WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Here.

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<v Speaker 2>It is your ten to nine first one to one forecast.

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<v Speaker 2>Nice day today, Enjoy it. Sunny sky's with the highest seventy.

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<v Speaker 2>It's going to be cloudy over nine fifty two for

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<v Speaker 2>the low, seventy for the high against tomorrow, and we'll

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<v Speaker 2>have some gusty wins and then around eight o'clock they

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<v Speaker 2>see the showers and maybe some storms will roll in.

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<v Speaker 2>Also there's a concern over damaging winds thirty eighth to

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<v Speaker 2>low with that cold front coming in. We'll see how

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<v Speaker 2>Its just forty six on Thursday and maybe a little

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<v Speaker 2>scattered rain. It's forty degrees right now. Let's get a

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<v Speaker 2>traffic update from Chuck Ingram.

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<v Speaker 1>From the UCUT Tramphing Center.

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<v Speaker 3>The University of Cincinnati Cancer Center offers innovative clinical trials

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<v Speaker 3>and the region's only young onset COBO rectal cancer program

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<v Speaker 3>called five one three five to eighty five. U see

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<v Speaker 3>see scene both nonth found seventy five and northbound fourth

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<v Speaker 3>seventy one running an extra half hour into downtown. Earlier

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<v Speaker 3>problems have been cleared. Southbound seventy one. There's an accident

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<v Speaker 3>right shoulder at the Reagan Highway. Gunway's blocked overlooked to

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<v Speaker 3>Gurley Chuck ingramon fifty five kre see the talk station.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a thirty here fifty five ks the Talk station

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<v Speaker 2>are very happy Tuesday to you. Always made extra special

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<v Speaker 2>happy at this time because we get the Daniel Davis

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<v Speaker 2>Deep Dive retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis joining the program

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<v Speaker 2>to talk about global conflict every Tuesday. Welcome back, Daniel Davis.

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<v Speaker 2>Love having you on the show.

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<v Speaker 1>Always late to be back, Brian, thanks for having me.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we've got, of course Russia, Ukraine and some of

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<v Speaker 2>the list of demands coming from Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll get to that in a minute.

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<v Speaker 2>I wanted to start this morning with Israel and Hamas

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<v Speaker 2>because Israel started striking, hitting targets in Gaza again, Hamas

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<v Speaker 2>refusing to release any of the hostages. I guess I

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<v Speaker 2>kind of question whether or not they're still alive. I

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<v Speaker 2>think a lot of people believe that they probably aren't.

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<v Speaker 2>They had been kept in horrific conditions, but nonetheless, the

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<v Speaker 2>bombing resumes. What's your take on this deteriorating situation? And

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<v Speaker 2>I guess the follow up question we can get to it.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you perceive that there will be a tax on Iran,

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<v Speaker 2>since Iran is the one that's providing with all the

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<v Speaker 2>weapons and armaments.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, you know, it's a bad situation. I mean, there's

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<v Speaker 4>nothing good about it for anybody. It's not good for Israel,

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<v Speaker 4>it's not good for the US, definitely not good for

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<v Speaker 4>the Palast any people. And you know a lot of

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<v Speaker 4>people were concerned from the beginning that this ceasefire was

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<v Speaker 4>not going to hold, that it was not going to

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<v Speaker 4>get to levels two and three. And in fact, neither

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<v Speaker 4>Israel nor Hamas seemed to be very interested in even

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<v Speaker 4>talking about number two. Both of them are very I

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<v Speaker 4>guess you could say stubborn in a sense that they

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<v Speaker 4>don't want to compromise anything to the other side. And

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<v Speaker 4>as a result, now then you have the war continuing on.

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<v Speaker 4>Israel had claimed last night that they had evidence that

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<v Speaker 4>there was going to be another offensive move. I thought

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<v Speaker 4>that was a bit odd from the Hamas side, and

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<v Speaker 4>apparently this was a preemptiy strike against that. We don't

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<v Speaker 4>have any independent knowledge of it, but all I can

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<v Speaker 4>tell you is that the continuing of the war. There's

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<v Speaker 4>no end in this, there's no achievable military objective here.

