Speaker 1: All right, welcoming, We're live. It's Monday morning.
Speaker 2: We're back.
Speaker 1: Hope everyone had a great weekend. I had a pretty
good weekend on the hardwood. Not so much with the vikings,
but pretty happy about how that went. As we let
people file in, how is your weekend? Boys?
Speaker 3: It was okay other than I lost my biggest play.
I went five and two overall, but had a five
percent loser in college football, which was very, very frustrating,
especially because I had to stay up late too, and
but the points never came from Boisey State. There's nothing worse.
There's nothing worse. Guys. You guys have been in this business,
both of you long enough to know that you'll stand
up till two in the morning. Isn't always fun, but
when it's for a loser, it's especially painful. Especially sucks
because my first three plays on Saturday all covered wire
to wire and then we lose the big one. So
I tweeted this. I apologized to everyone who only had
the big one but still three and one on Saturday.
I went two and one in the NFL yesterday. So
good weekend overall, sixty seven percent last six days. If
you go sixty seven percent over six day stretch. Rop
You've been doing this long enough, you understand you'll take
that ever every time.
Speaker 2: And here here Brian. I mean, it is difficult, and
I think what a lot of people, and I always
say thank God for the person who opened up the
door to in game betting, because we can't recommend these
to clients, but as betters, in game betting becomes the
savior for everything, at least in my case. If you
know what you're doing within game, you're gonna make money
no matter where you started the game at so myself.
College basketball, real quick, guys, I had a two and
one Saturday, or excuse me, a two and oh Saturday,
and then I was looking for the three and o.
Last night, I had the Florida team total over ninety
and a half. They only got the eighty two against Miami.
Pretty good game in Miami, I guess you could say
they showed halfway decent, but Florida's front court really proved.
Matt Hawk was tremendous second half in that game, and
Condon was good all game long. But a ton of
that was a real foulfest. Everybody was in the bonus
forever in that game. It took it to two and
one for the weekend. We'll see how we go here
college oop this week. I think overall guys fourteen and
ten for client releases so far this season.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think so. The first iteration of like, so
we're gonna have I think we're gonna do this now.
I might as well get the promo out of the way.
I believe they are gonna let us do a weekend
package for college basketball for the three of us. I
know we kind of got it up, you know, late
this past week, but I believe that will be like
a normal option for the weekend. And I think it
did pretty good. I went, I think I was six
and two Saturday and Sunday in college hoops. I did.
I did lose on Friday, but maybe like one and two.
So I'm pretty sure we won collectively this past weekend,
which will always be the goal. And getting all three
of us for you know, basically one price, I think
that's a pretty good deal. Brian, what do you think about?
Speaker 3: I agree? And I was one and one apologies with
the one winner. Both both plays were decided by double digits,
both the winner and the loser. Two couple of totals
and moving forward as the season goals and we have
more data points. Again, I think I said that. I've
said this point the first week of the show. I
reared it last week. There'll be more and more plays
from me as the season goes on in college hoops.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get right into it. I see we're
going to get to Garth's question in a second, but
Jacob is asking about the game that I chose as
the feature game today. He wants to know is VCU
plus twelve and a half of play? And what I
want to know I'll go to Rob first. Do you
have any interest in baiting Will Wait at this point?
Because I certainly do not, and so I will not
be on VCU tonight. How about yourself?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wouldn't be against Will Wade at this point. Again,
I've said it before. He's the kind of guy who
every game is a state game to him. And actually
I got a few quotes here for you guys. It
Will Wade. It's kind of coach speak. But what he
said about tonight's game was it's about to get real,
real quick, and we're going to have to play better.
What worked in these early games won't work against VCU
a ton of respect for their program, nice coach, being nice,
complimentary to the other side. For what it's worth, NC
State hasn't played a rugged schedule through their first three.
If you would call the UAB excuse me, the highest
rated team they played. We know, Adam, you've mentioned UAB
and you know what kind of I won't call it upheaval,
but that that program might not be what it's been
in past years. For the other side, VCU, I mean,
if you were just going to take the schedule test right,
they've played the one best opponent out of the six
that these teams have played. They played Utah State. They
fell short eighty seventy seven. It's a little bit deceiving.
VCU was down eighteen guys with eleven and a half
left in that game, really being outplayed and made a
pretty good run at the end, which that style is
capable of doing. But now you're taking your style, running
it right into the grinder against the same style against
a team that might be better at it than you
are on their home floor. A couple of things you
have to point out here VCU, and this I'm just
going to lay this out there real quick. So guys,
can follow us throughout the season where this is concerned.
When we talk overall free throw percentage shooting for a team,
I generally like to go in and see who are
the guys shooting the free throws. If you're collectively seventy
seven percent, but you've got two out of three guys
that only shoot sixty nine percent to take most of
your free throws, then it's really not seventy seven. In
this turnover issue, for VCU, almost twenty one percent of
their offensive possessions are turning into turnovers. And when you
look at the guys that are handling the ball, they
all have humongous turnover rates. Why is that a big deal?
Because NC State turns over like crazy. I think they're
fifty in the country as I look right now at
doing so. An NC State, for what it's worth, doesn't
turn the ball over, So it kind of negates what
VCU wants to do here, right, they're going to handle
the ball. The other side is not going to handle
the ball. And for the other example here of advantage
for NC State, they shoot the three really really well.
They've got multiple guys that are just flinging it up
there and they're going in now again, it could be
that it's bad opposition, right we can always throw that
in there this early in the season. However, sharp shooters
are sharp shooters, and right now nc State has a
plethora of them, and VCU hasn't defended it at all
against their bad schedule. And tell you the truth, in
the Utah State game, Uta State didn't try them u touss.
They shot thirteen threes in that game and still won,
scored eighty points without putting the threes up. So to me,
NC State has a pair of huge advantages here. A
they don't turn it over. They can turn VCU over
because they do. B. NC State shoots the three really well.
VCU hasn't defended it yet. Coaching edge has to go
to Wade. I would think in this game, and remember
that his McNee State team and got Adam and Brian
helped me just a little bit here. I believe that
my recollection is that the McNee State team played much
better defense. I get it was the south Land, but
they were more defensive predicated than Will Wade's LSU teams were.
