WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.640 --> 00:00:01.480 Justice. 2 00:00:04.599 --> 00:00:06.960 All right, welcome to the Jim Acosta Show. And it's 3 00:00:07.080 --> 00:00:11.080 roughly eighty days or so until the midterms. The election's 4 00:00:11.119 --> 00:00:14.640 coming up this fall in November. Perfect guest to talk 5 00:00:14.640 --> 00:00:18.679 about this. Where the polls stand, where Democrats stand. Are 6 00:00:18.679 --> 00:00:20.679 they in a better position than perhaps they were a 7 00:00:20.679 --> 00:00:21.519 couple of weeks ago? 8 00:00:21.719 --> 00:00:23.000 What about Donald Trump? 9 00:00:23.079 --> 00:00:25.519 Of course, our friend Larry Sabado, the director of the 10 00:00:25.600 --> 00:00:27.839 UVA Center of Politics. 11 00:00:27.399 --> 00:00:29.760 Is with us. And Larry great to see as always, 12 00:00:29.800 --> 00:00:30.480 Thanks for coming on. 13 00:00:31.120 --> 00:00:33.079 Always glad to be with you, Jim, one of our 14 00:00:33.159 --> 00:00:37.280 Center for Politics scholars at the University of Virginia. See it. 15 00:00:37.399 --> 00:00:38.119 That's a plug. 16 00:00:38.359 --> 00:00:41.119 I appreciate that. Does that mean I am still a scholar? 17 00:00:41.159 --> 00:00:41.759 I like that. 18 00:00:41.759 --> 00:00:45.079 That's your darn right you are until you're notified. You're not, 19 00:00:45.600 --> 00:00:47.719 so it can go on for a century. 20 00:00:48.320 --> 00:00:48.719 Very good. 21 00:00:48.759 --> 00:00:51.840 Hey, I'll take it, you know what. It's something I'll 22 00:00:51.840 --> 00:00:54.119 put on the resume and have it there with pride. 23 00:00:54.119 --> 00:00:55.280 So appreciate that. 24 00:00:55.280 --> 00:00:57.399 I always love getting down to Charlottesville, and I will 25 00:00:57.439 --> 00:00:59.880 say the new center is terrific it congrats to you 26 00:01:00.079 --> 00:01:03.640 on that. But there's not a lot of congratulations going on, 27 00:01:04.239 --> 00:01:06.879 I suppose on the Republican side for Donald Trump. With 28 00:01:06.959 --> 00:01:11.000 these midterms coming up and the way these polls are 29 00:01:11.079 --> 00:01:14.040 shaping up, it's looking like a wipeout. 30 00:01:14.040 --> 00:01:15.400 I was just looking at some of the polling. 31 00:01:16.040 --> 00:01:19.680 I mean just this week, just the past week, an 32 00:01:19.760 --> 00:01:22.760 economist you gov poll found that Trump is at a 33 00:01:22.799 --> 00:01:26.879 thirty three percent approval rating. That is lower, I think, 34 00:01:26.920 --> 00:01:30.760 than just about anywhere he was during his first administration, 35 00:01:31.120 --> 00:01:34.000 and that is right around the area he was hovering 36 00:01:34.120 --> 00:01:37.799 after January sixth. This is devastating and I was pointing 37 00:01:37.840 --> 00:01:40.359 this out to another guest the other day. This is 38 00:01:40.359 --> 00:01:42.879 worse than where he was in twenty eighteen, and that 39 00:01:43.000 --> 00:01:44.599 was a disastrous bid term cycle. 40 00:01:44.799 --> 00:01:45.879 How do you see this shaping up? 41 00:01:45.959 --> 00:01:49.920 Larry, Well, as you know, things have changed since twenty eighteen, 42 00:01:50.000 --> 00:01:58.000 and the Republicans have run a successful ploy with redistricting 43 00:01:58.079 --> 00:02:01.319 that they won the game as far as that's concerned, 44 00:02:01.400 --> 00:02:05.239 not control of the House, but they have reduced inevitably 45 00:02:05.280 --> 00:02:08.560 whatever gains the Democrats have. In fact, when you look 46 00:02:08.680 --> 00:02:11.960 to see whatever the Democrats gain, add ten or twelve 47 00:02:12.000 --> 00:02:14.800 to it. That's what it would have been without the 48 00:02:14.840 --> 00:02:20.680 Republican redistricting. Let's not forget the Supreme Court's helpful decision 49 00:02:20.800 --> 00:02:24.840 about Section two of the Voting Rights Act. The two 50 00:02:24.960 --> 00:02:28.639 work in concert, the Republicans who run the States and 51 00:02:28.680 --> 00:02:30.680 the Republicans who run the Supreme Court. 