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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everybody, and it's time for full

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court press. I hope everyone had a great weekend and Rob,

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I had a pretty good weekend.

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Speaker 2: I ended up getting a nice win. Would see EDDI yesterday?

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Speaker 1: Of course it's always a you know, when they win

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and I bet them, that's a double great day for me.

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Speaker 2: But it goes the other way.

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Speaker 1: If I would have bet them and they would lose,

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it would be double bad day. But yesterday we get

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in there. I only played for Sunday a win with

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the Sienna Saints. They win and cover easily, two and

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one on Saturday for me, and then a pretty good

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week overall. So Rob, you know, how is your weekend

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and what else do you got going on?

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Speaker 3: I was like you yesterday, just one play. I didn't

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like much on the board, Adam, I thought the lines

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were pretty good. And then in retrospect, you know, we

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always have our list that we shaved down. In retrospect,

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if I had left a couple extras, on would have

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had some. But that's okay, We'll take the one. And

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oh it was the Wisconsin Badgers at home against Iowa

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late two and a half win by thirteen, So good

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news there Saturday's play or Saturday's card came up as

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a minus and two big ones that really dictated my day, Adam,

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where the cal State Northridge team total over which we

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used on last call with Kelly destined to get to

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ninety five the whole way and just on the breaks

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for the last eight minutes. Kind of strange out of

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Northridge to do that, but they land seventy eight, a

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little bit short and hooked to start the day with

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Valparizo and Illinois Chicago, I believe it was over one

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thirty eight and a half, got to one thirty eight.

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A couple of miss free throws and you have the

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difference in your day. But now overall pretty good. Friday

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was nice. So again, season's been great. Top five spot

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in Monk's Wager Talk candicappers for the entire season, number

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two since December, first two months of plus forty three units.

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I think, so we're not gonna complain at this time

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of year, but eventually, I think I remember, back way

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back when we started, used to say, you know, these

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things are gonna start to go your way, and eventually

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you remember them when they hurt. But they do go

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the other way, and you tend to just count those

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as when oh yeah, that was just an easy winner

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by half of them. Yeah, it kind of strange the

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mind of a sports better. But we'll get to it today.

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On what say, I mean, how short could they make

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this card for us?

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Speaker 1: Adam, dear Lord, Yeah they got Well, let's let's get

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right into it and oho, yeah we will. Total bases

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will be back, and actually I believe we're gonna go

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to six days a week on total basis as well,

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Monday through Saturday, so we'll be back pitchers and cat well,

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actually we started playing spring training games this weekend, Rob,

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baseball is that close where there was was spring training

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being played? I think as early as Friday or Saturday

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they started to I usually start to For me, I

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usually start to watch spring training, like really watch the

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games like mid March when when guys have gotten a

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couple of reps in. Now some of the pitchers are

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getting stretched out. So I won't watch a ton of

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spring training ball before then, too locked in on college

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basketball to do that. And so let's lock in on

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this slate, Rob. Yeah, you mentioned they gave us two

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huge games with like top twenty five teams, so we've

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got two big time matchups and then like the lowest

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of the low extra board type type, you know, couple Southland,

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maybe a swack.

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Speaker 2: So really no in between.

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Speaker 1: It is two blockbuster games for Monday on Big Monday,

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and then I think six extra board games. Let's start

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with I mean they're both pretty big games. Let's start

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with the sort of feature of the day out at

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Allen Field House, Rob amazingly and this got this got

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some run when Kansas knocked off Arizona without Darren Peterson,

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Bill self, I don't believe he's ever lost on Big

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Monday at Allen Fieldhouse. I think it's something like forty

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to zero. A crazy run on Monday night home games

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for Bill self at Kansas. Now that's obviously in jeopardy

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tonight because we know Houston's a very very good basketball team,

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very capable of winning in there, and Houston, if they

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don't win in there, is about they would lose their

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third straight game. So like the spot, people have to

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just be in shambles here, Rob, because I have a.

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Speaker 2: Feeling they want to bet both of these teams.

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Speaker 1: Kansas coming off a loss, an ugly loss that was

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one of the more surprising results of the weekend. Kansas

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is just getting blown out at home by Cincinnati, and

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then I think we you know, Houston came up on

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our show on Saturday with Kelly that was more.

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Speaker 2: That was almost just as surprising.

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Speaker 1: I know they I know Arizona is a really good team,

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and you should never be surprised if the Arizona Wildcats

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win a game. But I felt like Houston was just

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in an in sort of like the perfect setup to

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win that game over the weekend, and they dropped their

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second straight game. So two teams coming in bolt in

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the spot, Rob, What do you make of that, Houston

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and Kansas Allen Field House.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess we take the spot, We crumple it up,

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and we throw it in the garbage can and move

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on to what's next on the list of handicapping angles

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at him Because you're right, who wouldn't want Houston off

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of two consecutive losses. Of course you would. But then again,

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like you say, you have to deal with Kansas at

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Allenfield House on Monday night off of lost themselves, a

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loss in which FLORYD. Badunga said, I guess that we

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didn't respect them in terms of Cincinnati, their opponent the other

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day Bill quick or excuse me, Bill's self very quick

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to hop in and say that he doesn't agree with

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that assessment. But that's a player telling you that we

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overlook Cincinnati not good. But it probably means that they'll

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be fired up here. You know, they out of the tunnel,

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dub Kelvin Sampson more of the level headed approach here.

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Don't get too high off or don't get too low

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off of losses. Don't get too high off of wins,

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was one of his quotes. It's part of a journey,

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and you got to accept losses at times. That being said, Houston,

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they were always pushing uphill in that game. I mean

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there was never a moment where Houston had any sort

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of control of that game against Arizona. Fall way behind,

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try to fight back, fall back behind, try to fight back,

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fall behind, try to fight back. They just in the end,

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they just didn't have it. And statistically it wasn't a

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horrible offensive game for the Houston Cougars. I mean, they

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didn't shoot well from three, but they held Arizona to

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twenty five percent from three, so there was no real

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advantage there. The advantage unlike most Houston games, the advantage

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that you can find is inside the arc. Where Arizona

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made twenty two shots for forty four points from two

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and Houston only made twelve for twenty four outscored by

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twenty from two point range. Is very unlike Houston. And

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then I guess the other thing to consider in that

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game was the turnovers by the Houston Cougars. Eighteen and

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a half percent of their possessions went by the wayside

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of turnover for Arizona only five turnovers. And I'll just

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for Arizona for one second. I think I said this

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once before, but we don't say it enough that the

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guard play of Jaden Bradley and Braden Burst, especially Bradley

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with his ball Handley has been talk a lot about

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point guards on this show, Adam. He's one of the

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best point guards in the country that goes a little

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bit under the radar. So brings us to this game

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where I think Houston probably wins the glass edge here

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against Kansas. I would believe they're the better rebounding team overall.

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They're gonna have to make threes, though, Adam, it seems

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to me that Houston has become more dependent on the

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three this year than any year in recent memory, and

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I think it's because they shoot them better. They've got

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more capability from the outside, more weaponry, more options, so

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to speak. But they're going to have to make shots

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right away. Get the Kansas crowd out of it. It's

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not an easy thing to do. Darren Peterson thirty two

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minutes of I don't know, ho Hum basketball against Cincinnati.

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One of seven from three not great. I'd expect to

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bounce back out of him. So you know where I'm

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kind of pushing towards here, and I'm kind of pushing

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towards this game going over the total. Houston's defense, as

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good as it is statistically when I've watched it six seven,

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eight times now, Houston can still be beaten defensively, and

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it comes. It occurs more often, i will say, than

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what I've seen in the past, where teams get good

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shots off against Houston. So Kansas is a team that

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will play with a little bit of tempo at times

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you want to try and run against Houston. This number

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has been pushed from one to thirty five and a

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half all the way to one thirty eight. I'm looking

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now so we can be current. I'm looking at one

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thirty eight and a half, So there's some agreement with

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the over and wow, I'm just gonna say that we're

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repetitive about this every single day, about how lines moved

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during our sixty minutes on the show. But this game

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was just awkwards again. Houston was watching it down to

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one and a half. Yeah, you're seeing it. Yeah, they

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get hit hard, the home underdog now only taking one

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and a half rather than two and a half. That's

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a tough call, Adam. I'll give you the floor obviously

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to talk more about side. But for me, if I

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had to, I could see something in the vicinity of

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a seventy one sixty eight game, which is what you

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need to get paid here if you're playing over probably

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enough bowels to get you there too in this one.

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So that that's where I'll lean. I haven't played yet,

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but that's where I'll lean.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So that is you know, the current, Like you said,

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we do this show in the window where a lot

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of these games start to move, limits increased, so on

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and so forth. And for me, like I'm tempted to

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just come in and take Houston right now, Like that's

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kind of how I that's kind of how I wanted

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to play this regardless. I obviously, you know, wasn't dying

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to lay two and a half. That's a tough number

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to lay in a game like this. But as you said,

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as we are looking at this on the show, Kansas

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gets hit, my guess is My guess is Kansas is

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getting hit. So someone then can come and bet Houston

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the other way and not have to lay the two

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and a half. I think that someone is gonna be

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me as we talk about this, because again it comes

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down to you know, I still think Houston is like

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the better of these two teams. I think you made

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a great point about Houston defensively being not quite the

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team that got to a couple a possession or two

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away from winning the NCAA Tournament last year.

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Speaker 2: I don't think they're quite as good defense.

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Speaker 1: But you know, Kansas, I think has some issues offensively

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that got sort of brushed to the side because they

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had these like great games back to back. So I'll

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highlight the games that I think. I think the pair

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of games against BYU and Arizona really like skyrocketedt Kansas's ranking.

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Speaker 2: To the point where they're a little bit overvalued right now.

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If you go back to the BYU game.

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Speaker 1: Of course, like we have hindsight now to kind of say, man,

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you know, maybe Byu, maybe this this wasn't it this

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year for them. They weren't you know, Rob, you had

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talked about this a lot. They weren't very deep. Once

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teams kind of figured out they could like double devance

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if they wanted to, it became apparent that it was

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Richie Saunders. And so that I'm gonna include Richie Sunders

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because he was still there in that game. He almost

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brought Byu back in that game. And then Rob right,

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and that's kind of it. So you know, that was

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one of those big wins for Kansas, and then the

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other one.

