Speaker 1: Happy Monday, and welcome into the opening line report. Kelly
Stewart here fresh off in NFL Week thirteen.
Speaker 2: We're gonna find out what we learned.
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk little Monday Night football with Teddy Covers,
and they're gonna get right into that NFL Week fourteen slate.
Speaker 2: Teddy, I give up. I know nothing.
Speaker 1: I did take the Dolphins yesterday and survivor, so maybe
I know little something. But good grief, we'll get into
that game here in a minute. There's just so much unpack.
Who's good, who's not good, Teams that have superseded expectations,
teams who have fallen from grace.
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna let you take the floor.
Speaker 3: So the headline that I came up with for Week
thirteen was quote the year where nobody's real. You know,
all we saw throughout the course of the weekend was, Oh,
this elite team got upset. Oh that eliteam got upset.
But that's been the case all year. I mean, New England.
No one believes in Buffalo, No one believes in Baltimore
or Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Andy, Denver, the Chargers, the Texans, the Chiefs, Eagles.
Oh no, they're vulnerable. Dallas is live now, Chicago the
number one seed, Green Bay. Do we trust them? Yes
and no, some weeks we do. Detroit's falling apart, but
you know, Tampa, the Rams lost of double digit favorites, Seattle,
Sam the year where no one's real, lots of contenders,
everything is wide open.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're gonna talk about some contenders. We're also gonna
talk about some pretenders. Teddy, let's talk about Monday Night football.
This New England Patriots team is just hard for me
to understand, right, They are superseding expectations all season long,
New York Giants. After they beat the Eagles there on
that Thursday night game, we thought, Okay, maybe, just maybe
they're real. Cam'scattaboo gets hurt, Jackson Dart gets hurt. Jackson
Dark will be playing tonight.
Speaker 3: Correct, that's the expectation. He Jackson Dart's been taking the
first strinks in practice all week. Jackson dren't expected back
on the field, and that, of course, is why this
line is seven and not higher looking of course, to
the OS logic live on screen, mostly seven's out there
for the Pats. Forty six and a half the prevailing
total for this when I'm not anticipating a lot of
movement between now and kickoff. There's certainly a case we
made for the Giants and Giants to play competitive football
all year loone, you know, and with Dart coming back,
that is certainly a motivator for a losing team at
the tail end of a bad season or towards the
end of a bad season. And the Giants have shown
they can play competitively with a lot of squads. That
being said, there's been a lot of disrespect towards New
England because of the schedule that they faced. Okay, well,
the first the Giants aren't any good and second, you
could only play the teams that are in front of you.
The Pats were good enough to go to Tampa, and
when they were good enough to go to Buffalo and win,
and all of a sudden, now they get a national
TV game to say, hey, we're real, We're the number
one seed in the AFC. I could see a blowout
and I could see a competitive game, and that's why
I'm passing.
Speaker 2: And it's okay to pass sometimes, guys. That is something
that is okay. Even though it is fourteen weeks into
the NFL season.
Speaker 1: And it is a Monday night football game, and everybody's
antsy to either continue winning or not. Dallas Detroit on
Thursday Night Football, Teddy, I mentioned pretenders, We mentioned Detroit's
recent struggles at least against the spread, and then most
recently on Thanksgiving.
Speaker 2: Dallas Cowboys.
Speaker 1: Though I don't know, I said a couple of weeks ago,
I like this team as a barking dog.
Speaker 2: Now here they are. Are they barking once again?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Before we talk again into Thursday night. There's just
a couple more a couple of things I want to
clean up buys this week, Carolina, New England, the Giant,
San fran. After this week, every team in the league
will have exactly four games left. So this is the
final week for buys. And this is the one I
think the single weirdest season for NFL win totals that
I've ever had Kelly. Every win total decided by December first. Unfortunately,
this has not been a winning year for the NFL
season Winter Report, finishing with a two and four record.
The five percent Big ticket was a loser. In twenty
twenty five, Seattle flown over the total that being said
one oh five and fifty six in two thousand and one,
seventeen and five big tickets. This won't happen again next year,
and it is what it is with the win totals,
So chalk eating weasels, we got to talk about the
chalck eating weasels. The Jags won by twenty two, save
frame one by eighteen. Seattle won by twenty six, the
Chargers won by seventeen. The chalk eating weazels are the
one who are covering of late dogs winning outright Houston
and Indy, Carolina and La, the Jets versus Atlanta, and
of course favorites win, but no Tampa, Miami and Denver
in that regard. Of course, all the dogs Thursday and
Friday not just covered. They all won straight up green
made Dallas, Cincinnati and Chicago. All right, let's turn the
page on last week and talk about this week, and
that starts with Dallas and Detroit. With every week, you
guys know the drill even coming into the opening line report,
and we really appreciate all of your support. People love
this show and the comments are positive uniformly. Thank you genuinely.
But for those of you who this might be your
first opening line report, there are fours at the lines
we give for every game. The first is a look
ahead line. These are the bettable lines four week fourteen
games from last week. They call them look ahead lines,
and that tells us how much this past game affected
the points spread. The second number I'll give is my
powering number. The third number I'll give and my powering
numbers just team A team B home field. It does
not factor in situations at all. I'll talk about where
the line opened last night, and I'll talk about where
the line has moved from the opener until this morning,
so we can get a sense of where this line
is going. That gives us an opportunity for some emergency betting.
Don't know how many we're going to have today. Later
in the season, you don't see the markets moving quite
as dramatically as it did earlier in this season. The
data is pretty well baked in. The bookmakers know where
the money is likely to go. But we could have
a handful. Let's see where the let's see where the
screen lights up like a Christmas tree between now and
the end of the show. So with Dallas and Detroit
look ahead line, there was a mix. There were threes
and three and a half for the Lions total fifty
three and a half. My powering number comes three and
a half. The markets last night open three and fifty
four and we're seeing three and fifty three and a
half this morning. So no dramatic move. Pretty much the
look ahead line, my powering and the openers are all.
The opener or the current are pretty close. Certainly, Dallas
has played some good football over the last couple of weeks.
