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Speaker 1: Ask not what your country can do for you, at

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what you can do for your mister.

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Speaker 2: Chair down this wall, read my lips. It's the Ricochet

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Podcast with Peter Robinson and Stephen Hayward. I'm James Blonlacks

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and day we talked to Henry also pollster guru who

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got it right.

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Speaker 1: So let's episode is a podcast.

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Speaker 2: You fired, get the healthy.

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Speaker 1: Get here.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to well well, well, well sorry, welcome to the

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Ricochet Podcast. Now we're seven hundred and sixteen James Lilax

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here in Minnesota, where our governor soon will be returning

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to to governate. And I'm joined by Stephen Hayward and

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by what's his name, Peter Robinson. That's right, both of

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them in California, where I imagine the mood might be

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joy or desponded, depending on where you are. Here in Minnesota,

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people are going about their day, smiles in the skyway.

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Life goes on as usual somehow, even though the hob

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nailed boot of imminent militarized authoritarianism as yet to descend

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upon us at any second. Now, and gentlemen, welcome. Were

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you surprised?

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Speaker 3: I was surprised. I was surprised. I had in my head,

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I had thought Pennsylvania might be very, very close. I

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had given him in my mind before the polls closed.

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I'd given him Georgia and North Carolina and Arizona. That

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seemed reasonable to do. But everything else struck me as

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touch and go. So I was just wrong, and I

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was very surprised. I was happily surprised, needless to say, Stephen,

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I was not surprised, and I'm easy to say now, Heyward,

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well no.

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Speaker 1: I'll give you a I'll give you my un I'll

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restate my unscientific opinion I voiced here I don't know

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a month or six weeks ago, which was Trump is

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one of these world historical figures. I don't want to

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say exactly the same, but you know, like Napoleon, like

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de Gaull, who's destined to get the job. That's unscientific,

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but that doesn't mean it's not true. The scientific answer,

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Peter was this. I was watching the polls converging and

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thinking this is weird, and mate Silver said the same thing.

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And I thought Trump is a candidate who is hard

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to pull, and Ronald Reagan was hard to pull. They

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come along once in a while, and despite all the

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pollsters saying we're working really hard to try not to

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be so far off this time. I assumed that even

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if the polling air had been closed by two thirds,

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that still gave Trump a one point lead in the

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popular vote, and that was going to translate to a

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you know, a near sweep. And I think it's actually

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more than that. We'll get on with Henry. And by

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the way, that's the other thing. Darn that guy joining

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us in a few minutes if he didn't have it

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absolutely nailed. And you know, I've known Henry for forty

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years and been following his forecast for twenty years. This

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was his most detailed and most optimistic ever. And I thought, boy,

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you can take it to the bank when Henry is

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that definitive about things, and he turned out to be

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exactly right.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 2: Let me ask you a question. Do you think it

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would have been different if Ron DeSantis had been the candidate?

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Because oh, I don't think. I don't think Ron DeSantis

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would have beat Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 1: You know, you know I wonder about that. First of all,

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I'm actually working on a piece before it came on.

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You know who Democrats most wanted to run against Donald Trump?

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That's why they intervened with the law affair and all

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the other things to boost him. Peter, you may remember

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this is actually James. You may too. This isn't well

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established in history books. Go back to nineteen seventy nine.

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The Democrat Jimmy Carter most wanted to run against was

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Ronald Reagan. We know how that worked out, right. I

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think we're seeing a repeat of that for some of

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the same fundamental reasons is in competence of Democrats and

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judging the mood of the nation, and in misjudging their opposition.

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So I don't know about Pete. I mean, I thought here,

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I'm still somewhat conventional. I thought another candidate would be

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a more certain thing than Trump because of old Trump's baggage.

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But lo and behold, Trump ran ahead of Republicans just

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about everywhere, which wasn't true. It wasn't true in twenty

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sixteen and even twenty twenty, right as you had split

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tickets and whatnot. Some and the fact that he ran

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so strongly everywhere and ahead of a lot of Republican

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candidates tells me that maybe he was the best candidate

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for the cycle after all.

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Speaker 3: In let me see if I get this right. In

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twenty twenty twenty, Yes, twenty twenty, Rob Portman, Have I

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got this right? Or was it twenty sixteen? In any event,

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Rob Portman, Senator from Ohio, won his race by twenty

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one points. This is twenty sixteen. He won by twenty

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one points and Donald Trump won by eight.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 3: This time around Moreno, Bernie Moreno won by half a

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point right, and Trump carried Ohio by six seven eight

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something like that. So Trump was the major figure I

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in the primaries. I supported Ronda Santis, not that anybody

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noticed me too. So I supported Ronda Santis, and I

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just thought, let's the the liabilities of Donald Trump are

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just he upsets people. He just let's move beyond him.

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It's time to move beyond him. Okay, was I right

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or was I wrong? We'll never know. You can't run

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controlled experiments in politics. But the evidence that I was

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wrong is considerable, and it runs as follows. Donald Trump

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swung Hispanics into the Republican Party. Donald Trump. It faries overall,

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I understand we'll ask Henry about this, but overall, even

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among young black men, the black vote isn't up all

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that dramatically. Nationally, But there are places where it really

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jumped to any one points, as I recall in North Carolina,

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could Ron DeSantis have done that? I don't know. Yesterday,

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we're thinking about having our house remodeled, which is it

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turns out in California it takes as you pledge every

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penny you're ever have earned or ever will earned, and

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you still have to wait a year for the permits

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to come through. In any event, we're talking with our Peter.

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Speaker 1: You're going to come visit me on that process and

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I'll show you what you get it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, exactly, Okay, thank you. Anyway, we had our

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general contractor over and this is a guy who works

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with his hands, who works with guys who work with

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their hands, and these are these are working people, and

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you know what we we we talked around the subject

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very gingerly until he discovered because most of his clients

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are not Trump supporters, but until he discovered it was

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me he was talking to. And you know what, he

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and his crews look at Donald Trump and say that's

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our guy, that's our guy. Does anybody look at Rond

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DeSantis and say it with the same kind of just

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automatic visceral.

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Speaker 1: Affiliate.

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Speaker 3: I just don't know.

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Speaker 2: I just don't know, because he doesn't have the galvanic

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dynamism that Trump was displaying in the campaign. You know,

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for an old duffer, he's got the energy. Now I

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think it been if it had been Harris versus Disantis,

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ascensus would have come across has a bit stayed in,

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a bit wonky. He would have been the Ducacus of

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the campaign. And I say this again as a Disanta

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support of went back, but this was different. I was

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stunned and surprise. If you have told me this was

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going to happen a year and a half or so ago,

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I would have told you you're absolutely crazy, because like Peter,

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I would say, he just rubs people the wrong way,

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that he's lost the independence, that women hate him, all

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of these things. He got more women, suburban women I

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think went forty one forty seven for Trump, and he

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increased his numbers there. So how much of that is

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due to just a weary attitude towards people's perceptions of

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the economy and how much of that actually is due

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to the man himself? And the more that I look

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at it, the more that I think that it is

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due to the man himself, And it's not a detailed, granular,

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atomic assessment to the man.

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Speaker 4: He really isn't.

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Speaker 2: It's just a general wide perception. I mean, And this

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is what politics does. This is what politics is all about.

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Most people don't go into the voting booth with a

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very you know, with a list of things about their

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candidate in agate type. They don't. It's it's it's it's

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a gut, it's a swing correct moment, the moment that

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he got winged in the ear and stood up and

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and pumped his fist, I thought, well, that's it. I'd

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gone from you know, a year and a half ago

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saying there's absolutely no way it's insanity to run the

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man to well, that's the moment right there. That's that's

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the tr bully moment. That is that is going to

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do it. Uh And in the end, I think it did.

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So another question because I mean a lot of what

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we're going to say has been shoot over again and

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again and again and again. But I am interested in

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the what's next thing, because there's two there's what next.

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There's the inevitable disappointment that a lot of the conservatives

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are going to feel with Donald trumb but he does

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something they don't like, and the satisfaction and the perhaps

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surprise when he does something that nobody ever thought that

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anybody would. We'll see. But I'm interested in how they

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left the progus, the liberals, those groups are reassessing and

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reevaluating themselves because what I'm reading two things. One, well,

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it's because Harris backed away from her twenty nineteen stuff.

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She wasn't progressive, but it proved true progressive ism has

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never been tried. If she'd done that, she would have

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got everybody. And then people who have a more moderate

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advantage are saying, look, you may not like these people

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now because you've lost them, but there is a reason

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that you did, and it is a wise thing to

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do to look at why groups upon which you had

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historically depended moved away. What is it about your message

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and in getting through? And to me it would seem

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that yes, inflation and immigration, those were the big things

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that were driving people and pushing people to Trump because

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they know what his instincts are. But it also is

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sort of a general, incoherent, sometimes specific rejection of a

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cultural drift that people don't like because they regarded as

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anathema to America. They regarded as as a strange efflorescent

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that flared out of the ground in twenty twenty and

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like a plume of vesuvius, darkened disguise and contaminated everything

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that it touched, so that what should have been and

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could have been a national conversation about a variety of

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issues turned into an ideological campaign that sought to upend

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a lot of things that people believed that characterized this culture.

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Speaker 3: And that was your brilliant riff, James of what was

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it three weeks ago, four weeks ago, five weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: I repeating myself, I'm repeating, no, no.

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Speaker 3: No, no, Actually you're not You're not quite as good

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as you were the first time through.

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Speaker 1: Well, you did a critic You did.

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Speaker 3: A kind of catechism. I really thought, In fact, I

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was so I would like to ask our producer Perry

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to make a note of this. Let's go back and

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see if we can not at the moment, but we

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should put it up on the website. We should have

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a transcribe because it was beautiful. Give James a chance

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to edit if he wants to. But it was a

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kind of catechism of the things we know. Trump won't

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do you remember that, and he won't he won't come

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after decent people. He won't raise taxes, he won't do this.

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He won't do but he won't he won't try to

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tell you that your that your daughter should accept, should

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put up with men, young men in her locker room. Right,

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Remember that it was I think the cultural stuff was

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really powerful.

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Speaker 2: Well, and again not to hijack this thing entirely, because

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I'll hand it to you both after this I as

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a form of masochism and enjoyment. Listen the next day

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to a five hour podcast done by Brits about the

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election as it was happening all myness. It's a politics

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show called The Rest is Politics, and it's part of

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a series of shows The Rest is History, the Rest

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is Entertainment. But the reason that I listened to it

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was because one of the people on the panel was

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Dominic Sandbrook, who is from the rest of history and

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is a scholar of American elections to the point where

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he is so steeped in nineteen sixty eight and Eugene

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McCarthy that he can rattle off at the top of

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his head the entirety of McCarthy's campaign. He went to Minnesota,

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You interviewed the guys and just great, fantastic guy, Britt Witty.

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He was the only one on the panel who said

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what they went around and asked for predictions. He was

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the only one in dead Trump because he had a keen,

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he had an instinctive understanding of what drives American elections.

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And the rest of them were all appalled that anybody could,

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that any thinking person could talk about Harris's imminent victory

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in any other way than to welcome it with open arms, because,

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as they said, listen to that speech that Michelle.

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Speaker 1: Michelle Obama made for her.

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Speaker 2: Oh and Sandbrook would tell them, look, I hate to

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tell you this, but that doesn't matter. It doesn't matter.

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People don't follow politics or no politics in the way

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that you and I do. They don't, And so they

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were absolutely stunned. The next day, I listened to the

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next day's podcast as well. Of course they were all

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experts on why Harris lost the next day, but it

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was that same sort of walled off in a bubble.

