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Speaker 1: We are back with another edition of the Federalist Radio Hour.

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I'm Matt Kittle, Senior Elections correspondent at the Federalist, and

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your experience sharpa on today's quest for knowledge. As always,

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you can email the show at radio at the Federalist

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dot com, follow us on x at FDR LST, make

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sure to subscribe wherever you download your podcast, and of

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course to the premium version of our website as well.

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Our guest today is Jacob Olidor, Chief Research Officer, Director

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of American Security at the America First Policy Institute. As

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we talk about the war in Iran, and we found

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out that the world had changed changed again on Saturday,

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and now we are days into this joint mission, this

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joint operation between the US military and the Israeli forces,

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and the questions, of course are many, and where do

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we go from here? I think is a good place

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to start. Jacob, thank you so much for joining us

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in this edition of the Federalist Radio Hour.

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Speaker 2: It's a pleasure to be with you, madam, with your listeners.

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Thank you.

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Speaker 1: Chat Well, here we are. Yes, I like to save

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this question for the end, and we'll get back to

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that perhaps again. But now we're here what's next.

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Speaker 2: Now we're here, indeed, and it's certainly I always st

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are from the position of what we don't know, and

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it's been in this case revealing insofar as in the

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lead up to Saturday, the President's team were very discreet

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about the overall objective. Of course, the nuclear was part

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of it. But in that speech on the early hours

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of Saturday, which I found one of the most eloquent

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of his presidency, he laid out for the American people

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two things. First of all, the distinct American objective here,

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which his team has since echoed with remarkable consistency, and

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that is his fulfillment of his article to Section two

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duties as president has prescribed in the Constitution to protect

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the American people against threats against them. And the rest

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of the remarks outlined the nature of that threat. And

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I was listening to that as a Congressional staff. I

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served at the privilege of serving for Senator Orrin Hatch

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when he was in Senate leadership, and I would have

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to read the justifications in fact from President Trump and

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other administrations, the justification for strikes, and that is how

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those are tailored. It's the kind of what listing out

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what the threats are. And at the very end, of course,

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he says, look, this will basically set the conditions for you,

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the run in people, to take the country finally into

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your hands and create your own destiny. That's not the

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American people's job. That's not America's job. It is for

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you that Iran. But in completing and meeting our objectives here,

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which by the way, are shared by our partners not

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only Israel but others, you will have that opportunity. But

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we need to get this job done because the American people,

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their lives are at stake here and so that I

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think is where we are, and it's been The success

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has been remarkable, I mean within hours, basically decimating you know,

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several layers of military leadership there, capabilities and the other

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remarkable piece. And this is something important for context. Yes,

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it's a US and Israeli operation so far, and you

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know we do have distinct priorities to a degree, but

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there are other voices wanting to take a bigger part potentially,

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And I look at the statements from our Arab partners

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in the region, are who have a lot of confidence

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and very vocal about their positions about Iran and the

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threats that it poses to them. And then over the

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weekend you saw that joint statement from the United Kingdom,

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France and Germany in which they say very specifically they

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will take defensive actions let you call it whatever it is, defensive, offensive,

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but targeting Iranian ballistic missile capabilities. And that's in that statement.

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So if we do see Europeans taking this action, you know,

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it's US and our allies really eliminating an existential and

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immediate threat to all of us.

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Speaker 1: The messaging has been confusing though in the opening days,

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and I wanted to get your take on this because

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you know, the President, as you mentioned, the President laid

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out some of the objectives that you know prompted all this,

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but we heard from different administration officials kind of different

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stories about why this was happening. Obviously, there is that

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existential concern of Iran getting a hold of a nuclear

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weapon or being able to build that nuclear weapon. By

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the way, with the help of previous US administrations, I

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think we must point that out. We talked about regime

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change then, and then all of these other things kind

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of surrounding that taking out and no love loss of

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course to the Supreme Leader of Iran, who has been

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the face of the leading nation, leading sponsor of terror.

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But then finally on Monday, I think it became clear

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that this was about the United States the Pentagon and

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the President making the decision that Israel was going to

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do this with or without us, and the administration said,

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if you're going to do this, then we're going to

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do the be involved because we want to make sure

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that we can control the outcome. Is that ultimately what

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this is about, No.

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Speaker 2: It's not. I think that. Look, this regime at the

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outset and to this day uses the phrase, you know,

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big Satan, little Satan. I mean, it's clear who they're

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referring to, big Satan being the United States little Israel.

