Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everyone. It's Monday morning. Hope everyone
had a fantastic weekend. It is time for a new
week of full court press, Rob Bino. We are like
officially on conference schedule time, right, Like all the all
the crazy games, crazy times day games, a lot of
those are done and and for the rest of the
year it's going to be kind of slow Monday, a
lot of Power Conference teams playing Tuesday, Big Slate Wednesday,
Big Slate Thursday, and then all of my little Northeast
schools playing on Friday. So uh, that's what you have
to look forward to going forward. A smaller slate today,
but still some big games to talk about. But first,
as people file in, Rob, how was how was your weekend?
Speaker 2: Weekend was good, Adam, weekend was good. We do a
college basketball show, so let's talk college basketball. Last three
really since December one, I went back just to track.
I don't always keep tracking my record far as plays
released to clients, but last thirty days number two over
at wager Talk overall, and since December one, actually number
two at wager Talk. So rolling right along here in
college hoop. However, yes, they put a little bit of
the brakes on it. I had probably the worst as
far as result goes, probably the worst result I've had
all season long, with playing Kennesaw State over their team
total against Delaware and not even getting sixty points, which
was a total surprise to me.
Speaker 3: And then I got hooked. I had seat in hall minus.
Speaker 2: Two and a half, win by two. And so those
were a couple of small plays yesterday. But other than that,
it's been really good for about six weeks now in
college hoops. So tonight I was looking earlier and it's
still your kind of board. You got a little IVY
League in here.
Speaker 3: I don't know that we're all that.
Speaker 2: You know, the Monday swack board that gets television coverage
on ESPN, right, usually a swack game on P and
U or something around their little south Land. So we
got stuff, even stuff to satisfy by you here, Southeastern
Louisiana on the board.
Speaker 1: Now, well, one of these days, when Bayou schedule works out,
we'll get him on a Monday show. I mean this
is right in his wheelhouse, south Land Swack. These these
types of teams. Reason I asked you know how you
were doing. I'm going to ask more about that on
the show. I know people want recap transparency, and we
have a co package now, so I feel like, you know,
we've got to talk about it and Rob. For the
first two months, I had to come on the show
and be like, man, I'm off to a terrible start
in college hoops. Nothing will go my way. And since
the first of the year, it's it started to turn
for me seven and two. Since January first, I've tweaked
some things or I'm looking for a very specific kind
of like subset to play. I wrote about it quite
a bit this weekend and it's worked out so far.
So seven and two, if you bought three day package,
it pretty much any day. Since we started offering it
on a daily basis, I think you've probably done okay,
and that is now up all the time three days
myself and Vino you get all the college hoop plays.
We're always gonna come on here every day and give
you as much information as we can on like six
or seven games. But as you guys know, even on
a night like this where there's not a massive slate,
there's still so many games to talk about, and you know,
we get into the weeds on this show, which is uh,
which is why I think people like to, you know,
to show up and talk hoops with us. We appreciate you, guys, Garth.
I see you right there, and I'm gonna get to
you after our feature game, Rob, which is a very
clear feature game tonight. H Columbus Ohio undefeated. Nebraska pulls
off that great win on Friday night to knockoff Michigan State.
Now they kind of come across the country, Rob, I
know that Ohio State. It's the spot, it's the spot
that betters are supposed to gravitate toward Ohio State. I
don't know that I want to do that. I like
this Nebraska team, and I think their priors might be
maybe a little low from just like kind of how
they came into the season having some injuries last year.
So it's like I'm very much torn here because my
eyes and my numbers from in season that the real
data that we have from this year say I should
be on Nebraska. But it's never easy to go in
conference on the road. They're heading to Columbus Nebraska, Ohio State.
How are you seeing this one?
Speaker 2: Yeah? And it's even harder to go in conference on
the road with a bullseye on your chest, right, Nebraska
all of a sudden as an undefeated walks in and
it's not just oh, here comes Nebraska. Now, it's like
here comes fifteen and o Nebraska. It's something to get
up for. Was interesting against Michigan State. Adam the court
storming by Nebraska. Happy to catch a little bit of
the postgame press conference where rink Mast actually said he
didn't not that he didn't appreciate it, but he was
kind of disappointed by the fact that Nebraska fans at
home feel the need to storm the court when they
win a big game. His point was, you know, this
team is good enough to win big games. We don't
need to storm the court like we're some bottom dweller anymore.
So maybe we could just sit in our seats and cheer.
Interesting change in uh, you know, belief of this squad.
And he you know, we talked about him Friday. It
was a friday they played Michigan State.
Speaker 3: I think it was when.
Speaker 2: You broadcast from the tunnel there from the runway.
Speaker 1: And yeah, yes.
Speaker 2: Maybe we'll get to that later. But he's one of
those guys in for Ohio State we've talked about. Christopher Tilley, right,
big center comes over from the WCC mostly a post player,
and how Maske can drag these guys out beyond the
three point arc can cut down some of your rebounding.
It's always an issue here for opposition. But I think
the bigger thing here for Nebraska is you just have
to defend and the arc against Ohio State, they want
to go quick. They shoot threes. The numbers that Bruce
Thornton is putting up for Ohio State are incredible as
far as shooting goes. I think I saw this morning
number seven in the country in true shooting percent and shoots,
the two shoots, the three shoots, free throws everything. Ohio
State nexcellent free throw shooting team. The situation, like you say,
it just screams Ohio State. But they've bet it so
hard at this point, it's a three and a half
point move from one to two and a half.
Speaker 3: It made me look at.
Speaker 2: The total, and what I came up with on total, obviously,
is you have two opposites Ohio State, three conference games,
three conference overs. Nebraska been trending to under for quite
some time, seven and one under the total in their
last date, So it's really a battle of contrast here.
If I had to you know I I would maybe
take a look at the Ohio State team total because
the away game. And the other thing to mention here
is that Nebraska one true road game all season long,
a lot of Neutrals, three or four Neutrals, all home.
All their good work's been done mostly at Pinnacle. The
one road game they went to Illinois. They won that
game eighty three eighty, which is high scoring. And that
made me think, well, maybe Ohio State can get to
their team total in this game. That number currently stands
at seventy eight and a half.
Speaker 3: I could see Ohio.
Speaker 2: State trying to force pace and maybe Nebraska keeping up.
