Speaker 1: It's funny thing. You know. You talk to your dear
friend brother Zach Abraham, You're shared with him some good news.
You know, Zach and I are going down to renew
healthcare in Mexico June seventh through the eleventh. And if
you're in the pipeline for treatment, man see if you
can move the treatment up and come and hang with us.
We already got a bunch of people for dinner to dinners,
so I decided to bring a family member with me
last minute, and I go and I booked the tickets
and it's a third of what I paid, and I
booked like three weeks ago, and I bought first class
because I'm a wimp and I'm spoiled and I can't
stand coach a third of what I paid. So I'm
thinking it's great news. So then I get Zach. We're
sitting there talking. I tell them about this, and he goes, oh, yeah,
there's a huge headwinds in the economy. There's that's that's
that's travels. Oh oh good. And I was feeling all good.
We'll talk with that about Zach about that and also
rich Dad, poor Dad says the end is here economically,
the end is here. What does Zach say. We'll talk
about this with the help of Visible that's gobisible dot
com and with God almighty.
Speaker 2: But Todd Herman show is one disapproved by big pharma
technocrats in tyrone s everywhere from the highd mountains of
Free America. Here's the Emerald City, Excie Todd Herman.
Speaker 1: Today is the day the Lord has made, and these
at the time so which God has decided we shall live.
My friend and brother, Zach Abraham, joins me, Chief Investment
Officer Bulwark Capital Management.
Speaker 2: Man.
Speaker 1: I cannot wait for our trip to Mexico. Super excited
to be down there with you and welcome back to
the show.
Speaker 3: Thank you, sir. And my golf clubs they're already getting excited. Well,
they can smell it. I you know, I'm convinced they
can smell it when they're going to be an eighty
to ninety degree heat by an ocean hitting golf balls.
So my back, my knee, and my golf clubs are
really pumped.
Speaker 4: To go down.
Speaker 1: I love it. Yeah, And it's going to be June
seventh through the eleventh. That's renewed healthcare. Probably if you're
not in the pipeline, for treatment. Maybe you could get in.
But if you're in the pipeline for treatment, you're going later.
Please come and join me and Zach and have some
fun with us. So let me just start with this.
I want to get to this Robert Kiyosaki thing because
I actually like him and his writing. I thought, Rich
Dad Port, that's a really good book, a lot of
just just you know, super classical wisdom. Here's how people
who view money as a tool live, Here's how people
who view money as sustenance live. Right, I think that's
why to put it. So let's start with this, though.
How big a deal is the downgrade? Moody downgrades US
credit rating from triple A to double A one and
they say it's the budgetary burden the government faces and
high interest rates. Wait, we have a budgetary burden?
Speaker 3: Yeah, nothing to write home.
Speaker 1: How big a deal is this? Does anyone in your
like circle of friends and people in high finance they
actually care about Moody?
Speaker 3: No, and and and so the the how big of
a deal it is? Look, I mean you don't want
to just you know, gloss over it. I mean the
reason that they're downgrading us and we should have been
downgraded I mean, it's still kind of funny if you
look at in comparison to other things, because you know,
everybody's a fiat currency, right, so we're going to downgrade
you because you're more fiat, you know, like you know, yeah,
so so there's a little bit of that.
Speaker 4: I mean, like you know, pen and paper.
Speaker 3: I understand why they did it, and I think it's
perfectly acceptable. But no, it's Look, there's serious things going
on and the Fed, you know, it's it's not unprecedented
for them to lose the back end of the curve,
right for high rates. If you see the stock market
getting hit today, that's what it's all about. The thirty
year treasury, I believe, is bad back above five uh,
and that's a real that is a real pain.
Speaker 4: Point for the economy. Yeah.
Speaker 3: And when Trump is talking about tax cuts and he's
talking about interest rate cuts, as long as he's talking
about those things, and this is not a knock against Trump,
I'm a Trump you know, I'm I support the president
and voted for him. But if he's talking about those
things in this environment, the back end of the curve
is going to keep going on. People are going to
keep selling long dated bonds.
Speaker 1: Okay. So if that's the case, then if president comes
going to keep talking about these things he's and I
don't think the president top stops talking about a thing.
I've never seen him stop talking about a thing. Right,
if you were to meet privately with him, and he
were to come to you and sit you down and say, Zach,
what are the things I should talk up versus stop
talking about? What would you say if he were sitting
there and you guys are having dinner, and he's in
a great mood and he's really seeking this from.
Speaker 5: You, What was you?
Speaker 4: Yeah? So I would say you need it.
Speaker 3: In my opinion, you need to be talking about fiscal restraint.
You need to put up some type something solid, something
of substance that shows that in earnest you are attempting
to hold down spending.
