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Speaker 2: It's a thirty here fifty five ks the Talk station
Speaker 2: are very happy Tuesday to you. Always made extra special
Speaker 2: happy at this time because we get the Daniel Davis
Speaker 2: Deep Dive retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis joining the program
Speaker 2: to talk about global conflict every Tuesday. Welcome back, Daniel Davis.
Speaker 2: Love having you on the show.
Speaker 1: Always late to be back, Brian, thanks for having me.
Speaker 2: Well, we've got, of course Russia, Ukraine and some of
Speaker 2: the list of demands coming from Russia.
Speaker 1: We'll get to that in a minute.
Speaker 2: I wanted to start this morning with Israel and Hamas
Speaker 2: because Israel started striking, hitting targets in Gaza again, Hamas
Speaker 2: refusing to release any of the hostages. I guess I
Speaker 2: kind of question whether or not they're still alive. I
Speaker 2: think a lot of people believe that they probably aren't.
Speaker 2: They had been kept in horrific conditions, but nonetheless, the
Speaker 2: bombing resumes. What's your take on this deteriorating situation? And
Speaker 2: I guess the follow up question we can get to it.
Speaker 2: Do you perceive that there will be a tax on Iran,
Speaker 2: since Iran is the one that's providing with all the
Speaker 2: weapons and armaments.
Speaker 4: Well, you know, it's a bad situation. I mean, there's
Speaker 4: nothing good about it for anybody. It's not good for Israel,
Speaker 4: it's not good for the US, definitely not good for
Speaker 4: the Palast any people. And you know a lot of
Speaker 4: people were concerned from the beginning that this ceasefire was
Speaker 4: not going to hold, that it was not going to
Speaker 4: get to levels two and three. And in fact, neither
Speaker 4: Israel nor Hamas seemed to be very interested in even
Speaker 4: talking about number two. Both of them are very I
Speaker 4: guess you could say stubborn in a sense that they
Speaker 4: don't want to compromise anything to the other side. And
Speaker 4: as a result, now then you have the war continuing on.
Speaker 4: Israel had claimed last night that they had evidence that
Speaker 4: there was going to be another offensive move. I thought
Speaker 4: that was a bit odd from the Hamas side, and
Speaker 4: apparently this was a preemptiy strike against that. We don't
Speaker 4: have any independent knowledge of it, but all I can
Speaker 4: tell you is that the continuing of the war. There's
Speaker 4: no end in this, there's no achievable military objective here.
Speaker 4: It's just the resumption of the killing, and it's just
Speaker 4: going to harden the positions on both sides. We saw
Speaker 4: how Hamas weathered the storm for the first sixteen months,
Speaker 4: there's no reason to think they can't do it again.
Speaker 4: And I really, really really hope that this does not
Speaker 4: expand into Iran because that won't solve anything. I mean,
Speaker 4: the Gaza strip has been hermetically sealed for the since
Speaker 4: October seventh, twenty three, so they're not getting anything new
Speaker 4: from Iran. So I don't think we should use that
Speaker 4: as a causus bell out to expand the war because
Speaker 4: all that will do was cause more killing, and it
Speaker 4: can cause more problems for us and it won't solve anything.
Speaker 4: So I really hope they find a way to avoid that.
Speaker 2: Well, if nothing's getting in, Hamas is going to eventually
Speaker 2: run out of things to throw at Israel.
Speaker 4: I suppose well eventually, but see, because the hamaside had
Speaker 4: foreseen this from the beginning, and so one of the
Speaker 4: things we discovered during the seas far when Hamas had
Speaker 4: come up, was that the tunnel network was much much
Speaker 4: more elaborate than even the best case we thought, and
Speaker 4: that they have enormous stockpiles of all the different categories
Speaker 4: of things.
Speaker 1: You need to continue fighting.
Speaker 4: So that's not locked me to go away anytime soon,
Speaker 4: because they have just so much of.
Speaker 1: It stored up. Unfortunately.
Speaker 2: Well, you know, there's a lot of parallels I guess
Speaker 2: you could draw between Ukraine and Russia on that too.
Speaker 2: Nobody wants to capitulate, nobody wants to give up any sides,
Speaker 2: and nobody wants to give any ground because it's going
Speaker 2: to viewed as a concession or they'll lose face or something,
Speaker 2: I don't know, in order to prevent the loss of life.