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So people on Twitter are saying, hey, Twitter, if you

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just if you just hung around on Twitter, you would

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have known that Trump was going to win, Which makes

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me think I'm not so sure about that. And it

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may be possible that Twitter is a bubble as well

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for the right, but they just got it. They just

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work correct this time because it was on the right.

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So do you think then we're going to have a

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productive conversation about what the future of the left in

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this country needs to be?

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Speaker 3: He said, not yet yet.

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Speaker 1: No, no, no yet, no.

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Speaker 3: I think there's precedent for this. Actually, I think we

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can actually look at history and say how long it

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takes for the Party of the Left to rethink matters

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and they have to be defeated three times. Margaret Thatcher

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had to win three times before the Labor Party in

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Britain began the search, the soul searching that would lead

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to Tony Blair. Tony Blair was a catastrophe in my judgment,

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although for all the opposite I tend to think he

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was a catastrophe for reasons opposite to those that people

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in Britain think he was a catastrophe. But he was

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a much more moderate figure and much more electable figure

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than Michael Foot and Neil Kinnick and all the people

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who were up against Margaret Thatcher. Ronald Reagan had to

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win twice, and George H. W. Bush had to win once.

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That makes three defeats for the Democrats. Before that centrist

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Bill Clinton appears and wins. They have to be clobbered,

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not You can't get their attention by hitting them over

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the head with the two by four once.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this reminds me of the old joke the neo

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conservatives used to tell was the we are moving from

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left to the right in the seventies about the preacher

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in church who says, oh, I got mugged the other day.

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It took my wall, I got a bruise, you know,

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but I want you all to know that I still have,

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you know, nothing but kindness and forgiving and compassionate thoughts

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towards you know, people who are driven to crime. And

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some lady in the back of the church says, mug

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him again. And this is what has to happen, right Look,

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the Democrats are in you know, we can do the

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seven stages of brief whoever many of they are there

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in the denial stage right now, and they're very good

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at that and lashing out, of course at you know,

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white women don't do their job. Who knew that Julia

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Robert said was not going to work, and that Taylor

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Swift cancel will sway millions of votes, right, and they'll

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have a circular firing squad. But I keep quiet, Peter.

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I mean back to that eighties example, as early as

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nineteen eighty eight. There's a great book about this from

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I think it was a minority Party by Peter Brown,

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a reporter for Scripts, I think an African American reporter,

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by the way, and he reported on how throughout the

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eighty eight campaign there was Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton trying

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to persuade you caucus, No, you have to support the

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pledge of allegiance, right, and he said, I think we

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don't have to distance ourself from Jesse Jackson. Clinton said

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this on the record, we don't have to distance ourself

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from Jesse Jackson. We need to disagree with Jesse Jackson.

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Four years later you got the sister Soldier moment and

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all the rest of that. Harris was utterly incapable of

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the slightest gesture. What here in California listeners may know,

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we had our Proposition thirty six to re equivalize shoplifting.

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It passed by two to one. Harris would not take

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a position on it when asked about it, right, and

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that just you know Clinton would have that would have

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slam dunk for Clinton. He would have gotten that. So

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we're gonna have to see if we're going to another

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Clinton moment for the Democrats or not.

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Speaker 2: Yes, if you can't come out in favor of putting

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people whose shoplift away in jail after they walk into

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the Walgreens and Philly Aft Black fifty five, you know,

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court trash bag full of cosmetics. We're not exactly talking

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to jeann Vell john situation here, but she didn't but

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she didn't want to be javert despite the fact that

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she ran on her previous existence as anyway, enough of me.

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Doctor Henry Henry Olsen, a Senior Fellow with the Ethics

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and Public Policy Center, is the author of Working Class Republican,

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a biography of Ronald Reagan and the coalition that he built.

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Relevant today or not, we'll talk about that. Is the

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host of the podcast Beyond the Polls, which is available

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right here at your Ricochetio network and on Sunday. Henrew

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was the guy who called the Red Wave strikingly accurate.

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Speaker 1: Yeah darn you, Henry, I mean, Henry, you had.

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Speaker 2: To have a strange moment though, when we learned that

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Iowa was going to go for Harris for forty seven points.

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I think something like that. So your prediction was you

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You predicted the New York Post two hundred ninety seven

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for Trump at the Electoral College, fifty five Republican seats

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in the House, three to seven seat expansion in the

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in the the Senate. I think, look pretty good. How'd

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you do that?

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Speaker 1: Oh?

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Speaker 5: Well, you know, I just I kind of pulled flying

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monkeys out of my you know, a lot.

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Speaker 4: And just gat it. No, you know, I looked at data.

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Speaker 5: I mean, heaven forbid that we would actually look at

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data in this universe rather than vibes or my friends

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who are feeding me information. I actually had somebody in

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the Harris campaign feed me information. I was going to

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be Harris plus five. I was totally wrong. Blah blah blah,

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And I got an email at ten thirty night.

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Speaker 4: I was wrong. Sorry.

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Speaker 3: The two attributes off Henry Olsen at this hour are one,

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he's the man who got it all right, and two

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he's a man who hasn't slept for seventy two hours.

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Would be my guest by about now, all right, So

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we can't be the only people who want to talk

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to you in the to get all this sorted out.

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So Henry, going into election day, I have all kinds

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of things that I want to ask about now that

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it's happened. But at the beginning of election day, you

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were really out on a ledge and all the polls

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had coalesced around it's a tie. Well, Trump maybe up

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a little bit, but that within the margin of she

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maybe up, but margin. The only person who was out

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on a limb, although she went out on the wrong limb,

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was Anne Seltzer, who I'd like to hear what you

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have to say about that. But you went out on

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a limb and got it right. What did you see

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about the polls that permitted you to disregard the overwhelming

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consensus that it was just going to be a dead heat?

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Speaker 5: So what I did was I looked underneath the poles.

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My podcast is called Beneath the Poles or Beyond the Polls,

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And the thing is that the polls, top line results

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never give you what you need to know. What you

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need to know is contained in the entrails of the poles.

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So what I did was I took a look at

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cross tabulations for partisan identification. And the reason I did

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that is because what we've been seeing in voter registration

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data and in polling data is something historic, and Gallop

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pointed to this in September, that people were moving to

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the Republican Party and abandoning the Demomocratic Party in record numbers.

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So I looked at all of the national polls and found,

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as they usually do, they agree on what share of

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Democrats are going to vote for Harris, what chair of

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Republicans are going to vote for Trump, and they have

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rough agreement on the share of independence. So if you'd

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know that, what you know is that the reason the

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polls diverged is because they assumed different things about how

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many Republicans and how many Democrats there were in the electorate.

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And shockingly, I know this is going to amaze Ricochet leaders.

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Most people didn't presume there was going to be more Republicans,

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so of course they thought Harris was going to win.

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The exit poll, as remodulated this morning, says that it

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was an R plus four election. I got it right,

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is I followed the data, which is to say, hey,

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at worst, it'll be an even election, which is the

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best partisan score for Republicans since two thousand and four.

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It's likely to be an R plus election, which will

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be the first time since nineteen thirty two. I was

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willing to follow the data. Somebody else was willing to do.

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Speaker 3: It wasn't eighty four and R plus hadn't. Voter registration

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moved towards the Republicans, at least briefly. No, no, no, no.

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Speaker 5: Ronald Reagan and every the thing is you'd win elections

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by winning Reagan Democrats, people who still thought of themselves

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as Democrats but would vote for Reagan. That's why you

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had split tickets for twenty years, is people who would say,

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I'm a Reagan Democrat, will vote for Democrat per cent,

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and I'll vote for the Republican for the executive office.

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And it never got even though on partisan surveys.

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Speaker 4: You look at partisan surveys.

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Speaker 5: Ronald Reagan changed America, but he changed America by removing

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the Democrats decades long twenty to thirty point advantage in

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voter identification and replacing it with what we've seen for

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the last thirty years, D plus two to D plus nine.

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That meant Republicans could fight, but they were still fighting uphill.

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This is the first election Democrats have had to fight uphill.

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They didn't expect it. They should have, they didn't know

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how to do it. And what I was saying in

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the run up to the election is the entire for

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three generations, every Democrat politician instinctively knew all you had

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to do was rally the base and split independence and

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you win. Aamara Harris won ninety ninety five percent or

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ninety four percent of Democrats and one independence by two points,

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and she's going to lose the electorate by three two

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to three percent point. Why because there's more Republicans now,

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Rally the base and split the independence no longer works

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for Democrats for the first time since nineteen thirty two.

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Speaker 3: Amazing, Okay, Henry, So why was why did this happen? Well,

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the dominant Republican was Donald J. For genius Trump. What.

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Let me remind you of a poll, although you, being you,

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you'll know what poll I'm quoting, and I being me

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can't remember which poll it was. But after the first debate,

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after the debate, the Trump Biden debate, I found it

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so striking that there was a poll that showed seven

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percent thought Biden had won the debate, which would lead

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you to suppose ninety three percent thought Trump did no, no, no, no.

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Only forty four percent gave the credit to Trump, and

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the rest almost half just said I don't know, which

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suggested to me that half the country hated that son

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of a gun so much they weren't going to give

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him credit for anything. And yet while this disliked figure

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was the dominant Republican as far as I can tell,

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as far as I can remember, correct me on this,

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the election results the day before yesterday, where the first

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time he has broken fifty percent anywhere, including in any poll.

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This guy never cracked fifty percent. And yet it was

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Donald J. Trump under whom this movement toward the Republican Party,

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this historic movement toward the Republican Party, took place. Make

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me understand that one.

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Speaker 5: So some of you know, I've been arguing in favor

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of a populist blue collarship for the Republican Party for

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about fifteen years.

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Speaker 3: Yes, And for about thirteen of those years it was

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really annoying to me, Henry, I thought, come on, be

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more libertarian. What are you doing to us?

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Speaker 4: I welcome your conversion, Peter.

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Speaker 5: There's always room in the church for new converts. Donald

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Trump is the graphic novel version of what I was

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going for. And why do I say the graphic novel version.

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I think for obvious reasons. And it remains true that

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on election day Donald Trump had a forty six percent

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approval rate, favorability rating according to the exit poll, below

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fifty percent.

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Speaker 4: He still doesn't have fifty percent.

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Speaker 5: But what's happened is that because he embraced, for whatever reasons,

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conservative populist fusion, he has attracted the blue collar voters

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who were always there for the picking, if only you

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got rid of the notion that they were late in

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Christian libertyrians, which was the dominant theme of the Republican

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Party for decades, once you understood that they weren't latent

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Christian fundamentalists libertarians, but they are actually the same sort

475
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:13,680
of people who wouldn't see a contradiction between liking Franklin

476
00:25:13,759 --> 00:25:15,960
Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan, which is what Ronald Reagan.

477
00:25:16,039 --> 00:25:18,079
Speaker 3: Such is what Ronald And by the way, that was

478
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:21,599
what Ronald Reagan was. He always Admiredgan Roosevelt.

479
00:25:21,279 --> 00:25:23,160
Speaker 5: That's right, And that was the whole thesis of my

480
00:25:23,279 --> 00:25:26,000
book and the working class conservative, you know, which was that. Look,

481
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:27,799
what you have to understand is that Ronald Reagan was

482
00:25:27,839 --> 00:25:29,400
not Franklin Lordswaltz's opponent.

483
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:31,880
Speaker 4: He was an interpreter right.

