WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.520 --> 00:00:09.640 It's nice side with Dan Ray WBZ costs new video. 2 00:00:19.160 --> 00:00:21.120 Oh we're back here. I'm look at this. I'm getting 3 00:00:21.160 --> 00:00:25.399 ready for my next hour. My goodness. Okay, thank you, Rob. 4 00:00:25.440 --> 00:00:28.600 Appreciate that very much. As we move into the nine 5 00:00:28.600 --> 00:00:32.840 o'clock hour, the Democrats are in Night two in Chicago, 6 00:00:33.479 --> 00:00:38.479 and I'm delighted to be joined by John zogby Polar extraordinaire. 7 00:00:38.960 --> 00:00:41.320 Johnny got a new book out, Beyond the horse Race, 8 00:00:41.799 --> 00:00:47.079 How to Read Polls and Why We Should The title 9 00:00:47.200 --> 00:00:50.920 is it's pretty obvious, but implifying that a little bit. 10 00:00:50.960 --> 00:00:53.399 And we'll talk about the book in a little while, 11 00:00:53.439 --> 00:00:55.000 but I'm intrigued by the title. 12 00:00:57.039 --> 00:01:02.799 Well, Hi, Dan, thanks for inviting me again. And I 13 00:01:02.840 --> 00:01:06.719 mean essentially, a lot of folks talk about polls. A 14 00:01:06.760 --> 00:01:09.519 lot of folks bash them, and a lot of folks 15 00:01:09.640 --> 00:01:13.879 misinterpret them. And those a lot of folks are, particularly 16 00:01:13.959 --> 00:01:17.680 those who should know better, you know, talking heads, the pundits, 17 00:01:17.799 --> 00:01:20.959 columnists and so on. I think a lot of it 18 00:01:21.000 --> 00:01:26.760 is they have wrong expectations for what poles tell us. 19 00:01:27.040 --> 00:01:30.159 I mean, the only number that matters is who's ahead 20 00:01:30.159 --> 00:01:34.400 and by how much? And that's followed up with and 21 00:01:35.319 --> 00:01:41.040 we predict or this poll predicts, and that is such 22 00:01:41.079 --> 00:01:45.120 a disservice to you know, what we really do. Yes, 23 00:01:45.239 --> 00:01:48.480 we're taking a snapshot of a moment in time, and 24 00:01:48.519 --> 00:01:55.000 we are capturing who's ahead and by how much. In 25 00:01:55.040 --> 00:02:00.200 addition to that, what we're doing is we're taking a 26 00:02:00.280 --> 00:02:02.599 look at a whole lot more. 27 00:02:02.359 --> 00:02:03.719 Details, like. 28 00:02:05.239 --> 00:02:09.360 Is Kamala Harris doing what she needs to do among blacks, 29 00:02:09.400 --> 00:02:14.120 among the Latinos, among that winning democratic coalition, is Trump 30 00:02:14.240 --> 00:02:19.159 appealing to independence? And which independence is the appealing to 31 00:02:19.759 --> 00:02:23.599 Those are the sorts of things that, among many others, 32 00:02:23.639 --> 00:02:28.039 that we should be talking about as opposed to just 33 00:02:29.120 --> 00:02:33.240 you know, focusing on that that one one dimensional number. 34 00:02:33.520 --> 00:02:34.199 Who's ahead. 35 00:02:34.599 --> 00:02:37.800 Okay, we you're going to stay with us until nine thirty, 36 00:02:37.879 --> 00:02:40.879 So folks want to ask you any question? Uh, you 37 00:02:40.960 --> 00:02:43.479 need to jump on now, Ladies and gentlemen, six one seven, 38 00:02:43.520 --> 00:02:46.560 two four ten thirty or six one seven, nine three 39 00:02:46.680 --> 00:02:48.800 one ten thirty. We'll try to get at least a 40 00:02:48.840 --> 00:02:51.599 couple of phone calls in for John Zogby before the 41 00:02:51.680 --> 00:02:55.280 end of the hour. I mentioned you today that that 42 00:02:55.479 --> 00:02:59.400 this race as it is now evolved, it's a very 43 00:02:59.439 --> 00:03:03.000 different rate today than it was six weeks ago. It's 44 00:03:03.520 --> 00:03:07.240 it's a very different race than what people anticipated six 45 00:03:07.319 --> 00:03:12.759 months ago. It is it's I don't know how you 46 00:03:12.759 --> 00:03:15.400 can poll this race effectively. I'm sure you're going to 47 00:03:15.400 --> 00:03:18.960 figure it out. But I use the example today that 48 00:03:19.120 --> 00:03:22.520 normally most races kind of I think of them as 49 00:03:23.039 --> 00:03:25.599 as Major league fastballs. Yeah, they're tough to poll, but 50 00:03:25.639 --> 00:03:27.159 you can every once in a while hit