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<v Speaker 4>It's just the resumption of the killing, and it's just

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<v Speaker 4>going to harden the positions on both sides. We saw

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<v Speaker 4>how Hamas weathered the storm for the first sixteen months,

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<v Speaker 4>there's no reason to think they can't do it again.

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<v Speaker 4>And I really, really really hope that this does not

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<v Speaker 4>expand into Iran because that won't solve anything. I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>the Gaza strip has been hermetically sealed for the since

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<v Speaker 4>October seventh, twenty three, so they're not getting anything new

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<v Speaker 4>from Iran. So I don't think we should use that

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<v Speaker 4>as a causus bell out to expand the war because

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<v Speaker 4>all that will do was cause more killing, and it

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<v Speaker 4>can cause more problems for us and it won't solve anything.

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<v Speaker 4>So I really hope they find a way to avoid that.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, if nothing's getting in, Hamas is going to eventually

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<v Speaker 2>run out of things to throw at Israel.

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<v Speaker 4>I suppose well eventually, but see, because the hamaside had

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<v Speaker 4>foreseen this from the beginning, and so one of the

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<v Speaker 4>things we discovered during the seas far when Hamas had

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<v Speaker 4>come up, was that the tunnel network was much much

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<v Speaker 4>more elaborate than even the best case we thought, and

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<v Speaker 4>that they have enormous stockpiles of all the different categories

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<v Speaker 4>of things.

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<v Speaker 1>You need to continue fighting.

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<v Speaker 4>So that's not locked me to go away anytime soon,

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<v Speaker 4>because they have just so much of.

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<v Speaker 1>It stored up. Unfortunately.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, you know, there's a lot of parallels I guess

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<v Speaker 2>you could draw between Ukraine and Russia on that too.

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<v Speaker 2>Nobody wants to capitulate, nobody wants to give up any sides,

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<v Speaker 2>and nobody wants to give any ground because it's going

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<v Speaker 2>to viewed as a concession or they'll lose face or something,

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know, in order to prevent the loss of life.

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<v Speaker 2>I think these kind of positions may be a bit

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<v Speaker 2>childish and people should be a little bit more objective

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<v Speaker 2>about the circumstances. But as you point out, and it

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<v Speaker 2>just it sort of occurred to because it does from

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<v Speaker 2>time to time. You know, the guys is not that

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<v Speaker 2>big of a territory. And when you think of all

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<v Speaker 2>these tunnels that were yet unknown and how long it's

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<v Speaker 2>taken to find them, and they haven't even found all

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<v Speaker 2>of them, it really does illustrate when you look at

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<v Speaker 2>the size and might of the Israeli army and their

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<v Speaker 2>intelligence capabilities, which are purportedly some of the best in

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<v Speaker 2>the world. How difficult and challenging it is even to

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<v Speaker 2>deal with a very small piece or real estate.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean it's hugely I mean it's small in

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<v Speaker 4>the sense of like on a national level. Yeah, but

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<v Speaker 4>it's I think it's like twenty twenty something miles long,

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<v Speaker 4>So it's not small, you know, per se. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>it's a pretty large area and there are two million

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<v Speaker 4>people living in there, almost on top of one another,

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<v Speaker 4>so it is very very dense, and you know, you

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<v Speaker 4>just can't go in there and find all of these

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<v Speaker 4>things because these people are really good at hiding them.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean they're they're as smart as anybody else in

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<v Speaker 4>the world, and they've have found ways to hide these

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<v Speaker 4>things from these raels, and they're good at doing that.

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<v Speaker 4>They did this or the Hosbola did similar things in

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<v Speaker 4>the Lebanon area in the north of Israel. Center and

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<v Speaker 4>those that kind of knowledge is transferred around, they're able

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<v Speaker 4>to share back and forth through various means, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>lessons learned, kind of thing, and so they become quite

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<v Speaker 4>good at this. And it's if somebody's from the Palaest interview,

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<v Speaker 4>if they're being oppressed like they have been and they've

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<v Speaker 4>been denied freedoms and everything else. They will do whatever

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<v Speaker 4>they can to try and cantinue to resist, and that's

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<v Speaker 4>that's what they have been doing.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know they built up.