484
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:36,039
Speaker 5: He introduced the idea of liberty into the the Tree

485
00:25:36,079 --> 00:25:37,559
of Liberty, into the Garden of rosevel.

486
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:41,640
Speaker 3: Watch Steve Hayward's face, the Great Reagan's historian. Now you're

487
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:43,599
making Steve feel a little queasy.

488
00:25:43,279 --> 00:25:45,559
Speaker 1: Henry, Well, no, not time. Henry and I have been

489
00:25:45,599 --> 00:25:49,160
for this argument. I think you overstate your point a bit,

490
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:51,200
but it's very arguable, and I think you know, compelling

491
00:25:51,279 --> 00:25:52,200
and by the way, so.

492
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 3: Overstated to get it through to me.

493
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:59,079
Speaker 1: Well, okay, exactly, I'm on team Henry for.

494
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,680
Speaker 3: Henry distinguished, distinguished Trump from Reagan.

495
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,759
Speaker 5: So what I want to say is that because Trump

496
00:26:05,839 --> 00:26:08,319
was able to do that, he was able to get

497
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:10,440
people to look differently. And of course what that has

498
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:13,759
meant is that people who didn't want a working class party,

499
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:18,240
people who wanted the Republican Party to continue to be

500
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:24,200
a version of country club slash hooverright Republicans, the overlap

501
00:26:24,279 --> 00:26:29,000
between people who you know, who lionized the captains of

502
00:26:29,039 --> 00:26:31,839
industry and lionized the captains of finances better than the

503
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:35,559
rest of us. Said, Well, this isn't my party anymore.

504
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:37,519
I'm going to go to the party that actually wants

505
00:26:37,559 --> 00:26:42,119
to say that people who have achieved things through education and.

506
00:26:42,079 --> 00:26:44,759
Speaker 4: Finance are better than the rest of you. And they're

507
00:26:44,759 --> 00:26:45,400
now Democrats.

508
00:26:45,519 --> 00:26:47,799
Speaker 5: That's the party of the elite, that's the party of

509
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:53,039
They are now the demographic equivalent of the old Republican

510
00:26:53,079 --> 00:26:56,640
Party after the Great Depression. And so Trump attracted these

511
00:26:56,680 --> 00:27:02,640
people in droves by making the Republican by breaking the

512
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:09,039
Republican party stranglehold, the stranglehold of Christian fundamentalists, libertarian neo

513
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:13,680
con orthodoxy, and saying, actually, with the Conservative by in

514
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:19,880
from new elements into this, we can actually expand our coalitions.

515
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:24,000
So he created the possibility for expansion. And then the

516
00:27:24,039 --> 00:27:28,480
Democrats have driven people away that Americans don't you know,

517
00:27:28,519 --> 00:27:34,200
Americans don't want Christian fundamentalist, neo libertarian, neocon but they

518
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:41,039
also don't want progressively secular, neo socialist internationalism. It's like,

519
00:27:41,079 --> 00:27:46,200
can I have something that's like conservative, that's American, that's

520
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:50,359
like Reagan, that's like Roosevelt, that's like McKinley. That synthesis there,

521
00:27:50,839 --> 00:27:53,839
and so there's a lot of people who did to Trump.

522
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,279
The reason Trump won is because he won the double haters,

523
00:27:56,279 --> 00:27:58,960
which were much smaller, but they still existed. He won

524
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,519
the double haters by nearly thirty points. So what that

525
00:28:02,559 --> 00:28:07,119
means is that first, the Democrats have just destroyed their brand. Secondly,

526
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:10,319
Trump has made the Republican brand acceptable to more people.

527
00:28:10,519 --> 00:28:13,599
And third there's a massive opportunity to expand the Republican

528
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:16,559
brand that Ronald Reagan won in nineteen eighty by getting

529
00:28:16,559 --> 00:28:19,200
people who still thought they were Democrats but didn't like

530
00:28:19,519 --> 00:28:21,480
the drift in the seventies to say, I'm going to

531
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:26,240
give this guy a chance. Four years success, they said Republicans.

532
00:28:26,279 --> 00:28:29,079
Speaker 3: Now Donald Trump over to Steve in a second, But

533
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:31,440
I just want to make sure I'm underhearing you correctly.

534
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,720
This is not a one off. This is not tied

535
00:28:34,759 --> 00:28:37,319
to the person of Donald J. Trump. This is an

536
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:42,440
opportunity to begin a golden age like the Golden Age

537
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:47,319
of the nineteen eighties, a national renewal, economic expansion, a

538
00:28:47,359 --> 00:28:50,000
political realignment to the center to.

539
00:28:51,799 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 4: Yes, you're nodding, bingo, bingo, bingo, how's he? How's he? Yes,

540
00:28:55,279 --> 00:28:56,480
that's exactly right.

541
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:03,480
Speaker 2: In me. I have a six hundred ship navy as well.

542
00:29:03,839 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 5: You can have a six hundred chip Navy you can have. Look,

543
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:08,759
this is the thing is. This is a synthesis.

544
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:14,839
Speaker 4: This is not pure populism. This is not the.

545
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 5: Old guard intellectual triad. This is not country club republicanism.

546
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:23,720
This is a new synthesis that has all of these

547
00:29:23,759 --> 00:29:27,160
things thrown together. And Donald Trump will not provide the

548
00:29:27,279 --> 00:29:29,920
unifying thesis for that the way Reagan did, and the

549
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:34,440
way Reagan's thesis was either misunderstood or consciously ignored by

550
00:29:34,519 --> 00:29:37,039
most of the people who call themselves Reagan Knight. But

551
00:29:37,839 --> 00:29:43,200
that jd Vance well, Jdvance well, because jd Vance has

552
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:44,599
been thinking about it for years.

553
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:48,359
Speaker 1: Yeah. So Henry, first of all, listeners should know that

554
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:51,039
I've known you for forty years, which means I have

555
00:29:51,079 --> 00:29:53,039
all the receipts and what a hopeless geek you are.

556
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,160
And if you think listeners Henry's been.

557
00:29:56,039 --> 00:29:57,519
Speaker 5: Want to tell them what I was doing on the

558
00:29:57,519 --> 00:29:59,400
beach in Houston in nineteen eighty eight.

559
00:29:59,559 --> 00:30:02,599
Speaker 1: No, he's about to mention this being late nights and

560
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,440
dubious establishments. But you have the reciprocal receipts on me

561
00:30:05,559 --> 00:30:05,759
for that.

562
00:30:05,839 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 2: So well, hold on, I say, let me just see it.

563
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,680
Let me interrupt for a second, just to know what

564
00:30:10,759 --> 00:30:13,240
sort of cosmopolitan globalist.

565
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:14,039
Speaker 1: We are having here, Henry?

566
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 2: Behind you? Do I see on your shelf a collection

567
00:30:17,359 --> 00:30:23,400
of vintage Michelin guide books the degree? So you so

568
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:26,359
you've been around that thing we call the world? Are

569
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:28,160
any of them European?

570
00:30:29,279 --> 00:30:31,839
Speaker 1: Oh, James, I can explain that.

571
00:30:31,599 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 2: We found we found him out, we've found out of

572
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:34,599
both man.

573
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 1: No, no what, Henry. What it means is, I'll help you, Henry,

574
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:40,039
to save your voice. It's that's how you decode the

575
00:30:40,119 --> 00:30:46,599
demographics and of a foreign uh foreign electoral districts, right right, yes,

576
00:30:47,079 --> 00:30:50,599
thank you. I have been and used bookstores with Henry.

577
00:30:50,599 --> 00:30:53,400
When he finds an atlas or you know, yeah, using

578
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:55,519
an atlas that he grabs and realizes how it can

579
00:30:55,559 --> 00:30:58,960
be used for election interpretation, doesn't matter what year really

580
00:30:59,000 --> 00:30:59,640
even Okay?

581
00:31:00,759 --> 00:31:03,759
Speaker 5: I wrote a great piece on how the Polish elector

582
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:06,599
can be completely understood by the Tripork type division of

583
00:31:06,599 --> 00:31:07,599
seventeen ninety five?

584
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:12,720
Speaker 2: You did, I don't I think that goes without saying though, yeah,

585
00:31:13,039 --> 00:31:14,319
tell us something we didn't know.

586
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,079
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, all right, I do have three or four

587
00:31:17,119 --> 00:31:22,160
specific questions about election analysis, but I do I want

588
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:25,039
to pick up where we left off, which was, you know,

589
00:31:25,119 --> 00:31:28,240
the ideological aspects of this election, but you have been

590
00:31:28,839 --> 00:31:31,279
on some of the non ideological aspects. Let me go

591
00:31:31,279 --> 00:31:32,559
at it this way. You know, this is one of

592
00:31:32,599 --> 00:31:36,440
those weeks when I love paraphrasing Conan the barbarian, you know,

593
00:31:36,559 --> 00:31:38,880
the what is best in life to crush your enemies,

594
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:42,160
see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of

595
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:44,640
their women on the view right, That's what I'm doing

596
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:47,400
this speak. And you know, so I picked up the

597
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:50,079
Nation magazine and of course they're having a full fledged

598
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:53,519
freak out. And there's an interesting article by Jeete here.

599
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,640
That's the guy's name Jet here. He sounds like a E. G.

600
00:31:56,799 --> 00:32:01,119
Woodhouse invention for Fleet Street. But after attacking Democrats for

601
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:04,240
not being progressive enough. There here's the following couple sentences.

602
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:05,680
I want to read you, Henry, and then have you

603
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:09,960
taken away? Here's git here. The key to understanding the

604
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:12,960
Trump era is that the real divide in America is

605
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:16,440
not between left and right, but between pro system and

606
00:32:16,559 --> 00:32:21,440
anti system politics. Pro system politics is the bipartisan consensus

607
00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:25,119
of establishment Democrats and Republicans. It's the politics of NATO

608
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:29,400
and other military alliances. Of trade agreements and of difference

609
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:35,200
to economists. Trump stands for no fixed theology, no fixed ideology,

610
00:32:35,319 --> 00:32:39,160
but rather a general thumbing of the nose at this consensus.

611
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:42,039
I thought, does get here? Just realize he endorsed Donald Trump,

612
00:32:42,599 --> 00:32:45,200
and that sounds similar to what you've been said about

613
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:46,359
the inns and the outs, Henry.

614
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:47,079
Speaker 4: Yeah.

615
00:32:47,119 --> 00:32:48,599
Speaker 5: I was just gonna say, I'm glad that he read

616
00:32:48,599 --> 00:32:52,079
my article and unheard. It's not left versus right, it's

617
00:32:52,079 --> 00:32:55,359
in versus house, which I wrote in twenty seventeen. Right. Yeah,

618
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:58,720
I mean there is a leftist populism, and basically that

619
00:32:58,839 --> 00:33:01,359
is what he's calling for, is a leftist rejection of

620
00:33:01,359 --> 00:33:03,920
the system. This is lef Moon since UMIs under Jean

621
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:09,160
Roumin National in France. This is budnizadavarangnestion in Germany. This

622
00:33:09,279 --> 00:33:13,119
is the Bernie Sanders revolution. This is Corbinista, which is

623
00:33:13,359 --> 00:33:16,400
we can be leftist populist. The enemy is globalism, the

624
00:33:16,519 --> 00:33:20,359
enemy is capitalism, the enemy is Christianity, and so forth.

625
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:23,319
There is a leftist populism and that's what is.

626
00:33:23,319 --> 00:33:26,839
Speaker 3: How do you define populism, You're I'm confused, I confess.