52 00:02:31.680 --> 00:02:34.080 Yeah, there's no question about it. They did soften the 53 00:02:34.080 --> 00:02:38.319 blow of these terms. But even despite that, we're seeing 54 00:02:38.800 --> 00:02:41.120 a lot of Senate seats in play that perhaps were 55 00:02:41.159 --> 00:02:43.280 not going to be in play. Obviously, the House is 56 00:02:43.280 --> 00:02:45.879 still looking like it's going to go to the Democrats. 57 00:02:46.039 --> 00:02:47.879 How are the folks at your crystal Ball. You guys 58 00:02:47.879 --> 00:02:52.599 put out that terrific crystal Ball forecast a lot of 59 00:02:52.759 --> 00:02:54.919 seats trending in the Democratic direction. 60 00:02:56.000 --> 00:02:59.400 Yes, it seems like every time we changed the ratings, 61 00:02:59.520 --> 00:03:03.120 the rating has become more favorable for Democrats. I would 62 00:03:03.199 --> 00:03:07.120 say at this point, you're looking at Democrats being somewhere 63 00:03:07.199 --> 00:03:11.639 in the two twenties. And if the more optimistic polls 64 00:03:11.680 --> 00:03:16.120 are correct, and we've all gotten lessons very recently Soda 65 00:03:16.759 --> 00:03:20.360 and Michigan not to believe in Wisconsin, not to believe 66 00:03:20.960 --> 00:03:26.400 necessarily what they report, But if they're indicating anything close 67 00:03:26.439 --> 00:03:29.000 to what is actually going to happen, then Democrats will 68 00:03:29.000 --> 00:03:33.199 have a good and possibly great night. The key is 69 00:03:33.280 --> 00:03:36.840 whether Democrats stick together if they actually take over one 70 00:03:36.960 --> 00:03:39.840 or both houses, can they do what the Republicans have 71 00:03:39.960 --> 00:03:43.719 done with the majority of next to nothing? And I 72 00:03:43.759 --> 00:03:47.520 hope they can. But you know, Democrats wouldn't be Democrats 73 00:03:47.560 --> 00:03:49.400 if they weren't fighting among themselves. 74 00:03:49.759 --> 00:03:51.719 Yeah. Well, and you mentioned a couple of things to 75 00:03:51.759 --> 00:03:52.199 that point. 76 00:03:52.280 --> 00:03:55.879 I mean, we saw the race in Wisconsin where a 77 00:03:55.960 --> 00:03:59.560 pretty far left I guess self described socialist was on 78 00:03:59.599 --> 00:04:02.520 the ballot at Francesca Hang. She was running for governor 79 00:04:03.039 --> 00:04:07.719 against Crowley, the more establishment choice. She lost, even though 80 00:04:07.719 --> 00:04:10.960 the polls had shown she was far ahead of Crowley. 81 00:04:10.960 --> 00:04:13.240 And here's the New York Times headline, how the polls 82 00:04:13.240 --> 00:04:15.919 got it so wrong in Wisconsin. And you know, not 83 00:04:16.000 --> 00:04:18.319 to go after a political scientist, Larry, because you're kind 84 00:04:18.360 --> 00:04:19.279 of a political scientist. 85 00:04:19.319 --> 00:04:21.639 But what the heck's going on with political scientists these days? 86 00:04:21.879 --> 00:04:26.439 Well, the one I know is doing very well. I 87 00:04:26.439 --> 00:04:29.439 hope you got that. Yeah, the one, the one I know, 88 00:04:29.759 --> 00:04:33.079 the one, ye see, I had to explain it to you. 89 00:04:33.399 --> 00:04:34.120 Yeah, that's okay. 90 00:04:34.360 --> 00:04:38.319 Through that in class. They don't laugh either, So I understand. Look, 91 00:04:39.439 --> 00:04:44.439 I would say the pollsters didn't necessarily get it as 92 00:04:44.480 --> 00:04:48.800 wrong as it looks on the surface in that primaries 93 00:04:48.800 --> 00:04:53.079 have always been tough to survey. Why is that because 94 00:04:53.439 --> 00:04:55.480 people say they're going to vote and they're not. They're 95 00:04:55.480 --> 00:04:57.920 not used to voting on whatever day it turns out 96 00:04:57.959 --> 00:05:02.160 to be. Second, of all, the vast majority of people 97 00:05:02.199 --> 00:05:06.879 who vote in a primary are indeed identifiers with that party. Now, 98 00:05:07.040 --> 00:05:11.000 open primaries like we've had recently are a little bit different, 99 00:05:11.000 --> 00:05:13.839 but not really. There aren't that many Republicans that vote 100 00:05:13.879 --> 00:05:17.759 in Democratic primaries and vice versa. And so the people 101 00:05:17.839 --> 00:05:21.319 who are, say Democrats voting in a Democratic primary, well 102 00:05:21.360 --> 00:05:24.680 that means