WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.040 --> 00:00:03.640 Welcome to the Auction Brief. 2 00:00:07.639 --> 00:00:09.080 There's a joy in these games. 3 00:00:10.320 --> 00:00:13.759 Taking you on a journey through fantasy football, the law, 4 00:00:14.039 --> 00:00:18.640 and life. We saw your depends on. 5 00:00:18.679 --> 00:00:23.039 How much you want, and now you're legal analyst and 6 00:00:23.120 --> 00:00:25.199 auction draft expert here to help you. 7 00:00:25.199 --> 00:00:31.120 Dominate your fantasy drafts. Your host, Drew Davenport, there are 8 00:00:31.600 --> 00:00:32.240 full hearts. 9 00:00:32.600 --> 00:00:40.200 Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Auction Brief. As the lady said, 10 00:00:40.359 --> 00:00:42.719 I'm your host, Drew Davenport, and thank you so much 11 00:00:42.759 --> 00:00:46.280 for joining me for another episode. As you know, we 12 00:00:46.439 --> 00:00:49.399 have one goal here on the Auction Brief, and that 13 00:00:49.560 --> 00:00:53.840 is to help all of you win more titles. And 14 00:00:54.000 --> 00:00:55.560 one of the ways that we do that is by 15 00:00:55.600 --> 00:00:58.399 bringing the best and brightest minds in the fantasy community 16 00:00:58.679 --> 00:01:02.640 on here from my weekly Discussions with Drew. These conversations 17 00:01:02.679 --> 00:01:05.519 are there to help you with the most difficult fantasy 18 00:01:05.519 --> 00:01:07.879 situations you're going to face in your drafts this summer. 19 00:01:08.680 --> 00:01:11.400 Let's not delay. Let's get right to this week's guest 20 00:01:11.920 --> 00:01:14.760 on another installment of Discussions with Drew. 21 00:01:17.040 --> 00:01:20.519 Time for Discussions with Drew, in depth conversations with the 22 00:01:20.560 --> 00:01:22.480 brightest minds in the fantasy industry. 23 00:01:24.120 --> 00:01:26.519 Welcome into this week's discussions with Drew. I have one 24 00:01:26.560 --> 00:01:29.560 of my favorite guests that I have every summer, mister 25 00:01:29.680 --> 00:01:33.920 rich Riebar Lord Reeves himself. Find him on Twitter at 26 00:01:33.959 --> 00:01:37.680 Lord Reeves. That's our ee bs. And I just saw 27 00:01:37.840 --> 00:01:42.400 Richie yesterday. It's scott Fishbowl in Cincinnati, and it's wonderful 28 00:01:42.439 --> 00:01:44.959 when I get this much Reeves in my life. Two 29 00:01:45.079 --> 00:01:47.000 days in a row, I get to hang out with 30 00:01:47.120 --> 00:01:51.640 the man himself over there at Sharp Football Analysis. Rich 31 00:01:51.680 --> 00:01:52.719 thanks so much for being here. 32 00:01:53.480 --> 00:01:55.920 Yeah, anytime. It's always great to catch up with you 33 00:01:56.000 --> 00:01:58.079 two and all all the Ohio guys. You know, we 34 00:01:58.120 --> 00:02:00.120 have a big, you know, deep, you know, contingency of 35 00:02:00.359 --> 00:02:03.840 fantasy footballers in Ohio, and a lot of times people 36 00:02:03.879 --> 00:02:06.599 don't realize that Ohio is a much larger state than 37 00:02:06.599 --> 00:02:09.639 people realize. And we don't all live like super close together, 38 00:02:09.759 --> 00:02:11.960 like I can't get a twenty minutes and we can 39 00:02:12.000 --> 00:02:14.000 just hang out. So it's always nice when we get 40 00:02:14.000 --> 00:02:16.280 a chance to have a weekend spend some extended time 41 00:02:16.280 --> 00:02:20.080 together and be honest, like when people hear about us 42 00:02:20.080 --> 00:02:21.719 and we don't talk about football at all these things, we 43 00:02:21.759 --> 00:02:23.560 more or less hang out, and you know, hang out 44 00:02:23.560 --> 00:02:26.919 as actual friends too, outside of the football community. But 45 00:02:26.919 --> 00:02:29.000 it's nice getting us all together anytime we can have it. 46 00:02:29.599 --> 00:02:31.039 That's a point that I don't think a lot of 47 00:02:31.080 --> 00:02:33.599 people believe, but we don't actually just get together and 48 00:02:33.639 --> 00:02:36.599 talk about football. In fact, that's probably not one of 49 00:02:36.639 --> 00:02:41.000 the top ten topics we talk about usually. But well, yeah, 50 00:02:41.039 --> 00:02:43.120 thank you so much for being here. And like you said, 51 00:02:43.280 --> 00:02:46.919 Ohio's got