It seems like he's taken a new form of philosophical
style here where he wants his teams to play defense,
and NC State players will tell you we grind every
single play. I've read a couple of these quotes. We
grind every single play. The standard is the standard right
till the end of the game. For those who are
worried about NC State letting up at the end if
they have a big lead, that quote right there tells
you they won't. Twelve and a half might not be
too big to cover. Here, I looked it over in
this game, guys thinking that NC State's gonna find their
way to ninety in this game, it's going to be
fast paced. Last thing I'll say is these two, the
way they play it sometimes turns into a foul shooting festival.
NC State shoots really well. VCU not so well. But
you know, free throw opportunities are still free throw opportunities,
scoring opportunities with the clocks to stop. So I'd have
two ways to look at it. I wouldn't look at
in VCUS direction. I'd probably look over first, and then
maybe the NC State way. I just think Will Wade
is he's got better players at this point and they're
more more cohesive.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, Rob, you you mentioned Will Wade' mcneeseem
they played slow. They played much slower than what NC
State's plan at and I think the different the reason
for the difference is he's got better players. Now you
referenced the three point shooting for NC State, let's just
put a number behind that. They're shooting forty four percent
from behind the arc so far. Is that going to continue? No,
but I don't really want to get in front of
it right now. And here's the other thing. It's not
just three point shooting gang. This team is NC State
number one in the country inside the arc sixty nine
percent making on twos, so a done matter if it's
outside inside they're all going in for the wolf pack
right now. You also mentioned the turnover problems that are
playing VCU at this juncture. I am if you're a
VCU guy, I'm unhappy to report that there's gonna be
more issues for you here. They're also very bad at
cleaning up the glass. Not only is NC State gonna
get I think extra possessions via turnover, they're gonna get
extra shot opportunities via the offensive glass as well. I
think NC State dominates on the glass. I think they
turn the ball over a lot. My initial you know,
I think we're all kind of an agreement here that
we don't want to jump in front of Will Wade
in NC State here. We don't want to take the
VCU side. I wouldn't want to bet an under either.
I am a little concerned that is NC State due
for an off night from three sooner rather than later?
Answers Probably yes, so, but still, I mean, maybe what's
NC State's team total here? Is like, because if this
game gets up and over, it's gonna because of that,
not VCU. Right, Okay, yeah, okay, so that's a number
I wouldn't be afraid to go over. But yeah, I'm
with Rob that my initial when I saw this was
gonna be a future matchup, my initial thought was over
because NC State right now is playing exceptionally well offensively,
and I just don't think VC is the team. Is
the opponent, Adam that's going.
Speaker 2: To stop that?
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I'll go back to something Rob said quick
about McNee State defensively under Will Wade last season. So
going back to last year, you know McNeice in the
Southland outclassed that conference by a wide margin. So you know,
you could take some of those numbers with a grain
of salt for a couple of reasons. One, they were
the far superior team in every matchup. Two, it's like,
I feel like they did get to a point in
conference play where they were like, can we play like
a real team? You know, can we play like we
want to play good teams? And they actually went on
the road and lost a game to Nickels State, And
I feel like that's when Will really laid into this
team last year. So I'll bring up a stat to
just sort of support Rob's theory on the McNeese defense
really like hitting another level down the stretch. They gave
up seventy just twice from that point forward. One was
in a win where they kind of comfortably won, and
the other was to Purdue in a game that ended
their season, where they only gave up seventy six to
Purdue team that was one of the best teams in
college basketball last year sixty nine to sixty seven win
over Clemson in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
So just at every other game of the South Land
was under seventy some of those didn't break sixty. Just
to you know, sort of support what Rob was saying
about Will wait defensively, and what I think we'll see
from NC State this year. Now, I thought there was
some value on the opener of like ten and a
half eleven. I think that was quickly gone. You're looking
at twelve and a half some places, like my numbers
sort of right in that range. Think I made it thirteen.
I think the value is probably gone. Like you know,
so there was value in NC State in the early
going because NC State was bad last year, right, like
they just weren't a very good team. Will Wade's taking over.
I don't think the books were really sure how to
fully like price Like this team, new coach, all these
new players. I think they've got it priced correctly. Now
doesn't mean NC State's not winning by twenty here, which
is the way I would lean toward this going. So
no play for me, but I'm just you're gonna have that.
That's gonna have to be an egregious number for me
to go against Wade. And one more thing I'll say
about Will Wade. I think he's I just think go
back to something Rob said a couple of weeks ago,
like I think he's kind of on a mission, Like
I think he wants to throw up twenty point wins,
like and flex on people right now in his new job.
You know, he's still got like the chip on his
shoulder from the whole LSU thing. And I think we're
gonna see that play out of the margins of victory
for this NTI State team. All right, Garth, let's go
to your play. First of all, thank you very much. Appreciate,
appreciate the donation of the show. The likes, the subscribes,
the comments help us tremendously. Brian Power, I'm gonna go
to you first here. I know you probably didn't want
this one brought up, but he brings up West Georgia,
and of course that was you know, you had a
loss on the on the total in that game, which
went completely nuts, especially at the end. All of a sudden,
I'm like checking scores in that game, and like suddenly
they were in the nineties. I was like, what happened?
Because it wasn't like that wasn't like the it didn't
look like that's where it was going at first. But
it was a crazy sort of like ninety something to
ninety something. But I want to read Garth's question out
and then I'll get the question off the screen and
we'll go to you. So I guess a two parter here. First,
when he said it's a trend, he stumbled upon this
week Hawaii home first half unders have hit nine to
the last thirteen. They don't play a road game till
January first. Yeah, they don't play much. They have like
a huge gap. I think the Hawaii just played three
games in three days. I had a nice winner with
Utah Tech on late Saturday night in that game, which
I believe was the first half under. They've got like
a three week break from like mid December, like two
and a half week break until that game on January first.
Just something I thought I would point out. But the
game he wants to talk about is his favorite play,
which is West Georgia plus three and a half. So
I'm gonna let Brian start it off. I have an
opinion on the side here, But do you have any
interest going back to the well with West Georgia or
the total in this game? Yeah?
Speaker 3: I was dead wrong with West Georgia in the last game.