Speaker 4: Okay.
Speaker 3: The other thing, you can't keep talking up the stock market.
I don't think in the near term there is. I
think the path of least resistance economically and for his administration.
Speaker 4: Is to endure a short recession. Okay.
Speaker 3: And the reason why I say that is because you
need the back end of the curve down if you
want to lower the deficit. The quickest it will be
to get that long those long term rates down and
get them down fast. You're not going to get him
down by cutting. Go back and look last year what
happened to the long end after Powell cut it went up?
Why because it's seen as like less fiscal restraint, right
And why did that worm turn right now? I don't know,
but this is what we were talking about. When you
get into a place like this, you are relying on faith,
right like as an investor, and faith just turns all
of a sudden. You know, it's hard to predict, right
when it's just going to turn. Well, now it has,
and there are probably political reasons behind the scenes. I
wouldn't be surprised if certain countries were colluding behind the
scenes to make it as uncomfortable for Trump as possible. Sure,
I would actually be surprised if that wasn't the case.
But regardless of all of that, what can he do
put something forward? Like I said, that's substantive, It doesn't
need to be huge. Doesn't he be a drastic cut?
If he could hold spending flat your over year, that
would be an improvement, and he could start bipartisan entitlement
reform talks.
Speaker 4: He could do something.
Speaker 3: He could do things right, yep, But I don't think
you're going to do them unless you look he's got
in my opinion, looking at the setup right now, he's.
Speaker 4: Got one of two choices.
Speaker 3: Okay, he can look at inflation getting higher and interest
rates getting really uncomfortable more so than they are now,
or a short recession, hopefully short. It should be short too,
because US households are in good places financially. It wouldn't
be huge, it wouldn't be deep. There's not a tremendous
amount of leverage in the economy that you're really worried about.
It's not an seven eight setup, so it should be
fairly shallow. But he needs the recession to bring in,
and then once the back end of the curve starts
coming in and you see unemployment going up, then he
can cut rates. And I don't think at that point
the back end of the curve would revolt, right, It
would probably just go down further.
Speaker 1: Got it.
Speaker 4: So that's that's what I would tell him.
Speaker 1: That makes sense. I did something for you. You've done
so much for me, and this is a minor thing.
It did for you when you started taking mass times
you said you and your wife were having all of
a sudden you were sleeping better remember that?
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I take him every night now, right, yep.
Speaker 1: So I asked Wade a lightheart. He's one of the
founders and one of the CEO's kind of co CEO
situation at Boptimizers, and Wade sort of the research guy.
He really goes and he does this stuff in Bosnia.
They've got a research lab. They're really interesting. So he said, yeah,
the bloating is probably part of it. But I didn't
know this that if you go to bed with a
bunch of protein in your belly, and you know, I
eat three hundred and sixty grams of protein every day,
three hundred and sixty grams, I know, it's madness.
Speaker 4: We don't realize how much that is.
Speaker 1: That's so much stinking protein, and unlike a days like
today's a full rest day where I don't get to
work out a lot at all. It's gross. So I've
got a bunch of hacks for that we can talk about.
But so I asked Wade, and you already told me.
When you go to beds and sleep with a bunch
of undigested protein, your body creates these basically toxins, and
one of them actually gets in your mind. It's like
a neurotoxin. It makes your mind wander. So I don't
know about I call it busy brain. You're trying to
sleep and your mind's all over and you can't like
focus the yeah right, yeah, So he said that is
that's a known side effect of having this like this
undigested protein in your system. So last night I did it.
I take my mass sims throughout the day. I took
some extra last night because weirdly, I had a bunch
of protein before I slept. Dude, I was so out
like and it was a different form of sleep. The
busy brain was gone. So I'm I'm I actually thank
you for bringing up And that's what that's what Wade
says is happening.
Speaker 4: Guys.
Speaker 1: If you are not sleeping well and you want to
maintain the lean muscle you have and you want any
shot at all at putting on muscle, don't dig yourself
a hole steward the lean muscle you have. Get it
in the gym, and we could talk later about what
to do in the gym, but use this simple hackets
mass simes go to Boptimizers dot com slash Todd. Use
promo code Todd. You get temperasont off all their products,
including mass signs, and just go ahead and subscribe because
then you're gonna get exclusive discounts, exclusive gifts, and exclusive
information packs from Matt Wood. It's Boptimizers dot com slash
Todd promo code Tod. All right, I want to get
to a comparison between you and Bulwark in the world,
because it happens that I was getting a review, a
little mini review, because we've got our money with you,
most of the money. You wouldn't let us put all
your money with you because you said, what if you
have a bad year. I want to get into that,
but let me start here with Robert Kawasaki. You know
that guy rich Tadgan. Okay, so here's what he wrote.
