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Speaker 1: Welcome in to the opening line report, Kelly Stewart here

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this beautiful Saturday morning, and boy do we have a

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tough stuff to go over. We've got college basketball, college

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football playoff, and of course we've got some NFL even today.

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We're going to bring in a couple of different guys

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from wager talk dot com, starting off with Yanni the Greek.

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Then of course Teddy covers you guys know him from

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the opening line report with me, and then Steve Merrill

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Batton clean up for us answering all those college basketball questions. So,

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if you guys have a question, drop it in the chat.

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And if you hear somebody storing in the background, there

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is a grimlin at my feet trying to make him

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behave while I'm up here at my dad's house. Good

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luck and prayers to me for that one. Also shout

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out to those in the comment section already getting started,

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those wager Talk insiders. Appreciate you guys being those premium

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subscribers here. Hey Joey Presdy, Yes, it's been a fun

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It's been a fun week and a half being an

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HOA president. Lots of phone calls, lots of BS, and

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lots of emails. It's Brian Yanti the Greek Vre. Would

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you ever be an hoa president? Would you?

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Speaker 2: No?

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Speaker 3: No?

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Speaker 2: Probably not. I don't think i'd get voted in Gil.

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I don't think i'd get the votes needed.

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Speaker 1: There was only four people that voted. I voted for myself, shocker.

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But I do like to get things done, and that's

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what we do here.

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Speaker 3: That's who you need.

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Speaker 2: Someone like that. I'm not good at that. I'm not

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good at that. That's exactly what you need. Someone like

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you that's on top of things. Make sure that things

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get done. Seriously, that you make sure we get.

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Speaker 1: Those sharp bets are the Caesar from the west Gate

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super Book already sent me a tax. I'm gonna give

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you guys those bets, not only for college basketball but

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also the college football playoff. Today. Vierre is gonna coach

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by some of those, but I'm gonna let him go

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and just give you guys a preview of what this

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Saturday Slate looks like. We got college basketball, we got NFL,

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we got college football Playoff. Anything else you guys are

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betting right now, right before Christmas?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, real quickly, I just sent out a four

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percent play and you guys can have it. It's my

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only NHL play so far, so no package or anything

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like that.

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Speaker 3: It's Buffalo. We bet Buffalo Sabers.

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Speaker 2: We bet them three different times, so I don't know

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if there's some injuries or what's going on. I'm not

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I'm doing the handcap of myself on the NHL. I

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don't even have power ratings for that, but yeah, we

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bet Buffalo for minus one sixty. The last bet I

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just placed was at minus one seventy four, so it

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was three different times, one sixty, one sixty five, then

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one seventy four, so I doubt it'll be there, probably

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about up to one eighty at most of the sharp shops.

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Speaker 3: So we're on Buffalo.

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Speaker 2: In the NHL, that's an you know, for the different

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smaller market sports. Now in the NFL, here's what we got.

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Let's just start off with the early game first, and

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that's Philadelphia and Washington.

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Speaker 3: No surprise books are gonna end up.

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Speaker 2: Needing Washington, mostly because of all the exotic risks, a

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ton of parlays and teasers, with Philadelphia one of the

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most heavily teased games already locking into Sunday's action, so

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they're using philadelp on moneyline parlays with Sunday and with

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teasers with Sunday's action, and again, if Washington could sneak

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in there and get a money line win, that would

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wipe out so much of the risk going into the

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later game because in the later game there's two way

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action and it's no surprise these two just played two

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weeks ago, really close game, and it's another point flip

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type of game, mostly because of the injuries on the

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green Bay side.

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Speaker 3: Otherwise, power ratings reflect green.

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Speaker 2: Bay should be the favorite, but with the injury situation,

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that's why this line has flipped since the look Ahead,

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which had green Bay as high as a three point favorite.

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So John Murray and the guys over at Westgate had

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green Bay as a three point favorite in.

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Speaker 3: The look Ahead. They are now one point dogs.

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Speaker 2: I like them on a teaser they were at one

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and a half two yesterday.

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Speaker 3: I talked about that.

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Speaker 2: I thought that offered a lot of value, especially when

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coupled with the fact the under got steamed. So it

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may not reflect that in the betting line, but the

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under is a very sharp move. There's just so much

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over money from recreational betters that that just helped manage

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risk for the books. Otherwise you'd be looking at probably

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a forty four forty four and a half on that total.

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So two way action on the side Green Bay in

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Chicago over from the public, under from the wise guys,

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and then again Philadelphia and Washington. No surprise, Philadelphia is

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the signed from the public. Nothing yet on the total.

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They're betting it over. As far as the recreational betters,

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college football playoff first round, all three games getting bet

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over by the public, So regardless of whether they're taking

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the favorite or.

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Speaker 3: The dog, they're doing it with the over.

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Speaker 2: They're teasing it with the over also, so they like

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all three overs.

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Speaker 3: If you look at the totals on.

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Speaker 2: A ODSO logic right now, you'll notice the market's not

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reflecting that. In fact, it's showing us the opposite it.

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Oregon total opened at about fifty to fifty and a half.

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That's down the forty six. Texas A and M and

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Miami opened about fifty one and a half fifty two,

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that's down the forty eight, and even Mississippi and Tulane,

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which opened fifty seven fifty seven and a half.

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Speaker 3: It's sitting right there.

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Speaker 2: So obviously anytime that the total's moving up because of

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public money, there's some sharp betting the under. That's the

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side daylight. That's usually the case anyway. But we're just

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looking at three independent, standalone games, so the volumes a

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lot heavier sides. Oregon and Mississippi both one sided, no surprise,

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like they're betting Oregon in Mississippi blindly. The spreads irrelevant.

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It's the A and M and Miami game that you're

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seeing good two way action now that it's sitting at

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that key number of three. Anyone that could read the

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line or let you know, Miami was the sign that

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the sharps took as soon as the line opened. Just

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like Oklahoma yesterday. They liked the Oklahoma side that was

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one of the first ones that got steamed. Miami was

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one of the first that got steamed as well.

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Speaker 3: They took them at four, took them at three and

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a half.

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Speaker 2: That's why you're looking at three right now. Personally, my

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power ratings show that Miami is the higher power rated team.

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So the rankings have Miami tenth and Texas A and

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M seventh. I have Texas A and M seventeenth, and

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I have the Hurricanes at like thirteen. So I have

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Miami as the better team.

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Speaker 4: Again.

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Speaker 2: When the market reflects it, I feel more confident. When

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it doesn't, I worry a little bit. Like I stayed

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off of Alabama yesterday because my numbers showed Alabama was

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the side, but I had to respect the market, which

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made Oklahoma.

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Speaker 3: Go do favorite, So I kind of sat that one out.

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Speaker 2: But here my numbers and what the market's doing do

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support each other as far as the Miami side, So sorry.

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Speaker 3: Not to go along.

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Speaker 2: And finally, in the FCS playoffs, Illinois State.

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Speaker 3: Got steamed. They were actually adult.

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Speaker 2: They're now the favorite, but we're seeing it will take

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back because that was up to like two and a

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half yesterday, it's back down the one and a half.

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Speaker 3: So sorry not to.

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Speaker 2: Go off on my rants kill, but just want a

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couple of one NFL for you guys with some detail.

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Speaker 1: No, absolutely, VR. We love these rants and that's because

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we get tons of good information. I was waiting to

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jump intil after we had at least one hundred likes

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from the YouTube channel and at least a thousand people

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watching live, which we are here. We're gonna get into

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all of those questions, whether it's college Football Playoffs NFL

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with Teddy covers. We're gonna get into college basketball questions

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with Steve Meryll VR. I have a question for you though.

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You mentioned the Eagles, and then Art de Caesar said

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the Eagles, they're gonna need the Redskins because of all

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the Eagles teasers and of course money line bets. I

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am kind of in a conundrum. I have one survivor,

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one little tiny survivor, not the big money league, but

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still one hundred thousand dollars to the winner. It is

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a double pick week through the rest of the season.

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I got Houston. That's easy, that's a no brainer. I

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love Houston anyway. This week the Raiders versus that defense.

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My second options is the Eagles, but I don't like

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taking those divisional road favorites. And then my third option

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is the Saints against the Jets. If you had to pick,

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would you take the Eagles on the road in the

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division or the Saints to get a third win in

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the row? All right?

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Speaker 2: Eagles power rated I have them as eight point favorites

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on a neutral. Okay, eight point favorites on a neutral.

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The Saints are who are they playing again? Saints and

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the Jets so it's at New Orleans that one.

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Speaker 3: I have New Orleans.

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Speaker 2: I've two to that, so they're minus three and the

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Jets at New Orleans should be a three and a

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half point favorite on a neutral three and a half

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four add in the home field, I would take Philly,

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kel I would take Philly really.

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Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, I'm nervous. Okay, all right, I'm gonna

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look at it a little bit.

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Speaker 2: More saying it because I don't like that, especially its

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falls on the teaser, like everyone's teasing me. But just

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because of what the power ratings show that I think

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they bit the Eagles don't cover. I think they have

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the higher probability of winning that game. And looking at

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the Saints public action here and how the line moves again,

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I would go Eagles. I would go Eagles scale. I

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would go Eagles with no regrets.

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Speaker 1: Once again, this is the best week to use them, frankly,

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unless we use them Week eighteen versus this exact same team.

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Let's get into some of the stuff from Art Teser

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at the Westgate super Book. He sent me a very

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long list, including a best bet, so I always like

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to go over with VR. We already mentioned that the

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Sharps are on Miami Public and some house players are

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on A and M, so he's gonna need Miami to

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win the game for a very nice decision there at

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the Westgates super Book, and I just mentioned that they're

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gonna probably need green Bay at this point. I put

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green Bay in a teaser. Good news is I did

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it early in the week. I also have the Bears

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in a teaser. I hope somebody just wins by set

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or less. And then again, they're gonna need the Commanders

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because of all the Eagles teasers and money line bets.

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We'll get to Art's best bet here in a minute.