they're looking at the candidates, all of whom 103 00:05:24.839 --> 00:05:28.959 are fellow Democrats. So it's much easier to switch from 104 00:05:29.000 --> 00:05:32.759 one to another to another based on whatever the headlines 105 00:05:32.800 --> 00:05:37.120 are that particular day, and they don't know much about 106 00:05:37.120 --> 00:05:40.079 many of these candidates. That's always true in primaries, which 107 00:05:40.120 --> 00:05:44.920 are used to introduce introduce candidates to voters. So I'm 108 00:05:44.920 --> 00:05:48.319 not willing to say that they were completely wrong or 109 00:05:48.360 --> 00:05:53.759 that they were terribly wrong, but they certainly exaggerated hongs total. 110 00:05:53.800 --> 00:05:59.480 They exaggerated El sai Ed's total in Michigan. They made 111 00:05:59.519 --> 00:06:02.680 the men Soda Senate race on the Democratic side look 112 00:06:03.000 --> 00:06:06.079 virtually tied when it turned out to be a landslide margin. 113 00:06:06.560 --> 00:06:07.800 Yeah, thank you planning it. 114 00:06:08.040 --> 00:06:09.839 So, you know, there are lots of examples of this. 115 00:06:09.959 --> 00:06:12.800 I always tell people, read the polls and it's fun 116 00:06:12.800 --> 00:06:14.759 to do it, you know, then go to Calshi and 117 00:06:14.759 --> 00:06:17.439 waste your money and bet whatever you need to do, 118 00:06:17.839 --> 00:06:22.720 But don't take them seriously because they're not votes. Polls 119 00:06:22.839 --> 00:06:26.680 are not votes. Money is not a vote. You know. 120 00:06:26.959 --> 00:06:30.720 They're critical parts of the process, but don't take them 121 00:06:30.759 --> 00:06:31.800 so seriously. 122 00:06:32.120 --> 00:06:35.560 They're snapshots, and they can be a snapshot in time. 123 00:06:35.600 --> 00:06:38.279 I mean, you and I've witnessed this first, you know, firsthand, 124 00:06:38.279 --> 00:06:40.600 watching a lot of these races over the last what twenty, 125 00:06:40.800 --> 00:06:44.000 you know, thirty years. But I think something else could 126 00:06:44.040 --> 00:06:46.639 be going on in addition to the polling being off it. 127 00:06:46.639 --> 00:06:49.360 It may just be that Democrats that once they get 128 00:06:49.600 --> 00:06:51.759 you know, a full whiff of some of these candidates, 129 00:06:52.079 --> 00:06:54.079 as it gets close to election time, they change their 130 00:06:54.079 --> 00:06:55.839 mind and they you know, and I think in the 131 00:06:55.879 --> 00:06:58.879 case of Wisconsin, maybe the voters decided to make a 132 00:06:58.879 --> 00:07:00.279 more pragmatic choice. 133 00:07:00.920 --> 00:07:03.000 Maybe in Michigan, all of. 134 00:07:02.959 --> 00:07:06.800 That money that was dumped on behalf of Haley Stevens 135 00:07:06.839 --> 00:07:10.560 against Abdul al Sayed had a negative effect against Lsied. 136 00:07:10.800 --> 00:07:11.759 Do you think that could be. 137 00:07:11.720 --> 00:07:14.439 Part of it too, that there just were other dynamic 138 00:07:14.519 --> 00:07:17.720 forces at play and the Democratic Party just hasn't figured 139 00:07:17.720 --> 00:07:19.759 out which way they want to go here, and they're 140 00:07:19.800 --> 00:07:22.319 sort of doing this case by Kate. You know, in 141 00:07:22.360 --> 00:07:24.120 New York, of course it's going to be much more 142 00:07:24.160 --> 00:07:28.120 progressive in some cases socialists, but Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan not 143 00:07:28.199 --> 00:07:28.639 so much. 144 00:07:30.040 --> 00:07:35.079 Basically, I think a core of Democrats, big core, because 145 00:07:35.079 --> 00:07:38.759 of what Trump has done and because of their emotional 146 00:07:39.279 --> 00:07:43.120 reaction to him, and I would say even hatred for 147 00:07:43.160 --> 00:07:47.040 the vast majority. They want to pick a winner. They're 148 00:07:47.079 --> 00:07:49.600 trying to pick a winner. They're trying to be pragmatic, 149 00:07:49.680 --> 00:07:52.959 even if in fact they are more liberal than the 150 00:07:53.000 --> 00:07:55.639 candidate they're voting for. And of course that was done 151 00:07:55.639 --> 00:07:58.600 in twenty twenty. They picked Joe Biden. By no means 152 00:07:58.720 --> 00:08:01.720 was he anything close to the most liberal candidate up 153 00:08:01.759 --> 00:08:04.319 on the stage. But they knew they had to get 154 00:08:04.360 --> 00:08:07.079 rid of Donald Trump, if only they'd known what was coming. 