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<v Speaker 1>I want to welcome everyone back to the Pekenena Show.

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<v Speaker 1>John field House has returned. How are you doing? John?

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<v Speaker 1>All right, man, let's talk about this. This is a

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<v Speaker 1>controversial subject. I don't think anyone that we know wants

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<v Speaker 1>to go to war with Iran. God, I hope not

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<v Speaker 1>not at least people that we truly respect. But something

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<v Speaker 1>that I've been saying for over a year, and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>having lee Enfield on, it was over a year ago,

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<v Speaker 1>right after October seventh when they started talking about war

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<v Speaker 1>with Iran. You know, we basically came to the conclusion

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<v Speaker 1>then and I haven't changed my mind at all, is

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<v Speaker 1>that you can't the United States can't win a war

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<v Speaker 1>with Iran, even if they're fighting alongside Israel, which Israel

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<v Speaker 1>never does. I think that war with Iran is pretty

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<v Speaker 1>much impossible and would just be an endless quagmire. So

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<v Speaker 1>I asked you to come on to talk about it.

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<v Speaker 1>And people have heard yn here before. Your suggestion on

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<v Speaker 1>the coupdetas the look back book went over very well

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<v Speaker 1>and helping me and give adding context to that. People

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<v Speaker 1>have come to know you. But can you give as

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<v Speaker 1>much of your background as you can on you know,

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<v Speaker 1>as far as military goes, and why your opinion, why

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<v Speaker 1>you might have an opinion on this that people can

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<v Speaker 1>listen to.

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<v Speaker 2>Sure start off, John Fieldhouse And before anybody asked, I

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<v Speaker 2>am not. I have never participated any D O D

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<v Speaker 2>pentagon level planning on a hypothetical invasion of Iran, and

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<v Speaker 2>had I done so, it would be a crime for

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<v Speaker 2>me to discuss classified information because frequently comes up anytime

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<v Speaker 2>we discuss these things that will bring up, well, you're

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<v Speaker 2>not a strategic planner who's focused on this, and my

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<v Speaker 2>buddy is, and he says it's great. Is understand that

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<v Speaker 2>a strategic planner, unless something is specifically declassified, something like

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<v Speaker 2>this is going to be classified, which makes it a

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<v Speaker 2>crime to share it. So the only people who are

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<v Speaker 2>going to share it are people directly affiliated with the game,

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<v Speaker 2>and therefore are going to show things that support whatever

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<v Speaker 2>the regime talking point of the moment is. So yet,

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<v Speaker 2>to be very clear, I have never in any way

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<v Speaker 2>participated in strategic level planning for a hypothetical invasion of Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>That said, I am a former military officer, primarily logistics,

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<v Speaker 2>but I've also done some combat arms and some other things.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not going to get into too much detail about those.

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<v Speaker 2>We talked about some of my academic background before, which

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't directly relate to this because most of my stuff's

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<v Speaker 2>in organizational theory. But again, I was a military officer.

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<v Speaker 2>I have done mid level professional military education. I've been

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<v Speaker 2>an instructor at professional mild level excuse me, mid level

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<v Speaker 2>professional military education where for much of the two thousands

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<v Speaker 2>we used a hypothetical invasion of Iran as the war

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<v Speaker 2>game scenario. And consequently, I am not away claiming to

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<v Speaker 2>be an expert on this, but this is something that me,

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<v Speaker 2>as well as you know, maybe a quarter of the

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<v Speaker 2>active duty Army officer cohort of the timeframe I was in,

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<v Speaker 2>have also done. Is we've done a lot of time

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<v Speaker 2>looking at what an invasion of Iran would involved, which

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<v Speaker 2>makes us, I think, very aware of the costs and

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<v Speaker 2>consequences of trying to play around with something like this.

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<v Speaker 1>So I guess one of the things that I'll bring

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<v Speaker 1>up is I talked about when Lee Enfield was on

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<v Speaker 1>the show over a year ago, and he was we

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<v Speaker 1>talked about an Army War College paper that had just

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<v Speaker 1>come out that basically said that the fight that Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>had been undergoing at that time free year and a half.

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<v Speaker 1>The United States wasn't even equipped manpower wise to undertake

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<v Speaker 1>I think Lee said that the I think the paper

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<v Speaker 1>said that in order to do it properly using the

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<v Speaker 1>men who are active right now, you'd probably have to

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<v Speaker 1>institute a draft within three to four months, because that's

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<v Speaker 1>the kind of attrition that you would suffer. So, looking

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<v Speaker 1>back on that and knowing there hasn't really been a

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<v Speaker 1>run on a military enlistment in the last year, what

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<v Speaker 1>kind of manpower do you think you would need for

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<v Speaker 1>an Iranian ground invasion at this point?

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<v Speaker 3>That's a good question. What was it?

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<v Speaker 2>Shinseki said, an invasion of Iraq done properly, we probably

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<v Speaker 2>would have required or was it several hundred thousand men,

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<v Speaker 2>significantly more than what we actually used, and the airport

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<v Speaker 2>didn't have enough manpower to pacify the population afterwards. I

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<v Speaker 2>think Iran would require significantly more, not just manpower, but

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<v Speaker 2>also the weapons and equipment, and unfortunately, some of those

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<v Speaker 2>things take even longer to produce than man power, though

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<v Speaker 2>obviously the man inside is much more important than the weapon.

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<v Speaker 2>That's a good question. Maybe three quarters of a million,

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<v Speaker 2>It's hard to say. I don't even necessarily know an

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<v Speaker 2>answer to that, or would be able to give an

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<v Speaker 2>answer to that, because I don't think it's feasible to

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<v Speaker 2>in any way think that America today or anytime in

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<v Speaker 2>the near future would be able to get that amount

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<v Speaker 2>of man power, largely because I can't imagine anything being

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<v Speaker 2>possible in which conscription could be successfully implemented for essentially

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<v Speaker 2>a war of choice in the Middle East. In a

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<v Speaker 2>best case scenario where you turn on hypothetically the civil

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<v Speaker 2>or the selective service system tomorrow, essentially do what happened,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, the day after Pearl Harbor in the United States.

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<v Speaker 2>It takes I would say, a minimum of six months

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<v Speaker 2>to actually take those people, properly train them, integrate them

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<v Speaker 2>into units where they would be able to do their jobs.

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<v Speaker 2>And that's a best case scenario. And we don't have

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<v Speaker 2>a best case scenario. For instance, we have a selective

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<v Speaker 2>service system that nobody since the Carter administration has really

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<v Speaker 2>thought needed to work. Therefore they haven't really maintained it.

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<v Speaker 2>Not to mention, we have training facilities that it would

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<v Speaker 2>be very difficult to expand those every night things like that,

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<v Speaker 2>to the point it would probably take more like two

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<v Speaker 2>years to even have an army capable of doing this,

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<v Speaker 2>and in a world with global information technology which can

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<v Speaker 2>be used as a targeting tool, you know, that's two

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<v Speaker 2>years where the enemy has a chance to disrupt you

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<v Speaker 2>every or every day along the way. So it's my

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<v Speaker 2>long winded answer is how big. I don't think it's

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<v Speaker 2>even possible, given the amount of time it would take

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<v Speaker 2>to pull that off, to think that that could happen

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<v Speaker 2>in this world.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, well, let's uh, we talked about American forces. What

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<v Speaker 1>do you know about Iranian forces? The Yeah, it's they

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<v Speaker 1>have a standing army. Obviously they have yeah, gott, I'll

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<v Speaker 1>let you go.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>So in fact, if I had thought about that, I

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<v Speaker 2>would have gotten numbers beforehand. So they do have a

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<v Speaker 2>standing army. They also have the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps,

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<v Speaker 2>which involved has their own separate army, their own separate navy,

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<v Speaker 2>their own separate air force. They even have a Marine

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<v Speaker 2>Corps for their separate navy. They also have some law

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<v Speaker 2>enforcement capacity. They had the Besiege, which is a militia

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<v Speaker 2>force somewhat like a national guard that's separate from whatever

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<v Speaker 2>reserve forces may exist in the regular army, and they

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<v Speaker 2>also have the Kods Force goods is Arabic for Jerusalem,

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<v Speaker 2>which you know, which is their Special Forces Force, which

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<v Speaker 2>are the guys who had worked with Iraqi forces during

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<v Speaker 2>the fight against ISIS in Iraq. They're also the guys

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<v Speaker 2>who are working with as Law, who've worked with the

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<v Speaker 2>Syrian military, who have heavily worked as trainers for insurgents,

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<v Speaker 2>as well as regular Arab forces. So yeah, you have

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<v Speaker 2>the regular force, then you have the IERGC, which is

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<v Speaker 2>more than just you know, a one, you know, piece

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<v Speaker 2>of the pie. It's like several things belong to the

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<v Speaker 2>larger IERGC as well as internally, they have security forces

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<v Speaker 2>law enforcement Jender Maris that could be used as you know,

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<v Speaker 2>a security force against invasion as well.

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<v Speaker 1>So here are just some numbers that AI is scraping

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<v Speaker 1>from Wikipedia and Air and Space and Space Forces Magazine.

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<v Speaker 1>Ground Force dree hundred and fifty thousand, Active Air Force,

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<v Speaker 1>thirty seven thousand, Active Navy eighteen thousand, Air Defense fifteen thousand,

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<v Speaker 1>Revolutionary Guard Corps one hundred and twenty thousand elite with

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<v Speaker 1>three hundred and fifty thousand in reserve, and the reserve

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<v Speaker 1>are fully trained. So we're looking at about it this

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<v Speaker 1>would tell me nine hundred and sixty thousand military personnel

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<v Speaker 1>ready to go.

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<v Speaker 3>And that's what they have today.

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<v Speaker 2>Hypothetically, if you're taking two years to build up combat power, yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, every day along the way they get to

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<v Speaker 2>do the same thing.

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<v Speaker 1>So good And part of why IM go ahead, no

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<v Speaker 1>no please.

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<v Speaker 2>Part why I mentioned the amount of the amount of

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<v Speaker 2>time that we're prepared to actually train and organize forces

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<v Speaker 2>for an invasion is understand that American heavy armor, so

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<v Speaker 2>mechanized forces, the kind of heavy brigade combat team equipment abrams.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, they're supporting artillery, Bradley's and whatnot, that kind

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<v Speaker 2>of equipment, it takes a long time to actually get

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<v Speaker 2>them into a theater that isn't fully developed. So interesting,

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<v Speaker 2>complete toll, you know, random facto it is the ABRAMS

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<v Speaker 2>is there one of the largest main battle tanks in

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<v Speaker 2>the world. It's not the largest, probably anymore, but it

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<v Speaker 2>was something that was built to be bigger, heavier than

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<v Speaker 2>most previous tanks of any army in any size. And

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<v Speaker 2>that's partly because for those who don't know a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of the vehicle dimensions, the width, especially the axle with

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<v Speaker 2>on most vehicles comes from the fact that historic roads

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<v Speaker 2>in Europe had that with which actually goes back to

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<v Speaker 2>the Roman Empire. Right that literally the design on wheeled

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<v Speaker 2>vehicles today, you know, the dimensions are heavily influenced because

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<v Speaker 2>that's what the Roman army built. Anyways, Abrams were bigger

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<v Speaker 2>so that it was done without those constraints which made

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<v Speaker 2>them harder to move around. Back in the Cold War,

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<v Speaker 2>war plan was, hypothetically, if we were fighting in the

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<v Speaker 2>Folder Gap, we were fighting, you know, across the inner

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<v Speaker 2>German border. Forces were going to be located there, and

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<v Speaker 2>there was no issue with strategic lift. You had your

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<v Speaker 2>weapons systems in place. It was moving those into a

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<v Speaker 2>combat zone and getting the fight there.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a very.