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But that doesn't limit their threats as well as I said,

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I mean, it's the regional partners that are you say,

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the UAE actually taking more missiles than Israel actually in

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Iran's volleys. I mean, part of that is geographic, I get.

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But look, at the end of the day you alluded

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to the point here is that the distinction from prior administrations,

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this is a president that knows what an adversary looks

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like and understands the threats to the American people and

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takes that action when and we don't have to wait

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for a threat to be imminent, by the way, I mean,

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if it is a threat to the American people, that

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is his job as commander in chief, you know. Separate

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from that, there's the question of the state of the regime,

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and I thought the Vice President did a remarkable job

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on Fox I think it was yesterday, and I think

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his words were the fate of the regime is incidental

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to our objectives. So there is it's very possible, potentially

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likely that the regime will fall or what what we

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know is the regime will collapse, and yet our objective

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will remain taking out the threats because we know that

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they are persistent and pervasive in their pursuit of those threats.

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And even after we took out their nuclear program last summer,

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an action that we took again because of the imminence

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of that threat, their intention did not disappear. And that

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was the conclusion that the President drew. I believe based

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on the way in which they carried out their negotiations.

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They're part of the negotiations in the weeks leading up

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to this weekend. So the narrative, the justification. The context

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is very clear here, and I think the President's team

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have articulated it as well.

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Speaker 1: What is your assessment of the readiness of the people

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of Iran the counter movement against this regime. It is

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no secret that many in Iran have lived under this

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oppressive regime and they hate it. It's clear. It couldn't

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be more clear. And it was, you know a few

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weeks ago when so many thousands came out in the

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streets and risked their lives, literally risked their lives in protests,

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and then you had this evil regime mowing down you know, thousands,

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tens of thousands of these people. All of that said,

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one can sen empathize and and you.

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Speaker 2: Know and.

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Speaker 1: Want to see the removal of this regime by the

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people of Iran. How ready are they to do that?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a good question there is on this. I

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think obviously there is more that's unknown than is known.

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What we do know, of course, is the regime as

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the weapons, and we know their tactics and record. Now

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the president put them unnoticed that should they take action

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against their people, they will be met with an even

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more overwhelming response. But you know, the future of the

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country again that is ultimately for the running people. That

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won't be something for us to be. It will be

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obviously a situation that will be monitoring. But you know

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what that looks like and what the how the people

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take the opportunity and how long it takes that is

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still unknown and very much contingent on on on basically

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their own capacity and who comes up as the the

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leader they determine needs to be the one to lead

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them through. You know. With that being said, of course,

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as the regime is collapsing, and I think you know

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it's obviously no overstatement the removal of Haminae was a historic,

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a colossal change in the regime's calculus. But then also

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several layers below, you still have remnants that are no

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less vicious and seeking to cause harm and create threats,

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and our responsibility to protect Americans will will be there

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as well, because those threats will continue. So that's something

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to monitor as well, and kind of the unpredictability of

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how how the regime in its decline or in its

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weaken state, looks to escalate a new ways. But again,

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all of this I think from the I believe the

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strategic objective focused of what we're doing I think that

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these are all considerations that I'm certain we've been thinking

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through in obviously embarking on this.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's my broader question is, as noted,

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there are many many citizens of Iran that are not

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only wish for, but are working for regime change at

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this hour. But there are still many Iranians who hate

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the United States more than they hate this evil regime.

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So what does that all mean to the success of

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these operations?

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Speaker 2: Well, I think it's important not to overstate as well,

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and really not to generalize too about a country as

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large and diaspora community as diverse and large as well.

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But I think it's interesting to just as you look

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at the streets of you know, places like Los Angeles

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and other parts of our country not traditionally supporters of

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the president in arms and parading, celebrating his achievements, celebrating

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his actions, I think that speaks to a new consensus,

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or maybe an existing consense of we're only seeing now

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that on this issue, on the fact that Iran needs

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a different future, and that the president has helped the

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owning people have the conditions for them to pursue that

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on their own terms. That is I think there's some

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kind of a consensus there on that issue alone. Now

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that being said, there are you've also seen images out

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of Iran of the size of the funeral Rahmana I

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always look at and the size of that crowd. There

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are regime supporters, and as I mentioned, they are the ones,

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or at least those in government are the ones with

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the guns. But all that being said, I think there

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is also a regional component of this as well, and

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you know, populations within and without Iran that have a

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desire to see a different future for that country for

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their own sakes because they know that will be that's

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that is a guaranteur of peace for them in the region.