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Speaker 2: The other one was, well they had.

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Speaker 1: Two the Texas Tech game where Peterson kind of hit

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those two big threes and stole it, and then of

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course beating Arizona without Peterson. And because those results all

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came so close to each other, I think we sort

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of like, I think we sort of threw Kansas up

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into this like elite territory when they're not actually quite

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that elite of a team, right, Like they're outside the

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top forty an offensive efficiency on kempound that would would

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you have got that offhand Rob, if I was like,

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it's Kansas, you know, Like, would you have guessed that

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they're outside the top forty offensive efficiency right now with

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with some of the wins they've had of late.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I probably would have taken a moment to think

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about it and then said no, because I think about

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games without Peterson into the lineup. So I probably would

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have thought about it for a second. But you're probably right.

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I would have thought, no, they're inside the top forty.

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Would have been my idea.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so you know, I think that maybe lets the

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Houston defens off the hook, ever so slightly. Of course

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we are judging Houston, you know, on you know, over

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the weekend, even like Arizona's been a top pretty much

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a top five offensive and defensive team all season, and

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so now you turn around to play Kansas. Yes, you're

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at Allen Field House. I understand the you know, sort

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of the how difficult it is to go in there.

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But who's to say Kansas can't go in there and win. Rob,

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It was almost impossible to win at for Titta Center,

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and Arizona turned around and did it in a what

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wasn't the best spot for Arizona this weekend.

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Speaker 2: I'm with Steve. And here's the thing.

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Speaker 1: I bring up the spot like facetiously, I think people

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overrate the spot big time, like just in general, Like

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you can't just be betting spots in college basketball. It's

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a good way to go broke real quick. He says,

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screw the spot method here, both teams have it. Houston

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is better. Expect a nail bier. I'm certainly in on

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the Houston is better. Like if I'm just straight up

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power raking these teams, I got Houston pretty significantly ahead

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of Kansas at this point. Houston's a team that I've

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got in the top ten in both offensive and defensive rating.

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I don't have Kansas in the top ten in either.

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So the question becomes, how how much are you going

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to factor in Allen field House?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 1: And for me, even with giving the maximum home court

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bump to my numbers, so I've got my number and

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then I will subtract or add based on home court.

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If I give Kansas the maximum bump for home court. Here,

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I'm still at Houston minus three point two, right, So,

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and that and that would be I think we can

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both agree that Alan Fieldhouse deserves the max bump. If

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you're not giving Allen Field House at a Monday night

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the Max bump, who are you?

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Speaker 2: Who are you giving maximum home court two?

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Speaker 3: Right?

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Speaker 1: But even with that, Max, I'm still at Houston being

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like slightly over a three point favorite. So I'm sort

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of sitting here like I can get a Hue Houston

285
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money line minus one twenty five. I don't know, but Rob,

286
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that's it's gonna be. It's gonna be hard to pass up.

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I'm I'm it's it's all in the phone. I haven't

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clicked it yet, but I have a feeling that's gonna

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be my parleg and it may make my uh my

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card as well.

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Speaker 2: Well.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 2: The good news is we've got time today.

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Speaker 1: There's not as many games, there's not as many games

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we're gonna have big time opinions on. So I'm gonna

296
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think about that one for a second. But after that

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Kansas money has come in, I'm leaning pretty heavily towards

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just taking that Houston money line and the minus one

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twenty five range.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, if this thing comes down to shooting threes, Adam,

301
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you gotta pick your group of three. Right. If you're Houston,

302
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do you want Fleming Sharp and Uzan that three or

303
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do you want Peterson Counsel and Trey White. It's so even,

304
00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:54,120
and it's so hard. It's such a variable to predict

305
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who's gonna shoot threes better. However, it's hard to kind

306
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of quantify the differences between this team. And I did

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00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:05,799
get done, and I don't want it to be out

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of context. I got done saying Houston doesn't look to

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be the same type of defensive force that they've been

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in the past, and I think that's true. But I

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don't want anybody to think that I sell their toughness

312
00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:18,200
short here. And I think that's the place where when

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I think of this game, Adam, it's kind of if

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00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:23,200
I land on Houston, that's kind of the place where

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00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:26,480
I land on their side is toughness. Like I feel

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00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:29,440
like they're going to get the loose ball over Kansas.

317
00:16:29,559 --> 00:16:31,639
I feel like they're going to get the second chance

318
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over Kansas. You know what I mean, They're just Kansas

319
00:16:35,519 --> 00:16:44,440
to me doesn't register as an elite level physically tough team,

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mentally tough team. And I'll praise Melvin Counsel Junior. Again,

321
00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,279
I just went on and on about Bradley for Arizona,

322
00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,240
but Melvin Council Junior has been phenomenal for this team.

323
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I'd expect him to show up big, but point, you know,

324
00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:01,840
when we do numbers and all this other stuff, you

325
00:17:01,879 --> 00:17:05,559
can't really quantify toughness, all the stuff that doesn't show

326
00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:07,759
up in the box. But that's why I land as

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00:17:07,799 --> 00:17:10,240
Houston being the better team anything that's not inside the

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00:17:10,279 --> 00:17:13,720
box score. Houston's probably better at than Kansas, and the

329
00:17:13,799 --> 00:17:15,759
venue is not gonna affect Houston any.

330
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Speaker 1: Yeah, there's really never been probably a better intangibles guy

331
00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:23,759
than Calvin Samson since he showed up at Houston. I mean,

332
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you want to talk about a team that just gets

333
00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:29,920
it done in like the Gray areas, they do it

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00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:33,079
as pretty much as good as anyone. And also his

335
00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:35,480
ability to game plan. I don't think he's gonna be

336
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thrown off by Peterson in Peterson out. Actually, I think

337
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if Peterson is in, it's almost even better. I think

338
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he's gonna he'll have a great game plan for that.

339
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So I will I have not met this yet, it

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is certainly the way I'm leaning. I'm gonna kind of

341
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probably think about it.

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Speaker 2: Throughout the show.

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Speaker 1: If I do play it while we're on the show,

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I will certainly let you know, and that'll bring me

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to another one that I'm kind of you know right

346
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there on it's the other primetime game, and Rob, we've

347
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got Louisville heading in North Carolina. I started to get actually,

348
00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:10,839
we were well, we were on the show with Kelly

349
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on Saturday. I was getting texts about this, and then

350
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someone actually asked in the chat and so we I said,

351
00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:20,599
like I think Kelly phrased it like Trigg, do you

352
00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:23,880
do you agree with Syracuse getting all sorts of sharp money,

353
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at which point I said no, I said, I don't

354
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know why anyone want this corpse of a basketball team

355
00:18:30,599 --> 00:18:34,440
again getting like to win the game, like I understand

356
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maybe wanting to go against North Carolina. But then again,

357
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it was right around the time, Rob where reports were

358
00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:45,839
coming out that that Vsar might vesser, that Henry Vsar

359
00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:46,519
might play.

360
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Speaker 2: I'm probably destroying his name, apologies in advance.

361
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Speaker 1: And sure enough n C went in to the Carrier

362
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Dome with the JMA Wireless Dome, whatever you want to

363
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call it, and gets an easy win seven seven to

364
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sixty four.

365
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Speaker 2: Uh Vsar plays.

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Speaker 1: Twenty five minutes, nineteen points, so clearly you know he

367
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was a factor. And again I just I just could

368
00:19:11,839 --> 00:19:15,440
not understand the Syracuse love for that game. Now, I

369
00:19:15,519 --> 00:19:18,000
didn't really want to go against it because I'm still

370
00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:21,079
over here, like, okay, like UNC might be a little

371
00:19:21,079 --> 00:19:25,319
bit vulnerable. We saw the game against NC State. They

372
00:19:25,319 --> 00:19:28,200
didn't have much, right, Like, that was the game where

373
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:31,960
they're without two of their top players and they got

374
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,920
they get just rolled eighty two to fifty eight by

375
00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:37,599
an NC State team that hasn't exactly just been pumping

376
00:19:37,599 --> 00:19:42,680
people by margin recently. So, you know, the game before that,

377
00:19:43,039 --> 00:19:45,880
pit UNC ends up being able to win that game

378
00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:50,039
by double digits without you know, still without you know,

379
00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:52,920
without Caleb Wilson, who will still be out, and then

380
00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:57,720
VSAR is obviously back. So I'm over here liking Louisville. Okay,

381
00:19:57,839 --> 00:20:01,039
I want to like Louis Louisville. Bec Uh, I do

382
00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:05,039
think Wilson being out is going to matter against like

383
00:20:05,079 --> 00:20:08,759
a better competition, And Pitt and Syracuse are in such

384
00:20:08,759 --> 00:20:11,240
a bad place right now that I just don't know

385
00:20:11,279 --> 00:20:14,759
that either of those teams truly could expose n SEE

386
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:17,880
being a little bit shorthanded. But the problem here is

387
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:19,960
Louis Louisville hasn't been the same team on the road

388
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:23,240
and they're gonna have to go into the Dean Dome tonight. God,

389
00:20:23,279 --> 00:20:25,440
does this feel a little bit like the game we

390
00:20:25,559 --> 00:20:29,160
just talked about just a little right, Like, So what

391
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:29,960
do we do with this one?

392
00:20:30,079 --> 00:20:32,240
Speaker 2: NC Louisville. Do you have any interest in the road

393
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:33,559
team or do you think it's the heels?

394
00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:36,799
Speaker 3: Yeah? And the problem with these two games, Adham, is

395
00:20:36,839 --> 00:20:39,640
that we don't have a two game series, so we

396
00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:43,279
don't have anything to look back on reflect on a

397
00:20:43,319 --> 00:20:45,319
first meeting between these two you know what I mean.