Speaker 2: I think these kind of positions may be a bit
Speaker 2: childish and people should be a little bit more objective
Speaker 2: about the circumstances. But as you point out, and it
Speaker 2: just it sort of occurred to because it does from
Speaker 2: time to time. You know, the guys is not that
Speaker 2: big of a territory. And when you think of all
Speaker 2: these tunnels that were yet unknown and how long it's
Speaker 2: taken to find them, and they haven't even found all
Speaker 2: of them, it really does illustrate when you look at
Speaker 2: the size and might of the Israeli army and their
Speaker 2: intelligence capabilities, which are purportedly some of the best in
Speaker 2: the world. How difficult and challenging it is even to
Speaker 2: deal with a very small piece or real estate.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it's hugely I mean it's small in
Speaker 4: the sense of like on a national level. Yeah, but
Speaker 4: it's I think it's like twenty twenty something miles long,
Speaker 4: So it's not small, you know, per se. You know,
Speaker 4: it's a pretty large area and there are two million
Speaker 4: people living in there, almost on top of one another,
Speaker 4: so it is very very dense, and you know, you
Speaker 4: just can't go in there and find all of these
Speaker 4: things because these people are really good at hiding them.
Speaker 4: I mean they're they're as smart as anybody else in
Speaker 4: the world, and they've have found ways to hide these
Speaker 4: things from these raels, and they're good at doing that.
Speaker 4: They did this or the Hosbola did similar things in
Speaker 4: the Lebanon area in the north of Israel. Center and
Speaker 4: those that kind of knowledge is transferred around, they're able
Speaker 4: to share back and forth through various means, you know,
Speaker 4: lessons learned, kind of thing, and so they become quite
Speaker 4: good at this. And it's if somebody's from the Palaest interview,
Speaker 4: if they're being oppressed like they have been and they've
Speaker 4: been denied freedoms and everything else. They will do whatever
Speaker 4: they can to try and cantinue to resist, and that's
Speaker 4: that's what they have been doing.
Speaker 1: And you know they built up.
Speaker 4: Years before this, so you can't undo years worth of preparation,
Speaker 4: even in whatever it is now seventeen months.
Speaker 2: I guess you're just pivoting over to the Houthis and
Speaker 2: the military strikes on the Houthi rebels and yam And
Speaker 2: what's your take on that. I'm not a real big
Speaker 2: fan of launching missiles into countries against whom we have
Speaker 2: no declaration of war. I'm a pretty strict constitutional attolitic
Speaker 2: when it comes to that. So you know, I just
Speaker 2: I keep looking for the day when some other country
Speaker 2: is going to decide, you know, Donald Trump is a
Speaker 2: war criminal and launch a rocket from their country and
Speaker 2: try to blow him up because the technology is like
Speaker 2: right there. So beyond my practical and constitutionally based arguments,
Speaker 2: they are shooting missiles at our vessels.
Speaker 4: Well, they in this particular case, we launched the first strikes.
Speaker 4: They they had announced they had. When the Israeli ceasefire
Speaker 4: went into effect with Hamas, so too did the Houthis.
Speaker 4: So they stopped bombing the Red Sea shipping at that time,
Speaker 4: but they announced it because Israel had gone back on
Speaker 4: the ceasefire agreement and had blocked all the food ad
Speaker 4: for the entire Gauza strip. Then they said, okay, if
Speaker 4: you don't release that, then we're gonna stop quit our
Speaker 4: ceasefire and we're going to continue attacking shipping. So before
Speaker 4: they did, then the United States took action and launched this. Now,
Speaker 4: then the Hoothi side said, okay, well, now then we're
Speaker 4: not going to stop at all. In fact, we're going
Speaker 4: to start attacking your ships as well. So far the
Speaker 4: attacks have not succeeded. But you know, I worry about
Speaker 4: what happens on the day when just one of those
Speaker 4: missiles or one of those drones gets through our defenses
Speaker 4: and that almost happened during the Body administration and strikes
Speaker 4: an American warship, because then the outcry is going to
Speaker 4: be huge that oh it wasn't just the Hoothies, it
Speaker 4: was only because of Iran, and that's going to be
Speaker 4: used as a causes Spella to expand the war further,
Speaker 4: and back to your constitutionalist issue that has to go
Speaker 4: through Congress.