155 00:08:07.399 --> 00:08:09.680 But still you have to work with what you've got. 156 00:08:10.000 --> 00:08:13.319 So that's a good thing that Democrats are being pragmatic. 157 00:08:13.959 --> 00:08:17.839 In the case of hom My God. In the last 158 00:08:18.079 --> 00:08:21.959 several weeks, she got negative headline after negative headline. That's 159 00:08:21.959 --> 00:08:24.639 where the polls hurt her, because the polls kind of 160 00:08:24.680 --> 00:08:27.399 gave a green light to the press and others to 161 00:08:27.480 --> 00:08:30.480 go hard after her. Even the ones who were for her, 162 00:08:30.639 --> 00:08:32.799 deep down they were going to vote for They said, well, 163 00:08:32.919 --> 00:08:35.399 she could still win. She's ahead by twenty points. No, 164 00:08:35.600 --> 00:08:39.799 not necessarily, and opposing Thanksgiving and Halloween and Valentine's Day, 165 00:08:39.840 --> 00:08:42.000 and I think National Potato Week was out on there. 166 00:08:42.480 --> 00:08:46.360 I think so as No, all I know is Thanksgiving 167 00:08:46.440 --> 00:08:49.000 is my favorite holiday. You know, my mom makes a 168 00:08:49.080 --> 00:08:53.600 great Thanksgiving and it's a holiday dedicated to stuffing your 169 00:08:53.600 --> 00:08:56.039 face and watching football. What I mean, how could? It's 170 00:08:56.080 --> 00:08:58.519 the perfect holiday in my book? So, I mean it's 171 00:08:58.559 --> 00:09:01.080 sort of like being against my I'm America America and 172 00:09:01.120 --> 00:09:03.320 apple Pie, baseball and apple Pie. When you say that 173 00:09:03.399 --> 00:09:05.559 you have a problem, thanksg. I just some of these 174 00:09:05.600 --> 00:09:06.600 things got a little goofy. 175 00:09:07.000 --> 00:09:09.960 No, it is absolutely goofy. And yeah, I'm sure she 176 00:09:10.080 --> 00:09:13.360 regrets it. I bet if I went into your background 177 00:09:13.360 --> 00:09:16.000 when you were young, Jim, you did an outrageous things 178 00:09:16.120 --> 00:09:18.720 and what I hope you'll dedicate a show telling us 179 00:09:18.799 --> 00:09:20.440 what they are at some point. 180 00:09:20.440 --> 00:09:22.600 Please don't no, but it's true. 181 00:09:22.600 --> 00:09:24.799 And you know, an AOC said the other day woke 182 00:09:24.919 --> 00:09:27.639 one was crazy or something like that. So there's a 183 00:09:27.679 --> 00:09:30.279 little bit of recalibrating on the left that's going on 184 00:09:30.360 --> 00:09:32.320 right now in AOC who was very smart. 185 00:09:32.480 --> 00:09:34.000 It's good, yes, absolutely, but. 186 00:09:33.960 --> 00:09:35.960 Some of this, you know, is going to be tough 187 00:09:36.000 --> 00:09:39.440 to overcome, uh, you know, in the long run. But 188 00:09:39.519 --> 00:09:41.600 I think you're right that Democrats are being pragmatic in 189 00:09:41.639 --> 00:09:44.159 a lot of these races. And I do think the 190 00:09:44.200 --> 00:09:48.440 Senate is looking very interesting, Larry, because I mean, if 191 00:09:48.480 --> 00:09:50.080 you and I had a year ago had said, you know, 192 00:09:50.120 --> 00:09:52.000 I think Ohio might be in play. 193 00:09:52.440 --> 00:09:55.159 I think Iowa might be in play. I think Alaska 194 00:09:55.279 --> 00:09:56.039 might be in play. 195 00:09:56.320 --> 00:09:59.440 I think what might be in play. I think Kansas 196 00:09:59.519 --> 00:10:04.000 might be. We all get the same emails from people 197 00:10:04.080 --> 00:10:08.639 and tweets and so on. Now, look, a majority of 198 00:10:08.639 --> 00:10:11.799 the ones you just mentioned are not going to vote Democratic, 199 00:10:12.320 --> 00:10:15.879 but noos. But if you get a decent slice, you know, 200 00:10:16.000 --> 00:10:18.799 forty percent of them, that should be enough as long 201 00:10:18.840 --> 00:10:21.960 as they can hold Michigan and Maine. Who thought that 202 00:10:22.000 --> 00:10:25.080 would end up being the question at the beginning of 203 