You know, I took a look at what they had
done against UCLA. They made thirteen threes, very uncharacteristic for
West Georgia in that game, Trig, and they still only
finished with sixty two points. So I'm like, well, okay,
we're not going to make that ty threes and he
only finished with sixty two. You're not gonna do Well,
what do they do against Nebraska? Held the fifty three
points on twenty nine percent shooting, including four of twenty
four for three.
Speaker 1: There.
Speaker 3: I get the Citadel is bad relative to Nebraska and UCLA. Okay,
I get that you have to factor in the strength
of opponent there, but I just I just did not
see that coming. I kind of want to go back
to the well at the under here against West For
the record, West Georgia is playing Tennessee Tech Gang and yeah,
you mentioned how things just spiraled crazy out of late
in that game against the Citadel. For West Georgia, I
just wanted to bring the box score up here real
quick for that. But maybe I can get to that
when I after I kick it to Rob, I can
I can fill that in. But yeah, my my gut
reaction with West Georgia is trig that.
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 3: Maybe I'm just I have a bad read on this team,
but I was so wrong I ended up being so
I actually want to stubbornly keep my position because I
just don't think that this team's going to shoot as
well as they have from distance the last two games.
I would slightly towards the under with this West Georgia team,
because you know, particularly on the highway here away from home,
you would not suspect a team like this could continue
shooting this well from three.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll tell you. I'll talk about the side I mean, Garth,
I mean, I'm very very much in agreement with you
on West Georgia plus. The point here's sort of a
conundrum I'm having across the board. At this point in
the season. We now have like what roughly, Oh no,
it's not roughly. I think we've been going at this
for two weeks. So you've got teams that have played
four or five games now. And I'll let Rob chime
in on this, because this is just more of a
general point, but it's illustrated by this game right here.
I make West Georgia minus one, Okay, so that would say,
you know, you'd say, well, you make West Georgia minus one.
There's four and a half's out there at this point.
This is this is s team to four and a half.
But two weeks ago, like Opening night, I probably would
have just played it. Now we're in the we're in
the part of the year where it's like I've got
to start getting away from some of my projections and
looking at the actual games that we've seen play so
far this season. Now, you know, we've only it's not
a huge sample, but Tennessee Tech, I mean they hung
around with Western Kentucky and Charlotte. Those are kind of
steps up for this team. Uh, not much I can
draw from their last two games, which were non non
D one games. Uh. West Georgia hung around to cover
with UCLA. I think ucla A may have had some
guys out in that game. I'm still lost by twenty one.
I've said on a couple of occasions, I think I
think the Citadel is really really bad, like might not
win a conference game bad, one of the worst teams
in Division One. So yes, they do get the win there.
So it's like my number, certainly just West george is
the right side here, but I just don't I'm not
confident enough in my handicap of either team I think
to just play that. But it's on my list. It's
something that I'm thinking about I'll have to like kind
of look at that one for a little while.
Speaker 3: I just I just want to dart and real quick
that West Georgia shot fifty eight percent overall last time
out fifty in the game against at fifty percent from three.
I it was six for twelve from three, so it
was not a particularly high volume that they took. I
just trigger for me, I just always I get a
little nervous betting a team a game after they shoot
that well, particularly, you know, I just I just get
a little nervous doing that. That that that would be
my apprehension with the West Georgia side, especially now that
they're playing on the road, you know, So, I mean
the shooting regression can hit.
Speaker 1: And I'll go to you, Rob, I just want to
give you a chance to sort of chime in on
that topic where it's like, now we've got some NC
and data, how do you start getting away from the
projections or I guess I'll just ask you a question,
do you how long do you stick to your projections.
Speaker 2: It's a great question because the projections can't really you
can't form a lot of confidence in them when they're
playing these bad non conference teams, right, I mean, like
you said, we say it every day. What do we
make of these games? We sort of toss them to
the side. So, yeah, maybe they've played four or five,
maybe only one or two have been real games. And
it's hard to make a take a stance where you're
going to stick to your projector well, let's say this,
it's hard to make a stance where you're going to
throw away your projection preseason after just seeing one or
two games against a good team. Now, I will say this,
somebody like Xavier, we can firmly say that if you
thought Xavier was going to be good, you were dead wrong.
They're not good. That's not to say they won't get
a little better as the season goes on. But these
are all so situational. Like everything else in sports betting,
you have to kind of treat them one by one
and not under a huge umbrella saying all of my
projections are you know, not going the way I thought.
I just want to say this real quick. When you
do this, and some of this we do on the fly, right,
games like this we do on the fly. I wouldn't
know Tennessee Tech's free throw percentage off the top of
my head until I just looked and saw that they
shoot forty eight point six percent from the line, three
hundred and sixty fifth in the nation. That's horrendous. So
I'm going back to what I had said earlier. I
like to know who's the culprit for shooting these miserable
free throws. And in the case of Tennessee Tech, they
haven't shot hardly any The leader on their team has
shot seven free throws this year, so that number could
be a little bogus when you have guys that even
even shot five free throws this season, you know what
I mean. So for Tennessee Tech, who knows this game.
I won't play guys, But if I was going to play,
I would play the head coach, John Pelfrey, and I
would play it from an isolated angle of And you know,
the total has come down from one fifty four and
a half to one fifty and a half whatever at
four point move and at some point there's always pushback,
But for me, the pushback would be on the Tennessee
Tech team total sits here at seventy six and a half.
Adam mentioned the two games they've played against Western Kentucky
and Charlotte. They posted seventy and sixty five against those
two teams, you would think they could get to seventy seven.
Against West Georgia, pace is going to be a little
bit better and the defense certainly isn't going to be
as good. One thing that's negated here real quick looking
at the analytics, Tennessee Tech has a real problem ball handling,
but West Georgia doesn't take it away from anybody, So
maybe that problem gets negated here in Tennessee Tech gets
to seventy seven, that would be my best look. And
believe me, guys, that's just a surface look on this game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'll just put a bow on it here
by saying Garth like that would be my bet in
this game did make it's on my long list. If
I was more confident on my gauge of these teams,
because like they're not up in my neck of the
woods as much, I don't do as much a sun
or OVC, like, I'd be more inclined to bet a
difference on my number to where the market is. But
I'm just not. Now, let's say it was Jay buff
I got you here, I see I see you. I
know you're going to this game tonight I know we
got to get you in here. And now let's say
it was a game like this, Niagara Lemoyne, two teams
I've I've seen a ton, I'd be far more inclined to, like,
trust my number and fire on it. Brian Power. We
saw Lemoine together last week. We did out Bowling Green.
