Speaker 1: There we go.
Speaker 2: Okay, welcome in to the opening line report Kelly Stewart
Here on.
Speaker 1: This beautiful Monday morning.
Speaker 2: We saw a little bit of time before the NFL
kicks off, but Teddy Covers as always, is going to
bring us a look into what we need to be
betting here early in the week. Teddy, let's talk some
divisions today. I'm very excited to go over this entire breakdown.
As I mentioned, we have a little bit of time
before the NFL starts. I think Thursday, a little less
than ten days. But I want to know who you're
betting for each and every division. I want to hear
your breakdowns. I want to hear some long shots. I've
got my list ready to go. So I hope all
of you hanging out with us there at home, live
on all the various wager talk channels and of course
your social media outlets. Teddy, let's get right into it.
Let's talk AFC East.
Speaker 3: Sure, and so, first of all, Kel, I mean I
focus on win totals. Part two of my NFL season
win total report will come out on Wednesday. If you
haven't gotten the report already, it's still available, and frankly,
the lines.
Speaker 4: Are still available.
Speaker 3: There are years where the stuff that I put out
the markets move. This year has not been one of
those using and I think get everything within ten or
fifteen cents of where I put it out. So there's
five plays released already, including a big ticket. I will
be adding to that report this Wednesday. So if you
want to get on board with the season win report
again one to three and fifty two Lifetime, seventeen and
four lifetime with the big tickets we won again last year,
check it out on my own pagewt dot buzz, backslash TC,
or just visit waderotalk dot com. So we've kind of
done the win total stuff. We talked about that over
the summer. We went through we were doing two divisions
a week, and we went through wintals. So for today,
we're going to talk about divisions and division on and
there's lots of divisions where I'm not betting anything.
Speaker 4: I wouldn't think about betting anything.
Speaker 3: That being said, this is an opportunity for us to
do a little preview. Now we'll talk four teams at
a time, go through all eight divisions, and then next
Monday it'll be a more traditional opening line report than
one that we have every week.
Speaker 4: We'll break down all the games four week one and
talk about where the markets are moving.
Speaker 3: So today's show we should have time at the end
to answer questions if you've got questions throwing with the
jet and obviously if you're watching this on replay, you
know what I do. I get in the comments every week,
you know, a couple of times, so feel free to
ask questions below. We appreciate those comments and of course
the likes very very much.
Speaker 2: Yeah, my comments are already populating over here. Thanks Tyrone,
I appreciate it. I got very lucky to cash that
under in Dublin. All junks aside, Teddy, let's get into
this AFC. So you mentioned some of these divisions you
won't be touching at all.
Speaker 1: I don't think this has to be one of them.
This is the bills or bus and minus three thirty there.
Speaker 2: It looks like our producers using DraftKings odds this morning.
Speaker 1: That's step.
Speaker 3: If you shop around, you know you're not gonna find
much better than that, you know, I mean, the bills
are three to one favorites against everybody everywhere, and they
are spots where they're even higher than that.
Speaker 4: You know, when we.
Speaker 3: Look at you know, and the recent division history, twenty twenty,
the Bills go thirteen and three to win the division
twenty twenty one, eleven and six, and win the division
twenty twenty two, thirteen and three, and win the division
twenty twenty three, eleven and six, and win the division
twenty twenty four thirteen and four and win the division.
And again before that, the Patriots won what I think
eleven years in a row, fourteen out of fifteen or
sixteen out of seventeen, whatever it was. So it's not
been a division where there's been a lot of ups
and downs. There's been one dominant team, and Buffalo is
clearly the dominant team. And we look at the strength
of schedule for the Bills this year, you know, the
AFC East teams face AFC North and NFC South opponents.
The NFC South, in my opinion, is by far the
weakest division in football. The three extra games for Buffalo,
and again, the three extra games matter a.
Speaker 4: Lot when we talk about divisions.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna talk about a team after team, but Casey,
Houston and Philly, which is certainly tough compared to what
we're looking at for the rest of the teams. You know,
for Miami, you've got the Chargers, the Commanders, and the Colts.
Speaker 4: For New England and New England's the team.
Speaker 3: Has gotten a lot of hype this offseason, maybe more
than they deserved, but you know, they have this one
of the easiest schedules in the league based on this
year's win total.
Speaker 4: Their three extra games.
Speaker 3: The Raiders, the Titans, the Giants, so that's at least
some of the love. For New England and of course
the Jets, that's a really an interesting story, you know.
I mean, they went five and twelve last year, seven
to ten the year before. They're aligned as a bottom
feeder again this year, but each of the last two
years they've been ligned as a playoff caliber, playoff contending team.
The offense hasn't worked all that well in the preseason,
but we look at their three extra games, Dallas, Denver, Jacksonville.
That's for a last place team, you know, all three
of those teams. I don't know how good Dallas gonna
be talking about them, but Jacksonville should be better. Denver
could be elite this year. I mean, we'll talk about
the Broncos later on in this preview as well. So
from a scheduling standpoint, you know Buffalo has it tougher.
But from a talent standpoint, look, the Bills are super
Bowl contenders, are super Bowl worthy barring injury. Barring injury debacle,
Buffalo should be in the mix in January. If I'm
going to take a long shot, look, I think the
markets are a little bit.
Speaker 4: Higher on New England than I am coming into the season.
Speaker 3: I understand that the Patriots are better than they've been,
but this team for getting it back to five hundred
for New England, it's a positive side and five hundred
in this division. So if you ask me, which of
the two teams has more which the other teams has
more upside?
Speaker 4: From a plus price.
Speaker 3: Perspective, if I'm taking a shot at anyone against Buffalo,
I'll look at the Dolphins or the Jets in this division,
and I'm not really ready to look at either one.