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<v Speaker 4>Years before this, so you can't undo years worth of preparation,

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<v Speaker 4>even in whatever it is now seventeen months.

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<v Speaker 2>I guess you're just pivoting over to the Houthis and

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<v Speaker 2>the military strikes on the Houthi rebels and yam And

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<v Speaker 2>what's your take on that. I'm not a real big

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<v Speaker 2>fan of launching missiles into countries against whom we have

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<v Speaker 2>no declaration of war. I'm a pretty strict constitutional attolitic

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<v Speaker 2>when it comes to that. So you know, I just

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<v Speaker 2>I keep looking for the day when some other country

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<v Speaker 2>is going to decide, you know, Donald Trump is a

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<v Speaker 2>war criminal and launch a rocket from their country and

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<v Speaker 2>try to blow him up because the technology is like

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<v Speaker 2>right there. So beyond my practical and constitutionally based arguments,

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<v Speaker 2>they are shooting missiles at our vessels.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, they in this particular case, we launched the first strikes.

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<v Speaker 4>They they had announced they had. When the Israeli ceasefire

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<v Speaker 4>went into effect with Hamas, so too did the Houthis.

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<v Speaker 4>So they stopped bombing the Red Sea shipping at that time,

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<v Speaker 4>but they announced it because Israel had gone back on

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<v Speaker 4>the ceasefire agreement and had blocked all the food ad

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<v Speaker 4>for the entire Gauza strip. Then they said, okay, if

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<v Speaker 4>you don't release that, then we're gonna stop quit our

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<v Speaker 4>ceasefire and we're going to continue attacking shipping. So before

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<v Speaker 4>they did, then the United States took action and launched this. Now,

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<v Speaker 4>then the Hoothi side said, okay, well, now then we're

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<v Speaker 4>not going to stop at all. In fact, we're going

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<v Speaker 4>to start attacking your ships as well. So far the

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<v Speaker 4>attacks have not succeeded. But you know, I worry about

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<v Speaker 4>what happens on the day when just one of those

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<v Speaker 4>missiles or one of those drones gets through our defenses

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<v Speaker 4>and that almost happened during the Body administration and strikes

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<v Speaker 4>an American warship, because then the outcry is going to

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<v Speaker 4>be huge that oh it wasn't just the Hoothies, it

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<v Speaker 4>was only because of Iran, and that's going to be

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<v Speaker 4>used as a causes Spella to expand the war further,

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<v Speaker 4>and back to your constitutionalist issue that has to go

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<v Speaker 4>through Congress.

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<v Speaker 1>But I fear it won't. No, it won't.

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<v Speaker 2>There'd be some authorization to use of military force, which

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<v Speaker 2>is not a declaration of war, and then they'll have

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<v Speaker 2>that laying around for the next twenty years as an

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<v Speaker 2>excuse to launch missiles and rockets literally anywhere in the world.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, that's what happened with the author's issue used

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<v Speaker 2>the military force when it came to the global war

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<v Speaker 2>on terrorism.

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<v Speaker 4>Right yeah, And you know, I'm aside from all of

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<v Speaker 4>those important issues, there's also the military aspect, and this

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<v Speaker 4>is just a militarily unattainable task. I mean, the Houthis

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<v Speaker 4>have shown since twenty fifteen. They had nearly a decade

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<v Speaker 4>of war with Saudi Arabia with our help under the

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<v Speaker 4>starting on the Obomba administration, and they tried to bomb

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<v Speaker 4>the Houthis into subservience and it never worked, happened, and

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<v Speaker 4>then the Israels joined in after ten seven and we

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<v Speaker 4>along with the Biden administration, it never stopped them because

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, they're just too resilient there. They're used to that.

