WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>About KRCD talk station. It's Tuesday regular listeners. No, it's

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<v Speaker 1>appointment listening because we're doing a Daniel Davis deep die

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<v Speaker 1>with the retired lieutenant colonel, talking wars, talking ceasefire agreements,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course a new sheriff in town, Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>making some bold, bold, bold promises to get that Russia

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine war settled. Welcome back, Daniel David's always a pleasure

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<v Speaker 1>to have you on my program. It's always a pleasure

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<v Speaker 1>to be here, Brian, thanks for having me. Well, let's

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<v Speaker 1>start with the Israel Palestinian prisoner exchange. They entered into

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<v Speaker 1>a ceasefire agreement. Some of the hostages have been released.

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<v Speaker 1>I guess I kind of been wondering in the back

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<v Speaker 1>of my head. The status of the hostages is largely unknown.

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<v Speaker 1>We do know that some of many of them have died,

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<v Speaker 1>but do we have a head count on how many

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<v Speaker 1>remain alive and how soon will they all be released?

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<v Speaker 1>And I guess a more broad question because I have

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<v Speaker 1>no faith that this ceasefire agreement has going to remain.

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<v Speaker 1>I just think the AMAS is going to just tank it.

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<v Speaker 1>But what's your take on where we stand on that one?

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<v Speaker 2>Daniel?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, we don't know to your question, their head count.

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<v Speaker 3>We don't know who's live, who's not, how many are there.

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<v Speaker 3>The Humasaid has intentionally kept that vague to continue to

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<v Speaker 3>give themselves leverage.

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<v Speaker 2>One of the things they're afraid of.

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<v Speaker 3>Is if they just gave all the hostages back in

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<v Speaker 3>one big, you know, passage, then all their leverage is

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<v Speaker 3>gone and there's nothing to stop Israel from returning to

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<v Speaker 3>the fight. And that's one of the things they continue

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<v Speaker 3>to be very worried about. So that's why they've kind

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<v Speaker 3>of spread it out over a long period of time

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<v Speaker 3>that I think the plan is three hostages every seven

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<v Speaker 3>days until it's six weeks. Then all the rest of

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<v Speaker 3>the hostages are supposed to be released and there'll be

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<v Speaker 3>a big whatever is left after that, they will be

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<v Speaker 3>in a big push into Phase two allegedly if the

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<v Speaker 3>thing gets that far. It's been a bit of a

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<v Speaker 3>problem because this cease far has really shown how Hezbolay

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<v Speaker 3>has really weathered this storm much better even than I

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<v Speaker 3>thought that they would. In their tunnel systems, they have

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<v Speaker 3>rebuilt a lot of the tunnel system ms. You actually

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<v Speaker 3>had a secretary blinking on the way out admit that

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<v Speaker 3>Hamas had almost completely rebuilt its strength.

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<v Speaker 2>So it is really a stunning.

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<v Speaker 3>Development that Israel is no closer to success today than

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<v Speaker 3>they were before then. And I think that in many

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<v Speaker 3>ways the Israeli side needed this ceasefire more than the

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<v Speaker 3>Hamas side did. But I suspect that both sides are

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<v Speaker 3>going to use the opportunity to rebuild their strength. So

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<v Speaker 3>to your point, I don't see any evidence this is

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<v Speaker 3>going to be over anytime soon, but at least, thankfully

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<v Speaker 3>for the people of Palestine, the daily killing has at

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<v Speaker 3>least temporarily stopped.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, And I guess part of you wonders what the

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<v Speaker 1>political reality will be in the stability of the ceasefire

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<v Speaker 1>arrangement if more of the hostages have actually been killed

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<v Speaker 1>and there really aren't that many left remaining, to you know,

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<v Speaker 1>hand back over, that situation sounds like it might be

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<v Speaker 1>a politically volatile in terms of this the relationship being

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<v Speaker 1>lasting or not.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, the only thing that mitigate against it is everybody's

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<v Speaker 3>very aware that possibly as many as half of the

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<v Speaker 3>remaining hostages that they've identified are probably not alive. So

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<v Speaker 3>it won't shock anyone, but especially for the family members

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<v Speaker 3>they they all most of them are saying they're not well,

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<v Speaker 3>not that they don't care, but that the one way

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<v Speaker 3>or know that they want their person back no matter what,

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<v Speaker 3>whether they were alive or dead, they.