627
00:33:27,599 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 5: So I wrote an article in twenty eleven for National Affairs,

628
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:33,960
where I set out kind of an academic four part

629
00:33:34,039 --> 00:33:37,519
tests which was meant to not just answer populism far age,

630
00:33:37,559 --> 00:33:40,519
but tie it to what they call demagoguerie in the

631
00:33:40,599 --> 00:33:46,720
ancient Greece. Populism is four parts. Populism is the identification

632
00:33:47,039 --> 00:33:51,960
of a people as a people, the belief that a

633
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:56,799
elite has acquired power at the expense of the people.

634
00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:00,839
That the third part three, that the elite is unjustly

635
00:34:01,079 --> 00:34:03,240
depriving the people of that.

636
00:34:03,319 --> 00:34:04,799
Speaker 4: Which they are justly entitled to.

637
00:34:04,839 --> 00:34:07,079
Speaker 5: And that can be status, that can be political rights,

638
00:34:07,119 --> 00:34:10,199
that can be wealth, that can be any number of things.

639
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:14,039
And part four is that the people, in the name

640
00:34:14,079 --> 00:34:18,920
of itself must dispossess the elites and reassert rightful power

641
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:22,159
in their name and address all wrongs. That is populism,

642
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:26,239
but the key identification of elite as an unjust minority,

643
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:32,079
tyrannizing a just majority and so good. Populism treats the

644
00:34:32,119 --> 00:34:36,639
elites as adversaries who have rights. That's what Jefferson did

645
00:34:36,679 --> 00:34:39,519
with the Federalists. That's what Roosevelt did, even though he

646
00:34:39,559 --> 00:34:42,760
called them economic royalists. He didn't kill Andrew Mellon or

647
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:46,880
exile them. Bad populists kill, exile and deprive political rights

648
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:48,719
of their enemy, and that's how you lead to tyranny.

649
00:34:49,079 --> 00:34:52,360
So America, i argued, has always been populous. In fact,

650
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:56,360
it's the key to our renewal. Is populism rises up

651
00:34:56,639 --> 00:34:59,639
identifies an unjust elite that has seized power.

652
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:03,639
Speaker 4: That's and some minority you've re seize power. The balance

653
00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:04,239
is restored.

654
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:08,519
Speaker 5: Donald Trump's in this long standing two and a half

655
00:35:08,679 --> 00:35:09,559
century tradition.

656
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:12,719
Speaker 1: Yeah. So look, I have a simpler and shorter definition,

657
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,239
which is populism is when the wrong people or party

658
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:18,000
wins an election. And that's why, that's why it can

659
00:35:18,079 --> 00:35:20,599
be left populism. Now it's you know, more right populism.

660
00:35:20,679 --> 00:35:23,000
But I think that's that's my shorter version of all that.

661
00:35:24,159 --> 00:35:26,159
But let me all right, So this leads to the

662
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:30,119
first sort of thirty thousand foot level evaluation of things.

663
00:35:30,159 --> 00:35:32,159
You know, a lot of our enthusiastic friends are saying

664
00:35:32,599 --> 00:35:36,679
this is a landslide, and on the surface, it doesn't

665
00:35:36,679 --> 00:35:39,000
look like the Nixon or Reagan landslides of seventy two

666
00:35:39,039 --> 00:35:41,599
and eighty four. It's not you know, fifty eight, forty two,

667
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:45,079
it's not four hundred and fifty electoral votes. However, you

668
00:35:45,119 --> 00:35:48,960
look below the hood and you see that Trump improved

669
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:51,360
the most in some of the deepest blue states. You know,

670
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,079
he cut the Democratic margin from four years ago by

671
00:35:54,280 --> 00:36:00,280
half in California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and and

672
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:02,920
I guess Trump did better in the Bronx than in Manhattan.

673
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:07,039
This ought to terrify Democrats, and that to me does

674
00:36:07,159 --> 00:36:10,159
lend some versimilitude to the landslide narrative. Where do you

675
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:10,880
come down on that?

676
00:36:11,599 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 5: We are one step away from the landslide election. Okay,

677
00:36:15,519 --> 00:36:19,480
the landslide election is all of that is true and

678
00:36:19,559 --> 00:36:22,079
the little things like remember in twenty twenty, people are

679
00:36:22,079 --> 00:36:23,760
talking about the Hispanic shift to.

680
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 4: Trump, Okay, which was real.

681
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:29,360
Speaker 5: Trump still lost the Rio Grand Valley despite a lord shift.

682
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:32,559
He still lost Miami Dade County, despite a lordship. He

683
00:36:32,639 --> 00:36:37,039
carried every county, every county in the historically Democrat Rea.

684
00:36:37,159 --> 00:36:39,840
This is where Lyndon Johnson stole the nineteen forty eight

685
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:40,519
Senate election.

686
00:36:41,079 --> 00:36:43,280
Speaker 4: Every county now voted for Donald Trump.

687
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 5: Is there that our ninety nine ninety nine percent Hispanic

688
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:51,719
and Donald Trump won it? And he won Miami Day

689
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:55,280
by eleven points. Okay, so what needs to happen. What

690
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:59,159
needs to happen is you need to bring the people

691
00:36:59,159 --> 00:37:01,840
who doubted into the full Ronald Reagan won fit with

692
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:06,480
fifty one percent in nineteen eighty John Anderson got seven.

693
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:10,480
Ronald Reagan got fifty nine percent in nineteen eighty four.

694
00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:15,000
Anderson voters and some Democrats came back because it was success.

695
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 4: What did uh you know?

696
00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:21,719
Speaker 5: Franklin Roosevelt brought people into the African Americans voted Republican

697
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:24,360
in nineteen thirty two, they voted Democrat in nineteen thirty six.

698
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:28,800
New people came on board because success allowed for conversions.

699
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:30,400
There will be many more of you in four years

700
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:32,800
if Donald Trump plays his role up here right, more

701
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:35,960
doubters who are now burg urvant populist.

702
00:37:36,039 --> 00:37:38,800
Speaker 4: I'm glad to have. Can't wait for who were.

703
00:37:38,679 --> 00:37:42,880
Speaker 5: To raise or who were to raise the flag of populism.

704
00:37:43,119 --> 00:37:45,519
I'm sure Brandy is burning.

705
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:46,679
Speaker 1: I could do that.

706
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:50,199
Speaker 4: A populist avatar in Dabosh.

707
00:37:50,679 --> 00:37:53,960
Speaker 1: Yes, now you know one person we haven't heard. I

708
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:55,800
can't resist this one person we haven't heard from the

709
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:57,800
last couple of days, although maybe I've just missed it.

710
00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:00,800
Is our good friend and Colter. You've been on her show.

711
00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:03,079
She's been on this show, and you know Ann's been

712
00:38:03,119 --> 00:38:06,519
saying for years now, I don't see why Republicans can't

713
00:38:06,519 --> 00:38:10,000
get over this fantasy they're going to attract Hispanic voters.

714
00:38:10,079 --> 00:38:12,679
Never gonna happen. What are you going to say to

715
00:38:12,679 --> 00:38:17,920
Anne if you get her on the phone.

716
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:21,119
Speaker 5: Look and had me on her podcast precisely to say,

717
00:38:21,159 --> 00:38:24,639
I'm the problem. I say, we need back in Hispanic

718
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:26,599
voters when what we should that we can't get them.

719
00:38:26,599 --> 00:38:28,320
What we should do is concentrate on whites. What I'm

720
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:30,480
gonna say is too Badso said you were wrong?

721
00:38:30,519 --> 00:38:32,199
Speaker 4: I was right? At what point?

722
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:32,639
Speaker 2: Yeah?

723
00:38:32,639 --> 00:38:35,039
Speaker 5: I remember that it was a good man that you

724
00:38:35,159 --> 00:38:37,599
were wrong and I was right. Well, we could when

725
00:38:37,599 --> 00:38:39,280
you can do that, we can have a conversation. But

726
00:38:40,559 --> 00:38:47,159
she's she's just plain wrong. It was always there. It

727
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:49,880
was there in the puss, but you couldn't do it

728
00:38:50,159 --> 00:38:53,119
on the old orthodoxy because they you know, the theory

729
00:38:53,159 --> 00:38:55,039
of the autopsy after.

730
00:38:55,079 --> 00:38:57,519
Speaker 3: Yes, yes, yes, this is goo ahead, go ahead, go ahead,

731
00:38:57,519 --> 00:38:57,840
this is.

732
00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:00,360
Speaker 4: The theory of the autopsy. Was there are these bear years?

733
00:39:01,559 --> 00:39:04,679
Speaker 5: Hispanics should like us, but we're banned on immigration, so

734
00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:07,440
remove the barrier they're going to vote for us. No,

735
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:12,599
they understood what that Republican party was about, which was

736
00:39:12,639 --> 00:39:15,800
for capital and wealth over labor and work, and they said, no,

737
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:18,320
we don't want that. And I had polled data to

738
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:21,360
prove that. And what Donald Trump says, actually there's no

739
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:24,480
artificial distinction between capital and what.

740
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:25,360
Speaker 2: I guess what.

741
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:27,679
Speaker 4: That's the brillancoln McKinley error.

742
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:30,480
Speaker 5: Republicans the only time Republicans have ever been a majority

743
00:39:30,519 --> 00:39:32,760
party in this country, you know, And so it's like

744
00:39:34,119 --> 00:39:37,039
it was always there. All you had to do was

745
00:39:37,159 --> 00:39:42,039
remove the blinders that orthodoxy and self interest placed in

746
00:39:42,079 --> 00:39:45,880
your way, and Donald having been unpolitical, never had the

747
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:46,440
blinders on.

748
00:39:47,159 --> 00:39:50,039
Speaker 1: Well, the twenty twelve aftermath just proves you should never

749
00:39:50,119 --> 00:39:53,599
leave an autopsy to morticians. That's really how that happened,

750
00:39:53,599 --> 00:39:55,920
I think, right, let me ask you.

751
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:58,199
Speaker 4: I'd like to say the autopsy was dead on arrival.

752
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:04,480
Speaker 1: A couple of questions about the exit polling. You know,

753
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:06,519
I saw the early exit polls come out, and also

754
00:40:06,679 --> 00:40:11,039
one particular novel I think U used of them. But

755
00:40:11,519 --> 00:40:13,320
when the first exit polls came out and it said

756
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:17,599
the leading issue was democracy, and I thought, remind me

757
00:40:17,639 --> 00:40:19,239
how exit polls work. I tried to look up the

758
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:21,719
panel questions and couldn't find it quickly on the internet.

759
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:24,199
But they give you a pretty selected seven or eight

760
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:27,440
issues I think could choose from, so nobody is I

761
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:29,400
don't think very many people are offering that as a

762
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:32,000
spontaneous what's the most important issue to do is threats

763
00:40:32,039 --> 00:40:35,960
to democracy? The economy makes sense. Well, the one I'm

764
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:38,840
wondering about is I don't believe Well, you know, they

765
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:40,840
used to ask about the environment, and they quit doing

766
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:43,199
it more than twenty years ago because most voters are

767
00:40:43,199 --> 00:40:45,320
not checking it off. It was like two percent, so

768
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:48,760
the environment was most important to them. But I'm wondering, Henry,

769
00:40:49,119 --> 00:40:52,679
to what extent you think that some of these transgender

770
00:40:52,679 --> 00:40:55,440
and identity politics issues played a large role that I

771
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:57,880
think we're not asked about in the exit polls.