00:10:25.080 --> 00:10:29.279 this cycle. But you know, people do strange things in politics, 204 00:10:29.519 --> 00:10:32.240 and I think even with everything that's happened in Maine 205 00:10:32.279 --> 00:10:35.399 and Michigan, the Democrats still have a very decent chance 206 00:10:35.440 --> 00:10:38.399 of carrying one or both. So this could work out 207 00:10:38.480 --> 00:10:41.799 well for the Democrats. But they have to continue to 208 00:10:41.960 --> 00:10:44.399 work at it. They have to continue to do smart, 209 00:10:44.480 --> 00:10:48.519 pragmatic things, and Donald Trump and the Republicans have to 210 00:10:48.559 --> 00:10:52.720 continue to do really stupid things that upset people, that 211 00:10:52.879 --> 00:10:56.120 seem crazy and nutty. And you know what, I bet 212 00:10:56.159 --> 00:11:00.399 on that happening. That's what every day in the Trump 213 00:11:00.440 --> 00:11:03.679 era seems like a year. Yeah, not that, I mean, 214 00:11:03.679 --> 00:11:05.759 it's I can't get it all in my head, which 215 00:11:05.799 --> 00:11:08.879 is their theory of things. Just keep pumping out the 216 00:11:08.960 --> 00:11:13.919 horrible news day after day, ten times a day, ten corruptions, 217 00:11:14.200 --> 00:11:17.679 ten examples of greed a day, and then nobody can 218 00:11:17.720 --> 00:11:18.799 remember any of them. 219 00:11:19.000 --> 00:11:21.360 It's just a blur, that's right. 220 00:11:21.720 --> 00:11:24.200 No, I mean, it was a fire hose of lies 221 00:11:24.279 --> 00:11:26.320 during the first term. This term, I think it's the 222 00:11:26.320 --> 00:11:30.200 fire hose of corruption, and I think that the public 223 00:11:30.639 --> 00:11:33.279 is pretty nauseated by it. I think to some extent, yes, 224 00:11:33.320 --> 00:11:36.600 it is a blur. It's mind numbing for people. But Larry, 225 00:11:36.679 --> 00:11:38.679 I'm kind of wondering what you think, because I think 226 00:11:38.720 --> 00:11:41.159 the Democrats could run on corruption. I think they could 227 00:11:41.279 --> 00:11:45.080 run on Trump enriching himself off the presidency with crypto 228 00:11:45.120 --> 00:11:48.559 and everything else, and that these are salient issues. These 229 00:11:48.559 --> 00:11:51.559 are issues that people can understand. They can understand that 230 00:11:51.600 --> 00:11:53.879 they're paying a lot of money at the gas pump 231 00:11:54.120 --> 00:11:56.960 while he's, you know, laughing all the way to the bank. 232 00:11:57.399 --> 00:12:00.679 It's the perfect combination for Democrats, and I think they're 233 00:12:00.679 --> 00:12:02.480 going to use it because it doesn't make any sense 234 00:12:02.519 --> 00:12:06.519 not to use it. The combination is this is enriching 235 00:12:06.759 --> 00:12:11.200 this greedy, corrupt family and their friends at the very 236 00:12:11.279 --> 00:12:15.200 same time as Americans can't cough up the extra pennies. 237 00:12:15.200 --> 00:12:18.200 Oh that's right, they abolish the penny, extra nickels and 238 00:12:18.279 --> 00:12:21.440 dimes to pay for gas, to get the kind of 239 00:12:21.559 --> 00:12:25.279 bread they like. Really, the things people are going through 240 00:12:25.720 --> 00:12:30.559 and there's the conflict between these two images is so 241 00:12:30.960 --> 00:12:35.399 sharp and so nauseating. As you properly suggested that, I 242 00:12:35.440 --> 00:12:37.279 think it will have an impact. It ought to have 243 00:12:37.320 --> 00:12:40.200 a bigger impact than it is, but people are numb 244 00:12:40.279 --> 00:12:45.200 to it. God knows, if Nixon had had a tenth 245 00:12:45.240 --> 00:12:47.919 of this he would have been out. He still would 246 00:12:47.919 --> 00:12:50.320 have been out. It's what Nixon did was in a 247 00:12:50.360 --> 00:12:54.240 completely different realm, violating the law in people's civil liberties, 248 00:12:54.279 --> 00:12:57.519 which Trump is doing plenty of too. But the greed 249 00:12:57.600 --> 00:12:59.600 part of it, there was some of that with Nixon, 250 00:12:59.639 --> 00:13:02.080 with this, you know, the tax deduction for his vice 251 00:13:02.120 --> 00:13:05.440 presidential papers and that kind of thing. But Nixon really 252 00:13:05.679 --> 00:13:10.799 was almost not completely a choir boy compared to Donald Trump. 