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<v Speaker 2>Just want you know, the proof or so.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so it's still a big issue there. Well, this

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<v Speaker 1>I was unaware that they had done so much rebuilding.

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<v Speaker 1>I find it almost not I'm not questioning your authority

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<v Speaker 1>or what you're saying, but in the midst of this conflict,

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<v Speaker 1>when Israel's presence is fully there, that they had the

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<v Speaker 1>opportunity and the ability to rebuild all those tunnels, and

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<v Speaker 1>with the ceasefire agreement in place, they've got all the

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<v Speaker 1>opportunity of the world to continue rebuilding, which means basically,

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<v Speaker 1>if they go back to fighting each other, it sounds

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<v Speaker 1>like both sides are starting at square one.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, honestly, it does.

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<v Speaker 3>And you know, a lot of this was exposed not

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<v Speaker 3>just by Secretary of blink and saying it out loud,

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<v Speaker 3>but Hamas had a parade, an actual parade following the

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<v Speaker 3>ceasefire when it was announced. A lot of them came

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<v Speaker 3>out of their tunnels and you know, they're in uniform

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<v Speaker 3>and they don't have lots of their equipment, their vehicles,

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<v Speaker 3>their rockets. It shows that they never lost all of

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<v Speaker 3>their capacity, even though the images on the on the

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<v Speaker 3>surface looked literally like a moonscape, shocking the amount of destruction.

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<v Speaker 3>But under the ground, they've weathered that storm. Yeah, and

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<v Speaker 3>I saw a photograph the other day the same thing.

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<v Speaker 3>My just my mouth fell open.

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<v Speaker 1>It's just it, it's I mean, it's completely in hospitality

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<v Speaker 1>to people living there. There are no buildings, they're all

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<v Speaker 1>blown up, and they're in piles and rubble, and I

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<v Speaker 1>just just wonder what kind of rebuilding effort is going

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<v Speaker 1>to go on, And I mean, can they even rebuild?

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<v Speaker 1>And where the resource is going to come to rebuild.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, a lot of people in America don't know it,

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<v Speaker 3>but in the the Korean War, in the latter stages

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<v Speaker 3>of the Korean War, when we were trying to get

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<v Speaker 3>the the armistice signed, the US.

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<v Speaker 2>Air Force almost literally.

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<v Speaker 3>Wiped out every village and town in North Korea, turned

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<v Speaker 3>it entirely into rubble. And the same question was there too.

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<v Speaker 3>But the people will find a way to do it.

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<v Speaker 3>There's already some talk, especially among the Arabs in the

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<v Speaker 3>Middle East, about funding a lot of this Europe is

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<v Speaker 3>to wanting to do some et cetera.

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<v Speaker 2>But it's going to be.

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<v Speaker 3>Decades plural before that stuff gets done. And of course

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<v Speaker 3>it won't even start until there's some kind of political settlement.

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<v Speaker 3>It won't even start until then, So it's a long

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<v Speaker 3>long road.

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<v Speaker 2>To hoe well.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course, pivoting over to the Russia Ukraine situation, at

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<v Speaker 1>least I suppose Ukraine has enough quote unquote resources that

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<v Speaker 1>at least it'll be more financially able to perhaps do

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<v Speaker 1>some rebuilding. They do have the bread basket, they have resources.

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<v Speaker 1>They of course would have some measure of support from

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<v Speaker 1>the NATO countries the European Union given how their proximity,

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<v Speaker 1>whether or not they're let in or not as a

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<v Speaker 1>completely different story, but in order to resolve that conflict,

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<v Speaker 1>as you and I have talked about, and Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>wants to settle, that Ukraine's going to have to make

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<v Speaker 1>some major concessions. I mean, seems like Russia has all

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<v Speaker 1>the cards. Well they really do it.