398
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,079
This is the first meeting between louis the UNC. It's

399
00:20:48,079 --> 00:20:50,680
the first meeting between Houston Kansas, So you have to

400
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:52,599
go into it a little bit half blind, without that

401
00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:54,920
type of data to go back and look at. But

402
00:20:56,640 --> 00:21:00,160
this is it's at the point in time were these

403
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:03,920
games mean everything. These two teams tied in the ACC

404
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,839
for sixth place, but only the top four get to

405
00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:10,000
double buy. So both of these teams scrambling to get

406
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:12,359
to one of those top four spots inside the ACC.

407
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:16,000
And it's not without it's not beyond reach for either

408
00:21:16,039 --> 00:21:18,160
of them. It's sit like a game out of third

409
00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:20,519
both of these teams. So we know the way things

410
00:21:20,559 --> 00:21:24,039
can change within one week of conference play. You play

411
00:21:24,079 --> 00:21:25,920
twice when team goes to and oh you go in

412
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,759
two boom, you get a complete reversal of standings. They're

413
00:21:28,799 --> 00:21:31,519
both in that spot where they're trying to get to

414
00:21:31,559 --> 00:21:37,400
the number four or better position. Let's back, and first

415
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:41,839
of all, I've got your back, because as the Full

416
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:46,599
Court Press Show tries to be one of everybody's favorite

417
00:21:46,599 --> 00:21:51,279
watches among college basketball shows during Monday through Friday, we

418
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:53,319
want to make sure we get our pronunciations right. So

419
00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:55,359
I looked it up this morning because I was going crazy.

420
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:59,000
I know I was saying it wrong. It's Henry. It's

421
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:03,000
actually Enrie, but we'll call him Henry because we're in

422
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:11,839
the States. But Henryvesr ess hyphen R. So we'll get

423
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:13,200
it right the rest of the way. For those of

424
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,880
you tar Heel fans that are watching and are cursing

425
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:18,920
us for butchering, his name is re Vesar. He came

426
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,880
back the other day Saturday, and it is interesting. Like

427
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,240
you said, we talked about this game on Saturday with Kelly,

428
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:30,039
and to me, it's crazy how overreactive the market is.

429
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:34,240
Even with sharp money to injury. There had better report

430
00:22:34,279 --> 00:22:37,000
that Caleb Wilson was working on trying to get back

431
00:22:37,079 --> 00:22:39,319
for that game. He's working on how to play with

432
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,960
the cast or whatever on his other hand, on his

433
00:22:42,039 --> 00:22:47,000
off hand, and he gets ruled out SR. I think

434
00:22:47,039 --> 00:22:50,200
we all knew was probably gonna play. He did play,

435
00:22:50,559 --> 00:22:53,079
but the line tenth goes to Syracuse for no real

436
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:56,240
reason other than injury. UNC blows them out. This is

437
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:59,440
interesting because you talked about Louisville's road WOS. This is

438
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,160
the beginning of a four game stretch where they're gonna

439
00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:05,160
play three on the road, and these four games are important,

440
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:07,400
as I just spoke about in the standing. So for Louisville,

441
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,000
they're gonna have to learn to win on the road

442
00:23:09,319 --> 00:23:11,319
at the most crucial point in the season. For UNC,

443
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,079
it's the opposite that been home much. They get three

444
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:18,279
of the next four at home. Hubert Davis commented on

445
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:23,160
this star returning to the lineup, and it's nothing. We're

446
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:26,200
not breaking news here. But on the offensive end, he

447
00:23:26,319 --> 00:23:29,279
makes a difference for everybody else, obviously because you can

448
00:23:29,319 --> 00:23:31,880
feed the post with him, and on the defensive end,

449
00:23:32,039 --> 00:23:36,440
now they're back to having three huge people at the rim.

450
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:40,200
All of that talked about Adam, I think The biggest

451
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:43,319
difference in this game is UNC is the worst three

452
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:46,599
point field goal percentage defense in the ACC, the worst.

453
00:23:47,039 --> 00:23:49,160
And what's Louisville going to do? Don't walk in there

454
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,839
and bomb threes? Hit fourteen the other day, shot thirty one.

455
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:57,000
But Pat Kelsey's team will come in with mckel Brown.

456
00:23:57,559 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 1: With.

457
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:04,279
Speaker 3: J David or Javion missing his last name now, and

458
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:09,000
also with a host of three point shooters that you

459
00:24:09,039 --> 00:24:11,359
know it's I don't know the UNC can stop them,

460
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,039
to tell you the truth, and Louisville, for what it's worth,

461
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:17,319
is gonna throw up enough of them to where they're

462
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:22,200
probably gonna make double digits. Question is can Louisville defend

463
00:24:22,319 --> 00:24:25,680
UNC on the other end? Honestly, I think they can.

464
00:24:26,839 --> 00:24:30,039
I think Louisville is the better team. Adam roadwros aside,

465
00:24:30,039 --> 00:24:35,079
I just think they're the better team. Money has come toward. Yeah,

466
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:38,519
Louisville one and a half up to two and a half,

467
00:24:38,559 --> 00:24:42,559
but between Brown and Conwell and company, I think they

468
00:24:42,599 --> 00:24:46,079
make enough threes to get it done here. And just

469
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:49,039
to finish up the thought on UNC size, Louisville's got

470
00:24:49,079 --> 00:24:51,920
size too. Let's not forget Louisville's not a small team

471
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:55,839
by any stretch, so I don't know pace is gonna

472
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:59,680
be rapid. We're staring at one sixty two as a total.

473
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,519
I could see them breaking that barrier as well, But

474
00:25:02,559 --> 00:25:05,559
I think Louisville is probably worth the shot here as

475
00:25:05,599 --> 00:25:06,519
the road favorite.

476
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:11,319
Speaker 1: I wouldn't have gone digging through my closet for this

477
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,880
sweet quarters that if I didn't think Louisville was the

478
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:17,039
better team here, just to just to say that. But

479
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,200
like so, I want to go back to a point

480
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:22,039
you made, and I think this is a part of

481
00:25:22,039 --> 00:25:24,640
the reason you see some of these quote unquote like

482
00:25:25,519 --> 00:25:30,839
sharp spots get overblown. Rob, You've been doing this for

483
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:32,920
a long time. I've been doing this for a long time,

484
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,759
and you've been doing this, I mean, would put me

485
00:25:35,839 --> 00:25:39,039
to shame in the years you have in this business

486
00:25:39,079 --> 00:25:42,279
on me. And I can go back to so I

487
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:48,039
first start started doing this professionally back in twenty twelve,

488
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:52,799
and even back then it was hard. It was it

489
00:25:52,839 --> 00:25:58,400
was still harder to get quote unquote legitimate sharp information, Okay,

490
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:02,640
meaning yes, theoretically, So I'm just going to use this,

491
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:06,880
this example from North Carolina on Saturday. Yeah, theoretically, sharp

492
00:26:07,079 --> 00:26:10,079
sharps may have played Syracuse for a reason that's unbeknownst

493
00:26:10,079 --> 00:26:12,200
to us. That could have been they could have been

494
00:26:12,519 --> 00:26:16,440
setting up something, they could have been looking for a

495
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,119
middle or maybe they just you know when I say,

496
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:22,680
they typically a respected group or you know, someone that's

497
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:25,079
gonna be able to get down enough places to move

498
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:27,240
a number, or someone that was respected enough at a

499
00:26:27,319 --> 00:26:31,039
property to move the number, like they have their reasons

500
00:26:31,039 --> 00:26:34,119
for Syracuse. Okay, and so that's so, so we get

501
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:37,599
the thing. Oh well, Syracuse took sharp money. The problem is, now,

502
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:41,480
this information is is pretty easy to get. I mean,

503
00:26:41,519 --> 00:26:44,519
you literally can watch our show and Kelly's coming on

504
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:48,920
and reading off a list that a sportsbook are gave

505
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:51,400
to her. Right, So it's like it's it's not a set.

506
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,000
It's not as big of a secret anymore. That's all

507
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:55,720
fine and good, but what makes it tough is the

508
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:59,839
fact that like everyone out there will run with this info, right,

509
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,799
and then you have maybe you do have a respected

510
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:06,599
entity that played Syracuse, and then all these people piggyback it,

511
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,960
and now suddenly it's starting to move the market past

512
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,319
where it should. That's what I kind of so I

513
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,119
kind of tune that noise out now I don't even

514
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,000
really want to know, nor does it matter to me.

515
00:27:17,319 --> 00:27:19,720
Like you said, yeah, is what does it probably hit

516
00:27:19,759 --> 00:27:22,319
like fifty percent of the time. So that can never

517
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:25,160
be the case because again, of course fifty percent of

518
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:28,160
the time, I mean a coin flip flips the same

519
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:29,200
fifty percent of the time.

520
00:27:29,519 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 2: So that can never be a reason for me. And

521
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,480
I almost think that it's often overblown.

522
00:27:34,079 --> 00:27:38,559
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty six, it's overblown and it and it

523
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:41,759
could go both ways. You know, you might have some

524
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:44,240
and especially now, I think that's what we're seeing within

525
00:27:44,279 --> 00:27:47,880
this hour of our show, Rob, is that some of

526
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:50,880
the money that moves around isn't even legitimate to the

527
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:52,799
respect where it's like a lot of it's just maybe

528
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:56,000
setting up the ability to take the other side at

529
00:27:56,039 --> 00:27:57,799
a later point in time. That's kind of what I

530
00:27:57,799 --> 00:28:01,480
felt like happened with Houston here with Kansas took money

531
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:03,359
at the beginning the ginning of our show knocked this

532
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:05,079
down to one minus one and a half. I would

533
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:07,960
be shocked if they don't come back and take Houston,

534
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,680
because that's the side they actually want a little bit

535
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,440
of A kind of got off topic there, but I really,

536
00:28:14,519 --> 00:28:16,039
you know, kind of thought that was the case with

537
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,640
North Carolina. I guess I'll tie it back in with

538
00:28:18,799 --> 00:28:23,440
saying UNC was a team that you know I after

539
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:25,960
the Duke win, I was like, all right, I do

540
00:28:26,079 --> 00:28:28,720
want to find a spot to play against this team.

541
00:28:29,079 --> 00:28:32,039
Of course I didn't want Miami, but they continue to

542
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:33,519
I guess prove me wrong.

543
00:28:33,839 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 2: I didn't think.

