1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:03,600 Speaker 1: Marking dogs have been cashing at a great rate in 2 00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:07,440 the NFL. It is week three and we know what 3 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:10,480 that means. Chaos week is upon us. We're gonna go 4 00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:13,359 over those primetime games. We're gonna see if the deli's 5 00:00:13,439 --> 00:00:16,199 back open. With Marco, we know we're gonna get all 6 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:19,160 of that steam action from VR and of course best 7 00:00:19,199 --> 00:00:21,320 bets up next on bet on it. 8 00:00:36,719 --> 00:00:37,079 Speaker 2: VR. 9 00:00:37,359 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 1: You guys know him as the Greek Gambler and Marco 10 00:00:39,679 --> 00:00:43,920 in Vegas, Marco DiAngelo. Everybody here is from wager talk 11 00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:45,880 dot com. If you guys are new, make sure you 12 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:48,679 guys hit that like button and of subscribe to the 13 00:00:48,719 --> 00:00:51,560 wager Talking YouTube channel because we've got a great show 14 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:56,280 for you today, starting off Tomorrow night. Marco. Thursday Night Football, 15 00:00:56,359 --> 00:00:59,920 Miami almost a two touchdown underdog at their divisional right 16 00:01:00,359 --> 00:01:02,719 Buffalo total forty nine and a half. 17 00:01:03,799 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 3: Well, Kelly, at first glance, you look at this game 18 00:01:06,439 --> 00:01:08,799 and there's just you know, you're gonna run to the 19 00:01:08,799 --> 00:01:11,159 window and you're gonna like Buffalo and you're gonna like 20 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:14,560 over because Miami looks like a team in total disarray. 21 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:19,319 Remember after week one, they had a player's only meeting. 22 00:01:19,359 --> 00:01:23,280 After one week well, that player's only meeting wasn't very 23 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:27,159 productive because they went out and lost last week at 24 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:29,599 home to the New England Patriots. Not only did they 25 00:01:29,599 --> 00:01:33,040 lose to the Patriots for the second week in a row, 26 00:01:33,719 --> 00:01:39,920 they've given up thirty three points. Okay, when you faced Indianapolis, 27 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:43,480 who's playing well after the first two weeks, and New England, 28 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:45,400 but you give up thirty three to both of those 29 00:01:45,439 --> 00:01:47,799 two teams, things aren't looking too good. 30 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 4: And now incomes Buffalo. 31 00:01:50,159 --> 00:01:53,439 Speaker 3: Based off of that, you might think that Buffalo could 32 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:56,959 hit this total on their own with their offense. 33 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:57,719 Speaker 4: But here's the thing. 34 00:01:57,879 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 3: It's a Thursday night game, it's a division game, short week, 35 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:03,959 it's an opponent. Both teams know each other, so you 36 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:07,799 know how to prepare for them. And these teams have 37 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:09,919 more of these type of games, have more of a 38 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:12,960 tendency to go under the total than over the total. 39 00:02:13,319 --> 00:02:16,639 And what I'm looking at here, the only shot that 40 00:02:16,759 --> 00:02:18,680 Miami has in this game is they got to shorten 41 00:02:18,719 --> 00:02:22,000 the game. This offense is not going to trade points 42 00:02:22,159 --> 00:02:25,479 with Buffalo. If you're gonna try that type of game plan, 43 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:30,400 coach McDaniel, you might as well just you know, start 44 00:02:30,439 --> 00:02:33,599 sending out your resumes because you're gonna be fired sooner 45 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:38,080 than later. And the joke is which Florida coach is 46 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:40,280 gonna get fired first. Is it gonna be the Gators 47 00:02:40,319 --> 00:02:42,960 coach Billy Napier, or is it gonna be the Dolphins coach. 48 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:47,400 Might put my money on a Dolphins coach. And I'm 49 00:02:47,439 --> 00:02:50,159 looking at this one. I think you're gonna see them 50 00:02:50,199 --> 00:02:52,159 try to shorten the game with the running game. I 51 00:02:52,199 --> 00:02:55,800 think you can actually run the football against Buffalo, attack 52 00:02:55,879 --> 00:02:58,639 them up the middle and try to shorten the game. 53 00:02:58,759 --> 00:03:01,240 And let's be honest, if Buffalo, it's a short week 54 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:04,599 for them. Josh Allen left the game for a couple 55 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:07,319 of plays last week, but being Josh Allen, he came 56 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:10,319 back into the game being the warrior that he is. 57 00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:13,960 Short week, you know what, those bumps and bruises, they 58 00:03:14,039 --> 00:03:16,800 take their toll. If you're Buffalo, you want to get 59 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,759 in and get out as well. I think you're gonna 60 00:03:19,759 --> 00:03:22,919 see a lower scoring game. I think Buffalo gets the lead. 61 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:25,680 I think they try to milk the clock themselves, and 62 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:29,240 I'm going under the total of forty nine and a half. 63 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:32,319 We usually tell you here on the show get down now. 64 00:03:32,439 --> 00:03:35,400 This line's gonna move. I'm gonna tell you wait till 65 00:03:35,479 --> 00:03:38,000 closer to game time to bet this total since we're 66 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:42,199 betting the under. And why because the public hasn't gotten 67 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,360 involved yet. And I can tell you the public after 68 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:47,960 looking at what Miami's done the first two weeks and 69 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:50,479 looking what Buffalo's done the first two weeks, they ain't 70 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:53,240 running to the window to bet the under. They're gonna 71 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:55,199 be betting the over and you might get a little extra 72 00:03:55,319 --> 00:03:56,759 value closer to game time. 73 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,719 Speaker 1: Also, keep an eye because some of those prime time 74 00:04:00,319 --> 00:04:03,159 have been cash and we saw two more there on 75 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:07,599 Monday Night Football. Sunday Night Football, we've got the Kansas 76 00:04:07,639 --> 00:04:10,759 City Chiefs traveling at the New York Giants. Total forty 77 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:12,360 three and a half, and I think there's a lot 78 00:04:12,439 --> 00:04:16,120 to unpack here. There's some situations to look at. Of course, 79 00:04:16,519 --> 00:04:20,199 Kansas City off a loss, has been a really strong 80 00:04:20,319 --> 00:04:23,480 bounce back angle five and oh straight up four oh 81 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:26,920 and one against the spread. The last five we're gonna 82 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:30,040 look at a different angle. We're gonna look at how 83 00:04:30,079 --> 00:04:33,000 good that Kansas City defense has been. They just held 84 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:38,079 Philadelphia to two hundred and seventy nine yards. Well, what 85 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:40,000 did we just see last week from the Giants. Oh 86 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:44,480 that's right, we just saw Russell Wilson's best game ever 87 00:04:45,959 --> 00:04:49,360 just get obliterated and completely wiped out by a game 88 00:04:49,879 --> 00:04:51,480 losing interception. 