Speaker 1: Welcome to the Auction Brief.
Speaker 2: There's a joy in these games.
Speaker 1: Taking you on a journey through fantasy football, the law,
Speaker 1: and life. We saw your depends on.
Speaker 2: How much you want, and now you're legal analyst and
Speaker 2: auction draft expert here to help you.
Speaker 1: Dominate your fantasy drafts. Your host, Drew Davenport, there are
Speaker 1: full hearts.
Speaker 2: Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Auction Brief. As the lady said,
Speaker 2: I'm your host, Drew Davenport, and thank you so much
Speaker 2: for joining me for another episode. As you know, we
Speaker 2: have one goal here on the Auction Brief, and that
Speaker 2: is to help all of you win more titles. And
Speaker 2: one of the ways that we do that is by
Speaker 2: bringing the best and brightest minds in the fantasy community
Speaker 2: on here from my weekly Discussions with Drew. These conversations
Speaker 2: are there to help you with the most difficult fantasy
Speaker 2: situations you're going to face in your drafts this summer.
Speaker 2: Let's not delay. Let's get right to this week's guest
Speaker 2: on another installment of Discussions with Drew.
Speaker 3: Time for Discussions with Drew, in depth conversations with the
Speaker 3: brightest minds in the fantasy industry.
Speaker 2: Welcome into this week's discussions with Drew. I have one
Speaker 2: of my favorite guests that I have every summer, mister
Speaker 2: rich Riebar Lord Reeves himself. Find him on Twitter at
Speaker 2: Lord Reeves. That's our ee bs. And I just saw
Speaker 2: Richie yesterday. It's scott Fishbowl in Cincinnati, and it's wonderful
Speaker 2: when I get this much Reeves in my life. Two
Speaker 2: days in a row, I get to hang out with
Speaker 2: the man himself over there at Sharp Football Analysis. Rich
Speaker 2: thanks so much for being here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, anytime. It's always great to catch up with you
Speaker 1: two and all all the Ohio guys. You know, we
Speaker 1: have a big, you know, deep, you know, contingency of
Speaker 1: fantasy footballers in Ohio, and a lot of times people
Speaker 1: don't realize that Ohio is a much larger state than
Speaker 1: people realize. And we don't all live like super close together,
Speaker 1: like I can't get a twenty minutes and we can
Speaker 1: just hang out. So it's always nice when we get
Speaker 1: a chance to have a weekend spend some extended time
Speaker 1: together and be honest, like when people hear about us
Speaker 1: and we don't talk about football at all these things, we
Speaker 1: more or less hang out, and you know, hang out
Speaker 1: as actual friends too, outside of the football community. But
Speaker 1: it's nice getting us all together anytime we can have it.
Speaker 2: That's a point that I don't think a lot of
Speaker 2: people believe, but we don't actually just get together and
Speaker 2: talk about football. In fact, that's probably not one of
Speaker 2: the top ten topics we talk about usually. But well, yeah,
Speaker 2: thank you so much for being here. And like you said,
Speaker 2: Ohio's got a really deep bench and just this week,
Speaker 2: you guys had an opening and a dynasty league. I
Speaker 2: had to turn it down. I just have too much
Speaker 2: going on in the summers. I couldn't do it. And
Speaker 2: of course then what Ian got the call. So when
Speaker 2: you can go to your bench and grab Ian Hartitz,
Speaker 2: that's a pretty good Ohio can It was great seeing
Speaker 2: all those guys, Chris Allen and everybody that Scott Fish Bowl.
Speaker 2: But we have important things that we got to get
Speaker 2: to because I'm trying to make the show all about
Speaker 2: the fantasy and less screwing around. This year, we're gonna
Speaker 2: get you out in forty five minutes. But me and
Speaker 2: you we both like to run our mouths, so hey,
Speaker 2: we'll try our best. But it's June, and I say
Speaker 2: this to my followers every time in June, and I
Speaker 2: know some people get a little tired of hearing it,
Speaker 2: but I love talking about lessons that we learned in
Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. It's just one of my favorite things
Speaker 2: because everyone has a different take on what they took
Speaker 2: away from last year, what didn't work. What worked is
Speaker 2: something in your mind, something popp into your head that
Speaker 2: you think from twenty twenty five you're going to be
Speaker 2: really thinking about going into next season.
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily believe like like hard lessons, but you know,
Speaker 1: anyone that's followed my work, I believe, you know, ever
Speaker 1: since I got in the industry, and especially you know
Speaker 1: the last few years that I've started to do like
Speaker 1: a personal draft kit, like a lot of people that
Speaker 1: have branched off on their own, you know, you know branches.
Speaker 1: You know, JJ puts out a great.
Speaker 2: One as well.
Speaker 1: But one of the things that's been a huge topic
Speaker 1: of this entire offseason is, you know, the state of
Speaker 1: the NFL. You know, two tight end sets, right, heavy sets.
Speaker 1: Everyone's talking about that, you know, the coverage. But I've
Speaker 1: been putting out a series about the you know, NFL
Speaker 1: trends for ever since I've been doing this Draft Kit
Speaker 1: with Warren, and I've been really ahead of the curve
Speaker 1: of a lot of this stuff. You know. One of
Speaker 1: the things about fans football that gamers tend to, I
Speaker 1: think overlook is just not tying into the state of
Speaker 1: the league and what's happening in the league and into
Speaker 1: their approach and gaming. And that can even you know,
Speaker 1: get disregard a little bit from an analytical stance. When
Speaker 1: you're just like, all right, this worked last year, this
Speaker 1: has worked for the last decade, It's like, well, what
Speaker 1: kind of rule changes have there've been, what are teams
Speaker 1: doing now? And being able to kind of you know,
Speaker 1: make that applicable to kind of your approach because I
Speaker 1: went through last year and pulled some stuff for you know,
Speaker 1: they're like, oh, you know, go back and pull some
Speaker 1: stuff that you got right so we could promote for
Speaker 1: the draft kit and stuff. And I'm going through my
Speaker 1: draft plan. I'm like I wrote about all like a
Speaker 1: lot of these threads that you see, like I had
Speaker 1: all this stuff written about going into last year, and
Speaker 1: a lot of people that were you know, able to
Speaker 1: utilize the content that I was putting out, We're able
Speaker 1: to apply that to their draft plans. That I had
Speaker 1: and you know, being just real big on the forefront
Speaker 1: of like, hey, you know we're seeing a lot of
Speaker 1: this vic fangio, you know, you know defensive you know,
Speaker 1: a lot of pattern match, a lot of you know,
Speaker 1: cover four, a lot of quarters. And then Mike McDonald's
Speaker 1: taking that like a step further. And I think Mike
Speaker 1: McDonald's really going to be the next guy that branches
Speaker 1: this off from a defensive stance, just like we might
Speaker 1: see Ben Johnson kind of extend like the because we've
Speaker 1: been like the Sean mcvayer of the last decade, right
Speaker 1: like it's all McVeigh coaching Tree guys, you know, that
Speaker 1: bridge down from the Shanahan guys. And I think Mike
Speaker 1: mcdonald's'll be that way on defense. He's be like the
Speaker 1: McVeigh of defense. We're gonna see a lot of the
Speaker 1: stuff that he implemented last year get copied this year
Speaker 1: and do guys that have had the answers like the
Speaker 1: test of where the defenses have been moving have been
Speaker 1: a lot of these you know Shanahan, McVeigh, you know,
Speaker 1: coaching Tree guys. And then you know I've been kind
Speaker 1: of talking up like hey, we should be targeting guys
Speaker 1: not on these coaching trees because they're good teams, but like,
Speaker 1: these are the guys that are building their offenses to
Speaker 1: combat like what a lot of the defense have a
Speaker 1: success with. So that's something like I've I've always tried
Speaker 1: to incorporated in my work, like what's the what is
Speaker 1: the league doing right now? What's the state of the league.
