Speaker 1: Well, what's going on?
Speaker 2: Everybody?
Speaker 1: Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks. If you are new,
we already start this show by being transparent. And yesterday
I went two and one again, so profitable day Top
Play did win. I don't know why. I can't remember
what the players were yesterday, you know, but I did
go to in one regardless. How's everything for you yesterday?
How you doing today?
Speaker 3: Things were good? Yesterday had a two and oh one
in the w was the Sparks game over. The total
against Washington went way over the total nineteen ninety eighty final.
That worked, as did a NBA Summer League game Brooklyn
nets New York next That one over got there as well.
So two and oh yesterday on the hook here this
afternoon early got one home in a little revenge spot.
We played Minnesota first quarter against Phoenix. That worked, but
I played way too early yesterday afternoon, ski playing the
Chicago Atlantic game over before the injuries came out, and
last night I had to scurry back and try and
try and cover up for that mess and it turns
out to be a mess boy. Chicago just hasn't been
able to score here. So I'm gonna wind up one
on one this afternoon.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was on the show last night with Kyle
and we talked about that game, and I talked all
about the team total under for Chicago. I didn't take it,
of course, but I do remember what I had yesterday.
I had Connecticut plus sixteen. That was the five dollars
Tuesday play. That was my best bet. It was a winner,
and the first half over eighty four and a half
was a winner. And then I lost on Britney Sykes
over fifteen and a half points. Didn't even try, you know,
she was just I didn't like that at all, I'll
tell you that. But we got three more games here
for today and see if we can get to some
more money. Got a couple of games going on right
now as well, finishing up fourth quarter of one, and
maybe we can get some halftime looks on Phoenix and Minnesota,
we'll see, all right, first game we'll talk about here
today looks like Valkyries and Storm. This game opened up
Storm minus five and a half, hasn't really moved total
open one fifty eight and a half and it's down
as low as one fifty five and a half. Injuries,
I do not see any on there. Pretty clean right there.
This will be a rest advantage spot for the Storm
they last played on the thirteenth compared to the Valkyries
who played on the fourteenth. Both teams are off of losses.
Seattle lost to Washington as a favorite and Golden State
at the end of that last game versus Phoenix lost
on a free though, So this one, this one is
a little tough here. You know, I say, with both
teams off of loss, you should get a good effort
from both of them. Two really good defensive teams as well.
I mean, I can understand why the total has come
down a little bit here. Let me just remind myself
it has come down about two points. I think I'm
in agreement with that. And you know, if Valkyries would
have won yesterday, I would have been looking a little
bit more to the Storm probably or not yesterday but
the other day. But because they didn't like and the
way that they lost, I just think they're gonna play
really hard, and they've been really good all year when
they're catching points. So I can't go against the Vokyries
plus five and a half, and I do think it's
more of an undergame. How do you see this one
be no.
Speaker 3: Yeah, in terms of how they lost that game, Ski,
we alluded to it a little bit yesterday. A free throw,
a foul committed against the list of Thomas with one
second left Seattle or excuse me, Golden They head coached
Natalie Nicasi just losing off of a free throw that
to me hurts. Head coach didn't like the fact that
she lost with one second left to a free throw either,
So maybe Golden State comes a little bit of a chip.
Speaker 2: On her shoulder. I know this.
Speaker 3: They've played Seattle twice so far this season. They've beaten
them pretty well. Two times. Both were at home, though,
and we know that Golden State's been They're feisty everywhere,
to use your word, but they've been feisty you're at home.
I don't like what I've seen out of Seattle's offense
the last couple of games. I mean, it's like it's
reverting backwards again. They had that really nice win on
the road against the Liberty and then heading into break
your next three games are two with Connecticut and one
at home with Washington, and you get beat straight up
by Connecticut and Washington. And in the game that you won,
you didn't even look that good seventy nine to sixty five.
So I don't know what's up with Seattle in these
games against Golden State. And this again, this will be
the first time they played Golden State here in Seattle.
But in these games against Golden State, NECA hasn't played
all that well five of sixteen combined in two games,
just fourteen points against this team. Could be a little
bit of like you say, really good defense out of
the Valkyries, or it could just have been a couple
of poor performance shooting wise.
Speaker 2: I don't know. We know that venue is pretty tough.
There I looked.