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So again, a lot of unknowns, but I think that,

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you know, as far as kind of the perspective of

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those who want this regime out, I think they have

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a wider chorus of support even beyond their borders, which

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which I think will be interesting to watch.

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Speaker 3: College underemployment is at crisis levels. Almost half of recent

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college grads are working in jobs that do not require

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a college degree. We have not seen numbers like these

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since when two thousand and eight. Check out the Watchdog

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on Wall Street podcast on Apple Spotify, wherever you get

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your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: What is interesting but not surprising, of course, is the

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number of people on the left, the radical left in

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this country, who have suddenly become grievers, grieving for the Ayatola,

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who has spent the last three plus decades, of course,

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doing everything that he can to obliterate Israel, to wipe

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it off the map, and whatever he could to at

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the very least harm Americans in America and elsewhere. But

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you also see kind of two different responses on the

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conservative side. The one, of course, is a full celebration

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of this operation and a lot of optimism that Iran

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will finally be dealt with. But there are a number

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of conservatives in this country who voted for President Trump

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because he promised to do what previous administration's previous presidents

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failed to do, and that was to tell America we

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are done with endless ever wars. We spent, of course,

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a very long time in Afghanistan, spent a very long

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time nation building in Iran, and the America first principle,

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of course, is often seen as what it suggests this America,

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we don't need to meddle elsewhere. Why do you think

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the administration's response to that will be ultimately and where

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do you see all of that playing out?

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Speaker 2: Well, right, speaking purely my personal capacity, I have no visibility. Obviously,

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I don't want to speak on behalf of the administration.

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I think there is to me. Well, first of all,

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I think they've articulated the objective as I mentioned, but

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protecting Americans, and I think that to me is highly

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compelling and really and in fact is the kind of

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reversal of history that we needed, because the Obama in

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particular has endangered Americans by involving empowering the iatolas, thinking

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that moderates in their midst thinking that lucrative palettes of

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cash would moderate them, would make them more, when in

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fact all they wanted was to just prolong these engagements

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to harm us. And so that's corrective number one. But

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the other thing, you know, as you mentioned, there are

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different voices and obviously different voices speaking from different assumptions

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of you know what, the present may or may not

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think this or that. But if you look at his

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rhetoric and his focus, first of all, he has said

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since he went down the Golden Elevator escalator, Eran will

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not have a nuclear weapon, that has been something he

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has never wavered from. That was on his campaign trail,

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and this is part of it. But the other thing

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to me, there is a continuum as well of his

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position on whether it's trade, whether it's other issues, as

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he stepped again onto that escalator in twenty fifteen, the

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ways in which the American people have been taken advantage

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of by the countries and have been under threat because

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of that. It's the same narrative that we fundamentally, the

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Washington Consensus is betrayed backrow America, working America, the American families,

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they've paid the price because of and part of that too,

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because of these forever wars, these expansive projects which you know,

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in their military operation, I want to clarify we're effective

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and important in eliminating terrorists, we can't deny that, But

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in their other trappings of nation building and in civil

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society type thing, you know, you know, different types of

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projects like that were completely expansive and beyond the focus

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and in a waste of course of taxpayer dollars and failures.

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So what he's trying to do here is bring the

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focus back to the American people, focus on and in

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this case the most pervasive global threat. The source of

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it all is from this regime. That's point number one.

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For number two is the operational part that the objective

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here is and we're seeing the evidence of its successes,

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as the President say, you know, faster than intended schedule time,

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you know, ahead of schedule, meeting that objective operationally in

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a very targeted, precise way alongside partner. So it's not

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just our burden. And I believe I think we will

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see if the rhetoric from our partners translates into actions,

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we will see others coming and really ensure this is

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comprehensively dealt with.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the coalition building is extremely important, as we have

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seen time after time after time, particularly in engagements in

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the Middle East. I'm going to get back to that

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in just a moment. But you know, there are a

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lot of Americans who are asking today, Okay, well wait

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a minute, I thought we took out there around's nuclear capacity,

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the capacity to build intermediate long range nuclear warheads or

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or short range for that matter, and so so why

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are we why are we back there? Didn't we handle

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that last last summer? What is the answer to that,

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and what is the status of their their capacity.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, the answer is exactly what the President said

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right after Operation Midnight Hammer. If we see evidence again

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that Iran is trying to do this, we will respond

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again militarily. He said that right after the successful operation.

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And in fact, as I mentioned, the intention not only

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in the nuclear program, but in building out other types

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of measures, other new tactics to get around it have

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only have expanded, but out of necessity on the Iranian

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regime's part. But Centray Rubio mentioned, I think it was

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yesterday this drone shield that Iranian the regime is thinking of.

