WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.520 --> 00:00:05.559 Ask not what your country can do for you, at 2 00:00:05.719 --> 00:00:08.720 what you can do for your mister. 3 00:00:10.119 --> 00:00:19.920 Chair down this wall, read my lips. It's the Ricochet 4 00:00:19.960 --> 00:00:22.879 Podcast with Peter Robinson and Stephen Hayward. I'm James Blonlacks 5 00:00:22.920 --> 00:00:25.519 and day we talked to Henry also pollster guru who 6 00:00:25.600 --> 00:00:26.239 got it right. 7 00:00:26.519 --> 00:00:28.559 So let's episode is a podcast. 8 00:00:29.480 --> 00:00:31.800 You fired, get the healthy. 9 00:00:32.399 --> 00:00:32.920 Get here. 10 00:00:36.600 --> 00:00:40.439 Welcome to well well, well, well sorry, welcome to the 11 00:00:40.520 --> 00:00:43.439 Ricochet Podcast. Now we're seven hundred and sixteen James Lilax 12 00:00:43.479 --> 00:00:46.039 here in Minnesota, where our governor soon will be returning 13 00:00:46.119 --> 00:00:50.280 to to governate. And I'm joined by Stephen Hayward and 14 00:00:50.640 --> 00:00:53.439 by what's his name, Peter Robinson. That's right, both of 15 00:00:53.439 --> 00:00:59.280 them in California, where I imagine the mood might be 16 00:00:59.719 --> 00:01:03.039 joy or desponded, depending on where you are. Here in Minnesota, 17 00:01:03.359 --> 00:01:06.359 people are going about their day, smiles in the skyway. 18 00:01:06.879 --> 00:01:10.239 Life goes on as usual somehow, even though the hob 19 00:01:10.400 --> 00:01:13.920 nailed boot of imminent militarized authoritarianism as yet to descend 20 00:01:14.000 --> 00:01:19.040 upon us at any second. Now, and gentlemen, welcome. Were 21 00:01:19.079 --> 00:01:19.799 you surprised? 22 00:01:21.560 --> 00:01:26.159 I was surprised. I was surprised. I had in my head, 23 00:01:27.200 --> 00:01:30.319 I had thought Pennsylvania might be very, very close. I 24 00:01:31.359 --> 00:01:34.000 had given him in my mind before the polls closed. 25 00:01:34.000 --> 00:01:38.120 I'd given him Georgia and North Carolina and Arizona. That 26 00:01:38.480 --> 00:01:43.159 seemed reasonable to do. But everything else struck me as 27 00:01:43.239 --> 00:01:47.319 touch and go. So I was just wrong, and I 28 00:01:47.400 --> 00:01:52.519 was very surprised. I was happily surprised, needless to say, Stephen, 29 00:01:52.920 --> 00:01:57.799 I was not surprised, and I'm easy to say now, Heyward, 30 00:01:57.959 --> 00:01:58.359 well no. 31 00:01:58.400 --> 00:02:00.560 I'll give you a I'll give you my un I'll 32 00:02:00.599 --> 00:02:03.640 restate my unscientific opinion I voiced here I don't know 33 00:02:03.640 --> 00:02:06.040 a month or six weeks ago, which was Trump is 34 00:02:06.079 --> 00:02:09.360 one of these world historical figures. I don't want to 35 00:02:09.360 --> 00:02:11.520 say exactly the same, but you know, like Napoleon, like 36 00:02:11.599 --> 00:02:14.800 de Gaull, who's destined to get the job. That's unscientific, 37 00:02:14.879 --> 00:02:17.599 but that doesn't mean it's not true. The scientific answer, 38 00:02:17.599 --> 00:02:21.360 Peter was this. I was watching the polls converging and 39 00:02:21.400 --> 00:02:23.919 thinking this is weird, and mate Silver said the same thing. 40 00:02:23.960 --> 00:02:27.400 And I thought Trump is a candidate who is hard 41 00:02:27.400 --> 00:02:30.280 to pull, and Ronald Reagan was hard to pull. They 42 00:02:30.319 --> 00:02:32.599 come along once in a while, and despite all the 43 00:02:32.639 --> 00:02:35.680 pollsters saying we're working really hard to try not to 44 00:02:35.759 --> 00:02:38.879 be so far off this time. I assumed that even 45 00:02:38.919 --> 00:02:41.719 if the polling air had been closed by two thirds, 46 00:02:42.199 --> 00:02:44.599 that still gave Trump a one point lead in the 47 00:02:44.639 --> 00:02:46.759 popular vote, and that was going to translate to a 48 00:02:47.400 --> 00:02:49.599 you know, a near sweep. And I think it's actually 49 00:02:49.599 --> 00:02:51.240 more than that. We'll get on with Henry. And by 50 00:02:51.280 --> 00:02:53.360 the way, that's the other thing. Darn that guy joining 51 00:02:53.400 --> 00:02:55.199 us in a few minutes if he didn't have it 52 00:02:55.240 --> 00:02:57.840 absolutely nailed. And you know, I've known Henry for forty 53 00:02:57.919 --> 00:03:01.400 years and been following his forecast for twenty years. This 54 00:03:01.560 --> 00:03:05.800 was his most detailed and most optimistic ever. And I thought, boy, 55 00:03:05.840 --> 00:03:07.639 you can take it to the bank when Henry is 56 00:03:07.680 --> 00:03:10.000 that definitive about things, and he turned out to be 57 00:03:10.159 --> 00:03:11.039 exactly right. 