They didn't play a great second half, but I left
more impressed with them than I already was. I actually
think Leamoyne's gonna be pretty good this year. What was
your takeaway from that game? How do you feel about
the Dolphins?
Speaker 3: I hope I'm not taking this from you, but okay,
good because I think this could be pretty popular comment
here by me a pretty popular comment for our comments section.
By the way, guys, keep those comments coming. If you're
watching us live, and if you're catching us on the replay,
you can comment as well and we'll get back to
you later in the day. But Lemoyne is gonna be
my leg of today's parlay. I give me Lemoyne minus
one oh five on the money line trig. They return
home after three consecutive road games. Loved the situations, but
they lost all three of those road games. You mentioned
the one we were in attendance for at Bowling Green.
He just looked at the final score. You're like, oh
my goodness, they lose by twenty three as a twelve
point dog. He must have not played ball. They were
in that game for thirty minutes thirty plus, but it
just fell apart late for him. They came out shooting
the ball relatively well, and then just predictably when ice cold.
I don't know if they were sick of those two guys,
that guy yelling in the crowd or whatever he got
to him. I know, I know he's worth at least
a half point in there. But not only did they
were they competitive for more than a half at Bowling Green.
They were competitive at Xavier easily covered at twenty five
point number. Now I think we're all uncovered the fact
that Xavier is not going to be particularly great this year.
But still, if you're a team like Lemoyne to hang
with them and only lose by five on the road,
I think that's a good sign. The UMass game last
time out that didn't go well, but again that's their
third or three consecutive road games eventually, and they did
cover as fifteen and a half point dogs. They were
very If not for a horrible last five minutes against
Bowling Green Drink, Lemoyne could have gone three to zero
against the number on that road trip. Here they return home,
they should be happy. I think they look at this say, hey,
this is a game we can win. Let's get some
positive vibes going, Let's get this season point in the
right directrection. And they're taking on a Niagara team off
back to back wins and covers outright upset at Binghamton
for Niagara. Then they cover the number as a favorite
against Delaware date Niagara lost a ton from last year.
You guys are able to speak on that better than I.
But one thing I can tell you is in the
NC State VCU game I reference. You know VCU struggles
on the glass. Well, Niagara gives up a lot of
second chance operating. They're not so good on the glass either.
So leamoy after three straight road games, three straight road loss,
this trick returns home and the Dolphins go swimming for
a victory. That's my legati parlance.
Speaker 1: The key to this game, Brian, what we need to
know is if Jay Buff is leading the team out.
That's what we need to know. If he's leading the
team out, you know, not to fade them as you know,
you you learned that the hard way. You bet against
him when he led Syracuse out onto the court, and
I believe they ran NC State out of the building.
Maybe that's the Jay Buff we need to know if
you're leading the team out of the floor.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, I'll never forget that, Jay Buff. I've broke
broke the man's heart fading Syracuse. I didn't know, Jay Buff,
that you were leading Syracuse on the court that game.
I don't, you know. I do follow you on Twitter,
but you know I.
Speaker 1: Mean that in that gym, In that gym, you can
pretty much just walk. You could probably just walk in
and say, hey, can we can we lead you your
you know the locker rooms right there. It's a glorified
high school, the Ted Grant Court. I believe it's called
over about thirty minutes from where I live. Nice little building,
an enjoyable place to watch a game as far as
Lamoyne is concerned. So my number came out right on
the number, which is like Niagara minus one. But historically
I always bump Greg Paulus up. I think Greg Paulis
is a tremendous basketball coach. He every year he takes
it just a horrific roster with Niagara and turns it
into a less bad roster, like a less bad team. Right.
They're never never at the top of the league. But
he takes a team that should finish at the bottom
of the league and finishes like seventh in the MAC
or like totally overachieves based on what he's got. My
problem with this Niagara team is is I think they
might I don't even know if he can do it
this year with this roster. I just don't have a
ton of of faith in what they have there. Every
year he pretty much loses his best couple of players.
It's just how it is at this point, and I'm
just not sure that there's that I have less optimism
around Niagara. I think they might finish at the bottom
of the MAC, whereas Lemoyne I think is going to
be pretty good of there. I think they're back competing
in the NEC. I think you know, their their coach,
Nate Champion. It talked about the defense falling apart last year,
the quote unquote good players they lost. AJ Dansler goes
to bowling UH Coastal Carolina O Cipher Owens to Tarlatan State,
they weren't necessarily like defensive guys. I think the gonna
play better defense this year. I'm pretty much in on
the Moyn so, Brian, I am with you. I very
much agree with your parlay Leg and moy The only
reason I didn't play it is because I just Paulus
always kills me in these spots where he's always got
his team ready to play. That's the only reason.
Speaker 3: I mean, I just I just look at it from
the Lemoynes situation, and I'm sure a lot of people
in the chat looked it that way.
Speaker 2: Rob.
Speaker 3: I don't know what you think about this. You know,
a team returns home, they've just gotten beat three straight
times on the road. You just need him to get
the win here at home. It seems like an idea,
Like from a handicapping situation. It just seems like an
ideal spout to back the Dolphins here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'll say real quick, guys, I mean, in
my world, the people who got it right right off
the bat were the guys who played under Adam. You
mentioned Greg Paulis. Greg Paulis might be hey, you know
how he keeps his team good and relevant. They just
they shortened games. They're so slow, and you know, if
you're overmatched, slow the game down. I mean, make the
forty minutes go away, quicker, keep the score down. This
total's going from forty three and a half down to
thirty forty three to thirty nine and a half. I
still think there's room in this game. Brian, you talked
about Lemoinnes rebounding or excuse me, Niagara's rebounding, and they
just don't get second chances. It's a lot of one
and done through the analytics here, and if you're one
and done, some teams will take that rebound and run
with it. Lamoit's not necessarily going to get up and
go with the rebound, right, It's gonna come down their
methodical team too. I just to me, this game has
like sixty nine to sixty four written all over it.
One thirty three, one thirty five in that section right there.
Total's probably still too high. There's still some wig over them.