89 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:52,879 Speaker 2: Thank you, Russell. 90 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:56,600 Speaker 1: My survivor team thanks to you needed that one big time. 91 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:58,720 But this is why this is such an interesting game. 92 00:04:59,439 --> 00:05:03,639 New York has been just rough lately at home one 93 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:06,920 in seven straight up two and six against the spread. 94 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:11,600 I like this game under the total. Keep in mind, 95 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:13,160 I agree with Marco. I think a lot of people 96 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:17,680 are gonna immediately dog reaction bet the over here it's 97 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:20,120 the Kansas City Chiefs. We just saw fourner and fifty 98 00:05:20,199 --> 00:05:24,199 yards and three touchdowns from Russell. Yeah, I get it. 99 00:05:24,639 --> 00:05:27,959 Thank you for showing us your latest Jameis Winston impression. 100 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:31,360 But I like the under. I think this one is 101 00:05:31,399 --> 00:05:35,120 just a touch too high. With both of these teams 102 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:37,199 we've played in the first three weeks of the regular 103 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:43,720 season games involving home dogs fifty six thirty and one. 104 00:05:43,759 --> 00:05:47,399 That's sixty five percent to the under. So give me 105 00:05:47,399 --> 00:05:49,279 the under. That is from our friends at the Gold Sheep. 106 00:05:49,319 --> 00:05:52,360 By the way, give me the under in Sunday Night 107 00:05:52,639 --> 00:05:56,000 football under forty three and a half VR. Let's move 108 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:59,360 on to Monday Night football, where I think maybe we 109 00:05:59,439 --> 00:06:02,759 have a barking dog situation. Detroit plus five and a 110 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:05,360 half at Baltimore total fifty one and a half. 111 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 5: Yeah, and this line continues to drop, but it opened 112 00:06:08,399 --> 00:06:10,240 as high as six and a half got beat down 113 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:12,399 to six five and a half. I've even seeing four 114 00:06:12,399 --> 00:06:15,279 and a half's out there this morning, like you touched on. 115 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:17,879 So definitely short money on the Detroit side, and it 116 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:20,839 makes sense where usually i'd look to fade a team 117 00:06:21,319 --> 00:06:23,600 like this. You scoring fifty points in the NFL and 118 00:06:23,639 --> 00:06:25,600 covering a point spread, you're usually going to come in 119 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:29,160 over valued the following week. But fortunately for them, they're 120 00:06:29,199 --> 00:06:32,439 playing a Baltimore team that's coming off back to back 121 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:35,959 weeks where they put up forty plus and if not 122 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:39,160 for the improbable, they'd be two to zero right now 123 00:06:39,519 --> 00:06:43,519 and maybe even a bigger favorite, which is where it opened, 124 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:45,879 you know. So it made sense because again, that was 125 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:49,199 that point flip game against Buffalo that they were so 126 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:52,680 heavily favored to win with minutes remaining. With that said, 127 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:56,759 I still have Baltimore as the highest power rated team 128 00:06:56,839 --> 00:07:00,720 in the NFL. I repeat right now, Power rating wise, 129 00:07:01,439 --> 00:07:05,839 Baltimore's the top, but fortunately Detroit's right there. They're a 130 00:07:05,879 --> 00:07:09,600 top five team. Most I think don't won't look at 131 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:10,959 it that way. You know, they see a one in 132 00:07:11,079 --> 00:07:13,920 one Baltimore team, you see a one in one Detroit team, 133 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:16,519 and both are in the top five. Again, we're talking 134 00:07:16,639 --> 00:07:21,879 power rating here, and I just think it's a little 135 00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:25,600 bit too high when you look at how Detroit is 136 00:07:25,639 --> 00:07:27,879 coming off of that good game last week. Like listen, 137 00:07:27,959 --> 00:07:30,920 their first week of the season, there was a lot 138 00:07:30,959 --> 00:07:34,160 of Green Bay love. It kind of made sense. New 139 00:07:34,199 --> 00:07:37,519 offensive coordinator, new defensive coordinator. But we saw from Detroit 140 00:07:37,639 --> 00:07:40,560 last week they're just as loaded as they come offensively 141 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:44,000 and defensively, and they're going up against a Baltimore team 142 00:07:44,319 --> 00:07:47,279 where on the offensive side of the ball they pretty 143 00:07:47,319 --> 00:07:50,319 much were perfect last week. It's hard to repeat that 144 00:07:50,399 --> 00:07:52,959 kind of performance. But it's on the defensive side of 145 00:07:52,959 --> 00:07:55,199 the ball that we really get the advantages for Detroit 146 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:59,680 because Baltimore's banged up. They brought in Alexander and a 147 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:02,639 Louse in the secondary to try to, you know, bolster 148 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:05,759 it a little bit, but still they got a lot 149 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:09,199 of injuries on the defensive side of the Bolt and 150 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:12,240 against an offense like Detroit, that's gonna be problems. I 151 00:08:12,279 --> 00:08:15,399 also think the total is a little bit too high. 152 00:08:15,519 --> 00:08:18,279 It's continuing to climb. That's why I haven't pounced on 153 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:22,199 the under yet. But I just think once you get 154 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:25,600 over that fifty three and uprange, it's got to be 155 00:08:25,639 --> 00:08:29,199 almost a perfect game, like any Any stoppages or long 156 00:08:29,319 --> 00:08:32,799 drives makes it very difficult. So I lean under. But 157 00:08:32,799 --> 00:08:35,320 we're gonna go with Detroit plus the four and a 158 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:37,960 half or five shot for the best number because there's 159 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:41,600 definitely fines available, and sprinkle that money line. Detroit may 160 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:43,639 come out two and one after this game, all. 161 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:46,159 Speaker 1: Right, I lean to that side, VR, So I'm happy 162 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:48,639 to hear you agree. We're gonna get right into this 163 00:08:48,799 --> 00:08:50,360 Steam report up next. 164 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:51,159 Speaker 2: Make sure you guys have. 165 00:08:51,159 --> 00:08:55,080 Speaker 1: Your Odds Logic screens open Odds Logic backslash Ace gets 166 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:58,879 you a free week of service, so pen and paper 167 00:08:58,919 --> 00:09:00,159 ready because it goes quick. 