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He said Tulane will be a small need, nothing significant,

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but he I was surprised by this one. Sharps took

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twenty one and a half with Oregon. They started at

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twenty one, obviously, but some of them even still took

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twenty one and a half with JMU. So they took

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the points with JMU. You and I talked about this

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on my splash contest. I am seven points behind in

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one of them, and I thought, you know what, what's

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a good way to get ahead by playing the sides

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that no one else wants? Right? I didn't do so

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well with Oklahoma last night, but I was thinking about

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going both dogs today, Tulane and JMU. But he did

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say the book they booked the game to need Oregon,

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and that was really surprising to me.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Organ's legit, Like I mean, I have them top

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five for sure, and well, James Madison, I do think

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they're overvalued, overrated. I talked about that all season, Like

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power rating wise, they're barely in my top forty five.

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But looking at what the number is, sixty and I

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think the lumbers too high. I think Oregon should be

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about a seventeen and a half eighteen point favorite, and

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I think that's why they're taking the twenty one on

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James Madison. But the Tulane Mississippi line I do think

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is warranted because of where it's being played. I don't

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give them like a full home field advantage, but being

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in Mississippi got shaded a little bit. And I actually

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used Tulane on bet on it because that was the

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one dog that was actually sticking out there. And even

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power rating wise, I thought it had a little bit of,

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you know, a line value. But looking at it today

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and seeing that the sharp money did take James Madison.

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I like it as well at three touchdowns because, again

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for James Madison, this is a free role.

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Speaker 3: They didn't come into.

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Speaker 2: The season expecting to win a NASH championship like now

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getting to the playoffs, winning their conference and gutting to

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the playoffs. Now they get to play Oregon and all

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they have to do is try to show up and

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not get blown out like that to them is their goal.

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So they're gonna give you sixty minutes of effort for

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Oregon style. Points don't matter anymore. You're in it now.

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You don't have to win by sixty points. You have

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to win and stay healthy for who's up next. So

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I don't think Oregon has any reason if they're up

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four touchdowns to go up six touchdowns. I don't where

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I do think James Madison, if they're down four touchdowns,

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they are motivated to cut it to two touchdowns, like

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to have some respect on that final score. That's where

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I think the back door stays open for these big dogs,

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kind of like we see during March Madness, where you know,

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the Cinderella story doesn't ever really come to fruition, but

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in the first round, some of those teams are just

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so happy to be there and the number one ranked team.

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Speaker 3: I think you just want to move on to the.

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Speaker 2: Next game, and I think we may get that from

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Oregon today at three touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: I like the dog there.

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Speaker 2: I do like Tuwayne a little bit also, but I

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just don't have real value power rating wise, And like

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I said, with Miami, I agree with it also, I

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think they're the better team, and I fought A and

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M all season. I've been waiting for them to get exposed.

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They kind of did and had that one point win

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or whatever. But yeah, I agree with the market there also.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's go through some of this sharp college basketball

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from the Westgate. Starting off, We've got Arkansas plus five,

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Denver plus ten and a half, Grand Canyon plus three,

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Kent State they bet at a Pickham, Southern miss plus

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two and a half, f BYU minus four and a half,

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Buffalo PICKHM, Memphis plus four, ball State plus ten and

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a half, Colorado minus four, and Weaver State minus five. Now,

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not as any plays his last week, but Art and

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Caesar went eleven six and one, so a profitable weekend.

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Last weekend, he had a ton of college basketball. I'll

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go over those again here guys when Steve Merrill joins

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the show, but I wanted to see if VR had

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any of those in agreement.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, here's what we got in college and Colline basketball

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so far. I thought he said Colorado, we got Colorado State.

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We're on Colorado State plus eight, Texas State minus one

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and a half, ul Monroe plus one.

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Speaker 3: I'm just taking him straight from the account.

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Speaker 1: Right now, I'm sitting in the text because the group

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chat's already been asking me what are the needs for today?

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I'm like, everybody, wait, we haven't even hit go live yet.

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Speaker 3: In North Carolina.

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Speaker 2: North Carolina, so the Monroe, Texas State, Colorado State, those

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three are hit in every single account that I have,

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every single one, so they had the number on every one.

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Speaker 3: So those are as legit as they come.

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Speaker 2: North Carolina minus four not so much, probably like thirty

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percent of the account, so I don't know whether the

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numbers was gone, but those three Monroe, Texas State, and

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Colorado State, they're legit for sure.

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Speaker 1: All right, VRE, We're gonna let you get out of

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here and bring in Teddy Covers to talk some of

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this NFL and college football playoff. Let us know what

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you got going on over at wagertalk dot com before

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you leave.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, it's time to do some damage.

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Speaker 2: I have my Saturday NFL package up already, two four

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percents in there.

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Speaker 3: College football package will go up.

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Speaker 2: Now that I have confirmation Sunday NFL going for third

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straight five percent, big move, and of course college basketball

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will be out there. The steam sheet will be up

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also with NonStop information put in there and again steam

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room tomorrow final hour heading in the cakeoff. It's a

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great time since Thanksgiving, I said, it's now we're now

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fishing with dynamite and we're up over seventy units since

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that Thanksgiving weekend.

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Speaker 3: Things done change. Jump on board. Let's have good holiday

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and best of luck this weekend.

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Speaker 1: All right, bes the luck to you VR. Let's bring

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many covers. You guys know him from the opening line

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report with me every single Monday morning. And yes, good

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morning Teddy. I appreciate you hopping on last call with us.

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We are going to hit some college football playoffs some

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Saturday NFL not a not a great start for the

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college football playff for me. Right, Oklahoma just kind of

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well blew a seventeen point lead, which has been on

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par for my college football plays this year. But let's

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kind of break down these other three games. We got

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some questions in the chat we're gonna get answered, and then,

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of course I want to get your opinion on what

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I should do in Survivor as well.

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Speaker 5: Sure, I'm actually gonna disagree with Johnny on that. In

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terms of the choices, New Orleans are Philly, Philly is love.

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The only king Philly is beaten in the last month

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is the Raiders.

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Speaker 6: You know what I mean.

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Speaker 5: I got concerns about Philly, and I'm I'm more confident

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watching going to show off today. I'm not confident that

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the that the Jets are going to show up.

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Speaker 1: Now really quickly. Jayden Annuals is out for this game. Correct, Yes, Marioda,

347
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It is Marioda. Which is how much of a drop

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off would you say between the two quarterbacks?

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Speaker 6: Zero point zero?

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Speaker 1: And that's what I was afraid you were gonna say.

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So here we are, and I have I have some

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genuine concerns. I did see that one of the guys

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who has previously cashed and Survivor did play the Saints.

354
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I think it was on one of the Twitter accounts

355
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I follow, like Last Man Standing or one of those

356
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and so I thought, Okay, this kind of gives me

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the extra nudge towards the Saints, but again, it is

358
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still the Saints. Now. My buddy Joe is a huge

359
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Saints fan, and after they beat Tampa, he goes, Saints

360
00:17:35,559 --> 00:17:37,720
are going to win out watch and I said what,

361
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and he goes, I've been a Saints fan my whole life.

362
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I know exactly what they're gonna do. Kind of break

363
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down your thoughts on that game. I know it's tomorrow,

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but for my own personal reasons why I get some

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questions from the chat.

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Speaker 5: So, the Jets have been no shows. I mean the

367
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last two weeks they've been flat out no shows. And

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when we look at the Jets defensive injury report, they're

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gonna have problems moving forward.

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Speaker 6: And we've seen each of.

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Speaker 5: The last two weeks the Jets opponent has scored touchdowns

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in the first three drives of the game, you know,

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and when you're giving up twenty one points, you know

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by midway through the second the Jets aren't gonna come back.

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Speaker 6: For a lot of deafists like that, it's just not

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in their moo. You know.

377
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Speaker 5: The concern here for the Saints is back to back

378
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division wins.

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Speaker 6: Is this an EXL spot?

380
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Speaker 5: But when you have a first year, first time head coach,

381
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when you have a rookie QB, and Tyler Shuck is

382
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not your standard rookie QB. All right, this is a

383
00:18:31,839 --> 00:18:36,480
guy who doesn't have Super Bowl upside, but he does

384
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have win now upside.

385
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Speaker 6: What he plays six years in college. Seven years in

386
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college for like Shuck.

387
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Speaker 5: With every we played three different schools before he was

388
00:18:45,279 --> 00:18:48,880
Duddy's what twenty six, twenty seven years old. As a rookie,

389
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he's a notcher two ahead of a lot of the

390
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other guys because he's had so much collegiate experience. Now,

391
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is Shuck gonna be a Pro Bowl quarterback?

392
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Speaker 2: No?

393
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Speaker 5: Is Shuck a quarterback you want on your team at

394
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the tail end of a bad season to give you

395
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a chance to win a game. Yes, you know so, Yeah,

396
00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:07,680
it'd be Saints for me in that in that department.

397
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And it's also worth noting the books are really gonna

398
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need Washington in that ball game, and they're not likly

399
00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:16,200
to need New York the same way.

400
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Speaker 1: And that's after Art sent that that kind of codified it,

401
00:19:20,039 --> 00:19:23,160
which I thought, you know, hey, of course everybody's gonna

402
00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:25,240
want to tease the Eagles, you know, six point six

403
00:19:25,279 --> 00:19:26,920
and a half point favorite, bouncing around here on the

404
00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:29,799
Odds logic screen. All right, let's see what we've got

405
00:19:29,799 --> 00:19:32,160
for questions in the chat. If you guys have an

406
00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:35,079
FL Saturday NFL you gotta wait for Sunday NFL tomorrow.

407
00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:38,160
Or if you have any college football playoff questions, we're

408
00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:40,440
going to answer those now. If you have college basketball,

409
00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:42,759
we're gonna save those for our guys. Steve Merrill at

410
00:19:42,799 --> 00:19:44,640
the end of the show, I got a frendcheet on

411
00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:47,720
my hip. Don't mind me. It's not me snorting. Guys,

412
00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,880
I promise. Let's see what we got here for questions

413
00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:55,359
in the chat in regards to today's college football. Okay,

414
00:19:55,960 --> 00:20:01,160
let's go right here. Look ahead. Alabama is I you is?