772
00:40:58,639 --> 00:41:01,239
Speaker 5: Well, you know, it's there's a lot of things that

773
00:41:01,519 --> 00:41:04,440
may not be the most important thing that are the

774
00:41:04,559 --> 00:41:08,039
straw that breaks the cameras back, and that is one

775
00:41:08,039 --> 00:41:12,679
of them, you know, is that Americans, amazingly enough, particularly

776
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:16,760
Americans in the middle, have nuanced views and that if

777
00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:20,679
what you want to say is should people be allowed

778
00:41:20,679 --> 00:41:24,599
to become transgender. The answer is probably yes. Should children

779
00:41:24,679 --> 00:41:25,920
be allowed to transition?

780
00:41:26,119 --> 00:41:26,199
Speaker 4: No?

781
00:41:27,119 --> 00:41:32,360
Speaker 5: Should people pretend that male and female doesn't exist except

782
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:33,760
as an intellectual construct?

783
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:36,199
Speaker 4: You know? And it's like no.

784
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:39,320
Speaker 5: And so it was one of those things that they

785
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:43,239
switched because it hit on a weakness that they had

786
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:46,440
that they could not respond to. That particularly, I would

787
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:50,159
guess among the last minute deciders who are not necessarily

788
00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:53,559
staunch Republicans helped give them a reason to say no.

789
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:57,599
And the reason, you know, Trump wins not just because

790
00:41:57,639 --> 00:42:00,559
of the partisan shift that was a huge reason, but

791
00:42:00,679 --> 00:42:04,159
because eight percent of the people didn't like both of them,

792
00:42:04,159 --> 00:42:06,159
and he wins by thirty points. In other words, when

793
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:08,280
forced to choose between the man you didn't like and

794
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:11,119
the woman you didn't like, they overwhelming chows the man.

795
00:42:11,199 --> 00:42:12,599
Speaker 4: And I'm sure that's one.

796
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:17,320
Speaker 5: Of the issues, which was this is crazy this yeah,

797
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:21,119
and so yeah, people want to be completely tolerant of

798
00:42:21,199 --> 00:42:26,119
Caitlyn Jenner. People don't think that Kindergartener. I wrote a

799
00:42:26,119 --> 00:42:27,239
piece in the Washington Post.

800
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:31,719
Speaker 1: Best General was for Trump, by the way, Oh yes, no.

801
00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:36,119
Speaker 5: She's always been a Republican. She ran for governor of

802
00:42:36,159 --> 00:42:40,000
California as a Republican. But is that Look, you can

803
00:42:40,039 --> 00:42:42,679
say that Caitlyn Jenner should be treated as Caitlyn Jenner,

804
00:42:42,719 --> 00:42:44,599
not as Bruce. You know, those of us old enough

805
00:42:44,639 --> 00:42:47,599
to remember when Bruce was the Cathlin champion in the

806
00:42:47,639 --> 00:42:52,920
nineteen seventy six Olympus well also believing that kindergartener shouldn't

807
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:55,559
be introduced to gender ideology. And I wrote an article

808
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:59,360
attacking California for introducing curriculum doing that in twenty nineteen

809
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:02,599
and the and I was literally attacked for being a fascist.

810
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:03,559
Speaker 1: Yeah.

811
00:43:03,679 --> 00:43:07,360
Speaker 5: Right, So that's the craziness that the moderate that the

812
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:10,360
middle rejects. If you then turned around and said, as

813
00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:12,800
some people on our extreme right would like to say,

814
00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:16,760
and we should attack Caitlyn Jenner too, we would drive

815
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:18,960
the people in the middle away. And what Donald Trump

816
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:21,760
was able to do to say, look, I occupy in

817
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:24,119
the middle. I think Katelyn Jenner is great, and I

818
00:43:24,119 --> 00:43:26,719
think it's absolutely crazy that sixteen year olds who go

819
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:29,119
through crises all the time should be allowed to say

820
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:31,719
I think that I should change my gender and undergo

821
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:34,800
life changing mutilation surgery.

822
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:36,079
Speaker 2: That's one of the things that the lens is going

823
00:43:36,119 --> 00:43:39,400
to have difficult with in the coming years. They can't

824
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:43,280
concede the points that the kids shouldn't have the education,

825
00:43:43,519 --> 00:43:45,639
or the sixteen year old should not be have the breathroots.

826
00:43:45,639 --> 00:43:47,639
They can't concede those things because to do so to

827
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:50,920
them is to repudiate the entirety of their theory, the

828
00:43:51,039 --> 00:43:54,440
whole notions of queer theory, and all the new ways

829
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:57,719
of thinking about gender. They would have to be.

830
00:43:57,800 --> 00:43:58,280
Speaker 1: They would have.

831
00:43:58,199 --> 00:44:00,840
Speaker 2: To deny it three times before the and they can't

832
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:02,920
do that. With global warming and climate change and the

833
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:05,800
rest of they can't concede. And that's good for the

834
00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:10,119
right because it just shows their inability to conceal what

835
00:44:10,199 --> 00:44:11,320
their eventual ends are.

836
00:44:13,079 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 5: Going back, let's go back to nineteen nineteen. Okay, nineteen nineteen,

837
00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:20,840
the global left had a choice that had never been

838
00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:23,760
faced with before, which was to say, the success of

839
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:26,599
the communist revolution led many to say, we should be

840
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:30,800
like them. Let's have armed revolution, let's establish the dictator

841
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:33,960
of ship of the proletariat. That's what Marx wants us

842
00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:37,039
to do. The vast majority of the global left said, no,

843
00:44:37,199 --> 00:44:40,000
we actually kind of like some things about bourgeois democracy.

844
00:44:40,039 --> 00:44:43,599
We're social democrats. And that's when the socialist International broke

845
00:44:43,679 --> 00:44:47,719
up into the Communist International and the Socialist International, and

846
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:50,719
you started to have communist parties and the Wist and

847
00:44:50,800 --> 00:44:55,920
you had social democratic parties. The left today is faced

848
00:44:56,039 --> 00:44:59,079
not with communism in that sense, but you have a

849
00:44:59,159 --> 00:45:03,079
group of people on left who want to transform Western society.

850
00:45:03,119 --> 00:45:06,599
They hate Western society and it expresses itself in different ways,

851
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:09,880
and then you have the majority that wants to reform it.

852
00:45:10,599 --> 00:45:13,800
In nineteen nineteen they made a choice and they said

853
00:45:14,039 --> 00:45:16,920
reformers are not transformers.

854
00:45:17,239 --> 00:45:18,599
Speaker 4: And we must be separate.

855
00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:23,239
Speaker 5: Nobody in the West has wanted to do that, and

856
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:26,760
you can't be credible about saying your reformers until you

857
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:30,440
reject your transformers. And that bloody battle is what the

858
00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:33,400
Democrats have to go through. And if they can't go

859
00:45:33,519 --> 00:45:37,880
through it, then we will continue to see people, We

860
00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:40,639
will continue to see them. It's like Amy Klobuchar, who

861
00:45:40,679 --> 00:45:43,480
it says, I'm not a socialist. In twenty twenty, they asked, well,

862
00:45:43,559 --> 00:45:46,280
Bernie Sanders a socialists, can you describe how a socialist

863
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:47,159
is different from a democrat?

864
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:47,880
Speaker 4: She couldn't do it.

865
00:45:48,199 --> 00:45:50,519
Speaker 5: Yeah she could, but she was afraid to do it

866
00:45:50,559 --> 00:45:53,039
because the consequences was to split the party.

867
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:55,880
Speaker 4: Guess what after, it's splitting the party to get to

868
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:56,280
the center.

869
00:45:56,800 --> 00:45:59,119
Speaker 2: I look forward. I look forward to adding the regender

870
00:45:59,360 --> 00:46:00,840
stripe to the to the flight.

871
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:04,320
Speaker 1: Well, Henry, you are giving me flashbacks to some old

872
00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:07,239
drunken conversations we had about the Shackman Knights versus the

873
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:10,239
Lovestone Nights, which I didn't think those brain cells still existed,

874
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:13,320
but this really happened. To Peter. One last quick question

875
00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:15,599
for you, and then I want to return Peter, because

876
00:46:15,639 --> 00:46:18,119
I'm enjoying you schooling him. It's just delightful to watch.

877
00:46:18,519 --> 00:46:20,800
You did something interesting on election night, and listeners, if

878
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:23,480
you didn't see Henry's tour the forest for four hours

879
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:26,880
on election night on Twitter X, you missed something. I

880
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:29,000
couldn't believe you kept going. I could keep going that long,

881
00:46:29,039 --> 00:46:31,679
but you did. But you did something I'd never seen before,

882
00:46:31,679 --> 00:46:34,800
and I wonder if it's new. The polls were closed

883
00:46:34,840 --> 00:46:36,719
and in thirty seconds you got the first dump of

884
00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:39,159
the exit poles, and the first thing you looked at

885
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:42,840
was the gender divide, which because of course the exopoles

886
00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:45,719
weren't calling the races up in those states, but you

887
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:48,159
picked out a clue there and what it was was

888
00:46:48,239 --> 00:46:49,800
maybe I just let you explain it, but was you

889
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:53,800
know the electorate is fifty two to forty eight women

890
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:57,119
to men, but Trump's leading men by twelve points, and

891
00:46:57,199 --> 00:46:59,320
Harris's leading women only by eight points. And they did

892
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:01,159
quick math and your head and needed it out to

893
00:47:01,199 --> 00:47:04,840
an advantage for Trump. Is that something you spotted brand

894
00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:07,239
new this time? Or if I just missed you looking

895
00:47:07,239 --> 00:47:09,480
at that before. By the way, all your predictions were

896
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:11,559
looks good for Trump here and here's why, and here's

897
00:47:11,559 --> 00:47:14,679
what the margin might be. It was quite amazing, especially

898
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:17,280
in comparison to the network panels, which were so boring

899
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:19,079
and uninformed and cliche ridden.

900
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:24,880
Speaker 5: Well, thank you, Steve. It's I do this all the time.

901
00:47:25,039 --> 00:47:31,519
I don't necessarily tweet about it. The reason I go

902
00:47:31,639 --> 00:47:34,880
to the gender thing always is because it's fifty to fifty.

903
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:38,599
The thing about exit coles is that the crosscabs must

904
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:42,000
always add up to the top line. If they don't

905
00:47:42,039 --> 00:47:46,039
release the top line, I can create it, Ah, right,

906
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:47,000
well math.

907
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:49,599
Speaker 1: Reverse engineering it. Yes, right, that's what I meant to say.

908
00:47:49,639 --> 00:47:53,400
Speaker 5: My entire career is built on applying seventh grade math

909
00:47:53,519 --> 00:48:02,760
to politics. So take that, Networks. But so I always

910
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:04,639
do it. I didn't talk about it much in the

911
00:48:04,719 --> 00:48:08,920
past because you know, I'm not doing X and so forth.

912
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:11,719
But my audience needs an instant analysis. I can go

913
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:14,760
here's fifty two, here's forty eight. I can quickly do it.

914
00:48:15,079 --> 00:48:18,239
I can quickly create the math, and I can do

915
00:48:18,280 --> 00:48:21,079
it in thirty seconds and it'll be accurate. Yeah, And

916
00:48:21,119 --> 00:48:23,440
so that's why I did it, not because of anything

917
00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:26,719
about the election, because I don't think I've tweeted about

918
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:28,480
in the past. But I have done it when I

919
00:48:28,519 --> 00:48:31,519
needed a very quick what's the top line in a

920
00:48:31,559 --> 00:48:36,480
close election, and this time it really produced real results.