I think to play under here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, just to put a quick number of Niagara bottom
twenty in the country an offensive rebounding rate, so they're
not getting they're not getting a lot of second chances.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's just like again, that was a bad
defensive team last year in Lemoyne. They are much more
focused on being better defensively this year and or early
on like they they I'm really high on that Bowling
Green team we saw last week. I think they're gonna
be much better than people think. They're big. They have,
they have size like they Lemoyne hung in there until
they got like until Bowling Green just hit the haymaker
final ten minutes of the game, and I thought they
defended well in the first half. Like, uh, I'm buying Lamoyne.
So even though I didn't, I haven't played this yet.
I think you guys are on the right side. And
I know Jay buff is there. I know that's the
side he likes, and I'm very much in agreement with
you guys. And I'll say.
Speaker 2: One last thing on that game. I'll say one last thing, Brian,
you talked about the UMass covered. Let's not forget that's
a Frank Martin coach team at UMass and you're covered
against them. So all the accolades you guys have thrown
out about LeMoyne's Lemoinn playing pretty good against their schedule
so far. Maybe that's the most impressive when you go
up against a Frank Martin squad and cover and you're
lamoy and so just another reason for why maybe the
Dolphins are the right side here. And I don't think
the swimming dolphins. Adham has explained this to me before.
Dolphins do not swim.
Speaker 1: We don't have an ocean here in Sarah Houston, New York.
It is a religious reference, is how we got the
dolphin mascot.
Speaker 3: We'll swim up to the heavens then, how about that?
Can we do that?
Speaker 2: Okay? There, we.
Speaker 1: Swim up to the window hopefully after you guys can Okay,
I want to go back to Rob here is kind
of a resident Missouri Valley guy. And so we've got
a couple of people asking about Drake College of Charleston.
The one thing I will say about Drake, as as
I tea this one up for you, Rob, is not
only well they clearly missed their head coach, who is
now the head coach of Iowa, but Owen Larson is
clearly their best player and he I've heard it's probably
mid December before he steps on the court for the Bulldogs.
They had a bad loss over the weekend to SIU Edwardsville.
I would say it's legit that they miss him a lot.
And I don't know if I could put a dime
on Drake right now because of that. So talk to
me Drake and then Chris Max College or Charleston team.
Speaker 2: What do you think? Yeah, And for Drake, guys, Eric Henderson,
for what it's worth, South Dakota State was a really
good program in the summit under Eric Henderson. But it
is different when you're walking into Drake. He didn't necessarily
play this style. You want to have different recruits. Again,
it's the square peg into a round hole with Drake.
Right now, you come in, you have what's left over.
It's not necessarily what you want to work with. Personnel wise.
They go to the portal, you get some recruits, et cetera,
et cetera, but it takes time. Drake's results are not good, guys.
I mean, Simpson will throw o the way, but they
did just get beat by Edwardsville by two points sixty
one fifty nine. So they couldn't even be Edwardsville at
drake Own game, so to speak, at least until Henderson
gets this thing his way lost to Bob Morrison overtime.
It's not a good team at this point in time.
And for Charleston, remember they played those back to backs
early on and then they had like six I don't know,
I should pull it up in front of me, but
I'm gonna guess that it was about five or six
days off and then they came out and routed their
next opponent. When Charleston can get out in the open
floor and go, and I think they're gonna have their
way here against Drake because, like I said, Drake to
me is in a somewhat of a transition period. They
don't really know their identity yet. Charleston knows their identity.
It's gonna be get out and go, get out and score.
Can you stop us? If they get a lead? A
slower side gets a little frustrated. No, the slow side
is always good when they're front running. It's not necessarily
as good when they're chasing. So to me, this play
just on handicapping one oh one angles and styles has
to go to Charleston. I think that's the way I
would play it. Guys, they're well rested again for this game,
and that arena. You know, it's not the toughest venue
in the country, but it's a tough arena to play
in Charleston. They've been good the last few years, so
I would think the money's correct here. The question would
be has the price gotten out of hand. I'm not
so sure it has, guys, because Charleston, because they score
so much, they can widen margin. Haven't played it, but
if I had to lean, I would probably still say
you get a shade of wiggle room with Charleston at
this point in the season. So College of Charleston or
nothing in that case for me.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Robi, you were correct. Charleston had five days off
before they hosted South Carolina State. They run them out
of the gym, winning by twenty seven as a seventeen
point favorite. So only one game in the last nine
days for Charleston after that, back to back they are
very well. My concern, and I think it is my
only concern with betting Charleston at this point, is the number,
as rob has mentioned, has got Now. We've talked about
this a lot of about it in a lot of
games the first two weeks of the show, where we
look like, oh, this number really seems like it's getting
a little rich and then it still doesn't matter and
the team covers every number, I don't know, more than
two possessions more than you know. You're looking at seven
and a half. Now, that's a several point move, and
when you look at the Drake side, extremely disappointing. Obviously,
they've failed to cover all three of their line games.
Rob mentions the overtime loss to Robert Morris. Tregg mentioned
the loss to SIU Edwardsville last time up. Both of
those were just two point losses. They were seven and
a half point favorites in those games. My concern with
betting the favorite right now is you're in a situation
the numbers moved, the underdog was favored in each of
its last two games, the underdog's coming up back to
back outright losses. So does the point spread, which what
we always call the great equal eyer here does it make?
Is there a point where all of a sudden, hey
this has gotten away. But hey, there are some teams
the books are just slow to catch on. I mean,
take a look at oh God, reference Loyola of Chicago. Right,
it doesn't matter, but the but that's a team that
just the books are just slow. That is just way
worse than everyone imagines. So maybe that's the case with
Drake too, But I would be hesitant about laying this
current number trag ye against the team off back to
back outright losses as a favorite, I think eventually, unless
if the market was just that off on Drake, but
which could be the case, but I think I'll sit
on the sidelines for this one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I think the market was that off on
Drake because I don't think they factored in how big
of a deal Owen Larson is, like he is the
best player on that roster. It's like not really close.
And so to like you have Henderson come in, he's inheriting,
you know, he's he's trying to build a new roster.