415
00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:04,200
I don't know what to make an Indiana Bama. I

416
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,359
don't know what to make a Bama teddy. Let's talk

417
00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:08,880
about it. Did you think yesterday was a fraudulent win

418
00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:12,480
by Alabama? Did Oklahoma's absolutely choke away that game? I'm

419
00:20:12,519 --> 00:20:15,880
not gonna lie After the punt mishap and then the

420
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:18,200
pick six, I said, I'm going to bed. I have

421
00:20:18,519 --> 00:20:21,200
things to do tomorrow. I'm not watching this garbage game.

422
00:20:22,279 --> 00:20:23,960
Speaker 5: I washed right through the end because I had Alabama

423
00:20:24,039 --> 00:20:26,880
in that boggame, and I wanted to be I wanted

424
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:29,079
to make sure they were taken a knee before all

425
00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:32,680
was done. So certainly the Sooners, it felt like the

426
00:20:32,799 --> 00:20:35,599
energy of the crowd and the energy of the team

427
00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:39,440
was so huge early that once it turned, they had

428
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nothing left in the tank. And the other thing that

429
00:20:42,759 --> 00:20:45,359
it felt like, you know, at least for this better

430
00:20:45,759 --> 00:20:48,279
there was one play that nobody's going to talk about

431
00:20:49,759 --> 00:20:53,640
that was the key to the whole game. Oklahoma's up

432
00:20:53,759 --> 00:20:57,720
seventeen to nothing, Alabama still can't move the football. It's

433
00:20:57,839 --> 00:20:59,920
third and five on their next t I think on

434
00:21:00,039 --> 00:21:01,599
three and out, three and out, three and out their

435
00:21:01,599 --> 00:21:04,359
first three drives, and it's third and five and the

436
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:07,200
crowd is going crazy, and if they punt there, I

437
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:08,440
think it's a Sooner's runout.

438
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Speaker 6: I really do.

439
00:21:10,519 --> 00:21:13,880
Speaker 5: And that Frost receiver he caught two touchdowns later in

440
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,759
the game, but on third and five he kind of

441
00:21:16,759 --> 00:21:18,720
stumbled and made this great catch and ended up being

442
00:21:18,759 --> 00:21:21,039
a twenty nine yard game downfield, and all of a sudden,

443
00:21:21,079 --> 00:21:25,039
Alabama's moving and that one third down conversion is a

444
00:21:25,079 --> 00:21:29,960
difference between Oklahoma winning by five touchdowns and Alabama pulling

445
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:30,480
the upset.

446
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Speaker 6: And nobody's gonna talk about that one play, but that

447
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:32,960
was it.

448
00:21:33,319 --> 00:21:36,319
Speaker 5: That was the highest leverage play of the entire game.

449
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Down seventeen to nothing, they punt there. I'm telling you,

450
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,759
as soon as run them out that said count me

451
00:21:41,799 --> 00:21:45,759
as an Alabama believer. You know, they weren't healthy down

452
00:21:45,839 --> 00:21:49,559
the stretch. Ty Simpson wasn't healthy, and that explains the

453
00:21:49,599 --> 00:21:53,359
Georgia loss, that explains the struggles against Auburn. They're healthy now,

454
00:21:53,599 --> 00:21:57,119
the boor stayed put. All right, this is a this

455
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is a legit contender to go a long way. I

456
00:22:02,839 --> 00:22:05,279
would not be surprised if they beat Indiana. In fact, Mike,

457
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:07,400
and again, I haven't thought about it, haven't handicapped the

458
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:11,519
game yet, but my initial gut reaction is I'll take

459
00:22:11,559 --> 00:22:12,440
the Crimson tide again.

460
00:22:13,319 --> 00:22:16,400
Speaker 1: All right, We've got about forty questions about Bears Packers

461
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:19,559
here in the teaser, and that's the first NFL game today.

462
00:22:19,839 --> 00:22:22,640
I get it, guys, I'm breaking VIA's rules. Teddy. I

463
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,640
don't know if you noticed, but starting here on last call,

464
00:22:24,759 --> 00:22:27,119
especially on Sunday's Via has been saying, hey, wait to

465
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:29,200
do these teasers, and I have not listened to them

466
00:22:29,519 --> 00:22:32,279
in the slightest. I have been betting them live with

467
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,359
you on last call. So I had four Bears teasers,

468
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:38,559
now I've got four Packers teasers. That's not reality for

469
00:22:38,599 --> 00:22:40,920
most people. Talk to me about the side or the

470
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,400
total here, whichever you prefer. I'm curious to see how

471
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:49,480
this game pans out. Packers really don't have well. First

472
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:51,519
of all, they're kind of riddled with injuries, and they

473
00:22:51,559 --> 00:22:56,880
really don't have an upside. In my opinion at this

474
00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,880
point in time, the Bears is basically the Bears division

475
00:22:59,880 --> 00:23:02,839
to the Packers down the Bears. Yes, you are correct, Brian.

476
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:06,200
Speaker 5: So I have fourteen things I disagree with you about.

477
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:11,960
And let's start with the mainstream narrative that says, oh,

478
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,599
the Packers are riddled with injuries and the Bears are fine.

479
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:19,279
That ain't the case. The Packers lost Micah Parsons. They're

480
00:23:19,279 --> 00:23:21,440
getting two guys back off ir this week. Who are

481
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:25,240
gonna two defensive ends who are gonna They're not Micah Parsons,

482
00:23:25,559 --> 00:23:28,319
but they have bodies, capable bodies they can put there

483
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:32,119
it's not a complete loss at to rush the passer

484
00:23:32,799 --> 00:23:33,960
for green Bay.

485
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:37,119
Speaker 6: The key injuries for this game are the Bears receiving corps.

486
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:40,359
Look at the Bears receiving corps. All right, No Luther

487
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:43,640
Burton in this ballgame for Chicago.

488
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,839
Speaker 5: He matters in this better's opinion, And he's not the

489
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:50,559
only one that's gonna be missing. No Romeo Dnze. And

490
00:23:50,599 --> 00:23:53,160
when you're talking about, you know, two of their three

491
00:23:54,279 --> 00:23:58,799
best receivers with and Ben Johnson's been a guy who's

492
00:23:58,839 --> 00:24:03,119
been able to create depth at the receiving cor You

493
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,519
did it in Detroit. There's certainly some depth in Chicago.

494
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:10,079
But when you're talking about the injuries that matter here,

495
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:12,200
it feels to me like Green Bay's injuries is getting

496
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:16,960
a lot more publicity than Chicago's injuries. And Chicago's injuries,

497
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:20,119
at least in my opinion, everybody is impactful. You know,

498
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:22,119
why are the Bears here? They're here for two reasons.

499
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:23,799
You know, why are they in control of the division?

500
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,000
Fourth quarter comebacks capable has been great down the stretch

501
00:24:27,599 --> 00:24:31,200
of tight games. They have that confidence that you know,

502
00:24:31,279 --> 00:24:33,920
some teams develop that, hey, we're gonna win close games

503
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:36,039
in the fourth quarter. And they start doing it September

504
00:24:36,079 --> 00:24:37,880
and by December they believe in themselves and the Bears

505
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:41,160
are absolutely that team. The other reason that the Bears

506
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:44,440
are in this spot is because their defense created thirty turnovers.

507
00:24:44,559 --> 00:24:47,240
You know, I mean your defense is creating takeaways every

508
00:24:47,319 --> 00:24:51,000
single week. It gives the offense a chance to find rhythm.

509
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:53,759
Speaker 6: But Green Bay is not.

510
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,640
Speaker 5: A turnover team. You know, Jordan loved and threw the

511
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:58,559
ball over turn the ball. I think they've given away

512
00:24:58,759 --> 00:25:01,720
ball nine times. Ye, So this is not a game

513
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:04,279
where I expect the Bears to win the Turnamer battle

514
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:10,599
by margin. And with Chicago being favored on a team

515
00:25:10,599 --> 00:25:13,000
that green Bay is owned, on a field that green

516
00:25:13,039 --> 00:25:16,839
Bay is owned, I bet the Packers. I advised my

517
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:19,079
clients to bet the Packers. It's a client play for

518
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,640
me on Saturday night. Green Bay plus the points. And

519
00:25:22,839 --> 00:25:26,799
if I'm teasing, you know, obviously I've be teasing up

520
00:25:26,799 --> 00:25:28,920
to seven and a half with one and a half

521
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:32,680
still available for green Bay right now. But I'm not

522
00:25:32,759 --> 00:25:35,279
teasing straight bet. I think green Bay wins the game.

523
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 1: I do like the Packers as well. Teddy, Let's look

524
00:25:39,759 --> 00:25:41,720
at this playoff picture really quick. I just got it

525
00:25:41,759 --> 00:25:43,960
open on my phone because I was genuinely curious from

526
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:49,160
this question. So we'll get into Eagles commanders. Does Philly

527
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:52,960
even need to win right now? Is Philly locked in

528
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:56,880
to that? Well, the NFC Wildcard race, Philly looks like

529
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:58,240
they're locked in at the three seed.

530
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:04,279
Speaker 6: Philly is supposed to win the division, right They're supposed to.

531
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:06,839
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna look and see what I can find

532
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,759
for the whole division right now. Yes, they have a

533
00:26:09,759 --> 00:26:14,720
three game lead over the Dallas Cowboys.

534
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:19,200
Speaker 5: So when it comes to must wins and playoff positioning,

535
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:21,599
I really don't look a lot until Week eighteen, the

536
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:23,519
last week you pay attention to that stuff.

537
00:26:24,039 --> 00:26:26,880
Speaker 6: In Week sixteen, teams aren't. And I said teams might

538
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:27,480
have in the back of.

539
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:32,079
Speaker 5: Their minds, but is it a legit edge from a

540
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:35,640
handicapping standpoint, I haven't seen that that's the case.

541
00:26:35,839 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 6: I really haven't.

542
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:40,680
Speaker 5: So it's not something that this week I'm paying a

543
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:42,519
lot of attention to. We'll pay a little bit of attention

544
00:26:42,519 --> 00:26:44,559
next week, but really week eighteen, you want to know

545
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,559
Week seventeen, week in Week sixteen, it's in my mind

546
00:26:48,599 --> 00:26:49,319
less of a factor.