Speaker 1: How can we find just some small micro edges that
Speaker 1: take advantage of that? Because you know, when you go
Speaker 1: back to like this year in particular, like running backs
Speaker 1: are getting drafted really highly again, right, everyone's like no,
Speaker 1: it's like ADPN running backs is back up because we're
Speaker 1: back into like this, you know, a little bit run
Speaker 1: first every we're playing these heavier sets. But like, is
Speaker 1: there really anything that's where we could zig when we
Speaker 1: could zag? Like people want to zig when people are zagging? Right,
Speaker 1: And when you're looking at this draft class, what didn't
Speaker 1: we have? Not a great skill player draft?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: Uh, not even a great like tremendous offensive line draft either,
Speaker 1: just really no good quarterbacks, really light running back room
Speaker 1: after Jeremiah Love. We had some some decent wide receivers,
Speaker 1: but lighter than it's been in previous years. So it's like,
Speaker 1: are we getting this influx of offensive talent that's going
Speaker 1: to change this meta? Probably not right. It was a
Speaker 1: very defensive heavy draft. So can we flip and gozy
Speaker 1: o RB probably not right, or go back to anchor
Speaker 1: RB even to an extent. So I do think we're
Speaker 1: going to see kind of this continue a little bit
Speaker 1: what's been going on. So I don't think it's great
Speaker 1: to just like get off and say, like, all, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna start hammering wide receivers, but there are other ways
Speaker 1: to kind of, you know, pull this into making wide receivers,
Speaker 1: so good for you as well. One of the things
Speaker 1: I've wrote about is we've kind of flipped and had
Speaker 1: a new dead zone, and it's actually occurring in the
Speaker 1: wide receiver position. Wide receiver twos, especially the past, you know,
Speaker 1: coming out of the COVID years after that big spike,
Speaker 1: wide receiver twos have been some of the worst bets
Speaker 1: you can make. And it used to be the running
Speaker 1: back dead zone. Right now, wide receiver twos have really
Speaker 1: fallen behind the running back twos in the landscape, so like,
Speaker 1: but one thing that's also happened is wide receiver ones
Speaker 1: that would become more important. Like it's so it's not
Speaker 1: just hey hammer running backs the first four rounds. It's
Speaker 1: kind of turned into where now instead of doing like
Speaker 1: an anchor running back build, you can kind of do
Speaker 1: like an anchor wide receiver build. You can get an
Speaker 1: i'm on Ross, Saint Brown or one of these guys
Speaker 1: that are now getting the thirty percent target shares. Because
Speaker 1: that went away for a little bit when the eleven
Speaker 1: personnel boom happened and we started to see the slot
Speaker 1: receiver get more incorporated and the NFL offenses we started
Speaker 1: to see those real high end target shares, Like the
Speaker 1: guys flirting at thirty percent, it was coming down. It
Speaker 1: was like twenty five percent was like a high end
Speaker 1: target shair. Now it shifted and NFL offensive said, like,
Speaker 1: how can I get Jamar Chase the football at a
Speaker 1: thirty percent rate? You know, how can I get Aman
Speaker 1: Ross and Saint Brown the football? So you can still
Speaker 1: kind of take one of those guys and then come back. Really,
Speaker 1: the strength of the wide receiver position now has been
Speaker 1: like that wide receiver twenty to like wide receiver forty range.
Speaker 1: I believe that is still something applicable this year too
Speaker 1: as well. I know I'm going to like a huge
Speaker 1: long tangent, but uh, just definitely just circling back, make
Speaker 1: this full circle, incorporate what's going on out the league
Speaker 1: into your approach.
Speaker 2: Okay, you know, I just got to say I love
Speaker 2: the answer, and I was sitting and wrapped attention the
Speaker 2: entire time. However, we making forty five minutes with that
Speaker 2: with that one Rich No, that was that was good
Speaker 2: because there was a couple things in there that I
Speaker 2: heard that I one thing I talked about specifically on
Speaker 2: my last show, this exact concept of marrying the NFL
Speaker 2: reality with the fantasy reality a little bit better. And
Speaker 2: one of those guys was Justin Fields. That I didn't say.
Speaker 2: I wasn't out there saying everybody needs to have Justin Fields.
Speaker 2: I was just saying, get him for a buck at
Speaker 2: the end of your auction everyone, because hey, what if?
Speaker 2: What if? What if? And really the NFL reality is
Speaker 2: we knew what he was and we knew that when
Speaker 2: he saw bad good defenses that he was going to
Speaker 2: bot him out. But I also love the idea that
Speaker 2: we're talking about with the whole McVeigh, the eleven personnel.
Speaker 2: You know, Zach Taylor and Sean McVay. For a couple
Speaker 2: of years in a row, they were leading the league
Speaker 2: and eleven personnel. Last year that scaled back significantly, So
Speaker 2: excellent points there. And I just saw this in a
Speaker 2: mock auction I just got done doing about an hour
Speaker 2: and a half ago, which is that all the top
Speaker 2: receivers were There was a big increase in what I
Speaker 2: saw at the top, which was the Saint Brown the
Speaker 2: chase those guys were formerly where you could go forty
Speaker 2: five to fifty five dollars. Everybody's feeling that squeeze at
Speaker 2: the top, and all those guys were going fifty five
Speaker 2: to sixty five. So we're seeing that squeeze at the top.
Speaker 2: That's going to be huge for my auction drafters. But
Speaker 2: you astutely point out that that's going to be the
Speaker 2: squeeze this summer. We're gonna have to pay attention to that.
Speaker 2: So let's move on to some situations that let's talk
Speaker 2: about these wide receivers, because there's a couple different ways
Speaker 2: I want to approach this. One is I want to
Speaker 2: talk a little bit about the wide receiver two because
Speaker 2: that is becoming more important to nail that it's becoming
Speaker 2: more scarce to find those fantasy points at the wide
Speaker 2: receiver two spot. And then I want to circle into
Speaker 2: some wide receiver groups that just look kind of gross
Speaker 2: this year that I'm hoping you can help us sort
Speaker 2: out a little bit. So hey, that's why they pay
Speaker 2: you the big bucks, right, So let's start with a
Speaker 2: couple of wide receiver two questions I have, and Philly
Speaker 2: is one of those that you know, we talked about
Speaker 2: the lack or you talked about the lack of real
Speaker 2: skill position help in the draft this year. Can we
Speaker 2: count on McKay lemon there in Philadelphia to emerge as
Speaker 2: the wide receiver two? Is that what we should be
Speaker 2: betting on. I'm a little bit concerned about what's going
Speaker 2: on there, but I don't really love anybody behind him either.
Speaker 2: What's your thoughts on the wide receiver two in Philly now?
Speaker 2: With aj Brown gone, Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be more of a development
Speaker 1: a development curve probably for MacKaye Lemon. He's been one
Speaker 1: of the guys I think that's been going a little
Speaker 1: bit overvalued in these these early drafts. And for a
Speaker 1: couple of reasons. One, he lands in an offense, even
Speaker 1: if we expect them to be improved and add new
Speaker 1: wrinkles under Shawn Manyon, maybe maybe they are a team
Speaker 1: that plays a little bit more of eleven, some more
Speaker 1: under center stuff this year. This is still a team
Speaker 1: under Jalen Hurts that is going to be a lower
Speaker 1: passing volume team, not only by nature of just Jalen
Speaker 1: Hurts and his structure of play style, but also like,
Speaker 1: this is a really great defense still, and this is
Speaker 1: a team still built on running the football a lot,
Speaker 1: So you're one not going to have like an immense
Speaker 1: high pass rate anyways for this team from a top downstance,
Speaker 1: which already puts the squeeze in a couple of guys.
Speaker 1: Then from MacKaye Lemon himself, I mean, this is a
Speaker 1: guy who coming out of college is more of a
Speaker 1: slot centric player. I believe he's going to develop and
Speaker 1: he can play outside, but he is still a smaller
Speaker 1: player as well. So how much does he play in
Speaker 1: one to two wide receiver sets on a team that's
Speaker 1: going to run the football a lot early? I think
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a development curve from that, so early
Speaker 1: in the season we might see more Dontavian Wicks than
Speaker 1: like the average gamer wants to see that uses a
Speaker 1: top forty pick on mackay Lemon. He might be someone
Speaker 1: that ramps up as the season goes on, starts playing
Speaker 1: in more two wide receiver sets as it goes on.