58 00:03:11.400 --> 00:03:11.639 Right. 59 00:03:11.800 --> 00:03:14.000 Let me ask you a question. Do you think it 60 00:03:14.000 --> 00:03:16.919 would have been different if Ron DeSantis had been the candidate? 61 00:03:16.960 --> 00:03:19.639 Because oh, I don't think. I don't think Ron DeSantis 62 00:03:19.639 --> 00:03:21.000 would have beat Kamala Harris. 63 00:03:21.719 --> 00:03:25.120 You know, you know I wonder about that. First of all, 64 00:03:25.120 --> 00:03:27.479 I'm actually working on a piece before it came on. 65 00:03:29.240 --> 00:03:32.400 You know who Democrats most wanted to run against Donald Trump? 66 00:03:32.599 --> 00:03:34.639 That's why they intervened with the law affair and all 67 00:03:34.680 --> 00:03:37.039 the other things to boost him. Peter, you may remember 68 00:03:37.080 --> 00:03:39.680 this is actually James. You may too. This isn't well 69 00:03:39.919 --> 00:03:43.000 established in history books. Go back to nineteen seventy nine. 70 00:03:43.400 --> 00:03:46.759 The Democrat Jimmy Carter most wanted to run against was 71 00:03:47.039 --> 00:03:50.240 Ronald Reagan. We know how that worked out, right. I 72 00:03:50.280 --> 00:03:52.120 think we're seeing a repeat of that for some of 73 00:03:52.120 --> 00:03:55.319 the same fundamental reasons is in competence of Democrats and 74 00:03:55.680 --> 00:03:59.120 judging the mood of the nation, and in misjudging their opposition. 75 00:04:00.039 --> 00:04:02.759 So I don't know about Pete. I mean, I thought here, 76 00:04:02.800 --> 00:04:05.719 I'm still somewhat conventional. I thought another candidate would be 77 00:04:05.759 --> 00:04:08.560 a more certain thing than Trump because of old Trump's baggage. 78 00:04:09.080 --> 00:04:11.840 But lo and behold, Trump ran ahead of Republicans just 79 00:04:11.879 --> 00:04:14.879 about everywhere, which wasn't true. It wasn't true in twenty 80 00:04:14.919 --> 00:04:17.879 sixteen and even twenty twenty, right as you had split 81 00:04:17.879 --> 00:04:20.720 tickets and whatnot. Some and the fact that he ran 82 00:04:20.839 --> 00:04:23.399 so strongly everywhere and ahead of a lot of Republican 83 00:04:23.399 --> 00:04:26.360 candidates tells me that maybe he was the best candidate 84 00:04:26.360 --> 00:04:27.519 for the cycle after all. 85 00:04:29.319 --> 00:04:31.160 In let me see if I get this right. In 86 00:04:31.199 --> 00:04:37.759 twenty twenty twenty, Yes, twenty twenty, Rob Portman, Have I 87 00:04:37.800 --> 00:04:40.839 got this right? Or was it twenty sixteen? In any event, 88 00:04:40.959 --> 00:04:44.360 Rob Portman, Senator from Ohio, won his race by twenty 89 00:04:44.360 --> 00:04:46.759 one points. This is twenty sixteen. He won by twenty 90 00:04:46.800 --> 00:04:49.480 one points and Donald Trump won by eight. 91 00:04:49.959 --> 00:04:50.199 Right. 92 00:04:50.800 --> 00:04:55.240 This time around Moreno, Bernie Moreno won by half a 93 00:04:55.279 --> 00:04:58.759 point right, and Trump carried Ohio by six seven eight 94 00:04:58.839 --> 00:05:04.759 something like that. So Trump was the major figure I 95 00:05:04.839 --> 00:05:08.079 in the primaries. I supported Ronda Santis, not that anybody 96 00:05:08.199 --> 00:05:13.920 noticed me too. So I supported Ronda Santis, and I 97 00:05:14.000 --> 00:05:20.439 just thought, let's the the liabilities of Donald Trump are 98 00:05:20.519 --> 00:05:24.399 just he upsets people. He just let's move beyond him. 99 00:05:24.439 --> 00:05:26.720 It's time to move beyond him. Okay, was I right 100 00:05:26.800 --> 00:05:29.319 or was I wrong? We'll never know. You can't run 101 00:05:29.360 --> 00:05:33.839 controlled experiments in politics. But the evidence that I was 102 00:05:33.879 --> 00:05:38.000 wrong is considerable, and it runs as follows. Donald