a really deep bench and just this week, 52 00:02:46.960 --> 00:02:48.840 you guys had an opening and a dynasty league. I 53 00:02:48.879 --> 00:02:50.719 had to turn it down. I just have too much 54 00:02:50.759 --> 00:02:52.599 going on in the summers. I couldn't do it. And 55 00:02:52.639 --> 00:02:55.560 of course then what Ian got the call. So when 56 00:02:55.599 --> 00:02:58.199 you can go to your bench and grab Ian Hartitz, 57 00:02:58.240 --> 00:03:01.159 that's a pretty good Ohio can It was great seeing 58 00:03:01.159 --> 00:03:03.919 all those guys, Chris Allen and everybody that Scott Fish Bowl. 59 00:03:03.960 --> 00:03:07.280 But we have important things that we got to get 60 00:03:07.280 --> 00:03:10.520 to because I'm trying to make the show all about 61 00:03:10.520 --> 00:03:14.240 the fantasy and less screwing around. This year, we're gonna 62 00:03:14.240 --> 00:03:16.719 get you out in forty five minutes. But me and 63 00:03:16.759 --> 00:03:19.199 you we both like to run our mouths, so hey, 64 00:03:19.240 --> 00:03:23.879 we'll try our best. But it's June, and I say 65 00:03:23.879 --> 00:03:26.159 this to my followers every time in June, and I 66 00:03:26.199 --> 00:03:28.000 know some people get a little tired of hearing it, 67 00:03:28.199 --> 00:03:31.439 but I love talking about lessons that we learned in 68 00:03:31.479 --> 00:03:34.319 twenty twenty five. It's just one of my favorite things 69 00:03:34.319 --> 00:03:36.879 because everyone has a different take on what they took 70 00:03:36.919 --> 00:03:40.400 away from last year, what didn't work. What worked is 71 00:03:40.439 --> 00:03:43.199 something in your mind, something popp into your head that 72 00:03:43.280 --> 00:03:45.080 you think from twenty twenty five you're going to be 73 00:03:45.080 --> 00:03:46.680 really thinking about going into next season. 74 00:03:47.560 --> 00:03:50.520 I don't necessarily believe like like hard lessons, but you know, 75 00:03:50.560 --> 00:03:53.159 anyone that's followed my work, I believe, you know, ever 76 00:03:53.199 --> 00:03:55.080 since I got in the industry, and especially you know 77 00:03:55.120 --> 00:03:56.879 the last few years that I've started to do like 78 00:03:56.879 --> 00:03:59.240 a personal draft kit, like a lot of people that 79 00:03:59.240 --> 00:04:01.639 have branched off on their own, you know, you know branches. 80 00:04:01.639 --> 00:04:02.919 You know, JJ puts out a great. 81 00:04:02.800 --> 00:04:03.319 One as well. 82 00:04:03.800 --> 00:04:06.000 But one of the things that's been a huge topic 83 00:04:06.039 --> 00:04:08.599 of this entire offseason is, you know, the state of 84 00:04:08.599 --> 00:04:11.319 the NFL. You know, two tight end sets, right, heavy sets. 85 00:04:11.599 --> 00:04:14.280 Everyone's talking about that, you know, the coverage. But I've 86 00:04:14.319 --> 00:04:16.480 been putting out a series about the you know, NFL 87 00:04:16.519 --> 00:04:19.000 trends for ever since I've been doing this Draft Kit 88 00:04:19.079 --> 00:04:21.639 with Warren, and I've been really ahead of the curve 89 00:04:21.680 --> 00:04:23.319 of a lot of this stuff. You know. One of 90 00:04:23.360 --> 00:04:25.560 the things about fans football that gamers tend to, I 91 00:04:25.600 --> 00:04:28.000 think overlook is just not tying into the state of 92 00:04:28.000 --> 00:04:30.199 the league and what's happening in the league and into 93 00:04:30.240 --> 00:04:32.079 their approach and gaming. And that can even you know, 94 00:04:32.199 --> 00:04:35.240 get disregard a little bit from an analytical stance. When 95 00:04:35.279 --> 00:04:36.959 you're just like, all right, this worked last year, this 96 00:04:37.040 --> 00:04:38.639 has worked for the last decade, It's like, well, what 97 00:04:38.720 --> 00:04:40.439 kind of rule changes have there've been, what are teams 98 00:04:40.480 --> 00:04:42.160 doing now? And being able to kind of you know, 99 00:04:42.199 --> 00:04:45.319 make that applicable to kind of your approach because I 100 00:04:45.680 --> 00:04:47.560 went through last year and pulled some stuff for you know, 101 00:04:47.560 --> 00:04:49.079 they're like, oh, you know, go back and pull some 102 00:04:49.079 --> 00:04:50.600 stuff that you