Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to the Texas Tribune trip cast for
Speaker 1: Tuesday May twelfth, twenty twenty six. My name is Matthew Watkins,
Speaker 1: editor in chief of the Texas Tribune, joined as usual
Speaker 1: by Law and politics reporter Eleanor clipping Off. Hello, Eleanor.
Speaker 2: Hello. Feel like it's been a while since we've been
Speaker 2: together for one of these.
Speaker 1: It has been a while, it has been a while.
Speaker 1: I don't know. People probably can't see this in the video,
Speaker 1: but I'm sweating right now. I'm living a as I
Speaker 1: often do an episode of Seinfeld where I exercise in
Speaker 1: the gym downstairs in our office, and I have not
Speaker 1: stopped sweating, and it's that's kind of killing me.
Speaker 3: So yeah, yeah, about that time of the year, It's true.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's time of the year to get back to
Speaker 4: the gym.
Speaker 1: That's right, Okay, I'm not going to dig into that.
Speaker 5: I was talking about how hot it's getting.
Speaker 2: It but summer bodies, guys.
Speaker 5: I could see how that'd be taken as a dig.
Speaker 1: That other voice you hear is politics editor Jasper Share. Hello, Jasper, Hello,
Speaker 1: having me the newly wedded Jasper Sharer. Congratulations, Thank you.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's an honor to make my first podcast appearance
Speaker 3: after the wedding on none other than the Trip Cast.
Speaker 2: That's right, it's a married.
Speaker 1: They say, you're not really married until you come on
Speaker 1: the Trip Cast and talk about it.
Speaker 5: They do, say, I've heard that many time.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, well you I mean, for those who don't
Speaker 4: know you married. Texas Tribune reporter Taylor Goldenstein.
Speaker 5: Uh, indeed, did you ask.
Speaker 4: Matthew for his blessing before you? I guess you didn't
Speaker 4: work here when you proposed.
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I absolutely would have if we'd both been
Speaker 3: working here, but uh, you know, the all this just
Speaker 3: came together beforehand.
Speaker 5: So but hopefully he approves.
Speaker 2: Would you have given them.
Speaker 1: I think so, you know, I would have maybe said, like,
Speaker 1: let's stagger the honeymoon. Yeah, but actually I have a
Speaker 1: funny story about this. Y'all are taking like a delayed honeymoon,
Speaker 1: is that right? But the Tribune we have like a
Speaker 1: Google staffing calendar where we keep track of, you know,
Speaker 1: like journalists taking time off so we can plan the
Speaker 1: news and everything. And I remember, like right around y'all's wedding,
Speaker 1: like y'all both had like some days before the weekend
Speaker 1: and then after the weekend, I see that Taylor has
Speaker 1: two days off and Jasper only has one, and I'm
Speaker 1: looking at this and I'm like, huh, this is gonna
Speaker 1: be interesting to watch. And behold, on Monday, the message
Speaker 1: comes in Jasper needs to take one last day off.
Speaker 5: Yeah. I was just you know, giving you guys a headfake, yeah,
Speaker 5: or a misch.
Speaker 4: I feel like you also did this on the front end,
Speaker 4: where Rebecca Allen, our managing editor who manages you and Taylor,
Speaker 4: was like, Jasper, you have asked for two days off.
Speaker 2: The week of the wedding, and Taylor's asked for a week?
Speaker 1: Shall we shall we discuss.
Speaker 2: Marriage, but don't do that.
Speaker 3: We're already yeah, starting off on the right foot. Yeah yeah,
Speaker 3: but Taylor, Taylor, you know, got her way. I ended
Speaker 3: up taking more days.
Speaker 2: So, you know, Taylor very anti work, never never works
Speaker 2: a day.
Speaker 5: I've always said this.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, speaking of marriage drama, let's talk about the
Speaker 1: US smooth. We can cut that out. No, we are
Speaker 1: recording this less than a week until early voting starts
Speaker 1: in the primary runoffs this May, and there is a
Speaker 1: lot of talk about about where things sit and where
Speaker 1: we're going. Of course, the US Senate primary being the
Speaker 1: big one, but a bunch of other races as well.
Speaker 1: So that is why we have brought Jasper on to
Speaker 1: talk and so let's launch into that US Senate race.
Speaker 1: We I think the last time we talked about this
Speaker 1: on the trip cast, we were all talking about, you know,
Speaker 1: when's that Donald Trump endorsement coming? And here we are
Speaker 1: less than a week out from early voting and we
Speaker 1: still have not seen that endorsement. Jasper, what's going on there?
Speaker 3: Well, I, you know, I think what what happened was Trump.
Speaker 3: You know, he of course famously teased his impending endorsement
Speaker 3: right after the March third primary. You know, it seemed
Speaker 3: like that was going to be forthcoming. I think he
Speaker 3: used the word soon, and then he was going to
Speaker 3: be calling on whoever he didn't endorse to to drop out.
Speaker 5: Seems like, you.