You have this one guy that that would be like
the game changer that you could build around, and then
you find out that he's probably not gonna play until
you know. I don't I don't think it was like
fully known how long he would be out. I remember
hearing that he'd probably missed that field of sixty eight
opener when they played Northern Arizona. But like then on
one of the broad on one of the Drake broadcasts,
I think it was actually that one. They were like
probably mid novel mid or early to mid December. So
to me, the books did not factor that incorrectly because
he's very, very important to that team. Now, like you, Brian,
I looked they said, man, they might luck them their
way into a win at some point, like there's still
a good coach, great coach this there's like a great
coach for this level. And this is still a like
you got to think they're like a little bit capable,
so you know, I mean he come off of losses
to Robert Morrison and Edward words Ville. Like I knew
that that cole U. I knew I showed an edge.
What I knew minus four was the wrong number for
this game. I think four and a half or wherever
this opened for Charleston. Yes, I still couldn't bring myself
to click it, and now it's like, now I kind
of wish I did because it's like seven what is it? Seven?
Seven and a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And the thing is, though, you don't need him
to win, right, I mean, I mean, if Drake loses
this game by six, Drake covers the spread. I believe
that's how it worked, correct me if I'm wrong, exactly. Okay,
there you go, Okay.
Speaker 1: Listen, Like I I kind of my gut tells me
Drake's gonna be a mess, and I'm kind of hoping
they are. I hope that Drake is awful until I
can get wind of Larson coming back, because I think
he'll be such an impactful player to them that the
second he's back, they'll be way way undervalued and I
think you can like start to make some some money
going forward. I'm like, Drake is like, because you know
mid December, you're probably maybe looking at either the UAB
game or the North Dakota Like, so here's early to
mid December for Drake, UAB, North Dakota State, Murray State
on the road to Evansville. If you know he's coming
back and you can beat the books to that, you'll,
I mean, you'll have a great bet there because they're
probably an underdog in every single one of those games. Yeah,
I just have no interest on him here, but I
don't want to really want to punch back either, So
I'm going to move it along and I'll go with
my parlay Lake. Your boy will be in the building
heading down to Albany tonight for Colgate Sianna, my alma mater,
can't wait. Very very excited about the Sienna team this year,
probably probably the most probably the highest I'd been on
a Sienna team since the year we well, when we
knew we had Jalen Pickett coming back. So of course, sadly,
Sienna is one of the teams that got robbed from
twenty twenty covid Uh they would they they had an
incredible team that year. They were gonna win the mac
tournament easily, and then of course that NCAA tournament was canceled,
so poor went out for teams like Dayton. You know,
Sianna was one of them. They would have been a
they would have probably I believe that was still we
still had jv On mccollumn that year. I mean it
was a team we had Jalen Pickett, jv On McCollum,
like they ended up going on to play in the
NBA at Penn State. McCollum ended up at Oklahoma and
Georgia Tech. I mean, don't even get me started, but
I'm very, very excited about this Sienna team. I think
McNamara has a loaded roster. I just think that they
are so much better than the market get well. The
market started to give them credit recently. But like they
came out smashed Bryant destroyed Brown. No contesting either of those. Now,
I do want to bring up the same Bottom Venture
game because I think that final score is a tad misleading.
So first, that was a much closer game than the final.
Like Sianna was in that game for long stretches. They
actually led I think in the second half of that
game at one point, and a couple things won. Riley Mulvey,
they're seven foot center who comes off the bench, transferred
from Iowa, got hit in the head, never returned in
that game. Now, I don't think they need I know
they were like testing him for concussions. I don't think
even if he were to be out here, they don't
need him for this game. But they needed him in
the paint. Bonaventure crushed Sienna in the rim at that game,
just absolutely abused Sienna at the rim. It was the
difference in the game. Justice Shoutz went down. Believe he returned.
I think he ended up like limping off. It was
like scary for a minute, it looked like a non
contact injury. But he came back as far as I know,
he's gonna play tonight. So again, even if Mulvey were
to be out here, I just don't think he's like
someone that would be like that it would matter against Colgate.
He again, he's not in the starting lineup, he comes
off the bench, but they really needed that rim protector
against Bonaventure. Now Colgate is going to be better than
they were last year. But I think, and I've said
this a couple of times on the show, the Entire
Patriot League, it is worse. And the reason that's happening
so I get. I get to go to Colgate press
conferences every once in a while when I go down
to a game there, not sure, not sure why they
let me in, but they do. It's always and I actually, Brian,
I asked a question at one not too long ago.
I was pretty proud of myself. But Matt langele head
coach of Colgate, said, you know, this is something he
talked about last year when Branden Smith decided to go.
I hope I didn't mess his name up. The one,
the one guard decided to go to Gonzaga sit out
the year he left Colgate and like what would have
been their best player, he decided to transfer to Gonzaga
and sit the year, and he basically said, like, this
is the first time I've lost a guy that wasn't
a grad transfer. So Colgate doesn't have grad school. So
like guys like Nelly Cummings, who was a great Colgate player,
transferred to pitt for his final year, but he was like,
this is the first time I've really lost my best player.
I think you're starting to see that all over the
Patriot League. Now. Noah Williamson from buck Noll goes to
Alabama and these rosters just aren't as good. So even
though Colgate is probably up near the top of that league,
like the MAC and Sienna Lake, they've got some nil money.
I know, we we paid players. Someone's driving around Albany
with a Sienna decal on their car right now, Like
they they've got some you know, some juice in their
their budget. Being able to bring Gavin Dotie back, like
this is a good roster. Colgate just doesn't have that.
I think there's starting to be a difference between those
two conferences Mac Patriot League, but the books still price
them out sort of similar. So I laid the six
here with Sienna. I made it eight and a half.
I was hoping to get a little bit of a
better number, but that is a play. That's a three
percent play for me, and that will be my parlay leg,
even though I think we might have to take a
worse number in the parl. Like and someone throw me
the current spread for Sianna Colgate. I think it's like
seven or six and a half.
Speaker 3: I'm see, I'm seeing six and a half.
Speaker 1: Give the kids six and a half.
Speaker 3: We'll take give me six and a half. Draft Kings
and DraftKings and fan duel both at six.
Speaker 1: And a half, right, And yeah, I mean, if you
guys want to throw anything in there, I just again, Hey,
I'll actually I'll lean on you guys because I'm I'm
so obnoxiously high on Sienna and I'm I'm clearly biased, right,
I went there, that's my team, that's my school. Do
you I'll throw it out to you. Do either of
you agree with my disagree with my assessment of Sienna?
