Speaker 1: Fifty five kcit talk station. You know, it's that time,
Speaker 1: the illiterative segment of the fifty five Carscity Morning Show.
Speaker 1: It's called the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. You can find
Speaker 1: the retired lieutenant colonel out there on the web. Just
Speaker 1: search for Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Get his thoughtful analysis
Speaker 1: on a lot of things military related. Of course, today
Speaker 1: we're gonna talking about the latest on the Jimas Israel
Speaker 1: situation as well as Ukraine. Daniel Davis, always a pleasure
Speaker 1: to have you on my program sir, Always a pleasure
Speaker 1: to be here. Brian, how are you. I'm doing fine.
Speaker 1: I'm just joking earlier every day people always ask, hey
Speaker 1: you doing, Brian is like, you know, half of me
Speaker 1: wants to say I'm great, you know, personally, Then the
Speaker 1: other half of me looks out in the world and goes, jeez, Louise,
Speaker 1: I feel miserable. But it's usually about stuff I have nover,
Speaker 1: no control over, like the situation unfolding in the Middle East.
Speaker 2: I'm right there with you, you know, you get it.
Speaker 2: I mean, you want to be able to changise the world.
Speaker 1: You wake up feeling like you got this weight on
Speaker 1: your shoulders and come on, man, it's a weight that
Speaker 1: well maybe shouldn't be there, but you know, you have
Speaker 1: knowledge and skill sets in certain areas that force you
Speaker 1: into having to deal with the cold, painful realities of
Speaker 1: the world. And that's what we're doing here this morning.
Speaker 1: Let's start with Hamas and israel I. See behind that
Speaker 1: reality of their fighting back and forth, Iran is also
Speaker 1: still threatening of some sort of what they call inevitable response.
Speaker 1: After they took out the Hamas leader Ismail Hanie back
Speaker 1: in July. They described this the Iranian Revolutionary Guard leaders said,
Speaker 1: this is going to be a painful and different attack
Speaker 1: than what you expect Israel, So they keep talking about
Speaker 1: a response. It didn't come as quickly as most people thought.
Speaker 1: But behind the Hamas and the hu Thi's you have Iran.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and look, I think that it's it is definitely
Speaker 3: inevitable because you just can't strike it Iran in their
Speaker 3: capital city on their inauguration weekend and think that not
Speaker 3: you know, something isn't going to be done in retaliation.
Speaker 3: The question is just going to be what, because as
Speaker 3: they're pointing out, or as you pointed out, rather you know,
Speaker 3: this wasn't the immediate retaliation reaction that many expected. They
Speaker 3: thought that it would come within days, and then they said, well,
Speaker 3: maybe it'll be after this forty day morning period. I
Speaker 3: think that's even expired because that was the time frame
Speaker 3: for the Hazbulah attack against Israel a week or so ago,
Speaker 3: came after the fortieth day of morning, after one of
Speaker 3: the commanders was assassinated by Israel.
Speaker 2: So we don't know what it's going to be.
Speaker 3: But it's interesting that the phrasing us that it's going
Speaker 3: to be painful, but different than what you expect, which
Speaker 3: means it's probably not going to be another three hundred
Speaker 3: and fifty missile barrage like the one that came the
Speaker 3: first time after Israel destroyed the embassy compound in the
Speaker 3: Iranian embassy compound in Syria.
Speaker 2: So it's unclear.
Speaker 3: It could be something like assassination of a high value
Speaker 3: Israeli target. It could be attacking an Israeli embassy in
Speaker 3: some other countries, something that's not as defended. There's just
Speaker 3: a whole range of things that it could be. But
Speaker 3: the real the question's going to be then what happens,
Speaker 3: because there's in my view, no chance that Israel says,
Speaker 3: all right, well, that's fair, we did this. You did
Speaker 3: that tip for tat Whi's call it a day first.
Speaker 3: I think it's certain that they would then, you know,
Speaker 3: go one more wrung up that escalation, and then we'll.
Speaker 1: See what happens. Yeah, they'll use it as a pretext.
Speaker 1: And that's exactly where I was going with you, because
Speaker 1: if they get a strong response from Iran an assassination,
Speaker 1: maybe a huge attack, whatever the response is, they're going
Speaker 1: to use that as a pretext. And I bet they're
Speaker 1: going to go in as hard as they possibly can
Speaker 1: with some of those bunker buster type munitions and try
Speaker 1: to eliminate the Iranian nuclear weapons sites that we all
Speaker 1: know where they exist, least intelligence sources I think have
Speaker 1: a firm idea where they're making these things.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, we do.
Speaker 3: But it's also the nuclear program, as distinct from a
Speaker 3: nuclear weapons program, is spread all over the place and
Speaker 3: in multiple places, and quite a few of them are
Speaker 3: like in the sides of mountains, et cetera. And it's
Speaker 3: not clear that even the best bunker busters are going
Speaker 3: to be able to take all that out. And look,
Speaker 3: if Israel does that, I mean, that's that's as much
Speaker 3: a declaration of war as you can get. Yeah, and
Speaker 3: you know, and now then you've got the possibility of
Speaker 3: exploding this, you know, nearly a year long attack in Israel,
Speaker 3: you know, with guys of war et cetera, now exploding
Speaker 3: beyond the borders. And then then all the gloves may
Speaker 3: come off, with all of these run backed militia groups
Speaker 3: spattered throughout the region, both the Rack, Syria, Jordan, et cetera.