I think the Bills are deserving favorites, and of all
the eight divisions, Buffalo is the single biggest favorite amongst
the eight divisions, deservedly so. Built of the right schedule,
and that team is absolutely loaded. No reason to think
that Buffalo won't be competing for home field advantage and
the number one seed in the AFC when January rules around.
Speaker 2: Let's move along to the AFC North. Take a pick
at their odds here, because I think the team that
is going to give Buffalo a run for their money,
of course, is those Baltimore Ravens, but they're not near
as big of a favorite here. Teddy minus one seventy
to win the AFC North, Bengals right behind him plus
two to ninety. Before we opt on the show this morning,
I was telling Brett, I said, man, Joe Burrow and
the Bengals getting a lot of love, I'm not so sure.
I'm buying the hype Pittsburgh Steelers and Aaron Rodgers plus
four seventy five. And then boy oh boy, the Cleveland
Brown's getting lots of publicity, but for not the right reasons.
Speaker 1: Forty to one.
Speaker 2: The odds are minus one seventy plus two ninety plus
forty to one like that is just incredibly awful break
down the AFC North.
Speaker 3: For me, Teddy, I'll book it at forty one to
one if you want, you know, not to say that.
So when we talk about the AFC East.
Speaker 4: There's one dominant team and.
Speaker 3: Three clearly lesser teams in the AFC North. Yeah, Baltimore
is really good from a personnel standpoort from a powerting standpoint,
I mean, the Ravens are certainly within a point of
the Bills, as we see looking at the opening weekends lines.
You know that these two teams are power rated in
a very pomperable range. But when we talk about the
rest of the division, Pittsburgh's all right, you know, Cincinnati's
all right. So at least two of the other three
teams in the AFC North have the potential to make
noise this season, whereas the markets are staying in the
AFC East perhaps not so much. So that's why you're
seeing the price for Buffalo to win the division much
higher than the price for Baltimore to win the division,
even though again, powerting wise, the teams are fairly comparable.
I think you're saying who's most likely to get best
the chiefs in the AFC, Those two teams would be
one and two, you know, Buffalo and Baltimore. Although there's
some other interesting choices that could come alive this year,
but certainly when we're talking about going into the season,
it's Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore not necessarily in that order
right there, group together. So when we look at the schedule,
and again I'm talking about the three extra games for
these squad that matters, you know, three extra games for Baltimore.
They got Casey, Houston and the Rams. And frankly, all
three of those teams were first place teams last year.
I think all three of them are a little bit
weaker potentially, I don't know, testions might be all right,
we'll talk about Houston in a few minutes. So we
compare that, let's say to what we're seeing for the Bengals,
and the Bengals three extra games, Jacksonville, Denver, Arizona.
Speaker 4: I happen to like all three of those squads. And
you know, Cincinnati.
Speaker 3: You talked about the concern that Joe Burrow is as
good a quarterback as there isn't the league, and his
receiving corps is elite. The running game looks like the
I mean, the offsive line is fine. The running game
is fine. There's certainly an offense in Cincinnati that's gonna
create some headlines this year. The questions where they can
stop anyone, you know, and in the preseason and answer
that question particularly well, they're playing a lot of vanilla coverages,
a lot of soft coverages. We'll see what it looks
like in September as opposed to August. I'm not willing
to write off Cincinnati just because they looked as poorly
as they did defensively in the preseason. But certainly the
Bengals on that side of the football have a lot
more questions than that Baltimore does.
Speaker 4: Coming in the campaign.
Speaker 3: Then you look at what you know Cleveland, I mean,
what are you gonna do with Cleveland? You know, it's
Joe Flacco's an interesting choice, all right.
Speaker 4: Flacco is obviously no future with Flacco.
Speaker 3: There's one benefit to Joe Flacco, but it's a detriment
as well. Joe Flacco will take shots, he chucks it
up and lets his receivers make plays. And when you
have a receiving corps that's making plays, Joe Flacco can
get you to the playoffs.
Speaker 4: When you're receiving corps that's getting beaten in one.
Speaker 3: On one coverage and the opposing defensive batcher making plays,
all of a sudden, Joe Flacco after a month will
have a you know, three touchdown to eleven in or ratio,
the Bengals of Owen or the Browns will be ohing
four and we'll be talking about who you know a
who the next coach is going to be, and be
who Stefanski.
Speaker 4: Is gonna run the rest of the season with behind center.
Speaker 3: But by the way, the three extra games for Cleveland,
the Raiders, the Niners, the Titans again, all of whom
are supposed to be better this year than they were
last year. And then there's Pittsburgh, you know who. Every
year we talk about how this is going to be
the year that Tomlin goes under five hundred, and then
Tomlin finds a way to get them in the mix.
They're three extras, the Chargers, the Colts and the Seahawks
not the toughest of tough and they got the Jets,
the Patch, the Browns the first five games this season,
they got Seattle at home and Minnie in London. Don't
be surprised at Pittsburgh is the team that gets off
to the hottest start in this division, and that could
again we talk about as the season progresses, a hot
start from Pittsburgh could offer value on Baltimore to win
the division.
Speaker 4: A month or six weeks into the season.
Speaker 2: All right, let's move along too well, one of the
least lackluster divisions.
Speaker 1: Both South divisions are just awful.
Speaker 2: But we'll talk about the AFC South here first, because
they're not as bad as Teddy.
Speaker 1: Here's kind of the real thing I've been looking at.
Speaker 2: Do we see certain teams take a step forward or
do we see certain teams take a step back? I'd
like to think with one of the better coaches in
Shane Steike and the Indianapolis Colts take a step forward,
we can get the odds on the screen here. I
will break that down for you. I'm sorry, we're going
AFC South. This says NFC South. Don't mind those odds
on the bottom, the perks of doing a live show.
But we've got the Colts and we've got the Texans,
and those are the only two teams I think have
the opportunity to win the AFC South.