Speaker 3: Know, the the folks who are supporting Paxton in the
Speaker 3: race kind of got got the sense that Trump was
Speaker 3: going to endorse Cornyn and sort of made made it
Speaker 3: a trial balloon in the sense that they leaked out
Speaker 3: the you know this this impending endorsement. It ginned up
Speaker 3: this you know, backlash from folks in in kind of
Speaker 3: the the maga Bass, just like rank and file people
Speaker 3: on on Twitter all the way up to you know,
Speaker 3: I think there were some folks who were in the
Speaker 3: President's ear, some of Paxton's allies, just saying, look, this
Speaker 3: would be a mistake. So whatever the case, you know,
Speaker 3: Trump has decided to once again. You know, this was
Speaker 3: not the first time that he's teased the possibility of
Speaker 3: an endorsement. So here we are early voting, less than
Speaker 3: a week away. Seems like we're not getting an endorsement,
Speaker 3: although you know, you never know. I was making the
Speaker 3: point that back in twenty eighteen, Beyonce endorsed Better Work
Speaker 3: with like three hours to go on election day. So
Speaker 3: that's kind of our our benchmark, I guess for the
Speaker 3: But you know, now it's just the two candidates are,
Speaker 3: you know, having to make their case by themselves without
Speaker 3: this you know, other big factor that we thought was
Speaker 3: going to be the decider from the start.
Speaker 5: It just never materialized.
Speaker 2: I mean, we've talked about this.
Speaker 4: I think back when we first talked about this, which
Speaker 4: is like, is possible Trump is not paying that much
Speaker 4: attention to the early voting dot deadline all these timelines.
Speaker 4: I was going to note, like, not only did he
Speaker 4: say he was going to endorse. He said the other
Speaker 4: person should drop out, which sounded so ludicrous, but this
Speaker 4: actually happened in Kentucky. He endorsed, you know, Andy Barr
Speaker 4: for that Senate seat and offered the other guy a
Speaker 4: seat in his administration ambassadorship. And the guy dropped out.
Speaker 4: And there's still Daniel Cameron still in the race. But
Speaker 4: like President Trump does have the ability to sort of
Speaker 4: do this and has done this sort of puppeteering, and
Speaker 4: in this case he has chosen to not for reasons
Speaker 4: you mentioned.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it does seem less likely at this point that
Speaker 1: someone would drop out. His quote this week earlier this
Speaker 1: week that he'll make a decision maybe relatively soon on
Speaker 1: the race. I don't know. I don't know. He did
Speaker 1: endorse some people in the primary, like deep in the
Speaker 1: early voting.
Speaker 4: Period, right, yeah, so, and like I guess, you know, again,
Speaker 4: he I'm sure has people in both ears about Corn
Speaker 4: and impacts and Corn and Paxton. No one is talking
Speaker 4: about what if he pulls out at the last minute,
Speaker 4: waits and does the general election Tallarico nod.
Speaker 3: He's talking about it. If not, Yeah, they're winding up
Speaker 3: on the gas tax.
Speaker 1: Maybe Yeah, that's right. Maybe Mom, Donnie's in his ear,
Speaker 1: you know this, Yeah, I could see it. Well.
Speaker 3: I think, you know, on a somewhat serious note here,
Speaker 3: like I think that one of the you know, big
Speaker 3: draws for Trump in terms of you know, what might
Speaker 3: have prompted him to make an endorsement was you know,
Speaker 3: just clearly, you know, he seemed to be thinking about
Speaker 3: holding the seat for Republicans in November. You know, it's
Speaker 3: not necessarily that he when he was leaning towards Cornyn,
Speaker 3: that he likes Cornyn so much more than Paxton that
Speaker 3: you know, that was going to prompt an endorsement. It
Speaker 3: was more, you know, this idea that that Cornyan and
Speaker 3: his allies have been advancing from the start, that he's
Speaker 3: the more electable candidate, he would be a safer pick
Speaker 3: in the general election. You know, Paxton has some you know,
Speaker 3: fundraising issues that could require rescuing from from you know,
Speaker 3: Republican groups outside the state. So, you know, and I
Speaker 3: think the evidence of you know, Cornyn being a stronger
Speaker 3: general election candidate has you know, kind of favored a
Speaker 3: little bit. There have been polls that you know, I
Speaker 3: think and we haven't seen a ton of polling in
Speaker 3: the runoff, but just kind of throughout, you know, throughout
Speaker 3: the race, there has not been a super clear picture
Speaker 3: of you know, Cornyn significantly outperforming Paxton in the general.
Speaker 3: So I think that could also be contributing to some
Speaker 3: of Trump's you know, reluctance. You know, there's there's no
Speaker 3: clear benefit maybe in his eye, to supporting Cornying.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, we now get to the point of
Speaker 1: the podcast where I just read off poll numbers everyone's
Speaker 1: favorite part. A you gov poll taken in the field
Speaker 1: in mid April showed a tall Ico seven point lead
Speaker 1: and a over Cornyn, and the Tallerico eight point lead
Speaker 1: over Packson. That's with a high number of undecided voters.
Speaker 1: A sling Shot Strategies pull showing a tall Rico lead
Speaker 1: five point lead over Packson and a three point lead
Speaker 1: over Cornyn. So you know there is and then and
Speaker 1: then another one Impact research showing tall Rico with a
Speaker 1: two point lead over Cornyn and a one point lead
Speaker 1: over Paxson. So a little bit mixed signals. I think
Speaker 1: it's hard to read too much into may poles, particularly
Speaker 1: when you don't know who one of the candidates are.
Speaker 1: But at the very least, I think not a lot
Speaker 1: of evidence pointing to like a massive gap. I think
Speaker 1: the other question, which I will hint to already saying
Speaker 1: that I'm a bit skeptical too, is the fundraising question.