Speaker 1: But he's gonna have to get over the hurdle of
Speaker 1: one being a smaller guy that's under one hundred and
Speaker 1: eighty pounds, and you know how good of a run
Speaker 1: blocker is he going to be out of the gate. Like,
Speaker 1: those are things that we just aren't gonna be able
Speaker 1: to answer right until we see him on the foot
Speaker 1: ball field. So I think that those are big obstacles
Speaker 1: for him to open up the season. I think that
Speaker 1: you're just looking at the Eagles and in general, if
Speaker 1: you're really strongly about Devonte Smith, and then other than that,
Speaker 1: I think you're just gonna see a lot of these
Speaker 1: guys be more of like better and the best ball types.
Speaker 1: And I don't want to use it as a cop out.
Speaker 1: I just think that when we see the Eagles, they're
Speaker 1: gonna be a team that again probably bottom of the
Speaker 1: half of the league and pass rate, and one of
Speaker 1: their players is going to occupy a really immense high
Speaker 1: target share on a smaller pie, So it just gives
Speaker 1: me more confidence DeVante Smith the other guys, I really
Speaker 1: haven't been drafting. Das Gotter. I think is fine as
Speaker 1: like a cheap tight end too. We know tight touchdown
Speaker 1: aggressions coming for him. But I do think the other
Speaker 1: guys are gonna be more of like Spike Week type
Speaker 1: players and low floor type players as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that answers my question well because it
Speaker 2: kind of feels like a who cares type of situation.
Speaker 2: But I certainly think that the situation overall isn't really
Speaker 2: what I'm very excited about. So you nail that with
Speaker 2: the overall offensive environment. What about in Green Bay? Things
Speaker 2: have quote unquote cleared up quite a bit with them
Speaker 2: getting rid of a couple guys, but we still have
Speaker 2: a situation where I think the offensive environment they want
Speaker 2: to run the football as much as they can. They
Speaker 2: don't seem to like letting Jordan Love get back and
Speaker 2: rip it, even though we think he can. So we
Speaker 2: know we have Christian Watson there, but he's never been
Speaker 2: the guy who's been an iron man. We know this.
Speaker 2: Who are we betting on behind Watson? And do we care?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I still think we do here because this is
Speaker 1: still one of those offenses that we said is run
Speaker 1: under you know, Micha Lafleurer from that mcshanahan tree. They run.
Speaker 1: They don't throw the ball a lot, but when they do,
Speaker 1: it does breed efficiency. And you know, there's the reason
Speaker 1: why Malik will has resurrected his career, right, you know,
Speaker 1: coming out of a green bay and why he was
Speaker 1: able to get the money he had and a new
Speaker 1: lifeline and a new lease on being a starting quarterback
Speaker 1: in the NFL when it looked like, you know, when
Speaker 1: he left Tennessee, like is this just is this don
Speaker 1: though for him? So when they do throw it's still
Speaker 1: as hyper officially, Jordan Love is an over five percent
Speaker 1: touchdown rate in each of the past three years. We
Speaker 1: know that this Michael Parsons isn't gonna be available to
Speaker 1: start the year, like this is could the defense be
Speaker 1: a little bit worse to start out? The offensive line
Speaker 1: really kind of struggled last year to stay healthy. They
Speaker 1: didn't make a lot of like really sweeping ads to
Speaker 1: that offensive line. Getting Zach tom back will be huge,
Speaker 1: but like they're still counting on you know, Aaron Banks,
Speaker 1: staying healthy, Eldon Jenkins staying healthy. They brought in Rashid
Speaker 1: Walker as kind of like their big signing, but like
Speaker 1: he was, he really took a step back for Carolina
Speaker 1: last year. So what if they're just not able to
Speaker 1: run the football as well, the defense isn't good and
Speaker 1: they're forced to throw, and you kind of hit on
Speaker 1: the big thing here is it's just it's not as
Speaker 1: much of a log jam as we've had in years
Speaker 1: past where they've really rotated these guys, you know, Wis
Speaker 1: and Romeo Dubbs. Romeo Dobbs last year was the only
Speaker 1: receiver that they had on the roster that ran a
Speaker 1: route on over fifty percent of the dropbacks. So that's
Speaker 1: gonna go up this year. We could see up to
Speaker 1: up to just being the three guys where it's Watson,
Speaker 1: Red and Golden. That wild card, I believe will be
Speaker 1: just how much does Reid play and one to two
Speaker 1: wide receiver sets. And I want to make this the
Speaker 1: whole thing, like why the thesis of the show is,
Speaker 1: but the thing that has held Jonathan Jayden Reid back
Speaker 1: from like really being like a great fantasy asset these
Speaker 1: past couple years isn't just necessarily injury stuff. Is through
Speaker 1: three years in the NFL, he's run eight total pass
Speaker 1: routes on one to two wide receiver sets. Eight total.
Speaker 1: Last year, Matthew Golden as a rookie ran seventy two.
Speaker 1: Like just to give you some context of this, So
Speaker 1: like we still need him to be on the field,
Speaker 1: and you know, Jane Reid is in that capacity of
Speaker 1: getting that high route rate. Christian Watson is now. Christian Watson. Also,
Speaker 1: one of the things that they did with him last
Speaker 1: year is he just wasn't using that like Alec Pierce
Speaker 1: type role where he was just a lidlifter, get open
Speaker 1: downfield crate splash plays. He ran a lot more routes
Speaker 1: on the intermediate level, a lot more comebacks, a lot
Speaker 1: of out routes, just gave him more access to targets
Speaker 1: that have a higher success rate than he had at
Speaker 1: that point of his career. And that's why he actually
Speaker 1: wasn't as volidile over the back half of the last
Speaker 1: year when he was playing as he was in previous years.
Speaker 1: Now we're gonna get him, you know, on the field
Speaker 1: for hopefully, you know, knock on wood while he's staying healthy,
Speaker 1: you know, seventy to eighty percent of the team dropbacks
Speaker 1: per game. This can really unlock a player that has
Speaker 1: that real high you know, cholesterol target upside right for
Speaker 1: fantasy football, and we're just gonna get him more access
Speaker 1: to routes and targets. And like that's really alluring, and
Speaker 1: I know the top down gamer pullback will be like
Speaker 1: he just can't stay healthy. Well, listen, we've played this
Speaker 1: along this game a long time. Your injury prone till
Speaker 1: you're not. And if that's gonna be, that's already priced in, right,
Speaker 1: he's going like wide receiver twenty eight, wide receiver twenty nine.
Speaker 1: This is not like the wide receiver fourteen. It's not
Speaker 1: even as high as where he's been performing since he
Speaker 1: entered the league. I mean, he's the wide receiver eleven
Speaker 1: in fantasy points per out run. And again, these routes
Speaker 1: are now open to him. He's not gonna be the
Speaker 1: guy coming off the field while he's available, you know,
Speaker 1: in these one to two wide receiver sets. So he's
Speaker 1: been one of my favorite players to go to this
Speaker 1: year because this is a guy that has that huge
Speaker 1: upside per target and if he does somehow luckbox into
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty five one hundred and thirty five
Speaker 1: targets on his profile. This is a guy that has
Speaker 1: just like an immense top down ceiling.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I don't want to keep talking about this auction,
Speaker 2: but it's fresh in my head that he just went
Speaker 2: for nineteen bucks And that's absolutely the bet you want
Speaker 2: to make because you can make that bet as a
Speaker 2: wide receiver three and sometimes if you're real throwing a
Speaker 2: lot of money a wide receiver he can be or flex.
Speaker 2: That's just wonderful. That's exactly what we're trying to do
Speaker 2: in an auction. And so I think that the timidity
Speaker 2: of the prior Watson sort of anchoring that we have
Speaker 2: that hey, this guy can't stay healthy is going to
Speaker 2: help us find that value. I hope that doesn't continue
Speaker 2: to rise, because that's right where I want to take him,
Speaker 2: you know where he's sitting there right now. But I
Speaker 2: have a feeling when things heat up in August, he's
Speaker 2: going to climb up there a little bit. But that
Speaker 2: is certainly a guy I'm watching. Okay, well, one more
Speaker 2: situation and I realized, like, we're not burning down the
Speaker 2: house here with the top offenses in the league. But
Speaker 2: I think this is where our money's made. And I
Speaker 2: want to talk about Atlanta because I'm scared enough about
Speaker 2: the quarterback situation. I talked about this with Jim Coventry
Speaker 2: last week. But what's going on behind Drake London? I
Speaker 2: mean it's it's pretty bad. Right. We've got Dotson and
Speaker 2: Zekias I think, you know, and then we've got the
Speaker 2: rookie branch. What do we care about what's going on
Speaker 2: behind Drake London number one and number two? How do
Speaker 2: we sort out this mass of mediocrity behind him?
