 00:12:47.840 a tough It will only make things tougher for Democrats 244 00:12:47.919 --> 00:12:51.360 nationally with you know, Texas and some of the other 245 00:12:51.440 --> 00:12:55.759 red states like Florida probably gaining you know, apportionment, and 246 00:12:55.799 --> 00:12:59.399 so there's going to be a lot of you know, 247 00:12:59.480 --> 00:13:04.799 motivation for Republicans to establish you know, that Texas is 248 00:13:04.840 --> 00:13:07.919 more like the Trump plus fourteen state that we saw 249 00:13:08.279 --> 00:13:11.080 two years ago and not something that you know is 250 00:13:11.559 --> 00:13:14.000 a jump ball or you know, a purple state heading 251 00:13:14.000 --> 00:13:17.720 into this you know critical, you know, this outsized role, 252 00:13:17.720 --> 00:13:20.399 it's going to play into the twenty thirties decades. So 253 00:13:20.960 --> 00:13:23.679 I know, just while we're talking, prematurely wanted to throw 254 00:13:23.720 --> 00:13:24.200 that out there. 255 00:13:24.399 --> 00:13:25.039 Yeah. 256 00:13:25.159 --> 00:13:27.399 Yeah, I think the like fundraising thing, I mean, there's 257 00:13:27.399 --> 00:13:29.679 been reported in several outlets and we've reported, we've heard 258 00:13:29.679 --> 00:13:31.799 it from people. But you know, there's a lot of 259 00:13:31.879 --> 00:13:34.679 I think Paxton donors who are like, well, you know, 260 00:13:34.919 --> 00:13:35.639 we'll wait and see. 261 00:13:36.000 --> 00:13:37.600 Like I think there are people who don't feel as. 262 00:13:37.519 --> 00:13:40.559 Strongly as Ken Paxton does that John Cornyn would be 263 00:13:40.559 --> 00:13:42.759 such a terrible outcome that they're like, all right, if 264 00:13:42.799 --> 00:13:45.120 Paxton is in it, then we'll throw in the money. 265 00:13:45.120 --> 00:13:47.080 We're not gonna let Tallarico win. 266 00:13:47.720 --> 00:13:50.879 Right right, Okay, So tell us desper a little bit 267 00:13:50.919 --> 00:13:53.600 about just like what's happening in this campaign? Are the 268 00:13:54.000 --> 00:13:57.039 what are the candidates doing? See right now? How is 269 00:13:57.159 --> 00:14:00.519 this kind of shaping up from an issue standpoint? 270 00:14:00.799 --> 00:14:03.519 Yeah, I mean, I think one of the big turns 271 00:14:03.559 --> 00:14:06.879 that we've seen in the runoff as opposed to the 272 00:14:07.200 --> 00:14:10.360 first round is just the messaging has gotten a lot 273 00:14:10.399 --> 00:14:14.720 more negative. You know, you saw Cornyn you know, leading 274 00:14:14.799 --> 00:14:18.519 up to March third, focused a lot more and you know, 275 00:14:18.919 --> 00:14:21.440 I say, corn but it's really a lot of the 276 00:14:21.440 --> 00:14:24.279 the allied groups that have been spending tens of millions 277 00:14:24.320 --> 00:14:27.720 of dollars promoting him, and a lot of the messaging 278 00:14:27.960 --> 00:14:31.399 from his side in round one was about kind of 279 00:14:31.399 --> 00:14:35.600 reintroducing him to voters, promoting his his conservative credentials. I 280 00:14:35.600 --> 00:14:38.759 think there is maybe a little bit of image repairing 281 00:14:38.960 --> 00:14:42.960 going on, you know, kind of countering the notion that he's, 282 00:14:43.039 --> 00:14:47.080 you know, this this rhino anti Trump sellout. And so 283 00:14:47.679 --> 00:14:51.039 once they and you saw that, you know, work to 284 00:14:51.200 --> 00:14:55.039 a just based on the results of March third, Cornyn 285 00:14:55.120 --> 00:14:58.720 coming in with a you know, surprising if narrow lead, 286 00:14:58.960 --> 00:15:01.519 So you know, now it's it kind of stands to 287 00:15:01.600 --> 00:15:05.559 reason that the corn Inside is turning more towards driving 288 00:15:05.600 --> 00:15:10.120 up Paxton's negatives, going after him for just about everything 289 00:15:10.200 --> 00:15:14.919 that you know, you could think of, dredging up everything 290 00:15:14.960 --> 00:15:19.240 from his you know, alleged marriage and fidelities to you know, 291 00:15:20.240 --> 00:15:22.639 alleged shortcomings of his office. Like there have been some 292 00:15:22.720 --> 00:15:27.759 ads lately from the corn Inside accusing Paxson of you know, 293 00:15:27.799 --> 00:15:30.720 in his office, of taking it easy on people charged 294 00:15:30.759 --> 00:15:34.279 with sex crimes. So it's you know, no holds barred 295 00:15:34.320 --> 00:15:36.320 at this point. And I think, I mean same thing 296 00:15:36.360 --> 00:15:39.200 with with Paxton. I think that has been a little 297 00:15:39.200 --> 00:15:42.120 bit more of a steady you know, to the extent 298 00:15:42.159 --> 00:15:45.519 that Packs Inside has been running ads, they've they've continued 299 00:15:45.519 --> 00:15:50.000 to be really overmatched by the spending on on corn Inside, 300 00:15:50.000 --> 00:15:54.039 but you know they've continued to stay negative against Paxton. 