And I didn't ask Alex earlier to have some You're
gonna be good here like the Walking Dead music. I
just don't think you have a chance to queue that up.
But let's put that in a post since you and
I recording. I shouldn't even have said that, but let's
just going to be in the background. Here's Kawasaki. The
end is here. What if you threw a party and
know it showed up. This is what happened yesterday. The
FED had an auction for US bonds and no one
showed up. So the FED quietly bought fifty billion of
its own fake money with fake money. The party is over.
Hyperinflation is here. Millions young and old to be wiped
out financially. Good news. Gold will go to twenty five thousand,
silver to seventy bitcoin to five hundred thousand to one million.
The big print, the title of Larry Leopard's latest book
is on. Please read it. The end I have been
warning about is here. May God have mercy on our souls.
So we got to sell, Zach, we gotta sell.
Speaker 4: I'm not sure sell. Yeah.
Speaker 3: So two things here, okay, and I and nothing. I
think that his book Rich Dad, Poor Dad, helped a
ton of people. I think it was a really smart
book and really a brilliant way to frame it up to.
I think he's done a lot of good for a
lot of people. Okay, that's that's point number one. Point
number two. I really don't know even where to start
about how wrong he is on everything. And for the record,
I know Larry Leppard, he and I follow each other
on Twitter. I don't know him personally, but like, I'm
not talking out of turn.
Speaker 4: I know these guys. Okay, everything he said is complete garbage,
all right, really just.
Speaker 3: Yes, So I'm gonna now. I don't think he's doing
it on purpose. But the biggest lesson I want people
to learn. And I'm not the only source of unvarnered
financial information. But this is why a spec you need
to be even more careful about financial news than you
are political news. And the reason why is because there
is a certain allure about talking about financial things, even
if you have no clue what you're talking about. And
typically the guys that are the most willing to talk
about financial things are the ones that don't know what
they're talking about, and if they express any level of certainty,
that is the proof that they don't know what they're
talking about. So, first of all, that that is not true.
We've had good bond auctions, We've had bad bond auctions.
The FED buying bonds had.
Speaker 4: Nothing to do with that. That.
Speaker 3: The FED was not net buying bonds. They were reloading
up bonds that had just expired.
Speaker 4: Okay, so they got.
Speaker 3: Their money back from the Treasury just like you do
when a bond expires, and they rolled it into new bonds,
so the percentage of bonds that they owned did not
go up. Okay, So to say the Fed bot not true,
it's just not true. Second of all, that purchase had
absolutely nothing to do with the bond auction, and you're
gonna see good bond auctions. As a matter of fact,
we had a bond auction a month ago that was
shockingly good. Okay, nothing, nothing has happened over the last
thirty days that have made people feel like we need
to pan excel. Third, inflation is going down and unless
the FED cuts, it's gonna continue to go down. Now
you're going to see it hop up momentarily on these tariffs.
But remember that's not that's that's that's inflation because the
cost of a good went up. But it's not inflation
because it's not going to continue to rise, right like
you know what I mean. That's the pernicious part of
inflation is that it typically gets away from you and
just keeps eroding and e roading and a roating.
Speaker 4: That's not what that's not what a tariff is.
Speaker 3: It's a one time deal, right unless we want to
keep upping the tariff by two percent a month, which
you know that's at this point right now, that's not
what we're looking at. But this is just a classic example.
And I look, I believe that he believes what he's saying. Right,
Just the end is here again, where's everybody going, buddy?
Speaker 1: Like the literal end that we're going to be transported up?
The Lord Jesus is coming for the church. He knows
he's the one who knows the end. I think he
means something else.
Speaker 4: Oh, he for sure.
Speaker 3: I mean he's talking financial, right, But my whole point
is if the end is near and hyperinflation is here,
that means that everybody's getting rid of the dollar. Where
are they going bitcoin? Come on, no, they're not Like
that's a ridiculous assertion. Would hyperinflation drive a bit coin? Sure,
we've already seen that. But that's what I'm saying is,
if you're talking about the collapse of the world reserve currency,
there has to be something else to take its place. Bitcoin.
Isn't that it's a deflationary asset. Gold isn't that there's
not enough of it? I mean, gold will probably continue
to go up because of all the debts and printing
and all that kind of stuff, But you still need
a currency. You can't know, we're not gonna walk around
carve enough chunks off our gold bricks to pay each other, right.
Speaker 4: Like, I mean, anyway, this is do we need to do?
Speaker 3: Yes, it's no news. We need to deal with our
fiscal house. But to sit there and argue that the
dollar's about ready to plummet, nat, I just it's not
gonna happen.
Speaker 4: And he's just he'ps talking out of turn.
