Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everybody, and it's time for full
court press. I hope everyone had a great weekend and Rob,
I had a pretty good weekend.
Speaker 2: I ended up getting a nice win. Would see EDDI yesterday?
Speaker 1: Of course it's always a you know, when they win
and I bet them, that's a double great day for me.
Speaker 2: But it goes the other way.
Speaker 1: If I would have bet them and they would lose,
it would be double bad day. But yesterday we get
in there. I only played for Sunday a win with
the Sienna Saints. They win and cover easily, two and
one on Saturday for me, and then a pretty good
week overall. So Rob, you know, how is your weekend
and what else do you got going on?
Speaker 3: I was like you yesterday, just one play. I didn't
like much on the board, Adam, I thought the lines
were pretty good. And then in retrospect, you know, we
always have our list that we shaved down. In retrospect,
if I had left a couple extras, on would have
had some. But that's okay, We'll take the one. And
oh it was the Wisconsin Badgers at home against Iowa
late two and a half win by thirteen, So good
news there Saturday's play or Saturday's card came up as
a minus and two big ones that really dictated my day, Adam,
where the cal State Northridge team total over which we
used on last call with Kelly destined to get to
ninety five the whole way and just on the breaks
for the last eight minutes. Kind of strange out of
Northridge to do that, but they land seventy eight, a
little bit short and hooked to start the day with
Valparizo and Illinois Chicago, I believe it was over one
thirty eight and a half, got to one thirty eight.
A couple of miss free throws and you have the
difference in your day. But now overall pretty good. Friday
was nice. So again, season's been great. Top five spot
in Monk's Wager Talk candicappers for the entire season, number
two since December, first two months of plus forty three units.
I think, so we're not gonna complain at this time
of year, but eventually, I think I remember, back way
back when we started, used to say, you know, these
things are gonna start to go your way, and eventually
you remember them when they hurt. But they do go
the other way, and you tend to just count those
as when oh yeah, that was just an easy winner
by half of them. Yeah, it kind of strange the
mind of a sports better. But we'll get to it today.
On what say, I mean, how short could they make
this card for us?
Speaker 1: Adam, dear Lord, Yeah they got Well, let's let's get
right into it and oho, yeah we will. Total bases
will be back, and actually I believe we're gonna go
to six days a week on total basis as well,
Monday through Saturday, so we'll be back pitchers and cat well,
actually we started playing spring training games this weekend, Rob,
baseball is that close where there was was spring training
being played? I think as early as Friday or Saturday
they started to I usually start to For me, I
usually start to watch spring training, like really watch the
games like mid March when when guys have gotten a
couple of reps in. Now some of the pitchers are
getting stretched out. So I won't watch a ton of
spring training ball before then, too locked in on college
basketball to do that. And so let's lock in on
this slate, Rob. Yeah, you mentioned they gave us two
huge games with like top twenty five teams, so we've
got two big time matchups and then like the lowest
of the low extra board type type, you know, couple Southland,
maybe a swack.
Speaker 2: So really no in between.
Speaker 1: It is two blockbuster games for Monday on Big Monday,
and then I think six extra board games. Let's start
with I mean they're both pretty big games. Let's start
with the sort of feature of the day out at
Allen Field House, Rob amazingly and this got this got
some run when Kansas knocked off Arizona without Darren Peterson,
Bill self, I don't believe he's ever lost on Big
Monday at Allen Fieldhouse. I think it's something like forty
to zero. A crazy run on Monday night home games
for Bill self at Kansas. Now that's obviously in jeopardy
tonight because we know Houston's a very very good basketball team,
very capable of winning in there, and Houston, if they
don't win in there, is about they would lose their
third straight game. So like the spot, people have to
just be in shambles here, Rob, because I have a.
Speaker 2: Feeling they want to bet both of these teams.
Speaker 1: Kansas coming off a loss, an ugly loss that was
one of the more surprising results of the weekend. Kansas
is just getting blown out at home by Cincinnati, and
then I think we you know, Houston came up on
our show on Saturday with Kelly that was more.
Speaker 2: That was almost just as surprising.
Speaker 1: I know they I know Arizona is a really good team,
and you should never be surprised if the Arizona Wildcats
win a game. But I felt like Houston was just
in an in sort of like the perfect setup to
win that game over the weekend, and they dropped their
second straight game. So two teams coming in bolt in
the spot, Rob, What do you make of that, Houston
and Kansas Allen Field House.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess we take the spot, We crumple it up,
and we throw it in the garbage can and move
on to what's next on the list of handicapping angles
at him Because you're right, who wouldn't want Houston off
of two consecutive losses. Of course you would. But then again,
like you say, you have to deal with Kansas at
Allenfield House on Monday night off of lost themselves, a
loss in which FLORYD. Badunga said, I guess that we
didn't respect them in terms of Cincinnati, their opponent the other
day Bill quick or excuse me, Bill's self very quick
to hop in and say that he doesn't agree with
that assessment. But that's a player telling you that we
overlook Cincinnati not good. But it probably means that they'll
be fired up here. You know, they out of the tunnel,
dub Kelvin Sampson more of the level headed approach here.
Don't get too high off or don't get too low
off of losses. Don't get too high off of wins,
was one of his quotes. It's part of a journey,
and you got to accept losses at times. That being said, Houston,
they were always pushing uphill in that game. I mean
there was never a moment where Houston had any sort
of control of that game against Arizona. Fall way behind,
try to fight back, fall back behind, try to fight back,
fall behind, try to fight back. They just in the end,
they just didn't have it. And statistically it wasn't a
horrible offensive game for the Houston Cougars. I mean, they
didn't shoot well from three, but they held Arizona to
twenty five percent from three, so there was no real
advantage there. The advantage unlike most Houston games, the advantage
that you can find is inside the arc. Where Arizona
made twenty two shots for forty four points from two
and Houston only made twelve for twenty four outscored by
twenty from two point range. Is very unlike Houston. And
then I guess the other thing to consider in that
game was the turnovers by the Houston Cougars. Eighteen and
a half percent of their possessions went by the wayside
of turnover for Arizona only five turnovers. And I'll just
for Arizona for one second. I think I said this
once before, but we don't say it enough that the
guard play of Jaden Bradley and Braden Burst, especially Bradley
with his ball Handley has been talk a lot about
point guards on this show, Adam. He's one of the
best point guards in the country that goes a little
bit under the radar. So brings us to this game
where I think Houston probably wins the glass edge here
against Kansas. I would believe they're the better rebounding team overall.