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<v Speaker 2>Different thing when you have to move them into a

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<v Speaker 2>theater where you don't have those weapons. We know that

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<v Speaker 2>ninety one, the First Golf War, it took a significant

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<v Speaker 2>amount of time. A lot of it was just a

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<v Speaker 2>matter of selifting that heavy equipment to get into the area.

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<v Speaker 2>That's also why it took almost two years to invade

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<v Speaker 2>Iraq in two thousand and is. It takes a significant

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<v Speaker 2>amount of time to get those equipment sets into a

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<v Speaker 2>theater that has not developed and for those.

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<v Speaker 3>Who don't know.

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<v Speaker 2>If we deploy combat team, a heavy brigade combat team

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<v Speaker 2>today or in the recent past, we don't you know,

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<v Speaker 2>have them load up all their equipment and send them

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<v Speaker 2>to combat. We actually preposition weapons systems in that area.

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<v Speaker 2>A lot of this is off shore in you know,

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<v Speaker 2>prepossession vessels, or they're in long term storage facilities. We

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<v Speaker 2>fly the people in, they fall in on that equipment,

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<v Speaker 2>they organize, and they go out and prepare to fight. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>the problem with that approach is if the equipment sets

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<v Speaker 2>aren't there already, as I keep repeating, is it takes

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<v Speaker 2>a long time to get them into that theater, which

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<v Speaker 2>is a big part of the problem with a hypothetical

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<v Speaker 2>war with Iran. Where are we gonna put them? Because

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<v Speaker 2>again that you know, heavily influences which direction we were

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<v Speaker 2>going to invade country from. Not to mention, it really

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<v Speaker 2>gives away to the enemy which way you're coming. I know,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm rambling.

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<v Speaker 1>No, No, that's fine. So obviously, so let's say ground

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<v Speaker 1>invasion is off of the off the table. I think

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<v Speaker 1>most people got.

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<v Speaker 2>No, it's more than it's off the table. It's the

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<v Speaker 2>fact that it's it would be so long to set

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<v Speaker 2>up so expensive to set up. And again, you make

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<v Speaker 2>yourself a target the longer you take right. It's like

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<v Speaker 2>cocking a fist in a fist fight. The other guy

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<v Speaker 2>knows you're going to hit him now, right, which is

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<v Speaker 2>part of the way train fighters train things like the jab.

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<v Speaker 2>So when the guy's cocking his fist for his big

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<v Speaker 2>billy bad ass punch, you jab him and then you

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<v Speaker 2>cross him and he goes down, you know. And it's

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<v Speaker 2>in some ways it's the same concept. Is it takes

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<v Speaker 2>a long time to get those forces there. Every step

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<v Speaker 2>along the way is an opportunity for a competent enemy

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<v Speaker 2>to get them there. And again, which direction are you

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<v Speaker 2>going to come in from? In you know, where you

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<v Speaker 2>preposition your equipment decides that and you take away a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of your flexibility that way, the enemy is going

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<v Speaker 2>to have a real good idea which direction you're coming from,

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<v Speaker 2>just by where you're prepositioning your equipment.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, and I think you make a really good point there,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's a point where we were trying to make

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<v Speaker 1>last year. As far as you know where staging areas

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<v Speaker 1>you're not going to do in Afghanistan, Turkey is not

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<v Speaker 1>going to allow you to do it Iraq, what you

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<v Speaker 1>would have to reinvade Iraq. Saudi Arabia is not going

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<v Speaker 1>to allow you to do it, especially not especially not

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<v Speaker 1>at this point with everything that's been going on since

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<v Speaker 1>October seventh. I mean, there was none of the stands

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<v Speaker 1>are going to allow you to do it. Above you can't.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Saudi Arabia involves the whole issue of an amphibious landing,

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<v Speaker 2>which we can talk about, but I would say save

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<v Speaker 2>that for later because that's a whole bunch of other

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<v Speaker 2>issues along with it. But yeah, those areas you're not

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<v Speaker 2>going to come from Iraq if for no other reason

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<v Speaker 2>we effectively put the Shai government in charge there, and

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<v Speaker 2>every day that we're prepositioning stuff in Iraq is a

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<v Speaker 2>chance for them to keep shooting at us. And if

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<v Speaker 2>it has to become a situation which we have to

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<v Speaker 2>forcibly attack and subdue Iraq in order to go into Iran,

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<v Speaker 2>that's why, well, congratulations, now you were at war with

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<v Speaker 2>Iraq and you haven't even gotten to Iran yet.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know, one of the things that a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people who've never actually looked at a map of

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<v Speaker 1>Iran don't realize how perfectly situated Tehran. Tehran is.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Tehran's in the northern part of the country, which

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<v Speaker 2>is weird for something that's a know, a major maritime

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<v Speaker 2>power to have their capital nowhere near the ocean. It's

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<v Speaker 2>on the opposite end of the country. So it's it's

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<v Speaker 2>to say it's perfect, well, it's it's in a place

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<v Speaker 2>that nearly makes it impossible to it seize that capital

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<v Speaker 2>from the sea. For those who don't know, for most

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<v Speaker 2>of the two thousands, the wargame scenario of invading Iran,

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<v Speaker 2>and to be clear, this is a declassified scenario so

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<v Speaker 2>I can talk about it involved taking again the mechanized

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<v Speaker 2>forces heavy forces, using two ports in Georgia in order

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<v Speaker 2>to get them into the continent, moving those forces over

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<v Speaker 2>into northern Azerbaijan, which in this scenario we saw was

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<v Speaker 2>at least passively supportive of US forces, then inviting south

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<v Speaker 2>into the southern part of Isozerbaijan, which we thought would

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<v Speaker 2>be where fighting was, and then invading into the northern

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<v Speaker 2>part of Iran. And the biggest issue with that scenario

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<v Speaker 2>the reason well, first off, the fact that they used

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<v Speaker 2>this a non classified, unclassified training scenario, which again the

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<v Speaker 2>Azerbaijanis were enemies in the scenario, and we had Azerbaijani's students,

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<v Speaker 2>real world sitting in there, which again that tells you

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<v Speaker 2>everything about the level of just competence we have in

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<v Speaker 2>strategic planning in the US military. But the fact that

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<v Speaker 2>this was a declassified scenario tells me that nobody thought

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<v Speaker 2>they were going to use this, or at least it

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<v Speaker 2>was implausible to think they were going to use this.

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<v Speaker 2>But that scenario involved, again those two ports that you

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<v Speaker 2>needed in Georgia in order to get stuff in there.

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<v Speaker 2>Those are the same two ports that Russia took away

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<v Speaker 2>and was it two thousand and nine when they had

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<v Speaker 2>that hasty attack or hasty operation by Russia on Georgia.

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<v Speaker 2>So again, if you don't have the ports, you're not

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<v Speaker 2>getting anything in there.

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<v Speaker 1>Is was that part of the fomenting revolutions in Georgia

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<v Speaker 1>during the two thousands to try to possibly do something

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<v Speaker 1>up for the future, I'd.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think more than likely. I mean that was

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<v Speaker 2>never officially said. During the period, there was a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of military cooperation between the United States and Georgia, mostly

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<v Speaker 2>for training. We had actual assets at those two ports.

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<v Speaker 2>I know that because I had students who were actually

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<v Speaker 2>at those ports doing terminal operations. When the Russians rolled

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<v Speaker 2>into town, which is one of the weirdest things, they

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<v Speaker 2>actually said. They were really nice and polite, the Russian

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<v Speaker 2>commander and said, you guys got to stay on post

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<v Speaker 2>tell us when your supply convoys come in, so we

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<v Speaker 2>can make sure they come through. But you got to

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<v Speaker 2>stay there, and we're okay, is what they told the Americans.

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<v Speaker 1>Is there any possibility of staging in Pakistan?

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<v Speaker 2>That's another thing, right, so could we I can't see

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<v Speaker 2>Pakistan cooperating.

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<v Speaker 3>Part of the problem is.

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<v Speaker 2>Since September eleventh, the US has played a diplomatic game

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<v Speaker 2>of Pakistan against India. And for those who don't know,

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<v Speaker 2>the British Empire, when they partitioned the former India, the

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<v Speaker 2>Muslim parts became India or became Pakistan, the rest became India,

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00:19:26.480 --> 00:19:29.440
<v Speaker 2>and then Pakistan eventually had a split up where Bangladesh

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00:19:29.519 --> 00:19:33.359
<v Speaker 2>became in its independent country. So since September eleventh, we've

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00:19:34.000 --> 00:19:39.759
<v Speaker 2>had a diplomatic game balancing act of playing India against

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<v Speaker 2>Pakistan because those countries engage in armed conflict against each other,

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<v Speaker 2>have fought each other despite the fact they're essentially cousins.

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<v Speaker 2>They fought themselves each other several times, and anytime the

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<v Speaker 2>US cooperates more closely with one country, it alienates the other. Now,

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00:19:56.559 --> 00:20:00.400
<v Speaker 2>all the time that we spent working in Afghanistan forced

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<v Speaker 2>us to cooperate with Pakistan because heavy equipment had to

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<v Speaker 2>come in through ports in Pakistan and then be shipped

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<v Speaker 2>north into Afghanistan. The last few years, the Biden's administration

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<v Speaker 2>has tried to heal the relationship with India, which arguably

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<v Speaker 2>is a good thing. You know, the world's first or

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<v Speaker 2>second most populoust country. There's no reason for US to

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<v Speaker 2>have a pissing contest with them. But unfortunately that goes

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<v Speaker 2>back it damages that relationship with Pakistan again. Could we

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<v Speaker 2>stage there? Maybe I don't see us doing that. It's

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<v Speaker 2>also an interesting bit of geography with the coastal parts

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<v Speaker 2>of Iran are fairly coastal, but within you know, dozens

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<v Speaker 2>of miles, you start having the mountains, you know, rough

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00:20:52.680 --> 00:20:54.920
<v Speaker 2>mountains pop up and you have to cross those mountains

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<v Speaker 2>and you may not have any major targets or population

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00:20:59.480 --> 00:21:03.960
<v Speaker 2>centers until one hundred miles inland. So it's sort of

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<v Speaker 2>like the problems with the amphibious landing. If you invade

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<v Speaker 2>through Pakistan, you end up in a part of the

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<v Speaker 2>country where you still have to get through the other

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00:21:12.359 --> 00:21:14.920
<v Speaker 2>side of the mountains, and it doesn't necessarily help you

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<v Speaker 2>a great deal to come from that direction. So number one,

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<v Speaker 2>I can't imagine that. Number two, even then, it puts

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<v Speaker 2>you in a situation you wouldn't want to be well.