301 00:15:54.080 --> 00:15:59.039 There was this this ad from the main pro Paxson 302 00:15:59.159 --> 00:16:02.919 super pack recently where they were you know, it sort 303 00:16:02.919 --> 00:16:05.600 of led with this this imagery from nineteen eighty four 304 00:16:05.720 --> 00:16:08.679 talking about it was a Reagan landslide er. You know, 305 00:16:08.840 --> 00:16:11.799 Prince was in vogue and oh yeah, that's when John 306 00:16:11.840 --> 00:16:14.600 Cornyn was first elected to office, and by the way, 307 00:16:14.639 --> 00:16:18.559 he's been you know, a rhino ever since. And so 308 00:16:18.600 --> 00:16:21.600 that just hits all the notes, and everyone's just kind 309 00:16:21.639 --> 00:16:25.360 of emptying the tank, trying to get all their attacks out, 310 00:16:25.679 --> 00:16:27.440 you know, before May twenty sixth. 311 00:16:28.879 --> 00:16:32.600 And of course everyone's favorite the Ken Dolls. Of course, 312 00:16:32.679 --> 00:16:36.320 how can I forget this website that John Cornyn's campaign 313 00:16:36.440 --> 00:16:41.240 I believe has has put up, you know, jumping on 314 00:16:42.240 --> 00:16:46.000 our attorney general's first name and piecing together a bunch 315 00:16:46.000 --> 00:16:50.679 of what seemed to be AI generated images of Ken dolls, 316 00:16:50.720 --> 00:16:54.960 including Kentucky Derby Ken. That was my favorite mortgage fraud Ken. 317 00:16:55.039 --> 00:16:55.919 You're always going to go to. 318 00:16:55.919 --> 00:16:57.799 The Kentucky I'm always going to go to the Kentucky one. 319 00:16:57.759 --> 00:17:01.759 Oklahoma Ken showing him in a bathrobe and a cowboy hat, 320 00:17:01.759 --> 00:17:05.240 which I really enjoyed, Hawaii Can and Florida Can noting 321 00:17:05.279 --> 00:17:08.759 his vacation houses that he owns their clueless Can, soft 322 00:17:08.799 --> 00:17:12.319 on crime Can, Olive Art Can, and Commie Can. Which 323 00:17:12.400 --> 00:17:13.880 is your favorite? Jasper? 324 00:17:14.319 --> 00:17:16.440 I mean, I just I love the effort to try 325 00:17:16.440 --> 00:17:20.400 to stake out some ground. I guess attacking Paxton from 326 00:17:20.440 --> 00:17:24.279 the right feels like a novel concept, but like I said, 327 00:17:24.440 --> 00:17:27.000 they're kind of emptying the tank and just you know, 328 00:17:27.160 --> 00:17:28.000 seeing what sticks. 329 00:17:28.720 --> 00:17:33.119 Will it be enough for him to uh, for corner 330 00:17:33.119 --> 00:17:33.680 to pull it out? 331 00:17:33.759 --> 00:17:34.480 That is the question. 332 00:17:34.559 --> 00:17:37.640 Indeed, indeed, my favorite thing about this is the like 333 00:17:38.400 --> 00:17:42.359 the capabilities and shortcomings of AI. How some of these 334 00:17:42.440 --> 00:17:45.200 Ken dolls like look exactly like Ken Paxon, and like 335 00:17:45.440 --> 00:17:48.160 I would argue that Dave p Ken looks more like 336 00:17:48.240 --> 00:17:49.519 Austin mayor Kirk Watson. 337 00:17:49.759 --> 00:17:52.400 Yeah, there was some discussion in our channel, but like 338 00:17:52.440 --> 00:17:53.480 some of them almost have like a. 339 00:17:53.440 --> 00:17:54.799 Greg Abbott look to them. 340 00:17:54.680 --> 00:17:56.960 That you're like, Okay, yeah, there's been some kind of 341 00:17:57.000 --> 00:18:01.440 sketchy Paxton a like stand ins for somebody who I 342 00:18:01.440 --> 00:18:03.200 guess is supposed to be Paxton and some of the 343 00:18:03.240 --> 00:18:06.519 advertising and you know you kind of just have to 344 00:18:06.559 --> 00:18:09.240 use context clues to figure out that's who that's supposed 345 00:18:09.279 --> 00:18:14.000 to be. Is there a favorite in this race right now? 346 00:18:15.319 --> 00:18:19.279 You know, I think anyone who says they they know 347 00:18:19.319 --> 00:18:22.880 what's how this is going to go is is lying 348 00:18:22.920 --> 00:18:24.920 to you. I mean, I think it's I've seen it 349 00:18:24.960 --> 00:18:28.680 described as a jump ball. I mean to the point 350 00:18:28.680 --> 00:18:31.960 about the lack of public polling, you know, aside from 351 00:18:32.039 --> 00:18:36.920 just the the internals from you know, politically biased groups. 