got right so we could promote for 103 00:04:50.639 --> 00:04:52.240 the draft kit and stuff. And I'm going through my 104 00:04:52.360 --> 00:04:54.240 draft plan. I'm like I wrote about all like a 105 00:04:54.240 --> 00:04:56.079 lot of these threads that you see, like I had 106 00:04:56.120 --> 00:04:58.600 all this stuff written about going into last year, and 107 00:04:58.639 --> 00:05:00.160 a lot of people that were you know, able to 108 00:05:00.560 --> 00:05:02.680 utilize the content that I was putting out, We're able 109 00:05:02.720 --> 00:05:05.079 to apply that to their draft plans. That I had 110 00:05:05.120 --> 00:05:08.000 and you know, being just real big on the forefront 111 00:05:08.000 --> 00:05:09.560 of like, hey, you know we're seeing a lot of 112 00:05:09.560 --> 00:05:12.399 this vic fangio, you know, you know defensive you know, 113 00:05:12.399 --> 00:05:14.040 a lot of pattern match, a lot of you know, 114 00:05:14.120 --> 00:05:16.720 cover four, a lot of quarters. And then Mike McDonald's 115 00:05:16.720 --> 00:05:18.399 taking that like a step further. And I think Mike 116 00:05:18.439 --> 00:05:20.639 McDonald's really going to be the next guy that branches 117 00:05:20.680 --> 00:05:23.399 this off from a defensive stance, just like we might 118 00:05:23.399 --> 00:05:26.040 see Ben Johnson kind of extend like the because we've 119 00:05:26.040 --> 00:05:28.480 been like the Sean mcvayer of the last decade, right 120 00:05:28.600 --> 00:05:31.759 like it's all McVeigh coaching Tree guys, you know, that 121 00:05:31.920 --> 00:05:33.720 bridge down from the Shanahan guys. And I think Mike 122 00:05:33.800 --> 00:05:35.639 mcdonald's'll be that way on defense. He's be like the 123 00:05:35.759 --> 00:05:37.800 McVeigh of defense. We're gonna see a lot of the 124 00:05:37.879 --> 00:05:41.000 stuff that he implemented last year get copied this year 125 00:05:41.480 --> 00:05:43.639 and do guys that have had the answers like the 126 00:05:43.720 --> 00:05:46.040 test of where the defenses have been moving have been 127 00:05:46.079 --> 00:05:49.680 a lot of these you know Shanahan, McVeigh, you know, 128 00:05:49.759 --> 00:05:51.600 coaching Tree guys. And then you know I've been kind 129 00:05:51.600 --> 00:05:53.399 of talking up like hey, we should be targeting guys 130 00:05:53.600 --> 00:05:56.279 not on these coaching trees because they're good teams, but like, 131 00:05:56.319 --> 00:05:58.319 these are the guys that are building their offenses to 132 00:05:58.319 --> 00:06:00.199 combat like what a lot of the defense have a 133 00:06:00.279 --> 00:06:03.439 success with. So that's something like I've I've always tried 134 00:06:03.439 --> 00:06:05.319 to incorporated in my work, like what's the what is 135 00:06:05.360 --> 00:06:07.639 the league doing right now? What's the state of the league. 136 00:06:07.720 --> 00:06:10.240 How can we find just some small micro edges that 137 00:06:10.319 --> 00:06:12.439 take advantage of that? Because you know, when you go 138 00:06:12.519 --> 00:06:15.240 back to like this year in particular, like running backs 139 00:06:15.240 --> 00:06:17.720 are getting drafted really highly again, right, everyone's like no, 140 00:06:17.759 --> 00:06:20.040 it's like ADPN running backs is back up because we're 141 00:06:20.040 --> 00:06:21.639 back into like this, you know, a little bit run 142 00:06:21.639 --> 00:06:24.959 first every we're playing these heavier sets. But like, is 143 00:06:24.959 --> 00:06:27.120 there really anything that's where we could zig when we 144 00:06:27.120 --> 00:06:29.759 could zag? Like people want to zig when people are zagging? Right, 145 00:06:30.199 --> 00:06:33.160 And when you're looking at this draft class, what didn't 146 00:06:33.160 --> 00:06:35.240 we have? Not a great skill player draft? 147 00:06:35.319 --> 00:06:35.480 Right? 