They're gonna have to make threes, though, Adam, it seems
to me that Houston has become more dependent on the
three this year than any year in recent memory, and
I think it's because they shoot them better. They've got
more capability from the outside, more weaponry, more options, so
to speak. But they're going to have to make shots
right away. Get the Kansas crowd out of it. It's
not an easy thing to do. Darren Peterson thirty two
minutes of I don't know, ho Hum basketball against Cincinnati.
One of seven from three not great. I'd expect to
bounce back out of him. So you know where I'm
kind of pushing towards here, and I'm kind of pushing
towards this game going over the total. Houston's defense, as
good as it is statistically when I've watched it six seven,
eight times now, Houston can still be beaten defensively, and
it comes. It occurs more often, i will say, than
what I've seen in the past, where teams get good
shots off against Houston. So Kansas is a team that
will play with a little bit of tempo at times
you want to try and run against Houston. This number
has been pushed from one to thirty five and a
half all the way to one thirty eight. I'm looking
now so we can be current. I'm looking at one
thirty eight and a half, So there's some agreement with
the over and wow, I'm just gonna say that we're
repetitive about this every single day, about how lines moved
during our sixty minutes on the show. But this game
was just awkwards again. Houston was watching it down to
one and a half. Yeah, you're seeing it. Yeah, they
get hit hard, the home underdog now only taking one
and a half rather than two and a half. That's
a tough call, Adam. I'll give you the floor obviously
to talk more about side. But for me, if I
had to, I could see something in the vicinity of
a seventy one sixty eight game, which is what you
need to get paid here if you're playing over probably
enough bowels to get you there too in this one.
So that that's where I'll lean. I haven't played yet,
but that's where I'll lean.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So that is you know, the current, Like you said,
we do this show in the window where a lot
of these games start to move, limits increased, so on
and so forth. And for me, like I'm tempted to
just come in and take Houston right now, Like that's
kind of how I that's kind of how I wanted
to play this regardless. I obviously, you know, wasn't dying
to lay two and a half. That's a tough number
to lay in a game like this. But as you said,
as we are looking at this on the show, Kansas
gets hit, my guess is My guess is Kansas is
getting hit. So someone then can come and bet Houston
the other way and not have to lay the two
and a half. I think that someone is gonna be
me as we talk about this, because again it comes
down to you know, I still think Houston is like
the better of these two teams. I think you made
a great point about Houston defensively being not quite the
team that got to a couple a possession or two
away from winning the NCAA Tournament last year.
Speaker 2: I don't think they're quite as good defense.
Speaker 1: But you know, Kansas, I think has some issues offensively
that got sort of brushed to the side because they
had these like great games back to back. So I'll
highlight the games that I think. I think the pair
of games against BYU and Arizona really like skyrocketedt Kansas's ranking.
Speaker 2: To the point where they're a little bit overvalued right now.
If you go back to the BYU game.
Speaker 1: Of course, like we have hindsight now to kind of say, man,
you know, maybe Byu, maybe this this wasn't it this
year for them. They weren't you know, Rob, you had
talked about this a lot. They weren't very deep. Once
teams kind of figured out they could like double devance
if they wanted to, it became apparent that it was
Richie Saunders. And so that I'm gonna include Richie Sunders
because he was still there in that game. He almost
brought Byu back in that game. And then Rob right,
and that's kind of it. So you know, that was
one of those big wins for Kansas, and then the
other one.
Speaker 2: The other one was, well they had.
Speaker 1: Two the Texas Tech game where Peterson kind of hit
those two big threes and stole it, and then of
course beating Arizona without Peterson. And because those results all
came so close to each other, I think we sort
of like, I think we sort of threw Kansas up
into this like elite territory when they're not actually quite
that elite of a team, right, Like they're outside the
top forty an offensive efficiency on kempound that would would
you have got that offhand Rob, if I was like,
it's Kansas, you know, Like, would you have guessed that
they're outside the top forty offensive efficiency right now with
with some of the wins they've had of late.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I probably would have taken a moment to think
about it and then said no, because I think about
games without Peterson into the lineup. So I probably would
have thought about it for a second. But you're probably right.
I would have thought, no, they're inside the top forty.
Would have been my idea.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you know, I think that maybe lets the
Houston defens off the hook, ever so slightly. Of course
we are judging Houston, you know, on you know, over
the weekend, even like Arizona's been a top pretty much
a top five offensive and defensive team all season, and
so now you turn around to play Kansas. Yes, you're
at Allen Field House. I understand the you know, sort
of the how difficult it is to go in there.
But who's to say Kansas can't go in there and win. Rob,
It was almost impossible to win at for Titta Center,
and Arizona turned around and did it in a what
wasn't the best spot for Arizona this weekend.
Speaker 2: I'm with Steve. And here's the thing.
Speaker 1: I bring up the spot like facetiously, I think people
overrate the spot big time, like just in general, Like
you can't just be betting spots in college basketball. It's
a good way to go broke real quick. He says,
screw the spot method here, both teams have it. Houston
is better. Expect a nail bier. I'm certainly in on
the Houston is better. Like if I'm just straight up
power raking these teams, I got Houston pretty significantly ahead
of Kansas at this point. Houston's a team that I've
got in the top ten in both offensive and defensive rating.
I don't have Kansas in the top ten in either.
So the question becomes, how how much are you going
to factor in Allen field House?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: And for me, even with giving the maximum home court
bump to my numbers, so I've got my number and
then I will subtract or add based on home court.
If I give Kansas the maximum bump for home court. Here,
I'm still at Houston minus three point two, right, So,
and that and that would be I think we can
both agree that Alan Fieldhouse deserves the max bump. If
you're not giving Allen Field House at a Monday night
the Max bump, who are you?
Speaker 2: Who are you giving maximum home court two?
Speaker 3: Right?
Speaker 1: But even with that, Max, I'm still at Houston being
like slightly over a three point favorite. So I'm sort
of sitting here like I can get a Hue Houston
money line minus one twenty five. I don't know, but Rob,
that's it's gonna be. It's gonna be hard to pass up.