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I mean, that's a whole new use of the drone

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warfare to kind of insulate them and give them that flexibility.

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So to think that this is an adversary that's just

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going to wait around and just take the punch and

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not try to fight back, I think nobody was under

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any illusions about that we dealt a substantial, substantial blow

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to their nuclear program, really eliminating its threats for the

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foreseeable future, if you include as well the researchers that

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were taken out and the various facilities of course the

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big ones. But but yeah, this is still they are

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they want to kill Americans and they want to do harm,

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and so that remains their intention, and this is the

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this is the response to that or the preemption of that.

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I should say, We're not going to wait around.

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Speaker 1: Our guest today is Jacob Olador, chief research officer and

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Director of American Security at the America First Policy Institute.

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Talking about what's next in the war in Iran. We

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talked about coalition building. Obviously that was extremely important in

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the Persian Gulf War. It became extremely important again in

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what a lot of conservatives and others believe was a

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fool's errand in Iraq with the weapons of mass destruction

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claims and all of those sorts of things. But we understand,

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you know what was happening at the time, but you

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are seeing, at least for now, Iran isolated because it had,

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let's put it in simple parlance, that nation has ticked

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off its neighbors for a long time, and the neighbors

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have had to deal with the threats not only of

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Iran and getting a nuclear weapon and what that would mean,

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but they've had to deal with the unleashing of terrorist

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groups like Hesblah, the funding of those terrorist groups, the Houtis,

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and in hamas of course in Gaza. It's it's an

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unstable region of the world. It has been for a

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very long time. Iran made it that much more unstable.

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Where do you think the Coalition building will go? Given

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the history.

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Speaker 2: Here, right, It's great to be back with you, you know.

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The so much of the foundation of the coalition was

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established by President Trump in his first term. Obviously, the

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Abraham Accord has created a new opportunity for our regional

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partners to work together. And then Israel. President Trump made

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the decision to bring Israel out of the European Command

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military structure into the Middle East Central Command structure, which

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enabled a lot of those incredible historic military cooperation you

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saw between Israel and its partners of the last couple

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of years. You know. And I think the Coalition has

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and enlarge part because of how the problem metastasized under

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the Biden watch, which or Biden negligence, I should say Biden.

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The Biden Iran policy I see as much worse than

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the already completely disastrous Obama police in that they were

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waiting around basically for twenty fifteen to come back, and

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obviously that wasn't going to happen. They had no plan,

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no backup, So obviously the problem grew much worse, and

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the Europeans were also in the crosshairs during Putin's decision

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to invade Ukraine, which was in which Iran provided missiles

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and drones too. So that allowed Europe to actually take

359
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a bold stand, which you know, obviously Europe is not

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known to do. But they've issued sanctions and then a

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series of sanctions against Iran for its support of Russia,

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and then just now recently even the EU took the

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step unthinkable, I think, to list the IRGC as terror organization,

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and so they have. Actually I've made this observation that

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we don't agree on too much with our European friends,

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but there's one issue that's undoubtedly a consensus, and that

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is on the need to address the threats from Iran.

368
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And so I'm curious to see if and how that develops.

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But certainly, I think for Iran's part, they always relied

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on Europe to be able to do business there, to

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have operate there freely. I think you're seeing, especially from

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some of the heads of government there an awareness of

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a different landscape and a different need, and so I'm waiting,

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you know, that'll be an interesting to watch. But so

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I think the coalition is forming. I think the you've

376
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seen as well from some of our regional partners now

377
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they the public statements of caution that we've seen in

378
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previous weeks, especially from Saudi Arabia. That is a public

379
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message because they are, as we're seeing now, in the crosshairs.

380
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They're in the neighborhood. But we also saw that Washington

381
00:25:02,039 --> 00:25:06,039
Post piece that the Crown Prince was encouraging quietly the

382
00:25:06,079 --> 00:25:09,480
President to act, and the Defense Minister in Washington saying

383
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that you know, we knew we do need to act

384
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on the ultimatum we set. It's important for peace. And

385
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so the the consensus is there. The the record of

386
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:26,359
working together to defend against Iranian threats is also there,

387
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on which they're building and so I think that is

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all Those are all positive signs for me in terms

389
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of where a potential new coalition can take shape and

390
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:43,640
take ownership over the next phase of hopefully seeing their

391
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neighborhood reach a more stable condition.