253 00:13:10.840 --> 00:13:15.320 There's no one ever who's been like him and his corrupt, 254 00:13:15.519 --> 00:13:16.799 greedy family. 255 00:13:17.399 --> 00:13:17.720 Yeah. 256 00:13:18.000 --> 00:13:20.360 No, I mean Nixon said, I'm not a crooked. Trump says, 257 00:13:20.559 --> 00:13:22.440 essentially he is a crook. But there's nothing you can 258 00:13:22.480 --> 00:13:22.919 do about it. 259 00:13:23.039 --> 00:13:25.120 Ye. That's right. You made your mistake and you're going 260 00:13:25.200 --> 00:13:25.799 to live with it. 261 00:13:26.120 --> 00:13:27.320 That's it exactly. 262 00:13:27.759 --> 00:13:30.919 And I do think the Iran war is deeply unpopular 263 00:13:31.480 --> 00:13:34.440 and he has apparently no ability to end this war. 264 00:13:34.519 --> 00:13:36.879 He thinks he can do it, you know, in a 265 00:13:37.200 --> 00:13:39.559 you know, by sending his son in law off to 266 00:13:39.600 --> 00:13:41.039 the Middle East. But his son in law goes off 267 00:13:41.080 --> 00:13:43.000 to the Middle East and then cuts his own side 268 00:13:43.039 --> 00:13:45.200 deals to try to buy an out Banian Island and 269 00:13:45.240 --> 00:13:47.360 all sorts of So, you know, good luck with that. 270 00:13:48.159 --> 00:13:51.799 And that shows to that seems to be a problem 271 00:13:51.879 --> 00:13:53.519 that can't be solved anytime soon. 272 00:13:54.200 --> 00:13:56.879 Well, it's not going to be solved at all unless 273 00:13:56.919 --> 00:13:59.720 Trump is out of office and there's an honest attorney 274 00:13:59.759 --> 00:14:06.159 general and honest prosecutors federal and others across the country, 275 00:14:06.320 --> 00:14:09.200 and that will only happen with the Democratic president. Then 276 00:14:09.240 --> 00:14:11.720 you can do some things, but you can't reel in 277 00:14:12.000 --> 00:14:15.759 most things. They're done unless you want to tear down 278 00:14:15.799 --> 00:14:18.320 and maybe we should. You know, the things that he's 279 00:14:18.360 --> 00:14:21.960 built around Washington, in a way, I'd like to see 280 00:14:21.960 --> 00:14:24.320 some of them stay up to remind people of the 281 00:14:24.360 --> 00:14:28.039 outrages of the Trump administration. You know, maybe have one 282 00:14:28.039 --> 00:14:32.519 of those those moving billboards that you take from monument 283 00:14:32.600 --> 00:14:37.600 to monument that he's named after himself through corruption, paid 284 00:14:37.600 --> 00:14:41.000 for them with the taxpayers money. People need to remember, 285 00:14:41.440 --> 00:14:43.039 I would like to say for all the time, but 286 00:14:43.120 --> 00:14:45.639 I know the public doesn't operate that way. Maybe a 287 00:14:45.720 --> 00:14:48.240 year or two. Is that possible for the public to 288 00:14:48.279 --> 00:14:49.519 remember something that long? 289 00:14:49.799 --> 00:14:52.919 I know, And you know, Trump has tried to do 290 00:14:52.960 --> 00:14:53.919 the reflecting pool. 291 00:14:54.159 --> 00:14:56.720 He has torn down part of the White House. 292 00:14:57.480 --> 00:15:00.360 One of the latest things is that the Kennedy Center 293 00:15:00.399 --> 00:15:03.039 board is now saying that, you know, he can inscribe 294 00:15:03.080 --> 00:15:06.039 his name into the Kennedy Center. That's something that the 295 00:15:06.080 --> 00:15:09.639 New York Times has reported. And this is after a 296 00:15:09.720 --> 00:15:12.120 judge told him to take his name off of the 297 00:15:12.159 --> 00:15:15.639 Kennedy Center and Larry, this is a this is a president, 298 00:15:15.679 --> 00:15:18.679 this administration that is out and out thumbing its nose 299 00:15:19.200 --> 00:15:23.960 at the courts, at the judicial branch of government. And 300 00:15:24.480 --> 00:15:27.279 going back to the Nixon comparison, you know, eventually Nixon 301 00:15:27.320 --> 00:15:29.799 gave up the tapes. Nixon listened to the courts. Nixon 302 00:15:29.799 --> 00:15:32.000 listened to Congress when his own party was coming over 303 00:15:32.000 --> 00:15:35.159 and telling him to resign. That's not that's not Donald Trump. 