I'm I'm it's it's all in the phone. I haven't
clicked it yet, but I have a feeling that's gonna
be my parleg and it may make my uh my
card as well.
Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 2: The good news is we've got time today.
Speaker 1: There's not as many games, there's not as many games
we're gonna have big time opinions on. So I'm gonna
think about that one for a second. But after that
Kansas money has come in, I'm leaning pretty heavily towards
just taking that Houston money line and the minus one
twenty five range.
Speaker 3: Yeah, if this thing comes down to shooting threes, Adam,
you gotta pick your group of three. Right. If you're Houston,
do you want Fleming Sharp and Uzan that three or
do you want Peterson Counsel and Trey White. It's so even,
and it's so hard. It's such a variable to predict
who's gonna shoot threes better. However, it's hard to kind
of quantify the differences between this team. And I did
get done, and I don't want it to be out
of context. I got done saying Houston doesn't look to
be the same type of defensive force that they've been
in the past, and I think that's true. But I
don't want anybody to think that I sell their toughness
short here. And I think that's the place where when
I think of this game, Adam, it's kind of if
I land on Houston, that's kind of the place where
I land on their side is toughness. Like I feel
like they're going to get the loose ball over Kansas.
I feel like they're going to get the second chance
over Kansas. You know what I mean, They're just Kansas
to me doesn't register as an elite level physically tough team,
mentally tough team. And I'll praise Melvin Counsel Junior. Again,
I just went on and on about Bradley for Arizona,
but Melvin Council Junior has been phenomenal for this team.
I'd expect him to show up big, but point, you know,
when we do numbers and all this other stuff, you
can't really quantify toughness, all the stuff that doesn't show
up in the box. But that's why I land as
Houston being the better team anything that's not inside the
box score. Houston's probably better at than Kansas, and the
venue is not gonna affect Houston any.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's really never been probably a better intangibles guy
than Calvin Samson since he showed up at Houston. I mean,
you want to talk about a team that just gets
it done in like the Gray areas, they do it
as pretty much as good as anyone. And also his
ability to game plan. I don't think he's gonna be
thrown off by Peterson in Peterson out. Actually, I think
if Peterson is in, it's almost even better. I think
he's gonna he'll have a great game plan for that.
So I will I have not met this yet, it
is certainly the way I'm leaning. I'm gonna kind of
probably think about it.
Speaker 2: Throughout the show.
Speaker 1: If I do play it while we're on the show,
I will certainly let you know, and that'll bring me
to another one that I'm kind of you know right
there on it's the other primetime game, and Rob, we've
got Louisville heading in North Carolina. I started to get actually,
we were well, we were on the show with Kelly
on Saturday. I was getting texts about this, and then
someone actually asked in the chat and so we I said,
like I think Kelly phrased it like Trigg, do you
do you agree with Syracuse getting all sorts of sharp money,
at which point I said no, I said, I don't
know why anyone want this corpse of a basketball team
again getting like to win the game, like I understand
maybe wanting to go against North Carolina. But then again,
it was right around the time, Rob where reports were
coming out that that Vsar might vesser, that Henry Vsar
might play.
Speaker 2: I'm probably destroying his name, apologies in advance.
Speaker 1: And sure enough n C went in to the Carrier
Dome with the JMA Wireless Dome, whatever you want to
call it, and gets an easy win seven seven to
sixty four.
Speaker 2: Uh Vsar plays.
Speaker 1: Twenty five minutes, nineteen points, so clearly you know he
was a factor. And again I just I just could
not understand the Syracuse love for that game. Now, I
didn't really want to go against it because I'm still
over here, like, okay, like UNC might be a little
bit vulnerable. We saw the game against NC State. They
didn't have much, right, Like, that was the game where
they're without two of their top players and they got
they get just rolled eighty two to fifty eight by
an NC State team that hasn't exactly just been pumping
people by margin recently. So, you know, the game before that,
pit UNC ends up being able to win that game
by double digits without you know, still without you know,
without Caleb Wilson, who will still be out, and then
VSAR is obviously back. So I'm over here liking Louisville. Okay,
I want to like Louis Louisville. Bec Uh, I do
think Wilson being out is going to matter against like
a better competition, And Pitt and Syracuse are in such
a bad place right now that I just don't know
that either of those teams truly could expose n SEE
being a little bit shorthanded. But the problem here is
Louis Louisville hasn't been the same team on the road
and they're gonna have to go into the Dean Dome tonight. God,
does this feel a little bit like the game we
just talked about just a little right, Like, So what
do we do with this one?
Speaker 2: NC Louisville. Do you have any interest in the road
team or do you think it's the heels?
Speaker 3: Yeah? And the problem with these two games, Adham, is
that we don't have a two game series, so we
don't have anything to look back on reflect on a
first meeting between these two you know what I mean.
This is the first meeting between louis the UNC. It's
the first meeting between Houston Kansas, So you have to
go into it a little bit half blind, without that
type of data to go back and look at. But
this is it's at the point in time were these
games mean everything. These two teams tied in the ACC
for sixth place, but only the top four get to
double buy. So both of these teams scrambling to get
to one of those top four spots inside the ACC.
And it's not without it's not beyond reach for either
of them. It's sit like a game out of third
both of these teams. So we know the way things
can change within one week of conference play. You play
twice when team goes to and oh you go in
two boom, you get a complete reversal of standings. They're
both in that spot where they're trying to get to
the number four or better position. Let's back, and first
of all, I've got your back, because as the Full
Court Press Show tries to be one of everybody's favorite
watches among college basketball shows during Monday through Friday, we
want to make sure we get our pronunciations right. So
I looked it up this morning because I was going crazy.
I know I was saying it wrong. It's Henry. It's
actually Enrie, but we'll call him Henry because we're in
the States. But Henryvesr ess hyphen R. So we'll get
it right the rest of the way. For those of
you tar Heel fans that are watching and are cursing
us for butchering, his name is re Vesar. He came
back the other day Saturday, and it is interesting. Like
you said, we talked about this game on Saturday with Kelly,
and to me, it's crazy how overreactive the market is.