Speaker 1: Teddy, what say you?
Speaker 4: Yeah? I mean just AFC South.
Speaker 3: I've seen the Texans basically even money the Jaguars and
the Colts in the plus three dollars plus three fifty
range in Tennessee a long shot seven or eight to one,
depending on where you price it. Of course, for all
of these division odds, there are there's variants from book
to book. You're not seeing anyone painted any number. Each
book is going to take their own action. They're going
to set their own numbers on this particular marketplace. So
it's worth shopping around. It's worth shopping, you know. And
you say, oh, I out extra ten cents, an extra
twenty cents, especially when you talk about locking up your
money all season for the division winner. Take advantage of
the best offer available. Not well, that's where I have
my money in now and this time of the year again,
this is when the books are offering all the bonuses,
et cetera, et cetera. It's a great time to open
new accounts. And my advice to everyone out there, any
book that's legal in your state should be open and
funded all right, period, any book, all books that are
legal in your state, and that gives you variants, and
it gives you free variants. You're not buying half points,
you're not buying stuff. So that's my opinion. All I
can do is hocker you my advice in that regard.
But certainly it's not an elite division. We got this
so Houston is a team I like Houston. I'll just
put a plane and simple. You know, there were a
lot of concerns about their officsive line this off season.
No one could understand what they were doing on the
opfsitive line. Mcaryans had a plan and the lost of
the line at least on paper, and from what I've seen,
looks just.
Speaker 4: Fine for the Texans, maybe even good. So there's potential
for Houston up front and defensively.
Speaker 3: This team's elite, obviously, they've been there in recent years.
Speaker 4: They have a quarterback who we like in Stroud.
Speaker 3: If I'm making a bet here, it'd be the Texans,
and I'm a Texans belief. I'll put it that maybe
Texans to win the division at even money is something
that they Again it's not a great bet, but it's
something worth considering their three extra games Tampa, Baltimore, Buffalo.
Speaker 4: Ouch.
Speaker 3: You know that's as tough and that certainly affects me
when it comes to Houston's season win total. But I'm
gonna pull you back in here, Kelly for a minute,
because you said something very interesting and I wasn't sure
if you were just as one of those things where
you're just trying to introduce a game. What on earth
makes you think that Shane Stiken has any idea what
he's doing. You called him a good coach, a great coach.
You said something that positive about Shane Stikeen, and I'm
very curious about that.
Speaker 1: So I'm a Shane Stiken believer.
Speaker 2: I think that what we've seen from him as a
coordinator might not necessarily be translating as a head coach.
And I will also say I was very high on
Anthony Richardson coming out of the University of Florida and
getting hurt in that first game, and well, let's just
be honest, he's never really recovered. Now we're gonna see
what Daniel Jones is made of. I think it's gonna
be really interesting. I do think that Houston probably win
this division. I think Houston's a better team on paper.
I think that they probably are more well rounded. But
I do think that if the Colts can get the
running game going this year instead of just hobbling around
on one legged quarterbacks and injured running backs, then maybe,
just maybe they can improve this season. Again, it's not
a tough division. I'm not high on the Jags, and
as you mentioned, the poor Titans are.
Speaker 1: They've got a long road ahead, Sure they do.
Speaker 4: So that's a reasonable case. Shay Segon's got.
Speaker 3: To show me something, and he's got to show me something.
I've seen very little to like about this team in
rex years, and very little like about them this preseason.
Speaker 4: And obviously Jones is now the guy.
Speaker 3: And if you're talking about winning now, you know, being
a five hundred team now, Jones is probably the QB
that you want.
Speaker 4: They are three.
Speaker 3: Extra games Miami, Pittsburgh and Atlanta in Bertolan, So I
mean there's upside and downside for ad They're not a
team that but if I'd have bet one of the two,
I bet downside before upside.
Speaker 4: The Jags are a team of some upside, you know.
Speaker 3: I think the Cohen and according to everything fall apart
for Jacksonville last year, and they found a way to
lose close games week after there were one play away,
a stop away, a first down away, the fourth down
conversion away, week after week after week. And that's the
kind of thing that you don't necessarily expect to translate
one year to the next. Terror Lawrence the quarterback who
I thought would be better in the NFL, and he
hasn't been. And now he's got the offensive coordinator Guru
as his head coach.
Speaker 4: He's got weapons.
Speaker 3: I think the Jags have more receiving weapons they've had
at any point in Lawrence's era. You know, we'll see
how Travis Hunter plays out in that regard. Certainly, the
three extra games Carolina, Cincinnati and the Jets. You know,
compare that with Houston and you understand why there's some
love for Jacksonville.
Speaker 4: Certainly the over mark plays.
Speaker 3: And that again, if I'm taking someone that's not Houston
win the division, it would ProAb to be Jacksonville and Tennessee.
Speaker 4: I mean, you said it.
Speaker 3: You know, there's it's a complete rebuild. It's a rookie quarterback.
The Titans are going to go through some growing pains,
maybe a lot of growing pains. They're three extra games
New England, Cleveland and New Orleans. Although the Browns and
the Saints both late season games, if you're playing crappy teams,
you'd rather play them early, you know, because you know
they're crappy. Boy the late season, maybe something weird happens.
But going into the season, Cleveland and New Orleans are
ranked thirty one and thirty two in my power rating.
So that's one advantage perhaps for a Tennessee team that
you know that still looks pretty rough.
Speaker 2: All right, guys, I see some questions populating in the chat.
Andy Lang with a funny comment using a high draft
pick on a quarterback with limited experience and bad accuracy?
Speaker 1: How can anybody have predicted that would go wrong?
Speaker 2: All jokes aside, Andy Lang will be up next Wager
Talk today, Teddy. Before we get into the AFC West,
I had a quick question for you, because you've mentioned
it a couple of times, about what we've seen in preseason.