But there's really nothing here, Adams that I'm thrilled to
run to the window with.
Speaker 3: But I think if.
Speaker 2: I had to, my play would be Ohio State team
total over.
Speaker 3: We'll see if.
Speaker 2: Nebraska can win another high scoring game. And I know,
common opponent wise, you know, you got one team that
beat Illinois and Illinois's home floy you got another team
that lost to Illinois. But I'll just wrap it up
by saying the three Ohio State losses, two of those
are by one point. I mean, it's not as bad
as it seems with Ohio State at this point.
Speaker 3: We'll see what goes on tonight.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's gonna in my opinion, it's it's
going to be entirely dependent on how Ohio State shoots
the ball from outside the three point arc and and
you know, really just probably fifteen feet in out. I mean,
you don't want to take a ton of mid range.
But Nebraska pretty solid rim defense. I think they're going
to be more inclined to give the three up in
this matchup. Now, Ohio State being at home, I think
that there's you know, if there was ever going to
be a game where they might be able to get
hot and hit some threes, it's it's probably a matchup
like this. You know, I was looking at obviously, you know,
Bruce Thornton being the you know, Thornton being the key.
I think you kind of have to think, you know,
twenty point nine points per game, that he would be
the key for Ohio State in any big game like this.
And you know, even though I don't think his game
necessarily is is to just kind of fire threes up.
You know, the couple of the couple of games that
he's really sort of had a volume shoot threes, was
you know, West Virginia went one for seven, had a
pretty good shooting night against Illinois six for nine from deep.
But you know, it's not like you want him to
just it's not like you want to just let him
you let him shoot from the perimeter. Forty five zero
point two percent for Thornton from three this year. To me,
this is kind of a high variance, Like this game
could go a lot of different ways. Nebraska, I think
Nebraska is probably the real deal. I I guess. I
I'm torn on Masks comments because at one point, I
love the pageantry of college basketball and I love that
that that fan base is like excited enough to do that.
I mentioned on Friday the Nebraska crowd against New Hampshire
sold the place out. I mean, they're like that, they
are like all in on that team this year. But Robbie,
I kind of agree, if you're favored in a game,
you probably shouldn't rush the court. Like that's just you know,
if you're the favorite in a game, you know there's
a like you probably should have won the game anyway.
That being said, like again, if Ohio State is hitting
the outside shot and they can really sort of like
draw Nebraska away from the rim a little bit. I
think there's a nice path the victory for them here.
Of course, you also have to add in the fact
that not only is Nebraska going on the road here,
but they're going on the road after a massive win
over an arguably bigger name. So I totally understand that
the letdown spot angle I just didn't have. There's just
not enough of an edge here to make me want
to lay two and a half with Ohio State. I
think if it was like a pick, I'd be more
inclined to maybe give Ohio State a shot. But I
just don't think necessarily think they're the better team than Nebraska.
Speaker 3: Just in general.
Speaker 1: I think this could just be a spot that's good
enough for them to sort of get up and over
at home here. So yeah, I'm with you. I guess
man slightest lean to Ohio State on the side, I
suppose as we as we talk it out, I feel
like I've talked myself more into the Ohio State side
then the Nebraska side. All right, Garth, this is that
this is an interesting one that had a bunch of
question marks on my notepad here, So let's get into this.
Thoughts on William and Mary Charleston Garth says, I lean
with the tribe eleven and one against the spread to
start the season. That's my guy. Brian Earle there taking
the taking Steve Merrill's William and Mary tribe and turning
them into a contender Rob in the Coastal his second year.
We had him at Cornell up here in central New
York for years, and he is sort of seamlessly transitioned
to doing his thing at William and Mary and really
has them, you know, has had them playing great ball
really since the second that he stepped on campus. And
I mentioned this maybe a week or two ago, Brian
Earle in his first year, I think they really started
to fizzle out down the stretch last year. And that's
something that happened to some of his younger Cornell teams.
And I guess when I say younger, I mean guys
in the first and second year in his program. Because
Brian Old the style he plays ROB is so demanding
that his teams have fizzled out in February at times. Right,
It's just such a grueling pace. Guys are not conditioned
enough to play his style and they fizzle out. With
that being said, it's January fifth. Okay, there's been a
relative lull for a lot of these teams in college basketball,
so I don't see any fatigue being a real issue
in early January. And then on the Charleston side, I've
really struggled to make an accurate number for Charleston because
of how many injuries they've had to deal with so
far this year. So Garth, I'm with you. I lean
William and Mary as well have not gotten to the
window with it yet, but the tribe certainly make a
lot of sense. Rob talk to me William and Mary Charleston.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that we have to grade Charleston with
Hickman and Dougan. Right, it's been a couple of games
now since they're back, and all of a sudden, when
you go through pace numbers, possession numbers of game, the
full group, Charleston is back to playing faster. You got
a pair of it. Even against Drexel, they're up in
the seventies in possessions in that game, and excuse me,
against the Eline there were seventy four Drexel sixty three,
but seventy two points against Drexel, which indicates to me,
Adam that Charleston's ready to get back to a little
bit of pace. I kind of disregard the overall adjusted
offensive tempo here because now that you're full, it looks
like your team as whole, It looks like they're getting
back to what they kind of do best, and it
fits in William and Mary's wheelhouse. As you mentioned, Brian Earl,
they're seven right now in adjusted offensive tempo, but number
one in the country the fastest quickest length to possession going.
I've used William Mary a couple of times just isolating
team total. Wouldn't be afraid to do that here as well.
I think their number is eighty one and a half.
This could end up being my leg of the parlay.
I'll hang on to this for a second, but I
just feel like this game is going to go up
and down. Money has come toward the over here. Fifty
nine nine and a half opener now one sixty four,
one sixty four and a half. So people recognizing that
it's two teams that kind of want to do the
same thing, get up and down the flot. The one
bad thing for Charleston is their three point shooting has
been miserable. You wonder if that'll ever turn. I mean
if to me, it feels like Charleston should probably have
some positive regression coming their way. As far as three
point shooting is concerned, however, William and Murray has been
playing very good three point defense for those couple of reasons.
I know Charleston has home floor, I know they can score.
Speaker 3: I just think I trust the.