Even with sharp money to injury. There had better report
that Caleb Wilson was working on trying to get back
for that game. He's working on how to play with
the cast or whatever on his other hand, on his
off hand, and he gets ruled out SR. I think
we all knew was probably gonna play. He did play,
but the line tenth goes to Syracuse for no real
reason other than injury. UNC blows them out. This is
interesting because you talked about Louisville's road WOS. This is
the beginning of a four game stretch where they're gonna
play three on the road, and these four games are important,
as I just spoke about in the standing. So for Louisville,
they're gonna have to learn to win on the road
at the most crucial point in the season. For UNC,
it's the opposite that been home much. They get three
of the next four at home. Hubert Davis commented on
this star returning to the lineup, and it's nothing. We're
not breaking news here. But on the offensive end, he
makes a difference for everybody else, obviously because you can
feed the post with him, and on the defensive end,
now they're back to having three huge people at the rim.
All of that talked about Adam, I think The biggest
difference in this game is UNC is the worst three
point field goal percentage defense in the ACC, the worst.
And what's Louisville going to do? Don't walk in there
and bomb threes? Hit fourteen the other day, shot thirty one.
But Pat Kelsey's team will come in with mckel Brown.
Speaker 1: With.
Speaker 3: J David or Javion missing his last name now, and
also with a host of three point shooters that you
know it's I don't know the UNC can stop them,
to tell you the truth, and Louisville, for what it's worth,
is gonna throw up enough of them to where they're
probably gonna make double digits. Question is can Louisville defend
UNC on the other end? Honestly, I think they can.
I think Louisville is the better team. Adam roadwros aside,
I just think they're the better team. Money has come toward. Yeah,
Louisville one and a half up to two and a half,
but between Brown and Conwell and company, I think they
make enough threes to get it done here. And just
to finish up the thought on UNC size, Louisville's got
size too. Let's not forget Louisville's not a small team
by any stretch, so I don't know pace is gonna
be rapid. We're staring at one sixty two as a total.
I could see them breaking that barrier as well, But
I think Louisville is probably worth the shot here as
the road favorite.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't have gone digging through my closet for this
sweet quarters that if I didn't think Louisville was the
better team here, just to just to say that. But
like so, I want to go back to a point
you made, and I think this is a part of
the reason you see some of these quote unquote like
sharp spots get overblown. Rob, You've been doing this for
a long time. I've been doing this for a long time,
and you've been doing this, I mean, would put me
to shame in the years you have in this business
on me. And I can go back to so I
first start started doing this professionally back in twenty twelve,
and even back then it was hard. It was it
was still harder to get quote unquote legitimate sharp information, Okay,
meaning yes, theoretically, So I'm just going to use this,
this example from North Carolina on Saturday. Yeah, theoretically, sharp
sharps may have played Syracuse for a reason that's unbeknownst
to us. That could have been they could have been
setting up something, they could have been looking for a
middle or maybe they just you know when I say,
they typically a respected group or you know, someone that's
gonna be able to get down enough places to move
a number, or someone that was respected enough at a
property to move the number, like they have their reasons
for Syracuse. Okay, and so that's so, so we get
the thing. Oh well, Syracuse took sharp money. The problem is, now,
this information is is pretty easy to get. I mean,
you literally can watch our show and Kelly's coming on
and reading off a list that a sportsbook are gave
to her. Right, So it's like it's it's not a set.
It's not as big of a secret anymore. That's all
fine and good, but what makes it tough is the
fact that like everyone out there will run with this info, right,
and then you have maybe you do have a respected
entity that played Syracuse, and then all these people piggyback it,
and now suddenly it's starting to move the market past
where it should. That's what I kind of so I
kind of tune that noise out now I don't even
really want to know, nor does it matter to me.
Like you said, yeah, is what does it probably hit
like fifty percent of the time. So that can never
be the case because again, of course fifty percent of
the time, I mean a coin flip flips the same
fifty percent of the time.
Speaker 2: So that can never be a reason for me. And
I almost think that it's often overblown.
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty six, it's overblown and it and it
could go both ways. You know, you might have some
and especially now, I think that's what we're seeing within
this hour of our show, Rob, is that some of
the money that moves around isn't even legitimate to the
respect where it's like a lot of it's just maybe
setting up the ability to take the other side at
a later point in time. That's kind of what I
felt like happened with Houston here with Kansas took money
at the beginning the ginning of our show knocked this
down to one minus one and a half. I would
be shocked if they don't come back and take Houston,
because that's the side they actually want a little bit
of A kind of got off topic there, but I really,
you know, kind of thought that was the case with
North Carolina. I guess I'll tie it back in with
saying UNC was a team that you know I after
the Duke win, I was like, all right, I do
want to find a spot to play against this team.
Of course I didn't want Miami, but they continue to
I guess prove me wrong.
Speaker 2: I didn't think.
Speaker 1: I don't think Miami's this great team, and yet they
continue to get.
Speaker 2: Result after a result.
Speaker 1: Since then, there really hasn't been a great spot to
go against North Carolina because you had in big time
inferior team with Pitt, big time inferior team with Lieuville
with Syracuse, and then the NC State game where yeah,
you could have faded UNC, but you would have had
to lay like seven points. So this is really like
the first good spot to do do so, in my opinion,
where you're getting a reasonable number with what I consider
the clear better team and if you can stomach Louisville
on the road, which means they're going to have to
make some shots, and I think that's, you know, the
tough part about this. I think Louisville is like the
clear side that should win this game. But goes back
to our initial discussion, and really what has been the
theme of the first half hour of the show. How
much is unc able to get up a home and
how much does the home spot matter, because again, it's
really tough to rule out North Carolina or Kansas winning
their respective games in the environment that will likely be
in these buildings. Tonight makes for a very interesting big Monday,
if you ask me round, Yeah.
Speaker 3: It doesn't. You know, I've got a little tie rade
about how we're gonna get things right. I went back
and looked up the you know, revesar and then I wish,
you know, for those that watch us every day, and
you know, we come with a lot of this stuff
off the top of our heads. And I'm sure Adam
are the same way. In the middle of talking half
the time breaking down games, there's so much going through
my head. I'm kind of like jumping to the next point,
to the next point, to the next point inside my head. Yeah,
try and calm that down. And at some point, like
in that cartoon Beavis and butt Head, the light bulb
just short circuits and I wind up calling Javon Hadley
jv On Bradley. So bear with me a little bit.