Speaker 1: Okay, good enough. And then I want to get into
something that I think is unique about you because I've
known you long time now and I see something in
you during times like this, and I can observe it
because we're friends. I don't know if people who don't
get to spend as much time around you don't. It
has to do with the economy and bulwark. So bring
this up in just a second. This is a time
of the golden age. What Trusident Trump is trying to
create is an economic golden edge. And Zach is talking
about his attempts to do this and this minor recession,
we hope this quick recession minor and quick. We hope
my friend Tim kruk Shank wanted to honor President Trump's
decision to try to get us back to a golden age,
so he created a bag of coffee. The whole thing
is gold. It's a proud American eagle once again spreading
its wings over America. Tim is super high in this
bag and the coffee within it. Of course, the bag
says God Country Team on it. So make this your
entree into bone Frog. If you've never tried the coffee,
make this your entree as a way to recognize what
the President's trying to do. And of course to try
this coffee created by a forming Navy seal who all
he did for you. I mean it's not like him
did much for you. He just went to war three times.
But I mean, you know, it's just war, just the
Navy seal.
Speaker 4: It's not like that.
Speaker 1: So or you could just say no, I just buy
coffee from commun It's good to Bonefrog Coffee dot com
slash Todd. Use promo code todd to get ten percent
off your first purchase and then plan to go back
very quickly and subscribe to the coffee. Bonefrog Coffee dot
com slash Todd promo code Todd. Here's something I noticed
about you, zach and this is anyone call you Zachary.
Is your full name, Zachary.
Speaker 4: It's not good. The only time my wife.
Speaker 3: Called Zachary is yeah, usually when she's exasperated with me
or angry with you.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's that's the only time I get called Jachary.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: My wife is a lot of patience with me and
is as over the years become a very good communicator
with me, and and praise God. And but there is
a when she emphasizes the duh Todd.
Speaker 4: Yeah, oh yeah.
Speaker 1: You know right right, you know right, there's there's the
way to say hey, Todd, and then there's the Todd.
And that's at that point. Now, Okay, I got it.
I noticed something about you. The whackier, the more volatile, uh,
the more up and down, the more craziness. Like you know,
Kwisake's saying the end is near. President Trump is saying
the greatest economy we've ever seen is here. You've got
the Federal Reserve saying conjuring money. We don't do that.
This is so the more things seem volatile to me,
the more I see you in a good mood. And
there's something about the way you run your fund that
this seems like this is Bulwark's time, right, and this
is when you shine? So why and is that true?
Speaker 4: Yeah? Yeah, I mean so.
Speaker 3: We have always had our biggest outperformance in the craziest markets.
And I think that the reason why is because most
of the time investing is a fairly mundane practice, you
know what I mean, You're just you're you're looking at
and you have these skills and you're looking at the
world and you're doing all these things, and most of
the time a lot of those skills aren't needed that much, right,
Like you know, you know, when you're just looking at
the S and P going up fifteen to seventeen percent
every single year, maybe it beat it by a couple
percent here and there or whatever, but that's that's not
really where the big swings happen and the and the
big gains happen. You know, the most beautiful thing or
the opportunities to make ridiculously big amounts of money and
relatively short times, and that always comes in tumultuous times, right.
And the other reason why we're so excited about it
now is that I very much believe that you have
international regime shift going on in markets across the world.
Speaker 1: And geam shift in markets.
Speaker 3: Yeah, just so for remember we were saying how the
US stock market has become seventy percent of all stock
market globalization in the world.
Speaker 4: Capital capitalization in the world.
Speaker 3: Right, so we make up twenty percent economicivity, but our stock.
Speaker 4: Market is seventy percent of the global value. That is
by far and away a record for us. That is
by far and away a record for anybody.
Speaker 3: For those of you out there that remember the dominance
of Japanese markets in the eighties and how everybody couldn't
get their money into Japan fast enough and Japanese stocks
couldn't quit going up.
Speaker 4: At the peak in.
Speaker 3: Eighty nine, their stock market made up thirty nine percent
of stock market capitalization around the world. Today we're at
seventy Just shy asa, okay. So what that tells you this,
One of the reasons we're so excited is we believe
a regime shift is coming, and the opportunity is because
everybody was on one side of the ship. The same
thing that is the thing that looks very scary to us,
is the same thing that is creating unbelievable value opportunities
in places around the world, and look, some are sketchy,
some aren't. Right, there's there's some very great attractive locales
around the world for investor money, and there's no money
in those markets. And so we're up, you know, nine
or ten percent so far this year. And it hasn't
been by any clever trades or big shorts or we've
had a couple of small good short bets this year too,
but it's just been because we own a bunch of
really cheap companies that are doing well. And so what
that's telling me is that the market is starting to
pay attention to fundamentals again. Now that gets me excited.