When you're beating both teams that were in the Super
Bowl last year over a five day span, you're doing
something right, you know. Obviously the passing game Cde Lamb
started Dak Prescott three on a twenty yards on eight
point two yards for pass attempt against Kansas City. But
Lamb and Pickens, the duo is proving to be as
dangerous as expected. But the defense is what's going on here,
you know. I mean, obviously bringing Quinnon Williams, you bring
in Logan Wilson, trade deadline deals and a bunch you know,
a rookie quarterback Chevin Revel's playing well. There's a whole
defensive mentality in Dallas right now that hasn't been there
all year, and it's allow want to win games, and
of course, let's not forget the NFC East hasn't had
a repeat champion in twenty one years. Dallas is saying,
we're live to do something, you know, Dak Prescott quote,
talking about this game on top where we put ourselves
right before these games. Just a place we're in, having
to get these wins against two elite teams, two teams
that played in the Super Bowl last year, last year's
last year. But we're talking about two organizations that obviously
know how to win, and we just beat them both
in two great games. So kind of going for the trifecta.
As they travel to Detroit on a short week here,
Lions started four to one. They're three and four since
longest winning streak during that span one game, last eight
games win loss, win loss, win loss, win loss, and
of course they are coming up a long Lions off
loss has been money for the last three years. Three
and one against the spread this year, the only one
that didn't cover. They still won by a touchdown, but
they were laying two touchdowns against the g Men. They're
not laying that here. Concerns for the Lions absolutely right now.
Defense against Green Bay zero sacks, zero turnovers forced, only
one tackle for loss the whole game. They allowed three
or three on fourth down. They allowed two or two
red zone touchdowns. Those are not positive signs for a defense.
You know, they're gonna get Frank Ragnu back as the
fourth time Pro Bowl center. Oops, he didn't pass is physical.
Their starting center Graham Glasnow is in active again. He's hurt.
There are issues on the office of line right now.
I'm on Ross Saint Brown. You know, a real playmaker.
When they have a Brown on the one side, Saint
Brown on the one side, and Williams on the other side,
that's a really tough duo to stop without him, the offenses,
you know, we don't know. Dan campbe quote don't think
it's long term. It might be a week or two
if we're lucky. And of course, let's not forget Dan
Campbell took over play calling duties in week ten. They're
averaging thirty points a game during that span. They're not
having thirty points of games since he started calling plays,
and they're zero for seven on fourth down since week eleven.
Dan Campbell continues to go for it and the Lions
continue to fail.
Speaker 1: All right, A couple of other teams that are failing,
Washington is taking on Minnesota.
Speaker 2: One of these teams has.
Speaker 1: To win a game, and Teddy, there's a lot of
really gross matchups over the next four weeks of just
teams where we've kind of got to figure out are
they playing? Do they caree? It's kind of iffy, right Minnesota.
Last yesterday I wanted to take Seattle and survivor and
Brett said, well, we don't know anything about this kid,
and I said, you're right, I don't.
Speaker 2: And I start reading about him. I'm like, this kid's
gonna get his doors blown off.
Speaker 1: And the first series I thought, all right, Max, he
didn't look so bad, and then he did what rookies do.
As you're getting sacked, you throw an interception pick six,
and the game was over right after that kind of
talk about where you're looking for in any of these
games where teams maybe have won two three wins on
the season, and how do we actually break down anything
outseide of a mathematical perspective, it's.
Speaker 3: Key to note that while an organization may say we
want the number one pick in the NBA, they're happy
taking the players, all right, yeah, yeah, yeah, we'll play
for hard for three and a half courters and you
guys can play defense in the fourth and we won't.
It'll be fun. In the NFL, that doesn't really happen.
There aren't many center of their games the players check out,
you know, and we saw that yesterday from Minnesota. It
was a rough game for the Vikings, no question, But
conceptually for this season, these guys are still fighting hard.
They're still putting stuff on film for their next team,
you know, if they're leaving, they're still putting stuff on
film for the coaching staff. It's not often that you
see a team just completely let go of the rope,
and I haven't seen that from either one of these
two teams. Minnesota had a really bad game yesterday, But
it's not like this team is just as I said,
all right, we're completely done. And also remember when you're like, oh,
they're playing for draft position. The better the draft choices
that come in, the more guys lose their job on
that team, you know. So there's a pretty good motivator
not to tank for a draft position, because then you're
tanking for the guy who's going to come in and
take your job. So I don't see that, you know,
the effort's not an issue for the NFL down the stretch.
The owner might want to lose, the players don't, and
the coaches don't. Look aheadline here Minnesota minus one and
a half forty three and a half my powering number
as the Vikings minus at half point. I call it
one slash pick. The markets opened with Washington as the favorite.
I saw picks, I saw ones. I see one and
a half right now, total forty one and a half
forty two. This morning, there are questions about both quarterbacks.
There is talk that we could see Je Daniels come
back this past week, this next week, and from a
JJ McCarthy perspective, the quote JJ McCarthy could emerge from
concussion protocol as soon as Monday. Kevin O'Connell quote, he's
still in the protocol as of right now. We'll see
what he does tomorrow. Our goal is he cleared. I
think of a good week of practice at an opportunity
to play next week. Now, Max Prosber, if you did
watch him as a Minnesota Golden Gopher, you knew that
he wasn't likely to be an NFL star. The pick six,
I mean it was on fourth down where a choice
to make a play. So I get it. But as
soon as soon as he threw the ball, you're like, oh,
and then as soon as he caught it and started
running the other way, you're like, well, see you next week, Minnesota.
It felt the game felt over attend to nothing, and
it was, you know, justin Jefferson two catches for four yards.
You know, fourth shut up this season in the NFL, Tennessee,
the Raiders, and Atlanta the three previous team to get
shut out. None of those teams are aney good. And
of course, you know, but if J. G. McCarthy comes back,
McCarthy in six starts has the NFL's worst QBR among
thirty three quarterbacks who have started at least six games.
You know, Minnesota has to put him in to see
what he can do. That's and of course Washington's played
hard the last two weeks. They've taken a pair of
teams to overtime and now they have back to back
overtime losses, seven game losing streak, and the quotes coming
out of Washington, oh, we're real happy, you know, Marionaque,
We're going in the right direction. It's not exactly where
you want to be, but I think put her together
a great week of practice. Well, I think we just
continued to stack these stack these overtime losses, you know,
regardless of what it looks like for us, all about
the process of the journey and the more we can
find ways to improve week two weeks. I think, I
think that that's a solid foundation for what's to come.