There's too many thoughts going on inside here. It's been
thirty three years, by the way, nineteen ninety two that
have been in this business. And to your point, real quick,
I met a guy in Las Vegas when I first
got to town, when I was living there for eleven
twelve years, and he made that exact point to me.
He told me, if you're playing line moves, if you're
strictly walking up, you're like a fifty dollars better, saying,
oh my god, somebody knows something because the line moved
on that game. If you're doing that exclusively, you're fifty
to fifty better. I think what people have to realize
really quick is that line moves they're classified as sharp
all the time. Like we have a we use the
Odds logic system Adam where half the time during the
day I hear this voice club and say sharp play short.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that thing they made that update. That thing
goes off every two seconds.
Speaker 2: I had to mute that.
Speaker 1: I had to mute the sharp play voice. How many
sharp plays can there be? Rob It never stops, you know.
Speaker 3: They're all short plays. But what you have to remember
is even these sharp plays, the book makers win a
lot of these plays too. So if you're bumping or
if you're bucking a line move, you're not alone. The
odds makers are on your side in that instance. So
it works both ways. But real quick, apologies to Javon Hadley.
We're doing our main pronunciation as best we can. And
for UNC, last point I'll make about this game, because
you said Louisville's gonna have to make shots. I believe
UNC's league worst three point defense will have a lot
to do with Louisville making shots. But if it comes
down to the free throw line at them, one team
shoots them really well Louisville. One team shoots them not
great at all UNC. So if it comes down to
the free throw line at the end of the game,
could be a Louisville advantage as well.
Speaker 2: All right, we.
Speaker 1: Will move on some good talk about the two big
games tonight, and apologies if you're you know, still just.
Speaker 2: As puzzled as we are.
Speaker 1: But I think we I think we led you in
a direction there, and like I said, I'll I may
use one of those as my parlay leg, but I'm
gonna give it till the end of the show. In
the meantime, we're gonna hit We're gonna hit as much
of the extra extra board as we can here over
the next twenty five to thirty minutes. Double the firepower
CBB package, get you all of my plays, all of
Rob's plays.
Speaker 2: We have a three day option.
Speaker 1: If you email in to customer support, we'll give you
the rest of the season at a heavily discounted rate.
And I can tell you right now, I haven't locked
anything in yet for today. I will have a five
percent er tomorrow, like pretty much as soon as as
soon as I'm allowed to post it, which will probably
be like first thing in the morning tomorrow, I will
I'm already working on Tuesday, and I've definitely got one
that is likely five percent.
Speaker 2: So I suppose you know, just you know, if you
do the three day you'll.
Speaker 1: At least you'll know you're gonna get a five percenter tomorrow.
But there are options for today, so let's go to Garth.
Appreciate the donation, Garth, and I didn't mean to push
you off for twenty minutes, but I wanted to do
a little double feature because we have two massive games
followed by a very limited extra board today.
Speaker 2: But the I know, I know, our guy buy you
bets will be kind of fired.
Speaker 1: Up for this slate because it looks like the extra
board is pretty much the Southland Conference in action, and
so Garth wants to go out to buy you bets
his hometown home area. I don't know if he grew
up there, but I think he either went there or
this is this is where he goes to games. I
believe this is Hammond, Louisiana. Keith correct me if I'm wrong.
This is where Southeast Louisiana will host Texas A and
M Corpus Christie tonight. And for Garth, he says, give
me Corpus Christy.
Speaker 2: My one and a half Bayou calls it Hammond America.
I love that.
Speaker 1: I still have to get down their teeth. Well, probably
next season we will absolutely get to a SELAG game.
Speaker 2: It'd be nice if they were like I want them.
Speaker 1: I try to go places when the team teams are good,
so eight and twenty is not gonna cut it. That's
what Southeast That's what Southeast Louisiana is on the season.
I watched them play a day game not too long
ago against against East Texas A and M, and it
was dreadful. Rob They're now five and fourteen in south
Land Play. They're in last place. I gotta be honest,
that's surprising to me. I did not I did not
have them finishing this finishing last.
Speaker 3: In this league.
Speaker 1: I thought they were more of a middle of the
pack team in this league. Corpus Christi coming into the
year was one of the ones where I thought was
like a little bit overrated by the name, because of
course they've had some successive late they get some name recognition,
but they have been the far better of these two teams.
So the question is, you know, do you do you
just roll with Garth and lay the very very cheap
money line or minus one and a half or does
that seem fishy to you? A and M on the
road against the last place team, yet you just pretty
much need them to win Southland basketball on a Monday night.
Speaker 2: Do you have any thoughts there? And what about the total?
Speaker 3: Yeah, well you got one to look back on. Because
Corpus Christi wins this game first time around sixty eight
fifty six. All aspects of that game go their way
pretty much. There's no statistical category where Southeast and Louisiana
was better than Corpus Christie at Corpus Christie's home floor. So,
like I say, you do have that in your favor.
And then you know, as somebody who usually in past,
let's say the last ten years, somebody who's usually involved
in the south Land Conference a little bit here, maybe
the last two years even more because Will Wade was
that Denise that I think a lot of my action
was on McNeese games. But this year I have not
found myself drifting towards the Southland for action, even on
totals where obviously the majority of my thought process goes here.
I think, in simplistic terms, Corpus Christie we said this
about Houston being what we thought was the better team
on the road as a road favorite. I feel like
Corpus Christi is the better team on the road short
short price road favorite. There's a couple of things in
their favor. Hey, it's hard to expect teams to do
to do you anything well as far as casing tickets
is concerned, when they can't shoot the basketball. In Southeast Louisiana,
it's just as one of the worst teams in the
league shooting the basketball. Inside conference games, the other side
shoots it a little bit, especially from three and they
get to the free throw line. So those two things
combined help you in a game like this. Total is
where I would look in this, Adam, or at least
it's the one thing that would have my interest. And
even with my interest at one thirty one, it seems
like you can get games. I say this all the
time in modern day basketball, up and over a price
tag of one thirty and a half one thirty one. However,
the brutal shooting of Southeastern Louisiana stops me a little bit.