Speaker 1: So I'm a.
Speaker 2: Novice sports better, I watch preseason, I formulate opinions about teams, players,
and so forth. Should I do like the men in
Black thing and just forget all about what we saw
in preseason?
Speaker 1: This is kind of where I tend to think people
like to overreact. How about that?
Speaker 4: Sure?
Speaker 3: And the answer is a little bit from colin a
a little bit from columb All right, So you don't
want to so forth like, Yeah, Cincinnati's defense, for example,
all right, look terrible. They were just playing bas coverages.
It's a first install of a new defense. Since he
wasn't trying to disguise coverages. They weren't blitzing. It wasn't
Cincinnati's defense. There's a difference to that versus a team.
Let's say, like, I don't know New Orleans that couldn't
do anything, you know, where everything you thought about the
Saints and you watch him on the field, you're like, wow,
you know it's a new head coach and a new
quarterback and they really are going to go through some
serious growing pains. You know what we saw from Tennessee
this preseason where all right, hey, maybe the Titans isn't no, no,
it's still tight.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 3: So you balance your opinions about the teams with what
you're reading about how the coaches are approaching the games.
Speaker 4: And the answer is yeah, sort of maybe.
Speaker 3: You know, you pay attention to some but you don't
want to overreact. That being said, you don't want to
underreact to some stuff either. So it's a crappy answer.
Speaker 4: Kel. The answer is, you know the.
Speaker 2: Answer I wanted. You should never overreact to too much, right.
I say that after throwing an absolute temper tantrum on.
Speaker 1: Saturday, But that is what it is.
Speaker 2: You got to just let it out and at whatever
capacity that is, and you say, Okay, now, let's step
back and look at actually what we saw and how
much of it actually matters.
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 3: What was that you who was brawling with Avery Johnson's dead?
I get it this born, I saw it in the video.
Speaker 2: Oh boy, oh boy, I was not criticizing his son.
Of all of the criticisms I was throwing around on Saturday,
Avery Johnson received zero ounce of criticism from me. Hopefully
we'll be seeing him in the NFL one day and
Teddy and I can be talking about him on this show.
All right, guys, we're gonna get into the AFC West.
As you guys can tell, there's a Broncos. No, there's not,
this case eight helmet behind me. I have to swap
that out for the NFL shows. Broncos helmet behind me normally,
because I grew up as a Broncos fan, and the
Broncos were always pretty good, and then they weren't for
a long stretch of time, and I'm hoping they're on
an up hill swing.
Speaker 1: Here.
Speaker 2: Teddy plus two fifty to win the AFC West, Chargers
right behind plus three fifty and the Raiders twenty two
to one. The reason why I didn't mention in the
Kansas City Chiefs is because they won this division for
what feels like a better part of the last decade.
And Patrick Mahomes has been great for the Chiefs. Andy
Reid has been great for the Chiefs. Didn't matter how
many receivers they did or did not have. Somehow this
team wins games, they get into the playoffs, and they
are dominant and found their way back to a super
Bowl again last year. Talk to me about why the
Chiefs seem very cheap to win the AFC West.
Speaker 3: They're cheap because their their division rivals are good.
Speaker 4: All right.
Speaker 3: Denver's good, all right, Denver's really good. Denver has like
Super Bowl upside good. All right, The Chargers are good.
They might be really good. They might have Super Bowl
upside type of good. I'm a believer in Denver in particular,
but La as well. And of course the Chiefs have
Super Bowl loser. They have we played all these extra
games for five straight years being elite, and now you
know they are salary cap concerns for Kansas City. You
know that roster is not as deep as it's been
in recent years. You know, they kept their studs, but
if they go through a wave of injuries like they've
had last year and then the year before.
Speaker 4: Both there could be some squit.
Speaker 3: Concerns for GA against Kansas City, and obviously schedule wise,
the Chiefs are up against it. But you know, I
like this Broncos team a lot. And again, what am
I looking for? I'm looking for a defense, all right?
Everyone else offense? Look at this guy, look at that
guy who's playing defense. And Denver's defense. The depth is there.
They showed, we showed it all preseason. How good the
depths of that defense is. We've seen Peyton coach winners
and developed winners before. There's a lot to like about
the Broncos. They're three extra games Cincinnati.
Speaker 4: Green Bay, and the Jets.
Speaker 3: They get the Giants, Jets, Colts, Titans first seven weeks.
They have a chance to get off to a really
hot start. Tough closeout though, case at Washington, at Vegas,
Green Bay, Jacksonville at CAC and the Chargers. So Denver
might be a team that gets hot early, comes back
to earth late, or if they're able to beat those
teams late, I might be talking about a legitimate big
game contender.
Speaker 4: For the AFC Western Division.
Speaker 3: They face the AFC North and NFC East, not the
two toughest divisions in football. Three extra games for Kansas City, Baltimore, Detroit, Buffalo, Ouch,
you know, and they got the Chargers, Eagles, Ravens, Lions
all in the first six weeks, then Washington Buffalo before
the week ten by Kansas City's up against the schedule.
Speaker 4: Wise, if they.
Speaker 3: Decline, they're not as good early, if they're not as hungry,
if they're worn down, they could be in a they
could be in a spot by midseason. That being said,
Andy Reid's Team's gone over to the win total what
every year forever? I mean literally every year going back
to Philadelphia. Andy Reid has been a machine when it
comes the two win totals.
Speaker 4: The Raiders have certainly up their town. I think their
floor is much higher than it's been. Their ceiling isn't
that high. But I don't think the Raiders are bottom feeders.
This year.
