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<v Speaker 1>Fifty five kcit talk station. You know, it's that time,

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<v Speaker 1>the illiterative segment of the fifty five Carscity Morning Show.

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<v Speaker 1>It's called the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. You can find

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<v Speaker 1>the retired lieutenant colonel out there on the web. Just

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<v Speaker 1>search for Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Get his thoughtful analysis

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<v Speaker 1>on a lot of things military related. Of course, today

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<v Speaker 1>we're gonna talking about the latest on the Jimas Israel

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<v Speaker 1>situation as well as Ukraine. Daniel Davis, always a pleasure

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<v Speaker 1>to have you on my program sir, Always a pleasure

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<v Speaker 1>to be here. Brian, how are you. I'm doing fine.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm just joking earlier every day people always ask, hey

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<v Speaker 1>you doing, Brian is like, you know, half of me

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<v Speaker 1>wants to say I'm great, you know, personally, Then the

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<v Speaker 1>other half of me looks out in the world and goes, jeez, Louise,

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<v Speaker 1>I feel miserable. But it's usually about stuff I have nover,

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<v Speaker 1>no control over, like the situation unfolding in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm right there with you, you know, you get it.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, you want to be able to changise the world.

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<v Speaker 1>You wake up feeling like you got this weight on

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<v Speaker 1>your shoulders and come on, man, it's a weight that

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<v Speaker 1>well maybe shouldn't be there, but you know, you have

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<v Speaker 1>knowledge and skill sets in certain areas that force you

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<v Speaker 1>into having to deal with the cold, painful realities of

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<v Speaker 1>the world. And that's what we're doing here this morning.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's start with Hamas and israel I. See behind that

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<v Speaker 1>reality of their fighting back and forth, Iran is also

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<v Speaker 1>still threatening of some sort of what they call inevitable response.

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<v Speaker 1>After they took out the Hamas leader Ismail Hanie back

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<v Speaker 1>in July. They described this the Iranian Revolutionary Guard leaders said,

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<v Speaker 1>this is going to be a painful and different attack

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<v Speaker 1>than what you expect Israel, So they keep talking about

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<v Speaker 1>a response. It didn't come as quickly as most people thought.

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<v Speaker 1>But behind the Hamas and the hu Thi's you have Iran.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and look, I think that it's it is definitely

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<v Speaker 3>inevitable because you just can't strike it Iran in their

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<v Speaker 3>capital city on their inauguration weekend and think that not

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<v Speaker 3>you know, something isn't going to be done in retaliation.

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<v Speaker 3>The question is just going to be what, because as

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<v Speaker 3>they're pointing out, or as you pointed out, rather you know,

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<v Speaker 3>this wasn't the immediate retaliation reaction that many expected. They

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<v Speaker 3>thought that it would come within days, and then they said, well,

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<v Speaker 3>maybe it'll be after this forty day morning period. I

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<v Speaker 3>think that's even expired because that was the time frame

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<v Speaker 3>for the Hazbulah attack against Israel a week or so ago,

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<v Speaker 3>came after the fortieth day of morning, after one of

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<v Speaker 3>the commanders was assassinated by Israel.

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<v Speaker 2>So we don't know what it's going to be.

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<v Speaker 3>But it's interesting that the phrasing us that it's going

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<v Speaker 3>to be painful, but different than what you expect, which

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<v Speaker 3>means it's probably not going to be another three hundred

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<v Speaker 3>and fifty missile barrage like the one that came the

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<v Speaker 3>first time after Israel destroyed the embassy compound in the

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<v Speaker 3>Iranian embassy compound in Syria.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's unclear.

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<v Speaker 3>It could be something like assassination of a high value

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<v Speaker 3>Israeli target. It could be attacking an Israeli embassy in

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<v Speaker 3>some other countries, something that's not as defended. There's just

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<v Speaker 3>a whole range of things that it could be. But

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<v Speaker 3>the real the question's going to be then what happens,

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<v Speaker 3>because there's in my view, no chance that Israel says,

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<v Speaker 3>all right, well, that's fair, we did this. You did

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<v Speaker 3>that tip for tat Whi's call it a day first.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it's certain that they would then, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>go one more wrung up that escalation, and then we'll.