547
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:51,519
Speaker 1: All right, Teddy, We're gonna get in some more college

548
00:26:51,519 --> 00:26:54,279
football playoff talk here in a minute, I already mentioned

549
00:26:54,279 --> 00:26:57,119
you guys can find Teddy and I every single Monday morning,

550
00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:00,240
eleven am Eastern eight am Pacific. Right here, I'm on

551
00:27:00,279 --> 00:27:03,160
the wager Talk YouTube channel for the opening line report

552
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:08,880
of the NFL weekly Card. We go through tons of information,

553
00:27:09,039 --> 00:27:11,319
I mean, Teddy, just the notes Teddy sends me has

554
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:14,519
helped my handicapping in the NFL immensely. It is one

555
00:27:14,519 --> 00:27:16,799
of those must watch shows, especially if you want to

556
00:27:16,839 --> 00:27:18,440
get not only the best in the information, but the

557
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,079
best of the number early in the week, Teddy, what

558
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:22,720
else do you have going on over at wager talk

559
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:23,359
dot com.

560
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 6: So we're going good right now, guys.

561
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,400
Speaker 5: You really are swept last night swept to night before five,

562
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:30,920
and over the last two days. The NFL has been great.

563
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,480
The last couple of weeks seven to one eighty eight

564
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,640
percent NFL run all sports. I think it's eighteen and

565
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:39,640
eight now over the last two weeks. So we're making money.

566
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:41,799
And I'm in play today in college football. I'm in

567
00:27:41,839 --> 00:27:44,240
playing college hoops. I'm in play in the NFL. Although

568
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,160
you just got that here a moment ago. But we'll

569
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:49,119
have NFL obviously for tomorrow, we got these weekend Warrior

570
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:51,960
packages for forty nine bucks. We have the buy seven days,

571
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:55,000
get three days for free, great deals right now on

572
00:27:55,039 --> 00:27:58,240
my page w dot buzz backslash tc. This is the

573
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,599
website wager talk Dot. You know, I tell you guys

574
00:28:01,599 --> 00:28:04,400
want to run bad. Well, we're running good. It's not

575
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:06,680
a bad time to get on board. All access pass

576
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:09,759
available right now on my homepage at waygotalk dot com.

577
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:13,039
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about this first college football playoff game.

578
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,519
All right, Miami's down to three. Art and Caesar from

579
00:28:16,519 --> 00:28:18,519
the Westgate super Book said that is going to be

580
00:28:18,559 --> 00:28:23,400
their biggest need of the day. I liked A and M.

581
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:26,599
Let me back this up, I tweeted. I hoped I

582
00:28:26,599 --> 00:28:28,680
could bet against both these teams in the first round

583
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:31,640
of the playoffs, and unfortunately they play against each other,

584
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:33,799
so you can't do that. I did have a slight

585
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:35,799
lean towards an M that I gave out on bet

586
00:28:35,839 --> 00:28:38,039
on it. I'm not going to probably get to the

587
00:28:38,079 --> 00:28:41,559
window with this, but finding out that Miami is such

588
00:28:41,559 --> 00:28:44,279
a significant need here, Teddy does make me think I

589
00:28:44,279 --> 00:28:47,279
should take Texas A and M out of my survivor,

590
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:50,079
right I have a college football playoff survivor pool and

591
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:54,440
just go straight easy chalk and take Ole miss and Oregon.

592
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:56,720
I know that's not the right thing to do. I

593
00:28:56,759 --> 00:29:00,160
do have a M and two of them, though, what

594
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:01,160
do you think about this game?

595
00:29:01,559 --> 00:29:03,839
Speaker 5: I have Miami in my pocket, I have Miami money

596
00:29:03,839 --> 00:29:05,759
line in my pocket. I have a free play video

597
00:29:05,799 --> 00:29:07,720
out from Miami in my pocket. I got a client

598
00:29:07,759 --> 00:29:10,839
play where I wrote up Miami in my pocket. And

599
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:14,920
I understand the case for A and M. The case

600
00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:17,359
for A and M is Mike alco versus Mario Christobal,

601
00:29:17,799 --> 00:29:18,039
you know.

602
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:22,319
Speaker 6: And I get that crystal Ball has failed in these spots.

603
00:29:22,319 --> 00:29:22,960
I'll go as not.

604
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 5: But boy, you start looking at the personnel. Great, not

605
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:29,000
the personnel between these two teams, and there's no edge

606
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:33,319
for A and M at least not in my opinion.

607
00:29:34,119 --> 00:29:38,039
And when we look at the quarterbacks, I'll take my

608
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:41,519
chances with a quarterback in Beck who's been you know what,

609
00:29:41,599 --> 00:29:44,920
a five year starter who's been in big games before,

610
00:29:45,519 --> 00:29:51,400
as opposed to Red who hasn't. And I'll certainly take

611
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:53,599
my chances with MIAMI'SD when I have the better quarterback

612
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,480
and the better defense that I'm catching points I'm interested,

613
00:29:56,519 --> 00:30:00,680
and you know from every cisco, both the test and

614
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,079
the stats are telling me that Miami is a better defense.

615
00:30:03,319 --> 00:30:06,960
And I believe that Miami's quarterback everybody as good as better,

616
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:11,039
and they're catching a field goal plus, So I'm interested.

617
00:30:11,319 --> 00:30:14,279
I'm interested in my pocket. I think the Hurricanes are

618
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:16,839
very capable of winning this bogame. And again, when the

619
00:30:16,839 --> 00:30:20,240
committee makes controversial decisions like getting Alabama into the field,

620
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:24,240
they're getting Miami into the field. Sometimes those decisions end

621
00:30:24,319 --> 00:30:25,160
up paying off.

622
00:30:26,799 --> 00:30:29,039
Speaker 1: A little bit of motivation by being told you weren't

623
00:30:29,079 --> 00:30:31,000
supposed to get in.

624
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 6: You suck factor.

625
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:35,240
Speaker 1: I do like the USU factor. Okay, let's talk about

626
00:30:35,279 --> 00:30:39,920
the U suck factor. As far as the two teams

627
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,079
that did get in that might not have right, we

628
00:30:42,119 --> 00:30:44,720
know Tulane doesn't suck. They won the Sun Belt. We

629
00:30:44,759 --> 00:30:48,680
know JMU doesn't suck. But they are both seriously outclassed,

630
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:52,079
at least from a on paper perspective, Right, Teddy, But

631
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:54,039
this week on the gold sheet, I read this on

632
00:30:54,079 --> 00:30:55,799
bet on It and I thought it was really interesting.

633
00:30:56,200 --> 00:31:00,119
Oklahoma did not do this last night, however, though all

634
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:02,680
four home teams last year during the College Wall Playoff

635
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:05,160
not only one, but won by a margin of nineteen

636
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,400
point three points per game, So that was a really

637
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:10,359
interesting one. And when they're up seventeen nothing, I thought,

638
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:15,680
oh boy, the stat may stay alive. However, that includes

639
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:19,519
JMU maybe catching a few too many points. Let's talk

640
00:31:19,519 --> 00:31:22,279
about both Tulane and JMU and whether you could get

641
00:31:22,279 --> 00:31:24,079
to the window with either one of these teams or

642
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:25,960
if you think you got to lay it or don't

643
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:26,359
play it.

644
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:28,839
Speaker 5: So the answer will I get to win to the

645
00:31:28,839 --> 00:31:32,279
betting window with Tulane or James Madison is very simple.

646
00:31:32,319 --> 00:31:37,400
I'm gonna say this as clearly as I can. Hell, no, okay,

647
00:31:37,799 --> 00:31:40,680
these teams are outclassed, all right, both of them.

648
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 6: All right. I heard Yanni talking earlier about, oh, well,

649
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:44,960
if Oregon's up four touchdowns, they won't They were not

650
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:46,160
going to be more ready to go at five.

651
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:50,079
Speaker 5: They're playing at home in front of a racous crowd

652
00:31:50,559 --> 00:31:53,720
against a demoralized opponent that's down four touchdowns, and.

653
00:31:53,759 --> 00:31:56,599
Speaker 6: They don't have a chance. You know, I don't think it'll.

654
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 5: Be Oh, let's just run the ball three times in

655
00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:01,759
the middle of the punt. He's gonna kill James Madison

656
00:32:01,799 --> 00:32:05,000
if I'm gonna lay points. Really, I'm tempted by both favorites.

657
00:32:05,119 --> 00:32:08,200
You know, it was forty five to ten Old Miss

658
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:12,279
Tulane in the first meeting, and Tulane was interested. Okay,

659
00:32:13,079 --> 00:32:15,599
you know, it wasn't like and I understand it's a

660
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:18,000
different scenario now, and there may be there may be

661
00:32:18,039 --> 00:32:20,759
over confidence from Old Miss, and obviously it's an Old

662
00:32:20,839 --> 00:32:25,799
Miss team that has gone through some coaching turmoil. But

663
00:32:27,759 --> 00:32:30,640
in general, in bowl games, as long as the team

664
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:32,720
as a coach, you know, it's one thing if there's

665
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:35,720
no coach, but as long as the team has a coach,

666
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:38,759
I'm kind of tapping the brakes on some of this

667
00:32:38,799 --> 00:32:40,839
coach and stuff. Oh the coach is gone, Oh the

668
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:44,359
coach is here. It's the players who are on the field,

669
00:32:44,799 --> 00:32:46,720
you know, and the players.

670
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:49,359
Speaker 6: There's no comparison in either of these two games.

671
00:32:49,599 --> 00:32:52,079
Speaker 5: I mean again, and we look at comps, we look

672
00:32:52,079 --> 00:32:54,000
at Okay, how did this team do when they stepped

673
00:32:54,039 --> 00:32:56,480
up in class? James madison't play anyone. Their toughest game

674
00:32:56,519 --> 00:32:58,759
all year was September fifth at Louisville, and.

675
00:32:58,720 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 6: They weren't in that game.