Speaker 3: They face three extras New England, Chicago, Cleveland, and turned
about winnable home games you know, Tennessee, Al, Dallas, Cleveland,
the Giants. There hasn't been much of a home field
edge for the Raiders. They are only two and six
at home last year. Their opponents always fill up at
the stadium as much as the Raiders do, but they
do have a fair few winnable home games. And you know,
Harbor is another guy who has been proven that we
want our money on this coach out against them. I
like the physical style for the Charger. I do worry
about some of the injuries they suffered in August. They're
three extras Miami, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, pretty tough but not unreasonable,
and a really tough closeout for La Philly at Kansas City,
at Dallas, Houston and Denver in their last five games.
But all there are the toughest opponents come at home,
and they have a fairly easy start to the season.
Speaker 4: The Chargers might be a team.
Speaker 3: We're talking about a lot at the midway point, and
the Chargers and Broncos. Again, if I'm making one bet here,
it'd be Denver to win the division. The price is right,
but I bet against Andy Reid is in. Patrick Mahomes
has not been exactly a winning price position.
Speaker 2: No, it is not, Teddy. It has not been fun,
except for that Eagle Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: That was kind of fun.
Speaker 2: All right, Let's get in to the NFC We're gonna
start off with the NFC East. If you guys have
a question for Teddy, please drop it in the chat
and we will get to your NFC questions. If you
miss the AFC, you're gonna have to drop it in
there and he's gonna respond to you guys later.
Speaker 1: The NFC East is going to be very interesting, Teddy.
Speaker 2: We've got the Philadelphia Eagles short favorite minus one forty
using draft Kings odds. Of course, always shop around the
Commanders plus two twenty Cowboys plus six fifty Giants eighteen
to one, Teddy. A lot of people think the Eagles
are gonna make another Super Bowl run this year. But
before they're gonna do that, I think they've got to
do pretty well here in the NFC East.
Speaker 4: Sure, I mean, let's start with dall.
Speaker 3: I got these in alphabetical orders, so I mean, Dallas,
we have a new head coach, We have your typical offseason, Turmol.
You have a team that's still missing their best defensive player.
You have an off line that's not as good as
it was. You have an aging quarterback coming off injury.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I got my concerns about the Cowboys or not.
Speaker 3: And look there's there's a potential for upside for Dallas,
but I'm not buying it. Three extra games for Dallas, Carolina,
Arizona and the Jets fairly easy in that regard.
Speaker 4: That being said, that's a show.
Speaker 3: Meet team the Giants showed at So the Giants, our team,
we want to tap the brakes on for what they
did in the preseason. Look great in the preseason. Of course,
you're gonna look great in the preseason. You have a
rookie quarterback who played well against second and third string
defense in Jackson Dart and then you have veterans behind
him and Jameis Winston and Tommy DeVito, and bang, you're
putting up thirty plus every game, which is nice. In
August September, it's one quarterback and you're not playing against
third and.
Speaker 4: Fourth string defenders, and things change in a hurry.
Speaker 3: And of course, you know, based on this year's win total,
the Giants of the single tough schedule in the league,
three extra games New Orleans, San fran New England.
Speaker 4: Two of those three supposed to be much better. This year.
Speaker 3: NFC East teams faced AFC West and NFC North, which
are both you know, in my opinion, elite divisions. You know,
AFC West NFC North could be the you know, the
two best divisions in football. And that's who the AFC
East teams face. So not gonna be easy for the
g men to turn their long term failures.
Speaker 4: Into a in a success this year schedule wise.
Speaker 3: Philadelphia, I mean, certainly on paper, the Eagles look as
close to being as good or as good as they
were last year. Last year they stayed healthy, all their
key guys stayed healthy, especially down the stretch. They have
one of the toughest schedules in the league because you know,
the Rams, the Bills, the Bucks are their three extras.
As for Washington and the Commanders are really an interesting team.
Last year they faced the weakest schedule in the league.
Jame Daniels is a stut all right, and when you
have a study and they made all win now moves,
and you have a veteran head coach and Dan Quinn
who has certainly shown they didn't get his teams to overachieve.
Speaker 4: But there so there's a lot to like. Go Washington
one of those.
Speaker 3: Teams that you're finding really different opinions on as you talk.
Speaker 4: To different people. The people that really like the Commanders.
Speaker 3: The vetting markets haven't and there's a lot to do
with last year's schedule versus this year's schedule, the three
extra games Atlanta, Seattle, and Miami, and of course depth
something of concern for the Commanders.
Speaker 4: They made a ton of win now moves, bringing in
a lot of veterans.
Speaker 3: Veterans sometimes get banged up early, and that could be
a problem for a team with high expectations. But you know, Washington,
I've heard people tell me they're a Super Bowl contender.
I've heard people tell me they're the last place team.
I've got an opinion on the Commanders. They're in part
one of my season win Total Report that's already out.
Speaker 2: Teddy people are just joining us. Can you let them
know what to expect from that season?
Speaker 1: Win total? Obviously, win total report, excuse me.
Speaker 2: Obviously you've been doing it for a very, very long
time and had a ton of success in doing stuff.
Speaker 3: So they started as a lark two thousand and one,
you know, I'm like, yeah, let's go. Let's you know,
I was betting them, and I'm like, well, let's just
release them, you know, and see what happens. And I
put out six plays and I went six and zero.
All right, I'm a market yeah, bingo. And that's really
I mean, that's how it started. In two thousand and two,
two I started started taking it seriously and spending. I
spent you know, all the whole off season, and I've
be putting out reports every year since.
Speaker 4: So this is the report's been coming out since two
thousand and one.
Speaker 3: So you get the opinions, you know, you get my bets,
you know, stuff that I've made.
Speaker 4: I talk about how to bet it.
Speaker 3: We're to shop around to find the best of the number,
what other alternative bets you might want to make it
through the winning divisions or making playoffs, et cetera, et cetera.
And then I give a ton of analysis on the teams,
their schedules, their pros, cons.
Speaker 4: And that analysis is what people can use all year long.