392
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Speaker 1: Clearly, this is a very complicated region and there are

393
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all kinds of politics, geopolitics, sect politics playing out. You know,

394
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,279
you have you have it. It's more than that, but

395
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you have two major fundamental versions of Islam, or you know,

396
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:12,440
the political power surrounding Islam, and so Saudi Arabia is

397
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:15,799
not Iran in that capacity, just as a rock was

398
00:26:15,839 --> 00:26:18,559
not Iran, because you have the two different factions. But

399
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:26,720
will you ultimately see the Islamic brotherhood if you will

400
00:26:28,079 --> 00:26:31,799
get together in and this is what Iran is hoping

401
00:26:31,839 --> 00:26:36,559
for a common enemy the United States and of course Israel.

402
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Speaker 2: No, it's a good question. I think the opposite is true,

403
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,200
and I'll tell you why. I think that. I think

404
00:26:42,599 --> 00:26:46,519
we don't appreciate enough that it's not only the Muslim

405
00:26:46,519 --> 00:26:49,000
communities in the Middle East, but even the Shia communities

406
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in the Middle East that are some of the victims

407
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of this regime's terror. Not all I mean. But first

408
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:01,279
of all, you know this regime which came to power

409
00:27:01,319 --> 00:27:04,400
with a hybrid. It's really a hybrid of Islamic and

410
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,880
Marxist ideology. So you have the vanguard that's very much

411
00:27:08,039 --> 00:27:11,480
Marxist thinking, and one of many of their ideologues came

412
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:14,279
from that school in the sixties and fifties. So you

413
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:16,119
have to think these are communities that not only are

414
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:19,640
targeted physically now because they live in these countries that

415
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:25,200
are under attack from regime missiles, but also their religion,

416
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:30,039
you know, is being packaged in this way to basically

417
00:27:30,079 --> 00:27:33,079
be the biggest force of destruction in the world. And

418
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:38,960
so even from a I would think just individualistic perspective,

419
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:43,759
this is an issue as well. So I think that'll

420
00:27:43,799 --> 00:27:45,920
be interesting. That'll I think account for some of what

421
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:47,640
we'll see on the ground in the Middle East, as

422
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:52,279
far as you know, if the regime, out of desperation,

423
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:54,759
tries to reach out to as it's been doing a

424
00:27:54,799 --> 00:27:58,920
little bit, some of the militias in Iraq, you know,

425
00:27:59,319 --> 00:28:02,079
if they respond, You've seen many of its proxies not

426
00:28:02,519 --> 00:28:06,279
actually take action. That's because, for example, has bel only

427
00:28:06,319 --> 00:28:10,160
recently they did start a little bit, but their calculus

428
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is what does the population thinking, and Frank of the

429
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:14,839
population is not on board. And so the Prime Minister

430
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:17,200
of Lebanon is going out and saying we should not

431
00:28:17,279 --> 00:28:20,680
be attacking Israel. This is not in our interest precisely

432
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:24,039
because that's not what the Lebanese street wants. This is

433
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an important context for again explaining the success, like the

434
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,279
success of the continued efforts that we're taking.

435
00:28:32,599 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 1: This president has been clear and this administration has been

436
00:28:37,319 --> 00:28:42,720
clear from the beginning, and it's been clear throughout. It

437
00:28:42,759 --> 00:28:45,440
was clear throughout the first term. It's clear and Trump

438
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:49,519
two point zero. They don't take any options off the table.

439
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,519
And that's a good thing. That's a position of strength.

440
00:28:52,599 --> 00:28:55,640
That's a position of strength that we certainly did not

441
00:28:55,759 --> 00:28:58,559
have in the Biden or Obama years, where red lines

442
00:28:58,599 --> 00:29:02,000
were crossed all the time. Of course, but all of

443
00:29:02,039 --> 00:29:06,759
that said, he has not ruled out boots on the ground.

444
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:13,279
That has long been a major concern for Americans, American families,

445
00:29:13,359 --> 00:29:17,880
of course, with you know, with military members, not that

446
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:24,880
they you know, they don't believe in the work, the commitment,

447
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:28,640
the job that these brave members of the military have.

448
00:29:29,279 --> 00:29:31,960
But all of that said, how likely is it that

449
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we will have to see ground forces in Iran?

450
00:29:35,599 --> 00:29:38,839
Speaker 2: Yeah? Well, what the President's team have said is they

451
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,039
don't want to weigh in either way on that issue.