Speaker 2: Road team a little more with their offensive ability to
get over their total. The question would be why shy
away from the full game total and include everybody? And
for me, I think that would be my answer is
Charleston's yet to prove that they can hit from beyond
the arc. William and Mary, if they do have a
defensive asset, it is guarded beyond the arc.
Speaker 3: So William and Mary has been good to me.
Speaker 2: As far as putting points up is concerned, I think
to get to eighty two in this game probably not
an issue. Like I said, I could end up being
my leg of the parlor because I really like the
way William and Erry plays offense and the pace that
they play. We have to believe there's gonna be enough
possessions in this game, Adam to get enough scoring opportunities
to get to where I want to go if I
wind up on William and Mary team total over.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if I'm going off memory here, but
I want to say, William and Mary last year at
one point really like laid it on Charleston and scored
a whole bunch of points and it was one of
their sort of signature wins from last year. I probably
should have looked that up before we got on the show.
I didn't know, of course, Like you know, we do
the show, we kind of come in and we ever
really know where it's going to go, So I didn't
necessarily think we know what we would talk this game.
Speaker 2: I got it for you here real quick, Adam, just
to make your point correct here, William and Mary at
home Charleston ninety to seventy five last year, Yeah, was
their only but they cost scored ninety on him.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was a It was a it was like
a kind of like a blowout. Because remember, of course,
last year's Charleston team probably better than this year. I
know that that they were. They were probably starting to
you know, tail off a little bit, of course, in
the wake of Pat Kelsey going to Louisville. But I
do remember William and Mary having the pretty much doing
what they wanted offensively in that game. You talked about
the guys that were that have come back recently, Connor
Hickman sort of probably being the more important of the two.
Kobe Duggan on paper, should help a lot. He just
I don't really feel like he did a whole lot
in his first two games back, you know, played thirty minutes.
He wasn't like a super efficient, you know, kind of contributor.
But the guy that that, to me is the big,
big loss and probably speaks to you, you know, just
you liking the over and Charleston's defense has really suffered
as mister Dean he's been out the majority of the year,
I believe, only played the first three games and is
done for the season. And I think he's the reason
that Charleston's defense is much worse than projected. Would have
easily been their best defensive guard, probably the best defensive
player on their team. So again, I'm kind of with you.
I lean towards the William and Mary side. I'm not
confident enough right now in my rating on Charleston, especially
with a couple of guys back in the mix. My
gut says don't don't bunt the number that much just
because those two guys are back. Got to see a
little bit first. But again, I think this is one
of the I think the other day I said, I've
got like five teams that I'm just not really sure
what to do with at this point. And Charleston is
one of those five teams because of the name recognition
on the front of the jersey, always being sort of
over overvalued because they've been so good in this league
for so long, the injuries, they're a really tough team
to get a grasp with. But Garth, if you pin
me down to answer your question, I'm with you. I
leaned toward the tribe as well, and that that Rob
is just because I'm a I'm a Brian ear Old guy.
I've I love that guy when he's he was up
here at Cornell and I'm I even said when he
got the William and Mary John to Steve Merrill, I
was like, you guys got a really good one with
Brian Earl, Like he will have you in the mix
in the coastal sooner than later. And that's what he's
done to this point. So yeah, interesting game, Garth. If
you do go with William and Mary good luck and
we can circle back. We can circle back with with
the total at the end of the show like we
always do, uh where we will be locking in parlay. No, No,
we did not fire Brian Power. BP is still welcome
on the show anytime he wants to come on. BP
just ended up kind of being the main football content
guy over the last few weeks. So he's been doing
a lot of college football, NFL and and guys, believe
it or not, it takes a lot of time and
preparation to come on and do a show like this
where you just you know, rap and fire some random
game you know from some small conference, and you know,
we come on here and talk about it. So we
kind of just let him go do his thing. But no,
BP's always welcome to drop in. He literally has the
ability to log in and do that whenever he wants.
He might be listening at home and he might be like, hey,
I want to pop in right now. So No, we
love Brian Power. We did not fire him. He's welcome back,
welcome back anytime. We'll get into some of the other
chat questions. I will say this again, though, Rob, did
I see that you have a play in the FCS
Championship game tonight. Do you want to talk about that
for a minute.
Speaker 3: I do. It's actually a best bed play.
Speaker 2: And you know, a lot of guys don't cover the FCS,
but I've been covering it now for about four years.
And you got a good matchup tonight, Cinderella's story with
Illinois State, a team that really was lucky to get
in to the playoff picture and then has rattled off
four straight wins. And you've got a team returning to
the championship game after losing it last year in Montana State.
Price tag on that game, I think Montana State ten
and a pretty fair total of fifty six and a half.
And the game has moved used to be played in Frisco,
Texas for years and years now it's being played in Nashville,
Tennessee here tonight on Dandy's home field. For those you know,
for those who don't check out FCS football, give it
a look tonight. These upper tier teams are really, really good.
And I was looking at him real quick here and
there's about I don't know, just at a quick glance,
I saw about two dozen FCS guys from the Missouri
Valley Conference and the Big Sky already in the transfer
portal to go to FBS, and you saw those guys
take hold. In fact, the quarterback for Iowa this year
Mark Gronowski, South Dakota State quarterback. So bottom line here,
I do have a good feel for this game. The
play is up and available at wager talk dot com.
I'm six and two in the FCS playoffs so far
seventy five percent. So we're looking to close it out
at seven and two with a big play here tonight.
You can check it out wagertalk dot com on my
home pagewt dot buzz slash RV.
Speaker 1: That's too bad it's still not in Frisco. I'm in Frisco,
Texas right now. That's where I've got some friends and
so I came down to visit some friends and family
this weekend. I'm actually that that's where they live, is Frisco, Texas,
So that is that is currently where I am. And
I got to say, you know, you talked about Illinois
State Cinderella, much to the dismay of my buddies over
at Tarleton State. I think they felt like this was
this that was their spot. Forget. I think Villanova upset
them to sort of open up the door for Illinois
State to be in this game. But yeah, they the
Charlton State guys followed them closely this season and was
rooting for them, and I feel like if you ask
around Stephenville, they probably feel like this, this should be
them in that game tonight. So they just but yeah,
they just hired a new offensive coordinator. He was at
the game on Saturday. So Charlton State Athletics alive and well,
that place is awesome. They are like doing an incredible
job with their facilities. Would not be surprised if they
were an FBS football team within the very near future.