148 00:06:36.040 --> 00:06:39.720 Uh, not even a great like tremendous offensive line draft either, 149 00:06:40.399 --> 00:06:44.120 just really no good quarterbacks, really light running back room 150 00:06:44.160 --> 00:06:47.399 after Jeremiah Love. We had some some decent wide receivers, 151 00:06:47.439 --> 00:06:49.279 but lighter than it's been in previous years. So it's like, 152 00:06:49.319 --> 00:06:51.399 are we getting this influx of offensive talent that's going 153 00:06:51.480 --> 00:06:53.800 to change this meta? Probably not right. It was a 154 00:06:53.920 --> 00:06:57.360 very defensive heavy draft. So can we flip and gozy 155 00:06:57.439 --> 00:07:00.279 o RB probably not right, or go back to anchor 156 00:07:00.399 --> 00:07:02.879 RB even to an extent. So I do think we're 157 00:07:02.879 --> 00:07:04.680 going to see kind of this continue a little bit 158 00:07:04.720 --> 00:07:06.439 what's been going on. So I don't think it's great 159 00:07:06.480 --> 00:07:08.360 to just like get off and say, like, all, I'm 160 00:07:08.360 --> 00:07:11.040 gonna start hammering wide receivers, but there are other ways 161 00:07:11.040 --> 00:07:14.800 to kind of, you know, pull this into making wide receivers, 162 00:07:14.800 --> 00:07:16.160 so good for you as well. One of the things 163 00:07:16.160 --> 00:07:18.240 I've wrote about is we've kind of flipped and had 164 00:07:18.279 --> 00:07:20.279 a new dead zone, and it's actually occurring in the 165 00:07:20.279 --> 00:07:24.480 wide receiver position. Wide receiver twos, especially the past, you know, 166 00:07:25.399 --> 00:07:27.480 coming out of the COVID years after that big spike, 167 00:07:27.839 --> 00:07:29.680 wide receiver twos have been some of the worst bets 168 00:07:29.720 --> 00:07:31.000 you can make. And it used to be the running 169 00:07:31.000 --> 00:07:33.319 back dead zone. Right now, wide receiver twos have really 170 00:07:33.319 --> 00:07:37.879 fallen behind the running back twos in the landscape, so like, 171 00:07:38.360 --> 00:07:41.000 but one thing that's also happened is wide receiver ones 172 00:07:41.000 --> 00:07:43.639 that would become more important. Like it's so it's not 173 00:07:43.720 --> 00:07:46.240 just hey hammer running backs the first four rounds. It's 174 00:07:46.279 --> 00:07:48.839 kind of turned into where now instead of doing like 175 00:07:48.879 --> 00:07:50.600 an anchor running back build, you can kind of do 176 00:07:50.639 --> 00:07:52.399 like an anchor wide receiver build. You can get an 177 00:07:52.439 --> 00:07:54.720 i'm on Ross, Saint Brown or one of these guys 178 00:07:54.720 --> 00:07:57.240 that are now getting the thirty percent target shares. Because 179 00:07:57.279 --> 00:07:59.040 that went away for a little bit when the eleven 180 00:07:59.079 --> 00:08:01.600 personnel boom happened and we started to see the slot 181 00:08:01.600 --> 00:08:04.160 receiver get more incorporated and the NFL offenses we started 182 00:08:04.160 --> 00:08:06.680 to see those real high end target shares, Like the 183 00:08:06.680 --> 00:08:08.879 guys flirting at thirty percent, it was coming down. It 184 00:08:08.920 --> 00:08:10.560 was like twenty five percent was like a high end 185 00:08:10.600 --> 00:08:13.279 target shair. Now it shifted and NFL offensive said, like, 186 00:08:13.319 --> 00:08:15.639 how can I get Jamar Chase the football at a 187 00:08:15.680 --> 00:08:18.480 thirty percent rate? You know, how can I get Aman 188 00:08:18.560 --> 00:08:21.079 Ross and Saint Brown the football? So you can still 189 00:08:21.120 --> 00:08:23.199 kind of take one of those guys and then come back. Really, 190 00:08:23.199 --> 00:08:25.160 the strength of the wide receiver position now has been 191 00:08:25.199 --> 00:08:28.240 like that wide receiver twenty to like wide receiver forty range. 192 00:08:28.279 --> 00:08:30.279 I believe that is still something applicable this year too 193 00:08:30.279 --> 00:08:31.800 as well. I know I'm going to like a huge 194 00:08:31.800 --> 00:08:34.960 long tangent, but uh, just definitely just circling back, make 195 00:08:34.960 --> 00:08:37.480 this full circle, incorporate what's going on out the league 196 00:08:37.519 --> 00:08:38.320 into your approach. 