304 00:15:35.240 --> 00:15:37.039 He does not listen to the other branches of government, 305 00:15:37.080 --> 00:15:39.519 and he almost wants to be at war with the 306 00:15:39.519 --> 00:15:41.720 other branches of government. It seems maybe it's at the 307 00:15:41.720 --> 00:15:42.320 screen so we. 308 00:15:42.320 --> 00:15:45.399 Can blame them when it is appropriate to do so. 309 00:15:46.000 --> 00:15:49.919 But no, there's no comparison. Historically, you go through the presidents, 310 00:15:50.120 --> 00:15:54.879 they are examples of corruption. They're pennyanty compared to Trump's 311 00:15:55.320 --> 00:15:58.639 billions of dollars. Again, people are just so overwhelmed by 312 00:15:58.679 --> 00:16:02.279 the magnitude of it. They can't even focus on it 313 00:16:02.360 --> 00:16:06.720 day after day after day. And I wish people would obviously, 314 00:16:06.799 --> 00:16:10.320 then maybe it would hit home that they've done the 315 00:16:10.320 --> 00:16:13.039 wrong thing and that they better try and correct it 316 00:16:13.120 --> 00:16:15.879 a bit in twenty twenty six and then again in 317 00:16:15.879 --> 00:16:18.960 twenty twenty eight. But I see very little of that now. 318 00:16:19.000 --> 00:16:21.240 Some of that will change in the campaign when you have, 319 00:16:21.600 --> 00:16:25.200 you know, a million ads focusing on corruption, but there 320 00:16:25.240 --> 00:16:27.360 are so many other things, like the war in Iran, 321 00:16:27.440 --> 00:16:30.200 a complete waste of money, a complete waste of lives 322 00:16:30.720 --> 00:16:35.559 about nothing that had no real purpose. When you think 323 00:16:35.600 --> 00:16:37.639 about it, you get even madder than you do about 324 00:16:37.679 --> 00:16:40.480 the corruption, because at least that isn't about lives and 325 00:16:40.639 --> 00:16:44.279 so many other things you can't focus on it all. 326 00:16:44.720 --> 00:16:47.240 No, it's true, and the war with Iran is the 327 00:16:47.279 --> 00:16:50.440 reason why they had to do this elaborate switcheroo on 328 00:16:50.480 --> 00:16:54.360 Air Force one, you know, because they thought there was 329 00:16:54.360 --> 00:16:57.759 some security threat that the Israelis I guess had passed 330 00:16:57.799 --> 00:17:00.639 on to the US Intelligence Comunity and said there's thisecurity threat, 331 00:17:00.679 --> 00:17:03.039 and the Secret Service took it seriously enough where they said, Okay, 332 00:17:03.080 --> 00:17:05.039 we're going to do this thing where We're not only 333 00:17:05.079 --> 00:17:06.559 going to put you on the old Air Force one. 334 00:17:06.559 --> 00:17:08.519 We're going to find another plane to put you on, 335 00:17:08.680 --> 00:17:11.279 and then the Old Air Force one is going to 336 00:17:11.279 --> 00:17:13.559 be the decoy plane that the press and the staff 337 00:17:13.680 --> 00:17:16.880 are loaded onto. I mean, it's kind of an extraordinary, 338 00:17:17.839 --> 00:17:21.200 you know, statement and illustration as to how messed up 339 00:17:21.359 --> 00:17:23.920 the Iran war has gotten for him. It's because of 340 00:17:23.920 --> 00:17:25.599 that war that they had to go through all of 341 00:17:25.599 --> 00:17:28.279 that and have such an embarrassing fiasco on their hands. 342 00:17:28.880 --> 00:17:32.759 Every now and then something leaks out. Apparently he yelled 343 00:17:32.799 --> 00:17:36.160 and screamed a great link that hegseth for example, for 344 00:17:36.279 --> 00:17:38.880 the war in Iran. He's done the same thing to 345 00:17:38.960 --> 00:17:42.720 that Yahoo. I'm sure he's done it to others, and 346 00:17:43.160 --> 00:17:45.799 eventually we'll learn it, may be unfortunately in the post 347 00:17:45.799 --> 00:17:49.680 presidential books, not his book, but others will write about 348 00:17:49.680 --> 00:17:53.680 some of it. And he knows, at one level of 349 00:17:53.720 --> 00:17:58.440 his consciousness, he knows how screwed up things are and 350 00:17:58.480 --> 00:18:04.000 how his supposedly brilliant, best cabinet ever his advisors have 351 00:18:04.160 --> 00:18:07.720 sent him down these dead ends, and they're all going 352 00:18:07.759 --> 00:18:12.119 