452
00:29:41,039 --> 00:29:43,720
And again we have to remember when they're speaking now,

453
00:29:43,839 --> 00:29:47,839
especially now on this issue, anything they say publicly will

454
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also be heard by the adversary, and so they don't

455
00:29:51,519 --> 00:29:55,279
want to provide any additional support to them. Say all right, well,

456
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:57,079
America's this is kind of the extent of it, we can,

457
00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:01,319
we can pucker through and figure this out. That being said,

458
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:05,119
I you know, I obviously see this. This is something

459
00:30:05,519 --> 00:30:09,920
that was likely I'm not on the inside anymore and

460
00:30:10,039 --> 00:30:13,279
wasn't really this. But I would think that this type

461
00:30:13,319 --> 00:30:15,960
of an operation, this scale, which the President said, is

462
00:30:16,039 --> 00:30:19,799
unlike anything we've seen before with consequence for our benefit,

463
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:22,720
unlike anything we've seen before around the world. I would

464
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:24,519
imagine this was in the works and planning for a

465
00:30:24,519 --> 00:30:27,240
lot of time. And so I think that speaks the

466
00:30:27,279 --> 00:30:32,920
success of the operation of which we've only seen. Again,

467
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:36,039
we're only at the end of day four local time

468
00:30:36,039 --> 00:30:40,319
there already with with historic success. So I, you know,

469
00:30:40,799 --> 00:30:46,759
again not weighing in either way, but I think it's

470
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:51,000
kind of a moment where, having accomplished so much already,

471
00:30:51,359 --> 00:30:56,680
let's sort of see how it plays out. And but yeah,

472
00:30:56,799 --> 00:30:58,440
I think that's kind of where they're at on it.

473
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:03,039
But you know, and so obviously we've had we should

474
00:31:03,039 --> 00:31:05,839
have started, you know, we have had already American casualties,

475
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:10,000
and which the President mentioned in his opening remarks on

476
00:31:10,119 --> 00:31:14,039
Saturday morning, and that that is, as a president said,

477
00:31:14,319 --> 00:31:18,720
a reality of any military engagement war, especially of this magnitude.

478
00:31:19,279 --> 00:31:21,000
But I think it's important for us to remember this

479
00:31:21,119 --> 00:31:24,599
is not us alone, that this is something that truly

480
00:31:24,759 --> 00:31:29,680
is shared by I think the world, the peace letting

481
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:31,400
people around the world, and we see it again in

482
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:33,799
the statements from our partners and allies, but certainly in

483
00:31:33,839 --> 00:31:37,680
the region and so where we do have not only

484
00:31:38,079 --> 00:31:41,839
support but cooperation, and so that I think is an

485
00:31:41,839 --> 00:31:47,559
important piece of context for both for how this has

486
00:31:47,799 --> 00:31:48,519
been conducted.

487
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:56,039
Speaker 1: How likely is it that this war, this military operation

488
00:31:56,839 --> 00:32:02,759
expands further into the region. We are seeing explosions, hearing

489
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:12,680
explosions and seeing them in in Lebanon and elsewhere. How

490
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,480
far does this this campaign go do you think?

491
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:18,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think at a certain point it becomes a

492
00:32:18,359 --> 00:32:21,279
little bit of a semantics piece of you know, using

493
00:32:21,279 --> 00:32:24,359
the word war. What we really haven't seen. The running

494
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:27,640
response has been pretty much like it's done in the past.

495
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:29,960
I mean, they really don't are not able to really

496
00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:33,640
mount a sufficient response. But that's exactly been the approach.

497
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:37,319
We are preempting and preventing a bigger escalation, and that's

498
00:32:37,319 --> 00:32:42,240
been obviously Israel's approach. You know, it's very possible. Have

499
00:32:42,319 --> 00:32:45,640
they not done that with Lebanon years ago. Over the

500
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:48,960
last few years, they would have actually had, you know,

501
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:52,480
the scenario that everybody feared of the hundreds of thousands

502
00:32:52,519 --> 00:32:55,559
of as blow missiles, fire and digital that never materialized

503
00:32:55,559 --> 00:32:57,799
because there was took out the launchers, the commanders and

504
00:32:57,839 --> 00:33:02,519
so forth. Now that being said, Israel has its specific

505
00:33:02,559 --> 00:33:07,480
objectives in the region, and part of that will be

506
00:33:08,279 --> 00:33:14,440
decisively eradicating hesbel A presence, not just the threat from Lebanon.