168 00:09:00,799 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 2: I'm gonna throw a little curveball though. This week. 169 00:09:03,039 --> 00:09:06,919 Speaker 1: We have one, two, three, four, five, six teaser spots, 170 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:08,600 and I know you usually go over this with Ariel 171 00:09:08,919 --> 00:09:11,039 on Sundays with Last Call. By the way, VR will 172 00:09:11,039 --> 00:09:13,600 be joining me this Sunday on last call while Harriel 173 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:16,840 celebrates her birthday. But I want to kind of talk 174 00:09:16,879 --> 00:09:19,120 about what we should be looking for and why you 175 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:22,000 think people should be waiting until Sunday to bet some 176 00:09:22,039 --> 00:09:22,919 of these teasers. 177 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 5: Yeah, and it sounds counterproductive because again, when you're trying 178 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:29,399 to beat the sports betting market, you want to get 179 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,840 out ahead of it. You want closing line value. We 180 00:09:32,919 --> 00:09:35,840 know historically, if you can do that over and over, 181 00:09:35,879 --> 00:09:39,159 your mathematical certainty to turn a profit. So why wait 182 00:09:39,879 --> 00:09:42,799 on teasers? Well, the reason for that is because I 183 00:09:42,879 --> 00:09:45,840 want the market to be as efficient as possible. When 184 00:09:46,039 --> 00:09:49,320 it's efficient, that means the higher probability that the game's 185 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:52,279 going to land near the point spread. That's how you 186 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:55,519 cash a teaser. So for me, I like the wait 187 00:09:55,639 --> 00:09:59,559 till later. Let the market kind of figure itself out, 188 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:01,519 Let all the sharp money get in there, let the 189 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:04,960 books put out that closing number that they think is 190 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:08,279 unbeatable more or less at eleven to ten, and then 191 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:10,360 that's when I want to get involved, and I just 192 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:13,879 want to look to t's those numbers. The team to 193 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:16,919 me becomes irrelevant. In fact, last week we cashed the 194 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:20,000 teaser and I was opposite a team that I like 195 00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:22,759 because the number made sense. It didn't matter about the 196 00:10:22,799 --> 00:10:26,240 handicap or not handicapping the matchup. We're handicapping the number, 197 00:10:26,639 --> 00:10:29,399 and what we're doing is looking for games that allow 198 00:10:29,519 --> 00:10:33,320 us to go through three, six and seven. That's it. 199 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:38,080 So we're looking the t's dogs up to seven and 200 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:40,399 a half, eight or eight and a half, and we're 201 00:10:40,399 --> 00:10:43,759 looking to t's favorites down to minus one and a 202 00:10:43,799 --> 00:10:46,120 half two or two and a half. It really is 203 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:51,840 that simple. You want to improve your results, look for 204 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:56,159 lower totals because again, the lower the total, the less 205 00:10:56,159 --> 00:10:59,840 points expected, less points expected, more each point's worth, and 206 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:03,600 that's when your teaser becomes most advantageous. So you want 207 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,720 to look at those matchups where the total is lower, 208 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:09,519 and more importantly, even if it's a higher total, you 209 00:11:09,519 --> 00:11:11,080 want to look at the line. 210 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:12,000 Speaker 4: Movement towards the under. 211 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 5: You don't want games that are being steamed over high 212 00:11:14,799 --> 00:11:17,200 totals that are getting steamed over. That's why we don't 213 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:20,200 tease college football too much variance in scoring. So if 214 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:22,840 you stick to those few rules and don't lay more 215 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:26,240 than minus one twenty five, you'll make some money betting teasers. 216 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:26,559 Speaker 4: This year. 217 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:28,879 Speaker 5: If you're laying one thirties one to thirty fives, don't 218 00:11:28,879 --> 00:11:31,519 do it. You're taking the worst of it. It's negative 219 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:34,639 BV and you're better off just laying eleven to ten 220 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:37,240 and straight betting it. You're not getting any added value 221 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:38,480 by using the teaser. 222 00:11:39,279 --> 00:11:42,080 Speaker 1: I asked that question because last week it came from 223 00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:45,480 the comments section. So guys, jump in the comments, ask 224 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:48,120 some questions and we'll get them answered. I love you 225 00:11:48,159 --> 00:11:51,159 guys for hitting that like button, always hitting subscribe, because 226 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:53,840 that's how we keep things going here at Wager Talks, 227 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:57,320 so we can provide you all of the free information. Yes, 228 00:11:57,399 --> 00:12:00,200 we are number one in the world for that are 229 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:03,200 speaking of information. I hear that steam was still going, 230 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:05,759 and that means yeah, this week's steam before it. 231 00:12:06,159 --> 00:12:09,279 Speaker 5: Indeed, and again narrowing down that the ones that don't 232 00:12:09,279 --> 00:12:14,919 feel very confident are legit. We won't get no manipulation 233 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:19,279 or middle attempts. So so far, so good. NFL is 234 00:12:19,279 --> 00:12:22,080 starting off good. College football has started off good. If 235 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:24,440 you like money, you know what to do. Start off 236 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:28,360 with four fifty one Indianapolis. The look ahead was minus two. 237 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:31,559 Then they brought out the three that got hit up 238 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:34,840 the minus one twenty. Pay attention to the look aheads. 239 00:12:34,879 --> 00:12:37,720 The limits are low, okay, So when you look at 240 00:12:37,759 --> 00:12:39,720 your Odds logic screen or at the very least your 241 00:12:39,759 --> 00:12:42,159 wager talk free on screen, you're going to see some 242 00:12:42,399 --> 00:12:44,840 big movements. But you want to see when those that 243 00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:47,480 initial move happened, because a lot of time it's a 244 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:52,039 jump from the look aheadline to where they open it 245 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:55,519 for the new week, and then it's what it does 246 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:59,240 after that that truly matters. Go to four fifty three Atlanta, 247 00:12:59,399 --> 00:13:01,879 the look ahead was minus two and a half and three, 248 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:04,320 and then they put out the four and a half 249 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:06,919 and that got hit until you saw a little TakeBack 250 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:10,039 on Carolina at plus six. So you have Atlanta minus 251 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:12,519 three and four and a half and Carolina plus six 252 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:15,240 four to fifty five Las Vegas look ahead at plus 253 00:13:15,279 --> 00:13:17,519 six and a half and plus six they brought out 254 00:13:17,519 --> 00:13:19,399 the five and a half that got hit as well, 