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<v Speaker 1>See what happens. Yeah, they'll use it as a pretext.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's exactly where I was going with you, because

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<v Speaker 1>if they get a strong response from Iran an assassination,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe a huge attack, whatever the response is, they're going

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<v Speaker 1>to use that as a pretext. And I bet they're

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<v Speaker 1>going to go in as hard as they possibly can

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<v Speaker 1>with some of those bunker buster type munitions and try

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<v Speaker 1>to eliminate the Iranian nuclear weapons sites that we all

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<v Speaker 1>know where they exist, least intelligence sources I think have

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<v Speaker 1>a firm idea where they're making these things.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you know, we do.

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<v Speaker 3>But it's also the nuclear program, as distinct from a

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<v Speaker 3>nuclear weapons program, is spread all over the place and

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<v Speaker 3>in multiple places, and quite a few of them are

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<v Speaker 3>like in the sides of mountains, et cetera. And it's

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<v Speaker 3>not clear that even the best bunker busters are going

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<v Speaker 3>to be able to take all that out. And look,

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<v Speaker 3>if Israel does that, I mean, that's that's as much

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<v Speaker 3>a declaration of war as you can get. Yeah, and

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<v Speaker 3>you know, and now then you've got the possibility of

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<v Speaker 3>exploding this, you know, nearly a year long attack in Israel,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, with guys of war et cetera, now exploding

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<v Speaker 3>beyond the borders. And then then all the gloves may

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<v Speaker 3>come off, with all of these run backed militia groups

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<v Speaker 3>spattered throughout the region, both the Rack, Syria, Jordan, et cetera.

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<v Speaker 3>Hezbola then could take its gloves off. And so far

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<v Speaker 3>it's it's held its powder. As you know, they've got

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<v Speaker 3>reportedly over one hundred and fifty thousand rockets of various tops,

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<v Speaker 3>which they've only used a small portion of so far.

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<v Speaker 2>So Israel has to be very careful.

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<v Speaker 3>They can't just go all in and say, ah, we

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<v Speaker 3>got this opportunity, now we're going to go strack, because

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<v Speaker 3>it's not clear that the United States is going to

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<v Speaker 3>just say, yeah, we'll just go to war with you,

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<v Speaker 3>even though some of our words have said that it's

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<v Speaker 3>a different thing to literally plunge yourself into a war

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<v Speaker 3>with Iran, given how bad and how long the one

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<v Speaker 3>with Iraq took.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and I suppose the Israeli forces are at some

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<v Speaker 1>point going to become strained, much in the way the

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<v Speaker 1>Ukrainian forces are strained. You know, they got the Houthis,

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<v Speaker 1>they got Hamas. They're surrounded by enemies that are under

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<v Speaker 1>constant attack and waging a war against a powerful country

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<v Speaker 1>like Iran, even though comparatively speaking not as powerful as Israel,

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<v Speaker 1>but they have a standing military. They have access to

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<v Speaker 1>weapons from other foes of Israel, including the Russians and

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<v Speaker 1>the Chinese, so their supply chain isn't going to break down.

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<v Speaker 3>And listen, it's also it's not even a matter of

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<v Speaker 3>the comparative strength between Israel and Iran, and Israel's way

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<v Speaker 3>on the upper side of that, but you know it's

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<v Speaker 3>geographically it's there's this massive distance between them. This is

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<v Speaker 3>not lack of Russia Ukraine where you can just pop

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<v Speaker 3>across the border one way or the other.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean this, and you have to cross countries to

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<v Speaker 2>get there. And what are you going to do.

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<v Speaker 3>You can't like motor across Iraq right to get into

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<v Speaker 3>it too there. Yeah, and even flying across is very

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<v Speaker 3>difficult because of the distances involved without having some kind

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<v Speaker 3>of refueling situation. And then again you're over foreign territory,

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<v Speaker 3>and who knows whether that's going to be a loud

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<v Speaker 3>or shut down or whatever.

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<v Speaker 2>So there are some real constraints on what Israel can do.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, there is, and maybe that's a good thing after all,

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<v Speaker 1>because we don't want a global war to break out.

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<v Speaker 2>Indeed, we don't.