Speaker 1: Cornin has clearly been a more successful fundraiser during the
Speaker 1: runoff and during the primary, and that is leading some
Speaker 1: to say that this could be a big problem in
Speaker 1: the general election if Paxon is having trouble fundraising given
Speaker 1: the fact that taller Ico is raising massive amounts of money.
Speaker 1: What's your take on that angle.
Speaker 3: You know, I mean, I think the money will always
Speaker 3: you know, if Paxton captures the nomination, the money will
Speaker 3: materialize in some way, shape or form.
Speaker 5: You know, I think it.
Speaker 3: I think, you know, the worst case scenario for Republicans
Speaker 3: would be that, you know, Paxton continues to have trouble,
Speaker 3: you know, fundraising on his own. He needs to kind
Speaker 3: of call in the cavalry, the sort of senate GOP leadership,
Speaker 3: you know, national packs might have to you know, potentially
Speaker 3: divert money away from states like Maine, Alaska that they'd
Speaker 3: rather be be spending it on. But you know, there's
Speaker 3: also the possibility that some of the Texas based donors
Speaker 3: who've been supporting Cornyn could you know, pivot and you know,
Speaker 3: kind of plug their nose and you know, give to
Speaker 3: to Paxton because he's just you know, they prefer him
Speaker 3: over over tall Rico. I think, you know, there are
Speaker 3: also a bunch of donors who have been sitting out
Speaker 3: kind of sitting on you know, their their money, just
Speaker 3: waiting for you know, they think they'll get more bang
Speaker 3: for their buck spending in the general. So, you know,
Speaker 3: I think it's clearly Corn's a safer bet to have
Speaker 3: the money needed to counter the you know, Tall Rico
Speaker 3: fundraising juggernaut. But I think it's you know, no sure
Speaker 3: thing that Paxton's going to be you know, a huge
Speaker 3: problem on that front.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it just seems like I have a hard time
Speaker 1: seeing a scenario where you know, this is a competitive race.
Speaker 1: People are concerned about Texas playing a role and flipping
Speaker 1: the Senate to the Democrats, and there's not just the
Speaker 1: cavalry coming. Maybe they're not donating directly to Paxton's campaign,
Speaker 1: but I think they would love to spend a ton
Speaker 1: of money bashing Tallarico, this guy who you know, would
Speaker 1: be trying to flip Texas for the first time in
Speaker 1: a generation who people are already sort of like talking
Speaker 1: about I would say kind of prematurely, but talking about
Speaker 1: him as like a potential VP candidate in twenty twenty eight.
Speaker 1: I mean, why would you not want to like come
Speaker 1: in there and like knock that guy off his perch.
Speaker 1: It might not have anything to do with Paxton. And
Speaker 1: you know, there's there's a history of donors in the
Speaker 1: Republican Party being willing to sort of set aside maybe
Speaker 1: their concerns about the personal lives or the you know,
Speaker 1: even legal troubles of a candidate and for the sake
Speaker 1: of maintaining power, particularly you know, to to have control
Speaker 1: of Supreme Court seats going forward. So I don't know,
Speaker 1: I just view that with a little bit of skepticism.
Speaker 3: And while we're talking about you know, premature stuff, I mean,
Speaker 3: even thinking ahead to the importance of Texas on the
Speaker 3: the national map, looking ahead to the twenty thirty census,
Speaker 3: there's you know, all the the you know, we've been
Speaker 3: thinking about redistricting a lot over here, and you know,
Speaker 3: I've kind of seen these projections that that showed Texas
Speaker 3: is going to pick up probably more congressional seats after
Speaker 3: the next census, and you know, it probably will be
Speaker 3: a tough It will only make things tougher for Democrats
Speaker 3: nationally with you know, Texas and some of the other
Speaker 3: red states like Florida probably gaining you know, apportionment, and
Speaker 3: so there's going to be a lot of you know,
Speaker 3: motivation for Republicans to establish you know, that Texas is
Speaker 3: more like the Trump plus fourteen state that we saw
Speaker 3: two years ago and not something that you know is
Speaker 3: a jump ball or you know, a purple state heading
Speaker 3: into this you know critical, you know, this outsized role,
Speaker 3: it's going to play into the twenty thirties decades. So
Speaker 3: I know, just while we're talking, prematurely wanted to throw
Speaker 3: that out there.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the like fundraising thing, I mean, there's
Speaker 4: been reported in several outlets and we've reported, we've heard
Speaker 4: it from people. But you know, there's a lot of
Speaker 4: I think Paxton donors who are like, well, you know,
Speaker 4: we'll wait and see.
Speaker 2: Like I think there are people who don't feel as.
Speaker 4: Strongly as Ken Paxton does that John Cornyn would be
Speaker 4: such a terrible outcome that they're like, all right, if
Speaker 4: Paxton is in it, then we'll throw in the money.
Speaker 2: We're not gonna let Tallarico win.