507
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:16,839
I mean, the last few years has been dismantling the threat,

508
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:23,960
which is included again incredible accomplishments through their covert actions

509
00:33:24,079 --> 00:33:28,799
of taking out Estralla and all the leadership. I think,

510
00:33:29,119 --> 00:33:30,920
and what I've been reading in the press as well

511
00:33:31,079 --> 00:33:34,920
is that Israel is looking at something substantial in Lebanon

512
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:41,400
which again will accrue benefit, the result of which this

513
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,720
is the war that Israel had planned, not the gas

514
00:33:44,759 --> 00:33:49,359
of war, which Israeli parlance is sometimes called the war

515
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:51,920
of mass distraction because because the real threat, the strategic

516
00:33:52,039 --> 00:33:54,319
threat to Israel's existence was in the north and so

517
00:33:55,359 --> 00:33:58,799
the but that again will accrue benefit as far as

518
00:33:58,839 --> 00:34:03,400
addressing the presidents of actives of giving over to our

519
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:07,559
partners a their region, because once the threat from Lebanon

520
00:34:08,039 --> 00:34:12,880
from Hezbola is eradicated in Lebanon, then there is opportunity

521
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:19,800
for progress in that part of the world and for

522
00:34:20,119 --> 00:34:23,039
Israel its neighbors, who by the way, agree with the

523
00:34:23,079 --> 00:34:26,280
actions Israel is taken, by the way, are those that

524
00:34:26,559 --> 00:34:29,639
Lebanese people want. And so you see a lot of

525
00:34:29,679 --> 00:34:34,079
the with the Arab street really wants to see that.

526
00:34:34,199 --> 00:34:37,519
They all want to see Iron's influence taken away, eradicated.

527
00:34:37,559 --> 00:34:42,039
And so but again that that is Israel's war, just

528
00:34:42,079 --> 00:34:45,960
as the Gaza War was Israel's a war. And and

529
00:34:46,079 --> 00:34:49,679
again those are wars, those are wars of necessity because

530
00:34:49,679 --> 00:34:54,039
of Israel's survival, because if it doesn't, that's again narrowly,

531
00:34:54,079 --> 00:34:57,639
it's calculus which and it is prerogative to to take

532
00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:01,760
in defense of its own citizens. The American objective here,

533
00:35:02,639 --> 00:35:06,159
going back to the original point, is looking at the

534
00:35:06,159 --> 00:35:08,920
immediate threats to the American people, which again are pervasive

535
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:12,159
as we look at you know what Iran has been

536
00:35:12,159 --> 00:35:19,079
building towards and discussing publicly, So you know, will that

537
00:35:19,159 --> 00:35:21,880
be considered a wider war? Will that just be Israel's

538
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:27,000
military operation to eradicate the threat from Hesblo, which will

539
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:31,119
by the way, accelerate the effectiveness of our objectives. That

540
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:36,039
remains to be seen. But again, I think the state

541
00:35:36,079 --> 00:35:40,639
of Iran's military political leadership isn't such an unprecedented state

542
00:35:40,679 --> 00:35:45,480
of disarray. And I say that especially with the ouster

543
00:35:45,559 --> 00:35:50,800
of Humanae that I really, you know, we don't know

544
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:55,039
exactly what their calculus is, but you know it's it's

545
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:58,559
you know, given how much how effective things have been,

546
00:36:00,039 --> 00:36:04,280
you know, I think the objective is in sight is

547
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:04,960
what it looks like.

548
00:36:06,159 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 1: Speaking of the language and the semantics, we have a

549
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:12,880
lot of folks in Congress who seemingly haven't read the

550
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:19,719
Constitution or that we've learned much about you know, military

551
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:23,360
actions and what the executive branch can do and cannot do.

552
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:26,320
And so you're hearing all of this talk that this

553
00:36:26,519 --> 00:36:30,960
is an illegal operation, that the president did not have

554
00:36:31,199 --> 00:36:36,199
the authority to do this, and he needs Congress's approval.

555
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:44,000
That obviously is not the case. Why other than for

556
00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:50,360
naked politics, is this the response from many members of

557
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:51,480
the Democrat side.

558
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:56,320
Speaker 2: It's completely reckless, and especially right now among Democrats, to

559
00:36:56,360 --> 00:37:00,199
be gratuitous to be going there. Look, I served for

560
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:04,320
Senate leadership and I was there I read the justification.

561
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:07,320
As you know, we were given the bio President Trump

562
00:37:07,639 --> 00:37:12,199
of his actions, and so he is using the same method.

563
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:15,320
In fact here, you know, he immediately gave notice to

564
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:18,920
the American people to Congress and in those remarks at

565
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:22,400
two thirty in the morning on Saturday. That is sufficient

566
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:26,159
to meet whatever that that goes beyond, in fact, what

567
00:37:26,199 --> 00:37:28,920
he's required to do by the Constitution, which authorizes him.