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<v Speaker 1>Well let's dive on over by speaking of global wars

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<v Speaker 1>potentially breaking out. It by all accounts, and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the fog of war, you and I talk about it

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<v Speaker 1>all the time. But doesn't sound like the Ukrainian military

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<v Speaker 1>is going to be able to hold its own for

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<v Speaker 1>very much longer. From what I've read, they're having obvious problems,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, with the maintaining numbers in their standing army.

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<v Speaker 1>They're grabbing people off the streets and forcing them into

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<v Speaker 1>uniform that don't want to be there. My understanding is

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<v Speaker 1>desertions are high, and yet here we find ourselves. What's

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<v Speaker 1>your take on the current status?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's I mean, you just hit all the big

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<v Speaker 3>points there that because Ukraine has lost so many people

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<v Speaker 3>and no one has an official number, but plausible numbers

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<v Speaker 3>are in the hundreds of thousands of killed and uh,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, triple that number wounded. Uh.

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<v Speaker 2>It is a massive number.

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<v Speaker 3>And so they're the only way that they can just

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<v Speaker 3>maintain what they have is to continue having a uh

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<v Speaker 3>trough of new bodies to go in to fill up

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<v Speaker 3>the uniforms that are blown up and killed in action,

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<v Speaker 3>et cetera.

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<v Speaker 2>And they just don't have it. They don't have that

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<v Speaker 2>many men.

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<v Speaker 3>And now then the people that especially the men that

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<v Speaker 3>are left, are literally hiding in cellars, hiding out in

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<v Speaker 3>the in the forests in different places because they're because

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<v Speaker 3>they're sometimes picked up going to the grocery store, uh,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, sometimes in uh uh.

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<v Speaker 2>Bars and that kind of thing. So they literally don't

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<v Speaker 2>go anywhere.

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<v Speaker 3>And there are scores of videos every day practically on

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<v Speaker 3>the Internet of people just being grabbed off the street,

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<v Speaker 3>grabbed off their front porch uh in one I saw

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<v Speaker 3>just a couple of days ago.

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<v Speaker 2>Uh. And then we find out that when those.

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<v Speaker 3>Guys get to the front, not surprisingly and this is

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<v Speaker 3>according to CNN, not any kind of Russian disinformation. They

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<v Speaker 3>had to report a couple of days ago that said, hey,

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<v Speaker 3>when these they interviewed the commanders, there were Ukrainian commanders.

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<v Speaker 3>They say, when these guys get there, they have almost

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<v Speaker 3>no training and they're terrified. They run at the first

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<v Speaker 3>side of contact, or they just flee and they they

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<v Speaker 3>don't obey any orders if they survive. That was a

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<v Speaker 3>horrible quote the guy used. If they survive first contact,

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<v Speaker 3>they are afraid and won't go back into battle the

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<v Speaker 3>second time. You just can't fight a war like that.

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<v Speaker 3>The numbers just won't work. So where are in terms

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<v Speaker 3>of the Russian side of the equation? You know, part

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<v Speaker 3>of me just keeps thinking, for whatever reason, that they

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<v Speaker 3>just don't want to really go all in and just

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<v Speaker 3>end this with just massive forces. I don't know, militarily speaking,

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<v Speaker 3>I'm not a strategist, but the comparative size of the

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<v Speaker 3>militaries and the strength of Russia versus Ukraine, and it's

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<v Speaker 3>just the two of them right now, I just kind

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<v Speaker 3>of wonder, really kind of why it's taking Russia so

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<v Speaker 3>long to get the job done. You would have thought

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<v Speaker 3>that it would have been a rather quick conflict given

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<v Speaker 3>the size of the army and the resources. It appears

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<v Speaker 3>that Putin is very, very was risk averse, but he's

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<v Speaker 3>also a very patient and methodical in his money. And

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<v Speaker 3>we've seen this throughout For example, when Russia was driven

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<v Speaker 3>out of Kharkiv area in twenty twenty two. When they

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<v Speaker 3>abandoned the Kirsoon area and left Cirstone city in the

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<v Speaker 3>fall of twenty twenty two, they then said, okay, we

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<v Speaker 3>spent a full year on defense, and so they withdrew

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<v Speaker 3>from all those areas, built all these defensive lines, manned them.

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<v Speaker 3>At the same time, they're building up their defense industrial base.