Speaker 3: Hezbola then could take its gloves off. And so far
Speaker 3: it's it's held its powder. As you know, they've got
Speaker 3: reportedly over one hundred and fifty thousand rockets of various tops,
Speaker 3: which they've only used a small portion of so far.
Speaker 2: So Israel has to be very careful.
Speaker 3: They can't just go all in and say, ah, we
Speaker 3: got this opportunity, now we're going to go strack, because
Speaker 3: it's not clear that the United States is going to
Speaker 3: just say, yeah, we'll just go to war with you,
Speaker 3: even though some of our words have said that it's
Speaker 3: a different thing to literally plunge yourself into a war
Speaker 3: with Iran, given how bad and how long the one
Speaker 3: with Iraq took.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I suppose the Israeli forces are at some
Speaker 1: point going to become strained, much in the way the
Speaker 1: Ukrainian forces are strained. You know, they got the Houthis,
Speaker 1: they got Hamas. They're surrounded by enemies that are under
Speaker 1: constant attack and waging a war against a powerful country
Speaker 1: like Iran, even though comparatively speaking not as powerful as Israel,
Speaker 1: but they have a standing military. They have access to
Speaker 1: weapons from other foes of Israel, including the Russians and
Speaker 1: the Chinese, so their supply chain isn't going to break down.
Speaker 3: And listen, it's also it's not even a matter of
Speaker 3: the comparative strength between Israel and Iran, and Israel's way
Speaker 3: on the upper side of that, but you know it's
Speaker 3: geographically it's there's this massive distance between them. This is
Speaker 3: not lack of Russia Ukraine where you can just pop
Speaker 3: across the border one way or the other.
Speaker 2: I mean this, and you have to cross countries to
Speaker 2: get there. And what are you going to do.
Speaker 3: You can't like motor across Iraq right to get into
Speaker 3: it too there. Yeah, and even flying across is very
Speaker 3: difficult because of the distances involved without having some kind
Speaker 3: of refueling situation. And then again you're over foreign territory,
Speaker 3: and who knows whether that's going to be a loud
Speaker 3: or shut down or whatever.
Speaker 2: So there are some real constraints on what Israel can do.
Speaker 1: Yes, there is, and maybe that's a good thing after all,
Speaker 1: because we don't want a global war to break out.
Speaker 2: Indeed, we don't.
Speaker 1: Well let's dive on over by speaking of global wars
Speaker 1: potentially breaking out. It by all accounts, and you know,
Speaker 1: the fog of war, you and I talk about it
Speaker 1: all the time. But doesn't sound like the Ukrainian military
Speaker 1: is going to be able to hold its own for
Speaker 1: very much longer. From what I've read, they're having obvious problems,
Speaker 1: you know, with the maintaining numbers in their standing army.
Speaker 1: They're grabbing people off the streets and forcing them into
Speaker 1: uniform that don't want to be there. My understanding is
Speaker 1: desertions are high, and yet here we find ourselves. What's
Speaker 1: your take on the current status?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's I mean, you just hit all the big
Speaker 3: points there that because Ukraine has lost so many people
Speaker 3: and no one has an official number, but plausible numbers
Speaker 3: are in the hundreds of thousands of killed and uh,
Speaker 3: you know, triple that number wounded. Uh.
Speaker 2: It is a massive number.
Speaker 3: And so they're the only way that they can just
Speaker 3: maintain what they have is to continue having a uh
Speaker 3: trough of new bodies to go in to fill up
Speaker 3: the uniforms that are blown up and killed in action,
Speaker 3: et cetera.
Speaker 2: And they just don't have it. They don't have that
Speaker 2: many men.
Speaker 3: And now then the people that especially the men that
Speaker 3: are left, are literally hiding in cellars, hiding out in
Speaker 3: the in the forests in different places because they're because
Speaker 3: they're sometimes picked up going to the grocery store, uh,
Speaker 3: you know, sometimes in uh uh.
Speaker 2: Bars and that kind of thing. So they literally don't
Speaker 2: go anywhere.
Speaker 3: And there are scores of videos every day practically on
Speaker 3: the Internet of people just being grabbed off the street,
Speaker 3: grabbed off their front porch uh in one I saw
Speaker 3: just a couple of days ago.
Speaker 2: Uh. And then we find out that when those.
Speaker 3: Guys get to the front, not surprisingly and this is
Speaker 3: according to CNN, not any kind of Russian disinformation. They
Speaker 3: had to report a couple of days ago that said, hey,
Speaker 3: when these they interviewed the commanders, there were Ukrainian commanders.
Speaker 3: They say, when these guys get there, they have almost
Speaker 3: no training and they're terrified. They run at the first
Speaker 3: side of contact, or they just flee and they they
Speaker 3: don't obey any orders if they survive. That was a
Speaker 3: horrible quote the guy used. If they survive first contact,
Speaker 3: they are afraid and won't go back into battle the
Speaker 3: second time. You just can't fight a war like that.