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<v Speaker 4>They have a lot of this stuff buried in sides

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<v Speaker 4>of mountains, et cetera. They have a lot of mobile launchers,

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<v Speaker 4>and they have the indigenous ability to produce it. It's

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<v Speaker 4>not unlock what people say all the time. It's not

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<v Speaker 4>just coming from Iran. They have their own capacity as well.

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<v Speaker 4>And so we if we think that we're going to

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<v Speaker 4>bomb them into submission and you know, and make them stop,

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<v Speaker 4>I think we're going to find out all it's going

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<v Speaker 4>to do is make.

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<v Speaker 1>Them do more.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and they have the will to continue to fight,

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<v Speaker 2>and it's pivoting over. Speaking of will to fight, the

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<v Speaker 2>Ukrainians and the Russians look like Vladimir Putin's got a

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<v Speaker 2>list of demands and you and I were been speculating

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<v Speaker 2>on what they might include, and I've come to understand

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<v Speaker 2>that an absolute guarantee that there's no military presence there

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<v Speaker 2>peacekeeping forces from NATO, but also a guarantee that Ukraine

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<v Speaker 2>will never get into NATO. So how's that going to

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<v Speaker 2>work out? I know Bill Clinton renegged on the promise

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<v Speaker 2>to the Russians and allowed Poland into NATO, or at

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<v Speaker 2>least he was largely responsible for that it happened under

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<v Speaker 2>his watch. Is a promise if it's conceded that they'll

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<v Speaker 2>never enter NATO, is that something that can be counted on?

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<v Speaker 1>Well? And that's one of the big things that actually

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<v Speaker 1>the Russian side is saying. It's it's almost a I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know what the word is.

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<v Speaker 4>A thing that the US always in the West a

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<v Speaker 4>large always says, well, we can't trust Putin, we can't

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<v Speaker 4>trust the papers written on Well, from their perspective, the

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<v Speaker 4>exact same thing is true in reverse. They won't trust

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<v Speaker 4>what we have said because we have gone back on

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<v Speaker 4>so many things.

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<v Speaker 1>And I could listen a lot more to what you

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<v Speaker 1>just note here.

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<v Speaker 4>So what that tells me is that the Russian side,

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<v Speaker 4>from a position of strength, is not going to rely

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<v Speaker 4>on the trust that will do things, but that they're

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<v Speaker 4>going to have to have some actions.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think one of the key ones.

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<v Speaker 4>Is that it doesn't get talked about very much in

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<v Speaker 4>the Western media for some reason, but it does on

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<v Speaker 4>the Russian side is the demilitarization aspect of Putin's conditions,

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<v Speaker 4>which is a reduction according to some of the statements

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<v Speaker 4>coming out of the Deduma a few months a couple

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<v Speaker 4>of months back. Is that they say, hey, you're going

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<v Speaker 4>to only have an army of eighty five thousand something

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<v Speaker 4>along the lines of the Versailles Treaty that ended World

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<v Speaker 4>War one on the Germans, and they said, that's what

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<v Speaker 4>we're going to rely on. So then they don't have

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<v Speaker 4>to worry about whether or not you're going to keep

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<v Speaker 4>your word. But if they have a small army, then

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<v Speaker 4>they won't be able to threaten Russia on their on

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<v Speaker 4>their border.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh.

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<v Speaker 4>That's gonna be the hardest, one of the hardest ones,

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<v Speaker 4>other than they would have to give away more territory

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<v Speaker 4>of the Ukraine side than they have already.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah. Uh, And it's hard for.

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<v Speaker 4>Me to see how that's going to be diplomatically agreed to.

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<v Speaker 1>But that's where we are.

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<v Speaker 2>So absent a diplomatic agreement, which is going to obviously

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<v Speaker 2>require some significant concessions by Ukraine, this is just going

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<v Speaker 2>to keep going then, and Russia's continuing to fight right now.

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<v Speaker 1>They are.

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<v Speaker 4>They have just almost completely cleared out the cursed Pocket,

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<v Speaker 4>which had started last August.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh.