352 00:18:36.960 --> 00:18:39.279 I mean, I think the one data point we have 353 00:18:39.559 --> 00:18:44.359 was most recent poll with Paxton up by three percentage points, 354 00:18:44.920 --> 00:18:47.279 well within the margin of error. So you know, I 355 00:18:47.279 --> 00:18:50.319 think maybe you could you could make the case that 356 00:18:50.359 --> 00:18:55.519 Paxton is slightly favored just by virtue of you know, 357 00:18:55.680 --> 00:18:58.119 he he. I mean, I don't I don't really even 358 00:18:58.160 --> 00:19:00.680 know what would support that point other than just that's 359 00:19:00.680 --> 00:19:02.599 sort of been the vibe from the start was that 360 00:19:02.680 --> 00:19:07.039 Cornin was kind of playing catch up, and you know, 361 00:19:07.079 --> 00:19:09.920 but then you look at the result of March third 362 00:19:09.960 --> 00:19:13.000 and you see Corning up by a hair you know, 363 00:19:13.079 --> 00:19:15.519 I think what it comes down to. It's kind of 364 00:19:15.519 --> 00:19:18.480 a cliche that, you know, it all comes down to turnout. 365 00:19:18.480 --> 00:19:20.720 But if you're ever going to use that cliche, this 366 00:19:20.759 --> 00:19:23.359 is the race to do it, because you know, the 367 00:19:23.680 --> 00:19:26.279 voters are so one thing we have seen from these 368 00:19:26.279 --> 00:19:28.920 polls is that voters are pretty much locked in. You know, 369 00:19:28.960 --> 00:19:31.640 there aren't that many folks who are sitting on the 370 00:19:31.680 --> 00:19:34.400 fence after you know, one hundred plus million dollars of 371 00:19:34.880 --> 00:19:38.000 ad spending. There aren't that many people who you know, 372 00:19:38.079 --> 00:19:41.240 voted for you know, one of the candidates who are 373 00:19:41.359 --> 00:19:44.279 thinking about switching their vote, although those people do exist, 374 00:19:44.720 --> 00:19:47.880 So I think it's just, you know, maybe the best 375 00:19:47.880 --> 00:19:50.920 way to get at that question whose favorite is what, 376 00:19:51.480 --> 00:19:55.000 you know, the if you look at the Texas Republican 377 00:19:55.319 --> 00:19:58.200 runoff electorate, like who would that? Who do you think 378 00:19:58.240 --> 00:20:01.880 that would naturally fail? And it's you know, I guess 379 00:20:01.920 --> 00:20:06.559 the more conservative devoted folks do you tend to be overrepresented, 380 00:20:06.799 --> 00:20:10.440 So you know, that's a point in Paxton's favor potentially, 381 00:20:11.000 --> 00:20:14.400 But then you know it's it's also older folks who 382 00:20:14.400 --> 00:20:16.920 tend to more reliably show up. Those are voters who 383 00:20:16.920 --> 00:20:19.200 are breaking towards Corn and so it's kind of a 384 00:20:19.240 --> 00:20:21.039 mess trying to predict what's going to happen. 385 00:20:21.359 --> 00:20:25.799 Is very hard to trust poles in the primaries, let alone. 386 00:20:25.680 --> 00:20:27.319 Run offs, right, I mean we were I was saying 387 00:20:27.319 --> 00:20:30.160 someone yesterday, it's like one of the runoffs where like 388 00:20:30.279 --> 00:20:34.240 the runoff is getting as much attention as the you know, primary. Like, 389 00:20:34.279 --> 00:20:36.279 I am so curious to what turnout does look like, 390 00:20:36.279 --> 00:20:38.759 because I do think usually we see this really sharp 391 00:20:38.799 --> 00:20:42.480 fall off with runoffs, particularly if there's not like a headliner. 392 00:20:42.559 --> 00:20:44.759 But this, like the attention on this is as much 393 00:20:44.759 --> 00:20:48.599 attention as it got during the primary. I think and 394 00:20:49.319 --> 00:20:52.640 it will be. I think we were joking the other day, like, 395 00:20:53.440 --> 00:20:54.480 you know, oh, is it a poll? 396 00:20:54.599 --> 00:20:56.240 Does it show that it's neck and neck? Does it 397 00:20:56.240 --> 00:20:57.880 show that it's a dead heat? Does it show that 398 00:20:58.160 --> 00:21:01.720 one of them is up by one or two points? Fantastic? Yeah, 399 00:21:01.799 --> 00:21:03.480 give it to you know, give me a thousand more 400 00:21:03.480 --> 00:21:03.759 of those. 401 00:21:03.920 --> 00:21:08.279