921
00:48:36,679 --> 00:48:38,719
And and what you will go back and see is

922
00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:41,320
what happens is the exit polls are taken, but then

923
00:48:41,320 --> 00:48:43,079
they're always adjusted.

924
00:48:42,559 --> 00:48:44,440
Speaker 4: To reflect the results.

925
00:48:45,559 --> 00:48:47,840
Speaker 5: So what you saw on election night is not what

926
00:48:47,880 --> 00:48:50,119
you will find on the CNN board.

927
00:48:50,159 --> 00:48:50,320
Speaker 4: Now.

928
00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:53,119
Speaker 5: I always hope that somebody took a screenshot so that

929
00:48:53,159 --> 00:48:57,000
you can compare it. I'm so technophobic that I are

930
00:48:57,400 --> 00:48:58,599
non technological events.

931
00:48:58,639 --> 00:49:00,199
Speaker 4: I don't know how to take a screen shot. I

932
00:49:00,199 --> 00:49:00,920
would have done.

933
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:03,800
Speaker 5: But if you go on now, you know the exit

934
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:07,039
polls on election I said Harris would win by six

935
00:49:07,159 --> 00:49:09,639
tenths of a point. You know, I predicted Harris would

936
00:49:09,639 --> 00:49:11,480
win by one point three, but I said, if it

937
00:49:11,639 --> 00:49:14,440
and that was but that was assuming a partisan even split.

938
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:16,639
I said, if it was R plus two or more,

939
00:49:16,679 --> 00:49:20,400
Trump would win, the elect would win the popular vote.

940
00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:22,280
And it's R plus four and Trump is easily going

941
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:24,639
to win the popular vote. So I was directionally right,

942
00:49:24,719 --> 00:49:26,639
and I just didn't want to be so far out

943
00:49:26,679 --> 00:49:28,679
on a limb that I was like hanging on by

944
00:49:28,719 --> 00:49:31,119
my thiss. It was like, it's not a shred of

945
00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:34,679
credibility with people who aren't true believers, you know.

946
00:49:35,039 --> 00:49:36,480
Speaker 4: So that's what I was trying to do.

947
00:49:36,840 --> 00:49:38,760
Speaker 5: And now you go through and I'm sure you will

948
00:49:38,760 --> 00:49:41,079
find different numbers that will, of course show Trump winning

949
00:49:41,119 --> 00:49:42,679
by three, because that's what he's going to do, win

950
00:49:42,760 --> 00:49:43,760
by between two and three.

951
00:49:44,599 --> 00:49:47,320
Speaker 3: Okay, Henry, it turns out election night isn't over. I

952
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:49,719
have before me the website of the New York Times.

953
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:54,880
Why hasn't anybody excuse me, I shouldn't say anybody. Why

954
00:49:54,880 --> 00:49:57,239
haven't Arizona and Nevada been called yet?

955
00:49:58,480 --> 00:50:01,639
Speaker 5: Well, other people have called aras out in Nevad. It's

956
00:50:01,679 --> 00:50:06,159
because Arizona still has a million ballots out. It's estimated

957
00:50:06,159 --> 00:50:09,760
that Nevada may have as many as one hundred thousand

958
00:50:09,840 --> 00:50:13,119
ballots out and that's because they are the peculiarities of

959
00:50:13,159 --> 00:50:13,800
their laws.

960
00:50:15,360 --> 00:50:19,960
Speaker 3: That yeah for But Trump's going to win them both, yeah,

961
00:50:20,159 --> 00:50:22,440
think yes, yeah, Okay.

962
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:27,519
Speaker 5: There's no conceivable way that the margins he has gets

963
00:50:27,559 --> 00:50:29,679
overturned with what we know about the nature of the

964
00:50:29,679 --> 00:50:31,679
ballots that have yet to be counted. Why the New

965
00:50:31,719 --> 00:50:33,960
York Times and New York Times just follows AP. They

966
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:37,519
don't make independence. Oh so blame the Associated Press for

967
00:50:37,559 --> 00:50:41,599
the calls on the New York Times website. And I

968
00:50:41,639 --> 00:50:43,920
had an argument with the AP guy in twenty eighteen.

969
00:50:43,960 --> 00:50:46,079
I called the race early and I was wrong. It's

970
00:50:46,079 --> 00:50:47,880
one of the very few times, and it's because I

971
00:50:47,880 --> 00:50:50,679
didn't account for late mail ballots. And basically the guy

972
00:50:51,199 --> 00:50:54,480
snarked me and said, that's why we don't call them early. Okay,

973
00:50:54,559 --> 00:50:58,000
well I've learned, and you should still be calling them earlier.

974
00:50:58,239 --> 00:51:00,400
Oh mighty AP. But I understand why they want to

975
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:02,480
be very cautious. You know, somebody from the AP may

976
00:51:02,519 --> 00:51:04,519
listen to this. I understand. I'm just a guy. I

977
00:51:04,559 --> 00:51:07,239
don't mind being wrong. You've got a whole reputation. You've

978
00:51:07,239 --> 00:51:09,960
got a whole business. Don't risk destroying your business. And

979
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:12,079
that's what they're doing, is being ultra cautious. But Trump

980
00:51:12,119 --> 00:51:12,559
has Senate.

981
00:51:12,840 --> 00:51:15,320
Speaker 3: Senate Republicans now, according to the New York Times, have

982
00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:17,679
flipped three seats and have fifty two. You would add

983
00:51:17,679 --> 00:51:21,159
Bob Casey. The New York Times is not dated, McCormick.

984
00:51:22,039 --> 00:51:25,239
I'm sorry, excuse me, McCormick. You would add the loss

985
00:51:25,280 --> 00:51:29,159
of Casey. I'm sorry, Okay, So Pennsylvania Republican, although the

986
00:51:29,159 --> 00:51:31,920
Times slash ap hasn't called that yet. That gets Republicans

987
00:51:31,960 --> 00:51:34,960
to fifty three. What's happening in Arizona, Nevada?

988
00:51:35,000 --> 00:51:36,440
Speaker 4: In the Senate racis so Nevada.

989
00:51:36,519 --> 00:51:40,960
Speaker 5: What happened is, you know, late ballots from Clark County

990
00:51:41,119 --> 00:51:44,639
gave Jackie Rose in the lead. And what we'll see

991
00:51:44,679 --> 00:51:47,039
is how many ballots are left out. We know there's

992
00:51:47,079 --> 00:51:52,320
some Republican rural counties that will carve away at Rosen's lead.

993
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:56,480
And we know there's some ballots left in Swingy Washoe County,

994
00:51:56,519 --> 00:51:59,239
which is Reno and inclined village on the north shore

995
00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:04,119
of Lake Tahoe. It's narrow enough that I don't think

996
00:52:04,199 --> 00:52:06,320
we should call that Rice. I never did call it.

997
00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:09,079
I have not called it. I will not call it yet.

998
00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:13,039
That could go either way. We'll have to see Arizona.

999
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:17,599
It's possible Carrie Lake could come from behind. She is

1000
00:52:17,760 --> 00:52:23,119
running behind Donald Trump by three to four points on average,

1001
00:52:23,519 --> 00:52:28,159
which means that if Trump wins the remaining ballots out

1002
00:52:28,280 --> 00:52:32,719
by fifty three forty seven, she will not win because

1003
00:52:32,760 --> 00:52:35,480
she will get that she will get forty nine or

1004
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:38,400
fifty percent. She won't close the gap. If the remaining

1005
00:52:38,440 --> 00:52:43,599
ballots favor Trump fifty five fifty seven percent, she should

1006
00:52:43,639 --> 00:52:46,800
get fifty two to fifty four percent. And there are

1007
00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:51,199
enough ballots out there that winning by eight points would

1008
00:52:51,239 --> 00:52:52,840
get her with you know, I haven't done the math.

1009
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:54,599
I'm doing this literally in my head. Would get her

1010
00:52:54,599 --> 00:52:57,440
within the range where she could win. But that's what

1011
00:52:57,519 --> 00:52:59,559
needs to happen. It could happen. There's a lot of

1012
00:52:59,559 --> 00:53:05,400
republic ballots probably still out there, not likely, but within

1013
00:53:05,440 --> 00:53:06,559
the realm of possibility.

1014
00:53:06,840 --> 00:53:09,199
Speaker 3: All right, last question, Now I am under instructions from

1015
00:53:09,239 --> 00:53:12,719
my son, who is a student of yours, although he's

1016
00:53:12,719 --> 00:53:17,480
actually in medical school. Why is it that the house

1017
00:53:17,760 --> 00:53:21,719
is such a getting the results from the House, finding

1018
00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:23,360
out who's going to have the majority in the House

1019
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:27,320
is so slow and tortuous by comparison with the Senate

1020
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:30,519
and particularly the presidency. Why do we still not know

1021
00:53:30,559 --> 00:53:32,239
who's going to have a majority in the House.

1022
00:53:33,199 --> 00:53:35,599
Speaker 4: First of all, because it's very close.

1023
00:53:36,679 --> 00:53:39,760
Speaker 5: And secondly, it's mainly because of the male states, mainly

1024
00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:42,559
because of California. There are so many state seats in

1025
00:53:42,599 --> 00:53:47,599
California that are close. If you go on the New

1026
00:53:47,679 --> 00:53:49,400
York Times side, as I did about two hours ago,

1027
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:51,320
and you add up all the seats that Republicans are

1028
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:53,639
leading in, they're leading in or have called two hundred

1029
00:53:53,639 --> 00:53:57,000
and twenty three seats, it's possible that some of those flip.

1030
00:53:57,320 --> 00:53:59,960
With thirty five or forty percent of the vote left

1031
00:54:00,079 --> 00:54:03,079
to be counted, it's possible Republicans can gain a couple,

1032
00:54:03,119 --> 00:54:05,159
you know, there's a couple of there's three seats that

1033
00:54:05,199 --> 00:54:07,639
the Democrats lead by less than one percent and there's

1034
00:54:07,639 --> 00:54:10,880
still votes to be counting. So the thing is that

1035
00:54:11,000 --> 00:54:14,079
California is the main reason for this. Washington and Alaska

1036
00:54:14,119 --> 00:54:17,199
are also seats that are reasons for because they count

1037
00:54:17,400 --> 00:54:21,480
mail ballots. Sleigh, Oregon, there's a Republican cumbent Loria chevezde Riemer,

1038
00:54:21,480 --> 00:54:23,639
who's trailing by two points, but they are lake counting

1039
00:54:23,679 --> 00:54:24,480
mail ballots there.

1040
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:25,880
Speaker 4: That's the main reason.

1041
00:54:26,039 --> 00:54:29,840
Speaker 5: But the fact is, if Republicans had a better night

1042
00:54:30,920 --> 00:54:35,320
in the East, if they had clearly won a couple

1043
00:54:35,400 --> 00:54:37,239
of these seats, that they're going to look like they're

1044
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:39,840
going to come close to you know, like if they'd

1045
00:54:39,840 --> 00:54:42,480
won North Carolina one instead of losing it by one point,

1046
00:54:42,639 --> 00:54:45,400
or if they had won Ohio thirteen instead of looks

1047
00:54:45,400 --> 00:54:47,440
like they're losing it by two points, and so forth

1048
00:54:47,519 --> 00:54:49,960
and so on, and that'd be a point where we

1049
00:54:50,039 --> 00:54:53,559
could call the house. But it's because of the combination

1050
00:54:53,639 --> 00:54:54,440
of those two factors.