Speaker 1: From a redraft stance, I think it's hard to really
Speaker 1: have a lot of faith in a lot of what's
Speaker 1: behind Vijion Robinson and and Drake London. And it starts
Speaker 1: the quarterbacks, right, I mean this is a problem, Like
Speaker 1: we were just hoping these quarterbacks are performing at a
Speaker 1: level to just keep like Drake London and his immense
Speaker 1: target share like above water for fantasy football, and it
Speaker 1: has with Michael Pennix the last two years. But other
Speaker 1: than that, like it's been really hard to get like
Speaker 1: a second guy on a weekly level really going, just
Speaker 1: because the quarterback play has been so bad. I mean,
Speaker 1: you look at just Michael Pennix these past two years
Speaker 1: since he's been able to start, I mean, he's below
Speaker 1: the league rate in just about every metric, right and Tua,
Speaker 1: we know how it ended for him in Miami. This
Speaker 1: is the same boat. So you're really taking a huge
Speaker 1: step of faith and just believing in the quarterbacks are
Speaker 1: able to support enough of these guys from to start
Speaker 1: out with. Then when you started getting like the under
Speaker 1: the hood of the personnel, there's not a lot to
Speaker 1: feel good about, right like Johan Dotson, you know you
Speaker 1: have a team buying the kind of the flop Legs
Speaker 1: is a former first round pick that was buried behind
Speaker 1: two players that are just superior to him right in Philadelphia,
Speaker 1: like A. J. Brown and Devanti's me. They're just better
Speaker 1: football players than him, and on a team that we
Speaker 1: already talked about doesn't already throw the ball at a
Speaker 1: high rate in league context, so he was never going
Speaker 1: to like have statistical weight in Philadelphia. So you're just hoping,
Speaker 1: like maybe you're getting a cheap guy as a forum
Speaker 1: first round pick, maybe there's something there as the key
Speaker 1: as we know, basically like pure slot player. And then
Speaker 1: with Zachary Branch, you can I have no pushback. If
Speaker 1: you're like, hey, I'm gonna use my round seventeen eighteen
Speaker 1: twenty pick on zach ry Branch and just see what
Speaker 1: shakes out. No pushback, all shoot your shot, right, But
Speaker 1: when you're trying to break down, like, what's the path
Speaker 1: for zach Ryer Branch, right, Like this is one hundred
Speaker 1: and seventy seven pound guy, twenty nine inch arms doesn't
Speaker 1: have any experience in entering the NFL of playing like
Speaker 1: any type of level of nuanced wide receiver. Right, So again,
Speaker 1: I don't want to make this whole team. So like,
Speaker 1: how is he playing in one to two wide receiver
Speaker 1: sets on a team that also inherently wants to run
Speaker 1: the football through Bjohn Robinson? Right, They've got a good
Speaker 1: offensive line still in Atlanta, they want to insulate their
Speaker 1: quarterback play because again, do they even have one good
Speaker 1: quarterback out of the two guys that they have, So
Speaker 1: what's the path for him? Like really having a high
Speaker 1: route rate. He could be a guy that has like
Speaker 1: a high target per route rate because when he's coming
Speaker 1: in the game, they're giving these manufactured touches or some
Speaker 1: screen stuff. But you just take such a step of
Speaker 1: faith in being like a nuanced wide receiver in an
Speaker 1: offense that we don't have a lot of top down
Speaker 1: faith in that I'm not particularly excited to draft him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just get so at this point in the summer,
Speaker 2: I get looking at these two quarterbacks and it paralyzes
Speaker 2: me from wanting to do anything with this offense because
Speaker 2: I just am so concerned about what it's going to
Speaker 2: look like. And the change with the offensive philosophy is
Speaker 2: the same as well. But okay, well that was an
Speaker 2: excellent breakdown and let's start cooking a little bit more
Speaker 2: with some offenses we care about a little bit more.
Speaker 2: Not that we don't care about, you know, Philly or
Speaker 2: Green Bay, but it is kind of gross in some
Speaker 2: of those situations. But we've got some other wide receiver
Speaker 2: rooms that do have some more depth, and it's still
Speaker 2: important to sort those out. And the biggest one I
Speaker 2: think that is up for debate that I continue to
Speaker 2: see people gnashing their teeth over is Jacksonville, and for
Speaker 2: good reason, because it's a weird situation that we don't
Speaker 2: see too often in fantasy football where they trade for
Speaker 2: a guy the level of Jacoby Myers who comes in
Speaker 2: and looks pretty darn good right away. Flipping teams in
Speaker 2: the middle of the season. That's unusual. And then we
Speaker 2: get this Parker Washington thing. Late. We still have Travis
Speaker 2: Hunter kind of hanging out there. They're paying lip service
Speaker 2: to him coming in and playing wide receiver a little
Speaker 2: bit still. But then we've also got Brian Thomas Junior
Speaker 2: who had this unbelievable rookie season, and then we hear
Speaker 2: the quote from him recently, Yeah, this year might be
Speaker 2: a little bit different because it doesn't hurt to run,
Speaker 2: and I think, well, geez, like, we how do we
Speaker 2: untangle this mess? What are your thoughts about what we're
Speaker 2: going to see and what redraft players should be doing
Speaker 2: with these guys.
Speaker 1: And this also ties into I think that you know
Speaker 1: how you're going to approach the running back room too
Speaker 1: with this team, and they were so good the back
Speaker 1: half of the year, throwing the football. People forget like
Speaker 1: this was a bad running team. Like when you look
Speaker 1: at the counting stats that Travis etn had or are
Speaker 1: we supposed to call him like the HN now as
Speaker 1: they said, it's okay, come on, man, But but when
Speaker 1: you look like after the week eight by I mean
Speaker 1: Travis Travis etn hn he I mean, he was twenty
Speaker 1: fourth out of thirty two running backs and success rate.
Speaker 1: He failed to gain yardage at the highest rate in
Speaker 1: the league over that span. And the Jaguars knew that
Speaker 1: they were a bad running team and they swerved into
Speaker 1: throwing the football. And that's just from a top downstance,
Speaker 1: Like are they gonna is that like their approach this year?
Speaker 1: Because you look at what they did in the backfield
Speaker 1: and you're like, wow, they have really like immense confidence
Speaker 1: and what they brought in here. The offensive line is
Speaker 1: still like not the greatest on paper, but then you
Speaker 1: look in the draft, they were one of these teams
Speaker 1: that drafted multiple tight ends. Are they going to try
Speaker 1: to incorporate some of this twelve personnel on paper? Though
Speaker 1: you look at it, you're like, eleven personnel is like
Speaker 1: the bread and butter for this offense, Like it's one
Speaker 1: that's their best players playing eleven personnel. Two it's what
Speaker 1: Liam Gowens had the most success with. As long as
Speaker 1: like they're not getting like pushed from like the GM
Speaker 1: that you have to play this way. I mean, it
Speaker 1: feels like they are gonna run this offense through Trevor
Speaker 1: Lawrence in the same pass that they did in the
Speaker 1: back half of last year. One of the craziest things
Speaker 1: though with the Jaguars was like they had like probably
Speaker 1: the biggest sliding doors moment of the year last year. Right,
Speaker 1: you know, you think about prior to their bye, they
Speaker 1: play that game in London against the Rams, and we
Speaker 1: were starting to see like this awakening of Travis Hunter right, Like,
Speaker 1: you know, he was coming on the season slowly, he
Speaker 1: was just ramping up. He was starting to play more.
Speaker 1: If you look at like three games before the bye,
Speaker 1: sixty seven percent of snaps, seventy eight percent of snaps,
Speaker 1: eighty seven percent of the offensive snaps has one hundred yards.
Speaker 1: Granted it's on blout against the Rams, it's over one
Speaker 1: hundred yards. It's fourteen targets. They're like, oh wow, significant buzz.
Speaker 1: This guy could be taking over. Then he gets hurt
Speaker 1: in practice, he has the LCL injury, and practice he's done.