All right. Dan Quinn took over the defensive play calling
duties two games ago, and their defense has been better.
There are a lot only forty two points in those
ball games. Terry McLaurin came back, you know, dan Quinn,
another positive quote. You know, there was progress that was made,
certainly in the run game. We got plenty of room
to grow in that hate the outcome, but I do
love the fight and where we're at. So you don't
usually see positive quotes like that from a team that's
three and nine in the midst of a disastrous season
and on a seven game losing streak. Nonetheless, Washington pleased
with back to back overtime losses.
Speaker 1: Please with back to back overtime losses. That sounds crazy
to say it loud. A team that is one, I
believe five of their last six and helped me somehow
survived yesterday, Teddy, I cannot believe that on side kick
about gave me a heart attack. And Johnny Detroit two
he had them and I was texting, I'm gonna lose
my mind. But they got the job done. Now they
played the New York Lads. Hey, the Jets gotta win
for me. Yesterday Nick Folks field goal was I was like,
what was that? And it's still somehow Yeah, it looked
like I kicked it and it went up through the uprights.
So not a bad day yesterday for me. From these
two teams.
Speaker 3: Y'all gonna make me lose my mind. Up in here,
up in here, Miami look ahead line minus three forty
one and a half my powering number Miami two. The
markets opened two and a half and forty one last night,
the markets this morning two and a half, forty and
a half and two. Had a rough day yesterday, twelve completions,
no touchdowns, only one in exception. He's thrown for two
hundred less than two hundred yards seven times this year,
last three seasons through for less two undred seven times combined.
It was all the eight een one hundred and thirty
four rushing yards of Versts, New Orleans it went over
to in the reds zone. They have one for their
last five. They're averaging one hundred and sixty seven rushing
yards per game during that span. And remember last year
they started two and six and they went six and
two their next eight. We're seeing exactly that same scenario
under McDaniel. Teams don't quit, all right. Mika Fitzpatrick quote,
I really appreciate how much this defense has been fighting.
We obviously had a pretty rough start to the season.
Even throughout our downs at low periods, we were sticking together.
As for the Jets, hey, the Jets are three and
two in their last five games and the losses to
the Bats of the Ravens. No shame there, you know,
just some better record since the trade deadlines than the
Colts do. And the Colts were the ones that got
sast Gardner ad Mitchell and already established himself as a
solid player, and of course, with Garrett Wilson on the
injury reserve, he was their best offensive weapon. Yesterday, Tyler
Taylor Tyrod Taylor officially in the serviceable category. You talk
about folks field goal to win. There were some ugly
field goals that went through yesterday, but Taylor, so it
felt amazing. Wasn't a perfect game any means we speak
about our brand of football, I mean complimentary to one
another and all free phases. I think this is the
perfect game to show that the Jets haven't played much
complimentary football this year. Folks field goal put the third
you know, offense, defensive, special teams, the you know, the
icing on the cake in that regard, and Jets with
a chance to win two in a row for the
first time this season. My powering number says there's a
little bit of value at the current price.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of value for me here and a
teaser perspective for the Jets. I'll take it probably and
run Teddy. There's two more teams. We're just going to
get through this rough stretch here on the odds Lotger screen,
Tennessee one win on the season. Cleveland got one win
there versus the Raiders. A lot of people back to
him yesterday. I know, huge team came in on Cleveland
early in the week with no avail. I was not
impressed by this Cleveland Browns team in the slightest.
Speaker 2: I feel like they didn't quit per se. They're just they.
Speaker 1: Weren't able to get anything going against the Niners? Is
that more of a testament to this Niners team?
Speaker 3: A little bit from columb Ay, a little bit from
columb Well, it was all with Cleveland yesterday was their
special team especially kind a truly disastrous day. When you're
a bad team as an underdog, what you can't do
is take kickoffs, run about out of house at the
five yard line. You can't muff punts. There were three
different special teams misused for Cleveland yesterday, all of which
led to San Francisco points. And you can't do that.
And of course when things go went south, they went south.
You know, the Browns are in a team that's really
capable when they it was as almost the sense of
we talked about the Minnesota being down ten to nothing
in the game's over. You know, Cleveland's not a team
that's gonna rally for many double digit deficits. You know
they did it once this year. That was when Joe
Flacco was at QB. Look headline here, Brown's minus three
and a half, thirty four and a half. Look at
that total. My powering number is Cleveland four and a
half for this ball game, which tells you what I
think about Tennessee markets opened. There were three and a
halfs and fours last night, thirty three and a half
this total. That's what we're seeing this morning, three and
a half's and fours. I don't think the market's going
up when you look at Cleveland, I'm not saying that.
I don't think there's a lot of people that are
gonna go, yeah, let's lay four with the Browns and
asking to win by five or more. So that means Dan,
this is one where we can actually get together and
put to an emergency betting aarty in place. Even though
my powery number said this should be higher. If you
want the if you want Titans, you can get a
plus four. Now, I'm not convinced it's going to be
there later in the week. So Tennessee plus the four
and it's another game for Tennessee where just bizarre game
plan cam Ward forty one drop backs to pass, and
those forty one drop backs she needed one hundred and
twenty one yards and they ran the ball fourteen times
sixty seven yards rushing. They ran the ball six effectively,
and they just didn't do it much. You know, I've
said it all year, I continue to say it The
issue in Tennessee is an offensive line problem, and Ward
now has ten games this season in which he's been
sacked at least three times. The only quarterback in the
NFL history to be sacked more than more than three
times in more than ten games in a season Warren
Moon in a nineteen eighty four. So it doesn't happen
a lot. Defense didn't force any turnovers, they didn't hold
Jacksonville to two point six yards per rush of four
point eight yards per play. But remember Tennessee's supposed to
be an zero to twelve team right now. Their only
win came in Arizona. That was a game where the
Cardinals were up twenty one to six and de Marcado
had the seventy two yard touchdown where he oops, let's
put the ball over the goal line and said, let's
fumble it through the end zone and Tennessee stole at
twenty two to twenty one. There was an Arizona gave
it to him. That's the only one they have this year.