Trump 103 00:05:38.439 --> 00:05:48.120 swung Hispanics into the Republican Party. Donald Trump. It faries overall, 104 00:05:48.560 --> 00:05:51.839 I understand we'll ask Henry about this, but overall, even 105 00:05:51.839 --> 00:05:54.399 among young black men, the black vote isn't up all 106 00:05:54.560 --> 00:05:59.040 that dramatically. Nationally, But there are places where it really 107 00:05:59.160 --> 00:06:02.040 jumped to any one points, as I recall in North Carolina, 108 00:06:02.319 --> 00:06:05.920 could Ron DeSantis have done that? I don't know. Yesterday, 109 00:06:05.920 --> 00:06:10.319 we're thinking about having our house remodeled, which is it 110 00:06:10.319 --> 00:06:14.399 turns out in California it takes as you pledge every 111 00:06:14.560 --> 00:06:17.199 penny you're ever have earned or ever will earned, and 112 00:06:17.279 --> 00:06:18.920 you still have to wait a year for the permits 113 00:06:18.959 --> 00:06:21.240 to come through. In any event, we're talking with our Peter. 114 00:06:21.279 --> 00:06:22.959 You're going to come visit me on that process and 115 00:06:22.959 --> 00:06:23.800 I'll show you what you get it. 116 00:06:23.920 --> 00:06:27.600 Yeah, okay, exactly, Okay, thank you. Anyway, we had our 117 00:06:27.600 --> 00:06:30.720 general contractor over and this is a guy who works 118 00:06:30.759 --> 00:06:32.879 with his hands, who works with guys who work with 119 00:06:32.959 --> 00:06:37.800 their hands, and these are these are working people, and 120 00:06:38.040 --> 00:06:40.879 you know what we we we talked around the subject 121 00:06:41.000 --> 00:06:43.680 very gingerly until he discovered because most of his clients 122 00:06:43.680 --> 00:06:45.680 are not Trump supporters, but until he discovered it was 123 00:06:45.720 --> 00:06:48.920 me he was talking to. And you know what, he 124 00:06:49.279 --> 00:06:53.560 and his crews look at Donald Trump and say that's 125 00:06:53.839 --> 00:06:58.639 our guy, that's our guy. Does anybody look at Rond 126 00:06:58.639 --> 00:07:01.639 DeSantis and say it with the same kind of just 127 00:07:02.639 --> 00:07:04.160 automatic visceral. 128 00:07:05.279 --> 00:07:05.759 Affiliate. 129 00:07:05.879 --> 00:07:06.639 I just don't know. 130 00:07:06.759 --> 00:07:09.439 I just don't know, because he doesn't have the galvanic 131 00:07:09.560 --> 00:07:12.879 dynamism that Trump was displaying in the campaign. You know, 132 00:07:12.959 --> 00:07:15.079 for an old duffer, he's got the energy. Now I 133 00:07:15.120 --> 00:07:17.399 think it been if it had been Harris versus Disantis, 134 00:07:17.399 --> 00:07:19.879 ascensus would have come across has a bit stayed in, 135 00:07:19.920 --> 00:07:21.839 a bit wonky. He would have been the Ducacus of 136 00:07:21.879 --> 00:07:24.079 the campaign. And I say this again as a Disanta 137 00:07:24.120 --> 00:07:29.160 support of went back, but this was different. I was 138 00:07:29.360 --> 00:07:32.279 stunned and surprise. If you have told me this was 139 00:07:32.279 --> 00:07:33.720 going to happen a year and a half or so ago, 140 00:07:33.720 --> 00:07:35.800 I would have told you you're absolutely crazy, because like Peter, 141 00:07:35.879 --> 00:07:38.439 I would say, he just rubs people the wrong way, 142 00:07:38.439 --> 00:07:40.839 that he's lost the independence, that women hate him, all 143 00:07:40.879 --> 00:07:44.000 of these things. He got more women, suburban women I 144 00:07:44.040 --> 00:07:47.079 think went forty one forty seven for Trump, and he 145 00:07:47.639 --> 00:07:50.519 increased his numbers there. So how much of that is 146 00:07:50.600 --> 00:07:56.759 due to just a weary attitude towards people's perceptions of 147 00:07:56.759 --> 00:07:58.759 the economy and how much of that actually is due 148 00:07:58.800 --> 00:08:00.639 to the man himself? And the more that I look 149 00:08:00.680 --> 00:08:02.680 at it, the more that I think that it is 150 00:08:02.759 --> 00:08:06.160 due to the man himself, And it's not a detailed, granular, 151 00:08:06.240 --> 00:08:07.800 atomic assessment to the man. 152 00:08:08.240 --> 00:08:09.199 He really isn't. 153 00:08:09.240 --> 00:08:12.639 It's just a general wide perception. I mean, And this 154 00:08:12.720 --> 00:08:15.360 is what politics does. This is what politics is all about. 