255 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:22,720 and under forty seven and a half. When they hit 256 00:13:22,759 --> 00:13:24,679 the look ahead at under forty seven and a half, 257 00:13:24,799 --> 00:13:27,480 books went immediately to forty four and a half. So 258 00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:29,960 it looks like a big three point movement, but it 259 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:33,039 took maybe one or two limit bets max to move 260 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:36,200 three straight points, So it wasn't like it's a huge 261 00:13:36,519 --> 00:13:39,039 move where a bunch of steam from multiple groups are 262 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:41,759 banging that under. That's not what happened there. Four sixty 263 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:45,399 Cincinnati and Minnesota look ahead under forty seven and forty 264 00:13:45,399 --> 00:13:47,679 six and a half, and then they brought out forty 265 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:50,399 three and that got steamed under again and forty two 266 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:52,080 and a half. Those are the ones you want to 267 00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:54,279 pay a lot of attention to, the ones that get 268 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:56,879 followed through, like we saw in baseball with the overnights. 269 00:13:56,919 --> 00:13:59,840 And then the next day four seventy three Dallas Chicago 270 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:02,639 over forty six to forty eight and a half. That 271 00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:04,879 was the look ahead. They brought out the forty nine 272 00:14:04,919 --> 00:14:06,600 that got hit. They hit the forty nine and a half, 273 00:14:06,639 --> 00:14:08,759 but then they hit the fifty as well. True steam 274 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:12,559 over Dallas Chicago. Finally Detroit, which we touched on Sunday 275 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:14,399 Night Football, they took the six and a half and 276 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:16,279 six on the look ahead, then took the five and 277 00:14:16,279 --> 00:14:19,200 a half as well. Once the confirmation on the injured 278 00:14:19,279 --> 00:14:24,279 side defensive side of the ball for the Baltimore Ravens. 279 00:14:24,279 --> 00:14:26,639 So that's what we're looking at this early in the 280 00:14:26,639 --> 00:14:30,000 week for NFL again the steam rooms and leading into 281 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:32,840 kickoff on Sunday, so we'll get a lot of good 282 00:14:32,919 --> 00:14:35,480 late information as well. Join us each and every week 283 00:14:35,559 --> 00:14:39,200 for that waitstalk dot com. Thank you all. 284 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 1: Right, guys, I have sad news because our barking dogs 285 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:44,240 would have swept last week, but I. 286 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:45,960 Speaker 2: Gave out the Jacksonville Jaguars. 287 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:48,320 Speaker 1: So that was a little painful, just gonna throw that 288 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:50,679 out there. But this week we're going to go even 289 00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:54,799 more painful, Marco, because my dog is just absolute and 290 00:14:54,879 --> 00:14:55,840 utterly repulsive. 291 00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 2: Yours is a little bit more palatable. 292 00:14:59,519 --> 00:15:03,039 Speaker 1: Well, but tell me why you think Carolina has a 293 00:15:03,039 --> 00:15:04,440 shot to beat Atlanta this week. 294 00:15:05,399 --> 00:15:08,039 Speaker 3: Well, Carolina was a client play for me last week, 295 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:10,440 and I'll take that back door cover and I'm gonna 296 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:11,200 come right. 297 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 4: Back with Carolina again. 298 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:17,600 Speaker 3: And this is more as much as going against Atlanta 299 00:15:17,679 --> 00:15:20,759 as it is going with Carolina. Atlanta's in a horrible 300 00:15:20,799 --> 00:15:23,559 scheduling spot in my opinion. They're on the road for 301 00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:25,879 the second week in a row, and they're coming off 302 00:15:25,919 --> 00:15:30,639 a very satisfying win on Sunday Night football against Minnesota. Now, granted, 303 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:33,159 you can look at that game two ways and say, 304 00:15:33,519 --> 00:15:37,879 did Atlanta look good or did Minnesota just look god awful. Well, 305 00:15:38,559 --> 00:15:41,080 I'm not going to debate either side because both a 306 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:44,399 valid points. But you've got a young quarterback in Michael 307 00:15:44,399 --> 00:15:48,879 Pennix Junior, gotta win in prime time, and now he's 308 00:15:48,919 --> 00:15:53,600 going from a road underdog to a road favorite, and 309 00:15:53,639 --> 00:15:56,639 a sizable one at that. This is a young team 310 00:15:56,679 --> 00:15:58,600 with a second year quarterback. And when I say a 311 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:02,200 second year quarterback, he didn't start all last year. He 312 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:04,679 got some starts at the end of the season. So 313 00:16:04,799 --> 00:16:07,960 here's a quarterback that's only got a handful of starts 314 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:11,120 in the National Football League, and now you're asking him 315 00:16:11,399 --> 00:16:14,080 to not only win on the road, but win by 316 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:17,159 a margin. We're looking at a point spread of six here. 317 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:22,159 This is a division game, so yeah, Atlanta shouldn't really 318 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:28,240 look past Carolina. But Carolina hasn't done anything yet, and 319 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:31,039 this is their home opener, so you know you're going 320 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:34,720 to get a crowd and some excitement first home game. 321 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:38,799 I think their divisional home dog. All those angles that 322 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:40,960 we like to look for, and then I do look 323 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:43,960 at the performance that Michael Pennix had last week. He 324 00:16:44,039 --> 00:16:47,840 was thirteen of twenty one. Okay, it's a good percentage, 325 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:50,279 but it was only for one hundred and eight yards. 326 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:53,480 It was a lot of dinking and dunkin. I'm not 327 00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:56,960 sold on Atlanta yet, and this is a team that 328 00:16:57,039 --> 00:17:00,159 I still have question marks about their defense. And I 329 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:03,200 go back to my first statement, was it Atlanta looking 330 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:07,599 good or Minnesota just horrible? JJ McCarthy look bad then 331 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:11,599 got hurt. This is just a bad performance and I 332 00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:15,119 just don't agree with the move that we've seen in 333 00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:18,720 this game. I'm gonna take the value with Carolina. I 334 00:17:18,759 --> 00:17:21,480 think this one goes right down to the wire. Call 335 00:17:21,519 --> 00:17:24,720 it Carolina twenty four twenty three. Give me the points 336 00:17:25,039 --> 00:17:26,799 in Carolina as my barking dog. 337 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:28,680 Speaker 1: All right, if you are a game that I have 338 00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:30,559 on my teaser list because I'm too big of a 339 00:17:30,599 --> 00:17:31,960 what's to take them out right? 