Speaker 1: Right right, Okay, So tell us desper a little bit
Speaker 1: about just like what's happening in this campaign? Are the
Speaker 1: what are the candidates doing? See right now? How is
Speaker 1: this kind of shaping up from an issue standpoint?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think one of the big turns
Speaker 3: that we've seen in the runoff as opposed to the
Speaker 3: first round is just the messaging has gotten a lot
Speaker 3: more negative. You know, you saw Cornyn you know, leading
Speaker 3: up to March third, focused a lot more and you know,
Speaker 3: I say, corn but it's really a lot of the
Speaker 3: the allied groups that have been spending tens of millions
Speaker 3: of dollars promoting him, and a lot of the messaging
Speaker 3: from his side in round one was about kind of
Speaker 3: reintroducing him to voters, promoting his his conservative credentials. I
Speaker 3: think there is maybe a little bit of image repairing
Speaker 3: going on, you know, kind of countering the notion that he's,
Speaker 3: you know, this this rhino anti Trump sellout. And so
Speaker 3: once they and you saw that, you know, work to
Speaker 3: a just based on the results of March third, Cornyn
Speaker 3: coming in with a you know, surprising if narrow lead,
Speaker 3: So you know, now it's it kind of stands to
Speaker 3: reason that the corn Inside is turning more towards driving
Speaker 3: up Paxton's negatives, going after him for just about everything
Speaker 3: that you know, you could think of, dredging up everything
Speaker 3: from his you know, alleged marriage and fidelities to you know,
Speaker 3: alleged shortcomings of his office. Like there have been some
Speaker 3: ads lately from the corn Inside accusing Paxson of you know,
Speaker 3: in his office, of taking it easy on people charged
Speaker 3: with sex crimes. So it's you know, no holds barred
Speaker 3: at this point. And I think, I mean same thing
Speaker 3: with with Paxton. I think that has been a little
Speaker 3: bit more of a steady you know, to the extent
Speaker 3: that Packs Inside has been running ads, they've they've continued
Speaker 3: to be really overmatched by the spending on on corn Inside,
Speaker 3: but you know they've continued to stay negative against Paxton.
Speaker 3: There was this this ad from the main pro Paxson
Speaker 3: super pack recently where they were you know, it sort
Speaker 3: of led with this this imagery from nineteen eighty four
Speaker 3: talking about it was a Reagan landslide er. You know,
Speaker 3: Prince was in vogue and oh yeah, that's when John
Speaker 3: Cornyn was first elected to office, and by the way,
Speaker 3: he's been you know, a rhino ever since. And so
Speaker 3: that just hits all the notes, and everyone's just kind
Speaker 3: of emptying the tank, trying to get all their attacks out,
Speaker 3: you know, before May twenty sixth.
Speaker 1: And of course everyone's favorite the Ken Dolls. Of course,
Speaker 1: how can I forget this website that John Cornyn's campaign
Speaker 1: I believe has has put up, you know, jumping on
Speaker 1: our attorney general's first name and piecing together a bunch
Speaker 1: of what seemed to be AI generated images of Ken dolls,
Speaker 1: including Kentucky Derby Ken. That was my favorite mortgage fraud Ken.
Speaker 1: You're always going to go to.
Speaker 2: The Kentucky I'm always going to go to the Kentucky one.
Speaker 1: Oklahoma Ken showing him in a bathrobe and a cowboy hat,
Speaker 1: which I really enjoyed, Hawaii Can and Florida Can noting
Speaker 1: his vacation houses that he owns their clueless Can, soft
Speaker 1: on crime Can, Olive Art Can, and Commie Can. Which
Speaker 1: is your favorite? Jasper?
Speaker 3: I mean, I just I love the effort to try
Speaker 3: to stake out some ground. I guess attacking Paxton from
Speaker 3: the right feels like a novel concept, but like I said,
Speaker 3: they're kind of emptying the tank and just you know,
Speaker 3: seeing what sticks.
Speaker 4: Will it be enough for him to uh, for corner
Speaker 4: to pull it out?
Speaker 2: That is the question.
Speaker 1: Indeed, indeed, my favorite thing about this is the like
Speaker 1: the capabilities and shortcomings of AI. How some of these
Speaker 1: Ken dolls like look exactly like Ken Paxon, and like
Speaker 1: I would argue that Dave p Ken looks more like
Speaker 1: Austin mayor Kirk Watson.
Speaker 4: Yeah, there was some discussion in our channel, but like
Speaker 4: some of them almost have like a.
Speaker 2: Greg Abbott look to them.
Speaker 3: That you're like, Okay, yeah, there's been some kind of
Speaker 3: sketchy Paxton a like stand ins for somebody who I
Speaker 3: guess is supposed to be Paxton and some of the
Speaker 3: advertising and you know you kind of just have to
Speaker 3: use context clues to figure out that's who that's supposed
Speaker 3: to be. Is there a favorite in this race right now?
Speaker 3: You know, I think anyone who says they they know
Speaker 3: what's how this is going to go is is lying
Speaker 3: to you. I mean, I think it's I've seen it
Speaker 3: described as a jump ball. I mean to the point
Speaker 3: about the lack of public polling, you know, aside from
Speaker 3: just the the internals from you know, politically biased groups.
Speaker 3: I mean, I think the one data point we have
Speaker 3: was most recent poll with Paxton up by three percentage points,
Speaker 3: well within the margin of error. So you know, I
Speaker 3: think maybe you could you could make the case that
Speaker 3: Paxton is slightly favored just by virtue of you know,
Speaker 3: he he. I mean, I don't I don't really even
Speaker 3: know what would support that point other than just that's
Speaker 3: sort of been the vibe from the start was that
Speaker 3: Cornin was kind of playing catch up, and you know,
Speaker 3: but then you look at the result of March third
Speaker 3: and you see Corning up by a hair you know,
Speaker 3: I think what it comes down to. It's kind of
Speaker 3: a cliche that, you know, it all comes down to turnout.