197 00:08:39.240 --> 00:08:43.639 Okay, you know, I just got to say I love 198 00:08:43.679 --> 00:08:45.879 the answer, and I was sitting and wrapped attention the 199 00:08:46.039 --> 00:08:48.879 entire time. However, we making forty five minutes with that 200 00:08:49.399 --> 00:08:51.679 with that one Rich No, that was that was good 201 00:08:51.720 --> 00:08:53.200 because there was a couple things in there that I 202 00:08:53.240 --> 00:08:56.279 heard that I one thing I talked about specifically on 203 00:08:56.360 --> 00:09:00.559 my last show, this exact concept of marrying the NFL 204 00:09:00.639 --> 00:09:03.200 reality with the fantasy reality a little bit better. And 205 00:09:03.200 --> 00:09:06.840 one of those guys was Justin Fields. That I didn't say. 206 00:09:07.200 --> 00:09:09.919 I wasn't out there saying everybody needs to have Justin Fields. 207 00:09:09.919 --> 00:09:11.279 I was just saying, get him for a buck at 208 00:09:11.279 --> 00:09:13.720 the end of your auction everyone, because hey, what if? 209 00:09:13.799 --> 00:09:16.360 What if? What if? And really the NFL reality is 210 00:09:16.399 --> 00:09:18.240 we knew what he was and we knew that when 211 00:09:18.279 --> 00:09:20.759 he saw bad good defenses that he was going to 212 00:09:20.799 --> 00:09:24.200 bot him out. But I also love the idea that 213 00:09:24.360 --> 00:09:27.600 we're talking about with the whole McVeigh, the eleven personnel. 214 00:09:27.639 --> 00:09:30.120 You know, Zach Taylor and Sean McVay. For a couple 215 00:09:30.120 --> 00:09:31.600 of years in a row, they were leading the league 216 00:09:31.639 --> 00:09:35.279 and eleven personnel. Last year that scaled back significantly, So 217 00:09:35.919 --> 00:09:39.240 excellent points there. And I just saw this in a 218 00:09:40.000 --> 00:09:43.039 mock auction I just got done doing about an hour 219 00:09:43.080 --> 00:09:45.879 and a half ago, which is that all the top 220 00:09:45.919 --> 00:09:49.840 receivers were There was a big increase in what I 221 00:09:49.879 --> 00:09:54.679 saw at the top, which was the Saint Brown the 222 00:09:54.960 --> 00:10:00.559 chase those guys were formerly where you could go forty 223 00:10:00.600 --> 00:10:04.519 five to fifty five dollars. Everybody's feeling that squeeze at 224 00:10:04.519 --> 00:10:06.600 the top, and all those guys were going fifty five 225 00:10:06.600 --> 00:10:09.600 to sixty five. So we're seeing that squeeze at the top. 226 00:10:09.919 --> 00:10:12.399 That's going to be huge for my auction drafters. But 227 00:10:12.759 --> 00:10:15.519 you astutely point out that that's going to be the 228 00:10:15.519 --> 00:10:17.879 squeeze this summer. We're gonna have to pay attention to that. 229 00:10:17.960 --> 00:10:21.720 So let's move on to some situations that let's talk 230 00:10:21.759 --> 00:10:25.679 about these wide receivers, because there's a couple different ways 231 00:10:25.679 --> 00:10:27.279 I want to approach this. One is I want to 232 00:10:27.320 --> 00:10:29.519 talk a little bit about the wide receiver two because 233 00:10:29.519 --> 00:10:32.840 that is becoming more important to nail that it's becoming 234 00:10:32.879 --> 00:10:35.720 more scarce to find those fantasy points at the wide 235 00:10:35.720 --> 00:10:37.960 receiver two spot. And then I want to circle into 236 00:10:38.080 --> 00:10:41.960 some wide receiver groups that just look kind of gross 237 00:10:42.039 --> 00:10:44.240 this year that I'm hoping you can help us sort 238 00:10:44.279 --> 00:10:46.200 out a little bit. So hey, that's why they pay 239 00:10:46.240 --> 00:10:51.080 you the big bucks, right, So let's start with a 240 00:10:51.080 --> 00:10:53.720 couple of wide receiver two questions I have, and Philly 241 00:10:53.840 --> 00:10:56.480 is one of those that you know, we talked about 242 00:10:56.480 --> 00:10:59.960 the lack or you talked about the lack of real 243 00:11:00.159 --> 00:11:04.360 skill position help in the draft this year. Can we 244 00:11:04.440 --> 00:11:08.159 count on McKay lemon there in Philadelphia to emerge as 245 00:11:08.159 --> 00:11:10.120 the wide receiver two? Is that what we should be 246 00:11:10.120 --> 00:11:13.120 betting on. I'm a little bit concerned about what's going 247 00:11:13.159 --> 00:11:16.919 on there, but I don't really love anybody behind him either. 