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<v Speaker 1>And then you have the whole eastern side of the country,

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<v Speaker 1>all the way down to the uh to the mid

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<v Speaker 1>central of the country with just a gigantic mountain range.

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<v Speaker 1>So you'd have to deal with the same issue from

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<v Speaker 1>Iraq from Turkey. Even if even if Israel's friend Ourzarbaijean

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<v Speaker 1>was willing to help, you're still dealing with mountains. The

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<v Speaker 1>only way you're going to avoid mountains is to go

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<v Speaker 1>in from Afghanistan. And then you're I mean, what's that

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<v Speaker 1>three thousand miles.

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<v Speaker 3>Which is mountains? Which is.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm sorry, now, I'm sorry, I kind of go which

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<v Speaker 2>number one, pack or Afghanistan is mountains? You know, So

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<v Speaker 2>it's like you're saying you're avoiding them mountains. Yeah, that's relative,

358
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<v Speaker 2>and it's still really bad. And even then the Taliban

359
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<v Speaker 2>is probably not going to give us, you know, support

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<v Speaker 2>for invading Iran.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, So I mean, taking into consideration two years

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<v Speaker 1>prep time and everything, let's just rule everyone out. Obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>Azerbaijean is friends with Israel, what would there be I

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<v Speaker 1>mean that would be probably outside of Turkmenistan, the closest

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<v Speaker 1>uh the closest route to Tehran, and that doesn't seem

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<v Speaker 1>likely either.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and again that's part of the problem is hypothetically

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<v Speaker 2>you could use Azerbaijean, and again the war game scenario

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<v Speaker 2>uses Azerbaijean, so strategic planners were convinced that you could

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<v Speaker 2>do that. So I think that's possibly completely plausible, and

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<v Speaker 2>it puts you near Tehran, you know, decapitating the administration.

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<v Speaker 3>Again.

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<v Speaker 2>In order to get stuff into Azerbaijean heavy equipment, you'd

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<v Speaker 2>still have to go through using the ports of Georgia,

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<v Speaker 2>which I don't think Rush is going to allow us

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<v Speaker 2>to do because again they demonstrate their ability to seize

377
00:23:06.640 --> 00:23:09.400
<v Speaker 2>those in the course of an afternoon. So if you

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<v Speaker 2>don't have those ports, it doesn't necessarily matter that you

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<v Speaker 2>go through Azerbaijan because you still don't have equipment.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, Well, I think the next uh, I guess

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<v Speaker 1>the next thing that you would go towards is very

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<v Speaker 1>long range air campaign. So what was the war gaming

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<v Speaker 1>on that?

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<v Speaker 2>Looking like, yeah, that I've had to do a lot

385
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<v Speaker 2>of research outside as an Army officer. We don't necessarily

386
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<v Speaker 2>care about air war as long as our side wins beforehand,

387
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<v Speaker 2>and if we don't win, we're not going there.

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<v Speaker 1>Decoupled the Army Air Corps.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, there's a reason the Marine Corps ensured that

390
00:23:53.680 --> 00:23:57.799
<v Speaker 2>they retain their own aviation and they originally created the

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<v Speaker 2>US Air Force.

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<v Speaker 3>The plan was also to give all the naval aviation

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<v Speaker 3>assets to them as.

394
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<v Speaker 2>Well, and the Navy fought back on that, and even

395
00:24:07.839 --> 00:24:09.680
<v Speaker 2>before the Navy won their fight, the Marine Corps made

396
00:24:09.720 --> 00:24:11.160
<v Speaker 2>it very clear they were going to keep their own

397
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<v Speaker 2>aviation and.

398
00:24:12.039 --> 00:24:13.680
<v Speaker 3>They did so.

399
00:24:13.799 --> 00:24:19.519
<v Speaker 2>Yet a lot of countries that have successful large countries

400
00:24:19.519 --> 00:24:22.839
<v Speaker 2>that have successful independent air forces, like the former Soviet Union,

401
00:24:23.319 --> 00:24:27.400
<v Speaker 2>actually had multiple services where you'd have a strategic bombing

402
00:24:27.400 --> 00:24:31.319
<v Speaker 2>air force, you'd have a strategic airlift air force, you

403
00:24:31.359 --> 00:24:33.960
<v Speaker 2>had a separate airlift air force just for the paratroopers,

404
00:24:34.400 --> 00:24:36.920
<v Speaker 2>and then you had, you know, an air force that

405
00:24:37.000 --> 00:24:40.160
<v Speaker 2>did close support for the army that would work with

406
00:24:40.200 --> 00:24:43.559
<v Speaker 2>them directly, and the problem is by turning the Air

407
00:24:43.599 --> 00:24:47.119
<v Speaker 2>Force into the headquarters for everything, we've created the problem

408
00:24:47.160 --> 00:24:50.119
<v Speaker 2>where they don't necessarily do closer air support with a

409
00:24:50.119 --> 00:24:56.799
<v Speaker 2>whole lot of effectiveness. As a ground soldier, I have

410
00:24:57.039 --> 00:25:01.160
<v Speaker 2>my hatred of the Air Force reason but they're not

411
00:25:01.200 --> 00:25:05.839
<v Speaker 2>like Marine corp Aviation that does cast very effectively. And

412
00:25:05.880 --> 00:25:08.480
<v Speaker 2>they're still mad that we have helicopters, and you know,

413
00:25:09.039 --> 00:25:12.079
<v Speaker 2>they're really angry that we made them keep the the

414
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<v Speaker 2>AT and war Dog, which they didn't like.

415
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<v Speaker 1>So I thought that that's one of the most badass

416
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<v Speaker 1>looking machines I've ever seen been up close to.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, John Boyd was one of the guys who his

418
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<v Speaker 2>office was responsible for developing what became that, and it

419
00:25:32.640 --> 00:25:36.119
<v Speaker 2>was a purpose built close air support aircraft and it's

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00:25:36.160 --> 00:25:39.440
<v Speaker 2>a great thing piece of equipment. And part of the

421
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<v Speaker 2>problem is nobody in Air Force Acquisitions really supported a

422
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<v Speaker 2>second generation version of that, so they've basically tried to

423
00:25:47.720 --> 00:25:50.720
<v Speaker 2>make it obsolete and retire it. And I don't even

424
00:25:50.720 --> 00:25:52.400
<v Speaker 2>know what the status of it is today. I think

425
00:25:52.400 --> 00:25:56.200
<v Speaker 2>it's been retired, but you know, it's sort of like

426
00:25:56.319 --> 00:25:58.920
<v Speaker 2>they you know, they put their ball home and didn't

427
00:25:59.319 --> 00:26:02.599
<v Speaker 2>want to play with anybody else, and they're really angry

428
00:26:02.599 --> 00:26:06.079
<v Speaker 2>that we made them continue to operate those those planes.

429
00:26:06.640 --> 00:26:12.000
<v Speaker 1>All right, So how what would what would aerial etside,

430
00:26:12.039 --> 00:26:15.000
<v Speaker 1>what what would aerial warfare on Iran look like?

431
00:26:16.400 --> 00:26:18.799
<v Speaker 2>That's a good question and this is probably the biggest

432
00:26:18.960 --> 00:26:23.440
<v Speaker 2>X factor that we don't know about. And uh, part

433
00:26:23.480 --> 00:26:26.680
<v Speaker 2>of the thing is anytime you have big revolutions in

434
00:26:26.759 --> 00:26:33.200
<v Speaker 2>military equipment and military affairs, is you go through a

435
00:26:33.200 --> 00:26:36.319
<v Speaker 2>period of uncertainty about what you think your equipment can do,

436
00:26:36.359 --> 00:26:38.720
<v Speaker 2>what your new weapons and tags can do, and then

437
00:26:38.759 --> 00:26:41.440
<v Speaker 2>you actually see them in combat, and then you know,

438
00:26:41.680 --> 00:26:46.279
<v Speaker 2>everything changes in light of reality. Late nineteenth century, you know,

439
00:26:46.359 --> 00:26:48.599
<v Speaker 2>machine guns, early machine guns like the Maxim gun and

440
00:26:48.599 --> 00:26:53.400
<v Speaker 2>the Gatling gun were developed. The British actually had huge,

441
00:26:53.440 --> 00:26:56.640
<v Speaker 2>made heavy use of machine guns throughout the late nineteenth

442
00:26:56.680 --> 00:26:59.440
<v Speaker 2>early twentieth century, but they mostly used it against tribesmen

443
00:26:59.480 --> 00:27:04.119
<v Speaker 2>in Africa, so Arabs and black tribesmen, and a lot

444
00:27:04.160 --> 00:27:06.039
<v Speaker 2>of times they were using them against people who were

445
00:27:06.119 --> 00:27:10.759
<v Speaker 2>largely using fairly convention mounted or you know, close order

446
00:27:10.839 --> 00:27:15.359
<v Speaker 2>tactics and machine guns against people marching close order is

447
00:27:15.480 --> 00:27:19.680
<v Speaker 2>just a slaughter and it worked probably as much as

448
00:27:19.680 --> 00:27:23.920
<v Speaker 2>anything just to discourage uprisings, but at the same time,

449
00:27:24.000 --> 00:27:25.960
<v Speaker 2>nobody really had an idea of what those were going

450
00:27:26.039 --> 00:27:28.720
<v Speaker 2>to do. In the Western Front when two armies using

451
00:27:28.720 --> 00:27:33.640
<v Speaker 2>those weapons met each other, and again early nineteen fourteen

452
00:27:33.799 --> 00:27:37.400
<v Speaker 2>the Western Front, we had engagements with incredibly high number

453
00:27:37.400 --> 00:27:41.039
<v Speaker 2>of casualties. Then troops dug in. Then there was a

454
00:27:41.160 --> 00:27:42.880
<v Speaker 2>race to the sea in which you had the huge

455
00:27:42.920 --> 00:27:47.920
<v Speaker 2>trench lines going from it was the English Channel all

456
00:27:47.960 --> 00:27:51.680
<v Speaker 2>the way down to Switzerland, and you know, long periods

457
00:27:51.720 --> 00:27:55.319
<v Speaker 2>of trying to break the stalemate of the trenches. And

458
00:27:55.359 --> 00:27:58.759
<v Speaker 2>I think it's very plausibly with changes in aviation and

459
00:27:58.839 --> 00:28:03.359
<v Speaker 2>drones in particular, that seeing something like that in Ukraine,

460
00:28:03.440 --> 00:28:07.079
<v Speaker 2>we've had a lot of incidents, incidences where we know

461
00:28:07.200 --> 00:28:11.880
<v Speaker 2>that American armor and you know, mechanized tanks and UH

462
00:28:12.039 --> 00:28:14.720
<v Speaker 2>infantry fighting vehicles are nowhere near as good as we

463
00:28:14.759 --> 00:28:17.000
<v Speaker 2>thought they were. As soon as you take away air supremacy,

464
00:28:17.079 --> 00:28:20.119
<v Speaker 2>if you take away air cover, you know, tanks and

465
00:28:20.160 --> 00:28:23.200
<v Speaker 2>Bradley's and things like that suddenly become very easy to

466
00:28:23.240 --> 00:28:29.920
<v Speaker 2>destroy or at least disable. And you know, it's also

467
00:28:29.960 --> 00:28:34.400
<v Speaker 2>become very hard to maintain air supremacy because of you know,

468
00:28:34.519 --> 00:28:38.720
<v Speaker 2>man man portable shoulder fire anti aircraft systems, things like

469
00:28:38.759 --> 00:28:43.000
<v Speaker 2>the American Stinger. So we're in a situation where it's

470
00:28:43.039 --> 00:28:46.039
<v Speaker 2>really hard to maintain air supremacy. You can create a

471
00:28:46.079 --> 00:28:50.960
<v Speaker 2>situation where basically everything that flies dies and suddenly that

472
00:28:51.519 --> 00:28:55.880
<v Speaker 2>forces how the ground war changes. So that's part of

473
00:28:56.039 --> 00:28:59.519
<v Speaker 2>the the you know, again, this is all X factor,

474
00:28:59.559 --> 00:29:02.359
<v Speaker 2>and I'm saying that there are changes here that we

475
00:29:02.400 --> 00:29:07.440
<v Speaker 2>don't entirely know yet, and I encourage caution because of that.