Speaker 3: But if you're ever going to use that cliche, this
Speaker 3: is the race to do it, because you know, the
Speaker 3: voters are so one thing we have seen from these
Speaker 3: polls is that voters are pretty much locked in. You know,
Speaker 3: there aren't that many folks who are sitting on the
Speaker 3: fence after you know, one hundred plus million dollars of
Speaker 3: ad spending. There aren't that many people who you know,
Speaker 3: voted for you know, one of the candidates who are
Speaker 3: thinking about switching their vote, although those people do exist,
Speaker 3: So I think it's just, you know, maybe the best
Speaker 3: way to get at that question whose favorite is what,
Speaker 3: you know, the if you look at the Texas Republican
Speaker 3: runoff electorate, like who would that? Who do you think
Speaker 3: that would naturally fail? And it's you know, I guess
Speaker 3: the more conservative devoted folks do you tend to be overrepresented,
Speaker 3: So you know, that's a point in Paxton's favor potentially,
Speaker 3: But then you know it's it's also older folks who
Speaker 3: tend to more reliably show up. Those are voters who
Speaker 3: are breaking towards Corn and so it's kind of a
Speaker 3: mess trying to predict what's going to happen.
Speaker 1: Is very hard to trust poles in the primaries, let alone.
Speaker 4: Run offs, right, I mean we were I was saying
Speaker 4: someone yesterday, it's like one of the runoffs where like
Speaker 4: the runoff is getting as much attention as the you know, primary. Like,
Speaker 4: I am so curious to what turnout does look like,
Speaker 4: because I do think usually we see this really sharp
Speaker 4: fall off with runoffs, particularly if there's not like a headliner.
Speaker 4: But this, like the attention on this is as much
Speaker 4: attention as it got during the primary. I think and
Speaker 4: it will be. I think we were joking the other day, like,
Speaker 4: you know, oh, is it a poll?
Speaker 2: Does it show that it's neck and neck? Does it
Speaker 2: show that it's a dead heat? Does it show that
Speaker 2: one of them is up by one or two points? Fantastic? Yeah,
Speaker 2: give it to you know, give me a thousand more
Speaker 2: of those.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Anybody want to guess what the prediction markets say.
Speaker 4: Oh, I'm gonna say the prediction markets are favoring Packston.
Speaker 3: Give me a number by four, I go, like, sixty
Speaker 3: five percent percent?
Speaker 4: Sorry, Bry, I forgot that this is not not cool. Yeah, yes,
Speaker 4: it's not a full So there are sixty sixty five
Speaker 4: percent in favorite then, yes, yeah, I would say, I'll
Speaker 4: say fifty eight percent.
Speaker 1: Okay, So are we playing actually does yeah? Are we
Speaker 1: playing prices? Right rules? Or no? No? No, I don't Okay,
Speaker 1: Jasper is the winner? Sixty two percent?
Speaker 3: Pretty good?
Speaker 1: Yeah, buying thoughts.
Speaker 2: But in Bob Barker's world, I want all right, very good?
Speaker 1: Okay, So let's talk a little bit about some of
Speaker 1: the other races. I'm you know, since since I get
Speaker 1: to be driving this podcast, I get to go to
Speaker 1: my favorite one next, which is the railroad commissioner race.
Speaker 1: Just to just like an incredibly fascinating race. You have
Speaker 1: Jim Wright, who was elected to office in a sort
Speaker 1: of surprise in his primary I guess four years ago
Speaker 1: where no one really knew he was. He wasn't really
Speaker 1: spending any money, and some suspect because of his name,
Speaker 1: Jim Wright looking good on the ballot just sort of
Speaker 1: emerged onto the ticket.
Speaker 2: That was true.
Speaker 4: Aaron Wright's I think would have done much better in
Speaker 4: the AG primary than he did.
Speaker 5: Well a little more visibility on that race. Y.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Fast forward to twenty twenty six, He's now being
Speaker 1: primaried by Bo French, a former Terran County GOP chair
Speaker 1: in the sort of Tim Dunn empower Texans Orbit has
Speaker 1: run unsuccessfully for a few different seats, and now Jim
Speaker 1: Wright is fully the establishment candidate. Endorsements that have come
Speaker 1: out in favor of him lately. Governor Craig gave it,
Speaker 1: Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, Land Commissioner Don Buckingham, Railroad commissioners
Speaker 1: Wayne Christian and christ Krattick, a handful of congressional leaders,
Speaker 1: the Texas Oil and Gas Association Texas Farm Bureau really
Speaker 1: just like a wave of endorsements coming down in his favor. Jasper,
Speaker 1: give me a read on this race.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean we were sort of discussing the question
Speaker 3: of you know, is is bo French testing whether it's
Speaker 3: possible to run like too far to the right in
Speaker 3: an open GOP primary and or in a GOP primary.