Speaker 1: But I fear it won't. No, it won't.
Speaker 2: There'd be some authorization to use of military force, which
Speaker 2: is not a declaration of war, and then they'll have
Speaker 2: that laying around for the next twenty years as an
Speaker 2: excuse to launch missiles and rockets literally anywhere in the world.
Speaker 2: I mean, that's what happened with the author's issue used
Speaker 2: the military force when it came to the global war
Speaker 2: on terrorism.
Speaker 4: Right yeah, And you know, I'm aside from all of
Speaker 4: those important issues, there's also the military aspect, and this
Speaker 4: is just a militarily unattainable task. I mean, the Houthis
Speaker 4: have shown since twenty fifteen. They had nearly a decade
Speaker 4: of war with Saudi Arabia with our help under the
Speaker 4: starting on the Obomba administration, and they tried to bomb
Speaker 4: the Houthis into subservience and it never worked, happened, and
Speaker 4: then the Israels joined in after ten seven and we
Speaker 4: along with the Biden administration, it never stopped them because
Speaker 4: I mean, they're just too resilient there. They're used to that.
Speaker 4: They have a lot of this stuff buried in sides
Speaker 4: of mountains, et cetera. They have a lot of mobile launchers,
Speaker 4: and they have the indigenous ability to produce it. It's
Speaker 4: not unlock what people say all the time. It's not
Speaker 4: just coming from Iran. They have their own capacity as well.
Speaker 4: And so we if we think that we're going to
Speaker 4: bomb them into submission and you know, and make them stop,
Speaker 4: I think we're going to find out all it's going
Speaker 4: to do is make.
Speaker 1: Them do more.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they have the will to continue to fight,
Speaker 2: and it's pivoting over. Speaking of will to fight, the
Speaker 2: Ukrainians and the Russians look like Vladimir Putin's got a
Speaker 2: list of demands and you and I were been speculating
Speaker 2: on what they might include, and I've come to understand
Speaker 2: that an absolute guarantee that there's no military presence there
Speaker 2: peacekeeping forces from NATO, but also a guarantee that Ukraine
Speaker 2: will never get into NATO. So how's that going to
Speaker 2: work out? I know Bill Clinton renegged on the promise
Speaker 2: to the Russians and allowed Poland into NATO, or at
Speaker 2: least he was largely responsible for that it happened under
Speaker 2: his watch. Is a promise if it's conceded that they'll
Speaker 2: never enter NATO, is that something that can be counted on?
Speaker 1: Well? And that's one of the big things that actually
Speaker 1: the Russian side is saying. It's it's almost a I
Speaker 1: don't know what the word is.
Speaker 4: A thing that the US always in the West a
Speaker 4: large always says, well, we can't trust Putin, we can't
Speaker 4: trust the papers written on Well, from their perspective, the
Speaker 4: exact same thing is true in reverse. They won't trust
Speaker 4: what we have said because we have gone back on
Speaker 4: so many things.
Speaker 1: And I could listen a lot more to what you
Speaker 1: just note here.
Speaker 4: So what that tells me is that the Russian side,
Speaker 4: from a position of strength, is not going to rely
Speaker 4: on the trust that will do things, but that they're
Speaker 4: going to have to have some actions.
Speaker 1: And I think one of the key ones.
Speaker 4: Is that it doesn't get talked about very much in
Speaker 4: the Western media for some reason, but it does on
Speaker 4: the Russian side is the demilitarization aspect of Putin's conditions,
Speaker 4: which is a reduction according to some of the statements
Speaker 4: coming out of the Deduma a few months a couple
Speaker 4: of months back. Is that they say, hey, you're going
Speaker 4: to only have an army of eighty five thousand something
Speaker 4: along the lines of the Versailles Treaty that ended World
Speaker 4: War one on the Germans, and they said, that's what
Speaker 4: we're going to rely on. So then they don't have
Speaker 4: to worry about whether or not you're going to keep
Speaker 4: your word. But if they have a small army, then
Speaker 4: they won't be able to threaten Russia on their on
Speaker 4: their border.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 4: That's gonna be the hardest, one of the hardest ones,
Speaker 4: other than they would have to give away more territory
Speaker 4: of the Ukraine side than they have already.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Uh, And it's hard for.