them if 51 00:03:27.199 --> 00:03:29.159 you time it right. But this is like trying to 52 00:03:29.199 --> 00:03:32.280 hit a knuckleball, a Tim Wakefield knuckleball, which is moving 53 00:03:32.360 --> 00:03:35.240 all over the place. This race has just moved up 54 00:03:35.319 --> 00:03:39.159 and down and now sideways. Do you think this race 55 00:03:39.240 --> 00:03:41.680 is going to be a tougher race for you and 56 00:03:41.719 --> 00:03:45.479 the other longtime professional posters to poll. 57 00:03:45.680 --> 00:03:51.280 No. No, because we've had, you know, a few decades 58 00:03:51.400 --> 00:03:55.639 to figure out a lot of the changing dynamics technologically, 59 00:03:55.800 --> 00:04:00.240 you know, from the telephone to online for calling cell phone. 60 00:04:00.520 --> 00:04:02.680 I think we've had time to figure that out and 61 00:04:02.759 --> 00:04:06.599 to you know, to get that in a pattern that 62 00:04:06.680 --> 00:04:11.759 we're comfortable with. And then secondly, you know, going back 63 00:04:11.800 --> 00:04:15.159 to the election of two thousand, we've had some very 64 00:04:15.240 --> 00:04:19.800 tough competitive races that we've had to poll. And you know, 65 00:04:20.360 --> 00:04:23.800 despite the fact that folks, would you know, like to say, oh, 66 00:04:23.839 --> 00:04:25.959 the posters blew this one or they blew that. 67 00:04:26.000 --> 00:04:26.319 One. 68 00:04:26.560 --> 00:04:31.160 Fact is we saw that those races were close and 69 00:04:31.360 --> 00:04:35.759 could tip one way or another. And I think, you know, 70 00:04:36.199 --> 00:04:38.319 even though there's a lot of anger and a lot 71 00:04:38.360 --> 00:04:41.079 of bitterness and a lot of people hanging up the phones, 72 00:04:42.480 --> 00:04:45.879 I'm not finding it the turf out there any more 73 00:04:45.959 --> 00:04:50.079 difficult to pull than anytime in the forty years I've 74 00:04:50.120 --> 00:04:50.680 been doing it. 75 00:04:51.519 --> 00:04:54.680 Does this race, I mean, this is unprecedented. I mean, 76 00:04:55.160 --> 00:04:57.920 six weeks ago, Joe Biden says I'm in this and 77 00:04:58.079 --> 00:05:00.560 only if God Almighty tells me to get out, I 78 00:05:00.600 --> 00:05:01.160 will get out. 79 00:05:01.399 --> 00:05:01.519 Now. 80 00:05:01.560 --> 00:05:07.000 Apparently he did get a call from God, God Almighty sometime, 81 00:05:07.040 --> 00:05:12.560 I guess on the weekend of July twenty first. It's unprecedented. 82 00:05:13.399 --> 00:05:17.199 Does this race have beer any resemblance to any race 83 00:05:17.199 --> 00:05:19.519 that you that you can remember presidential race that you've 84 00:05:19.519 --> 00:05:20.279 seen in the past. 85 00:05:21.279 --> 00:05:24.720 Well, no, not in terms of driving a candidate out 86 00:05:24.759 --> 00:05:28.920 in mid stream. Certainly not in an incumbent as well. 87 00:05:29.199 --> 00:05:33.639 You know, there are some, you know, examples from the 88 00:05:33.720 --> 00:05:40.040 past of tight races. There are some examples of real controversies, 89 00:05:40.360 --> 00:05:43.959 you know, during campaigns, but this one, the level of 90 00:05:44.160 --> 00:05:49.959 anger and bitternesses is you know, sky high. The level 91 00:05:50.000 --> 00:05:53.560 of alienation and who is going to actually turn out 92 00:05:53.600 --> 00:05:58.000 to vote is is something that we need to look 93 00:05:58.040 --> 00:06:04.199 at in great detail. And I think also that whereas 94 00:06:04.279 --> 00:06:08.360 when Joe Biden was in it was still competitive, you know, 95 00:06:08.439 --> 00:06:12.720 it was a two three four point race, Trump leading, 96 00:06:12.839 --> 00:06:20.360 you know, consistently, but with Biden out, that's given the 97 00:06:20.399 --> 00:06:25.560 opportunity for a new Democratic candidate to first of all 98 00:06:25.639 --> 00:06:31.040 change the conversation right from age and mental acuity to 99 00:06:31.079 --> 00:06:33.879 just that being off the table, and now we know 100 00:06:33.920 --> 00:06:38.079 we can get into issues and other kinds of personal details, 101 00:06:38.439 --> 00:06:43.199 and then also measure how Kamala