155 00:08:15.399 --> 00:08:18.000 Most people don't go into the voting booth with a 156 00:08:18.120 --> 00:08:21.720 very you know, with a list of things about their 157 00:08:21.759 --> 00:08:25.199 candidate in agate type. They don't. It's it's it's it's 158 00:08:25.240 --> 00:08:28.360 a gut, it's a swing correct moment, the moment that 159 00:08:28.439 --> 00:08:30.160 he got winged in the ear and stood up and 160 00:08:31.000 --> 00:08:35.039 and pumped his fist, I thought, well, that's it. I'd 161 00:08:35.080 --> 00:08:36.960 gone from you know, a year and a half ago 162 00:08:37.000 --> 00:08:39.759 saying there's absolutely no way it's insanity to run the 163 00:08:39.799 --> 00:08:42.519 man to well, that's the moment right there. That's that's 164 00:08:42.559 --> 00:08:44.879 the tr bully moment. That is that is going to 165 00:08:44.919 --> 00:08:47.200 do it. Uh And in the end, I think it did. 166 00:08:47.840 --> 00:08:52.320 So another question because I mean a lot of what 167 00:08:52.320 --> 00:08:53.919 we're going to say has been shoot over again and 168 00:08:53.919 --> 00:08:57.919 again and again and again. But I am interested in 169 00:08:57.960 --> 00:09:00.840 the what's next thing, because there's two there's what next. 170 00:09:00.960 --> 00:09:03.720 There's the inevitable disappointment that a lot of the conservatives 171 00:09:03.720 --> 00:09:05.200 are going to feel with Donald trumb but he does 172 00:09:05.200 --> 00:09:09.919 something they don't like, and the satisfaction and the perhaps 173 00:09:10.600 --> 00:09:12.960 surprise when he does something that nobody ever thought that 174 00:09:13.039 --> 00:09:17.639 anybody would. We'll see. But I'm interested in how they 175 00:09:17.720 --> 00:09:21.279 left the progus, the liberals, those groups are reassessing and 176 00:09:21.320 --> 00:09:26.200 reevaluating themselves because what I'm reading two things. One, well, 177 00:09:26.559 --> 00:09:30.000 it's because Harris backed away from her twenty nineteen stuff. 178 00:09:30.000 --> 00:09:32.960 She wasn't progressive, but it proved true progressive ism has 179 00:09:33.000 --> 00:09:35.720 never been tried. If she'd done that, she would have 180 00:09:35.759 --> 00:09:38.159 got everybody. And then people who have a more moderate 181 00:09:38.120 --> 00:09:41.120 advantage are saying, look, you may not like these people 182 00:09:41.159 --> 00:09:43.600 now because you've lost them, but there is a reason 183 00:09:43.639 --> 00:09:46.360 that you did, and it is a wise thing to 184 00:09:46.399 --> 00:09:49.559 do to look at why groups upon which you had 185 00:09:49.639 --> 00:09:54.240 historically depended moved away. What is it about your message 186 00:09:54.440 --> 00:09:58.720 and in getting through? And to me it would seem 187 00:09:59.480 --> 00:10:04.279 that yes, inflation and immigration, those were the big things 188 00:10:04.399 --> 00:10:06.879 that were driving people and pushing people to Trump because 189 00:10:06.879 --> 00:10:09.240 they know what his instincts are. But it also is 190 00:10:09.279 --> 00:10:13.480 sort of a general, incoherent, sometimes specific rejection of a 191 00:10:13.519 --> 00:10:18.039 cultural drift that people don't like because they regarded as 192 00:10:18.360 --> 00:10:23.840 anathema to America. They regarded as as a strange efflorescent 193 00:10:24.039 --> 00:10:27.799 that flared out of the ground in twenty twenty and 194 00:10:27.960 --> 00:10:33.000 like a plume of vesuvius, darkened disguise and contaminated everything 195 00:10:33.039 --> 00:10:37.559 that it touched, so that what should have been and 196 00:10:38.159 --> 00:10:40.600 could have been a national conversation about a variety of 197 00:10:40.639 --> 00:10:47.080 issues turned into an ideological campaign that sought to upend 198 00:10:47.240 --> 00:10:50.519 a lot of things that people believed that characterized this culture. 199 00:10:52.000 --> 00:10:55.919 And that was your brilliant riff, James of what was 200 00:10:55.960 --> 00:10:58.159 it three weeks ago, four weeks ago, five weeks ago. 201 00:10:58.519 --> 00:11:01.080 I repeating myself, I'm repeating, no, no. 202 00:11:00.840 --> 00:11:03.000 No, no, Actually you're not You're not quite as good 203 00:11:03.000 --> 00:11:04.279 as you were the first time through. 