Seventh straight loss, eleventh consecutive loss at home. The fans,
you know, booing early and often for Tennessee. I think
it's good for them to get out of Town, Mike McCoy,
We got to do a better job all around.
Speaker 1: It was sloppy, and now I'm sloppy because I'm over
here looking on the Odds Lotges screen trying to figure
out what other teasers I'm gonna be.
Speaker 2: Putting with the Jets.
Speaker 1: Let's go right in to an AFC North matchup. This's
gonna be interesting. I know Aaron Epstein is excited for
this breakdown because boyle boy, did the Baltimore Ravens break
her heart? A ton of survivor backers, hearts and everybody
who had him in the teasers, like myself, Teddy. The
Steelers looked abysmal yesterday, right Aaron Rodgers looked like he
was about to be forty two today, and the Baltimore
Ravens did not look much better. I thought maybe they'd
be able to get the running game going with Derek
Henry just a little bit more. Had some short bursts,
but overall, neither one of these teams looks like they
want to win the AFC North. Let alone are going to.
Speaker 3: I'm sure they both want to. The question is how
good are they and how healthy are they and how
capable are they? Look aheadline here Baltimore six and a
half forty six and a half. The total my powering
number Baltimore six, and I gave the Ravens a prairly
significant downgrade after the loss on Thursday night. Powering number
are sorry. The markets opened six and a half forty
three and a half last night and we're sitting with
a mixed line now, six last six and a half,
forty three and a half this morning. And it's it's
an injury question for both well, certainly for Baltimore. I
mean they had won five in a row, but Lamar
Jackson hadn't thrown a touchdown past the last two. Jackson
is clearly playing. He's very hurt. A right, the guy
can't run. He has the fewest career rushing yards in
this season as a rookie, six hundred and ninety five.
He's got more than six thousand yards since then, better
than six yards per carry full career this year. Again,
his fewest in a season is six to ninety five.
This year, he's got two sixty four and seventy of
those came in Week one, so we've got under two
hundred yards rushing since Week one. He's been on the
injury report with three different injuries knee, ankle, tow over
the past three weeks. He's missed practice every week during
this span. You know his quote, I can't describe the
level of frustration. I'm ticked off. Turnovers are a big
part of winning a losing game. Turns while over giving
them extra possessions, pushes the outcome. That being said, Baltimore
is still out gaining since he by one point three
yards per play. You know, Bengals defense wasn't any good.
But when you have a dynamic quarterback who's all of
a sudden not so dynamic, your team isn't nearly as good.
And that's the case for Baltimore. As for Pittsburgh, how
mad were they yesterday? They were booing renegade. I've never
heard of boot renegade. You know, Pittsburgh now two and
five of their last seven games. All right, all know,
Townless Dealers have never finished season with a losing record.
They had ninety yards of offense through three quarters. They
couldn't run against Buffalo. They couldn't stop the run against Buffalo.
They couldn't stop the same play from being run over
and over and over again successfully against Buffalo, It's been
all week talking about we're gonna stop the run, and
they give up sixteen rushing first downs, that the most
the Steelers have allowed in a game this century, and
you talked about it. Aaron Rodgers turns forty two on Tuesday.
He looked ancient in the cold on Sunday, one hundred
and seventeen passing yards and of course managed to throw
his receivers under the bus. After the game, Mason Rudolph
came in after Rodgers threw had the sacks fumble six
and went to three three passing with a banter exception.
Rodgers said it right, we gotta flush this one and
maybe circle the wagons time for Pittsburgh. I know this
not in a rush to lay with Baltimore this week.
I'm concerned about the Ravens offensively and their capabilities with
a limited Lamar Jackson right now.
Speaker 1: Teddy, I'm sure you are not alone in your synopsis
on thinking that maybe Sam Darnold was not going to
be the savior in Seattle, but it appears that maybe
he is. This week they take on the Atlanta Falcons.
Kirk Cousins got to win for his team yesterday. Break
Down this one for US.
Speaker 3: Look aheadline Seattle minus seven and a half total forty
three and a half. My powering number is only six
and a half for the Seahawks, and I've got Seattle
rank pretty high right now in Atlanta rank pretty low.
But I don't think I have the markets as low.
I'm not quite as low on Atlanta as the markets.
Perhaps markets opened seven and a half forty three and
a half last night, and we're even seeing some eighths
out there this morning forty three and a half, still
holding as the total. Sam Donald was pretty awful yesterday.
The offense didn't really work. You know, the questions re
Sam Donald versus defenses that know him are good defenses,
those haven't been answered successfully. They had two hundred and
nineteen total yards on three point five yards per play
in a game where the defense pitched a shutout and
forced five turnovers. That being said, read these quotes about
the defense to Marcus Lawrence, and I mean this wholeheartedly.
But there's another level we're gonna reach. You haven't seen
the best of us. We're gonna cap lies on opportunities.
This is the best defense I've played on in my
twelve NFL seasons. That's DeMarcus Lawrence. Sam Donald quote, unbelievable.
We have a defense like this just consistently frust of
an offense, especially me personally, Like I hate putting them
positions to where I'm getting a sack of fumble, defense
recovering it and now all of a sudden they're down
to the red zone. But with that type of defense, see,
I can have games like they did yesterday from Sam
Donald and company and still win. Ree Morris seventy crashed
and burned as Tampa Bay head coach. It was a
disaster there. It got worse every year. His third year
he didn't make it through. A decade later he got
a second try as head coach, and boy, we're seeing
more of the same. Atlanta's one and six straight up
their last seven. The only win came against the Saints,
you know, two and five eights. During this band, Jon
Robinson had one hundred and forty two rushing yards. Kirk
Cousin didn't throw a pick. Atlanta scored three touchdowns of
three red zone tries, only had one penalty. The Jets
had nine. You're supposed to win those games, and they
had the ball and a tight game, a chance to
win they put it instead and give it Jets enough
time to score. That's on the coach, not well done.