Speaker 3: Here's where I look ski after I read this quote
from Seattle head coach Noel Quinn, who's in response to
the team scoring ten points in the first ten minutes
against the Mystics, so at ten point first quarter. She
said the team must correct that in order to beat
the Valkyries tonight. When I see coaches or notable players
talk about needing to get off the quick starts, I
take that pretty seriously most of the time. So I
looked towards Seattle in the first quarter here at home
revenge spot head coach it says we got to get
off to a quicker start, and they're only a one
and a half point favorite first quarter. So if I
were to look in this game, I haven't bet it yet,
but I think that would be my My play would
be first quarter Seattle to win by a bucket. Just
adding all those elements up. But overall, I kind of
agree with both of these line moves, and I agree
with a lot of what you said that points toward
Golden State in under.
Speaker 2: As far as full game is concerned, hit that mute
buttons Ki.
Speaker 1: My bad. Yeah, Jeff, Jeff likes to under and m
He's mentioned in a storm just off of bad loss
and got blown out last time versus the Valkyriz things
that maybe they should give a good effort here, and uh,
I can understand when to get on the storm early,
you know, justin cooland also liking the storm, I can understand.
I do think it'll be a lower scoring game. I'll
say that. Let's keep going down the list. We have
Indiana and New York. This one opened up well, I
feel like so there was these there was It wasn't
open on the West. Maybe it was open on fandor
or somewhere else at the lower numbers, but it didn't
open up over here, So the opener I have is
minus nine and as high as ten and a half.
Right now, total open one sixty five and a half
and it's as low as one sixty three. For the
injury report. Kaitlin Clark has not been ruled out yet,
but I mean she's questionable. I wouldn't expect her to
play personally, and we know John Quolt Jones is still
out for this Liberty team. The Fever did play yesterday,
they were able to squeak out a win versus Sun.
Now they have to see the Liberty here on the road.
Liberty have started to play a little bit better lately, Vino.
I think they've won three of their last four. We
know how important Foebich is in the lineup for them.
Do you think they keep it going here? Do you
think Kaitlyn Clark is gonna play? And do you think
New York can win by double digits?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: The interesting question here, Ski is that you know already
and it hasn't been I mean it's been announced for
maybe two three days. But the three point contest that
the All Star Game, which features Kitlyn Clark and Sabrina Enescu,
you would have got that match up here. I would
think that Caitlyn Clark, if she can go, would go here.
I think that you put team first before All Star weekend.
But as I thought that, I'm not so sure.
Speaker 2: I mean the last name, you know, yes, with less
than forty seconds left.
Speaker 3: I mean the fact that they got pushed by Connecticut
so hard last night in a game where they were
sixteen point favorites. Makes her be on the court with
less than forty seconds left and get her tweaked the groin.
Speaker 2: We don't know what it is. If you ask me.
Speaker 3: She was crying at the end of the game. I
don't think she'll go here. I don't even know if
she'll be able to go where the All Star Game
is concerned. But I was trying to way back and forth,
is what would she deem more important? Is it more
important to the league to have her available for the
All Star Game? Is it more important to her to
go for her team? They played back to backs and
they got to win last night. Maybe your rest her here.
I can't help but think Ski that it's reminiscent. I'll
go to an NBA comparison here. It's kind of reminiscent
of what happened to ad came back after that abductor
or whatever it was, and then two games later heard
it again and he was out for a while. Not
so sure what this injury is, but we'll have to
wait and see. All that being said, if she can't go,
these numbers are going to be affected for sure. But
this is why Indiana got Ary McDonald because her first
game she got used to running the team without Caitlin
Clark being available. Then she got more games under her belt.
She looked fine running the Indiana fever. So while she
may not be Caitlin Clark as a passer, she certainly
is a more than capable point guard here. And to me,
there's a couple of things here when I look at
Indiana and what they might be able to produce offensively.
New York's defense has been bad last ten games. The
New York defense eighty four point nine per game, ninth
in the WNBA. Indiana scoring is second in the league
last ten games, and those last ten games, five of
them are without Caitlin Clark. Liberty number eleven last ten games.
An effective field goal percentage allowed Indiana offense number three,
New York eight, and defensive raiding Indiana too in offensive raiding.
I mean New York doesn't defend the paint last ten games,
number ten in paint field goal percentage, Indiana offense number
two in that category. So there's a lot of matchups
here that could work for Indiana. I take that and
you weigh that with New York, which and Sabrini and
Escu was three for twenty from the floy the other
day fifteen percent oh of seven from three point range.