Speaker 3: And I think, you know, it's maybe the best way
Speaker 3: to look at that question is like he's testing whether
Speaker 3: you can run so far to the right that it
Speaker 3: brings all these these heavy hitters off the sidelines, who
Speaker 3: are you know, perhaps worried about general election appeal and
Speaker 3: and you know, we know that it was French's controversial
Speaker 3: commentary that that made him a target of Dan Patrick
Speaker 3: in the past. You know, specifically, it was French posting
Speaker 3: this this social media poll where he was asking whether
Speaker 3: Jews or Muslims posed a bigger threat to America. So
Speaker 3: I think those sorts of things, we know that that
Speaker 3: is causing concern among folks like Patrick who are who
Speaker 3: are putting their you know, political capital on the line
Speaker 3: supporting this relatively unknown incumbent who's being opposed by all
Speaker 3: these groups that you were mentioning that are you know,
Speaker 3: typically pretty aligned with with folks like Patrick. So, you know,
Speaker 3: I think it's and this is also one of those
Speaker 3: races that it's probably the most uncertain at this point
Speaker 3: just because so few it's on so few people's radar.
Speaker 3: I think the one pole that we've seen had right
Speaker 3: up by yeah, seven points, but this is from the
Speaker 3: University of Houston. But more than a third of voters
Speaker 3: were unsure who they're going to vote for. So and
Speaker 3: there just isn't a whole lot of ad spending too,
Speaker 3: you know that you'd think might influence those third of
Speaker 3: voters in these closing weeks. So it's kind of a
Speaker 3: big shrug.
Speaker 4: I something with French, like, yes, the question is is
Speaker 4: he running too far to the right, But also like
Speaker 4: do people just want, like is there an appetite for
Speaker 4: this sort of unabashed conservative culture war stuff in an
Speaker 4: office that doesn't actually have a ton to do with that, right, Like,
Speaker 4: you know, I think we've seen candidates for other offices
Speaker 4: who are saying, you know, well, this is how I
Speaker 4: would use this office to advance these issues that I'm
Speaker 4: talking about that have done, you know, versus I think,
Speaker 4: you know, French is talking a lot about like Islamification
Speaker 4: and DEI and these really you know, these topics that
Speaker 4: are front and center for the GOP right now, but
Speaker 4: also that you don't have a ton to a ton
Speaker 4: of say in as you know, being on the Railroad Commission.
Speaker 4: And it's like, you know, is that appealing to voters
Speaker 4: or our voters like maybe a little like a little
Speaker 4: smarter than that and want to know like okay, but
Speaker 4: like what will.
Speaker 5: You do well?
Speaker 3: And one point on that is, you know, Jim Right
Speaker 3: has I think, after kind of ignoring this issue for
Speaker 3: a while, he did finally put out a statement recently
Speaker 3: where he was he was basically denouncing you know, French's
Speaker 3: focus on all these other issues that you know, in
Speaker 3: Jim Right's words, have you know that the Railroad Commission
Speaker 3: has no authority to affect? But you know, at the
Speaker 3: same time he's still acknowledging like in that same statement
Speaker 3: he said, you know, I too am concerned about the
Speaker 3: quote unquote alarming is the loomification of Texas. You know, actually,
Speaker 3: I uh brought in a prop to U to our
Speaker 3: trip cast. You know this this mailer from Jim Wright
Speaker 3: also you know, devotes a pretty healthy amount of space
Speaker 3: to some of those culture war issues that he's you know,
Speaker 3: separately going after French for you know, focusing on he's
Speaker 3: doing it here in this ad that's you know, he's
Speaker 3: saying he'll make sure that hostile foreign nations and radical
Speaker 3: militant Islamists never can never have any direct ownership over
Speaker 3: Texas energy.
Speaker 5: So you.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's maybe the the answer is that
Speaker 3: it needs to at least be part of the conversation,
Speaker 3: you know, especially if your opponent is talking about it.
Speaker 3: But maybe there is an appetite for I mean, the
Speaker 3: polls that we've seen and the results from March third
Speaker 3: do show maybe some appetite for like serious talk about
Speaker 3: you know, the stuff that Jim Wright's been focusing on,
Speaker 3: like plugging you know, orphaned orphaned wells and speeding up
Speaker 3: you know, permitting I mean, but I'd say, you know,
Speaker 3: it's not a whole lot of folks are familiar with
Speaker 3: the nitty gritty of what the Railroad Commission does. Maybe
Speaker 3: they don't even know that it doesn't have anything to
Speaker 3: do with railroads.
Speaker 4: So unless you really could look at it the other way, right,
Speaker 4: which is like a couple of years ago, both French
Speaker 4: was so persona on Grada and now.
Speaker 2: He's in a runoff for a major seat.
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I mean I think you know, other primary
Speaker 1: races this cycle have shown that, you know, in some
Speaker 1: of these races where they're pretty low profile, it's hard
Speaker 1: to even really understand what they do. I'm thinking about
Speaker 1: like the comptrollers race, i mean railroad commissioner. Right, It's
Speaker 1: we always talk about this. It's the name like suggests
Speaker 1: something completely different than what they do, and it has
Speaker 1: been an effective strategy. And I think easily understandable why
Speaker 1: in that kind of climate where if you're saying things
Speaker 1: that get attention, you're probably gonna have to say things
Speaker 1: that like aren't that related to the actual race. And
Speaker 1: then like people like us write stories about like oh
Speaker 1: they're talking about you know, like Islam, when like it's
Speaker 1: their job to like estimate how much revenue the you know,
Speaker 1: legislature has, and that like you know, among the most devoted,
Speaker 1: most passionate Republican primary voters is like a feature, not
Speaker 1: a bug, right of like oh they're you know, look
Speaker 1: at them getting a rise out of that, like whiny
Speaker 1: like egghead media or whatever.