340 00:17:32,079 --> 00:17:33,759 Speaker 2: But you're gonna take them out right? 341 00:17:34,079 --> 00:17:36,000 Speaker 1: And it's funny because I was gonna make a comment 342 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,480 about having such a small dog, but VR has been 343 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:40,680 giving out double digit wins on the College Football Show, 344 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:41,880 so I'm gonna let it slide. 345 00:17:42,279 --> 00:17:44,279 Speaker 5: Yeah, thank you. And I can't hit a money line. 346 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:46,440 I'm two and zero on NFL doggs, but I can't 347 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:48,839 get the money line, So I think this one unless 348 00:17:48,839 --> 00:17:51,720 it's a one point win. Hopefully we get there with 349 00:17:51,759 --> 00:17:55,119 the Denver Broncos and I'm fading my LA Chargers. That's 350 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:58,480 my future. The Chargers are my team in twenty twenty five. 351 00:17:58,839 --> 00:18:03,079 So again, I can't be biased because I just got 352 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:05,279 to go week by week and right now, I just 353 00:18:05,319 --> 00:18:10,240 think this sets up nicely for the Denver Broncos, who 354 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:12,400 are finally in the dog role. This is a team 355 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:14,960 that was favored in both of their games. They had 356 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:21,119 that really tough loss against Indianapolis, or they'd be sitting 357 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:23,240 at to and zero as well, and who knows what 358 00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:25,839 this line would be then. I mean, that was one 359 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:29,440 of those bad beats for the Denver Broncos. But here's 360 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:32,799 the bottom line. I think they have the defense to 361 00:18:32,839 --> 00:18:38,720 not allow Justin Ever to have that big explosive plays, 362 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:43,119 those damaging bombs where they're stretching the field on Denver. 363 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:48,480 As long as they're forcing the Chargers to drive down 364 00:18:48,519 --> 00:18:51,000 the football field and take some time off the clock, 365 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:53,680 Denver's going to be just fine because I think on 366 00:18:53,799 --> 00:18:56,039 the offensive side of the ball, that's what they're gonna do. 367 00:18:56,079 --> 00:18:59,319 Denver's going to look to control the clock, control the 368 00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:03,799 tempo and keep Justin Aber on the side lines. And 369 00:19:03,839 --> 00:19:06,759 I think Denver set up nicely defensively to do that. 370 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:08,880 Don't look the last week's game with the Colts, the 371 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:12,400 way it got out just became one of those ugly games. 372 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:16,440 And again they've gotten even a little bit unlucky. You've 373 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:18,759 seen the Chargers gotten lucky. Not only have they been 374 00:19:18,759 --> 00:19:22,680 getting turnovers, but they've been able to maximize on those turnovers. 375 00:19:22,759 --> 00:19:25,519 Or with the Denver they've been a little bit unlucky. 376 00:19:25,519 --> 00:19:27,440 Even when they've gotten the turnovers, they haven't been able 377 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:30,440 to do much with it. And again that the red 378 00:19:30,519 --> 00:19:34,119 zone efficiency for Denver's there, which I like. If they 379 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:38,359 could keep the Chargers to field goals instead of touchdowns 380 00:19:38,599 --> 00:19:42,039 on some of those drives, they'll stay in the game. 381 00:19:42,079 --> 00:19:45,279 The key is stay in the game with a chance 382 00:19:45,319 --> 00:19:48,440 to win it late, and I think Denver can do that. Again, 383 00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:51,880 they had the kind of defense, and I think offensively 384 00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:56,440 they're balanced enough to sustain some drives and keep that 385 00:19:56,839 --> 00:20:00,519 Charger offense on the sidelines. Again, Chargers are starting to 386 00:20:00,519 --> 00:20:04,839 become that sexy team, which I don't like. After beating 387 00:20:05,319 --> 00:20:09,480 you know, the Chiefs on that primetime season opener, and 388 00:20:09,559 --> 00:20:13,880 they got it done again last week, obviously against the 389 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:19,039 Raiders on Monday Night, so primetime, in primetime recency bias. 390 00:20:19,079 --> 00:20:20,559 If we've ever seen it, it's going to be on 391 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:23,759 the Chargers again. They win on Monday Night Football as 392 00:20:23,759 --> 00:20:26,559 three point dogs, they cover against the Raiders as three 393 00:20:26,599 --> 00:20:29,559 and a half point favorites. Now at home, give the 394 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:32,920 give me the Broncos sprinkle and make sure you pay 395 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:35,880 attention to that line on Sunday, because if it isn't 396 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,319 that two and a half, we definitely definitely want to 397 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:41,400 use it on a teaser. At three obviously we can't 398 00:20:41,519 --> 00:20:43,480 use it, but at two and a half, even with 399 00:20:43,599 --> 00:20:45,720 the over being steamed from forty three and a half 400 00:20:45,759 --> 00:20:48,279 to forty five and a half, I would still look 401 00:20:48,319 --> 00:20:51,680 to tease the Denver Broncos up to eight and a half. 402 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,240 If you can get two and a half on Sunday. 403 00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:56,799 Speaker 1: All right, that will be on my teaser list. Well, 404 00:20:56,880 --> 00:20:58,880 who am I kidding? It's already there, all right, guys. 405 00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:01,400 Speaker 2: A tweet that I saw I would call. 406 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 1: It semi viral, at least in the sports betting world 407 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:06,079 was NFL favorites of four and a half points are 408 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,680 twelve to zero straight up the season dating back to 409 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:12,920 Week eleven of last year, fifty two and eight straight up. 410 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:16,640 That is almost eighty seven percent. The NFL favorites have 411 00:21:16,759 --> 00:21:19,519 been crushing, so I could see why you guys are 412 00:21:19,519 --> 00:21:22,160 gonna think I'm crazy for giving out this play. But 413 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:24,680 the artist mentioned teams that are starting to get real sexy, 414 00:21:25,079 --> 00:21:28,640 and none other than the Green Bay Packers look the sexiest. 415 00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:32,559 In my opinion, everybody's ready to say, Okay, here's this team, 416 00:21:33,079 --> 00:21:35,839 give them the representation out of the NFC. But I 417 00:21:35,839 --> 00:21:38,599 think everybody needs to pump the brakes. This is still 418 00:21:38,599 --> 00:21:42,599 the youngest team in the NFL. This is still a 419 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:46,720 Green Bay team who's missing two offensive linemen, and remember 420 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:49,839 Micah Parsons still not playing full time snaps there on defense. 