Speaker 1: They end up trading for Jacobe Myers, who immediately got
Speaker 1: an extension on the trade that didn't come after the year.
Speaker 1: Like they trade for him game an extension prior to
Speaker 1: his Travis Hunters injury. Parker Washington wasn't playing. He had
Speaker 1: seventeen catches at that point of the year. Right then
Speaker 1: he comes on and leads a team in receiving the
Speaker 1: rest of the season. That same game, Brian Thomas Junior,
Speaker 1: who we already knew was playing through a wrist injury,
Speaker 1: injures his shoulder and he's limited kind of coming after.
Speaker 1: That's like, all these moving parts happened during the course
Speaker 1: of this season, and they created this like one outcome
Speaker 1: of the back half of the year where it's like, hey,
Speaker 1: did this unlock how they want to play moving forward?
Speaker 1: Or was this something that they had to do in
Speaker 1: the time and they're trying to still calibrate. Those are
Speaker 1: things gamers don't know, right, Like it's hard to put
Speaker 1: some of this stuff back in the bottle. Though. With
Speaker 1: Parker Washington, this guy was so damn good the back
Speaker 1: half of the year, and not even the back half
Speaker 1: the year. In the playoffs, I mean, look at the
Speaker 1: final four games this team played. I mean, this dude
Speaker 1: went over one hundred yards and three of those games
Speaker 1: in the playoff game goes to one hundred dards a
Speaker 1: gamest the Bills. He's cooking the Broncos like because when
Speaker 1: you look at the Jaguars the back half year, like
Speaker 1: oh wow, they were decimating some terrible defenses. But then
Speaker 1: you look at that Denver game. They went into Denver
Speaker 1: and they put over thirty on Denver and Denver had
Speaker 1: no answers for them, and it's like that was proof
Speaker 1: of concept. It was like, yeah, they are beating up
Speaker 1: these bad teams. But you know what, I want my
Speaker 1: good offenses to crush these bad teams that I like,
Speaker 1: to me, that's a you know, a feature, not a bug.
Speaker 1: And then I want my team to be able to
Speaker 1: punch up against these good defenses like Jacksonville did. So
Speaker 1: there are some like moving parts here to try to diagnose.
Speaker 1: But one I think Parker Washing out of the guys
Speaker 1: that are like kind of the scariest, like what was real?
Speaker 1: What wasn't of twenty twenty five NFL football. He's a
Speaker 1: guy I still want to keep the light on because
Speaker 1: he was a guy that you know, I played college fantasy.
Speaker 1: I had him on my team that last year at
Speaker 1: Penn State and he didn't have good quarterback play, but like,
Speaker 1: this is the guy I thought was a good player.
Speaker 1: And maybe it's just the Juwan Jennings situation where like
Speaker 1: everything kind was a perfect storm. Well you just never
Speaker 1: get that run out again. But man, I still want
Speaker 1: to invest in him a little bit. Brian Thomas, I
Speaker 1: don't want to close lights on either, just because like
Speaker 1: we don't have guys that have his profile right, his
Speaker 1: physical profile, and so there's got to be some marriage
Speaker 1: in between of what happened his rookie year and what
Speaker 1: happened last year. Yeah, will also know he was playing hurt.
Speaker 1: Jacoby Myers is the one guy I'm willing to let
Speaker 1: go just from an archtypical stance, So like, this is
Speaker 1: a guy that's gonna he's gonna beat my ranking of him.
Speaker 1: But also do I believe he's a guy like you
Speaker 1: have to have to win. I still just don't think
Speaker 1: he's that type of player. Even with the Jaguars, he
Speaker 1: had more than fifteen PPR points in one game. You
Speaker 1: know it. This is just the guy. I think it's good,
Speaker 1: he's the token beats ADP. But do you need him
Speaker 1: to win? A league type of guy? And sometimes your
Speaker 1: roster needs that type of player. I'm not saying don't
Speaker 1: draft this guy because he does have a high upside.
Speaker 1: Sometimes you need that guy that can just come in
Speaker 1: and get you. He's gonna get eight targets. I hope
Speaker 1: he gets me twelve PPR boyds this game, right, But
Speaker 1: even with that offense running as hot as it was,
Speaker 1: he wasn't delivering like tide turning weeks, you know, in
Speaker 1: your fantasy league. So I'm more BTJ Moore still Parker Washington.
Speaker 1: We'll see what settles in for the backfield. But this
Speaker 1: is still an offense. I think when you look at it, though,
Speaker 1: like eleven personnel should be their jam, and I just
Speaker 1: that they don't have outside interference to kind of screw
Speaker 1: with that.
Speaker 2: So I was quickly looking up the eleven personnel while
Speaker 2: you were talking because I wanted to ask you about
Speaker 2: that specifically. So I appreciate you saying that it looks
Speaker 2: like last year they were eighth in the league about
Speaker 2: sixty five percent eleven personnel. I would expect that to continue,
Speaker 2: wouldn't you.
Speaker 1: I I do. But we saw them coming out of
Speaker 1: the draft, you know. And this is the problem I
Speaker 1: have with the NFL trying to just be a copycat league,
Speaker 1: and you just have to you have to have a
Speaker 1: plan still, right, Like you can't just run thirteen personnel
Speaker 1: because Sean McVay did it. Right, you have to have
Speaker 1: a rhyme and reason why you're doing it, and a big,
Speaker 1: a big reason why Sean McVay did it was for
Speaker 1: two reasons. One, he there eleven personnel was the weakest
Speaker 1: that's ever been in mcvayh era, right, you know, outside
Speaker 1: of Puka and DeVante Adams, it was thin behind those
Speaker 1: guys at wide receiver. The other thing, too, is you
Speaker 1: know that he wanted to incorporate more under center passing
Speaker 1: because he wanted teams to play more just general based defense. Right.
Speaker 1: Like it's funny because McVeigh when he off the Shanny entry,
Speaker 1: the first thing he did was got rid of the
Speaker 1: old school the Koubi actionannon fullback. Because I'm getting rid
Speaker 1: of the full back. I'm gonna have guys like Robert
Speaker 1: Woods and Cooper Cup and pookin a coua, these guys
Speaker 1: that are plus in the pass game. I can get
Speaker 1: them in movement, get them on second level and a
Speaker 1: linebacker U and you know, we give them like a
Speaker 1: head start, like they can still make be assets in
Speaker 1: the run game. Then when we have to throw, it's
Speaker 1: not a zero. We don't have a full back on
Speaker 1: the field, mcvayh like was like, all right, I want
Speaker 1: to start playing you know, more tight ends because our
Speaker 1: receivers are as good that we got to get the
Speaker 1: base defense and find mismatches. Coolie Parkins can stretch the field,
Speaker 1: Terrence Ferguson can stretch the field, and they can not
Speaker 1: only stretch the field for themselves, but clear out stuff
Speaker 1: for Pooking Akua and DeVonta AM's at the your remediate
Speaker 1: levels because we're runing play action and stuff like that.
Speaker 1: So when I hear Gladstone come out of this, come
Speaker 1: out of the draft, and basically he was just like
Speaker 1: I drafted tight ends because the league's doing it, but
Speaker 1: like not really having a plan with the players he
Speaker 1: specifically drafted, because I don't think that those two particular
Speaker 1: tight ends I like Tanner Cozield to find. But like,
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's like you have I still have
Speaker 1: a plan to implement these players and have a strategy.