204 00:11:05.559 --> 00:11:08.639 Well, you did a critic You did. 205 00:11:08.559 --> 00:11:10.600 A kind of catechism. I really thought, In fact, I 206 00:11:10.679 --> 00:11:13.480 was so I would like to ask our producer Perry 207 00:11:13.519 --> 00:11:14.919 to make a note of this. Let's go back and 208 00:11:14.919 --> 00:11:17.279 see if we can not at the moment, but we 209 00:11:17.279 --> 00:11:18.879 should put it up on the website. We should have 210 00:11:18.879 --> 00:11:21.879 a transcribe because it was beautiful. Give James a chance 211 00:11:21.879 --> 00:11:23.639 to edit if he wants to. But it was a 212 00:11:23.720 --> 00:11:27.480 kind of catechism of the things we know. Trump won't 213 00:11:27.919 --> 00:11:32.039 do you remember that, and he won't he won't come 214 00:11:32.159 --> 00:11:35.919 after decent people. He won't raise taxes, he won't do this. 215 00:11:35.960 --> 00:11:38.200 He won't do but he won't he won't try to 216 00:11:38.240 --> 00:11:41.840 tell you that your that your daughter should accept, should 217 00:11:41.879 --> 00:11:44.399 put up with men, young men in her locker room. Right, 218 00:11:44.440 --> 00:11:47.360 Remember that it was I think the cultural stuff was 219 00:11:47.480 --> 00:11:49.000 really powerful. 220 00:11:49.519 --> 00:11:51.799 Well, and again not to hijack this thing entirely, because 221 00:11:51.799 --> 00:11:53.679 I'll hand it to you both after this I as 222 00:11:53.720 --> 00:11:57.120 a form of masochism and enjoyment. Listen the next day 223 00:11:57.519 --> 00:12:01.840 to a five hour podcast done by Brits about the 224 00:12:01.879 --> 00:12:06.120 election as it was happening all myness. It's a politics 225 00:12:06.120 --> 00:12:09.519 show called The Rest is Politics, and it's part of 226 00:12:09.559 --> 00:12:12.679 a series of shows The Rest is History, the Rest 227 00:12:12.759 --> 00:12:15.200 is Entertainment. But the reason that I listened to it 228 00:12:15.240 --> 00:12:17.799 was because one of the people on the panel was 229 00:12:17.799 --> 00:12:20.480 Dominic Sandbrook, who is from the rest of history and 230 00:12:20.639 --> 00:12:23.240 is a scholar of American elections to the point where 231 00:12:23.559 --> 00:12:26.480 he is so steeped in nineteen sixty eight and Eugene 232 00:12:26.559 --> 00:12:28.679 McCarthy that he can rattle off at the top of 233 00:12:28.720 --> 00:12:31.799 his head the entirety of McCarthy's campaign. He went to Minnesota, 234 00:12:31.840 --> 00:12:34.919 You interviewed the guys and just great, fantastic guy, Britt Witty. 235 00:12:35.360 --> 00:12:37.000 He was the only one on the panel who said 236 00:12:37.000 --> 00:12:38.720 what they went around and asked for predictions. He was 237 00:12:38.759 --> 00:12:41.240 the only one in dead Trump because he had a keen, 238 00:12:41.399 --> 00:12:44.720 he had an instinctive understanding of what drives American elections. 239 00:12:45.159 --> 00:12:49.600 And the rest of them were all appalled that anybody could, 240 00:12:49.600 --> 00:12:53.080 that any thinking person could talk about Harris's imminent victory 241 00:12:53.120 --> 00:12:56.360 in any other way than to welcome it with open arms, because, 242 00:12:56.720 --> 00:13:00.200 as they said, listen to that speech that Michelle. 243 00:13:00.240 --> 00:13:01.679 Michelle Obama made for her. 244 00:13:01.799 --> 00:13:04.879 Oh and Sandbrook would tell them, look, I hate to 245 00:13:04.919 --> 00:13:10.080 tell you this, but that doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. 246 00:13:10.320 --> 00:13:13.879 People don't follow politics or no politics in the way 247 00:13:13.919 --> 00:13:18.600 that you and I do. They don't, And so they 248 00:13:18.600 --> 00:13:20.679 were absolutely stunned. The next day, I listened to the 249 00:13:20.720 --> 00:13:22.679 next day's podcast as well. Of course they were all 250 00:13:22.720 --> 00:13:26.840 experts on why Harris lost the next day, but it 251 00:13:27.000 --> 00:13:30.200 was that same sort of walled off in a bubble. 