1051
00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:58,480
Speaker 3: Okay, I have one last question, and then I read

1052
00:54:58,639 --> 00:55:02,239
I hand you over to James and Stephen I promised

1053
00:55:02,280 --> 00:55:06,159
to do that. And the last question is this promises

1054
00:55:06,199 --> 00:55:11,320
promises the bro theme, the bro theme. The Democrats seem

1055
00:55:11,599 --> 00:55:16,239
especially resentful of this that somehow or other Trump engaged

1056
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:22,840
in some kind of sort of batsqueak signals to frat

1057
00:55:22,880 --> 00:55:26,039
boys across the country and and men turned out. In fact,

1058
00:55:26,039 --> 00:55:29,639
there's a hilarious of some fraternity someplace where there's a

1059
00:55:29,800 --> 00:55:33,840
hilarious tweet up a huge number of fraternity boys, all

1060
00:55:33,920 --> 00:55:37,599
dressed up in their blue blazers and ties, and one

1061
00:55:37,719 --> 00:55:42,440
does a Trumps impression saying, Kamela, You're fired, and the

1062
00:55:42,519 --> 00:55:44,079
rest of them burst into cheers.

1063
00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:47,760
Speaker 4: Okay, so there's there all the red ties like Trump wears.

1064
00:55:47,920 --> 00:55:50,280
Speaker 3: Yes, yes, yes, exactly. You've seen it. You've seen it.

1065
00:55:50,519 --> 00:55:50,800
Speaker 4: Okay.

1066
00:55:51,199 --> 00:55:56,800
Speaker 3: So was there something real there? Did the campaign intentionally

1067
00:55:57,159 --> 00:55:59,199
or is it just Trump? He's a guy's guy and

1068
00:55:59,280 --> 00:56:01,000
that just comes across every time you see him.

1069
00:56:00,880 --> 00:56:01,360
Speaker 1: On the screen.

1070
00:56:01,639 --> 00:56:01,800
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1071
00:56:01,840 --> 00:56:03,800
Speaker 5: So what I would say is a couple of things.

1072
00:56:04,159 --> 00:56:11,039
First of all, it is amazing that a group that

1073
00:56:11,239 --> 00:56:17,880
engages regularly in identity politics was resentful when somebody plays

1074
00:56:17,920 --> 00:56:21,199
identity politics back at them, you know, which is what

1075
00:56:21,679 --> 00:56:24,159
was the theme of the theme of the Harris campaign.

1076
00:56:24,679 --> 00:56:28,719
Women act as women. Don't tell your husbands, women tell

1077
00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:31,119
your dates on Tinder that you won't sleep with them

1078
00:56:31,159 --> 00:56:32,239
if they vote for Trump.

1079
00:56:32,480 --> 00:56:33,679
Speaker 4: Blah blah blah blah blah.

1080
00:56:33,880 --> 00:56:37,360
Speaker 5: You think that maybe if somebody says I want to

1081
00:56:37,400 --> 00:56:40,639
be a man, be a man and vote for Trump,

1082
00:56:41,239 --> 00:56:44,239
how is one legitimate and not the other. And it's

1083
00:56:44,320 --> 00:56:46,559
kind of like Newtonian politics. You wanted an action, but

1084
00:56:46,679 --> 00:56:51,360
you didn't want a reaction. What planet do you live in? Well,

1085
00:56:51,400 --> 00:56:53,800
you live in a bubble. Your bubble. So that's point one.

1086
00:56:54,199 --> 00:57:01,199
Point two is never think of the brow in the

1087
00:57:01,239 --> 00:57:03,519
way you usually think of the bros. Let me quickly

1088
00:57:03,599 --> 00:57:06,960
to ask you, Peter, I know you, so who is

1089
00:57:07,039 --> 00:57:09,679
a bro? When you when you say the word broke,

1090
00:57:10,039 --> 00:57:11,679
immediately give me the description of.

1091
00:57:11,840 --> 00:57:16,440
Speaker 3: Who is the bro? The bro the bro is Two

1092
00:57:16,480 --> 00:57:18,639
images come to mind immediately. One we just discussed and

1093
00:57:18,920 --> 00:57:21,079
little fraternity brothers. Those are bros.

1094
00:57:21,559 --> 00:57:21,679
Speaker 5: Uh.

1095
00:57:21,960 --> 00:57:24,119
Speaker 3: The other bro who comes to mind? He's wearing a

1096
00:57:24,199 --> 00:57:27,119
high lak. What do they look They look Uh, they

1097
00:57:27,159 --> 00:57:30,760
look like jocks. They have they have square shoulders. They're athletes.

1098
00:57:31,199 --> 00:57:33,559
There b students and athletes, and they like to have

1099
00:57:33,599 --> 00:57:36,599
a good time. They enjoy a beer. They're patriotic, they

1100
00:57:36,679 --> 00:57:38,320
watch they watch a lot of football.

1101
00:57:38,679 --> 00:57:41,440
Speaker 4: Those are bros, right, and I'll bet they're white.

1102
00:57:41,840 --> 00:57:44,280
Speaker 3: Oh well, okay, I hadn't thought of it that way.

1103
00:57:44,320 --> 00:57:47,639
Speaker 4: But that's my point. I didn't think of it that way.

1104
00:57:49,760 --> 00:57:55,440
Speaker 5: Everything that they are talking about is assuming literally assuming

1105
00:57:55,920 --> 00:58:01,159
that they're communicating to white less educated or white hyper

1106
00:58:02,199 --> 00:58:03,000
athletic man.

1107
00:58:06,639 --> 00:58:07,639
Speaker 4: What about Latino men?

1108
00:58:08,360 --> 00:58:13,079
Speaker 5: Yeah, no, see, I love listening to Joe Rogan. Maybe

1109
00:58:13,679 --> 00:58:16,880
what about black man? What about Asian man? Yeah, the

1110
00:58:16,960 --> 00:58:19,639
thing is that it's like, this is a corollary of

1111
00:58:19,960 --> 00:58:21,559
look at the youth vote. How did you get the

1112
00:58:21,639 --> 00:58:26,400
youth vote? Guys, gals, The youth vote is the least

1113
00:58:26,519 --> 00:58:31,039
white component of the electorate. If you move Latino men,

1114
00:58:32,000 --> 00:58:35,519
you're not moving sixty five year olds, you're moving eighteen

1115
00:58:35,559 --> 00:58:38,760
to thirty five year olds. Of course, that demographic move

1116
00:58:38,920 --> 00:58:42,480
because it's not your friends, it's not your interns, it's

1117
00:58:42,599 --> 00:58:45,039
not those people. It's the people you look down on,

1118
00:58:45,800 --> 00:58:48,480
the people you've never been to. It's the people who

1119
00:58:48,519 --> 00:58:52,159
are driving your trucks, pumping your gas, who are checking

1120
00:58:52,199 --> 00:58:54,119
you out at the supermarket, and living in the Rio

1121
00:58:54,239 --> 00:58:57,280
Grand Valley. That's the eighteen to thirty year old demographic.

1122
00:58:57,760 --> 00:59:01,679
Speaker 2: And they also have things that binding them together, cultural

1123
00:59:01,760 --> 00:59:05,000
things from games to culture to movies to the rest

1124
00:59:05,039 --> 00:59:07,159
of it. There are a whole series of tropes that

1125
00:59:07,239 --> 00:59:11,559
would never enter the consciousness of the A is a

1126
00:59:11,639 --> 00:59:14,960
shared culture amongst them. The transcends race, which is a

1127
00:59:15,039 --> 00:59:16,599
good thing and a very American thing.

1128
00:59:17,039 --> 00:59:19,840
Speaker 4: That's exactly that's exactly right. And they can't see any

1129
00:59:19,880 --> 00:59:20,119
of that.

1130
00:59:20,679 --> 00:59:23,840
Speaker 2: And it'll realize that if you really screw up a

1131
00:59:24,000 --> 00:59:28,639
Star Wars series with a particularly overdone, heavy handed message,

1132
00:59:29,039 --> 00:59:31,239
you've alienated a lot of people across, not just the

1133
00:59:31,320 --> 00:59:33,599
white nerds in the basement. I mean, you can go

1134
00:59:33,719 --> 00:59:35,960
back and count a shift to Trump by the number

1135
00:59:36,000 --> 00:59:41,360
of people who were in who were infuriated that Warhammer

1136
00:59:41,480 --> 00:59:44,239
lore had now been readjusted to be more diverse to women.

1137
00:59:44,360 --> 00:59:47,719
I mean, these little cultural earthquakes out there that reverberate

1138
00:59:47,760 --> 00:59:50,000
in ways that they never see coming because they they

1139
00:59:50,079 --> 00:59:52,039
write them off. All they see is that when they

1140
00:59:52,079 --> 00:59:54,599
hear that the bros Are moving to Trump, they think

1141
00:59:54,639 --> 00:59:56,559
that they've all set up their ironing boards and they're

1142
00:59:56,719 --> 00:59:58,719
putting the crease in their SS uniform so they can

1143
00:59:58,800 --> 01:00:00,920
go out and do fascists. No, they just don't want

1144
01:00:00,960 --> 01:00:04,239
to be nanny dead and fingerwag waved dead by a

1145
01:00:04,280 --> 01:00:08,360
bunch of hectoring women who came from HR to make

1146
01:00:08,400 --> 01:00:09,199
their life miserable.

1147
01:00:09,239 --> 01:00:09,599
Speaker 4: Anyway.

1148
01:00:10,400 --> 01:00:12,159
Speaker 5: The third thing I want to say is, you know,

1149
01:00:12,199 --> 01:00:17,239
from a monkey python perspective, there's a skit called the

1150
01:00:17,320 --> 01:00:24,480
Norwegian fish Lapping Dance where John Pleice is standing on

1151
01:00:25,000 --> 01:00:28,000
a pier and Michael Palin is standing on a pier

1152
01:00:28,039 --> 01:00:31,280
into this kind of wimpy music. Michael Palin dances up

1153
01:00:31,320 --> 01:00:34,519
and he takes two sardines and slaps John Police on

1154
01:00:34,639 --> 01:00:35,039
the cheek.

1155
01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:39,719
Speaker 4: Okay, this is.

1156
01:00:41,199 --> 01:00:44,599
Speaker 5: The equivalent of what Michelle Obama was doing. And then

1157
01:00:44,679 --> 01:00:47,480
at the end of the Norwegian fish Lamp we dance.

1158
01:00:47,639 --> 01:00:50,400
John Pleice takes out a huge salmon and knocks Michael

1159
01:00:50,440 --> 01:00:52,840
Palin into the ocean and that ecua.

1160
01:00:55,719 --> 01:00:57,360
Speaker 2: Actually, I have to say that I believe it was

1161
01:00:57,400 --> 01:00:59,800
a river, not an ocean. And on that note, off

1162
01:01:00,000 --> 01:01:02,840
fortunate incorrectness when it comes to a classic Munti python skin.

1163
01:01:02,840 --> 01:01:06,760
I believe we have to let Henry go ever a pleasure,

1164
01:01:06,920 --> 01:01:09,559
and again I think we managed to drag some stuff

1165
01:01:09,599 --> 01:01:13,880
out of you. We know you're reticent sometimes to give

1166
01:01:13,920 --> 01:01:16,800
your views on things, but listen, folks, more to come.

1167
01:01:17,000 --> 01:01:20,079
You can find more of Henry at the Beyond the

1168
01:01:20,159 --> 01:01:23,000
Polls podcast and of course the book Working Class Republican,

1169
01:01:23,079 --> 01:01:27,679
Donald Reagan and the Return of Blue Collar Conservatism. Fascinating stuff.