Am I too high on this team in your opinion?
And you could say, no, Trigg, You're right, that's fine too, right.
Speaker 2: No, Yeah, you go ahead. I would say there's a
couple of things here that maybe affect the cnside. First
of all, it's been you know, the schedule hasn't been
as overwhelming as maybe it could be Coldgate, though I
don't know, Adam. It's hard for me to make a
case for Coldgate here. In years past, I would have
I'm trying to get to some numbers here. Well, I'm
gonna say no.
Speaker 1: Point, Rob to your first point, Brown and Brian are
both considerably down from what they were the last couple
of years, So I would agree with that those were
kind of cupcakes out the gate. I'll agree with you there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just you know, and my first look was
from a total's perspective, Adam, So I'm trying to go
over fort side for you here. I can't make an
argument against it. My initial reaction here in this game
was to go ahead and play this thing over. The
total problem for me is I keep the past Colgate
reference in my mind and it's really not the same.
Coldgate team hasn't been the same from distant shooting, you know,
the classic Colgate teams that we know. So I haven't
no play on it. I can't argue you off of Siena.
I think I might still lean a little bit over,
but I won't play the game. I'll pay well to
the audience. There, Boat, that's all I got.
Speaker 3: Go ahead, Brian, Yeah, so Sienna, here's I'll say one
thing for Ciena. I mean, they've done what they've done
so far despite not shooting well from three. And again
I've talked about that with a lot of games, not
just today, but in the first two weeks season. I'm
going to continue to talk about it through March.
Speaker 1: Game.
Speaker 3: You know, three point variant is a real thing in
this sport. And yes, there are some teams that just
stink from three, and there are some teams who actually
are very good from three. But if you're having success
without shooting the three, well, eventually those shots from distance
are going to start going in. And if you're already
having success, that's actually a good thing. So I would
say that, you know, the way Sienna covers this number,
in my opinion, I thought, my personal opinon was the
number looked a little heavy. But the way Sienna covers
this number is if the threes are falling and it's
at home, so it's more that that's obviously at home
is where you are more likely all this where your
variance is is more likely to go pod.
Speaker 1: So I think you just both made a really good
case for the over. And I'm not a huge totals guy,
but I so much agree with the over now for
a couple of reasons. One, this Colgate offense is better
than it was last year. They don't have Jeff Woodward
slowing them down anymore. Langle, he was so he played
behind Keegan Records until Keegan Records left, you know, graduated.
I think he graduated then Woodward was a starter. He's
just like big plotting six to eleven guy. He really
like took Coldgate out of what they how Langle likes
the space, the floor, and how fast he likes to play.
He's no longer there. So like Colgate's offense should be
much better overall this year and they should be able
to play a little faster. To go to your point,
Brian about the three point shooting, that's really not Sienna's ema.
Like they want to pick and roll. They can get
to the they want, you know, the dick. Gavin Dodie's
a freak show, Like he shouldn't even be in the
MAC at this point. So lucky to have him back.
He can get to the rim he just plays so hard,
great dribble penetration with their guards. But then they run
pick and roll with Tasmin Goodrick, who is the former
I think he came from cal Baptists or something, A
big Australian dude who they now have that actually is
starting over Maulvie. Everyone thought Maulvy was gonna be the
starting center coming from Iowa. But but Goodrook is the
guy that's been starting there. So if the threes fall,
see you, Cole gets losing by fifteen. Sorry, just like
if Sianna is hitting from three, this is not going
to be close. But and and so the fact that
they haven't been falling yet is uh is interesting.
Speaker 3: And I mean even if the who's not there, you
would expect the percentage to rise. And what it is
right now, I mean that's I mean, what a twenty
six point seven percent is very very low no matter
what kind of volume you're shooting again from distance?
Speaker 1: All right, I want to get back in here. We'll
dealer's choice to Robin if he wants to close this
parlay out, that's cool too. What game would you like
to talk about, Vina?
Speaker 2: Well, I'll go ahead and close the parlay out at
him because I'm going to take a dog West Coast.
I think Oregon State plus thirteen and a half against
Oregon tonight. This Oregon start to the season is so
reminiscent of last year to me reading Dana Altman, coach.
Remember last year, guys, it was maybe still eight ten
games into the season where Dana Altman would tell any
reporter that wanted to put a microphone in front of
his face, We're not that good right now. We're not
that good right now. And yet the betting market never
really believed in that, and yet Oregon had such a
they came out at the end of the year, the
talent level rose but and perform the way it should.
But the same start is going on this year with Oregon.
They shot pretty well from three last game, but they
haven't had dominant You know, when you have the guys
that they have, Shelstad and Biddle and company, you're supposed
to be a lot better than the results have shown
so far. And here we go again, Dana Altman saying,
I wish we were more aggressive. I wish we'd go
to the rim more problem, problem, problem, nothing really, you know,
coach doesn't like the way they're playing so far. One
team that played them really well early on last year
was Oregon State played the three points and reading a
couple of things earlier this morning. Wayne Tinkle obviously is
a heck of a coach right spent a lot of time.
I forget Montana, wherever it was at. It was one
of those big sky schools that I can't remember right now.
But what they did really well was they got to
Biddle and defended him really really well. And they sort
of do it cluster wise. They don't really do it
one man wise. They do it cluster wise. One of
the best ways to frustrate Biggs is to send a
bunch of little gnats down there. When the ball is
being held knee high waist, they just slap and bother
a big guy. So I think they've got that in
their minds that they know how to defend him. They've
pulled out three really really close games. Oregon State has
foul shooting. I think they've made four free throws at
the end of the game. Josiah Lake is the guy
who made the free throws. They're a pretty veteran backcourt,
which is always crucial in a game like this. Couple
of freshmen in that starting lineup, but it hasn't seemed
to be a concern yet. They out defended North Texas
when they beat North Texas by a little I just
to meet thirteen and a half looked like a real lot,
a pretty heavy price to pay with a favorite that
again the coach is saying, we haven't even reached near
our potential yet. I don't know that they reach it
here against a team that's always going to consider themselves
a little brother. If you want to talk about a
rivalry where the underdog always gets up and maybe Oregon
is the double digit favorite always thinks they're going to
spank them. But I take that three point win last
or excuse me, three point separation last year between these
two teams as a real positive for Oregon State. And
I like the way Oregon State has played close games.