Falcon's not a team the market's excited about right now,
and that explains the difference perhaps between my powering number
and the current market. But all we're seeing the Seattle
money right now early in the week.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I kind of don't blame everybody. Seattle and a
teaser looks pretty easy to.
Speaker 1: Take and not have to stress. We'll see how that
one ends up panning out for me. Another teaser team,
Jacksonville back at home now playing Indianapolis.
Speaker 2: Teddy.
Speaker 1: Indianapolis was one of those teams that started off red hot.
I'm not saying they fizzled out just yet, but is
that what we're kind of seeing? Did they quote unquote
peak too early?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 3: Who think we just had a bad game yesterday? That said,
the Jacks are playing good football? Look aheadline here indy
forty eight three forty eight and a half. My powering
number comes Jags minus one in this game. Maybe I'm
putting the cart before the horse with Jacksonville at all.
Jacksonville do. I'll talk about a minute up, up up
every week in my power raise pretty much of late
so I got Jaggs minus one. The markets opened Indy
minus one and a half forty seven and a half
last night. And again looking at that Odds logic live
on screen, I'm seeing one and a half. I'm seeing
one and a half with juice. I'm seeing even a
two out there for the Colts total sitting there at
forty seven and a half. Yes, they've lost three of
their last four. The concern for Indy right now, just
like the concern for Baltimore. You know, we talked about
Lamar Jackson being well less than one hundred percent. Dam
Jones is playing hurt, and it's pretty pretty clear, you know.
And because he's playing hurt, what are we seeing opposed
team is pretty all kinds of pressure on him, you know.
The you know recent trends of Cult opponents, Colts opponents
sending extra rushers and blitzing Jones and Area Peakselved earlier
in the season. Well, there's been limitation. He's limited right now.
Only one pass TIMPs outside the pocket on Sunday. That's
the fewest that he's had all year. He never scrambled
despite the constant pass rush, and there's nobody behind him,
you know, you have Anthony Richardson who had the facial fracture,
he's not playing, and then you have the rookie backup,
Riley Leonard. So it's Danny Dimes. You know Michael Pittman,
the wide receiver quote, We knew he's tough about the
decision to be playing. So we've got to keep going.
Danny Dimes. I definitely spent a sense of hot I
definitely expect a sense of a high sense of urgency
and guys being ready eager to correct what we need
to correct. No one's losing confidence, but we know what
we have to do. This stadium in Jacksonville has been
a house of horrors for India. They haven't won there
since two thousand and fourteen, and the Jags now four
and one straight up their last five. The only game
they lost during that span was the game they led
at Houston twenty nine to ten going in the fourth
and then fell apart. Now they couldn't run the football yesterday,
but Trevor Lawrence played a clean game. The defense heuth
Tennessee to three point four yards were played, didn't turn
the ball over. Now they have thirteen penalties. It wasn't
clean everywhere but Trevor, Lolawrence. I love this quote after
the game. We're happy we won, no doubt about that.
We came here to win and that's what we did.
But even to have that feeling of like man just
didn't finish clean. I think that shows the maturity of
this team. Too bad injury report for Jacksonville after the game.
That's probably why Indy's the chalk right here at my number.
Maybe didn't factor in all the injuries because I don't
sometimes get every injury on Sunday night. But left tackle
Walter Walker little concussion, Wide receiver Parker Washington got hurt.
Long snapper Ross Metsik has a back injury. Trayvon Walker,
the defensive Lynn defensive vent has been able to practice
the last two weeks. The right guard is hurt. The
defense tackle Eric Armstead was a late scratch on Sunday,
so they could be potentially without as many as five
starters against Indy, first place in the AFC South on
the line.
Speaker 1: All right, Teddy, let's talk about what you've got going
on now through Super Bowl over on wager talk dot com.
Speaker 3: Absolutely so we got a deal, I mean, flat out,
and look, I'm gonna say two things right at the top.
Number one, buying picks. It there for everyone. I get it.
I appreciate you watching the show. I'm not gonna hard
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to get on board and if you want to get
on board. And secondly, this hasn't been my best NFL season,
not by a long shot. It wasn't a great weekend.
That said, I put the work in. I'm confident we're
gonna make money down the stretch. I've had plenty of
success in the postseason. The Super Bowl prop reports have
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We appreciate it. But if you want to get on board,
today's the deal to do it. Cyber Monday and we
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Speaker 1: That is Cuba on code Cyber twenty to get an
a national twenty percent off over at wager talk dot
com today only for midnight, Teddy, Let's move to the
NFC South. We've got those New Orleans Saints that I mentioned.
They sure look like they wanted to try to win
that football game yesterday. They had opportunities late taking on
the new excuse me, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield is.
Speaker 3: Going to be a go uh probably, and you know
that's the concept. Let's just say things. The Saints look
bad early, you know, looked awful early, and then they
got a little momentum and as the game progresses you
a little momentum. All of a sudden you're liive, you know,
for a quick team. They're not quit in Saints Haven's
shown quit, you know, first year, first time head coach.
Look headline here, tamp by seven and a half forty three,
my powering. I'm sorry, I party numbered tamp by nine.
The markets opened eight and a half forty three last night,
and that's pretty much we're seeing eight and a half
as a prevailing number today. Forty two and a half
the total. Baker played, yes, and you know four. Where
are my notes here? Oh? There they are? Sorry for
uh like I scrolled down there. I have a game here.
Clearly it's out of order, so be aware. I'm gonna
have to scroll back up to it. And this again.
They're down sixteen to nothing at halftime. They closed it
within nineteen seventeen and went for two. And then and
then Tyler Shuck got accepted and I went back the
other way and they got and they got to recover
the on side kick. You know, Kellen Moore, I loved
our guy's resiliency, the way they battled. We didn't do
enough even at the very end it with an unfortunate ending.
There's stuff to learn from and grow from during that game.
But you like a bad team that's playing with heart.
That being said, Tampa, they're getting healthier. Bucky Irving's back
leading rusher yesterday, Chris Godwin, they're leading receiver yesterday. Mike
Evans and Jalen McMillian. Jaylen McMillan gonna start their twenty
one day practice windows to return. The back door was
wide open yesterday. But Tampa's defense, you know, they got
out gained by more than one hundred yards. They led
by two touchdowns. Couldn't hold it, but they were outgained
by more than one hundred yards and by one point
four yards per play. The plus two turnovers helped them.