676
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:01,799
Speaker 5: You know, I don't think I lost only two touchdowns,

677
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:03,319
but Louisvio wasn't interested either.

678
00:33:03,799 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 6: You know here Oregons.

679
00:33:05,039 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 5: You know it's it's Oregon's interested, and it's a long

680
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:10,759
way from home from a program that has no experience

681
00:33:10,799 --> 00:33:11,519
in these spots.

682
00:33:12,039 --> 00:33:15,519
Speaker 6: Could the back door be open? Maybe? But Oregon's defense

683
00:33:15,599 --> 00:33:16,119
been really good.

684
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 5: I just checked the forecast for Eugene today and it's

685
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:23,039
not nearly as bad as initially expected. This total got

686
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:26,799
pet down. At this number, I can only take over

687
00:33:27,319 --> 00:33:29,799
for Oregon James Madison. I think it's been bet down

688
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:32,799
too far. But then again, I worry about James Madison scoring,

689
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:35,240
but I think the Dogs will take care of business.

690
00:33:36,599 --> 00:33:39,759
I worry about Tulane almost looking past Tulane a little bit,

691
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:42,519
but I don't worry about That's not an upset. You know,

692
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:46,160
if ole Miss doesn't spend the game shooting themselves in

693
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:48,559
the foot, they'll win, and they're they're likely to win

694
00:33:48,599 --> 00:33:51,559
by margin. I don't want the Dogs favorite or passed

695
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:55,880
in two games where the Dogs are severely outclassed.

696
00:33:55,359 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 6: On both sides of the ball.

697
00:33:57,000 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 1: All right, Teddy at Teddy Underscore covers anything else you'd

698
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:04,519
like to leave our audience with for either today's NFL

699
00:34:04,599 --> 00:34:06,680
games or college football playoff games.

700
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:09,199
Speaker 6: Well, I'll have college hoops on the brink.

701
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:11,360
Speaker 5: We've been working college hoops all morning, and I'm really

702
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:15,480
tempted by Virginia. Mine is fourteen and a half against Maryland.

703
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:18,880
That's three o'clock Pacific, six pm game. That's my last

704
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,360
one out right now. Got a couple of plays up

705
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:24,280
in college hoops, but the last one out is.

706
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:26,519
Speaker 6: Virginia.

707
00:34:27,079 --> 00:34:30,320
Speaker 5: Virginia has been just crushing teams lately and Maryland's just

708
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:33,239
been getting crushed lately, and this is just expect more

709
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:35,519
of the same from both these squads. I worry about

710
00:34:35,519 --> 00:34:38,719
the layoff for the cast since their last contest, but Virginia,

711
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:41,679
and of course the money's come for Maryland. But Virginia

712
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:45,599
fourteen and a half is one that has intrigued me.

713
00:34:46,679 --> 00:34:49,280
Speaker 1: I'm going to add that to my long list of

714
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,280
other ones that I'm probably going to bet from the

715
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:53,440
Westgate super book earlier, and we'll go through those here

716
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:56,199
in just a minute. Teddy, I will see there you go.

717
00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:58,840
Trent's on in and if anybody wanted to know, he

718
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:01,159
joined me in Oklahoma night and then made fun of it,

719
00:35:01,199 --> 00:35:05,119
and subsequently Alabama just absolutely rolled after that moment. John

720
00:35:05,199 --> 00:35:06,840
Murray did too. By the way, I've been calling him

721
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:08,760
Murray the mush all morning, so he and I are

722
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:12,119
not speaking as well. It is just taking a little

723
00:35:12,119 --> 00:35:14,320
angry when people mush. The side that I'm on, Seddi

724
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:16,960
covers is the best. We'll see you Monday morning, bright

725
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:20,920
and early, right here for Week seventeen of the NFL.

726
00:35:21,199 --> 00:35:25,400
All right, guys, we got about fifteen to eighteen minutes

727
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:27,400
with Steve Merrill, and we're going to get through all

728
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:30,559
of your college basketball questions. Merrill, I want to bring

729
00:35:30,599 --> 00:35:32,239
you in because you live in the great state of

730
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:34,960
Virginia or Maryland, one of the two. I can't remember,

731
00:35:35,079 --> 00:35:37,920
but I know it's over there somewhere, and I want

732
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:40,840
to hear your opinion on Teddy's breakdown of that game

733
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:43,760
while we get some questions populating for today's college football

734
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:45,199
card college basketball card.

735
00:35:45,199 --> 00:35:47,639
Speaker 7: Excuse me ask my new friend Brady. He knows exactly

736
00:35:47,639 --> 00:35:49,880
where I live and he can tell you. Good to

737
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:52,880
see you, Kelly in person, And yeah, it's a huge

738
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:55,679
card here. We also got two NFL games, NBA, I mean,

739
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:58,599
we got four major sports going in full swing. Everything

740
00:35:58,599 --> 00:36:03,000
butt baseball here on Saturday. UVA is obviously an interesting

741
00:36:03,039 --> 00:36:06,280
team because Tony Bennett last season in October, about two

742
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:08,719
weeks before the season started, all of a sudden retires

743
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:10,960
steps down, and you know a lot of times when

744
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,320
that happens, you're like, there's a controversy, something's going on now.

745
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:15,880
He was just set up with the atmosphere of modern

746
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:18,920
college basketball, the NIL, the transfer portal, all that junk,

747
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:20,480
and I think the reason he did it at the

748
00:36:20,559 --> 00:36:23,360
last moment is because he wanted his assistant coach to

749
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:25,679
get a shot to run the team, which he did last.

750
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:26,599
Speaker 4: Year, but it didn't go great.

751
00:36:27,119 --> 00:36:30,519
Speaker 7: Ryan Odum, the VCU coach, is now the new Virginia

752
00:36:30,559 --> 00:36:33,239
coach this season, and Virginia is off to a nine

753
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:36,280
to one start. As Teddy said, they're playing Maryland today.

754
00:36:36,559 --> 00:36:38,880
I've got a better project. You like a seventeen point win.

755
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:41,119
And this isn't your slow down Virginia team like in

756
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:43,440
year's past. So they've been routinely putting up eighty five

757
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:45,000
to ninety points on average this season.

758
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:48,880
Speaker 1: All right, Steve, I'm gonna go through some of these

759
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:50,760
sharp college basketball because I like to do it a

760
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:52,280
couple of different times in the show. I know everybody

761
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:54,960
pops in and out at different times, and of course

762
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:57,440
one of our insiders is asking for it. WT dot

763
00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:01,559
buzz backslash Insiders. If you guys are looking to join

764
00:37:01,679 --> 00:37:03,440
two dollars in ninety nine cents a month to get

765
00:37:03,559 --> 00:37:06,880
premium access to everything wager talk All right ready, Steve

766
00:37:07,079 --> 00:37:10,599
Arkansas plus five, Denver plus ten and a half, Grand

767
00:37:10,639 --> 00:37:15,000
Canyon plus three, Kent State, Pickham, Southern Myths plus two

768
00:37:15,039 --> 00:37:17,840
and a half, Florida International minus four and a half,

769
00:37:18,159 --> 00:37:22,079
Buffalo Pickham Memphis plus four, ball State plus ten and

770
00:37:22,159 --> 00:37:25,760
a half, Colorado minus four, and Weaber State minus five.

771
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:29,280
Do any of those games strike your interest?

772
00:37:30,679 --> 00:37:33,880
Speaker 7: Nothing particular, but I will talk about the Memphis Mississippi

773
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:35,760
State game. I think that's one of the better matchups

774
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:37,480
in that list. Who got a lot of those mid

775
00:37:37,599 --> 00:37:39,159
You know that look the sharp money loves to play

776
00:37:39,199 --> 00:37:41,679
the small college mid major teams. I don't disagree, but

777
00:37:42,159 --> 00:37:44,519
I focus more in recent years on the big boys.

778
00:37:44,559 --> 00:37:47,239
I think you get a cleaner handicap. I use the

779
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:49,239
analogy of horse racing. I like to play, you know,

780
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:52,519
the bigger tracks. You just get you get Class A opponents,

781
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:55,800
and Memphis and Mississippi State both Top one hundred teams

782
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:58,519
if you will both bubble teams this season, and this

783
00:37:58,599 --> 00:38:01,119
would be a pretty good game. Today, I'm really a

784
00:38:01,119 --> 00:38:03,239
close game. I make it basically a pick them here

785
00:38:03,599 --> 00:38:06,679
in this matchup, and I look at the matchup itself.

786
00:38:06,679 --> 00:38:08,800
Both teams played a moderate pace. But the one edge

787
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:11,320
at Memphis has they're a really good offensive rebounding team.

788
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:13,280
I think that's going to give them extra chances, and

789
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:16,320
they're also the better defensive team in this game. Whenever

790
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:18,440
I get two teams, they're kind of equally matched as

791
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:20,599
far as the points spread in the projection. I look

792
00:38:20,639 --> 00:38:22,559
for edges like that, and another little sneaky edge that

793
00:38:22,559 --> 00:38:24,960
you can look when you're handicapping college basketball is free

794
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:28,320
throw rate. Memphis's biggest problem this year has been allowing

795
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:30,840
opponents to score from the free throw line. They're one

796
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:32,480
of the worst of the country. Their opponents get over

797
00:38:32,559 --> 00:38:34,880
forty three percent of their total points from the free

798
00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:37,519
throw line. Guess what, Mississippi State does not get many

799
00:38:37,519 --> 00:38:39,199
points from the free throw line. It does not get

800
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:41,760
their often. I like the match up here for Memphis

801
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:43,039
today on Saturday.

802
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:46,280
Speaker 1: Okay, Art the Caesar every single week gives me a

803
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:49,880
best bet from behind the counter at the Westgates super

804
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:53,119
Book and every single week you argue against him.

805
00:38:53,159 --> 00:38:53,800
Speaker 4: I know did he win?

806
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:55,440
Speaker 7: I know, I know he was wrong with Dayton two

807
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:57,920
weeks ago. What was it last week killing I don't.