476
00:29:08.599 --> 00:29:11.960
<v Speaker 2>So the Iranian Air Force, you know, they started off,

477
00:29:12.119 --> 00:29:15.480
<v Speaker 2>or at least the Islamic Republics started off with you

478
00:29:15.519 --> 00:29:17.960
<v Speaker 2>know stuff the shawst Air Force had. They had F fourteen's,

479
00:29:18.400 --> 00:29:20.920
<v Speaker 2>they had some other American fighters. They didn't have the

480
00:29:20.920 --> 00:29:25.720
<v Speaker 2>first generation of avionics, targeting stuff. A lot of cases,

481
00:29:25.759 --> 00:29:28.880
<v Speaker 2>they never updated their stuff, and they're using third party repairs,

482
00:29:28.880 --> 00:29:32.079
<v Speaker 2>so they don't necessarily have very good you know, targeting

483
00:29:32.400 --> 00:29:38.160
<v Speaker 2>and communications and radar stuff for those weapons systems, which

484
00:29:38.200 --> 00:29:40.480
<v Speaker 2>a lot of their planes are fairly out of date

485
00:29:40.680 --> 00:29:43.599
<v Speaker 2>by now, so it may not matter, but we do

486
00:29:43.720 --> 00:29:46.319
<v Speaker 2>know that they have some amount of anti aircraft stuff,

487
00:29:46.319 --> 00:29:50.119
<v Speaker 2>and the fact that the American pissing contests with both

488
00:29:50.200 --> 00:29:54.200
<v Speaker 2>Russia and China has forced the Bricks to share a

489
00:29:54.240 --> 00:29:57.440
<v Speaker 2>great amount of military technology. We don't know how much,

490
00:29:57.480 --> 00:30:00.519
<v Speaker 2>but there is a level of military cooperation there which

491
00:30:00.519 --> 00:30:04.039
<v Speaker 2>again is unknown, which leaves a lot of room for

492
00:30:04.119 --> 00:30:08.599
<v Speaker 2>potential threat. So what anti aircraft systems have the Russians

493
00:30:08.640 --> 00:30:11.559
<v Speaker 2>provided with them? More importantly, what anti aircraft systems would

494
00:30:11.599 --> 00:30:16.400
<v Speaker 2>the Russians provide for them? And the answer is we

495
00:30:16.480 --> 00:30:21.759
<v Speaker 2>don't know, and all of them could be bad, which

496
00:30:21.839 --> 00:30:25.599
<v Speaker 2>means that there's a very high possibility that they could

497
00:30:25.720 --> 00:30:30.880
<v Speaker 2>kill aircraft that we have that we've never really forecasted losing.

498
00:30:31.440 --> 00:30:33.480
<v Speaker 2>Because again, one of the common themes of the US

499
00:30:33.599 --> 00:30:38.000
<v Speaker 2>military is, yes, we're incredibly powerful, we don't necessarily have

500
00:30:38.039 --> 00:30:43.839
<v Speaker 2>the ability to absorb casualties. The ability to have min

501
00:30:43.960 --> 00:30:49.000
<v Speaker 2>weapons and equipment destroyed, are captured or disabled, and to

502
00:30:49.039 --> 00:30:52.119
<v Speaker 2>continue to fight as you reorganize around your casualties is

503
00:30:53.640 --> 00:30:55.680
<v Speaker 2>a fairly hard thing to do. And you know the

504
00:30:55.680 --> 00:30:59.079
<v Speaker 2>fact that we don't really have to practice doing that,

505
00:31:01.160 --> 00:31:04.720
<v Speaker 2>we may have difficulties working around that. So hypothetically, it's

506
00:31:04.759 --> 00:31:06.640
<v Speaker 2>not just what we lose in aircraft, it's our ability

507
00:31:06.680 --> 00:31:10.480
<v Speaker 2>to continue to function as cohesive units after that. The

508
00:31:10.559 --> 00:31:14.400
<v Speaker 2>other thing is drones. How effective are their drones, how

509
00:31:14.400 --> 00:31:16.720
<v Speaker 2>effective with the drones that Rush or China would provide

510
00:31:16.759 --> 00:31:22.440
<v Speaker 2>them with be and again drones hypothetically use drones to

511
00:31:22.440 --> 00:31:25.599
<v Speaker 2>fight fighter aircraft. It's important to understand you don't need

512
00:31:25.599 --> 00:31:27.799
<v Speaker 2>them to be great dog fighters. You don't even necessarily

513
00:31:27.839 --> 00:31:31.200
<v Speaker 2>need them to be great with missile technology. If you

514
00:31:31.240 --> 00:31:33.920
<v Speaker 2>can with some degree of accuracy fly those things into

515
00:31:33.960 --> 00:31:37.359
<v Speaker 2>your planes using drones is then just you know, run

516
00:31:37.440 --> 00:31:39.519
<v Speaker 2>them into aircraft. You could probably knock down a fair

517
00:31:39.519 --> 00:31:44.359
<v Speaker 2>amount of fighters, and especially the reality is if you're

518
00:31:44.680 --> 00:31:48.240
<v Speaker 2>a drone controller and drone pilot, you're not going to

519
00:31:48.319 --> 00:31:50.799
<v Speaker 2>die when you ram that other enemy aircraft, so you

520
00:31:50.799 --> 00:31:56.839
<v Speaker 2>don't necessarily care. So there's a high degree of possibility

521
00:31:56.960 --> 00:32:02.279
<v Speaker 2>that Iran could inflict casualties on a long range aviation

522
00:32:02.640 --> 00:32:07.240
<v Speaker 2>attack and that those things could really mess up in

523
00:32:07.240 --> 00:32:08.119
<v Speaker 2>attacking force.

524
00:32:09.519 --> 00:32:13.839
<v Speaker 1>So the things that I had heard recently I can't remember.

525
00:32:13.880 --> 00:32:16.880
<v Speaker 1>I think might have been from Larry Johnson that they

526
00:32:16.960 --> 00:32:23.000
<v Speaker 1>definitely had Russian S three hundred systems. The I think

527
00:32:23.480 --> 00:32:26.119
<v Speaker 1>what is their version of the C one thirty is

528
00:32:26.160 --> 00:32:29.640
<v Speaker 1>at the A N twelve cub Is that what he said?

529
00:32:30.480 --> 00:32:31.640
<v Speaker 3>I don't know, it's something like that.

530
00:32:31.720 --> 00:32:36.559
<v Speaker 1>A couple of them landed fully loaded three or four

531
00:32:36.599 --> 00:32:41.200
<v Speaker 1>months ago in Tehran, which probably he thinks had the

532
00:32:41.279 --> 00:32:44.519
<v Speaker 1>S four hundred, and then there's actually talk that there's

533
00:32:44.559 --> 00:32:47.240
<v Speaker 1>actually an S five hundred and S five fifty now

534
00:32:48.039 --> 00:32:53.000
<v Speaker 1>and properly when you take into consideration the mountainous terrain

535
00:32:53.119 --> 00:32:56.880
<v Speaker 1>and everything properly placed. I mean it really it goes

536
00:32:56.960 --> 00:33:02.599
<v Speaker 1>to show why when Israel launched their assault recently, they

537
00:33:02.640 --> 00:33:04.759
<v Speaker 1>really didn't do much damage. I think there was one

538
00:33:04.799 --> 00:33:11.079
<v Speaker 1>civilian died for military personnel, and the damage is being

539
00:33:11.160 --> 00:33:18.119
<v Speaker 1>reported has really been minimal. And I've actually seen footage

540
00:33:18.359 --> 00:33:20.799
<v Speaker 1>of a lot of their a lot of what they launched.

541
00:33:20.799 --> 00:33:22.720
<v Speaker 1>They're just being taken down and taken right out of

542
00:33:22.759 --> 00:33:23.079
<v Speaker 1>the sky.

543
00:33:25.079 --> 00:33:25.799
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

544
00:33:26.799 --> 00:33:29.640
<v Speaker 2>Number one again back to the military cooperation with the

545
00:33:29.680 --> 00:33:34.400
<v Speaker 2>Bricks country. I'm one hundred percent certain it's happening, But

546
00:33:35.000 --> 00:33:36.759
<v Speaker 2>what do we know about those Like you said, there's

547
00:33:36.799 --> 00:33:39.559
<v Speaker 2>a couple of landings where as far as we can tell,

548
00:33:39.720 --> 00:33:44.599
<v Speaker 2>anti aircraft systems we're landing. I'm largely skeptical of anything

549
00:33:44.640 --> 00:33:46.599
<v Speaker 2>that comes out in American media about what the Russian

550
00:33:46.640 --> 00:33:50.160
<v Speaker 2>military is doing, just because everything the American media has

551
00:33:50.160 --> 00:33:53.720
<v Speaker 2>been so inaccurate. I'm sure, I'm one hundred percent certain

552
00:33:53.759 --> 00:33:56.759
<v Speaker 2>that Iran wants Russia to provide those assets. I think

553
00:33:56.759 --> 00:33:59.880
<v Speaker 2>it's more likely than not that Russia has provided those assets,

554
00:34:00.359 --> 00:34:03.119
<v Speaker 2>But which assets, I don't know. It could be a lot,

555
00:34:03.240 --> 00:34:08.920
<v Speaker 2>especially if they have next generation shoulder fire weapons systems.