If a conference can find a spot for them, I
think they're going to end up in the FBS. All right. Yeah,
So if you're into football, there's there's limited college football
the rest of the year. Checkout robs is it a
five percenter tonight.
Speaker 3: Best bet?
Speaker 2: And ironically, Adam I have mentioned six and two in
the FCS playoffs. One of the two was Tarleton State
late eleven and a half against Vildanova got off to
a fourteen to nothing lead within the first three minutes
and thought, Wow, this one's gonna look pretty easy and
then their defense got picked apart a little bit by
Nova that day. But certainly a really good team and
a good offensive football team for sure.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it'll be fun to watch, interested to see how it,
you know, translates to the new venue in Nashville. Believe
it's Vanderbilt Stadium. A little a little too bad that
it's I guess on a Monday, but no Monday night football,
so they kind of have the the grand stage, if
you will. Should be a great game. And if you're
into that, check Rob's playout and yeah, let's uh, we'll
get back to hoop. You can also check check us
out any three days we've got that package up myself
and Rob all the college who plays that we release
in that time period. But back to back to baskets here.
I think our buddy Keith Bayou Betts Landry went and
saw one of these teams this weekend. So Steven f
Austin the Lumberjacks twelve and two, Rob off to a
great start. They're headed to McNeice to play McNeese State.
Obviously the the odds on favorite to win this league.
I think I think our guide by you went to
Steven went to Steven F. Austin's game on Saturday at
South Louist Southeast Louisiana, where they won seventy three to
sixty three. Rob You, you know, we talked about McNee State
a lot, and I feel like you have a better
beat on this team than I do, so I'll let
you kick it off, but I want to point out
the travel here.
Speaker 3: Steven F.
Speaker 1: Austin has been on the road for a while. They
had the Texas East Texas Louisiana swing last week, going
to East Texas A and M and then down to
Northwestern State, and then the Lumberjacks had to head back
to the state of Louisiana this week for two more
road games. So not exactly the easiest sort of spot
to draw, easily the best team in the league in
McNee State on their home floor where they've been virtually
unstoppable the last couple of years. So, Steven F. Austin,
do they have a shot in McNeese tonight?
Speaker 2: Well, if you want to, a lot of guys won't
stand in front of it. Locomotive Adam and right now
points spread wise, just from betting term, Steven F. Austin,
is that locomotive seven and oh there should be six
and oh seven and one against the spread in their
last eight games, seven and oh straight up in their
last seven. So they're playing great basketball at this point
in time. And my first inclination when I look at
this line is it would probably be a defensive battle
in this contest and points worth taking in that particular instance,
Stephen F. Austin travel aside probably in my estimation, enough
offense to slip in under a number. When you look
at McNeice results so far this year, and we have
talked about him quite a bit, we'll wade handed it over.
It's not the same program that created the type of
separation in scoreboard on the scoreboard as.
Speaker 3: They did last year.
Speaker 2: You know, McNeese State could hold you to forty eight
and get the seventy eight. It was not that difficult
for them last year in this league. This year a
little bit more of a winning games, but not quite
with that type of authority. Ten twelve fourteen in that
type of mix blasted East Texas A and M. They're
supposed to do that, But I could see a close,
hard fought defensive confrontation here. Totals come down forty four
to forty two and a half, which kind of I
see some one forty three's out there as well, kind
of goes along with my.
Speaker 3: Perception of the game.
Speaker 2: However, the money has come in on McNeice, up from
nine and a half now to ten and a half.
They are the best team in the league. I think
the only reason for me. I think it's more style
and strength of team, which lies on defense on both sides.
I think that's probably why I feel like ten and
a half is a lot of points in this game.
Speaker 3: Stephen F. Auston's put up some really good numbers this year.
I don't think they can be ignored.
Speaker 2: So if I was going to play at him, the
home team is the better team. But I just think
ten and a half might be a little too much
at this point.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I will. I will backtrack to I sort
of hashed it out ahead of the Internet Word game
and then the Houston Baptist game. I have a very
specific angle. I'm trying to play with McNeice in conference
play that's now too and zero. But it also it
relies on them. It's it's it's McNeice on the road,
which they've been. They've been on a nice string of
home games here. So even though Stephen F. Austin is
one of the teams I had circled to play against McNeice,
i'd prefer to do that on the road. I'm not
saying that I I didn't consider it a little bit here,
but man, if you look at McNeese splits, you know
their home road splits. I mean, this team is just
deadly in Lake Charles, Louisiana. They're they're really tough to
beat at home. And yes, you're getting a you know,
you're you're getting a healthy number with Stephen F. Austin,
but still they they've been able to really like pull
away from some of these teams. Now, Stephen F. Austin,
I I think at this point I'm comfortable calling them
the second best team in this league. I think it's
like pretty clear McNeice, Steven F. Austin. There were some
other teams that I thought could get up in the mix,
but the more I watch them, the more I think
that they're the clear too. The other thing that's tough here,
so Steven F. Austin's best player as a guy that
I thought was going to be a star at UMass
for Frank Martin Keon Thompson and he really just never
panned out for the minute men. But that's also just
a complete grease fire that's going on in Amherst, Mass.
They it's just a mess. They Ultimately they probably need
to go in a different direction. I don't think Frank
Martin is it. But we're not going to talk about
U Mass today. We're going to talk about Keon Thompson.
Ever since he's showed up in I think it's Nachadoches, Texas,
and I don't know I'm saying that correctly. He's been
arguably the best player on this roster this year, the
top scorer seventeen point six points per game. The tough
part for him in this matchup is he's going to
probably be blanketed by Garway Dull, former Providence guard who's
a great defender. Someone I was at the game when
Garwoy Dwell punched the kai on Kansas State in the
face down in Bahamas. It's my Garway Dwell. That's the
first thing every time I talk about him that comes
to mind. But yeah, McNeese can do a job defensively
on key On Thompson, and I kind of my gut
says the same thing as you rob hard thought defensive
battle that could end up being a McNeese thirteen point
win when it's all said and done, because I really
think they can, you know, hit the knockout punch, wipe
you out defensively, like last five minutes of the game.