248 00:11:17.279 --> 00:11:20.679 What's your thoughts on the wide receiver two in Philly now? 249 00:11:20.759 --> 00:11:22.720 With aj Brown gone, Yeah. 250 00:11:22.519 --> 00:11:24.960 I think it's going to be more of a development 251 00:11:24.960 --> 00:11:27.919 a development curve probably for MacKaye Lemon. He's been one 252 00:11:27.919 --> 00:11:29.639 of the guys I think that's been going a little 253 00:11:29.679 --> 00:11:33.279 bit overvalued in these these early drafts. And for a 254 00:11:33.279 --> 00:11:37.799 couple of reasons. One, he lands in an offense, even 255 00:11:37.799 --> 00:11:41.000 if we expect them to be improved and add new 256 00:11:41.000 --> 00:11:44.200 wrinkles under Shawn Manyon, maybe maybe they are a team 257 00:11:44.240 --> 00:11:46.440 that plays a little bit more of eleven, some more 258 00:11:46.519 --> 00:11:49.440 under center stuff this year. This is still a team 259 00:11:49.559 --> 00:11:53.000 under Jalen Hurts that is going to be a lower 260 00:11:53.039 --> 00:11:55.480 passing volume team, not only by nature of just Jalen 261 00:11:55.519 --> 00:11:57.559 Hurts and his structure of play style, but also like, 262 00:11:57.600 --> 00:12:00.840 this is a really great defense still, and this is 263 00:12:00.840 --> 00:12:03.279 a team still built on running the football a lot, 264 00:12:03.519 --> 00:12:05.919 So you're one not going to have like an immense 265 00:12:06.279 --> 00:12:09.840 high pass rate anyways for this team from a top downstance, 266 00:12:09.879 --> 00:12:12.039 which already puts the squeeze in a couple of guys. 267 00:12:12.519 --> 00:12:15.440 Then from MacKaye Lemon himself, I mean, this is a 268 00:12:15.480 --> 00:12:18.559 guy who coming out of college is more of a 269 00:12:18.639 --> 00:12:21.159 slot centric player. I believe he's going to develop and 270 00:12:21.200 --> 00:12:23.720 he can play outside, but he is still a smaller 271 00:12:23.759 --> 00:12:26.960 player as well. So how much does he play in 272 00:12:27.080 --> 00:12:28.879 one to two wide receiver sets on a team that's 273 00:12:28.919 --> 00:12:30.639 going to run the football a lot early? I think 274 00:12:30.679 --> 00:12:33.159 there's gonna be a development curve from that, so early 275 00:12:33.200 --> 00:12:36.200 in the season we might see more Dontavian Wicks than 276 00:12:36.240 --> 00:12:38.559 like the average gamer wants to see that uses a 277 00:12:39.159 --> 00:12:42.200 top forty pick on mackay Lemon. He might be someone 278 00:12:42.200 --> 00:12:44.559 that ramps up as the season goes on, starts playing 279 00:12:44.559 --> 00:12:46.320 in more two wide receiver sets as it goes on. 280 00:12:46.480 --> 00:12:48.200 But he's gonna have to get over the hurdle of 281 00:12:48.320 --> 00:12:50.720 one being a smaller guy that's under one hundred and 282 00:12:50.759 --> 00:12:53.399 eighty pounds, and you know how good of a run 283 00:12:53.440 --> 00:12:55.879 blocker is he going to be out of the gate. Like, 284 00:12:55.879 --> 00:12:57.720 those are things that we just aren't gonna be able 285 00:12:57.720 --> 00:12:59.919 to answer right until we see him on the foot 286 00:13:00.039 --> 00:13:02.200 ball field. So I think that those are big obstacles 287 00:13:02.200 --> 00:13:05.679 for him to open up the season. I think that 288 00:13:05.720 --> 00:13:08.440 you're just looking at the Eagles and in general, if 289 00:13:08.440 --> 00:13:11.759 you're really strongly about Devonte Smith, and then other than that, 290 00:13:11.919 --> 00:13:13.720 I think you're just gonna see a lot of these 291 00:13:13.720 --> 00:13:15.840 guys be more of like better and the best ball types. 292 00:13:15.840 --> 00:13:17.120 And I don't want to use it as a cop out. 293 00:13:17.360 --> 00:13:19.720 I just think that when we see the Eagles, they're 294 00:13:19.720 --> 00:13:21.720 gonna be a team that again probably bottom of the 295 00:13:21.720 --> 00:13:24.519 half of the league and pass rate, and one of 296 00:13:24.519 --> 00:13:26.720 their players is going to occupy a really immense high 297 00:13:26.799 --> 00:13:29.720 target share on a smaller pie, So it just gives 298 00:13:29.720 --> 00:13:31.879 me more confidence DeVante Smith the other guys, I really 299 00:13:31.919 --> 00:13:34.000 haven't been drafting. Das Gotter. I think is fine as 300 00:13:34.039 --> 00:13:37.200 like a cheap tight end too. We know tight touchdown 301 00:13:37.200 --> 00:13:39.480 aggressions coming for him. But I do think the other 302 00:13:39.519 --> 00:13:41.799 guys are gonna be more of like Spike Week type 303 00:13:41.799 --> 00:13:44.360 players and low floor type players as well. 304 00:13:45.120 --> 00:13:48.200 Yeah, I think that answers my question well because it 305 00:13:48.600 --> 00:13:50.840 kind of feels like a who cares type of situation. 