252 00:13:30.639 --> 00:13:33.759 So people on Twitter are saying, hey, Twitter, if you 253 00:13:33.919 --> 00:13:35.759 just if you just hung around on Twitter, you would 254 00:13:35.759 --> 00:13:37.559 have known that Trump was going to win, Which makes 255 00:13:37.600 --> 00:13:40.480 me think I'm not so sure about that. And it 256 00:13:40.519 --> 00:13:42.759 may be possible that Twitter is a bubble as well 257 00:13:42.799 --> 00:13:44.759 for the right, but they just got it. They just 258 00:13:45.320 --> 00:13:47.399 work correct this time because it was on the right. 259 00:13:48.120 --> 00:13:50.399 So do you think then we're going to have a 260 00:13:50.399 --> 00:13:54.440 productive conversation about what the future of the left in 261 00:13:54.480 --> 00:13:55.480 this country needs to be? 262 00:13:56.399 --> 00:13:58.000 He said, not yet yet. 263 00:13:58.080 --> 00:13:59.440 No, no, no yet, no. 264 00:13:59.679 --> 00:14:01.759 I think there's precedent for this. Actually, I think we 265 00:14:01.759 --> 00:14:03.600 can actually look at history and say how long it 266 00:14:03.639 --> 00:14:07.440 takes for the Party of the Left to rethink matters 267 00:14:07.799 --> 00:14:11.159 and they have to be defeated three times. Margaret Thatcher 268 00:14:11.200 --> 00:14:14.639 had to win three times before the Labor Party in 269 00:14:14.679 --> 00:14:19.159 Britain began the search, the soul searching that would lead 270 00:14:19.159 --> 00:14:21.960 to Tony Blair. Tony Blair was a catastrophe in my judgment, 271 00:14:21.960 --> 00:14:25.279 although for all the opposite I tend to think he 272 00:14:25.320 --> 00:14:28.159 was a catastrophe for reasons opposite to those that people 273 00:14:28.159 --> 00:14:30.919 in Britain think he was a catastrophe. But he was 274 00:14:30.960 --> 00:14:34.519 a much more moderate figure and much more electable figure 275 00:14:34.519 --> 00:14:36.519 than Michael Foot and Neil Kinnick and all the people 276 00:14:36.519 --> 00:14:39.440 who were up against Margaret Thatcher. Ronald Reagan had to 277 00:14:39.480 --> 00:14:42.000 win twice, and George H. W. Bush had to win once. 278 00:14:42.120 --> 00:14:46.200 That makes three defeats for the Democrats. Before that centrist 279 00:14:46.480 --> 00:14:50.519 Bill Clinton appears and wins. They have to be clobbered, 280 00:14:50.600 --> 00:14:52.960 not You can't get their attention by hitting them over 281 00:14:53.000 --> 00:14:54.360 the head with the two by four once. 282 00:14:55.200 --> 00:14:58.639 Yeah, this reminds me of the old joke the neo 283 00:14:58.720 --> 00:15:00.559 conservatives used to tell was the we are moving from 284 00:15:00.639 --> 00:15:03.200 left to the right in the seventies about the preacher 285 00:15:03.200 --> 00:15:06.720 in church who says, oh, I got mugged the other day. 286 00:15:07.039 --> 00:15:08.919 It took my wall, I got a bruise, you know, 287 00:15:09.840 --> 00:15:11.960 but I want you all to know that I still have, 288 00:15:12.000 --> 00:15:15.200 you know, nothing but kindness and forgiving and compassionate thoughts 289 00:15:15.240 --> 00:15:18.080 towards you know, people who are driven to crime. And 290 00:15:18.120 --> 00:15:20.720 some lady in the back of the church says, mug 291 00:15:20.799 --> 00:15:25.039 him again. And this is what has to happen, right Look, 292 00:15:25.080 --> 00:15:26.639 the Democrats are in you know, we can do the 293 00:15:26.639 --> 00:15:28.679 seven stages of brief whoever many of they are there 294 00:15:28.720 --> 00:15:30.919 in the denial stage right now, and they're very good 295 00:15:30.960 --> 00:15:33.879 at that and lashing out, of course at you know, 296 00:15:34.159 --> 00:15:36.960 white women don't do their job. Who knew that Julia 297 00:15:37.039 --> 00:15:39.320 Robert said was not going to work, and that Taylor 298 00:15:39.360 --> 00:15:43.480 Swift cancel will sway millions of votes, right, and they'll 299 00:15:43.519 --> 00:15:46.279 have a circular firing squad. But I keep quiet, Peter. 