When you got a mark, yeah, when you got a
market where Carvana and Tesla are going up ten percent
a day and all that kind.
Speaker 1: Of stuffy car so much it's so bad.
Speaker 3: Well they so they just had their guess, so everybody's
all excited about Carvana. Guess what insiders did, sold another
one point seven billion dollars worth of stock one point
seven billion, So you know how you know management's really
pumped about the future of a company. They're selling them
as fast as they can when they've dumped about se
seventy five percent of their equity exposure in that company.
Speaker 4: That means you should go in there and buy it. Right.
Speaker 3: So in environments like that where nobody cares and people
are just betting on stocks, I think the more experienced
you are, the more disadvantaged you are. Yeah, but when
you start getting into you know, a giant regime shift
and now fundamentals and cash flows matter. Yeah, I think
in that arena, we've got a huge advantage. And I'm
licking my chops.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, And I want to provide now a countervailing
example to what you're doing. You're talking about shorts and
not doing a lot of those and good fundamentals. I
want to go through a couple of unusual whale deals
and I want you to help us understand these, at
least one of them. And then I want to talk
about US household income and President Trump and the tax
will try to get to that, but I want you
to decode this this series of puts and explain that
to people who don't know what puts are, just comes
from unusual whales. We'll get to that in just a second.
Just reminder that's in June, that's coming up around the corner.
Zach and I get to be in Port of Art
to Mexico June seventh through the eleventh, and Zach is
getting treatment this time. I'm not is not much I need.
I got my back done, My back feels fantastic, got
my first cleaning jerks in. I'm gonna I did my
first overhead work. My back feels so much better. And
I'm not even to the tissue building stage. I'm just
exiting the the inflammation reduction stage from renew when I
went down there a few weeks ago. I guess it's
not like a month ago. So Zach and are going
to be down there, and you invited to join us
if you're in the treatment pipeline, meaning you are lined
up to get stem cells. Now see if you can
bump that up and go have dinner with me and Zach.
I'm buying the first night, Zach's buying the second night.
There's already people down there for that. But let me
say this about the treatment as well. I got my
tickets for a family member yesterday, first class West Coast
to Portavarta six hundred bucks. Insane stink in first class
for a coach price. So if you've been delaying this
because of travel. Go look at that and understand it's
not just stem cells. They've got a world class device
down there to check your heart. It's happened three times
that someone went down and one case, the lady was
in there for treatment, her husband was They checked her
heart because she was having trouble sleeping and feeling short
of breath. She had to have open heart surgery the
next day and her cardiologists and others had said, you're fine,
You're absolutely fine. So there's that service as well, and
then we just have fun down there. It's renew EU
E dot Healthcare. If you've got something urgent like arthritis,
it's killing you, no one's able to help you. You
might see if you can get in the treatment pipeline,
but you would have to go and get your MRI today,
like really quickly. So again it's renew rn U DOOT Healthcare.
All their stem cells come only from a bilical cord.
It's great, great company, right, Zach. And so I should
let you say something about that. I'm jazz. I know
you said your golf clubs could smell it. Now are
you gonna be okay in the hyperbaric oxygen chamber? Because
a friend of mine's going down, and she's kind of said,
she's not gonna go in the chamber. We're gonna see
if we can, you know, talk her into it. But
you're gonna be okay in that thing, right.
Speaker 4: I'd sleep in that second with Loton.
Speaker 3: Those things are so good for you, man, that oxygen, Like,
I want to get one for my house. I honestly
I should get one for my house.
Speaker 1: I'm so good for you. I don't want to talk
out of school, so I won't say which professional golfer
I've met down there, because I almost will guarantee you
because you're a golf fan. I'll'll almost guarantee you you're
gonna be walking the hallways. You're gonna be like, oh
my gosh, like you're gonna be. There's always professional golfer
in there. I know one of them who has one
of those in his house. He also had and he
slept in it for six months, like every night for
six months because he was so so injured and he
got used to it. I'll tell you offline who it is.
But yeah, really fascinating. So let me run this by you.
Unusual whales. Help us help this is the thing. Explain
it to us like we're kindergarteners. This is what unusual
whales rights. I mean, it's easy to see the big picture,
but explain the details, like we're kindergarteners. This is truly egregious.
On May thirteenth, and you can see this on the screen,
someone put twenty five million UM in premium ten thousand
times volume in United Healthcare, three hundred dollars puts expiring
nine to nineteen, twenty twenty five. Then news of the
DOJ investigating for fraud came out. United Healthcare dropped and
is down fifty percent in the last month. This trader
is up eighty million dollars unusual. So the puts are
basically he was betting that the stock would go down
in that period of time. Is that right?