544
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,039
Speaker 1: I don't think Miami's this great team, and yet they

545
00:28:37,079 --> 00:28:37,960
continue to get.

546
00:28:37,799 --> 00:28:38,759
Speaker 2: Result after a result.

547
00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:41,759
Speaker 1: Since then, there really hasn't been a great spot to

548
00:28:41,799 --> 00:28:45,200
go against North Carolina because you had in big time

549
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:48,519
inferior team with Pitt, big time inferior team with Lieuville

550
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,839
with Syracuse, and then the NC State game where yeah,

551
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:53,559
you could have faded UNC, but you would have had

552
00:28:53,599 --> 00:28:56,160
to lay like seven points. So this is really like

553
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:58,519
the first good spot to do do so, in my opinion,

554
00:28:58,519 --> 00:29:01,480
where you're getting a reasonable number with what I consider

555
00:29:01,519 --> 00:29:04,039
the clear better team and if you can stomach Louisville

556
00:29:04,039 --> 00:29:05,759
on the road, which means they're going to have to

557
00:29:05,799 --> 00:29:08,279
make some shots, and I think that's, you know, the

558
00:29:08,559 --> 00:29:11,400
tough part about this. I think Louisville is like the

559
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,799
clear side that should win this game. But goes back

560
00:29:14,839 --> 00:29:17,359
to our initial discussion, and really what has been the

561
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,839
theme of the first half hour of the show. How

562
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,640
much is unc able to get up a home and

563
00:29:25,759 --> 00:29:29,359
how much does the home spot matter, because again, it's

564
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:32,880
really tough to rule out North Carolina or Kansas winning

565
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:36,359
their respective games in the environment that will likely be

566
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:39,599
in these buildings. Tonight makes for a very interesting big Monday,

567
00:29:39,599 --> 00:29:42,359
if you ask me round, Yeah.

568
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:45,319
Speaker 3: It doesn't. You know, I've got a little tie rade

569
00:29:45,319 --> 00:29:47,359
about how we're gonna get things right. I went back

570
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:52,599
and looked up the you know, revesar and then I wish,

571
00:29:52,759 --> 00:29:54,920
you know, for those that watch us every day, and

572
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:56,400
you know, we come with a lot of this stuff

573
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:59,319
off the top of our heads. And I'm sure Adam

574
00:29:59,359 --> 00:30:01,400
are the same way. In the middle of talking half

575
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,319
the time breaking down games, there's so much going through

576
00:30:04,319 --> 00:30:06,440
my head. I'm kind of like jumping to the next point,

577
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,240
to the next point, to the next point inside my head. Yeah,

578
00:30:09,319 --> 00:30:12,640
try and calm that down. And at some point, like

579
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:15,039
in that cartoon Beavis and butt Head, the light bulb

580
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,440
just short circuits and I wind up calling Javon Hadley

581
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:20,920
jv On Bradley. So bear with me a little bit.

582
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:24,240
There's too many thoughts going on inside here. It's been

583
00:30:24,319 --> 00:30:26,880
thirty three years, by the way, nineteen ninety two that

584
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:29,519
have been in this business. And to your point, real quick,

585
00:30:29,559 --> 00:30:31,200
I met a guy in Las Vegas when I first

586
00:30:31,279 --> 00:30:33,920
got to town, when I was living there for eleven

587
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:36,079
twelve years, and he made that exact point to me.

588
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:39,319
He told me, if you're playing line moves, if you're

589
00:30:39,359 --> 00:30:42,039
strictly walking up, you're like a fifty dollars better, saying,

590
00:30:42,079 --> 00:30:44,200
oh my god, somebody knows something because the line moved

591
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:47,160
on that game. If you're doing that exclusively, you're fifty

592
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:49,119
to fifty better. I think what people have to realize

593
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:53,400
really quick is that line moves they're classified as sharp

594
00:30:53,759 --> 00:30:56,319
all the time. Like we have a we use the

595
00:30:56,319 --> 00:30:59,599
Odds logic system Adam where half the time during the

596
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:02,799
day I hear this voice club and say sharp play short.

597
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:06,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that thing they made that update. That thing

598
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:07,799
goes off every two seconds.

599
00:31:07,839 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 2: I had to mute that.

600
00:31:08,559 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 1: I had to mute the sharp play voice. How many

601
00:31:11,279 --> 00:31:13,799
sharp plays can there be? Rob It never stops, you know.

602
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:17,359
Speaker 3: They're all short plays. But what you have to remember

603
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:20,480
is even these sharp plays, the book makers win a

604
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:23,279
lot of these plays too. So if you're bumping or

605
00:31:23,319 --> 00:31:26,240
if you're bucking a line move, you're not alone. The

606
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:28,599
odds makers are on your side in that instance. So

607
00:31:29,319 --> 00:31:32,319
it works both ways. But real quick, apologies to Javon Hadley.

608
00:31:32,759 --> 00:31:35,279
We're doing our main pronunciation as best we can. And

609
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:38,519
for UNC, last point I'll make about this game, because

610
00:31:38,839 --> 00:31:40,880
you said Louisville's gonna have to make shots. I believe

611
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:43,759
UNC's league worst three point defense will have a lot

612
00:31:43,759 --> 00:31:46,720
to do with Louisville making shots. But if it comes

613
00:31:46,759 --> 00:31:48,279
down to the free throw line at them, one team

614
00:31:48,319 --> 00:31:52,359
shoots them really well Louisville. One team shoots them not

615
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:55,279
great at all UNC. So if it comes down to

616
00:31:55,279 --> 00:31:56,599
the free throw line at the end of the game,

617
00:31:56,799 --> 00:31:59,359
could be a Louisville advantage as well.

618
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 2: All right, we.

619
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,559
Speaker 1: Will move on some good talk about the two big

620
00:32:06,599 --> 00:32:11,599
games tonight, and apologies if you're you know, still just.

621
00:32:11,559 --> 00:32:12,559
Speaker 2: As puzzled as we are.

622
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 1: But I think we I think we led you in

623
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:16,720
a direction there, and like I said, I'll I may

624
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:19,440
use one of those as my parlay leg, but I'm

625
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,160
gonna give it till the end of the show. In

626
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:24,880
the meantime, we're gonna hit We're gonna hit as much

627
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:27,119
of the extra extra board as we can here over

628
00:32:27,119 --> 00:32:30,200
the next twenty five to thirty minutes. Double the firepower

629
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:32,559
CBB package, get you all of my plays, all of

630
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:33,400
Rob's plays.

631
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 2: We have a three day option.

632
00:32:35,559 --> 00:32:37,839
Speaker 1: If you email in to customer support, we'll give you

633
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,599
the rest of the season at a heavily discounted rate.

634
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:43,039
And I can tell you right now, I haven't locked

635
00:32:43,039 --> 00:32:45,920
anything in yet for today. I will have a five

636
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:48,359
percent er tomorrow, like pretty much as soon as as

637
00:32:48,359 --> 00:32:51,960
soon as I'm allowed to post it, which will probably

638
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:53,839
be like first thing in the morning tomorrow, I will

639
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:57,640
I'm already working on Tuesday, and I've definitely got one

640
00:32:57,680 --> 00:32:59,440
that is likely five percent.

641
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 2: So I suppose you know, just you know, if you

642
00:33:02,319 --> 00:33:03,599
do the three day you'll.

643
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:06,799
Speaker 1: At least you'll know you're gonna get a five percenter tomorrow.

644
00:33:08,319 --> 00:33:10,480
But there are options for today, so let's go to Garth.

645
00:33:10,519 --> 00:33:13,079
Appreciate the donation, Garth, and I didn't mean to push

646
00:33:13,119 --> 00:33:15,279
you off for twenty minutes, but I wanted to do

647
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:18,599
a little double feature because we have two massive games

648
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:22,160
followed by a very limited extra board today.

649
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:24,559
Speaker 2: But the I know, I know, our guy buy you

650
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:26,680
bets will be kind of fired.

651
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:28,759
Speaker 1: Up for this slate because it looks like the extra

652
00:33:28,759 --> 00:33:32,400
board is pretty much the Southland Conference in action, and

653
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:37,200
so Garth wants to go out to buy you bets

654
00:33:37,359 --> 00:33:40,920
his hometown home area. I don't know if he grew

655
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:42,519
up there, but I think he either went there or

656
00:33:42,599 --> 00:33:45,920
this is this is where he goes to games. I

657
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:49,759
believe this is Hammond, Louisiana. Keith correct me if I'm wrong.

658
00:33:50,759 --> 00:33:54,079
This is where Southeast Louisiana will host Texas A and

659
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:58,079
M Corpus Christie tonight. And for Garth, he says, give

660
00:33:58,160 --> 00:33:59,039
me Corpus Christy.

661
00:33:59,759 --> 00:34:05,279
Speaker 2: My one and a half Bayou calls it Hammond America.

662
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:05,920
I love that.

663
00:34:07,079 --> 00:34:09,199
Speaker 1: I still have to get down their teeth. Well, probably

664
00:34:09,199 --> 00:34:12,440
next season we will absolutely get to a SELAG game.

665
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:14,079
Speaker 2: It'd be nice if they were like I want them.

666
00:34:14,159 --> 00:34:16,599
Speaker 1: I try to go places when the team teams are good,

667
00:34:17,079 --> 00:34:19,960
so eight and twenty is not gonna cut it. That's

668
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:23,239
what Southeast That's what Southeast Louisiana is on the season.

669
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,440
I watched them play a day game not too long

670
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:30,159
ago against against East Texas A and M, and it

671
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:34,800
was dreadful. Rob They're now five and fourteen in south

672
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:36,920
Land Play. They're in last place. I gotta be honest,

673
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:40,039
that's surprising to me. I did not I did not

674
00:34:40,519 --> 00:34:43,039
have them finishing this finishing last.

675
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:43,440
Speaker 3: In this league.

676
00:34:43,679 --> 00:34:45,119
Speaker 1: I thought they were more of a middle of the

677
00:34:45,159 --> 00:34:48,400
pack team in this league. Corpus Christi coming into the

678
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:49,840
year was one of the ones where I thought was

679
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:52,960
like a little bit overrated by the name, because of

680
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:56,679
course they've had some successive late they get some name recognition,

681
00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:00,000
but they have been the far better of these two teams.