I like the under here and on a day where
there's just not that much, you know, not that much
for me at least to love on this board, under
is a It might be a look for me here
in the parley, but like you, I think I'm gonna
see what else comes up and make that decision at
the end of the show.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting you bring up Thompson Adam because McNeese
for those who haven't seen them, basically on the defensive side,
they it's like a swarm almost. They want to force
you into turnovers. They're very, very good at taking the
ball away and so far this season analytics show you
that Stephen F. Austin Kean Thompson the point guard for
this team, they don't turn it over, so it to
be a real good.
Speaker 3: Match up there if.
Speaker 2: McNeice can't get those extra possessions that they generally get
caused by turnovers. Because Steven f Boston is protecting the
basketball we'll see. Probably not something I would get to
the window with, but the question was asked and my
thought process on it would be probably Steven at Boston
plus punch, although I wouldn't. I probably would agree with
Under in this game matter because when you said knockout
punch when you were going through your analysis, I'm thinking
to myself, you know, something like seventy three to sixty
is very possible in a game like this, and that
does end up on McNeice cover and Under. I would
put a little trust in South the Steven F. Austin side.
Speaker 1: I think the chat is poking fun at me, Rob
right now? Is it? It's not knock it docs? Is
that what it did? I I probably said it wrong. Listen,
come listen to me talk Korean baseball like I'll listen.
I'm gonna butcher names. This is not you know, I
didn't go to journalism school like I'm really just you know,
I'm just here to kind of be a degenerate and
talk sports betting with you guys. So you know it
is what it is. The the the app I say
Appalachian State wrong too, and they come for me every
time there's a clip of me talking about app is
it apple Lachin? I don't know anyway. I think Colin
Gregory is a Texas guy. That's probably why he's like,
you know, show some respect here. I get I get
it by you. Bet says nah, not a do chiss.
All right, we got, we get. We gotta move on
before there's like a clip of that like me trying
to say that, Like Maggie, it's rounds on on the internet.
So let's move on, different game. Let's go back to
the chat here we could. A couple of people asked
about this one. This is as you as you said here, Rob,
kind of in my you know, one of the few
that's up in my neck of the woods to many
of the teams that I typically get involved in quite
a bit. Uh, this is a very intriguing game, and
I feel like as a as a Pace totals guy,
you're gonna have an opinion here. So Columbia is headed
to Ithaca, New York to play the Cornell Big Red
Tonight IVY League play. I want I think this might
be the IVY League opener. I believe this is the
first IVY League game of the season. They did not
kick conference playoff last week or over the weekend. They
they play a little bit of a more watered down
conference slate, just fourteen conference games in the IVY eight
team league. Everyone plays each other twice. Only four go
to that IVY League tournament rob So every game in
the IVY is a big game. And yeah, Columbia heading
up to listen. I don't, I don't mind. It's Jocks.
I believe Jacks the the coach for Cornell. Now I don't,
I don't mind him, but I do think he might
be Like I think this might be the team version
of Cornell. I've said it a couple times, like they're
just not as clean and crisp as the Brian Earle teams.
They play the same way, but it's a little bit sloppier,
turn the ball over more, more lapses on defense. So
I I'm they're kind of a fade for me for
a team that can handle that, which I think Columbia
might be a team that can handle that style, that tempo.
Of course, of course, now Columbia uh their new head
coach Florida, former Florida Gators assistant. I think potentially doing
big things with that program. So this is an interesting one.
Curious to see if you're going anywhere with the total here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, they're gonna make you pay for it,
right if you like over. It's very hard to come
to a conclue illusion where.
Speaker 3: You like under.
Speaker 2: Between these two, we're gonna see three point bombs away,
we're gonna see two very good three point shooting teams.
Cornell of course breakneck pace, so you probably get the possessions.
But all that said, you have to get to one
seventy now, which is you know, eighty five. Aside, if
they played it even and the points spread here up
from one to two and a half tells you well,
probably need eighty nine, eighty three something, eighty seven eighty
one something in that vicinity. It's eighty seven eighty one
doesn't even get you there, but you get the point.
You need a lot here. Now that being said, it's
not against Cornell's religion to get up into the nineties,
that's for sure, And they've done it recently. They scored
ninety seven against Michigan State, for goodness sakes, So you
can get points from this team. I would think that
you know, Colombia has no shot at slowing down the
pace in this one, so they go with it Columbia.
All the metric suggest that Columbia is the slightly better
defensive team. Cornell plays little to no defense. It's just
it's sort of reminiscent again. And whenever I see a
team like this, I use the analogy or the comparison
to the nineteen ninety Loyola Merrimount team, and nobody will
ever be like that. But it's basically saying that Cornell's
going to score, and they really don't care if you score.
They just want to take it out of the bottom
of the net and get down and score again and
wind up being the highest point total on the scoreboards.
So it's difficult here to say under. They're making it
tough on me to bet over. It's obviously my initial reaction,
and I still think it'll probably get there, Adam, to
tell you the truth, I still think you'll probably find
this game in the one to seventy somewhere. So for me,
it would be a void's side, although the money hasn't.
The money's been on Cornell here, and I would probably
look towards total, which continues to rise. And I'm looking
right now live and I see couple of one seventies
out there. Once again, it's that ten eleven am block
ten to eleven am block eastern time in the morning
where these lines move. If you like over, you better
just bet it now because to five o'clock eastern start.
By that time, it'll probably be one seventy two and
a half total. So if you like, you get the
best of the number right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, listen, Colombia. If Colombia does not want
to probably play a game that goes over, right, Like Columbia,
if their path to victory here is going to probably
be to slow this game down, try to You know,
they've got they've got some solid front court players on
this roster that can absolutely score on Cornell if they
can slow If they can slow the game down and
turn it into like more of a half court game.