One close games, they can slow it down enough. Oregon
shot real well from three the previous game, but they're
probably gonna have to do that again to create a
ton of separation here, and I don't know that they can.
So for me, guys, the third leg of the parlor
here is going to be Oregon State plus thirteen and
a half.
Speaker 1: All right, I can't disagree with that. I thought that
was a great breakdown. We have eight minutes left, so
I will recap the parlay at the end, but let's
we go quicker through a couple of games. So someone
complimented my zip up right here and said, nice zip
up country club you this is the high Point University
zip up. They are correct. This is probably the nicest
campus I've ever been to, so certainly the nicest building
I've ever been to. The Cuban Center or this game
will be played tonight, is an absolutely tremendous building. And
I so, you know, they come off of the that
they come off of the loss to UAB, and I
want to pull up something I texted you guys before
that game, see if I can find it. And it
was it was essentially like how few games High Point
have played against like non Q three Q four competition
over the last few years. And it kind of alluded
to something we brought up on the show on Friday,
which was their last game, where hey, like, maybe you know,
don't don't count UAB out, especially at the as a
dog against a team that that typically smashes these like
Q three Q four type teams well, what happened. Uab
ran them out of the gym. Now high Point, back
on their home floor, back in their home gym against
a easy, easy Q four. Canisius is bad. They've been
bad for a while. They'll be one of likely be
one of the worst teams in the Matt Conference again
this year. So I do think at the open it
was probably a decent play. I'm kind of right on
the number right now with high Point, but you couldn't.
You could not pay me to take Canisius here. I
think this has high point thirty point win written all
over it. So wanted to touch on that one and
then we have If you guys want to comment on that,
that's fine. But also, Brian, someone's asking me about Lafayette
West Virginia. I know you've had you guys have both
had good. West Virginia takes anything with another big spread
right there.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we've been talking Rob and I about West Virginia
playing slough obviously with the coaching change. But my gut
when I looked at this and the market seems to
get courr here is this could be West Virginia's first
over Lafayette. I think the comment drig was that lafayet
At stinks and where Lafayette and I would concur with that.
Where Lafayette stinks is defensively three Division one opponents. So far,
they've given up eighty five, ninety seven, and ninety seven. Now,
if West Virginia gets a big lead, do they slow
it down? I think that's the concern with betting the
over here. But the number is pretty short, or the
total part of me is pretty low. I would actually
look to an over here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that is. And of course we talked about Lafayette.
I gave out Cornell on the show last week, easy
twenty something point winner, and one of the things I
referenced was, you know, they've had seven foot or justin
Vanderban there for a couple of years. They no longer
have him, and they I mean, Cornell wasn't even I
didn't even think they've played great in that game. I
thought they took a lot of bad shots and they
were just getting second chances. It was Lafayette couldn't, couldn't
get a stop once that that game got in the
flow of the game, and I think they will will
likely to struggle to get here. I'm gonna go to
rob to close it out before we recap the parlay.
Rob is our West Coast degenerate special guy, So we've
got to go to him and see if he's got
one more that can keep us up late tonight. Are
you looking at anything else on the West Coast tonight, Rob.
Speaker 2: Yeah, real quick, guys. Cal State bakers Field against Portland
State here. Remember Bakersfield just played in Mississippi. They kind
of list this as the Rod Barnes Farewell Tour, even
though Rob Barnes isn't the coach of cal State Bakersfield.
But there's Sandwich here with Portland State in between games
where they're gonna play Mississippi Valley State after this. So
my theory was this, it's a tough road trip to
begin with, to get down to Oxford, come all the
way back play Portland State. It's a contrast in styles
here Portland State. For what it's worth, the results have
been really good. Stanford and San Francisco are two good
basketball teams, and they played each one of those to
ten points. Now they get somebody in their wheelhouse who
likes to go slow that they can run with, that
they can run against, let me put it that way,
on their home floor, off along road trip. I think
there's two ways to look at this. Either Portland State
minus the six and a half because I think Bakersfield
may get fatigued late second half here, or Portland State
team total which has now been bent down to seventy
three and a half because the overall total has come down,
so Portland State pays a penalty as well. Their team
total goes down as the full game total comes down.
And that full game total comes down simply based off
of Bakersfield slow footed numbers. I don't know that that's
going to be the predominant force here in this game.
I think Portland State will run. Portland State will get
the temple they want at home. I've talked about that
a zillion times about how I think home teams get
tempo more often than not to go their way. I
think Portland State will have it here if there is
some travel fatigue, so guys I would look if you're
going to stay up late. There's two ways to look
Portland State minus six and a half or Portland State
over seventy three and a half team total. Me being
a totals guy, I prefer the latter, but I'll give
you two ways to look at that one.
Speaker 1: All right, and and we've given you a couple different
ways to look at plays here. I'm gonna gonna, oh,
go ahead, Brian, Yeah, we got.
Speaker 3: Time thumbs up there. That's all just concurrent.
Speaker 1: So no, it's all good. Uh, I guess we'll close
it out quick promo. We've got a great full court
basketball special. It'll get you three days of your chosen handicapper.
And obviously the volume in college basketball it makes that
a very you know, per play, you're probably paying less
than than most other sports. And you know that's that
there's a multitude of good deals on the site, so
check that out. I will recap the parlay here as
we sign off. So I used Ciena minus six as
my part, minus six and a half as my parlay
leg That is a three percent play for clients, but
we played it at minus six. So just just you
know disclosure there, we played minus six. We're gonna use
six and a half in the parlay. Brian Power says.
The Lemoine Dolphins, our guy Jay Buff will be in attendance,
hopefully leading them out to the floor, hopefully grinding a
home of victory for us there, he says, Lemoine plus
one and a half, and then we're headed out west,
hopefully to close out a three teamers since we didn't
hit any three teamers last week. However, we're still I
think plus ten point two to two units on the
season on these Vino says we're gonna close it out
with Oregon State plus thirteen and a half. So Lamoine
plus one and a half, Cianna minus six and a half,
Oregon State plus thirteen and a half. Check out what
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