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, I mean the reality is that, you know,
Speaker 3: ninety something percent of folks who turn out and vote
Speaker 3: in these elections are people who don't have any reason
Speaker 3: to be you know, dealing with the Railroad Commission on
Speaker 3: a daily basis or doesn't you know it affects them,
Speaker 3: but they have no you know, day to day interaction
Speaker 3: with like the comptroller's revenue estimates. So you know, there's
Speaker 3: got to be some way of reaching those voters where
Speaker 3: they are.
Speaker 1: But the thing is is, and this is where I
Speaker 1: think it's like the interesting test going back to like
Speaker 1: can you go too far to the right even for
Speaker 1: the Republican primary, is like, boy French has like really
Speaker 1: said some stuff, you know, and like you mentioned, like
Speaker 1: you know, targeting Muslims. The things he's you know, said
Speaker 1: that have been accused of being anti Semitic. You know,
Speaker 1: he's talked about deporting Native Americans.
Speaker 4: He's he's talked about departing one hundred million people, which
Speaker 4: is a third of the country, right.
Speaker 1: And I have to think no one has said this
Speaker 1: this is speculation, but I have to think that some
Speaker 1: of those things he said are what's driving this like
Speaker 1: cascade of statewide officials to come out and say like, Okay,
Speaker 1: we got to like let's let's let's elect Jim right here,
Speaker 1: and and I don't know whether that's how much of
Speaker 1: that is, you know, just their conscience and saying like
Speaker 1: this guy's going too far? How much of that is
Speaker 1: like when you have said this much stuff, like maybe
Speaker 1: you're more vulnerable in the general election. I think there
Speaker 1: are a lot of people in the industry who would
Speaker 1: really not like to have Democrats run the Railroad Commission
Speaker 1: when they're regular lading oil and gas. But I think,
Speaker 1: you know, the way that the establishment, and I'm not
Speaker 1: talking about the like George W. Bush establishment, I'm talking
Speaker 1: about the establishment in twenty twenty six has come out
Speaker 1: against him has been really interesting and fascinating to watch it.
Speaker 1: I'm really curious to see whether that will, you know,
Speaker 1: move the needle in this race.
Speaker 4: I think there are some in the GOP who feel
Speaker 4: like this is a bad look for us, Like we
Speaker 4: don't want to be associated with this, Like we have, like,
Speaker 4: you know, our sort of cultural issues that we care
Speaker 4: strongly about, but like we don't necessarily want to be
Speaker 4: associated with someone who is saying, like who's a bigger
Speaker 4: threat Jews or Muslims? Right, I think that's a line,
Speaker 4: I could see some of our elected officials drawing right.
Speaker 3: You also might see a be seeing a bigger list
Speaker 3: of folks, you know, coming off the sidelines due to
Speaker 3: the fact that it's a you know, Trump midterm year.
Speaker 3: The kind of the national climate is not you know,
Speaker 3: you might not see this paradive top officials coming out
Speaker 3: if Bo French was in a runoff, you know, under
Speaker 3: a Biden presidency for example.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And we saw like I think, like a mini
Speaker 1: version of this in the Agriculture commissioner race right where
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, I guess Trump endorsed sib Miller.
Speaker 1: So he's the ultimate establishment right now, but you had
Speaker 1: Greg Abbott going out against him, and that was obviously
Speaker 1: successful for him, and so and.
Speaker 4: They get to your points the last minute nature of
Speaker 4: that Trump endorsement well forever, but as an open question
Speaker 4: of would it have made more of a difference?
Speaker 1: But okay, eleanor attorney general's race.
Speaker 2: Go, finally my time to talk. Yeah, put on the clock.
Speaker 2: We have a very exciting attorney general's race.
Speaker 4: Obviously, the runoff between May's Middleton State Center from Galveston
Speaker 4: chip Roy US representative getting really you know, I think
Speaker 4: it's been pretty quiet up till now. Chip Roy has
Speaker 4: said just last week he was saying, you know, the
Speaker 4: gloves are coming off. We're going to start really swinging
Speaker 4: at Middleton. I think Middleton has been portraying himself as
Speaker 4: Maga Maze. Now chip Roy is trying to make Mecca
Speaker 4: Maze happen over this extremely nuanced bill that he was
Speaker 4: in favor of that potentially could have allowed you know,
Speaker 4: you know, mosques to be built. It's a very complicated
Speaker 4: issue that he's trying to hammer Middleton with, but you know,
Speaker 4: it's a hugely important office that I think Republicans nationally
Speaker 4: are like, we got to hold on to it. And
Speaker 4: I think there's a sense I've heard this from some
Speaker 4: people that you know, as long as it's being held
Speaker 4: by a Republican, they're like sort of okay between Roy
Speaker 4: and Middleton. But certainly they are going to be trying
Speaker 4: to draw distinctions between each other. We should say May's
Speaker 4: Middleton independently wealthy has put you know, I think close
Speaker 4: to at this point, well over fifteen million dollars into
Speaker 4: his campaign. You know, open question of whether the money
Speaker 4: is going to come through for chip Roy. And then
Speaker 4: we also have a runoff for Democrat a g Jojo
Speaker 4: Worski Nathan Johnson. That will be interesting as well.