300 00:15:46.360 --> 00:15:49.000 I mean back to that eighties example, as early as 301 00:15:49.080 --> 00:15:52.600 nineteen eighty eight. There's a great book about this from 302 00:15:52.759 --> 00:15:55.039 I think it was a minority Party by Peter Brown, 303 00:15:55.159 --> 00:15:57.720 a reporter for Scripts, I think an African American reporter, 304 00:15:57.759 --> 00:16:00.480 by the way, and he reported on how throughout the 305 00:16:00.480 --> 00:16:03.679 eighty eight campaign there was Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton trying 306 00:16:03.679 --> 00:16:06.200 to persuade you caucus, No, you have to support the 307 00:16:06.200 --> 00:16:09.200 pledge of allegiance, right, and he said, I think we 308 00:16:09.240 --> 00:16:12.440 don't have to distance ourself from Jesse Jackson. Clinton said 309 00:16:12.440 --> 00:16:14.799 this on the record, we don't have to distance ourself 310 00:16:14.799 --> 00:16:18.519 from Jesse Jackson. We need to disagree with Jesse Jackson. 311 00:16:18.960 --> 00:16:21.159 Four years later you got the sister Soldier moment and 312 00:16:21.200 --> 00:16:24.879 all the rest of that. Harris was utterly incapable of 313 00:16:24.919 --> 00:16:28.879 the slightest gesture. What here in California listeners may know, 314 00:16:28.960 --> 00:16:32.399 we had our Proposition thirty six to re equivalize shoplifting. 315 00:16:32.799 --> 00:16:35.559 It passed by two to one. Harris would not take 316 00:16:35.600 --> 00:16:38.399 a position on it when asked about it, right, and 317 00:16:38.720 --> 00:16:40.919 that just you know Clinton would have that would have 318 00:16:40.960 --> 00:16:42.879 slam dunk for Clinton. He would have gotten that. So 319 00:16:42.960 --> 00:16:44.639 we're gonna have to see if we're going to another 320 00:16:44.679 --> 00:16:46.480 Clinton moment for the Democrats or not. 321 00:16:47.960 --> 00:16:50.279 Yes, if you can't come out in favor of putting 322 00:16:50.320 --> 00:16:53.120 people whose shoplift away in jail after they walk into 323 00:16:53.120 --> 00:16:56.039 the Walgreens and Philly Aft Black fifty five, you know, 324 00:16:56.240 --> 00:16:59.639 court trash bag full of cosmetics. We're not exactly talking 325 00:16:59.679 --> 00:17:02.639 to jeann Vell john situation here, but she didn't but 326 00:17:02.679 --> 00:17:04.720 she didn't want to be javert despite the fact that 327 00:17:04.759 --> 00:17:07.799 she ran on her previous existence as anyway, enough of me. 328 00:17:08.559 --> 00:17:11.319 Doctor Henry Henry Olsen, a Senior Fellow with the Ethics 329 00:17:11.319 --> 00:17:14.240 and Public Policy Center, is the author of Working Class Republican, 330 00:17:14.359 --> 00:17:17.319 a biography of Ronald Reagan and the coalition that he built. 331 00:17:17.599 --> 00:17:20.279 Relevant today or not, we'll talk about that. Is the 332 00:17:20.279 --> 00:17:22.839 host of the podcast Beyond the Polls, which is available 333 00:17:22.920 --> 00:17:27.000 right here at your Ricochetio network and on Sunday. Henrew 334 00:17:27.039 --> 00:17:31.000 was the guy who called the Red Wave strikingly accurate. 335 00:17:32.279 --> 00:17:35.599 Yeah darn you, Henry, I mean, Henry, you had. 336 00:17:35.519 --> 00:17:37.839 To have a strange moment though, when we learned that 337 00:17:37.960 --> 00:17:40.759 Iowa was going to go for Harris for forty seven points. 338 00:17:40.799 --> 00:17:43.839 I think something like that. So your prediction was you 339 00:17:43.839 --> 00:17:45.839 You predicted the New York Post two hundred ninety seven 340 00:17:45.880 --> 00:17:48.319 for Trump at the Electoral College, fifty five Republican seats 341 00:17:48.359 --> 00:17:51.039 in the House, three to seven seat expansion in the 342 00:17:51.240 --> 00:17:56.319 in the the Senate. I think, look pretty good. How'd 343 00:17:56.319 --> 00:17:56.720 you do that? 344 00:17:58.240 --> 00:17:58.519 Oh? 345 00:17:58.599 --> 00:18:01.240 Well, you know, I just I kind of pulled flying 346 00:18:01.279 --> 00:18:02.920 monkeys out of my you know, a lot. 347 00:18:02.799 --> 00:18:08.519 And just gat it. No, you know, I looked at data. 348 00:18:08.599 --> 00:18:10.680 I mean, heaven forbid that we would actually look at 349 00:18:10.759 --> 00:18:13.920 data in this universe rather than vibes or my friends 350 00:18:13.920 --> 00:18:16.759 who are feeding me information. I actually had somebody in 351 00:18:16.759 --> 00:18:18.960 the Harris campaign feed me information. I was going to 352 00:18:19.000 --> 00:18:22.240 be Harris plus five. I was totally wrong. Blah blah blah, 353 00:18:22.279 --> 00:18:24.279 And I got an email at ten thirty night. 