Speaker 3: Or that investor was, yeah, the weird So there's two things.
Actually to be fair to that trader, it's not the thing.
It doesn't reek as bad as some of the trades
I've seen, And the reason for it is.
Speaker 4: The duration or what we call the theta or the
time left on the putskay, meaning.
Speaker 3: If like so if if you and I if we
knew about that announcement and we knew that that announcement
was coming out in the next two weeks.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Okay.
Speaker 3: What we would want to do is we would want
to be probably by puts that expire in three weeks.
We want as little time value on that option, because
the closer you are to expiration on the option, the
cheaper the option becomes, right because there's less time left
on it. So that the time on that option doesn't
look suspicious.
Speaker 4: What does look suspicious is the.
Speaker 1: Size ten times volume.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that that's big.
Speaker 3: Now what may there may be the timing of that
reeks Okay, so that that that that reeks.
Speaker 4: It could have been somebody hedging along position.
Speaker 1: So they have a position to your healthcare where they're long,
so they take a portion of time and they're short.
Speaker 3: Well they'll hedge it, okay, right, So like we'll do that,
so we'll have I'll give you a practical example.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 3: Up here in Washington, we've got a lot of clients
that we've worked for tech companies and they've acquired big
chunks of stock. Right, well, when they retire, that stock
is awesome, and there are a lot of great companies,
but that stock might make up you know, thirty forty
fifty percent of their total retirement package. Right, So what
we need to do is we need to diversify that,
but we need to do it over time because they're
sitting on big cap gains and things like that.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 3: Well, what we'll do typically and not all the time,
it depends client to client, is we'll purchase put options
on that underlying stock. And we can do it usually
for about free without any money out of the client's
pocket because we'll sell call options against the position, take
that premium and buy put options. And now if that
into visual stock is to get hit, the put options
are going up almost the same amount.
Speaker 4: So it's like it's like free insurance.
Speaker 3: Okay, So guys will do that to hedge a long
position on their books.
Speaker 4: But like I said, the timing of that reeks.
Speaker 3: The other thing to consider, the one other way it
could be a legitimate trade is sometimes these things leak
and it's not like a purpose, you know, like stuff
like everybody at all these banks and everything, they all
know each other.
Speaker 4: We've trade together, you know, you all know each other.
Speaker 3: And so somebody could have had a long position on
and a rumor was going around that there could be
bad news on United Health and they could do it,
or considering the timing and the size in terms of
the volume, I would bet that it was somebody that
was either connected, had knowledge, was acting with insider trading information,
and bought dated them out to September to make them
look less on.
Speaker 1: That's what I was going to say. I guess I
could actually see it being someone in the United Healthcare
and having the buy done by someone else where they're
masks totally right.
Speaker 4: Could could absolutely be the case.
Speaker 3: And like I said, it's the timing of it and
then also the size. Okay, right, because you got to remember,
options aren't like stocks. Right, If I go buy twenty
five million worth of stock, regardless of what happens to
that company, the vast majority of that value is probably
still going to be there six months later.
Speaker 4: Okay. With options, it's not right.
Speaker 3: So if that doesn't happen, if that option doesn't go good,
that twenty five million is gone.
Speaker 4: That's what he paid. He put in twenty five million,
got it? Okay?
Speaker 1: So I want to get to one of the things.
It's about housing, and it's something I think that that
affects a lot of people because to me, again it's
a comparison this. This investor makes eighty million bucks on
this trade, and I want to compare this to where
Americans are out in terms of housing. I will say
this real quick about Zach. He is a man of
his word. He said he's going to come to renew
with me in Mexico. Boom, He's coming to renew. He
learned about bone frog. He's like, you know what, that's
gonna be our coffee. Boom, it's his coffee in his office.
He heard me describe mass simons are going to take
mass times. He did years and years and years ago
when he first learned about the mission of Alan Soaps. Zach,
I remember we were talking. He wrote it down and
I even remember you handed it to someone. And now
Alan Soaps is the soap throughout the Bower Capital Management's
offices all around the country. And you've got that statue
of Allen in Dubai. I think that's so good. It's
made out of soap. Yeah, sorry, I'm sorry, Rihod I apologize,
and so Zach made that decision. So let me talk
to business owners. You're probably not gonna be, you know,
putting hand soap in your business, but let me just
say this, you can put the liquid soap. It's Ian's blend.
It's it's still made by the same family. If there's
three generations soap biking expertise, it's still all natural, it's
still gentle. It still supports the mission of hiring and
retaining people like Alan, who's effectively nonverbal through because of
autism and as these structural health challenges. His brother Ian,
named after this soap, is also challenged by autism. Amy
got autism late in life. That's a great soap to
have in your business because it's a conversation starter. What
is this Allen's artesian soap? Why do you have this?