Speaker 1: One of the teams that started the last year really
Speaker 1: pick up on the thirteen personnel, and it could have
Speaker 1: been just a byproduct of injuries or a byproduct of like, hey,
Speaker 1: we could do some of this stuff too and be
Speaker 1: functional was a Chicago Bears Ben Johnson saw this in
Speaker 1: the final six weeks of the season. Remember Roma Dunze
Speaker 1: was banged up. That was part of the influence. But
Speaker 1: Cole Comet and Colston Lovelin are like totally guys that
Speaker 1: are functional. Like you can play still base offense with
Speaker 1: both these guys. You gt flex out Colston Lovelin, Cole
Speaker 1: Comett still plus receiver. He's not a zero right, Like
Speaker 1: he's not one of these guys coming in the game
Speaker 1: like a Charlie Warner. And where these guys are turning
Speaker 1: into kind of like the new fullback into a sense,
Speaker 1: these guys have to be able to contribute in the
Speaker 1: past game when you need to be able to throw
Speaker 1: two and you get to when you when teams don't
Speaker 1: want to play ball, because I'm very interested. Now the
Speaker 1: next set is the cat and mouse of this is
Speaker 1: is teams just don't play ball and they are like, hey,
Speaker 1: you want to play thirteen. We're not going to play bass,
Speaker 1: right like we're gonna do what Mike McDonald did, like
Speaker 1: or gonna stay in big nickel, like go ahead, We'll
Speaker 1: sacrifice some efficiency against the run. But We're not gonna
Speaker 1: let you cook us for the APPLA play Action Pass
Speaker 1: game downfield, like you know Clint Kubiak has been doing
Speaker 1: the past two years. Uh So I'm very interested in
Speaker 1: that cat and mouse aspect of it, Dough. But I
Speaker 1: believe the Jaguars are just looking at their team they
Speaker 1: should be playing eleven personnel.
Speaker 2: Well, what's interesting about the ADP too, is everyone's telling
Speaker 2: us they don't know what the hell to do either,
Speaker 2: and that's creating some obvious value here. But I guess
Speaker 2: I'm not convinced that I'm going to be able to
Speaker 2: parse that value properly. Thomas's wide receiver thirty three on
Speaker 2: ADP right now, Parker Washington thirty seven, and Jacobe Myers
Speaker 2: forty two, which it all makes sense, but it's it's
Speaker 2: all too low because we're splitting the baby.
Speaker 1: Yeah, someone's gonna we're gonna look back on this from
Speaker 1: ten thousand feet out next February and be like, oh, yeah,
Speaker 1: one of these guys is a smash for sure, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well absolutely. I also just need to point out too,
Speaker 2: I will not stand for your Canada Mumfield slander. You know,
Speaker 2: I know that the three wide receivers weren't as good,
Speaker 2: so they had to go and do what they had
Speaker 2: to do with their personnel. But yes, okay, little fantasy
Speaker 2: football door humor. All right, let's move on because we've
Speaker 2: got about fifteen minutes left and I want to hit
Speaker 2: these last two offenses. You mentioned the Chicago Bears, so
Speaker 2: let's just slide into that next, because the Chicago Bears
Speaker 2: wide receiver room is interesting. Not necessarily because I care
Speaker 2: about everybody there, but parsing the difference between Roma Donde
Speaker 2: and Luther Burden, I think is a big deal. Burden
Speaker 2: seemed to have a lot of steam a few weeks ago,
Speaker 2: but lately I'm really seeing that cool a little bit,
Speaker 2: and certainly tonight in the mock auction, he wasn't super expensive.
Speaker 2: I think he went in the low twenties, and I
Speaker 2: think that's very expensive for what I expected to see.
Speaker 2: So people are again a little bit, they're just a
Speaker 2: little bit unsure. So what's your opinion about how Chicago
Speaker 2: shakes out there with those two guys.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm still pretty bullish on just the offensive environment
Speaker 1: in general. I'm a big kind of Ben Johnson truther.
Speaker 1: Like I said, I think he just understands the assignment
Speaker 1: and understands how to you know, max out his personnel
Speaker 1: from not only from Detroit, but where you saw the
Speaker 1: growth from that offense as the season progressed and in
Speaker 1: the back half of the year. I mean, this is
Speaker 1: a team that I mean, they almost beat the Rams
Speaker 1: right to have a chance to even play Seattle. I
Speaker 1: would have loved to see those teams match up, you know,
Speaker 1: Ben Johnson and Mike McDonald, and see the cat and
Speaker 1: mouse game with that too as well. But I'm in
Speaker 1: on all these guys, and I think the cost is
Speaker 1: fine and all three I've been work shopping tight End
Speaker 1: a lot, and it's bummer because I do really love
Speaker 1: Loveland the most. I think are the top three guys
Speaker 1: at cost. But I generally still don't love my Loveland teams,
Speaker 1: And you know that's subjective. There's probably some gamers out
Speaker 1: that really do so, but I've more or less haven't
Speaker 1: been like a big fan of my early tight End teams.
Speaker 1: But man, I think Loveland is the absolute guy that's
Speaker 1: gonna like hammer in this offense. It's like from a
Speaker 1: weekly stance, like he's gonna be the one kind of
Speaker 1: Gibraltar Like every week, this guy's going to be flirting
Speaker 1: with you know, twenty plus percent target ers. He was
Speaker 1: over fifteen percent, and all of his last nine games
Speaker 1: last year we saw him be over thirty percent the
Speaker 1: last five games. They're just able to do so much
Speaker 1: with him, especially if they're going to roll over a
Speaker 1: lot of that twelve thirteen person al they ended the
Speaker 1: year with. I think that Lovelen's gets me set up
Speaker 1: in a really really like high efficiency type role and
Speaker 1: he comes with the touchdown equity, to which you love.
Speaker 1: That's the one thing with Burden, like I think that
Speaker 1: you do worry about. We saw him at the end
Speaker 1: of last year be a really viable player when a
Speaker 1: lot of that was influenced by you know, Roma Dunze
Speaker 1: being out. But now DJ Moore is out and Burden's
Speaker 1: going to slide in that role. And Burden as a
Speaker 1: prospect was someone I thought that was misnomered as a
Speaker 1: slot only wide receiver. I actually thought one of his
Speaker 1: like weaker aspects was just you know, sitting in zone
Speaker 1: and finding holes in coverage. He was more of an
Speaker 1: explosive player and more of a more nuanced routrey getting
Speaker 1: open downfield. We just didn't see it because he played
Speaker 1: an off that was helm by Brady Cook, and we
Speaker 1: saw what happened where Brady Cook got to get on
Speaker 1: the field last year in the NFL and some of
Speaker 1: the shortcomings he had. So I actually think he's Taylor.
Speaker 1: Taylor made to take over this role that DJ Moore
Speaker 1: leaves behind and just wasn't a slot only player And
Speaker 1: that was kind of a big hurdle for him last
Speaker 1: year because you know that was the keys and he
Speaker 1: had trouble getting those snaps because I don't think he
Speaker 1: had that type of route nuance that people thought he
Speaker 1: had because he thought they was just a slot receiver
Speaker 1: right coming out. But he only had two end zone
Speaker 1: targets last year, right, Like this is a this is
Speaker 1: a thing, like this is that archetype of player. He's
Speaker 1: a very Za Flowers he and type player. So I
Speaker 1: think context of what your league settings matter a lot
Speaker 1: for a guy like Luther Burden, just like they do
Speaker 1: for his Flowers, right, because this is the guy that's
Speaker 1: probably gonna have a really significant target share. He's gonna
Speaker 1: get you explosives, he's gonna be efficient. But also when
Speaker 1: the Bears are inside the twenty, like they're probably dialing
Speaker 1: up plays or Colson Loveland and probably calling a place
Speaker 1: for Roma Dunes, I mean four room Roalman Dunes. They
Speaker 1: got hurt. The wide receiver, nine and end zone targets
Speaker 1: is still a big body guy. He's gonna win in
Speaker 1: those types of situations and draw those types of target opportunities,
Speaker 1: winning in the high contested catch game. So uh, you
Speaker 1: don't see a lot of guys that are Burden size
Speaker 1: get a lot dialed up for them in the red zone.
Speaker 1: So if you're in a full PPR, start three wide receivers.
Speaker 1: I think that's the format where burden is the most appealing.
Speaker 1: If you're in you know, like like his underdog ADP.