They've got guys that can execute and score against Cornell
who I've not really been impressed with defensively. So just
because it's not a track meet does not mean this
one still can't get over, because even if Columbia does
slow it down, they might be efficient enough to score
enough points to push this one over.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Like for me here again, I've talked about this a
lot this year. I've really am looking to kind of
play against this Cornell team when there's when there's a
team that's not going to get totally sort of like
baffled by the crazy style they want to play. My
gut says that Columbia is well coached enough to not
fall into the traps that are like that Cornell, that
Cornell can can sort of set against like either a
far weaker competition or like b the last time Cornell played,
I believe a game that we could bet on because
I think they had a non D one opponent mixed
in there. You know, a team like a Michigan State
where yeah, they're probably not going to win that game,
but against the spread they can cover because you know
they'll just their style is like good enough to I
think they got to like ninety something, gave up one
for team. I think it was like ninety seven to
one fourteen. So I think if Cornell can slow this
game down, get the ball inside a little bit, they're
probably going to score. That's the thing. You can beat
Cornell at the rim pretty easily with you know, with size.
I just think that like the Cornell teams that have
been in this league the last few years are just
better than this one. And so again they're I'm gonna
put this. This will be my parlay leg. I may
add this for clients as well. I was hoping to
get three, but these are the types of games I've
been looking for closer to a pick where I just
where I just really am asking the better team to
win the game. In this case, we're actually getting two
and a half points. I think that's kind of you know,
at least MGM and some of the other books still
have two and a half. I think I see some
going to two. So really just need what I consider
to be the better team to win Ithaca on a Monday.
With the amount of snow they've gotten kids there, I'm
not giving Cornell much of it. A bump for home court.
Be surprised if Columbia even gets to the school at
this point the way it's snowing in that part of
the in that part of the country. But yeah, this
is gonna be by parlay leg and a very likely
of client play for me as well. I just think
Columbia is the better team and if they can play
their game, get Cornell out of the way. They want
to play. They should kind of win this one without
much issue. I think, so Colombia plus two and a
half parlay leg and a very likely going to the
client card.
Speaker 2: Last thing I said on that one, Adam go ahead,
is that I always like to find a comp game,
a comparison game, and for Colombia that comp game. And
this is for totals better. This is not for five betters,
but for totals betters. Just a couple of games ago,
Columbia went down and played North Florida, which stylistically is
very much like Cornell rapid pace. They don't shoot anywhere
near as good as Coronell, but they play that style.
Game landed on seventy two. For those of you considering
over and out of cornell six losses this year, five
of the losses went over the total. So if you're
on the Columbia side and you're a big parlay guy,
Colombia and over could be a way to go. But Cornell,
even in losing efforts, they get themselves up and over
the totals, So we'll see how that goes. That's mainly
for totals betters here as we talk at one sixty
nine and a half, one seventy current price.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I caught some of that game. You know,
I kind of leaned toward Colombia in that game that
the number was was quite big. That was a you know,
ultimately what kept me off is it is sort of
avoiding like personally avoiding either these big underdogs or these
big you know, try having to go and like lay
a big number like on the road. And yeah, so
I you know, was correct to just kind of stay
off of that one because Columbia didn't cover. But I
felt like they were just sort of in like Christmas
break mode, a little bit not really fully focused. Gonna
be focused here again. Top four teams get into the
IVY League tournament. It is a battle. There's a lot
of parody in this league. Yale is very likely going
to run away with it and grab that top spot.
But these are huge games for two, three, and four
to get in your conference tournament. And because it's only
a four team tournament, you get in you only have
to win two games to get to the NCAA tournament.
So yeah, I think I've this was on my short
list on a short slate today, Rob and I have
fully talked myself into this one. So Columbia plus two
and a half will be a play for me. And again,
I just I'm banking on the on the Lion slowing
it down and making Cornell kind of execute a little
bit in a slower game. I think that is a
going to be an issue for the Big Red. So
this is an early tip and a best bet for me.
Columbia plus two and a half. Joey Cheese, Well, first
of all, so that you're late, Joey, and I'm glad
that you brought that up. Because this show not only
is it live, it's also on demand every day wager
Talk YouTube channel, you can catch the replay, So head
on over there. While you're over there, a like, a subscribe,
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in the algorithm, stay in the algorithm. So if you
can head on over and check out any part of
the replay and hit us with a little like and subscribe,
it's much appreciated. And Joey Cheese, because you are here
in person, I know you're a busy guy and we
appreciate you stopping in. We're more than happy to talk
Harvard basketball stay in the IVY League, rob Bino, they
take on Dartmouth. And so I'll set this up by saying,
like Harvard coming into the season, I kind of had
circled as the team that could really surprise in this league.
It was pretty well known that Yale would would be
the far and away odds on favorite to win this league.
But you know, with Princeton losing Xavi and Lee and
Caiden Pierce, Columbia having a new coach, Cornell not being
the same Cornell team they've been in years past, you know,
I just thought, I think two to up Brown being
down from what they've been the last couple of years.
Key on Lilly moving on. He was he was one
of the best players in this league last year. I
really feel like two to four is right there for
the taking wide open. And I felt like there was
no better team to put themselves back up in that
top four in the IVY than the Harvard Crimson. Tommy
Amicker's been in the league forever, he hasn't had a
good team in a while. I can't remember the last
time Harvard was even like in the top five, top four,
and even any good. I think they might have snuck
in one year as the four, but they really haven't
had a good team in years now at this point.
But last year they brought in a guy by the
name of Robert Hinton who's turned into one of the
best scorers in the conference. Leads the team fifteen point
nine points per game. I really liked sophomore Austin Hunt
he got hurt last year. Was at the game he
got hurt down at Navy talking to someone from Harvard
that was really, you know, no more than like thirty
minutes before he pulled his hamstring. A Harvard guy was
talking to at the game, was like talking about how
excited that they were about him. Hinton was getting all
the attention, and they really liked Austin Hunt. So he
lost a lot of his season last year coming back
from an injury, but he's starting to get in the
mix there. So with all that being said, I'm pretty
pro Harvard just in general. It's just they disappointed me
a little bit in the non conference. I thought there
would have been some better results. A lost to BEU
weren't competitive against the BC team. I thought they matched
up pretty good against losing the UMass. You know, just
just not the best non conslate for them. Conference play
starts here, we go back the last couple of weeks.
It is somewhat of a clean slate, Rob, So I
start to buy back in with Harvard. Now I think
they're a much better team than Dartmouth.
Speaker 3: Not myth.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And Dartmouth has shown us so far this season, Adam,
that they're really you know, I use this phrase a lot,
but they're kind of a one trick pony. They're a
team that wants to get up and down and shoot threes.