682
00:35:01,119 --> 00:35:03,920
So the question is, you know, do you do you

683
00:35:04,079 --> 00:35:07,280
just roll with Garth and lay the very very cheap

684
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:11,840
money line or minus one and a half or does

685
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:13,920
that seem fishy to you? A and M on the

686
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:16,719
road against the last place team, yet you just pretty

687
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:20,039
much need them to win Southland basketball on a Monday night.

688
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:22,320
Speaker 2: Do you have any thoughts there? And what about the total?

689
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, well you got one to look back on. Because

690
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:28,719
Corpus Christi wins this game first time around sixty eight

691
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:31,519
fifty six. All aspects of that game go their way

692
00:35:31,599 --> 00:35:36,960
pretty much. There's no statistical category where Southeast and Louisiana

693
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:40,480
was better than Corpus Christie at Corpus Christie's home floor. So,

694
00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:43,079
like I say, you do have that in your favor.

695
00:35:43,119 --> 00:35:48,159
And then you know, as somebody who usually in past,

696
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:52,039
let's say the last ten years, somebody who's usually involved

697
00:35:52,679 --> 00:35:56,480
in the south Land Conference a little bit here, maybe

698
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:59,639
the last two years even more because Will Wade was

699
00:35:59,679 --> 00:36:01,440
that Denise that I think a lot of my action

700
00:36:01,599 --> 00:36:05,400
was on McNeese games. But this year I have not

701
00:36:05,559 --> 00:36:09,800
found myself drifting towards the Southland for action, even on

702
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:14,880
totals where obviously the majority of my thought process goes here.

703
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:19,719
I think, in simplistic terms, Corpus Christie we said this

704
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,840
about Houston being what we thought was the better team

705
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:24,679
on the road as a road favorite. I feel like

706
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:26,880
Corpus Christi is the better team on the road short

707
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:29,639
short price road favorite. There's a couple of things in

708
00:36:29,679 --> 00:36:33,719
their favor. Hey, it's hard to expect teams to do

709
00:36:34,599 --> 00:36:38,920
to do you anything well as far as casing tickets

710
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:42,599
is concerned, when they can't shoot the basketball. In Southeast Louisiana,

711
00:36:42,639 --> 00:36:43,880
it's just as one of the worst teams in the

712
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:46,840
league shooting the basketball. Inside conference games, the other side

713
00:36:47,519 --> 00:36:50,239
shoots it a little bit, especially from three and they

714
00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:52,199
get to the free throw line. So those two things

715
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:55,559
combined help you in a game like this. Total is

716
00:36:55,599 --> 00:36:57,920
where I would look in this, Adam, or at least

717
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:02,119
it's the one thing that would have my interest. And

718
00:37:02,199 --> 00:37:05,880
even with my interest at one thirty one, it seems

719
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:08,039
like you can get games. I say this all the

720
00:37:08,039 --> 00:37:11,000
time in modern day basketball, up and over a price

721
00:37:11,039 --> 00:37:15,239
tag of one thirty and a half one thirty one. However,

722
00:37:15,679 --> 00:37:19,199
the brutal shooting of Southeastern Louisiana stops me a little bit.

723
00:37:20,039 --> 00:37:25,760
And without enough background, I'll take what you said and

724
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:28,599
bank it on how horrible it was to watch Southeastern

725
00:37:28,639 --> 00:37:30,559
Louisiana one time this year.

726
00:37:31,559 --> 00:37:32,119
Speaker 2: But you can't.

727
00:37:32,159 --> 00:37:34,599
Speaker 3: I can't trust their offense to do enough here, So

728
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:39,800
for me, very very weak siding with Garth here on

729
00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:42,239
the better team. And the last thing I'll say is

730
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:47,480
where standings are concerned, it's important to corpus Christi here.

731
00:37:48,079 --> 00:37:50,960
They sit in a position where they could actually climb

732
00:37:51,039 --> 00:37:53,039
up a couple of notches in the standings. This week

733
00:37:53,079 --> 00:37:55,000
they're sitting at five. They could get as high as

734
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:58,519
three if things break their way. For Southeastern Louisiana, I'm

735
00:37:58,559 --> 00:38:00,679
not sure what there is to play for unless this

736
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:04,079
is probably senior night down there. I'm not sure. I'd

737
00:38:04,079 --> 00:38:05,599
have to look at the remainder of the schedule, but

738
00:38:05,599 --> 00:38:07,920
a lot of senior Knights are going on, you know.

739
00:38:08,039 --> 00:38:12,559
That kind of stuff helps sometimes in a one for

740
00:38:12,639 --> 00:38:16,199
the gipper type game. I don't know that that's this though,

741
00:38:16,559 --> 00:38:19,400
I would probably still look at Corpus Christy in this spot.

742
00:38:22,039 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm with So that's the only way I

743
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:29,280
could play, would be to just even though even though

744
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:33,320
it's like one of those games where you know you're

745
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:37,199
you're you could be kicking yourself or just playing like

746
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:41,639
what appears to be the very obvious road like one

747
00:38:41,679 --> 00:38:46,199
point favorite listen, Corpus Christy comes off losses to Steven F.

748
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:48,039
Speaker 2: Austin and then on the road to McNeice.

749
00:38:48,519 --> 00:38:50,920
Speaker 1: Not many teams like those are two teams that not

750
00:38:51,039 --> 00:38:52,880
many teams in this league are going to do better

751
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:53,559
than zero and two.

752
00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:54,840
Speaker 2: Again, so no.

753
00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:58,039
Speaker 1: Real shame there, right, Like, and over the weekend, they

754
00:38:58,079 --> 00:39:01,000
actually hung around with McNeice early in the game and

755
00:39:01,039 --> 00:39:02,599
then it kind of got away from them, and I

756
00:39:02,639 --> 00:39:05,639
feel like they almost maybe mentally said, all right, this

757
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:09,360
is kind of the result we expected, right Because of

758
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:10,800
course you know McNeese.

759
00:39:11,079 --> 00:39:11,840
Speaker 2: We've talked about this.

760
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:15,280
Speaker 1: McNeice is a team that has been a little bit

761
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:17,760
vulnerable on the road this year, far more so than

762
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:19,920
they were in the Will Wade era era. But they're

763
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:21,880
still taking care of business at home. So I don't

764
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:25,599
think that Corpus Christy really probably felt like, Yo, they

765
00:39:25,599 --> 00:39:28,199
go into this road trip weekend, right, you're playing McNeice

766
00:39:28,519 --> 00:39:30,719
and you're playing Southeast Louisiana.

767
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 2: Without a doubt they have to like be coming.

768
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:37,119
Speaker 1: In this weekend saying like we can't lose the Southeast

769
00:39:37,159 --> 00:39:38,000
Louisiana game.

770
00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:40,480
Speaker 2: Like we're hitting the road, We've got two games.

771
00:39:41,039 --> 00:39:43,960
Speaker 1: It would be like such a nice bonus to beat McNeice,

772
00:39:44,159 --> 00:39:45,920
but we got to split this trip one and one.

773
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:49,119
We have to at least win the Southeast Louisiana game. Now,

774
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:53,360
had that played out differently on Saturday rob where A

775
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:56,519
and M Corpus Christie found themselves in an absolute dog

776
00:39:56,599 --> 00:39:59,360
fight and then like lost by one, I'd be less

777
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:02,679
inclined to to play them here, right because I'd be like,

778
00:40:03,039 --> 00:40:05,320
you know, if they just had like this crippling defeat

779
00:40:05,559 --> 00:40:07,559
where they put everything into it and then had to

780
00:40:07,599 --> 00:40:10,360
turn around and play another road game. That's bad, but

781
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:14,000
that's not what happened. McNeice pulled away in the second half.

782
00:40:14,039 --> 00:40:16,880
It was a seventy to fifty four final, and I

783
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:20,679
think mentally at Corpus Christie started probably was able to

784
00:40:20,679 --> 00:40:24,360
start focusing on this game. So if you get any

785
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:27,280
sort of like legitimate effort here from Texas A and MCC,

786
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:31,559
I don't see how they lose, right, I just it's

787
00:40:32,119 --> 00:40:34,519
Southeast Louisiana just doesn't put the ball in the basket.

788
00:40:34,559 --> 00:40:36,360
Speaker 2: And we joked about this the other day.

789
00:40:36,840 --> 00:40:39,320
Speaker 1: Still the name of the game here, Rob, it's still basketball,

790
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:42,119
doesn't matter what all the like, you know, stat sheet

791
00:40:42,159 --> 00:40:44,639
says if you cannot put the ball through the hoop,

792
00:40:45,039 --> 00:40:47,840
that's a problem, and that's a problem for Southeast Louisiana

793
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:50,159
and so Garth, I think I'm with you on the

794
00:40:50,159 --> 00:40:56,639
Islanders in this game, Rob, before I jump back it.

795
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:58,039
Speaker 2: So I'll go to you.

796
00:40:58,119 --> 00:41:01,599
Speaker 1: Do you have a we'll probably talk about three more

797
00:41:01,639 --> 00:41:04,400
games over the next twenty minutes. Do you have a

798
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:06,840
game in mind for the parlay that wasn't one of

799
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:11,679
the three we talked about so far? No, Okay, that's

800
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:14,159
all right, so we will We'll keep working through this,

801
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:17,039
and let's let's do this. I want to talk about

802
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:20,760
the Rio Grand Valley McNeese State game.

803
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:22,679
Speaker 2: That's one that's interesting to me.

804
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:25,719
Speaker 1: I see some people in the chat talking about that one,

805
00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:28,039
and then we'll kind of see where the discussion takes

806
00:41:28,119 --> 00:41:29,000
us the rest of the way.

807
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 2: I'm with you, Robbie.

808
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:33,360
Speaker 1: I think I'm probably going to end up using one

809
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:35,360
of the games we've already talked about for the parlay.

810
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:37,159
Speaker 2: But the reason this one is.