808
00:38:57,840 --> 00:38:59,639
Speaker 1: Remember, but I had to laugh because it was it

809
00:38:59,639 --> 00:39:03,039
wrong so of Tyler Torrez here, which is why I

810
00:39:03,079 --> 00:39:05,639
b'reing in Tyler like Saint John's money line. Well, guess

811
00:39:05,639 --> 00:39:08,719
who likes Kentucky money line art to Caesar, ooh.

812
00:39:08,599 --> 00:39:10,039
Speaker 4: He's on Kentucky. Yeah.

813
00:39:10,079 --> 00:39:12,239
Speaker 7: So I actually had a best bet last Saturday a

814
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:14,360
week ago when we last talked on Kentucky. That was

815
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:16,760
my top play in college hoops all of last Saturday,

816
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:18,679
and we talked about it here on the show. I

817
00:39:18,679 --> 00:39:21,039
gave that to everybody for free. Actually that's twelve point

818
00:39:21,079 --> 00:39:23,320
went over Indiana and if you were called Kelly. One

819
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:25,280
thing I did say in that breakdown last week was

820
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:28,119
that Kentucky might be turning the corner? Is it time

821
00:39:28,159 --> 00:39:30,079
to trust Kentucky? And I know that's always a big

822
00:39:30,159 --> 00:39:31,280
if because.

823
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:31,920
Speaker 4: This is a team.

824
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:34,000
Speaker 7: Even head coach Mark Pope said about a month ago,

825
00:39:34,039 --> 00:39:36,519
I've done a terrible job coaching. Love it when a

826
00:39:36,559 --> 00:39:38,760
coach says that, and he said it because he has

827
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:41,119
a payroll of over like twenty million dollars with this

828
00:39:41,199 --> 00:39:45,320
current roster at UK. So my point is they're very talented,

829
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:48,239
but we haven't necessarily seen it show itself on the

830
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:51,719
court yet. I liked him last week against Indiana. They've

831
00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:54,360
been off for a full week since I'm in agreement

832
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:56,440
with Art this week. This is a very good Saint

833
00:39:56,480 --> 00:39:59,360
John's team as far as the matchup goes. Saint John's

834
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:02,000
plays great D defense, not quite as good as last year.

835
00:40:02,039 --> 00:40:03,719
I ranked them as like the second best defense in

836
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:05,760
the country last year. I've got him like top fifteen

837
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:08,760
right now. But they're not a great rebounding team, and

838
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:10,440
I think that could be the difference in this game.

839
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:13,639
Both teams don't give up much from three point range,

840
00:40:13,639 --> 00:40:15,360
so this is going to be teams scoring down low

841
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:17,360
from two point range. They both do that well, they

842
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:19,639
defend it well. Maybe a little bit of a sneaky

843
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:21,880
under in this game also, under could be a way

844
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:24,159
to play this. I think one of the reasons Kentucky's

845
00:40:24,199 --> 00:40:26,679
going to start playing better is because their defense is

846
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:28,639
going to be better, and that's something they weren't doing

847
00:40:28,679 --> 00:40:30,840
well earlier this season. And when you have a bunch

848
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:34,000
of five million dollars payroll guys each. They all want

849
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:35,440
to score. I think they're buying in more of the

850
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:38,039
defensive concept now and as I said last week, we

851
00:40:38,119 --> 00:40:41,239
might have the by sign finally with Kentucky this season, Steve.

852
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:43,440
Speaker 1: They want to know where your Christmas shirt is comment

853
00:40:43,519 --> 00:40:45,960
section Yes, absolutely hilarious.

854
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:49,320
Speaker 7: Thank you because I've been debating this, Kelly, and they

855
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:51,199
will see it later this afternoon. I did wear it

856
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:54,440
last night for my Fade to Public, but I warrant

857
00:40:54,559 --> 00:40:57,199
for both Saturday videos, which you're here on wager Talk TV.

858
00:40:57,280 --> 00:40:58,719
So it's a very simple solution. If you want to

859
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:02,000
see my Christmas shirt, go watch the three pack all

860
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:05,360
three college football playoff games and the two pack for

861
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:08,360
the NFL games, and then the one pack for all

862
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:10,239
the Fade the Public games, which will be uplated this

863
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:12,199
afternoon and includes a Saturday game. By the way, I

864
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:14,280
mentioned that in the Saturday video. And I gotta give

865
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:16,440
a shout out to my friend Candice. She's a trainer.

866
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:18,079
You like this guy. She's a trainer at the gym.

867
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:19,920
She gave me the shirt over a year ago, but

868
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:21,039
I was out of town so I didn't get it

869
00:41:21,119 --> 00:41:23,519
till January, so I didn't wear it till last December.

870
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:26,559
And I debuted it coaching at halftime at a woy

871
00:41:26,639 --> 00:41:30,800
Mary basketball game last year and he got a big applause.

872
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:32,880
And I warned some of the videos last week it's

873
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:33,519
a Santa shirt.

874
00:41:33,559 --> 00:41:34,599
Speaker 4: You'll see it in the videos.

875
00:41:35,039 --> 00:41:36,880
Speaker 7: And I debated on wearing it for more than videos

876
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:39,039
next week, so I will. One guy called it a

877
00:41:39,119 --> 00:41:42,079
nerd shirt in the comments last night, ninety nine percent

878
00:41:42,159 --> 00:41:45,000
positive comments. I mean, I love the viewers and normally

879
00:41:45,079 --> 00:41:47,159
they regulate for me. They jump on people. But someone

880
00:41:47,199 --> 00:41:48,880
said nurture, but I think he was kind of kidding,

881
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:51,519
so I didn't take it personally. Yeah, it was not

882
00:41:51,679 --> 00:41:53,760
just right back like geek comment or something.

883
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:57,760
Speaker 1: But I mean, seriously, the comments section is absolutely bananas.

884
00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:00,440
These guys are hilarious. Oh here's a good question that

885
00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:02,559
I was avoiding, but our producer Louis wanted to put

886
00:42:02,599 --> 00:42:03,960
it on just so we could hear what you think

887
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:06,880
about my Kansas State Wildcats kase State Lane twenty three

888
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:10,320
and a half against South Dakota. Is that number two

889
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:11,119
big team merrill?

890
00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:13,519
Speaker 7: This would have been a great football game if k

891
00:42:13,639 --> 00:42:15,440
State had decided to go to a bowl game. South

892
00:42:15,519 --> 00:42:18,159
Dakota South Dakota State are both very good football teams.

893
00:42:18,159 --> 00:42:21,000
Speaker 4: As you know, Kelly, why we're talking college hoops.

894
00:42:21,039 --> 00:42:23,599
Speaker 7: I got K State kind of bubblish as well, probably

895
00:42:23,639 --> 00:42:25,519
a little bit on the outside looking in. Right now,

896
00:42:26,119 --> 00:42:28,480
South Dakota is not a good team. I projected about

897
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:30,679
a twenty two point win in this game. And you

898
00:42:30,719 --> 00:42:32,599
know where I'm going with that, Kelly. If they're gonna

899
00:42:32,599 --> 00:42:35,079
win the game, get their team total up and over

900
00:42:35,119 --> 00:42:36,800
and let's pull that up. Let's pull up their team

901
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:38,280
total here as I look at this. And the reason

902
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:39,800
I mentioned is Kelly and I talked about this a

903
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:42,239
few weeks ago, and of course I had a free

904
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:45,159
play video a couple mondays ago with the K State

905
00:42:45,199 --> 00:42:47,239
team total over ninety eight and a half. When they

906
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:50,280
played the worst Division one college basketball team in the country,

907
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:53,159
and that was Mississippi Valley State. They beat them one

908
00:42:53,199 --> 00:42:55,639
oh eight to forty nine. They did get to eighty

909
00:42:55,639 --> 00:42:58,000
three against Creighton in their last game, But you look

910
00:42:58,000 --> 00:42:59,960
at those first five games that they won this season,

911
00:43:00,079 --> 00:43:02,679
and they scored ninety eight points or more than three

912
00:43:02,679 --> 00:43:05,159
of the five games. They could very well get to

913
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:08,000
the one hundred mark here didn't pull up their team total.

914
00:43:08,039 --> 00:43:09,400
I don't have it in front of me if anybody

915
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:11,880
has it, but whatever it is, team total up and

916
00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:13,519
over for K State today would be the way to

917
00:43:13,559 --> 00:43:13,920
play it.

918
00:43:14,159 --> 00:43:16,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll take a peek here, Steve, because it's not

919
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:17,760
only the team total the game.

920
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:20,719
Speaker 4: What's the rotation number? That's what I've got it right here?

921
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:21,119
Ninety eight.

922
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:23,159
Speaker 7: Well look at ninety eight and a half again, it's

923
00:43:23,199 --> 00:43:25,199
magic ninety eight. Ninety eight and a half. That's the

924
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:25,920
magic number.

925
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:29,400
Speaker 1: Really this is And also if you like the game

926
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:33,480
over it that depends on their opponent's offensive proudness. Look

927
00:43:33,519 --> 00:43:36,199
for the games over. I think they're like seven and

928
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:38,000
two to the over this year. I got to double

929
00:43:38,079 --> 00:43:39,920
check that match cal.

930
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:40,639
Speaker 4: How about this case.

931
00:43:40,639 --> 00:43:43,559
Speaker 7: State plays at the sixteenth fastest tempo in the country

932
00:43:43,599 --> 00:43:47,280
out of three sixty five and thot shots.

933
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:48,960
Speaker 1: Oh boy, look out. You don't want to be holding

934
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:49,480
an under.

935
00:43:49,320 --> 00:43:51,920
Speaker 7: One, and South Dakota plays at the thirty six fastest paced.

936
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:53,559
So both teams like to run, and I love that

937
00:43:53,639 --> 00:43:55,679
kind of matchup because when they both want to run,

938
00:43:55,719 --> 00:43:57,880
the better team has a huge edge and they get

939
00:43:57,920 --> 00:43:59,639
what we call a front door cover so yeah, I

940
00:43:59,679 --> 00:44:00,880
like stayed in this one.