Harris is doing among 102 00:06:43.240 --> 00:06:48.680 those key, you know, decisive groups of voters that Democrats 103 00:06:49.199 --> 00:06:52.360 absolutely need in order to win. And what we're finding 104 00:06:52.399 --> 00:06:56.079 at this point in time is that while she isn't 105 00:06:56.240 --> 00:07:00.560 exactly where she needs to be to win, she's made 106 00:07:00.680 --> 00:07:06.000 great strides among black voters and Hispanic voters, younger voters, 107 00:07:06.040 --> 00:07:09.959 women voters than Biden did. And Biden was kind of 108 00:07:10.040 --> 00:07:14.879 boxed out because especially after the debate, there was only 109 00:07:14.920 --> 00:07:17.720 one issue and that dominated the news and there was 110 00:07:17.800 --> 00:07:19.680 no way he was going to be able to move 111 00:07:19.720 --> 00:07:20.160 beyond that. 112 00:07:21.199 --> 00:07:23.720 Okay, So here's a question on polling. And I know 113 00:07:23.800 --> 00:07:26.959 that this question has occurred in other races, and that 114 00:07:27.120 --> 00:07:30.279 is a lot of people today are anxious to say, 115 00:07:30.519 --> 00:07:34.160 put a Harris on Waltz button on. You can see 116 00:07:34.199 --> 00:07:40.319 the enthusiasm in Chicago. It's an energized Democratic base. How 117 00:07:40.399 --> 00:07:43.600 concerned are you as a polster that you're going that 118 00:07:43.639 --> 00:07:45.879 there's going to be a hidden Trump vote out there? 119 00:07:45.920 --> 00:07:48.920 In other words, no one is ashamed or willing or 120 00:07:49.000 --> 00:07:51.360 unwilling to disclose their voting for Harris if they're a 121 00:07:51.360 --> 00:07:54.480 Harris supporter. But I would argue that there are some 122 00:07:54.639 --> 00:07:57.879 Trump voters who are going to try to either tell 123 00:07:58.040 --> 00:08:03.079 pollsters a lie or are not going to be as 124 00:08:03.120 --> 00:08:05.439 forthcoming as they should be. Are you concerned about that 125 00:08:05.519 --> 00:08:06.879 in terms of how do you figure that? 126 00:08:07.480 --> 00:08:10.800 If you are, how do you calculate that in Yeah, No, 127 00:08:10.959 --> 00:08:14.279 that's that's a good point. First of all, let's talk 128 00:08:14.319 --> 00:08:17.759 about the lying. You know, when you're doing a random 129 00:08:17.879 --> 00:08:22.959 sample of you know, a pool of let's say one 130 00:08:23.040 --> 00:08:26.040 hundred and fifty one hundred and sixty million voters, and 131 00:08:26.079 --> 00:08:29.800 you're drawing up a sample of twelve hundred to fifteen 132 00:08:29.920 --> 00:08:36.039 hundred likely voters. You know, one person lying is not 133 00:08:36.080 --> 00:08:39.919 going to throw off those results. Two people lying isn't 134 00:08:39.919 --> 00:08:43.200 going to do that either. But how is anybody going 135 00:08:43.240 --> 00:08:46.320 to even know that there's a conspiracy when they don't 136 00:08:46.320 --> 00:08:48.960 even know if they're going to be contacted or not. 137 00:08:49.240 --> 00:08:53.080 And so I'm I've never been worried about, you know, 138 00:08:53.159 --> 00:08:59.919 people lying in terms of people undecided, you know, who 139 00:09:00.120 --> 00:09:04.279 are actually secret Trump voters but don't want to say it. 140 00:09:04.960 --> 00:09:10.120 I will admit that Trump has done better than pre 141 00:09:10.200 --> 00:09:13.279 election polls show, but I don't think he's done I 142 00:09:13.320 --> 00:09:17.399 haven't seen where he's done radically better. And one of 143 00:09:17.399 --> 00:09:20.600 the ways we can determine that is if we look 144 00:09:20.600 --> 00:09:24.480 at the undecided voters and see who they are and 145 00:09:24.519 --> 00:09:29.639 how they match, you know, demographically and party id and 146 00:09:29.960 --> 00:09:35.279 ideologically and so on with those groups and people who 147 00:09:35.279 --> 00:09:38.519 are voting for Trump, those who are voting for Harris, 148 00:09:38.519 --> 00:09:40.159 those who are voting for Kennedy. 149 00:09:42.000 --> 00:09:42.240 People. 150 00:09:42.279 --> 00:09:44.000 I'm not terribly concerned. 