You know.
Speaker 3: That's part of at least part of the added value
of the win report. That's why all you guys at
the way you're talking always want to look at it.
Speaker 4: It's not necessarily the pick, it's all the info that's
in there.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, so, I mean.
Speaker 3: There's a ton of info I spend, you know, again,
I spend all summer with it. Part two comes out
on Wednesday, so and again it's not gonna be deep.
You know, we're talking about a play maybe two. But
Part two of the report comes out on Wednesday. If
you haven't gotten on board, now's the chance to do it.
If visit my page Toot, buzz backslash TC.
Speaker 4: I also want to.
Speaker 3: Talk about the special we got on right now, the
all access, because this is the best deal you're gonna get.
Speaker 4: You know, if you want to partner. I understand buying
picks is not for everyone. I get it.
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Speaker 3: Check it out on my page wt dot buzz, backslash
TC or just is the website wager talk dot com.
Speaker 2: All right, Teddy, let's get into my favorite division in
all of football.
Speaker 1: That is the NFC North.
Speaker 2: I know a lot of people are like why, and
it's just because it has just been one of those divisions.
Speaker 1: I've always followed.
Speaker 2: I have a lot of family from Chicago obviously our
Wayger Talk families from Detroit. I used to do a
show in Minneapolis, and of course now I'm dating a
Packers fan, so this division is somehow gravitated towards me,
and now I love to watch all of these games.
This is the tightest so far, at least as we've
seen as far as the odds go, the Detroit Lions
plus one, see the Green Bay Packers plus two twenty five,
the Minnesota Vikings plus three twenty and our producer for
today at least Jag is Chicago Bears plus five point
fifty Saddy, who is winning the NFC North.
Speaker 1: I've got my money on the Minnesota Vikings.
Speaker 3: So this is a fascinating division, and you can make
the case that it's the toughest division in football flat out.
Speaker 4: You know, there ain't no weaklings here.
Speaker 3: The Bears will be better than they've been in Minnesota,
Green Bay, Detroit. They've all got Super Bowl upside, you know,
every one of them, no question in my mind.
Speaker 4: So you know, and when you have that type ups
I don't know the Bears have foot Bawl upside. It's
certainly yet they.
Speaker 3: Are three extra games, and of course the a NFC
North teams face NFC East and AFC North. N it's
the East good division, mediocre division, maybe AFC.
Speaker 4: North pretty good.
Speaker 3: Three extras for the Bears, the Raiders, the Saints, the
forty nine ers, so not the toughest of the three.
They don't get any warm weather teams to come in
after like mid October, so that's maybe a negative to
their schedule.
Speaker 4: Certainly, we're talking about the Guru and.
Speaker 3: Ben Johnson and the new head coach, and Caleb Williams
has a number one overall draft Toroys Kili Williams is
not a bust, all right.
Speaker 4: This is not JaMarcus Russell coming. I think Cale Williams
be just fine.
Speaker 3: And when we look at the again win now moves
this past offseason, the Bears could be pretty good.
Speaker 4: They really could be.
Speaker 3: The Lions, of course, are still the team to beat,
and the two new coordinators, I.
Speaker 4: Get it, but.
Speaker 3: Their schedules tough, three extra games Pittsburgh, the Rams and
the Bucks. And you look at how they start the season,
you know, Green Bay, Chicago, Baltimore, sincey Kansas City, Tampa, Minnesota, Washington,
Philly in the first ten games. Only easy game they
have is Cleveland during that span. You know, we could
see value on Detroit later in the year. If they
start out, let's say they're five hundred at the halfway point,
that might be the time to look at the Allions
to win the division, or some futures on the Lions
then in Green Bay. This is certainly a surprisingly large
sentiment in the betting markets, at least the people that
I talked to here in Las Vegas look at the Packers.
Speaker 4: And go yeah.
Speaker 3: I looked at Green Bay and go yeah, yeah. You know,
the NFL showcase in this team he got four night
games the first ten weeks. They are three extras Arizona, Carolina, Denver.
I like two of those three teams. Carolina is still
going to be Carolina, I believe.
Speaker 4: But I certainly look.
Speaker 3: At Green Bay as being a team not to overlook
in this division.
Speaker 4: No, not at all. The Biking's gonna go as far
as J. J. McCarthy could take him.
Speaker 3: Last time he saw McCarthy playing, he won a national
championship in Michigan. He certainly looked a part this offseason.
He looked a part last offseason. They made every move
to keep McCarthy and not let Darnold go, which we
so go. We'll have you know, I'm confident I'll have
a couple of growing, paying games, but by the end
of the year he could be pretty done good. They
only have one true road game the first seven weeks.
They have two games in London. There are three extras Atlanta,
the Chargers, and Seattle. Not the toughest trio that you're
going to see opposing teams face. So you know, it's
a very tough division. The worst team in this division
would be one of the best teams in like one
of the South divisions. The Bears might be favored to
win the AFC South, but here, obviously they're the fourth
choice because that's the division they're in.
Speaker 2: All right, let's move along to the NFC South again. Guys,
if you have a question for Teddy, drop it in
the chat. We've got some NFC wast questions. We'll get
to here in a minute, but first we got to
talk to the talk about the division that is closest
to my new home.
Speaker 4: Teddy.
Speaker 2: I've been to a lot of Bucks games since I
moved to Florida. They are the front runner here, but
just minus one fifteen to win the NFC South Falcons
plus two ten Carolina plus four seventy five New Orleans
eighteen to one. Teddy took a longer shot flyer here
on the Carolina Panthers. I do like Baker Mayfield in
this Bucks defense, but I think that they benefited from
a lot of things going their way the past few seasons.
The Falcons, I'm not sure what we're going to see
from this team. I'm not high on them, but the
Panthers seem really interesting to me. I think that they've
made some nice offseason moves and in a division that
seems to be fairly wide open.