To me, that spells bounced back where she's concerned. Natasha
Cloud was one of five over to the starting back
what was four twenty five. I think you get a
bounce back there. Liberty only shot thirty eight and a
half percent. They two lead the league in points scored
eighty six point three, And I think there's a revenge
mode if your first time around they get beat one
O two to eighty eight on national television on a
Saturday afternoon by Indiana in Indiana, So I know New
York doesn't forget that. And I'll say this, they scored
eighty eight points in that game without John Cuell Jones
and without Leoni Phoebus. She was playing EuroBasket at the time.
So the two of their three best three point shooters,
Phoebus is shooting fifty percent from three, Jones forty three
over forty three percent from three, and they still got
to eighty eight. Yenescu and and Brianna Stewart had big games.
Their team total here is eighty six and a half.
I don't think that they should have any problem getting
over eighty six and a half here. If I think
that way, and what I said earlier about the Liberty
defense being bad, you probably like full game total too.
But I would wait on it because as soon as
they say that Caitlin Clark is out, you're gonna go
from one sixty three probably down to one sixty one,
maybe lower. You probably get a better price later. But
I think both of those overs work here.
Speaker 2: Ski. I think the Liberty will score and score.
Speaker 3: Big revenge motive for them, and also a bounce back
for Yenescu and her and her shooting, and potentially a
full game over. But I would wait on that one
because I think you're going to get a better price.
Speaker 1: Man, I kind of disagree. I kind of disagree here, Rob.
I think I mean both teams are capable of playing defense.
Let me just go I want to look at last
games here over at the Moneybottery, I think, I mean,
both teams are capable. Liberty just held Atlanta to seventy two,
Vegas to seventy eight, Seattle to seventy nine. Even though
they lost Sparks to seventy nine. Liberty are playing solid defense.
Last five game stats, they are number one defensive rated team.
So I think that they can continue that, especially in
a revenge spot like you mentioned. And for the fever,
I mean it's been it's been a little bit shaky
in a couple of games. But one thing I will
say is if Kaitlin Clark doesn't play the defense, the
defense gets better. The offense also gets a little bit worse.
The defense gets better, so that means less points to me,
and the fever being on the second of a back
to back, I think they could die out offensively, especially
as the game goes on. Another thing I just want
to I've been listening to a few of the players
interviews lately and they're asked about what helps them be
successful on offense or what helps them be successful in general.
And the first thing Kelsey Mitchell said it. She said,
it's really our defense, and she just you know, elaborates
on how the defense is most important. Yesterday, Sophie Cunningham
says the same thing in her postgame interview. So I
see this as more of a defensive game. And the
numbers already dropped, probably because they expect Kaitlyn Clark to
be out. I don't think it's gonna you know, you're
not gonna get a better number. If you like under,
if you like over, yeah you should probably wait. But
I think I'm more of under in this game. You
Capur in the Buildings says it's okay to disagree. Ski Okay,
Mark looks like he had a nice little first half
on the Mercury plus six and a half. I need
him for the full game, so I need them to fight, fight, Mercury,
keep it up. Let's see a couple other people happy
with that Mercury. I guess real quick here, if you
know thirty three thirty seven at the end of the
first half. I didn't get to watch that second quarter
as much because I've been on here with you. But
the second half number I saw four and a half
or I still see one at bet MGM. But I
see a five and a half popping up fives mostly.
I mean, second half is moving a lot towards the Links.
It is a revenge spot for the Links. You know,
they have been a really good second half team. Do
you think the line is moving in the right direction there?
Or the total second half total of seventy six and
a half, maybe they think they continue to see really
good defense. I don't want anything to do with the total,
I'll tell you that right now. But the side, well,
I already know what I need to win, so I'm
not betting the second half. But I'm curious if you
have an opinion of you know, yeah.
Speaker 3: If you already have the Mercury and you have them
plus ten, then there's no reason to take five and
a half in the second It's basically the same thing, right,
So you stick with what you have and see what
happens twenty one to ten. And I thought, maybe you know,
it's in response to what Ronald said, and it's okay
to disagree. I mean, I did have Minnesota first quarter,
they win Phoenix first half day when twenty one to
ten first quarter gets turned around by Phoenix twenty three
to sixteen second quarter, and perhaps a lot of that
is due to the fact that My line of thinking
real quick was they might have a little bit of
trouble ball handling to start the game. Really no guards
on this team, Melissa Thomas would have to take over
most of the ball handling. Be shaky early. Looks like
they got it stabilized in the second quarter, and now
we see where it goes from here. I'd be a
little bit scared. I think you said it best because
Minnesota's been a good second half team that we saw
it the other night.