Speaker 1: Right. Johnson, of course was a leader in the original vote.
Speaker 1: We also have the for the Democrats, we have Vicky Goodwin,
Speaker 1: who was very close to getting fifty percent in the
Speaker 1: lieutenant governor primary as well. That race will also be
Speaker 1: on the ballot. Okay, give me each of you as
Speaker 1: we wrap up one other race that you're watching, paying
Speaker 1: attention to jasper I since you might even want to
Speaker 1: go more than one.
Speaker 5: But well the okay you told me.
Speaker 1: How about we let Eleanor go first to talk about
Speaker 1: so you are.
Speaker 2: No, it is a really fascinating race.
Speaker 4: The Court of Criminal Appeals a court that people are.
Speaker 2: Not even typically a where exists. It is.
Speaker 4: Texas is one of only two states that has two
Speaker 4: top courts. The Supreme Court handles civil cases. The Court
Speaker 4: of Criminal Apeeals handles criminal cases, and it has been
Speaker 4: pretty sleepy.
Speaker 2: The main thing that they get.
Speaker 4: In trouble or sort of in the spotlight for, and
Speaker 4: like you know, in people's mind, is death penalty cases.
Speaker 4: But recently we have seen particularly Ken Paxton other Republicans
Speaker 4: sort of exerting influence on that bench to try to
Speaker 4: reshape it after a controversial voting rights or election law ruling,
Speaker 4: and so in that for one of those seats, we
Speaker 4: have a runoff which doesn't have up and often for
Speaker 4: the Republican nominee between Thomas Smith, who used to work
Speaker 4: at the AG's office and sort of more Packston aligned
Speaker 4: and Alison Fox, who was you know, a staff attorney
Speaker 4: for the court. It's gotten a little bit nasty and
Speaker 4: pretty contentious, and I think, yeah, it's one to watch
Speaker 4: just for this remaking of that court. That again, whether
Speaker 4: it'll change much on death penalty, maybe not, but it
Speaker 4: probably this remaking will change a lot on some of
Speaker 4: these other cases about like what the Attorney General's office
Speaker 4: can do for sure.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I was gonna bring up, yes, I
Speaker 3: suppose this is two races. The Texas's thirty fifth congressional
Speaker 3: district is kind of you know, there are definitely some
Speaker 3: more I guess flashy congressional runoffs going on. You've got
Speaker 3: you know, Texas eighteen with two Democratic incumbents, Christian Menafie
Speaker 3: and al Green going at each other. But thirty five
Speaker 3: is interesting. You know, first of all, it's one of
Speaker 3: the five seats that Republicans are targeting after they readrew
Speaker 3: the map last summer.
Speaker 5: It's it's an open seat.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 3: The incumbent, I guess in number only is Greg Kasar,
Speaker 3: but he's running up in Lloyd Dogget's districts because thirty
Speaker 3: five was totally redrawn. It's you know, partially in San Antonio,
Speaker 3: kind of goes out to those red counties to the east.
Speaker 5: And you've got.
Speaker 3: You know, one dynamic that has made this really interesting
Speaker 3: down the home stretch is that, first of all, Democrats,
Speaker 3: you know, see this opportunity to win this district because
Speaker 3: it's it's just barel Lely, a Hispanic majority district. So
Speaker 3: the thought is that, you know, it's a Trump plus
Speaker 3: ten seat, but if Hispanic voters swing back to Democrats,
Speaker 3: then it could absolutely be in play. And you're it
Speaker 3: seems like there's this this pack that's you know, there's
Speaker 3: signs that it's being propped up by Republicans that are
Speaker 3: spending in favor of kind of the farther left candidate
Speaker 3: in the Democratic runoff. You know, the candidate they're supporting.
Speaker 3: She has this history of making pretty i think, openly
Speaker 3: anti Semitic remarks. So First of all, that's just you know,
Speaker 3: a sign that you know, Republicans see this is potentially
Speaker 3: competitive too, that they're going out of their way to
Speaker 3: try to kind of meddle with the Democratic side. And
Speaker 3: then on the Republican side, you've got John Luhan, State Rep.
Speaker 3: Who you know, was involved in redrawing the lines to
Speaker 3: create this district, going up against Carlos Dilacruz, the brother
Speaker 3: of Monica Delacruz, in a in a neighboring district. So
Speaker 3: it will be just you know, folks in DC will
Speaker 3: be closely watching who comes out of both of those
Speaker 3: primaries to you know, see who their champions are for November.
Speaker 1: I feel like, you know, both parties fall into this
Speaker 1: trap of like, let's try to get the more problematic
Speaker 1: Canada up, and then all of a sudden you get
Speaker 1: that Canada, you know, and.
Speaker 2: They win exact and then you're.
Speaker 1: Like, what what did we do here?
Speaker 4: Okay, yes, it's almost like this is how we end
Speaker 4: up with a deeply polarized exactly almost.
Speaker 1: Yes, All right, well, I think we'll end it there.
Speaker 1: Thank you to both of you for this conversation, and
Speaker 1: everyone get out and vote next week as the early
Speaker 1: voting period starts. A big thank you to Robin Chris
Speaker 1: our producers as well, and we will be back next
Speaker 1: week