And without enough background, I'll take what you said and
bank it on how horrible it was to watch Southeastern
Louisiana one time this year.
Speaker 2: But you can't.
Speaker 3: I can't trust their offense to do enough here, So
for me, very very weak siding with Garth here on
the better team. And the last thing I'll say is
where standings are concerned, it's important to corpus Christi here.
They sit in a position where they could actually climb
up a couple of notches in the standings. This week
they're sitting at five. They could get as high as
three if things break their way. For Southeastern Louisiana, I'm
not sure what there is to play for unless this
is probably senior night down there. I'm not sure. I'd
have to look at the remainder of the schedule, but
a lot of senior Knights are going on, you know.
That kind of stuff helps sometimes in a one for
the gipper type game. I don't know that that's this though,
I would probably still look at Corpus Christy in this spot.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm with So that's the only way I
could play, would be to just even though even though
it's like one of those games where you know you're
you're you could be kicking yourself or just playing like
what appears to be the very obvious road like one
point favorite listen, Corpus Christy comes off losses to Steven F.
Speaker 2: Austin and then on the road to McNeice.
Speaker 1: Not many teams like those are two teams that not
many teams in this league are going to do better
than zero and two.
Speaker 2: Again, so no.
Speaker 1: Real shame there, right, Like, and over the weekend, they
actually hung around with McNeice early in the game and
then it kind of got away from them, and I
feel like they almost maybe mentally said, all right, this
is kind of the result we expected, right Because of
course you know McNeese.
Speaker 2: We've talked about this.
Speaker 1: McNeice is a team that has been a little bit
vulnerable on the road this year, far more so than
they were in the Will Wade era era. But they're
still taking care of business at home. So I don't
think that Corpus Christy really probably felt like, Yo, they
go into this road trip weekend, right, you're playing McNeice
and you're playing Southeast Louisiana.
Speaker 2: Without a doubt they have to like be coming.
Speaker 1: In this weekend saying like we can't lose the Southeast
Louisiana game.
Speaker 2: Like we're hitting the road, We've got two games.
Speaker 1: It would be like such a nice bonus to beat McNeice,
but we got to split this trip one and one.
We have to at least win the Southeast Louisiana game. Now,
had that played out differently on Saturday rob where A
and M Corpus Christie found themselves in an absolute dog
fight and then like lost by one, I'd be less
inclined to to play them here, right because I'd be like,
you know, if they just had like this crippling defeat
where they put everything into it and then had to
turn around and play another road game. That's bad, but
that's not what happened. McNeice pulled away in the second half.
It was a seventy to fifty four final, and I
think mentally at Corpus Christie started probably was able to
start focusing on this game. So if you get any
sort of like legitimate effort here from Texas A and MCC,
I don't see how they lose, right, I just it's
Southeast Louisiana just doesn't put the ball in the basket.
Speaker 2: And we joked about this the other day.
Speaker 1: Still the name of the game here, Rob, it's still basketball,
doesn't matter what all the like, you know, stat sheet
says if you cannot put the ball through the hoop,
that's a problem, and that's a problem for Southeast Louisiana
and so Garth, I think I'm with you on the
Islanders in this game, Rob, before I jump back it.
Speaker 2: So I'll go to you.
Speaker 1: Do you have a we'll probably talk about three more
games over the next twenty minutes. Do you have a
game in mind for the parlay that wasn't one of
the three we talked about so far? No, Okay, that's
all right, so we will We'll keep working through this,
and let's let's do this. I want to talk about
the Rio Grand Valley McNeese State game.
Speaker 2: That's one that's interesting to me.
Speaker 1: I see some people in the chat talking about that one,
and then we'll kind of see where the discussion takes
us the rest of the way.
Speaker 2: I'm with you, Robbie.
Speaker 1: I think I'm probably going to end up using one
of the games we've already talked about for the parlay.
Speaker 2: But the reason this one is.
Speaker 1: Interesting to me is I came into the season with
sort of like a game plan of how I wanted
to bet against McNeese State in Southland Play. And what
that game plan essentially was was I want to take
the teams I basically rated the you know, put my
ranking of the league with teams that I think were
i'll call them worthwhile teams for lack of a better term,
meaning teams that I thought could end up somewhere near
the top half of the league. And my goal was
to fade McNeice against these teams on the road. And
it actually came out and was it was awesome. We
cashed the very opening night of south Land Play. Gave
it out on this show, Increnet word ends up beating
McNeese State outright. The next spot came up, we actually
cashed with that one as well, Houston Houston Christian. They
covered a double digit spread where McNeice won by ten
but was never really up by that much. And then
the next the next spot that came up was ut
Rio Grand Valley and McNee State lost that game down in.
Speaker 2: Edinburgh, Texas.
Speaker 1: So the reason I bring all of that up is
McNeice has actually not been as good at home against
these sort of better teams either. And you know the
Steven F. Austin's another one. We talked about it on
this show where we started to notice that the value
started to go south a little bit. If you remember
by you loved Steven F. Austin in that game, And
I said, man, but like all of a sudden, like McNeice,
we're kind of being asked to like win this game now,
not just like cover a number. And sure enough, Steven F.
Austin won that game sixty seven sixty. So I bring
all of that up to say McNeice has now won
five straight since that game, and they've done it in
some cases by margin. They covered a big number at
home against Incrnet word. They didn't cover against Houston Christian.
They smashed East Texas A and M, which is atrocious team. Again,
that's not surprising. Those are not the types of teams
I want to play against. McNeese State. Over the weekend
they covered against Corpus Christy, and I wonder if this
is the spot to jump in and fade them even
though they're at home. So I am tempted to take
the points here, and actually I'm going to I'm gonna
do it, you know what, I'm gonna do it. This
is gonna be my parlay. Leg I'm gonna take Rio
Grand Valley plus the ten and a half. I they
won the first meeting and it's on the heels of
them sort of sort of, you know, putting in a
big second half to beat Texas A and M Corpus Christy.
I think this game ends up being pretty competitive. So
that's gonna be my parlay. Wait UTRGV plus the ten
and a half points? Thoughts, and do you have anything
for totals since, as you said, you've been on mckneye
State from a total standpoint for a couple of years now.