to be attributed to Trump. History doesn't really remember the 353 00:18:12.160 --> 00:18:16.240 cabinet members or the key advisors. You know, historians will remember, 354 00:18:16.359 --> 00:18:18.920 but not average people. No, it's going to be attributed 355 00:18:18.960 --> 00:18:24.079 to Donald Trump. And I am convinced, absolutely convinced, for 356 00:18:24.200 --> 00:18:28.160 as long as we have the kinds of historian polls 357 00:18:28.200 --> 00:18:31.720 that we have now, after each presidency, measuring that president 358 00:18:31.759 --> 00:18:34.519 against all the others, you're going to have Donald Trump 359 00:18:34.640 --> 00:18:38.680 in last place, not second to last, not third to last, 360 00:18:39.160 --> 00:18:41.920 last place for all time. 361 00:18:43.000 --> 00:18:43.359 Wow. 362 00:18:43.640 --> 00:18:46.200 And that gives what James Buchanan to break Who gets 363 00:18:46.200 --> 00:18:46.880 a breakout of that? 364 00:18:46.920 --> 00:18:47.519 I guess that's. 365 00:18:47.599 --> 00:18:52.440 Warren Harding, Warren Harding and Nixon. You know, Grant wasn't 366 00:18:52.440 --> 00:18:55.240 really corrupt himself, but he ran a corrupt administration. And 367 00:18:55.279 --> 00:18:59.720 there were stupid presidents like Franklin Pierce, but that's different. 368 00:19:00.799 --> 00:19:04.240 He inherited bad geenes you know, hard to hold that 369 00:19:04.319 --> 00:19:07.960 against somebody personally, But this isn't a class by itself. 370 00:19:08.440 --> 00:19:11.559 Yeah, And I guess that leads us to the other 371 00:19:11.640 --> 00:19:14.039 part of this, which is and I mentioned AOC earlier 372 00:19:14.799 --> 00:19:16.920 and it's way too early to talk about this stuff, 373 00:19:16.920 --> 00:19:18.720 but I'm sure you get this question all the time. 374 00:19:18.799 --> 00:19:20.400 I get this question all the time, So I ask 375 00:19:20.480 --> 00:19:23.920 the question to annoy you one more time. Who out 376 00:19:23.920 --> 00:19:26.680 there right now is looking like a promising Democratic candidate 377 00:19:26.920 --> 00:19:28.240 for twenty twenty eight do you think? 378 00:19:28.519 --> 00:19:32.799 Well, I've got an answer for you. Because the Crystal Ball, 379 00:19:32.920 --> 00:19:35.440 part of the UVA Center for Politics, for which you 380 00:19:35.559 --> 00:19:40.279 are a Center for Politics scholar, we found thirty eight 381 00:19:40.480 --> 00:19:45.160 people who are either running outright or very close to running, 382 00:19:45.640 --> 00:19:48.519 or they're dipping their toes into the water, or they're 383 00:19:48.519 --> 00:19:51.319 making statements that make us think they might be running. 384 00:19:51.519 --> 00:19:53.680 Thirty eight of them on the Democratic side. Now, look, 385 00:19:53.759 --> 00:19:56.200 most of them will run. They're going to confront the 386 00:19:56.200 --> 00:19:59.000 reality of the tens or hundreds of millions that you 387 00:19:59.079 --> 00:20:02.240 need to for the nomination. But you know we're going 388 00:20:02.319 --> 00:20:04.799 to have a good fifteen to twenty candidates, you know that. 389 00:20:05.000 --> 00:20:07.279 So anyway, I pick a different one each day. I 390 00:20:07.319 --> 00:20:10.599 want to give equal attention to each of the thirty eight. 391 00:20:11.000 --> 00:20:14.640 You need to call me thirty eight days in a row, Jim, 392 00:20:14.680 --> 00:20:19.079 because but mine today is John Ossoff. It's John Osoff 393 00:20:19.200 --> 00:20:21.759 because I sent out a little email to one of 394 00:20:21.759 --> 00:20:23.640 my classes and said, and who do you think of 395 00:20:23.680 --> 00:20:25.839 the ones you've seen so far you most impressed with 396 00:20:26.000 --> 00:20:29.119 to run for president? And as solid majority out of 397 00:20:29.119 --> 00:20:31.680 thirty eight candidate. It's a solid majority of the students, 398 00:20:31.680 --> 00:20:36.160 said John ossof young. He's young, they can identify with him. 399 00:20:36.279 --> 00:20:40.400 But he is very good. He's a terrific speaker. He's tough, 400 00:20:40.480 --> 00:20:43.119 and that's what Democrats want to see. None of this 401 00:20:43.319 --> 00:20:46.880