Speaker 1: We were actually talking about the car, you know, driving
Speaker 1: with Ian stuff. Was like, man, I think his underdog
Speaker 1: like this is the wrong format for him to have
Speaker 1: that aggressive of an ADP. That's where you want Rome, right,
Speaker 1: you want Rome in the half PPR more touchdown driven
Speaker 1: because Rome is the guy that gets those targets that
Speaker 1: may be come with a higher variance. We've seen still
Speaker 1: two years in the NFL, Caleb from a top downstance,
Speaker 1: still not a hyper efficient thrower, and odoons back to
Speaker 1: back years through two different offensive coordinators, but the same
Speaker 1: quarterback has been the guy that's taken on the brunt
Speaker 1: of the inaccurate targets from Caleb Caleb Williams, and we
Speaker 1: saw that last year the final eight games. Last year,
Speaker 1: twenty seven percent of his targets were inaccurate. No player
Speaker 1: in the NFL with that that many targets had a
Speaker 1: higher off target rate as a rookie. In twenty twenty four,
Speaker 1: it was twenty six point seven percent of his targets
Speaker 1: were inaccurate. No player had a higher inaccurate target that
Speaker 1: many targets because he gets those types of targets that
Speaker 1: come with like a lower success rate, but they are
Speaker 1: worth kind of more when they do succeed. So I
Speaker 1: think when I play the Bears wide receivers, it's going
Speaker 1: to be contingent on my format, and you know what,
Speaker 1: guy makes more sense in that. But I am bullish
Speaker 1: from a top downstance. I think this is an offense
Speaker 1: I definitely want to invest in just how I'm playing.
Speaker 1: It is going to be based on scoring settings.
Speaker 2: This is why we have Rich on the show because
Speaker 2: nowhere else can you hear Zay Flowers name turned into
Speaker 2: an adjective. He is Zay Flowers the end, which I
Speaker 2: love that I'm using that. By the way, I'm stealing
Speaker 2: it and I will not credit you. So what wide
Speaker 2: receiver twenty one right now for Burden, wide receiver twenty
Speaker 2: eight for o'donza. It feels to me like people aren't
Speaker 2: very excited about o'donsay, And if he hadn't gotten hurt,
Speaker 2: I think we'd be having a different conversation about him,
Speaker 2: and he'd be much more interesting to people than wide
Speaker 2: receiver twenty eight. So I feel like that's the guy
Speaker 2: I'm going to be taking the shots on. But hey,
Speaker 2: you know, like I said, Burden wasn't as expensive as
Speaker 2: I thought he'd be tonight. So maybe both guys are
Speaker 2: going to be something that I can that I can
Speaker 2: see myself having.
Speaker 1: And you can always get, you know, the syrup for
Speaker 1: the pancakes if you want to. You could just take
Speaker 1: Kyle Williams.
Speaker 2: Yes, I've been hammering on this all summer long about well,
Speaker 2: you know, for three weeks whatever. But Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 2: I mean, these guys, they've got some unbelievable receiving talent
Speaker 2: and people are really excited about these receivers and not
Speaker 2: necessarily as excited about the quarterbacks, which I don't understand.
Speaker 2: But all right, well, hey, we're doing great. Now, we've
Speaker 2: got about seven minutes left. We can talk about Arizona.
Speaker 2: I may pop up a surprise quiz on you here
Speaker 2: about somebody. But the Arizona situation is really interesting because
Speaker 2: I feel like I've swung back and forth on my
Speaker 2: opinion on Michael Wilson about five times already, and we're
Speaker 2: still in the middle of June. I just don't know
Speaker 2: what to think. But to me, the situation that we
Speaker 2: saw with Wilson at the end of last year just
Speaker 2: screams red flag, like I should be a little bit
Speaker 2: concerned about the following season. We don't necessarily see what
Speaker 2: he did happen that often, and then end up following
Speaker 2: it up by saying, Hey, this guy's still the alpha here,
Speaker 2: this guy's gonna is he gonna alpha Marvin Harrison. So
Speaker 2: I'm just a little bit nervous about Michael Wilson. I
Speaker 2: haven't had any optimistic feelings about him yet so far
Speaker 2: this summer. So am I wrong about that? What are
Speaker 2: you thinking about? How Harrison and Wilson stack up this summer.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's very tough to be you know, kind
Speaker 1: of like super bullish and what happened with Michael Wilson,
Speaker 1: because when you just remove, when you just add all
Speaker 1: the context to how it went down, it's easy to
Speaker 1: kind of see like him, kind of like we saw
Speaker 1: something similar the year before that with Jerry Judy. The
Speaker 1: back half of the year with Jamis Wilson, Winston took over.
Speaker 1: He was on a team that played in just a
Speaker 1: lot of jail break game scripts, was running a ton
Speaker 1: of routes, really didn't have a ton of target competition.
Speaker 1: Now Wilson still had Trey McBride, but this whole Arizona
Speaker 1: team in the back half of the year and something
Speaker 1: I just kept talking about, like it just fell apart
Speaker 1: on every system, systemic level, Like they run their their
Speaker 1: fifth running back, they were missing three offensive linemen, they
Speaker 1: were they were missing three to six defensive starters basically
Speaker 1: every game the final eight weeks the last season, and
Speaker 1: Marvin Harrison Junior was basically off the field the entire
Speaker 1: back half of the year where he just dealt with
Speaker 1: so many you know injuries after the you know app
Speaker 1: and deck to me, he had an cushion, he had
Speaker 1: an app and Dectmy then had an ankle injury, and
Speaker 1: we just didn't see him play a lot. He played
Speaker 1: eighty five offensive snaps after week tens, the official number.
Speaker 1: So all of these things just like lined up and
Speaker 1: Trey mcbrine and Michael Wilson the final ten weeks of
Speaker 1: the year, they were number one, number two in the NFL,
Speaker 1: and just some routes run because they were always down
Speaker 1: seventeen points. They were the only two guys getting the
Speaker 1: ball in the offense. The team couldn't run because they
Speaker 1: had no healthy running backs, they couldn't stop anyone because
Speaker 1: they were they had no healthy you know, defensive backs
Speaker 1: basically at that point either, and just created this windfall
Speaker 1: fantasy production where we just played Trey McBride and Michael
Speaker 1: Wilson in dfs every damn week and we just kept
Speaker 1: riding that train. But we know that even if their
Speaker 1: Cardinals aren't gonna be good as good this year, and
Speaker 1: you know they're they're up there in contention for the
Speaker 1: number one pick, the odds that like they are just
Speaker 1: in that amount of jail break game scripts are probably
Speaker 1: gonna get reeled in a little bit. This is a
Speaker 1: team that they have improved on the offensive line. They've
Speaker 1: made investments on the offensive line. They should be just
Speaker 1: by default healthier. We know they brought in Tyler alg year.
Speaker 1: We know they drafted you know, Jeremiah Love. Like they
Speaker 1: they're probably gonna play for even being a bad team
Speaker 1: kind of a style of football. I think that they
Speaker 1: want to play more rock fights than people probably assume
Speaker 1: they will. Dolphins are another one of these teams, like
Speaker 1: they're being pretty clear about it, like we were just
Speaker 1: hoping every game can somehow be sixteen to ten and
Speaker 1: we just hang on around that. The Cardinals are a
Speaker 1: team that I think are going to try to be
Speaker 1: a little bit more run heavy too, and trying to
Speaker 1: let the games get away with them insulate those quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: They didn't get really shafted on the schedule, though, I
Speaker 1: will say that about there as on the Cardinals, they
Speaker 1: play the opening nine games, they have six games on
Speaker 1: the road, and like they're all playoff teams, so it
Speaker 1: might not even matter. They might just be one of
Speaker 1: these teams that is just trailing.
Speaker 2: But let me interrupt you there, because I think that's
Speaker 2: somewhat of a key here too, because can we see
Speaker 2: them sticking with Yakobe Brissette the whole year. First of all,
Speaker 2: he's not even in there, so like, I mean, they're
Speaker 2: gonna be what two and seven or whatever. If we're lucky,
Speaker 2: they're gonna take a look at what else they've got, right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And the way the schedule plays, there's not a
Speaker 1: great onboarding process for Carson Beck early in the unless
Speaker 1: they just really want to throw him to the Wolves
Speaker 1: at some point in the middle of the season. So
Speaker 1: I think it really sets up for them for all
Speaker 1: three quarterbacks to kind of play where Brissett, if he's
Speaker 1: playing to the same level he was last year and
Speaker 1: they're just not winning games, Like you said, there's just
Speaker 1: gonna be a default. If they're one and eight, they're
Speaker 1: probably gonna make a move in some direction. But I
Speaker 1: don't think like they're gonna bring in Carson Beck, you know,
Speaker 1: at Dallas, at Seattle, at Kansas City, right Like, it's
Speaker 1: gonna be like, all right, let's let Minshew take some
Speaker 1: lumps and then we'll get back maybe the back third
Speaker 1: of the year, and we'll play him. The other thing, too,
Speaker 1: is like we didn't talk about, like with Michae Wilson.