421 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:55,920 I know the Cleveland Browns looked awful last week versus 422 00:21:56,079 --> 00:21:58,559 the Ravens, but if you just are looking at the 423 00:21:58,599 --> 00:22:01,519 box score and not the game, I think you're kind 424 00:22:01,519 --> 00:22:02,119 of missing it. 425 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:04,920 Speaker 2: I know it's tough to stomach the Browns here in the. 426 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:10,440 Speaker 1: Spot, but big home underdogs in the first three weeks 427 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:13,079 of the season, I mean, you're getting at least six 428 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:15,799 points or more eighteen one and two against the spread, 429 00:22:15,839 --> 00:22:17,160 over the last three seasons. 430 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 2: I'm just gonna say it. 431 00:22:18,759 --> 00:22:20,559 Speaker 1: I was talking to my boyfriend last night, who is 432 00:22:20,559 --> 00:22:22,359 a green Bay Packers fan, and yeah, I got a 433 00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:25,480 Denver Broncos helmet behind me, but I have watched more Green. 434 00:22:25,319 --> 00:22:27,799 Speaker 2: Pack green Bay Packers games in the last decade. 435 00:22:28,279 --> 00:22:31,440 Speaker 1: Then I cared to admit. He said, this is a 436 00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:34,559 game where Green Bay we'll find a way to lose it. 437 00:22:34,599 --> 00:22:36,000 And I looked at it, and I said, God, it 438 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:38,200 looks so easy to tease green Bay. And then I 439 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:39,480 looked at a scheduling spot. 440 00:22:39,759 --> 00:22:40,359 Speaker 2: Oh, that's right. 441 00:22:40,519 --> 00:22:44,079 Speaker 1: They play the Cardinals on Thursday night football. Not that 442 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,720 they have some big time rivalry, but on a short week, 443 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,079 just got to go into Cleveland and get the win. Right, 444 00:22:50,279 --> 00:22:54,119 looks a little fishy. I know it's gross, it's ugly, 445 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,960 but at least take the points here with the Cleveland Browns. 446 00:22:57,000 --> 00:23:01,000 Be careful in those teasers, and if you're feeling feisty 447 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,279 like me, you can sprinkle just a little bit on 448 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:09,720 that money line, all right. Marco di'angelo the Deli has 449 00:23:09,759 --> 00:23:12,960 been absolutely crushing. If you guys have been missing his 450 00:23:13,039 --> 00:23:15,960 college football Deli games, you guys can head over to 451 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,519 the Wager Talking YouTube channel and check out that one 452 00:23:18,559 --> 00:23:19,079 as well. 453 00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:22,839 Speaker 2: Marco. You also do a standalone deli video. 454 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:24,799 Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, Kelly. 455 00:23:24,839 --> 00:23:27,720 Speaker 3: We do it every week and we're off to a 456 00:23:27,759 --> 00:23:31,200 great start. We started this last year season two and 457 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,599 response has been great. So hey, bet on at Nation, 458 00:23:34,799 --> 00:23:37,440 head on over. We put it out on Thursday night. 459 00:23:37,559 --> 00:23:41,720 Yet more sandwich spots, more trap games seven and three 460 00:23:41,799 --> 00:23:45,119 so far for the two episodes. I'll take seventy percent 461 00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,680 all year and it's free and you get to look 462 00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:51,119 at me with that goofy hat in the deli, So 463 00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:54,519 what could be better? Now with the deli? This week, 464 00:23:55,039 --> 00:23:57,240 we're gonna go to a team and you know what, 465 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,240 you look at this game and you'll look get the 466 00:24:00,319 --> 00:24:04,319 knee jerk reaction. You got Chicago and you got Dallas. Now, 467 00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:07,680 I know, Telly, you were sweat And what was the 468 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:11,200 over under on a number of f bombs that you 469 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:15,079 dropped during that Dallas Giants game last week? It had 470 00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:17,519 to be high and I know you went over the 471 00:24:17,559 --> 00:24:20,319 total with that one, but people. 472 00:24:20,079 --> 00:24:22,519 Speaker 4: Look at it. Dallas went up and down the field. 473 00:24:22,599 --> 00:24:25,079 Speaker 3: That's what we know is going to happen with this 474 00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:29,000 Dallas offense when they are healthy. But we also saw 475 00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:32,119 what we knew was going to happen as well. They're 476 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,400 not going to be able to stop teams. Russell Wilson 477 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:41,039 had a career game against this Dallas cowboy defense. And 478 00:24:41,279 --> 00:24:43,920 Russell Wilson's been in the league a long time and 479 00:24:44,039 --> 00:24:49,119 most people the consensus is that he's pretty much washed up. 480 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,519 He threw for over four hundred yards against this defense 481 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:56,759 last week. Chicago's got more weapons. Yeah, I know Caleb 482 00:24:56,759 --> 00:25:00,799 Williams has not looked good so far, but I think 483 00:25:00,839 --> 00:25:04,880 he gets healthy this week against this defense. I'm gonna 484 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:09,240 go ahead and take the Chicago Bears to get right. 485 00:25:09,279 --> 00:25:13,640 And let's be honest. That score last week is a 486 00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:17,920 little bit misleading because Detroit put up fifty two points 487 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,640 on him. That was a message. Dan Campbell took it 488 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:25,440 personal after Week one when he got just dominated by 489 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:29,720 the Packers. Man, everybody, all the pundits. The narrative out 490 00:25:29,759 --> 00:25:33,319 there was, oh, the Lions are not the same team. 491 00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:37,920 Ben Johnson's gone. He was the mastermind of that offense. 492 00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:39,880 Speaker 4: Well, he was still. 493 00:25:39,599 --> 00:25:42,960 Speaker 3: Throwing the football in the fourth quarter against his former 494 00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:46,960 offensive coordinator last week and put up fifty two points. 495 00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:49,240 I don't think Dallas is going to have that kind 496 00:25:49,279 --> 00:25:53,799 of success this week against the Bears and talk about 497 00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:59,640 sandwich spots Chicago, or we've got Dallas coming off that 498 00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:03,759 game last week and they've got a big game going 499 00:26:04,079 --> 00:26:08,000 next week. This is a spot where I'm gonna go 500 00:26:08,039 --> 00:26:13,160 ahead and take Chicago. Campbell, like I said last week, 501 00:26:13,279 --> 00:26:16,519 ran up the offense on them, makes them look worse 502 00:26:16,559 --> 00:26:19,640 than they are. To me, this line should be higher, 503 00:26:20,319 --> 00:26:23,359 but because of one team winning in a high scoring 504 00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:26,559 game and the other team giving up fifty two points, 505 00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:30,279 the market is shaded towards the Cowboys and it's giving 506 00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:36,200 us value. Give me Chicago this week as the Bears 507 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,880 and Caleb Williams get into the win column for the 508 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:41,920 first time, Give me the Bears. 