151 00:09:44.120 --> 00:09:46.840 Okay, there are some folks out there who say, John, 152 00:09:47.080 --> 00:09:51.320 how can you possibly however well balanced it is, how 153 00:09:51.360 --> 00:09:55.279 can you possibly get an accurate characterization? I understand how 154 00:09:55.320 --> 00:09:56.679 you do it, but I want to have you explain 155 00:09:56.720 --> 00:09:59.799 it to my audience when you're polling twelve hundred people 156 00:10:00.080 --> 00:10:03.480 out of a constituency of probably about one hundred and 157 00:10:03.559 --> 00:10:05.159 eighty million who are going to vote. 158 00:10:06.559 --> 00:10:11.159 Right, All right, So let's picture a huge jar of 159 00:10:11.200 --> 00:10:14.399 one hundred and eighty million marbles, right, and some of 160 00:10:14.440 --> 00:10:17.399 them are black and some of them are white, one 161 00:10:17.440 --> 00:10:20.440 hundred and eighty million. How do I find out how 162 00:10:20.480 --> 00:10:23.559 many white marbles how many black marbles? I can take 163 00:10:23.799 --> 00:10:26.600 pretty much the well, not the rest of my life. 164 00:10:26.639 --> 00:10:29.480 I'm an old man, but I can pretty much take 165 00:10:29.639 --> 00:10:33.919 years and years of counting all hundred and eighty marbles 166 00:10:34.120 --> 00:10:37.480 a million marbles and get an accurate count, hoping that 167 00:10:37.519 --> 00:10:40.679 nobody calls me in the meantime, or I don't get diverted, 168 00:10:41.919 --> 00:10:48.279 you got, Or what I can do is get that 169 00:10:48.360 --> 00:10:53.120 bottle shaken and then reach in blindly and draw out 170 00:10:53.320 --> 00:10:58.919 four hundred marbles, six hundred marble, one thousand marbles and 171 00:10:59.080 --> 00:11:04.559 count them. And I'll know that when I do that, 172 00:11:06.039 --> 00:11:08.840 I will have account of how many whites and how 173 00:11:08.840 --> 00:11:14.360 many black and I will if I just draw four 174 00:11:14.440 --> 00:11:17.879 hundred marbles, I will know that I will get that 175 00:11:18.039 --> 00:11:27.399 same result, plus or minus five percentage points either way, 176 00:11:28.080 --> 00:11:31.240 ninety five times out of one hundred. That's the law 177 00:11:31.320 --> 00:11:34.600 of probability. Now I have to be sure I don't 178 00:11:34.759 --> 00:11:38.639 change my method of drawing the marbles out. I've got 179 00:11:38.639 --> 00:11:41.559 to make sure that you know that I'm doing it 180 00:11:41.759 --> 00:11:45.559 the same exact way that I've done it all hundred times. 181 00:11:45.840 --> 00:11:49.000 If I draw six hundred marbles out, I'll get the 182 00:11:49.039 --> 00:11:53.200 same result ninety five cases out of one hundred plus 183 00:11:53.279 --> 00:11:57.720 or minus four and twelve hundred plus or minus three. 184 00:11:59.080 --> 00:12:07.480 So now that useful. Sure it is, rather than counting. 185 00:12:08.799 --> 00:12:11.360 You've convinced me. Hopefully you've convinced the audience a little 186 00:12:11.399 --> 00:12:15.000 bit as well. The law probabilities. My guess, John Zogby, 187 00:12:15.200 --> 00:12:17.519 if you want to jump in and ask a polster 188 00:12:17.919 --> 00:12:20.279 a question. Maybe you've never been asked a question by 189 00:12:20.320 --> 00:12:22.919 a poster, but if you have any question, bring it on. 190 00:12:23.159 --> 00:12:26.519 I must tell you, John, I'm finding very few people 191 00:12:26.840 --> 00:12:31.039 in my audience on either side who are undecided. I 192 00:12:31.039 --> 00:12:33.399 don't know what you're finding in your polls, but I 193 00:12:33.480 --> 00:12:35.480 got people calling who like Trump. I got people who 194 00:12:35.519 --> 00:12:37.759 are calling you like Biden. I got people some people 195 00:12:37.759 --> 00:12:40.200 who are calling and I should mention that that your 196 00:12:40.320 --> 00:12:43.200 firm is actually the polster for Robert F. Kennedy Junior. 197 00:12:43.240 --> 00:12:45.840 I got some people who are calling and like r 198 00:12:45.960 --> 00:12:49.720 FK Junior, but I find very few people who say 199 00:12:49.960 --> 00:12:53.919 I'm on the fence. I That's the other thing too. 200 00:12:53.960 --> 00:12:55.240 I think a lot of this is going to be 201 00:12:55.240 --> 00:12:56.960 baked in. I'm going to ask you that question and 202 00:12:57.000 --> 00:12:59.200 get your reaction to it if I'm reading it correctly. 