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<v Speaker 3>And and two events over the last since you and

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<v Speaker 3>I were on last have been published that got almost

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<v Speaker 3>no notice here in the West, but that are crucial

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<v Speaker 3>and vital to this especially as Trump has now assumed office,

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<v Speaker 3>and that on the Ukraine side you had their General Sersky,

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<v Speaker 3>their commander in chief of the armed forces, admitted that

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<v Speaker 3>they are not even able to force mobilize enough people

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<v Speaker 3>to offset their losses. So we flatly said, we are

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<v Speaker 3>basically our armed forces are shrinking. We suspected this all along,

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<v Speaker 3>but he has now confirmed it. Even if they go

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<v Speaker 3>to eighteen year old and lower the age down to mobilization,

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<v Speaker 3>there simply aren't enough.

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<v Speaker 2>Men to be able to offset the losses.

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<v Speaker 3>And they're bringing in thousands every month, but they set

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<v Speaker 3>their casualties are more than that every single month. On

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<v Speaker 3>the other side, you have their national security Russian national

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<v Speaker 3>security advisor and one of their other senior members of

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<v Speaker 3>their government have said that they plan to they have

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<v Speaker 3>a plan, a resource plan to win the war by

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<v Speaker 3>twenty twenty five. So they're already thinking we're gonna keep

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<v Speaker 3>We're not. There's not an eminent wind of this, but

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<v Speaker 3>we're going all through twenty twenty five, and we plan

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<v Speaker 3>on taking all four of the territories that they have

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<v Speaker 3>annexe et cetera. Deep notzify the government. However they want

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<v Speaker 3>to define that et cetera. But that's important because they

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<v Speaker 3>are not thinking, hey, we want Trump to come into

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<v Speaker 3>negotiating into this. On the current line of contact, We're

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<v Speaker 3>going to keep going until we have all four of

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<v Speaker 3>those oblasts. And as you just said, they don't have

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<v Speaker 3>to negotiate an into it. They can just keep fighting

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<v Speaker 3>until they seize it by force. But the Ukraine side can't.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, it's just they don't have the capacity.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, and you know, going back to your comments and

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<v Speaker 1>observations about the North Korean soldiers going to fight in

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<v Speaker 1>that conflict on Russia's side in order to get experience

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<v Speaker 1>and learn how to be effective fighters. If Ukraine is

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<v Speaker 1>basically snatching up every you know, a live male person

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<v Speaker 1>in the country eighteen and up and putting them on

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<v Speaker 1>the front line, so those folks don't have experience, and

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<v Speaker 1>they're more than likely going to be casualties the season fighters,

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<v Speaker 1>the veterans more than likely have been killed already, wouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>you think.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh, one hundred percent, that's absolutely right.

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<v Speaker 3>That's and that's a bigger issue than people who don't

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<v Speaker 3>have military experience may realize, because too many times you think, well,

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<v Speaker 3>you'll just mobilize more people and put another fifty thousand

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<v Speaker 3>in uniform.

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<v Speaker 2>But a uniform doesn't make you a soldier.

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<v Speaker 3>It just means you're a civilian who's wearing a uniform

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<v Speaker 3>and here's a rifle, go fire that direction, and they

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<v Speaker 3>have no idea what they're doing. You can't function as

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<v Speaker 3>a as a coherent fighting force unless you have trained

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<v Speaker 3>people at every single level, all the way up, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>from private up to colonel in general or whatever. The Russians,

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<v Speaker 3>because they have more people, they've had the luxury of

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<v Speaker 3>training a lot of their guys over many months out

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<v Speaker 3>of contact, and then they'll rotate out people who at

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<v Speaker 3>key leader levels into new units here, so they'll bring

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<v Speaker 3>people back in. So when they have this unit that's

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<v Speaker 3>getting beat down, they'll take the unit out, they'll bring

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<v Speaker 3>a new one back in, and then this is already trained.