Speaker 4: Me to see how that's going to be diplomatically agreed to.
Speaker 1: But that's where we are.
Speaker 2: So absent a diplomatic agreement, which is going to obviously
Speaker 2: require some significant concessions by Ukraine, this is just going
Speaker 2: to keep going then, and Russia's continuing to fight right now.
Speaker 1: They are.
Speaker 4: They have just almost completely cleared out the cursed Pocket,
Speaker 4: which had started last August.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 4: That was a presumed to be in a negotiating chip
Speaker 4: in the hand of Zelensky to try and trade away something.
Speaker 4: Well that's now gone, so he doesn't have anything to trade.
Speaker 4: But that also underscores that Ukraine doesn't have the military
Speaker 4: capacity to hold on to anything. Ergo, they don't have
Speaker 4: the power to demand that the Russian side does anything,
Speaker 4: and Russia says, hey, we have this whole system in
Speaker 4: place here, we can continue fighting for another year, two years,
Speaker 4: if we need to. They have that mentality, they have
Speaker 4: that capacity, so they don't have to have a negotiated settlement,
Speaker 4: unlike the Ukraine side does.
Speaker 1: They have to because they can't keep fighting forever.
Speaker 4: They're already in a significant deficit every month on the
Speaker 4: number of casualties they have, bust how many people they
Speaker 4: bring in because a lot of those dessert and the
Speaker 4: quality is poor and poorer every month.
Speaker 2: So the time and the cards are not on the
Speaker 2: Ukraine side. Well, and I suppose practically speaking, you know,
Speaker 2: to the extent someone perceives that Russia can roll over
Speaker 2: the entirety of Ukraine, that will be you know, they'd
Speaker 2: be fighting guerrilla warfare against all the Russian troops from
Speaker 2: now until forever. They could just occupy the Russian areas
Speaker 2: and be like occupied France and World War Two. You know,
Speaker 2: you had Vshi and you had Paris, but there were
Speaker 2: areas that were completely controlled by the Nazis. You'll have
Speaker 2: areas that are completely controlled by the Russian military and
Speaker 2: they'll call it their own. It just won't be a
Speaker 2: negotiated treaty, right.
Speaker 4: And that's exactly what the Russians are Many Russians are
Speaker 4: saying that they there's this areas they call it Novo Russia,
Speaker 4: New Russia, which which compasses all the way through the
Speaker 4: Danepa River in the north up to Kiev and then
Speaker 4: pass the Danepa River beyond Odessa to Transnistria and Moldova
Speaker 4: in the south. And those are primarily and predominantly ethnic
Speaker 4: Russian people, so they would not have as much Now.
Speaker 4: I think that there probably would still be some because
Speaker 4: it's not all ethnic Russians, and some would have an
Speaker 4: incentive to keep that going for a long time. So
Speaker 4: I suspect that would be an issue. But Russia doesn't
Speaker 4: want all the other areas to the west, where it's
Speaker 4: significant anti Russian Western Ukrainians who hate Russia.
Speaker 1: They wouldn't have any interest in doing that. They wouldn't
Speaker 1: even try.
Speaker 4: They just want what they can control, and that Danepa
Speaker 4: River is a big deal because that provides a great
Speaker 4: military success or defense as well to a natural barrier
Speaker 4: that can be effectively defended. That's what they're looking for
Speaker 4: to defend their western border. That's what I think could
Speaker 4: happen if we don't get a negotiated settlement.
Speaker 2: It looks like that's what's going to happen, regardless of
Speaker 2: a negotiated set of And Daniel Davis Deep Die find
Speaker 2: him online when you get your podcast. Daniel Davis every
Speaker 2: Tuesday here on the fifty five K Same Morning Shaw.
Speaker 2: I'll look forward to another conversation next week.
Speaker 1: Daniel.
Speaker 2: It's always been great. And Brian, take care of my
Speaker 2: good friend. Eight forty three, fifty five krc DE talk station.
Speaker 2: We're gonna have our Ask the Expert debt from odoregsit
Speaker 2: coming on next stick around for that.
Speaker 1: I'll be right back.
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