Speaker 3: The numbers just won't work. So where are in terms
Speaker 3: of the Russian side of the equation? You know, part
Speaker 3: of me just keeps thinking, for whatever reason, that they
Speaker 3: just don't want to really go all in and just
Speaker 3: end this with just massive forces. I don't know, militarily speaking,
Speaker 3: I'm not a strategist, but the comparative size of the
Speaker 3: militaries and the strength of Russia versus Ukraine, and it's
Speaker 3: just the two of them right now, I just kind
Speaker 3: of wonder, really kind of why it's taking Russia so
Speaker 3: long to get the job done. You would have thought
Speaker 3: that it would have been a rather quick conflict given
Speaker 3: the size of the army and the resources. It appears
Speaker 3: that Putin is very, very was risk averse, but he's
Speaker 3: also a very patient and methodical in his money. And
Speaker 3: we've seen this throughout For example, when Russia was driven
Speaker 3: out of Kharkiv area in twenty twenty two. When they
Speaker 3: abandoned the Kirsoon area and left Cirstone city in the
Speaker 3: fall of twenty twenty two, they then said, okay, we
Speaker 3: spent a full year on defense, and so they withdrew
Speaker 3: from all those areas, built all these defensive lines, manned them.
Speaker 3: At the same time, they're building up their defense industrial base.
Speaker 3: They're growing their base of troops by half a million,
Speaker 3: and so those things take time, and they were willing
Speaker 3: to take the time. So they did all of that
Speaker 3: for twenty twenty three, and then in twenty twenty four
Speaker 3: they've been methodically moving forward to take the last of
Speaker 3: the defensive lines and put Krobsk is the last of
Speaker 3: the existing defensive lines from twenty fourteen, and by all
Speaker 3: my estimation is when they break through that piece right there,
Speaker 3: then you finally may see this big force because they've
Speaker 3: been basically building it for a year and a half now,
Speaker 3: and there has been some evidence of even Belarus possibly
Speaker 3: joining in with this. They've moved a lot of troops
Speaker 3: to the front, I mean, to the border area there.
Speaker 3: Other Russian troops have moved closer to the border area.
Speaker 3: I think It's also instructive in this Kursk offensive that
Speaker 3: Russia has sealed it off, but they didn't send a
Speaker 3: bunch of forces to go and knock it out, even
Speaker 3: though they had them in the area, because it could
Speaker 3: be that they want to contain the Ukraine side.
Speaker 2: They want them to keep sending.
Speaker 3: Reserves into there so that they'll just be methodically destroyed
Speaker 3: and they won't be available elsewhere when those other troops
Speaker 3: move south into the border, and that's what I think
Speaker 3: could happen, possibly as early as it's fall.
Speaker 1: And the Ukrainian troops moving into Russia. I just think,
Speaker 1: for whatever reason, I'm having ideas of like the Germans
Speaker 1: endeavoring to take over Moscow and getting frozen out in
Speaker 1: the middle of winter. I mean, there's a lot of
Speaker 1: myles between here and there, a lot of territory that
Speaker 1: would have to be held and covered at a lot
Speaker 1: of distance. And then, like you said, there are a
Speaker 1: lot of Russian forces somewhere out there that could start
Speaker 1: defending themselves. In that readion, it's almost like they're just
Speaker 1: letting them wander around and waste their time.
Speaker 3: They are and look what you got to take examination
Speaker 3: also of where the incursion took place in that course region,
Speaker 3: and it's of no strategic value to Russia. It's it's
Speaker 3: a bunch of small villages and hamlets. There are no
Speaker 3: big cities in the area that they could attack, and
Speaker 3: the Ukraine side simply doesn't have the offensive punch.
Speaker 2: To make that a threat to Russia. All they could
Speaker 2: do is is.
Speaker 3: Make an incursion in there and you know, a little
Speaker 3: penetration and then that's it.
Speaker 2: That's now they're doing.
Speaker 3: It's all they can do since the tenth day of
Speaker 3: this thing, now well into a month into it, to
Speaker 3: just maintain what they have, and you see, it's just methodical.
Speaker 3: The Kremlin actually out today said we are now starting
Speaker 3: an operation to slowly expel all those forces. So they're
Speaker 3: going to now increase the firepower. They've been satisfied to
Speaker 3: just hit them with long range weapons, artillery, drones, attack aviation,
Speaker 3: et cetera, glide bombs, and it's been just a horrific
Speaker 3: casualty count. Now then they're saying they're going to actually
Speaker 3: start pushing them out as well, So we'll see in
Speaker 3: the next week or so.
Speaker 1: How that works out. This has been another Daniel Davis
Speaker 1: deep Di I've always enjoyed. Daniel, look forward to next
Speaker 1: two with another edition and encourage my listeners. Just search
Speaker 1: for it online. Daniel Davis Deep Dive to get more
Speaker 1: of what we're talking about today. Best of health, my friend,
Speaker 1: always a pleasure, Brian Too eight forty two fifty five
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