1170
01:01:27,719 --> 01:01:30,039
It's been a joy and I've learned a lot. So

1171
01:01:30,639 --> 01:01:33,400
thanks for joining us, and we'll see you on your podcast.

1172
01:01:33,039 --> 01:01:35,039
Speaker 4: At the Rigishine network, Thank you very much.

1173
01:01:36,559 --> 01:01:38,119
Speaker 2: If I can just interrupt you for a second, do

1174
01:01:38,159 --> 01:01:39,920
you know that your personal data is being stolen at

1175
01:01:39,920 --> 01:01:42,360
this very moment? And you say no, that's ridiculous, dude,

1176
01:01:42,480 --> 01:01:45,880
it's data, okay, data. We all know that your data

1177
01:01:46,159 --> 01:01:49,760
is is out there. If you're a digital citizen, then

1178
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Podcast and for being a new sponsor as well. So

1210
01:03:38,480 --> 01:03:42,039
Peter has to Peter has to go. Peter is gone, well,

1211
01:03:42,840 --> 01:03:44,599
all of a sudden, It's kind of kind of lonely

1212
01:03:44,719 --> 01:03:48,800
to here. Henry's gone, and Peter right away, and Steven

1213
01:03:48,840 --> 01:03:49,159
as well.

1214
01:03:49,880 --> 01:03:52,039
Speaker 1: I'm still around, but you know, just of the show.

1215
01:03:52,519 --> 01:03:54,960
Speaker 2: Well, if ladies and gentlemen doing his bit to step

1216
01:03:55,000 --> 01:03:57,639
into these shoes of rob, let me spoil what you

1217
01:03:57,760 --> 01:04:01,320
happen to be doing that I can't see. Yes, Stephen

1218
01:04:01,400 --> 01:04:03,840
is still here. Okay, all right, so you are here.

1219
01:04:04,599 --> 01:04:07,159
We'll just keep rolling with this. Then I have nothing

1220
01:04:07,239 --> 01:04:11,159
more to add everything. I would be superfluous. I mean,

1221
01:04:11,199 --> 01:04:13,639
Henry just sort of says it all. But I have

1222
01:04:13,679 --> 01:04:15,400
the feeling, Stephen, that you might have something you wanted

1223
01:04:15,400 --> 01:04:18,800
to add, some little bon moo, some prediction, some thought

1224
01:04:18,920 --> 01:04:21,119
to come. What would you like to leave the listeners with.

1225
01:04:21,599 --> 01:04:23,639
Speaker 1: Well, it's a big subject that we can't get into,

1226
01:04:23,760 --> 01:04:26,280
but I think Joe Rogan is the Qualt, the Walter

1227
01:04:26,360 --> 01:04:29,079
Cronkite of our age in terms of audience and trusts.

1228
01:04:29,239 --> 01:04:31,840
And I think that's a big takeaway of the selection cycle. Perhaps.

1229
01:04:32,639 --> 01:04:35,039
Speaker 2: Okay, well, I look forward to two years from now

1230
01:04:35,119 --> 01:04:37,000
from Joe Rogan saying that he believes the war in

1231
01:04:37,079 --> 01:04:41,519
Taiwan has been lost. Never know how these things are

1232
01:04:41,559 --> 01:04:46,719
going to go. That's interesting. I mean Cronkite never put

1233
01:04:46,800 --> 01:04:47,800
himself out there.

1234
01:04:47,679 --> 01:04:48,480
Speaker 4: In the way that I mean.

1235
01:04:48,599 --> 01:04:51,440
Speaker 2: Rogan is an interlocutor, he's a he's he's a he's

1236
01:04:51,480 --> 01:04:53,760
a prodter, he's a poker, he's a I mean, he

1237
01:04:53,840 --> 01:04:55,519
takes time. I mean, he's he's not one of those

1238
01:04:55,519 --> 01:04:57,679
guys you can go right for the juggulter and try

1239
01:04:57,679 --> 01:04:59,039
to get the great quote and the rest of it.

1240
01:04:59,480 --> 01:05:02,800
I mean, Cronkeyed had the pretense of telling you the

1241
01:05:02,880 --> 01:05:04,039
way it was right.

1242
01:05:04,119 --> 01:05:05,559
Speaker 4: He was the he was the.

1243
01:05:07,159 --> 01:05:11,719
Speaker 2: The Robert McNamara technocratic IBM controlled all all those nineteen

1244
01:05:11,760 --> 01:05:15,079
sixties things. He was that until he wasn't and people realized,

1245
01:05:15,119 --> 01:05:17,239
perhaps that they had been shading behind it all all

1246
01:05:17,280 --> 01:05:21,920
the way. And I mean, I would thought that he

1247
01:05:21,920 --> 01:05:23,239
would have said that Joe Rogan was going to be

1248
01:05:23,280 --> 01:05:26,280
the Rush Limbaugh inasmuch as he was long form and

1249
01:05:26,440 --> 01:05:32,280
influential in ways that changed people's minds. But the Kronkite hmm,

1250
01:05:33,039 --> 01:05:37,679
is even a Cronkeyed analogy valid in this world of

1251
01:05:38,119 --> 01:05:39,360
completely fractured media.

1252
01:05:40,159 --> 01:05:41,719
Speaker 1: Well, I mean the only reason I say that is

1253
01:05:41,800 --> 01:05:46,280
because he's commanding this enormous audience, and I think people

1254
01:05:46,320 --> 01:05:49,880
trust him because he hey Look, he's the opposite of

1255
01:05:49,920 --> 01:05:52,239
Rush Limbaugh. He doesn't put his own opinions out there

1256
01:05:52,679 --> 01:05:54,960
very forcefully. He doesn't make him self the center of attention.

1257
01:05:55,239 --> 01:05:59,119
He lets people talk and explain themselves. And if it's correct,

1258
01:05:59,159 --> 01:06:02,440
then he got undred million views for his Trump interview.

1259
01:06:02,559 --> 01:06:06,119
Well that's I don't know, the networks in a week

1260
01:06:06,159 --> 01:06:08,280
don't get that many viewers anymore. And so that makes

1261
01:06:08,360 --> 01:06:10,920
him the dominant media figure of our time. And I'm

1262
01:06:10,960 --> 01:06:13,679
going to say this is the first podcast election. Twenty

1263
01:06:13,760 --> 01:06:16,199
twelve was the first big data election. This was the

1264
01:06:16,280 --> 01:06:17,079
podcast election.

1265
01:06:18,360 --> 01:06:21,320
Speaker 2: And Harris I think was wise not to go on

1266
01:06:21,480 --> 01:06:24,360
Rogan because I think she would have revealed herself effort

1267
01:06:24,400 --> 01:06:27,000
but twenty forty minutes or so to be an absolute

1268
01:06:27,039 --> 01:06:31,000
intellectual nullody who's been born aloft by political philanthropy for

1269
01:06:31,039 --> 01:06:33,719
her entire career. So yeah, that was a smart thing

1270
01:06:33,760 --> 01:06:36,039
to do. But people also noticed that she wasn't doing

1271
01:06:36,079 --> 01:06:37,559
it and didn't buy any of the reasons that she

1272
01:06:37,599 --> 01:06:39,519
said that she wasn't. I mean, they thought, no, she's

1273
01:06:39,599 --> 01:06:42,159
not doing it because she's not good at that sort

1274
01:06:42,199 --> 01:06:44,719
of thing. Vance was good at it. I saw a

1275
01:06:44,760 --> 01:06:47,320
whole bunch of and again this is what fascinated to me.

1276
01:06:47,360 --> 01:06:49,880
At the beginning, we were told by Tim Waltz that.

1277
01:06:50,079 --> 01:06:51,039
Speaker 1: Jade Vance was weird.

1278
01:06:51,079 --> 01:06:53,599
Speaker 2: There's something weird about him, and the weird thing that

1279
01:06:53,679 --> 01:06:56,039
they're trying to say was because he had somewhat fairly

1280
01:06:56,119 --> 01:06:59,559
traditional ideas about societal organization when the game to men

1281
01:06:59,599 --> 01:07:01,599
and women, brocreation, marriage, and the rest of it, which

1282
01:07:01,639 --> 01:07:05,960
most people do not regard as weird. But walt ended

1283
01:07:06,039 --> 01:07:08,800
up looking weirder and weirder and weirder to people the

1284
01:07:08,880 --> 01:07:10,440
more the thing got on and what you got out

1285
01:07:10,440 --> 01:07:13,719
of Jdvans is sitting back there, very calmly explaining why

1286
01:07:13,840 --> 01:07:16,599
we need to stockpile capacitors and transformers in the case

1287
01:07:16,639 --> 01:07:22,360
of a, yeah, an Iranian electromagnetic pulse that destroy society.

1288
01:07:23,039 --> 01:07:24,880
I'm going to go with a nerdy guy who's kind

1289
01:07:24,920 --> 01:07:26,639
of thought about those things a few times before. I

1290
01:07:26,760 --> 01:07:29,679
am about the fellow who's going to make couch jokes

1291
01:07:29,719 --> 01:07:36,800
and applaud the various Well, I'm about to say something

1292
01:07:36,800 --> 01:07:38,719
about the state of Minnesota that I dassn't because I

1293
01:07:38,840 --> 01:07:40,679
like it. That's another podcast. It's not going to be

1294
01:07:40,719 --> 01:07:42,639
the Diner. The Diner will be coming to you this weekend.

1295
01:07:42,679 --> 01:07:44,800
By the way, that's me James Lylacs at the Diner.

1296
01:07:45,199 --> 01:07:48,280
A strenuously non political enterprise. It just seeks to sort

1297
01:07:48,280 --> 01:07:52,000
of roam about the back rooms of American culture and

1298
01:07:52,079 --> 01:07:54,159
open up the drawers and rifle through them and never

1299
01:07:54,559 --> 01:07:56,760
ever know what it's going to be. We just sort

1300
01:07:56,800 --> 01:08:00,400
of show up, we talk, and after thirty minut we

1301
01:08:00,559 --> 01:08:02,280
shut up and drive home. So you're welcome to come

1302
01:08:02,320 --> 01:08:04,000
to the Diner. You are, of course welcome to come

1303
01:08:04,039 --> 01:08:07,239
to ricochet dot com. Join up. It's cheap. Come on,

1304
01:08:07,840 --> 01:08:09,519
you're going to want to have a conversation in the

1305
01:08:09,599 --> 01:08:11,880
next few years about all that goes right and all

1306
01:08:11,960 --> 01:08:13,719
that goes wrong. There's so much to say in what

1307
01:08:13,800 --> 01:08:15,760
Henry was talking about, and if you would like to

1308
01:08:15,880 --> 01:08:18,319
do so, well, that's the great thing about Ricochet. You

1309
01:08:18,439 --> 01:08:20,600
have to be a member and pee just a little

1310
01:08:20,600 --> 01:08:23,119
bit to contribute and make posts, and that means that

1311
01:08:23,199 --> 01:08:26,800
the post quality signal of the noise ratio is fantastic.

1312
01:08:27,640 --> 01:08:29,920
Stephen it's been a pleasure. We'll see everybody in the

1313
01:08:29,960 --> 01:08:33,279
comments at Ricochet four point oh, and I'm out of here.

1314
01:08:33,319 --> 01:08:34,640
We'll see you next week.

1315
01:08:35,439 --> 01:08:42,600
Speaker 3: Next week, everybody, Ricochet, Ye join the conversation