Baker Mayfield quote, it's playoff mentality from here on out.
We're in control of our own destiny. But it's not
going to be easy. Huh. The Saints game might be easier,
probably the easiest of the bunch.
Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna move on to Cincinnati. Buffalo up
next on the Odds logic screen, going in rotation order.
If you guys are following along here at home, Seddy,
let's talk about these two teams. Cincinnati Joe Burrow Boy,
he didn't look that injured on Thanksgiving.
Speaker 2: Now, did he? No?
Speaker 3: He really didn't. Okay, Yeah, so I know what I did.
I know what My games are always in the right order.
And then yes, I had him in I had him
for time order when I went back east for Thanksgiving,
and I didn't put him back in rotation order. So
I loaded them in time order for some reason. So
that's why I'm gonna be scrolling around a little bit
here for a moment. Since he and Buffalo six and
a half fifty three and a half was a look
ahead my powering number six and a half for the Bills.
The markets opened five and a half fifty one and
a half, and that's basically what we're seeing right now.
Five and a half fifty one and a half. Has
it moved a whole lot again since he with the
impressive performance on Thursday night, they were out gained by
one point three yards per play Balthmor in five turnovers.
It's not like since the's defense is getting better, they
still give up six point one yards for play to
a quarterback they get a run, and also was the
fewest points since he's allowed all season. The first time
he had allowed twenty six since anything less than twenty
six since Week one, Zach Taylor, that was kind of
the first all around played a game we played all year.
It wasn't perfect, but road division wins on Thursday night
nonetheless never come easy. It started with our defense, Joe
Burrow's back, and since he still went only won a
six in the red zone, and Burrow was still only
thrown for five point four yards for past ten he
was rusty. That being said, they went one on eight
without him last year, since he did pull off five
consecutive wins to close out the season with a winning record,
So there's a chance they could put in something like
that together this year. It's worth noting that type of history.
That being said, Buffalo fifty one for two forty nine
rushing in Pittsburgh, James Cook a huge game, Josh Allen
took where the defense would give him no complettion longer
than sixteen yards. He was sacked eight times. You were
playing without both starting offensive tackles, So be aware with
that Bills game plan or that Bill's injury report this week,
how injured that offensive line is going to be. But
that much more line defense control the flow completely, you know,
four and four since their four and oh start, the
four wins coming against Pittsburgh, Tampa, KC, Carolina, all playoff contenders.
Buffalo is one of those teams. I see Super Bowl upside,
I see first round exit downside, and I'm not sure
you know, in a year where no one's real, the
Bills fall into that category as well.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, the Denver Broncos looked real for at
least three and a half quarters until that last series
where the commanders were able to take them to overtime
on a fourth down pass That was kind of a
wild one if you were a commander's backer. Now they're
headed to play the lowly Las Vegas Raiders.
Speaker 3: Yeah, look aheadline seven and a half, forty and a half,
my powering number nine. The market's open seven and a
half and forty half last night, and again, looking at
that way you talk the odds logic, live odd screen,
that's exactly what we're seeing today. Seven and a half.
There are some forty ones out there. I'll call it
forty one as opposed to forty fourth in the total.
So this is hard, man. I'm used just going click.
That's the here we go Broncos Raiders. This is a
rematch of that ten to seven Thursday night thriller slash
snooze fest a few weeks back Denver's ten and two
so far that was the broncos eighth win by a
single score during that span. The offense four drives of
at least ten plays and then did nothing in the
fourth quarter of the opposite of what we're used to
seeing from Denver. You know, three points in an interception
in the fourth Bonnick still three hundred and twenty one yards,
only sacked once and made the plays in ot. Of course,
they won the game on a batted down two point conversion.
Sean Payton quote. We didn't escape. We won. The journey
of a good team season involved games like this and
then you believe you can do it again Denver. Not
easy to lay this type of a price with the
Broncos team that hasn't been winning by margin. As for
the Raiders, well, the offen didn't work a whole lot
better for Greg Olsen than it did for Chip Kelly.
They already fired, especially things coordinator. There's no one left
a fire. You know, they got an interception from third
and gold to two. It could have been worse for
Las Vegas yesterday, you know, Ashton Jonty, they really tried
to get him involved. Thirty one rushing yards, two point
one yards per carry, Gino sack five times. I talked
about how it's an offsitive line problem in Tennessee. That's
an offsitive line problem in Las Vegas as well.
Speaker 2: That is one of many problems for the Las Vegas raiders.
You know, doesn't seem to have a lot of problems
right now. The Chicago Bears sitting in first place in
the NFC.
Speaker 1: Congratulations of John Hoagland, one of our producers here at
wager Talk. I know he couldn't be happier for his team.
Yet there's still a sizeable underdog here at green Bay.
Speaker 3: They sure the market target respect Chicago just yet. We
saw that last this week again, so look ahead line
green Bay minus five and a half. There were minus
sixes minus six and a half out there. Total. It
was a split total as well, forty five and a half,
forty six, forty six and a half. My priwery number
comes green Bay three and a half. The markets opened
five and a half forty five and a half last night,
and that's pretty much what we're seeing. You know, we've
seeing nothing but Packers money since six and a half
forty four and a half, so we've seen money for
Green Bay. We've seen money for the under which again
we talked about playing at Lambeau in December, we're likely
to see under money. And you know, Kayleb Williams, when
the passing game were not effective at all, it didn't
matter in the win against the Eagles. The defense forcing
turner was every week and note the first downs Bears
twenty eight Eagles, fourteen, time of possession, forty minutes for Chicago,
twenty for Philly, oh and two start for the Bears
nine and one since five straight wins, Ben Johnson, these
guys feel pretty good about what they just did. It
was hard to go on the road to be a
good team like that. They have a lot of belief
in what we're doing. They have a lot of belief
in themselves, they have a lot of belief in this
coaching staff. So the confidence just starts to develop and
continues to bubble over. Of course, you know they had
two hundred yard rushers forty seven carries, two hundred eighty
one yards. Can do that in Green Bay. We'll see
Jordan Love wasn't sacked through four touchdowns the opposite zero turnovers.