Speaker 2: You and I actually text back.
Speaker 3: And forth about the ryl Reeve went into the locker
room disappointed with the way the team played in the
first half. They came out and we're fired up second half.
This is the last half of basketball before you head
into the All Star breaks, so I think you'll get
top effort from both teams. It's just the question of,
you know, who's got the better personnel here, man, I
don't know. I think I would lay off this thing entirely,
especially if I'm you when you already have Phoenix. I
would just say, you know, I'll ride this out, all right.
Speaker 1: That's that I mean, That's what I'm gonna do. I
will say, links are really good second half, So We're
we're gonna have to fight for this one.
Speaker 2: Just bet it down to five.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're gonna have to We're gonna have to fight
for this one. I know that for sure. Let's get
to the next game, the last game on a slate
for today, Aces and Wings. This one opened up minus
five and a half. I see, I mean it's kind
of all over. We'll call six. The consensus total open
one seventy two, and it's down as low as one
sixty nine and a half. As far as an injury report,
Cheyenne Parker Tyres remains out. She did just have a child,
so that's why she's been away. Dallas Wings, we have
Carrington listed as questionable. Secrets still remains remains out the ass.
If I'm not mistaken yet, they do have the rest
advantage here, three games compared to two. Both teams do
have a little bit of rest. The Wings. This is
the second game home after a pretty long road trip
for the Aces and having a few days off in between.
For the Wings. It's their first game after a three
game road trip. We usually call that a flat spot, right,
you know? And uh man, I can't I can't help
but think they might be extra flat today like the
Wings in my in my mind, they don't really have
too much to play for, like their season, and they're
not making noise this year. That's just how it is
what it is. And game before the break, Errique just
came back and they looked absolutely terrible, Like I don't
see much changing in this game before the break is
kind of what I'm hinting at here. For the Aces, though,
I do feel like the game is more important to them.
They're one game below five hundred after, you know, underperforming
as much as they did. They can go into the
break just that five hundred. I think they felt a
lot better about themselves. So I think the Aces would
be a little bit more for the side that I trust,
and I think they can really name their number. I'm
gonna check the team total while'll pass it to you.
How do you feel about this game?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's hard for me to lay that type of
price with Las Vegas, But that being said, it's just
as hard to take that price with Dallas off of
what I just saw that three game. You know, they
headed into that three game road trip pretty confident. They
were coming off a win against Phoenix eighty nine. They
beat that team without a Riku. I think we talked
about that last week, how it looked like the you
know page and a couple of others were talking about
how they shared and things were good, and the head
coach was happy to go back and play Phoenix again
in Phoenix, and they got destroyed by a shorthanded Phoenix team.
Then they got destroyed by Chicago, Then they got destroyed
by Indiana. It's hard to take that team, it really is.
My inclination always with them is to look at the
over first, see if you can get this game up
and over. And the Las Vegas defense still is a
roller coaster ski. I mean one game they look like
you know, Becky yells and screams and they come out
and they play well, but they gave up one hundred
and two in regulation to Golden State last game.
Speaker 2: I mean, they're just not.
Speaker 3: There defensively, and Dallas certainly can take advantage of teams
with their offense. I've reading a couple of coaches from
Paige Becker this morning. You know, the process is slow,
We're not going.
Speaker 2: To change what we do. We're still young. Blah blah
blah blah blah blah.
Speaker 3: None of that indicates a win, but they do play
better at home, and the Aces again have been so
up and down I'm afraid to bet that side.
Speaker 2: Tell you the.
Speaker 3: Truth, this game has come down a little bit toward
the under, and in my head, I think that's because
they just.
Speaker 2: Gave up one hundred and two. The Aces did.
Speaker 3: And their focus probably tonight will be on defense. Not
that they're a good defensive team, but when they do focus,
which is once every other game, I guess they do
play better d So maybe it doesn't get over. I
had a lot of conflicts back and forth with this game.
Didn't play, but like I said, man, I hate myself
for wanting to bet Dallas plus six so badly, but
it's kind of the way I would lean if, in
fact I had to bet it, which I haven't.
Speaker 1: Mark likes Page Becker's over seventy nine points. Can't talk
y'all for that, Jeffery said, Scared they bounced back after
that horrible performance first Indy Jeffrey says, also, highest total
on the board is an overreaction to the Golden State game.
Feels like the total is too high. One seventy is
about where you should be for Wings games. If Wings
games are lying under one seventy, you should automatically look
at the over That's how I feel. I'll say this here.