556
00:34:09.440 --> 00:34:12.920
<v Speaker 2>So yeah, my big caution there would be they probably

557
00:34:12.960 --> 00:34:15.760
<v Speaker 2>have a lot more than we think they have, especially

558
00:34:15.840 --> 00:34:17.800
<v Speaker 2>if they're small enough and they can be dismantled. You

559
00:34:17.840 --> 00:34:21.400
<v Speaker 2>could potentially put them on you know, civilian airliners. You

560
00:34:21.400 --> 00:34:24.239
<v Speaker 2>can even put them on regular passenger planes and break

561
00:34:24.280 --> 00:34:27.599
<v Speaker 2>down the components to ship them in cargo. So things

562
00:34:27.639 --> 00:34:29.639
<v Speaker 2>like that are completely possible. Where they would have a

563
00:34:29.719 --> 00:34:32.840
<v Speaker 2>lot more stuff than we think, not to mention the

564
00:34:32.880 --> 00:34:39.719
<v Speaker 2>potential to move stuff in there directly from Russia. And again,

565
00:34:39.800 --> 00:34:43.000
<v Speaker 2>like you said, the mountains are good for covering concealment,

566
00:34:43.599 --> 00:34:46.400
<v Speaker 2>especially if you don't control anything around those mountains. This

567
00:34:46.519 --> 00:34:49.440
<v Speaker 2>isn't like Afghanistan were for twenty years. Yeah, we didn't

568
00:34:49.480 --> 00:34:51.880
<v Speaker 2>necessarily control the key mountains, but we had some points,

569
00:34:51.920 --> 00:34:54.079
<v Speaker 2>and we had some forces in the area, and we

570
00:34:54.119 --> 00:34:58.679
<v Speaker 2>had some idea of the geography. Iran would be completely

571
00:34:58.679 --> 00:35:04.559
<v Speaker 2>different that circumstance, I wouldn't know. So yeah, it's everything

572
00:35:04.599 --> 00:35:08.039
<v Speaker 2>you said, but to a degree much higher than we

573
00:35:08.079 --> 00:35:11.519
<v Speaker 2>would anticipate, meaning you're right, and it's probably a lot

574
00:35:11.519 --> 00:35:12.360
<v Speaker 2>worse than you think.

575
00:35:13.880 --> 00:35:18.920
<v Speaker 1>And then not to mention the fact that their missile technology,

576
00:35:19.599 --> 00:35:22.840
<v Speaker 1>which we don't really know a lot about, but we've

577
00:35:22.880 --> 00:35:27.800
<v Speaker 1>seen the Huthis launch missiles at Israel that have been

578
00:35:27.840 --> 00:35:32.360
<v Speaker 1>reported to turn ninety degrees in mid air.

579
00:35:33.679 --> 00:35:34.119
<v Speaker 3>So we.

580
00:35:35.960 --> 00:35:42.000
<v Speaker 1>What exactly do we know about Iranian technology and what

581
00:35:42.039 --> 00:35:43.280
<v Speaker 1>they can do to fight back?

582
00:35:44.840 --> 00:35:45.599
<v Speaker 3>That's a good question.

583
00:35:45.679 --> 00:35:50.840
<v Speaker 2>I haven't seen anything declassified on that, excuse me, So

584
00:35:51.039 --> 00:35:55.199
<v Speaker 2>I've seen very little or nothing declassified on that. So

585
00:35:55.239 --> 00:35:57.519
<v Speaker 2>what do we know? We definitely know they can do

586
00:35:57.840 --> 00:36:02.360
<v Speaker 2>long range target thing with some degree of precision. The

587
00:36:02.400 --> 00:36:06.199
<v Speaker 2>fact that you know they drop stuff that was it

588
00:36:06.280 --> 00:36:10.960
<v Speaker 2>the the Iraqi airfield that that we had an American

589
00:36:10.960 --> 00:36:13.079
<v Speaker 2>personnel that time.

590
00:36:12.440 --> 00:36:15.000
<v Speaker 1>I think right after Sole Money.

591
00:36:15.079 --> 00:36:17.440
<v Speaker 2>I was on that base, So I feel bad that

592
00:36:17.480 --> 00:36:18.840
<v Speaker 2>I don't remember on the top of my head, because

593
00:36:18.840 --> 00:36:21.679
<v Speaker 2>I was stationed at that base at one point. So

594
00:36:22.559 --> 00:36:25.239
<v Speaker 2>all indications are if they did they missed on purpose

595
00:36:25.280 --> 00:36:28.760
<v Speaker 2>where they were demonstrating their ability to target, and they

596
00:36:28.800 --> 00:36:33.119
<v Speaker 2>didn't miss, and they intentionally shot a warning shot demonstrating

597
00:36:33.159 --> 00:36:36.440
<v Speaker 2>that they could shoot things, or they just.

598
00:36:36.320 --> 00:36:40.239
<v Speaker 1>Like the most recent saving face for the for the attack.

599
00:36:40.519 --> 00:36:41.840
<v Speaker 3>I think it's exactly what they did.

600
00:36:42.159 --> 00:36:44.280
<v Speaker 2>They were demonstrating to all sides that they could do

601
00:36:44.400 --> 00:36:46.440
<v Speaker 2>this and that they would do this if they had to,

602
00:36:46.920 --> 00:36:50.360
<v Speaker 2>but that they didn't want to escalate further. That's my understanding,

603
00:36:50.400 --> 00:36:54.239
<v Speaker 2>my interpretation. So it's more than just saving face. They're

604
00:36:54.239 --> 00:36:58.239
<v Speaker 2>demonstrating to America that they could do this, but they're

605
00:36:58.280 --> 00:37:00.840
<v Speaker 2>choosing not to, which is a you know, a very

606
00:37:00.880 --> 00:37:07.760
<v Speaker 2>different level of restraint that Americans are used to. The

607
00:37:07.800 --> 00:37:13.480
<v Speaker 2>thought is that those massive attacks by Iran against Israel,

608
00:37:13.519 --> 00:37:16.400
<v Speaker 2>those large missile attacks, that they were probably used as

609
00:37:16.440 --> 00:37:18.000
<v Speaker 2>a reconnaissance and force.

610
00:37:19.400 --> 00:37:19.880
<v Speaker 3>Number one.

611
00:37:19.920 --> 00:37:21.800
<v Speaker 2>There seems to be a fairly high dug rate on

612
00:37:21.840 --> 00:37:25.239
<v Speaker 2>the Iranian missiles, which suggests that they were using old

613
00:37:25.239 --> 00:37:28.440
<v Speaker 2>stocks a munitions stuff that they had to get rid

614
00:37:28.480 --> 00:37:31.320
<v Speaker 2>of anyway that they were firing, and they were targeting

615
00:37:31.360 --> 00:37:35.239
<v Speaker 2>them in such a way that they could observe Israeli

616
00:37:36.400 --> 00:37:40.079
<v Speaker 2>missile defense in order to get their tactics down, in

617
00:37:40.159 --> 00:37:44.000
<v Speaker 2>order to find the launch points, in order to build

618
00:37:44.320 --> 00:37:48.840
<v Speaker 2>data for future attacks which I think is highly likely.

619
00:37:49.119 --> 00:37:52.679
<v Speaker 2>It's also the kind of complexity that Iranians are known for,

620
00:37:52.880 --> 00:37:58.559
<v Speaker 2>so they have that kind of targeting capacity, and they

621
00:37:58.559 --> 00:38:01.840
<v Speaker 2>probably have it to a much greater degree of precision

622
00:38:02.519 --> 00:38:09.440
<v Speaker 2>than anything in the US military. Long range precision missile

623
00:38:09.519 --> 00:38:12.199
<v Speaker 2>artillery is not something the US military is very good at.

624
00:38:13.519 --> 00:38:16.239
<v Speaker 1>So let's let's talk a little bit about that. So

625
00:38:16.480 --> 00:38:18.920
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people look at Iran as like this

626
00:38:19.000 --> 00:38:23.159
<v Speaker 1>backwards country, these backwards people, their women still have to

627
00:38:23.159 --> 00:38:27.039
<v Speaker 1>wear head coverings and things like that, and they just

628
00:38:27.119 --> 00:38:29.719
<v Speaker 1>basically assume that they don't have they don't have any

629
00:38:29.760 --> 00:38:33.440
<v Speaker 1>scientists there. Anything that they would be using, they would

630
00:38:33.480 --> 00:38:36.639
<v Speaker 1>be it were being supplied from somewhere else, like Russia

631
00:38:36.679 --> 00:38:39.039
<v Speaker 1>and everything like that. So what do you know about

632
00:38:39.199 --> 00:38:42.199
<v Speaker 1>their their capabilities as far as their.

633
00:38:44.320 --> 00:38:49.639
<v Speaker 2>The culture and technology was. Yeah, well, the country historically

634
00:38:49.679 --> 00:38:53.639
<v Speaker 2>was called Persia. Then the last Shaw's father, so the

635
00:38:53.679 --> 00:38:57.159
<v Speaker 2>second last Shaw, when he took charge, renamed it as Iran.

636
00:38:57.280 --> 00:39:01.719
<v Speaker 2>Haran literally means the land of the Arians, and like

637
00:39:01.800 --> 00:39:04.599
<v Speaker 2>a lot of well, it wasn't a colonial society, but

638
00:39:04.679 --> 00:39:09.119
<v Speaker 2>a lot of societies going through decolonization. There's the whole

639
00:39:09.159 --> 00:39:11.440
<v Speaker 2>fight about whether or not the culture should represent the

640
00:39:11.480 --> 00:39:14.960
<v Speaker 2>dominant ethnic group or multiple ethnic groups, and by naming Iran,

641
00:39:15.480 --> 00:39:17.960
<v Speaker 2>it was essentially saying it's not just for Persians, it's

642
00:39:17.960 --> 00:39:20.679
<v Speaker 2>for all the other minority people who who are there

643
00:39:20.719 --> 00:39:24.199
<v Speaker 2>as well. Just as in aside, ethnic Persians only make

644
00:39:24.280 --> 00:39:27.840
<v Speaker 2>up about sixty percent of the Iranian population. You've got

645
00:39:27.840 --> 00:39:31.320
<v Speaker 2>some Arabs, We've got Kurds, You've got a Luki's, You've

646
00:39:31.320 --> 00:39:35.880
<v Speaker 2>got lots of people of very different, various relations apparently,

647
00:39:36.360 --> 00:39:41.039
<v Speaker 2>you know, it's it's a diverse country. There was a

648
00:39:41.079 --> 00:39:44.880
<v Speaker 2>great deal of a great amount of modernization that occurred

649
00:39:44.960 --> 00:39:48.800
<v Speaker 2>under the Polavi dynasty. Education was brought in, you know, famously,

650
00:39:48.840 --> 00:39:52.960
<v Speaker 2>we've all seen, you know, the photos from the fifties

651
00:39:52.960 --> 00:39:58.800
<v Speaker 2>and sixties of women in many skirts in Iran. Iran

652
00:39:59.079 --> 00:40:01.599
<v Speaker 2>or Persians especial, but also Kurds and some of the

653
00:40:01.679 --> 00:40:05.039
<v Speaker 2>other ethnic groups are a little unusual in the fact

654
00:40:05.079 --> 00:40:09.599
<v Speaker 2>that they're simultaneously they have a reputation for being both

655
00:40:09.679 --> 00:40:13.760
<v Speaker 2>very religious in the practice of shiaid Islam, will you know,

656
00:40:13.880 --> 00:40:17.840
<v Speaker 2>being very worldly, and how they lived their life, which

657
00:40:19.119 --> 00:40:21.960
<v Speaker 2>it's really hard to compare them to something maybe like

658
00:40:22.000 --> 00:40:24.719
<v Speaker 2>old school Italian Americans, who are you know, very Catholic,