It's what they do best. Harvard doesn't necessarily or has
not necessarily defended the three overall this season. Again, overall
statistics at this point in time, with the non conference
schedules that these teams play, sometimes has to be taken
with a grain of salt. But I will say this, Harvard,
you know, far more methodical. And when they get an opponent,
you just go down there, Ledger, when they get opponents
who are average, below average, snails paced teams, their defense
locks down and you just go through these results and
you see that these teams can't score on them. Dartmouth
isn't really that. Dartmouth is a team that can score
and can make buckets won't defend on the other end
very well, And I just find some value here in
this total at one forty five. I feel that this
total is predicated on and it most likely is on
overall season results to this point, and not necessarily the
matchup that will take place here. Harvard's efficiency on the
offensive end, whether they go you know, whether they use
twenty seconds of the shot clock, whether they use twenty
five second of the shot clock, their efficiency on the
offensive end here should get them into the mid high
seventies here against this startmouth team. That being said, what's
required out of the other side at that point is
high sixties, maybe reach seventy. And Harvard's allowed that type
of point total to teams that are a little quicker,
to teams that are capable of scoring that. So I
think there's a slight edge toward the over in this
particular instance, just due to matchup. I won't probably won't
play it because I think the wiggle room here is
very very little. At one, you're asked to get.
Speaker 3: Seven and a half.
Speaker 2: Let's just use the score here probably somewhere into seventy
seven sixty nine range, which I think is possible. But
like I say, there's not a lot of wiggle room
with that because Harvard generally won't get you into the
eighties and Dartmouth is going up against a little bit
better defense here. So I would have a slight lean
toward over in that one at.
Speaker 1: ROB, I think that's probably the better way to play
this game. I'll go back to Dartmouth's last couple games.
So I had a nice cover with Dartmouth. About a
week ago, I took the thirty six and a half
against Florida, and a big reason I played Dartmouth well,
the number was, in my opinion, obnoxious. Thirty six and
a half probably should have been eight points lower than that,
and it really never came close to that. But you know, Florida,
I figured Florida, especially as the game started to get
out of reach, would would kind of give up the
three a little bit. It's something they've done most of
the season. And that's exactly how Dartmouth was able to
stay within that number that got up to that got
up to thirty like relatively quickly. And then as soon
as Florida started kind of just letting them shoot an
open three here and there, Dartmouth hit a whole bunch
of threes and ended up keeping the game. You know,
the last ten to fifteen minutes of the game were
very competitive. Dartmouth twelve or twenty seven from three point landing. Yes,
this is a good three point shooting team. The problem
and what makes it difficult in my opinion, to bet
a side in this game is when Dartmouth does not
shoot the ball particularly well, you get a result like
the State Sacred Heart game where they lost by twenty
two in a game that they were like a one
point favorite. You know, many would would say maybe they're
they're well, they're at least on par with Sacred Heart
and that game was never close. Go back to the
game prior to that same thing. Their Holy Cross and
Dartmouth are are relative equals. I would say fourteen for
twenty four from three, and Dartmouth won the game eighty
nine to sixty four. So from a it really makes
the side challenging, especially when you're talking about laying points
against Dartmouth, because of course, you know, in this instance,
not only do you need to win with Harvard, you
need to cover the six and a half, which is
now seven and a half. So yeah, I'm kind of
with you.
Speaker 3: Rob.
Speaker 1: I think if I was gonna play this one, I
would just hope that, you know, Dartmouth hope it's a
good enough shooting performance. But again, I think you have
to like the fact that if Harvard opens this game up,
which the books kind of suggest they might with this number,
that you might get the the barrage of threes late.
You know, it's a ten point game. Harvard sort of
starts to feel good about themselves, and then suddenly Dartmouth
hits a few threes to make it close and all
the wild and then maybe you get extension. All those
things kind of add up to I think the over
being the look here, and you jogged my memory a
little bit because that game against Sacred Heart, I think
that was the that was Kid's death.
Speaker 3: Exactly.
Speaker 2: I think we had that game that that day. Yeah,
held six to seven game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and by you said, you know, we kind of
kind of talk about that game quite a bit that day.
By You said, you know, Sacred Heart they just bullied,
you know, bully them, out match them, and Dartmouth gave
up at the end. That's the tricky part here, because
when when you go down twenty and at eleven am
to a team like Sacred Heart, like I you know,
I could understand giving up. I find it less likely
that Dartmouth would just roll over in a conference opener
if they're only down like twelve or thirteen, Like you know,
it's it's easy to wave the white flag down twenty
in the second half. I'd be kind of surprised if
Harvard can open it up to that extent, right Like,
and so you stay in that ten to twelve point range,
I think, I think there's a lot of chance for
points late here. So might even be a good one, Rob,
to take a look at a second half over if
the first half plays out a little low. All right, Rob,
I'm gonna go to you. We got about ten minutes left.
I've locked in my parlay league with the Columbia Alliance.
Do you have an idea of a game you want
to go to here to close it out?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 2: I think as I scanned over this whole thing, Adam
and I came close, and maybe we'll hit on USC
Michigan State after I'm done here. But I don't see
anything really that I like more than what I talked
about earlier with William and Mary going over eighty.
Speaker 1: All right, So that's rob let's do let's do this.
Let's let's go to that because that's kind of the
other big game. I wanted to talk about that game too,
since since you we've already talked about your game, we'll
recap it at the end. Let's hit USC Michigan State.
I was wrong about USC on Friday. I thought it
was too many. It clearly was not. It has me
questioning my number on USC a little bit. So my
gut said too many again here, but didn't really want
to get involved after seeing what I saw on Friday.
So yeah, talk to me about this game USC, Michigan State.
Are you looking team total over again here?