Credit to our offsive line forgive me time to make throws.
His quote, it's dur the reason where we were able
to win the game. We knew what was at stake
in this game. It's a tight race. Green Bay now
three and other last three six and two their last eight.
You know, Micah Parsons another season where we had twelve
plus sacks. That's a fifth straight year. It's a big
win for us to go where we want to go,
to win the division playoffs. This was a playoff game.
Is to stack these up worth noting impact injury for
Green Bay. Devonte Wyatt's the defensive tackle. Carter off the
field late in the game. Matt Lafleur or it doesn't
look good. That's a critical loss for our team and
our defense.
Speaker 1: Okay, moving right along to a team that just lost
to the Carolina Panthers as a double digit road favorite.
They are now taking on divisional rival Arizona. Teddy, talk
to me about this La Rams team here, how they
bounce back after a loss like yesterday. I saw a
very close snippet of the game right I watch in
red zone. We got people over and I literally turned
to my buddy Ctiago, the Rams are going to lose
this game. He goes, Relax, it's the first quarter. But
it was such a prolific touchdown pass by Bryce Young
that when he just celebrated, you could just tell that
the momentum had swung. Talk to me about this Rams
seam and how they bounce back here Arizona. I know
we've been talking about all season long that basically they're
going to clean house after this year.
Speaker 2: No more Kyler Murray, no more Gannon. What do teams
making stuff like that?
Speaker 3: Sure? First, I want to thank all you guys who
are watching live nearly two thousand and you right now.
We appreciate you. We appreciate the likes, the comments, and
the follows very very much. Thank you. When it comes
to the Rams and the Cardinals, look at the line here,
eight and a half, forty seven and a half, LA
favored my powering numbers, the Rams nine and a half.
The market's open seven and a half and forty eight.
The seven and a half. There's still some out there.
Let's do one more emergency PEDG alert, this is real.
One more if you like the Rams, so I bet
him sooner rather than later. You know, again, my numbers nine,
nine and a half. The market's open seven and a half.
There are still seven and a half's out there. The
markets have most of the markets are moving to eight.
So if you want la lay seven and a half
the current number, that will be the best you're likely
to get, you know. Firing Young after the game said
it was a humbling experience. Quote, I just feel like
this is a wake up call, something you just need
to learn from. I definitely think it's something we need,
but I don't look at it as a bad thing.
I just look at that as motivation. So I think
I'm glad it happened. We needed this. Jared Verse, I
don't think we came in as high as we should have.
You know, I didn't think we do the things we
need to do. Too many people thought of this game
as one of those games where we just kind of
jump out of your gaps, do what you have to do.
That's not what it is, doesn't matter. We've got to
be better than that. Matthew Stafford quote. Obviously we're not
gonna win a whole lot of games. When I turn
it over three times, it hasn't been an issue, and
I don't expect it to be moving forward. So Stafford's saying,
pay attention to us. We'll be fine. We're motivated this
week and Arizona. I'll give Arizona credit. You know, Jacobe
brick Set was brilliant again yesterday. Three hundred passing yards.
They didn't quit. They were now in seventeen to three.
His only interception, you can't blame him for that pass man,
that was an unbelievable play. Seven different receivers for Arizona
caught at least two passes they opening up for Bam Night.
Bam Night got five point six yards per rush. Our
game Tampa by one hundred yards at four yards were played.
They've outgained their opponents five times in their nine losses,
and of course they continue to find ways to lose games.
Tight did that again yesterday, and they do that again here.
The emergency betting alert for the La Rams won't help
you a whole lot because Arizona's haank tough. But I
feel like at some point the Cardinals are gonna let
let go of the rope a little bit, but they
haven't yet, and we have to give credit to Jonathan
Gannon and his staff for keeping them competitive even you
know yesterday, and the spot where they easily could have
laid down percent was solid. The defense was solid, and
in many ways Arizona was the better two teams, even
though they did not win the game, had straight up
fastest Teddy.
Speaker 1: One of the only teams that I was right about
to start the NFL season was the Kansas City Chiefs.
Looks like I'm going to catch that under eleven and
a half wins and hopefully they don't make the playoffs
at three to one. The Houston Texans, on the other hand,
were a team that I kind of wasn't sure what
we're going to see from year three of c. J.
Stroud waltzed in to division rival Indianapolis with a nice win.
Yet Kansas City is still a three and a half
point favorite.
Speaker 3: Here at Arrowhead, Yeah exactly, looking ahead line there were
four and a half slash five slash five and a
half total forty two and a half my powering numbers
the Chiefs minus three and a half, the market's open
three and a half forty two and a half last night.
What are we seeing today? Three and a half forty
two slash forty one and a half, So a little
bit of money coming for the under in this boggy
I'm not anticipating that to be a They're very comfortable
betting to the Houston games under every single week. Of course. CJ.
Stroud came back yesterday Miko Rios quote overall for him
coming back to having played in a few weeks, did
a really nice job. I'm excited to see how he
continues to progress. Stroud said he was a little rusty. Quote,
I feel like I knocked off some rust and him
back rolling. We're super dangerous. We lost some close games
against some really good teams. We can find a way
to win some close games after Thanksgiving. Put ourselves to
a position to do whatever we want. I thought I
did a really good job of taking with the defense
was giving me. That's the type of team we have.
I don't have to be superman all the time. And
obviously Houston's defense another dominant performance. Kansas City, well, they're
on the outside of the playoff picture looking in right now.
You know they're not gonna win the division. Nine years
straight and winning the division, you know that's bye bye
right now. Seven year string of AFC championship games. Well,
you got to make the playoffs order to do that.