811
00:41:37,079 --> 00:41:40,119
Speaker 1: Interesting to me is I came into the season with

812
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:43,840
sort of like a game plan of how I wanted

813
00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:49,400
to bet against McNeese State in Southland Play. And what

814
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:52,480
that game plan essentially was was I want to take

815
00:41:52,679 --> 00:41:55,280
the teams I basically rated the you know, put my

816
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:58,280
ranking of the league with teams that I think were

817
00:41:58,599 --> 00:42:01,559
i'll call them worthwhile teams for lack of a better term,

818
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:05,800
meaning teams that I thought could end up somewhere near

819
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:08,639
the top half of the league. And my goal was

820
00:42:08,679 --> 00:42:12,519
to fade McNeice against these teams on the road. And

821
00:42:12,559 --> 00:42:16,280
it actually came out and was it was awesome. We

822
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:20,960
cashed the very opening night of south Land Play. Gave

823
00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:23,960
it out on this show, Increnet word ends up beating

824
00:42:24,039 --> 00:42:27,599
McNeese State outright. The next spot came up, we actually

825
00:42:27,679 --> 00:42:30,639
cashed with that one as well, Houston Houston Christian. They

826
00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:35,039
covered a double digit spread where McNeice won by ten

827
00:42:35,079 --> 00:42:39,199
but was never really up by that much. And then

828
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:42,159
the next the next spot that came up was ut

829
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:45,519
Rio Grand Valley and McNee State lost that game down in.

830
00:42:45,599 --> 00:42:46,519
Speaker 2: Edinburgh, Texas.

831
00:42:47,679 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 1: So the reason I bring all of that up is

832
00:42:50,559 --> 00:42:54,119
McNeice has actually not been as good at home against

833
00:42:54,119 --> 00:42:57,559
these sort of better teams either. And you know the

834
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:00,880
Steven F. Austin's another one. We talked about it on

835
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:03,800
this show where we started to notice that the value

836
00:43:04,119 --> 00:43:06,360
started to go south a little bit. If you remember

837
00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:09,039
by you loved Steven F. Austin in that game, And

838
00:43:09,119 --> 00:43:11,639
I said, man, but like all of a sudden, like McNeice,

839
00:43:11,639 --> 00:43:13,840
we're kind of being asked to like win this game now,

840
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:17,159
not just like cover a number. And sure enough, Steven F.

841
00:43:17,199 --> 00:43:20,679
Austin won that game sixty seven sixty. So I bring

842
00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:23,119
all of that up to say McNeice has now won

843
00:43:23,159 --> 00:43:28,039
five straight since that game, and they've done it in

844
00:43:28,079 --> 00:43:31,639
some cases by margin. They covered a big number at

845
00:43:31,679 --> 00:43:35,320
home against Incrnet word. They didn't cover against Houston Christian.

846
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:40,239
They smashed East Texas A and M, which is atrocious team. Again,

847
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:42,400
that's not surprising. Those are not the types of teams

848
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:46,199
I want to play against. McNeese State. Over the weekend

849
00:43:46,199 --> 00:43:50,119
they covered against Corpus Christy, and I wonder if this

850
00:43:50,159 --> 00:43:52,079
is the spot to jump in and fade them even

851
00:43:52,159 --> 00:43:56,320
though they're at home. So I am tempted to take

852
00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:58,719
the points here, and actually I'm going to I'm gonna

853
00:43:58,760 --> 00:44:00,639
do it, you know what, I'm gonna do it. This

854
00:44:00,679 --> 00:44:02,679
is gonna be my parlay. Leg I'm gonna take Rio

855
00:44:02,760 --> 00:44:07,159
Grand Valley plus the ten and a half. I they

856
00:44:07,199 --> 00:44:10,599
won the first meeting and it's on the heels of

857
00:44:10,639 --> 00:44:12,679
them sort of sort of, you know, putting in a

858
00:44:12,679 --> 00:44:16,559
big second half to beat Texas A and M Corpus Christy.

859
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:19,159
I think this game ends up being pretty competitive. So

860
00:44:19,519 --> 00:44:22,960
that's gonna be my parlay. Wait UTRGV plus the ten

861
00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:25,519
and a half points? Thoughts, and do you have anything

862
00:44:25,559 --> 00:44:28,199
for totals since, as you said, you've been on mckneye

863
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:30,440
State from a total standpoint for a couple of years now.

864
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:34,440
Speaker 3: A couple of things to talk about here that probably

865
00:44:34,559 --> 00:44:37,119
support the case for Rio grand A. They won the

866
00:44:37,119 --> 00:44:40,280
first time around, but you counted that by saying this

867
00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:46,239
is a pretty good McNee revenge spot. So in that game,

868
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:51,559
adam really quickly. They had a forty one to eighteen lead.

869
00:44:52,679 --> 00:44:55,960
Rio Grand Valley did up by twenty three against this team.

870
00:44:55,960 --> 00:44:59,119
I'd like to know the less time has to be

871
00:44:59,159 --> 00:45:02,039
prior to will wait when McNeice was ever down by

872
00:45:02,119 --> 00:45:06,599
twenty three to anybody. But McNeice is also dealing with

873
00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:10,880
I'm trying to get confirmation as we seek a pretty

874
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:15,800
significant injury here to Javan Garcia, who didn't play on Saturday,

875
00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:18,840
third leading scorer on the team, second best three point

876
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:22,159
shooter on the team, obviously a big factor did play

877
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:26,480
in this game the first time around against Corpus Christi.

878
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:32,119
In that one he had, he didn't play as big

879
00:45:32,159 --> 00:45:34,920
of a role in that one. Six points in that

880
00:45:35,000 --> 00:45:39,000
particular contest still makes mcneis a little bit depth shy

881
00:45:39,039 --> 00:45:42,480
if he can't play. And you know, calling McNeice depth

882
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:45,239
shy is probably a bad term because they run so

883
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:47,880
many guys out there. It's been like a constant from

884
00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:50,719
Will Wade till now where they play multiple players. But

885
00:45:50,760 --> 00:45:53,440
it takes away one starting piece here for them. We'll

886
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:55,800
see if it has a bearing on the game. But

887
00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:59,360
Real Grand Valley's the best shooting team in the league.

888
00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:03,079
Number one shooting twos, number one shooting threes. I mean,

889
00:46:03,119 --> 00:46:06,039
they bring a definite force to this game that has

890
00:46:06,079 --> 00:46:08,159
to be reckoned with, especially in this price range. And

891
00:46:08,199 --> 00:46:13,280
whether or not McNee State has revenge or not, winning

892
00:46:13,320 --> 00:46:18,239
by ten is a pretty big hurdle to clear against

893
00:46:18,239 --> 00:46:20,800
the team that's playing as good as anybody right now.

894
00:46:21,039 --> 00:46:23,199
I think when I just looked, Real Grand had lost

895
00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:27,039
one game in like their last thirteen or fourteen games,

896
00:46:27,079 --> 00:46:29,239
just one time, so you got a couple of really

897
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:33,599
hot teams here at this point in time. I think

898
00:46:33,599 --> 00:46:35,920
that Real Grand plus points even though they're on the

899
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:38,119
opponent's home floor, even though the opponent is the best

900
00:46:38,119 --> 00:46:40,800
team in the league, and they have revenge. But the

901
00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:44,480
injury situation may be a little bit here, And I

902
00:46:44,519 --> 00:46:46,920
think your overall point that you made way back in

903
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:51,840
November and just reiterated here is kind of valid. With that,

904
00:46:52,159 --> 00:46:55,639
maybe McNeice against teams that can push back against them

905
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:58,880
is just a little bit overpriced. This entire league can't

906
00:46:58,880 --> 00:47:01,719
push back against MCNI least they get steamroll. But teams

907
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:06,719
like Rio Grand who have capabilities, especially on the offensive end,

908
00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:10,280
for this team, maybe catching a couple too many here,

909
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:14,280
So I would lean that way as well, and we'll

910
00:47:14,280 --> 00:47:16,199
take that home as part of the parlay here. Let's

911
00:47:16,239 --> 00:47:16,679
go get it.

912
00:47:19,079 --> 00:47:21,559
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was just starting to uh, I was starting

913
00:47:21,599 --> 00:47:25,400
to look through the standings here and and do this off.

914
00:47:25,440 --> 00:47:29,239
So right now, your top four in the Southland is

915
00:47:30,159 --> 00:47:33,840
Stephen F. Austin McNeice is in second. Then you've got

916
00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:38,360
Rio Grand and New Orleans and of those four teams

917
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:40,719
that have sort of emerged as the as the top

918
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:44,159
four at least coming into play today, McNeice has covered

919
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:47,079
one of those games, and they covered by half a

920
00:47:47,079 --> 00:47:50,159
point against New Orleans, and I think, I think, depending

921
00:47:50,199 --> 00:47:51,880
on you may have there may have even been a

922
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:55,639
scenario where you could have, you know, if you've got

923
00:47:55,679 --> 00:47:57,639
a good number with New Orleans that you may have

924
00:47:57,679 --> 00:48:01,159
covered because they're covered by a half point. So again,

925
00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:06,199
didn't lose out right to UTRG the first time. They

926
00:48:06,239 --> 00:48:08,480
don't cover either of the games against steven M Boston.

927
00:48:09,599 --> 00:48:12,079
They're thirteen and oh at home this season. But that's

928
00:48:12,079 --> 00:48:17,000
so deceiving, Rob because it's like they're they're you know,

929
00:48:17,039 --> 00:48:18,920
they've won a lot of these games, but haven't done

930
00:48:18,960 --> 00:48:20,840
it by margin. And the ones they do win by

931
00:48:20,880 --> 00:48:23,559
margin is like the bottom half of this league, which

932
00:48:23,599 --> 00:48:26,719
is really bad. So like when you get down to

933
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:29,559
the very bottom of this league, the East Texas A

934
00:48:29,599 --> 00:48:33,599
and MS the Southeast Louisiana is like, you know, those

935
00:48:33,639 --> 00:48:37,480
are just just bad basketball teams. And again, I think

936
00:48:37,519 --> 00:48:40,280
you're talking about like ten and a half is probably

937
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:42,880
the right number, ten ten and a half, But this

938
00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:45,639
is one where I'm kind of like just willing to

939
00:48:45,679 --> 00:48:47,599
trust what I saw on the first meeting.