509 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:46,279 Speaker 1: Oh, that one is a perplexing line to say the least. 510 00:26:46,319 --> 00:26:50,000 Marco I saw so many tweets going wait, what what what? Well, 511 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,680 now we might know why the Bears were marched out 512 00:26:52,799 --> 00:26:56,480 as favorites. Speaking of favorites, we have our favorite bets 513 00:26:56,480 --> 00:27:01,240 coming up right up? How about now, dr before you 514 00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:04,599 give out your best bet for this week in the NFL, 515 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,440 please let everybody know what you've got going on over 516 00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:08,880 at wager talk dot com. 517 00:27:09,039 --> 00:27:11,680 Speaker 5: Oh, yeah, right now, I have my college football package 518 00:27:11,759 --> 00:27:15,839 up for Saturday. Number one in college football in twenty 519 00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:19,200 twenty five. We've won every single week. I know I 520 00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:22,200 lost my five percent last week, but oh not much 521 00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:27,279 difference between our fours and fives again. Bottom line, that 522 00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:30,599 package is up and then someday my NFL package is 523 00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,400 going up. Today with a five percent first five percent 524 00:27:33,839 --> 00:27:37,680 of the twenty twenty five NFL season, currently number one 525 00:27:38,039 --> 00:27:41,519 in NFL for the regular season as well, So combined 526 00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:43,680 NFL and college football, it's been that kind of season. 527 00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:47,119 If you like money, you know what to do. I'm 528 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:48,960 just going to keep continue to crush it, and I 529 00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:51,960 got a best bet for you. I absolutely love the 530 00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:55,599 New England Patriots this week over to Steelers. I want 531 00:27:55,599 --> 00:27:58,200 to hear Marco's opinion on that hopefully could confirm it 532 00:27:58,279 --> 00:28:01,400 for me. Bottom line is, Pittsburgh defense is just too 533 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:06,279 easy to score. On the fact that Justin Fields and 534 00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:11,880 Sam Darnold were able to destroy this defense of the 535 00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,880 Pittsburgh Steelers to where they're right now going into this week, 536 00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:20,279 they're twenty six in success rate allowed, in twenty eight 537 00:28:20,759 --> 00:28:26,400 in passing success rate allowed. There's no higher correlation as 538 00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:31,000 far as a stat goes than passing success rate to 539 00:28:31,279 --> 00:28:34,240 covering point spreads in the NFL, and you're looking at 540 00:28:34,279 --> 00:28:37,920 one of the worst teams at that in the Pittsburgh Steelers. 541 00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,000 I think you're going to have a New England offense 542 00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:44,200 that has success and a New England team that's in 543 00:28:44,359 --> 00:28:46,960 dire need of winning at home. They only won two 544 00:28:47,039 --> 00:28:49,720 home games last year, they won one home game the 545 00:28:49,799 --> 00:28:52,160 year before that. There's a lot of pressure on them 546 00:28:52,519 --> 00:28:55,640 to win football games at home. And income that the 547 00:28:55,759 --> 00:29:01,119 Pittsburgh Steelers that are definitely a beatable team. Rogers looked 548 00:29:01,119 --> 00:29:04,279 great in Week one, but in Week two not so much. 549 00:29:04,519 --> 00:29:07,559 And if this is a team that is forced to 550 00:29:07,599 --> 00:29:10,359 be one dimensional to where Rogers has to get it 551 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:15,880 done at that age, if you could bring pressure, they're 552 00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:17,720 gonna have a problem. And if there's one thing New 553 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:22,279 England edge rushers can do is give pressure, bring pressure, 554 00:29:22,799 --> 00:29:24,720 and I think they're going to create problems for that 555 00:29:24,799 --> 00:29:28,000 offensive line of at Pittsburgh Steelers. And you add to 556 00:29:28,079 --> 00:29:32,000 that the injuries that the Steelers are already dealing with 557 00:29:32,119 --> 00:29:35,160 on the defensive side of the football. I love New 558 00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:38,680 England in this spot. Wrong team was favored obviously now 559 00:29:38,759 --> 00:29:41,599 to one point don't really matter, but I really think 560 00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,160 New England should be about one and a half two 561 00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:47,279 point favorite in this game. Wouldn't be surprised if I 562 00:29:47,279 --> 00:29:49,359 would have seen it bet up the three. So give 563 00:29:49,359 --> 00:29:52,400 me the Patriots best bet for this week and see 564 00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:54,720 if we could improve on our four and two in 565 00:29:54,799 --> 00:29:55,400 the NFL. 566 00:29:55,839 --> 00:29:57,839 Speaker 1: Yeah, I like the Patriots this week as well, but 567 00:29:57,920 --> 00:29:59,720 again I'm probably gonna miss out and put them in 568 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:02,880 a tea Marco. That is the name of the NFL 569 00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:06,839 season for me has been the teasers. You, on the 570 00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:09,720 other hand, have been crushing some of these small favorites. 571 00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:11,559 Before you get into your best bet for this week, 572 00:30:11,599 --> 00:30:14,160 can you tell everybody what is going on this weekend 573 00:30:14,279 --> 00:30:15,720 at wager talk dot com. 574 00:30:16,359 --> 00:30:17,880 Speaker 4: Well, we're rolling it back, Kelly. 575 00:30:18,079 --> 00:30:21,400 Speaker 3: Weekend Warrior were such a success last week, we're bringing 576 00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,400 it back this week. Forty nine dollars. You can get 577 00:30:24,799 --> 00:30:30,200 your favorite handicapper Saturday and Sunday all of their football selections, 578 00:30:30,279 --> 00:30:33,200 and then if they have a Monday night selection, you'll 579 00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:35,079 get that as a free bonus as well, all for 580 00:30:35,079 --> 00:30:37,680 forty nine dollars. Last week, I went three and one 581 00:30:37,799 --> 00:30:41,279 in college football, two to zero with our top plays. 582 00:30:41,559 --> 00:30:44,920 We have the four percent five percent play. Last Saturday, 583 00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:49,799 the five percent play was North Texas. They were minus six. 584 00:30:50,079 --> 00:30:54,680 They win fifty nine to ten. Love those rocking chair winners. 585 00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:57,240 That was fun last week and that brings my record 586 00:30:57,279 --> 00:31:01,519 on five percent plays to thirty two and thirteen going 587 00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:06,480 back to February of twenty twenty four. Long period there. 588 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:08,920 I don't release a ton of these five percent plays. 