203 00:12:59.240 --> 00:13:01.759 But I'm also going to give folks an opportunity six 204 00:13:01.759 --> 00:13:06.919 one seven thirty six one, seven thirty dial Now, I'll 205 00:13:06.919 --> 00:13:08.919 try to get you in before nine thirty. When John 206 00:13:08.960 --> 00:13:10.759 has to leave us. We'll be back on night Side 207 00:13:10.799 --> 00:13:13.919 with Foster Extraordinary John Zogby right after this. 208 00:13:15.279 --> 00:13:18.200 Now back to Dan Ray live from the Window World 209 00:13:18.399 --> 00:13:21.840 night Sight Studios. I'm WBZ News Radio. 210 00:13:22.080 --> 00:13:24.519 My guest is John Zogby. John, very quick question. I 211 00:13:24.519 --> 00:13:26.200 want to get to at least two calls for you 212 00:13:26.240 --> 00:13:30.559 here before the our time is up. I believe right now, 213 00:13:31.039 --> 00:13:36.279 primarily because of Donald Trump, not because of Kamala Harris, 214 00:13:36.519 --> 00:13:39.240 but because of Donald Trump, there are very few undecided 215 00:13:39.279 --> 00:13:41.960 voters out there. Would you agree to disagree? 216 00:13:43.279 --> 00:13:48.320 Numbers of undecideds really are dwindling, and you're right, she's 217 00:13:48.360 --> 00:13:51.480 on a honeymoon. She's I think folks were looking for 218 00:13:51.600 --> 00:13:56.840 something fresh. But in h By Labor Day, Dan, we 219 00:13:56.879 --> 00:14:01.240 will be at equilibrium and you'll see undecided to grow 220 00:14:01.720 --> 00:14:04.960 a little bit as both candidates spend a lot of 221 00:14:05.000 --> 00:14:06.639 time bashing each other's brains. 222 00:14:07.440 --> 00:14:09.919 Okay, well let's pick your brains here. We're going to 223 00:14:09.960 --> 00:14:12.120 start off with Mike and Foxborough, the home of New 224 00:14:12.159 --> 00:14:15.519 England Patriots. Mike, welcome, You're on with John Zogbie. Go 225 00:14:15.600 --> 00:14:18.159 right ahead, Mike, thank you, Thank you. 226 00:14:18.799 --> 00:14:19.000 Hey. 227 00:14:19.200 --> 00:14:21.879 I just want to say, or ask, and you might 228 00:14:21.960 --> 00:14:24.600 have touched on it, but where do you find the 229 00:14:24.679 --> 00:14:27.759 people for the polls? I heard you mentioned phones because 230 00:14:27.759 --> 00:14:31.440 it seems you know, most people don't have home phones 231 00:14:31.480 --> 00:14:34.440 now for or answer them, and they certainly don't answer 232 00:14:34.559 --> 00:14:38.480 cell phones. I would say for the most numbers, they 233 00:14:38.519 --> 00:14:42.120 don't know. So I don't know if calling people how 234 00:14:42.600 --> 00:14:44.120 you actually get a hold of people that you call 235 00:14:44.200 --> 00:14:44.960 the great. 236 00:14:44.759 --> 00:14:47.960 Great question. Let's John, John's got an answer, Fore you 237 00:14:48.000 --> 00:14:49.000 go ahead, John. 238 00:14:49.159 --> 00:14:53.120 Okay, great question, Fike. Thanks. So the fact of the 239 00:14:53.159 --> 00:14:56.600 matter is that over ninety percent of the polling we 240 00:14:56.759 --> 00:15:01.600 do now is done online. So four percent of likely 241 00:15:01.679 --> 00:15:05.960 voters have online access at home, which is about where 242 00:15:06.000 --> 00:15:10.919 the landline telephone was about forty years ago. So we 243 00:15:11.080 --> 00:15:15.600 have developed over the years panels of about fifteen million 244 00:15:16.080 --> 00:15:21.840 adults done with the email addresses, we have their demographics, 245 00:15:22.200 --> 00:15:26.120 and we have a panel that is representative of both 246 00:15:26.200 --> 00:15:29.480 adults in the US and then like the voters in 247 00:15:29.519 --> 00:15:32.360 the US, And what we do is we draw random 248 00:15:32.399 --> 00:15:36.440 samples from those fifteen million and then invite them to 249 00:15:36.480 --> 00:15:39.639 a secure website to take a poll. And the response 250 00:15:39.720 --> 00:15:43.679 rates are much better than they are on landline telephones 251 00:15:43.799 --> 00:15:46.799 and then eons better than they are on cell phones. 