And one another thing. If you're in a hospitality business
or customer service business, like being a realator, you have
people who buy a house get some of these gift
baskets because they're beautiful, they're well done. And someone purchases
a house, now you're giving them some soap that values
life that they're going to use, maybe something they can
put out. All that's available Alan soaps. It's not just
bars of soap, it's not just subscription soap. And in fact,
there are DIY gift kits you could put together on
your own and source for things like that. So it's
alansaps dot com, slash todd and use promo code Todd
for a ten percent off. So from an eighty million
dollar nice day, someone day again from unusual Wales, US
household now needs one hundred and fourteen thousand annually to
afford a median price home. That's up seventy point one
percent from sixty seven thousand just six years ago, per
re liture dot com. And here's what Rob McNeely wrote
on Twitter. Politicians devalued through devalued, this through printing money,
housing a perfect storm of supplying demand driven by demographic changes.
Do respond to that at all? And because that seems
like a huge, huge jump to me? And I know this.
I've got I've got a daughter in her early twenties
and she's looking at things going, look, I don't know
that I'll ever own a house. I mean, is that
the routy?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 4: I mean what.
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 3: I Eventually the right things will get done and the
right decisions will get made, and well we'll get we'll get.
Speaker 4: It under control.
Speaker 3: But but look, you know, for years and years and years,
and I'm remember you know, you and I have had
these conversations dating wayback, but felt like kind of like
a crazy man on the edge of the cliffs, screaming
into the abyss, you know what I mean. But when
we were watching the Federal Reserve balance sheet climb by
trillions of dollars over the years with quantitative easying and
zero interest rate policy and all that kind of stuff,
you know, And it's not just me at all, but
a lot of people in the financial industry were sitting
there going, hey, guys, fun for now, but the bill's
gonna come do.
Speaker 4: Oh, what are you talking about.
Speaker 3: There's no inflation. I'm like, yeah, keep printing money, right,
keep juicing things.
Speaker 4: Keep loading. Everybody think about this.
Speaker 3: There's another reason that nobody really thought about. One of
the biggest levers that usually gets us out of recession
is a refinance boom. Right when you look at the
last forty years, what happened every time we go to recess.
Interest rates would drop yep, right, Unemployment will go up, right,
and people had less money to spend, so then they'd
refinance their house at a lower rate, their payment would
go down, They pull out some cap, pay off some
credit cards, and they made it through.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 3: Well, when you go do the numbers, and you look
at the average mortgage rate in.
Speaker 4: The US, it's like three to five. Okay, today there
is seven.
Speaker 3: So if you have a nasty recession and interest rates
on mortgages fall the four five, eighty five percent of
the people in the country aren't going to rEFInd.
Speaker 4: There's no relief. Right.
Speaker 3: So what we were saying is, hey, this is the
classic this is the classic example. Everything the FED did
since eight o nine, it was the classics example of
eating the seed corn.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 3: We were eating what we were going to need in
the future. And now when you look at the rate situation,
and we knew eventually you'd get here too, didn't know
what the levers would be, but it was only a
matter of time. And eventually you get to a place
where people do want to quit buying your long dated
bonds and your rates go up and they're not as
easy to pull back. You've got to make some tough decisions.
Do you want to deal with higher than trend inflation
going forward for a substantial amount of time and inflate
the problem away effectively, or do you want to you know,
the quicker but less painful and popular pill, which is
seldom chosen, is make some hard choices and cut spending, right.
Speaker 1: But hard choices. Yeah, that's basically racism.
Speaker 3: I'm sure, yeah, by yeah, just nowadays it's sure right, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1: Yeah, what isn't President Trump was speaking about something that's
going to affect everybody who lives to see retirement, and
it's this, this tax and social Security. And there are
Republicans who want to continue to tax social Security. This
is President Trump talking about what he likes to call
his big, beautiful bill.
Speaker 5: These will be the biggest tax cuts in American history.
With one expensing, which is something that people cannot believe
they getting. We did it, and the last one, and
we had the most successful economy in my first four
years that we've ever had the history of our country,
and expensing was one of the things that led to that.
But it's one hundred percent expensing for companies investing in
America and increasing take home pay for the typical family
by thousands of dollars a year. And to show you
how middle income this is, there'll be no tax on tips,
no tax on overtime, no tax for the great seniors.
In social securities. You have no tax on Social Security
for our great seniors. And we have full deduction for interest.
If you buy a car that's made in America, you
get an interest rate deduction. That's going to be a
big got to be made in America. If it's not
made in America, we really don't care if you buy
it or not. But if it's made in America, we
want you to buy it. We make the best cars anyway.