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<v Speaker 3>They're growing their base of troops by half a million,

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<v Speaker 3>and so those things take time, and they were willing

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<v Speaker 3>to take the time. So they did all of that

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<v Speaker 3>for twenty twenty three, and then in twenty twenty four

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<v Speaker 3>they've been methodically moving forward to take the last of

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<v Speaker 3>the defensive lines and put Krobsk is the last of

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<v Speaker 3>the existing defensive lines from twenty fourteen, and by all

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<v Speaker 3>my estimation is when they break through that piece right there,

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<v Speaker 3>then you finally may see this big force because they've

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<v Speaker 3>been basically building it for a year and a half now,

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<v Speaker 3>and there has been some evidence of even Belarus possibly

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<v Speaker 3>joining in with this. They've moved a lot of troops

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<v Speaker 3>to the front, I mean, to the border area there.

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<v Speaker 3>Other Russian troops have moved closer to the border area.

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<v Speaker 3>I think It's also instructive in this Kursk offensive that

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<v Speaker 3>Russia has sealed it off, but they didn't send a

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<v Speaker 3>bunch of forces to go and knock it out, even

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<v Speaker 3>though they had them in the area, because it could

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<v Speaker 3>be that they want to contain the Ukraine side.

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<v Speaker 2>They want them to keep sending.

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<v Speaker 3>Reserves into there so that they'll just be methodically destroyed

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<v Speaker 3>and they won't be available elsewhere when those other troops

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<v Speaker 3>move south into the border, and that's what I think

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<v Speaker 3>could happen, possibly as early as it's fall.

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<v Speaker 1>And the Ukrainian troops moving into Russia. I just think,

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<v Speaker 1>for whatever reason, I'm having ideas of like the Germans

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<v Speaker 1>endeavoring to take over Moscow and getting frozen out in

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<v Speaker 1>the middle of winter. I mean, there's a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>myles between here and there, a lot of territory that

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<v Speaker 1>would have to be held and covered at a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of distance. And then, like you said, there are a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of Russian forces somewhere out there that could start

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<v Speaker 1>defending themselves. In that readion, it's almost like they're just

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<v Speaker 1>letting them wander around and waste their time.

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<v Speaker 3>They are and look what you got to take examination

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<v Speaker 3>also of where the incursion took place in that course region,

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<v Speaker 3>and it's of no strategic value to Russia. It's it's

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<v Speaker 3>a bunch of small villages and hamlets. There are no

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<v Speaker 3>big cities in the area that they could attack, and

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<v Speaker 3>the Ukraine side simply doesn't have the offensive punch.

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<v Speaker 2>To make that a threat to Russia. All they could

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<v Speaker 2>do is is.

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<v Speaker 3>Make an incursion in there and you know, a little

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<v Speaker 3>penetration and then that's it.

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<v Speaker 2>That's now they're doing.

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<v Speaker 3>It's all they can do since the tenth day of

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<v Speaker 3>this thing, now well into a month into it, to

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<v Speaker 3>just maintain what they have, and you see, it's just methodical.

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<v Speaker 3>The Kremlin actually out today said we are now starting

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<v Speaker 3>an operation to slowly expel all those forces. So they're

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<v Speaker 3>going to now increase the firepower. They've been satisfied to

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<v Speaker 3>just hit them with long range weapons, artillery, drones, attack aviation,

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<v Speaker 3>et cetera, glide bombs, and it's been just a horrific

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<v Speaker 3>casualty count. Now then they're saying they're going to actually

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<v Speaker 3>start pushing them out as well, So we'll see in

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<v Speaker 3>the next week or so.

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<v Speaker 1>How that works out. This has been another Daniel Davis

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<v Speaker 1>deep Di I've always enjoyed. Daniel, look forward to next

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<v Speaker 1>two with another edition and encourage my listeners. Just search

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<v Speaker 1>for it online. Daniel Davis Deep Dive to get more

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<v Speaker 1>of what we're talking about today. Best of health, my friend,

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<v Speaker 1>always a pleasure, Brian Too eight forty two fifty five

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<v Speaker 3>This is fifty five KRC, an iHeartRadio station, a U line.

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<v Speaker 2>The prevailing opinion is if you don't live it, you

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<v Speaker 2>don't believe it. The people at you line believe in

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<v Speaker 2>hard work,