252 00:15:46.840 --> 00:15:50.240 Cell phones are people that are just very difficult to reach, 253 00:15:50.639 --> 00:15:53.679 and yet they're seventy percent of the folks with phones 254 00:15:53.720 --> 00:15:55.679 these days. I hope that helps. 255 00:15:58.279 --> 00:16:03.039 A quick follow up or ahead. Yeah, yeah, so this panel, 256 00:16:03.120 --> 00:16:05.720 this is interesting. So like I see poles online that 257 00:16:05.759 --> 00:16:08.240 I won't take them for the people that you have 258 00:16:08.519 --> 00:16:11.320 and these panels, as you call them, they know that 259 00:16:11.360 --> 00:16:15.600 they're going to a secure website and there are people 260 00:16:15.759 --> 00:16:21.679 that a pool that generally answer or complete the polls. 261 00:16:22.080 --> 00:16:24.519 Is that kind of a somewhat correct assumption. 262 00:16:25.759 --> 00:16:28.960 It's the panel of those willing to take polls, but 263 00:16:29.480 --> 00:16:33.679 they don't always get invited. That they hardly ever get invited, 264 00:16:34.000 --> 00:16:36.200 and very few of them take more than a couple 265 00:16:36.279 --> 00:16:37.080 of holes a year. 266 00:16:38.639 --> 00:16:43.399 Okay, you got it, Mike. Great, great quot great questions. 267 00:16:43.440 --> 00:16:45.080 Thank you. 268 00:16:44.639 --> 00:16:47.919 Those are the questions that other people are thinking about. 269 00:16:48.000 --> 00:16:49.799 Let me go to Kathy in New York. Kathy, you're 270 00:16:49.960 --> 00:16:53.320 with John Zogby, who's all from new also from New York. 271 00:16:53.360 --> 00:16:56.559 His home bases Utica, New York. Kathy. Where are you from? 272 00:16:57.600 --> 00:16:59.480 He's right down the road from me. 273 00:17:00.200 --> 00:17:01.840 Where are you what town? 274 00:17:02.720 --> 00:17:03.879 I'm calling from? Rome? 275 00:17:04.559 --> 00:17:05.160 From Rome? 276 00:17:05.359 --> 00:17:06.519 All right, we. 277 00:17:06.400 --> 00:17:10.119 Are Hey, Love Rome, and I hope you guys heal 278 00:17:10.240 --> 00:17:12.480 filmed terrible tornado there? 279 00:17:13.000 --> 00:17:17.759 Yes, we we we survived, but we didn't lose some trees, 280 00:17:17.920 --> 00:17:21.440 but otherwise we did far better than some of our 281 00:17:21.480 --> 00:17:24.799 neighbors who had a lot of trees come down on 282 00:17:24.880 --> 00:17:25.640 their houses. 283 00:17:26.200 --> 00:17:27.839 Kathy, I just want you to know I got back 284 00:17:27.839 --> 00:17:30.400 from that other room in Italy from about ten days ago. 285 00:17:30.519 --> 00:17:32.400 You go right ahead. What question do you have with 286 00:17:32.480 --> 00:17:35.119 my friend John Zogby? Polster, go right ahead, Captain. 287 00:17:35.200 --> 00:17:39.400 I have to ask. I'm a die die heart Trump fan. 288 00:17:39.640 --> 00:17:43.759 I don't necessarily agree but I think during his term 289 00:17:43.839 --> 00:17:48.960 of presidency, me and my husband were much better off 290 00:17:49.039 --> 00:17:52.240 than what we have been in And I'm just wondering, 291 00:17:52.319 --> 00:17:55.000 I see some of I talked to some of these women, 292 00:17:55.799 --> 00:18:01.200 and they just seem like they're more interested in having 293 00:18:01.240 --> 00:18:07.680 a woman president then the topics themselves that are really 294 00:18:07.759 --> 00:18:10.960 the things that matter. What is your opinion? 295 00:18:12.960 --> 00:18:13.119 You know. 296 00:18:13.240 --> 00:18:17.160 The good thing about polls is that in those twelve 297 00:18:17.279 --> 00:18:20.359 hundred people that we contact, or however many we do, 298 00:18:20.880 --> 00:18:25.640 it's representative of the whole nation or the state or whatever, 299 00:18:25.960 --> 00:18:29.640 and it goes beyond our network of friends, goes beyond 300 00:18:30.160 --> 00:18:35.240 you know, the beauty salon or the barbershop or the supermarket. 