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<v Speaker 3>But the Ukraine side, they literally throw everybody that they

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<v Speaker 3>get into uniform into the front lines, almost no training,

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<v Speaker 3>and that's just militarily unsustainable. So that gets into this

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<v Speaker 3>calculation for Trump as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Now we got a new Secretary of State unanimous to

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<v Speaker 1>confirmed yesterday, Marco Rubio. And is that in any way,

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<v Speaker 1>shape or form a game changer, A new president who's

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<v Speaker 1>wanting and desirous of settling the conflict. Marco Rubio at

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<v Speaker 1>the helm here at the State, what do you think

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<v Speaker 1>about that?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it definitely is a game changer, without question, because

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<v Speaker 3>the outgoing administration just kept saying for as long as

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<v Speaker 3>it takes, and you know, shoveling money out the door

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<v Speaker 3>on their way out of office, with no strategy, no

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<v Speaker 3>plan whatsoever to how this could result in anything positive.

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<v Speaker 3>At least Trump is coming in. Both the Secretary of

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<v Speaker 3>Rubio as well as Trump has continued to say we're

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<v Speaker 3>looking for a negotiated settlement.

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<v Speaker 2>He said. Trump said it again last night.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, he says, you know, Russia's hurting and you know

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<v Speaker 3>they can't just they can They're grinding it out is

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<v Speaker 3>the term he used. But he also said, but they

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<v Speaker 3>have more people, so he acknowledges that just the math

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<v Speaker 3>is going to be moving in this direction. So the

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<v Speaker 3>President and Secretary of State are both talking about this

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<v Speaker 3>is going to have to be a negotiated settlement.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, and part of the leverage of getting the Ukrainians

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<v Speaker 1>that negotiate and maybe express a more desire to perhaps

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<v Speaker 1>make these concessions if we quit funding them and giving

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<v Speaker 1>them weapons that presents a genuine problem for them, that's

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<v Speaker 1>going to knock them back on value.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it doesn't. That's one of the other things.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm glad you brought that up, because that's one of

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<v Speaker 3>it was surprising too many to include myself, that Trump

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<v Speaker 3>didn't mention Ukraine at all or Russia at all during

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<v Speaker 3>the entire inauguration speech, but he did give some codes

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<v Speaker 3>in there, and he said, we're going to stop any

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<v Speaker 3>kind of foreign aid if it can't be shown that

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<v Speaker 3>it actually is in America's interest to do so. And

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<v Speaker 3>I think that was a definite shot across the bow

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<v Speaker 3>to the Ukraine that if we can't see how this

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<v Speaker 3>is going to work, it ain't gonna just keep getting

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<v Speaker 3>shoveled into the furnace like the Algony administration did. And

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<v Speaker 3>I think it's pretty clear where the Trump Administration's going. Oh,

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<v Speaker 3>I think most definitely that's what that was directed toward.

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<v Speaker 3>And of course they have folks in Ukraine closely observing

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<v Speaker 3>and listening and parsing out the words. They got the message,

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<v Speaker 3>and they got the message too. I sure you've seen

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<v Speaker 3>you Ukraine and the media this morning. They got that message.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, they did every Tuesday at eight thirty The Deep

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<v Speaker 1>Dive with Daniel Davis. Find them online to search for

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<v Speaker 1>Daniel Davis Deep Dive and until next Tuesday. My friend,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for your time. Every week I

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<v Speaker 1>look forward to another conversation.

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<v Speaker 2>Always my pleasure. Thanks Bran, See you next time. Forty one.

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<v Speaker 1>If you have KCD talk station, don't go away. We're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna be celebrating over to exits twenty fifth annivers where

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<v Speaker 1>you get asked the expert coming up shortly.

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<v Speaker 2>Be right back.

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<v Speaker 3>This is fifty five karc an iHeartRadio station.