354 00:18:24.319 --> 00:18:26.319 I was wrong. Sorry. 355 00:18:27.160 --> 00:18:30.000 The two attributes off Henry Olsen at this hour are one, 356 00:18:30.039 --> 00:18:31.960 he's the man who got it all right, and two 357 00:18:32.000 --> 00:18:34.000 he's a man who hasn't slept for seventy two hours. 358 00:18:34.000 --> 00:18:36.400 Would be my guest by about now, all right, So 359 00:18:37.240 --> 00:18:38.839 we can't be the only people who want to talk 360 00:18:38.839 --> 00:18:41.160 to you in the to get all this sorted out. 361 00:18:41.759 --> 00:18:45.279 So Henry, going into election day, I have all kinds 362 00:18:45.319 --> 00:18:47.240 of things that I want to ask about now that 363 00:18:47.279 --> 00:18:52.039 it's happened. But at the beginning of election day, you 364 00:18:52.119 --> 00:18:55.440 were really out on a ledge and all the polls 365 00:18:55.440 --> 00:18:59.079 had coalesced around it's a tie. Well, Trump maybe up 366 00:18:59.119 --> 00:19:00.880 a little bit, but that within the margin of she 367 00:19:00.960 --> 00:19:04.079 maybe up, but margin. The only person who was out 368 00:19:04.119 --> 00:19:06.359 on a limb, although she went out on the wrong limb, 369 00:19:06.440 --> 00:19:09.599 was Anne Seltzer, who I'd like to hear what you 370 00:19:09.640 --> 00:19:11.599 have to say about that. But you went out on 371 00:19:11.599 --> 00:19:14.400 a limb and got it right. What did you see 372 00:19:14.640 --> 00:19:21.279 about the polls that permitted you to disregard the overwhelming 373 00:19:21.279 --> 00:19:23.319 consensus that it was just going to be a dead heat? 374 00:19:24.559 --> 00:19:28.599 So what I did was I looked underneath the poles. 375 00:19:28.680 --> 00:19:32.759 My podcast is called Beneath the Poles or Beyond the Polls, 376 00:19:32.880 --> 00:19:35.759 And the thing is that the polls, top line results 377 00:19:35.880 --> 00:19:37.279 never give you what you need to know. What you 378 00:19:37.359 --> 00:19:40.759 need to know is contained in the entrails of the poles. 379 00:19:41.440 --> 00:19:43.119 So what I did was I took a look at 380 00:19:43.240 --> 00:19:46.319 cross tabulations for partisan identification. And the reason I did 381 00:19:46.359 --> 00:19:50.880 that is because what we've been seeing in voter registration 382 00:19:51.000 --> 00:19:54.119 data and in polling data is something historic, and Gallop 383 00:19:54.200 --> 00:19:58.160 pointed to this in September, that people were moving to 384 00:19:58.200 --> 00:20:01.680 the Republican Party and abandoning the Demomocratic Party in record numbers. 385 00:20:02.160 --> 00:20:04.880 So I looked at all of the national polls and found, 386 00:20:05.200 --> 00:20:08.640 as they usually do, they agree on what share of 387 00:20:08.640 --> 00:20:10.400 Democrats are going to vote for Harris, what chair of 388 00:20:10.440 --> 00:20:12.279 Republicans are going to vote for Trump, and they have 389 00:20:12.359 --> 00:20:15.960 rough agreement on the share of independence. So if you'd 390 00:20:16.000 --> 00:20:18.319 know that, what you know is that the reason the 391 00:20:18.319 --> 00:20:22.119 polls diverged is because they assumed different things about how 392 00:20:22.119 --> 00:20:25.400 many Republicans and how many Democrats there were in the electorate. 393 00:20:26.039 --> 00:20:29.200 And shockingly, I know this is going to amaze Ricochet leaders. 394 00:20:29.240 --> 00:20:32.440 Most people didn't presume there was going to be more Republicans, 395 00:20:32.920 --> 00:20:34.640 so of course they thought Harris was going to win. 396 00:20:35.680 --> 00:20:38.839 The exit poll, as remodulated this morning, says that it 397 00:20:38.920 --> 00:20:42.559 was an R plus four election. I got it right, 398 00:20:42.640 --> 00:20:45.759 is I followed the data, which is to say, hey, 399 00:20:46.359 --> 00:20:48.799 at worst, it'll be an even election, which is the 400 00:20:48.839 --> 00:20:51.839 best partisan score for Republicans since two thousand and four. 401 00:20:52.200 --> 00:20:55.440