Speaker 1: Now, I do say this to the President that he
made clear that this is a tax trip for the
great seniors, and they had the scumbag seniors. I liked it.
He's made the delineation. So the scumbag seniors are the
neutral seniors. They don't get that, but the great seniors do.
Just going through that package, I mean, I think you
and I can both agree the tax on Social Security
is obscene in a crime because it was money taken
by force. How do you see the rest of that package.
I mean the no tax on tips. That thing passed.
It's bipartisan out of the Senate. It's like one hundred
percent of senator's vote for that. So the respecting populism,
the tax write off, and then the thing that I
think people will need unpacked is what's this one hundred
percent right off thing? That prison talked about.
Speaker 3: What he said expensing one hundred percent. What I'm assuming
he's talking about is I believe I saw a line
item in the in the bill that said new manufacturing here,
they don't pay taxes, so basically they'll be able to
expense it.
Speaker 4: Okay, Yeah, so the way I read it now, I
have not dug through it. I just saw a bullet
right right right.
Speaker 3: Person that put the bullet point could be off, but yeah,
just expensing one hundred percent of their costs, and I
believe not paying income taxes for a certain amount of years.
Speaker 1: I'm in the building that factory. Well, I'm gonna make podcasts.
Speaker 4: Again, I don't know that.
Speaker 3: I don't know that that's the case, but I'm assuming
that's what he's talking about, because everybody gets one hundred
percent deduction on expenses anyway, So I don't, I don't.
Speaker 4: I don't know what else he would mean by that.
Speaker 1: And then the taking the interest rates of or the
writing off the interest in a car's personal scenario, that's
a smart move. That's the incentive.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: The other thing I like about those things, what I
would like to see them is have spending cuts that
go along with them and make those things revenue neutral spending.
Speaker 4: But I think, yeah, right right, yeah, it's I'm one
of those Yeah, I'm one of those guys, one of
those crazy guys.
Speaker 3: But you know, I y, I would like to see
a revenue neutral when you're running a deficit of seven
percent of GDP. Now, I think that those I think
that the tax cuts that he's talking about there, I
think that those almost. I think those the kind of
tax cuts that should be done regardless of where you're at,
because there's a fairness issue, right, yeah, you know, I
think that's.
Speaker 4: Yeah. The idea that we tax those security to me
is just crazy.
Speaker 1: Right, we sold the money from you, we put it
in something that gets you a one percent return. You
could have gotten seven and a half over But anyway,
we're going to tax you on this last thing. This
comes from First Squawk on Twitter. Trump considers opening retirement
plans to private equity. Q E Infinity replies bad idea.
Private equity needs liquid and needs exit liquidity. Looks like
the fur one k users will be the sheep. I mean, okay,
so you're nodding. Absolutely stupid idea.
Speaker 4: A horrible idea.
Speaker 3: These private equity firms have not been adjusting their marks
on their books.
Speaker 4: Remember they're not like.
Speaker 3: This stuff isn't free trading on a market somewhere, so effectively,
now there are some guidelines, but effectively, you could be
looking at a company that you own on a private
equity basis that's down sixty percent and you don't you
don't have to mark it down, right because there's not
a transaction, so you can hold it at that last
transactional price.
Speaker 4: So and and there is never I mean, private equity
got flooded, flooded, And I know guys in the space.
Speaker 3: I know managers that run funds, and I will tell
you there are zombies on these guys's books.
Speaker 4: They desperately.
Speaker 3: Why do you think blackrocks spun out private equity etf right,
it's exit liquidity. Those guys are one hundred percent right
that wrote that tweet. The last thing on earth you
want to do is give people access to that toxic
sludge in their four oh one case. I understand why
he's saying that, and generally speaking, I would be for
that because I think the choices inside of four to
one k's are far too restrictive. But I would be
pulling him aside and go Donald, I understand why you
support that. Don't do it bad idea? Not now wait
till private equity blows up.
Speaker 1: Well, it's always good de. Why's council day with you?
A couple of weeks until we're in Mexico together. I'm hey,
I figured out I do want to hit the golf
course with you and some of the guys down there.
So I want you to know I'm putting some effort
into this and I'm playing some what's.
Speaker 4: It called.
Speaker 1: It's the name of the course is Oh, it's Captain
Kidd's Pirate Course.
Speaker 4: Fam. Yeah, you're gonna be dialed.
Speaker 1: Okay, good, good.
Speaker 3: You're gonna have a sharp score, my friend, when you're
down there, I expect to see some good scores at me.
Speaker 1: I love it. I'm going to be across that waterfall too,
watch it right through that mouse's hold a mouth. This
is Todd Herman Show. Please go be well, be strong,
be kind, Please make every effort to walk in the
light of Christ.