Speaker 1: Almost five to one held some value to me.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not.
Speaker 3: Getting there with Carolina. In fact, I lay the price
with Tampa. If I had to make one bet in
this division, Tampa is the best team. It's really not
that close.
Speaker 4: And you talk about Atlanta, I've got concerns about.
Speaker 3: Atlanta as Wellheen Morris. I'm not a coach. I'm not
a riped the coach guy, but I'm not a Raheem
Morris fan. Michael Pennick's got you know, he had three
starts against teams with weak defenses late in the season,
and they've you know, and obviously the Cousin's still on
the roster. Cousins won't be I'm assuming that someone, some
quarterbacks is gonna hurt something trade for him fairly early.
That's a reasonable assumption. Three extra games for Atlanta, Minnesota,
Washington Colts in Berlin. None of those are easy earliest
by possible. These am a long stretch afterwards. That being said,
there's schedules. You know, I don't know if this is
the easiest stretch of any team all year, but it
might be close. They got Miami, New England, Indie, Carolina
and New Orleans, the Jets and Seattle over a seven
week span, you know, late October into December, so there's
room for Atlanta schedule wise to make some noise. I
just don't know if they're good enough. Plenty of talent
on that team, they have not shown any signs to
me to putting it together. You know, Carolina, you know,
Canal has brought everyone back, but you have an embarrassing owner,
a team that hasn't made the playoffs in twenty eighteen,
and they're like Tennessee and they're coming from complete rebuild.
Speaker 4: So I can see them being better. I expect them
to be better.
Speaker 3: NFC South teams, by the way, places NFC West and
AFC East opponents the three extras for this dismal Carolina squad, Dallas,
Green Bay, Jacksonville their dogs and all of them, you know,
And it's not the league showcase in this team.
Speaker 4: They have a week fourteen.
Speaker 3: By they could be all beat up by then there's again,
it's your money, do with it what you want. My
money's not going on Carolina to win the division. And
at the end of the year, if they do, you
can mock me. It's fine.
Speaker 4: I won't be mad.
Speaker 3: When we talk about the Saints, this is looks like
the worst team in football. You know, there's there's there's
no sugarcoating what's gone on in New Orleans. A team
that you know, kick the cans salary cap wise for
very part of a decade, and now they're at the
back end of that hanging all these guys that aren't
there anymore, and it's a you know, it's a true rebuilding.
You have a new coach, three extra games, four New Orleans,
the Giants, the Bears, the Titans, so at least two
of the three are okay. But it's not a it's
it's Tampa's division to lose. You know, the Bucks have
been there. They're loaded. Both sides of the ball look good.
Off the line looks good. You have a head coach
who you know, everyone likes ripping Todd Bowles because he
doesn't he's not particularly emotional on the sideline.
Speaker 4: I don't care.
Speaker 3: They got six games versus division teams, all lined at
seven and a half wins are lower, but the Jets,
the only other team on their schedule lined lower than
eight and a half wins. The three extras Houston, Philly, Detroit,
much tougher than anyone else's division, so that does perhaps
give room for somebody else to make some noise. But
there's no other playoff team in this division. It's Tampa
or passed for me.
Speaker 2: I would agree, and it's Tampa's division to lose. Teddy,
We're gonna move along to the NFC West before we
finish up the show here.
Speaker 1: But if you guys are watching, of course, on the
wayge to talk YouTube channel, hit that like button.
Speaker 2: Make sure your subscribes you never miss another episode of
the opening line report. Teddy and are gonna be here
every single Monday, including the Monday after Super Bowl. So
I already had to move my post super Bowl vacation
by one day. All jokes aside, we love Teddy. We're
gonna do some emergency betting alerts, so I got this. This
is a really cool thing off Amazon. I think it's
super fun. Apparently you can just magnet to your car,
so maybe next time I get stuck in traffic, I
can use that as well. Teddy, what else can they
be expecting here on Mondays? We're going to be live
eleven eastern eight am Pacific every single Monday, getting ready
for the week for the NFL slate.
Speaker 3: Look, it's not close. This is the best betting show
out there on a Monday. I think it's the best
betting show out there any day, but for Monday morning.
Speaker 4: If you're someone like me who wants to get at
it early, pay attention early.
Speaker 3: In the week, take advantage of betting numbers that aren't
going to be there in a couple hours. This is
your show. The show has been growing, growing this year.
I expected to blow up. You know, we got what
two hundred and twelve thousands followers drivers yeah, channel, and
that's only going up. You guys are talking about it
with your friends. I appreciate that very much. If you
like the show, tell somebody you know. But it's it's
It will get you prepared for the week, and when
you're go into work on Monday, you'll have more to
talk or you'll have you'll have the key points to
talk about and impress your friends. So but more than that,
my goal is make you guys money. My goal is
to make me money, and you come along for the ride.
So we'll certainly be you know, for a thorough analysis
on Monday morning, what really happened yesterday? What can we
really expect to see this week. I'm not a fluff guy.
I'm not the pump it up guy. I'm not a
hype guy. It's just not how I roll. If you
want good analysis, come here every Monday, eight am Pacific,
eleven am East.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Teddy's right. I always have my notebook ready, pen
and paper. Get some of those early tidbits that I
can also use throughout the week, something I may have missed.
I want you guys missing out on a single ounce
of the best of the number and of course, the
best of the information.
Speaker 1: Let's do this.
Speaker 2: Last division before we get out of here and send
you guys on to wager Talk today. Jay Boff already
asking me about the NFC West way back early in
the show, and then he thought I was picking on
him by not answering his question.
Speaker 1: We just hadn't got there yet.
Speaker 2: So let's talk about the NFC West here, Teddy, and
he wants to know how we feel about San Francisco.