659
00:40:24.760 --> 00:40:27.519
<v Speaker 2>but that's never stopped and stood in the way of

660
00:40:27.559 --> 00:40:30.920
<v Speaker 2>them being able to deal with reality in places the

661
00:40:30.960 --> 00:40:33.840
<v Speaker 2>priests may not like. You know, I don't mean that

662
00:40:33.840 --> 00:40:39.039
<v Speaker 2>as an assault. The Catholics are Italians, so they had

663
00:40:39.480 --> 00:40:45.079
<v Speaker 2>a fairly modern education system that was trying to modernize

664
00:40:45.159 --> 00:40:52.679
<v Speaker 2>the culture. They had modern universities that which were established

665
00:40:52.719 --> 00:40:57.320
<v Speaker 2>with Western support, mostly British, some American. A lot of

666
00:40:57.320 --> 00:41:01.320
<v Speaker 2>them do a lot of English languae education because again

667
00:41:01.400 --> 00:41:03.639
<v Speaker 2>STEM training is only done in so many languages in

668
00:41:03.639 --> 00:41:06.320
<v Speaker 2>the world, and English is one of them. So lots

669
00:41:06.320 --> 00:41:08.880
<v Speaker 2>of you know, what we'd call third world countries, the

670
00:41:08.920 --> 00:41:12.559
<v Speaker 2>actually educated people speak fluent English because that's what they

671
00:41:12.599 --> 00:41:15.199
<v Speaker 2>need to do in order to do a STEM education

672
00:41:15.280 --> 00:41:20.840
<v Speaker 2>to go become an engineer or whatnot. There was after

673
00:41:20.880 --> 00:41:23.280
<v Speaker 2>the Iranian Revolution, there was a you know, there was

674
00:41:23.320 --> 00:41:25.360
<v Speaker 2>a big purging in the beginning where many of the

675
00:41:25.360 --> 00:41:30.239
<v Speaker 2>Shaws loyalist loyalists were removed, but that didn't necessarily damage

676
00:41:30.280 --> 00:41:34.199
<v Speaker 2>the educated or yeah, it didn't necessarily remove the educated

677
00:41:35.360 --> 00:41:40.440
<v Speaker 2>factor in society because the revolution, the Iranian Revolution wasn't

678
00:41:40.480 --> 00:41:43.159
<v Speaker 2>even really an Islamist revolution in the beginning, so much

679
00:41:43.199 --> 00:41:46.880
<v Speaker 2>as there was an anti Shaw Revolution amongst people who

680
00:41:46.880 --> 00:41:51.440
<v Speaker 2>were Shites, and you know, became a site revolution because

681
00:41:51.480 --> 00:41:54.239
<v Speaker 2>Comania was the only guy who could unite the factions,

682
00:41:54.920 --> 00:41:58.119
<v Speaker 2>so a lot of their educated people weren't taken out.

683
00:41:58.119 --> 00:41:59.960
<v Speaker 2>Like I said, students were a huge part of the revolution.

684
00:42:00.719 --> 00:42:03.000
<v Speaker 2>So you have lots of you know, lots of people

685
00:42:03.000 --> 00:42:07.480
<v Speaker 2>with higher education, some guys with PhDs and whatnot, but

686
00:42:07.519 --> 00:42:11.559
<v Speaker 2>a lot of people stem education. So my point here

687
00:42:11.719 --> 00:42:16.079
<v Speaker 2>is these are not monkeys living in caves. These are

688
00:42:16.719 --> 00:42:21.000
<v Speaker 2>people that a large strateg or society is very educated.

689
00:42:22.559 --> 00:42:26.360
<v Speaker 2>A large part of contemporary ron is urban, either urban

690
00:42:26.480 --> 00:42:30.599
<v Speaker 2>or they live in you know, a greater metropolis metropolitan area,

691
00:42:30.639 --> 00:42:33.320
<v Speaker 2>meaning they live in essentially what would be suburbs or

692
00:42:33.320 --> 00:42:36.199
<v Speaker 2>even rural areas there you know, within a half day

693
00:42:36.280 --> 00:42:41.199
<v Speaker 2>drive of a major city. So these are not you know,

694
00:42:41.360 --> 00:42:43.719
<v Speaker 2>bumpkins in the middle of nowhere. Even in the places

695
00:42:43.719 --> 00:42:45.239
<v Speaker 2>where they may be in the middle of nowhere, they

696
00:42:45.239 --> 00:42:46.320
<v Speaker 2>have a fair amount.

697
00:42:46.079 --> 00:42:47.639
<v Speaker 3>Of ability to travel.

698
00:42:47.840 --> 00:42:50.639
<v Speaker 2>The fact that the country has oil means they have

699
00:42:51.239 --> 00:42:54.480
<v Speaker 2>a fair amount of electricity and power of different sources,

700
00:42:54.519 --> 00:42:59.559
<v Speaker 2>which means you can have computers. Anecdotally, I could know

701
00:42:59.679 --> 00:43:02.440
<v Speaker 2>when I I was purchasing things as a purchasing agent

702
00:43:02.480 --> 00:43:06.000
<v Speaker 2>for the Iraqi Army. We imported a lot of our

703
00:43:06.000 --> 00:43:08.840
<v Speaker 2>goods from Iran, so I can tell you for a fact,

704
00:43:08.880 --> 00:43:10.000
<v Speaker 2>computers are easy to.

705
00:43:09.920 --> 00:43:10.880
<v Speaker 3>Come by in Iran.

706
00:43:11.880 --> 00:43:14.960
<v Speaker 2>Even though we had embargoes against Iran, we bought stuff

707
00:43:14.960 --> 00:43:18.880
<v Speaker 2>from Iran. The fact that they're working closer with Russia

708
00:43:18.960 --> 00:43:20.440
<v Speaker 2>means that there's lots of things they can get down

709
00:43:20.440 --> 00:43:23.599
<v Speaker 2>they couldn't get in the past. So it's this idea

710
00:43:23.639 --> 00:43:26.599
<v Speaker 2>that they're living in the caves like the Taliban were

711
00:43:27.079 --> 00:43:29.679
<v Speaker 2>in two thousand and one is not in any way

712
00:43:29.719 --> 00:43:31.360
<v Speaker 2>accurate about Iran.

713
00:43:33.119 --> 00:43:37.239
<v Speaker 1>What about their manufacturing of weapons specifically? You know what

714
00:43:37.559 --> 00:43:41.000
<v Speaker 1>Wock talks about where if you're if you have to

715
00:43:41.000 --> 00:43:44.119
<v Speaker 1>import your own weapons, if you have to if you

716
00:43:44.119 --> 00:43:47.320
<v Speaker 1>have to rely upon someone else, you're basically you become

717
00:43:47.360 --> 00:43:50.440
<v Speaker 1>a slave to them. Do you know what their manufacturing

718
00:43:50.519 --> 00:43:51.000
<v Speaker 1>level is?

719
00:43:52.760 --> 00:43:54.800
<v Speaker 2>That's a good question, and I only know a little bit,

720
00:43:54.800 --> 00:43:57.199
<v Speaker 2>and I should have prepared better for that. I know

721
00:43:57.239 --> 00:44:00.119
<v Speaker 2>they can manufacture small arms. I know that akas have

722
00:44:00.159 --> 00:44:06.280
<v Speaker 2>been made there before. I know munitions have been manufactured

723
00:44:06.400 --> 00:44:10.360
<v Speaker 2>in various degrees there. I assume that's a fairly easy

724
00:44:10.400 --> 00:44:14.360
<v Speaker 2>part of their industry. Since if you don't necessarily have currency,

725
00:44:16.599 --> 00:44:20.000
<v Speaker 2>don't have hard currency that you know, manufacturing munitions is

726
00:44:20.039 --> 00:44:23.760
<v Speaker 2>a really quick way to make money towards a more

727
00:44:23.760 --> 00:44:30.960
<v Speaker 2>expensive country or more economically developed countries around you. I

728
00:44:31.000 --> 00:44:34.519
<v Speaker 2>don't know about their ability to produce like aviation assets,

729
00:44:34.800 --> 00:44:39.760
<v Speaker 2>or hire and armor equipment, or missile systems and whatnot,

730
00:44:39.920 --> 00:44:44.199
<v Speaker 2>so that I m also not necessarily I wouldn't necessarily

731
00:44:44.239 --> 00:44:46.239
<v Speaker 2>be worried about that if I were them, just because

732
00:44:46.280 --> 00:44:49.320
<v Speaker 2>an alliance with Russia means you can get those things.

733
00:44:50.840 --> 00:44:53.519
<v Speaker 2>You also potentially have the ability to trade things for

734
00:44:53.679 --> 00:44:57.920
<v Speaker 2>them that they are going to find valuable. So that

735
00:44:58.039 --> 00:44:58.800
<v Speaker 2>answers your question.

736
00:44:59.199 --> 00:45:03.679
<v Speaker 1>Well, So, taking into considerate consideration the spirit of my question,

737
00:45:04.320 --> 00:45:07.599
<v Speaker 1>if they are relying on Russia for so much, how

738
00:45:08.880 --> 00:45:12.199
<v Speaker 1>how much of a swayed does Russia hold on them?

739
00:45:12.320 --> 00:45:15.280
<v Speaker 1>In your opinion, that's.

740
00:45:15.119 --> 00:45:15.760
<v Speaker 3>A good question.

741
00:45:17.239 --> 00:45:19.880
<v Speaker 2>I think Russia could exercise a great deal of sway

742
00:45:19.920 --> 00:45:27.280
<v Speaker 2>over them if they wanted to, I know, well, especially

743
00:45:27.280 --> 00:45:30.400
<v Speaker 2>if they're providing anti aircraft system So the short answer

744
00:45:30.480 --> 00:45:35.440
<v Speaker 2>is probably a lot. Russia has not directly forced a

745
00:45:35.480 --> 00:45:38.920
<v Speaker 2>whole lot of things other than trying to see greater

746
00:45:39.000 --> 00:45:45.280
<v Speaker 2>alliances with those countries against the United States and setting

747
00:45:45.320 --> 00:45:48.840
<v Speaker 2>up you know, mutual trade systems, you know, such as

748
00:45:49.000 --> 00:45:54.480
<v Speaker 2>you know, getting outside the American banking credit system. My

749
00:45:54.559 --> 00:45:56.679
<v Speaker 2>guess is they probably have a lot of sway over them,

750
00:45:56.760 --> 00:45:59.440
<v Speaker 2>since you know, Russia was completely locked out of Western

751
00:45:59.480 --> 00:46:03.000
<v Speaker 2>markets and they've worked with other countries to create alternative systems,

752
00:46:03.079 --> 00:46:06.159
<v Speaker 2>and Iran has been locked out for it was a

753
00:46:06.159 --> 00:46:09.400
<v Speaker 2>decade plus now, so they have every reason to cooperate.