306 00:13:50.960 --> 00:13:56.240 But I certainly think that the situation overall isn't really 307 00:13:56.320 --> 00:13:58.759 what I'm very excited about. So you nail that with 308 00:13:59.360 --> 00:14:03.080 the overall offensive environment. What about in Green Bay? Things 309 00:14:03.120 --> 00:14:06.399 have quote unquote cleared up quite a bit with them 310 00:14:06.759 --> 00:14:10.039 getting rid of a couple guys, but we still have 311 00:14:10.120 --> 00:14:13.799 a situation where I think the offensive environment they want 312 00:14:13.840 --> 00:14:15.840 to run the football as much as they can. They 313 00:14:15.840 --> 00:14:18.759 don't seem to like letting Jordan Love get back and 314 00:14:18.840 --> 00:14:21.399 rip it, even though we think he can. So we 315 00:14:21.480 --> 00:14:24.759 know we have Christian Watson there, but he's never been 316 00:14:24.799 --> 00:14:27.080 the guy who's been an iron man. We know this. 317 00:14:27.759 --> 00:14:31.200 Who are we betting on behind Watson? And do we care? 318 00:14:32.480 --> 00:14:34.240 Yeah, I still think we do here because this is 319 00:14:34.279 --> 00:14:36.360 still one of those offenses that we said is run 320 00:14:36.440 --> 00:14:40.200 under you know, Micha Lafleurer from that mcshanahan tree. They run. 321 00:14:40.679 --> 00:14:43.080 They don't throw the ball a lot, but when they do, 322 00:14:43.360 --> 00:14:46.519 it does breed efficiency. And you know, there's the reason 323 00:14:46.679 --> 00:14:49.240 why Malik will has resurrected his career, right, you know, 324 00:14:49.480 --> 00:14:51.000 coming out of a green bay and why he was 325 00:14:51.000 --> 00:14:53.399 able to get the money he had and a new 326 00:14:53.399 --> 00:14:55.600 lifeline and a new lease on being a starting quarterback 327 00:14:55.600 --> 00:14:57.320 in the NFL when it looked like, you know, when 328 00:14:57.320 --> 00:15:00.639 he left Tennessee, like is this just is this don 329 00:15:00.720 --> 00:15:03.279 though for him? So when they do throw it's still 330 00:15:03.279 --> 00:15:05.440 as hyper officially, Jordan Love is an over five percent 331 00:15:05.519 --> 00:15:08.720 touchdown rate in each of the past three years. We 332 00:15:08.799 --> 00:15:11.919 know that this Michael Parsons isn't gonna be available to 333 00:15:11.919 --> 00:15:14.159 start the year, like this is could the defense be 334 00:15:14.200 --> 00:15:16.039 a little bit worse to start out? The offensive line 335 00:15:16.080 --> 00:15:18.720 really kind of struggled last year to stay healthy. They 336 00:15:18.759 --> 00:15:21.519 didn't make a lot of like really sweeping ads to 337 00:15:21.519 --> 00:15:24.720 that offensive line. Getting Zach tom back will be huge, 338 00:15:24.720 --> 00:15:26.480 but like they're still counting on you know, Aaron Banks, 339 00:15:26.519 --> 00:15:28.879 staying healthy, Eldon Jenkins staying healthy. They brought in Rashid 340 00:15:28.919 --> 00:15:31.360 Walker as kind of like their big signing, but like 341 00:15:31.399 --> 00:15:33.440 he was, he really took a step back for Carolina 342 00:15:33.519 --> 00:15:35.320 last year. So what if they're just not able to 343 00:15:35.360 --> 00:15:37.000 run the football as well, the defense isn't good and 344 00:15:37.000 --> 00:15:39.559 they're forced to throw, and you kind of hit on 345 00:15:39.600 --> 00:15:41.240 the big thing here is it's just it's not as 346 00:15:41.320 --> 00:15:43.600 much of a log jam as we've had in years 347 00:15:43.639 --> 00:15:47.200 past where they've really rotated these guys, you know, Wis 348 00:15:47.200 --> 00:15:49.960 and Romeo Dubbs. Romeo Dobbs last year was the only 349 00:15:50.120 --> 00:15:53.720 receiver that they had on the roster that ran a 350 00:15:53.759 --> 00:15:56.960 route on over fifty percent of the dropbacks. So that's 351 00:15:57.000 --> 00:15:58.919 gonna go up this year. We could see up to 352 00:15:59.159 --> 