941
00:44:01,079 --> 00:44:03,280
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm gonna check in the comments sections and see

942
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:06,079
if anybody else has any more college basketball. Oh boy,

943
00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:11,159
Shawn Michael, he is obsessed with his Michigan Wolverines. Found

944
00:44:11,199 --> 00:44:13,639
about this morning Michigan to get to twenty and oh

945
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:18,320
at plus five fifty? Interesting? Is that from a Seawn?

946
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:20,320
Is that from a Michigan book? They're just baiting you

947
00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:24,119
guys to have this team win twenty games in a

948
00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:26,360
row or I don't know what, but I'm gonna say

949
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:30,440
at plus five fifty, it's probably not, Steve, it's probably not.

950
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:33,519
Speaker 4: What was this twenty what was the plus five fifty four?

951
00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:36,760
Speaker 1: They're gonna win twenty games, no losses, go twenty and

952
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:37,559
oh yeah, twenty.

953
00:44:37,519 --> 00:44:39,320
Speaker 7: They're gonna I wasna say they're gonna definitely win twenty

954
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:41,000
games this year. They're already ten and oh but yeah

955
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:43,719
twentyeth Yeah, the Detroit Pistons having a great season as well.

956
00:44:43,760 --> 00:44:47,119
There's some good Michigan basketball. Speaking of the comments, after

957
00:44:47,159 --> 00:44:48,719
the show last week, I did a video for that

958
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:51,440
Arizona basketball game, and I mentioned Arizona is not They

959
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:52,960
were number one of the eight people and I said

960
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:54,880
they're not the best team. We talked about it last week.

961
00:44:54,920 --> 00:44:57,159
I have Michigan as the best team in the country,

962
00:44:57,199 --> 00:44:59,000
and someone got very upset in the comments that I

963
00:44:59,039 --> 00:45:00,800
said that, I go, look, I'm not Saint Arizona's not

964
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:01,440
a good team.

965
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:02,840
Speaker 4: They're just not the best team.

966
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:04,840
Speaker 7: And we broke Michigan down last week here on the show,

967
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:07,079
and I explained why they are the best team in

968
00:45:07,119 --> 00:45:10,800
the country. They are a dominant defensive team this season,

969
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:13,360
and I project probably a high thirty, maybe even a

970
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:16,039
forty point win in this one against LaSalle, who is

971
00:45:16,079 --> 00:45:18,400
not a good team, a sale not a good offensive team.

972
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:20,480
And we talk a lot about this when laying big

973
00:45:20,559 --> 00:45:24,360
numbers in college football, you can't bet bad offensive big

974
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:27,400
dogs offensively because they can't catch up when they get behind,

975
00:45:27,519 --> 00:45:29,800
especially in football. That's why if you've got to play it,

976
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:32,559
you lay it. But it's the same here. Michigan is

977
00:45:32,559 --> 00:45:35,039
the best defensive team in the country. How good are

978
00:45:35,039 --> 00:45:38,119
they defensively? Well, they have the number one two point

979
00:45:38,199 --> 00:45:40,079
defense in the country. They're giving up only thirty eight

980
00:45:40,079 --> 00:45:41,800
and a half percent from two point range. They have

981
00:45:41,840 --> 00:45:44,960
the second best two point offense sixty five percent, which

982
00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:47,599
means they get easy baskets all game long down low

983
00:45:47,679 --> 00:45:50,000
with their size, and the other team can't score. And

984
00:45:50,039 --> 00:45:51,880
then you've got Lasal, who's one of the worst two

985
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:55,440
point offenses in the nation. A LaSalle team total under

986
00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:57,320
makes a lot of sense in this one. And once

987
00:45:57,320 --> 00:45:58,800
again I don't have it in front of me. What's

988
00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:00,519
the rotation number on this one?

989
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:03,079
Speaker 1: I apologize, Steve, I already closed out my odds a lot.

990
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:06,800
Speaker 7: I'll scroll, but I like Lasale team total under in

991
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:08,199
this one because I just don't see how they're going

992
00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:11,360
to score in this game down low. And I do

993
00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:13,960
realize some people don't have access to team totals in

994
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:17,039
college basketball, so obviously you know the under would make

995
00:46:17,119 --> 00:46:19,079
sense here. But I like Michigan laying the points. I

996
00:46:19,079 --> 00:46:20,920
think it's gonna be a blowout, and I don't see

997
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:23,000
Lasal scoring much. And for some reason, I cannot find

998
00:46:23,039 --> 00:46:26,679
this game on the board. Odds like, yeah, I don't

999
00:46:26,679 --> 00:46:29,480
see it. I will say odds Lockgic was glitching for

1000
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:32,159
me earlier today, so maybe we need Let's have it.

1001
00:46:32,119 --> 00:46:33,679
Speaker 1: To a couple more questions before we get you out

1002
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:36,239
of here. Is Georgia a real top twenty five team

1003
00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:39,079
for usual or does the month of January shows who

1004
00:46:39,079 --> 00:46:41,639
they really are. I well, I didn't think they were

1005
00:46:41,639 --> 00:46:43,880
a top twenty five team last year, and then they

1006
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:47,079
got into SEC play and they just got slaughtered. Let's

1007
00:46:47,079 --> 00:46:49,559
talk about this Georgia team here, Steve, and kind of

1008
00:46:49,599 --> 00:46:52,239
your thoughts on them or any other team in the

1009
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:55,480
SEC as far as some maybe futures value.

1010
00:46:56,159 --> 00:46:58,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, they haven't really been tested this season.

1011
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:00,559
Speaker 7: The only good team they've played this year happens to

1012
00:47:00,599 --> 00:47:02,679
be their only loss, and that was against Clemson, but

1013
00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:04,840
it wasn't overtime, so it went down to the wire.

1014
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:07,719
Florida State not that great. I know they blew them out,

1015
00:47:07,719 --> 00:47:10,360
but they really haven't been an maybe Cincinnati. I guess

1016
00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:12,320
you could say maybe Cincinnati was a decent win by

1017
00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:13,960
nineteen a few games ago. But they're not going to

1018
00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:16,320
be tested today. They're played West Georgia, one of the

1019
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:18,239
worst teams in the country. It'll be a thirty five

1020
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:22,000
to forty point win. But a bigger picture SEC is loaded.

1021
00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:23,880
What did they get in twelve to the fourteen or

1022
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:26,360
what was it fourteen fourteen of the sixteen however many

1023
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:28,400
they have only everybody but two got in last year

1024
00:47:28,679 --> 00:47:31,480
in the NCAA tournament, and I talked about how Michigan

1025
00:47:32,079 --> 00:47:34,320
has the number one two point defense and the number

1026
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:37,400
two two point offense, and last week they were first

1027
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:40,559
in both. Guess who passed them, it's Georgia. Georgia has

1028
00:47:40,599 --> 00:47:42,880
the number one two point offense and the number sixteen

1029
00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:45,320
two point defense, and not a surprise. They have some

1030
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:48,519
size and they're really good at forcing turnovers. Though normally

1031
00:47:48,559 --> 00:47:49,920
when you're a really good down low, you're not a

1032
00:47:49,920 --> 00:47:52,559
great turnover team. Georgia takes care of the ball and

1033
00:47:52,559 --> 00:47:54,840
they turned teams over as well, and they play at

1034
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:57,800
the third fastest pace in the country. That's another reason

1035
00:47:57,840 --> 00:47:59,880
they score so many two point shots. It's not necessarily

1036
00:47:59,880 --> 00:48:02,079
that the as big as Michigan, it's that they're scoring

1037
00:48:02,119 --> 00:48:04,440
in transition. So I think the teams are going to

1038
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:06,440
give Georgia trouble and Conference player are going to be

1039
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:08,719
slow down half court teams. But a lot of those

1040
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:11,199
SEC teams like to run, like Alabama do. They like

1041
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:14,320
to play fast, and Georgia does it really well this season.

1042
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:16,880
So Georgia and up tempo games is a play on

1043
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:20,519
slower games. They're a play against that doesn't really apply here.

1044
00:48:20,559 --> 00:48:22,360
West Georgia is terrible at both ends of the court,

1045
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:24,119
but just something to keep an eye on when conference

1046
00:48:24,119 --> 00:48:25,440
play begins in the SEC.

1047
00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:27,400
Speaker 1: All right, see, if I've got three more questions, we're

1048
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:28,960
going to get to you. But first you already mentioned

1049
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:30,960
where everybody can find your fad the public video. You

1050
00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:33,719
do a ton of video content for us right here

1051
00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:37,519
on the wager Talk YouTube channel. Let everybody know where

1052
00:48:37,519 --> 00:48:40,440
they can become a premium subscriber. And what you've got

1053
00:48:40,440 --> 00:48:45,079
in today the college basketball, college football Playoff NFL for tomorrow.

1054
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:47,519
Speaker 7: Yeah you know, I give a lot away for free,

1055
00:48:47,559 --> 00:48:49,840
fifteen to twenty free plays every week in college and

1056
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:52,400
pro football and basketball. I sneaking a lot of basketball

1057
00:48:52,440 --> 00:48:54,719
videos during the week as well. And don't forget, I'm

1058
00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:56,760
doing every single bowl game and all the playoff games

1059
00:48:56,760 --> 00:48:58,960
through next month through the championship game in January. So yes,

1060
00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:01,280
you're getting every college football game, but a lot of

1061
00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:03,000
those are light leans only. And if you're playing all

1062
00:49:03,039 --> 00:49:04,760
the games, nothing wrong with that. Have some fun with

1063
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:07,519
the games today one percent of bank roll is appropriate.

1064
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:09,480
But if you want my official best bets, I've got

1065
00:49:09,519 --> 00:49:11,880
like six to seven advanced college football bowl games for

1066
00:49:11,960 --> 00:49:14,480
this next week already loaded for my clients. Those are

1067
00:49:14,559 --> 00:49:17,960
strong four percent plays, four times stronger than the free

1068
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:20,480
opinions them giving you in the videos, and sometimes the

1069
00:49:20,519 --> 00:49:22,239
video plays are the best bets. I'll give you every

1070
00:49:22,280 --> 00:49:24,400
Bowl game, some of those will be included. But the

1071
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:26,639
only way to make money is to play consistently every

1072
00:49:26,719 --> 00:49:28,480
day and to play the strongest plays. And that's why

1073
00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:30,280
the one year all access is the way to go.