589 00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:11,400 When we do we win them. We're gonna have another 590 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:15,519 one this week. Get the Weekend Warrior, you won't miss out. 591 00:31:16,119 --> 00:31:21,039 Now for this week, Kelly, for my best bet. We 592 00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:24,319 are looking at the Minnesota Vikings. They're gonna be playing 593 00:31:24,359 --> 00:31:27,559 the Cincinnati Bengals, and we've got a unique situation here. 594 00:31:28,279 --> 00:31:32,880 We've got two backup quarterbacks taken over. Cincinnati lost Joe 595 00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:36,240 Burrow last week to injury. He's gonna be out at 596 00:31:36,359 --> 00:31:41,839 least three months, and the Minnesota Vikings lost JJ McCarthy 597 00:31:42,599 --> 00:31:46,400 to injury. Now I'm gonna point out the obvious. You're 598 00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:51,200 losing JJ McCarthy, who is an unproven commodity and hasn't 599 00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:56,279 looked good so far in his two starts, against losing 600 00:31:56,359 --> 00:32:01,799 an MVP candidate in Joe Burrow Cincinnati definitely got the 601 00:32:01,839 --> 00:32:05,319 worst of the injuries between the two quarterbacks. And let's 602 00:32:05,319 --> 00:32:08,680 be honest, this might actually be a blessing for Minnesota. 603 00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:12,759 Remember last year when McCarthy got hurt in preseason, they 604 00:32:12,799 --> 00:32:16,160 handed the reins over to Sam Darnold. Would Sam Darnold 605 00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:20,359 do in this Minnesota Viking offense? He only proceeded to 606 00:32:20,359 --> 00:32:23,480 have the best year of his career in comes Carson Wentz. 607 00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:26,920 Never been a big fan of Carson Wentz ever since 608 00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:31,519 he had that rookie season and then got hurt, missed 609 00:32:31,519 --> 00:32:34,880 the playoffs, and Nick Foles took over in Philadelphia. He's 610 00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:38,039 bounced around the league, but he is a veteran quarterback 611 00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:41,559 that has starts under his belt. And I'm going to 612 00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:46,839 trust the process and trust the coaching here with Minnesota 613 00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:49,079 and think that it's going to be plug and play 614 00:32:49,119 --> 00:32:52,680 with the quarterback. But where there is a big difference 615 00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:55,160 in these two teams, that's on the defensive side of 616 00:32:55,160 --> 00:33:00,200 the football. Minnesota is an elite defense, Cincinnati is not. 617 00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:03,119 I'm gonna go ahead play the injured player card. We 618 00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:05,759 could go either way with that injured player card, but 619 00:33:06,079 --> 00:33:06,880 I'm gonna. 620 00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:08,400 Speaker 4: Go with the Minnesota Vikings. 621 00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:12,000 Speaker 3: And Carson Wentz difference being as I said, the defense, 622 00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,519 let's go ahead lay the three, And this is one 623 00:33:14,559 --> 00:33:16,960 of those ones where I'm gonna go ahead. I'm gonna 624 00:33:17,039 --> 00:33:20,039 lay the three now. I'm not gonna wait because we 625 00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:23,559 could see this one pop to three and a half 626 00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:25,200 come Sunday. 627 00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:28,960 Speaker 4: Get it now at the three? Whoo? 628 00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:33,160 Speaker 1: Trying to gather my strength here to talk about this 629 00:33:33,279 --> 00:33:35,640 game because it is not a game that I wanted 630 00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:37,720 to talk about, but it was a game that I 631 00:33:37,759 --> 00:33:39,799 wanted to use in Survivor, and so I had to 632 00:33:39,839 --> 00:33:42,440 do a deep dive. So I called our friends over 633 00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:44,000 at the gold Sheet and I said, all right, guys, 634 00:33:44,839 --> 00:33:48,319 why should I not take Seattle against this horrible New 635 00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:52,599 Orleans team? New Orleans had opportunities to not only cover 636 00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:56,720 but win their last two games, yet fell short. Spencer 637 00:33:56,839 --> 00:34:01,000 Rattler oh and eight as a starter Seahawks, this. 638 00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:03,119 Speaker 2: Is the best week to take them. 639 00:34:03,359 --> 00:34:03,880 Speaker 4: But is it? 640 00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:06,000 Speaker 2: After falling to the. 641 00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:07,599 Speaker 1: Forty nine Ers a week one, the Seahawks are just 642 00:34:07,839 --> 00:34:10,320 thirteen and twenty two against the spread here at home, 643 00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:14,559 they look very easy, similar to the Packers this week. 644 00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:18,840 To just put them in a teaser spot right ough, 645 00:34:19,519 --> 00:34:23,320 let's just be honest here. This one is a little misleading. 646 00:34:24,039 --> 00:34:27,480 I know, taking this Seattle Seahawks here at home seems 647 00:34:27,519 --> 00:34:28,519 like the right thing to do. 648 00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:31,760 Speaker 2: But Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler has been. 649 00:34:31,599 --> 00:34:35,679 Speaker 1: Making improvements week by week again could have beaten Seattle 650 00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:40,559 last week. Four of his final ten passes were dropped. 651 00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:45,320 He's like the Avery Johnson of the NFL. Since he's 652 00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:48,199 been a starting quarterback, he has the second highest. 653 00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:50,559 Speaker 2: Drop rate of all eligible quarterbacks. 654 00:34:51,159 --> 00:34:53,480 Speaker 1: I'm not sure the Saints are as bad as the 655 00:34:53,519 --> 00:34:57,320 final scorers indicate or the box scores indicate. And truth 656 00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,599 be told, I didn't watch you of those games. I 657 00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:02,639 want to save Seattle for this spot. I don't know 658 00:35:02,639 --> 00:35:04,400 if I can do it, Guys. I think I got 659 00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:06,840 to take the seven and a half here with New Orleans, 660 00:35:07,159 --> 00:35:09,880 and just a little word of the wise, be careful 661 00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:13,280 if you were using them in your survivor pools this week, 662 00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:16,599 they will be the most popular pick. All right, let's 663 00:35:16,599 --> 00:35:18,679 bring it back in the guys. Let's try to have 664 00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:21,000 a winning week. Oh wait, that's for me. I hope 665 00:35:21,039 --> 00:35:23,119 you guys have another winning week and we're gonna get 666 00:35:23,119 --> 00:35:26,320 back on track here over in the driver's seat. Good 667 00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:29,679 luck to everybody. Let's put up that recap graphic and 668 00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:30,920 I'll be sure to. 669 00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,639 Speaker 2: Check the comments sections. Love something, hate something. 670 00:35:33,679 --> 00:35:35,280 Speaker 1: You guys, let us know you have a question for 671 00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:38,480 Marco or VR and we will get it answered. All right, guys, 672 00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:40,320 And if you missed the college football edition of bet 673 00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:42,679 on It, it is right here, And of course we'll 674 00:35:42,679 --> 00:35:43,920 have that mega show up. 675 00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:46,599 Speaker 2: We'll have the Deli, we'll have Ralph with. 676 00:35:46,679 --> 00:35:49,559 Speaker 1: TNA, Wes Teddy with Stockwatch, and of course the College 677 00:35:49,559 --> 00:35:51,960 Football and NFL editions of bet on It. 678 00:35:52,039 --> 00:35:53,920 Speaker 2: Until next week. Let's bet on it