940
00:48:48,119 --> 00:48:49,760
Speaker 2: Bio says it could be a sneaky over.

941
00:48:50,079 --> 00:48:54,480
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with that, So again, I'm just I'm

942
00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:57,119
gonna roll with the plus ten. There's not as much

943
00:48:57,199 --> 00:49:00,599
on this slate today, and you know, as far as

944
00:49:00,599 --> 00:49:03,440
the games we've talked about so far, it's probably my

945
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:05,559
you know, I want to I want to let the

946
00:49:05,599 --> 00:49:07,679
board move around for the big games a little bit

947
00:49:07,679 --> 00:49:09,719
more so that those might actually end up being a

948
00:49:09,719 --> 00:49:11,800
client play for me. But for the show, we'll go

949
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:14,760
with plus ten. Of course, we start talking about it

950
00:49:15,039 --> 00:49:16,840
and it goes from ten and a half to ten

951
00:49:17,119 --> 00:49:18,760
and there's some spots that are even at nine and

952
00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:21,320
a half. So who knows if it's that's user, if

953
00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:23,320
that's some other folks seeing like a big number.

954
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:27,480
Speaker 2: But yeah, Rio Grand plus ten parlay leg for me.

955
00:49:29,039 --> 00:49:32,559
Speaker 3: And that push Adam could be somebody knowing something about Garcia.

956
00:49:32,639 --> 00:49:34,199
Speaker 2: I knew, Yeah, great point.

957
00:49:34,199 --> 00:49:37,960
Speaker 3: When I said it, it was wrong because I had

958
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:40,679
in my notes here Garcia was a factor in the

959
00:49:40,679 --> 00:49:43,559
first game, and when I was talking, I had the

960
00:49:43,599 --> 00:49:46,360
wrong box score pulled up saying he only scored six

961
00:49:46,400 --> 00:49:48,599
against Rio Cran the first time, and it's not the case.

962
00:49:48,599 --> 00:49:52,599
He had nineteen. So, like I said, I knew my

963
00:49:52,639 --> 00:49:54,559
notes had him as a significant piece here, and if

964
00:49:54,599 --> 00:49:58,519
he doesn't go, I mean losing, losing your second best

965
00:49:58,519 --> 00:50:02,079
three point shooter, et cetera, et cetera, out of that

966
00:50:02,159 --> 00:50:05,559
starting unit. Yes, McNeice is deep, but I don't know.

967
00:50:05,599 --> 00:50:08,920
It seems like real Grand Valley would have enough offense

968
00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:11,159
to push back here against them and cover that type

969
00:50:11,159 --> 00:50:11,559
of number.

970
00:50:13,000 --> 00:50:15,159
Speaker 2: All right, Rob, let's let's do this. Let's talk.

971
00:50:17,039 --> 00:50:20,000
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the other two top Southland teams in

972
00:50:20,119 --> 00:50:23,840
action today. I saw someone in the chat note that

973
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:27,440
Stephen F. Austin is fifteen to zero at home this year,

974
00:50:27,840 --> 00:50:32,800
steven F. Austin is pretty much a guarante, it's borderline

975
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:36,079
guaranteed to win the league. At this point, they are

976
00:50:36,159 --> 00:50:39,679
a twelve and a half point home favorite against New

977
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:42,639
Orleans season fourth right now, So what that should tell you,

978
00:50:42,719 --> 00:50:45,320
I mean, there would have to be like mountains would

979
00:50:45,360 --> 00:50:47,679
have to move for them to not win this league,

980
00:50:47,719 --> 00:50:50,000
because even next week when they're on the road, it's

981
00:50:50,039 --> 00:50:53,199
Houston Christian and Increnet word. I've got to believe that

982
00:50:53,599 --> 00:50:55,599
it would be shocking to me if steven F. Austin

983
00:50:55,679 --> 00:50:58,320
loses one more and if they lose one more, they

984
00:50:58,400 --> 00:51:01,440
still want they've still won the league by themselves, because

985
00:51:01,440 --> 00:51:04,480
of course they're eighteen and one in league play and

986
00:51:04,599 --> 00:51:09,239
McNeice is sixteen and three. With that being said, New

987
00:51:09,360 --> 00:51:11,760
Orleans this was a team that right off the right,

988
00:51:12,400 --> 00:51:15,440
they skewed their rating a Night one of the college

989
00:51:15,480 --> 00:51:17,760
basketball season by beating TCU.

990
00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:21,880
Speaker 2: So to me, like I'm.

991
00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:23,880
Speaker 1: Actually a little bit surprised that they've been able to

992
00:51:23,960 --> 00:51:27,440
keep this up in conference play. Like I thought this

993
00:51:27,599 --> 00:51:31,559
was was a team that was probably gonna regress based

994
00:51:31,719 --> 00:51:34,039
on what they did in the non conference, which is

995
00:51:34,079 --> 00:51:37,440
of course, not only did they beat TCU, they beat Tulane.

996
00:51:37,599 --> 00:51:42,599
That's another really good win. They took Mississippi State into overtime.

997
00:51:43,159 --> 00:51:46,440
I believe Mississippi State needed like a three to either

998
00:51:46,480 --> 00:51:50,639
tie or win that game. So I'm actually kind of,

999
00:51:50,840 --> 00:51:53,199
I guess, pleasantly surprised with New Orleans that they've been

1000
00:51:53,239 --> 00:51:55,679
able to, you know, sort of factor into this league.

1001
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:57,440
I thought they'd fall back to the middle of the pack.

1002
00:51:57,559 --> 00:52:00,679
So they now go to the top team in this league.

1003
00:52:00,760 --> 00:52:03,679
There's been an absolute monster at home. Is there any

1004
00:52:03,679 --> 00:52:05,440
way you could take those points or do you think

1005
00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:05,920
steven F.

1006
00:52:05,960 --> 00:52:07,039
Speaker 2: Boston is just too good?

1007
00:52:08,159 --> 00:52:09,599
Speaker 3: Well, if you want to take them, and you go

1008
00:52:09,639 --> 00:52:13,000
through steven F. Boston Southland Conference game logs, you find

1009
00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:15,400
out that they've only won by this amount four times

1010
00:52:15,400 --> 00:52:18,000
in sixteen games. They've won a bunch of games, but

1011
00:52:18,000 --> 00:52:21,440
then won a bunch of games by thirteen and New Orleans.

1012
00:52:21,480 --> 00:52:24,519
Actually that game took a severe reversal. New Orleans had

1013
00:52:24,559 --> 00:52:27,880
a ten point lead that turned into a fourteen point

1014
00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:30,960
deficit in the second half. So twenty four point swingers

1015
00:52:31,559 --> 00:52:34,000
in no way, shape or form do I want to

1016
00:52:34,039 --> 00:52:36,920
be against steven F. Boston at this point? In time,

1017
00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:40,320
and to your point, Adam, let's just use the try

1018
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:42,840
and get inside, because we've done enough of this over

1019
00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:45,679
the years. I think you mentioned that earlier, to try

1020
00:52:45,679 --> 00:52:47,760
and at least be inside the mindset of a team.

1021
00:52:47,880 --> 00:52:53,159
For Stephen at Boston Lee, clinching is probably going to

1022
00:52:53,199 --> 00:52:57,360
come at some point, and when you're in this type

1023
00:52:57,400 --> 00:53:00,559
of league, Southland League, clinching isn't everything. Then you have

1024
00:53:00,639 --> 00:53:02,880
to go win the south Land Tournament otherwise you don't

1025
00:53:02,920 --> 00:53:05,760
go to the NCAA's end of story. Right, as good

1026
00:53:05,800 --> 00:53:08,800
as their season has been, if they don't win the

1027
00:53:08,880 --> 00:53:12,800
conference tournament, or even if they get tripped up here

1028
00:53:12,880 --> 00:53:15,239
at the end of the season here and wind up

1029
00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:18,079
with four losses, it would be tough if they didn't

1030
00:53:18,079 --> 00:53:22,000
win the conference tournament. That being said, you'd expect full

1031
00:53:22,039 --> 00:53:25,400
attention on this game and then maybe a little more

1032
00:53:25,400 --> 00:53:27,920
of a lackadaisical effort against the has beens that they're

1033
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:30,079
gonna play next week, maybe their final game. They take

1034
00:53:30,079 --> 00:53:31,320
it a little bit easier. They got to look here

1035
00:53:31,360 --> 00:53:33,079
and see if it's at home, because that won't be

1036
00:53:33,119 --> 00:53:36,199
the case now I see they wrap up on the road.

1037
00:53:36,280 --> 00:53:38,320
Houston Christian might be a game where you could get

1038
00:53:38,360 --> 00:53:41,920
to the dog thinking that, you know, Steven F. Austin

1039
00:53:41,920 --> 00:53:44,039
isn't going to apply themselves. But I don't know that

1040
00:53:44,159 --> 00:53:47,639
this is one of those type games. All that said,

1041
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:50,519
New Orleans has made a focal point with the money

1042
00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:54,639
provided by master p to try and become a better program,

1043
00:53:55,519 --> 00:53:57,519
and as you said, they've stepped up a little bit.