754
00:46:09.440 --> 00:46:13.559
<v Speaker 2>So I imagine there's probably a lot more influence than

755
00:46:13.840 --> 00:46:19.599
<v Speaker 2>we've seen so far. It's also a situation where Putin,

756
00:46:19.679 --> 00:46:21.400
<v Speaker 2>for all of his talk of him as being an

757
00:46:21.440 --> 00:46:24.440
<v Speaker 2>overbearing dictator, and I don't necessarily have any love loss

758
00:46:24.480 --> 00:46:28.760
<v Speaker 2>for him, but he's he has demonstrated the ability to

759
00:46:28.840 --> 00:46:32.280
<v Speaker 2>be to exercise sort of a soft touch with people

760
00:46:32.280 --> 00:46:38.480
<v Speaker 2>that he's influencing, meaning that he'll more request and cooperate

761
00:46:38.559 --> 00:46:43.159
<v Speaker 2>for things than trying to force compliance on things, which

762
00:46:43.199 --> 00:46:46.079
<v Speaker 2>ironically is sort of the American way of doing diplomacy,

763
00:46:46.119 --> 00:46:46.840
<v Speaker 2>despite the fact.

764
00:46:46.719 --> 00:46:47.519
<v Speaker 3>We say otherwise.

765
00:46:47.599 --> 00:46:52.119
<v Speaker 2>So I think Russia could probably exercise a great deal

766
00:46:52.159 --> 00:46:55.400
<v Speaker 2>of influence and probably has more influence than we've seen

767
00:46:55.480 --> 00:46:55.880
<v Speaker 2>so far.

768
00:46:57.840 --> 00:47:01.079
<v Speaker 1>When you say that, it's pretty easy to understand that

769
00:47:01.159 --> 00:47:08.920
<v Speaker 1>if Ukraine wasn't so captured and under NATO and other influences,

770
00:47:09.559 --> 00:47:12.639
<v Speaker 1>how he would have a soft touch with them, How

771
00:47:12.679 --> 00:47:16.519
<v Speaker 1>he would he'd have no problem with diplomacy. And it

772
00:47:16.639 --> 00:47:19.800
<v Speaker 1>looks like, you know, in two thousand and nine diploma,

773
00:47:19.960 --> 00:47:23.559
<v Speaker 1>diplomacy has gone really well with them until obviously the coup.

774
00:47:25.119 --> 00:47:28.039
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and my position on the Ukraine War is I

775
00:47:28.039 --> 00:47:30.880
<v Speaker 2>don't take either side there. I know lots of guys

776
00:47:30.960 --> 00:47:33.679
<v Speaker 2>on our or in our sphere like to take Russia

777
00:47:33.639 --> 00:47:36.559
<v Speaker 2>aside by default. I don't do that. And I actually

778
00:47:36.599 --> 00:47:40.679
<v Speaker 2>have an immense amount of admiration for Ukrainians. I do

779
00:47:40.760 --> 00:47:44.280
<v Speaker 2>think that by cooperating with the West, they're doing things

780
00:47:44.280 --> 00:47:47.400
<v Speaker 2>that are detrimental to them in the long run. I

781
00:47:47.440 --> 00:47:51.280
<v Speaker 2>think the war in Ukraine is an unfortunate consequence of

782
00:47:51.320 --> 00:47:57.440
<v Speaker 2>American overbearing behavior, which is forced the dichotomy between Russia

783
00:47:57.440 --> 00:47:59.960
<v Speaker 2>and Ukraine and which people which killed a lot of

784
00:48:00.039 --> 00:48:07.679
<v Speaker 2>people we claimed to care about. So, Yeah, the Slavic

785
00:48:07.719 --> 00:48:11.079
<v Speaker 2>parts of the former Soviet Union and before that the

786
00:48:11.159 --> 00:48:16.960
<v Speaker 2>Russian Empire have an interesting history. It's like history historically,

787
00:48:17.199 --> 00:48:19.920
<v Speaker 2>the the ethnic Russian people of the Rowski people, as

788
00:48:19.960 --> 00:48:23.119
<v Speaker 2>opposed to just the people who were citizens of Russia. Traditionally,

789
00:48:23.199 --> 00:48:25.880
<v Speaker 2>they referred to themselves as greater Russians, with the idea

790
00:48:25.920 --> 00:48:29.639
<v Speaker 2>that the Ukrainians and bel Russians were you know, you know,

791
00:48:29.719 --> 00:48:34.639
<v Speaker 2>other varieties of Russian cousins. So, yeah, there's a huge

792
00:48:34.679 --> 00:48:38.239
<v Speaker 2>amount of connection there, which you know, the fall of

793
00:48:38.239 --> 00:48:42.000
<v Speaker 2>the Soviet Union in post World War two or yeah,

794
00:48:42.440 --> 00:48:47.840
<v Speaker 2>post Cold War geopolitics is you know, created a cleavage

795
00:48:47.840 --> 00:48:51.920
<v Speaker 2>between those related peoples that the probably wouldn't have existed otherwise.

796
00:48:52.400 --> 00:48:54.760
<v Speaker 2>And again, I do not deny the existence of the

797
00:48:54.880 --> 00:48:59.039
<v Speaker 2>Ukrainian people like some do, but I also think the

798
00:48:59.079 --> 00:49:02.599
<v Speaker 2>fact that America's claim to support Ukrainians has killed a

799
00:49:02.639 --> 00:49:04.440
<v Speaker 2>lot of Ukrainians.

800
00:49:05.159 --> 00:49:09.920
<v Speaker 1>All right, Well, it seems that Israel, you know what,

801
00:49:11.199 --> 00:49:16.000
<v Speaker 1>Iran has been there. They're one month away from having

802
00:49:16.039 --> 00:49:19.360
<v Speaker 1>a nuke for what thirty thirty five years now, and

803
00:49:19.960 --> 00:49:20.519
<v Speaker 1>they want.

804
00:49:20.320 --> 00:49:23.559
<v Speaker 2>To Scott Warton has said they've been like six months

805
00:49:23.599 --> 00:49:24.719
<v Speaker 2>away for twelve years now.

806
00:49:24.880 --> 00:49:32.840
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so all of this belikosity towards them, it relies

807
00:49:32.920 --> 00:49:36.559
<v Speaker 1>upon the United States getting involved. And then you're saying

808
00:49:36.840 --> 00:49:39.880
<v Speaker 1>that this would be it would take two years to

809
00:49:40.079 --> 00:49:46.800
<v Speaker 1>even get this prepared for an invasion, and then the invasion.

810
00:49:46.599 --> 00:49:47.039
<v Speaker 3>So it's.

811
00:49:48.559 --> 00:49:55.159
<v Speaker 1>Conservatively, So what is does Israel really in your opinion,

812
00:49:55.239 --> 00:49:57.400
<v Speaker 1>does Israel really think that this is going to happen,

813
00:49:57.480 --> 00:49:59.280
<v Speaker 1>that they can they can do this, or is there

814
00:49:59.320 --> 00:50:00.599
<v Speaker 1>something else going going on here?

815
00:50:02.840 --> 00:50:04.039
<v Speaker 3>I'm timped to think there's something.

816
00:50:04.280 --> 00:50:06.960
<v Speaker 2>I think a lot of this has to do with

817
00:50:07.079 --> 00:50:11.519
<v Speaker 2>men Yahoo essentially flailing in order to stay in power.

818
00:50:11.559 --> 00:50:14.920
<v Speaker 2>I think he's behaving like a cornered animal. Because when

819
00:50:14.920 --> 00:50:17.920
<v Speaker 2>this war ends, even in the besket the excuse me,

820
00:50:18.000 --> 00:50:23.159
<v Speaker 2>the fighting in Israel ends, more than likely net Nyah,

821
00:50:23.159 --> 00:50:24.760
<v Speaker 2>who's going to be indicted and they're probably going to

822
00:50:24.760 --> 00:50:27.719
<v Speaker 2>put him in prison this time, and because of his age,

823
00:50:27.719 --> 00:50:30.800
<v Speaker 2>he'll probably die in prison. And I think even if

824
00:50:30.840 --> 00:50:34.920
<v Speaker 2>it ends on very good terms, that's extremely likely to happen.

825
00:50:36.880 --> 00:50:40.880
<v Speaker 2>So again, I think Nennyah who's behaving like a cornered animal,

826
00:50:41.440 --> 00:50:45.920
<v Speaker 2>and a lot of it's driven by his behavior. I

827
00:50:46.000 --> 00:50:49.400
<v Speaker 2>doubt that anybody in the IDF thinks that a land war,

828
00:50:49.480 --> 00:50:53.719
<v Speaker 2>a land invasion, conquest of Iran is possible at all.

829
00:50:54.880 --> 00:50:57.599
<v Speaker 2>You know, maybe in two thousand and two, before we

830
00:50:57.679 --> 00:51:00.199
<v Speaker 2>invaded Iraq, we thought that that could happen, and we

831
00:51:00.239 --> 00:51:08.000
<v Speaker 2>were just move US forces into Iran. But reality proved otherwise. Obviously,

832
00:51:08.119 --> 00:51:10.639
<v Speaker 2>Israel wouldn't go send its own forces. They have a

833
00:51:10.639 --> 00:51:13.039
<v Speaker 2>hard time getting their the reservists to go and fight

834
00:51:13.079 --> 00:51:15.119
<v Speaker 2>in the West Bank and the gods the Strip, They're

835
00:51:15.159 --> 00:51:18.880
<v Speaker 2>definitely not going to go fight in Iran. I don't

836
00:51:18.920 --> 00:51:22.280
<v Speaker 2>think the United States will ever have the ability to

837
00:51:22.360 --> 00:51:26.000
<v Speaker 2>wage that kind of offensive war ever. Again, I don't

838
00:51:26.039 --> 00:51:29.360
<v Speaker 2>see people sending their sons away, especially in a world

839
00:51:29.360 --> 00:51:32.400
<v Speaker 2>where people only have one child. So it's not just

840
00:51:32.519 --> 00:51:35.760
<v Speaker 2>the population growth issue. It's the fact that you know,

841
00:51:35.800 --> 00:51:38.440
<v Speaker 2>most parents today only have one or two children, and

842
00:51:38.480 --> 00:51:42.880
<v Speaker 2>you're not trying to, you know, kill your child, your

843
00:51:42.920 --> 00:51:45.199
<v Speaker 2>only son, and your neighbor's only son in order to

844
00:51:45.559 --> 00:51:48.719
<v Speaker 2>you know, piss shit away. For people who aren't willing

845
00:51:48.719 --> 00:51:51.880
<v Speaker 2>to fight for themselves and have to create conflict with

846
00:51:51.960 --> 00:51:55.280
<v Speaker 2>everybody in their world, what do.

847
00:51:55.239 --> 00:51:56.119
<v Speaker 3>They really want?

848
00:51:56.360 --> 00:51:58.400
<v Speaker 2>I think a lot of this is about buying time,

849
00:51:58.480 --> 00:52:06.159
<v Speaker 2>and I think that I think that people under existential threat,

850
00:52:07.039 --> 00:52:10.000
<v Speaker 2>which you know then yahoo and the potential of going

851
00:52:10.039 --> 00:52:12.519
<v Speaker 2>to prison, I don't think they behave rationally, and I

852
00:52:12.519 --> 00:52:13.599
<v Speaker 2>think that explains a lot.