Speaker 2: Well, on the other side of that, Adam, you didn't
like what you saw out of USC, and I think
we talked a lot about situational with Ohio State welcoming
in Nebraska. Maybe Nebraska is in the letdown spot. Michigan
State's the team that lost that game, and now they're
home in East Lansing and USC's hung around Michigan for
a while. It's hard to not think that Michigan State's
gonna do a lot of damage to USC again. What
we saw defensively there real quick here, in that game
against Michigan, and I did have USC team total over
seventy four and a half. I don't think they got
to seventy. I think they got the sixty nine as
their final score. In that case, it might have been
sixty eight. But USC actually, whether Michigan didn't shoot it
well or whether they played three point defense, well, Michigan
did not shoot threes very well at all in that game,
but what they did was make about seventy two percent
of their twos. And if you can be beaten inside, now,
Michigan's are pretty good inside the arc team. It's where
Michigan State kind of makes their living every year inside
the arc. So that's a little bit discouraging if you're
a USC, a lawnmower, a USC fan, because I think
Michigan State will have their way at the rim or
in the paint in this particular game offensively. All that said,
Eric Musselman's team just never got out of the funk
that they were in shooting the basketball in that game.
And I went back and looked a little bit when
Michigan State's home in East Lansing, I wish I had
splits home road, splits of pace tempo, but Michigan State's
unafraid to run at home.
Speaker 3: They don't do it as much on the road.
Speaker 2: They take their defense and their methodical stuff on the
road because that travels, but at home they're not afraid
to get up and down with you. And I get
the feeling that this number, which has now been bet
up one forty eight and a half up to one
fifty and a half one fifty one and a half
in some locales, I.
Speaker 3: Have a feeling that money's right here.
Speaker 2: USC, from what I saw, probably won't be able to
defend Michigan State, but on that for the same token,
I think USC is going to have a bounce back
offensive game here. Michigan State's not the easiest defense to
do it against. And I'm not saying that USC is
going to go for ninety, but they'll probably go for
more than sixty nine.
Speaker 3: I think the game gets.
Speaker 2: A little bit quick, and Michigan State probably your winner.
I think I would look over in that contest. Again,
they're taking a lot of the wiggle room out of
this game. Now, one forty eight and a half certainly
looks a lot better than one fifty and a half.
But still I think Michigan State's tendency is to go
ahead and play higher scoring, faster paced games at home,
especially when they're favored and they can have their way,
So that that's kind of the way I look.
Speaker 3: At this one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I you know, gave out USC as the parlay
leg on Friday, and as the day went on, I well,
I was kind of I guess right at the time
of the show, I think we got like twenty three.
It got knocked down to like twenty one and a half,
but I don't know, I had like I just couldn't
get there. Something told me like, just don't take a
worse number, don't just don't do it right like and
and that ended up being the right move as Michigan
sort of ran that up. I numbers wise, again, I
was at I think I was at like eight and
a half or nine here. I have like six papers
on the desk, and of course don't know where that
one is. Couldn't be less organized, rob, Yeah, I was
at I was actually at seven and a half here
for Michigan State. So again my number for the second
game in a row is showing quite a bit of
line value on USC. But the question I'd like to know,
is is USC staying in town until Friday to play Minnesota? Like,
would they go all the way back to southern cal
just to come back and play a Friday Big ten
road game up in Minnesota. Because if they're not, that's
that's a long week, right, Like they played Friday night
in ann Arbor. Obviously they hung around to play this
game in East Lansing. I'd be somewhat surprised if they
travel all the way back to southern California just to
turn around and travel all the way back to Minneapolis.
So you know the mentality of like, you know, kind
of knowing you're away from home for you know, eight days,
and of course it's not like it's this isn't eight
days in you know, Palm Springs, right, It's it's northern
it's Michigan, it's Minnesota in the middle of winter. That
that can be soul crushing a little bit. You know,
it's just again and because of that, I think, you know,
you talk about Michigan State losing on Friday in the
manner that they lost the bounce back spot for them,
and just having been up to East Lansing a couple
of times, sort of knowing that they can run it
up at home. I think I'm like going to pass
on USC, even though once again that twelve that was
hanging out there about an hour ago was very tempting,
because I think USC has the athletes, and I do
think that they're probably a little undervalued by the books.
But I may have to revisit that when they're back
at home, hopefully even more undervalued than they are right now.
Speaker 2: I'm going to give you a real quick quote on
what you were talking about from Eric Musselman.
Speaker 3: I just found it here.
Speaker 2: This is Eric Musselman calling this a gauntlet of a
three game Midwest road swing. He said, I don't know
if anybody's prepared in the country for this trip. Musselman said,
we're going to be on the road longer than a
lot of NBA teams when they go on the East
Coast trip, and that's coming right out of Christmas break,
so that would suggest they're staying there at them And
he's not kind of thrilled about the Big ten schedule
maker throwing them up there in the in the in
the north top of the country for as long as
they're gonna have to be there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it'll be it'll be interesting to see how that
plays out, and then of course, you know, sort of
to see what we can take from that in the
Friday's game with Minnesota, which would eat which would be
the easily the best chance for USC to get a
win on this this swing, So that'll be interesting. Joey
Cheese says, Rob breaks down totals like nobody in the business.
Is quite amazing. I very much agree. Joey Chees's phenomenal handicapper.
But the way that you sort of find your way
in with totals is very impressive, and we try to
hit as many on the show as we can. If
you like what you're seeing on the show, give our
our three day package a try. It is basically the
exact same thing that you're getting on the show, except
it's what we actually play and you don't have to
listen to me talk. You can just read, so that's
a huge plus as well. But Rob, I'm gonna give
him the floor. We are already talked about the game,
but Rob, can you clarify for the viewers what you
want to close the parlay out with.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're going to close it out with the William
and Mary team Total Adam, which right now sits at
eighty one and a half for really a one ten
one ten deal. So no juice to speak of here,
but we're gonna look for William and Mary to get
to eighty two in this game against College of Charleston.
If you need to hear why it is earlier in
the show, I know that it'll be time stamped and
you can go back and watch it. But William and
Mary team total up and over eighty one and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can assure you if those time stamps are
not done, like very shortly after the show, I'll be
hearing from Kelly Stewart, so it will be time stamped. Yeah,
they will be in there very soon after the show,
and that'll close out the show and I'll recap the
parlay again. Rob even with me ruining Fridays still plus
three sixteen Stone Cold Steve Austin plus three sixteen units
on the season. Love to see that it's in the play.
US plus two sixty today is the odds for the
two teamer. We've got Columbia plus two and a half
for me and then Robino going with William and Mary
over eighty one and a half. That's a team total
and that's your two team, hopefully winner. There's a pleasure
as always. We'll see you guys again tomorrow ten am
Eastern More Full Court Press. Have a great day, everybody,