568
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:31,800
Again if you if you read the plain language, to

569
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:34,440
take actions that he deems necessary. It's his decision alone

570
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:38,119
as commander in chief to protect the American people. That's

571
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:43,480
that's the that's exclusively the objective here. And look, I

572
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:47,400
think there are you know, this will be you'll see

573
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:50,679
all types of you know, broadsides that are again the

574
00:37:50,679 --> 00:37:52,800
time right now is to put politics aside for everyone,

575
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:57,880
get together behind the president, immunity, support this important uh

576
00:37:58,519 --> 00:38:00,559
this important action on behalfy people.

577
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:03,760
Speaker 1: Final question for you and even very generous with your time.

578
00:38:04,559 --> 00:38:10,400
But this isn't just about Iran. We talk about the

579
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:15,519
four dhs of this administration. There are other things in play.

580
00:38:16,119 --> 00:38:22,840
I think about our other significant adversaries, Russia and China.

581
00:38:23,599 --> 00:38:30,760
What kind of message and what is the strategy relating

582
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:37,719
to Russia, China and other adversaries in this particular conflict

583
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:38,840
right now.

584
00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:43,840
Speaker 2: I think it'll be interesting to watch how they Obviously

585
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:49,800
they're the only ones who have been criticizing the operation.

586
00:38:52,079 --> 00:38:54,679
I think that we will see so it has direct

587
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:58,079
impact on both in terms of deterring them. But I

588
00:38:58,159 --> 00:39:01,400
suspect that we will see a a very quick, quick

589
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:06,760
downstream effect on Russia especially. I mean that Pudin's war

590
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:10,039
has already not been going in his direction, in his favor.

591
00:39:10,559 --> 00:39:15,159
He's hemorrhaging men. The numbers I think in last month

592
00:39:15,199 --> 00:39:18,280
alone was the total number that we had lost in

593
00:39:18,559 --> 00:39:22,320
the Korean War, just in one month, and he is

594
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:25,519
not and with no gains really to show. And I

595
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:30,239
think militarily speaking, i've heard that, you know, after the winter,

596
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:34,039
which is you know, soon we're in spring, the Ukrainians

597
00:39:34,039 --> 00:39:37,519
will have the advantage militarily. But if you think about

598
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:43,039
his dependence on Iran for ballistic missiles, drones, other types

599
00:39:43,039 --> 00:39:46,159
of equipment, you know that supply line is now being

600
00:39:46,159 --> 00:39:50,239
cut off by our efforts just de facto. So I

601
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:53,079
think it's very real that we will see an end

602
00:39:53,159 --> 00:39:55,840
to the Ukraine War. You know, in short order. I mean,

603
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:59,559
I don't want to you know, be flippant or overstate,

604
00:39:59,599 --> 00:40:01,840
but I I think that'll be the first domino to fall.

605
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:05,480
And then as for China, you know, they take their

606
00:40:05,559 --> 00:40:08,679
consumer of Irun and oil. They you know, for them,

607
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:11,559
Iran represents a major foot gold in the region. They

608
00:40:11,559 --> 00:40:16,440
provide missile parts and missiles to Iran. That that is

609
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:21,719
disappearing as well. So their opportunity to to to undermine

610
00:40:22,199 --> 00:40:25,440
our interests, you know, within other parts of the world

611
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:29,079
is being lost. So and it certainly reasily anything else

612
00:40:29,079 --> 00:40:31,320
they want to do. So I think this is having

613
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:36,159
global effect already, and I think that the benefits of

614
00:40:36,199 --> 00:40:38,840
that will accrue only towards us and our interests. So

615
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:41,679
another reason why this is important.

616
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:45,440
Speaker 1: Time will tell obviously with all of these things. But

617
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:52,639
as we watch all of this play out, Americans will pray.

618
00:40:53,559 --> 00:40:56,840
I will pray, but I will pray for America first.

619
00:40:57,840 --> 00:41:01,679
Thanks to my guest today, Jacob Oladort, chief research Officer

620
00:41:01,719 --> 00:41:05,920
and Director of American Security at the America First Policy Institute.

621
00:41:06,079 --> 00:41:08,559
You've been listening to another edition of the Federalist Radio Hour.

622
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:12,679
I'm Matt Kettle, Senior Elections correspondent at the Federalist. We'll

623
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:15,639
be back soon with more. Until then, stay lovers of

624
00:41:15,679 --> 00:41:28,840
freedom and anxious for the fray.