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<v Speaker 4>That was a presumed to be in a negotiating chip

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<v Speaker 4>in the hand of Zelensky to try and trade away something.

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<v Speaker 4>Well that's now gone, so he doesn't have anything to trade.

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<v Speaker 4>But that also underscores that Ukraine doesn't have the military

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<v Speaker 4>capacity to hold on to anything. Ergo, they don't have

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<v Speaker 4>the power to demand that the Russian side does anything,

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<v Speaker 4>and Russia says, hey, we have this whole system in

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<v Speaker 4>place here, we can continue fighting for another year, two years,

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<v Speaker 4>if we need to. They have that mentality, they have

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<v Speaker 4>that capacity, so they don't have to have a negotiated settlement,

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<v Speaker 4>unlike the Ukraine side does.

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<v Speaker 1>They have to because they can't keep fighting forever.

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<v Speaker 4>They're already in a significant deficit every month on the

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<v Speaker 4>number of casualties they have, bust how many people they

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<v Speaker 4>bring in because a lot of those dessert and the

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<v Speaker 4>quality is poor and poorer every month.

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<v Speaker 2>So the time and the cards are not on the

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<v Speaker 2>Ukraine side. Well, and I suppose practically speaking, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>to the extent someone perceives that Russia can roll over

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<v Speaker 2>the entirety of Ukraine, that will be you know, they'd

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<v Speaker 2>be fighting guerrilla warfare against all the Russian troops from

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<v Speaker 2>now until forever. They could just occupy the Russian areas

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<v Speaker 2>and be like occupied France and World War Two. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>you had Vshi and you had Paris, but there were

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<v Speaker 2>areas that were completely controlled by the Nazis. You'll have

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<v Speaker 2>areas that are completely controlled by the Russian military and

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<v Speaker 2>they'll call it their own. It just won't be a

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<v Speaker 2>negotiated treaty, right.

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<v Speaker 4>And that's exactly what the Russians are Many Russians are

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<v Speaker 4>saying that they there's this areas they call it Novo Russia,

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<v Speaker 4>New Russia, which which compasses all the way through the

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<v Speaker 4>Danepa River in the north up to Kiev and then

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<v Speaker 4>pass the Danepa River beyond Odessa to Transnistria and Moldova

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<v Speaker 4>in the south. And those are primarily and predominantly ethnic

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<v Speaker 4>Russian people, so they would not have as much Now.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that there probably would still be some because

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<v Speaker 4>it's not all ethnic Russians, and some would have an

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<v Speaker 4>incentive to keep that going for a long time. So

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<v Speaker 4>I suspect that would be an issue. But Russia doesn't

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<v Speaker 4>want all the other areas to the west, where it's

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<v Speaker 4>significant anti Russian Western Ukrainians who hate Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>They wouldn't have any interest in doing that. They wouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>even try.

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<v Speaker 4>They just want what they can control, and that Danepa

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<v Speaker 4>River is a big deal because that provides a great

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<v Speaker 4>military success or defense as well to a natural barrier

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<v Speaker 4>that can be effectively defended. That's what they're looking for

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<v Speaker 4>to defend their western border. That's what I think could

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<v Speaker 4>happen if we don't get a negotiated settlement.

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<v Speaker 2>It looks like that's what's going to happen, regardless of

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<v Speaker 2>a negotiated set of And Daniel Davis Deep Die find

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<v Speaker 2>him online when you get your podcast. Daniel Davis every

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<v Speaker 2>Tuesday here on the fifty five K Same Morning Shaw.

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<v Speaker 2>I'll look forward to another conversation next week.

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<v Speaker 1>Daniel.

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<v Speaker 2>It's always been great. And Brian, take care of my

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<v Speaker 2>good friend. Eight forty three, fifty five krc DE talk station.

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<v Speaker 2>We're gonna have our Ask the Expert debt from odoregsit

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<v Speaker 2>coming on next stick around for that.

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<v Speaker 1>I'll be right back.

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<v Speaker 4>This is fifty five KARC an iHeartRadio Station.

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<v Speaker 1>Credit card debt