301 00:18:35.640 --> 00:18:38.839 And so there's a lot of reasons why people are 302 00:18:38.880 --> 00:18:44.319 voting for voting against the candidates. So that is one 303 00:18:44.359 --> 00:18:46.160 of the things that I think a lot of folks 304 00:18:46.319 --> 00:18:49.640 mis about polls, and I talk about it in my book, 305 00:18:50.200 --> 00:18:54.200 the fact that it is representative, so it kind of 306 00:18:54.279 --> 00:18:57.640 opens the window for us to see a broader swath 307 00:18:58.079 --> 00:19:00.319 of the American people have. 308 00:19:00.400 --> 00:19:03.599 Not everybody thinks alike. Obviously there's people who. 309 00:19:04.000 --> 00:19:08.319 Not at all, but I think people who for her ahead, 310 00:19:11.480 --> 00:19:14.559 you know, voting for somebody just because they're a woman 311 00:19:14.640 --> 00:19:18.880 for president and the run. There's the economy and so 312 00:19:19.000 --> 00:19:22.079 many other things that are important, and it wouldn't be 313 00:19:22.160 --> 00:19:26.480 a shame for her to get in office just because 314 00:19:26.480 --> 00:19:31.480 she's a woman and then have nothing get done and 315 00:19:31.559 --> 00:19:34.400 be worse off for the next four years. 316 00:19:35.759 --> 00:19:39.839 Well, let's assume Kathy, that Condoleezza Rice was running for president. 317 00:19:41.039 --> 00:19:45.799 You know, at some point, would you be voting for 318 00:19:45.880 --> 00:19:48.039 Condelieza Rice for president? 319 00:19:48.440 --> 00:19:52.119 You know, I think she would have more experience. I 320 00:19:52.200 --> 00:19:53.480 just don't think. 321 00:19:53.279 --> 00:19:55.400 The fact that she's a Republican. I bet you might 322 00:19:55.440 --> 00:19:57.960 help as well. Hey, Kathy, I hate to do this 323 00:19:58.000 --> 00:19:59.640 to you, but we're running out of time with John 324 00:19:59.759 --> 00:20:01.680 z What I was trying to say, Kathy was that 325 00:20:02.480 --> 00:20:06.960 different people look at these races differently, And what John 326 00:20:07.119 --> 00:20:09.079 Zogby has to do is he has to get a 327 00:20:09.119 --> 00:20:13.759 sampling of people from different parties, different genders, different ages, 328 00:20:13.880 --> 00:20:17.880 different geographic areas, and also different points of view. If 329 00:20:17.880 --> 00:20:21.319 he did a poll with you know, twelve hundred Trump supporters, 330 00:20:21.920 --> 00:20:25.319 I think Trump probably would win, would carry the poll 331 00:20:25.400 --> 00:20:27.599 to but he has to make sure that that isn't 332 00:20:27.640 --> 00:20:30.000 the case. Kathy. I hope you hope you get a 333 00:20:30.039 --> 00:20:31.839 full recovery up there in Rome, New York. 334 00:20:31.880 --> 00:20:34.720 Okay, great, thank you, bye. 335 00:20:34.720 --> 00:20:39.519 Okay, bye bye. John. Always always great to talk with you, 336 00:20:40.759 --> 00:20:46.920 and you clarify a set of circumstances and a skill 337 00:20:47.000 --> 00:20:51.400 set that is very mysterious to a lot of my listeners. 338 00:20:52.240 --> 00:20:55.960 And yet at the end of the day, you your 339 00:20:56.039 --> 00:20:59.200 reputation and the reputation of other good friends of mine 340 00:20:59.240 --> 00:21:02.759 like Dave Paleyl Logus and Spencer Kimball. You guys need 341 00:21:02.799 --> 00:21:06.759 to be right. I mean, that's that's what what what 342 00:21:06.839 --> 00:21:09.759 you were dealing with. You're you're not in it to 343 00:21:09.960 --> 00:21:11.680 root for one side or the other. And I want 344 00:21:11.720 --> 00:21:14.359 people to understand that that you want to be right 345 00:21:15.039 --> 00:21:18.880 and correct because that's your reputation. So thank you for 346 00:21:18.960 --> 00:21:21.200 what you're doing. I'm sure we'll check back in with it, 347 00:21:21.279 --> 00:21:23.279 maybe a couple of times. We're now and over for 348 00:21:23.400 --> 00:21:29.279 fifth with if you all right, Thanks, thanks so much, 349 00:21:29.359 --> 00:21:31.680 John Zogby, ladies and gentlemen, if you're on the line, 350 00:21:31.720 --> 00:21:33.720 stay there. We'll talk a little bit about Paul and 351 00:21:33.799 --> 00:21:35.920 we'll also talk about the race. We'll talk about what 352 00:21:36.039 --> 00:21:41.519 happened last night, uh in in in Chicago, and