00:16:01.159 up to just being the three guys where it's Watson, 353 00:16:01.240 --> 00:16:04.559 Red and Golden. That wild card, I believe will be 354 00:16:05.000 --> 00:16:07.799 just how much does Reid play and one to two 355 00:16:07.840 --> 00:16:09.360 wide receiver sets. And I want to make this the 356 00:16:09.399 --> 00:16:11.360 whole thing, like why the thesis of the show is, 357 00:16:11.360 --> 00:16:15.159 but the thing that has held Jonathan Jayden Reid back 358 00:16:15.200 --> 00:16:17.799 from like really being like a great fantasy asset these 359 00:16:17.840 --> 00:16:20.639 past couple years isn't just necessarily injury stuff. Is through 360 00:16:20.679 --> 00:16:22.799 three years in the NFL, he's run eight total pass 361 00:16:22.879 --> 00:16:26.679 routes on one to two wide receiver sets. Eight total. 362 00:16:27.159 --> 00:16:30.200 Last year, Matthew Golden as a rookie ran seventy two. 363 00:16:30.799 --> 00:16:33.159 Like just to give you some context of this, So 364 00:16:33.279 --> 00:16:35.480 like we still need him to be on the field, 365 00:16:36.360 --> 00:16:37.799 and you know, Jane Reid is in that capacity of 366 00:16:37.840 --> 00:16:41.720 getting that high route rate. Christian Watson is now. Christian Watson. Also, 367 00:16:41.919 --> 00:16:43.360 one of the things that they did with him last 368 00:16:43.399 --> 00:16:46.240 year is he just wasn't using that like Alec Pierce 369 00:16:46.320 --> 00:16:48.600 type role where he was just a lidlifter, get open 370 00:16:48.639 --> 00:16:52.519 downfield crate splash plays. He ran a lot more routes 371 00:16:52.519 --> 00:16:54.279 on the intermediate level, a lot more comebacks, a lot 372 00:16:54.320 --> 00:16:58.519 of out routes, just gave him more access to targets 373 00:16:58.519 --> 00:17:00.360 that have a higher success rate than he had at 374 00:17:00.440 --> 00:17:02.480 that point of his career. And that's why he actually 375 00:17:02.519 --> 00:17:04.559 wasn't as volidile over the back half of the last 376 00:17:04.599 --> 00:17:07.200 year when he was playing as he was in previous years. 377 00:17:07.440 --> 00:17:09.440 Now we're gonna get him, you know, on the field 378 00:17:09.519 --> 00:17:12.920 for hopefully, you know, knock on wood while he's staying healthy, 379 00:17:13.200 --> 00:17:16.920 you know, seventy to eighty percent of the team dropbacks 380 00:17:16.960 --> 00:17:19.880 per game. This can really unlock a player that has 381 00:17:20.000 --> 00:17:23.799 that real high you know, cholesterol target upside right for 382 00:17:23.880 --> 00:17:27.079 fantasy football, and we're just gonna get him more access 383 00:17:27.119 --> 00:17:30.119 to routes and targets. And like that's really alluring, and 384 00:17:30.160 --> 00:17:32.519 I know the top down gamer pullback will be like 385 00:17:32.559 --> 00:17:34.799 he just can't stay healthy. Well, listen, we've played this 386 00:17:34.839 --> 00:17:37.160 along this game a long time. Your injury prone till 387 00:17:37.160 --> 00:17:39.880 you're not. And if that's gonna be, that's already priced in, right, 388 00:17:40.160 --> 00:17:42.720 he's going like wide receiver twenty eight, wide receiver twenty nine. 389 00:17:42.759 --> 00:17:44.880 This is not like the wide receiver fourteen. It's not 390 00:17:44.920 --> 00:17:47.559 even as high as where he's been performing since he 391 00:17:47.680 --> 00:17:50.279 entered the league. I mean, he's the wide receiver eleven 392 00:17:50.319 --> 00:17:53.119 in fantasy points per out run. And again, these routes 393 00:17:53.160 --> 00:17:54.920 are now open to him. He's not gonna be the 394 00:17:54.920 --> 00:17:57.200 guy coming off the field while he's available, you know, 395 00:17:57.279 --> 00:17:59.759 in these one to two wide receiver sets. So he's 396 00:17:59.759 --> 00:18:01.759 been one of my favorite players to go to this 397 00:18:02.160 --> 00:18:04.559 year because this is a guy that has that huge 398 00:18:04.759 --> 00:18:08.440 upside per target and if he does somehow luckbox into 399 00:18:08.839 --> 00:18:11.200 one hundred and twenty five one hundred and thirty five 400 00:18:11.240 --> 00:18:13.960 targets on his profile. This is a guy that has 401 00:18:13.960 --> 00:18:15.720