853
00:52:15.239 --> 00:52:22.679
<v Speaker 1>So with Trump now picking his cabinet, and he's definitely

854
00:52:22.800 --> 00:52:25.440
<v Speaker 1>the few picks that you know, we were even talking

855
00:52:25.480 --> 00:52:32.079
<v Speaker 1>about before we started recording. Aren't good because just just

856
00:52:32.119 --> 00:52:35.679
<v Speaker 1>because it seems like they're they're all friendly to Israel,

857
00:52:36.440 --> 00:52:41.840
<v Speaker 1>the three or four so far right now as of recording. Yeah,

858
00:52:41.880 --> 00:52:45.679
<v Speaker 1>but this still doesn't really what people When you hear

859
00:52:45.719 --> 00:52:49.280
<v Speaker 1>people complaining about this, you hear them complaining about it

860
00:52:49.320 --> 00:52:52.000
<v Speaker 1>because we don't want to go to war with their Ran.

861
00:52:52.960 --> 00:52:54.840
<v Speaker 1>So what I'm trying. What I'm trying to do, but

862
00:52:54.920 --> 00:53:00.119
<v Speaker 1>I have this conversation with you, is showing people that

863
00:53:00.119 --> 00:53:03.920
<v Speaker 1>that's not that's not the issue. That's completely off the table.

864
00:53:04.519 --> 00:53:11.119
<v Speaker 1>Everyone knows it. And you know, other than somebody starting

865
00:53:11.119 --> 00:53:16.840
<v Speaker 1>to launch nukes, we need to shift our still pay

866
00:53:16.880 --> 00:53:20.960
<v Speaker 1>attention to what's going on with this insane alliance we

867
00:53:21.039 --> 00:53:23.400
<v Speaker 1>have with this little shitty state in the Middle East.

868
00:53:24.519 --> 00:53:26.559
<v Speaker 1>But this isn't going to be about it Ran.

869
00:53:28.840 --> 00:53:32.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, well, I would say a bit more than anything,

870
00:53:32.320 --> 00:53:35.360
<v Speaker 2>it's important that the politicians who represent us. And again,

871
00:53:35.400 --> 00:53:38.880
<v Speaker 2>democracy is bullshit and we know it doesn't really work.

872
00:53:39.000 --> 00:53:41.920
<v Speaker 2>But the fact that Trump just got in power on

873
00:53:42.000 --> 00:53:45.719
<v Speaker 2>the you know, because of popular support, is at least

874
00:53:45.760 --> 00:53:49.599
<v Speaker 2>open to understanding what his base cares about, and we

875
00:53:49.719 --> 00:53:52.760
<v Speaker 2>have to make it understand that Trump understand that you

876
00:53:52.800 --> 00:53:56.239
<v Speaker 2>can't do this, the war with Iran can't happen. And

877
00:53:57.960 --> 00:54:00.559
<v Speaker 2>a lot again I prepped with Bill Buper from Chasing

878
00:54:00.599 --> 00:54:02.280
<v Speaker 2>Ghosts podcasts for a lot of this, and one of

879
00:54:02.280 --> 00:54:11.480
<v Speaker 2>the conversations we had this morning was the American military

880
00:54:11.559 --> 00:54:15.039
<v Speaker 2>right now is essentially divided between two world views. A

881
00:54:15.039 --> 00:54:18.599
<v Speaker 2>lot of what the Obama and Biden era did was

882
00:54:18.719 --> 00:54:24.199
<v Speaker 2>essentially put woke officers, you know, everybody's favorite pet subjugated

883
00:54:24.199 --> 00:54:28.920
<v Speaker 2>groups into the military and higher levels as a sort

884
00:54:28.960 --> 00:54:31.760
<v Speaker 2>of purge of the officer cord, the general officer cord

885
00:54:31.800 --> 00:54:36.559
<v Speaker 2>of the army to make it less right wing. And unfortunately,

886
00:54:36.599 --> 00:54:39.519
<v Speaker 2>so much of the counter reaction against that in the

887
00:54:39.519 --> 00:54:42.519
<v Speaker 2>military and America's supporters just think, no, we're America and

888
00:54:42.559 --> 00:54:45.519
<v Speaker 2>we can go fight the world. So the response to woke,

889
00:54:45.599 --> 00:54:47.880
<v Speaker 2>unfortunately a lot of times, is saying, let's go and invade,

890
00:54:48.400 --> 00:54:53.360
<v Speaker 2>you know, let's start World War three. And part of

891
00:54:53.400 --> 00:54:56.599
<v Speaker 2>what I'm trying to fight is, you know, people released

892
00:54:56.599 --> 00:54:59.800
<v Speaker 2>culturally on our side, trying to get them to understand

893
00:55:00.239 --> 00:55:06.519
<v Speaker 2>that war with Iran will be existentially devastating to America.

894
00:55:07.039 --> 00:55:10.440
<v Speaker 2>You know, from Apple Atrial, Greater Appalachia from the south.

895
00:55:10.760 --> 00:55:12.800
<v Speaker 2>You know, people like me die in these wars. I

896
00:55:12.840 --> 00:55:16.559
<v Speaker 2>don't want people like me to die, so especially so

897
00:55:16.679 --> 00:55:20.199
<v Speaker 2>certain classes and cultures of people who hate us can

898
00:55:20.239 --> 00:55:23.400
<v Speaker 2>go in a rural world rule the ashes of the

899
00:55:23.440 --> 00:55:27.559
<v Speaker 2>world after we've you know, blend and died for them.

900
00:55:28.880 --> 00:55:31.320
<v Speaker 2>I also want to make sure that people on our side,

901
00:55:31.719 --> 00:55:34.880
<v Speaker 2>everybody on our side, understands that war isn't free, right.

902
00:55:34.960 --> 00:55:38.280
<v Speaker 2>People die, And everybody said, yeah, of course not. It's like, no,

903
00:55:38.400 --> 00:55:41.480
<v Speaker 2>America hasn't fought a real world against a real enemy

904
00:55:41.880 --> 00:55:43.920
<v Speaker 2>in a very long time. And I remind people, even

905
00:55:44.000 --> 00:55:47.000
<v Speaker 2>during World War Two, you know, something like eighty percent

906
00:55:47.039 --> 00:55:50.639
<v Speaker 2>of the wehrmachs cow'shuildings were inflicted by the Soviet army.

907
00:55:51.000 --> 00:55:53.960
<v Speaker 2>You know, the reality is the United States provided a

908
00:55:54.000 --> 00:55:56.239
<v Speaker 2>lot of logistics and then open it up the second

909
00:55:56.519 --> 00:55:59.119
<v Speaker 2>front to play Kate Stalin in the course of a

910
00:55:59.199 --> 00:56:02.639
<v Speaker 2>world war that we meet the world safe for Stalinism.

911
00:56:03.360 --> 00:56:07.199
<v Speaker 2>So world War two we were kind of like we're

912
00:56:07.280 --> 00:56:11.239
<v Speaker 2>sort of like the kick return team of World War two, right,

913
00:56:11.360 --> 00:56:13.920
<v Speaker 2>I mean, of the Allies we fought, but we were

914
00:56:13.920 --> 00:56:16.800
<v Speaker 2>not quite the front line starting lineup, and.

915
00:56:17.000 --> 00:56:18.320
<v Speaker 1>It wasn't like the Pacific theater.

916
00:56:19.960 --> 00:56:23.400
<v Speaker 2>It wasn't like the Pacific theater. And I'm not degrading

917
00:56:23.440 --> 00:56:27.360
<v Speaker 2>anybody's contribution and their sacrifice. And the dead are equally dead,

918
00:56:27.400 --> 00:56:30.159
<v Speaker 2>no matter where they fought and against who they fought.

919
00:56:30.199 --> 00:56:34.960
<v Speaker 2>But understand that World War two, the Western Front, European Front,

920
00:56:35.039 --> 00:56:37.760
<v Speaker 2>we did not fight the war that we seem to

921
00:56:37.760 --> 00:56:41.239
<v Speaker 2>think we fought. And unfortunately, war with Iran could mean

922
00:56:41.280 --> 00:56:45.119
<v Speaker 2>that it could be against an army that is entrenched,

923
00:56:45.440 --> 00:56:47.679
<v Speaker 2>which has a fair amount of support. And despite the

924
00:56:47.679 --> 00:56:50.719
<v Speaker 2>fact that people say that they hate the Islamist regime

925
00:56:50.800 --> 00:56:54.519
<v Speaker 2>in Iran, invading their country will change that immediately. You know,

926
00:56:54.639 --> 00:56:57.960
<v Speaker 2>when gang banners come into your neighborhood suddenly your next

927
00:56:57.960 --> 00:57:01.039
<v Speaker 2>door neighbor, you may not like to cooperate within the

928
00:57:01.079 --> 00:57:05.719
<v Speaker 2>fight the intruders, and we could create that situation. And

929
00:57:06.000 --> 00:57:11.280
<v Speaker 2>my biggest fear is Iran is some dipshit trying to

930
00:57:11.360 --> 00:57:14.159
<v Speaker 2>do things invading because they don't know any better, which

931
00:57:14.159 --> 00:57:17.079
<v Speaker 2>is a real fear I had with Kamala getting in there.

932
00:57:17.079 --> 00:57:19.920
<v Speaker 2>And as soon as our forces get bogged down, we're

933
00:57:19.960 --> 00:57:22.920
<v Speaker 2>bogged down in sort of like an Eastern Front scenario

934
00:57:22.920 --> 00:57:24.760
<v Speaker 2>in World War Two, where we're slugging it out for

935
00:57:24.800 --> 00:57:27.400
<v Speaker 2>an extended period, except now we're doing that in the

936
00:57:27.440 --> 00:57:30.360
<v Speaker 2>war in the world where there are nuclear weapons on

937
00:57:30.400 --> 00:57:35.559
<v Speaker 2>the table. So again, when I'm rambling here to everybody saying, look,

938
00:57:35.599 --> 00:57:39.679
<v Speaker 2>war with Iran without any better, Sorry for my profanity,

939
00:57:39.800 --> 00:57:42.280
<v Speaker 2>but it's fucking stupid and people like me and you

940
00:57:42.320 --> 00:57:44.079
<v Speaker 2>are going to die, and they're going to die for

941
00:57:44.119 --> 00:57:48.800
<v Speaker 2>the people we hate. So let's not do that. And

942
00:57:49.159 --> 00:57:51.159
<v Speaker 2>that's what I'm trying to say to everybody. And I

943
00:57:51.159 --> 00:57:52.480
<v Speaker 2>apologize for my profanity.

944
00:57:52.719 --> 00:57:55.480
<v Speaker 1>No, not a problem at all. No, let's end. You're

945
00:57:55.519 --> 00:57:57.760
<v Speaker 1>right there, man, I really appreciate it. Thank you, thank

946
00:57:57.800 --> 00:58:01.760
<v Speaker 1>you for some expertise to this, and let's do it

947
00:58:01.760 --> 00:58:02.440
<v Speaker 1>again real soon.

948
00:58:03.880 --> 00:58:04.079
<v Speaker 3>Cool.

949
00:58:04.320 --> 00:58:04.760
<v Speaker 1>Thanks man,