You know, Aces defense has not been the greatest. If
you trust the Mercury to score, I mean, if you
trust the Wings to score, this game should should definitely
clear one seventy. I mean, just looking at what they've
been giving up lately. All right, let's go to let's
go to the Wings one o two to Indiana. They
gave up eighty seven to Chicago, which is the team
total for Aces. Tonight the gave a one o two
to Phoenix eighty nine Phoenix, like they'll give it up.
And we can look at the last few times these
teams are played Aces, I mean Aces ninety plus. Well,
what team total is eighty seven and a half, so
they've cleared that in their last five meetings. Versus Dallas
won this season the rest in other seasons. But this
Dallas defense is ass that's the more of a story.
So it's over or nothing in this game, and I
would just trust the Aces to do a little bit
more of the scoring. That's how I feel. Anything else
to add their you know, real.
Speaker 3: Quick, I'll say this when a Rik came back the
other day. She immediately went over ten from the floor
over three from three. But what they tried in that
game was kind of like with Indiana tried in Kitland
Clark's first game back. They left Arry McDonald then his
starting point guard, moved Kaitlyn Clark to small forward. Here
they let JJ Quinnerley play point guard as in the
starting lineup and move the rik is small forward.
Speaker 2: You probably have to.
Speaker 3: Change that back to what they had to start the season, right,
Probably have to move Page back to handling the ball
and move a Rique back to the two and he
get his Ia James back into the three spot. But
I don't know that they'll do that. I'm with you, Ski,
I mean, you know how I am with these Dallas games.
I love to play them over, and my first instinct
would be to play this game over. I just it
scares me that Becky gets so angry with this team
off miserable defensive performances, and maybe they show up here,
but I can't count on it because they've been bad,
you know, fifty sixty percent of the time they've been.
Speaker 2: Bad defensively this year. So hard hard game for me
to gauge.
Speaker 1: All Right, we're going to wrap it up almost second
half of the game that's still going. We'll move it
over the best bets. Not going to put anything up
on the screen for today, he says, the last day
of WNBA before All Star break. But we'll be back,
I believe on Tuesday. And yeah, I'll I'll say is
I do have a best bet up in available on
the site. If you guys want to check it out,
you know where to find it over I Wager Talk.
Speaker 2: Vino.
Speaker 1: I'll ask you if there's anything you would like to promote,
and if you have best bet for the Chowfiel, free
to share. If you don't, all good.
Speaker 3: Let's go right, two best bets here's ski. We're, like
I said, closing in on the All Star break here
for the WNBA, and since I don't handicap baseball, it
will be CFL Canadian Football League for the weekend.
Speaker 2: And Summer League too.
Speaker 3: By the way, six and one in last seven Summer
League plays, so we have it, have had a pretty
good gauge on that. I'm gonna go back to where
we started here, the Fever and the Liberty. My first
glance at that game, I thought automatically, I want to
play Liberty team total over I played it, it'll be
my best bet for the show. The numbers eighty six
and a half. I just think the Liberty comes out
and scores here. It is a revenge mod motive for
them in this game.
Speaker 2: Kitlyn Clark.
Speaker 3: The one thing that she does do well on the
defensive side. She's the second leading defensive rebounder on Indiana,
So some of that rebounding goes away when you have
Erry McDonald in there. Perhaps he gets some second chances
out of New York. But I think Sabrina three of
twenty last game, that's got to be different. She had
thirty four against this team the first time around. So
for me, it's going to be over eighty six and
a half team total New York Liberty. That'll be my
best bet.
Speaker 1: All right, today, I'm gonna do something a little bit different,
and I'm just going to tell you ways I'm looking
because I could add a few, I could add a couple.
I'm still I'm still thinking about it, and there's still time.
So it's either right now Golden State or under. Maybe
even that means Seattle team total under. If I put
them both together, I'm going with the I would go
with the under in the Indiana and New York game,
and the last game is aces or over, so actually
aces or aces team total over. Those are what I
think are the best best for today. Am I playing
them all? I have not yet could I very well cooked.
So that's gonna be the show for today. Fino, appreciate
you coming on and breaking these games down with me chat.
I always appreciate you all as well. You guys help
make the show what it is. And for all of
you else watching out their Twitch, kick x, Apple, Spotify,
you are appreciated. Like I said, there will be no
show until Tuesday when WNBA returns from All Stars, so
best of luck on all of your action in your
other sports or whatever it is you do in the meantime,
and we will catch you guys when we return