1074
00:49:30,679 --> 00:49:33,519
And I do still have a special link for an instant,

1075
00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:36,239
huge discount, biggest discount of the season, gets it down

1076
00:49:36,280 --> 00:49:38,400
about a dollar a play for all Sports all Access

1077
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:40,760
for a full three under at sixty five days WT

1078
00:49:40,880 --> 00:49:44,239
dot buzz slash Steve three sixty five. WT dot buzz

1079
00:49:44,280 --> 00:49:46,840
slash Steve three sixty five locks you in for a

1080
00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:49,000
full year for about a dollar a play. Now, if

1081
00:49:49,000 --> 00:49:50,559
you want to start smaller, get a weekly or a

1082
00:49:50,559 --> 00:49:53,000
monthly sampler. Nothing wrong with that. Everybody gets the same

1083
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:55,480
plays that I'm personally using every day. And don't forget

1084
00:49:55,480 --> 00:49:57,239
about the bonus free play every day on my page

1085
00:49:57,239 --> 00:49:59,519
as well, And that's of course at wager talk dot

1086
00:49:59,559 --> 00:50:02,079
com Steve Merrill wager talk dot com. You get there

1087
00:50:02,159 --> 00:50:05,159
quicker WT dot buzz slash sm.

1088
00:50:05,079 --> 00:50:07,679
Speaker 1: All right, we've got forty two hundred people watching, so

1089
00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:09,119
we're going to give it a couple more minutes here.

1090
00:50:09,119 --> 00:50:11,320
We're gonna hit these last three college basketball games because

1091
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:13,320
these are the three that I want to know about.

1092
00:50:13,599 --> 00:50:16,400
Rob Christensen in the chat thoughts on North Carolina minus

1093
00:50:16,679 --> 00:50:19,360
three and a half versus Ohio state rotation number six

1094
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:21,800
twenty seven, six twenty eight, I think the tire heel

1095
00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:25,920
should cover. VR mentioned that not across the board, but

1096
00:50:26,000 --> 00:50:30,719
in several sharp accounts he saw people laying three and

1097
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:33,880
a half with North Carolina. Kind of break down this

1098
00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:35,840
one for us, Steven if any opinions on it.

1099
00:50:36,599 --> 00:50:38,440
Speaker 7: Yeah, so I missed out with Ohio said about a

1100
00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:41,960
week ago, thought they were a live home dog against Illinois.

1101
00:50:42,000 --> 00:50:43,760
As I told you last week, Illinois a team I

1102
00:50:43,800 --> 00:50:46,000
just didn't have a good feel for this season. I

1103
00:50:46,039 --> 00:50:48,119
rate North Carolina is the better squad in this game,

1104
00:50:48,119 --> 00:50:51,400
but not by much. Maybe a few points better overall

1105
00:50:51,400 --> 00:50:53,800
this season in my power ratings. And this game is

1106
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:55,920
in Atlanta, Georgia. By the way, it's a neutral court.

1107
00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:58,599
So the line looks a little pricey here at four.

1108
00:50:58,679 --> 00:51:00,320
Now it's three and a half. It's hit for a

1109
00:51:00,360 --> 00:51:02,840
lot of locations. I think this one's going to go

1110
00:51:02,880 --> 00:51:04,400
down to the wire. And as far as the matchup

1111
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:08,079
in this game, Ohio State and excellent two point offense.

1112
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:10,760
North Carolina one of the best two point defenses in

1113
00:51:10,760 --> 00:51:13,000
the country, So that is the concern. And while I

1114
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:15,400
feel the line is a little high, I don't like

1115
00:51:15,440 --> 00:51:18,039
the matchup for Ohio State. I actually like the under

1116
00:51:18,039 --> 00:51:20,360
in this game open one fifty four and a half,

1117
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:22,400
it's up to one fifty eight. Now I don't agree

1118
00:51:22,440 --> 00:51:25,039
with that move. As I mentioned, I think North Carolina's

1119
00:51:25,039 --> 00:51:27,760
two point defense matches up well here. I played the

1120
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:29,480
total here under one fifty eight. If you're going to

1121
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:31,320
attack this one at three eastern, all.

1122
00:51:31,280 --> 00:51:33,400
Speaker 1: Right, Steve right here off the top six oh one

1123
00:51:33,559 --> 00:51:37,599
six h two. Lots of questions here about Michigan State

1124
00:51:37,679 --> 00:51:42,760
and if they can cover the twenty points against Oakland.

1125
00:51:43,039 --> 00:51:44,800
I in fact even have one at nineteen and a

1126
00:51:44,840 --> 00:51:48,159
half minus one oh five available. Kind of break down

1127
00:51:48,199 --> 00:51:51,280
this one that's tipping off here in about eight minutes.

1128
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:54,360
Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, everyon's talking about Michigan and the Detroit Pistons,

1129
00:51:54,400 --> 00:51:56,079
as I mentioned, but I still at Michigan State is

1130
00:51:56,079 --> 00:51:57,519
one of the ten best teams in the country in

1131
00:51:57,519 --> 00:51:59,320
my power ratings. This is a really good squad that

1132
00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:02,480
Izzo has one again this season and not a surprise, Kelly.

1133
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:04,639
They're one of the best, maybe the best rebounding team

1134
00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:07,599
in the country and Oakland does not rebound well, So

1135
00:52:07,920 --> 00:52:10,119
a lot of second chance points for Michigan State in

1136
00:52:10,159 --> 00:52:13,239
this one. I project about a nineteen to twenty point wins.

1137
00:52:13,239 --> 00:52:14,599
I don't think there's a lot of line value, but

1138
00:52:14,599 --> 00:52:16,440
if you're going to play it, I would lay it.

1139
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:18,400
And Oakland also has one of the worst two point

1140
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:21,239
defenses in the country. I think Michigan State's going to

1141
00:52:21,239 --> 00:52:23,880
be able to score fairly easy in this game. And

1142
00:52:23,960 --> 00:52:25,920
if you want to stay away from that big point spread,

1143
00:52:25,960 --> 00:52:28,280
just once again play the team total over eighty six

1144
00:52:28,280 --> 00:52:29,840
and a half with Michigan State.

1145
00:52:30,639 --> 00:52:33,159
Speaker 1: All right, anything you'd like to leave our audience with

1146
00:52:33,239 --> 00:52:38,360
any other games that possibly might make your card or narrowly.

1147
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:40,519
Speaker 4: Just missed now we touched on most of them in

1148
00:52:40,559 --> 00:52:41,199
college hoops.

1149
00:52:41,239 --> 00:52:43,320
Speaker 7: You know I tread lightly this week in college hoops,

1150
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:44,719
a lot of teams have been off for the exam

1151
00:52:44,760 --> 00:52:46,519
breaks they have the holiday breaks. That's why it's a

1152
00:52:46,519 --> 00:52:50,159
smaller card today than we normally see. But as I mentioned,

1153
00:52:50,159 --> 00:52:52,159
with like Kansas State or Michigan State, I really like

1154
00:52:52,199 --> 00:52:54,679
starting to utilized team totals. I don't release them to

1155
00:52:54,719 --> 00:52:56,400
my clients because a lot of books don't have the

1156
00:52:56,480 --> 00:52:58,159
numbers still, so you know, I want to use games

1157
00:52:58,159 --> 00:53:00,800
that are universally available to everybody. But I think a

1158
00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:03,000
sneaky way to play these big point spread games like

1159
00:53:03,039 --> 00:53:05,280
Michigan State or Kansas State today and they both go

1160
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:07,360
here in about ten minutes by the way, at noon Eastern,

1161
00:53:07,760 --> 00:53:10,400
is to utilize those team totals because they usually if

1162
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:12,159
it's going to be a blowout, they get up and

1163
00:53:12,239 --> 00:53:13,880
over and it's just a good way to head. You

1164
00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:15,480
can play half of it on the team total, half

1165
00:53:15,480 --> 00:53:17,079
on the point spread, have a little bit of a

1166
00:53:17,079 --> 00:53:17,519
hedge going.

1167
00:53:18,199 --> 00:53:20,079
Speaker 1: All right, Steve Merril is the best. You know who

1168
00:53:20,119 --> 00:53:23,079
else is the best? The comment sections. I apologize for

1169
00:53:23,119 --> 00:53:25,559
any of the spambots between Louis and I. We're trying

1170
00:53:25,559 --> 00:53:28,800
to get these people under control. Clearly it's all AI

1171
00:53:29,119 --> 00:53:31,239
or some god forsaken person on the other side of

1172
00:53:31,280 --> 00:53:32,920
the world. But we love you guys, so thank you

1173
00:53:32,960 --> 00:53:35,159
for the patience. Thank you to Steve Merrill, give him

1174
00:53:35,159 --> 00:53:37,480
a follow at Steve Merrill on social media. Of course,

1175
00:53:37,519 --> 00:53:40,679
you can catch all of his free content right here

1176
00:53:40,719 --> 00:53:43,599
on the wager Talk YouTube channel. Shout out to those

1177
00:53:44,159 --> 00:53:47,920
wager Talk insiders wt Dot buzz Backslash insiders. Two dollars

1178
00:53:47,960 --> 00:53:50,719
in ninety nine cents a month gets you all sorts

1179
00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:53,760
of premium maxis, including things like Steve Merrill's Fade the

1180
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:56,599
Public video. It's already out for those insiders, it'll be

1181
00:53:56,599 --> 00:53:58,559
out for the rest of you guys here shortly shout

1182
00:53:58,559 --> 00:54:01,280
out to VR for his time Eddie covers, and of

1183
00:54:01,320 --> 00:54:03,280
course shout out to all of you guys for hanging

1184
00:54:03,280 --> 00:54:05,280
out with us here on this beautiful Saturday morning. As

1185
00:54:05,360 --> 00:54:07,760
VR likes to say, I hope you cash them, don't

1186
00:54:07,760 --> 00:54:08,280
trash him.