Speaker 3: A couple of things to talk about here that probably
support the case for Rio grand A. They won the
first time around, but you counted that by saying this
is a pretty good McNee revenge spot. So in that game,
adam really quickly. They had a forty one to eighteen lead.
Rio Grand Valley did up by twenty three against this team.
I'd like to know the less time has to be
prior to will wait when McNeice was ever down by
twenty three to anybody. But McNeice is also dealing with
I'm trying to get confirmation as we seek a pretty
significant injury here to Javan Garcia, who didn't play on Saturday,
third leading scorer on the team, second best three point
shooter on the team, obviously a big factor did play
in this game the first time around against Corpus Christi.
In that one he had, he didn't play as big
of a role in that one. Six points in that
particular contest still makes mcneis a little bit depth shy
if he can't play. And you know, calling McNeice depth
shy is probably a bad term because they run so
many guys out there. It's been like a constant from
Will Wade till now where they play multiple players. But
it takes away one starting piece here for them. We'll
see if it has a bearing on the game. But
Real Grand Valley's the best shooting team in the league.
Number one shooting twos, number one shooting threes. I mean,
they bring a definite force to this game that has
to be reckoned with, especially in this price range. And
whether or not McNee State has revenge or not, winning
by ten is a pretty big hurdle to clear against
the team that's playing as good as anybody right now.
I think when I just looked, Real Grand had lost
one game in like their last thirteen or fourteen games,
just one time, so you got a couple of really
hot teams here at this point in time. I think
that Real Grand plus points even though they're on the
opponent's home floor, even though the opponent is the best
team in the league, and they have revenge. But the
injury situation may be a little bit here, And I
think your overall point that you made way back in
November and just reiterated here is kind of valid. With that,
maybe McNeice against teams that can push back against them
is just a little bit overpriced. This entire league can't
push back against MCNI least they get steamroll. But teams
like Rio Grand who have capabilities, especially on the offensive end,
for this team, maybe catching a couple too many here,
So I would lean that way as well, and we'll
take that home as part of the parlay here. Let's
go get it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was just starting to uh, I was starting
to look through the standings here and and do this off.
So right now, your top four in the Southland is
Stephen F. Austin McNeice is in second. Then you've got
Rio Grand and New Orleans and of those four teams
that have sort of emerged as the as the top
four at least coming into play today, McNeice has covered
one of those games, and they covered by half a
point against New Orleans, and I think, I think, depending
on you may have there may have even been a
scenario where you could have, you know, if you've got
a good number with New Orleans that you may have
covered because they're covered by a half point. So again,
didn't lose out right to UTRG the first time. They
don't cover either of the games against steven M Boston.
They're thirteen and oh at home this season. But that's
so deceiving, Rob because it's like they're they're you know,
they've won a lot of these games, but haven't done
it by margin. And the ones they do win by
margin is like the bottom half of this league, which
is really bad. So like when you get down to
the very bottom of this league, the East Texas A
and MS the Southeast Louisiana is like, you know, those
are just just bad basketball teams. And again, I think
you're talking about like ten and a half is probably
the right number, ten ten and a half, But this
is one where I'm kind of like just willing to
trust what I saw on the first meeting.
Speaker 2: Bio says it could be a sneaky over.
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with that, So again, I'm just I'm
gonna roll with the plus ten. There's not as much
on this slate today, and you know, as far as
the games we've talked about so far, it's probably my
you know, I want to I want to let the
board move around for the big games a little bit
more so that those might actually end up being a
client play for me. But for the show, we'll go
with plus ten. Of course, we start talking about it
and it goes from ten and a half to ten
and there's some spots that are even at nine and
a half. So who knows if it's that's user, if
that's some other folks seeing like a big number.
Speaker 2: But yeah, Rio Grand plus ten parlay leg for me.
Speaker 3: And that push Adam could be somebody knowing something about Garcia.
Speaker 2: I knew, Yeah, great point.
Speaker 3: When I said it, it was wrong because I had
in my notes here Garcia was a factor in the
first game, and when I was talking, I had the
wrong box score pulled up saying he only scored six
against Rio Cran the first time, and it's not the case.
He had nineteen. So, like I said, I knew my
notes had him as a significant piece here, and if
he doesn't go, I mean losing, losing your second best
three point shooter, et cetera, et cetera, out of that
starting unit. Yes, McNeice is deep, but I don't know.
It seems like real Grand Valley would have enough offense
to push back here against them and cover that type
of number.
Speaker 2: All right, Rob, let's let's do this. Let's talk.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the other two top Southland teams in
action today. I saw someone in the chat note that
Stephen F. Austin is fifteen to zero at home this year,
steven F. Austin is pretty much a guarante, it's borderline
guaranteed to win the league. At this point, they are
a twelve and a half point home favorite against New
Orleans season fourth right now, So what that should tell you,
I mean, there would have to be like mountains would
have to move for them to not win this league,
because even next week when they're on the road, it's
Houston Christian and Increnet word. I've got to believe that
it would be shocking to me if steven F. Austin
loses one more and if they lose one more, they
still want they've still won the league by themselves, because
of course they're eighteen and one in league play and
McNeice is sixteen and three. With that being said, New
Orleans this was a team that right off the right,
they skewed their rating a Night one of the college
basketball season by beating TCU.
Speaker 2: So to me, like I'm.
Speaker 1: Actually a little bit surprised that they've been able to
keep this up in conference play. Like I thought this
was was a team that was probably gonna regress based
on what they did in the non conference, which is
of course, not only did they beat TCU, they beat Tulane.
That's another really good win. They took Mississippi State into overtime.
I believe Mississippi State needed like a three to either
tie or win that game. So I'm actually kind of,
I guess, pleasantly surprised with New Orleans that they've been
able to, you know, sort of factor into this league.
I thought they'd fall back to the middle of the pack.
So they now go to the top team in this league.
There's been an absolute monster at home. Is there any
way you could take those points or do you think
steven F.
Speaker 2: Boston is just too good?
Speaker 3: Well, if you want to take them, and you go
through steven F. Boston Southland Conference game logs, you find
out that they've only won by this amount four times
in sixteen games. They've won a bunch of games, but
then won a bunch of games by thirteen and New Orleans.