there's 353 00:21:41.559 --> 00:21:46.119 a lot to talk about because I think that I 354 00:21:46.519 --> 00:21:50.119 really believe this. I think that Joe Biden was given 355 00:21:50.160 --> 00:21:52.599 the short end of the stick last night and the 356 00:21:52.640 --> 00:21:56.720 Democrats should have built the program around him in a 357 00:21:56.759 --> 00:22:01.440 prime time presentation. I am, and that's my thoughts. You 358 00:22:01.519 --> 00:22:03.799 might agree, you might disagree, and that's fine. We'll be 359 00:22:03.839 --> 00:22:06.480 back on Nightside right after this, after the News at 360 00:22:06.480 --> 00:22:07.400 the bottom of the hour. 361 00:22:08.440 --> 00:22:13.799 Night Side with Dan Ray on Boston's News Radio. 362 00:22:14.400 --> 00:22:16.119 By the way, I just would like to mention that 363 00:22:16.240 --> 00:22:19.960 if you are interested in polling, John Zogby's book which 364 00:22:20.000 --> 00:22:26.640 is coming out literally this month, early September, Beyond the 365 00:22:26.640 --> 00:22:29.720 horse Race, How to Read Polls and Why We Should 366 00:22:30.880 --> 00:22:35.039 It is a timely read for the politically inclined, and 367 00:22:35.079 --> 00:22:38.759 a lot of you are politically inclined. And again, John 368 00:22:39.000 --> 00:22:42.440 Zogby is a pollster who has been in the business 369 00:22:42.440 --> 00:22:45.119 for forty years and he's very kind to spend time 370 00:22:45.160 --> 00:22:49.240 with us as his day palaeologus. And also Spencer Kimball 371 00:22:49.319 --> 00:22:55.880 Dave of Suffolk and Spencer Kimball of Emerson. These individuals, 372 00:22:55.920 --> 00:22:59.759 these companies, they the only thing that they have is 373 00:22:59.799 --> 00:23:04.160 their ability to not predict the outcome, but to show 374 00:23:04.200 --> 00:23:07.079 the race as it develops. It's like watching a baseball 375 00:23:07.119 --> 00:23:08.880 game and in the bottom of the seventh inning the 376 00:23:08.920 --> 00:23:11.880 Red Sox are losing five to one, but there's still 377 00:23:11.880 --> 00:23:13.599 a couple of innings to play, and every once in 378 00:23:13.599 --> 00:23:15.039 a while they'll pull it out in the bottom of 379 00:23:15.079 --> 00:23:18.279 the night. Six to five doesn't mean that the announcers 380 00:23:18.279 --> 00:23:20.039 were wrong, and they said it was five to one 381 00:23:20.079 --> 00:23:24.000 in the in the seventh, so you gotta understand that 382 00:23:24.039 --> 00:23:27.680 they're legitimate. They're not out to hurt your candidate. Now 383 00:23:27.880 --> 00:23:29.680 here's what I would like to do. I would like 384 00:23:29.720 --> 00:23:34.160 to start a conversation tonight that deals with what happened 385 00:23:34.240 --> 00:23:38.839 last night. It is night two in Chicago for the Democrats, 386 00:23:38.839 --> 00:23:44.799 and tonight I guarantee you that when former President Obama speaks, 387 00:23:45.400 --> 00:23:49.200 it will be not at eleven thirty at night. Okay, 388 00:23:50.039 --> 00:23:54.200 he will speak as he should in prime time, no 389 00:23:54.400 --> 00:23:59.079 question in my mind about that. Last night I felt 390 00:23:59.079 --> 00:24:02.920 badly for Joe Biden. Basically he was held back until 391 00:24:02.960 --> 00:24:07.240 eleven thirty at night. And there's been some comments on that, 392 00:24:07.319 --> 00:24:09.559 which we will get to. But what I'd prefer to 393 00:24:09.559 --> 00:24:14.400 do is hear from you, Okay, hear from you on 394 00:24:14.720 --> 00:24:17.400 your thoughts about what's been going on so far with 395 00:24:17.440 --> 00:24:20.720 the Democratic Convention. The other type of people I would 396 00:24:20.839 --> 00:24:23.640 love to hear from, really would love to hear if 397 00:24:23.640 --> 00:24:26.440 you are a truly undecided voter. I don't believe there 398 00:24:26.440 --> 00:24:29.440 are many undecided voters out there. I think most of 399 00:24:29.480 --> 00:24:32.440 you have figured out who you're going to vote for. Now. 400 00:24:32.519 --> 00:24:36.079 Maybe it'll change. I guess it could change if there 401 00:24:36.119 --> 00:24:41.240