Speaker 1: It's like we have like the official numbers, and we
Speaker 1: saw this last year when Marvin Harrison Junior came back,
Speaker 1: he completely relegated Michael Wilson again and just like he
Speaker 1: just got hurt again. Is the is what problem with
Speaker 1: that is what happened. So Wilson ran three hundred and
Speaker 1: twenty seven routes last year with Marvin Harrison Junior on
Speaker 1: the field on those plays, twelve and a half percent
Speaker 1: target rate, zero point eight five yards per out run.
Speaker 1: Like we saw, he came back that front half of
Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay game before he had dankle injury and
Speaker 1: Michael Wilson was completely just out of the offense again.
Speaker 1: So it's just again it's just really hard to look
Speaker 1: at this from a situation like I had draw that
Speaker 1: correlard to like Jerry Judy the year prior, just a
Speaker 1: perfect storm happened for Michael Wilson to pop and and
Speaker 1: granted he balled with this opportunity. I don't want a
Speaker 1: short hand like just there dismiss what he did completely
Speaker 1: because he took that opportunity to delivered with it. That
Speaker 1: always doesn't happen either, But it's just really hard to see,
Speaker 1: like that intersection of just things that lined up create
Speaker 1: the same you know, outcome again. You know, head into
Speaker 1: this year.
Speaker 2: It really was the perfect storm. The way you describe
Speaker 2: it and the way that we remember it, it was
Speaker 2: a perfect storm. And I just I don't see any
Speaker 2: of that. Like you said that the run rate. I
Speaker 2: believe this offensive environment that that we know, at least
Speaker 2: from the coaching staff that's there now, is going to
Speaker 2: want to do that as well, and that they've signaled
Speaker 2: that by what they did early in the draft too.
Speaker 2: But well, this is perfect. I'm going to ruin it
Speaker 2: because we're at forty five minutes, but I want to
Speaker 2: get your take, So two minutes or less, all right.
Speaker 2: I know that this is not easy, but two minutes
Speaker 2: or less. I was thinking about the Las Vegas offense
Speaker 2: and just I just don't know what the heck they're
Speaker 2: doing with their pass catchers. I know, Brock Bauers is
Speaker 2: the wide receiver one, but they've got Jalen Naylor, They've
Speaker 2: got Trey Tucker. What the heck are we doing with
Speaker 2: Las Vegas? And I almost feel like their offense has
Speaker 2: to be better just by default because of Kirk cousins
Speaker 2: from Fernando Mendozo. Those guys are going to be better
Speaker 2: than what they had, But how much do we care?
Speaker 2: Is it that much better? And what the heck are
Speaker 2: they doing with these wide receivers and what should we
Speaker 2: be doing with them other than not drafting them?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I mean, and you have Clint Kubiak. You also
Speaker 1: don't have the coach's son running the offensive line like
Speaker 1: last year, not only an offensive line that was battered.
Speaker 1: I mean there were reports last year that offensive linemen
Speaker 1: were you know, meeting with Gino Smith and like Ashton
Speaker 1: Janey like away from coaches to just try to resolve
Speaker 1: some of this stuff with Brendan call, you know, running
Speaker 1: the offense last year. And then obviously Colton Miller got hurt,
Speaker 1: Jackson Powers Johnson got hurt. Now those guys come back.
Speaker 1: You had Tyler Linderbaum, you had Klint Kubiak. Things are
Speaker 1: moving in the right direction. I think from them at
Speaker 1: least be more structured. You know, do they just have
Speaker 1: enough raw talent you know, paired with like a you know,
Speaker 1: them being in just a juggernaut of a division two?
Speaker 1: Are they able to kind of combat that? But they're
Speaker 1: definitely gonna be a lot more structured offense. They're another
Speaker 1: one of these teams. They're gonna be a big twelve
Speaker 1: personnel team like they just are not even because it's
Speaker 1: what Kubiak wants to do. It's just like that's where
Speaker 1: their personnel lines up, like Michael Mayer brock Bauers to
Speaker 1: be able to be that move tight end. They're gonna
Speaker 1: play a lot of that. So who gets in on
Speaker 1: two wide receivers. I think it's gonna be big for them.
Speaker 1: I think Trey Tucker is still gonna run the most routes.
Speaker 1: Will it matter? Will he just be like exercising because
Speaker 1: he's gonna be all that play action and stuff like
Speaker 1: he's gonna be running a lot of wind sprints. So
Speaker 1: it comes down to between Naylor and Besh And I
Speaker 1: think just Naylor is right now just a better player
Speaker 1: than beschis, So I would kind of say he's gonna
Speaker 1: have the most opportunity just to be on the field,
Speaker 1: and he just won't be in maybe the Tucker role
Speaker 1: where Tucker's just like living on these high variance targets
Speaker 1: which are great for best ball, but from a weekly level,
Speaker 1: like good luck getting that right and you know, getting
Speaker 1: the week that Trey Tucker has the Monster game, like well,
Speaker 1: I think a lot of gamers chase that after the
Speaker 1: Commander's Game last year and just never found it again.
Speaker 1: So I do think we'll see it be Tucker the
Speaker 1: Nailer and then maybe Best mixed in. But you know,
Speaker 1: at least the door is open for beshtill, so I
Speaker 1: want to completely roll that out. But big twelve personnel team,
Speaker 1: I think Mayor and Bauers are still gonna be the
Speaker 1: guys that are going to be the biggest beneficiaries of
Speaker 1: the everything, all the moving parts and the changes for
Speaker 1: the passing game.
Speaker 2: Okay, love it? Hey you did that?
Speaker 1: Was it?
Speaker 2: Just about? Just about two and a half minutes. That
Speaker 2: was that was? That was high level stuff, folks. Richreebar
Speaker 2: is here because he is just a fountain of knowledge.
Speaker 2: I could go two hours with him. But it's the
Speaker 2: goal of the Auction Brief this summer to get you
Speaker 2: in and get you out so that you're mute there
Speaker 2: and back from work, get you through a whole episode
Speaker 2: of the Auction Brief. So that's what we've done today.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much to Rich for being here. Like
Speaker 2: I said, one of my good buddies. Can't wait to
Speaker 2: see you in Canton in July. You guys, come out,
Speaker 2: hang out with us. We'll have a drink or seven.
Speaker 2: And Rich remind everybody where they can find you, where
Speaker 2: they can find your work and what you got going on.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, you can find out everything I create this
Speaker 1: off season at Sharp Footballanalysis dot com. We have the
Speaker 1: big twenty twenty six preview book coming out. I've submitted
Speaker 1: all my chapters. You know, Warren has that book come
Speaker 1: out every year. That is going to be available in
Speaker 1: about two weeks. We're doing it pre fourth of July
Speaker 1: this year, I think around June thirtieth, so look for
Speaker 1: that to come out, and then post fourth of July
Speaker 1: is where I come out swinging and it's just nothing
Speaker 1: but living, breathing draft kit content for the whole remainder
Speaker 1: of the summer up until a fuck kickoff.
Speaker 2: That's stuff that you guys want. If you want to
Speaker 2: be good at fantasy football, head over there to Sharp
Speaker 2: Football and Analysis. Don't forget to follow Rich on Twitter
Speaker 2: at Lord Reeves and check out all of his stuff. Rich,
Speaker 2: thank you again for your time. We really appreciate it. Yeah, anytime, brother,
Speaker 2: All right, another great episode of Discussions with Drew, thanks
Speaker 2: so much to rich Reebar. And that's going to do
Speaker 2: it for this week. All right, that's going to wrap
Speaker 2: up another week of Discussions with Drew as we strive
Speaker 2: to talk with the smartest people in the business every
Speaker 2: single week. Don't forget to tune in Thursday morning for
Speaker 2: my solo time and the Auction Brief. Mike, thank you
Speaker 2: so much for joining us this week. I'll talk to
Speaker 2: you real soon. The Auction Brief is adjourned.
Speaker 3: The Auction Brief is adjourn that'll do it for this
Speaker 3: week's episode. See you next time on the Auction Brief.