Actually that game took a severe reversal. New Orleans had
a ten point lead that turned into a fourteen point
deficit in the second half. So twenty four point swingers
in no way, shape or form do I want to
be against steven F. Boston at this point? In time,
and to your point, Adam, let's just use the try
and get inside, because we've done enough of this over
the years. I think you mentioned that earlier, to try
and at least be inside the mindset of a team.
For Stephen at Boston Lee, clinching is probably going to
come at some point, and when you're in this type
of league, Southland League, clinching isn't everything. Then you have
to go win the south Land Tournament otherwise you don't
go to the NCAA's end of story. Right, as good
as their season has been, if they don't win the
conference tournament, or even if they get tripped up here
at the end of the season here and wind up
with four losses, it would be tough if they didn't
win the conference tournament. That being said, you'd expect full
attention on this game and then maybe a little more
of a lackadaisical effort against the has beens that they're
gonna play next week, maybe their final game. They take
it a little bit easier. They got to look here
and see if it's at home, because that won't be
the case now I see they wrap up on the road.
Houston Christian might be a game where you could get
to the dog thinking that, you know, Steven F. Austin
isn't going to apply themselves. But I don't know that
this is one of those type games. All that said,
New Orleans has made a focal point with the money
provided by master p to try and become a better program,
and as you said, they've stepped up a little bit.
I don't know. I don't want to lay twelve and
a half in this game. I think if it were me,
I'd be a little bit more comfortable here playing the
Steven F. Boston team total at home, which is eighty
one and a half, I'd feel a little more positive
about them getting to eighty two against this New Orleans defense,
which hasn't been great so far this season. Inside the league,
they rank near the bottom or at least in the
bottom half. So without without Stephen F. Boston proving that
they can win by this margin enough, only winning by
this margin, you know, four out of sixteen is twenty
five percent of the time. It's hard to back that
in lay twelve and a half. In fact, we'll go
back to talking about make these being overvalued at this
point in time. Is Stephen F. Austin a little bit
overvalued as far as home favorite role is concerned, so
I'd probably let that pass. I would think New Orleans
could might be able to sneak in under the number
and maybe a look at the Steven F. Boston team
total in what better is at least think there's going
to be a pretty high scoring game because the total
was set high to begin with, but it's been pushed
even higher now I'm looking at some one to fifteen
and a half off of a one forty nine opener,
So a little movement towards the full game over here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're I think you're paying a pretty big premium
to back Stephen F.
Speaker 2: Austin here. This was a five point game in the
first meeting. Yeah they are.
Speaker 1: I mean my numbers is closer to nine, so twelve
and a half. It's like, I think you're paying a
pretty big tax for seen you know, quote unquote see it.
Do they even call it senior night anymore? Like half
these guys don't stay at the same school for four years.
But let's call it the last home game of the
year undefeated home record, which is what Steven F.
Speaker 2: Austin will be going for tonite.
Speaker 1: They're fifteen to zero at home, they'll probably get win
number sixteen. But I guess I'm you know, here's what
I think is maybe overblown a little bit and over
baked into the number. This is their fourth straight road game.
But if you know how this league, like, they always
they're always gonna play in pairs, right, It's gonna be
a Saturday Monday league most of the time. So yeah,
they are on their fourth straight road game for New Orleans.
But it's like, Okay, that's just back to back road trips.
It's gonna happen to everyone at least once for the
most part in conference play. I don't know that that's
like a crazy horrible spot for them, you know, quick
trip over to the Texas schools and then now you're
taking I'm sorry, two trips to Texas for New Orleans,
which is not horrible travel. So I think that it's
I think this is a big number. I would look
to take the dog here as well. All right, Robino,
they would like to know what your parlay leg is,
they said. The the Rio Grand Valley spread is moving
a little bit. Listen, I'll attach juice to it so
we can still get our ten or ten and a
half in the parlay. So what do you got, Rob,
What are you gonna lock in for the two team
or today?
Speaker 3: I'll go back to one of the games, Adam, And
again I didn't play either of these as of yet,
but I'm gonna go to instinct here on this one.
We talked for at length, dissected these games, almost every
detail of these games, and the odds makers at this
time of year do a really good job of setting
numbers straight. But I'm gonna play the Louisville team total
over Adam. It's just for me. By the way, the
number is eighty one and a half over minus one twenty.
So again, for those of you guys out there who
only have a single outlet, Adam says this all the time.
If your single outlet is gonna show you eighty two
and a half, just all play it back and lay
the twenty cents the consensus number.
Speaker 2: One, I'll price it in.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna put minus one twenty on both parlay legs,
so you have the room to do that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, there you go. Because again, across the thirty books
that we're allowed to see here on the Odds logic screen,
the concents, this number pops up as eighty one and
a half over minus one twenty. Give you a couple
of reasons why. The biggest reason, I think is the
Louisville three point shooting. I just don't see North Carolina.
They haven't been able to defend the three all season long,
and it's kind of not close. Adam like, the percentage
of threes that they're giving up inside the league play
is thirty nine point four and the next worst team
is Miami at only thirty eight percent. When there's a
one and a half percent gaps, that's a huge gap.
It may not look like a lot, but that's a
huge gap disparity. So it shows you how bad North
Carolina has been. And as I said earlier, between Hadley,
Conwell Brown, all these guys that just shoot threes, and
then at the same time you get a lot of
mid range or to the rim stuff with these guys.
So I know North Carolina protects the rim. It's what
their best at. They're not necessarily a shot blocking team,
more of a short a shot altering team than blocking team.
But Louisville's gonna find their way to the line. In
my opinion, I think they're gonna sink some threes here
and the pace is what sold me on this one.
Most of all is that North Carolina is going to
be rapid fire. It just amazes me how far we've
come this year with this particular team, thinking that they
might be more defensive oriented. They're not. So give me
Louisville team total up and over eighty one and a half.
Speaker 1: All right, went a little longer on a couple of
these today because there's only so many games. We will
be back tomorrow more of your traditional full court press show,
but appreciate you guys hanging with us today. Two teamer
for today will go Rio Grand Valley plus ten and
we'll go Louisville Team total over eighty one and a half.
Enjoy your Monday, everyone, Rob and I'll be back ten
am tomorrow morning for more full court press