1044
00:53:58,639 --> 00:54:00,960
I don't know. I don't want to lay twelve and

1045
00:54:01,000 --> 00:54:03,599
a half in this game. I think if it were me,

1046
00:54:03,960 --> 00:54:06,920
I'd be a little bit more comfortable here playing the

1047
00:54:06,960 --> 00:54:10,360
Steven F. Boston team total at home, which is eighty

1048
00:54:10,440 --> 00:54:14,320
one and a half, I'd feel a little more positive

1049
00:54:14,360 --> 00:54:18,679
about them getting to eighty two against this New Orleans defense,

1050
00:54:18,719 --> 00:54:23,320
which hasn't been great so far this season. Inside the league,

1051
00:54:23,559 --> 00:54:25,199
they rank near the bottom or at least in the

1052
00:54:25,239 --> 00:54:31,159
bottom half. So without without Stephen F. Boston proving that

1053
00:54:31,199 --> 00:54:34,039
they can win by this margin enough, only winning by

1054
00:54:34,079 --> 00:54:36,679
this margin, you know, four out of sixteen is twenty

1055
00:54:36,679 --> 00:54:39,239
five percent of the time. It's hard to back that

1056
00:54:39,559 --> 00:54:41,239
in lay twelve and a half. In fact, we'll go

1057
00:54:41,280 --> 00:54:43,760
back to talking about make these being overvalued at this

1058
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:46,519
point in time. Is Stephen F. Austin a little bit

1059
00:54:46,599 --> 00:54:49,519
overvalued as far as home favorite role is concerned, so

1060
00:54:50,159 --> 00:54:52,840
I'd probably let that pass. I would think New Orleans

1061
00:54:52,880 --> 00:54:54,880
could might be able to sneak in under the number

1062
00:54:55,079 --> 00:54:57,760
and maybe a look at the Steven F. Boston team

1063
00:54:57,840 --> 00:55:00,639
total in what better is at least think there's going

1064
00:55:00,719 --> 00:55:03,280
to be a pretty high scoring game because the total

1065
00:55:03,360 --> 00:55:06,920
was set high to begin with, but it's been pushed

1066
00:55:07,599 --> 00:55:10,000
even higher now I'm looking at some one to fifteen

1067
00:55:10,000 --> 00:55:12,480
and a half off of a one forty nine opener,

1068
00:55:12,599 --> 00:55:15,119
So a little movement towards the full game over here.

1069
00:55:16,119 --> 00:55:18,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're I think you're paying a pretty big premium

1070
00:55:18,840 --> 00:55:19,599
to back Stephen F.

1071
00:55:19,639 --> 00:55:21,760
Speaker 2: Austin here. This was a five point game in the

1072
00:55:21,800 --> 00:55:23,679
first meeting. Yeah they are.

1073
00:55:24,400 --> 00:55:28,880
Speaker 1: I mean my numbers is closer to nine, so twelve

1074
00:55:28,920 --> 00:55:30,840
and a half. It's like, I think you're paying a

1075
00:55:30,840 --> 00:55:34,880
pretty big tax for seen you know, quote unquote see it.

1076
00:55:34,920 --> 00:55:37,119
Do they even call it senior night anymore? Like half

1077
00:55:37,159 --> 00:55:39,320
these guys don't stay at the same school for four years.

1078
00:55:39,320 --> 00:55:41,639
But let's call it the last home game of the

1079
00:55:41,719 --> 00:55:44,960
year undefeated home record, which is what Steven F.

1080
00:55:44,960 --> 00:55:46,239
Speaker 2: Austin will be going for tonite.

1081
00:55:46,239 --> 00:55:48,960
Speaker 1: They're fifteen to zero at home, they'll probably get win

1082
00:55:49,079 --> 00:55:53,159
number sixteen. But I guess I'm you know, here's what

1083
00:55:53,199 --> 00:55:55,800
I think is maybe overblown a little bit and over

1084
00:55:55,880 --> 00:55:58,760
baked into the number. This is their fourth straight road game.

1085
00:55:58,800 --> 00:56:01,039
But if you know how this league, like, they always

1086
00:56:01,159 --> 00:56:03,119
they're always gonna play in pairs, right, It's gonna be

1087
00:56:03,159 --> 00:56:07,079
a Saturday Monday league most of the time. So yeah,

1088
00:56:06,800 --> 00:56:10,320
they are on their fourth straight road game for New Orleans.

1089
00:56:10,360 --> 00:56:13,840
But it's like, Okay, that's just back to back road trips.

1090
00:56:13,840 --> 00:56:15,760
It's gonna happen to everyone at least once for the

1091
00:56:15,800 --> 00:56:20,519
most part in conference play. I don't know that that's

1092
00:56:20,679 --> 00:56:24,239
like a crazy horrible spot for them, you know, quick

1093
00:56:24,280 --> 00:56:28,039
trip over to the Texas schools and then now you're

1094
00:56:28,079 --> 00:56:32,239
taking I'm sorry, two trips to Texas for New Orleans,

1095
00:56:32,239 --> 00:56:35,400
which is not horrible travel. So I think that it's

1096
00:56:35,559 --> 00:56:37,559
I think this is a big number. I would look

1097
00:56:37,599 --> 00:56:41,719
to take the dog here as well. All right, Robino,

1098
00:56:41,920 --> 00:56:45,360
they would like to know what your parlay leg is,

1099
00:56:45,480 --> 00:56:49,079
they said. The the Rio Grand Valley spread is moving

1100
00:56:49,079 --> 00:56:51,320
a little bit. Listen, I'll attach juice to it so

1101
00:56:51,360 --> 00:56:52,719
we can still get our ten or ten and a

1102
00:56:52,760 --> 00:56:55,239
half in the parlay. So what do you got, Rob,

1103
00:56:55,320 --> 00:56:57,559
What are you gonna lock in for the two team

1104
00:56:57,599 --> 00:56:58,000
or today?

1105
00:56:58,960 --> 00:57:00,800
Speaker 3: I'll go back to one of the games, Adam, And

1106
00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:03,480
again I didn't play either of these as of yet,

1107
00:57:04,800 --> 00:57:08,199
but I'm gonna go to instinct here on this one.

1108
00:57:08,280 --> 00:57:12,719
We talked for at length, dissected these games, almost every

1109
00:57:12,760 --> 00:57:15,800
detail of these games, and the odds makers at this

1110
00:57:15,880 --> 00:57:19,159
time of year do a really good job of setting

1111
00:57:19,280 --> 00:57:22,320
numbers straight. But I'm gonna play the Louisville team total

1112
00:57:22,480 --> 00:57:26,840
over Adam. It's just for me. By the way, the

1113
00:57:26,920 --> 00:57:30,840
number is eighty one and a half over minus one twenty.

1114
00:57:30,960 --> 00:57:34,119
So again, for those of you guys out there who

1115
00:57:34,280 --> 00:57:37,639
only have a single outlet, Adam says this all the time.

1116
00:57:38,840 --> 00:57:41,519
If your single outlet is gonna show you eighty two

1117
00:57:41,559 --> 00:57:44,599
and a half, just all play it back and lay

1118
00:57:44,599 --> 00:57:47,280
the twenty cents the consensus number.

1119
00:57:47,039 --> 00:57:48,039
Speaker 2: One, I'll price it in.

1120
00:57:48,079 --> 00:57:50,599
Speaker 1: I'm gonna put minus one twenty on both parlay legs,

1121
00:57:50,639 --> 00:57:51,880
so you have the room to do that.

1122
00:57:52,159 --> 00:57:56,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, there you go. Because again, across the thirty books

1123
00:57:56,800 --> 00:57:59,599
that we're allowed to see here on the Odds logic screen,

1124
00:57:59,639 --> 00:58:03,159
the concents, this number pops up as eighty one and

1125
00:58:03,159 --> 00:58:06,159
a half over minus one twenty. Give you a couple

1126
00:58:06,159 --> 00:58:08,679
of reasons why. The biggest reason, I think is the

1127
00:58:08,719 --> 00:58:12,159
Louisville three point shooting. I just don't see North Carolina.

1128
00:58:12,239 --> 00:58:14,599
They haven't been able to defend the three all season long,

1129
00:58:15,159 --> 00:58:18,480
and it's kind of not close. Adam like, the percentage

1130
00:58:18,519 --> 00:58:21,239
of threes that they're giving up inside the league play

1131
00:58:21,360 --> 00:58:25,159
is thirty nine point four and the next worst team

1132
00:58:25,400 --> 00:58:28,840
is Miami at only thirty eight percent. When there's a

1133
00:58:28,880 --> 00:58:32,199
one and a half percent gaps, that's a huge gap.

1134
00:58:32,239 --> 00:58:33,960
It may not look like a lot, but that's a

1135
00:58:34,079 --> 00:58:37,159
huge gap disparity. So it shows you how bad North

1136
00:58:37,199 --> 00:58:40,960
Carolina has been. And as I said earlier, between Hadley,

1137
00:58:41,559 --> 00:58:46,000
Conwell Brown, all these guys that just shoot threes, and

1138
00:58:46,079 --> 00:58:49,119
then at the same time you get a lot of

1139
00:58:50,880 --> 00:58:53,800
mid range or to the rim stuff with these guys.

1140
00:58:53,800 --> 00:58:56,000
So I know North Carolina protects the rim. It's what

1141
00:58:56,079 --> 00:58:59,199
their best at. They're not necessarily a shot blocking team,

1142
00:58:59,480 --> 00:59:02,320
more of a short a shot altering team than blocking team.

1143
00:59:03,000 --> 00:59:05,039
But Louisville's gonna find their way to the line. In

1144
00:59:05,119 --> 00:59:08,239
my opinion, I think they're gonna sink some threes here

1145
00:59:08,280 --> 00:59:10,559
and the pace is what sold me on this one.

1146
00:59:10,800 --> 00:59:13,719
Most of all is that North Carolina is going to

1147
00:59:13,760 --> 00:59:16,440
be rapid fire. It just amazes me how far we've

1148
00:59:16,440 --> 00:59:20,639
come this year with this particular team, thinking that they

1149
00:59:20,679 --> 00:59:23,119
might be more defensive oriented. They're not. So give me

1150
00:59:23,239 --> 00:59:25,920
Louisville team total up and over eighty one and a half.

1151
00:59:27,480 --> 00:59:29,199
Speaker 1: All right, went a little longer on a couple of

1152
00:59:29,239 --> 00:59:32,039
these today because there's only so many games. We will

1153
00:59:32,039 --> 00:59:36,079
be back tomorrow more of your traditional full court press show,

1154
00:59:36,719 --> 00:59:39,239
but appreciate you guys hanging with us today. Two teamer

1155
00:59:39,280 --> 00:59:42,679
for today will go Rio Grand Valley plus ten and

1156
00:59:42,719 --> 00:59:46,039
we'll go Louisville Team total over eighty one and a half.

1157
00:59:46,360 --> 00:59:48,480
Enjoy your Monday, everyone, Rob and I'll be back ten

1158
00:59:48,519 --> 00:59:52,360
am tomorrow morning for more full court press