And worth noting the three teams that entered the weekend
in the wildcard spots in the AFC, that's the Chargers,
the Jags, and the Bills. They've all beaten the Chiefs
head to head, so they don't get a tie breaker
if it comes to that. And of course we talked
about it a lot. You know, twelve to zero one
score games last year. This year they're one and six
in one score game. Another ten penalty showing the defense
had no sacks against Dak Prescott. They went three or
three on fourth downs, they didn't turn the ball over
and they still lost. And oh, by the way, they
also lost two more off the lineman to injuries. Jawanna
Taylor got hurt, Josh Simmons got hurt. They're already without
Trey Smith. So that injury report for the Chiefs O well,
is something to definitely pay attention to this week before
you lay pointer them. Mahomes quote, you gotta win every
game now and hope that's enough. We're gonna play a
lot of good teams coming up. We're gonna make the playoffs,
we're gonna have to win them all. That's got to
be the mindset, and we step into the training facility
when we get back to Kansas City.
Speaker 1: Okay, before we get into Monday Night Football, I wanted
to thank all of you guys for hanging out with
us here every single Monday, almost two.
Speaker 2: Thousand of you watching live. If you guys are in
the comments section, we appreciate you.
Speaker 3: Jump in.
Speaker 1: Have a question for us, we will try to get
it answered. Teddy covers before you break down Monday Night Football.
Anything you'd like to add.
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, let's talk about what we got going tonight
over at wager talk dot com. Right now, I've got
just single NBA best bet. I talked earlier in the
show about what I don't want to do, why I
didn't want to get involved in Monday Night Football tonight.
So it's a pass for me on the football side
of the equation. We do have an NBA bet available,
and of course Cyber Monday deals all over waydo talk
dot com use promo code cyber Cyber twenty and you'll
take twenty percent off a whole bunch of things, including
NFL full season through the Super Bowl, which you can
get right now, and at discount of price for one
ninety nine on my homepage. Check it out if you
like what else am I supposed to promote? Kel What
do you got for me?
Speaker 1: I think that's pretty much it, unless, of course, you're
looking to partner with Teddy for both college football and NFL.
We've still got a little bit of college football left,
of course, through the National Championship Bowl season. Teddy two
ninety nine get the rest of college football and NFL
through the Super Bowl for only two one hundred and
ninety nine dollars. That is good through midnight tonight. And
I'm sure if you used to coupon code Cyber twenty
you might be able to get a discount on that
one as well. Let's hit Monday Night football before we
leave to Steve Merrill and Wager Talk today. He's over
there filling in for Andy lang Armor, our producer. Well,
Dan Alexander probably did not enjoy Black Friday as much
as some of us did. But the Philadelphia Eagles off
that loss to the Chicago Bears. Now they are road
favorites headed into Los Angeles. Tell me why I have
a serious question here?
Speaker 3: Is it?
Speaker 1: Because we know the Eagles fans travel we know, SOFI
is going to be fifty percent Eagles fans or are.
Speaker 2: The Eagles really power rated that much higher than the Chargers.
Speaker 3: Let's talk about it. Look aheadline, Philly minus two and
a half and the total was there was forty two
and a half, forty three, forty three and a halfs
out there. My party number has Philly minus one. So
clearly I'm with you conceptually on this, and it's really
Philly minus a half, Philly minus one. The market's open three.
There were three and a halfs out there last night.
The three and a half are gone. Now it's three
total down to forty and a half. So we have
seen signifigant under money for this ballgame. Respect for Phillies defense,
not so much for their offense. Respect for the Chargers defense,
not so much for their offense, but the defending chips.
You know, it's not like this team is a disaster.
You know, people are very, very worried about Philadelphia and
Chicago ran for two or eighty one yards against them.
You know, they were dominant on the ground. Let's not
forget that the weekday games where teams are in as prepped,
weird things that happened take one Parkley update. You know,
last year he had two thousand yards on five point
eight yards per carry at thirteen rushing touchdowns. This year.
Last year two thousand and five yards five point eight
yards per carry. This year seven hundred and forty yards
on three point seven yards per carry. You know, the
fans spent the game booing and calling for the team
to fire. Kevin Petula was after the courdator. Jalen fumbled
on a tousch push and again this scores ten to
nine in the third quarter, and Jalen fumbled on a
touch push and then that was kind of the end
of it. Hurts back Patola, by the way, I have
confidence in him, I confidenced his team. I have confidence
in us when we're collaborative. I have confidence that when
we have an identity. So I think it's the first
thing that we have to establish what we've talked about.
You know, in twenty twenty four, Philly got off to
a slow start, played great down the stretch. In twenty
twenty three, Philly started ten to one and then collapsed
down the stretch or the markets expecting the markets are
not expecting to repeat of that given the price here.
But there are a lot of concerns for the Chargers
right now. You know, they're offse of lines, really struggling,
and that's creating, you know, justin Herbert's taking a ton
of hits, you know, and you know he broke his
hand in yesterday's game, and we don't know for sure
that he's gonna play. Quote. I did my best to
go out there and take care of business. Thought we
ran the ball really well. So it's cool to see
I'm treating as if I'm playing next Monday. In terms
of experience, I've gone through similar things or I think
they'll be helpful at the end of the day. You
just got to go out there and make sure everything's
good and you're comfortable. He said. The hardest part of
Tenure to play was holding out of the football. They
didn't take any steps under center for the rest of
the game. It was all from the shotgun. And you know,
if you're playing, it's just something we Needa will monitor
as the week goes on and we're throwing. Two years ago,
Herbert fractor the middle finger on his left hand at
a game against the Raiders, and they played out a
shotgun when he did that. LA likely to continue doing
that here against Philadelphia. But you make the right point.
It's going to be all Eagles games. And of course Dan,
like Xander says, he's going to the game, and he
has a four and oh straight up and against the
spread record in LA games. And that's the only trend
that matters, Dan, when you go who wins and covers?
We have Teddy a four and oh straight up, four
and oh against the spread in games featuring my teams
in LA.
Speaker 2: So it's the it's the only trend that matters.
Speaker 1: So you don't have yourself on camera right now because
I'm sure you look like a wooly mammoth.
Speaker 3: That is correct, although that is that's my usual state
of being to be fair, Kelly, Well, we got.
Speaker 1: The homer pick from Dan Alexander. We'll see how the
rest of this NFL slate pans out. Teddy covers, you
are the best.
Speaker 2: Thank you for playing.
Speaker 1: Through your flu game. I hope you feel better. Get
some rest because we need some winners this week, not
only on the hardwood but in the NFL. Hang tight, guys,
Wager Talk Today is up next.