Perty has a new contract. He's lost some pieces on offense, Sure,
lots of people are high on them. Not show sure thoughts.
Speaker 1: Also, Hi, Kelly and Vegas.
Speaker 2: So let's get those division odds up so we can
break this one down. The Niners plus one fifty five
Rams two to one, Arizona plus four twenty five Seahawks
five to one. This was a tightly contested division as well, Teddy,
I took a twenty to one flyer on the Niners
to win the Super Bowl last or the Niners benefited
in a negative way from injuries and turnovers and so forth.
But one of the things it does always scare me
is when those quarterbacks finally get those big contracts. But
I do think the Niners are gonna win the NFC West.
I do think that the Rams have a question mark
as well, with the health of Matthew Stafford. Talk to
me about the NFC West before we get out of here.
Speaker 3: So I talked earlier in the show about how you
want to take some of the stuff you see in
preseason and take it with a.
Speaker 4: Grain of salt. Tap the breaks down a little bit.
This is not that.
Speaker 3: And two of the teams we talked about, and I'm
gonna go in order like I do for everyone, but
there are issues in Sanford. I don't think there's any
team in the league that had a worse preseason in
San Francisco and the Rams are right there with them.
So let's talk about it, and we'll start with Arizona.
Who's the team that showed upside last year. I spent
a lot of money on defense this offseason. I do
think if I'm gonna make one bet in the and
the NFC West, to probably be Arizona to win the division.
There's three extra games Green Bay, Dallas and since he
not easy there, but they surely have a chance to
get off to a hot start in New Orleans, Carolina,
San fran Seattle, Tennessee, and Indye the first six games
and the back half team they were better on the
road than at home last year. In the back half season,
they got a bunch of tough road games, So I
think it's steal a couple of those, you know, Dallas, Seattle, Tampa,
Houston since the Rams all tough. But I do think
there's upside for the Arizona, a team that spent a
lot of money on defense this offseason, with the defensive mindset.
Speaker 4: The issues with Stafford are real, all right.
Speaker 3: If Stafford gets hurt, if Stafford can't go, the Rams
are in trouble.
Speaker 4: And everybody knows that.
Speaker 3: You know, three extra games for the LA Rams, Philly, Baltimore, Detroit,
and of course NFC South and AFC South for the
NFC West. That makes it relatively easy in that regard.
But those three extras again, Philly, Baltimore, Detroit, that says
tough as it gets for a team that it's clear
that Stafford's back is an issue, and you know that
worries me for La when it comes to futures. If
he stays healthy, team's got all kinds of upside, but
the backup quarterback is.
Speaker 4: Not going to lead that team to the postseason. In
this Better's opinion.
Speaker 3: San France scheduled so much easier this year than it
was last year. And they were minus ten turnovers and
they were two and five and one score games, and
you have Kyle Shanahan back and Robert Seal. I was like, oh,
they got the right defensive coordinator back then.
Speaker 4: I get it. There's a love for San Francisco, but this.
Speaker 3: Team was the injury real mess all year last year
and this August. I don't think any team had more
injuries than San Francisco. Two key guys that worries me
a lot, especially when you had to you know, I
thin again, they jettisoned a bunch of veterans and big names.
I don't always worry about that when you had to
pay brock perty two hundred sixty five million, But as
soon as you start have to pay your quarterback, that
affects your depth. Just ask what happened to Cincinnati when
they paid Joe Burrow and everybody else who's a star
for the Bengals. Three extra games for San Franisi, the Giants, Chicago,
Cleveland in theory, but if they don't have healthy players,
it could be a concern, especially if they have a
week fourteen by and you know, Seattle's a team that
on paper they lost a lot. They're three extra games Pittsburgh, Washington, Minnesota,
all relatively tough, and they have a tough start San
France at pitt New Orleans at Arizona, Tampa Jacksonville road game,
Houston at Washington, Arizona and the Rams first ten.
Speaker 4: They could get off to a rough start. If they
get off to a rough start, do we see Jalen Milroe.
I don't know.
Speaker 3: So Seahawks are not a team that I'm particularly enamored
with coming in to the regular season.
Speaker 2: All right, Guys, that has been the opening line report
breaking down all of those divisions for you guys here
on the Wager talking Tube channel, of course, all of
those social media channels, I think, as well as Kick and.
Speaker 1: Maybe even Rumble. I'm not even sure we're I should
probably know.
Speaker 2: This is part of my job, but we're on every
single platform available at this point in time, including Spreaker.
So if you guys listen to any podcasts, Apple Podcasts, Spotify,
basically every single podcast network, you guys can catch us
there as well.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I just described so, I download the podcast on
Spotify now, thanks.
Speaker 1: I love that for us, we have our own, our
own little thumb there opening a line report on of course,
any podcast network that you.
Speaker 2: So choose, Teddy. That's all I've got today. I appreciate
everybody hanging out with us. Any final words before we
see you next Monday.
Speaker 4: Did we have any last questions from the chat? Or
is that all? We got?
Speaker 1: Lots of comments?
Speaker 2: I think it's this is a really fun chat. We've
got lots of people got it bickering back and forth.
They've got their opinions. But I'll give you guys last
call here for questions. No more questions in the chat
We're gonna get you guys out of here. Get ready
for Andy Lang in the Well of course show Wager
Talk today. If you guys want to see more, Teddy's
going to be part of bet On It Extra.
Speaker 1: He's going to be bringing you that same segment last year.
You know, the stock Watch.
Speaker 2: Yeah I don't have a watch on, but you get
the idea, guys, stock Watch where he is going to
bring you a team later on in the week that
you need to be buying on or selling on, So
be sure.
Speaker 1: To check that out as well.
Speaker 2: WT Dot Buzz, Backslash TC for Teddy covers if you
want to join Teddy for this upcoming NFL season?
Speaker 4: Am I talking? Are we done?